Early Highs & Lows

As the saying goes, You can't win 'em all. Especially when you are the big boy on the block with a big target on your back for most of your non-conference games as smaller schools ramp up for one of the precious few chances to get some national attention.  Every year several mid or low majors jump up and pick off one of the big boys, and just a short week into the season, this year is proving no exception.

Here's a quick rundown of what you might have missed in the opening week; five teams that have underwhelmed and a few more that have impressed.  With about a half-dozen preseason tournaments going on this weekend, this list is sure to grow rapidly.  The Maniac will provide another solid recap on Monday, as well as issuing some "Upset Alerts" for this weekend, so be sure to check back tonight and tomorrow

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Five Underwhelmers:

1.  Boston College - When you lose at home to Yale, you immediately earn the top spot on our ignominious list.  With dates with Texas A&M, Indiana and Providence looming, the Eagles better straighten up and fly right in a hurry or this season could get ugly.

2.  LSU -  It seems like the Tigers seem to find their way into the Maniac's doghouse every Winter.  Usually it's for their dreadful non-conference schedule.  This year, it's for their dreadful schedule AND getting blasted at home by Nichols State.  This Sunday's date with Memphis will be a good indication as to whether it was just a rough night or the start of a rough season.


3.  Wake Forest - Perhaps no team in the country has been hit harder by early NBA entrants than the Deacons.  Kentucky may have lost more players, but at least there it is sort of expected.  It's also far easier to reload in the Bluegrass than it is in the pale shadow of Duke and UNC.  It's an excuse for the Deacons to be down this season.  It's not an excuse for opening with a home loss to Atlantic Sun also-ran Stetson .  Following it up with a 90-69 drubbing, again at home, to Virginia Commonwealth has it looking like Wake could be near the bottom of a down ACC.

4.  Xavier - How does a 2-0 team make this list?  Easy if you have caught any of their first two home games.  The season opened with a comeback three point win over Western Michigan.  Two night ago they needed overtime to tackle the mighty Mastadons of IPFW.  Xavier may not technically be in a "power" conference, however being the only team in the country aside from Michigan State to earn a spot in the last three Sweet Sixteens lends for "power" conference expectations.  Their first two contests didn't meet them.

With one of the nation's toughest non-conference schedules (Wofford, Iowa, Butler, Gonzaga, Georgia, LSU, Cincinnati and Wake Forest - plus possible meetings with either Old Dominion/Clemson or Seton Hall/Alabama) the Muskies better see some improvement quickly or it could be more than their Sweet 16 streak in jeopardy, it could be their tourney appearance streak as well...


5.  South Florida - Last year the Bulls became media darlings of sorts as they made a daring run towards the NCAA Tournament despite being projected 14th or 15th in preseason BEast coaches polls.  The Bulls came up just short, but entered this season with high expectations, despite Dominique James leaving early for the NBA.  With losses to Southern Miss and UCF, the Bulls are not only digging a nearly-impossible to climb out of ditch, they would also be in last place in Conference USA.

And a Few Pleasant Surprises...

*  Gardner Webb - Yes, they got boat raced down in Tallahassee, but the opening win over Charlotte was impressive.  With upcoming dates with Michigan, Oklahoma, Arizona State and Louisville the Bulldogs will get a few more chances to add another profile win.  Don't laugh, one of those wins could be the difference between a #13 and a virtually unwinnable #15 or #16 seed in March.

*  Georgia - Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee enter the season ranked and Vanderbilt is considered a fringe tournament team by most.  However, don't sleep on Georgia in the slightly overrated SEC East.  Their win over Colorado is a better win that it appears at first blush, and the 'Dawgs handled them with relative ease.  A Thanksgiving date with Notre Dame and early December hookups with Georgia Tech and UAB will give the 'Dawgs a chance to build a solid profile before conference play.

*  South Dakota State - 3-0 with a road win at Iowa is an encouraging start for the Jackrabbits (yes, that's really their mascot).  They'll get two more shots; hosting Nevada and visiting Minnesota.  They'll get some stiff competition from Oral Roberts and IUPUI (and possibly Oakland) in the Summit league, but early season BCS-conference wins are what keep low majors off that 15/16 line come March.

*  St Mary's - They've played two non D-1 throwaways, but the 76-71 win over an improved St John's squad could be a nice chip to pile in March.  Omar Samham is gone, but don't make the mistake of overlooking the Gaels.  They'll get their chance on December 1st to do something conference rival Gonzaga could not; beat San Diego State.

*  San Diego State - Speaking of which, the Aztecs might be the best mid-major in the country this season.  Their road win in the Kennel is as impressive a win as a team has notched so far in this young season.  If "best" seems like hyperbole, it isn't.  They have to be considered no worse than co-favorite with BYU to win the Mountain West, and appear to be ahead of Gonzaga, Memphis, Xavier, Butler and the other usual suspects.

And the recap wouldn't be complete without a tip of the beanie to the Yale Bulldogs, despite losses to Quinnipiac and Providence, they were still able to go into Chestnut Hill and pull off the stunner. 

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Big East Bubble Talk

Here's a quick outlook on what it is going to take to get in for the Big East's crowded bubble.

Pitt (18-6, 7-4):  It is probably disingenuous to place Pitt on the "bubble" list.  They are not on the bubble.  But they could be soon.

I place them here simply to illustrate they are not quite a 100% lock yet.  Their non-conference play gives them a win over Wichita State balanced by a loss to Indiana.  So basically their non-conference is every bit as barren as Louisville and Notre Dame's ballyhooed blank slates.  Their next four games are: WVU, @Marquette, Villanova, @ Notre Dame.  It isn't unfathomable they lose all four of those games.  IF they do, they are on a precarious bubble.  The should win the two final games hosting Providence and Rutgers.  I'm not suggesting they won't; just saying they might need to.

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 80%

Louisville (15-9, 6-5):  Can you say BRUTAL?  That's the only word to describe tonight's double digit loss to St. John's.  They sport losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte (both at home).  Their best non-conference win is Arkansas back when they had eight players in November (they also have losses to UNLV and Kentucky).

Down the stretch, with the exception of DePaul their other six games provide opportunities for quality wins; Syracuse twice, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette and UConn.  The god news is they get the first three in Freedom Hall.  The bad news?  What about the Cards effort tonight says they can win any of those big games?  Especially when they likely need to win three of those six (an of course DePaul).
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Maniac's Tourney Odds: 50%

Notre Dame (17-8, 6-6):  Same story as the first three, terrible non-conference with NO quality wins and two losses to Northwestern and Loyola Marymount.  Their final six games are: ST. John's, @Louisville, @Georgetown, Pitt, UConn, @Marquette.

On the bright side Brian Kelley will unveil his inagural squad at Spring Practice in just a few weeks..

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 10%

Marquette (15-8, 6-5):  I find Marquette to be the most interesting case in the board.  They are a few buckets away from being in the lock category.  That said, their RPI is in the 60's and they have some significant work to get in the Dance.  I think they have a good shot.  They finish with: USF, Louisville, Pitt and ND at home, and trips to Cincy, St. John's and Seton Hall.  None of those seven are gimmes, none are impossible, or even unlikely.  I think they go 4-3 down the stretch, get to 10-8 and ride non-conference wins over Xavier and Michigan (who was playing well at the time), as well as the positive sentiment of losses by TWO OR LESS to: Villanova TWICE, Florida State, and West Virginia to a solid #10 seed.

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 60%


South Florida (15-8, 5-6):  Who'da thunk we'd have them on the list ahead of UConn??  It's an uphill battle for the Bulls, but they have a real shot.  Once Gilchrist comes back, he and Dominique Jones give them a 1-2 punch better than any team in the league outside of the Big Four.  They close with home games against St John's, Cincinnati, Providence and UConn.  They travel to Marquette, Villanova and DePaul.  Realistically, if they win three of four at home, and just beat DePaul on the road they get to .500 in conference.  They will have a road win over Georgetown (something Villanova and Duke looked pathetic attempting) as well as anon-conference win over Virginia.

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 40%

In all probability they need to either sweep the four home games, or steal a win at Nova or Marquette to feel safe, but I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility.  This team is honestly in the mix for most talented team on this entire list.  No joke.

Cincinnati (14-9, 5-6):  What happened here?  The tourney seemed a lock after finishing non-conference play with a should-have-won against Gonzaga to go with wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland and a thrilling win over UConn to open conference play... it looked so promising.

Now?  It looks really, really bad.  The Bearcats have a tough road to sled, as they close with: @WVU, Villanova, @Georgetown.  Ouch.  That looks like three losses to me.  That makes them no better than .500 in league play and gives them 12 losses overall.  Before that stretch they still head to UConn and to South Florida.

It looks like kNITting, and probably the classifieds for Mick Cronin.

Maniac's Tourney Odds: .0004%

Connecticut (14-10, 4-7):  Oh how different thing look if only they scraped out that win at Syracuse last night.  Too bad the committee doesn't look at almosts, nor do they look at dubious officiating.  They look at W's and L's.  And the Huskies have a lot of L's.  Even the win over Texas seems to devalue with each game the Longhorns play.

As the Longhorns fade, the Huskies become an increasing long-shot.  Their out-of-league play gives them the nod over this entire list if they are all even in Big East play.  But at 4-7, they really need to go at least 5-2 to have a prayer heading into MSG and the conference tourney.

Here's the final seven:  Home: Cincinnati, Louisville, WVU  -- Road: Villanova, Rutgers, Notre Dame, South Florida.

Wouldn't it be a hoot if they are both at .500 shouting range going into the final game at the Sun Dome in Tampa??

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 25%

The good news, these teams ALL play each other a ton the final three weeks.  I think the Big East gets seven bids in the end.  Give me Pitt, Marquette and South Florida in a stunner (though if it is six, USF just misses).  Louisville is the first out, followed by UConn and Notre Dame.  Cincinnati limps pathetically home in eleventh place (or worse...Seton Hall, St. John's anyone??)

Oh It Hurts...

It really hurts to write this, but just wanted to point out that if some how USF can pull off the road upset tonight at Georgetown they would move to 5-5 in conference and have to be considered ahead of Cincinnati, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn and Seton Hall... meaning they would be IN the Field of 65.

Yuck.

In related Florida-hoops news, Michael Jordan's kid plays at UCF....

Dammit.

 

 All kidding aside, when Gilchrist gets back, this is a legit fringe bubble team.

The Belly of the BEast

The Maniac is finally able to sit after gorging on obscene amounts of Christmas Feastings. It got me thinking about who might be feasting and who might be looking at a famine in the bountiful upcoming Big East buffet.

* (Maniac's Note: Each team plays all 15 teams once, and three random teams twice. Ergo, schedule really really matters when the difference is one or two wins)

The Middle of the BEast:
Nearly everyone from the Big East enters conference play at 9-1, 10-1, 11-2, or 8-3 at worst. Assuming Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova and UConn as tourney locks, that leaves three to an unlikely five bids likely up for grabs. So who will separate themselves from the pack and battle for bids five through eight (and possibly nine) that the conference will receive?

Cincinnati - The Cats looked great early, but have slipped the last few weeks. At 8-3, they will need to go 10-8 in conference to feel safe, but do benefit from drawing Villanova, Syracuse, Georgetown and West Virginia only once. The only of the sure-fire tourney teams they get twice is UConn. If they handle the games they should win, the Cats will be in good shape in March.

Georgetown - The obvious favorite, but the Hoyas looked to be at exactly the same spot last year. The home loss to Old Dominion makes me at least aware that the Hoyas as not in lock status yet. Their mid-conference tussle with Duke is an aggressive, yet daring chance to steal a win that tips the scales in their favor should they find themselves muddled in a big group with eight to ten conference wins.

Marquette - The Eagles were the early darling after wins over Xavier and Michigan. All of a sudden, neither of those wins are over a ranked team (or tourney lock) and the losses to Florida State, Wisconsin and NC State represent the only other quality opponents en route to their 8-3 start. The Eagles will have some work to do in conference and feel like a team we will be talking about needing a win or two in the conference tourney to feel safely in the field of 65.

Notre Dame - Doesn't it feel like Luke Harangody has been here forever? The senior All-American might be feeling like he is living his career in reverse, Benjamin Snooze Button style. Each year, instead of growing up, it feels like the Irish regress. The Irish are 11-2, and like all league team, are only a 10-8 conference record away from the Big Dance. After home losses to Loyola Marymount and missing an opportunity for a quality win against Northwestern, the resume is shockingly blank. Their three best wins are probably UCLA, Long Beach State and UCF. That leaves a lot of work to be done in conference, and not much preparation for the task ahead. Looks like the "duck" of the Irish might do them in this season.

St John's - It is easy to be a little down on the Johnnies after their 71-66 loss to Cornell, but as our faithful readers already know, Cornell is really good. I'm calling my shot three months early and tagging them the 13 seed to be afraid of. Their only other loss is a respectable 9-pointer to Duke. They have wins over Temple and Siena. Only the Owls give them a chip to play outside of conference wins they amass. It is going to take 10-8, and I'm not sure they are quite good enough to get that many wins, but 8 or 9 and a bubble perch is not out of the question. The scheduling Gods have done them a favor, as they play each of the top five teams in conference (the four locks and G'Town) only once each. They get L'ville, Pitt and DePaul twice.

Louisville - What to make of Pitino and the Cards? They are the toughest team to get a read on. The were blasted by Charlotte and Western Carolina at home. They have beaten the hell out of Oral Roberts and Western Kentucky who have some good wins on their resumes. The Jan 2nd game against Kentucky provides an opportunity to gain some desperatly needed confidence and momentum. Assuming they do not pull the upset, the Cards have left themselves a lot of work to do in conference play. The Big East is a tough place to do that. They get Syracuse and UConn twice, and go to Morgantown in their lone shot at the Mountaineers.

Seton Hall - The Pirates were the trendy pick preseason to make the "leap" into the top half of the BEast. They might, but so far The Maniac just doesn't see it. Their best wins are Cornell and UMass. They really haven't played the schedule to prepare them for what is coming. I think everyone might get a preview of that tomorrow when they play WVU. They play WVU twice, but go to 'Nova, to G'town and to UConn in their lone meetings. That is a recipe for losses and a lack of quality wins over ranked opponents. It has the makings of a Providence 2008-2009 like resume for the Pirates. However, the one saving grace might be the final four conference games are all very winnable. That late momentum surge could pop the bubble in the Pirates favor.

Pitt - Was it really ten months ago the Panthers were ranked #1 in the nation?!? It feels like a lot longer, not just for me, but also for Jamie Dixon. The young Panthers have looked good at times, beating Wichita State and playing a good first half against Texas, but their resume is really thin. A double-digit loss to Indiana is a sub-RPI 100 loss and it is hard to imagine them picking up more than 7-8 wins in conference, though home&home's with St Johns and Seton Hall might give them a chance to earn a bid in a mano y mano y mano slugfest.

South Florida - An easy team to dismiss into the bottom four (with Rutgers, Providence and DePaul) if you haven't watched them play, but the Bulls are a much improved, and talent laden squad. They have an NBA-caliber talent in Dominque Jones, and are sitting at 10-2. They have wins over San Diego and Virginia and lost by just three to South Carolina and Central Michigan. They will have do some real work in conference, but the Bulls are no longer the gimme they might have been in past years. They get St. Johns and Notre Dame twice, so if the Bulls want it there is a chance to go take it.

Maniac's Crystal Ball:
IN: Georgetown, Cincinnati
BUBBLE IN: Louisville (Seton Hall, St. John's or Notre Dame) - IF eight or nine, depends a lot on conference tourneys and the Pac-10's sepatation in league play
BUBBLE OUT: South Florida, Marquette

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RIP Bearcats

OK, it is official. UC is OFF the bubble with last night's loss to lowly South Florida. On the heels of the 26-point shelacking fron the 'Cuse it is impossible to put Cincinnati ahead of bubble-mates like Providence (who swept them), Michigan, Virginia Tech, Creighton, Rhode Island, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Florida, Kentucky...

Of course, as with ALL BEast teams, the obligatory "if they get to the final of the conference tournament" disclaimer applies. Do you really think this team can do that?? Me neither.

Good luck in the NIT Bearcats.

The Bearcats are now "Bullish" on the NIT.

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WTF??!!??

As a loyal and proud UCF alum, I never delight in wrinting articles about USF; unless the headline was something like "Matt Groethe Hit by Bus!" or something of the sort...

Nonetheless, it is worth noting that Marquette's first conference loss of the season came tonight at the hands of the University of South Florida!

Again - I defy anyone to explain this season. In the past week: Duke suffers their worst loss in 20 years...to Clemson; Wake loses to Georgia Tech, and now Marquette to USF. Two weeks ago, Michigan State lost at home to Northwestern! Then last night, jumped out to a 46-12 lead over NCAA-tourney lock Minnesota.

It is going to be a bumpy ride, but in the end, don't be surprised if we end up back where we started; UNC, UConn, Oklahoma, Purdue, UCLA, Duke, Gonzaga and Louisville...

Or maybe Harvard will win the whole damn thing.

Your guess is as good as mine. Go Bulls!

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Let's Go Knights!

UCF basketball did something their football team rarely does. Beat a BCS conference opponent. Making it even sweeter for the Knights was that it came against I-4 rival, South Florida.

Let by C-USA POY Candidate, Jermaine Taylor's 28 points, the Knights captured the 71-63 victory. The Knights move to 4-3, while the Bulls fall to 3-3.

This night could only be sweeter for Knight fans if Matt Groethe would have been beaten up at center court during halftime.

Not a bad promotion idea, come to think of it...
just don't let any UCF D-Lineman do it.
He'd get away for sure...

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