Previewing the Southeast Region

On paper, the Southeast has been called the weakest of the four regions, however, that just means it is one of the trickiest to predict. Pitt appears to have an easier path than any of the other four #1 seeds, due largely to the ridiculous over-seeding of the Florida Gators and the weakening of the BYU Cougars due to the suspension of leading rebounder and best defender, Brandon Davies.

Wisconsin and Kansas State are interesting teams looking in the potential 4 vs 5 game, as both have taken down number one seeds this season; Ohio State and Kansas respectively. Meanwhile #6 seed St. John’s, despite a bevy of losses, has beaten more Top Ten teams than anyone else in the field.

In the higher seeds, last year’s tourney darling Butler seems to have righted the ship and can’t be considered an easy-out for the occasionally offensively-challenged Pitt Panthers. And Butler can’t look past their first-round opponent, Old Dominion. The Monarchs upset Notre Dame in the first round last year, holding Notre Dame’s senior star Luke Harangody to a career-low two points in the process. ODU is as good defensively as any team in the region, including Pitt, and could be a very difficult matchup in the second round.

Three double-digit seed dangers make their home in the Southeast region as well; Gonzaga, Utah State and Wofford all have significant tournament experience and a roster full of veterans, savvy ballhanders and enough sharp-shooters to spring first round upsets.

It’s going to be an exciting region, even if the names don’t pop off the page like they do in the East and West. Let’s take a look at some first round matchups, as well as who is going to advance, and eventually who will be cutting down the nets and making their way to Houston.

Ten Best Players in the Southeast Region:
Ashton Gibbs (Pitt), Brad Wanamaker (Pitt), Jordan Taylor (Wisconsin), John Lauer (Wisconsin), Jacob Pullen (Kansas State), Jimmer Fredetter (BYU), Chandler Parsons (Florida), Kalin Lucas (Michigan State), Dwight Hardy (St. John’s), Frank Hassel (ODU),

First Round Matchups:

#1 Pitt vs. #16 Ark Little Rock/UNC Asheville

In the top half of the bracket, Pitt should have little difficulty dispatching the winner of the Arkansas Little Rock v. UNC Asheville winner. They then face the winner of one of the best first-round games, a mid-major battle between Butler and Old Dominion.

#8 Butler v. #9 Old Dominion

I like the Monarchs stifling defense giving Butler fits. The Bulldogs had some magic last year, but it might have left early along with Gordon Hayward. ODU finished 27-6 and won the ultra-competitive Colonial Tournament. They won non-conference games over Clemson, Richmond and Xavier; all NCAA Tournament teams.

#5 Kansas State v. #12 Utah State

Utah State will be the popular upset pick, but let me caution you against betting against Jacob Pullen and the Wildcats. Kansas State is far to athletic for the Aggies, who have no answer for Pullen and the stable of long, athletic bigs Kansas State brings to the party. Utah State is a good shooting team, and has the potential to get hot from three and spring the upset, but I think Kansas State is head and shoulders better than Utah State and should roll in the first round.

#4 Wisconsin v. #13 Belmont

Wisconsin has been a consistent high-seed, thanks in large part to their incredible performance in the Kohl Center. It inflates their record and gives them a few marquee wins. This year is no exception, as they knocked off Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois, all in dominant fashion. However away from home they lost to those same teams, as well as UNLV and Notre Dame. In fact, other than Marquette they didn’t beat an NCAA Tournament team away from home all season.

Belmont has been sniffing the upset for quite some time, most notably their near-win over #2 Duke three seasons ago. They finished 30-4, and almost knocked off Tennessee in Knoxville, falling 66-65. I think this is the year they finally get their tournament win, in my Southeast Upset Special – Belmont Bruins over Wisconsin.

#6 St. John’s v #11 Gonzaga

This is my other first-round upset special. I like the poise and size of Gonzaga knocking off the erratic, but talented St. John’s Red Storm. Did you see the way St. John’s handled pressure situations in the Big East Tourney?? They may be a senior-laden ball club, but they aren’t a tourney-experienced ball club. Gimme the Zags rekindling some of the Cinderella magic that first put them on the map.

#3 BYU v. #14 Wofford

Wofford is nothing if not battle tested. The Terriers faced one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country, playing Minnesota, Clemson, Xavier, George Mason, Georgetown and VCU. They beat Mason and took Xavier to three overtimes before falling, but the losses laid a foundation for a great Southern Conference season.

BYU has endured the much-publicized suspension of forward Brandon Davies, but still has a guy names Jimmer Fredette pulling the strings. Wofford is going to put one heckuva scare into BYU, but in the end, I like Jimmer prevailing through to round 2.

#7 UCLA v. #10 Michigan State

Another fantastic first round match-up, an odd place for these two schools who have dominated the tourney for much of the last decade to be meeting up. UCLA is the higher seed, but Michigan State is the better team. Kalin Lucas should be able to control tempo, and as long as the Spartans shots don’t go ice cold, as they have on more than a few occasions this season, they should be able to get past UCLA.

#2 Florida v. #15 UC Santa Barbara

Florida is ridiculously over-seeded at a #2, but they should still advance though this game with little trouble. Plus, the game is in St. Pete, a virtual home game for the Gators whose fans should be attending en masse.

Moving Through the Region:

I like Pittsburgh getting past a tough ODU team, and meeting up with Kansas State in the Sweet 16. In the bottom half of the bracket, I’m going with complete chaos – Florida getting stunned at “home” by a resurgent Michigan State team and Gonzaga clipping the BYU Cougars.

In the Elite 8, I’ll take Pitt and Michigan State with Pitt cutting down the nets and heading off to Houston. I am reluctant to pick Pitt in an NCAA Tournament, given their perilous history of underperforming in March, but as the already-weak bracket falls apart all around them, it’s hard not to pick the Panthers to advance. Their biggest obstacle would be their Sweet 16 game with Kansas State, who has both the talent and tournament experience to knock them off.

SOUTHEAST CHAMP: PITT PANTHERS

UPSET PICKS:
Gonzaga, Michigan State and Belmont

Stock Up, Stock Down - Updating the VERY Fluid Bubble Picture

Selection Sunday is barely three weeks away and the scramble for position is starting to heat up.  Here's a quick recap of who helped their cause in the last five days and who is beginning to teeter.

STOCK UP:

Kansas State - The Wildcats saved their season Monday night with a convincing win over #1 Kansas.  Kudos to Jimmy Dykes of ESPN, who before the game said that if State had any chance of pulling the upset, senior Jacob Pullen needed to have a "Jimmer Fredette game." 

Pullen did just that, scoring a career-high 37 points.  The win resurects the Wildcats tourney life...for now.  Those two losses to Colorado are still a tough hurdle to overcome, particualrly if the Buffaloes can finish strong.

Boston College - I'm still not sold on the Eagles tourney worthiness, but their 76-72 win over Maryland moves them into much better position in the down ACC.

North Carolina - The Tarheels are still a Top 4 seed in the Maniac's book.  Their road win at Clemson all but assured them second place in the ACC, and put the final nail in Clemson's already weak NCAA chances.

Colorado State - Don't look now, but the Rams are one of the nation's most surprising at-large contenders.  I am not sure if the MWC can pull four bids, so it is imperative they keep pace with UNLV these last three weeks.  Saturday's win over New Mexico was enormous for CSU, and the final nail in Coach Alford's New Mexico Lobos' coffin.

The Rams still control their own destiny.  The host UNLV, and travel to BYU and San Diego State in three of their final five games.  Take two of those three and avoid any slip-ups and the Rams are in.  Easier said than done, but if you would have told and CSU fans the previous scenario back in November, I assure you they'd have taken it with a huge grin.

Temple - The Owls went on the road and hammered Dayton.  The Owls are all but a lock at this point, and have a shot at creeping as high as a #5 or #6 if they finish strong (which they seem to do every year).

Florida - We wrote about the Florida v. Tennessee game at length, so no need to rehash the ugliness.  But for Billy D, the Gators are nearing lock status.  With a stong finish they could creep as high as a #4, however with a tailspin they could slide all the way down to the #9-#10 range.

Memphis - Back to back wins over Southern Miss and UAB (Sat & Wed) all but clinch the Tigers as a tourney team in the Maniac's book.

St. John's - Lavin and the Johnnies got a huge win, 59-57 at Cincinnati Sunday.  ESPN has them as a #7 currently.  The followed up the win with a 80-68 win over Marquette - a huge win made even bigger by how much it damaged their fellow Big East bubble denizen's chances  We still have them holding in the #9 range - but definitely a tourney team barring a late collapse. 

Cincinnati - Yes, they lost in the aforementioned game, but the Wednesday pasting of Louisville moves the Bearcats into really good position to capture a well-deserved tenth bid for the Big East.


Virginia Tech - The Hokies are making a late surge towards finally ending up on the right side of the bubble.  Sunday's 102-74 win over Georgia Tech was an impressive offensive display.  Tuesday's pasting of Maryland moves them even closer, and they are beginning to separate them from the ACC bubble pack. 

Butler - The Bulldogs are making a furious rush to get back in the at-large discussion.  They've now won five straight, including wins over Wisc-Milwaukee, Wright State and Cleveland State to climb back to 11-5 in the Horizon League.


STOCK DOWN:

Duquesne - The Dukes tourney hopes took a devestating blow with Saturday's home loss to Xavier.  It isn't so much that the loss is bad more than it was the Dukes one great chance to earn a validating win that slipped through their fingers.  Despite their 11-2 A10 record, they still have only one Top 50 win to their resume (and eight losses).

Southern Miss & UAB - Both fell victim to conference bully Memphis this week; their respective tournament hopes might have fallen victim with the losses.  Neither is dead, but both have a huge road ahead of them, particularly Southern Miss who is nearing "must win the conference tourney" status.

Northern Iowa - Their at-large hopes gasped their last breath Saturday in their 18-point home loss to Wichita State.  The Shockers are looking good for March; the Panther will need to pull a shocker if they hope to Dance again this year.

UNLV - The Reb's missed a golden opportunity Saturday, losing 63-57 at home to San Diego State.  UNLV needs to finish strong to earn a third bid for the MWC (and hold off Colorado State).

Georgia - The Bulldogs Wednesday night loss to Vandy was a damaging one.  Georgia falls to 6-5 in the SEC and just 17-8 overall.  It's fair to say they MUST win one of their next two games; at Tennessee and at Florida to stay in the tourney picture.

At 1-3 in the Big Twelve It Might be a Short Season for Jacob Pullen

Last week Kansas State pre-season All-American guard Jacob Pullen said that if the Wildcats were to make the NIT, he "wasn't going to be playing."  If that's the case, Pullen might be about to embark on the final six weeks of collegiate career.

Missouri, who had also stumbled early in conference play, used a relentless offensive attack and precision passing in the transition game, as well as a spectacular effort from freshman point guard Phil Pressey as Missouri sent the Wildcats to their third defeat in four conference tries.  Kansas State fell to 13-6 (1-3) with the loss, and now finds themselves in a very precarious place in regards to even making the NCAA Tournament. 

Things are bleak now, but certaintly not over.  Don't forget there are an extra four bids hanging out there this season as the tourney expands it's field for the first time since 1985.  Frank Martin could wind up being the coach most saved from embarrassment by the addition of the four teams, but the most troubling thing for Wildcat fans is that they haven't even played Texas A&M, Texas or Kansas (twice) yet!

It is going to take a dramatic change of fortune in Manhattan to avoid a catastrophic NIT berth, a Jacob Pullen-less NIT at that, in a season the began with K-State entering with their highest preseason ranking (#3) in school history.  Those high hopes have quickly turned into a big nightmare in the Little Apple.

Up next, the Wildacts continue the gauntlet of Big 12 play with a trip to College Station, a visit from Baylor, and a trip to Lawrence to take on the 18-0 Jayhawks.

Games to Watch - Saturday December 11th

For those of you who have the college football "in-between blues," that odd period where teams dangle in limbo for two to five weeks waiting for their bowl games...all of which mean absolutely NOTHING save for one, saddle up for a fantastic day of college hoops that will bring it from noon until well after midnight.


Here's a quick overview of a few games worth catching or at least DVR'ing.

12:00 PM:  UNLV @ Louisville - Both teams are off to flying starts, undefeated and already possessing a few quality wins.  Tomorrow is a great opportunity to find out if Louisville's fast start is an indication they can compete in the loaded Big East and also an opportunity for the left half of the country to get a chance to see a very good UNLV team play.  UNLV has had the Cards number, beating them in each of the past two seasons (Louisville teams that were better, at least on paper, than this year's squad.)

This might actually be the best game of the day, a great way to kick of some hoops watching before lunchtime.  For the UNLV kids, it will be like playing a game at 9AM with the time change.  That's tough to do, and I think they'll come out a little flat and jet lagged.  Give me the Cards laying 3.5

2:30 PM:  Wisconsin @ Marquette - This game has quietly become one of the better rivalry games in the country over the past few seasons.  Both teams have a strong similarity in that it seems every season they are picked somewhere near the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, and sure enough, every year they exceed expectations and head to the Tournament. 

This year looks to be playing out exactly the same way.  Both teams enter at 7-2, with their losses coming against ranked foes and in close games.  Both have a few quality wins under their belt but can desperatly use another one before tackling conference play in the two toughest conferences in the nation.

Marquette will have the valuable home crowd advantage but I have a feeling Wisconsin has a touch more discipline and a little more cohesion and poise at this early juncture in the season.  Gimme the Badgers +1.

3:15 PM:  Tennessee @ Pitt - The Vols have been one of the season's pleasant surprises.  Tomorrow will be one of Pearl's last games on the sidelines before his oddly-arranged SEC-only eight game suspension takes effect.  Both teams are athletic and very physically tough.  I like Pitt at home in a really good ball game but nine points is a lot to lay considering this will likely be a game in the fifties or sixties.  I'll take the Vols and the +9.

4:00 PM:  Kansas State @ Loyola (IL) -  Odd line of the day.  not sure how K-State is laying only 8.5.  Gimme the Wildcats in a 20+ point romp.

4:00 PM:  Dayton @ Old Dominion -  The Flyers are reeling, despite their 7-2 record.  However, this is a talented and experienced club that should turn the corner soon.  Old Dominion continues their aggressive schedule with yet another hopeful tourney team.  I think the Monarchs win at home, but I'll take the Flyers +10.5

4:30 PM:  Washington @ Texas A&M - Texas A&M can land a clear blow for the Big 12 versus the Pac 10 with a win today at home.  Texas A&M is off to a good start at 8-1, however their only win of note came over Temple.  Washington has been carrying the banner as the only ranked team in the Pac 10, but it's hard to put A&M any better than sixth in the loaded Big 12.  I'm not sure if Washington feels any pressure to prop up their sagging conference, but a loss today is actually pretty damaging to league's overall profile.  I'll take Washington on the road, minus one and a half.

5:15 PM:  Indiana @ Kentucky - One of my favorite rivalries takes place today, and though much of the shine has faded over the past decade with neither school managing to be good at coinciding times, it still means a ton to their respective fan bases.  Indiana is in year three of the Tom Crean Era, and call me a hater, but it doesn't seem any real progress has been made.  Meanwhile in the Bluegrass it took Calipari all of half a day to bring the 'Cats from "NIT" to "Final Four" caliber. 

There's still a pretty big hill to climb in Bloomington, and I don't think today will be a step in that direction.  Give me Big Blue laying the thirteen points.

6:00 PM:  Arizona @ BYU - Sean Miller's Cats seem to be on the right track to erasing the memory of last year's rare tourney absence.  It had been nearly thirty years since the Cats were left out, and I'm sure Miller would like to put another thirty years distance in the rear view mirror.  A win today in Provo would go a long way.  I think they'll get it.  Gimme Arizona +2.5

7:00 PM:  Virginia Commonwealth @ Richmond - The sneaky gem in today's bursting schedule is this top-tier matchup between the CAA and the A-10.  Both schools have designs on playing in March, however neither league is notorious for collecting armloads of at-large bids.  Both schools could really use the chip today's win would provide. 

VCU's two losses are quality; Tennessee and to lesser extent, South Florida.  They also boast quality wins over UCLA and Wake Forest.  Richmond's losses are a little less solid; Old Dominion and Iona, however their wins are better; particularly the win over Purdue.

This should be a really good game, likely close, so I'll take VCU +8

8:30 PM:  Gonzaga @ Notre Dame -  The Zags are really struggling, and at 4-4 can ill-afford many more losses if they plan to continue their decade-long NCAA Tournament streak.  Notre Dame was one of the season's early surprises until Kentucky took some of their shine Wednesday night.  The line on this one is huge at 10.5, a number I think reflects a lack of confidence in Gonzaga rather than a ton of faith in the Irish.  I'm not so sure that either is warranted.  Give me Gonzaga and the points, and don't be surprised if they clip them straight up.

Maniac's Picks: Louisville -3.5, Wisconsin +1, Tennessee +9, Kansas State -8.5, Dayton +10.5, Washington -1.5, Kentucky -13, Arizona +2.5, VCU +8, Gonzaga -10.5

Bracketeering - Dec 5th, 2010, The Late Thanksgiving Edition

Welcome fellow maniacs to the season's belated Thanksgiving edition of Bracketeering.  We've recently grown a little bit in readers, so for those of you newly aquainted to the rankings, we do things a little differently here at MarchManiacs.com.  The rankings are an amalgamation of both objective and subjective qualities; wins matter, but WHO you have won and lost to and the MANNER in which the games unfolded matter most. 

That said, 10-0 without a high quality win doesn't automatically get ya' in.  More than likely, it keeps you out.  But that brings me to the final component of the Bracketeering rankings; what do you look like as a team and what is the potential for improvement.  There's a reason we tend to be a little ahead when lifting a team up in the rankings (example, two years ago we had Louisville #3 when they were #14 in the AP Poll.  By March, they were the #1 overall seed in the tournament. 

There are a bunch of other examples as well, Syracuse last year as well as Ohio State)  The reason it tends to work that way?  We watch a lot of games.  You will rarely find an opinion on a team we haven't watched play multiple times.

Where does the Maniac find the time?  Easy.  Mom and Dad have great satellite TV in their basement, which I live in....

On to Bracketeering!!

FINAL FOUR:

1. Duke - Slotting Duke at the top isn't really a daring move, but having them anywhere else would be a foolish one.  The defending champs are not only poised to repeat, they are actually considerably better than last year.  John Scheyer was fantastic last season but even as terrific as he was, it is impossible not deny Kyrie Irving is a significant upgrade at the point.  Ditto for Mason Plumlee.  Zoubek was a rebounding beast in March, but Plumlee gives the Devils a true post scoring presence and runs the break like an NBA lottery pick.  Even if he gets in foul trouble, they don't lose much bringing his brother in off the bench.  Watch how many times they lob it into the Plummle boy's in a given game.  Their abilities inside are clearly a focal point of Duke's offensive attack; something they have lacked for several seasons.


The starting five has upgraded, Nolan Smith returned, and Duke has even improved their depth.  Duke can legitimately play nine guys, which anyone who has watched Coach K over the years knows is more than enough to cut down the nets.  Coach K's previous four champs all relied primarily on seven players total.

Oh, and for good measure, Final Four MOP Kyle Singler decicded to spurn a likely first round NBA draft selection to return for his senior season.


Take all the reasons above, and factor in a questionable ACC and it is not too early to start "can Duke run the table" talk.

2. Ohio State - We had them #2 pre-season and the AP and ESPN polls have caught up.  The Buckeyes have the balance, athleticism and defensive abilities to cut down the nets.  Freshman Jared Sullinger is an absolute stud.  Think Blake Griffin.  The skill sets are very, very similar.  Blake Griffin was the #1 overall pick in the draft three years ago, and Sullinger is so good the comparison isn't an insult to either one of them.


What really puts Ohio State clearly ahead of some of the teams right below them is the senior leadership and all-around game of David Lighty.  Lighty was a freshman on the 2007 National Runner-Up team.  His defense is every bit as stellar as it was then, but his offensive game has really developed.  I liken this Ohio State team a lot to last year's Syracuse club.  Lighty plays the Wes Johnson role; a better defender and not quite as good a scorer (though a better shooter).


John Diebler is a stone cold assassin from the arc, a la Andy Routins and Lauderdale gives them the Rick Jackson/Onawaku-like banger inside.

Their win two weeks ago over Florida was as complete a ballgame as I have seen a team play this season and gave a good glimpse as to how good this year's Buckeyes can be.  Oddly enough, even after losing our National POY Evan Turner Ohio State is even better in 2010.

3. Kansas - This ranking is based more on gut feel and intuition than any imperical evidence.  The NCAA ended their glacial-paced stalemate over freshman Josh Selby's eligibility and the point guard will be ready to join the team officially on December 18th.  Considering most scouts had him rated on par with Duke's Kyrie Irving, the addition of Selby undoubtably makes the Jayhakws a more viable contender and eases some of the pain of losing Sherron Collins.


Kansas has yet to endure a true test, though their is nothing to be ashamed of beating Arizona and UCLA back-to-back.  However, the one-point margin over a really pedestrian UCLA team yesterday is cause for some pause.  I'm banking that the edition of Selby will elevate the Jayhawks to true national contender status, and is why they get the nod here over Kansas State, Michigan State and several worthy Big East squads.

Tuesday night's game against Memphis (7PM ESPN) is one I'm really looking forward to get a better read on the Jayhawks, though they will still be a work in progress until Selby suits up.

4. Georgetown - I'm going out on a little bit of a limb here, with Syracuse, Villanova and especially Pitt being rated much higher in the AP polls, however from the early eye test, Georgetown is the team to beat in the Big East.  With wins over Old Dominion, NC State and Missouri they have already passed some quality early tests.  The OT win over Missouri at absolute breakneck speed was as impressive as it was surprising.  Anyone think they'd ever see a John Thompson III coached team put up 111 points?!?  I sure didn't.




Austin Freeman is my early nod for BEast POY, and Jason Clark and Chris Wright join the party to give the Hoyas quite possibly the best backcourt in the nation.  Thursday's trip to Temple gives the Hoyas another chance to notch a good resume win before a trip to Memphis and begining the gauntlet of BEast play.

ELITE EIGHT:
5. Pitt - I've been tough on Pitt over the years, and the arguement can be made perhaps I am being a little tough on them here as well.  In my defense, 90% of the shots I have taken had Pitt have been proven absolutely correct.



So here's my early read on Pitt:  They are a tough, very tough, defensive ballclub that makes it difficult to initiate offense and can wear out the full 35 second clock.  They are a very good rebounding team and pound the glass on both ends.  Their difficiencies show up only on the offensive end. 


Ashton Gibbs can score and is a good creator on offense.  Wannamaker is a steady point guard, though not noted as a big offensive threat.  In order for Pitt to be a Final Four team, they are going to need big production from McGhee, Brown and Taylor. 


It's another fantastic start for the Panthers, racing out to a 9-0 record.  Their 2-point win over Texas was a fantastic game, and the win over Maryland could look better by the end of the year if the Terps surprise in the ACC.  Other than that, the resume is really blank.  They sqeaked out a win over Rhode Island in their opener and really haven't taken on a reasonable opponent aside from that.



This Saturday they tackle Tennessee in a game that will be a nice litmus test for both teams.  After that we get a pre-New Year's treat when they open BEast play Dec 27th at Connecticut.

6. Kansas State - There's just something that isn't quite clicking with the year's Wildcat squad.  Despite entering the season with their highest preseason ranking in school history, #3, the 'Cats seem to be adjusting a little slowly to life without Denis Clemente.  Jacob Pullen recieved most of the headlines last season, but it is difficult to understate the impact each man had in making the other better.  The two were able to share ballhandling and scoring duties simultaneously, something Pullen simply won't be able to do with Rodney McGruder and Martavious Irving. 



Curtis Kelley gives them tremendous athleticism and defense on the interior, as well as a dramatically improved post game.  Continuing to develop their inside game will make Pullen even more effective in the backcourt.


The disappointing Duke performance aside, and it is hard to find much fault with K-State's early returns.  They've notched double-digit wins at Gonzaga and over Virginia Tech, as well as quality wins over Washington State and James Madison. 



Their preconference schedule includes a trip to face Florida (played in Miami) and a Christmas Eve visit from UNLV, two more excellent challenges for Frank Martin's squad before entering Big 12 play.  They certainly will enter as the favorite, along with rival Kansas, however don't be surprised if they are joined by Missouri, Baylor and Texas, three squads with the potential to win the very strong Big 12.

7. Michigan State - Yes, the Spartans already have two losses but in Bracketeering a five point road loss in Cameron Indoor is no cause for punishement.  Neither is a five point loss on a neutral floor to UConn.  Huskies fans will likely take exception to being listed below Sparty; but consider two important criteria.  One, what is the ceiling for this ballclub?  Two, who have they played and how have they played them.
 


For Tom Izzo, the team on the floor in November is nearly always nowhere close to as good as the team will be in March.  If any coach has been better at "coaching up" a squad over the last 15 years, I don't know who it is.  The good news for Izzo?  This Spartan team doesn't have that far to go to be a legit Final Four contender.  With Kalin Lucas and Durell Summers and Draymond Green back in the fold, along with solid role players in Delvon Roe and Corey Lucious, plus some valuable size in Garrick Sherman and the talent and experience is clearly there.

Balancing out close losses to UConn and Duke are impressive victories over South Carolina and Washington.  Never one to duck a daunting schedule, Izzo's club takes on Syracuse this Tuesday and hosts Texas on the 22nd before starting Big Ten play on New Year's Eve with Minnesota.

8. UConn - Hands down, Kemba Walker is the undisputed National POY if the season ended today.  Of course it doesn't, and I have a feeling he is going to start facing some unique defensive looks if someone doesn't emerge quickly to help the 6'0'', 180 pound lead guard.  Outside of Walker, no one one the team averages more than 12 ppg.  Only big man Alex Orihaki is in double figures.

The Huskies followed up their impressive win over Michigan State by absolutely boat-racing Kentucky the next day in Hawaii.  Since returning to the mainland they've (hopefully) gotten their letdown stinkbomb out of their system, struggling with New Hampshire before taking the lead late, 62-55. 

Things remain calm for UConn until Dec 27th when we will get a true feel for this team over a daunting two week stretch that includes three road tests; @ Pitt, @ Notre Dame and @ Texas.  Win two of those three, and they will certainly vault over Michigan State.  Until then, call me just a touch skeptical the Kemba Walker show can continue to knock off top competition.    


Sweet and lurking: The next tier




 From here on in, things get pretty tricky.  If we know one thing about this early season it is that parity is reigning supreme.  A healthy arguement could be made for about forty teams, and in truth, very few have satisfactorily serparated themselves thus far.  This is where the Maniac eye comes in to play.  You will find a few teams that have earned their slot on the floor who didn't make the cut (Notre Dame) as well as a few who haven't earned it who snag a slot (Kentucky).  Here's our take on the Sweet Sixteen tier.

9. Illinois - Demetri McCammey and company showed they belong among the nation's elite, as well as the Big Ten's which will prove every bit as competitive with their OT loss to Texas in Madison Square Garden.  This weekend the Illini easily handled a good Gonzaga squad.  Their wins over Maryland and North Carolina are two valuable chips in their favor, as well as a nice frame of reference for how much stronger the Big Ten is versus the ACC in 2010-2011.  The renewal of their border rivalry with Missouri on Dec 22nd will be an absolute dandy.

10. UNLV - Not many teams have done more in the preconference season than the Runnin' Rebs.  They have already knocked off Wisconsin as well as notching double digit wins over Murray State, Virginia Tech and Illinois State.  The Mountain West is one of the best conferences in the nation this year, not just one of the best non-BCS leagues.  From top to bottom this conference is better than the Pac-10 and SEC and certainly wouldn't be embarrassed by the ACC either. Winning that league this year could be plenty to earn a #2 seed if UNLV or San Diego State continue their stellar early season non-conference play.


11. Missouri -  The Tiger's OT loss to Georgetown is every bit as good as a win in our book.  Missouri is still playing at a breakneck tempo that is going to give teams fits all season.  This weeks matchup with Vanderbilt is going to be an awesome experiement in tempo control.  If the Tigers can speed up the 'Dores, they should roll.  If Vandy can keep the game in the 60's or lower, it is going to be fascinating to see if Mizzou can still score and defend efficiently.  Here's betting they can, and will.

12. Purdue - The loss of senior Robbie Hummel to his second ACL injury in as many years is a horrible blow to an otherwise Top 5 team.  However, be cautious in writing the Boilermakers off just yet.  E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson both chose to forgo the NBA draft and return to West Lafayette for one more season.  Purdue can compete with any team in the nation, but they are going to have to getter better play out of the trio of John Hart, Kelsey Barlow and Lewis Jackson in order to do so.  

The eleven point road loss to Richmond wasn't a good effort, but Richmond is a legit tourney team and will contend to win the A-10.  Purdue showed some real guts in their OT win over Virginia Tech (who is already sowing the seeds of yet another angst-filler bubble straddling season) and they follwed it up Saturday with a pasting of Alabama.  The Big Ten is brutal this year, easily the best and most complete league in the country, so to expect the Boilermakers to post the same record this season as last would be asking a bit much.  Don't infer that to mean this isn't a very, very good team.



Purdue will continue to have a pretty light load leading into conference play, thus a low RPI as the calendar turns to 2011.  However, they will have ample opportunity to earn huge resume wins nearly every week once Big Ten play commences.

13. Kentucky -  The Wildcats certainly have some work to do to even begin to approach their considerable talent.  That was extremely evident in this weekend's two point loss to struggling North Carolina (who much like the Wildcats will be considerably better in six to eight weeks.)  However they showed flashes of their potential brilliance in their routine win over Washington in Maui.  The 84-67 drubbing at the hands of UConn raised some concerns as the seemed unable to corral Kemba Walker despite the tremedous athleticism the Wildcats posses in their backcourt.  That tells me this team is still a bit immature and needs to strengthen their resolve on the defensive end of the court.

Brandon Knight has been impressive early, and looks to be the real deal though he will get very little media attention with Kyrie Irving and Josh Selby stealing many of the headlines.  Kentucky will struggle all year with stretches of offensive ineptitude unless they can find someone other than Darius Miller who can consistently knock down open jump shots.  Until then, expect the Cats to see a lot of zones and collapsing defenses on stud freshman Terrance Jones.

Wednesday's visit from Notre Dame will be an interesting test for both teams, and New Year's Day's trip to Louisville's new KFC Center is about as fun as college hoops gets.
14. Washington - Washington took a pair of defeats in Maui, a well played loss to Kentucky followed by another close defeat to Michigan State.  They do own a 106-63 blasting of Virginia (who beat Minnesota last week) and an equally thorough dismantling of Texas Tech  (Pat Knight might want to start updating the resume...).

Monday's tussle with Portland should be an interesting under-the-radar game, and this weekend's trip to Texas A&M will be an interesting ball game as well.  Once Pac-10 play begins, it appears Washington should be able to do some damage, as no one other than Arizona has shown much so far this season.  Isiah Thomas has shown some flashes of what was expected of him prior to last year's freshman campaign, averaging 15 points and a plus 2:1 assist/turnover ratio.

15. San Diego State - I really like this Aztec team and flirted with slotting them as high as ninth.  Khawi Leonard is a bigtime player, but he is by no means a one-man show.  Steve Fisher's squad has already gone into the Kennel and notched a comfortable win over the Zags and follwed it up with a 14 point win over the other WCC favorite, St. Mary's.  Tonight they downed Wichita State by 17, continuing their stellar preconference campaign.

The schedule is pretty barren over the next three weeks with a Cal team that has at times looked completely inept offensively the only real obstacle to starting the year 16-0.  Following that, things begin to get a lot more competitive with home and home's with UNLV, BYU, New Mexico, Air Force and Utah in MWC play. 

16. Tennessee - Slotting the Vols at #16 puts them considerably lower than the polls currently have them, and truthfully the Vols have earned a better ranking with their on-court play.  If their off-court play, specifically the issues with Bruce Pearl's suspension that have me still unsold on whether or not Tennessee is a serious contender to earn a top-four seed come March.

Wins over Villanova and VCU are impressive.  This weekend's trip to Pittsburgh is one you are going to want to DVR.  Both teams employ a similar athletic, defense-first style of play and it will be a treat to see who plays it better.

The SEC East is as good as any division in college basketball while the SEC West is simply dreadful.  Unfortunatly for the Vols, residing in the East gives them eight games against Kentucky, Florida, Vandy and Georgia respectively.  Add in Jan 5th's annual Memphis tilt and the Vols are going to get plenty of chances to earn some more big wins.

Bracket Busts: Five early season disappointments

Butler - What a difference a year makes.  Six months ago the Bulldogs were a mere few inches from capturing a fairytale-like National Championship.  This year they have already been blownout by Louisville and Duke in addition to a very disappointing loss to Evansville.  With games with Xavier, Stanford and Utah still looming Butler better learn how to play without Gordon Hayward quickly or else they may find themselves needing to win the Horizon's automatic bid in order to return to the Dance.






Cal - No one was expecting Mike Montgomery's troops to be a Final Four team this year, but they certainly were expected to earn a tourney invite.  The Bears have some major work to do in order to make that expectation a reality.  The low point came in the Old Spice Classic where they scored FIVE first half points en route to a humbling loss to Notre Dame.  They were also humbled in a 68-46 loss to Boston College (who has already dropped a game to Yale).

Perhaps no team better emphasises the tremendous balance and inconsistency across the national landscape than Cal.  Despite those two terribly played losses they do own impressive wins; a 25-point pasting of New Mexico and a 57-50 win over Temple.  Tonight's three point win over Iowa State isn't a huge deal, but they did show signs of coming out of their offensive coma and will get a huge opportunity to soften damage of the two losses Wednesday night when they host San Diego State.

Gonzaga - The Zags were underrated so long that they are now flirting with entering the territory of badly overrated.  Their is nothing embarrassing about losses to San Diego State, Illinois and Kansas State.  However at some point you have to beat some quality teams if you have intentions of  being perceived as quality yourself.  In accordance with their always daunting non-conference scheduling Gonzaga gets a few more cracks at it with games against Xavier, Washington State, Notre Dame, Baylor and Memphis.  Three losses in that bunch might put them in recently-unfamiliar territory; needing to win the WCC to earn entry to the tourney.

The Missouri Valley - For the past decade there has been good reason for the big boys to fear a visit from a member of the Valley.  Wichita State, Creighton and Northern Iowa have all had their fair share of giant-slaying glory including some memorable tourney runs.  With the way this early season has played out with every team dropping at least two games in addition to notching very few marquee wins, it is shaping up to be another one-bid season for the MVC.

Colorado - There was some growing sentiment before the season that standout sophomore Alex Burks and the Buffs could be a good sleeper team in the Big 12.  At 4-3 with losses to Georgia, San Fransisco and a sixteen point schelacking by Harvard, it seems sleeper might have been better termed sleeping.

Half Court Heaves:  Teams Worth Keeping an Eye On:

Cleveland State (10-0, but only quality opponent they face all year is South Florida.  Still they might be able to make things interesting for Butler in the Horizon)

Cincinnati (8-0) - Don't look now, but there is no reason the Bearcats shouldn't be 16-0 entering Big East play.

UCF (8-0) - The Knights opened some eyes with their win over Florida this week.  The Knights still have contests with Miami (FL) and UMass before entering play in the balanced Conference USA

Possible Tourney Teams as of Today:

Richmond, Temple, Dayton, Vanderbilt, Murray State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida, Marquette, Texas, Louisville, Maryland, UAB, Memphis, So. Miss, VCU, Old Dominion, George Mason, Drexel, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Miami (FL), Xavier, Northwestern, Kent State, BYU, New Mexico, Arizona, Washington State, Charleston, IPFW,

The Mighty Mastadons have only 2 losses, both close games with Xavier & Cincinnati

Point of Emphasis

When #1 Duke and #3 Kansas State take the floor tonight in Kansas City it will be the nation's first big-time anticipated matchup of the season.  Both squads will be still be adjusting to life without their All-American caliber point guards of 2009.  John Scheyer and Denis Clemente have both graduated and moved on, leaving big shoes to fill..  Splendid as Scheyer's senior campaign was, it is hard to argue either one more important to their team's success last season.  The difference between Duke and K-State is in how they have recovered from the point guard loss.

Kansas State has an interesting situation; the best point guard on their team is also their best scoring guard, the 'bearded' man of 'Fear the Beard' fame, Jacob Pullen.  Frank Martin's 'Cats have at times looked a little listless offensively, still struggling to find the right balance offensively, as well as balancing Pullen's minutes controlling and playing off the ball. 

Pete Gillen once famously quipped, in exasperation after another humbling defeat at the hands of the Blue Devils, "Duke is Duke."  It sounded better in his heavily affected NYC garble... But Gillen was certainly on to something.  It must be splendid for Coach K when you have the fortune of replacing your All-American point guard... with an All-American caliber point guard (freshman Kyrie Irving).  Irving has looked splendidly comfortable assuming the reigns of the Duke high-octane offense, freeing Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler up to inflict damage both shooting and slashing to the hoop.  The ball rarely touches the floor when the Devils get out on the break which leads to easy layups and wide open looks from behind the arc.  Kyrie Irving has been the engine amping up the Devils' potent attack.

Tonight we find out if he is ready to slide as effortlessly into Scheyer's role as he has made it look so far this season.

What Kansas State's inside players might lack in offensive refinement, they make up for with length and tremendous bounce.  It's a quick and explosive group of rebounders and defenders who have the ability to make life frustrating for the Blue Devils as they try to get out in transition.  They also have the potential to punish Duke on the offensive glass.  Good offensive rebounding is a panacea for a lot of ills, including a few turnovers or less-than-stellar perimeter shooting.  This game will serve as a nice test to find out if Mason Plumlee's huge strides of improvement are as truly long as they have appeared.

In the end, I think Duke is a better, and much more complete team.  Their tremendous ball pressure will be taxing for a K-State team still tinkering and experimenting to discover their primary ballhandler.  However, one BIG factor is tipping heavily in State's favor.  This game, while technically considered a "neutral" floor, will be anything but "neutral."  Tonight Kansas City will be comprised of a sea of purple, fans frothing at the opportunity to legitimize their place on the throne of college basketball's elite teams.  Both teams are ranked high.  Both teams have better than average chance at earning #1 seed come March.  But the game will just mean a little bit more to the Wildcats and their faithful.

After all, "Duke is Duke."

Tuesday's Quick Picks - February 2nd, 2010

It's not a huge slate of games today, but there are at least three worth tuning into.  The Maniac, much like seemingly every team in the country not named Kansas, is having some trouble these days on the road.  'On the Road" meaning my incessant insistence on picking road favorites.  The numbers are bearing that it just doesn't seem to be the way to go this season... that said, am I smart enough to heed my own researched advice??  (pause for crowd laughter)

On to tonight's fearless picks.

Did you hear John Wall and John Calipari aren't getting along?!?  I have a sly feeling that couples counseling can probably be averted and we can simply chalk it up to an 18-year old kid who has never been coached or disciplined pouting after his first EVER real loss.  Something tells me this one was only a story because some writers needed a story.  Oh, on a related note, this just in too, Dwight Freeney hurt his ankle and Peyton Manning is really good.  See?  It's been a slow sports week.

Tonight the Kentucky Wildcats take on a ranked opponent sans the cumbersome burden of the nation's #1 ranking.  Ole Miss is fatally devoid of an inside presence, which is especially troublsome considering UK has DeMarcus Cousins and Pat Patterson waiting for them at Rupp.  However, what Mississippi does have is one of the nation's better backcourts.  They are actually very similar to Kentucky and that both feautre a pair of lightning quick, offensive-minded, smallish guards who will dominate the ball.  (Not to blaspheme the Great Wall, but the two backcourts' stats are very similar)

I think this presents Wall and Bledsoe with an intersting look they haven't really faced yet this year.  I am curious how they respond, and think the results will be a little more even that Vegas anticipates.  I feel good that Kentucky wins at home, their presence on the boards creating second shots will be the difference.  However, I think Chris Warren and Terrico White give them a heckuva game for 35+ minutes.  Give me Ole Miss and the +12.

In ESPN's nightcap, we get Big Ten-undefeated Michigan State staking their perfect record at a place no one wins; the Kohl Center.  Michigan State is much more talented than Wisconsin.  They are as hot as any team in the country and are a legit #1 seed contender.  And they are getting two points!

Have I learned my lesson?  Stop picking road teams playing in places where the home team ALWAYS wins...

Nope.  Gimme Sparty and the two in a win that ends Wisconsin's hopes for Big Ten title, and severely hampers the hopes of resurgent pre-season fave Purdue.

For weeks I have been foreshadowing the late Northwestern bid-clinching surge... time to put my money where my mouth is tonight when they host Michigan.  And I gladly will.  Give me John Shurna and the Cats laying only one point in their home gym.

I'm going to keep breaking my own new rule and take one more road favorite tonight.  Kansas State is heading to Nebraska tonight in what has all the makings of an enormous let down game following the gut-wrenching OT loss to rival Kansas.  I don't think Frank Martin is going to let that happen though.  Gimme K-State laying four in a good win; not a sexy win, but the kind of win Top 4 seeds don't miss on.

MANIAC'S PICKS:

Ole Miss +12

Michigan State +2

Northwestern -1

Kansas State -4

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Moving and Shaking

Today is going to be filled with movers and shakers.  Movers; as into prime tourney position; and Shakers, teams whose footing is going to be shaky with a loss to say the least.

Here is a quick rundown of the biggest games of a packed Saturday.

Louisville @ West Virginia:  The Cards are 13-7, and a loss today would drop them to 13-8.  With nary a great win on their resume and looming blowout losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina, anything shy of a huge step-up game today leaves them in dire straights.  For the Mountaineers, a number one seed isn't out of the question, but they can't drop any more home games.  Especially to teams like the 'Ville.

Marquette @ Connecticut:   The Warriors are the textbook definition of a tough-luck ballclub, having lost three games in conference to Top 25 team in the final seconds.  Since the NCAA committee rarely looks at margin of loss, the biggest stat that matters right now is 12-8.   Connecticut is only one game better at 13-7, but has better non-conference wins (and losses) and a little more name cache (not that it is supposed to matter).  Interesting fact, Marquette is 0-5 on the road this season.  If that streak runs to six, it's time to kick some dirt on their grave.  However, should they win, the middle of the BEast gets intersting with both teams in a six or seven team scrum for likely two, possibly three bids.  It's a BIG game in Storrs (but let's hope the Huskie fans don't storm the court if they win...seriously...stay off the floor.)

Duke @ Georgetown:  Wow!  How often do we get an Elite Eight level non-conference game this late in the year?  Not very often, so enjoy it.  The winner puts a HUGE chip in their pile and stays on track for a #1 or #2 seed.  Duke loses less with a loss since its a true road game.  If the Hoyas lose, it has them trending towards a 4/5 seed.  Neither team is crippled with a loss, but still a fantastic game worth tuning in to.

Oklahoma St. @ Missouri:  A HUGE battle for 4th place in the Big 12 (and with K-State at Kansas tonight, perhaps even third place...).  Both teams have been pleasantly surprising this year, easily outpacing Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  OK State is 16-4, Mizzou stands at 15-5, and they are tied in conference play.  This game gives the winner a huge leg up in getting to the Dance.

Baylor @ Texas:  Put Baylor in the category with the two teams above; pleasantly surprising.  Texas is still a beast - don't let the recent slide fool you.  They are still in line for a possible #1 seed...unless Baylor clips them on the road.  A win like this one would likely have Scott Drew's Bears on the right side of the bubble come March.


Vanderbilt @ Kentucky:  Forget the subplot lines; Kentucky rebounding from their first loss, Vandy trying to stay hot, etc.  This game is for the lead in the SEC East.  If Vandy nips the Cats, they would open up a two game conference lead and have already beaten Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina on the road.  Doesn't that sound like the resume of a Top 2 seed??  Not saying ANY of that will happen, but today's game is bigger than it looks on paper (and in the AP polls).


Harvard @ Cornell:  Forget the hyperbole for all the games I scrawled above about getting in or not making the tournament.  The most important game of the day is happening on the campus of the Cornell Red.  The Ivy League is the only league that refuses to play a conference tournament, meaning the regular season winner gets the league's tourney bid.  I have read a few columns that suggested the Red would earn an at-large bid should they falter to the Crimson.  Don't believe that for a second!  Sentimentality aside, their signature "win" is a close loss to Kansas.  If that's what you are looking for, give Charlie Weiss and extension at Notre Dame.  This game is do-or-die, and probably the best game in the country tomorrow.  Of course, unless you live on campus at Cornell, I don't think you'll be able to see it...just check back here for the coverage...


Northwestern @ Michigan State:  Many people on TV and radio suggested the Wildcats need this game to have any chance at the tourney (not true - as my loyal readers know) BUT if they can repeat last year's surprising win at Sparty it does put a HUGE chip in their pile for earning their first ever NCAA bid.  That said, don't dispair when Sparty hammers them.


Kansas @ Kansas State:  The Maniac was one of many who praised the KSU students for staying OFF the court after beating then-number one Texas.  Drop now #1 Kansas?  Have at it guys, have at it.  And while you are at it, dodge the subsequent let down game and you have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 and earning a #2 seed.  For KU, a win here puts them back atop the polls and has them trending towards the #1 overall seed in the tournament.

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Two Favorites for the Road

As of this morning, the Maniac sits a pleasant ten games over .500 ATS on the season picks.  Here's two quickies.  Syracuse heads to Notre Dame where the Irish have been tough.  So tough they've lost to Loyola Marymount and Northwestern.  I think Syracuse zones 'em up, and forces someone other than Harangody to beat them... and I'm not sure who can fit that bill.  I like the 'Cuse laying the 3.

In the late game on ESPN, Texas gets yet another huge test when they travel to Manhattan to face the Wildcats.  K-State has been good this year, and has a really solid ballclub.  However, there is just something about Damion James, Avery Bradley and this year's Longhorn squad that ramps it up a notch for the big games.  I like the Horns depth to wear them out down the stretch and grab another big win.  Don't be surprised though if the Wildcats lead early and most of the second half.

Interesting fact to store for March:  The Horns' best distributor and defensive guard Dogas Balbay was shooting 48% from the line heading into Saturday's A&M game.  Forty Eight Percent.  From your point guard and primary ball handler.  That HAS to be a concern for March... but I still like the Horns tonight.

MANIAC'S PICKS:

Syracuse - 3

Texas -1.5

A New Year of Bracketeering - Jan 8th, 2010

The calendar has turned and we bravely embark on a new decade of Bracketeering. First off - a big thanks to all our readers, you are growing in numbers and pretty soon the Maniac has a feeling that relatives will no longer control the majority of our audeince... goodtimes indeed.

For our neophytes, a quick synopsis of the methodology employed here: 1. We do not care about the AP and coaches poll, wins and losses do not move you up or down a prescribed number of slots. 2. We do our best to weigh both performance, but also a little predictive nature as well, meaning not just what you have done, but also waht our eyes tell us you can do. 3. You are welcome to piss, moan and complain about our rankings. We enjoy the emails, and have learned several new creatives profanities from you. So, Mazel Tov, and Happy New Year.

Enjoy the decade's first edition of Bracketeering.

FINAL FOUR:

1. Texas - I definitely flirted with dropping the Horns this week after a few somnambulistic performances against UT Corpus Christi and Arkansas. However, don't most good team go through a few little lulls here and there, especially in games against lesser competition? What I do know is that when the big boys came to play, the Horns beat 'em by double digits. They win a lot of games late, if for no other reason than they have tremendous depth. The general fan is more familiar with the names on Kansas and Kentucky's rosters, but the Horns are ten deep, athletic and balanced. For now - they keep our top slot once again.

2. Kansas - Some people will overreact to the close call at home against Cornell, but not us. The Red are good. Even better? The stern test of the Jayhawks before the rigors of confere4nce play commence. It has been a long time since they were tested. It is good to find out who your Alpha Dog is before everything is on the line in March. And if there was any doubt, there is no longer. It's Sherron Collins. His numbers aren't spectacular; and therein lies his greatest strength on my POY ballot. He is assimilating all the talent available with aplomb, and gives them everything you want from a PG who will be contending for a National Title. So, yeah, I've come around on Collins.

Oh, and the dismantling of a good Temple team on the road was as brilliant as a team has played this year. Not this team. Any team.

3. Purdue - I'm starting to really love this team. They share the ball better than any team in the nation, and remind me a lot of the 2006-2007 Gator squad. They have good players with clearly, and perfectly defined roles. They have NBA talent with Johnson, Hummel and E'Twan Moore. They have the best glue guy in country in Chris Kramer and have a functional bench. They are not more talented per se than our #4 team, but gut instict tells me they are a little better as a team.

This is a huge "show me" stretch coming up for the Boilers with a trip to the Kohl Center tomorrow (where the Badgers have already beaten Duke) and a visit from the once again Evan Turner-led Buckeyes on Tuesday. Win both? Final Four talk has to heat up beyond Boiling in West Lafayette.

4. Kentucky - Fourth? Last week I have them #2, they handle Louisville, I write a "Run the Table" column...and now drop them to fourth? It's not an indictment of the Cats, it's simply that Kansas and Purdue looked brilliant the past week, and the Cats are still a little more potential than polish. That said, with Wall and Cousins blossoming more every week, it is getting harder and harder to see this team not making the short drive to Indy this April. Think there'd be a few Cat fans there??

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Duke - I'm getting less and less gun shy about my take on the Devils everytime I see them play...but still have an ounce of trepidation after the way they eveaporated in conference play and the tourney. That said, they are number 5...and then there is a drop. I'd be comfortable with them in the Final Five is such a thing existed.

Is there a classier act in college hoops than Coach K? The Dukies played a neutral court game with Iowa State in their annual tradition of bringing a game to a veteran player's hometown to play in front of friends and family. This time, John Scheyer did not disappoint, playing brilliantly and continuing his surprising First Team All-American campaign (and yes, he would have my vote once my ballot arrives....waiting...hmmm....)

6. Syracuse - Perhaps the loss to Pitt wasn't so bad in retrospect? We'll know more in a few weeks. What I do know, is that aside from that blip (where I thought Pitt just caught fire from behind the arc against the zone), they've looked like a Final Four caliber team. Great guard play, an All-American swingman in Wesley Johnson and some bangers underneath. Still love this team, and the bounce back win over Memphis shows me they are mentally tough as well.

7. West Virginia - Losing to Purdue is not a big deal. They should have lost to Marquette, but didn't. That said, this team has loads of talent and is dangerous. They are seventh, but I think I'd prefer to have them eighth, and leave the seventh slot open. There is that clear of a gap between the Top Six so far this season and the rest of the pack. Let's see if the 'Eers can maintain their focus and win two they should (Notre Dame and USF) before hosting Syracuse next weekend.

8.Kansas State - The Wildcats are just kind of hovering for the time being. I'm not sure they are the 8th best team in the country but am looking forward to getting a read on them this weekend with a trip to Missouri and a Tuesday visit from Texas A&M. Oh, and there's a little trip from Texas next weekend as well...

Sweet and lurking: The next tier

9. Michigan State - Is the run starting? It usually comes around February, until next thing you know, the Spartans are the dangerous #2 seed no one wants in their Region. The difference this year? They were as high as #2 in many national polls until a few early losses knocked them off the radar. The solid win over Wisconsin was impressive. Although there are no "gimmes" in the Big Ten (save for Iowa) their next seven games are all realistically "should wins" with the possible exception of a trip to Minnesota. Expect the Spartans to be right in the thivk of the Big Ten race when an exciting pair of games with Purdue rolls around this February.

10. Ole Miss - Maybe a little high considering the two losses are to upper echelon Big East teams, Villanova and West Virginia, which could suggest they are not a top tier team. Their inside play is uneven at best and not always pretty to watch. However, the old axiom that guard play wins in the tourney bodes well for Ole Miss who boasts the most underrated backcourt in the country.

11. Villanova - Wow, it seems like the #11 hole is where we weekly bury the upcoming prospects of some unsuspecting mid-major. Last edition we offered Temple up to the basketball Gods, only to have them sacrificed on the Jayhawks alter. This week, we flirted with a few of our mid-major darlings, but were compelled to concede the spot belongs to Villanova. I think it is becoming my silent accidental bias, but I am just never sold on these guys, despite the tourney success every year with Scottie Reynolds and Jay Wright. I am curious to see how they handle a visit from tough luck 1-2 Marquette and their trip to Louisville on Tuesday.

12. Connecticut - They have three losses by a combined total of fourteen points. The losses: Duke, Kentucky and at Cincinnati. They have a few holes, but much like Carolina I would be fearful of this team in March. They have one of the highest ceilings of any Big East team.

13. Northern Iowa - Yeah, I'm aware they are unranked in the polls. That's because most voters don't realize that good basketball happens outside the Big Six conferences, Memphis and Gonzaga. The Missouri Valley is consistently incredibly balanced and good. The Panthers are 4-0 in league play with wins over three of the top challengers (all by comfortable margins); Southern Illinois, Creighton and Missouri State. They have a tricky trip to Illinois State tomorrow (which I have probably effectively hexed them in...)

14. Wake Forest - I'm not sure why we all collectively forgot about the Deac's heading into this season. Sure, they miss early entries Johnson and Teague, but still have All-American candidate Al-Farouq Aminu dominating the paint. Admittedly this spot could have just as easily gone to Miami, Florida State, North Carolina (who I refuse to give up on!) and possibly even Virginia Tech. However, I give Wake the nod after completing a month without a loss that included wins over Gonzaga, NC State, Richmond and Xavier.

The Demon Deacons have a tough stretch with a trip to Miami tomorrow, a visit from Maryland Tuesday, then consecutive trips to Durham and Chapel Hill.

So in all likliehood, we have also put a well-timed hex on Wake! That said, go 2-2, and life is fine. Emerge 3-1 and this spot is more than well earned; it's too low.

15. Gonzaga - We are officially absolving them for the Duke disaster, figuring they are not the first or the last team to get humiliated on a bad day against the Dukies. They followed it up by winning at Oklahoma and at Illinois. Let's see how they handle the next, and most difficult remaining, stretch of the season: AT Portland tomorrow, AT St Mary's on Tuesday and AT San Diego next weekend. Win those three and they grab the improved WCC by the throat and can begin focusing on earning a Top 4 seed for March. Goodness knows they've played the schedule to merit it.

16. Rhode Island - Last week we honored USC with our final slot. They rewarded us by sacrificing their hoops program to save Pete Carrol's Golden Goose and banned themselves from post season play. So from here on in, they are similarly banned from Bracketeering. If you aren't going to the Big Dance, then just go away.

This edition's beneficiary? How about the Rams? They are 12-1, and are playing in the Nation's sixth best conference. Yes, the A-10 is clearly better than the Pac-10. Get over it BCS honks.

This Sunday's Temple v. Rhode Island game is one of the first real gems of many in A-10 conference play. After Temple, they get a few easier tests before back-to-back roadies at Xavier and Dayton to end Januaury. By then we'll have a pretty good read on how the A-10 is going to shake out. For now, we give the Rams the nod, but acknowledge Temple, Dayton and Xavier could all win the league, and expect some pressure from Richmond and maybe even Charlotte and George Washington.


Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Cal is a disaster, I've all but given up on the Bears. Oklahoma is approaching that status as well. Seton Hall seemed formidable but is 0-3 in BEast play and is certainly on the ropes. Xavier is disappointing at 9-5, but have taken very few bad losses. They are a 4 or 5 game win streak away from being relevant again. Butler is not in terrible shape, but needs to win their league more than they have in year's past after an unimpressive and uneven non-conference performance.

Is it fair to label Portland a disappointment? Consider that if not for an avalanche of early attention from beating UCLA (who we now know sucks out loud), and a injury/suspension ridden Minnesota team, would anyone have really cared much about the Pilots? Either way, after expectations heightened they responded with losses to Portland State, Idaho, Washington and Nevada. They are not an at-large team anymore, and will need to upset Gonzaga tomorrow to have any life left in their fading chances.

It isn't fair to label these two teams a bust, but I am sure Northwestern and Ohio State were hoping for better conference starts. The good news for Ohio State is Evan Turner's back in plenty of time to save the season. Unfortunately for NW, Kevin Coble is nowhere in sight and things are looking bleak for ending the most famous tourney drought in the country.

Half Court Heaves: Teams outside the common radar worth keeping an eye on
I usually just list the teams you may not have heard of, this week we include a few more teams from power conferences that have a good chance to contend for a bid. My near-locks are bolded. Teams that are strong enough that they could mess things up by losing the conference tourney and swiping a possible at-large are italicized.

Miami, Florida State, Pitt, Louisville, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Vermont, Richmond, Xavier, Dayton, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northern Colorado, Denver, Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Coastal Carliona, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, William & Mary, Old Dominion, UAB, Tulsa, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Harvard, Siena, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Murray State, Washington, Washington State, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Western Carolina, Texas San-Antonio, St. Mary's, Louisiana Tech (though very doubtful they snag an at-large judging by historical WAC results)

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New Year's Conference Resolutions: Big Twelve

Here's the second of ten conference installments of some New Year's Resolutions and Prognostications. As always, your dissension is welcomed...

BIG Twelve:

The Big Twelve came into the year as our Playboy Award candidate (conference heaviest up top with a lot of airbrushing below), with Kansas and Texas clearly being a notch above everyone else and quite possibly above the rest of the country.

Having two dominant superpowers rule the roost isn't necessarily a bad thing; see Duke and UNC in the ACC. However, the question loomed, is there any depth beyond the Big Two in this year's Big 12? So far this season, it has looked like there certainly is, and there might possibly be a few Sweet 16 caliber teams lurking around.

Kansas State has to be one of the most pleasant surprises in 2009, racing out to an impressive 12-1 start with wins over Xavier, UNLV, Dayton and Washington State. Baylor has also looked better than expected and should contend for a bid.

Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have amassed some early wins as well and should contend for a bid...though we're not quite ready to label them tourney bound just yet. The only glaring dissapointment thus far has been Oklahoma. We knew there would be an adjustment perios without Blake and Taylor Griffin, but felt confident Willie Warren would be able to hold the rope (particularly with "Tiny" Gallon anchoring it...) So far? Not so good. Not good at all.

Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:

The Good:
Texas looks fantastic, and we have felt solid having them at the top spot in Bracketeering from the season's outset. The 76-70 sleep-walk today against TX-Corpus Christi is understandable; their two games prior were wins over UNC and Michigan State. A letdown was inevitable. Rick Barnes has a few weeks to get them geared up for back-to-backers at Kansas State and at UConn.

Kansas is good. OK, Kansas is real good. After watching them dismantle Temple on the road toady I'm ready to concede this is probably the best team in the country. They have no holes. Sherron Collins is distributing the ball and running the team flawlessly. Xavier Henry is truly playing the "Grant Hill 1991" role on this team. Watching his poise, intelligence fused with blinding athleticism and a feathery touch on the mid range jumper... to me the comparison is accurate and uncanny. Throw in the best back-to-the-basket center in the nation in Alderich and it isn't unreasonable to think they will be unbeaten when the Feb. 8th date with Texas comes rolling around.

Win that one? Yeah...it does get intriguing...

Kansas State is not just good. They are Sweet Sixteen caliber legit. It is tough to put them in a category with the two above, but they seem like tourney locks barring a complete collapse and deserve the separation from the pack..

The Unknown:
Here is where things get a little dicey in the Big 12. Early season performance would seem to merit five to seven (high side) bids come March. The above three are locks. Here's how The Maniac sees it playing out for the remaining bids.

I like the talent and chemistry Scott Drew has working down in Baylor. In 2007 they were the conference's darlings, making an improbable return to respectability and the NCAA tourney. Last year they disappointed under heightened expectations and we were forced to wonder just where this program truly stood. An 11-1 start with wins over Xavier, South Carolina and Arizona State is a good indication the ceiling is high. They have solid guard play with Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn and Udoh gives them a nice presence in the paint. I think Baylor returns to the dance, but it will be an interesting ride.

My conference sleeper is Missouri. Little was expected of the Tigers after losing DeMarre Carroll and three other starters from last year's Elite Eight squad. However, the Tigers are entering league play at 11-3 with some impressive wins under their belt: Old Dominion. Illinois by 13. Georgia by 28. Oregon by 37. Not just the wins, but the margins tell me that the Tigers frenetic style can still be effective, even with personal changes. They are a surprising threat to get back to the NCAA Tournament.

Okahoma State and Texas Tech are the toughest reads. Both have very good records that would likely get them tourney consideration with .500 conference seasons. However, I just don't think either is quite good enough to get on the other side of the bubble. Texas Tech's best win is Washington. Their only other decent win is Stanford. They've lost to Wichita State by 2 and failed their big litmus test last week losing to New Mexico by 15. More troubling is the struggles they've had with team's they are supposed to beat; Oregon State by 4, Stephen F. Austin by 2, McNeese State by one... they just don't seem ready for Big 12 rigors to me.

Ditto for Oklahoma State. Their best win is a 1-pointer over Stanford and a win over a down Utah team. They've lost to the two best teams they've faced; Rhode Island and Tulsa. Exactly the teams they'll be on the Big Board against when the committee has to decide whether to invite a fifth or sixth Big 12 team or reward one of the "have-nots." Those losses tip the scales undeniably in the opposite direction for the 'Pokes.

If a sixth team does get in, I like Texas A&M. The Aggies have slipped off the radar the past few weeks after losses at Washington and New Mexico (by 3- no shame in that loss). They do already own wins over Clemson and Minnesota, two teams that could very likely find themselves in a similar spot come March; 18-19 wins, fifth or sixth place in a power league. Those are good chips in the Ag's favor. They get Texas only once this year and get to host that game in late February. A win over the Horns could punch their dance card.

Oklahoma stays in the "unknown" category, simply because it is still too early to completely write them off. Willie Warren has struggled and it appears as though Jeff Capel is struggling with what to do with the talented Soph. They got hammered on New Year's by Gonzaga in yet another no-show against a quality opponent. They got waxed by VCU, and have losses to UTEP, Houston and San Diego - each more difficult to explain in ascending order. The 1-point win over Northern Colorado and the squeaker with Utah don't inspire much confidence either.

So why are they still above the Maniac's cut line? They still have NBA-level talent; particularly in Warren. And because other than trips to Lawrence and Austin there isn't a game they can't win on that schedule. 10-6 in the Big 12 gets you dancing. It's possible for the Sooners. But they better get it together. And Soon...

Iowa State - Of all the teams near the bottom group, this one is the most disappointing. With Craig Brackens surprising draft experts and deciding to come back to school, some optimism that the Cyclones could return to the tourney for the first time since Tim Floyd had Marcus Fizer and Jamaal Tinsley (and one of the Maniac's faves, Paul Shirley) in uniform began to arise. Three losses in a row dampened things a bid, but when the smoke clears losing to Northwestern (by 2), Northern Iowa (by 3) and at Cal aren't terrible losses. The schedule gives them an opportunity for redemption with a trip to Cameron Indoor and the Dukies...but it is just as likely a stern national showing of how NIT-at-best the 'Clones are in 2010. For the same reason as above with the Sooners, they stay above the cut-line, but they are a distant 10th in my estimation - a true long shot.


The BAD:

Colorado has always seemed a sleeping giant to me. Unfortunately no one woke them up again this year. Perhaps Chauncey Billups has a year of eligibility hiding somewhere... They showed a little fight early, hanging real tough with Gonzaga and Arizona over in Maui. Since then they have been blasted by 15 by Colorado State and by 25 at Tulsa. There is a good chance they are no better than the third or fourth best team in a basketball-light state (Northen Colorado and Denver).

Nebraska seems to pile 10 or 11 non-conference wins up every year. Just enough to keep them in that "if they win 4 of their last 5 they have a bubble shot" discussion every year. We;re not falling for it. They have two solid wins; USC and Tulsa. As a matter of fact, glancing over their resume, I get the feeling if they could just squeeze eight wins out in conference play....

Ah, forget it.

Final Score:
Texas and Kansas are #1 seeds in March. I just can't see anyone closing the gap enough to push either of them out. Kansas State feels like a Top 4 seed as well, and definitely no worse than a solid tourney team. This is the only conference in the country with two legit national champion contenders (Yes, the Big Ten and Big East could. But No one in the stratosphere of KU and UT though.)

It will be a rocky ride on the bubble all year in the middle of the pack. Like many conferences of this high caliber, parity will smack around the pack. That said, I like Baylor, Missouri and A&M to dance. Oklahoma is still a quality sleeper to watch and Oklahoma State and Texas Tech should get in if the can stay north of .500. In doing that, they'd knock off one of the other's above.

The Big 12 should factor no worse than the 4th best RPI conference overall, and most likely Texas and Kansas should push them to #2 or #3. That should be good enough for 6 bids in March, though seven isn't out of the question.

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