Storm of Trouble Bruin for St. John's

Last weekend the St. John's Red Storm were the toast of college basketball after absolutely humiliating the Duke Blue Devils on national TV at Madison Square Garden.

Not quite the homecoming Lavin hoped for.

One weekend later, on the same CBS national television spotlight, the good will the upset over Duke brought evaporated with a 66-59 loss to the sudeenly-bubble worthy UCLA Bruins.  It was a familiar sight for Coach Lavin, watching the Bruins walk out of Pauley Pavillion with a huge victory.  Unfortunately for Lavin, tonight he seated on the opposite bench.

St. John's would present quite an interesting case for the selection committee were the season ending today.  13-9 is certainly not a record that screams "at-large bid" however the fact that those thirteen wins include the blowout win over Duke, as well as wins over Georgetown, West Virginia and Notre Dame.  Most of their losses are quality as well, teams like St. Mary's, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville and Cincinnati.  However losses to Fordham and St. Bonaventure are potential profile killers.

After today, I have the Red Storm in the NIT.  Their next four games are a difficult and vital stretch in which anything less than 2-2 all but elimates the Red Storm from the at-large discussion.  Realisitcally the Johnnie's really need to go 3-1 to get back on comfortable footing.   Connecticut comes to town Thursday, followed by road trips to Cincinnati and Marquette - two games important not just for the Red Storm's profile, but also enormous in that they are games against the two teams they are most likely competing with for the last few at-large bids doled out to BEast teams.  To wrap up the two week's murderers row they get a visit from conference leader Pitt.

There is no doubt that Coach Lavin's first year has been a success, if for nothing else that revitalizing some excitement around the basketball program.  However, if forced to wager I'd bet the Johnnie's are still one year away from making their long-anticipated return to March Madness.

For UCLA, the importance of today's win is hard to overstate.  At 16-7 overall and 7-3 in the Pac-10, the Bruins are beginning to assemble an NCAA Tournament team's resume.  Other than BYU, it is UCLA's first real victory of note.  Aside from Montana, their losses are certainly not embarrassing; Villanova, VCU, Kansas (by 2), Washington, USC and Arizona.  However, it takes a few quality wins to get invited, especially given the overall poor non-conference play from the Pac-10 in 2010.

For the Bruins, they really are in pretty good control of their destiny.  They have five winnable games before a final three that will be fantastic; Washington, Arizona and Washington State; coincidentally the only three teams than have any at-large chances in the Pac-10 aside from themselves.

Ben Howland still have some serious rebuilding to do to get back on par with his three consecutive Final Four teams of the mid-2000's, but after today it is looking more and more like the Bruins won't be sitting out the tourney for the second consecutive season.

.

Oregon Cedes From the Union, First Captures Neighboring Washington

In a bizarre night in Pac-10 hoops, both Oregon and Oregon State pulled off surprising upsets.  The two teams, mired in the bottom dregs of the less-than-fantastic Pac 10 knocked off their neighbors to the North, Washington State and Washington respectively.

While road losses to lesser teams have been happening with stunning frequency over the past two weeks, the Pac-10 teams may not have the same leeway and forgiveness for bad losses that most of their BCS conference brethren enjoy.

For Washington, things are still OK, though their assumed automatic spot in the Field of 68 is becoming less and less secure with each bad conference loss.  For Washington State, the progress gained in their weekend win over their instate rivals was diminshed, if not all together erased by their humiliating 67-43 loss to Oregon.  It was the most lopsided win in five years for the 11-11 (4-6) for the struggling Ducks and likely put a final nail in any slim at-large hopes Washington State still clung too.

Washington State has a weekend trip to Oregon State and visits from Stanford and Cal to try and get back on track.  For Washington, they will attempt to snap their two-game losing streak Saturday at Oregon, then have home visits in reverse order from the two aforementioned squads.
.

Kansas Dodges Bullet in Selby's Debut

The nation's longest home winning streak lived on, but barely.  Kansas has gone more than three seasons, 67 games, without dropping a contest at the Phogg, but for the second time this season found themselves needing some late theatrics to overcome a Pac-10 foe.

This time it was the celebrated and much publicized freshman, Josh Selby, playing in his first ever collegiate game who bailed them out.  Trailing by two with twenty seconds to go, Selby knocked down a long three point shot from the right elbow extended.  USC failed to even get a quality look at the basket on successive attempts before a half court heave at the buzzer came tantalizingly close to a miracle.

For Kansas, they'll take the win, but some questions linger after being pushed to the brink by a team with next to no hope of playing in the NCAA Tournament  (editor note: yes I got your emails.  I know, they are serving a self-imposed post season ban this season). 

Several weeks ago it was UCLA threatening to derail the Jayhawks incredible streak.  There could be some small causes for concern, but for tonight, the Jayhawks are still undefeated and just scratching the surface of how good they can become with Selby in the fold.

Wazzou Hammers Zags

Washington State can now claim their supremecy as the top team in Eastern Washington.

OK, so that might not be the loftiest title a team can ascribe to, but their 77-57 pounding of reeling Gonzaga might indicate as much positive for Washington State as it does put up some caution tape around Gonzaga's assumed automatic presence in the NCAA Tournament.

Washington State boasts one of the nation's best scorers you might not have heard of in sophomore sensation Klay Thompson.  Thomson, the son of former Laker Mychael Thompson is pacing the Cougars with 21.6 ppg.  With the win, Washington State moves to 6-1 on the season, their only loss coming on a five point loss to Kansas State. 

The win over Gonzaga is the first real quality win they have posted, though wins over Portland and Fresno State are decent, however their performance last night places them close to Arizona as teams who could concievably give Washington a run for the money in the still-down Pac 10.

Washington State's schedule remains soft leading up to conference play aside from a Dec 22nd tussle with Mississippi State.  However things will heat up quickly, as they dive into conference play with a pair of road games at UCLA and USC.

Someone's MISSing the Tourney

Not only is it an underrated and fierce rivalry, tonight in Starkville we might be watching a virtual elimination game when Ole Miss travels to Mississippi State.  With the middling play in the SEC West (and odd emergence of Arkansas) it is looking more and more likely that only one team from that half of the conference is going to the Big Dance.

Ole Miss's resume pre-conference is stronger; Mississippi State has already beaten the Rebels on their home floor.  If Ole Miss can't return the favor tonight, they likely find themselves on precarious bubble footing.

On the left coast, if you still have any patience or remote interest at all in Pac10 basketball, you'll get a rare opportunity to watch the best they have to offer tonight on ESPN.  East coast bias?  Heck, they even bumped them up to 9EST for us Easterner's convenience.  Say "thank you ESPN."

Cal (15-8) and Washington (16-7) both entered the season ranked in the Top 15 in the country.  Not to state the obvious, but both have dissapointed immensely.  Washington's non-conference profile isn't quite as brutal as the general Pac10 perception (losses to Tx Tech & G'Town, wins over Portland and Texas A&M).  Cal's isn't terrible either (losses to Ohio State, Syracuse, New Mexico and Kansas, wins over Iowa State and Murray State...ok, not very good resume...).  To be honest, all derision aside, Cal is likely an at-large team if the tourney was tomorrow and Washington really isn't so far gone to at least be in the discussion. 

Both have played better of late, and IF the Pac10 were to sneak in two teams, Washington would have to run the table from here on out.  The problem?  They can't win on the road.  As in, CAN'T WIN on the road.  They are 0-4 in conference play and did not win (or even attempt to more than once!) a single non-conference game away from home either. 

Tonight's game is at Cal...

MANIAC'S PICKS:

Ole Miss +5

Cal -5

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Three Reasons to Stay Up Late

Lest we be accused of an East Coast bias, I wanted to chime in with a quick update on a few games that have significant impact on the tourney landscape taking place out on the left coast.  If you need a reason to stay up until two o'clock tonight, I might be able to help you out.

The Pac-10 is a mess.  We've all heard that story.  It's not an unreasonable one, but it is getting a tad played out, and perhaps even a little overplayed.  Two games tonight can either contribute to the mess or forge two "contenders" for at-large selections (albeit one a bit of a reach)

Cal travels to USC tonight in a game that looked a lot better four weeks ago.  Since USC placed themselves on probation, low and behold, they kids just don't seem to be playing with the same intensity.  I wonder why?  Just because their once promising season has been crushed, along with their dreams of playing in the tourney murdered all because of what their old coach did regarding a player two years removed from the program?  That's no reason not to give the Old U your best effort...

(Picture total non-sequiter - just my running homage' to USC's AD "OJ'ing" the basketball season...)

Sarcasm aside, and my obvious slanted viewpoint, tonight is a big game for Cal.  A road win tonight in LA gets them to 7-3 in the Pac-10.  Despite the perception hit they took early, their overall profile is still in line to ercieve an at large bid if they can avoid another two or three losses.

The other game pits a bit of a role-reversal from how the season was supposed to unfold.  Washington came in to the season as the co-favorite, along with Cal.  It's been a dissapointing season to say the least.  Tonight they get a visit from suddenly-solid Arizona, who is tied atop the league with Cal.  Arizona's record is pretty brutal, but if they could string together four or five wins (just like last year), they would likely find the nation's longest NCAA tourney appearance streak granted another narrow reprieve.

In the WCC, Portland heads to Gonzaga.  Remember Portland?  We loved them.  We didn't love them  We completely forgot they existed.  Well, while we were sleeping the Pilots seemed to find their course.  They are 5-2 in league play, with their only losses coming to the Zags (by 3) and at St. Mary's (by 5).  If they can get a win tonight at the Kennel, admittedly easier said than done, they'd pull even with the Zags and both would trail St. Mary's by just a game in WCC play.  The Pilots chance to dance as an at-large flew away long ago, but a win tonight keeps them in the thick of things for the WCC crown.

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Good Day for the Pac-10

The PAC-10 showed itself well yesterday (UCLA excluded) after a dismal opening month.

USC recorded the conference's first victory over a Top 25 team this year. Read that last sentance again to grasp the rotteness of the conference's opening month. The Trojans hammered Tennessee in what can be considered the first real "surprise" or "upset" of the season, despite about 20 headlines for games that didn't merit it. (Examples: Wisconsin's home win over Duke, Portland beating a terrible UCLA team, Kansas State over UNLV (the most ridiculous of the list, K. State is better for crying out loud).

Then Washington absolutly eviscerated the Portland Pilots. The game was on long after most east coasters drifted to bed, but if you stayed up for the first eight minutes, you saw all you needed. The Huskies led by 20 in the first half, 30 early in the second half and cruised to a 36 point win that was never competitive.

It's a small step, but a much needed one as the Pac-10 tries to earn some validity before they begin playing one another for the remainder of the season.

A big day for the Trojans and the Pac-10

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Twenty Five Years and Runnin'

The Running Rebels take their newly earned national ranking on the road tonight to face Sean Miller's Arizona Wildcats. Much has been made of the inevitable demise of the nation's longest NCAA Tourney appearance streak... but hold on just a second.

The Wildcats are only 3-2, but looked potentially impressive in close losses to Vanderbilt and Wisconsin out in Maui. The Wildcats have a few more opportunities after tonight to pick up a few resume building wins with contests against Oklahoma, NC State and BYU yet to come. Factor in a winnable PAC 10 devoid of the six or seven Goliaths usually looming, and Arizona has legit hopes of keeping their absolutely remarkable streak alive.

Nic Wise and the 'Cats look to pick up a resume win tonight.

UNLV picked up a big resume win, taking down Louisville for the second straight year and gets another big chance tonight. With the Mountain West seemingly a little less powerful this year, every early win helps bolster the Runnin' Reb's case.

This is another game off the national radar, but one with far-reaching tourney shaping impact.

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Bubblin' Hot

Yep, it's all-bubble talk, all-day here at MM.com. Don't act like you don't like it!

One of the Maniac's bro-mances this year has been with Penn State and point guard Talor Battle. As a matter of fact, we flirted with sliding Penn State into "lock" status after their win at MSU and the troubles that have befallen Wisconsin and Michigan.

So what happens tonight?? Penn State scores TWENTY points in the second half, en route to a 20+ point loss to Michigan. That completes the season sweep of the Nittany Lions. Put that chip in Michigan's pile along with wins over Duke and UCLA, and the Nittany Lions need to significantly separate themselves from the Wolverines in order to dance. The Maniac would wager healthily that both will NOT get a punched Dance card.

Dunking Penn State makes the Big Ten one big, exciting mess.

Oh, throw in the Wisconsin easy win over Illinois and you once again have a giant jumbled Big Ten mess.

A week ago, dare I say, the Maniac predicted the resurecting run by the Arizona Wildcats. After their 3-point win tonight in Corvallis, only hapless Oregon stands in the way of the revivial coming to frution. It will be interesting to see whether the nation's longest active NCAA-appearance streak can live on for another year...

Seriously dude, stomp on MY face...

A couple good games to look up results for tomorrow: Gonzaga v. Portland, and Washington @ Cal...

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com
.

Is it too early to talk bubble??

At MarchManiacs, we say it is never too early to talk bubble. Furthermore, there are more than a few games that have major bubble implications.

Here is a quick guide to a few of the best:

2pm - Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M - It doesn't get any more "bubble" than this one. Both teams are squarely on it, and it is unlikely both will get tourney bids with Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas looking like locks, and Baylor and Missouri ahead of them. There is no way the Big 12 gets seven bids. The winner here has a valuable chip in their pocket for Selection Sunday.

3pm - South Carolina @ Kentucky - After Jodie Meeks' night at Tennessee the nation seemed willing to crown Kentucky the class of the SEC (I like the Cats, but would give the nod to Florida). South Carolina is an intersting team with some firepower and are 4-2 in SEC play, 15-4 overall. A win today puts the Gamecocks in the tourney mix (and comfortably ahead of Tennessee).

5pm - Baylor at Missouri - Same story as Ok St and A&M, only these two teams are positioned a little better. Baylor has the edge of being more highly regarded entering the season. Missouri has been overlooked all year; perhaps deservedly so after the stinkbomb they put up against Kansas State this week. This game probably means more to Missouri's tourney chances, especially since the game is in Colombia.

8pm - Two great ACC buble games; Virginia Tech travels to Boston College and Miami goes to Maryland. All four teams are still in the at-large mix (Va Tech being in good shape, Maryland teetering, the other two textbook "bubble" teams). The ACC has four clear locks, and VA Tech and FSU look to be #5 & #6. These two games go a long way to seeing which other teams will join the mix. Maryland is all but done with another loss or two, so will be scrappy tonight defending their homecourt.

8pm - Wisconsin @ Northwestern - If the Wildcats are going to end the longest tourney-less streak in the land (it is infinity and counting...) tonight's game HAS to be a win. If you were bracketing today, the Big Ten would get six, maybe seven. These two teams would be 8 & 9 respectively. An absolute must win for Northwestern.

10pm - California @ USC - Both teams enter 5-3 in Pac-10 play and solidly on the bubble. The Pac-10 looks to be one of the more up-for-grabs conferences in the nation, but only UCLA and Arizona State have garnered any national buzz. Washington surged out the conference lead with an upset win over UCLA, but appears to be coming back to the pack. Tonight's Cal/SC winner gets a valuable chip when it comes time to decide which four or five teams get to dance.

Stomp to the Heart

None of their current players have ever been alive in a year in which Arizona was NOT a participant in the NCAA Tournament.

Of course, all that could change in a most unpleasant way for their roster if things don't turn around in a hurry. The Maniac thinks they just might.

I am sure you have all seen the Chase Budinger face-stomp recipient "highlight" by now. It has been played roughly four hundred thousand times on ESPN. What has been less discussed is the furious rally Arizona put together to improbably force overtime, then allow just two points in the OT defeating a pretty good Houston team.



Tonight the Wildcats (12-8, 2-5) host Pac-10 leader Washington in what amount to a last stand for Arizona. Drop this, and it is most likely curtains on the Wildcats season. But win, and things get interesting. After tonight their next three games are: hosting Washington State, then traveling to both Oregon schools. All three are very winnable games. That would leave Arizona at 16-8 and 6-5 in conference and RIGHT in the at-large bid mix.

Of course, it all starts with a win tonight. Can they play with the passion and fury they mustered when their star was stomped on? Can they harness that same desperation for a moment when it is truly warranted?

I like the 'Cats and their two NBA-first rounders salvaging a disappointing season with an upset win over the Huskies tonight.

MANIACS PICK: Arizona 74 - Washington 67

.

Round One Conference Report Cards

Round One has come and gone (someone tell Vandy the Tourney started!?!), and it is time to give the conferences their first quarter grades

Big East: A

Perhaps no conference asserted itself like the Big East in Round One. Yes, the UCONN loss wasn't a good one. But, it is just one loss and an overtime buzzer-beater at that. Villanova capped off a wild day in Tampa, making it 4 for 4 for double-digit seeds. Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame and Pitt all won easily and convincingly. Marquette and West Virginia were impressive in evenly matched power-conference tilts (defeating Kentucky and Arizona respectively)

With a legit possibility for 5 or more teams to advance past the first weekend, the Big East justified it's record-tying 8 bids.

Big 12: A

Texas and Kansas were gimmes, but Kansas St, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma were all very impressive and solid wins. The only blemish was Baylor's lackluster performance, but the Maniac gives the conference a pass on that one, if Baylor was seeded appropriately (as a #2 Seed... in the NIT!!) it would have been a perfect opening round for the Big 12

Big Ten: B-

Michigan St and Purdue looked sharp, Wisconsin won in a relatively easy tilt. Indiana laid a big fat stink bomb against a mediocre Arkansas club. With only 4 teams in the Dance, at least 2 need to win this weekend to salvage the tourney for the Big 10.

Pac 10: C+

I know, I know, UCLA and Stanford could be in the Final Four. BUT, Arizona, Oregon and USC all looked pathetic coming out of what was alleged to be the "deepest and most balanced" league in the nation. With losses to similarly middling teams from the Big 12, Big East; it is tough for the Pac 10 to make that claim today.

SEC: C-

Georgia actually GETS points for the loss, they had X on the ropes for 32 minutes. Kentucky did nothing to embarrass themselves either, losing a reasonable game to a better Marquette squad, and Arkansas represented well. However the Vandy loss remains the most inexplicable no-show of the tourney. Losing by 20 to Sienna is flat-out inexcusable for a team with that much talent. Add in the Mississippi St. loss and a lackluster effort by Tennessee (watch out for Butler taking them OUT tomorrow) and it is a disappointing show for a "down" SEC.

ACC: C

North Carolina had a bye, and so did Duke... oh wait, Duke needed a bucket with 12 seconds to go to preserve a win over BELMONT. Is anyone really convinced the Charmin-soft Dookies get by West Virginia this afternoon? Miami looked good, but stands little chance against a much better Texas squad and Clemson looked offensively inept losing a 16 point lead to Villanova. Any lingering doubts as to whether the RPI had a clue after ranking the ACC as the NUMBER ONE conference in the nation have been squarely put to bed!

Atlantic 10: D

Xavier won in a game that took more effort than a traditional 3-14 match-up. Temple and St. Joe's had their doors blown off by good, not great, teams in Michigan St and Oklahoma. For a league that was flirting with 5 bids to the dance as recently as four weeks ago, an extremely underwhelming effort to gain national respect.

Tournament Day One Musings

Day One - Finally, some Madness

• I know Belmont played a great game and gave it a good run... but why is no one mentioning how ludicrous that inbounds play was?? Who draws up a backdoor alley-oop when you are smaller, slower and weaker at every position on the floor? I'd much rather see a double screen for a nice 18 footer off the elbow, but that's just me...
  

• Anyone catch Arizona v WVU? Arizona gets my vote for most disappointing team in 2008. Chase Buddinger is the next Josh McRoberts. Every time he takes the floor, his draft stock drops further. This guy was a projected lottery pick??

• Kansas State is legit. Looking WAY to far down the brackets, interesting possibility looming for Beasley, Walker and company. Manhattan? Check. Lawrence? Not Quite. Africa? Doesn't look like that one will make the schedule, BUT Beasley could get a chance to tackle the 'Hawks to punch a dance ticket to the Final Four.

• Duke is in real trouble. West Virginia by 12 on Saturday.

• How about the Big East? 4-0 yesterday, with Louisville, Georgetown and UCONN prohibitive favorites today. If Villanova can "upset" Clemson, it will be a perfect 8-0 for the BIG East.
  

• Meanwhile the Pac-10 looked a little lackluster. For a conference supposedly as deep and balanced as any in the nation, evenly slotted teams in Kansas St and West Virginia make the Pac-10 look a little pedestrian.

• When in doubt? Put your money on the team with the BEST PLAYER on the floor. With only 1 exception (Kentucky, Joe Crawford) the team with the best player on the floor won. Michael Beasley, Luke Harangody, Joe Alexander, etc.

• This bodes well for team today like: Western Kentucky (Courtney Lee), Villanova (Scottie Reynolds), and Butler (Mike Brown). Enjoy a great Day Two!