Sunday's NCAA Tournament Round Two Picks, and the G.O.A.T.

What can you say?  With all the buzzer-beaters and OT-thrillers, without a doubt my favorite shot of the NCAA Tournament was delivered by Ali Faroqhmanesh of Northern Iowa.  With the Panthers looking seriously like they were about the throw away an epic upset-bid, they finally "broke" the press (more like "inbounded the ball")  Ali held the ball of the right three point arc, the only man for No. Iowa on that side of the floor with three Kansas defenders back.  This is where you hold the ball, wait to be fouled.  Hit your free throws, hope Kansas missed on their end and grind the last, torturing second out of the game.

Faroqhmanesh had a different idea, and why I love this shot, you can see both ideas on his face.  He thinks about taking the shot, almost looks around, then hesitates.  And in a split-second you can see him (correctly) assess the situation, realize his team's best chance was for him to stick the high-wire three, put them up four, and GRAB the upset win by the throat.

And that's exactly what Ali did, and that, as least for now to the Maniac, makes Ali the Greatest Of All Time!!  Ok, a little much.  But perhaps my favorite non-buzzer beater in tourney history.

With one mighty shot from Ali, down goes Frazier!  Er...Kansas.

Let's see what might be on tap today as the Maniac continues to pick every game in the tourney against the spread.  (23-17 entering today)

Gonzaga +7 v. Syracuse -- Onawaku is still out, which leaves the 'Cuse depending on a seven foot freshman, and some kind whistles.  They play a famously thin rotation, losing one of your seven guys, and only premier big, is a problem.  Just the kind of problem the Zags can exploit with Robert Sacre and Elias Harris.  I feel like I have written this the past eight years in my tourney column, but I feel as comfortable with the ball in the hands of Matt Boldin as I do with any other player in the country.  Not sure the Zags win straight-up (though I definitely have the Cuse on upset alert) but I like them with the seven for sure.

Georgia Tech +7 v Ohio State -- If the Buckeyes can stay focused, this tournament opened up really well for them to return to the Final Four for the third time in ten years and second in four.  However, the Buckeyes haven't blown out a lot of teams, and Georgia Tech certainly has the talent to play with any team in the country when they play well.  I like Ohio State, and don't think they'll need theatrics to accomplish it, but not sure I'm willing to lay seven.

Michigan State +1 v. Maryland  -- Nothing a feel better about than betting on Tom Izzo in March.  This game is a true and honest toss-up, so when in doubt, play the tourney odds.  Plus, Kalin Lucas looked fantastic in round one and seems to have a knack for big moments.

Missouri v. West Virginia -6 -- This line feels way to small.  West Virginia is more than equipped to counter the frenetic style that Mizzou will throw at them.  It really feels like the 'Eers and Kentucky might be on a collision course for a classic.  Gimme WVU, lay the points.  This is probably my favorite game of the day.

Cornell +5 v. Wisconsin -- Wisconsin's claim to fame is knocking off unsuspecting foes in the tournament with their plodding, slow-down, methodical style.  Um, that won't work against Cornell.  In fact, it plays right into their wheelhouse.  I like Cornell straight-up, but will take the five gladly.

Xavier (PICK) v. Pitt -- Hard to believe, but this is the first pick-em of the NCAA Tournament, and it is bestowed upon the Maniac's Muskies.  I've yapped that Pitt is overrated most of the season (and most of last..and the year before...).  Well, if I'm wrong, it seems like a lot of you will be able to throw it in my face.  Give me X and Jordan Crawford getting a little revenge for last year's Sweet Sixteen ouster.

Texas A&M v. Purdue +2.5 -- Boiler Up!  I'm staying on board until they meet the Dukies next week.  JuJuan Johnson and E'Twaun made the Maniac look smart against Siena, here's betting they do it again against Aggies, surprisingly only the third Big 12 team remaining...

Cal v. Duke -6 -- Cal has played well of late, and Washington's blistering run makes one at least pause for a second in regard to quickly dismissing the Pac 10.  However, Duke is a whole different animal than the erratic Louisville Cards.  The Dukies won't no-show today, and I'm not sure Cal has the ammo to hang around.  Give me the Devils easy.

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Saturday's NCAA Tournament Round Two Picks

At 19-13 against the spread, the Maniac is rueing the fact that his dream of living in a Bahamian sports book during the entire NCAA Tournament seems more and more like a good idea.  Seriously, someone tell my wife this is way better than a 401(k)...

OK,  let's continue onward with Saturday's picks.

St Mary's +5 v. Villanova:   This matchup is very, very similar to the Richmond one for the Gaels.  Obviously Scottie Reynolds and the Villanova backcourt is a slight upgrade, but the fact remains they have no semblance of an inside presence.  I think this bodes well for St. Mary's, who is coincidentally on fire.  If they can get some offense from Dellavadova, I like St. Mary's to pull the upset.

Murray St v. Butler -5:  It's funny, but I'm not sure Butler caught a break when the Racers toppled Vandy in a round one buzzer-beater.  However, I'm going to stick with my "Butler can get to the Final Four" belief and trust they will handle their business today.  One odd plus in the Bulldogs favor, they will NOT overlook Murray State.  The Racers are very similar to some of the teams the face in the Horizon (very, very similar stylistically to 2008-09 Cleveland State).

Ohio +8 v. Tennessee:  I think the Vols win, but Ohio can push tempo enough to get some buckets in transition.  It is perversly ironic that Armon Bassett can make a true national name for himself today after being booted off the Indiana Hooisers two years ago for a litany of off-court issues against the team that was the 2010 poster child for off-the-court problems.

Northern Iowa v. Kansas -11.5:  Rock CHALK.  I like Northern Iowa, but just don't think they have near the quickness, quality size or depth to make the Jayhawks sweat.

Old Dominion v. Baylor -5:  I continue to maintain that Baylor is one of the most talented teams in the country and a real Final Four sleeper team.  Old Dominion is one of the best defensive teams in the country, however unlike Notre Dame, Baylor has two guards who can create off the bounce, both for themselves and for teammates. 

Washington v. New Mexico +2:  I'm not willing to go absolute on this, but I have a sneaking suspicion this is the first time a #11 was a Vegas favorite over a #3 in the NCAA Tournament.  Someone with more freetime that me can look it up, in the meantime lets just agree it is certainly odd.  That said, surely that puts another log on the New Mexico fire.  They looked lethargic and avergae Thursday night.  I think they play better today and beat Washington in a hard fought game.  However much will hinge on whether or not the New Mexico forwards can contain Quincy Pondexter, as they don't have a true natural match for him defensively.

BYU v. Kansas State - 4.5:  BYU is a heck of a good basketball team and the Steve Nash comparison for Jimmer Fredette is a good one.  However Kansas State is very solid with Clemente and Pullen in the backcourt, and I think their length from the 3 & 4 spot can negate some of BYU's perimeter shooting.  BYU  will have to shoot exceptionally well to beat the Wildcats, gimme K-State laying the points.

Wake Forest v. Kentucky -9.5:  This is a great and interesting test for UK.  Wake actually matches up very, very well.  Ish Smith might be the only guard in the tourney as quick with the basketball as John Wall.  That matchup alone is worth tuning in for.  This game also features three LEGIT  NBA bigs, in DeMarcus Cousins, Pat Patterson and Farouq Al Aminu.  The key to this game?  Can McFarland stay out of foul trouble for the Deacons?  If not, they are going to be way to thin inside to contain the Cats.  I think the Big Blue is peaking at the right time, but I'm not wild about laying 10.  Tough pick, but gimme the Cats.

Day Two - Maniac's Picks

Man, what a great opening afternoon to the tourney.  Two games to OT, one one-pointer and another buzzer beater!  And I realize it is still a little early to gloat (halftime, Ohio leading by 12), but I can't say I haven't been warning you all about Georgetown (and Villanova...)

Morgan State v. West Virginia -17 -- yawner, gimme Huggy and the 'Eers.

Xavier -1 v. Minnesota -- Full disclosure, I am fully biased.  However, I really think X matches up well, both are big, both have athletic guards.  Xavier has Jordan Crawford and never, ever underperforms in the tourney.  I'm honestly surprised they are a near pick-'em, but Richmond's turd sandwich today does make you pause a little bit on the A-10.

Cornell v Temple -4 -- Sticking with the A-10.  Cornell is a nice ball club.  They remind me of Notre Dame football a few years ago; their signature moment of the season is an "almost" win.  The Red gave Kansas all they could handle in Phog, while Temple got their backside handed to them by the same Jayhawks.  That said, Temple should be at least a #3 seed in this tourney, and I think they come out playing like it.

Siena v. Purdue -4 -- Boiler Up!  Seriously, I'll put my neck out on this one.  Purdue will play better than anyone else thinks.  They;ve had a full week to adapt their offensive attack without Hummel.  They have one of the better bigs in the tourney in JuJuan Johnson, and one of the better scoring off-guards in E'Twaun Moore.  Purdue can't get to Indy, but they can get out of the first weekend.

Clemson -1.5 v. Missouri -- This game will breakneck fast and furious.  In the end, I like the Booker boys and Clemson in a fantastic game.

Oakland +11 v Pitt -- So far, so bad for the BEast.  Now enter traditional under-performer Pitt.  Gimme the Grizzlies of Oakland with the points in yet another Big East BIG scare.

Wofford +10 v. Wisconsin -- Gimme Wofford in a game that will be Waw-ful to watch.  The tempo alone of the Badgers make a 10-point cushion like getting 15 or 16. 

Utah State +3.5 v. TexasA&M -- The fact that they are both nicknamed "Aggies" is so over-reported it is beoming Hannah-Montana-like annoying.  However, it is a really intriguing game between a Big 12 big boy and the rare at-large entrant from the WAC.  The WAC was actually a higher rated conference RPI-wise than Conference USA and the WCC, which surprises most people.  Meaning, Utah State is actually pretty darn good.  I think they show it with their three point precision tomorrow.

Florida State v. Gonzaga +1.5 -- I still like this Gonzaga team and am surprised they fell all the way to an #8.  I thought they were 5/6 before the St. Mary's game, and perhaps the Gaels proved today, that loss wasn't nearly as bad as it seemed.  The Zags are battle-tested and steady at the point with Boldin.  Besides, FSU is another perennial tourney under-achiever.  I love the Zags straight-up but will gladly take the point.

Georgia Tech +1.5 v. Oklahoma State -- A real good game with some premier talent, like seemingly every game in the Kansas bracket.  Gani Lawal, Derrick Favors and James Anderson will provide some real fireworks, but Iman Shumpert is probably the key.  Tech is bigger and better inside, can  their point guard control the ball well enough to let the bigs wreck havoc?  I think they can. 

New Mexico St v Michigan St -12 -- Despite New Mexico's stunning drop all the way to the 12-line (joke - read two days ago's column), I love the Spartans.  Beware the Izz of March.  Isn't it becoming rote at this point to see Izzo and the Spartans outplay their seed?  Kalin Lucas is fully healthy and I like the Spartans to roll.

Arkansas Pine Bluff v. Duke -23 -- Dukies kill 'em.  Not even semi-quality television.

Vermont  v. Syracuse -16 -- Taylor Coppenrath ain't walkin' through that door!  Ah...now I know who my real college hoop fans are.  Only 16?  Seriously?  Gimme the Orange.  They'll miss Onawaku, but not tomorrow.

UC Santa Barbara v Ohio State -16.5 -- Sorry Rome, can't find any justification to take the Gauchos.  This is a nice opportunity for the Ohio State bench to play in the NCAA's, since they usually go only six deep.


Houston +9 v. Maryland -- Everyone's talking about Grevies Vasquez.  After tomorrow you'll know who Aubrey Coleman is.  Our loyal reader's remember him from our Mid-Season All-American team, I have a funny feeling the rest of the country might soon.  His numbers (26&7 as a guard) are jaw-dropping.  I'll take the nine, but also putting the Terps on official Maniac Upset-Watch.

Cal v. Louisville -1 -- This is a coin-flip; heads Edgar Sosa is great, tails he murders the Cards' season.  I'll go heads for tomorrow.





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Like Christmas Eve - A Maniac Thank You

By far the best analogy I heard all day came from a friend of mine describing the feeling tonight for "us."  And when I say "us" I mean you and me; the people who read and write this sort of drivel that is largely irrelevant to 99% of the population.  It is a culture shock here in Florida after our recent move.  Sports radio stations go out of there way to tell you what a niche sport college hoops is, and that other than these three weeks, no one cares...

So, for those of us giddy tonight on "Christmas Eve", a big huge THANK YOU from the Maniac.  I like to joke that we have 22 readers, and the truth is, I have no idea how many of you actually read on a daily (or annual...) basis.  I do know we registered nearly 7,000 hits this year, so a big thanks to Mom's itchy mouse finger, and to all of you out there following along.  It is honestly really cool to know you're out there, anticipating the bounty under tomorrow's tree, just like me.

I'd like to offer you a true and sincere, Happy Holidays.

Now onto the Madness:

Maniac's Day One Picks:

BYU - 4 v Florida:  I hope my "Florida should be in the NIT" bias doesn't cloud my judgment. On a neutral floor I just believe Jimmer Fredette and the Cougs are 10-12 points better.  I like BYU laying the points.

Notre Dame -2.5 v. Old Dominion:  The Irish are as hot as anyone in the country right now.  ODU is a really solid team, and I think they'd be in this field regardless of whether or not they won the underrated CAA Conference Tournament or not (they did).  ODU could get to the Sweet Sixteen, but they match-up really poorly with Notre Dame and really don't have an answer for Harangody.  I like Tory Jackson maintaining his recent senior surge into, dare I say, "smart game manager" and the Irish getting a date with Baylor in Round Two.

Robert Morris +18 v. Villanova:  I'm not worried about 'Nova...yet.  However, they strike me as an undersized, slumping team that is a prime candidate to let a team hang around for just long enough to get people a little jazzed...Gimme RM and the points.

Murray State +3.5 v. Vanderbilt:  OK, Vegas has confirmed my gut-feel that Murray State is a legit threat to pull off one of the more eye-opening upsets in round one.  I thought I'd get a few more points, but I honestly think Murray State has the tough blend of moxy and quickness that can give a more tempo-controlling team like the 'Dores fits.  Add in the fact that Vandy's record is slightly inflated due to their home-court dominance and this game has "upset" written all over it.  It may not be a game I'd advise touching in Vegas in terms of value (I'd think Murray would get 6-7), but I'm picking all 16 games, so gimme the Racers and the points.

North Texas v. Kansas State -16 - As long as it isn't the Jayhawks on the other bench, K-State is pretty solid.  Look for them to roll in the tourney debut in an unprecedentedly high seed.

Sam Houston State v. Baylor-11 -- I love the Bears as a real Final Four sleeper.  They haven't won a tourney game in over fifty years.  That draught will be all but over by halftime.  Gimme the Bears big.

St. Mary's v. Richmond -2 -- This is a real funky matchup, as St. Mary's will struggle with the quickness of Richmond's backcourt, while at the same time I don't think Richmond has an answer inside for Omar Samhan inside.  It really comes down to controlling tempo and knocking down shots...which is a tough thing to predict.  However, I really like Richmond as a true sleeper in the tournament, so I'll take the tough two-point lay early and roll with the Spiders.

Butler -2.5 v UTEP -- Everyone is so enamored with how Butler's Matt Howard can possibly contain Dereck Caracter they forgot to factor in how is UTEP going to control Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward?  Oh, and Butler hasn't lost in several months.  They've fared fine against upper echelon competition in Xavier and Ohio State (albeit without ET).  Not to get ahead of ourselves, but IF they Bulldogs can get past the Miners, they could go on a nice run.  They match up real well with Syracuse, should they get that far.  They have versatile bigs and good shooting guards who don't turn the ballover and avoid getting trapped...I'm just saying..

Northern Iowa +1 v. UNLV -- The 8/9 toss-up, I'll take the size and poise of the Panthers.  I like the MWC, but not sold on UNLV.  They are a little erratic offensivly, though Lon Kruger is a historically good tournament coach.  Hmmm... almost talked myself back into UNLV.  Nah, gimme the Panthers (hard hitting analysis, huh?)

ETSU v. Kentucky -20 -- GO Big Blue!  Kentucky plays poorly against poor teams and excels against the very good ones.  Against the great ones?  You could argue no one knows yet, seeing as I'm not sure anyone in the SEC fits the bill, and annual tests against Indiana, North Carolina and Louisville weren't the stern test they look like on paper.  Can Coach Cal convince them Round One is the appropriate time to turn on the full-time greatness?  I'm not sure, but I'll lay the twenty fairly comfortably.

Washington v. Marquette -1.5 -- Very quietly Washington has put together the pieces of a shattered season and looks closer to the team ranked #15th in the pre-season polls.    Marquette is undersized, underappreciated and pound-for-pound as tough as any team in the country.  I'll take the gutty Eagles in a great ballgame.


Ohio +13.5 v. Georgetown -- Ohio is pretty lightly regarded and coming out of the WAY down MAC as the upset-tourney champ.  So why are they only getting 13.5?  Call this a straight contrarian pick.  Sometimes when an unknown team is getting WAY too few points, someone knows something I don't. 

Kansas -26 v Lehigh -- Who cares right?  I'd never actually bet a 1/16 game, so for today's column I'll take the Hawks blowing 'em out and coasting to a comfy 30-something win.

Wake Forest v Texas -5 -- I know, Texas is awful.  But nine weeks ago they were #1 in the country.  It wouldn't be the first time (see: Arizona 2009) a talent-laden team got it together for one last week of fight.  This 8/9 game has more NBA'ers on display than any I can remember, and if I'm Kentucky I really would prefer Wake in Round Two...

Montana v New Mexico -9 -- Alford's Lobo's have to be sick of seeing all the mock brackets that have them bowing out in the first weekend.  I this one could be surpriingly easy for Darrington Hobson and crew. 

San Diego State +3.5 v. Tennessee -- I think the Aztecs second-chance points can be the undoing of Bruce Pearl and the Vols, particualrly if they can get Chism in any kind of foul trouble.  I'm surprised you can get 3 points and SDSU.  It's a good value pick at the very least.

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Rock! Chalk! Chalk?

I admit, I have probably watched more college hoops than most of your TV analysts, and certainly more than John Thompson (who on the CBS Radio bracket unveiling, reacted to New Mexico State's #12 seed with a perplexing, "I thought they might'a did better.  New Mexico is pretty good now"). Yes John, they are pretty good.  Like a #3 seed.  This team is a different team than that team.  But he is right, Ex-Zay-Vey-Er is always dangerous in the "tuna-mint."

Seriously, I almost jerked my car off the road on accident.  By the way, my resume is attached to the bottom of this column...

Oh, if only someone would pay me the same ammount of money to cover hoops, the world would be a better place, both for me and my twenty two (or so) loyal readers.

But alas, the point.  After watching way, (yes honey, I agree, WAY too many) games this year, I admit we are right back where we started.  Kansas is the best team in the country.  They are the only team without a discernable fatal flaw.  Kentucky?  Too young, too sloppy at times with the ball.  Duke?  I think "too" is generally attached to Duke in so many ways it scantly bears repeating.  Syracuse?  To thin up front, especially with Onawaku dinged up.  West Virginia?  Point guard issues; too many turnovers, not a geat foul shooting team.  Kansas State & Baylor?  Good guards, decent interior defenders.  K-State's 0-3 versus big boy Kansas is a big red flag, and Baylor hasn't won a tourney game in over 50 years.  These lights are a lot brighter than the ones in Waco.  Villanova? In a total tailspin.  Georgetown?  Tantilizing, but why have they lost so many games (for the last time annoying emailers - Freeman did NOT miss as many games as you think.  They just LOST a lot).

Ohio State?  Not much depth, and despite winning the Big Ten tourney, LOOK at the Michigan and Illinois boxscore.  You won't see any teams that poor after round one.  Purdue, Michigan St and Wisconsin all make the Big Ten seem...well, Little.

Speaking of "little" could it be the year of the little guy?  Butler, Temple, Xavier, Richmond and Gonzaga hardly seem "mid" major by now (with the exception of the Spiders).  But does anyone really see any of these clubs getting all the way to Indy?  (my sleeper Final Four team is easily Butler, and it is all match-ups and draw and a versitile 4-man who can work in the high paint against the zone and pass out of traps).  But aside from me - anyone honestly see this group crashing the party??

Which brings us back to square one.  How do you convincingly go anywhere other than the KU Rock "Chalk?"  I hate the brackets with the three one seeds in the Final Four, and then the edgy "off the wall" #2.  Upsets are going to happen this year, but picking them is anyone's best guess. 

I can make a pretty good statistical arguement for about forty different scenarios, all different depending on a few key plays, a few kind whistles, and the siezmic changes in the landscape of the tourney that follow.

So, one final admonishment to all of you with some machismo - leave KU off your CHAMP line.  Are they the best team in the field?  Yes.  Does the best team ALWAYS win?  No.  In fact, in the past 10 years it has happened four, arguably five times.  (UNC 06 & 09, Mich St 00, UConn 04 - and I suppose UF in 07). 

Anything can happen, and let's be honest, saying "I told you so" if Kansas wins won't have near the satisfaction if you hit on Ohio State, West Virginia, Duke, or ANY of the field...

Besides, have you seen Kansas's uniforms?  Mom says they're terrible...



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Five Value Bets for the Vegas-Inclined

Look, anyone who tells you they are "good at tournament pools" is a moron.  Seriously.  They are dumb.  It is equivalent to the person who is good at "being lucky."  Not only is it moronic, it's oxymoronic.

OK, to everyone who has it all figured out.  What if Evan Turner doesn't hit a 37-footer at the buzzer in the first round to beat Big Ten #8 Michigan?  It's an early entry for the Bucks and perhaps their 2 seed in the "deepest bracket of all time" seems like a softer draw than say, Georgetown or West Virginia would have been.  Certainly softer than Kansas State.

Does Evan Turner make the Buckeyes dynamic?  You better believe it.  Our loyal readers know we were about two months ahead of the ET-sycophants and had him as our National POY from Day One... yet I digress.  There will be plenty of time (and an entire column) for "I Told You So's."

Now, predicting a tournament?  Nearly impossible.  Analyzing game-to-game matchups, not so impossible.  But in a massive tournament where one bounc changes the entire future field, anyone NOT picking chalk and proclaiming some clairvoyance is simply a little off.

What we can do, however is talk "value."  Here are the Maniac's Five Value Picks to cut down the nets in Indy, based on Danny Sheridan's Odds.

1.  Duke (8:1)
Why does everyone hate Duke so much?  I have heard they are soft.  Throw out the Georgetown game (everyone gets a mulligan, perhaps Georgetown used theres less judiciously at home against Old Dominion...seriously, look at some of Georgetown's losses all ye' bandwagoners...) and I fail to see a "soft" team.  If their style of play was played by player who looked differently the athleticism and toughness  questions would never arise.  It's true.  Singler is a goofy looking dude and Scheyer wouldn't be your first pick at the local JCC.  However, in all reality Duke defends exceptionally well on ball screens and does a good job pressuring the ball and making it difficult to initiate offense. 

I read a stat that Duke's 43% FG range was terrible (it is below average) and they are ripe for an upset.  However, consider their dazzlingly low turnover rate, the fact they shoot a tremendous volume of 3's and the emergence of Zoubek and Plumlee on the offensive glass and what you get is one of the most efficient, in terms of points per possession, teams in the country.

Their points for/points against ratio is also one of the top in the nation, and don't tell me they didn't play a solid, challenging schedule.

As more than one coach has deadpanned for the camera when asked the key to victory; "Score more points."

Factor in what is being touted as a soft region (I agree, Villanova "swooned" late - you know why?  Their schedule was backloaded and they lost to teams better than them.  If they are #6 on the S-Curve something is really wrong...), and 8:1 becomes more attractive.  If I told you that in a year of relative parity ou could have a team at 8:1 heading into the Final Four, you'd take it, no questions asked.  That kiddies, is what makes Duke the top value on the board.

2.  Baylor (50:1)
Man, this one is absurd.  Is Baylor winning it all?  Probably not.  Is there any team in their region (Duke, Villanova) leaps and bounds better than them?  Folks, there isn't. Tweety Carter, LaceDarius Dunn and Ekpe Udoh are as good a "Big Three" as anyone in the country boasts.  Udoh is probably the best shot blocker in the tourney (since Mississippi State got screwed) and their backcourt is lightening quick, explosive and the highest scoring in BCS conferences.  They have mid-range guys who can go out on the perimeter and score off the bounce.  Does that sound like a recipe that gives a certain team trouble??  Correct, see above.

At 50:1, I'd drop a ten spot on Baylor and hope they make it to the Final Four.  At that point, you have great leverage to hedge the bet and really enjoy March Madness.

3.  New Mexico (75:1)
Has Danny Sheridan watched any college basketball this season?  Did he realize the Lobo's were a 3-seed?  Was he perhaps confused and thought it meant Rebecca "Lobo"?  Again, if we are talking value, anyone who will give you 75:1 for a three-seed (I know, what about Pitt at 75:1, Maniac?  But that's different - Pitt sucks.  Tell me the last time they out-played their seed in the tourney?  Exactly.)  in a parity-driven "down" year that saw more teams ranked in the Top 25 than any season in college hoops history; TAKE IT.  Great value bet.

4.  West Virginia (10:1)
The point guard play scares me a bit, but their only real road block en route to Indy is Kentucky.  I think WVU is deep enough scoring-threat wise to trade punches and rebounds well enough to control tempo and prevent Kentucky from running out.  In a half-court game I am not sure the Cats can make enough shots to win three games in a row (the #16 is a virtual bye).  The Mountaineers seem to be peaking at the right time and have a stone-cold clutch winner in De'Sean Butler; ironically, close friends with Evan Turner, as they have similar skill-sets and big shot mojo.  I'd say it is fair to call Butler a poor-man's ET, but keep in mind Butler has SIX game winning shots this year, and was monsterous in a second half comeback over...yup, Ohio State back in January.


5. Worst Values on the Board!
There are a few to choose from.  First off, Purdue at 55:1 is ludicrous.  Purdue at 500:1 still seems like laying money on Bernie Madoff.  Is there any possible way this team gets to the Final Four?  I really don't think so.  That said, I'm not giving the opener to Siena, nor the second rounder to Texas A&M.  Purdue still has a decent core of talent, they just laid an egg an an inopportune time on national TV Saturday.  It happens.  However, I saw what Duke did to them live and in person last year in Mackey Arena, and that was a full-strength Purdue team and a worse Duke team. It's a terrible matchup for Purdue without Hummel as they lack someone else to exploit Duke's relative diffculty with versatile 3/4s.

Wisconsin is terribly over-seeded, and Vandy is a sucker bet at 50:1 and 80:1 respectivly.  I wouldn't be surprised to see both go home the first weekend.

Lastly, as much as I have loved Syracuse all year, with the lack of depth and the injury to Onawaku, plus the fact they could have to beat Kentucky AND Kansas back-to-back in Indy; I need more than 6:1 to pull the trigger on that one.  Give me 10:1 and we're talking value.  6:1 is a little thin.

Enjoy the tournament.  And, seriously kids, gamblin' is bad.  The Maniac just uses odds and numbers to try and show how smart he is...

Judgement Saturday Picks

Ok, the Gold Medal Hockey game is tomorrow, so there is no excuse not to gorge on a bounty of fantastic basketball games today.  Most of today's games likely won't affect who is "in" and who is "out", but there are about a dozen fantastic games that provide a nice look at who is ready for March and who might be a little overvalued.

The glamour game is tonight in Syracuse, where they are expecting more people in attendance than have EVER attended an on-campus basketball game.  As in EVER.  That's pretty impressive, and the Maniac imagines they will get their money's worth.  Villanova matches up well with the Orange, in the sense that their guard-dominated lineup is well suited to shoot teams out of the zone.  My only question with Nova tonight is how they will bang with the Cuse bigs.  If Syracuse can limit the Wildcats to one shot I like their chances.  The winner of tonight's game gets the inside track on a #1 ssed, particularly if the Cuse win (it pretty muck locks their #1, Villanova would still have a little work to do).

On to the quick picks:


Notre Dame +11 @ Georgetown:  The Irish have found something special in the past few games without Luke Harangody.  Their crushing win over Pitt puts them oddly back in the tourney mix, despite having lost three straight before that contest.  It's been a while since ND was blowout, and Georgetown seems oddly susceptable to the home upset to bubble teams.  Gimme the Irish with the bevy of points.

Boston College @ Georgia Tech - 7:  For some reason every mock bracket has the Jackets tucked safely in the field, despite a 6-7 record in an average ACC.  I think that's a mistake, and I think GT knows they have work to do.  Expect them to finally do it today at home.

Kentucky -2 @ Tennessee:  Yes, the Vols will be amped up today.  The crowd will be electric.  But this is a terrible matchup for UT.  They just don't have the depth or the guard play to hang with Kentucky.  Expect Cousins and Patterson to get Chism in some foul trouble early and the Vols have no one to turn to after that.

Rhode Island -5 @ St. Bonnaventure:   The Rams are in danger of playing themselves out of the tournament with another bad loss.  Fortunatly for them St. Bonnie is terrible.  I like the Rams to get well and win by double digits on the road.

Arizona State @ Cal -6:  Knock the Pac 10 all we want, but I think Cal locks up a comfortable tourney spot with a win tonight.  One thing nearly every Pac 10 team has done this year is pack it in on the road.  I like Cal, one of the nation's hottest teams, to roll at home and grab the conference regualr season crown.  However, should the Devils steal on on the road, they move into the soft bubble mix.

New Mexico +9 @ BYU:  Syracuse gets all the attention tonight, but the game of the day is right here in Provo, Utah.  Both teams are NCAA locks, the winner today likely sews up a Top 4 seed.  New Mexico is absolutely on fire and is more athletic than the Cougars.  I like them to control the looks Jimmer Fredette gets from the perimeter and to control the glass.  I'm not sure the Lobos get the huge road win, but I'll take them with the points.

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Bracketbusters 2010

We're Bra-aaack.  (Bam!  Movie reference more dated that last month's ET reference.  Well played Maniac!)  Um, yeah, welcome to Brackbusters 2010.  Might be one of the more misappropriatly titled events, and in my humble opinion hurts more mid-major's with a loss than it does help them by beating...yup, another mid-major!

Regardless, it does make for about a half-dozen fantastic basketball games, starting with tonight's gem, Old Dominion @ Northern Iowa, and the Maniac's pet team, William & Mary travelling to Iona.

The full TV schedule is below, and following that, we'll have some quick picks and game breakdowns & implications.  Enojy!

2010 BracketBusters Schedule

Date	Time (ET)	Matchup	Network(s)
Fri., 2/19	7 p.m.	Old Dominion at No. 22 Northern Iowa	ESPN2 HD / ESPN360.com
Fri., 2/20	9 p.m.	William & Mary at Iona	ESPNU
Sat., 2/20	11 a.m.	Siena at No. 15 Butler	ESPN2 HD / ESPN360.com
Sat., 2/20	Noon	Morgan State at Murray State	ESPNU
Sat., 2/20	1 p.m.	Louisiana Tech at Northeastern	ESPN2/ ESPN360.com
Sat., 2/20	3 p.m.	Nevada at Missouri State	ESPN2 / ESPN360.com
Sat., 2/20	4 p.m.	Akron at Virginia Commonwealth	ESPNU
Sat., 2/20	8 p.m.	Coll. of Charleston at George Mason	ESPN2 HD / ESPN360.com
Sat., 2/20	8 p.m.	Western Carolina at Kent State	ESPNU
Sat., 2/20	10 p.m.	New Mexico State at Pacific	ESPNU
Sat., 2/20	11:59 p.m.	Wichita State at Utah State	ESPN2 / ESPN360.com

The Player of the Year and the Most Important Player You Aren't Talking About

Evan Turner has been March Maniac's pick for National POY for the entire season, and we ain't changing for John Wall anytime soon.

However, perhaps the most important player in the country you haven't heard much about will be playing on the other side tonight when Purdue brings their #4 ranking into Colombus tonight to battle the Bucks for the Big Ten lead.  No, it's not Robbie Hummel, despite what nearly every Purdue game promo might lead you to believe.  (have you noticed that?  Every time Purdue is going to be on it's "Robbie Hummel and the Purdue Boilermakers...)  Hummel is a very good player.  E'Twaun Moore has the ability to be special and be the difference maker in helping this team get to Indianapolis in April.

Against Michigan State last week, Moore simply took over the game for a crucial three minute stretch late in the second half when the Spartans were beginning to wrestle back some momentum.  He showed signs of being a player that can throw a team on his back and win them a ballgame.

He might need to tonight in Colombus - either way, I really like both of these teams for March.  I've written extensively about both - so no official pick tonight, just enjoy a really high level college basketball game.

A TECHnical Lock?

Virginia Tech is 20-4 (7-3) heading into tonight's visit from Wake Forest.  Granted, VA Tech's pre-conference highlights include only wins over Georgia, Penn State and Seton Hall, and a loss at Temple. But since when does 20-4 with a 7-3 record in the ACC have you squarely on the bubble?

I think, for once, I agree with Seth Greenburg's apopleptic frustration.  Not enough to ever dream of sabatoging the greatest sporting event in America and turining it into a 96-team slopfest, but enough to agree that his Hokies have been drastically overlooked so far this season.  Aside from the loss at Miami, they have not taken anything resembling a bad loss this season.

There are two obvious solutions to earning respect: One - schedule better.  It's too late to fix that one this year.  Secondly?  WIN tonight over Wake Forest, move into second place in the ACC and grab firmly ahold of your spot in the Dance.

I really like this Wake Forest team.  Al Farouq Aminu is a beast and their guard play is steady, if not spectacular.  They can win a game or two in the tourney, and should definitely get to the Dance.   My early season proclamation of Georgia Tech and Clemson as two and three in the conference might have been off base.  Wake deserves to be in that discussion far more than those two.  However, I like The ACC's leading scorer Malcolm Delaney and the Hokies grabbing a huge program win tonight on their home floor.

MANIAC'S PICK:

Virginia Tech -4.5

The Damage Done? A Quick Weekend Recap

Perhaps too much is made of singular wins and losses in early February in definitive terms of "in" or "out".  For example, it would be really easy to call UConn's Saturday disastrous home loss to Cincinnati 60-48 the final nail in the tourney hope coffin.

Then they turn around and beat Villanova in Phily.  UConn still has some work to do, but with a road win over Nova and a win over Texas, coupled with a strong schedule strength, it is hard to say the Huskies are officially dead.  Ditto for Louisville.  After their pathetic effort in a road loss to St. John's it was hard to envision the Cards getting to the Dance.  Then they grabbed a 66-60 win at Syracuse and it was game-on again.  In fact, that singular win picked the Cards sagging RPI from 47th all the way up to 31st.  Still think Pitino is heading to the NIT?  I'd say there's a better chance he heads to the NETs...

The point is, a single win or loss doesn't officially bury a team's tourney hopes...or does it?  Let's take a look at the weekend's most significant results.

Cornell avoided compacting the disaster of the Penn loss by rebounding to steal a 2-point win over Princeton.  However, that loss leaves them in must-win mode for the remainder of the season.  Should they drop a game or two and NOT win the Ivy and it's auto bid, I find it hard to believe they get an at-large slot.  The committee is rarely sentimental (see: leaving out Davidson last year).  They are pragmatic.  And with two or three losses in the Ivy, they would not be worthy.  Sorry.


Northern Iowa is still a lock tourney team, but dropping a game to Bradley pushes them back into the 7-10 range, depending upon how they rebound from here.  If they stayed clean and ran the  table, I had them as high as a 4 or 5.

Cal is approaching lock status after sweeping the Washington schools last week to move to 9-4 in league play.  This is good news for the Pac-10, who can root for everyone else in the conference tourney and avoid 1-bid embarrassment.

Xavier fired a major shot for A-10 respect, going into Florida and winning Saturday night.  X moves into near-lock status and is trending towards wearing white in the opening round.  Meanwhile Florida is getting precariously close to a third straight NIT.  If not for a few miracle buzzer-beaters, this season would be long over.  As it is, they need to finish strong.

South Carolina's odds of dancing were pretty long to begin with, losing at Georgia to fall to 14-10 (5-5) all but seals their fate.  As of now, they are not even on the bubble and would have to leapfrog about 15 teams to get close to the tourney.

Murray State is getting to be an interesting case.  At 24-3 and a perfect 15-0 in Ohio Valley play, they are dangerously close to being in position to steal an at-large bid should they falter in the OVC Tourney.  Suffice it to say there are a dozen of so ACC, SEC, BEast and Big 12 schools who are becoming BIG Racer fans for their conference tourney run...

VCU is now officially done unless they win the CAA Tourney.  They fell to 9-6 in CAA play after losing to James Madison.  Early season wins over Oklahoma, Rhode Island and Richmond seem long ago by this point.  Conversely, William & Mary hung on to distant at-large hopes with a huge win over Northeasetern.  If the Tribe can win out, they would sit at 22-7 (13-5), with road wins over Maryland and Wake Forest.  It makes for an interesting case for inclusion in the tourney...

Don't look now, but Marquette is emerging (as predicted by the Maniac) as the sixth BEast team after a comfy win over South Florida.  The Bulls would have loved the win, but even falling to 5-7 doesn't cripple their hopes.  Their home schedule (starting tonight with Cincinnati) lends favorably to a late tourney charge.

Oklahoma State stopped the bleeding by hammering rival Oklahoma in Stillwater.  The Sooner's hopes were done anyway, but let's go ahead and officially toe-tag the season now.  For the 'Pokes, at 17-7 (5-5) there is some work still left to do, but the win keeps them alive and kicking strong.  A loss?  It might have buried them too deep to dig out.

St. Mary's had a disastrous week that, in my opinion, leaves them needing to win the WCC Tourney to avoid another near-miss getting in to the tourney, despite posting 26 or 27 wins.  Earlier in the week they were emasculated by Gonzaga.  Saturday night they got clipped 80-75 by the Portland Pilots.  Early season talk about the strength of the WCC appears to have been premature, as the league is headed to one-bid territory yet again unless some upsets the Zags in the tourney.  In their last two games against the two premier challengers (St. Mary's and Portland) Gonzaga won by 20+.

Dayton is "in" in nearly every mock tourney board, but the 68-65 2OT loss at St. Louis leaves the Flyers a clear step behind Temple, Richmond and Xavier in A-10 pecking order.  Rhode Island has a much better record.  In my opinion they and Charlotte are slugging it out for fifth, and I just don't see all six getting in.  The Flyers better be real careful not to leave another win on the table in the last three weeks.  Speaking of St. Louis, they have nothing in non-conference play but have surged to 7-3 in the A-10, and sit at 17-8 overall.... not saying anything, I'm just saying...

Speaking of Richmond, move them from "bubble" to IN.  The win over Rhode Island now gives them road wins over Florida, Mississippi St and Rhode Island to go with wins over Temple, Missouri and Old Dominion.  The Spiders have played themselves into good position for March, even with a few tough games left on the schedule.

Lastly in A-10 play, last week I wrote that Rhode Island's #13 RPI might be a little bit of fool's gold.  It proved prophetic after they got spanked 78-56 at Temple.  The Rams are still 21-5, but need to be careful as they lack any real marquee wins.  Temple is a lock, and stays in line for a #4-#5 seed.

San Diego State kept their distant hopes alive, knocking off UNLV in a must-win game for the Aztecs.  New Mexico and BYU are locks, and UNLV is still in good shape.  San Diego State still needs some breaks to go their way, but the win over UNLV keeps them in the conversation.

Texas A&M got a huge 77-75 road win over Texas Tech.  The loss drops Tech to 4-6 in Big 12 play, and likely out of the tourney.  A&M's RPI continues to surge into the low teens, and they appear a solid lock for the Dance.

In C-USA, Memphis might have landed the knock-out punch to Tulsa's at-large chances by winning at the Golden Hurricane's house.  Marshall is not going to the tourney, but they continue to impress after pulling off a road win at UAB.  The Blazers have a good non-conference resume, but are squarely back on the bubble.  Memphis is going to push them for second in the league, which in my opinion, is good enough to snag an #11 or #12 in the tourney.  No way they both get in, and Tulsa needs to win out to get back in the mix.  UTEP remains the strong front runner after a 100-76 win over ECU.

Lastly, things are starting to settle a bit in the ACC.  Saturday established Duke as the clear leader.  They are no worse than a #2, and still have an outside chance at a #1 Seed.  Maryland was hurt by the 22-point loss at Durham, but remains in solid tourney position.  Virginia Tech got themselves into the discussion, and probably knocked out Virginia with by completing the series sweep over the Cavs.

Lastly, Wake Forest seems pushing towards tourney lock, while Georgia Tech is playing themselves surprisingly towards the bubble.  The Deacon's 75-64 win over the Wreck moved them to 18-5 (8-3), while it dropped Tech to 17-8 (5-6)

Three Against the Wall

We are starting to get to the time of the season where we truly have enormous games, games where the losers back themselves into a corner where they pretty much have to win their conference tourney in order to make the Dance.  Three games on tonight's slate jump out to me.

In the Colonial, two teams that looked like at-large candidates two months ago find themselves at a crossroad.  William & Mary, admittedly the Maniac's darling team this season, knocked off Wake and Maryland on the road (something, coincidentally NO ACC team has done this season) and looked to be well poised to capture an at-large bid if necessary.  Old Dominion, along with VCU, captured enough momentum and quality wins pre-conference that it looked likely that at least one of them would make the field as well, possibly even making the CAA a three-bid league for the first time since the historic 2006 season.

Then conference play began, and things got a little messy.  ODU has fared well, sitting at 9-2 in league.  However, they still trail George Mason and Northeastern (both of whom did not fare well pre-conference).  William & Mary is in even a tougher spot, as they sit 7-4, tied for fifth place in the league with VCU (and behind Drexel).  The loser of tonight's contest, especially if it is W&M, will be forced to win the league tourney to get in.  The game is tonight at 7pm at Old Dominion.

Another mid-major do-or-die game features a team long so successful it feels odd to classify them as a mid-major.  Memphis is on the outside looking in as of today and is going to need to stack up some quality wins in a hurry to make the field.  They get their first chance tonight at 8pm when conference leading UAB visits the Pyramid.  Gonzaga follows them into town on Saturday. After Memphis's surprising 70-60 loss to SMU, it is fair to say they need to win both to have a good chance to capture an at-large bid.  Conference USA gets real interesting if Memphis wins tonight, as UTEP and Tulsa have both only dropped one conference game as well.  There is no way C-USA gets four bids.  I think three might be a stretch too.  Tonight is a must for Memphis.

A final mid-major delight features the two best teams in the always competitive Missouri Valley.  Wichita State was able to do something only one other team this season has last month; knock off Northern Iowa.  Tonight the Panthers get their chance to even the score when the Shockers come to the McLeod Center (8:05 EST).  For Northern Iowa, even a loss tonight, provided they suffer no other setbacks, will not prevent them from getting in the tourney.  A loss for Wichita State might.  They suffered only only one non-conference loss (to Pitt), but they have next to no quality wins to speak of either.  Their best win is Texas Tech.  After that it's just Iowa, Cleveland State...and it gets worse from there.  I am not sure the Valley is strong enough to earn an at-large bid for a team with four conference losses, which is what the Shockers will be if they drop tonight's game.  It is a must win for Wichita State.

Three games to watch, though they might be hard to watch (unless you have Dish or Direct TV).  Enjoy 'em if you can.

Maniac's Picks:

William & Mary +12

UAB +7.5

Wichita State +6

(I like all three with the points, but think only Memphis gets the must-win they need)

.

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The Maniac's First Bracket - Jan 26th

Rather than Bracketeering this week, settle in for the first glimpse at The Maniac's Bracket.

The Maniac had a fun day today after having an MRI on his brain, which, ironically many of you have long suggested necessary.  While all is well, and my health is super-duper OK, the picks of late might have been a red flag for concern (and a thorough brain X-Ray..)  However, this bracket is a good first attempt to sort out the Madness impending.

A couple of notes: first, it is a projection.  For example, I realize Northwestern would NOT be in today.  I also realize that not every small conference winner is currently in first place in their conference.  In the Summit, I like IUPUI over Oakland and in the Southern I tabbed Charleston over Western Carolina.  Those subtle tweaks have little to do with the overall bracket and seeding.

The biggest difference between us and Bracketology is the predictive element of the bracket.  I looked at current records, but also opportunities for RPI's to rise and fall, likely losses looming ahead, and teams poised to rattle off a few W's in a row, and then slotted teams accordingly.  It is easy to see a strong finish for Northwestern coming, due to the uneven nature of the schedule; hence a #10 in my first projection.  (Though something tells me NW fans aren't that concerned about seeding....)

As always, it is sure to spark debate, but that is what makes College Hoops so fantastic.

Enjoy!  And feel free to write with gripes and comments.

LEFT SIDE

1	Syracuse		Michigan St
16	Rob Mor/TX So.		Maine
8	New Mexico		Xavier
9	Oklahoma St		Cincinnati
4	Temple		Tennessee
13	Cornell		Murray St.
5	Clemson		Kansas State
12	St. Mary's		Siena
6	BYU		UAB
11	Florida		Wichita St.
3	Gonzaga		Purdue
14	No. Colorado		Lafayette
7	Butler		Cal
10	Old Dominion		UNLV
15	Morgan State		Denver
2	Texas		Villanova

RIGHT SIDE:

Kansas		Kentucky
Texas A&M CC		Campbell
Maryland		Northern Iowa
Baylor		Memphis
Vanderbilt		Ohio State
Coastal Carolina		Louisiana Tech
Wisconsin		Pitt
Rhode Island		Charlotte
Mississippi St		Ole Miss
Wake Forest		Missouri
Georgetown		Georgia Tech
Charleston		IUPUI
Uconn		North Carolina
Florida State		Northwestern
Akron		Pacific
Duke		West Virginia

COMMENTS ON JAN 26th BRACKET:

Big Leaps & Top Dogs:  

Vanderbilt is much higher than they would be if the season ended today.  However, I have a feeling they split with Kentucky and end up second in the SEC East.  Their current record is 16-3 and they have already won all three of their road games in the SEC, including at rival Tennessee.  They are in excellent shape to finish on the 3 or 4 line.

Georgia Tech:  I know, they are not even close to a three seed...yet.  I like Tech as the #2 team in a good and balanced ACC.  Right now they might be hard to separate from Maryland, Wake and Clemson but give it a few more weeks and I think the Rambling Wreck will float toward the top of the league.

Michigan State is quietly amassing one of the best tourney resumes in the nation.  They make the turn in the Big Ten undefeated, and seem likely to win the league, with three game leads over Wisconsin, Purdue and Ohio State.  Their out-of-conference losses are all quality, and their RPI will continue to climb as Big Ten play provides very few gimmes.  They seem as well positioned from a remaining-schedule standpoint as any team aiming for a #1 seed.

Syracuse is my #1 overall team.  I've had them #1 for a week now, and see no reason to drop them off the top line, even if they sustain a few conference losses.  Their head-to-head with Villanova might prove a decisive contest, however.

I gave Kansas and Kentucky the nod for the final two slots, though I expect both to lose at least two more games.  Texas could vault over Kansas by winning their matchup in two weeks, and winning the Big 12 Tourney.  Kentucky's path seems clear in conference, but if they slip more than two or three times, expect a second BEast or Big 12 team to capture the fourth #1 seed.

UAB as a #6, Temple as a #4 and Georgetown at a #3 are all high for now, as might be Purdue (#3).  Those slots represent season projection finish rather than current status. 

Surprises?

North Carolina is going to make the tournament.  They are.  If they go 7-4 down the stretch (very possible) and win a game in the ACC Tourney they would finish at 21-12.  They'd own non-conference wins over Michigan State and Ohio State, and their losses would be to Texas, Syracuse and Kentucky.  It is easy to kick Roy and the Heels while they are down, but despite some stumbles they are likely a tourney team, and a 6 to 10 seed to boot.  I have them as a #7, based on the above record projection.  They are still three or four bad losses away from talking NIT...

UAB, Butler, and BYU:  Expect three teams with the top records in the country to still find themselves outside the Top 4 seed line.  BYU blew a golden opportunity to vault into the upper echelon losing at New Mexico this week.  The Mountain West is solid, but not solid enough to earn a top 4 seed without a near-flawless record.  Butler will not face another team inside the RPI Top 100 the rest of the season.  While that gets them to the Dance comfortably, it is hard to see them moving up a seed line, even if teams above them falter a little bit.  UAB is the most interesting case.  The have a few quality wins (Tulsa, Butler, Cincinnati), and are amassing a gaudy record in the solid C-USA.  However, if the committee looks at the strength of their play in many of the wins over poor opponents, their seed will tumble...Fortunatly for the Blazers, the RPI is rarely that sophisticated.

Memphis:  The Tigers have completely vanished from the collective basketball world's conscious, and I have yet to see a mock bracket that included the Tigers.  Consider this: the Tigers have home-and-homes with Tulsa and UAB remaining.  They also host Gonzaga next week (HUGE opportunity to claim a bid).  If they go just 3-2 in those games (and I think they will) and win the other very winnable games remaining (also think they will) they will be sitting at 24-7, with three of their losses coming to Kansas, Syracuse and Tennessee (and also some combination of the three teams mentioned prior).  Other than a 1-pointer to UMass you can't find a bad loss.  That smells like a tourney team to me.

Wichita State:  My fondness for mid-majors might be showing, but I really think the Shockers will get an at-large spot if they need it (should Northern Iowa win the MVC Tourney).  The catch?  If someone other than N. Iowa wins the tourney.  I can't see the committee taking three from the Valley.

Florida:  Talk about living dangerous, if Chandler Parsons' two buzzer beaters do not fall, the Gators are sitting 13-7, (3-3) and NIT-bound.  Instead, they are 15-5 and in prime position to return to the Dance for the first time since cutting down the nets in 2007.

Omissions?

Louisville:  Some may give the Cards the nod over Cincy, particularly after last weekend's win.  However, when it is all said and done the Cards pre-conference struggles will do them in.  In the middle of the muddled BEast I like UConn and Cincinnati to emerge as te conferences' sixth and seventh bids.

Tulsa:  I like the Golden Hurricane, but the further you dig into their resume you find it incredibly barren.  The gut-wrenching loss the other night to UAB might be a death sentence unless they can sweep Memphis.

Texas A&M:  Many might have them slotted ahead of Baylor and Missouri.  I just don't see it.  I also fanned on OK State in the preseason.  They appear to be the 3rd or 4th best team in the Big 12.  Back to A&M, they do have wins over Clemson and Minnesota from the preseaosn to buoy them up if they are close, I see them as one of the first few teams out, but again, could snatch the spot from Baylor or Mizzou.

Dayton:  Everyone has had the Flyers comfortably in all year, but it is time to recognize they just do not have the profile of a tourney team and cannot afford any more "bad losses" in conference play.  They have slid weel behind Temple and Xavier,which is OK.  What is not OK is slipping behind Rhode Island, Charlotte and Richmond, which they have.

Virginia & Virginia Tech:  The first?  Nice story, but no bid.  The second?  Same ole' story, and sorry Seth, no bid.

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Big East Pitfalls

There's just so little time to read one's own headlines when one plays in the BEast.

Pitt suffered their first conference loss tonight, at home to Georgetown.  The Hoyas never blew them out, but did control the game much of the way. For Pitt, it is a bit of a reality dose; they aren't the best team in that league. In my humble opinion I still think Syracuse and Villanova are better (yes, I know they beat the Cuse on their own floor), and think there is little seperation between them, Georgetown and West Virginia.  It's not a knock on Pitt, just an honest assessment from watching all five teams play three, four or five times each.

But now we get to find out HOW good they really are when they bounce back from their first setback.  They have three they should win.  Will they get up quick, stay focused and keep the pressure on the top of the league?

UP NEXT:

Pitt:  @Seton Hall, St John's, @USF
G'Town:  Rutgers, @Syracuse, Duke (show me time for the Hoyas too, huh?!?)

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Big Night in the A-10

Tonight is a huge night of hoops for the nation's sixth best conference.  No, we're not talking about the Pac-10, or even the Mountain West, but none other than the Atlantic-10.  Depending on whom you believe, if the season ended today the A-10 would have four or even five teams in the Field of 65.  Tonight's games gives us a good glimpse at some of the best, and also some of the middle of the pack slugging it out for position.

The marquee matchup takes place in Phily, where the 4-0 Xavier Musketeers visit the similarly unbeaten Temple Owls.  Both teams seem likely tourney teams though Temple is much more of a lock than X at this point.  Xavier has taken some losses, but none of them "bad" losses; double-OT at Wake Forest, at Kansas State (who just beat Texas), Baylor and Marquette on a neutral floor, Butler on the road on a controversial ending.  Their overall profile, RPI (16th) and momentum (and pedigree, though it isn't supposed to matter) scream tourney team.

Tonight's game is huge for Temple, who can take control of the conference and legitimately start thinking Top 4 seed with a win tonight.  The game is equally big for the Muskies, who have had a lot of close calls, but aside from the double-OT win over Cincinnati, lack a real marquee win.  A quality road win against a ranked opponent does wonders for the RPI and national profile, as does taking control of the league.

Temple will look to wrestle control of the A-10 tonight hosting Xavier

Dayton also looks like as solid tourney team to me, but faces a tricky visit from GW tonight.  The Flyers should win and keep pace in the A-10, but a game like tonight, against the 7th or 8th best team in the league, shows how good and deep the A-10 is in 2010.

It is a similar situation for Rhode Island when they host dissapointing Duquesne tonight.  The Dukes were just a few minutes away from earning the league's NCAA bid last year, before falling to Temple in the closing minutes.  With a lot of key cogs back, expectations were high in Pittsburgh.  Suffice it to say they haven't been met.  Since gagging up a win in double-OT against Pitt, the Dukes have gone 4-6, 0-3 in conference.  Still, they have some talent and are much more of a threat than most league's cellar dwellers.  It will be interesting to see how routinely the Rams handle their business.

Xavier v. Temple is the best game.   The most intriguing game is Charlotte at Richmond.  If a fifth team does sneak in from the A-10, it is likely one of these two.  Richmond has the conference's best out of league glamour win collection, with wins over Florida, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State.  However they have already lost to St. Louis in conference and had tougher-than-expected tussles with UMass and Lasalle.

Charlotte opened some eyes with the beatdown they laid on Louisville in Freedom Hall, but

also boasts a 42-point loss to Duke to go with 33'er to Old Dominion and a 18-spot to Tennessee.  If the committee looks at margin, this screams of a team that might embarass you if you select them.  However, a win tonight brings them to 4-1 in the A-10, and probably slots them slightly ahead of the Spiders on the Big Board pecking order.

A great night of hoops for fans of the Atlanic-10 - enjoy!

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Tuesday's Quick Picks - January 19th, 2010

We have a nice bevy of quality games tonight.  Tennessee, America's new darling team, faces a tricky road trip trap game in Tuscaloosa.  The Tide have given Purdue and Vandy fits in their gym and also beaten Michigan.  I'm making no official pick on this one, but it is worth a watch as Tennessee is creeping into legitimate #1 seed discussions.

Another fantastic conference game is taking place in Atlanta tonight.  I was blown away by the explosive quickness and leaping ability of Gani Lawal, and even more impressed with his strength watching him manhandle Carolina's vaunted interior.  It will be a blast watching him and Clemson's Booker bang all game.  This is another game I wouldn't dare touch in Vegas, but I would wager you are watching two of the three best teams in the ACC face off tonight.

Ok, now for same games I will put my name on:

George Mason, like Creighton and Utah, had miserable pre-conference seasons but still seem capable of spoiling some things once conference play starts.  Hofstra is a tough place to win, and they have been solid in CAA play, but I like the Patriots and the four and a half tonight.

Evan Turner is my National Player of the Year (still), and many readers will be surprised to see where Ohio State lands in tomorrow's Bracketeering.  That said, laying 12 is a lot to a good Northwestern team, fresh off their win over Purdue.  Ohio State wins, but I'll take NW and the 12.

Oklahoma is 2-1 in conference play, and from a distance seems to have steadied the once-promising ship.  From a distance.  This team takes terrible shots and looks like a playground team at times.  The win over Mizzou is a good one, but I'll still lay the seven and take Texas A&M at home.

Surely Purdue can't lose another game in a row, right?  That logic burnt me this weekend at Northwestern, but I'm sticking to my guns tonight when they travel to Champaigne.  I still think the Illini are a bit overrated and a bubble team by the time the season winds down.  If Purdue drops THIS one, it is time to push the panic button in West Lafayette.

In my final pick, let me start by saying Northern Iowa is really good.  In my estimation, they are a tourney lock, and though we've had them higher than the polls all year (who finally ranked the Panthers), deserve their spot in Bracketeering.  However, there is nothing tougher than knocking off a familiar, talented conference rival in their barn.  The Panthers are going to try to do just that tonight at Wichita State.  I like the Shockers laying two, in a good win not only for them, but also for the MVC's hopes of earning more than one bid.

MANIAC'S PICKS:

Northwestern +12

Wichita St. -2

Texas A&M -7

George Mason +4.5

Purdue -4

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Two Favorites for the Road

As of this morning, the Maniac sits a pleasant ten games over .500 ATS on the season picks.  Here's two quickies.  Syracuse heads to Notre Dame where the Irish have been tough.  So tough they've lost to Loyola Marymount and Northwestern.  I think Syracuse zones 'em up, and forces someone other than Harangody to beat them... and I'm not sure who can fit that bill.  I like the 'Cuse laying the 3.

In the late game on ESPN, Texas gets yet another huge test when they travel to Manhattan to face the Wildcats.  K-State has been good this year, and has a really solid ballclub.  However, there is just something about Damion James, Avery Bradley and this year's Longhorn squad that ramps it up a notch for the big games.  I like the Horns depth to wear them out down the stretch and grab another big win.  Don't be surprised though if the Wildcats lead early and most of the second half.

Interesting fact to store for March:  The Horns' best distributor and defensive guard Dogas Balbay was shooting 48% from the line heading into Saturday's A&M game.  Forty Eight Percent.  From your point guard and primary ball handler.  That HAS to be a concern for March... but I still like the Horns tonight.

MANIAC'S PICKS:

Syracuse - 3

Texas -1.5

Done? Oklahoma Drops Conference Opener by 31

I was hesitant to bury Oklahoma too soon.  Then they went out and lost 91-60 to Baylor in the conference opener... No article or really much to say, just thought that was the most startling score of the weekend that slipped a bit under the radar.  Baylor is good, probably tourney good this year.  But still, a 31 point loss in the opener?  Things are getting really close to over in Norman for Capel and Willie Warren.

Let's call tonight what it is.  Last chance time.  Get housed by Oklahoma State tonight on ESPN and we can start talking football in Norman, OK.

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Weekend Review - Big East Jan 10th

The nation's most exciting conference of 2008-2009 is living up to the advance billing once again in 2010.  Here is a quick rundown of the weekend that was and the big games coming up this week.

Georgetown's 72-69 comeback win at home against UConn was one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.  Coach K likes to say that great shooting can cover up a lot of team flaws.  In that case Austin Freeman was a giant tarp.  His 28 point second half explosion was a revelation for the Hoyas.  If he can continue to pour it in from the outside, just think how good Greg Monroe can become...

The biggest win of the weekend has to belong to Notre Dame.  Despite their strong record the Irish were desperatly devoid of a quality win.  Toppling West Virginia 70-68 certainly fits the bill.  If the Irish could get into that Top 20, Top 15 range Harangody would be a legitimate challenger to John Wall for player of the year.  His numbers are simply ridiculously off the charts.

Seton Hall notched a big win as well.  The Pirates have played tough in close losses, but that won't get you to the NCAA tourney.  Cincinnati can feel a repeat of year's past unfolding as they fell to 1-3 after the 83-76 road loss to the Hall.

Marquette used an incredible 57 point second half to again fall JUST short, losing 78-76 to Villanova.  The Warriors could easily be 4-0 in conference, but still remain 1-3.  The good news is the losses are all to the top teams in the league.  As their schedule evens out, the Warriors should be fine. 

Louisville moved to 3-0 with their win over St John's (whose tourney hopes are fading quickly).  Now let's see for the 'Ville fares tonight against their first real conference test hosting Villanova. 

Team UP:  Louisville, Georgetown
Team DOWN: St. John's, Cincinnati

Games of the Week: Pitt @ UConn (Wed), Seton Hall @ Georgetown (Thur), Louisville @ Pitt & Syracuse @ West Virginia & Notre Dame @ Cincy (Sat), G'Town @ Nova (Sun)

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