Friday's Sweet Sixteen Predictions

Well, despite overestimating Wazzou's chances against mighty UNC, the Chief Maniac went 4-0 on Thursday (3-1 A.T.S.) Ok, here are my quick picks. I have to go work on the B.J. Raymond statue I am building in my front yard...




#3 Wisconsin v. #10 Davidson

Sadly, my March love-affair with Stephen Curry comes to a close tonight. Davidson is a legitimately good ball club; not just a Cinderella novelty-act. But Wisconsin is a unique good team, and a really tough matchup for any team that relies on controlling tempo to win. Davidson will find shots tough to come by, even for Curry, with a sufficating Wisconsin defense that defends the perimeter as well as any team in the country.

OUTCOME: Wisconsin 67 Davidson 56

#2 Texas v. #3 Stanford

Probably the best game of the tourney so far (especially after Lousiville left Tennessee in the dust last night). Texas boasts one of the best backcourts in the country with DJ Augustine and AJ Abrahams, while Stanford has the premier frontcourt with the Lopez Twins towering at 7' inside. It will be a true match up determined by Stanford's guards ability to contain penetration and knock down open shots when Texas doubles down low.

For Texas, Conner Autchley will be pivotal. If he can stay out of foul trouble and contain Brooke Lopez (who outside of Curry has been the MOP of the tourney thus far), Texas has a real shot.

In the end, I like Stanford's underrated backcourt and the Lopez boys inside in a tough, well played game. And, for the record, doesn't "Robin and Brooke Lopez" sound like two siliconed-out chicks hugging up on each other in a future Playboy issue?? Or is that just me?

OUTCOME: Stanford 74 Texas 73

#1 Kansas v. #12 Villanova

Villanova's pleasant run comes to a close here. Kansas is way to talented, way too big and way too deep for Scottie Reynolds and the "Cats. It is a bad day for Wildcats in general... Kansas continues to be one of three teams yet to be tested (along with UNC and the "Ville)

OUTCOME: Kansas 82 Villanova 65


#1 Memphis v. #5 Michigan St.

There is just something about Tom Izzo coached teams in March. They are always a tough out, and always bounce a few more talented teams along the way. This year has been no exception, tossing heavily touted Pitt (who went "Pitt") in the second round.

This games really hinges on one thing: Can Drew Neitzel and Michigan St handle the pressure and athleticism of the Tigers? It is well documented that Memphis struggles from the line, but in order for that to be a real factor, a team needs to stay within striking range of them (7-10 points). I am not sure Michigan State has the horses to do it.

OUTCOME: Memphis 77 Michigan St. 69

Enjoy the games - check back tomorrow for Elite 8 Breakdowns!!

Who Will Win Thursday?

Thursday Predictions:

#3 Xavier v. #7 West Virginia

Tough one to pick, because of my obvious Xavier bias, but I think the Muskies truly have the edge in this one. X has a much stronger backcourt, with the playmaking and tempo-controlling of Drew Lavender and tenacious defense and will of Stanley Burrell. Add in a versatile post corp, led by Josh Duncan and you have some matchup advantages.

For West Virginia, Joe Alexander can give you some nightmares. The big junior forward has unique ability to dominate a game from any spot on the floor. Curry has been the darling of round one, Kevin Love, Hansbrough and Derrick Rose have bigger names. Joe might be the single most dangerous player left in the tourney.

Also - don't underestimate the bob Huggins impact. He KNOWS Xavier very well, having been a part of the Crosstown Shootout for more than a decade. He will not let his player get lost in the "who are these Ex-ay-vier guys" malaise that can plague Big 6 conference teams.

OUTCOME: Tough match-up, but in the end Xavier's poise, balance and tenacious switching on up top ball screens stifle the Mountaineer's offense. Xavier cans more big free throws late and win by 7. FINAL: Xavier 72, W. VA 65 (BTW - it is Zay-Vyer.. in case you didn't know or are employed by freakin' CBS!!!!)

#1 North Carolina v #4 Washington St.

Tempo, tempo, tempo. UNC wants to push it, run and score. Washington State wants to grind it out and slow it down. It makes for a much more interesting game than many people think. It pits one of the best offensive teams against one of the best defensive teams in the country. Do not be surprised if UNC has some struggles with getting control of the tempo in this game. In the end the athletic wings and inside play of Hansbrough prevail in a lower-than-expected scoring affair.

OUTCOME: UNC 66 - Washington St 62

#1 UCLA v. #12 W. Kentucky

It will be interesting to see how hard UCLA pushes some of their injury problems in this one. Courtney Lee is good, but the most under looked "upset" team of the tourney does little to garner any more headlines. UCLA's explosive guard play and Kevin Love's 20-10 propel the Bruins to one small step away from their 3rd straight Final Four

OUTCOME: UCLA 84 W. Kentucky 58

#3 Louisville v #2 Tennessee

Quite possibly the best game of the night (though UNC v/ Wazzou is better than people realize...) I give the edge to Louisville because of two reasons: 1. The depth and versatility inside to matchup well and control tempo against Tennessee and 2. The inability of Tennessee's guards to handle the pressure or Louisville's defense.

Anyone who watched them struggle to take care of the basketball against Butler (a much less athletic team than the Cards) saw their premier weakness exposed. Louisville should be able to exploit it even more than the Bulldogs.

A little overlooked is Louisville's struggles from the line. Much has been made of the beleaguered efforts of Memphis from the charity stripe, but statistically Louisville is not much better. The difference is that Louisville's dominant ball handlers shoot them at a respectable clip. If they can keep the ball in the right hands late, they should be able to hold off a gritty tough Vol squad.

OUTCOME: Lousiville 82, Tennessee 80

Enjoy the games!

Pool Standings

A Long ways to go, but some interesting scenarios are shaping up. Aaron and Kevin J appear to be out to a good start, and have the mighty Tar Heels cuttin' em down in San Antone' ... but both have significant losses already out of their Final Four's (namely Georgetown and Pitt). Same goes for Pap (curse of living in PA - Pitt ALWAYS does you in early...)

Sitting pretty? John K. Still with in striking range of the top, he leads on the "possibility" chart with both Michigan St, West Virgina, and Stanford all in his Final Eight. With a few good bounces, he could be lapping the field come Saturday morning!

The Commish has it all hanging on a good 'ole Tri-State prayer, with both Louisville and X in the Final Four. It may not be the MOST likely, but certainly NOT impossible. With a few good breaks, he could sow it up early and save the hassle of mailing a check!

Shutley is still a force to be contended with, having Memphis as his champ (have you SEEN these guys from the line though!!) and Tennessee in the Final Four. His standing as of now would net him the cash if Memphis cuts down the nets (maybe we can give them 1/2 a point for hitting the rim??)

Cartwright has a puncher's chance as well with his gutsy SEC-homer pick of the Vols. He is still in it, but smart money says Lofton and crew are sent packing by the depth and defensive pressure of Louisville's guards.

Chandler and Shanda have it all hanging with the Rock Chalk Jayhawk, and the way that bracket broke, both could be sitting pretty 12 days from now... KU beats Nova easy Thursday, but gets a real test from the Badgers (assuming they stave off Stephen and "Cats of Davidson). The possible Memphis-Texas game would separate the two if it happens (Shan has Texas)


Dad (Whitey's Winners) breathed a HUGE sigh of relief when Lopez (the one with the girls name... oh wait...) hit the improbably-angled game winner to keep the Cardinal alive. Pops stays alive as well, but not sure he will be for long with Texas, Memphis and UCLA their potential next three opponents...
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And Gramma... despite having her dreams dashed when Cornell JUST lost to Stanford...and having Pitt (her national Champ) go Pitt (new adjective meaning "to underperorm predicatably in the early rounds of the tourney) , in the 2nd round...and despite losing two other Final Four teams in Georgetown and Duke... well, never mind. Safe to say Gram will have to wait until next year. But on behalf of the entire group, thank you for the ten dollars! (someone print this out and send it to them... it makes the smack talk a little more relevant)

Also a note - Missy, Bill and Judy all have their picks on file with the Commish. I will keep you updated as any of them become relevant to the overall standings down the road, and ALL people who appear to be missing a national champ pick submitted to me in time as well... other than that, the standings you see are LEGIT and GOOD.

Except Tom. Rather than shaft me ten dollars this year, he opted not to submit picks at ALL. But at least he registered. Hope he is a better fisherman than pool-participant!!

Enjoy some GREAT match ups this weekend. Also, be sure to vote and comment on the blog - LOVE to get some good smack talk and hoops chatter going...

While you are there - CLICK THE ADS. It helps pay for the fees and trophies for this monstrosity of a pool... Word.
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ENJOY!
The Chief Maniac

Capping the Sweet Sixteen

After one weekend, here are the most impressive/dangerous teams of the tourney:

1. North Carolina - Is there any doubt? Absolutely steamrolled Arkansas, and showed an amazing ability to control tempo. There are going to need to in order to handle the stifling defense of a very underrated Washington St. squad.

2. Louisville - What a shame they will have to meet the Tar Heels shy of the Final Four. A team with absolute national champion-talent, as evidenced by the controlling domination of a solid Oklahoma squad.

3. Kansas - Yet to be challenged in the Big tourney, rolled through the Big 12 Tourney as well. If Self can stay out of the way, it seems unlikely this team will be stopped short of San Antonio

4. Washington St. - The most anonymous, dangerous team in the tourney. Unfortunatly for them UNC sits on deck. Their scrambling, trapping defense and ability to control tempo held Notre Dame to 41 points Saturday.

5. Wisconsin - The best team in the country that no one os talking about. Handled K-St. and Beasley from the opening tip and cruised into the Sweet 16. The looming match-up with Kansas could be a classic.

6. Xavier - Two solid victories over GA and Purdue. This senior-laden team plays aggressive man to man defense and switches on perimeter ball screens better than any team in the field. They have the versatile bigs to run waves of defenders at Joe Alexander on Thursday.

7. West Virginia - Speaking of Joe Alexander, he and the Mountaineers took it TO the Dookies Saturday. Their agressive, fearless, tenacious style makes for one of the most interesting Sweet 16 matchups that is flying under the radar.

8. UCLA - I know. A&M had them on the ropes. But yet, again, UCLA found a way to pull it out. Collinson and Love are fearless in the clutch and if worse comes to worse they can make the game winner from behind the backboard.

9. Michigan St. - Perhaps a fortunate recipient of the annual Pitt gift-wrapping victory, but no question Neitzel took over that game late and didn't let go.

10. Davidson - Perhaps the run is over after Wisconsin, but has any team brought more excitement and joy to the tourney than the Davidson Wildcats?

11. Texas - The game against Miami wasn't nearly as close of the score, with the Longhorns controlling the game throughout, but the foul foul-shooting is cause for concern

12. Memphis - Speaking of FOUL. Wow. Anyone who sincerely thinks Memphis can win a national title needs only to watch the last two minutes of the Mississippi St. game. You cannot win three or four games in a row holding on for deal life. Sooner or later, it catches up with you. My guess is against Stanford Sunday night.

Just a Little Crush

Player of the Weekend

It's OK.

My wife is cool with it, and I am not the least bit ashamed to say I have a man-crush on Stephen Curry of Davidson. Slightly complicating matters are the fact that he appears to be no more than 14 years old...but that is an issue for another day.

I think it is balanced out by my wife twice asking if Stephen Curry's Mom was "Brooke Burke." (If you don't know who that is - google her NOW)

Curry's performance over the weekend went from spectacular after his 40 point outburst against Gonzaga, to timeless after dropping another thirty today and dropping the second-seeded Hoyas in dramatic double-digit comeback fashion. On Friday, I sat screaming at my TV while watching Curry torpedo the Zags "Move over Brice Drew." Today, it is becoming move over Christian Laettner.

Ok, that's a bit much - but consider what Curry and his Davidson Wildcats have already accomplished: Not only did they win the school's first NCAA Tourney game in 39 YEARS (I believe that team was coached by Lefty Dreisell - I'll need Poppa Maniac to verify that one...) They now sit squarely in the Sweet 16, the most talked about team in the nation. Regardless of HOW the game against Wisconsin turns out Davidson has left their indelible time-stamp on all that is good about March Madness.

Not that Curry's success is a shock to true college hoops fans; we already knew he was good. (see here) it is just that few knew he could be this good on this big of a stage. In two games, two dramatic comeback upset wins Curry has tossed in fifty five second half points. That alone would rank him among the tourney leaders.

Watching Curry and teammates leaping chest-bumps reminded me of my 14-under AAU team, he looks like a kid, full of joy and most of all, full of big shot, fearless moxy.

My new favorite player, and thousands of people across the country's as well... Player of the Opening Weekend, no doubt, Stephen Curry.