Bracketeering - November Pre-Thanksgiving Turkey Shoot

There is something exhilarating about the Thanksgiving edition of Bracketeering each season.  The season is young enough that imense room for speculation still prevails, however there have been just enough small slivers of hoops action against semi-reasonable competition that complete disdain for the pollsters is already allowable.

It is with that smug spirit of contrarianism that we shall embark on the season innagural edition of Bracketeering!  As always, comments, feedback and profanity-laced anatomically-challenging emails and posts are thoroughly enjoyed and welcomed...

FINAL FOUR:

#1 Kentucky - I'll spare you the email; YES, I was the guy who joked "time to start writing the 'Final Four Banners taken DOWN from the Rafters' story" within minutes of Coach Cal's hiring.  Well, so far he has proven me half correct; there is a Final Four banner in the rafters.  And in my opinion, it's likely another will be joining it this season.  As far as the "taking it down" part, there is no evidence to suggest Calipari has made even the slightest errant step in Lexington.  However, for those of you who were history majors in college...you know what they say about its repetition...

Anyhow - This is easily my favorite Kentucky team since Tubby Smith was in the Bluegrass.  The Gilespie Era was an abject trainwreck.  The John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins team was too erratic and immature (and frankly, just not a likeable mesh of players), and last year's Final Four team was nearly as ugly, and not nearly a Final Four caliber team most of the season aside from the final two weekends.  This team is different than the past two editions of isolation and dribble drive, force up shots and buy time until the NBA Draft rolls around Kentucky basketball.   Marquis Teague is a similarly top-ranked prep point guard, but he is more in the distributor mode than either John Wall or Brandin Knight.  Terrance Jones is a year more seasoned and provides a legitimate first-team All-American swing/power forward with some ferocity, and Doron Lamb is the team's most reliable shooter and scorer from the perimter.

The real difference maker, and where I give them the slight edge over North Carolina is the addition of freshman Anthony Davis.  Watching his fourteen point, seven block domination over Kansas, I couldn't help but make the extrapolation that he is going to give Zeller and Henson absolute fits.  Terrance Jones should be a decent defensive match on Barnes, and from 1 to 8, Kentucky actually has a slight athleticism advantage of the uber-athletic Heels.

The nice thing is, this will get settled on the court in less than ten days. Until then, give me the Cats in the top slot.

#2 North Carolina - They are everyone's #1 for a reason.  They are absolutely loaded.  Barnes returned after a slow-starting, but quietly spectacular freshman season and should vie with Jared Sullinger for national player of the year honors in 2012.  The inside duo of Henson and Zeller are as talented as any frontcourt in the nation (though I am not sold on their interior defensive presence; yes Henson is a good shot blocker, but is he really going to body a Jared Sullinger out of the lane??), and Marshall Strickland is a fantastic distributor who looks up the floor better than any collegiate guard in the country.

When looking at a team than is going to struggle to find minutes for McDonald's All-American freshman James McAdoo because of the dearth of talent, identifying flaws is obviously a nit-picking venture.  However, nitpick I shall... this is not a perfect team in the mold of the two national championship teams in the Roy Williams era.  Zeller has developed some pretty moves, but is nowhere near the reliable 'dump it in the post every time down the floor' scoring option that Tyler Hansbrough was.  I'd grade him significantly behind Sean May in that regard as well.  This team is also devoid of a defensive wing stopper in the mold of a Danny Green or Raymond Felton.  And the outside shooting of the 2011-2012 Heels??  Let's just say they'd be wise to keep it up tempo and run run run.

This sounds like we're down on the Heels.  Not true.  In fact, to have this team anywhere outside of the Top Three is being contrarian for the sake of being obnoxious.  And at MarchManiacs, we are obnoxious for completely independent reasons.  UNC is fantastically talented, and I'm not sure either national championship team had a player with the beautiful slashing and mid-range game of Harrison Barnes.  He has the ability to elevate this team from "fantastic" to "transcendent." 

However, as stated above, until next weekend I'm cautiously parking the Heels just behind Coach Cal's Big Blue.

#3 Duke - Every flaw you could find about North Carolina?  Flip them when discussing the Blue Devils.  Duke has plenty of size and toughness inside.  But no one even close to the feathery touch and deft post moves of Tyler Zeller.  North Carolina has the consummate distributor and playmaker at point guard.  Duke, in very un-Duke like fashion, has a makeshift point guard committee, with the primary ballhandling responsibilities falling to sharp shooter Seth Curry.

And perimeter shooting?  Not an issue for the Dukies.  Although Austin Rivers's shot selection still leaves a bit to be desired (more on that later), shooting from behind the arc is something this team will do as well as any team in the nation.  Curry and Andre' Dawkins can flat-out knock it down.  Rivers is potentially deadly albeit streaky, and no 6'11' player in the country shoots as well from distance as Duke's Brian Kelly.

In fact, Kelly is the primary reason I elevated the Blue Devils to #3.  Through three weeks, no player in the country has shown more improvement from last season than Kelly.  His ability to put the ball on the floor as well as spot up from three-point range makes him an incredibly versatile and difficult to defend weapon.  His shooting ability prevents teams from shading help to the corners to help on perimeter shooters, and balances the relatively limited ability of the Plumlee boys from anywhere beyond three feet of the rim (especially the foul line... bletch!).  This also allows for Mason and Miles to do what they do best; rebound.  Having a 6'11'' guy pulling a big away from the rim creates fantastic put-back jam opportunities, which they have each capitalized on several times this season in big moments.

The danger for Duke lies in the early tendency of freshman Austin Rivers to take about four or five ridiculous shots per game.  So far, Coach K has seemed surprisingly patient with the frosh's shot selection, and his teammates have been typically plucky Duke supporters, clapping and cheering their teammate on.  But at some point, in a big moment or as a tight tough game starts to slip away, you have to wonder if some of the frustration and tension might surface.  So far, so good... but when it does become a story in a month or two, remember you read it at MarchManiacs.com back before Thanksgiving...

#4 Ohio State -  I'll be the first to caution giddy Buckeye fans not to overlook the impact of the loss of defensive wizard David Lighty and his tremendous contribution in the "little things" department.  However when likely Top 3 NBA Draft pick (if not #1 overall) Jared Sullinger surprises everyone and decides to return for his sophomore season, a little exuberance is to be tolerated.

And even though the school's alltime leader in 3-pointers made, Jon Diebler and sixth man tough-guy Dallas Lauderdale have also graduated, don't weep to openly for Coach Matta.  The cupboard is far from bare in Columbus.  Look for senior William Buford to fill in some of the scoring gaps (he was the team's unheralded second-leading scorer in 2011) and for Aaron Craft to continue to blossom in his sophomore season, evolving nicely into a gritty floor leader in the Chris Kramer+Jordan Taylor mold (to blend two Big Ten guards into a nice visual package for you).

6'7'' swingman Deshaun Thomas is a burgeoning star waiting to explode on to the scene for the Buckeyes, and while he won't make anyone forget David Lighty, he will certainly make the loss much less painful.

I have the Buckeyes in my Final Four, but a clear peg behind North Carolina and Kentucky.  However, come March, I'm not sure they won't be that team that everyone takes a liking to as the #1 seed to pick for people shying away from the wire-to-wire darlings in Chapel Hill and Lexington.

Elite Eight:

We will dig in to each of these ballclubs in further detail in the not-so-distant future, but for brevity sake (I think this column is pushing 2000 words...) let's list 'em out quickly...

#5 - UConn - This year's team might actually be better than last year's surprising national champs.  Jeremy Lamb is a legitimate National POY candidate.

#6 - Missouri - Their breakneck tempo and outstanding backcourt of Denmon and English could be the class of the Big 12.

#7 - Wisconsin - Granted, they haven't been sternly tested yet, but holding teams to under 38 ppg is an impressive defensive effort, even for a Bo Ryan coached squad.  Add in the best point guard (when factoring in both ends of the court) in the country in Jordan Taylor, and you have a pretty good recipe for success.

#8 - Syracuse - Some questions remain on the perimeter, but Boeheim has yet another talented squad in Syracuse.  Hopefully the allegations swirling around their longtime assistant coach prove meritless... for the sake of not just the alleged victims but college basketball fans everywhere.

Sweet and Lurking:

#9 - Louisville - Can Kyle Couric lead this team to the top of the Big East?  The Card fan favorite has been excellent in the early season, but Pitino and crew will need some solid play from their big guys if they want to hang with UConn and Syracuse in the Big East.

#10 - Baylor - The most talented team in the Big 12, but I don't recall seeing them in the NCAA tourney last year, do you??

#11 - Alabama - Maybe Purdue is just worse than I thought, but watching Anthony Grant's team get after the Boilermakers defensively was impressive.  I'd be stunned if this team is left out of the Big Dance again in 2012.

#12 - Florida - It's hard to hold a loss to Ohio State against them too badly.  I am still not in love with their smallish backcourt, but the emergence of freshman Brad Beal will infuse a much-needed big time scorer jolt into that lineup.

#13 - Xavier - Tu Holloway is a true big time lead guard, cut from the mold of a Kemba Walker.  Coach Mack hopes he can generate a similar result.  Xavier plays a spectacular out-of-conference schedule that includes Gonzaga, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Memphis and Cincinnati (not to mention Long Beach State, who could prove a dangerous trap game), so we will get to find out pretty quickly just how legit the beast of the A-10 is as a Final Four contender in 2012.

#14 - Gonzaga - Elias Harris and Robert Sacre give the Zags one of the better veteran tandems in the country.  Is 6'1'' freshman Kevin Pangos going to be able to continue to light it up from the outside to the tune of 18+ a night?

#15 - Vanderbilt - Yes, I know.  They lost at home to Cleveland State.  It was a bad loss.  However, this is still one of the better teams in the country, especially once they get Festus Azili back from his six-game NCAA-imposed suspension.  John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor combine for one of the best backcourt running mates in the country.  The Commodores early season play doesn't earn them a Top 16 slot; even that 2-point win last night over Oregon State was sketchy... but I am still going to stick with Vandy and hope to be rewarded come February and March...

#16 - St. Louis - I always like to take a flyer on someone at the sixteenth slot, so let's really go for it to kick off the season.  The Billikens beat the nonsense out of both Southern Illinois and Washington already this season, and have a legit chance to win their Thanksgiving tournament that tips off tomorrow against Boston College.  Xavier is the class of the A10, and Temple has the bigger name, but don't be surprised is Saint Louis is ranked by season's end and a lock for an NCAA Tourney appearance.

The Fab Forty Five - Feb 10th, 2011

The Maniac has a slightly different way of looking at the NCAA Tournament field than a lot of the other Bracketologists, Bubble-ologyists, Bracket Analysts, etc.  Rather than looking at the bubble teams independantly and comparing them historically to previous year's fields to make projections, we focus more on how many slots are available and who exactly is jockeying for them.

Here is a quick rundown of the math: In 2011 the field is expanding to 68 teams.  There are 31 conferences with automatic bids (30 conference tournaments and the Ivy, who instead sends their regular season champ).  Simple math leaves 37 at-large bids up for grabs.  Normal bracket math focuses on those 37 slots, and plays some guesswork with who might "steal" a bid from one of the lesser conferences by winning the conference tournament and taking a slot from some otherwise deserving team.

Let's all assume together that the six BCS league tournaments will likely be won by a team that was going to the tournament anyhow.  I know on rare occassions someone sneaks up out of nowhere (most recently in the SEC with Georgia in 08 and Mississippi State in 09), but it happens very infrequently.  Let's also go on a limb and assume that the A-10 and Mountain West will also be won by a team already on safe ground.

Adding those eight conference bids back into the pool gives us 45 slots available.  Focusing on being inside that 45 will nearly automatically guarantee entree' into the Dance.  It is possible that a few additional bids will creep into the mix; for example if Utah State (who is IN) wins the WAC Tournament for example.  But anything inside of the Fab Fo' Five and a team should be safe.

Here's The Maniac's Fab Fo' Five as of February 10th:

LOCKS (21):  These are teams that are IN barring an absolutely ludicrous late season collapse. For that reason, we are being very judicious with inclusion; for example, teams like Washington, St. Mary's and Vanderbilt shouldn't have to sweat on Selection Sunday, but still have a little work to do before sliding into the absolute LOCK category.

Duke, North Carolina, Pitt, Georgetown, Villanova, Notre Dame, Louisville, UConn, Syracuse, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Florida, Kentucky, Arizona, Xavier, San Diego St, BYU.

This leaves 24 bids remaining in the at-large pile.  Our second group is for teams knocking on the door that still have some work to do before exhaling.

GOOD SHAPE (12): These teams would be IN today, but still need to avoid bad losses down the stretch to feel safe.  The final three teams (St. Mary's, Wichita State and Utah State could help out fellow bubble-sitters by winning their conference tourneys and adding a bid back into the pile)

Temple, West Virginia, Baylor, Illinois, Minnesota, UAB, George Mason, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, St. Mary's, Wichita State, Utah State

BUBBLE (17):  We are now left with just twelve bids remaining and a lot of teams with a good case to be made.  Everyone on this list is one loss away from falling out, with plenty of teams waiting to replace them.  You'll notice 17 teams in this category; obviously five of them are on the outside looking in - those five I will purposely list last.

Virginia Tech, Florida State, Richmond, Marquette, St. John's, Memphis, Kansas State, UCLA, Texas A&M, VCU, UCLA, Georgia, Southern Miss, Missouri State, Butler, Cincinnati, Old Dominion

WAITING IN THE WINGS (11):  These are teams I have OUT as of today - but certainly can creep back in the mix with a strong finish and some wins over conference teams slotted ahead of them currently.

Maryland, Clemson, Boston College, Duquesne, Colorado, Michigan State, UTEP, Washington State, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State

BURIED, BUT NOT (OFFICIALLY) DEAD:  Here's some long, long shots that are going to need an unbelievable finish (like running the table) to jump back in the mix

Dayton, Nebraska, Michigan, Princeton (should win Ivy), Colorado State, Drexel, SMU, New Mexico, Alabama, South Carolina, Northwestern, SMU, Arkansas, Mississippi State

When RPI's Lie

It isn't the first, and it probably isn't the lastg column the Maniac will subject you decrying the many flaws of the RPI system - but let me quickly clarify.  RPI isn't a bad tool, it is just a little too flawed to be the end-all be-all instrument so many of the talking heads on TV make it out to be.

For one, it fails to measure any consideration of how well/poorly a team actually played in a particular win or loss.  For example, Penn State's road loss at Purdue by one point on a last second buzzer beater by likely first team All American JuJuan Johnson is worth as little to the Nittany Lions as is Iowa's 75-52 defeat.

However for all it's foibles, I haven't found (nor do I have any desire to create) a better, more consistent and effective tool for accounting for strength of schedule and opponent quality rather than merely just wins and losses.

Here are a couple teams that jump out to me as either too high or too low, according to the RPI poll on February 2nd.

The Highs:

#2 - BYU:  Look, I like, ne', love, Jimmer Fredette as much as everyone else.  But I find it nearly impossible to completely trust a poll that has BYU #2... or so I thought.  Upon further review the Cougars, at 21-2 overall, own impressive wins over Arizona, UCLA, St. Mary's, Creighton, UNLV and San Diego State.  That's actually a pretty impressive hall.  They are certainly worthy of Top Ten status, but any ranking higher than six or seven for the Cougs is still a little too high.

#14 - North Carolina:  I've been banging this drum for about two weeks now, but Carolina is actually good...a really close to being really good.  Their RPI reflects our instinct here as well; Carolina is a Top 4 seed if the season ended today.

#20 - St. John's:  Look, the Duke win might end up getting the Johnnie's to the Tourney.  But #20?!?  Are you serious?  They have eight losses and are tied for 11th place in their own conference.

And Lows:

#68 - Duquesne:  Sick of hearing about the Dukes yet??  In all seriousness, at 16-5, 8-0 in the seventh or eighth best conference in the country makes #68 offensively low.  Then factor in the four of the five losses are to Penn State, George Mason, West Virginia and Pitt, and it is really hard to see this team anywhere lower than mid-forties at worst.

#84 - Gonzaga:  Same exact logic as above; good team with excellent losses.  The Zags are still a strong at-large contender in my book, forget the RPI in the 80's - it's absurd.  Especially when you see teams like Kansas State and Michigan State fiftysomething spots ahead.

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Quick Rundown of a few of the Night's Biggest Wins

Bubble talk usually focuses more on the disappointing aspect rather than the optimistic; meaning it's usually only the "bubble" if a team has under achieved.  However, the bubble goes both ways, so here's a quick rundown of some teams that helped the NCAA chances with good wins this week.

Some of you have politely pointed out that the Maniac is a moron and that Southern Miss isn't any good and that Conference USA isn't getting multiple bids into the tourney.  Those of you (and you know who you are!) who have been so kind as to email your, um, "concerns" might be right on #1 and #3, but not the middle morsel of information.  Southern Miss is a good ballclub.  And tonight they earned what might turn out to be a season-saving win, knocking off UAB in Birmingham 75-71. 

The win moves Southern Miss to 17-5 (6-3) and a half-game ahead of UAB, Memphis and UTEP atop the conference standings.  If the NCAA had truly sold out for the monster payday and expanded the tourney to 96, no doubt all four of these teams would be dancing.  However, at the current 68 it is going to be a close call down the stretch for all four.  A win on the road over one of your prime competitors is enormous.

The Maniac continues to stand on an island regarding the Golden Eagles and their tourney merit.  Not one single major media outlet, ESPN, FOx Sports, CBS, Yahoo - have included them in a single mock bracket all season.  I'm sure I'll get a few wrong, but when they DO earn their at-large bid, feel free to Tweet of my incomparable hoops genius...

In the Maniac's bracket, I have both Southern Miss AND UAB in, with Memphis being in the first four out.  UTEP probably has the longest odds, despite having an identical record to Memphis and UAB, because of their lack of any significant non-conference wins.

In the Atlantic 10 the Maniac's second pet team for 2011, the Duquesne Dukes kept doing what they have all season -  absolutely obliterate conference opponents.  This time the victim was George Washington by an 84-59 tally.  With Xavier's surprising loss at Charlotte, Duquesne moves into sole possession of the conference lead at a perfect 8-0.

In the ACC, two of the teams we thought would be good, then looked bad early so we wrote off as lousy, are actually pretty good again.  Make sense?

Virginia Tech continued their profile rehab, winning 77-69 at NC State.  The win lifted the Hokies to 15-6 (5-3).  Their non-conference losses to Kansas State, UNLV and Purdue do little to damage their overall resume.  If they can scrape back to 11-5 or even 10-6, they should have little to be nervous about on Selection Sunday.

Meanwhile North Carolina handled their business last night on the road at Boston College, winning easily and very impressively, 106-74, to run their league record to a tidy 6-1.  That's good for a first place tie with the much heralded Dukies (Duke moved a half-game back in front with tonight's win over Maryland).

Harrison Barnes had a season-high 26 points and is showing glimpses of being the player everyone expected him to be instantly.  Instead, his matuaration process has taken some time to evolve; and is still evolving, but as his play continues to improve Carolina is growing into a multi-dimensional team with a ton of length and talent. 

In our latest Bracketeering we have the Tarheels projecting to the #4 line - not too far off of where long-forgotten lofty expectations were prior to the season...


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Intersting Perspective on Duke's Guards

This article put statistical value behind an observation I've long held in a way that both validates my instinct; and puts to shame my researching capabilities (or desires... this is thorough).

Anyhow - no way to isolate just Duke's portion, so linking the whole article.  Duke is #3 in the poll, if you're in a hurry...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/01/13/power.rankings/index.html

enjoy.

Bracketeering - Dec 5th, 2010, The Late Thanksgiving Edition

Welcome fellow maniacs to the season's belated Thanksgiving edition of Bracketeering.  We've recently grown a little bit in readers, so for those of you newly aquainted to the rankings, we do things a little differently here at MarchManiacs.com.  The rankings are an amalgamation of both objective and subjective qualities; wins matter, but WHO you have won and lost to and the MANNER in which the games unfolded matter most. 

That said, 10-0 without a high quality win doesn't automatically get ya' in.  More than likely, it keeps you out.  But that brings me to the final component of the Bracketeering rankings; what do you look like as a team and what is the potential for improvement.  There's a reason we tend to be a little ahead when lifting a team up in the rankings (example, two years ago we had Louisville #3 when they were #14 in the AP Poll.  By March, they were the #1 overall seed in the tournament. 

There are a bunch of other examples as well, Syracuse last year as well as Ohio State)  The reason it tends to work that way?  We watch a lot of games.  You will rarely find an opinion on a team we haven't watched play multiple times.

Where does the Maniac find the time?  Easy.  Mom and Dad have great satellite TV in their basement, which I live in....

On to Bracketeering!!

FINAL FOUR:

1. Duke - Slotting Duke at the top isn't really a daring move, but having them anywhere else would be a foolish one.  The defending champs are not only poised to repeat, they are actually considerably better than last year.  John Scheyer was fantastic last season but even as terrific as he was, it is impossible not deny Kyrie Irving is a significant upgrade at the point.  Ditto for Mason Plumlee.  Zoubek was a rebounding beast in March, but Plumlee gives the Devils a true post scoring presence and runs the break like an NBA lottery pick.  Even if he gets in foul trouble, they don't lose much bringing his brother in off the bench.  Watch how many times they lob it into the Plummle boy's in a given game.  Their abilities inside are clearly a focal point of Duke's offensive attack; something they have lacked for several seasons.


The starting five has upgraded, Nolan Smith returned, and Duke has even improved their depth.  Duke can legitimately play nine guys, which anyone who has watched Coach K over the years knows is more than enough to cut down the nets.  Coach K's previous four champs all relied primarily on seven players total.

Oh, and for good measure, Final Four MOP Kyle Singler decicded to spurn a likely first round NBA draft selection to return for his senior season.


Take all the reasons above, and factor in a questionable ACC and it is not too early to start "can Duke run the table" talk.

2. Ohio State - We had them #2 pre-season and the AP and ESPN polls have caught up.  The Buckeyes have the balance, athleticism and defensive abilities to cut down the nets.  Freshman Jared Sullinger is an absolute stud.  Think Blake Griffin.  The skill sets are very, very similar.  Blake Griffin was the #1 overall pick in the draft three years ago, and Sullinger is so good the comparison isn't an insult to either one of them.


What really puts Ohio State clearly ahead of some of the teams right below them is the senior leadership and all-around game of David Lighty.  Lighty was a freshman on the 2007 National Runner-Up team.  His defense is every bit as stellar as it was then, but his offensive game has really developed.  I liken this Ohio State team a lot to last year's Syracuse club.  Lighty plays the Wes Johnson role; a better defender and not quite as good a scorer (though a better shooter).


John Diebler is a stone cold assassin from the arc, a la Andy Routins and Lauderdale gives them the Rick Jackson/Onawaku-like banger inside.

Their win two weeks ago over Florida was as complete a ballgame as I have seen a team play this season and gave a good glimpse as to how good this year's Buckeyes can be.  Oddly enough, even after losing our National POY Evan Turner Ohio State is even better in 2010.

3. Kansas - This ranking is based more on gut feel and intuition than any imperical evidence.  The NCAA ended their glacial-paced stalemate over freshman Josh Selby's eligibility and the point guard will be ready to join the team officially on December 18th.  Considering most scouts had him rated on par with Duke's Kyrie Irving, the addition of Selby undoubtably makes the Jayhakws a more viable contender and eases some of the pain of losing Sherron Collins.


Kansas has yet to endure a true test, though their is nothing to be ashamed of beating Arizona and UCLA back-to-back.  However, the one-point margin over a really pedestrian UCLA team yesterday is cause for some pause.  I'm banking that the edition of Selby will elevate the Jayhawks to true national contender status, and is why they get the nod here over Kansas State, Michigan State and several worthy Big East squads.

Tuesday night's game against Memphis (7PM ESPN) is one I'm really looking forward to get a better read on the Jayhawks, though they will still be a work in progress until Selby suits up.

4. Georgetown - I'm going out on a little bit of a limb here, with Syracuse, Villanova and especially Pitt being rated much higher in the AP polls, however from the early eye test, Georgetown is the team to beat in the Big East.  With wins over Old Dominion, NC State and Missouri they have already passed some quality early tests.  The OT win over Missouri at absolute breakneck speed was as impressive as it was surprising.  Anyone think they'd ever see a John Thompson III coached team put up 111 points?!?  I sure didn't.




Austin Freeman is my early nod for BEast POY, and Jason Clark and Chris Wright join the party to give the Hoyas quite possibly the best backcourt in the nation.  Thursday's trip to Temple gives the Hoyas another chance to notch a good resume win before a trip to Memphis and begining the gauntlet of BEast play.

ELITE EIGHT:
5. Pitt - I've been tough on Pitt over the years, and the arguement can be made perhaps I am being a little tough on them here as well.  In my defense, 90% of the shots I have taken had Pitt have been proven absolutely correct.



So here's my early read on Pitt:  They are a tough, very tough, defensive ballclub that makes it difficult to initiate offense and can wear out the full 35 second clock.  They are a very good rebounding team and pound the glass on both ends.  Their difficiencies show up only on the offensive end. 


Ashton Gibbs can score and is a good creator on offense.  Wannamaker is a steady point guard, though not noted as a big offensive threat.  In order for Pitt to be a Final Four team, they are going to need big production from McGhee, Brown and Taylor. 


It's another fantastic start for the Panthers, racing out to a 9-0 record.  Their 2-point win over Texas was a fantastic game, and the win over Maryland could look better by the end of the year if the Terps surprise in the ACC.  Other than that, the resume is really blank.  They sqeaked out a win over Rhode Island in their opener and really haven't taken on a reasonable opponent aside from that.



This Saturday they tackle Tennessee in a game that will be a nice litmus test for both teams.  After that we get a pre-New Year's treat when they open BEast play Dec 27th at Connecticut.

6. Kansas State - There's just something that isn't quite clicking with the year's Wildcat squad.  Despite entering the season with their highest preseason ranking in school history, #3, the 'Cats seem to be adjusting a little slowly to life without Denis Clemente.  Jacob Pullen recieved most of the headlines last season, but it is difficult to understate the impact each man had in making the other better.  The two were able to share ballhandling and scoring duties simultaneously, something Pullen simply won't be able to do with Rodney McGruder and Martavious Irving. 



Curtis Kelley gives them tremendous athleticism and defense on the interior, as well as a dramatically improved post game.  Continuing to develop their inside game will make Pullen even more effective in the backcourt.


The disappointing Duke performance aside, and it is hard to find much fault with K-State's early returns.  They've notched double-digit wins at Gonzaga and over Virginia Tech, as well as quality wins over Washington State and James Madison. 



Their preconference schedule includes a trip to face Florida (played in Miami) and a Christmas Eve visit from UNLV, two more excellent challenges for Frank Martin's squad before entering Big 12 play.  They certainly will enter as the favorite, along with rival Kansas, however don't be surprised if they are joined by Missouri, Baylor and Texas, three squads with the potential to win the very strong Big 12.

7. Michigan State - Yes, the Spartans already have two losses but in Bracketeering a five point road loss in Cameron Indoor is no cause for punishement.  Neither is a five point loss on a neutral floor to UConn.  Huskies fans will likely take exception to being listed below Sparty; but consider two important criteria.  One, what is the ceiling for this ballclub?  Two, who have they played and how have they played them.
 


For Tom Izzo, the team on the floor in November is nearly always nowhere close to as good as the team will be in March.  If any coach has been better at "coaching up" a squad over the last 15 years, I don't know who it is.  The good news for Izzo?  This Spartan team doesn't have that far to go to be a legit Final Four contender.  With Kalin Lucas and Durell Summers and Draymond Green back in the fold, along with solid role players in Delvon Roe and Corey Lucious, plus some valuable size in Garrick Sherman and the talent and experience is clearly there.

Balancing out close losses to UConn and Duke are impressive victories over South Carolina and Washington.  Never one to duck a daunting schedule, Izzo's club takes on Syracuse this Tuesday and hosts Texas on the 22nd before starting Big Ten play on New Year's Eve with Minnesota.

8. UConn - Hands down, Kemba Walker is the undisputed National POY if the season ended today.  Of course it doesn't, and I have a feeling he is going to start facing some unique defensive looks if someone doesn't emerge quickly to help the 6'0'', 180 pound lead guard.  Outside of Walker, no one one the team averages more than 12 ppg.  Only big man Alex Orihaki is in double figures.

The Huskies followed up their impressive win over Michigan State by absolutely boat-racing Kentucky the next day in Hawaii.  Since returning to the mainland they've (hopefully) gotten their letdown stinkbomb out of their system, struggling with New Hampshire before taking the lead late, 62-55. 

Things remain calm for UConn until Dec 27th when we will get a true feel for this team over a daunting two week stretch that includes three road tests; @ Pitt, @ Notre Dame and @ Texas.  Win two of those three, and they will certainly vault over Michigan State.  Until then, call me just a touch skeptical the Kemba Walker show can continue to knock off top competition.    


Sweet and lurking: The next tier




 From here on in, things get pretty tricky.  If we know one thing about this early season it is that parity is reigning supreme.  A healthy arguement could be made for about forty teams, and in truth, very few have satisfactorily serparated themselves thus far.  This is where the Maniac eye comes in to play.  You will find a few teams that have earned their slot on the floor who didn't make the cut (Notre Dame) as well as a few who haven't earned it who snag a slot (Kentucky).  Here's our take on the Sweet Sixteen tier.

9. Illinois - Demetri McCammey and company showed they belong among the nation's elite, as well as the Big Ten's which will prove every bit as competitive with their OT loss to Texas in Madison Square Garden.  This weekend the Illini easily handled a good Gonzaga squad.  Their wins over Maryland and North Carolina are two valuable chips in their favor, as well as a nice frame of reference for how much stronger the Big Ten is versus the ACC in 2010-2011.  The renewal of their border rivalry with Missouri on Dec 22nd will be an absolute dandy.

10. UNLV - Not many teams have done more in the preconference season than the Runnin' Rebs.  They have already knocked off Wisconsin as well as notching double digit wins over Murray State, Virginia Tech and Illinois State.  The Mountain West is one of the best conferences in the nation this year, not just one of the best non-BCS leagues.  From top to bottom this conference is better than the Pac-10 and SEC and certainly wouldn't be embarrassed by the ACC either. Winning that league this year could be plenty to earn a #2 seed if UNLV or San Diego State continue their stellar early season non-conference play.


11. Missouri -  The Tiger's OT loss to Georgetown is every bit as good as a win in our book.  Missouri is still playing at a breakneck tempo that is going to give teams fits all season.  This weeks matchup with Vanderbilt is going to be an awesome experiement in tempo control.  If the Tigers can speed up the 'Dores, they should roll.  If Vandy can keep the game in the 60's or lower, it is going to be fascinating to see if Mizzou can still score and defend efficiently.  Here's betting they can, and will.

12. Purdue - The loss of senior Robbie Hummel to his second ACL injury in as many years is a horrible blow to an otherwise Top 5 team.  However, be cautious in writing the Boilermakers off just yet.  E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson both chose to forgo the NBA draft and return to West Lafayette for one more season.  Purdue can compete with any team in the nation, but they are going to have to getter better play out of the trio of John Hart, Kelsey Barlow and Lewis Jackson in order to do so.  

The eleven point road loss to Richmond wasn't a good effort, but Richmond is a legit tourney team and will contend to win the A-10.  Purdue showed some real guts in their OT win over Virginia Tech (who is already sowing the seeds of yet another angst-filler bubble straddling season) and they follwed it up Saturday with a pasting of Alabama.  The Big Ten is brutal this year, easily the best and most complete league in the country, so to expect the Boilermakers to post the same record this season as last would be asking a bit much.  Don't infer that to mean this isn't a very, very good team.



Purdue will continue to have a pretty light load leading into conference play, thus a low RPI as the calendar turns to 2011.  However, they will have ample opportunity to earn huge resume wins nearly every week once Big Ten play commences.

13. Kentucky -  The Wildcats certainly have some work to do to even begin to approach their considerable talent.  That was extremely evident in this weekend's two point loss to struggling North Carolina (who much like the Wildcats will be considerably better in six to eight weeks.)  However they showed flashes of their potential brilliance in their routine win over Washington in Maui.  The 84-67 drubbing at the hands of UConn raised some concerns as the seemed unable to corral Kemba Walker despite the tremedous athleticism the Wildcats posses in their backcourt.  That tells me this team is still a bit immature and needs to strengthen their resolve on the defensive end of the court.

Brandon Knight has been impressive early, and looks to be the real deal though he will get very little media attention with Kyrie Irving and Josh Selby stealing many of the headlines.  Kentucky will struggle all year with stretches of offensive ineptitude unless they can find someone other than Darius Miller who can consistently knock down open jump shots.  Until then, expect the Cats to see a lot of zones and collapsing defenses on stud freshman Terrance Jones.

Wednesday's visit from Notre Dame will be an interesting test for both teams, and New Year's Day's trip to Louisville's new KFC Center is about as fun as college hoops gets.
14. Washington - Washington took a pair of defeats in Maui, a well played loss to Kentucky followed by another close defeat to Michigan State.  They do own a 106-63 blasting of Virginia (who beat Minnesota last week) and an equally thorough dismantling of Texas Tech  (Pat Knight might want to start updating the resume...).

Monday's tussle with Portland should be an interesting under-the-radar game, and this weekend's trip to Texas A&M will be an interesting ball game as well.  Once Pac-10 play begins, it appears Washington should be able to do some damage, as no one other than Arizona has shown much so far this season.  Isiah Thomas has shown some flashes of what was expected of him prior to last year's freshman campaign, averaging 15 points and a plus 2:1 assist/turnover ratio.

15. San Diego State - I really like this Aztec team and flirted with slotting them as high as ninth.  Khawi Leonard is a bigtime player, but he is by no means a one-man show.  Steve Fisher's squad has already gone into the Kennel and notched a comfortable win over the Zags and follwed it up with a 14 point win over the other WCC favorite, St. Mary's.  Tonight they downed Wichita State by 17, continuing their stellar preconference campaign.

The schedule is pretty barren over the next three weeks with a Cal team that has at times looked completely inept offensively the only real obstacle to starting the year 16-0.  Following that, things begin to get a lot more competitive with home and home's with UNLV, BYU, New Mexico, Air Force and Utah in MWC play. 

16. Tennessee - Slotting the Vols at #16 puts them considerably lower than the polls currently have them, and truthfully the Vols have earned a better ranking with their on-court play.  If their off-court play, specifically the issues with Bruce Pearl's suspension that have me still unsold on whether or not Tennessee is a serious contender to earn a top-four seed come March.

Wins over Villanova and VCU are impressive.  This weekend's trip to Pittsburgh is one you are going to want to DVR.  Both teams employ a similar athletic, defense-first style of play and it will be a treat to see who plays it better.

The SEC East is as good as any division in college basketball while the SEC West is simply dreadful.  Unfortunatly for the Vols, residing in the East gives them eight games against Kentucky, Florida, Vandy and Georgia respectively.  Add in Jan 5th's annual Memphis tilt and the Vols are going to get plenty of chances to earn some more big wins.

Bracket Busts: Five early season disappointments

Butler - What a difference a year makes.  Six months ago the Bulldogs were a mere few inches from capturing a fairytale-like National Championship.  This year they have already been blownout by Louisville and Duke in addition to a very disappointing loss to Evansville.  With games with Xavier, Stanford and Utah still looming Butler better learn how to play without Gordon Hayward quickly or else they may find themselves needing to win the Horizon's automatic bid in order to return to the Dance.






Cal - No one was expecting Mike Montgomery's troops to be a Final Four team this year, but they certainly were expected to earn a tourney invite.  The Bears have some major work to do in order to make that expectation a reality.  The low point came in the Old Spice Classic where they scored FIVE first half points en route to a humbling loss to Notre Dame.  They were also humbled in a 68-46 loss to Boston College (who has already dropped a game to Yale).

Perhaps no team better emphasises the tremendous balance and inconsistency across the national landscape than Cal.  Despite those two terribly played losses they do own impressive wins; a 25-point pasting of New Mexico and a 57-50 win over Temple.  Tonight's three point win over Iowa State isn't a huge deal, but they did show signs of coming out of their offensive coma and will get a huge opportunity to soften damage of the two losses Wednesday night when they host San Diego State.

Gonzaga - The Zags were underrated so long that they are now flirting with entering the territory of badly overrated.  Their is nothing embarrassing about losses to San Diego State, Illinois and Kansas State.  However at some point you have to beat some quality teams if you have intentions of  being perceived as quality yourself.  In accordance with their always daunting non-conference scheduling Gonzaga gets a few more cracks at it with games against Xavier, Washington State, Notre Dame, Baylor and Memphis.  Three losses in that bunch might put them in recently-unfamiliar territory; needing to win the WCC to earn entry to the tourney.

The Missouri Valley - For the past decade there has been good reason for the big boys to fear a visit from a member of the Valley.  Wichita State, Creighton and Northern Iowa have all had their fair share of giant-slaying glory including some memorable tourney runs.  With the way this early season has played out with every team dropping at least two games in addition to notching very few marquee wins, it is shaping up to be another one-bid season for the MVC.

Colorado - There was some growing sentiment before the season that standout sophomore Alex Burks and the Buffs could be a good sleeper team in the Big 12.  At 4-3 with losses to Georgia, San Fransisco and a sixteen point schelacking by Harvard, it seems sleeper might have been better termed sleeping.

Half Court Heaves:  Teams Worth Keeping an Eye On:

Cleveland State (10-0, but only quality opponent they face all year is South Florida.  Still they might be able to make things interesting for Butler in the Horizon)

Cincinnati (8-0) - Don't look now, but there is no reason the Bearcats shouldn't be 16-0 entering Big East play.

UCF (8-0) - The Knights opened some eyes with their win over Florida this week.  The Knights still have contests with Miami (FL) and UMass before entering play in the balanced Conference USA

Possible Tourney Teams as of Today:

Richmond, Temple, Dayton, Vanderbilt, Murray State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida, Marquette, Texas, Louisville, Maryland, UAB, Memphis, So. Miss, VCU, Old Dominion, George Mason, Drexel, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Miami (FL), Xavier, Northwestern, Kent State, BYU, New Mexico, Arizona, Washington State, Charleston, IPFW,

The Mighty Mastadons have only 2 losses, both close games with Xavier & Cincinnati

Bracketeering - Feb 7th 2010 - The Field of 65 Forecast Edition

To call this weekend in college hoops a tumultuous one would be a slight understatement.  A dozen ranked teams lost this weekend, many of them to unranked foes.  Teams we thought could contend for number one seeds showed some vulnerability; Villanova gave up 103 points in their loss to Georgetown, Michigan State lost Kalin Lucas to Wisconsin, and followed it up by losing to Illinois, and Texas continues their absolute free-fall, getting blasted by seriously flawed Oklahoma.

It leaves quite a mess for this week's Bracketeering, and rather than the brackets (which I was told were tough to read), we will spell this one out by seed line, with logic loops to follow each line.

Enjoy The Maniac's look into the crystal ball of March - and feel free to make your case for any omissions.

#1 Seeds:  Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Purdue

Syracuse has been #1 on our big board for weeks, and see no reason to slide them until someone beats them.  Kansas has the easier road to the finish, having already won at Kansas State and getting a wounded Texas tomorrow night, but Syracuse did more out of league and plays a slightly higher-rated schedule in the Big East (though the Big 12 probably is deeper percentage of quality team-wise).  Kentucky seems pretty solid as a number one.

The fourth #1 was a tough one.  It could be one of the three Big East giants waiting in the wings, but I have a feeling they are going to slug it out a bit and beat each other out of the top slot.  I went with Purdue.  Aside from last month's three game slide, they have been flawless.  They seem to have found a rotation and are getting some bench punch from John Hart and Kelsey Barlow.  Kalin Lucas's ankle injury opens the door for Purdue to take the Big Ten and earn a #1 seed in the process.

#2 Seeds:  Duke, West Virginia, Villanova, Michigan State

Duke can still earn a #1 if they can distance the rest of the ACC pack and win the conference tourney.  I think they'll take at least one more loss and ease in as a comfy #2.  WVU and 'Nova can both easily slide up as well.  They have the non-conference scalps that paired with winning the Big East crown would make them automatic one seeds.  Michigan State is an interesting case.  They will likely lose their Big Ten lead is Lucas is out several weeks as anticipated.  However, they were 9-0 (really 9-1, Wisconsin had them beat either way) until he was hurt.  The committee will grad them accordingly and look at the overall body of work.  I think the Spartans stay as the final #2.

#3 Seeds:  Kansas State, Georgetown, Ohio State, Texas

Both Kansas State and Georgetown could easily have been twos.  The Hoyas are an interesting case; they hammered Duke and Villanova, yet in between lost a home game to South Florida.  It is that inconsistency that will keep them off the top two seed lines, but will also make them the 3 seed your whole pool LOVES.  Ohio State is sneaky.  They could stay hot and win the Big Ten.  If they do, their loss total (even with Evan Turner sidelined for three of them) keeps them off the top line.  The best they can do is a #2, I think they land as a really dangerous three seed.

Finally there is Texas.  They went from one seed to, if the tourney started today, four or five seed in the bat of an eye.  I think they'll stop their free fall (and like them to sack up and nap KU tomorrow night) and round out the most dangerous three line in recent tourney memory.  Honestly, is there any reason any of these four couldn't just as reasonably cut the nets down as the eight teams seeded above them??

#4 Seeds:  Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Butler

Gonzaga's loss to San Fran keeps them off the three line, their awesome strength of schedule and strong RPI keeps them at the four if they can avoid any other sleepwalkers.  If the tourney was held in the Kohl Center, I'd make the Badgers the favorite.  It isn't, so for now, they'll be the four seed that creates matchup nightmares for coaches.

I like Vandy's remaining schedule and the road wins in league to keep them ahead of Tennessee, Florida and Ole Miss on the big board.  Lastly, people forgot about Butler but it appears they aren't going to lose again this season as they are 13-0 in the Horizon and already tackled some of their "toughest" foes.  The Bulldogs were competitive in every game they played in their daunting pre-conference slate and will be a tough out if they get to the Sweet 16.  Their discipline and interior size could be a tough draw for a team like Kentucky.

#5 Seeds:  New Mexico, Pitt, Temple, Maryland

The Terps seem to be for real, and Grevies Vasquez is moving up my national POY list.  They are 6-2 in the balanced and tough ACC and appear poised to settle into the second slot in league play.  Pitt and Temple both raced out to great starts in league play, but have taken a few losses lately.  New Mexico's pounding of BYU, and stronger RPI moves them ahead of the Cougs on the Maniac's board.

#6 Seeds:  Tennessee, No. Iowa, Baylor, Georgia Tech

Tennessee has come back to Earth a little bit, but that win over Kansas is a huge chip when it comes seeding time.  I might have Baylor and No. Iowa a little high, but I really like both teams to finish strong.  Ditto for Georgia Tech, who IF they can ever put it all together has Sweet 16-level talent.

#7 Seeds:  Cal, BYU, Rhode Island, Texas A&M

Speaking of "if they ever put it together", how about Cal? They still have one of the better backcourts in the country, and have shown flashes of quality but have yet to pull away from the throng of mediocrity in the Pac 10.  I'll try one more time to restore some faith in the Bears and have them temporarilty over-seeded as a #7.  BYU's weak non-conference doesn't allow for many losses like the one they took this weekend in conference play.  Rhode Island has the strongest RPI of the pack of teams lumped between two and six in the A-10.  Their frenetic style will be an eye-opener for some unsuspecting 2-seed in the tourney.

#8 Seeds:  UTEP, UNLV, Xavier, Ole Miss

UTEP is coming on strong and is my pick to win C-USA.  The win over Tulsa really moves them up.  Likewise for UNLV's win over San Diego State.  Xavier has great quality close losses and a fantasic RPI, though the 90-65 beatdown they took Saturday in Dayton has to at least slide them back to bubble-aware footing.  Lastly, I like Ole Miss to finally play to their potential and win the muddled SEC West.  Their home game against Mississippi State could decide who goes to the tourney.

#9 Seeds:  Richmond, Cornell, St Mary's, Missouri

Richmond has by far the most impressive non-conference win tallies of the A-10 bunch, hence they get the nod here over Dayton and Charlotte.  It is going to be a fight to the finish in that league.  A lot of people are projecting six bids, but I'm a realist - only four; maybe five are getting in.  While chaos abounds, Cornell fans have to be smiling.  Long gone is their chances for big wins, however they steadily creep up the board as seemingly everyone around them falters.  Their "almost win" at Kansas could wind up being the most valuable loss in terms of seeding. 

#10 Seeds:  Louisville, UAB, Clemson, Dayton

I'm picking Lousiville to emerge from the six through twelve clump in the Big East battling for two or three slots.  The Cards have done less out of league than teams like UConn, South Florida and Seton Hall, but I think they are also more talented than those three and will finish with ten or eleven conference wins.  In the BEast, that punches your dance card.

I'm not sure what to make of Clemson.  If the tourney were today, they are out, behind the likes of Virginia Tech, Florida State and possibly even UVA.  However, I like the Tigers down the stretch to edge ahead and make the field.  Same for Dayton.  That Xavier win was a huge one.  If they can avoid any "bad losses" I think the Flyers will get in.  I also like UAB.  They have some great wins out of league and are 8-2 in the underrated C-USA.  That said, if they slip up Memphis or Tulsa could snatch that spot from them

#11 Seeds:  Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Florida, Old Dominion

Quick caveat - from here on in, every team is on a thin margin for error.  A few upsets in leagues like the Horizon and WCC could screw things up.  Siena could creep in (possibly even a 27-3 Murray State if they lose their league tourney) so no one on this list is safe.

That said, I like Oklahoma State despite their three game slide.  The would have the best player in the tourney wear road jerseys on the openeing day if they get in.  James Anderson is legit.  I'm giving VA Tech the slot here over Florida State and Virginia.  Just a gut feeling they'll earn it.

It kills me to put Florida in.  I really don't think they are any good and that NC State win is such a fluke it bugs me to put that in their "good win" column.  However, at 17-6 in the SEC, it seems likely they finish over .500 in league, get 20 wins and can boast wins over Florida State and Michigan State out of league.  That'll get them in.

Yes, I have Northwestern IN at 5-6 in league play and Illinois OUT at 8-3.  Just watch the next two weeks unfold - then email me your apology.

#12 Seeds:  Siena, Wichita State, Arinzona State, Marquette

The same logic that gets Northwestern in is how I have Marquette here.  I think they are better than Notre Dame, UConn and Seton Hall.  I'm not sure they are better than South Florida, but do have an easier closing schedule.  Wichita State deserve to be in, and so does Old Dominion.  We shall see if the committee rewards the mid-major or greedily grabs from the pool of BCS-mediocrity.

Arizona State is here are the Pac-10 Tourney representative.  No sense projecting Cal, only to have a bid "stolen" later.  Given the parity it is quite likely one of the eight teams (Arizona, Arizona State, Washington, UCLA, Washington State) other than Cal wins the tourney.  SO - this is their slot.  "Other Eight"  is intentional, yes I can count.  Yes, screw USC.

#13 Seeds:  Murray State, Northeastern, Utah State, Coastal Carolina

Northeastern could just as easily be replaced by VCU, William & Mary, or George Mason if one of them wins the CAA.  Regardless I think this league gets a team in addition to Old Dominion (even if ODU wins the conference tourney)  This slot is for team #2.  Utah State moves in this week over LA Tech in the WAC

 #14 Seeds: Lafayette, Charleston, IUPUI, Northern Colorado

#15 Seeds:  Pacific, Denver, Akron, Morgan State

#16 Seeds:  Robert Morris, Vermont, Belmont, Texas A&M CC, Texas So.

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The Maniac's First Bracket - Jan 26th

Rather than Bracketeering this week, settle in for the first glimpse at The Maniac's Bracket.

The Maniac had a fun day today after having an MRI on his brain, which, ironically many of you have long suggested necessary.  While all is well, and my health is super-duper OK, the picks of late might have been a red flag for concern (and a thorough brain X-Ray..)  However, this bracket is a good first attempt to sort out the Madness impending.

A couple of notes: first, it is a projection.  For example, I realize Northwestern would NOT be in today.  I also realize that not every small conference winner is currently in first place in their conference.  In the Summit, I like IUPUI over Oakland and in the Southern I tabbed Charleston over Western Carolina.  Those subtle tweaks have little to do with the overall bracket and seeding.

The biggest difference between us and Bracketology is the predictive element of the bracket.  I looked at current records, but also opportunities for RPI's to rise and fall, likely losses looming ahead, and teams poised to rattle off a few W's in a row, and then slotted teams accordingly.  It is easy to see a strong finish for Northwestern coming, due to the uneven nature of the schedule; hence a #10 in my first projection.  (Though something tells me NW fans aren't that concerned about seeding....)

As always, it is sure to spark debate, but that is what makes College Hoops so fantastic.

Enjoy!  And feel free to write with gripes and comments.

LEFT SIDE

1	Syracuse		Michigan St
16	Rob Mor/TX So.		Maine
8	New Mexico		Xavier
9	Oklahoma St		Cincinnati
4	Temple		Tennessee
13	Cornell		Murray St.
5	Clemson		Kansas State
12	St. Mary's		Siena
6	BYU		UAB
11	Florida		Wichita St.
3	Gonzaga		Purdue
14	No. Colorado		Lafayette
7	Butler		Cal
10	Old Dominion		UNLV
15	Morgan State		Denver
2	Texas		Villanova

RIGHT SIDE:

Kansas		Kentucky
Texas A&M CC		Campbell
Maryland		Northern Iowa
Baylor		Memphis
Vanderbilt		Ohio State
Coastal Carolina		Louisiana Tech
Wisconsin		Pitt
Rhode Island		Charlotte
Mississippi St		Ole Miss
Wake Forest		Missouri
Georgetown		Georgia Tech
Charleston		IUPUI
Uconn		North Carolina
Florida State		Northwestern
Akron		Pacific
Duke		West Virginia

COMMENTS ON JAN 26th BRACKET:

Big Leaps & Top Dogs:  

Vanderbilt is much higher than they would be if the season ended today.  However, I have a feeling they split with Kentucky and end up second in the SEC East.  Their current record is 16-3 and they have already won all three of their road games in the SEC, including at rival Tennessee.  They are in excellent shape to finish on the 3 or 4 line.

Georgia Tech:  I know, they are not even close to a three seed...yet.  I like Tech as the #2 team in a good and balanced ACC.  Right now they might be hard to separate from Maryland, Wake and Clemson but give it a few more weeks and I think the Rambling Wreck will float toward the top of the league.

Michigan State is quietly amassing one of the best tourney resumes in the nation.  They make the turn in the Big Ten undefeated, and seem likely to win the league, with three game leads over Wisconsin, Purdue and Ohio State.  Their out-of-conference losses are all quality, and their RPI will continue to climb as Big Ten play provides very few gimmes.  They seem as well positioned from a remaining-schedule standpoint as any team aiming for a #1 seed.

Syracuse is my #1 overall team.  I've had them #1 for a week now, and see no reason to drop them off the top line, even if they sustain a few conference losses.  Their head-to-head with Villanova might prove a decisive contest, however.

I gave Kansas and Kentucky the nod for the final two slots, though I expect both to lose at least two more games.  Texas could vault over Kansas by winning their matchup in two weeks, and winning the Big 12 Tourney.  Kentucky's path seems clear in conference, but if they slip more than two or three times, expect a second BEast or Big 12 team to capture the fourth #1 seed.

UAB as a #6, Temple as a #4 and Georgetown at a #3 are all high for now, as might be Purdue (#3).  Those slots represent season projection finish rather than current status. 

Surprises?

North Carolina is going to make the tournament.  They are.  If they go 7-4 down the stretch (very possible) and win a game in the ACC Tourney they would finish at 21-12.  They'd own non-conference wins over Michigan State and Ohio State, and their losses would be to Texas, Syracuse and Kentucky.  It is easy to kick Roy and the Heels while they are down, but despite some stumbles they are likely a tourney team, and a 6 to 10 seed to boot.  I have them as a #7, based on the above record projection.  They are still three or four bad losses away from talking NIT...

UAB, Butler, and BYU:  Expect three teams with the top records in the country to still find themselves outside the Top 4 seed line.  BYU blew a golden opportunity to vault into the upper echelon losing at New Mexico this week.  The Mountain West is solid, but not solid enough to earn a top 4 seed without a near-flawless record.  Butler will not face another team inside the RPI Top 100 the rest of the season.  While that gets them to the Dance comfortably, it is hard to see them moving up a seed line, even if teams above them falter a little bit.  UAB is the most interesting case.  The have a few quality wins (Tulsa, Butler, Cincinnati), and are amassing a gaudy record in the solid C-USA.  However, if the committee looks at the strength of their play in many of the wins over poor opponents, their seed will tumble...Fortunatly for the Blazers, the RPI is rarely that sophisticated.

Memphis:  The Tigers have completely vanished from the collective basketball world's conscious, and I have yet to see a mock bracket that included the Tigers.  Consider this: the Tigers have home-and-homes with Tulsa and UAB remaining.  They also host Gonzaga next week (HUGE opportunity to claim a bid).  If they go just 3-2 in those games (and I think they will) and win the other very winnable games remaining (also think they will) they will be sitting at 24-7, with three of their losses coming to Kansas, Syracuse and Tennessee (and also some combination of the three teams mentioned prior).  Other than a 1-pointer to UMass you can't find a bad loss.  That smells like a tourney team to me.

Wichita State:  My fondness for mid-majors might be showing, but I really think the Shockers will get an at-large spot if they need it (should Northern Iowa win the MVC Tourney).  The catch?  If someone other than N. Iowa wins the tourney.  I can't see the committee taking three from the Valley.

Florida:  Talk about living dangerous, if Chandler Parsons' two buzzer beaters do not fall, the Gators are sitting 13-7, (3-3) and NIT-bound.  Instead, they are 15-5 and in prime position to return to the Dance for the first time since cutting down the nets in 2007.

Omissions?

Louisville:  Some may give the Cards the nod over Cincy, particularly after last weekend's win.  However, when it is all said and done the Cards pre-conference struggles will do them in.  In the middle of the muddled BEast I like UConn and Cincinnati to emerge as te conferences' sixth and seventh bids.

Tulsa:  I like the Golden Hurricane, but the further you dig into their resume you find it incredibly barren.  The gut-wrenching loss the other night to UAB might be a death sentence unless they can sweep Memphis.

Texas A&M:  Many might have them slotted ahead of Baylor and Missouri.  I just don't see it.  I also fanned on OK State in the preseason.  They appear to be the 3rd or 4th best team in the Big 12.  Back to A&M, they do have wins over Clemson and Minnesota from the preseaosn to buoy them up if they are close, I see them as one of the first few teams out, but again, could snatch the spot from Baylor or Mizzou.

Dayton:  Everyone has had the Flyers comfortably in all year, but it is time to recognize they just do not have the profile of a tourney team and cannot afford any more "bad losses" in conference play.  They have slid weel behind Temple and Xavier,which is OK.  What is not OK is slipping behind Rhode Island, Charlotte and Richmond, which they have.

Virginia & Virginia Tech:  The first?  Nice story, but no bid.  The second?  Same ole' story, and sorry Seth, no bid.

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A New Year of Bracketeering - Jan 8th, 2010

The calendar has turned and we bravely embark on a new decade of Bracketeering. First off - a big thanks to all our readers, you are growing in numbers and pretty soon the Maniac has a feeling that relatives will no longer control the majority of our audeince... goodtimes indeed.

For our neophytes, a quick synopsis of the methodology employed here: 1. We do not care about the AP and coaches poll, wins and losses do not move you up or down a prescribed number of slots. 2. We do our best to weigh both performance, but also a little predictive nature as well, meaning not just what you have done, but also waht our eyes tell us you can do. 3. You are welcome to piss, moan and complain about our rankings. We enjoy the emails, and have learned several new creatives profanities from you. So, Mazel Tov, and Happy New Year.

Enjoy the decade's first edition of Bracketeering.

FINAL FOUR:

1. Texas - I definitely flirted with dropping the Horns this week after a few somnambulistic performances against UT Corpus Christi and Arkansas. However, don't most good team go through a few little lulls here and there, especially in games against lesser competition? What I do know is that when the big boys came to play, the Horns beat 'em by double digits. They win a lot of games late, if for no other reason than they have tremendous depth. The general fan is more familiar with the names on Kansas and Kentucky's rosters, but the Horns are ten deep, athletic and balanced. For now - they keep our top slot once again.

2. Kansas - Some people will overreact to the close call at home against Cornell, but not us. The Red are good. Even better? The stern test of the Jayhawks before the rigors of confere4nce play commence. It has been a long time since they were tested. It is good to find out who your Alpha Dog is before everything is on the line in March. And if there was any doubt, there is no longer. It's Sherron Collins. His numbers aren't spectacular; and therein lies his greatest strength on my POY ballot. He is assimilating all the talent available with aplomb, and gives them everything you want from a PG who will be contending for a National Title. So, yeah, I've come around on Collins.

Oh, and the dismantling of a good Temple team on the road was as brilliant as a team has played this year. Not this team. Any team.

3. Purdue - I'm starting to really love this team. They share the ball better than any team in the nation, and remind me a lot of the 2006-2007 Gator squad. They have good players with clearly, and perfectly defined roles. They have NBA talent with Johnson, Hummel and E'Twan Moore. They have the best glue guy in country in Chris Kramer and have a functional bench. They are not more talented per se than our #4 team, but gut instict tells me they are a little better as a team.

This is a huge "show me" stretch coming up for the Boilers with a trip to the Kohl Center tomorrow (where the Badgers have already beaten Duke) and a visit from the once again Evan Turner-led Buckeyes on Tuesday. Win both? Final Four talk has to heat up beyond Boiling in West Lafayette.

4. Kentucky - Fourth? Last week I have them #2, they handle Louisville, I write a "Run the Table" column...and now drop them to fourth? It's not an indictment of the Cats, it's simply that Kansas and Purdue looked brilliant the past week, and the Cats are still a little more potential than polish. That said, with Wall and Cousins blossoming more every week, it is getting harder and harder to see this team not making the short drive to Indy this April. Think there'd be a few Cat fans there??

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Duke - I'm getting less and less gun shy about my take on the Devils everytime I see them play...but still have an ounce of trepidation after the way they eveaporated in conference play and the tourney. That said, they are number 5...and then there is a drop. I'd be comfortable with them in the Final Five is such a thing existed.

Is there a classier act in college hoops than Coach K? The Dukies played a neutral court game with Iowa State in their annual tradition of bringing a game to a veteran player's hometown to play in front of friends and family. This time, John Scheyer did not disappoint, playing brilliantly and continuing his surprising First Team All-American campaign (and yes, he would have my vote once my ballot arrives....waiting...hmmm....)

6. Syracuse - Perhaps the loss to Pitt wasn't so bad in retrospect? We'll know more in a few weeks. What I do know, is that aside from that blip (where I thought Pitt just caught fire from behind the arc against the zone), they've looked like a Final Four caliber team. Great guard play, an All-American swingman in Wesley Johnson and some bangers underneath. Still love this team, and the bounce back win over Memphis shows me they are mentally tough as well.

7. West Virginia - Losing to Purdue is not a big deal. They should have lost to Marquette, but didn't. That said, this team has loads of talent and is dangerous. They are seventh, but I think I'd prefer to have them eighth, and leave the seventh slot open. There is that clear of a gap between the Top Six so far this season and the rest of the pack. Let's see if the 'Eers can maintain their focus and win two they should (Notre Dame and USF) before hosting Syracuse next weekend.

8.Kansas State - The Wildcats are just kind of hovering for the time being. I'm not sure they are the 8th best team in the country but am looking forward to getting a read on them this weekend with a trip to Missouri and a Tuesday visit from Texas A&M. Oh, and there's a little trip from Texas next weekend as well...

Sweet and lurking: The next tier

9. Michigan State - Is the run starting? It usually comes around February, until next thing you know, the Spartans are the dangerous #2 seed no one wants in their Region. The difference this year? They were as high as #2 in many national polls until a few early losses knocked them off the radar. The solid win over Wisconsin was impressive. Although there are no "gimmes" in the Big Ten (save for Iowa) their next seven games are all realistically "should wins" with the possible exception of a trip to Minnesota. Expect the Spartans to be right in the thivk of the Big Ten race when an exciting pair of games with Purdue rolls around this February.

10. Ole Miss - Maybe a little high considering the two losses are to upper echelon Big East teams, Villanova and West Virginia, which could suggest they are not a top tier team. Their inside play is uneven at best and not always pretty to watch. However, the old axiom that guard play wins in the tourney bodes well for Ole Miss who boasts the most underrated backcourt in the country.

11. Villanova - Wow, it seems like the #11 hole is where we weekly bury the upcoming prospects of some unsuspecting mid-major. Last edition we offered Temple up to the basketball Gods, only to have them sacrificed on the Jayhawks alter. This week, we flirted with a few of our mid-major darlings, but were compelled to concede the spot belongs to Villanova. I think it is becoming my silent accidental bias, but I am just never sold on these guys, despite the tourney success every year with Scottie Reynolds and Jay Wright. I am curious to see how they handle a visit from tough luck 1-2 Marquette and their trip to Louisville on Tuesday.

12. Connecticut - They have three losses by a combined total of fourteen points. The losses: Duke, Kentucky and at Cincinnati. They have a few holes, but much like Carolina I would be fearful of this team in March. They have one of the highest ceilings of any Big East team.

13. Northern Iowa - Yeah, I'm aware they are unranked in the polls. That's because most voters don't realize that good basketball happens outside the Big Six conferences, Memphis and Gonzaga. The Missouri Valley is consistently incredibly balanced and good. The Panthers are 4-0 in league play with wins over three of the top challengers (all by comfortable margins); Southern Illinois, Creighton and Missouri State. They have a tricky trip to Illinois State tomorrow (which I have probably effectively hexed them in...)

14. Wake Forest - I'm not sure why we all collectively forgot about the Deac's heading into this season. Sure, they miss early entries Johnson and Teague, but still have All-American candidate Al-Farouq Aminu dominating the paint. Admittedly this spot could have just as easily gone to Miami, Florida State, North Carolina (who I refuse to give up on!) and possibly even Virginia Tech. However, I give Wake the nod after completing a month without a loss that included wins over Gonzaga, NC State, Richmond and Xavier.

The Demon Deacons have a tough stretch with a trip to Miami tomorrow, a visit from Maryland Tuesday, then consecutive trips to Durham and Chapel Hill.

So in all likliehood, we have also put a well-timed hex on Wake! That said, go 2-2, and life is fine. Emerge 3-1 and this spot is more than well earned; it's too low.

15. Gonzaga - We are officially absolving them for the Duke disaster, figuring they are not the first or the last team to get humiliated on a bad day against the Dukies. They followed it up by winning at Oklahoma and at Illinois. Let's see how they handle the next, and most difficult remaining, stretch of the season: AT Portland tomorrow, AT St Mary's on Tuesday and AT San Diego next weekend. Win those three and they grab the improved WCC by the throat and can begin focusing on earning a Top 4 seed for March. Goodness knows they've played the schedule to merit it.

16. Rhode Island - Last week we honored USC with our final slot. They rewarded us by sacrificing their hoops program to save Pete Carrol's Golden Goose and banned themselves from post season play. So from here on in, they are similarly banned from Bracketeering. If you aren't going to the Big Dance, then just go away.

This edition's beneficiary? How about the Rams? They are 12-1, and are playing in the Nation's sixth best conference. Yes, the A-10 is clearly better than the Pac-10. Get over it BCS honks.

This Sunday's Temple v. Rhode Island game is one of the first real gems of many in A-10 conference play. After Temple, they get a few easier tests before back-to-back roadies at Xavier and Dayton to end Januaury. By then we'll have a pretty good read on how the A-10 is going to shake out. For now, we give the Rams the nod, but acknowledge Temple, Dayton and Xavier could all win the league, and expect some pressure from Richmond and maybe even Charlotte and George Washington.


Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Cal is a disaster, I've all but given up on the Bears. Oklahoma is approaching that status as well. Seton Hall seemed formidable but is 0-3 in BEast play and is certainly on the ropes. Xavier is disappointing at 9-5, but have taken very few bad losses. They are a 4 or 5 game win streak away from being relevant again. Butler is not in terrible shape, but needs to win their league more than they have in year's past after an unimpressive and uneven non-conference performance.

Is it fair to label Portland a disappointment? Consider that if not for an avalanche of early attention from beating UCLA (who we now know sucks out loud), and a injury/suspension ridden Minnesota team, would anyone have really cared much about the Pilots? Either way, after expectations heightened they responded with losses to Portland State, Idaho, Washington and Nevada. They are not an at-large team anymore, and will need to upset Gonzaga tomorrow to have any life left in their fading chances.

It isn't fair to label these two teams a bust, but I am sure Northwestern and Ohio State were hoping for better conference starts. The good news for Ohio State is Evan Turner's back in plenty of time to save the season. Unfortunately for NW, Kevin Coble is nowhere in sight and things are looking bleak for ending the most famous tourney drought in the country.

Half Court Heaves: Teams outside the common radar worth keeping an eye on
I usually just list the teams you may not have heard of, this week we include a few more teams from power conferences that have a good chance to contend for a bid. My near-locks are bolded. Teams that are strong enough that they could mess things up by losing the conference tourney and swiping a possible at-large are italicized.

Miami, Florida State, Pitt, Louisville, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Vermont, Richmond, Xavier, Dayton, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northern Colorado, Denver, Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Coastal Carliona, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, William & Mary, Old Dominion, UAB, Tulsa, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Harvard, Siena, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Murray State, Washington, Washington State, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Western Carolina, Texas San-Antonio, St. Mary's, Louisiana Tech (though very doubtful they snag an at-large judging by historical WAC results)

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