Villanova Stunned - Providence Notches Second Striaght Upset Win

After starting Big East play 0-6, the Providence Friars looked to be easy fodder for the top half of the league to fatten up on in their quest to score a NCAA-record ten tournament bids.  Someone forgot to tell the Friars.

Brooks has the Friars reaching farther than expected.

Providence followed up their upset win over Louisville last weekend with a stunning 83-68 over #8 Villanova.  Marshon Brooks led the Friars with 20 points, following up his 27 point performance over Louisville with another clutch performance.

The win marks the first time in 12 years Providence has notched back-to-back wins over Top 25 teams, and more importantly shakes up the already-chaotic Big East yet again.  Things appeared to be settling into the normal caste system that marks most elite conferences.  Villanova was in the ruling class; Providence the serfs.  The last four days things have been flipped upside down; in addition to Providence, both Seton Hall and Notre Dame knocked off two other Top 10 teams in Syracuse and Pitt respectively. 

Providence will look to keep their resent surge going Sunday at Seton Hall while 'Nova looks to get back on track with a tough visit from Georgetown Saturday afternoon.

For a detailed Big East Mid-Season Breakdown, check MarchManiacs.com Thursday Edition.

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Seven for the Stretch Run

Even by the most conservative estimates, there are no more than 15 at-large bids up for grabs. If one leans towards practicality, the number is closer to 9 or 10, as Syracuse, West Virginia, Florida State and Utah are closer to locks than the bubble.

That said, here is the Maniac's slant on who leans through the finish line and who stands gasping with their hands on their hips.

Cincinnati - 17-10 (7-7)
The Cats will have their chance to move into secure footing Thursday night when they take on former coach Bob Huggins and the Mountaineers. Following the WVU game they go to Syracuse for their final chance at a marquee win. Their final two games are should wins at South Florida and hosting Seton Hall. Should the Cats split their next two, then handle their business in the final two they would finish 20-11, 10-8. That should be enough to dance.
MANIAC'S CALL: OUT

Virginia Tech 16-10 (6-6)
The Hokies have played themselves on the wring side of the bubble dropping three straight games. The good news? They have four games remaining to pick up some valuable wins and play their way in. The flipside? They could easily drop three or even all four and find themselves a tourney afterthought (and middle seed in the NIT). The gauntlet starts tonight at Clemson, followed by visits from Duke and UNC. The finale is a trip to Florida State...but by then it may not matter too much.
MANIAC'S CALL: OUT

Providence 17-11 (9-7)
With all apologies to Barack, The Friars showed us a real game changer last night. Their start-to-finish beating of the #1 Panthers last night took the Friars from first team out to comfortably IN. Now they just have to hold the rope. A win over Rutgers and a non-embarassing performance at Villanova and in the first round of the Big East tourney should get the Friars a ticket to the Dance.
MANIAC'S CALL: IN

Notre Dame 15-11 (6-8)
Ok, hear me out... Notre Dame has two should wins on the schedule, a trip to Storrs Saturday and a home game against Villanova. If they go 3-1, and win a game in the Big East tourney, they would finish up 19-13, (9-9). It would depend on how well some of the smaller conference locks fare in the conference tourney, but I think it would be enough to get the Irish the last at large bid. Win at Connecticut? Notre Dame passes Cincinnati and Providence and becomes the Big East's 7th bid.
MANIAC'S CALL: IN

Kansas State 19-8 (7-5)
The Wildacts put on a heckuva run to even get to this point in the discussion, but a colser look at the resume makes their case a longshot. They boast no major non-conference wins, and have losses to Kentucky (acceptable), Iowa (less acceptable) and Oregon (something NO Pac-10 team has to apologize for...). Their final four gives them a chance to win their way in; games against Nebraska and Oklahoma State are winnable and attractive wins to boot, the Missouri game would be the clincher. It is asking a lot of a team that no one expected to be here after starting 0-5 in Big 12 play.
MANIAC'S CALL: OUT

UAB 19-8 (9-3)
The Blazers have an early season win over Arizona, and all five of their non-conference losses are to tourney teams (Oklahoma, Butler, Cincinati, Louisville, and BC). That said, this is not your Daddy's C-USA. It is a 1-bid league these days, though Houston, Tulsa and the Blazers are much improved. The Blazers do get a de facto first round tourney game on Saturday when they take on Memphis. Win that, and their other remaining three and they make a compelling case for the committee to consider. Should they lose Saturday, they better win the C-USA tourney ior it is another trip to the NIT for Robert Vaden and Coach Davis.
MANIAC'S CALL: OUT

Creighton 23-6 (13-4)
Wins over Dayton, St. Joes and New Mexico and a two-point losses to underrated Arkansas Little Rock and Nebraska give the Blue Jays one of the more intriguing discussions. 13-4 in the balanced, but not spectacular MVC leads one to believe the Jays need to win the tourney to Dance. I think if they win Saturday over Illinois State and finish the regular season at 24-6 they will be fine; deservedly so.
MANIAC'S CALL: IN

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Something Festive Friar-ing

Providence resurrected sagging tourney aspirations with a HUGE win at home on senior night at the Dunkin' Donuts Center topping #1 Pitt 81-73.

For a team desperatly seeking a signature win, it doesn't get much better than tackling the #1 team in the nation; and a nearly sure-fire #1 seed in the tourney.

The biggest loser? The Cincinnati Bearcats. The Cats were balancing on same bubble as the Friars, with many (Maniac included) giving a slight nod to the Cats. With tonight's win by Providence and their series sweep over UC, Providnce moves back INTO the Big Dance, while the Cats need to hold serve and upset West Virginia Thursday night to keep pace.

Dunkin' GoNuts!

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Big Wins and Damaging Losses

Everything in the final few weeks is under a much closer magnifying glass. There are a few teams who might wish they could have shuffled yesterday's losses into the November mulligan pile.

Bad Losses:

• Miami (FL) all but sealed their NIT fate last night, falling to Florida State 80-67. The Canes join Notre Dame and Georgetown as one of the most disapointing teams in 2009.

• Illinois was starting to gather some momentum as a possible top-4 seed. Last night that came to a clanking halt. Let me emphasize "clank." As in 33 points. Yup, just 33 points. Granted Penn State netted only 38 in what has to be one of the lousier "decent" games of the season.

• Providence wasn't supposed to win at Louisville, but posting another double-digit loss against a formidable foe gives some ammo to the case for leaving out the Friars. One of their only saving graces might be the fact that Georgetown and Notre Dame seemingly refuse to make a late season charge, and the Big East is GOING to get eight teams in...

• Butler dropped another game last night, this time a three point loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Butler peaked in the Top 10, but is looking more like a 10 seed if they don't get it together quickly.

• Someone should volunteer to play defense down in Knoxville. Most people still have the Vols comfortably in the tourney, but they sure are begging the committee to reconsider. Last night they got drubbed 81-65 by Ole Miss to fall to 7-4 in conference. They are 7-7 over their last 14 games overall. The Vols are still in decent shape, but with games still remaining against Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina they can still play themselves out of the tourney.

• Speaking of South Carolina, losing to Mississippi State is not the way to play yourself onto the good side of the bubble. The Gamecocks still have some work to do over the next three weeks.

• Ohio State is the same story; things were looking good until last night's surprising loss to Northwestern. With a few tips and breaks here and there, we wouldn't be talking about Ohio State's bad loss, but perhaps the Wildcats big win. Alas, that was a game the Buckeyes needed to stay in the Big Ten race.

• Perhaps the worst loss of the night was Virginia Tech. The Hokies find themselves in the bubble muddle in the middle of the deep ACC along with Florida State, BC, Miami and Maryland. That made losing to in-state rival Virginia particularly damning for VA Tech.

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Making a Case for Providence

Tonight's win over Syracuse puts Providence at 6-2 in conference and 14-6 overall. Providence looked terrible out of the shoot, losing to a few lesser known opponents. However on further examination of their 2008-09 campaign, they have a much more tournament-worthy resume than some might think.

Their 4 non-conference losses are: Northeastern (who beat VCU last night to grab control of a good Colonial Conferece and will likely dance), Baylor and St. Mary's who will both likely go to the tourney and a tough loss to rival Boston College. Not a great loss, but one they share with North Carolina.

Their two conference losses are to Marquette and Georgetown (a loss that might ultimately put them in the NIT).

The problem comes in a lack of quality wins. Syracuse tonight helps. Aside from that they have Rhode Island and Cincinnati twice. That's it. If they just win games they "should" from here out, they would finish 9-9 in conference. That won't be enough. The good news is if they can get just one of their seven chances and avoid a first-round Big East tourney exit, they will be tough to ignore. If they get two of the seven, they would finish up 20-11 and move into LOCK status.

REMAINING BIG WIN CHANCES:

	Sat, Jan 31	at (2) Connecticut
	Wed, Feb 4	(21) Villanova
	Sat, Feb 7	at West Virginia
	Wed, Feb 18	at (7) Louisville
	Sat, Feb 21	Notre Dame
	Tue, Feb 24	(3) Pittsburgh
	Thu, Mar 5	at (21) Villanova

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Big East Shakeup

OK, so we were half right on our most overrated teams in America proclamation.

Villanova made us eat our words tonight, taking it to Pittsburgh, outscoring them by 15 in the second half. Villanova held their own on the boards and used a stiffling perimeter defense to shut down Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati made us look like geniuses though, giving perplexing Georgetown yet another conference loss. They made a splashy debut blowing out UConn, but since then things have been pretty downhill. The loss tonight drops them to 3-5 in Big East play with their last two losses coming at the hands of Seton Hall and Cincinnati. Despite wins over Memphis, UConn and Syracuse, the Hoyas will wake up tomorrow to find themselves on the precarious bubble. Particualry in light of...

Providence! The much maligned 5-2 Friars were seen as the beneficiary of a soft early conference schedule. Tonight's 100 point perfomance against Syracuse (relax, they gave up 94) has to at least elevate the Friars to serious NCAA consideration. If today were Selection Sunday it would be very difficult to NOT give them the nod over Notre Dame and Georgetown. Who'da thunk it?!?

The Big East might very well get their record setting nine bids - it just may not be the nine everyone assumed it would be.

As of TODAY:
LOCKS: UConn, Louisville, Pitt, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia,
BUBBLE: Notre Dame, Georgetown, Providence, Cincinnati



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Big East Saturday Matchups

A slate of interesting Big East games today will start to give some shape to the uber-competitive conference race.

The first pits Louisville at Villanova. An interesting matchup between the great guard play of the the slightly undersized Wildcats versus the long athletic wings and post players of Louisville. Size matters. (insert your joke here). Louisville captures a much-needed road win to build off the Kentucky win momentum.

West Virginia also visits Marquette in an interesting matchup of the Big East's other two undersized giants. Big men rule the league; Pitt, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown all feature first round draft picks in the paint. Marquette's three best players are under 6'4''. But Dominic James and Jerel McNeal are the best backcourt in the country. It will be enough to hold off a scrappy West Virginia club at home.

Providence is off to a surprising 3-0 start in conference. They travel to Georgetown who opened league play with a Greg Monroe-dominated road win at UConn. They then lost (badly) at Pitt and again at Notre Dame. Providence's wins are over Cincinnati, DePaul and St. John's. Today the records begin trending back towards where they belong as the Hoyas roll over the Friars.