Bracketeering - November Pre-Thanksgiving Turkey Shoot

There is something exhilarating about the Thanksgiving edition of Bracketeering each season.  The season is young enough that imense room for speculation still prevails, however there have been just enough small slivers of hoops action against semi-reasonable competition that complete disdain for the pollsters is already allowable.

It is with that smug spirit of contrarianism that we shall embark on the season innagural edition of Bracketeering!  As always, comments, feedback and profanity-laced anatomically-challenging emails and posts are thoroughly enjoyed and welcomed...

FINAL FOUR:

#1 Kentucky - I'll spare you the email; YES, I was the guy who joked "time to start writing the 'Final Four Banners taken DOWN from the Rafters' story" within minutes of Coach Cal's hiring.  Well, so far he has proven me half correct; there is a Final Four banner in the rafters.  And in my opinion, it's likely another will be joining it this season.  As far as the "taking it down" part, there is no evidence to suggest Calipari has made even the slightest errant step in Lexington.  However, for those of you who were history majors in college...you know what they say about its repetition...

Anyhow - This is easily my favorite Kentucky team since Tubby Smith was in the Bluegrass.  The Gilespie Era was an abject trainwreck.  The John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins team was too erratic and immature (and frankly, just not a likeable mesh of players), and last year's Final Four team was nearly as ugly, and not nearly a Final Four caliber team most of the season aside from the final two weekends.  This team is different than the past two editions of isolation and dribble drive, force up shots and buy time until the NBA Draft rolls around Kentucky basketball.   Marquis Teague is a similarly top-ranked prep point guard, but he is more in the distributor mode than either John Wall or Brandin Knight.  Terrance Jones is a year more seasoned and provides a legitimate first-team All-American swing/power forward with some ferocity, and Doron Lamb is the team's most reliable shooter and scorer from the perimter.

The real difference maker, and where I give them the slight edge over North Carolina is the addition of freshman Anthony Davis.  Watching his fourteen point, seven block domination over Kansas, I couldn't help but make the extrapolation that he is going to give Zeller and Henson absolute fits.  Terrance Jones should be a decent defensive match on Barnes, and from 1 to 8, Kentucky actually has a slight athleticism advantage of the uber-athletic Heels.

The nice thing is, this will get settled on the court in less than ten days. Until then, give me the Cats in the top slot.

#2 North Carolina - They are everyone's #1 for a reason.  They are absolutely loaded.  Barnes returned after a slow-starting, but quietly spectacular freshman season and should vie with Jared Sullinger for national player of the year honors in 2012.  The inside duo of Henson and Zeller are as talented as any frontcourt in the nation (though I am not sold on their interior defensive presence; yes Henson is a good shot blocker, but is he really going to body a Jared Sullinger out of the lane??), and Marshall Strickland is a fantastic distributor who looks up the floor better than any collegiate guard in the country.

When looking at a team than is going to struggle to find minutes for McDonald's All-American freshman James McAdoo because of the dearth of talent, identifying flaws is obviously a nit-picking venture.  However, nitpick I shall... this is not a perfect team in the mold of the two national championship teams in the Roy Williams era.  Zeller has developed some pretty moves, but is nowhere near the reliable 'dump it in the post every time down the floor' scoring option that Tyler Hansbrough was.  I'd grade him significantly behind Sean May in that regard as well.  This team is also devoid of a defensive wing stopper in the mold of a Danny Green or Raymond Felton.  And the outside shooting of the 2011-2012 Heels??  Let's just say they'd be wise to keep it up tempo and run run run.

This sounds like we're down on the Heels.  Not true.  In fact, to have this team anywhere outside of the Top Three is being contrarian for the sake of being obnoxious.  And at MarchManiacs, we are obnoxious for completely independent reasons.  UNC is fantastically talented, and I'm not sure either national championship team had a player with the beautiful slashing and mid-range game of Harrison Barnes.  He has the ability to elevate this team from "fantastic" to "transcendent." 

However, as stated above, until next weekend I'm cautiously parking the Heels just behind Coach Cal's Big Blue.

#3 Duke - Every flaw you could find about North Carolina?  Flip them when discussing the Blue Devils.  Duke has plenty of size and toughness inside.  But no one even close to the feathery touch and deft post moves of Tyler Zeller.  North Carolina has the consummate distributor and playmaker at point guard.  Duke, in very un-Duke like fashion, has a makeshift point guard committee, with the primary ballhandling responsibilities falling to sharp shooter Seth Curry.

And perimeter shooting?  Not an issue for the Dukies.  Although Austin Rivers's shot selection still leaves a bit to be desired (more on that later), shooting from behind the arc is something this team will do as well as any team in the nation.  Curry and Andre' Dawkins can flat-out knock it down.  Rivers is potentially deadly albeit streaky, and no 6'11' player in the country shoots as well from distance as Duke's Brian Kelly.

In fact, Kelly is the primary reason I elevated the Blue Devils to #3.  Through three weeks, no player in the country has shown more improvement from last season than Kelly.  His ability to put the ball on the floor as well as spot up from three-point range makes him an incredibly versatile and difficult to defend weapon.  His shooting ability prevents teams from shading help to the corners to help on perimeter shooters, and balances the relatively limited ability of the Plumlee boys from anywhere beyond three feet of the rim (especially the foul line... bletch!).  This also allows for Mason and Miles to do what they do best; rebound.  Having a 6'11'' guy pulling a big away from the rim creates fantastic put-back jam opportunities, which they have each capitalized on several times this season in big moments.

The danger for Duke lies in the early tendency of freshman Austin Rivers to take about four or five ridiculous shots per game.  So far, Coach K has seemed surprisingly patient with the frosh's shot selection, and his teammates have been typically plucky Duke supporters, clapping and cheering their teammate on.  But at some point, in a big moment or as a tight tough game starts to slip away, you have to wonder if some of the frustration and tension might surface.  So far, so good... but when it does become a story in a month or two, remember you read it at MarchManiacs.com back before Thanksgiving...

#4 Ohio State -  I'll be the first to caution giddy Buckeye fans not to overlook the impact of the loss of defensive wizard David Lighty and his tremendous contribution in the "little things" department.  However when likely Top 3 NBA Draft pick (if not #1 overall) Jared Sullinger surprises everyone and decides to return for his sophomore season, a little exuberance is to be tolerated.

And even though the school's alltime leader in 3-pointers made, Jon Diebler and sixth man tough-guy Dallas Lauderdale have also graduated, don't weep to openly for Coach Matta.  The cupboard is far from bare in Columbus.  Look for senior William Buford to fill in some of the scoring gaps (he was the team's unheralded second-leading scorer in 2011) and for Aaron Craft to continue to blossom in his sophomore season, evolving nicely into a gritty floor leader in the Chris Kramer+Jordan Taylor mold (to blend two Big Ten guards into a nice visual package for you).

6'7'' swingman Deshaun Thomas is a burgeoning star waiting to explode on to the scene for the Buckeyes, and while he won't make anyone forget David Lighty, he will certainly make the loss much less painful.

I have the Buckeyes in my Final Four, but a clear peg behind North Carolina and Kentucky.  However, come March, I'm not sure they won't be that team that everyone takes a liking to as the #1 seed to pick for people shying away from the wire-to-wire darlings in Chapel Hill and Lexington.

Elite Eight:

We will dig in to each of these ballclubs in further detail in the not-so-distant future, but for brevity sake (I think this column is pushing 2000 words...) let's list 'em out quickly...

#5 - UConn - This year's team might actually be better than last year's surprising national champs.  Jeremy Lamb is a legitimate National POY candidate.

#6 - Missouri - Their breakneck tempo and outstanding backcourt of Denmon and English could be the class of the Big 12.

#7 - Wisconsin - Granted, they haven't been sternly tested yet, but holding teams to under 38 ppg is an impressive defensive effort, even for a Bo Ryan coached squad.  Add in the best point guard (when factoring in both ends of the court) in the country in Jordan Taylor, and you have a pretty good recipe for success.

#8 - Syracuse - Some questions remain on the perimeter, but Boeheim has yet another talented squad in Syracuse.  Hopefully the allegations swirling around their longtime assistant coach prove meritless... for the sake of not just the alleged victims but college basketball fans everywhere.

Sweet and Lurking:

#9 - Louisville - Can Kyle Couric lead this team to the top of the Big East?  The Card fan favorite has been excellent in the early season, but Pitino and crew will need some solid play from their big guys if they want to hang with UConn and Syracuse in the Big East.

#10 - Baylor - The most talented team in the Big 12, but I don't recall seeing them in the NCAA tourney last year, do you??

#11 - Alabama - Maybe Purdue is just worse than I thought, but watching Anthony Grant's team get after the Boilermakers defensively was impressive.  I'd be stunned if this team is left out of the Big Dance again in 2012.

#12 - Florida - It's hard to hold a loss to Ohio State against them too badly.  I am still not in love with their smallish backcourt, but the emergence of freshman Brad Beal will infuse a much-needed big time scorer jolt into that lineup.

#13 - Xavier - Tu Holloway is a true big time lead guard, cut from the mold of a Kemba Walker.  Coach Mack hopes he can generate a similar result.  Xavier plays a spectacular out-of-conference schedule that includes Gonzaga, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Memphis and Cincinnati (not to mention Long Beach State, who could prove a dangerous trap game), so we will get to find out pretty quickly just how legit the beast of the A-10 is as a Final Four contender in 2012.

#14 - Gonzaga - Elias Harris and Robert Sacre give the Zags one of the better veteran tandems in the country.  Is 6'1'' freshman Kevin Pangos going to be able to continue to light it up from the outside to the tune of 18+ a night?

#15 - Vanderbilt - Yes, I know.  They lost at home to Cleveland State.  It was a bad loss.  However, this is still one of the better teams in the country, especially once they get Festus Azili back from his six-game NCAA-imposed suspension.  John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor combine for one of the best backcourt running mates in the country.  The Commodores early season play doesn't earn them a Top 16 slot; even that 2-point win last night over Oregon State was sketchy... but I am still going to stick with Vandy and hope to be rewarded come February and March...

#16 - St. Louis - I always like to take a flyer on someone at the sixteenth slot, so let's really go for it to kick off the season.  The Billikens beat the nonsense out of both Southern Illinois and Washington already this season, and have a legit chance to win their Thanksgiving tournament that tips off tomorrow against Boston College.  Xavier is the class of the A10, and Temple has the bigger name, but don't be surprised is Saint Louis is ranked by season's end and a lock for an NCAA Tourney appearance.

Previewing the East Region

East Region

So much for being the #1 overall seed.  Ohio State’s reward for the honor?  Try the bracket most littered with landmines as they attempt to tackle the toughest region in this year’s tournament. 

North Carolina, Syracuse, and Kentucky all enter the tournament playing their best basketball of the season, all boast rosters with NBA talent, and all have the size, quickness, scoring and athleticism needed to make a Final Four run.  Compare those three to the Southeast: Florida (who got hammered by Kentucky in the SEC Final), BYU (whose second best player is suspended and just got hammered by San Diego State in the MWC Final), and Wisconsin who scored THIRTY THREE points in their last game.

Not sure what the committee was thinking with those two brackets.  It certainly leaves a lot of room for conjecture and debate.

What can’t be debated is the depth of talent in the East.  West Virginia is an interesting #5 seed.  They were not spectacular most of the season, and their roster certainly doesn’t leap off the page, but they do own wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Georgetown, Louisville, UConn and Notre Dame.

George Mason could very well be “this year’s George Mason.”  The Patriots are much better overall than the team that made the miracle run back in 2006.  Throw in Xavier, Princeton, Marquette and Washington and you are looking at one ridiculous bracket.

Ten Best Players in the East Region:

Jared Sullinger (Ohio State), Isaiah Thomas (Washington), Harrison Barnes (UNC), Kris Joseph (Syracuse), Tu Holloway (Xavier), Terrance Jones (Kentucky), David Lighty (Ohio State), Tyler Zeller (UNC), William Buford (Ohio State)

First Round Matchups:

#1 Ohio State vs. #16 UT San Antonio/Alabama St.

Next.

#8 George Mason v. #9 Villanova

Villanova is in an absolute free-fall, losers of 11 of their final 16, including a first-round Big East Tourney loss to lowly South Florida.  George Mason would be my tournament darling if not for an unfortunate draw opposite Ohio State.  I love the Patriots getting the win over ‘Nova.

#5 West Virginia  v. #12 UAB/Clemson

I’m honestly stunned UAB is in the field.  Alabama, Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s and Colorado would all have been more worthy selections.  Clemson apparently got just enough late, making it to the Final Four in the ACC Tourney, losing in OT to North Carolina.  I think they used up the remaining gas in their tank – I like UAB advancing, only to get sent home by the Mountaineers.

#4 Kentucky  v. #13 Princeton

This will be another popular upset pick – don’t fall for it.  Remember what happened when the smart, scrappy, underrated Ivy League team (Cornell) met the Wildcats last year?  Yeah, it wasn’t pretty.  Neither will this one.  Wildcats big.

#6 Xavier v #11 Marquette

Xavier always out-performs their seed in the NCAA Tourney.  Marquette is a tough opening draw, but I think Tu Holloway can pace the X-Men to yet another NCAA Tournament win. 

#3 Syracuse v. #14 Indiana State

The Sycamores did a great job knocking off Wichita State and Missouri State en route to the surprising Missouri Valley championship.  However, both of those teams would have given Syracuse a much more entertaining game.  Indiana State has no clue about the length and quickness of the match-up zone that is about to be unleashed on them.  Besides, Larry Bird is out of eligibility.

#7 Washington  v. #10 Georgia

The rumblings over Georgia’s inclusion and overly-high seed will get louder after Washington and Isaiah Thomas run them right off the floor.  It’s honestly hard to justify how the 8-8 Bulldogs got in over the 12-4 Alabama Crimson Tide, who beat Georgia twice, including a blowout win in the SEC Quarters…  Gimme Washington 80-something to Georgia’s low 70’s output.

#2 North Carolina  v. #15 Long Island

 

Long Island is a nice story, but the fairy tale ends quickly against the tremendous size and athleticism of the Tar Heels

Moving Through the Region:

Ohio State will cruise to the Sweet Sixteen, though George Mason will make them earn it.  I like Kentucky avenging last year’s Elite Eight loss to West Virginia, setting up a nice Kentucky-Ohio State rivalry game in the Sweet Sixteen.  In the bottom half, give me Xavier upsetting Syracuse, and North Carolina narrowly dodging Washington in one of the Tourney’s most exhilarating games.

In the Elite 8, Ohio State v. Kentucky will be another classic, but I like Ohio State’s poise and superior perimeter shooting ousting the Wildcats.  Xavier’s run ends at the hands of the ultra-talented Tar Heels, setting up a brilliant regional final.

Ohio State is the best team in the country, in my opinion, and is a tough matchup for the Heels.  Both teams feature outstanding freshman point guards, and it will be a blast to watch Craft and Marshall square off.  Sullinger against the UNC bigs will be spectacular as well.  In the end, I think the defensive brilliance of David Lighty will fluster UNC frosh sensation Harrison Barnes, and that the Heels will lose track of Diebler in transition a few too many times to advance. 

SOUTHEAST CHAMP: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

UPSET PICKS:

Xavier, with Washington being a dangerous sleeper

Stock Up, Stock Down - Updating the VERY Fluid Bubble Picture

Selection Sunday is barely three weeks away and the scramble for position is starting to heat up.  Here's a quick recap of who helped their cause in the last five days and who is beginning to teeter.

STOCK UP:

Kansas State - The Wildcats saved their season Monday night with a convincing win over #1 Kansas.  Kudos to Jimmy Dykes of ESPN, who before the game said that if State had any chance of pulling the upset, senior Jacob Pullen needed to have a "Jimmer Fredette game." 

Pullen did just that, scoring a career-high 37 points.  The win resurects the Wildcats tourney life...for now.  Those two losses to Colorado are still a tough hurdle to overcome, particualrly if the Buffaloes can finish strong.

Boston College - I'm still not sold on the Eagles tourney worthiness, but their 76-72 win over Maryland moves them into much better position in the down ACC.

North Carolina - The Tarheels are still a Top 4 seed in the Maniac's book.  Their road win at Clemson all but assured them second place in the ACC, and put the final nail in Clemson's already weak NCAA chances.

Colorado State - Don't look now, but the Rams are one of the nation's most surprising at-large contenders.  I am not sure if the MWC can pull four bids, so it is imperative they keep pace with UNLV these last three weeks.  Saturday's win over New Mexico was enormous for CSU, and the final nail in Coach Alford's New Mexico Lobos' coffin.

The Rams still control their own destiny.  The host UNLV, and travel to BYU and San Diego State in three of their final five games.  Take two of those three and avoid any slip-ups and the Rams are in.  Easier said than done, but if you would have told and CSU fans the previous scenario back in November, I assure you they'd have taken it with a huge grin.

Temple - The Owls went on the road and hammered Dayton.  The Owls are all but a lock at this point, and have a shot at creeping as high as a #5 or #6 if they finish strong (which they seem to do every year).

Florida - We wrote about the Florida v. Tennessee game at length, so no need to rehash the ugliness.  But for Billy D, the Gators are nearing lock status.  With a stong finish they could creep as high as a #4, however with a tailspin they could slide all the way down to the #9-#10 range.

Memphis - Back to back wins over Southern Miss and UAB (Sat & Wed) all but clinch the Tigers as a tourney team in the Maniac's book.

St. John's - Lavin and the Johnnies got a huge win, 59-57 at Cincinnati Sunday.  ESPN has them as a #7 currently.  The followed up the win with a 80-68 win over Marquette - a huge win made even bigger by how much it damaged their fellow Big East bubble denizen's chances  We still have them holding in the #9 range - but definitely a tourney team barring a late collapse. 

Cincinnati - Yes, they lost in the aforementioned game, but the Wednesday pasting of Louisville moves the Bearcats into really good position to capture a well-deserved tenth bid for the Big East.


Virginia Tech - The Hokies are making a late surge towards finally ending up on the right side of the bubble.  Sunday's 102-74 win over Georgia Tech was an impressive offensive display.  Tuesday's pasting of Maryland moves them even closer, and they are beginning to separate them from the ACC bubble pack. 

Butler - The Bulldogs are making a furious rush to get back in the at-large discussion.  They've now won five straight, including wins over Wisc-Milwaukee, Wright State and Cleveland State to climb back to 11-5 in the Horizon League.


STOCK DOWN:

Duquesne - The Dukes tourney hopes took a devestating blow with Saturday's home loss to Xavier.  It isn't so much that the loss is bad more than it was the Dukes one great chance to earn a validating win that slipped through their fingers.  Despite their 11-2 A10 record, they still have only one Top 50 win to their resume (and eight losses).

Southern Miss & UAB - Both fell victim to conference bully Memphis this week; their respective tournament hopes might have fallen victim with the losses.  Neither is dead, but both have a huge road ahead of them, particularly Southern Miss who is nearing "must win the conference tourney" status.

Northern Iowa - Their at-large hopes gasped their last breath Saturday in their 18-point home loss to Wichita State.  The Shockers are looking good for March; the Panther will need to pull a shocker if they hope to Dance again this year.

UNLV - The Reb's missed a golden opportunity Saturday, losing 63-57 at home to San Diego State.  UNLV needs to finish strong to earn a third bid for the MWC (and hold off Colorado State).

Georgia - The Bulldogs Wednesday night loss to Vandy was a damaging one.  Georgia falls to 6-5 in the SEC and just 17-8 overall.  It's fair to say they MUST win one of their next two games; at Tennessee and at Florida to stay in the tourney picture.

When RPI's Lie

It isn't the first, and it probably isn't the lastg column the Maniac will subject you decrying the many flaws of the RPI system - but let me quickly clarify.  RPI isn't a bad tool, it is just a little too flawed to be the end-all be-all instrument so many of the talking heads on TV make it out to be.

For one, it fails to measure any consideration of how well/poorly a team actually played in a particular win or loss.  For example, Penn State's road loss at Purdue by one point on a last second buzzer beater by likely first team All American JuJuan Johnson is worth as little to the Nittany Lions as is Iowa's 75-52 defeat.

However for all it's foibles, I haven't found (nor do I have any desire to create) a better, more consistent and effective tool for accounting for strength of schedule and opponent quality rather than merely just wins and losses.

Here are a couple teams that jump out to me as either too high or too low, according to the RPI poll on February 2nd.

The Highs:

#2 - BYU:  Look, I like, ne', love, Jimmer Fredette as much as everyone else.  But I find it nearly impossible to completely trust a poll that has BYU #2... or so I thought.  Upon further review the Cougars, at 21-2 overall, own impressive wins over Arizona, UCLA, St. Mary's, Creighton, UNLV and San Diego State.  That's actually a pretty impressive hall.  They are certainly worthy of Top Ten status, but any ranking higher than six or seven for the Cougs is still a little too high.

#14 - North Carolina:  I've been banging this drum for about two weeks now, but Carolina is actually good...a really close to being really good.  Their RPI reflects our instinct here as well; Carolina is a Top 4 seed if the season ended today.

#20 - St. John's:  Look, the Duke win might end up getting the Johnnie's to the Tourney.  But #20?!?  Are you serious?  They have eight losses and are tied for 11th place in their own conference.

And Lows:

#68 - Duquesne:  Sick of hearing about the Dukes yet??  In all seriousness, at 16-5, 8-0 in the seventh or eighth best conference in the country makes #68 offensively low.  Then factor in the four of the five losses are to Penn State, George Mason, West Virginia and Pitt, and it is really hard to see this team anywhere lower than mid-forties at worst.

#84 - Gonzaga:  Same exact logic as above; good team with excellent losses.  The Zags are still a strong at-large contender in my book, forget the RPI in the 80's - it's absurd.  Especially when you see teams like Kansas State and Michigan State fiftysomething spots ahead.

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Quick Rundown of a few of the Night's Biggest Wins

Bubble talk usually focuses more on the disappointing aspect rather than the optimistic; meaning it's usually only the "bubble" if a team has under achieved.  However, the bubble goes both ways, so here's a quick rundown of some teams that helped the NCAA chances with good wins this week.

Some of you have politely pointed out that the Maniac is a moron and that Southern Miss isn't any good and that Conference USA isn't getting multiple bids into the tourney.  Those of you (and you know who you are!) who have been so kind as to email your, um, "concerns" might be right on #1 and #3, but not the middle morsel of information.  Southern Miss is a good ballclub.  And tonight they earned what might turn out to be a season-saving win, knocking off UAB in Birmingham 75-71. 

The win moves Southern Miss to 17-5 (6-3) and a half-game ahead of UAB, Memphis and UTEP atop the conference standings.  If the NCAA had truly sold out for the monster payday and expanded the tourney to 96, no doubt all four of these teams would be dancing.  However, at the current 68 it is going to be a close call down the stretch for all four.  A win on the road over one of your prime competitors is enormous.

The Maniac continues to stand on an island regarding the Golden Eagles and their tourney merit.  Not one single major media outlet, ESPN, FOx Sports, CBS, Yahoo - have included them in a single mock bracket all season.  I'm sure I'll get a few wrong, but when they DO earn their at-large bid, feel free to Tweet of my incomparable hoops genius...

In the Maniac's bracket, I have both Southern Miss AND UAB in, with Memphis being in the first four out.  UTEP probably has the longest odds, despite having an identical record to Memphis and UAB, because of their lack of any significant non-conference wins.

In the Atlantic 10 the Maniac's second pet team for 2011, the Duquesne Dukes kept doing what they have all season -  absolutely obliterate conference opponents.  This time the victim was George Washington by an 84-59 tally.  With Xavier's surprising loss at Charlotte, Duquesne moves into sole possession of the conference lead at a perfect 8-0.

In the ACC, two of the teams we thought would be good, then looked bad early so we wrote off as lousy, are actually pretty good again.  Make sense?

Virginia Tech continued their profile rehab, winning 77-69 at NC State.  The win lifted the Hokies to 15-6 (5-3).  Their non-conference losses to Kansas State, UNLV and Purdue do little to damage their overall resume.  If they can scrape back to 11-5 or even 10-6, they should have little to be nervous about on Selection Sunday.

Meanwhile North Carolina handled their business last night on the road at Boston College, winning easily and very impressively, 106-74, to run their league record to a tidy 6-1.  That's good for a first place tie with the much heralded Dukies (Duke moved a half-game back in front with tonight's win over Maryland).

Harrison Barnes had a season-high 26 points and is showing glimpses of being the player everyone expected him to be instantly.  Instead, his matuaration process has taken some time to evolve; and is still evolving, but as his play continues to improve Carolina is growing into a multi-dimensional team with a ton of length and talent. 

In our latest Bracketeering we have the Tarheels projecting to the #4 line - not too far off of where long-forgotten lofty expectations were prior to the season...


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10 Under the Tree - The Early Season's Most Interesting Storylines are the Perfect Christmas Gift

Each year as the calendar reaches Christmas and lunges forward toward the new year, the national landscape has inevitably shifted dramatically from what all the "geniuses" and "experts" had just mere months ago believed to be true.  There are always a few pleasant surprises and a few disappointments, and with respect to Denny Green, some teams "are who we thought they were."

Take Duke for example.  The Devils entered the season at #1 and have done nothing to even remotely dissuade the pollsters.  Even with the uncertainty surrounding freshman point guard sensation Kyrie Irving's toe it is hard to compile any form of rankings that doesn't have the Blue Devils atop the list.  Their schedule may not have been the most difficult, but with wins over Michigan State, Kansas State, Butler and Marquette it's hard to argue they haven't been tested.  Even Duke's gimme games are against better opponents than some of the Big 12 and BEast giants have fattened up on.

For the most part, the power conferences expected to be strong have not disappointed.  The Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East comprise more than 60% of this week's Top 25, and each have several additional teams sitting right on the cusp of the Top 25.

In fact, after Butler's celebrated "rise of the little guys "run last March, this season is as devoid of any non-BCS conference contenders as any in recent memory.  Butler, Xavier and Gonzaga, three of the most reliable mid-majors, have all struggled and are considerably off their recent top form.  Memphis, who despite never being lumped in with the other "mid-majors" is coming off a season where they missed the tourney for the first time in nearly a decade.   If this season's struggles continue, they might soon find themselves lumped in with the other have-nots in terms of public perception, relegated to "Mid Major Top 10's" and other such previously "beneath them" relegations.  Second tier mid-major darlings like Siena, Creighton, Virginia Commonwealth, Winthrop, and Davidson all seem devoid of the magic that lingered over the past few seasons.   Sadly, the national landscape is significantly lacking in mid-major excitement.

For better or worse, let's take a look at March Maniac's 10 Most Intriguing Story lines of the young season:

10.  UCF Cracks Top 25 - Watching Marcus Jordan and the Knights vanquish instate foes Florida, Miami and South Florida it is hard to imagine how the coaches had them tabbed 10th in the preseason C-USA poll.  Yes, Conference USA is deeper and much improved, with Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB and UTEP all solid.  It is still evident the coaches really fanned on this one.  With four quality wins under their belts already, it isn't out of the realm of possibility the Knights could qualify as an at-large selection if need be come March.

9.  The SEC Worst...er "West" - Thank goodness for the East or else the SEC would have a difficult time contending they are even among the top 10 conferences in the country.  Ole Miss and Mississippi State could be decent, the same goes for Arkansas...however the fact remains that these six collectively already boast losses North Texas, Nicholls State, Coastal Carolina, Samford, UNC Ashville, Campbell, Presbyterian, Florida Atlantic, St. Peters's and East Tennessee State.  Auburn and Alabama have been abysmal, LSU has stunk even with their typical lousy schedule.  Ditto for Arkansas.  It's looking like a long wait until football season for a lot of fans in SEC country.

8.  The Toe You Know - Two months ago, Kyrie Irving was relatively unknown outside of die-hard college hoop fans.  After exploding on the scene against Kansas State and Michigan State, thoroughly outplaying All-Americans Jacob Pullen and Kalin Lucas in the process, Kyrie was edging himself into national POY status - despite sharing the Duke spotlight with established stars like Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.

Now, the prospects of Duke making a run at perfection seems to hinge largely on the "will he, won't he" return status around his nebulous injured toe. 

Regardless of how it shakes out, here's hoping we get to see Kyrie one more year in Durham playing alongside Austin Rivers and all three Plumlee boys...

7.  The BEast Still Roars - There was some speculation that this might be a down year for the Big East, or at least a year when the Big Ten and Big 12 can borrow a little of the shine.   As Big Ten alumnus Lee Corso likes to say, "not so fast my friend!"

Of the seven remaining undefeated teams in the nation, three reside in the BEast.  What makes that even more impressive is that these three do NOT include Pitt, Georgetown or Villanova, all who possess the talent to land in the Final Four.  UConn and Syracuse have dazzled this year, not only winning every game but beating quality opponents convincingly.  Cincinnati is one of the nation's surprises at 12-0.  The Bearcats take some knocks for the light schedule, but I became a believer after watching them double up a quality Dayton club 68-34.

Add in Louisville, West Virginia, Marquette and Notre Dame who have all played fantastic and you are once again looking at a league with nine or ten elite ballclubs.

Aside from St. John's and seemingly permanently sluggish DePaul, it's hard to label any team in the BEast a disappointment thus far in 2010.

6.  Freshman Leading the Way - Take a look at the top of the polls and you'll find a number of elite teams  being led by some simply stunning freshman.  Jared Sullinger has Ohio State looking like the team most capable of taking down the Dukies.  If I had a ballot (still waiting for mine...hmmm), Sullinger is my vote for National POY.  Duke's Kyrie Irving has been flawless (get well soon Kyrie), and Kentucky has an entirely new cast of characters, but is achieving the same fantastic results, powered largely by three freshman including standout PF Terrance Jones.

Don't be surprised if the year ends with at least two freshman on the All-American team

5.  Carolina Blues - Last year's fiasco was supposed to be a quick blip on the radar, a one season anomaly to be erased completely this Fall with the arrival of freshman phenom Harrison Barnes.  To this point, Barnes has struggled mightily and the Tarheels are plagued by the same problems as a year ago; terrible play from the point and the lack of consistent offensive production from their wings.  Carolina salvaged what could have been a disastrous preconference season with the win over Kentucky, but at 8-4 and their second-best win a squeaker over Charleston at home they need to go at least 10-8 in ACC play to get a tourney invite.  Someone send Roy a box of Kleenex for Christmas... he might really need 'em.

4.  Speaking of the ACC...and Who Would Want To? - The WCC has long been known as "Gonzaga and the Other Guys."  This year, the ACC might more aptly fit the bill, substitute "Duke" for Gonzaga.  Virginia Tech was allegedly the second best team in the conference.  They raised their level of schedule this year, in response to being narrowly omitted from the past two NCAA tournaments.  Schedule strength only helps if you win a few of the games.  At 7-4, the Hokies find themselves in all-too-familiar territory; needing to win in conference to avoid popping once again on the dreaded bubble.

3.  Kings of the Mountain - Move over Pac-10, the Mountain West is clearly the class of the West this year.  San Diego State has risen all the way to #7 in the polls and the ranking isn't a fluke.  Kawhi Leonard and company are big, quick and deep enough to make a serious run at the Final Four. 

BYU returns senior scoring machine Jimmer Fredette, and UNLV has navigated an extremely challenging preconference schedule pretty well with wins over VA Tech, Kansas State and Wisconsin, and a quality loss to Louisville on the road.  The one point loss to UCSB is a head scratcher, but as we like to remind folks on March Maniacs, nearly every teams will use their mulligan somewhere along the way. 

Even New Mexico, Utah and Air Force put decent squads on the floor making the MWC not only the best conference out west, but arguably the fourth best conference in the country this season.  (Behind only Big 12, Big Ten and the BEast).

2.  The Benefits and the Doubt - Improper benefits have been the buzzword this season in college hoops.  Let's hope there aren't many more to deal with before tourney time, but it seems inevitable one or two more issues will crop up.  Enis Kanter was denied eligibility by the NCAA, and unless a surprising reversal occurs in the next week, Kentucky will never get the 7-foot Turkish big man into Wildcat blue.  Josh Selby's much anticipated debut had to wait until last week before the Kansas PG was cleared to play after serving his
suspension for accepting improper benefits (to the tune of less than $1,000 in travel allowance). 

Tennessee finds themselves in the most unique predicament, as Bruce Pearl has been suspended by the SEC (not the NCAA) for the first eight games of conference play.  Due to a scheduling anomaly, Pearl WILL coach the UConn game that falls in the midst of the first eight conference games.  For everyone's sake, let's hope the talk from here on out focuses more ON the court and a whole lot less on what is happening off it.

1.  Can Duke Run the Table and Repeat as National Champs?

Before Kyrie Irving injured his toe, I would have contended not only do they have a shot, I think they will in fact run the table.  I wrote as much in a column immediately after the Kansas State game.  Not only is Duke a very complete a ballclub this year, the ACC is truly lousy and devoid of a worthy rival.

After the injury?  I'm still not backing off.  Duke can run the table and be the first undefeated National Champ since Bobby Knight's Hoosiers 35 years ago.  With Nolan Smith, Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry the Blue Devils still have plenty of ball handling and perimeter offense.  Placing Kyle Singler at the four essentially gives them a fourth point guard to help handle any pressure and create good looks at the basket.

I love this team and how it is constructed.  The most interesting thing about Duke?  They won the title last year.  This year's team is better.  Next year?  The team will be EVEN BETTER than this squad with the arrival of Austin Rivers and the third Plumlee brother (a 7-footer to boot!)

Duke has several landmines they'll need to avoid; Carolina on the road is an electric environment and a rivalry game where you can throw out the team's records and know a battle is coming.  Likewise trips to Florida State have historically given Coach K fits.  I don't see any game for the rest of the regular season in which the Devils won't be considerable favorites heading into the game.  Perfection is within their grasp, even if Kyrie doesn't return.

Weekend Review - ACC Jan 10th

The salvo Georgia Tech fired across Duke's bow Saturday has to resonate leaguewide.  The message?  The ACC is more wide open than it has been in a decade.  Duke loses their road opener and North Carolina has looked incredibly vulnerable in the young season.  I wrote several weeks ago that #3 through #11 this league was as jumbled as any.  Perhaps it should be ammended to #1-#12; i.e. top to bottom.

Clemson handled their homecourt with ease, downing Boston College 72-56.  The win was a nice bounce back for the Tigers after their opening loss in Cameron.  The game of the day was Miami defeating Wake Forest 77-76 at home.  Both teams look like NCAA Tournament teams to me, though there is still a long way to go in a brutal conference slate.  Miami, unranked as of yesterday, is off to a 15-1 start.  Might it be view the Canes as legitimate conference title challengers?

The ACC has long played some of their finer confernce games on Sunday night.  While most people were watching the NFL, Maryland got a huge win, 77-68 over Florida State.  It seems the Terps are annually on the bubble and the non-conference performance leads you to believe it might be more of the same in 2010.  Conference wins will be huge, and it is important to win at home if you want to dance in March.

Carolina pulled away late and got a got win over a better than advertised Virginia Tech ballclub, 78-64.  And speaking of bubble, Seth Greenburg's Hokies are annual staddlers as well.  With Miami and FSU up next, they can ill-afford a 0-3 conference start and will need to knock off one of them.

Lastly, hats off to Virginia.  The Cavs were largely picked last in the preseason but won their opener 70-62 over NC State, on the road no less.  Let's not get hasty booking tourney plans, but it seems that all 12 teams will be capable of winning, and losing, on any night.

Team Up:  Virginia, Maryland, Miami
Team Down:  Boston College, NC State

Week ahead highlights:  Maryland @ Wake (Tues), UNC @ Clemson (Wed), GA Tech @ UNC & VA Tech @ FSU (Sat), Wake @ Duke (Sun)

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Better than Goude

Ok, now we can start talking about upsets. Andrew Goudelack and The College of Charleston pulled off a stunner, coming back to beat North Carolina in OT. UNC was missing a few players (Ginyard and Graves) but still should have had more than enough to get the win.

In what ESPN actually would be justified in calling an upset, they seemed to dance around it inexplicably talking about the success CoC has had in the past. That would be like someone claiming a loss to Davidson isn't bad because Steph Curry was there last year. Let me give you some of the CoC's losses in 2009: Coastal Carolina by 11, East Tennessee by 6, Hawaii by 13; this is not a top-tier program or team, though they may win the SoCon.

The most disconcerting thing for Ole' Roy and his Heels has to be the way they allowed a 12-1 run to close after the game seemed safely in tow.

The other question: After watching them struggle with Rutgers for 36 minutes and lose to The College of Charleston (yes, they have a good shot to win the SoCon this year, but still...) is the ACC even more wide open after Duke than we thought? And is the ACC clearly Duke's to lose?

I have probably overrated the Tarheels all season long, but confess to still be enamored by the potential in Chapel Hill if they can figure it all out before March.

UP NEXT:
CoC - Sat @ Citadel
UNC - Sun VA Tech

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Monday Quick Picks - Jan 4th

The Maniac is back for the New Year, ready to build on a winning first half of the season.

Here's a few quick picks for a decent slate of Monday night games

North Carolina -14 @ Charleston - The Tarheels snoozed through a closer-than-expected win over Rutgers last week. Roy Williams was visably unhappy. Not quite throw a random guy out of the arena pissed, but certainly unhappy. The Tarheels are so much bigger, so much deeper and so much more talented than Cremins' Cougars. I think Roy has them focused and ready to play and they simply overwhelm 'em tonight.

Pitt @ Cincinnati -4 - It's been a rough week in the Queen City. The Bearcats were emasculated in the Sugar Bowl; perhaps proving that, no, in fact they didn't quite belong. The Bungles humiliated themselves in the return to national TV, passing for ZERO yards against the Jets. Even Xavier lost a gut-wrenching double OT'er to Wake Forest yesterday. The lone bright spot? The Bearcats basketball team appears to be poised to return to the Tourney.

Pitt pulled off on of the few legit "upsets" of this young season, not just winning but winning BIG at Syracuse. Now the test for Dixon's young Panthers is to win a game in which they are not overwhelmingly underdogs. If you watched the game, you couldn't help but notice how Pitt absolutely caught fire from three-point range against Syracuses's matchup D. Cincinnati defends much differently, and there will be a totally different shot that will have to be made tonight. It will require more ball screens, more individual creativity and less stand-still shots.

I really like the Bearcats tonight, though their erratic shooting leaves every game on the schedule a little in doubt...

Alabama +0.5 @ Toledo - The Tide's record is subpar, but they looked real good in a few of those losses to elite opponents. Toledo is not elite, and I think the Tide will out-athlete them in a good road win heading into conference play.

Maniac's Season Record: 29-23-1 ATS

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Saturday's Picks

The Maniac looks to continue a blistering start on a loaded college hoops Saturday. Quick Picks below. As always, we of course don't condone gambling in any manner. However, if one were to gamble, I'd like to point out we are over 65% ATS on the season...

Michigan +20 @ Kansas - Kansas hasn't been tested in a month, Michigan has failed every test in 2009's early going. It seems to point in the Jayhawks favor, but I think Michigan hangs around enough to cover.

Mississippi St -3 @ Houston - Missisippi State has quietly begun to find their stride. Houston has been good at times this season, but the Bulldogs are too talented to fall tonight.

North Carolina +6.5 @ Texas - It is difficult to say how either team will react to cavernous Cowboys Stadium, but I do feel confident that the Tarheels will not be overwhelmed by the environment. They have already played Ohio State and Syracuse in MSG, and played Kentucky at Rupp. Plus, the Heels are no jumpshot dependant, preferring to penetrate and take advantage of their quickness and the size of their deep frontline. I think Texas is a Final Four team, but I think UNC might be a little more ready at this juncture of the season.

Virginia Commonwealth -4 @ Tulane - I like VCU with ease, perhaps Vegas sees something in the Green Wave that The Maniac hasn't... Gimme the Rams to cover by double digits.

Temple +4.5 @ Georgetown - It is dangerous to pick all road teams with your picks, but I don't care. Seton Hall is this year's Providence; good in the early going with a great record built against inferior competition. Temple however has played as good a slate as anyone in the country and is sitting at 8-2. I think they not only cover, but get the win over Jeremy Hazell and the Pirates.

South Carolina -2 @ Wofford - Another road game, and I originally thought this line was a typo. It isn't. Jump on the Cocks ("ladies" said in my creepiest voice). Wofford is not terrible, but SC is in a whole different category in terms of offensive ability and athleticism.

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Big Chance for the Big Ten

It has been widely covered this week how the Big Ten has never beaten the ACC in the Challenge. I found that surprising, given the ACC's recent top-heaviness, but am not stunned. Regardless, this year seems to be the Big Ten's chance to break through.

Here is a guide to this week's games:

MONDAY: Penn State def. Virginia - Not surprising as Penn State is as strong as any 8th or 9th place team in any normal size (BEast excluded) conference in America. It's a good start for the Ten.

TUESDAY: A really good slate of games highlighted by Michigan State's trip to UNC at 9PM (ESPN HD). The undercard isn't bad either with Wake @ Purdue, Northwestern at NC State, Maryland @ Indiana, and Iowa @ Virginia Tech.

I am not sure exactly how the matchups are determined, but Maryland v. Indiana seems an odd mismatch, with IU being figured no higher than 9th (probably 10th or 11th) in the Big Ten. When your predicted finish is lower than the number of teams in the NAME OF YOUR LEAGUE it is not going to be a real banner season. Ditto for Iowa, the only team scraping the bottom with Indiana. Their draw of VA Tech seems a bit ambitious as well.

MANIAC'S PICKS: Purdue, Maryland, VA Tech, Northwestern in a surprise, and North Carolina continuing to haunt Izzo and the Spartans; this time with a nearly entirely new cast...

WEDNESDAY: More great action starts at 7PM with Illinois trying to stabilize a disappointing start with a win at Clemson. Other games in the early going feature Minnesota @ Miami, and Boston College @ Michigan. The late games are two really good ones when Duke tries to do what very few have recently; win at the Kohl Center against the Badgers, and Florida State visiting Evan Turner and the Ohio State Buckeyes.

MANIAC'S PICKS: Clemson, Miami (FL), Michigan, Duke and Ohio State.

FINAL TALLY: ACC gets 'em again, by a close 6-5 margin.

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Bracketeering - November 30th, 2009

Bracketeering - November 30th, 2009

I love Feast Week. It provides a glimpse into who is what more than any other sport. Unlike on the gridiron where we wait until bowl season to find out who a gaggle of computer's googled into the top spot, we get ample opportunities to see who can play. And who cannot.

In this week's Bracketeering we have a lot of motion. Team's like Butler undid all the shedding of the "small school upstart" label with two losses and one "win" over UCLA at the buzzer. Tulsa seemed primed to take up the mantle of C-USA contender; then lost by 8 to Missouri State. Portland seemed destined to land on the Maniac's Rankings...until West Virginia changed their flight plan with a routine win in the 76 Classic championship over the Pilots.

Staying out West, Gonzaga moves very little in Bracketeering despite rocketing up the AP and USA Today polls; the reason? We already had 'em in the right spot.

Not that we got 'em all right. Or do now. But I'll take us over the polls that reward idle hands and big names more than tough losses and some scheduling gumption!

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FINAL FOUR:

1. Texas - They have slept walked through a few first halves, but have shown nothing to dissuade the Maniac into dropping them from the top perch. They have also been less tested than the rest of the Final Four; for now. They have an easy week, but face teams that will at least make them run in Long Beach State, and USC. At the end of the month it is game on with back-to-backers against North Carolina and Michigan State.

2. Syracuse - Nothing exceptionally noteworthy this week, the Orange earned this perch in MSG several weeks ago. They follow up their wins against Cornell and Columbia with a tough one with Colgate and Maine. Ah...now that's the Big East pre-con schedule we are used to! Next Thursday's (12/10) tilt with Florida is looking better and better every day.

3. Duke - Too slow? Too soft? How about too good. The Devils neutral court emasculation of UConn was impressive. It might be too soon to put them ahead of Kansas, Kentucky and Villanova, but to this point the Devils have done more.

4. Kansas - Each year there is a team I am slow to come around on. For some reason, that's Kansas this year. I know they are looking great, I know Collins has done a nice job involving the whole team, Alderich has looked great and Xavier Henry gives them the scoring punch from the 3. This team is built real similar to Duke 1992, with Henry playing the Grant Hill role. However, the only real game they played found them tangled with a yet-to-develop Memphis team. It will be another 3 weeks before we get to see the 'Hawks play a real game. Not sure how they are the near unanimous #1 in the polls when Syracuse, Duke and others have done so much more.

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Purdue - The gutty win over a very good Tennessee team speaks volumes about the character of this club. This team has one of the best, most cohesive and experienced Starting 5's in the country. Now the test for the grown-upversion of the Baby Boilers to find a few "babies" to round out the rotation.

6. Villanova - My take? This is about where the Cats peak. They have some nice close resume wins over solid competition, but the eye test makes them seem like they are in for a grueling, tough Big East slate. Syracuse, West Virginia and UConn are deeper and stronger. I think Georgetown, Cincy, Marquette will give them heck as well.

7. Kentucky - We've chronicled some of the Wildcats' early season struggles at length here, so let's just leave it at this: Play like they did against Miami (OH), Sam Houston State and Stanford and the Cats will lose two of their next three (UNC and @UConn).

8. West Virginia - They have played a few less games than most of the top teams, but their performance this week launches them up in Bracketeering. Yes, the wins are over Long Beach St, a solid and underrated Texas A&M, and Portland, but the way they won was impressive. This team shoots the ball well from the perimeter, passes it unselfishly and possesses the traditional Huggins' athleticism and pressure D. As Ebanks gets acclimated with the team, they will continue to get even better. Man the Big East is really loaded...again.

Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)

9. North Carolina - The Syracuse win really doesn't bother me. It is the fact they were tied with five minutes to go at home against Nevada that pushes them out of my Elite Eight. I still think once they figure out who is going to initiate the offense this is one of the five best teams in the country.

10. Tennessee - A one point loss to Purdue doesn't hurt their standings in my book. The lack of a PG does.

11. Gonzaga - Hard to believe the team that was underrated so long that they became overrated was unrated at the begining of the season. OK, that was a mouthful. Let's make it easy; with wins over Cincinnati, Wisconsin and a gutty 2-point loss in Chrysler Arena to MSU the Zags are really good. Will they stay this high in the polls? Unlikely. WIth December games that look like: Wake Forest, Davidson, @Duke, @Illinois, then a conference first three of: @Portland, @St. Mary's and @San Diego. Regardless of the outcome, that is a recipe for tourney-readiness.

12. UConn -Duke hammered them. They need a SF/SG who can create to be elite. However, don't let that fool you into thinking this team isn't very good..

13. Ohio State - Evan Turner is still #1 on my POY ballot, Ohio State is still a dangerous team who could win the Big Ten and make the short drive to Indy this April. Wednesday's Big Ten/ACC Challenge matchup vs. Florida State is a good opportunity to solidify their ranking.

14. Florida - I wasn't sure what to make of the nearly 20 point win over Florida State; then Florida State won three straight in the Old Spice Classic (including over a good Marquette team). Then they took down Michigan State on Friday and it is hard to over look the Gators at this point. Are they going to be a Sweet 16 team in March? I'm not quite sure of that. But I would be willing to wager they snap a two-year NIT streak this Spring. We are looking forward to next week's game against Syracuse.

15. Michigan State - I called them the most over-ranked team before the season's outset. Florida proved my right. I'd be stunned if the Gators are a Top Ten team this season. By the end of the year? Perhaps the Spartans will be; that is Izzo's traditional M.O. For now? It's hard to have them any higher than this. Of course, win tomorrow night against North Carolina and all is forgiven.

16. Up for grabs - I can't really put anyone a definitive step forward as each team listed has some great wins and a tough loss that makes them loom as a question mark (except for Georgetown who gets a "loss" from me for the 46-45 snoozer with Temple and the subsequent dodging). Cincinnati, Georgetown, Florida State, Marquette, Texas A&M, Washington (show me something this week @ Texas Tech, the 63-59'er over Montana goes in the "L" column in our book), Portland, Clemson, Miami(FL)

Closing In...
UNLV, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Memphis, Richmond, Oklahoma St,

Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on:
Rhode Island, Washington St. (6-0 with a 37-point win over San Diego yesterday), Xavier, Butler (tough losses, but still a Top-25 level team, Dayton, St. John's, Seton Hall, Northern Colorado, Northwestern, Baylor, Iowa State, New Mexico

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Take the Money and Run

After a 3-1 Wednesday; the only blemish being a last second-break away-spread covering layup by Cincinnati, the Maniac is back with more early season tidings.

First we give you Buutler with the easy cover, then Texas by 32 (oops, I said 34) and finally Cornell easily handling UMass. I feel a nice trust building between us... let me give you a few more.

OK, call me a coward but there is no way I am touching the Ohio State v. Carolina game tonight. But I will DVR it. In what is easily the best game of the day the nation gets an early glimpse at the Maniac's POY favorite, Evan Turner. The Ohio State swingman can stuff a stat sheet like no one else in the country and will be a big reason the Buckeyes hang right with Sparty and Purdue in the Big Ten. Carolina's deep frontcourt will be a tough matchup for Lauderdale and the Bucks, with no real answer for Ed Davis AND Deon Thompson (and Zeller and Hensen and Ginyard and...)

I have no idea which side prevails, but my sneaking suspicion is that Carolina is a little overvalued while Ohio State remains a tad under the radar.

Thursday Picks:

Cal -1.5 over Syracuse - Cal boasts one of the nation's premier backcourts, while the 'Cuse are still looking to patch the holes left by Flynn and Devendorf's early departures. To ask them to have that figured out by 7pm tonight might be a little much. Cal fancies themselves as not just Pac 10 contenders but legit threats to dance in Indy come April. Tonight is a good early glimpse at a team that will not get many more national litmus tests before March.
Maniac's Pick: Cal -1.5 and they cover easily.

South Florida -1 @ Davidson - Um, will someone please tell Vegas that Steph Curry is no longer attending school at Davidson? Did anyone watch this team last year? They were awful. I mean, they were third in the SoCon with Steph. USF is by no means ready to compete in the BEast, but they are certainly athletic enough to easily handle the Wildcats, even on the road.
Maniac's Pick: USF -1

Long Beach St. @ Notre Dame -15 - Luke Hanangody's mission and outgoing gift to Irish fans is a return to the NCAA tourney. The early loss of Purdue transfer Scott Martin hurts the Irish's depth, but Harangody alone is enough to put the Irish back into the top half of a less-than-stellar Big East. Of course, their cream puff loaded schedule won't prepare them for it, but for now, enjoy the gaudy record and comfy wins Irish fans.

(Maniac note: unless UCLA gets rolling, the Irish will not face a ranked foe until a Jan 2nd tilt with UConn - EARLY PREDICTION, Notre Dame goes 9-9 or 8-10 in conference, but has 20+ wins because of the fluff they played early and experts rage over IF and WHERE the Irish belong in the tourney field. They better beat at least two of the following: you know what forget it, this deserves it's own column...)

Maniac's Pick: Notre Dame -15

Luke plans on clapping well into the Big Dance in his senior season

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