Wednesday's Hidden Gems - There are a TON

Tonight is the culmination of the Big Ten - ACC Challenge, with the conferences knotted at three apiece. However, there is a bevy of quality and intriguing hoops going on in places lesser covered. The Maniac is here to provide a guide to some games worth catching, and some early fine tuning of the Cinderella slipper-worthiness (worthiness is a word, per Seinfeld's "sponge worthiness" episode) across the nation's landscape.

Pitt (-5.5) @ Duquesne: The Maniac liked Duquesne as a sleeper tourney pick out of the improved, balanced Atlantic Ten. Then they went out and lost to Western Carolina, after struggling to a three point win over Arkansas-Monticello. Yep, the famed power Arkansas-Monticello. Not an impressive start. But keep in mind they just got 6'3'' scoring guard Melquan Boldin back this week, giving the four of the five leading scorers from 2008-09 back on the floor.

Meanwhile Pitt has looked impressive, starting 5-1 and playing Texas tough for 32 minutes before capitulating late. The names on the front of the jerseys and the early season results would seem to tilt the scales pretty heavily in Pitt's favor. I still like the Dukes tonight, as the game means just a little bit more for them.

Here's a nice article on the history of the series. Plus, Papa Maniac will appreciate the reflection on the Duquesne glory days...

Siena @ Georgia Tech (-6): Georgia Tech is the only ACC squad not playing in the Challenge this week, but will still get a challenge from the Siena Saints. Siena burst into national consciousness with the Double OT upset of Ohio State in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament last year. They even opened this season ranked in several polls. However they have already lost to both Temple and St. John's; both bubble teams at best.

This looks like a classic case of the long underrated proving to be, um, more "appropriately" rated. Georgia Tech however is a budding beast. Long gone is the 11-18 season of 2008-2009. These Jackets have no intention of sitting out this postseason.

Give me the Jackets to win and cover.

Old Dominion @ Richmond (-3): Another great matchup of small school potential darlings come March. Old Dominion entered the season as the favorite in the undervalued CAA. Richmond is one of the sleepers (behind Xavier and Dayton) to shake up the A-10.

Richmond is 6-1 with wins over Missouri and Mississippi State, and their lone loss to William & Mary (not a bad loss - seriously - click here), Old Dominion has been a little less sharp losing the the same two school Richmond padded their resume against.

However the head-to-head matchup is the true test. If we were playing the who-beat-who game, LeMoyne is better than North Carolina.

That said, I like Richmond in a really intriguing ballgame.

Western Kentucky @ South Carolina (-5.5): South Carolina and Devan Downey entered the season hoping to challenge Kentucky and Tennessee in the SEC East; and expecting to dance in March. They got their doors blown off by Miami and showed the hangover effect, giving up 93 points to Jacksonville in a game they were lucky to win 97-93.

Their next three games will really set the table for how much work they will have to get done in the insanely deep and balanced SEC (no, they are not the best conference, but have less drop off from 3 to 11 than any other league). After this they host Clemson and travel to Richmond. First things first, knock off a twice-defending Sweet 16 participant in the Hilltoppers.

The Hilltoppers have been really disappointing thus far; losing to LSU and Indiana State, and winning by only 4 and 1 vs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee and CS Northridge. Yuck.

South Carolina needs to bring some focus tonight. I think they will, and will win convincingly.

Rhode Island @ VCU (-4): Eric Maynor is gone, but VCU and first-year coach Shaka Smart have no intention of sitting out this year's Big Dance. They have already burried the memory of the loss to Western Michigan with big wins over Oklahoma and Nevada.

Rhode Island was one of the last teams on the outside of the bubble last year. Their early 4-0 start contains little to help remedy that in 2010. Tonight is huge for the Rams. They still have shots against Oklahoma St, Boston College and Providence. They can't afford many losses unless they want to be forced to win the A-10 to dance.

A really good game that most people will miss; give me RI in a close win.

Arkansas @ Oklahoma (-12): Hard to believe how much worse this game is than it sounds like it should be. Oklahoma has struggled mightily learning how to cope with the loss of the Griffin boys. Arkansas is scouring the campus for enough warm bodies to dress. What is this, Hickory High School??

Cover your eyes, and expect Oklahoma to take out a little frustration on the hapless Hogs.

The Maniac takes Willie Warren and the Sooners in a romp.

Oklahoma State (-2.5) @ Tulsa: This is one of the best games of the early season. An no one will get to see it. Except for the kids parents. And Tulsans. (Is that right? Tulsasians? Tulsainians? Can anyone help with this?)

Oklahoma State is has six easy cruising wins. However only the latest against Utah (who boasts losses to ) is evenly remotely relevant. After this, their only "games" before Big 12 play are against Pacific, Stanford and Rhode Island. All decent teams, but the Cowboys have a lot more opportunity for "bad losses" then they do "good wins." They need tonight more than it seems from a distance.

Their is no doubt of the importance of this game for Tulsa. Conference USA has become a one-bid league, more inline with the WCC and MVC than the Big Six. Many experts tabbed Tulsa as the pre-season fave (not us, it is still Memphis by a lot). They enter tonight 5-1, fresh off a loss to Missouri State. Tonight is a must win if they want to entertain notions of an at-large bid. After tonight, their two best remaining non-conference games are Colorado and Nebraska.

A won't put an official pick on this one; it really is a coin-flip to me. That said, I think the MO St. loss is a clear result of looking ahead to tonight and that Tulsa will give them one heck of a battle defending their home court.

These games all tip between 7-8pm EST. It is a fantastic early night for college hoops and one that will be reference back all season long as we begin to sort out RPI's and Power Rankings.

MANIAC'S PICKS (RECAP):
Duquesne +5.5
Georgia Tech -6
Richmond -3
South Carolina -5.5
Rhode Island +4
Oklahoma -12

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Big Game Rundown - Wednesday Feb 4th

We are entering the final month of the regular season, and things are starting to take shape in the Big 6 conferences. Several teams have disappointed, but no one the experts were banking on to dance has eliminated themselves from the possibility (Notre Dame and Arizona need to win this week though...).

More than misfires, we have had a nice crop of pleasant surprises. Whether teams like Penn State, Providence and Northwestern can finish strong remains to be seen, but I imagine their fan bases can not be too disappointed with the seasons they are turning in.

Here are the biggest games that impact the bubble and seeding taking place Wednesday.

West Virginia heads to the Carrier Dome in a huge Big East battle. The Mountaineers are 4-4, while the 'Cuse is 5-4 in conference play. Neither one can feel too comfortable in their Top 8 position with Notre Dame and Georgetown lurking just a game behind. The winner tonight moves closer to locking up a dance card, the loser slides onto the bubble.

Notre Dame visits the Bearcats in the Queen City in an even more precarious game for both squads. The loser of this game (particularly if it is UC) is all but eliminated from tourney thoughts. Notre Dame is 3-6 in conference and 12-8 overall. A loss at Cincinnati would leave them with very little room for error. It is possible for a Big East team to slide into the tourney at 8-10 in conference. However, after UC, Notre Dame still has trips to UConn, West Virginia and Providence, as well as home games with Lousiville and Villanova. Throw in a non-conference trip to UCLA and it is getting late pretty early for the Irish.

Harangody needs some help to get the Irish dancing...

Wake Forest looks to rebound from their surprising loss at Georgia Tech with a trip to Miami. The Canes were ranked the first month of the season but are on the wrong side of the bubble as of today. A win over the Deac's could get them back on track to make a late season-saving push.

Utah visits TCU in a good Mountain West battle. Several polls have the Utes as one of the last teams IN the tourney. TCU has a smaller reputation but a similar profile and trails the Utes (and everyone else) by only one game at 4-3. Big game to see if the teams can start to seperate a little in the MWC.

Ok Providence, are you for real? If so, bring your A game when Villanova comes calling tomorrow night. Tournament teams defend their home court. Another blowout loss to one of the Big East Big Boys will crush their image (and really help Georgetown and Notre Dame move back into spots #8 & #9 respectively).

Tennessee once again looks like the best team in the SEC and the most legitimate threat to well-represent the conference in March. Arkansas has done dreadfully in conference play but seems to bring its best for the best teams. They better tomorrow night, as their spot on the "bubble list" is more just a shot in the dark since they own two colossal non-conference wins. All other signs point to NIT or worse...

Minnesota at Michigan State has nothing to do with making the tourney, rather it has national ranking and Big Ten champion implications. Michigan State has been surprisingly vulnerable at home, losing to both Penn State and Northwestern. With the Purdue loss tonight, a Gopher win puts them as part of the big log jam at the top.

And for your viewing pleasure, tune in at 9pm (with the TV muted) for the Clemson v Duke game. Clemson is legitmatly deserving of their #10 ranking at 18-2 with several quality wins. However, when I say "Clemson" what is the first thing you think of? Exactly. Hammered by Wake, Humiliated (intentially improperly capitalized) by Carolina.

It is hard to imagine the committee has different first impressions either. Clemson can do a lot to cement their reputation in either direction tomorrow night.

Can Clemson earn some respect against the Dookies?

The most underrated game of the night from a national perspective in the Battle for LA tomorrow night. UCLA and USC might be the two most talented teams in the Pac 10. SC fell off the radar early with a few losses, but is in good shape getting to the tourney. This game is about more than seeding and standings.

Two Big Big 12 games as well; Oklahoma hosts a reeling Texas A&M squad, while Missouri looks to move from "interesting tourney contender" to "lock" by knocking off the Longhorns in Austin. Texas seems to continue to be forgiven by the pollsters, but reall can't afford too many more "bad" lossess if they have legitimate hopes of earning a Top 4 seed in March.

Great slate of games, for complete BUBBLE IMPACT - visit our sister site (in progress) at TheThirtyFour.com

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Wednesday's Pick

Wow, the Maniac is still reeling from the display Jodie Meeks put on last night. Highlights don't do it justice my friends...

As far as the Maniac last night, precient selections of the road wins notched by Kentucky and FSU, as well as sweating out his lock pick of TCU +15. The only loss was on lost-cause IU, suffering, along with the audience, on yet another nationally televised blowout.

Here are Wednesday's selections:

Michigan State travels to surprising Penn State. Talor Battle has been great for the Nittany Lions, who still remain an outside candidate to sneak into the Big Dance. However, Michigan State has gelled of late and the talent discrepency is really large between them. I like Penn State, but no way they cover tonight.

Maniac's Pick: Michigan State -5 1/2 (LOCK)

Syracuse begins their four-game gauntlet tonight with a trip to the nation's capital to take on Greg Monroe and the Hoyas. These two teams always sem to lock up in tough battles, I expect tonight to be no different. I like the Hoyas, but will take the Orange with the points.

Maniac's Pick: Syracuse +6

Florida heads to Auburn tonight to take on the Tigers. Auburn has athleticism and rebounding, but lacks playmakers and shooting. It sees like the type of matchup that bodes well for the Gators, provided they can take care of the basketball and get on the defensive glass. Year Two of the "Baby Gators" has not been quite as successful as some hoped, but tonight's win would be a good positive step to returning the the NCAA Touney.

Maniac's Pick: Florida -3

Arkansas has notched two of the most impressive non-conference wins of anyone in the country, beating Oklahoma and Texas. SO why are they two point dogs tonight at Mississippi? Because the SEC is full of parity; good, yet few (if any) very good teams. Mississippi entered the season with SEC West title aspirations, though they took a hit when Chris Warren got hurt. Arkansas has a lot of talent most people have never heard of. A loss tonight puts a tarnish on their two big wins. I think John Pelphrey will make sure his Hogs know that.

Maniac's Pick: Arkansas +2

Last year's darlings of the Valley travel to this year's hopefuls when Drake visits Illinois State. We were real high on the Redbirds and their unbeaten start until MVC parity reared it's ugly head. It is that same parity that makes it crazy to lay 9 on anyone in this league. Gimme Drake and the points.

Maniac's Pick: Drake +9 (LOCK)

Wake visits BC in the proverbial "trap game." Fresh off their emotional fantastic victory over UNC they would seem ripe for the plucking. Just like...exactly, BC versus Harvard. Don't think that won't come up several hundred times in tonight's pregame locker room talk. Wake shows some maturity and poise tonight, and handles their business over a less-talented BC team.

Maniac's Pick: Wake -4 (LOCK)

Utah @ Air Force - Interesting game, gimme Air Force at home, if only becuase getting 8 is like getting 15 for a team that plays a normal tempo.

Maniac's Pick: Air Force +8

Eye Openers for Tuesday Jan 6th

Some really great games and some interesting results from around the country. Here is a quick recap.

UConn pulled away late to nip West Virginia in Morgantown 61-55. The loss will likely drop the Mountaineers out of the next polls. Who cares. They are a good ballclub who will be dancing with a nervous partner in some 7-10 game in March. The Huskies look really solid after their conference opening defeat to Georgetown. They are about 5th to 7th in most polls, but are still a Top 3 team using the eye test.

UCF beat Holy Cross to move to 9-4. Are they tourney worthy? Certainly not, barring a miracle conference tourney run. But Jermaine Taylor is the best player you have NEVER heard of, averaging over 23 a contest. If the Knights can eke out 10 or 11 conference wins, he could be C-USA's player of the year (though I imagine it will go to bigger name (and ass...) Robert Vaden)

Ohio State lost at Michigan State by a dozen or so to fall to 0-3 in conference. Ohio State is on the ropes big time, after looking like a Top 10 team just three weeks ago. If you seeded today, seven Big Ten teams dance, and they are NOT one of them. Meanwhile Michigan State very quietly looks like one of the best teams in the country. Put that 35 point loss to Carolina out of your heads. I have an interesting theory I am cooking up on WHY that loss happened... Read it on the site, and tell me if you agree/disagree....

Kansas held off a feisty Siena team by 7. Col Alderich is way better than you think and is an early candidate for the Eric Montross retro white-guy flattop of the year award. Siena is a pesty club I would be wary of in the inevitable 14 seed they will earn in March.

Stop the fight, we have a winner!

Villanova earned a nice road win over a pesky Seton Hall club. Scottie Reynolds tossed in 40 in the OT thriller.

Creighton and Illinois State lost to Northern Iowa and Bradley respectivly. Great for the victors, but disaster for the conference. Parity does not get multiple bids for non-BCS conferences. You need two to four giants to amass gaudy records in top-heavy leagues. Computers and RPI's don't watch basketball games. Hell, after Arizona State got left out last year I am not sure the committe does either.

Arkansas continues it's Southwestern Confernce Trail of Tears, scalping another former conference mate and top ten Little 12 team in Texas. The Hogs got 'em 67-61 and add them to Oklahoma in the impressive trophy closet. Think those two wins move you up three or four lines come tourney seeding time?? You better believe it. They remind me a lot of the 18-11 Maryland team in 2003 who went from bubble to #4 seed in the span of three good ACC Tourney wins. Sometime WHO you beat matters most.

Lastly, to balance the praise of the SEC with some reality, how about the shitsandwich LSU served up in Utah tonight, losing 91-61 to the Utes. Utah is now 10-5 with losses to Utah State, Idaho State, and ....wait for it.... Southwest Baptist. You would think a loss like that and even JOHN the Baptist couldn't resurrect your season's soul, but LSU attempted to prove otherwise.

Enjoy a good week of hoops! Oh, and Geaux Tigers!!

Best Foot Forward - Impessive Conference Debuts

The new year marks the advent of conference play, and here is where some of the separation between the contenders and pretenders begins. Several teams served notice the are here to play in 2009.

Impressive Debuts:

Illinois - A win on the road at preseason conference favorite Purdue is a nice way to open Big 10 play. The Illini are two points away (@Clemson) from being undefeated. It looks like Bruce Webber has his team poised to return to the tourney.

Georgetown - With the stumbles of Louisville and Notre Dame and the win at UConn, it is hard to say Georgetown isn't the top team in the nation's best conference at this point.

Illinois St. - They entered last night's game undefeated, yet most still pegged Creighton, Drake or Evansville as the team to beat in the MVC. The Redbirds 80-50 thumping of Evansville just added a fourth name to the discussion.

Arkansas - Yes, they had to hold on for dear life, but the Hogs took it too Oklahoma and Blake Griffin Tuesday night. As much as I have ripped the SEC, it is not unreasonable to think that both they and LSU could make five teams dancing for the conference come March.

Dissapointments:

Lousiville - Another tough loss, this one at home to UNLV. The loss accentuated one of the Cards fatal flaws; with 12 seconds to go, they have no clue who is supposed to have the ball. Their lack of a point guard and offensive creativity could make for a very underwhelming year in the Commenwealth.

Gonzaga - The UConn loss was probably the best game played this season in college basketball. The Arizona loss was not great, but excusable. The Portland State loss was a classic "hangover game." So, please give me some ratioanle for last night's Utah loss? If they weren't "Gonzaga", at 8-4 in a mid-major league, would you think this team is a lock to dance? Most certainly not.

The Zags have left themselves some surprising work to do in conference play. With Portland, San Diego and St. Mary's, it may not be as automatic as most people think.

Minnesota - Don't get me wrong, the Gophers and Tubby Smith have a lot to be happy about. However, a home drubbing in the conference opener by the Spartans indicate things haven't changed quite as much as Minnesota might have hoped.

St. Joe's - The Hawks entered the season with aspirations of returning to the tourney. After consecutive losses to Siena and Drexel dropped them to 5-7, NIT aspirations seem lofty.

Hog Heaven - Arkansas Knocks Off the Previously Unbeaten Sooners

Oklahoma found valiantly, rallying back from a 25 point deficit with 11 minutes remaining to cut the lead to just 4 with three minutes to play. Oklahoma battled tough, and fought through foul trouble to most of their key players, including All-American Blake Griffin, but in the end Arkansas was just a little too tough at home.

The win moved Arkansas to 10-1 and should get them some consideration in next week's polls. It is also a huge win for a conference in desperate need of a non-conference win to hang their hat on. Thanks to the Hogs, they now have one.

Big-Time Resume Win Over the Sooners

Tuesday Round Up - Best Games Across the Nation 12/30

There were some great statement wins last night. Georgetown announced its presence with authority in the Big East. Memphis defended their home court against the Bearcats, with tenacity and captured a much needed resume win before C-USA play, and Davidson went to Charleston and beat their stiffest conference foe - putting the SoCon on notice that they could once again run the table.

Tonight, several other teams get a chance to make some noise.

GAME OF THE NIGHT:

7 PM - Illinois @ Purdue

The Illini have been one of the season's pleasant surprises with their 11-1 start. Tonight they get a chance to validate it with an impressive showing at Purdue. The Boilers were ambushed in Mackey by Duke, but are a tough squad to beat in their building. I like the poise and defense of the Boilers tonight.

This place will be rockin' tonight

7 PM UAB @ Butler

UAB got off to a promising start, beating Arizona on the road in the Preseason NIT. Since then, they have backslid a little, losing games to Oklahoma (understandable) and Louisville by 20. Add in loses to BC and Cincinnati, and this is a game they can ill-afford to lose if they have any hope of earning at at-large bid (assuming Memphis wins the C-USA tourney for the umpteenth straight time).

Butler comes in with a lone 3-point loss, at Ohio State, and fresh off a win over Xavier at the Cintas Center. This would be one more feather in the Bulldog's cap come seeding time.

7 PM George Mason @ Dayton

George Mason is the interesting case of a small school exploding so prominently onto the national stage that they begin to become a bit overrated. This is not to say they are not a good team, but just that Dayton is still the prohibitive favorite. This is a huge opportunity for both school, particularly the Patriots, to grab a huge non-conference resume win.

They are good on '08... not THAT good though.

7 PM Clemson @ South Carolina

An in-state skirmish between tow decent ball clubs. Clemson is off to a fantastic start (stop me if you have heard that one before), but better not over look Devan Downey and the Gamecocks. The win over Illinois is a good one. The subsequent win over Miami (FL) was impressive as well. Capture this one tonight, and the Tigers are well positioned for March entering ACC play.

8:05 PM Oklahoma @ Arkansas

Oklahoma has been the most consistent team in the nation (Carolina excluded), and will get a quality test tonight in Fayetteville. Gone are the days of "40 minutes of hell" but the Hogs still get after it on defense. Still, Willie Warren and Blake Griffin might be too much for them to handle.

MANIAC'S PICKS:
UAB +6.5, Oklahoma +6 (LOCK), Dayton -8, Clemson - 2.5, Purdue -6.5