Duke looked fantastic over in Maui, capturing yet another title over on the Island, and looking sensational taking down three straight tough opponents in as many days. Then last night, Ohio State looked even more impressive, taking that same Duke team behind the woodshed and reminded everyone what Arizona looked like in last season's NCAA Tournament.
Impressive? Yes. Surprising that these teams have had some early season success? Certainly not.
Here's five teams who are making a name for themselves the hard way this November; unexpectedly.
#1 - Harvard Crimson - It appears Tommy Amaker has his
team poised to make a run to the NCAA Tournament this season, and might
not even need the Ivy League's automatic bid to do it. They are 6-0
with wins over UCF and Florida State over in the Bahamas last weekend,
and a win over Loyola Marymount, that is looking better and better as
the Lions stack up wins (over UCLA, then last night over #25 and Maniac
early-darling, St. Louis). A December tilt with UConn could be the only
stumbling block to entering Ivy play with a legit shot to run the
table...
#2 - Indiana Hoosiers - See the previous column, but Tom Crean's bunch appear to have IU back on the verge of re-joining national relevance. We still have yet to see them face a true Top 25 opponent, but at 7-0 after a 12-20 (3-15 in conference) season, it's one heck of a start.
#3 - Virginia Cavaliers - Another team that has yet to really extend themselves, but at 6-1 fresh off a pasting of a Michigan team that handled Memphis and pushed Duke, Cav fans have to like their chances of fighting for third in the middle of a muddled ACC.
#4 - San Diego State Aztecs - UNLV will garner all the MWC acclaim after knocking off North Carolina, but the most impressive team out West has been Steve Fischer's Aztecs. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year after Kawhi Leonard departed early for the NBA. At 7-1 (and leading Creighton in the second half at the time of writing) with wins over Long Beach State, Arizona and USC, as well as a respectable road loss at Baylor, this has the look of a sure-fire NCAA Tourney team.
#5 - Oregon State Beavers - The Beavers are 5-1, but only 1-1 in games against real opponents. However, their 100-95 OT win over Texas was impressive. Their most impressive outing was a 64-62 loss to a good Vanderbilt team. Craig Roberson's team is going to be a tough out in the Pac 12 and have the potential to sneak up as a bubble at-large team in March. They won't have much on the out of conference resume, but have 18 games in a balanced Pac 12 to fight to 9-9 or 10-8.
Showing posts with label San Diego St. Show all posts
Showing posts with label San Diego St. Show all posts
Showdown Saturday in College Hoops -
How big is today’s BYU at San Diego State game? CBS bought the rights to televise the game nationally. From it own affiliate, CBS College Sports!
Yes, Jimmer-Mania is about to take center stage nationally this afternoon at 2PM Eastern, 11AM local time, when two of the nation’s top teams battle for Mountain West supremacy. BYU took the first contest at home in one of the three or four best college basketball games of the season. Jimmer was simply stunning, netting an incredible 43 points an erupting onto the national stage and emerging as the leading candidate for National Player of the Year.
Oddly enough, it could be the same matchup today that derails that quest. San Diego State is good. REALLY good. Their 27-1 record gets dismissed because of their conference (which is absurd, I’d take the top half of the MWC over the top half of the Pac-10 and SEC), but the truth is San Diego State is built for the NCAA Tournament. They defend every bit as well as some of the more vaunted Big East and Big Ten stalwarts. They have a legit NBA player in their front court in Kwahi Leonard and an underrated elite point guard in DJ Gay.
I think it is going to be real tough for BYU to win today in San Diego. I like the Aztecs to run the table this season and capture a much-debated #1 in the NCAA Tournament.
Win or lose, just as CBS correctly gambled, I am going to be glued to the TV for what promises to be one of the most exciting and anticipated games of the 2010-2011 regular season.
Maniac's Pick: San Diego State -3.5
Southern Miss @ UCF Knights -1
UCF was the early season media darling as Marcus Jordan, heir of His Airness, and company took the nation by storm, racing out to a 14-0 start and a #21 national ranking. The ranking was the first in school history, and with a young ball club under first-year head coach Donnie Jones, the sky was the limit.
Then the Knights went Chicken Little; as in the sky started falling right on top of them. Whether it was nagging injuries, fatigue, overconfidence, or just simply the fact they played a little over their skis for the first month; things got bad quickly. The Knights lost eight consecutive games, all in Conference USA, and faded from NCAA Hopeful to ‘C-USA cellar dweller’ in the matter of three weeks.
The Knights have played much better of late, winning three of their past four games, including wins over Tulsa and a road win at then-conference leader UTEP.
Southern Miss comes into the game with a ton to play for. The Golden Eagles and Coach Eustachy haven’t gotten much run, but they are actually a legitimate NCAA Bubble team. They currently sit at 21-6 (9-4 in conference). With a strong finish they could slip in as a #11 or #12. Their pair of close, heart-breaking losses to Memphis really hurt them, but the rest of their losses aren’t doing them much good either; Ole Miss, Marshall, Colorado State and SMU. None of those teams are awful, and CSU is actually pretty good, but none of those losses qualify as “good.”
Southern Miss is is a talented team, and should be favored in today’s game. But, they aren’t. Hmmm….that makes this a pretty easy selection. Give me the Golden Eagles roughing up an overrated UCF squad in Orlando.
PICK: Southern Miss +1
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| Please, just one win...please. |
If it feels like we’ve been in this spot before with Seth Greenberg, it’s because we have. It’s becoming almost an annual rite of passage that a regular season game in March is vital for the Hokies bubble dreams.
If you’ve been following college hoops for a while, you know that those dreams have usually turned into nightmares.
Tonight’s game represents an enormous chance for the Hokies to finally get a quality night’s sleep on Selection Sunday. With a win tonight at home the Hokies Dance ticket is essentially punched. The crowd in Blacksburg will be a huge advantage for them as well, with ESPN Gameday and all the festivities than accompany it going on. However, this isn’t Duke’s first rodeo and certainly not a new experience facing a hostile crowd.
The correlation I like to use is this: Remember the Kansas @ Kansas State game two weeks ago? It was an “upset” but one that followed a predictable formula. Elite team travels to road team who view them as their chief rival. The home team has a less-than-great record due to some losses early, but has played very well the two weeks leading up to the game. The home team was highly ranked at the beginning of the season but has since been forgotten about. The “forgotten”, inspired, talented and desperate home team plays their best game of the season, pulls off the huge “upset.”
Fans storm the floor. Chaos ensues.
You know the recipe. That’s exactly what is cooking up in Blacksburg, the perfect storm brewing for a huge bowl of upset soup. The numbers defy it, but sometimes the human element outweighs the statistics. Gimme the Hokies in a valiant home last-stand not only covering, but handing the Dukies their third loss of the season.
PICK: Virginia Tech +4
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"Jimmer" is a Verb Meaning "To Score Relentlessly in Massive Quantities"
And then there was one.
Ohio State stands alone as the nation's only unbeaten team after Jimmer Fredette and the Jimmer Fredettes, er, BYU Cougars, handed San Diego State their first loss of the season 71-58.
Fredette all but solidified his First Team All-American status tonight and joined Kemba Walker and Jared Sullinger as the front runners for National POY, pouring in 43 points and absolutely dominating the Aztecs in arguably the best individual performance this season. As if his play on the floor wasn't enough, in a courtside interview after the game Fredette displayed the humility and team-first attitude that have endeared him to not just BYU fans, but fans all across the country. It is honestly impossible not to love this guy.
Watching the tape from tonight's game, the first comparisons of recent college players that come to mind are Steph Curry and JJ Reddick. They aren't perfect comparisons as there are subtle differences in their respective games. Curry, when facing superiorly athletic teams tended to force shots and struggle handling the ball against constant double teams. At times he scored at will, but in his junior year against teams like Duke and Purdue Curry clearly struggled without a reliable scoring option along side him to relieve pressure.
The main difference between Fredette and Reddick is the amount of time Fredette spends as BYU's primary ball handler. Reddick was superior using screens and getting quality shots with accuracy and an exceptionally quick release. Both players possess a keen ability to create their own shots by taking an aggressive dribble towards the basket and popping back to create the small window of space needed to get off a good look. However, in general Reddick was more of a shooter running off screens constantly, a la Reggie Miller or Ray Allen, where Jimmer is more prone to taking the dribble all the way to the bucket and using his body to shield off bigger defenders and absorbing the contact.
As far as Dave Rose and his BYU teammates are concerned; Jimmer is incomparable. San Diego State clearly had no answer for Fredette tonight as he pumped in a surprisingly NON season high 43 points on a blistering 14 of 24 shooting (that includes a perplexing missed goal-tending call as well).
If BYU and Fredette have aspirations of making it to the Final Four, they are going to face some teams with the quickness and length to make things much more difficult for Fredette. A team like Duke with Nolan Smith or Ohio State's David Lighty, or even Texas with a stable of long, athletic wing players could pose a whole different set of challenges.
Watching the game tonight, here is a quick Maniac scouting report of how to (attempt) to corral Jimmer:
1. No switching on screens. San Diego State did what is typically logical when defending a great scorer, and that is to frequently switch on ball screens. However, Fredette was smartly able to exploit this by taking advantage of the quickness mismatch when a taller defender switched onto him. Fredette is excellent at the "step-back" dribble to create just enough room for his lightning quick release to get a clean 3-point shot up. Add in the fact that his range is legitimately anywhere inside 28 to 30 feet, and this creates a problem.
What needs to be done is to hedge high on ball screens; push him laterally and turn him away from the basket and allow the primary defender time to retreat back to Fredette. No going under screens or switching or he will kill you.
2. Face guard him AFTER he passes. SDSU did a good job of forcing Fredette to pass many times. However, nearly every single time he passed the ball he was able to run off a quick down screen or rub his defender free and get the ball right back as soon as he wanted. After he passes it is imperitive to "jump" the cutter. Basically bump him off his route like an NFL defensive back and force him to hand fight and run around frantically to get the ball back.
This is very frustrating for scorers and can get him off his rythym - as well as cause some frustration with the difficulty to even get the ball back in his hands. He frequently begins the possession with the ball as he usually dribbles it up the court. That makes it difficult to keep him from touching the ball, however there are ample opportunities to prevent him from getting it back - SDSU did a poor job of this tonight.
3. Bring help to the on-ball defender "higher" on the court. This doesn't mean "switch", rather it means turn all screens into double teams. If I'm coaching against the Cougs, I'd gladly take my chances with someone, anyone else beating me. If his teammates can get 35-40 points by knocking down open shots that present themselves with the constant double teaming on Fredette, so be it.
Fredette has a tendency to leave his feet to pass, which is what led to many of BYU's turnovers tonight (the only real weakness I saw in his game). Constant double teaming 'higher' up on the court (i.e. - anywhere from 22 feet in, not just when he penetrates beneath the foul line extended) will force some turnovers and make it difficult for Fredette to create mid-range looks at the bucket.
Of course, all these things are easier said than done. Take nothing away from Fredette's effort tonight; it was simply spectacular. But don't be surprised if an athletic team from one of the BCS conferences makes the three above adjustments and knocks off the Cougars early than expected in the NCAA Tourney in a #7 over #2 or a #6 / #3 'upset'.
I don't generally do scouting report columns, I know it is tough reading for you non-dork fans - but for my hardcore readers, I wanted to give you what I saw from watching tonight's game. Any insights, opinions, etc. you gleamed from tonight's thriller are always welcome! Post below, or send comments to chrisscheeren@yahoo.com
.
Ohio State stands alone as the nation's only unbeaten team after Jimmer Fredette and the Jimmer Fredettes, er, BYU Cougars, handed San Diego State their first loss of the season 71-58.
Fredette all but solidified his First Team All-American status tonight and joined Kemba Walker and Jared Sullinger as the front runners for National POY, pouring in 43 points and absolutely dominating the Aztecs in arguably the best individual performance this season. As if his play on the floor wasn't enough, in a courtside interview after the game Fredette displayed the humility and team-first attitude that have endeared him to not just BYU fans, but fans all across the country. It is honestly impossible not to love this guy.
Watching the tape from tonight's game, the first comparisons of recent college players that come to mind are Steph Curry and JJ Reddick. They aren't perfect comparisons as there are subtle differences in their respective games. Curry, when facing superiorly athletic teams tended to force shots and struggle handling the ball against constant double teams. At times he scored at will, but in his junior year against teams like Duke and Purdue Curry clearly struggled without a reliable scoring option along side him to relieve pressure.
The main difference between Fredette and Reddick is the amount of time Fredette spends as BYU's primary ball handler. Reddick was superior using screens and getting quality shots with accuracy and an exceptionally quick release. Both players possess a keen ability to create their own shots by taking an aggressive dribble towards the basket and popping back to create the small window of space needed to get off a good look. However, in general Reddick was more of a shooter running off screens constantly, a la Reggie Miller or Ray Allen, where Jimmer is more prone to taking the dribble all the way to the bucket and using his body to shield off bigger defenders and absorbing the contact.
As far as Dave Rose and his BYU teammates are concerned; Jimmer is incomparable. San Diego State clearly had no answer for Fredette tonight as he pumped in a surprisingly NON season high 43 points on a blistering 14 of 24 shooting (that includes a perplexing missed goal-tending call as well).
If BYU and Fredette have aspirations of making it to the Final Four, they are going to face some teams with the quickness and length to make things much more difficult for Fredette. A team like Duke with Nolan Smith or Ohio State's David Lighty, or even Texas with a stable of long, athletic wing players could pose a whole different set of challenges.
 |
| It's going to take a concerted team effort to corral the nation's best scorer. |
1. No switching on screens. San Diego State did what is typically logical when defending a great scorer, and that is to frequently switch on ball screens. However, Fredette was smartly able to exploit this by taking advantage of the quickness mismatch when a taller defender switched onto him. Fredette is excellent at the "step-back" dribble to create just enough room for his lightning quick release to get a clean 3-point shot up. Add in the fact that his range is legitimately anywhere inside 28 to 30 feet, and this creates a problem.
What needs to be done is to hedge high on ball screens; push him laterally and turn him away from the basket and allow the primary defender time to retreat back to Fredette. No going under screens or switching or he will kill you.
2. Face guard him AFTER he passes. SDSU did a good job of forcing Fredette to pass many times. However, nearly every single time he passed the ball he was able to run off a quick down screen or rub his defender free and get the ball right back as soon as he wanted. After he passes it is imperitive to "jump" the cutter. Basically bump him off his route like an NFL defensive back and force him to hand fight and run around frantically to get the ball back.
This is very frustrating for scorers and can get him off his rythym - as well as cause some frustration with the difficulty to even get the ball back in his hands. He frequently begins the possession with the ball as he usually dribbles it up the court. That makes it difficult to keep him from touching the ball, however there are ample opportunities to prevent him from getting it back - SDSU did a poor job of this tonight.
3. Bring help to the on-ball defender "higher" on the court. This doesn't mean "switch", rather it means turn all screens into double teams. If I'm coaching against the Cougs, I'd gladly take my chances with someone, anyone else beating me. If his teammates can get 35-40 points by knocking down open shots that present themselves with the constant double teaming on Fredette, so be it.
Fredette has a tendency to leave his feet to pass, which is what led to many of BYU's turnovers tonight (the only real weakness I saw in his game). Constant double teaming 'higher' up on the court (i.e. - anywhere from 22 feet in, not just when he penetrates beneath the foul line extended) will force some turnovers and make it difficult for Fredette to create mid-range looks at the bucket.
Of course, all these things are easier said than done. Take nothing away from Fredette's effort tonight; it was simply spectacular. But don't be surprised if an athletic team from one of the BCS conferences makes the three above adjustments and knocks off the Cougars early than expected in the NCAA Tourney in a #7 over #2 or a #6 / #3 'upset'.
I don't generally do scouting report columns, I know it is tough reading for you non-dork fans - but for my hardcore readers, I wanted to give you what I saw from watching tonight's game. Any insights, opinions, etc. you gleamed from tonight's thriller are always welcome! Post below, or send comments to chrisscheeren@yahoo.com
.
San Diego State v. BYU - 10PM on CBS Sports Network
Here's a few helpful links to get you prepped for tonight's HUGE Mountain West game. Let's hope it lives up to the hype better than the league's football "can't miss" game between TCU and Utah back in November!
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/preview?gid=201101260068
Good story featuring Jimmer Fredette (who you know) and D.J. Gay, point guard of San Diego State (who you might not...)
http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketball/story/Showdown-features-top-guards-in-Fredette-Gay-44098380
Maniac's Pick tonight - San Diego State +5.5 in a thriller
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/preview?gid=201101260068
Good story featuring Jimmer Fredette (who you know) and D.J. Gay, point guard of San Diego State (who you might not...)
http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketball/story/Showdown-features-top-guards-in-Fredette-Gay-44098380
Saturday Selections - The Maniac is Back
Missouri +5.5 @ Texas A&M
The Aggies have one of the best records in the country, but are seriously devoid of many quality wins worth boasting about. They are going to have their hands full with the pressure and relentless scoring attack of the Tigers. I like Mizzou winning outright in College Station, but love them getting 5.5.
Maryland @ Villanova -5.5
How bad is the ACC really?? Today might give us a nice glimpse when the Terps head over to Philly to meet Villanova. The Wildcats are the quietest Top 10 team in the country, with their only loss coming in Knoxville on an afternoon where the Vols shot the lights out. Aside from that, they've been perfect, including wins over Temple, Cincinnati and Louisville. I think Maryland is one of the top three or four teams in the ACC, behind Duke (obviously), North Carolina and then lumped in that middle group with Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech. Keeping that sort of company makes a 5-point spread at 'Nova seem way, way too low. Gimme the Wildcats by double digits.
Georgia +4.5 @ Ole Miss
Georgia has as much talent as any team in the SEC outside of Kentucky. They lost last week to Vandy, but played decently in the game; Vandy is just really good (and has the best player no one knows about, Jeff Taylor). Georgia has played a solid schedule and taken a few lumps, but they are starting to become much better for it and are blossoming into an NCAA Tourney caliber team.
The Bulldogs are significantly better than Ole Miss on a neutral floor - so giving them 4.5 on the road seems too generous to pass up. Gimme UGA in a road win "upset."
UCF @ Southern Miss - 3
Anyone reading this already knows I am an excessively-proud UCF alum. You also have heard me pumping up Southern Miss and Gary Flowers as on of the true sleeper teams and players in the country and someone to watch in March. So today - I have to put my money where my mouth is. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I will be. Gimme the Golden Eagles laying three. I think I just spit up in my mouth a little bit.
New Mexico was one of the surprise teams last season, riding their fantastic MWC conference play to a gaudy record and a #3 seed in the NCAA Tourney. San Diego State fits that identical profile this season, though their sights might be set even a little higher; a #1 seed isn't out of reach. The other difference is Kawhi Leonard, the sophomore forward for the Aztecs, who is a legit NBA first rounder.
The other big factor? New Mexico isn't very good this year. Look at their record and their schedule. A 35 point loss to an abysmal Cal team. A 66-60 loss to Northern Iowa (also down from last season), and last week a loss at Wyoming. How are they basically a pick-em with one of the ten best teams in the country? Is their home court advantage truly that formidable?
I don't know either. Take the Aztecs. I'll make that my lock of the day.
MANIAC'S PICKS: SDSU-1 (lock), So Miss -3, Georgia +4.5, 'Nova -5.5, Mizz +5.5
Buy, Sell & Hold - Taking Stock of the National Landscape
I swear we were writing this column well before Colin Cowherd started doing it... seriously! I promise...
Anyhow - thanks to the ubiquity of the column, I'll spare the explanation and dive right in.
Duke - BUY
I've written since the fourth week of November, Duke can seriously run the table. I know, I know, but Maryland almost beat them in Durham last night. First, no, they didn't "almost beat them." They played them close for about 38 minutes, which is impressive and not many teams will do, but at no point was Duke a possession away from being beaten. Even when the score was close, one never got the feeling the Devils were in precarious territory.
The ACC is down, they've already mowed through an excellent non-conference schedule that featured at least seven NCAA Tourney teams (unless the bizarre K-State slide gets out of of control). With or without Kyrie Irving, this is the best team in the country. I've gone on record as saying Jared Sullinger is my National POY - but if the voting was today, Nolan Smith is second.
It's hard to "buy" when a team is 16-0 and ranked #1 in the country, but I don't care. Duke is deep, poised, impossible to press and athletic on the interior for the first time in a long time. They have no real discernable weakness other than perhaps the possibility of become a tad too jump shot reliant.
Notre Dame - SELL
I wrote this before the blitzing they took from Marquette tonight, so it seems a bit more obvious now. My point was simply, ignore polls. The Irish are good but nowhere close to the eighth best team in the country. By March, I see them slotting in close to where they did last year; around a #6 seed, and finishing in the top half, but not top quarter, of the Big East. They've been a great story, but objectively are not as good as Syracuse, Villanova or Pitt. Despite Georgetown's struggles I'd put the Hoyas ahead of them talent-wise as well - and in the same bubble with Marquette and St. John's (though ahead of both).
St John's - BUY
Speaking of the Johnnies, they aren't ranked, mainly because of two putrid early losses to Fordham and St. Bonnie. Since then, they have raced out to a 3-1 start in Big East play and can make a viable case for being the fifth or sixth best team in that league. I like St. John's to finish above .500 in conference and make a surprising return to the tourney in Coach Lavin's first year. Plus, isn't it a hoot seeing Gene Keady and the comb-over on the bench as Lav's reverse-role assistant?!?
San Diego State - HOLD
Look, the Aztecs are good. They are really good. Before the season ever tipped I tabbed them as the best team out West, and still believe that. However, I'm struggling to see them go much higher than #5 (where they sit this week). The Mountain West is good. Far more deserving of the Pac-10, and frankly every bit as good overall as the ACC, minus Duke.
Let's see how they handle BYU and UNLV coming up. Tear through them, and we'll talk. Until then, the sting of New Mexico's dismal tourney showing last season still hovers in my mind a bit...
Texas - BUY
The Longhorns are my sleeper Final Four team. Yes, they will suffer some losses in the brutal Big 12, but this team is starting to gel, has nice blend of youthful talent, experience and a legit All-American in Jordan Hamilton. Rick Barnes may care more about getting players to the NBA than winning, but this year they'll show the two ideals are not mutually exclusive.
Five more tomorrow when we examine Purdue, Missouri, Syracuse, Southern Miss and Washington.
Anyhow - thanks to the ubiquity of the column, I'll spare the explanation and dive right in.
Duke - BUY
I've written since the fourth week of November, Duke can seriously run the table. I know, I know, but Maryland almost beat them in Durham last night. First, no, they didn't "almost beat them." They played them close for about 38 minutes, which is impressive and not many teams will do, but at no point was Duke a possession away from being beaten. Even when the score was close, one never got the feeling the Devils were in precarious territory.
The ACC is down, they've already mowed through an excellent non-conference schedule that featured at least seven NCAA Tourney teams (unless the bizarre K-State slide gets out of of control). With or without Kyrie Irving, this is the best team in the country. I've gone on record as saying Jared Sullinger is my National POY - but if the voting was today, Nolan Smith is second.
It's hard to "buy" when a team is 16-0 and ranked #1 in the country, but I don't care. Duke is deep, poised, impossible to press and athletic on the interior for the first time in a long time. They have no real discernable weakness other than perhaps the possibility of become a tad too jump shot reliant.
Notre Dame - SELL
I wrote this before the blitzing they took from Marquette tonight, so it seems a bit more obvious now. My point was simply, ignore polls. The Irish are good but nowhere close to the eighth best team in the country. By March, I see them slotting in close to where they did last year; around a #6 seed, and finishing in the top half, but not top quarter, of the Big East. They've been a great story, but objectively are not as good as Syracuse, Villanova or Pitt. Despite Georgetown's struggles I'd put the Hoyas ahead of them talent-wise as well - and in the same bubble with Marquette and St. John's (though ahead of both).
St John's - BUY
Speaking of the Johnnies, they aren't ranked, mainly because of two putrid early losses to Fordham and St. Bonnie. Since then, they have raced out to a 3-1 start in Big East play and can make a viable case for being the fifth or sixth best team in that league. I like St. John's to finish above .500 in conference and make a surprising return to the tourney in Coach Lavin's first year. Plus, isn't it a hoot seeing Gene Keady and the comb-over on the bench as Lav's reverse-role assistant?!?
San Diego State - HOLD
Look, the Aztecs are good. They are really good. Before the season ever tipped I tabbed them as the best team out West, and still believe that. However, I'm struggling to see them go much higher than #5 (where they sit this week). The Mountain West is good. Far more deserving of the Pac-10, and frankly every bit as good overall as the ACC, minus Duke.
Let's see how they handle BYU and UNLV coming up. Tear through them, and we'll talk. Until then, the sting of New Mexico's dismal tourney showing last season still hovers in my mind a bit...
Texas - BUY
The Longhorns are my sleeper Final Four team. Yes, they will suffer some losses in the brutal Big 12, but this team is starting to gel, has nice blend of youthful talent, experience and a legit All-American in Jordan Hamilton. Rick Barnes may care more about getting players to the NBA than winning, but this year they'll show the two ideals are not mutually exclusive.
Five more tomorrow when we examine Purdue, Missouri, Syracuse, Southern Miss and Washington.
10 Under the Tree - The Early Season's Most Interesting Storylines are the Perfect Christmas Gift
Each year as the calendar reaches Christmas and lunges forward toward the new year, the national landscape has inevitably shifted dramatically from what all the "geniuses" and "experts" had just mere months ago believed to be true. There are always a few pleasant surprises and a few disappointments, and with respect to Denny Green, some teams "are who we thought they were."
Take Duke for example. The Devils entered the season at #1 and have done nothing to even remotely dissuade the pollsters. Even with the uncertainty surrounding freshman point guard sensation Kyrie Irving's toe it is hard to compile any form of rankings that doesn't have the Blue Devils atop the list. Their schedule may not have been the most difficult, but with wins over Michigan State, Kansas State, Butler and Marquette it's hard to argue they haven't been tested. Even Duke's gimme games are against better opponents than some of the Big 12 and BEast giants have fattened up on.
For the most part, the power conferences expected to be strong have not disappointed. The Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East comprise more than 60% of this week's Top 25, and each have several additional teams sitting right on the cusp of the Top 25.
In fact, after Butler's celebrated "rise of the little guys "run last March, this season is as devoid of any non-BCS conference contenders as any in recent memory. Butler, Xavier and Gonzaga, three of the most reliable mid-majors, have all struggled and are considerably off their recent top form. Memphis, who despite never being lumped in with the other "mid-majors" is coming off a season where they missed the tourney for the first time in nearly a decade. If this season's struggles continue, they might soon find themselves lumped in with the other have-nots in terms of public perception, relegated to "Mid Major Top 10's" and other such previously "beneath them" relegations. Second tier mid-major darlings like Siena, Creighton, Virginia Commonwealth, Winthrop, and Davidson all seem devoid of the magic that lingered over the past few seasons. Sadly, the national landscape is significantly lacking in mid-major excitement.
For better or worse, let's take a look at March Maniac's 10 Most Intriguing Story lines of the young season:
10. UCF Cracks Top 25 - Watching Marcus Jordan and the Knights vanquish instate foes Florida, Miami and South Florida it is hard to imagine how the coaches had them tabbed 10th in the preseason C-USA poll. Yes, Conference USA is deeper and much improved, with Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB and UTEP all solid. It is still evident the coaches really fanned on this one. With four quality wins under their belts already, it isn't out of the realm of possibility the Knights could qualify as an at-large selection if need be come March.
9. The SEC Worst...er "West" - Thank goodness for the East or else the SEC would have a difficult time contending they are even among the top 10 conferences in the country. Ole Miss and Mississippi State could be decent, the same goes for Arkansas...however the fact remains that these six collectively already boast losses North Texas, Nicholls State, Coastal Carolina, Samford, UNC Ashville, Campbell, Presbyterian, Florida Atlantic, St. Peters's and East Tennessee State. Auburn and Alabama have been abysmal, LSU has stunk even with their typical lousy schedule. Ditto for Arkansas. It's looking like a long wait until football season for a lot of fans in SEC country.
8. The Toe You Know - Two months ago, Kyrie Irving was relatively unknown outside of die-hard college hoop fans. After exploding on the scene against Kansas State and Michigan State, thoroughly outplaying All-Americans Jacob Pullen and Kalin Lucas in the process, Kyrie was edging himself into national POY status - despite sharing the Duke spotlight with established stars like Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.
Now, the prospects of Duke making a run at perfection seems to hinge largely on the "will he, won't he" return status around his nebulous injured toe.
Regardless of how it shakes out, here's hoping we get to see Kyrie one more year in Durham playing alongside Austin Rivers and all three Plumlee boys...
7. The BEast Still Roars - There was some speculation that this might be a down year for the Big East, or at least a year when the Big Ten and Big 12 can borrow a little of the shine. As Big Ten alumnus Lee Corso likes to say, "not so fast my friend!"
Of the seven remaining undefeated teams in the nation, three reside in the BEast. What makes that even more impressive is that these three do NOT include Pitt, Georgetown or Villanova, all who possess the talent to land in the Final Four. UConn and Syracuse have dazzled this year, not only winning every game but beating quality opponents convincingly. Cincinnati is one of the nation's surprises at 12-0. The Bearcats take some knocks for the light schedule, but I became a believer after watching them double up a quality Dayton club 68-34.
Add in Louisville, West Virginia, Marquette and Notre Dame who have all played fantastic and you are once again looking at a league with nine or ten elite ballclubs.
Aside from St. John's and seemingly permanently sluggish DePaul, it's hard to label any team in the BEast a disappointment thus far in 2010.
6. Freshman Leading the Way - Take a look at the top of the polls and you'll find a number of elite teams being led by some simply stunning freshman. Jared Sullinger has Ohio State looking like the team most capable of taking down the Dukies. If I had a ballot (still waiting for mine...hmmm), Sullinger is my vote for National POY. Duke's Kyrie Irving has been flawless (get well soon Kyrie), and Kentucky has an entirely new cast of characters, but is achieving the same fantastic results, powered largely by three freshman including standout PF Terrance Jones.
Don't be surprised if the year ends with at least two freshman on the All-American team
5. Carolina Blues - Last year's fiasco was supposed to be a quick blip on the radar, a one season anomaly to be erased completely this Fall with the arrival of freshman phenom Harrison Barnes. To this point, Barnes has struggled mightily and the Tarheels are plagued by the same problems as a year ago; terrible play from the point and the lack of consistent offensive production from their wings. Carolina salvaged what could have been a disastrous preconference season with the win over Kentucky, but at 8-4 and their second-best win a squeaker over Charleston at home they need to go at least 10-8 in ACC play to get a tourney invite. Someone send Roy a box of Kleenex for Christmas... he might really need 'em.
4. Speaking of the ACC...and Who Would Want To? - The WCC has long been known as "Gonzaga and the Other Guys." This year, the ACC might more aptly fit the bill, substitute "Duke" for Gonzaga. Virginia Tech was allegedly the second best team in the conference. They raised their level of schedule this year, in response to being narrowly omitted from the past two NCAA tournaments. Schedule strength only helps if you win a few of the games. At 7-4, the Hokies find themselves in all-too-familiar territory; needing to win in conference to avoid popping once again on the dreaded bubble.
3. Kings of the Mountain - Move over Pac-10, the Mountain West is clearly the class of the West this year. San Diego State has risen all the way to #7 in the polls and the ranking isn't a fluke. Kawhi Leonard and company are big, quick and deep enough to make a serious run at the Final Four.
BYU returns senior scoring machine Jimmer Fredette, and UNLV has navigated an extremely challenging preconference schedule pretty well with wins over VA Tech, Kansas State and Wisconsin, and a quality loss to Louisville on the road. The one point loss to UCSB is a head scratcher, but as we like to remind folks on March Maniacs, nearly every teams will use their mulligan somewhere along the way.
Even New Mexico, Utah and Air Force put decent squads on the floor making the MWC not only the best conference out west, but arguably the fourth best conference in the country this season. (Behind only Big 12, Big Ten and the BEast).
2. The Benefits and the Doubt - Improper benefits have been the buzzword this season in college hoops. Let's hope there aren't many more to deal with before tourney time, but it seems inevitable one or two more issues will crop up. Enis Kanter was denied eligibility by the NCAA, and unless a surprising reversal occurs in the next week, Kentucky will never get the 7-foot Turkish big man into Wildcat blue. Josh Selby's much anticipated debut had to wait until last week before the Kansas PG was cleared to play after serving his
suspension for accepting improper benefits (to the tune of less than $1,000 in travel allowance).
Tennessee finds themselves in the most unique predicament, as Bruce Pearl has been suspended by the SEC (not the NCAA) for the first eight games of conference play. Due to a scheduling anomaly, Pearl WILL coach the UConn game that falls in the midst of the first eight conference games. For everyone's sake, let's hope the talk from here on out focuses more ON the court and a whole lot less on what is happening off it.
1. Can Duke Run the Table and Repeat as National Champs?
Before Kyrie Irving injured his toe, I would have contended not only do they have a shot, I think they will in fact run the table. I wrote as much in a column immediately after the Kansas State game. Not only is Duke a very complete a ballclub this year, the ACC is truly lousy and devoid of a worthy rival.
After the injury? I'm still not backing off. Duke can run the table and be the first undefeated National Champ since Bobby Knight's Hoosiers 35 years ago. With Nolan Smith, Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry the Blue Devils still have plenty of ball handling and perimeter offense. Placing Kyle Singler at the four essentially gives them a fourth point guard to help handle any pressure and create good looks at the basket.
I love this team and how it is constructed. The most interesting thing about Duke? They won the title last year. This year's team is better. Next year? The team will be EVEN BETTER than this squad with the arrival of Austin Rivers and the third Plumlee brother (a 7-footer to boot!)
Duke has several landmines they'll need to avoid; Carolina on the road is an electric environment and a rivalry game where you can throw out the team's records and know a battle is coming. Likewise trips to Florida State have historically given Coach K fits. I don't see any game for the rest of the regular season in which the Devils won't be considerable favorites heading into the game. Perfection is within their grasp, even if Kyrie doesn't return.
Take Duke for example. The Devils entered the season at #1 and have done nothing to even remotely dissuade the pollsters. Even with the uncertainty surrounding freshman point guard sensation Kyrie Irving's toe it is hard to compile any form of rankings that doesn't have the Blue Devils atop the list. Their schedule may not have been the most difficult, but with wins over Michigan State, Kansas State, Butler and Marquette it's hard to argue they haven't been tested. Even Duke's gimme games are against better opponents than some of the Big 12 and BEast giants have fattened up on.
For the most part, the power conferences expected to be strong have not disappointed. The Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East comprise more than 60% of this week's Top 25, and each have several additional teams sitting right on the cusp of the Top 25.
In fact, after Butler's celebrated "rise of the little guys "run last March, this season is as devoid of any non-BCS conference contenders as any in recent memory. Butler, Xavier and Gonzaga, three of the most reliable mid-majors, have all struggled and are considerably off their recent top form. Memphis, who despite never being lumped in with the other "mid-majors" is coming off a season where they missed the tourney for the first time in nearly a decade. If this season's struggles continue, they might soon find themselves lumped in with the other have-nots in terms of public perception, relegated to "Mid Major Top 10's" and other such previously "beneath them" relegations. Second tier mid-major darlings like Siena, Creighton, Virginia Commonwealth, Winthrop, and Davidson all seem devoid of the magic that lingered over the past few seasons. Sadly, the national landscape is significantly lacking in mid-major excitement.
For better or worse, let's take a look at March Maniac's 10 Most Intriguing Story lines of the young season:
10. UCF Cracks Top 25 - Watching Marcus Jordan and the Knights vanquish instate foes Florida, Miami and South Florida it is hard to imagine how the coaches had them tabbed 10th in the preseason C-USA poll. Yes, Conference USA is deeper and much improved, with Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB and UTEP all solid. It is still evident the coaches really fanned on this one. With four quality wins under their belts already, it isn't out of the realm of possibility the Knights could qualify as an at-large selection if need be come March.
9. The SEC Worst...er "West" - Thank goodness for the East or else the SEC would have a difficult time contending they are even among the top 10 conferences in the country. Ole Miss and Mississippi State could be decent, the same goes for Arkansas...however the fact remains that these six collectively already boast losses North Texas, Nicholls State, Coastal Carolina, Samford, UNC Ashville, Campbell, Presbyterian, Florida Atlantic, St. Peters's and East Tennessee State. Auburn and Alabama have been abysmal, LSU has stunk even with their typical lousy schedule. Ditto for Arkansas. It's looking like a long wait until football season for a lot of fans in SEC country.
8. The Toe You Know - Two months ago, Kyrie Irving was relatively unknown outside of die-hard college hoop fans. After exploding on the scene against Kansas State and Michigan State, thoroughly outplaying All-Americans Jacob Pullen and Kalin Lucas in the process, Kyrie was edging himself into national POY status - despite sharing the Duke spotlight with established stars like Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.
Now, the prospects of Duke making a run at perfection seems to hinge largely on the "will he, won't he" return status around his nebulous injured toe.
Regardless of how it shakes out, here's hoping we get to see Kyrie one more year in Durham playing alongside Austin Rivers and all three Plumlee boys...
7. The BEast Still Roars - There was some speculation that this might be a down year for the Big East, or at least a year when the Big Ten and Big 12 can borrow a little of the shine. As Big Ten alumnus Lee Corso likes to say, "not so fast my friend!"
Of the seven remaining undefeated teams in the nation, three reside in the BEast. What makes that even more impressive is that these three do NOT include Pitt, Georgetown or Villanova, all who possess the talent to land in the Final Four. UConn and Syracuse have dazzled this year, not only winning every game but beating quality opponents convincingly. Cincinnati is one of the nation's surprises at 12-0. The Bearcats take some knocks for the light schedule, but I became a believer after watching them double up a quality Dayton club 68-34.
Add in Louisville, West Virginia, Marquette and Notre Dame who have all played fantastic and you are once again looking at a league with nine or ten elite ballclubs.
Aside from St. John's and seemingly permanently sluggish DePaul, it's hard to label any team in the BEast a disappointment thus far in 2010.
6. Freshman Leading the Way - Take a look at the top of the polls and you'll find a number of elite teams being led by some simply stunning freshman. Jared Sullinger has Ohio State looking like the team most capable of taking down the Dukies. If I had a ballot (still waiting for mine...hmmm), Sullinger is my vote for National POY. Duke's Kyrie Irving has been flawless (get well soon Kyrie), and Kentucky has an entirely new cast of characters, but is achieving the same fantastic results, powered largely by three freshman including standout PF Terrance Jones.
Don't be surprised if the year ends with at least two freshman on the All-American team
5. Carolina Blues - Last year's fiasco was supposed to be a quick blip on the radar, a one season anomaly to be erased completely this Fall with the arrival of freshman phenom Harrison Barnes. To this point, Barnes has struggled mightily and the Tarheels are plagued by the same problems as a year ago; terrible play from the point and the lack of consistent offensive production from their wings. Carolina salvaged what could have been a disastrous preconference season with the win over Kentucky, but at 8-4 and their second-best win a squeaker over Charleston at home they need to go at least 10-8 in ACC play to get a tourney invite. Someone send Roy a box of Kleenex for Christmas... he might really need 'em.
4. Speaking of the ACC...and Who Would Want To? - The WCC has long been known as "Gonzaga and the Other Guys." This year, the ACC might more aptly fit the bill, substitute "Duke" for Gonzaga. Virginia Tech was allegedly the second best team in the conference. They raised their level of schedule this year, in response to being narrowly omitted from the past two NCAA tournaments. Schedule strength only helps if you win a few of the games. At 7-4, the Hokies find themselves in all-too-familiar territory; needing to win in conference to avoid popping once again on the dreaded bubble.
3. Kings of the Mountain - Move over Pac-10, the Mountain West is clearly the class of the West this year. San Diego State has risen all the way to #7 in the polls and the ranking isn't a fluke. Kawhi Leonard and company are big, quick and deep enough to make a serious run at the Final Four.
BYU returns senior scoring machine Jimmer Fredette, and UNLV has navigated an extremely challenging preconference schedule pretty well with wins over VA Tech, Kansas State and Wisconsin, and a quality loss to Louisville on the road. The one point loss to UCSB is a head scratcher, but as we like to remind folks on March Maniacs, nearly every teams will use their mulligan somewhere along the way.
Even New Mexico, Utah and Air Force put decent squads on the floor making the MWC not only the best conference out west, but arguably the fourth best conference in the country this season. (Behind only Big 12, Big Ten and the BEast).
2. The Benefits and the Doubt - Improper benefits have been the buzzword this season in college hoops. Let's hope there aren't many more to deal with before tourney time, but it seems inevitable one or two more issues will crop up. Enis Kanter was denied eligibility by the NCAA, and unless a surprising reversal occurs in the next week, Kentucky will never get the 7-foot Turkish big man into Wildcat blue. Josh Selby's much anticipated debut had to wait until last week before the Kansas PG was cleared to play after serving his
suspension for accepting improper benefits (to the tune of less than $1,000 in travel allowance).
Tennessee finds themselves in the most unique predicament, as Bruce Pearl has been suspended by the SEC (not the NCAA) for the first eight games of conference play. Due to a scheduling anomaly, Pearl WILL coach the UConn game that falls in the midst of the first eight conference games. For everyone's sake, let's hope the talk from here on out focuses more ON the court and a whole lot less on what is happening off it.
1. Can Duke Run the Table and Repeat as National Champs?
Before Kyrie Irving injured his toe, I would have contended not only do they have a shot, I think they will in fact run the table. I wrote as much in a column immediately after the Kansas State game. Not only is Duke a very complete a ballclub this year, the ACC is truly lousy and devoid of a worthy rival.
After the injury? I'm still not backing off. Duke can run the table and be the first undefeated National Champ since Bobby Knight's Hoosiers 35 years ago. With Nolan Smith, Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry the Blue Devils still have plenty of ball handling and perimeter offense. Placing Kyle Singler at the four essentially gives them a fourth point guard to help handle any pressure and create good looks at the basket.
I love this team and how it is constructed. The most interesting thing about Duke? They won the title last year. This year's team is better. Next year? The team will be EVEN BETTER than this squad with the arrival of Austin Rivers and the third Plumlee brother (a 7-footer to boot!)
Duke has several landmines they'll need to avoid; Carolina on the road is an electric environment and a rivalry game where you can throw out the team's records and know a battle is coming. Likewise trips to Florida State have historically given Coach K fits. I don't see any game for the rest of the regular season in which the Devils won't be considerable favorites heading into the game. Perfection is within their grasp, even if Kyrie doesn't return.
Aztecs Best Team in Nation No One Knows About
San Diego State posted their third impressive double-digit win in a week, blasting Cal 77-57 last night in Berkley. The win moved the Aztecs to a perfect 9-0 on the season and should likely turn the page on 2010 at 15-0 before entering MWC play.
Coach Steve Fisher summed it up well after the game, saying "“We’re a good team, to come in here and win the way we did lets a lot of people know that. It continues to create validity of who we are.”
Validate indeed. Unlike many of the teams perched in the Top 25, the Aztecs have done it in impressive fashion against quality opponents. while they have yet to tussle with a true heavyweight, six of the nine wins have come against Top 100 competition, and the win over IUPUI looks even better after the Jags led #2 Ohio State for 34 minutes before wilting down the stretch.
Joining the Aztecs in the Top 25 are conference mates UNLV and BYU, giving the Mountain West three ranked teams. Meanwhile, the Pac-10 (Washington) and the SEC (Tennessee and Kentucky) have just one and two respectively.
It is not unreasonable to project the MWC winner could legitimately earn a #2 seed this March.
Coach Steve Fisher summed it up well after the game, saying "“We’re a good team, to come in here and win the way we did lets a lot of people know that. It continues to create validity of who we are.”
Validate indeed. Unlike many of the teams perched in the Top 25, the Aztecs have done it in impressive fashion against quality opponents. while they have yet to tussle with a true heavyweight, six of the nine wins have come against Top 100 competition, and the win over IUPUI looks even better after the Jags led #2 Ohio State for 34 minutes before wilting down the stretch.
 |
| Kawhi Leonard and Fisher are sowing the seeds for a deep march run |
It is not unreasonable to project the MWC winner could legitimately earn a #2 seed this March.
Middling Majors
It hurts me greatly to write it, and it saddens me to think it, but it must be said.
The "year of the mid-major" is dead. It has been a long time since the college hoops landscape was as devoid of legitimate Final Four contenders outside the BCS leagues as it appears this season. Even the "don't call us MID" major crowd has taken seismic steps backwards.
The Butler Bulldogs played Hickory Huskers for the nation Hoosier's dreams to within a soft bounce of a national championship last April. Six scant months later the Bulldogs are closer to needing to win the Horizon league to make the tourney than they are to playing in any Final Fours. They opened the season getting pummeled by a less-than-great Louisville squad. Pitino might coach them up satisfactorily in this season of insane parity, but my earliest instincts tell me the Cards are headed for the NIT. Today, Butler lost at home. To MVC bottom tier Evansville. Prior to heading to Hinkle, the Purple Aces suffered consecutive double-digit losses to Indiana and Middle Tennessee State. Ouch.
The road doesn't get easier for Butler anytime soon. Before seeking refuge in Horizon league play, Brad Stevens' Bulldogs still have to travel to Duke and Xavier. At this point, even home games with Stanford and Utah seem less than automatic.
Speaking of Xavier, the Muskies entered the season joining Michigan State as the only schools in the country who have made the past three Sweet Sixteens. Early indications are the Muskies won't be making it four. The season began with a dramatic comeback win over Western Michigan and an overtime tussle with the Mastadons of IPFW. Xavier finished the Cancun Classic with two wins (over Iowa and Seton Hall, two bottom tier BCS'ers) before getting handled with relative ease by Old Dominion.
Granted ODU has the talent to return the the tourney for the second straight year, but the lopsided loss was just another example of how much early entries (Derrick Brown and Jordan Crawford) have finally caught up with their program. With the possible exception of Gonzaga, no other mid-major is faced with the common legitimate possibility of losing players early to the professional ranks. For Xavier, the defection of Crawford left a gaping offensive void they have yet to figure out how to replenish. Junior point guard Tu Holloway has played as well as any lead guard in the country other than Kemba Walker, but someone else is going to have to help shoulder the load if the Muskies have any chance of being a solid tourney team.
If Butler's schedule is daunting, then Xavier's is murderous. In addition to hosting Butler, the Muskies play Wofford, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Florida and Cincinnati before taking on a solid A-10 schedule featuring Temple, Dayton, Richmond and Rhode Island.
If 2006 was the mid-major high water mark, with at large bids flooding in from the Missouri Valley, C-USA, Colonial and others, 2010 might the drought. Despite a clearly level landscape outside of 8-10 teams this year, very few of the mid-majors have been able to stack those early season chips that are so vital come selection Sunday.
Here's a quick breakdown of some of the hopefuls and their early season returns through Thanksgiving.
Memphis - Perhaps the only lock on the list. Right now the Tigers are 5-0 with wins over Miami and LSU. They still get cracks at Tennessee, Georgetown and Kansas this year to notch another "good win" to add to their profile. After last year's rare anomaly the Tigers are once again clearly the class of the league.
Tourney Outlook: Near Lock
Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are as good as they have been in a long time, starting 3-0 with wins over South Florida and South Alabama. The problem might be their strength of schedule. With only games at Mississippi and Cal to boost their profile they better get at least one of two versus Memphis in addition to avoiding more than one or two bad losses
Tourney Outlook: Possible
UCF - Don't look now, but the Knights are off to a 5-0 start after beating instate foe South Florida last week. With games against Florida, Miami, and UMass the Knights get several shots at some good wins. Same as above with Southern Miss, only even more important, the Knights really need to get one against Memphis to get a second galnce.
At-large Outlook: Highly Unlikely
Others to Watch: UAB, Houston, UTEP, Tulsa
Siena - The Saints have been March darlings the past few seasons. To recapture the magic they will likely need to win their league tourney this year. At 2-3, with losses to Vermont (ouch), Butler and Minnesota, the Saints already fanned on their best chances at capturing a profile win.
At-large Outlook: Highly Unlikely
Others to Watch: None
Colonial:
VCU - Shaka Smart's team is in decent position to earn an at-large bid if they can handle their business inside league play. At 4-1 with wins over Wake Forest and UCLA and a competitive loss to Tennessee their early profile is solid. They have interesting separation games with Wofford and UAB on their schedule before entering league play. This is a good ball club who should win 21-23 games, and earn a bid.
At-Large Outlook: Good
Old Dominion - The Monarchs won their tournament over in Cancun, albeit over a field that sounded better than it is. The wins over Clemson and Xavier should prove valuable chips, and the narrow home-loss to Georgetown might actually help more than it hurts. They get three more good chances; Richmond, Dayton and Missouri will add some strength to the Monarchs' schedule. Grab two of those three and it's hard not to see ODU going back to the Dance.
At-Large Outlook: Good
Others to Watch: George Mason, James Madison,
MAC: Long gone are the conferences glory days, Miami (OH) and Kent State crashing the Sweet 16 and the MAC meriting the occassional at-large bid. Their aren't many challengers this year either, though Kent State at 6-1 with games upcoming Florida, USF, James Madison and UAB they could play their way into the discussion if they can take all four (especially the Florida game).
At-Large Outlook: Doubtful
Others to Watch: None
Missouri Valley: Remember in 2006 when the MVC sent four teams to the dance? Yeah, so does the Valley. They remember it with a wistful smile and a distant gaze... those days seem pretty far away. Granted Northern Iowa captured the nation's fancy after their stunning upset over Kansas, but with perennial dancer Creighton slumping and Wichita State being left on the the chopping block it was yet another one-bid year for the MVC.
Prospects look a little brighter this year, but no one is a clear lock.
Creighton: We'll find out soon. The three-point loss to Iowa State might up being worse than they thought and their four wins are pretty pedestrian. They need to sweep their upcoming contests with Northwestern, Nebraska, BYU and St. Joseph's to merit any consideration.
At-Large Outlook: Murky
Wichita State: Their 3-point loss to UConn might wind up being more valuable than some of their wins when the selection committee starts weighing resumes. They get shots at Tulsa, LSU and a tough trip to San Diego State to prove their mettle. Their schedule won't do them a ton of favors, but winning those aforementioned games will at least get them in the discussion paired with a good conference record.
At-Large Outlook: Decent
Others to Watch: Northern Iowa, Missouri State
Mountain West: This is easily the best non-BCS conference in the country. One could make a pretty compelling argument that the MWC is stronger than the Pac-10 this season. San Diego State is a near lock for the tourney, and I'd be very surprised if UNLV and BYU don't dance as well. New Mexico's eyebrow-raising 25 point loss to Cal (who subsequently lost to Notre Dame in a game they scored FIVE points in a half) drops them from the "likely" pile and into "others to watch"
At-Large Outlooks: SDSU - near lock; UNLV - very solid; BYU - very good
Others to Watch: Utah, New Mexico
Atlantic-10: The mid-major darling de jour might take a small step back this year. Xavier shows real signs of offensive struggles. Combined with a daunting schedule and the Muskies might be sweating Selection Sunday for the first time in five years. Dayton and Temple have the talent to make it out of the first week of the tourney, but haven't put it on full display quite yet. Richmond and Rhode Island look to build on last season's progress while St. Joes and UMass look to restore former glory.
All in all, this is a good, competitive league that should get at least 3 bids in March, however who those three bids go to will be quite a scramble. We'll do a complete A-10 Breakdown in a separate article.
This is shaping up early as a year in which a TON of bids will be up for the taking. Doing a quick rundown of the Big 6 conferences, I count only thirteen LOCKS, with most of leagues being a complete mess from second or third all the way down to ninth or tenth. That means there are some bids for the grabbing.
It remains to be seen if the little guys hands will be quicker than the giants.
The "year of the mid-major" is dead. It has been a long time since the college hoops landscape was as devoid of legitimate Final Four contenders outside the BCS leagues as it appears this season. Even the "don't call us MID" major crowd has taken seismic steps backwards.
The Butler Bulldogs played Hickory Huskers for the nation Hoosier's dreams to within a soft bounce of a national championship last April. Six scant months later the Bulldogs are closer to needing to win the Horizon league to make the tourney than they are to playing in any Final Fours. They opened the season getting pummeled by a less-than-great Louisville squad. Pitino might coach them up satisfactorily in this season of insane parity, but my earliest instincts tell me the Cards are headed for the NIT. Today, Butler lost at home. To MVC bottom tier Evansville. Prior to heading to Hinkle, the Purple Aces suffered consecutive double-digit losses to Indiana and Middle Tennessee State. Ouch.
The road doesn't get easier for Butler anytime soon. Before seeking refuge in Horizon league play, Brad Stevens' Bulldogs still have to travel to Duke and Xavier. At this point, even home games with Stanford and Utah seem less than automatic.
Speaking of Xavier, the Muskies entered the season joining Michigan State as the only schools in the country who have made the past three Sweet Sixteens. Early indications are the Muskies won't be making it four. The season began with a dramatic comeback win over Western Michigan and an overtime tussle with the Mastadons of IPFW. Xavier finished the Cancun Classic with two wins (over Iowa and Seton Hall, two bottom tier BCS'ers) before getting handled with relative ease by Old Dominion.
Granted ODU has the talent to return the the tourney for the second straight year, but the lopsided loss was just another example of how much early entries (Derrick Brown and Jordan Crawford) have finally caught up with their program. With the possible exception of Gonzaga, no other mid-major is faced with the common legitimate possibility of losing players early to the professional ranks. For Xavier, the defection of Crawford left a gaping offensive void they have yet to figure out how to replenish. Junior point guard Tu Holloway has played as well as any lead guard in the country other than Kemba Walker, but someone else is going to have to help shoulder the load if the Muskies have any chance of being a solid tourney team.
If Butler's schedule is daunting, then Xavier's is murderous. In addition to hosting Butler, the Muskies play Wofford, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Florida and Cincinnati before taking on a solid A-10 schedule featuring Temple, Dayton, Richmond and Rhode Island.
If 2006 was the mid-major high water mark, with at large bids flooding in from the Missouri Valley, C-USA, Colonial and others, 2010 might the drought. Despite a clearly level landscape outside of 8-10 teams this year, very few of the mid-majors have been able to stack those early season chips that are so vital come selection Sunday.
Here's a quick breakdown of some of the hopefuls and their early season returns through Thanksgiving.
Conference USA
Memphis - Perhaps the only lock on the list. Right now the Tigers are 5-0 with wins over Miami and LSU. They still get cracks at Tennessee, Georgetown and Kansas this year to notch another "good win" to add to their profile. After last year's rare anomaly the Tigers are once again clearly the class of the league.
Tourney Outlook: Near Lock
Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are as good as they have been in a long time, starting 3-0 with wins over South Florida and South Alabama. The problem might be their strength of schedule. With only games at Mississippi and Cal to boost their profile they better get at least one of two versus Memphis in addition to avoiding more than one or two bad losses
Tourney Outlook: Possible
UCF - Don't look now, but the Knights are off to a 5-0 start after beating instate foe South Florida last week. With games against Florida, Miami, and UMass the Knights get several shots at some good wins. Same as above with Southern Miss, only even more important, the Knights really need to get one against Memphis to get a second galnce.
At-large Outlook: Highly Unlikely
Others to Watch: UAB, Houston, UTEP, Tulsa
Metro Atlantic:
Siena - The Saints have been March darlings the past few seasons. To recapture the magic they will likely need to win their league tourney this year. At 2-3, with losses to Vermont (ouch), Butler and Minnesota, the Saints already fanned on their best chances at capturing a profile win.
At-large Outlook: Highly Unlikely
Others to Watch: None
Colonial:
VCU - Shaka Smart's team is in decent position to earn an at-large bid if they can handle their business inside league play. At 4-1 with wins over Wake Forest and UCLA and a competitive loss to Tennessee their early profile is solid. They have interesting separation games with Wofford and UAB on their schedule before entering league play. This is a good ball club who should win 21-23 games, and earn a bid.
At-Large Outlook: Good
Old Dominion - The Monarchs won their tournament over in Cancun, albeit over a field that sounded better than it is. The wins over Clemson and Xavier should prove valuable chips, and the narrow home-loss to Georgetown might actually help more than it hurts. They get three more good chances; Richmond, Dayton and Missouri will add some strength to the Monarchs' schedule. Grab two of those three and it's hard not to see ODU going back to the Dance.
At-Large Outlook: Good
Others to Watch: George Mason, James Madison,
MAC: Long gone are the conferences glory days, Miami (OH) and Kent State crashing the Sweet 16 and the MAC meriting the occassional at-large bid. Their aren't many challengers this year either, though Kent State at 6-1 with games upcoming Florida, USF, James Madison and UAB they could play their way into the discussion if they can take all four (especially the Florida game).
At-Large Outlook: Doubtful
Others to Watch: None
Missouri Valley: Remember in 2006 when the MVC sent four teams to the dance? Yeah, so does the Valley. They remember it with a wistful smile and a distant gaze... those days seem pretty far away. Granted Northern Iowa captured the nation's fancy after their stunning upset over Kansas, but with perennial dancer Creighton slumping and Wichita State being left on the the chopping block it was yet another one-bid year for the MVC.
Prospects look a little brighter this year, but no one is a clear lock.
Creighton: We'll find out soon. The three-point loss to Iowa State might up being worse than they thought and their four wins are pretty pedestrian. They need to sweep their upcoming contests with Northwestern, Nebraska, BYU and St. Joseph's to merit any consideration.
At-Large Outlook: Murky
Wichita State: Their 3-point loss to UConn might wind up being more valuable than some of their wins when the selection committee starts weighing resumes. They get shots at Tulsa, LSU and a tough trip to San Diego State to prove their mettle. Their schedule won't do them a ton of favors, but winning those aforementioned games will at least get them in the discussion paired with a good conference record.
At-Large Outlook: Decent
Others to Watch: Northern Iowa, Missouri State
Mountain West: This is easily the best non-BCS conference in the country. One could make a pretty compelling argument that the MWC is stronger than the Pac-10 this season. San Diego State is a near lock for the tourney, and I'd be very surprised if UNLV and BYU don't dance as well. New Mexico's eyebrow-raising 25 point loss to Cal (who subsequently lost to Notre Dame in a game they scored FIVE points in a half) drops them from the "likely" pile and into "others to watch"
At-Large Outlooks: SDSU - near lock; UNLV - very solid; BYU - very good
Others to Watch: Utah, New Mexico
Atlantic-10: The mid-major darling de jour might take a small step back this year. Xavier shows real signs of offensive struggles. Combined with a daunting schedule and the Muskies might be sweating Selection Sunday for the first time in five years. Dayton and Temple have the talent to make it out of the first week of the tourney, but haven't put it on full display quite yet. Richmond and Rhode Island look to build on last season's progress while St. Joes and UMass look to restore former glory.
All in all, this is a good, competitive league that should get at least 3 bids in March, however who those three bids go to will be quite a scramble. We'll do a complete A-10 Breakdown in a separate article.
This is shaping up early as a year in which a TON of bids will be up for the taking. Doing a quick rundown of the Big 6 conferences, I count only thirteen LOCKS, with most of leagues being a complete mess from second or third all the way down to ninth or tenth. That means there are some bids for the grabbing.
It remains to be seen if the little guys hands will be quicker than the giants.
Early Highs & Lows
As the saying goes, You can't win 'em all. Especially when you are the big boy on the block with a big target on your back for most of your non-conference games as smaller schools ramp up for one of the precious few chances to get some national attention. Every year several mid or low majors jump up and pick off one of the big boys, and just a short week into the season, this year is proving no exception.
Here's a quick rundown of what you might have missed in the opening week; five teams that have underwhelmed and a few more that have impressed. With about a half-dozen preseason tournaments going on this weekend, this list is sure to grow rapidly. The Maniac will provide another solid recap on Monday, as well as issuing some "Upset Alerts" for this weekend, so be sure to check back tonight and tomorrow
.
Five Underwhelmers:
2. LSU - It seems like the Tigers seem to find their way into the Maniac's doghouse every Winter. Usually it's for their dreadful non-conference schedule. This year, it's for their dreadful schedule AND getting blasted at home by Nichols State. This Sunday's date with Memphis will be a good indication as to whether it was just a rough night or the start of a rough season.
3. Wake Forest - Perhaps no team in the country has been hit harder by early NBA entrants than the Deacons. Kentucky may have lost more players, but at least there it is sort of expected. It's also far easier to reload in the Bluegrass than it is in the pale shadow of Duke and UNC. It's an excuse for the Deacons to be down this season. It's not an excuse for opening with a home loss to Atlantic Sun also-ran Stetson . Following it up with a 90-69 drubbing, again at home, to Virginia Commonwealth has it looking like Wake could be near the bottom of a down ACC.
With one of the nation's toughest non-conference schedules (Wofford, Iowa, Butler, Gonzaga, Georgia, LSU, Cincinnati and Wake Forest - plus possible meetings with either Old Dominion/Clemson or Seton Hall/Alabama) the Muskies better see some improvement quickly or it could be more than their Sweet 16 streak in jeopardy, it could be their tourney appearance streak as well...
5. South Florida - Last year the Bulls became media darlings of sorts as they made a daring run towards the NCAA Tournament despite being projected 14th or 15th in preseason BEast coaches polls. The Bulls came up just short, but entered this season with high expectations, despite Dominique James leaving early for the NBA. With losses to Southern Miss and UCF, the Bulls are not only digging a nearly-impossible to climb out of ditch, they would also be in last place in Conference USA.
And a Few Pleasant Surprises...
* Gardner Webb - Yes, they got boat raced down in Tallahassee, but the opening win over Charlotte was impressive. With upcoming dates with Michigan, Oklahoma, Arizona State and Louisville the Bulldogs will get a few more chances to add another profile win. Don't laugh, one of those wins could be the difference between a #13 and a virtually unwinnable #15 or #16 seed in March.
* Georgia - Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee enter the season ranked and Vanderbilt is considered a fringe tournament team by most. However, don't sleep on Georgia in the slightly overrated SEC East. Their win over Colorado is a better win that it appears at first blush, and the 'Dawgs handled them with relative ease. A Thanksgiving date with Notre Dame and early December hookups with Georgia Tech and UAB will give the 'Dawgs a chance to build a solid profile before conference play.
* St Mary's - They've played two non D-1 throwaways, but the 76-71 win over an improved St John's squad could be a nice chip to pile in March. Omar Samham is gone, but don't make the mistake of overlooking the Gaels. They'll get their chance on December 1st to do something conference rival Gonzaga could not; beat San Diego State.
* San Diego State - Speaking of which, the Aztecs might be the best mid-major in the country this season. Their road win in the Kennel is as impressive a win as a team has notched so far in this young season. If "best" seems like hyperbole, it isn't. They have to be considered no worse than co-favorite with BYU to win the Mountain West, and appear to be ahead of Gonzaga, Memphis, Xavier, Butler and the other usual suspects.
And the recap wouldn't be complete without a tip of the beanie to the Yale Bulldogs, despite losses to Quinnipiac and Providence, they were still able to go into Chestnut Hill and pull off the stunner.
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Tuesday Quick Picks - Jan 5th, 2010
Tough night last night as we went 1-2. Tonight we redeem ourselves with a few winners... hopefully. I always say if you want to make money picking college hoops, do it before Chirstmas before the lines catch up and before conference play. Once conference play kicks off it is like the NFL; everyone can play and recruit on a fairly similar level and the teams know each other really well.
That said, let's get to it.
Rhode Island -1.5 @ Akron - Hopefully we haven't sufficiently curse the Rams yet...otherwise this jumps out at me as the line of the night. Rhode Island is good. Akron isn't. Sometimes picking games really is that simple.
Georgia Tech -5.5 @ Georgia - Yeah, I know it's a rivalry game. That said Georgia Tech is significantly better at nearly every position on the floor tonight. I like the Jackets in what is becoming our dangerous precident of picking road favorites...
New Mexico @ San Diego St +4 - New Mexico, along with BYU is the class of the solid MWC this year. However, the Lobos have played an absolutly draining stretch against quality opponents and have came up big in all of them to get thrust into the national spotlight. I think the constant pressure takes a toll on the road against a similarly NCAA-hopefully Aztec squad. This is by far the best game of the night, even though hardly anyone will see it.
Maniac's Record 30-25-1 ATS
That said, let's get to it.
Rhode Island -1.5 @ Akron - Hopefully we haven't sufficiently curse the Rams yet...otherwise this jumps out at me as the line of the night. Rhode Island is good. Akron isn't. Sometimes picking games really is that simple.
Georgia Tech -5.5 @ Georgia - Yeah, I know it's a rivalry game. That said Georgia Tech is significantly better at nearly every position on the floor tonight. I like the Jackets in what is becoming our dangerous precident of picking road favorites...
New Mexico @ San Diego St +4 - New Mexico, along with BYU is the class of the solid MWC this year. However, the Lobos have played an absolutly draining stretch against quality opponents and have came up big in all of them to get thrust into the national spotlight. I think the constant pressure takes a toll on the road against a similarly NCAA-hopefully Aztec squad. This is by far the best game of the night, even though hardly anyone will see it.
Maniac's Record 30-25-1 ATS
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Bubblin' on Tuesday
Here's a quick guide to tonight's biggest bubble-impacting contests.
Penn State @ Ohio State:
Who'da thunk it? The Buckeyes looked to be tourney locks a month ago, and no one thought Penn State would even be in the mix before the season started. Most pundits have OSU just in and PSU just out. Think tonight swings the pendulum a little?!?
Maniac's Pick: Penn State +6.5
Pitt @ Providence:
Call it the Friars' last stand. For weeks we all tried to find reasons to convince the public the Friars' had earned their dance ticket. Well, most of us are just about out of ways to justify them getting in. 8th in the Big East or not, they just haven't done enough to merit inclusion in the Big Dance.
So tonight they get their chance.
Maniac's Pick: Pitt -9
Florida St @ Boston College:
BC has been great against the Golliath's...yet average against the rest of the conference. Their perch on the bubble is precarious at best, but another resume win tonight over the Seminoles should cement their tourney status.
FSU meanwhile is the opposite; they have done what they were supposed to in conference but not gotten that big marquee win. BC doesn't fit that bill either, but the Noles can ill-afford a loss as they chase a Top-4 seed.
Maniac's Pick: FSU +2.5
Florida @ LSU:
I know you have heard me say it before, but seriously, what is with the media hard-on for LSU?!? I can;t recall a team fattening up on more bums and raising in the polls as steadily as the Tigers over the past four weeks. Once again, let me remind you in their non-conference games they did not beat a single team in the RPI Top 100.
Staggering. Meanwhile, the Gators remain my frustrating sleeper team that needs to wake up. I think Billy D and Calathes get it done tonight, and I think the committee will punish LSU for the scheduling transgressions and give them no better than an #8 seed...
Maniac's Pick: Florida +4.5
Two other bubble games, but no picks:
Texas A&M and Nebraska play in a virtual elimination game tonight. Both still have work to do with a win, but a loss seals their fate.
BYU and San Diego State hook up in a great MWC matchup, BYU is "in" while San Diego St is "out" in most projections (including ours) but their resumes are much more similar than most people realize. Tonight's tilt gainst Steve Fischer's squad in San Diego is quietly one of the more impactful games in the country.
A win tonight would be "fab" for Fisher
Two week stretch run really gets rolling tonight...enjoy
Penn State @ Ohio State:
Who'da thunk it? The Buckeyes looked to be tourney locks a month ago, and no one thought Penn State would even be in the mix before the season started. Most pundits have OSU just in and PSU just out. Think tonight swings the pendulum a little?!?
Maniac's Pick: Penn State +6.5
Pitt @ Providence:
Call it the Friars' last stand. For weeks we all tried to find reasons to convince the public the Friars' had earned their dance ticket. Well, most of us are just about out of ways to justify them getting in. 8th in the Big East or not, they just haven't done enough to merit inclusion in the Big Dance.
So tonight they get their chance.
Maniac's Pick: Pitt -9
Florida St @ Boston College:
BC has been great against the Golliath's...yet average against the rest of the conference. Their perch on the bubble is precarious at best, but another resume win tonight over the Seminoles should cement their tourney status.
FSU meanwhile is the opposite; they have done what they were supposed to in conference but not gotten that big marquee win. BC doesn't fit that bill either, but the Noles can ill-afford a loss as they chase a Top-4 seed.
Maniac's Pick: FSU +2.5
Florida @ LSU:
I know you have heard me say it before, but seriously, what is with the media hard-on for LSU?!? I can;t recall a team fattening up on more bums and raising in the polls as steadily as the Tigers over the past four weeks. Once again, let me remind you in their non-conference games they did not beat a single team in the RPI Top 100.
Staggering. Meanwhile, the Gators remain my frustrating sleeper team that needs to wake up. I think Billy D and Calathes get it done tonight, and I think the committee will punish LSU for the scheduling transgressions and give them no better than an #8 seed...
Maniac's Pick: Florida +4.5
Two other bubble games, but no picks:
Texas A&M and Nebraska play in a virtual elimination game tonight. Both still have work to do with a win, but a loss seals their fate.
BYU and San Diego State hook up in a great MWC matchup, BYU is "in" while San Diego St is "out" in most projections (including ours) but their resumes are much more similar than most people realize. Tonight's tilt gainst Steve Fischer's squad in San Diego is quietly one of the more impactful games in the country.
A win tonight would be "fab" for FisherTwo week stretch run really gets rolling tonight...enjoy
Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com
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