Five Teams - Impressive Early-Season Surprises

Duke looked fantastic over in Maui, capturing yet another title over on the Island, and looking sensational taking down three straight tough opponents in as many days.  Then last night, Ohio State looked even more impressive, taking that same Duke team behind the woodshed and reminded everyone what Arizona looked like in last season's NCAA Tournament.

Impressive?  Yes.   Surprising that these teams have had some early season success?  Certainly not.

Here's five teams who are making a name for themselves the hard way this November; unexpectedly.


#1 - Harvard Crimson - It appears Tommy Amaker has his team poised to make a run to the NCAA Tournament this season, and might not even need the Ivy League's automatic bid to do it.  They are 6-0 with wins over UCF and Florida State over in the Bahamas last weekend, and a win over Loyola Marymount, that is looking better and better as the Lions stack up wins (over UCLA, then last night over #25 and Maniac early-darling, St. Louis).  A December tilt with UConn could be the only stumbling block to entering Ivy play with a legit shot to run the table...

#2 - Indiana Hoosiers - See the previous column, but Tom Crean's bunch appear to have IU back on the verge of re-joining national relevance.  We still have yet to see them face a true Top 25 opponent, but at 7-0 after a 12-20 (3-15 in conference) season, it's one heck of a start.

#3 - Virginia Cavaliers - Another team that has yet to really extend themselves, but at 6-1 fresh off a pasting of a Michigan team that handled Memphis and pushed Duke, Cav fans have to like their chances of fighting for third in the middle of a muddled ACC.

#4 - San Diego State Aztecs - UNLV will garner all the MWC acclaim after knocking off North Carolina, but the most impressive team out West has been Steve Fischer's Aztecs.  This was supposed to be a rebuilding year after Kawhi Leonard departed early for the NBA.  At 7-1 (and leading Creighton in the second half at the time of writing) with wins over Long Beach State, Arizona and USC, as well as a respectable road loss at Baylor, this has the look of a sure-fire NCAA Tourney team.

#5 - Oregon State Beavers - The Beavers are 5-1, but only 1-1 in games against real opponents.  However, their 100-95 OT win over Texas was impressive.  Their most impressive outing was a 64-62 loss to a good Vanderbilt team.  Craig Roberson's team is going to be a tough out in the Pac 12 and have the potential to sneak up as a bubble at-large team in March.  They won't have much on the out of conference resume, but have 18 games in a balanced Pac 12 to fight to 9-9 or 10-8.

Hoos' Returning to the Dance?

  The Hoos-iers, that's who.

After a thrilling and well played game in Raleigh, Mark Crean's squad moved to a perfect 7-0 that also includes a win over Butler.  The Big Ten is solid this year, and IU is not in the class of Ohio State and Wisconsin; but Indiana is a legit contender for an at-large tourney bid this year.

Freshman Cody Zeller gives them an offensive interior presence that they have lacked for several years, and Verdell Jones is a legitimate All Big Ten caliber performer.  They have more strength (evidence of Tom Crean's off-season weight room challenge paying dividends) and depth than they have since the coach's arrival.  Now that they have a per-conference schedule that finally includes some quality (though granted nothing eye-popping yet) wins, if they can battle to 8-10 or 9-9 in a very balanced Big Ten, it should be enough to get Indiana back where Hoosier faithful expect them to be; the NCAA Tournament.

The Maniac's Big Ten Early Bracketeering Glance:

LOCKS:  Ohio State, Wisconsin
IN:  Michigan State
GOOD SHOT:  Michigan, Purdue, Northwestern (yes, seriously this time), Indiana
GREAT SO FAR... BUT INJURY CONCERNS:  Minnesota
POSSIBLE:  Illinois,
Uh... NO:  Penn State, Nebraska, Iowa

Three Picks for November 27th

What an interesting weekend in college hoops.  Both Connecticut and Florida State get dropped by unranked non-BCS opponents; UCF and Harvard respectively, and then last night everybody's #1 (except marchmanics) North Carlina gets ambushed by UNLV out in the desert.

It takes a little of the shine off North Carolina's upcoming gauntlet week of Wisconsin and Kentucky, but it certainly doesn't make either matchup any less compelling.  Wisconsin's ability to defend and control tempo with Jordan Taylor quarterbacking is going to make for a fascinating ballgame Wednesday night...

While we wait for a week that is loaded with Final Four caliber matchups (don't forget Duke v Ohio State Tuesday night), let's continue to push forward on the Maniac's 8-3 start against the spread in 2011 with three more picks.

Butler @ Indiana -13

Vegas is smart.  Really smart.  Despite the Maniac's consistent ability to get the better of them, there is no denying that the handicapping prowess and ability to unbiasedly asses teams and match-ups is staggering.  That is all you need to know about how much better this Indiana team is than most people realize.  Butler is down this season, but they aren't awful.  IU has finished below .500 since Tom Crean's arrival in 2008.  This is the season they finally get the postseason berth.  The only question is whether it is the NCAA or NIT.

My wager is the Big Dance.  A solid win tonight will go a long way to building their resume, as despite the unblemished record, there is very little to brag about win-wise thus far.  This will be a nice quality win for the Big Board come Selection Sunday.

That said; -13 is a lot of points for a team that hasn't tasted the sweet nectar of big wins too often lately.  I think the Hoosiers remain perfect tonight, but find it hard to believe it will be as easy as a -13 line suggests.

Maniac's Pick:  Butler +13

Oklahoma vs. St. Louis -4.5

The Maniac has looked pretty smart thus far since going way, way out on a limb and throwing Rick Majerius's Billlikens at #16 if the first installment of Bracketeering.  Tonight, they validate my faith.  Oklahoma is improved, but still not an upper tier Big 12 team in 2012.  St. Louis on the other hand has the makings of an NCAA Tournament team.

St. Louis is an excellent perimeter shooting team, and much like Duke stylistically, is unafraid to let them fly in transition or as a component of the secondary break.  They routed Villanova two days ago on the strength of 14 of 27 shooting from behind the arc.  If they get a similar shooting performance today, expect a similarly easy victory.

Maniac's Pick:  St. Louis Billikens -4.5

Virginia Commonwealth @ Alabama -15

Wow, this line is huge.  That tells me Vegas is well aware that Alabama might be more of a top ten caliber team than the writers and pundits thought several weeks ago.  It also tells me that they are smart enough to realize that three brilliant weeks in March last season does not a powerhouse program make.  There is a wide discrepancy in talent between these two ballclubs.

However, sometimes familiarity breeds comfort and success.  I think VCU has an interesting edge tonight facing former coach Anthony Grant, who led the Rams to some success before leaving for Alabama and handing the reigns to Shaka Smart.  The familiarity level should have helped the Rams prepare for the frenzied defensive pressure the Crimson Tide employs.

It won't make them athletic enough to handle 'Bama on the boards, but should help them control the tempo enough to keep things respectable.

I like VCU to hang around and cover narrowly.

Maniac's Pick:  Virginia Commonwealth +15