It was really, really ugly if you are a Northwestern fan, but an incredibly powerful sign if you are a Baylor fan that the lofty #7 ranking might not be as ambitious as some originally thought.
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Showing posts with label Baylor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baylor. Show all posts
Baylor Makes Big Statement
This is a post link for the full game story on Yahoo.
It was really, really ugly if you are a Northwestern fan, but an incredibly powerful sign if you are a Baylor fan that the lofty #7 ranking might not be as ambitious as some originally thought.
Read More:
It was really, really ugly if you are a Northwestern fan, but an incredibly powerful sign if you are a Baylor fan that the lofty #7 ranking might not be as ambitious as some originally thought.
Read More:
Bracketeering - November Pre-Thanksgiving Turkey Shoot
There is something exhilarating about the Thanksgiving edition of Bracketeering each season. The season is young enough that imense room for speculation still prevails, however there have been just enough small slivers of hoops action against semi-reasonable competition that complete disdain for the pollsters is already allowable.
The real difference maker, and where I give them the slight edge over North Carolina is the addition of freshman Anthony Davis. Watching his fourteen point, seven block domination over Kansas, I couldn't help but make the extrapolation that he is going to give Zeller and Henson absolute fits. Terrance Jones should be a decent defensive match on Barnes, and from 1 to 8, Kentucky actually has a slight athleticism advantage of the uber-athletic Heels.
#2 North Carolina - They are everyone's #1 for a reason. They are absolutely loaded. Barnes returned after a slow-starting, but quietly spectacular freshman season and should vie with Jared Sullinger for national player of the year honors in 2012. The inside duo of Henson and Zeller are as talented as any frontcourt in the nation (though I am not sold on their interior defensive presence; yes Henson is a good shot blocker, but is he really going to body a Jared Sullinger out of the lane??), and Marshall Strickland is a fantastic distributor who looks up the floor better than any collegiate guard in the country.
When looking at a team than is going to struggle to find minutes for McDonald's All-American freshman James McAdoo because of the dearth of talent, identifying flaws is obviously a nit-picking venture. However, nitpick I shall... this is not a perfect team in the mold of the two national championship teams in the Roy Williams era. Zeller has developed some pretty moves, but is nowhere near the reliable 'dump it in the post every time down the floor' scoring option that Tyler Hansbrough was. I'd grade him significantly behind Sean May in that regard as well. This team is also devoid of a defensive wing stopper in the mold of a Danny Green or Raymond Felton. And the outside shooting of the 2011-2012 Heels?? Let's just say they'd be wise to keep it up tempo and run run run.
However, as stated above, until next weekend I'm cautiously parking the Heels just behind Coach Cal's Big Blue.
And perimeter shooting? Not an issue for the Dukies. Although Austin Rivers's shot selection still leaves a bit to be desired (more on that later), shooting from behind the arc is something this team will do as well as any team in the nation. Curry and Andre' Dawkins can flat-out knock it down. Rivers is potentially deadly albeit streaky, and no 6'11' player in the country shoots as well from distance as Duke's Brian Kelly.
In fact, Kelly is the primary reason I elevated the Blue Devils to #3. Through three weeks, no player in the country has shown more improvement from last season than Kelly. His ability to put the ball on the floor as well as spot up from three-point range makes him an incredibly versatile and difficult to defend weapon. His shooting ability prevents teams from shading help to the corners to help on perimeter shooters, and balances the relatively limited ability of the Plumlee boys from anywhere beyond three feet of the rim (especially the foul line... bletch!). This also allows for Mason and Miles to do what they do best; rebound. Having a 6'11'' guy pulling a big away from the rim creates fantastic put-back jam opportunities, which they have each capitalized on several times this season in big moments.
The danger for Duke lies in the early tendency of freshman Austin Rivers to take about four or five ridiculous shots per game. So far, Coach K has seemed surprisingly patient with the frosh's shot selection, and his teammates have been typically plucky Duke supporters, clapping and cheering their teammate on. But at some point, in a big moment or as a tight tough game starts to slip away, you have to wonder if some of the frustration and tension might surface. So far, so good... but when it does become a story in a month or two, remember you read it at MarchManiacs.com back before Thanksgiving...
#4 Ohio State - I'll be the first to caution giddy Buckeye fans not to overlook the impact of the loss of defensive wizard David Lighty and his tremendous contribution in the "little things" department. However when likely Top 3 NBA Draft pick (if not #1 overall) Jared Sullinger surprises everyone and decides to return for his sophomore season, a little exuberance is to be tolerated.
And even though the school's alltime leader in 3-pointers made, Jon Diebler and sixth man tough-guy Dallas Lauderdale have also graduated, don't weep to openly for Coach Matta. The cupboard is far from bare in Columbus. Look for senior William Buford to fill in some of the scoring gaps (he was the team's unheralded second-leading scorer in 2011) and for Aaron Craft to continue to blossom in his sophomore season, evolving nicely into a gritty floor leader in the Chris Kramer+Jordan Taylor mold (to blend two Big Ten guards into a nice visual package for you).
6'7'' swingman Deshaun Thomas is a burgeoning star waiting to explode on to the scene for the Buckeyes, and while he won't make anyone forget David Lighty, he will certainly make the loss much less painful.
I have the Buckeyes in my Final Four, but a clear peg behind North Carolina and Kentucky. However, come March, I'm not sure they won't be that team that everyone takes a liking to as the #1 seed to pick for people shying away from the wire-to-wire darlings in Chapel Hill and Lexington.
Elite Eight:
We will dig in to each of these ballclubs in further detail in the not-so-distant future, but for brevity sake (I think this column is pushing 2000 words...) let's list 'em out quickly...
#5 - UConn - This year's team might actually be better than last year's surprising national champs. Jeremy Lamb is a legitimate National POY candidate.
#6 - Missouri - Their breakneck tempo and outstanding backcourt of Denmon and English could be the class of the Big 12.
#7 - Wisconsin - Granted, they haven't been sternly tested yet, but holding teams to under 38 ppg is an impressive defensive effort, even for a Bo Ryan coached squad. Add in the best point guard (when factoring in both ends of the court) in the country in Jordan Taylor, and you have a pretty good recipe for success.
Sweet and Lurking:
#9 - Louisville - Can Kyle Couric lead this team to the top of the Big East? The Card fan favorite has been excellent in the early season, but Pitino and crew will need some solid play from their big guys if they want to hang with UConn and Syracuse in the Big East.
#10 - Baylor - The most talented team in the Big 12, but I don't recall seeing them in the NCAA tourney last year, do you??
#11 - Alabama - Maybe Purdue is just worse than I thought, but watching Anthony Grant's team get after the Boilermakers defensively was impressive. I'd be stunned if this team is left out of the Big Dance again in 2012.
#12 - Florida - It's hard to hold a loss to Ohio State against them too badly. I am still not in love with their smallish backcourt, but the emergence of freshman Brad Beal will infuse a much-needed big time scorer jolt into that lineup.
#13 - Xavier - Tu Holloway is a true big time lead guard, cut from the mold of a Kemba Walker. Coach Mack hopes he can generate a similar result. Xavier plays a spectacular out-of-conference schedule that includes Gonzaga, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Memphis and Cincinnati (not to mention Long Beach State, who could prove a dangerous trap game), so we will get to find out pretty quickly just how legit the beast of the A-10 is as a Final Four contender in 2012.
#14 - Gonzaga - Elias Harris and Robert Sacre give the Zags one of the better veteran tandems in the country. Is 6'1'' freshman Kevin Pangos going to be able to continue to light it up from the outside to the tune of 18+ a night?
#15 - Vanderbilt - Yes, I know. They lost at home to Cleveland State. It was a bad loss. However, this is still one of the better teams in the country, especially once they get Festus Azili back from his six-game NCAA-imposed suspension. John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor combine for one of the best backcourt running mates in the country. The Commodores early season play doesn't earn them a Top 16 slot; even that 2-point win last night over Oregon State was sketchy... but I am still going to stick with Vandy and hope to be rewarded come February and March...
#16 - St. Louis - I always like to take a flyer on someone at the sixteenth slot, so let's really go for it to kick off the season. The Billikens beat the nonsense out of both Southern Illinois and Washington already this season, and have a legit chance to win their Thanksgiving tournament that tips off tomorrow against Boston College. Xavier is the class of the A10, and Temple has the bigger name, but don't be surprised is Saint Louis is ranked by season's end and a lock for an NCAA Tourney appearance.
It is with that smug spirit of contrarianism that we shall embark on the season innagural edition of Bracketeering! As always, comments, feedback and profanity-laced anatomically-challenging emails and posts are thoroughly enjoyed and welcomed...
FINAL FOUR:
#1 Kentucky - I'll spare you the email; YES, I was the guy who joked "time to start writing the 'Final Four Banners taken DOWN from the Rafters' story" within minutes of Coach Cal's hiring. Well, so far he has proven me half correct; there is a Final Four banner in the rafters. And in my opinion, it's likely another will be joining it this season. As far as the "taking it down" part, there is no evidence to suggest Calipari has made even the slightest errant step in Lexington. However, for those of you who were history majors in college...you know what they say about its repetition...
Anyhow - This is easily my favorite Kentucky team since Tubby Smith was in the Bluegrass. The Gilespie Era was an abject trainwreck. The John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins team was too erratic and immature (and frankly, just not a likeable mesh of players), and last year's Final Four team was nearly as ugly, and not nearly a Final Four caliber team most of the season aside from the final two weekends. This team is different than the past two editions of isolation and dribble drive, force up shots and buy time until the NBA Draft rolls around Kentucky basketball. Marquis Teague is a similarly top-ranked prep point guard, but he is more in the distributor mode than either John Wall or Brandin Knight. Terrance Jones is a year more seasoned and provides a legitimate first-team All-American swing/power forward with some ferocity, and Doron Lamb is the team's most reliable shooter and scorer from the perimter.
The nice thing is, this will get settled on the court in less than ten days. Until then, give me the Cats in the top slot.
#2 North Carolina - They are everyone's #1 for a reason. They are absolutely loaded. Barnes returned after a slow-starting, but quietly spectacular freshman season and should vie with Jared Sullinger for national player of the year honors in 2012. The inside duo of Henson and Zeller are as talented as any frontcourt in the nation (though I am not sold on their interior defensive presence; yes Henson is a good shot blocker, but is he really going to body a Jared Sullinger out of the lane??), and Marshall Strickland is a fantastic distributor who looks up the floor better than any collegiate guard in the country.
When looking at a team than is going to struggle to find minutes for McDonald's All-American freshman James McAdoo because of the dearth of talent, identifying flaws is obviously a nit-picking venture. However, nitpick I shall... this is not a perfect team in the mold of the two national championship teams in the Roy Williams era. Zeller has developed some pretty moves, but is nowhere near the reliable 'dump it in the post every time down the floor' scoring option that Tyler Hansbrough was. I'd grade him significantly behind Sean May in that regard as well. This team is also devoid of a defensive wing stopper in the mold of a Danny Green or Raymond Felton. And the outside shooting of the 2011-2012 Heels?? Let's just say they'd be wise to keep it up tempo and run run run.
This sounds like we're down on the Heels. Not true. In fact, to have this team anywhere outside of the Top Three is being contrarian for the sake of being obnoxious. And at MarchManiacs, we are obnoxious for completely independent reasons. UNC is fantastically talented, and I'm not sure either national championship team had a player with the beautiful slashing and mid-range game of Harrison Barnes. He has the ability to elevate this team from "fantastic" to "transcendent."
#3 Duke - Every flaw you could find about North Carolina? Flip them when discussing the Blue Devils. Duke has plenty of size and toughness inside. But no one even close to the feathery touch and deft post moves of Tyler Zeller. North Carolina has the consummate distributor and playmaker at point guard. Duke, in very un-Duke like fashion, has a makeshift point guard committee, with the primary ballhandling responsibilities falling to sharp shooter Seth Curry.
And perimeter shooting? Not an issue for the Dukies. Although Austin Rivers's shot selection still leaves a bit to be desired (more on that later), shooting from behind the arc is something this team will do as well as any team in the nation. Curry and Andre' Dawkins can flat-out knock it down. Rivers is potentially deadly albeit streaky, and no 6'11' player in the country shoots as well from distance as Duke's Brian Kelly.
The danger for Duke lies in the early tendency of freshman Austin Rivers to take about four or five ridiculous shots per game. So far, Coach K has seemed surprisingly patient with the frosh's shot selection, and his teammates have been typically plucky Duke supporters, clapping and cheering their teammate on. But at some point, in a big moment or as a tight tough game starts to slip away, you have to wonder if some of the frustration and tension might surface. So far, so good... but when it does become a story in a month or two, remember you read it at MarchManiacs.com back before Thanksgiving...
#4 Ohio State - I'll be the first to caution giddy Buckeye fans not to overlook the impact of the loss of defensive wizard David Lighty and his tremendous contribution in the "little things" department. However when likely Top 3 NBA Draft pick (if not #1 overall) Jared Sullinger surprises everyone and decides to return for his sophomore season, a little exuberance is to be tolerated.
And even though the school's alltime leader in 3-pointers made, Jon Diebler and sixth man tough-guy Dallas Lauderdale have also graduated, don't weep to openly for Coach Matta. The cupboard is far from bare in Columbus. Look for senior William Buford to fill in some of the scoring gaps (he was the team's unheralded second-leading scorer in 2011) and for Aaron Craft to continue to blossom in his sophomore season, evolving nicely into a gritty floor leader in the Chris Kramer+Jordan Taylor mold (to blend two Big Ten guards into a nice visual package for you).
6'7'' swingman Deshaun Thomas is a burgeoning star waiting to explode on to the scene for the Buckeyes, and while he won't make anyone forget David Lighty, he will certainly make the loss much less painful.
I have the Buckeyes in my Final Four, but a clear peg behind North Carolina and Kentucky. However, come March, I'm not sure they won't be that team that everyone takes a liking to as the #1 seed to pick for people shying away from the wire-to-wire darlings in Chapel Hill and Lexington.
Elite Eight:
We will dig in to each of these ballclubs in further detail in the not-so-distant future, but for brevity sake (I think this column is pushing 2000 words...) let's list 'em out quickly...
#5 - UConn - This year's team might actually be better than last year's surprising national champs. Jeremy Lamb is a legitimate National POY candidate.
#6 - Missouri - Their breakneck tempo and outstanding backcourt of Denmon and English could be the class of the Big 12.
#8 - Syracuse - Some questions remain on the perimeter, but Boeheim has yet another talented squad in Syracuse. Hopefully the allegations swirling around their longtime assistant coach prove meritless... for the sake of not just the alleged victims but college basketball fans everywhere.
Sweet and Lurking:
#9 - Louisville - Can Kyle Couric lead this team to the top of the Big East? The Card fan favorite has been excellent in the early season, but Pitino and crew will need some solid play from their big guys if they want to hang with UConn and Syracuse in the Big East.
#10 - Baylor - The most talented team in the Big 12, but I don't recall seeing them in the NCAA tourney last year, do you??
#11 - Alabama - Maybe Purdue is just worse than I thought, but watching Anthony Grant's team get after the Boilermakers defensively was impressive. I'd be stunned if this team is left out of the Big Dance again in 2012.
#12 - Florida - It's hard to hold a loss to Ohio State against them too badly. I am still not in love with their smallish backcourt, but the emergence of freshman Brad Beal will infuse a much-needed big time scorer jolt into that lineup.
#13 - Xavier - Tu Holloway is a true big time lead guard, cut from the mold of a Kemba Walker. Coach Mack hopes he can generate a similar result. Xavier plays a spectacular out-of-conference schedule that includes Gonzaga, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Memphis and Cincinnati (not to mention Long Beach State, who could prove a dangerous trap game), so we will get to find out pretty quickly just how legit the beast of the A-10 is as a Final Four contender in 2012.#14 - Gonzaga - Elias Harris and Robert Sacre give the Zags one of the better veteran tandems in the country. Is 6'1'' freshman Kevin Pangos going to be able to continue to light it up from the outside to the tune of 18+ a night?
#15 - Vanderbilt - Yes, I know. They lost at home to Cleveland State. It was a bad loss. However, this is still one of the better teams in the country, especially once they get Festus Azili back from his six-game NCAA-imposed suspension. John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor combine for one of the best backcourt running mates in the country. The Commodores early season play doesn't earn them a Top 16 slot; even that 2-point win last night over Oregon State was sketchy... but I am still going to stick with Vandy and hope to be rewarded come February and March...
#16 - St. Louis - I always like to take a flyer on someone at the sixteenth slot, so let's really go for it to kick off the season. The Billikens beat the nonsense out of both Southern Illinois and Washington already this season, and have a legit chance to win their Thanksgiving tournament that tips off tomorrow against Boston College. Xavier is the class of the A10, and Temple has the bigger name, but don't be surprised is Saint Louis is ranked by season's end and a lock for an NCAA Tourney appearance.
Ben Hansbrough is the Big East POY - and Two Picks for Tuesday
The college hoops world was abuzz this weekend debating the merits of BYU as a #1 seed. After the Cougars impressive road win at 27-1 San Diego State, all anyone wanted to know was 'did they deserve to be in the conversation with Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, Pitt and Texas?'
We might want to add another name to that list. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame boasts a senior laden club that shares the ball well, defends with solid team defense, and absolutely shoots the eyes out of the basketball. Villanova caught the full brunt of all three last night; surrendering a staggering twenty 3-point field goals in a 93-72 defeat that wasn’t even as close as the lopsided score. At one point in the middle of the second half, Notre Dame led 60-34 before a little lax defensively late in garbage time.
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| Is there a tougher guard in the country? |
One thing I know for sure - Ben Hansbrough deserves to be the Big East Player of the Year. Forget the gaudy stats of Kemba Walker. Take away some of the enormous point games Kemba put up prior to conference play, and you’ll see Hansbrough’s numbers are very similar – with a ton less turnovers and a TON less forced shots.
Tonight’s 30 point, 10 assist performance against a Top 15 team was as impressive and individual performance as the Big East has seen this season – and yes, I’m aware Marshon Brooks hung 52 on these same Irish two weeks ago.
The Irish are still a bit on the outside looking in as far as the #1 discussion goes. However , a few more performances like the one they put on tonight and it won’t be just the Irish eyes smiling – it’ll also be the Selection Committee’s.
Today’s Free College Basketball Picks: (excepted from the Maniac's Column for The Sports Geek)
Baylor Bears +2 @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears entered the season with high aspirations coming off of last season’s Elite Eight run. Ekpe Udoh and Tweety Carter were gone, but with a stud freshman class coming in and LaceDarius Dunn returning things looked bright.
Fast forward a few months, and things haven’t quite gone according to plan. At 18-10 (7-7), Baylor is definitely one the bubble. A loss at Oklahoma State would likely pop it; especially with Colorado’s upset win over Texas this weekend.
Baylor has been a complete wreck of late, dropping four of their last seven, including crippling losses to Oklahoma and Texas Tech. In fact, in Big Twelve play Baylor is just 2-5 on the road. In addition to the above losses, they also managed to slip in a loss at Ames to Iowa State. Losses to those three teams don’t really help your case with the Selection Committee.
Oklahoma State on the other hand has no illusions of postseason grandeur. Their role from here on out is simply to play spoiler, a role they played well at home against Missouri and Kansas State. However, much like Baylor, it’s been a rocky few weeks for the ‘Pokes. They’ve lost 4 of 5, though their losses have been a little more respectable than Baylor’s, having lost to Nebraska, Texas, Kansas and Texas A&M.
In Big Twelve play Oklahoma State has gone a solid 5-2 at home, while Baylor has gone a lackluster 2-5 on the road. You do the math. It equates to a pretty easy selection for Oklahoma State laying the two.
PICK: Oklahoma State -2
Alabama Crimson +6 @ Florida Gators
If you would have told me that this game would have enormous NCAA Tournament implications, and for Alabama nonetheless, I would have thought you were insane. After Alabama’s eight place finish in their holiday tournament that included losses to Seton Hall, Iowa, and St. Peter’s, it looked like it was going to be a LONG year for Anthony Grant and the Tide.
The Tide’s turnaround was nothing short of amazing, and they enter tomorrow night’s contest in Gainesville at 19-9, 11-3 in SEC play; easily clinching the SEC West, and tied with the Gators for the best record in the entire league. The winner of tonight’s contest will be the presumptive #1 overall seed in next week’s SEC Tournament.
The Tide have won 4 of 5, 9 of their last 11, and more impressively 14 of their last 17 contests. Simply put, the Tide are for real, and might just be the best team in the SEC. Regardless of this game’s outcome, they have earned their spot in the Field of 68 far more than Georgia (and maybe even Tennessee). Florida has also played very well after some early season disappointments. The Gators have won 6 of 7, and an identical 14 of 17 overall.
Alabama’s three conference losses all came on the road; Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Mississippi. Florida’s three losses were a mixed bag, with two on the road (Mississippi State and this weekend’s Kentucky loss at Rupp), and their ‘mulligan’; an early season loss hosting South Carolina.
Both teams have a ton to play for. Despite the Gator’s home court advantage, I’m not quite willing to lay a full six points. Of the Tide’s three losses, none were by more than five points. Of the Gators eleven wins, only three were by double-digits.This game has all the makings of a true ‘Battle for First Place’ classic. I think Florida squeaks out a win, but love the Tide taking ‘em on a ride first.
PICK: Alabama Crimson Tide +6
Bayl-ed Out at the Buzzer
My spellchecker seriously hates my article titles. My Mom doesn't understand them. Yet, despite the obstacles I still continue to strive to provide you, my loyal readers, some of the most terrible puns and forced "clever" headlines on the web.
You're welcome.
It is safe to assume the Baylor Bears are feeling some gratitude as well today after keeping their at-large hopes breathing with an overtime, last-second tip-in win at Texas A&M.
For Baylor it was an absolutely critical win coming off the surprising and disappointing loss at Oklahoma. For Texas A&M, it's their fourth loss in five games since cracking the Top 10 (no need to any clever headlines to say told ya' so... because, well... yeah). It isn't quite panic time yet in College Stattion, but coupled with Kansas State's dramatic win over Iowa State on a Jacob Pullen game winner, things are getting a little congested in the middle of the Big Twelve pack.
Up next for Baylor is MUST win visit from Nebraska and then a trip to Austin next Saturday to take on the red-hot Longhorns. Texas A&M will try to get things back on track as they enter an enormously critical five game stretch that features only one team with a shot (unlikely, but a shot) to make the Dance in Oklahoma State. Anything less than 3-2 puts them squarely on the bubble and makes closing with back to back trips to Baylor and Kansas even more daunting.
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| Baylor picked up a critical win today. |
You're welcome.
It is safe to assume the Baylor Bears are feeling some gratitude as well today after keeping their at-large hopes breathing with an overtime, last-second tip-in win at Texas A&M.
For Baylor it was an absolutely critical win coming off the surprising and disappointing loss at Oklahoma. For Texas A&M, it's their fourth loss in five games since cracking the Top 10 (no need to any clever headlines to say told ya' so... because, well... yeah). It isn't quite panic time yet in College Stattion, but coupled with Kansas State's dramatic win over Iowa State on a Jacob Pullen game winner, things are getting a little congested in the middle of the Big Twelve pack.
Up next for Baylor is MUST win visit from Nebraska and then a trip to Austin next Saturday to take on the red-hot Longhorns. Texas A&M will try to get things back on track as they enter an enormously critical five game stretch that features only one team with a shot (unlikely, but a shot) to make the Dance in Oklahoma State. Anything less than 3-2 puts them squarely on the bubble and makes closing with back to back trips to Baylor and Kansas even more daunting.
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Trouble Bubblin'? Michigan State Among Teams on the Slide
It's February, so all college hoops fans know the word de juor from here on out - that of course being the dreaded "bubble." Nearly every conference is about at the halfway point and most teams across the country are gearing up for that all important (though the committee claims it officially doesn't matter...) ten game stretch run to the end of the season.
In our first bubble update, we're going to focus on some teams who are sliding the wrong way. There were more than a few of them tonight.
Baylor had a weird circumstance today, as their game was moved up to an early afternoon tip-off due to last night's contest in Norman being postponed by bad weather. Perhaps someone should have told the Bears to get up a little early... They looked horribly flat and took a potentially devastating loss, 73-66 to Oklahoma. The loss dropped Baylor to 14-7 (4-4).
It's odd to see Memphis lose a game in Conference USA. It's really odd to see them suffer their second straight loss, on their home floor, to another opponent with no chance of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team. But that's exactly what happened tonight. The Tigers stole the ball with eight seconds to play and had two attempts at an overtime-forcing three, but when the second attempt clanged off the rim Tulsa escaped with a 68-65 win. Memphis falls to 16-6 (5-3) and in some real danger of missing the tourney for a second straight year.
Kudos to Tom Crean and his suddenly competitive Hoosiers. However, bad news for Minnesota who finds themselves back on the familiar bubble after dropping a should-win, even on the road, to IU. Tubby's Gophers are still ranked in the Top 25, but at 16-6, and 5-5 in the Big Ten with upcoming games against Ohio State and Illinois, the Gophers are not on nearly as solid footing as one might think.
Lastly, it's hard to even quantify the disaster that is coming to life to Tom Izzo and his Spartans. Ranked in the Top 5 in the nation early in the season, things might have hit rock bottom tonight with their twenty point blowout loss at lowly Iowa. It is only the second conference win on the season for the Hawkeyes, who climb to 9-13 with the win.
Michigan State failed to do something that South Dakota State accomplished to start this season; win in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. It's beyond panic time in East Lansing. With the loss the Spartans fall to 13-9, (5-5). More troubling than their record, which is given some leeway with the tremendous strength of schedule, is their recent play. The Spartans are 2-5 over the last seven games, with losses to three of the four worst teams in the conference; Iowa, Michigan and Penn State, and one of their two wins an overtime escape against the other cellar-dweller, Indiana.
Any responsible bracket projection done today has to exclude the Spartans, as bizarre as that is to type. With two of their next three games AT Wisconsin (where no one ever wins) and @ Ohio State (who is #1 in the nation) it is all but last-call for Sparty and their nearly two-decade long run of tourney appearances.
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| Should have set a wake-up call |
Baylor had a weird circumstance today, as their game was moved up to an early afternoon tip-off due to last night's contest in Norman being postponed by bad weather. Perhaps someone should have told the Bears to get up a little early... They looked horribly flat and took a potentially devastating loss, 73-66 to Oklahoma. The loss dropped Baylor to 14-7 (4-4).
It's odd to see Memphis lose a game in Conference USA. It's really odd to see them suffer their second straight loss, on their home floor, to another opponent with no chance of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team. But that's exactly what happened tonight. The Tigers stole the ball with eight seconds to play and had two attempts at an overtime-forcing three, but when the second attempt clanged off the rim Tulsa escaped with a 68-65 win. Memphis falls to 16-6 (5-3) and in some real danger of missing the tourney for a second straight year.
Kudos to Tom Crean and his suddenly competitive Hoosiers. However, bad news for Minnesota who finds themselves back on the familiar bubble after dropping a should-win, even on the road, to IU. Tubby's Gophers are still ranked in the Top 25, but at 16-6, and 5-5 in the Big Ten with upcoming games against Ohio State and Illinois, the Gophers are not on nearly as solid footing as one might think.
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| We feel your pain Tom... |
Michigan State failed to do something that South Dakota State accomplished to start this season; win in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. It's beyond panic time in East Lansing. With the loss the Spartans fall to 13-9, (5-5). More troubling than their record, which is given some leeway with the tremendous strength of schedule, is their recent play. The Spartans are 2-5 over the last seven games, with losses to three of the four worst teams in the conference; Iowa, Michigan and Penn State, and one of their two wins an overtime escape against the other cellar-dweller, Indiana.
Any responsible bracket projection done today has to exclude the Spartans, as bizarre as that is to type. With two of their next three games AT Wisconsin (where no one ever wins) and @ Ohio State (who is #1 in the nation) it is all but last-call for Sparty and their nearly two-decade long run of tourney appearances.
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Big Results in the Big Twelve
Nebraska wanted to make sure everyone knew they planned on contending for an NCAA Tournament bid. Beating Texas A&M today 57-48 should accomplish that mission pretty well.
With the win, the Huskers move to 15-5 (3-3), while Texas A&M fell to 17-3 (4-2). Nebraska is still perched on the wrong side of the bubble, but are certainly in the mix with Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Colorado - all jostling for position in the middle of the Big Twelve pack. Depending on how things unfold anywhere from two to four of those teams could find themselves dancing in March.
My gut feel, based on the lack of many compelling mid-major cases building and the strong argument for the Big Twelve as the best conference in the country, I think the conference earns six bids, meaning three of the above likely get the nod.
Baylor certainly hopes and expectto be one of them. Following last season's Elite Eight run, expectations were high for Scott Drew and the Baylor Bears. Tweety Carter and Ekpe Udoh are gone, but LaceDariuis Dunn and a fantastic freshman class were in place to continue the Bears' resurgence. Today's 70-66 victory over Colorado strengthens their case considerably, as well as dealing a tough blow to one of their fellow bubble mates.
Baylor moves to 14-6 (4-3) with the win, while Colorado falls to 14-8 (3-4) with the loss. Baylor is likely in solid shape for the Tourney, provided they can avoid any more bad losses like last weeks 72-59 loss to Iowa State. Colorado's path is going to be a lot tougher. Not only are they likely currently last on the above list of Big Twelve tourney hopefuls, they also are entering a brutal schedule stretch. After Tuesday's visit from Iowa State the Buffaloes face: @Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State, @Kansas. Anything less than 3-2 over that stretch likely spells the end of Colorado's tourney hopes.
** Tonight's marquee match-up at 9PM: Texas @ Missouri (ESPN2) **
MANIAC'S TOURNEY PROJECTIONS - BIG TWELVE:
LOCKS - Texas, Kansas, Missouri
SHOULD BE IN - Texas A&M, Baylor
POSSIBLE - Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Colorado (I like K-St getting in over the other three who will land softly in the NIT)
.
With the win, the Huskers move to 15-5 (3-3), while Texas A&M fell to 17-3 (4-2). Nebraska is still perched on the wrong side of the bubble, but are certainly in the mix with Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Colorado - all jostling for position in the middle of the Big Twelve pack. Depending on how things unfold anywhere from two to four of those teams could find themselves dancing in March.
My gut feel, based on the lack of many compelling mid-major cases building and the strong argument for the Big Twelve as the best conference in the country, I think the conference earns six bids, meaning three of the above likely get the nod.
 |
| Dunn's 26 powered Baylor over Colorado. |
Baylor moves to 14-6 (4-3) with the win, while Colorado falls to 14-8 (3-4) with the loss. Baylor is likely in solid shape for the Tourney, provided they can avoid any more bad losses like last weeks 72-59 loss to Iowa State. Colorado's path is going to be a lot tougher. Not only are they likely currently last on the above list of Big Twelve tourney hopefuls, they also are entering a brutal schedule stretch. After Tuesday's visit from Iowa State the Buffaloes face: @Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State, @Kansas. Anything less than 3-2 over that stretch likely spells the end of Colorado's tourney hopes.
MANIAC'S TOURNEY PROJECTIONS - BIG TWELVE:
LOCKS - Texas, Kansas, Missouri
SHOULD BE IN - Texas A&M, Baylor
POSSIBLE - Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Colorado (I like K-St getting in over the other three who will land softly in the NIT)
.
Diamond Head Classic Quiet Christmas Gem
Lost amidst football bowl season, NBA Christmas festvities and NFL playoff pushes is a quiet college basketball gem in Honolulu. None of the teams in this year's Diamond Head Classic field make your eyes pop out, but with the possible exception of a very down San Diego squad, none will make you quickly avert your eyes from the screen either.
The favorites would have to be Baylor in the top half of the bracket, and Butler and Florida State in the bottom, though don't sleep on Washington State who enters the tournament at 8-1, including a 30-point thrashing of Gonzaga.
I'll take Washington State over Baylor in an upset, and Florida State over Butler in Rd 2. In the Final, give me the 'Noles in a close game.
Tournament MVP Pick: Klay Thompson (Washington State)
The favorites would have to be Baylor in the top half of the bracket, and Butler and Florida State in the bottom, though don't sleep on Washington State who enters the tournament at 8-1, including a 30-point thrashing of Gonzaga.
I'll take Washington State over Baylor in an upset, and Florida State over Butler in Rd 2. In the Final, give me the 'Noles in a close game.
Tournament MVP Pick: Klay Thompson (Washington State)
Moving and Shaking
Today is going to be filled with movers and shakers. Movers; as into prime tourney position; and Shakers, teams whose footing is going to be shaky with a loss to say the least.
Here is a quick rundown of the biggest games of a packed Saturday.
Louisville @ West Virginia: The Cards are 13-7, and a loss today would drop them to 13-8. With nary a great win on their resume and looming blowout losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina, anything shy of a huge step-up game today leaves them in dire straights. For the Mountaineers, a number one seed isn't out of the question, but they can't drop any more home games. Especially to teams like the 'Ville.
Marquette @ Connecticut: The Warriors are the textbook definition of a tough-luck ballclub, having lost three games in conference to Top 25 team in the final seconds. Since the NCAA committee rarely looks at margin of loss, the biggest stat that matters right now is 12-8. Connecticut is only one game better at 13-7, but has better non-conference wins (and losses) and a little more name cache (not that it is supposed to matter). Interesting fact, Marquette is 0-5 on the road this season. If that streak runs to six, it's time to kick some dirt on their grave. However, should they win, the middle of the BEast gets intersting with both teams in a six or seven team scrum for likely two, possibly three bids. It's a BIG game in Storrs (but let's hope the Huskie fans don't storm the court if they win...seriously...stay off the floor.)
Duke @ Georgetown: Wow! How often do we get an Elite Eight level non-conference game this late in the year? Not very often, so enjoy it. The winner puts a HUGE chip in their pile and stays on track for a #1 or #2 seed. Duke loses less with a loss since its a true road game. If the Hoyas lose, it has them trending towards a 4/5 seed. Neither team is crippled with a loss, but still a fantastic game worth tuning in to.
Oklahoma St. @ Missouri: A HUGE battle for 4th place in the Big 12 (and with K-State at Kansas tonight, perhaps even third place...). Both teams have been pleasantly surprising this year, easily outpacing Oklahoma and Texas Tech. OK State is 16-4, Mizzou stands at 15-5, and they are tied in conference play. This game gives the winner a huge leg up in getting to the Dance.
Baylor @ Texas: Put Baylor in the category with the two teams above; pleasantly surprising. Texas is still a beast - don't let the recent slide fool you. They are still in line for a possible #1 seed...unless Baylor clips them on the road. A win like this one would likely have Scott Drew's Bears on the right side of the bubble come March.
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: Forget the subplot lines; Kentucky rebounding from their first loss, Vandy trying to stay hot, etc. This game is for the lead in the SEC East. If Vandy nips the Cats, they would open up a two game conference lead and have already beaten Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina on the road. Doesn't that sound like the resume of a Top 2 seed?? Not saying ANY of that will happen, but today's game is bigger than it looks on paper (and in the AP polls).
Harvard @ Cornell: Forget the hyperbole for all the games I scrawled above about getting in or not making the tournament. The most important game of the day is happening on the campus of the Cornell Red. The Ivy League is the only league that refuses to play a conference tournament, meaning the regular season winner gets the league's tourney bid. I have read a few columns that suggested the Red would earn an at-large bid should they falter to the Crimson. Don't believe that for a second! Sentimentality aside, their signature "win" is a close loss to Kansas. If that's what you are looking for, give Charlie Weiss and extension at Notre Dame. This game is do-or-die, and probably the best game in the country tomorrow. Of course, unless you live on campus at Cornell, I don't think you'll be able to see it...just check back here for the coverage...
Northwestern @ Michigan State: Many people on TV and radio suggested the Wildcats need this game to have any chance at the tourney (not true - as my loyal readers know) BUT if they can repeat last year's surprising win at Sparty it does put a HUGE chip in their pile for earning their first ever NCAA bid. That said, don't dispair when Sparty hammers them.
Kansas @ Kansas State: The Maniac was one of many who praised the KSU students for staying OFF the court after beating then-number one Texas. Drop now #1 Kansas? Have at it guys, have at it. And while you are at it, dodge the subsequent let down game and you have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 and earning a #2 seed. For KU, a win here puts them back atop the polls and has them trending towards the #1 overall seed in the tournament.
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Here is a quick rundown of the biggest games of a packed Saturday.
Louisville @ West Virginia: The Cards are 13-7, and a loss today would drop them to 13-8. With nary a great win on their resume and looming blowout losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina, anything shy of a huge step-up game today leaves them in dire straights. For the Mountaineers, a number one seed isn't out of the question, but they can't drop any more home games. Especially to teams like the 'Ville.
Marquette @ Connecticut: The Warriors are the textbook definition of a tough-luck ballclub, having lost three games in conference to Top 25 team in the final seconds. Since the NCAA committee rarely looks at margin of loss, the biggest stat that matters right now is 12-8. Connecticut is only one game better at 13-7, but has better non-conference wins (and losses) and a little more name cache (not that it is supposed to matter). Interesting fact, Marquette is 0-5 on the road this season. If that streak runs to six, it's time to kick some dirt on their grave. However, should they win, the middle of the BEast gets intersting with both teams in a six or seven team scrum for likely two, possibly three bids. It's a BIG game in Storrs (but let's hope the Huskie fans don't storm the court if they win...seriously...stay off the floor.)
Duke @ Georgetown: Wow! How often do we get an Elite Eight level non-conference game this late in the year? Not very often, so enjoy it. The winner puts a HUGE chip in their pile and stays on track for a #1 or #2 seed. Duke loses less with a loss since its a true road game. If the Hoyas lose, it has them trending towards a 4/5 seed. Neither team is crippled with a loss, but still a fantastic game worth tuning in to.
Oklahoma St. @ Missouri: A HUGE battle for 4th place in the Big 12 (and with K-State at Kansas tonight, perhaps even third place...). Both teams have been pleasantly surprising this year, easily outpacing Oklahoma and Texas Tech. OK State is 16-4, Mizzou stands at 15-5, and they are tied in conference play. This game gives the winner a huge leg up in getting to the Dance.
Baylor @ Texas: Put Baylor in the category with the two teams above; pleasantly surprising. Texas is still a beast - don't let the recent slide fool you. They are still in line for a possible #1 seed...unless Baylor clips them on the road. A win like this one would likely have Scott Drew's Bears on the right side of the bubble come March.
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: Forget the subplot lines; Kentucky rebounding from their first loss, Vandy trying to stay hot, etc. This game is for the lead in the SEC East. If Vandy nips the Cats, they would open up a two game conference lead and have already beaten Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina on the road. Doesn't that sound like the resume of a Top 2 seed?? Not saying ANY of that will happen, but today's game is bigger than it looks on paper (and in the AP polls).
Harvard @ Cornell: Forget the hyperbole for all the games I scrawled above about getting in or not making the tournament. The most important game of the day is happening on the campus of the Cornell Red. The Ivy League is the only league that refuses to play a conference tournament, meaning the regular season winner gets the league's tourney bid. I have read a few columns that suggested the Red would earn an at-large bid should they falter to the Crimson. Don't believe that for a second! Sentimentality aside, their signature "win" is a close loss to Kansas. If that's what you are looking for, give Charlie Weiss and extension at Notre Dame. This game is do-or-die, and probably the best game in the country tomorrow. Of course, unless you live on campus at Cornell, I don't think you'll be able to see it...just check back here for the coverage...
Northwestern @ Michigan State: Many people on TV and radio suggested the Wildcats need this game to have any chance at the tourney (not true - as my loyal readers know) BUT if they can repeat last year's surprising win at Sparty it does put a HUGE chip in their pile for earning their first ever NCAA bid. That said, don't dispair when Sparty hammers them.
Kansas @ Kansas State: The Maniac was one of many who praised the KSU students for staying OFF the court after beating then-number one Texas. Drop now #1 Kansas? Have at it guys, have at it. And while you are at it, dodge the subsequent let down game and you have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 and earning a #2 seed. For KU, a win here puts them back atop the polls and has them trending towards the #1 overall seed in the tournament.
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Done? Oklahoma Drops Conference Opener by 31
I was hesitant to bury Oklahoma too soon. Then they went out and lost 91-60 to Baylor in the conference opener... No article or really much to say, just thought that was the most startling score of the weekend that slipped a bit under the radar. Baylor is good, probably tourney good this year. But still, a 31 point loss in the opener? Things are getting really close to over in Norman for Capel and Willie Warren.
Let's call tonight what it is. Last chance time. Get housed by Oklahoma State tonight on ESPN and we can start talking football in Norman, OK.
Let's call tonight what it is. Last chance time. Get housed by Oklahoma State tonight on ESPN and we can start talking football in Norman, OK.
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New Year's Conference Resolutions: Big Twelve
Here's the second of ten conference installments of some New Year's Resolutions and Prognostications. As always, your dissension is welcomed...
BIG Twelve:
The Big Twelve came into the year as our Playboy Award candidate (conference heaviest up top with a lot of airbrushing below), with Kansas and Texas clearly being a notch above everyone else and quite possibly above the rest of the country.
Having two dominant superpowers rule the roost isn't necessarily a bad thing; see Duke and UNC in the ACC. However, the question loomed, is there any depth beyond the Big Two in this year's Big 12? So far this season, it has looked like there certainly is, and there might possibly be a few Sweet 16 caliber teams lurking around.
Kansas State has to be one of the most pleasant surprises in 2009, racing out to an impressive 12-1 start with wins over Xavier, UNLV, Dayton and Washington State. Baylor has also looked better than expected and should contend for a bid.
Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have amassed some early wins as well and should contend for a bid...though we're not quite ready to label them tourney bound just yet. The only glaring dissapointment thus far has been Oklahoma. We knew there would be an adjustment perios without Blake and Taylor Griffin, but felt confident Willie Warren would be able to hold the rope (particularly with "Tiny" Gallon anchoring it...) So far? Not so good. Not good at all.
Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:
The Good:
Texas looks fantastic, and we have felt solid having them at the top spot in Bracketeering from the season's outset. The 76-70 sleep-walk today against TX-Corpus Christi is understandable; their two games prior were wins over UNC and Michigan State. A letdown was inevitable. Rick Barnes has a few weeks to get them geared up for back-to-backers at Kansas State and at UConn.
Kansas is good. OK, Kansas is real good. After watching them dismantle Temple on the road toady I'm ready to concede this is probably the best team in the country. They have no holes. Sherron Collins is distributing the ball and running the team flawlessly. Xavier Henry is truly playing the "Grant Hill 1991" role on this team. Watching his poise, intelligence fused with blinding athleticism and a feathery touch on the mid range jumper... to me the comparison is accurate and uncanny. Throw in the best back-to-the-basket center in the nation in Alderich and it isn't unreasonable to think they will be unbeaten when the Feb. 8th date with Texas comes rolling around.
Win that one? Yeah...it does get intriguing...
Kansas State is not just good. They are Sweet Sixteen caliber legit. It is tough to put them in a category with the two above, but they seem like tourney locks barring a complete collapse and deserve the separation from the pack..
The Unknown:
Here is where things get a little dicey in the Big 12. Early season performance would seem to merit five to seven (high side) bids come March. The above three are locks. Here's how The Maniac sees it playing out for the remaining bids.
I like the talent and chemistry Scott Drew has working down in Baylor. In 2007 they were the conference's darlings, making an improbable return to respectability and the NCAA tourney. Last year they disappointed under heightened expectations and we were forced to wonder just where this program truly stood. An 11-1 start with wins over Xavier, South Carolina and Arizona State is a good indication the ceiling is high. They have solid guard play with Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn and Udoh gives them a nice presence in the paint. I think Baylor returns to the dance, but it will be an interesting ride.
My conference sleeper is Missouri. Little was expected of the Tigers after losing DeMarre Carroll and three other starters from last year's Elite Eight squad. However, the Tigers are entering league play at 11-3 with some impressive wins under their belt: Old Dominion. Illinois by 13. Georgia by 28. Oregon by 37. Not just the wins, but the margins tell me that the Tigers frenetic style can still be effective, even with personal changes. They are a surprising threat to get back to the NCAA Tournament.
Okahoma State and Texas Tech are the toughest reads. Both have very good records that would likely get them tourney consideration with .500 conference seasons. However, I just don't think either is quite good enough to get on the other side of the bubble. Texas Tech's best win is Washington. Their only other decent win is Stanford. They've lost to Wichita State by 2 and failed their big litmus test last week losing to New Mexico by 15. More troubling is the struggles they've had with team's they are supposed to beat; Oregon State by 4, Stephen F. Austin by 2, McNeese State by one... they just don't seem ready for Big 12 rigors to me.
Ditto for Oklahoma State. Their best win is a 1-pointer over Stanford and a win over a down Utah team. They've lost to the two best teams they've faced; Rhode Island and Tulsa. Exactly the teams they'll be on the Big Board against when the committee has to decide whether to invite a fifth or sixth Big 12 team or reward one of the "have-nots." Those losses tip the scales undeniably in the opposite direction for the 'Pokes.
If a sixth team does get in, I like Texas A&M. The Aggies have slipped off the radar the past few weeks after losses at Washington and New Mexico (by 3- no shame in that loss). They do already own wins over Clemson and Minnesota, two teams that could very likely find themselves in a similar spot come March; 18-19 wins, fifth or sixth place in a power league. Those are good chips in the Ag's favor. They get Texas only once this year and get to host that game in late February. A win over the Horns could punch their dance card.
Oklahoma stays in the "unknown" category, simply because it is still too early to completely write them off. Willie Warren has struggled and it appears as though Jeff Capel is struggling with what to do with the talented Soph. They got hammered on New Year's by Gonzaga in yet another no-show against a quality opponent. They got waxed by VCU, and have losses to UTEP, Houston and San Diego - each more difficult to explain in ascending order. The 1-point win over Northern Colorado and the squeaker with Utah don't inspire much confidence either.
So why are they still above the Maniac's cut line? They still have NBA-level talent; particularly in Warren. And because other than trips to Lawrence and Austin there isn't a game they can't win on that schedule. 10-6 in the Big 12 gets you dancing. It's possible for the Sooners. But they better get it together. And Soon...
Iowa State - Of all the teams near the bottom group, this one is the most disappointing. With Craig Brackens surprising draft experts and deciding to come back to school, some optimism that the Cyclones could return to the tourney for the first time since Tim Floyd had Marcus Fizer and Jamaal Tinsley (and one of the Maniac's faves, Paul Shirley) in uniform began to arise. Three losses in a row dampened things a bid, but when the smoke clears losing to Northwestern (by 2), Northern Iowa (by 3) and at Cal aren't terrible losses. The schedule gives them an opportunity for redemption with a trip to Cameron Indoor and the Dukies...but it is just as likely a stern national showing of how NIT-at-best the 'Clones are in 2010. For the same reason as above with the Sooners, they stay above the cut-line, but they are a distant 10th in my estimation - a true long shot.
The BAD:
Colorado has always seemed a sleeping giant to me. Unfortunately no one woke them up again this year. Perhaps Chauncey Billups has a year of eligibility hiding somewhere... They showed a little fight early, hanging real tough with Gonzaga and Arizona over in Maui. Since then they have been blasted by 15 by Colorado State and by 25 at Tulsa. There is a good chance they are no better than the third or fourth best team in a basketball-light state (Northen Colorado and Denver).
Nebraska seems to pile 10 or 11 non-conference wins up every year. Just enough to keep them in that "if they win 4 of their last 5 they have a bubble shot" discussion every year. We;re not falling for it. They have two solid wins; USC and Tulsa. As a matter of fact, glancing over their resume, I get the feeling if they could just squeeze eight wins out in conference play....
Ah, forget it.
Final Score:
Texas and Kansas are #1 seeds in March. I just can't see anyone closing the gap enough to push either of them out. Kansas State feels like a Top 4 seed as well, and definitely no worse than a solid tourney team. This is the only conference in the country with two legit national champion contenders (Yes, the Big Ten and Big East could. But No one in the stratosphere of KU and UT though.)
It will be a rocky ride on the bubble all year in the middle of the pack. Like many conferences of this high caliber, parity will smack around the pack. That said, I like Baylor, Missouri and A&M to dance. Oklahoma is still a quality sleeper to watch and Oklahoma State and Texas Tech should get in if the can stay north of .500. In doing that, they'd knock off one of the other's above.
The Big 12 should factor no worse than the 4th best RPI conference overall, and most likely Texas and Kansas should push them to #2 or #3. That should be good enough for 6 bids in March, though seven isn't out of the question.
BIG Twelve:
The Big Twelve came into the year as our Playboy Award candidate (conference heaviest up top with a lot of airbrushing below), with Kansas and Texas clearly being a notch above everyone else and quite possibly above the rest of the country.
Having two dominant superpowers rule the roost isn't necessarily a bad thing; see Duke and UNC in the ACC. However, the question loomed, is there any depth beyond the Big Two in this year's Big 12? So far this season, it has looked like there certainly is, and there might possibly be a few Sweet 16 caliber teams lurking around.
Kansas State has to be one of the most pleasant surprises in 2009, racing out to an impressive 12-1 start with wins over Xavier, UNLV, Dayton and Washington State. Baylor has also looked better than expected and should contend for a bid.
Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have amassed some early wins as well and should contend for a bid...though we're not quite ready to label them tourney bound just yet. The only glaring dissapointment thus far has been Oklahoma. We knew there would be an adjustment perios without Blake and Taylor Griffin, but felt confident Willie Warren would be able to hold the rope (particularly with "Tiny" Gallon anchoring it...) So far? Not so good. Not good at all.
Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:
The Good:
Texas looks fantastic, and we have felt solid having them at the top spot in Bracketeering from the season's outset. The 76-70 sleep-walk today against TX-Corpus Christi is understandable; their two games prior were wins over UNC and Michigan State. A letdown was inevitable. Rick Barnes has a few weeks to get them geared up for back-to-backers at Kansas State and at UConn.
Kansas is good. OK, Kansas is real good. After watching them dismantle Temple on the road toady I'm ready to concede this is probably the best team in the country. They have no holes. Sherron Collins is distributing the ball and running the team flawlessly. Xavier Henry is truly playing the "Grant Hill 1991" role on this team. Watching his poise, intelligence fused with blinding athleticism and a feathery touch on the mid range jumper... to me the comparison is accurate and uncanny. Throw in the best back-to-the-basket center in the nation in Alderich and it isn't unreasonable to think they will be unbeaten when the Feb. 8th date with Texas comes rolling around.
Win that one? Yeah...it does get intriguing...
Kansas State is not just good. They are Sweet Sixteen caliber legit. It is tough to put them in a category with the two above, but they seem like tourney locks barring a complete collapse and deserve the separation from the pack..
The Unknown:
Here is where things get a little dicey in the Big 12. Early season performance would seem to merit five to seven (high side) bids come March. The above three are locks. Here's how The Maniac sees it playing out for the remaining bids.
I like the talent and chemistry Scott Drew has working down in Baylor. In 2007 they were the conference's darlings, making an improbable return to respectability and the NCAA tourney. Last year they disappointed under heightened expectations and we were forced to wonder just where this program truly stood. An 11-1 start with wins over Xavier, South Carolina and Arizona State is a good indication the ceiling is high. They have solid guard play with Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn and Udoh gives them a nice presence in the paint. I think Baylor returns to the dance, but it will be an interesting ride.
My conference sleeper is Missouri. Little was expected of the Tigers after losing DeMarre Carroll and three other starters from last year's Elite Eight squad. However, the Tigers are entering league play at 11-3 with some impressive wins under their belt: Old Dominion. Illinois by 13. Georgia by 28. Oregon by 37. Not just the wins, but the margins tell me that the Tigers frenetic style can still be effective, even with personal changes. They are a surprising threat to get back to the NCAA Tournament.
Okahoma State and Texas Tech are the toughest reads. Both have very good records that would likely get them tourney consideration with .500 conference seasons. However, I just don't think either is quite good enough to get on the other side of the bubble. Texas Tech's best win is Washington. Their only other decent win is Stanford. They've lost to Wichita State by 2 and failed their big litmus test last week losing to New Mexico by 15. More troubling is the struggles they've had with team's they are supposed to beat; Oregon State by 4, Stephen F. Austin by 2, McNeese State by one... they just don't seem ready for Big 12 rigors to me.
Ditto for Oklahoma State. Their best win is a 1-pointer over Stanford and a win over a down Utah team. They've lost to the two best teams they've faced; Rhode Island and Tulsa. Exactly the teams they'll be on the Big Board against when the committee has to decide whether to invite a fifth or sixth Big 12 team or reward one of the "have-nots." Those losses tip the scales undeniably in the opposite direction for the 'Pokes.
If a sixth team does get in, I like Texas A&M. The Aggies have slipped off the radar the past few weeks after losses at Washington and New Mexico (by 3- no shame in that loss). They do already own wins over Clemson and Minnesota, two teams that could very likely find themselves in a similar spot come March; 18-19 wins, fifth or sixth place in a power league. Those are good chips in the Ag's favor. They get Texas only once this year and get to host that game in late February. A win over the Horns could punch their dance card.
Oklahoma stays in the "unknown" category, simply because it is still too early to completely write them off. Willie Warren has struggled and it appears as though Jeff Capel is struggling with what to do with the talented Soph. They got hammered on New Year's by Gonzaga in yet another no-show against a quality opponent. They got waxed by VCU, and have losses to UTEP, Houston and San Diego - each more difficult to explain in ascending order. The 1-point win over Northern Colorado and the squeaker with Utah don't inspire much confidence either.
So why are they still above the Maniac's cut line? They still have NBA-level talent; particularly in Warren. And because other than trips to Lawrence and Austin there isn't a game they can't win on that schedule. 10-6 in the Big 12 gets you dancing. It's possible for the Sooners. But they better get it together. And Soon...
Iowa State - Of all the teams near the bottom group, this one is the most disappointing. With Craig Brackens surprising draft experts and deciding to come back to school, some optimism that the Cyclones could return to the tourney for the first time since Tim Floyd had Marcus Fizer and Jamaal Tinsley (and one of the Maniac's faves, Paul Shirley) in uniform began to arise. Three losses in a row dampened things a bid, but when the smoke clears losing to Northwestern (by 2), Northern Iowa (by 3) and at Cal aren't terrible losses. The schedule gives them an opportunity for redemption with a trip to Cameron Indoor and the Dukies...but it is just as likely a stern national showing of how NIT-at-best the 'Clones are in 2010. For the same reason as above with the Sooners, they stay above the cut-line, but they are a distant 10th in my estimation - a true long shot.
The BAD:
Colorado has always seemed a sleeping giant to me. Unfortunately no one woke them up again this year. Perhaps Chauncey Billups has a year of eligibility hiding somewhere... They showed a little fight early, hanging real tough with Gonzaga and Arizona over in Maui. Since then they have been blasted by 15 by Colorado State and by 25 at Tulsa. There is a good chance they are no better than the third or fourth best team in a basketball-light state (Northen Colorado and Denver).
Nebraska seems to pile 10 or 11 non-conference wins up every year. Just enough to keep them in that "if they win 4 of their last 5 they have a bubble shot" discussion every year. We;re not falling for it. They have two solid wins; USC and Tulsa. As a matter of fact, glancing over their resume, I get the feeling if they could just squeeze eight wins out in conference play....
Ah, forget it.
Final Score:
Texas and Kansas are #1 seeds in March. I just can't see anyone closing the gap enough to push either of them out. Kansas State feels like a Top 4 seed as well, and definitely no worse than a solid tourney team. This is the only conference in the country with two legit national champion contenders (Yes, the Big Ten and Big East could. But No one in the stratosphere of KU and UT though.)
It will be a rocky ride on the bubble all year in the middle of the pack. Like many conferences of this high caliber, parity will smack around the pack. That said, I like Baylor, Missouri and A&M to dance. Oklahoma is still a quality sleeper to watch and Oklahoma State and Texas Tech should get in if the can stay north of .500. In doing that, they'd knock off one of the other's above.
The Big 12 should factor no worse than the 4th best RPI conference overall, and most likely Texas and Kansas should push them to #2 or #3. That should be good enough for 6 bids in March, though seven isn't out of the question.
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A Little Thanksgiving Spice
The Old Spice Classic kicks off tomorrow at noon in Orlando, Florida in what has become one of the premier "pre-season" tourneys. This year's field may not have the top flight headliner, but it does have a field full of teams with March aspirations.
The top of the class is probably Michigan which returns do-everything star Manny Harris and three starters to John Beilein's squad. Harris and Ohio State's Evan Turner will be one of the best head to head match-ups come March, and isn't nearly as one-sided as some might make it out to be. Harris is that good. Behind him, Michigan has to be the favorite.
Manny Harris is a close second-best player in the Big Ten
But the road won't be easy, starting in the Noon tip-off against always pesky Creighton. The Jays opened with a loss to fellow mid-major darling Dayton but have aspirations of begining a new NCAA Tourney streak this year. An "upset" win over Michigan would be a nice feather in their cap.
The second game features the undervalued Xavier Musketeers against the rebuilding Marquette Warriors. Gone is the backcourt trio that led Marquette for a Top Ten ranking before Dominc James' injury. Lazarus Haywood returns to try and steady the ship. X has been good in the early going, with Jordan Crawford fitting in nicely to an experienced Musketeers squad that will look to him to carry much of the scoring load from the perimeter. They will get their first true test in the 2PM tip.
The evening features a matchup of two squads trying to rebound from dissapointment in 2008-2009 when Alabama meets Baylor. Both figure to be in the lower half of their respective leagues. This game might give a nice glimpse into the relative depths of the SEC and Big 12 respectively. Neither have played a top-tier team yet in 09 (though that didn't stop the Tide from dropping a game to Cornell...)
The nightcap features a Florida State squad fresh off a humiliating shellacking by in-state rival Florida, against the Iona Gaels. A week ago, Florida State figured to be the favorite (or co-favorite along with Michigan). Now? The 'Noles might be grateful for a relatively soft draw.
Maniac's Picks: Michigan, Xavier, Florida State and Baylor. Give me the Noles and the Muskies in what should have been a rematch of last year's NCAA Rd 2 (except for Bo Ryan's Badgers! Intentionally forced reference for the benefit of my Nole-fan readers!)
Yes. I honestly like the Musketeers cutting down the nets in Orlando, but admit Michigan has the most overall talent in the field.
The top of the class is probably Michigan which returns do-everything star Manny Harris and three starters to John Beilein's squad. Harris and Ohio State's Evan Turner will be one of the best head to head match-ups come March, and isn't nearly as one-sided as some might make it out to be. Harris is that good. Behind him, Michigan has to be the favorite.
Manny Harris is a close second-best player in the Big TenBut the road won't be easy, starting in the Noon tip-off against always pesky Creighton. The Jays opened with a loss to fellow mid-major darling Dayton but have aspirations of begining a new NCAA Tourney streak this year. An "upset" win over Michigan would be a nice feather in their cap.
The second game features the undervalued Xavier Musketeers against the rebuilding Marquette Warriors. Gone is the backcourt trio that led Marquette for a Top Ten ranking before Dominc James' injury. Lazarus Haywood returns to try and steady the ship. X has been good in the early going, with Jordan Crawford fitting in nicely to an experienced Musketeers squad that will look to him to carry much of the scoring load from the perimeter. They will get their first true test in the 2PM tip.
The evening features a matchup of two squads trying to rebound from dissapointment in 2008-2009 when Alabama meets Baylor. Both figure to be in the lower half of their respective leagues. This game might give a nice glimpse into the relative depths of the SEC and Big 12 respectively. Neither have played a top-tier team yet in 09 (though that didn't stop the Tide from dropping a game to Cornell...)
The nightcap features a Florida State squad fresh off a humiliating shellacking by in-state rival Florida, against the Iona Gaels. A week ago, Florida State figured to be the favorite (or co-favorite along with Michigan). Now? The 'Noles might be grateful for a relatively soft draw.
Maniac's Picks: Michigan, Xavier, Florida State and Baylor. Give me the Noles and the Muskies in what should have been a rematch of last year's NCAA Rd 2 (except for Bo Ryan's Badgers! Intentionally forced reference for the benefit of my Nole-fan readers!)
Yes. I honestly like the Musketeers cutting down the nets in Orlando, but admit Michigan has the most overall talent in the field.
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Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com
Getting Cocky: South Carolina Gets Big Win at Baylor
Just when you thought the SEC was down and dead, another huge non-conference win at the Big 12's expense puts them right back in the mix as a conference to be reckoned with.
South Carolina was led by All-American candidate Devan Downey's 23 points and 8 assists to lead a surprisingly balanced Gamecock attack. The win moves USC to 9-2.
UP NEXT:
South Carolina gets a break with Wofford and a beatable Auburn team before entering a brutal tell-tale three game stretch of: @LSU, @Tennessee, and home for Florida. We should know a lot about the 'Cocks by the middle of January
Baylor drops to 12-2, and has a gentle Big 12 beginning, hosting Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and traveling to Texas A&M and Kansas St. They should be able to rebound nicely before tackling the conference heavyweights.
South Carolina was led by All-American candidate Devan Downey's 23 points and 8 assists to lead a surprisingly balanced Gamecock attack. The win moves USC to 9-2.
UP NEXT:
South Carolina gets a break with Wofford and a beatable Auburn team before entering a brutal tell-tale three game stretch of: @LSU, @Tennessee, and home for Florida. We should know a lot about the 'Cocks by the middle of January
Baylor drops to 12-2, and has a gentle Big 12 beginning, hosting Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and traveling to Texas A&M and Kansas St. They should be able to rebound nicely before tackling the conference heavyweights.
Monday Hoops Guide
Most people love the Christmas break, but it is pure agony for us hardcore college hoops fans. Thankfully things get heated up again tonight with a bevy of good (and two great) games.
MONDAY GUIDE:
6PM Murray St. @ Niagara - Not exactly a game to TiVo, but it does provide an interesting look at two teams who could be auditioning for the Cinderella role in a few months.
7PM Georgetown @ UConn - It doesn't get much better than this; two premier programs square off in a nice conference opening measuring stick game. How will freshman Greg Monroe handle Hasheem Thabeet inside? The answer to that will go a long way to determining if Georgetown can keep this a contest.
7PM Temple @ Villanova - Temple seems to go 17-12 or worse every year, but still lurks as a giant killer prone to springing a few upsets annualy. Throw in the Big 5 Palestra magic, and you have an interesting test for Jay Wright's Wildcats heading into conference play.
8PM Portland St. @ Baylor - The Vikings have slain one Goliath this year in Gonzaga. They get another chance tonight at Baylor. I think Scott Drew will mention something about that Zag game sometime before tipoff, don't you?
9PM Davidson @ Charleston - I really love this game, one of the hidden gems of the season. Read more here.
9PM Cincinnati @ Memphis - A rivaly harkening back to days of the old Metro conference. Cincinnati can ill-aford many losses before tackling the Big East guantlet if they harbor any aspirations of returning to the big dance. Memphis has used a strong non-conference resume to boost up their mediocre C-USA schedule for the past few years. So far this year, all they have to boast are losses to Gerogetown, Syracuse and Xavier. The Tigers really need a win to stay in the mix for a Top 4 seed in March.
Maniacs Monday Picks:
UConn -7
Temple +8.5
Cincinnati + 13 (LOCK!)
Buffalo +1.5 (Colorado)
Baylor -12
.
MONDAY GUIDE:
6PM Murray St. @ Niagara - Not exactly a game to TiVo, but it does provide an interesting look at two teams who could be auditioning for the Cinderella role in a few months.7PM Georgetown @ UConn - It doesn't get much better than this; two premier programs square off in a nice conference opening measuring stick game. How will freshman Greg Monroe handle Hasheem Thabeet inside? The answer to that will go a long way to determining if Georgetown can keep this a contest.
7PM Temple @ Villanova - Temple seems to go 17-12 or worse every year, but still lurks as a giant killer prone to springing a few upsets annualy. Throw in the Big 5 Palestra magic, and you have an interesting test for Jay Wright's Wildcats heading into conference play.
8PM Portland St. @ Baylor - The Vikings have slain one Goliath this year in Gonzaga. They get another chance tonight at Baylor. I think Scott Drew will mention something about that Zag game sometime before tipoff, don't you?
9PM Davidson @ Charleston - I really love this game, one of the hidden gems of the season. Read more here.
9PM Cincinnati @ Memphis - A rivaly harkening back to days of the old Metro conference. Cincinnati can ill-aford many losses before tackling the Big East guantlet if they harbor any aspirations of returning to the big dance. Memphis has used a strong non-conference resume to boost up their mediocre C-USA schedule for the past few years. So far this year, all they have to boast are losses to Gerogetown, Syracuse and Xavier. The Tigers really need a win to stay in the mix for a Top 4 seed in March.
Maniacs Monday Picks:
UConn -7
Temple +8.5
Cincinnati + 13 (LOCK!)
Buffalo +1.5 (Colorado)
Baylor -12
.
Conference Christmas Report Card: Big 12
Conference Recap: Big 12
The Big 12 has always had a Playboy physique: immense on top, and trim at the bottom.
This year doesn't seem to be a notable exception, but the meat in the middle is a bit of a surprise. Baylor has been steady as the conference's 3rd best team, suffering their only loss of the season to unbeaten Wake Forest. Texas A&M and Missouri have been pleasant early season surprises, while Kansas has performed admirably reloading after the mass departures from their championship squad.
When you think about it, not a BAD build at all...
The strength of this conference is definitely at the top. Oklahoma looks like one of a small handful of challengers to North Carolina and Blake Griffin has to be the leader for the Naismith Award at the turn. Texas has played a daunting schedule, but has performed well in MOST tests, and looks to be no worse than a second weekend NCAA Tourney team.
The bottom of the conference is not outstanding, but is not terrible either. Oklahoma St and Kansas St. will win some ballgames and look like possible NIT teams. Texas Tech has been disappointing, but even Nebraska, Iowa State and Colorado are not as bad as some leagues bottoms (Big East, Pac-10).
All in all, it's been a pretty good start to the season for the Big 12. Missouri's latest loss to Illinois notwithstanding they still have two elite teams, three more likely tourney teams, and two or three who could make it interesting. That makes the Big 12 one of the deepest conferences in the country.
"Pre" Season Grade: A- (click for game details)
Tourney Outlook:
Locks: Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor
Likely: Kansas, Texas A&M
Hopeful: Missouri
Longshot: Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, Nebraska
Nope: Kansas St, Colorado, Iowa St.
The Big 12 has always had a Playboy physique: immense on top, and trim at the bottom.
This year doesn't seem to be a notable exception, but the meat in the middle is a bit of a surprise. Baylor has been steady as the conference's 3rd best team, suffering their only loss of the season to unbeaten Wake Forest. Texas A&M and Missouri have been pleasant early season surprises, while Kansas has performed admirably reloading after the mass departures from their championship squad.
When you think about it, not a BAD build at all...The strength of this conference is definitely at the top. Oklahoma looks like one of a small handful of challengers to North Carolina and Blake Griffin has to be the leader for the Naismith Award at the turn. Texas has played a daunting schedule, but has performed well in MOST tests, and looks to be no worse than a second weekend NCAA Tourney team.
The bottom of the conference is not outstanding, but is not terrible either. Oklahoma St and Kansas St. will win some ballgames and look like possible NIT teams. Texas Tech has been disappointing, but even Nebraska, Iowa State and Colorado are not as bad as some leagues bottoms (Big East, Pac-10).
All in all, it's been a pretty good start to the season for the Big 12. Missouri's latest loss to Illinois notwithstanding they still have two elite teams, three more likely tourney teams, and two or three who could make it interesting. That makes the Big 12 one of the deepest conferences in the country.
"Pre" Season Grade: A- (click for game details)Tourney Outlook:
Locks: Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor
Likely: Kansas, Texas A&M
Hopeful: Missouri
Longshot: Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, Nebraska
Nope: Kansas St, Colorado, Iowa St.
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