Some teams just can’t win for losing.Such is life on the bubble eternal for Seth Greenberg and the Virginia Tech Hokies.Mere days after a “season defining” and “resurrecting” win over the #1 Duke Blue Devils, what does Virginia Tech do??Opens up their doors for the Boston College Eagles and get their brains beat in on their home floor.
Suffice it to say no one will be storming the court tonight in Blacksburg.
Hello...hello...anyone? Anyone wanna storm me tonight? Guys?
Perhaps no two-game swing in college basketball better analogizes the entire season better than these three days in the life of a Hokie.In a year in which seemingly no one wants to be the top-ranked team in the country, it also seems like no one wants to play their way out of harm’s way before Selection Sunday.
For every “crippling loss” there is an equal and opposite “season defining” win; and the roles are played intermittently by the same exact teams.Quick – off the top off you head, are any of the teams I'll list statuses any more clear than the ubiquitous and arbitrary “well, if they______ in their conference tournament then _____”?
Virginia Tech, Boston College, Richmond, Alabama, Tennessee, Baylor, Colorado, Nebraska, Marquette, Butler, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, Southern Miss, UAB, Memphis, Wichita State, Missouri State, Colorado State, UNLV, Washington, Washington State, Georgia… seriously, is there really any difference?
While some might decry it, I’d contest that therein lies the true beauty of college basketball.For all the conjecture and debate, there will be only one champion on April 4th.To find out who that team is, all you have to do is look up at the scoreboard. Until then your guess is as good as mine... well, almost...
How big is today’s BYU at San Diego State game? CBS bought the rights to televise the game nationally. From it own affiliate, CBS College Sports!
Yes, Jimmer-Mania is about to take center stage nationally this afternoon at 2PM Eastern, 11AM local time, when two of the nation’s top teams battle for Mountain West supremacy. BYU took the first contest at home in one of the three or four best college basketball games of the season. Jimmer was simply stunning, netting an incredible 43 points an erupting onto the national stage and emerging as the leading candidate for National Player of the Year.
Oddly enough, it could be the same matchup today that derails that quest. San Diego State is good. REALLY good. Their 27-1 record gets dismissed because of their conference (which is absurd, I’d take the top half of the MWC over the top half of the Pac-10 and SEC), but the truth is San Diego State is built for the NCAA Tournament. They defend every bit as well as some of the more vaunted Big East and Big Ten stalwarts. They have a legit NBA player in their front court in Kwahi Leonard and an underrated elite point guard in DJ Gay.
I think it is going to be real tough for BYU to win today in San Diego. I like the Aztecs to run the table this season and capture a much-debated #1 in the NCAA Tournament.
Win or lose, just as CBS correctly gambled, I am going to be glued to the TV for what promises to be one of the most exciting and anticipated games of the 2010-2011 regular season.
Maniac's Pick: San Diego State -3.5
Southern Miss @ UCF Knights -1
UCF was the early season media darling as Marcus Jordan, heir of His Airness, and company took the nation by storm, racing out to a 14-0 start and a #21 national ranking. The ranking was the first in school history, and with a young ball club under first-year head coach Donnie Jones, the sky was the limit.
Then the Knights went Chicken Little; as in the sky started falling right on top of them. Whether it was nagging injuries, fatigue, overconfidence, or just simply the fact they played a little over their skis for the first month; things got bad quickly. The Knights lost eight consecutive games, all in Conference USA, and faded from NCAA Hopeful to ‘C-USA cellar dweller’ in the matter of three weeks.
The Knights have played much better of late, winning three of their past four games, including wins over Tulsa and a road win at then-conference leader UTEP.
Southern Miss comes into the game with a ton to play for. The Golden Eagles and Coach Eustachy haven’t gotten much run, but they are actually a legitimate NCAA Bubble team. They currently sit at 21-6 (9-4 in conference). With a strong finish they could slip in as a #11 or #12. Their pair of close, heart-breaking losses to Memphis really hurt them, but the rest of their losses aren’t doing them much good either; Ole Miss, Marshall, Colorado State and SMU. None of those teams are awful, and CSU is actually pretty good, but none of those losses qualify as “good.”
Southern Miss is is a talented team, and should be favored in today’s game. But, they aren’t. Hmmm….that makes this a pretty easy selection. Give me the Golden Eagles roughing up an overrated UCF squad in Orlando.
PICK: Southern Miss +1
Please, just one win...please.
Duke Blue Devils -4 @ Virginia Tech Hokies
If it feels like we’ve been in this spot before with Seth Greenberg, it’s because we have. It’s becoming almost an annual rite of passage that a regular season game in March is vital for the Hokies bubble dreams.
If you’ve been following college hoops for a while, you know that those dreams have usually turned into nightmares.
Tonight’s game represents an enormous chance for the Hokies to finally get a quality night’s sleep on Selection Sunday. With a win tonight at home the Hokies Dance ticket is essentially punched. The crowd in Blacksburg will be a huge advantage for them as well, with ESPN Gameday and all the festivities than accompany it going on. However, this isn’t Duke’s first rodeo and certainly not a new experience facing a hostile crowd.
The correlation I like to use is this: Remember the Kansas @ Kansas State game two weeks ago? It was an “upset” but one that followed a predictable formula. Elite team travels to road team who view them as their chief rival. The home team has a less-than-great record due to some losses early, but has played very well the two weeks leading up to the game. The home team was highly ranked at the beginning of the season but has since been forgotten about. The “forgotten”, inspired, talented and desperate home team plays their best game of the season, pulls off the huge “upset.”
Fans storm the floor. Chaos ensues.
You know the recipe. That’s exactly what is cooking up in Blacksburg, the perfect storm brewing for a huge bowl of upset soup. The numbers defy it, but sometimes the human element outweighs the statistics. Gimme the Hokies in a valiant home last-stand not only covering, but handing the Dukies their third loss of the season.
Selection Sunday is barely three weeks away and the scramble for position is starting to heat up. Here's a quick recap of who helped their cause in the last five days and who is beginning to teeter.
STOCK UP:
Kansas State - The Wildcats saved their season Monday night with a convincing win over #1 Kansas. Kudos to Jimmy Dykes of ESPN, who before the game said that if State had any chance of pulling the upset, senior Jacob Pullen needed to have a "Jimmer Fredette game."
Pullen did just that, scoring a career-high 37 points. The win resurects the Wildcats tourney life...for now. Those two losses to Colorado are still a tough hurdle to overcome, particualrly if the Buffaloes can finish strong.
Boston College - I'm still not sold on the Eagles tourney worthiness, but their 76-72 win over Maryland moves them into much better position in the down ACC.
North Carolina - The Tarheels are still a Top 4 seed in the Maniac's book. Their road win at Clemson all but assured them second place in the ACC, and put the final nail in Clemson's already weak NCAA chances.
Colorado State - Don't look now, but the Rams are one of the nation's most surprising at-large contenders. I am not sure if the MWC can pull four bids, so it is imperative they keep pace with UNLV these last three weeks. Saturday's win over New Mexico was enormous for CSU, and the final nail in Coach Alford's New Mexico Lobos' coffin.
The Rams still control their own destiny. The host UNLV, and travel to BYU and San Diego State in three of their final five games. Take two of those three and avoid any slip-ups and the Rams are in. Easier said than done, but if you would have told and CSU fans the previous scenario back in November, I assure you they'd have taken it with a huge grin.
Temple - The Owls went on the road and hammered Dayton. The Owls are all but a lock at this point, and have a shot at creeping as high as a #5 or #6 if they finish strong (which they seem to do every year).
Florida - We wrote about the Florida v. Tennessee game at length, so no need to rehash the ugliness. But for Billy D, the Gators are nearing lock status. With a stong finish they could creep as high as a #4, however with a tailspin they could slide all the way down to the #9-#10 range.
Memphis - Back to back wins over Southern Miss and UAB (Sat & Wed) all but clinch the Tigers as a tourney team in the Maniac's book.
St. John's - Lavin and the Johnnies got a huge win, 59-57 at Cincinnati Sunday. ESPN has them as a #7 currently. The followed up the win with a 80-68 win over Marquette - a huge win made even bigger by how much it damaged their fellow Big East bubble denizen's chances We still have them holding in the #9 range - but definitely a tourney team barring a late collapse.
Cincinnati - Yes, they lost in the aforementioned game, but the Wednesday pasting of Louisville moves the Bearcats into really good position to capture a well-deserved tenth bid for the Big East.
Virginia Tech - The Hokies are making a late surge towards finally ending up on the right side of the bubble. Sunday's 102-74 win over Georgia Tech was an impressive offensive display. Tuesday's pasting of Maryland moves them even closer, and they are beginning to separate them from the ACC bubble pack.
Butler - The Bulldogs are making a furious rush to get back in the at-large discussion. They've now won five straight, including wins over Wisc-Milwaukee, Wright State and Cleveland State to climb back to 11-5 in the Horizon League.
STOCK DOWN: Duquesne - The Dukes tourney hopes took a devestating blow with Saturday's home loss to Xavier. It isn't so much that the loss is bad more than it was the Dukes one great chance to earn a validating win that slipped through their fingers. Despite their 11-2 A10 record, they still have only one Top 50 win to their resume (and eight losses).
Southern Miss & UAB - Both fell victim to conference bully Memphis this week; their respective tournament hopes might have fallen victim with the losses. Neither is dead, but both have a huge road ahead of them, particularly Southern Miss who is nearing "must win the conference tourney" status.
Northern Iowa - Their at-large hopes gasped their last breath Saturday in their 18-point home loss to Wichita State. The Shockers are looking good for March; the Panther will need to pull a shocker if they hope to Dance again this year.
UNLV - The Reb's missed a golden opportunity Saturday, losing 63-57 at home to San Diego State. UNLV needs to finish strong to earn a third bid for the MWC (and hold off Colorado State).
Georgia - The Bulldogs Wednesday night loss to Vandy was a damaging one. Georgia falls to 6-5 in the SEC and just 17-8 overall. It's fair to say they MUST win one of their next two games; at Tennessee and at Florida to stay in the tourney picture.
Bubble talk usually focuses more on the disappointing aspect rather than the optimistic; meaning it's usually only the "bubble" if a team has under achieved. However, the bubble goes both ways, so here's a quick rundown of some teams that helped the NCAA chances with good wins this week.
Some of you have politely pointed out that the Maniac is a moron and that Southern Miss isn't any good and that Conference USA isn't getting multiple bids into the tourney. Those of you (and you know who you are!) who have been so kind as to email your, um, "concerns" might be right on #1 and #3, but not the middle morsel of information. Southern Miss is a good ballclub. And tonight they earned what might turn out to be a season-saving win, knocking off UAB in Birmingham 75-71.
The win moves Southern Miss to 17-5 (6-3) and a half-game ahead of UAB, Memphis and UTEP atop the conference standings. If the NCAA had truly sold out for the monster payday and expanded the tourney to 96, no doubt all four of these teams would be dancing. However, at the current 68 it is going to be a close call down the stretch for all four. A win on the road over one of your prime competitors is enormous.
The Maniac continues to stand on an island regarding the Golden Eagles and their tourney merit. Not one single major media outlet, ESPN, FOx Sports, CBS, Yahoo - have included them in a single mock bracket all season. I'm sure I'll get a few wrong, but when they DO earn their at-large bid, feel free to Tweet of my incomparable hoops genius...
In the Maniac's bracket, I have both Southern Miss AND UAB in, with Memphis being in the first four out. UTEP probably has the longest odds, despite having an identical record to Memphis and UAB, because of their lack of any significant non-conference wins.
In the Atlantic 10 the Maniac's second pet team for 2011, the Duquesne Dukes kept doing what they have all season - absolutely obliterate conference opponents. This time the victim was George Washington by an 84-59 tally. With Xavier's surprising loss at Charlotte, Duquesne moves into sole possession of the conference lead at a perfect 8-0.
In the ACC, two of the teams we thought would be good, then looked bad early so we wrote off as lousy, are actually pretty good again. Make sense?
Virginia Tech continued their profile rehab, winning 77-69 at NC State. The win lifted the Hokies to 15-6 (5-3). Their non-conference losses to Kansas State, UNLV and Purdue do little to damage their overall resume. If they can scrape back to 11-5 or even 10-6, they should have little to be nervous about on Selection Sunday.
Meanwhile North Carolina handled their business last night on the road at Boston College, winning easily and very impressively, 106-74, to run their league record to a tidy 6-1. That's good for a first place tie with the much heralded Dukies (Duke moved a half-game back in front with tonight's win over Maryland).
Harrison Barnes had a season-high 26 points and is showing glimpses of being the player everyone expected him to be instantly. Instead, his matuaration process has taken some time to evolve; and is still evolving, but as his play continues to improve Carolina is growing into a multi-dimensional team with a ton of length and talent.
In our latest Bracketeering we have the Tarheels projecting to the #4 line - not too far off of where long-forgotten lofty expectations were prior to the season...
Someone wake up the Hokies before this season gets completely away from them.
Expectations were at a nearly unprecedented high for Virginia Tech heading into the 2010-2011 season. To say it's been a disappointing start would be a bit of an understatement. The beefed up schedule has backfired, with nearly every "big game" turning into "disappointing loss."
They won today, but it's hard to take away much positive from the relative struggle they got from one of the lowest rated teams in all of Division I basketball, South Carolina-Upstate (2-10).
The ACC is wide open for second place, and the Hokies have to be considered among the contenders but they are going to have to get a much better effort than they got today in Blacksburg.
Last season the Big Ten laid to rest the seemingly eternal streak of ACC dominance. Winning last year's challenge was the first time the Big Ten had done so since the series inception more than a decade ago.
Last year's triumph may have been a minor upset, but in order for the ACC to get back on top it is going to take an upset of their own. For perhaps the first time in the Challenge era, the Big Ten is clearly superior.
Here's a quick breakdown of the matchups, along with some fearless prognostications:
MONDAY:
Virginia @ Minnesota: Tubby's Gophers have been one of the pleasant surprises of the early season, winning their preseason tourney by downing North Carolina and West Virginia. They also handled solid mid-majors Wofford, Western Kentucky and Siena, all with relative ease. They should cruise at home against the Cavaliers.
TUESDAY:
Iowa @ Wake Forest: Both teams have been dreadful in the early going and look like cellar dwellars in their respective leagues. I'll take Wake, who I think is a little better than they have played, at home over the Hawkeyes.
Georgia Tech @ Northwestern: The Wildcats their first real test of the season. I like them over the Jackets in a close game.
Ohio State @ Florida State: The Buckeye's were #2 in our preseason poll, and remain the most legitimate challenger (along with Kansas) to the Blue Devils hopes to repeat. Florida State lacks the offensive punch to score with a very balanced Buckeye attack.
Michigan @ Clemson: This is a game the Tigers need to win if the ACC has any chance of pulling out the challenge. I think they will, but this one could be really ugly. Both teams are sloppy with the ball an inefficient offensively.
North Carolina @ Illinois: Illinois is one of the quietest good teams in the country. They dropped to #20 after losing an intense game to Texas. Look for the Illini to exploit Carolina's ballhandling and passing woes into easy buckets and an easy win.
WEDNESDAY: Indiana @ Boston College: This is a huge opportunity for the Hoosiers to take the next step in their rebuilding journey and validate their early unbeaten creampuff-aided record. BC has played in more competitive games early, and that is an advantage, but I still like the Hoosiers to get an upset win on the road.
North Carolina State @ Wisconsin: The Badgers just do not lose in the Kohl Center. They won't tonight either. Give me Bucky in a win over better-than-advertised NC State.
Purdue @ Virginia Tech: VA Tech might be the second best team in the ACC (hence my 'Can Duke Run the Table' columns). Purdue is taking some flack for losing to Richmond the other day, but Richmond is a legit Top 20 team. To me, not as concerning a loss as it seemed on the surface. Despite the loss of Hummel, Purdue remains Top 10-Top 15 talented with JuJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore. I like the Boilermakers in the road, stiffling Malcoln Delaney and the Hokies. This is probably the second best game of the series, I wouldn't miss this one.
Maryland @ Penn State: This is why God created ESPN-U. So you and I could watch games like this while 99.9% of the nation could care less. Maryland is my sleeper pick in the ACC. I watched them frustrate Pitt for 40 minutes. Once they figure out who their primary ballhandler is going to be, the Terps could surprise some folks and make the tourney. Penn State is awful, but enjoy Talor Battle for one more season. The do-everything guard for the Nittany Lions is one of the most exciting players in the country. That said, I'll take the Terps on the road.
Michigan State @ Duke: This is the marquee matchup, and we'll devote a column to it on Wednesday. I won't give away my pick, but I'm sure you can guess....
OVERALL: I have the Big Ten winning 7-4 on my fight card.
I actually heard someone on the radio during my two-hour drive today (major network) insinuate that the ommission of Mississippi State is a prime example of why the tournament needs to expand.
I couldn't agree more. Let's blow up the greatest three weeks in American sports for Mississippi State. Makes prefect sense to me.
But alas there are a few teams with legit reason for some madness at being left out of the Madness (and yes, the Bulldogs are probably the foremost).
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Seth Greenberg and Virginia Tech got screwed. Granted the author of the quote is usually none other than Seth Greenberg, but this time, the Maniac will echo his sentiments. And for all those of you who say "you shouldn't have gotten blasted by Miami in the ACC tourney" I say, hold on just a quick second.
You know who else bowed out early in their conference tourney? This year's most glaring over-seed and ill-admission, the Florida Gators. Perhaps the committee owed Jeremy Foley a favor or was afraid to see a "marquee" coach's seat get quite as hot as Billy's D's en route to NIT-Three... The Hokies finished THIRD in a conference that sent SIX teams to the Dance, including Georgia Tech. Granted the Jackets made it all the way to the ACC final, but their regualr season ACC performance was 7-9. Read it again. Seven and Nine. That puts them three full games behind the Hokies in conference.
So... if conference tournaments are that important, let's put every deep advancer IN the the Dance. And that's exactly HOW it happened. Read: Minnesota. The Gophers were outclassed by Illinois all Big Ten season, but in tourney play The Gohpers beat Sparty in OT, and the Illini failed to get off a game-winning attempt in regulation, and again in OT against Ohio State. When the clock finally expired in Double OT, the Illini's season was over. Perhaps if they instead drew the depleted Boilermakers (like Minnesota) it would be Chief Illini and the ridiculous headdress this March. On a side note - Congrats Tubby.
Conference tourney's matter. The committee showed this clearly. Georgetown's deep run launched them from a 4/5 to a solid #3 and Notre Dame's Semi-Final run took them from "bubble" to six seed. Baylor's nice late tourney run landed them as the pesky #3 seed no one knows enough about and Cal's near-win against Washington landed them on safe ground as a #8.
In fact, every major conference conference finalist MADE the tourney...EXCEPT Mississippi State. To make things further perplexing, espite rolling Florida and Vandy en route to a thrilling OT loss to Kentucky (the second time they had UK flat-out BEAT this season) and finsihing with the same record (9-7) in conference, and a one-game better record overall, a last week win OVER the Gators and an RPI one spot higher... the final spot goes to???? The Gators.
Look, I get that a lot of my readers are Gator fans, and I also get that one stupid ten seed (or eleven or twelve) is not that big of a deal. My only point is, with THOSE numbers I just gave you, HOW is Florida a #10 and Missippis State is completely OUT?
By every quantifiable number the Bulldogs are equal or better. RPI, conference record, play down the stretch, quality wins, head-to-head on a neutral floor three days before the selection process, and overall record.... HMMMM. That's all I'm saying. HMMMMMM.
OK, onto my awards for the Selection Committee: Most over-seeded teams:
1. Florida (in case you missed that point earlier)
2. Wisconsin as a #4. if the tourney were played in the Kohl Center, perhaps. I think the committee placed far too high a premium on pre-conference HOME wins over Duke and Marquette. Down the stretch, the Badgers were average at best
3. New Mexico State as a #12. A number 12 means they were a bubble team had they not earned the auto-bid by upsetting Utah State. I have no problem with Utah State as a #12, but New Mexico State?? Would they have even been in the First Ten Out had they not won? No, of course not. So HOW are they a #12 while Siena is a #13?
Under-Seeded Teams:
1. Temple as a #5. They win the A-10 Regular Season, they won the A-10 Tourney. They are 27-5 with an RPI of #9. How this team fell to a #5 behind teams like Vandy, Pitt (LOOK at their non-conference schedule, nothing of quality with losses to Texas and INDIANA), and Wisconsin is baffling to me.
2. Butler as a #5. They played a solid non-conference slate. Then they went 16-0 and won their conference tourney. The Horizon league isn't a dazzler but you can't ask for more than perfection. Last year they fell in the conference tourney and Cleveland State went out and bounced #4 Wake Forest... They also have an RPI of #12 with wins over Xavier and Ohio State...
3. BYU as a #7. Perhaps Florida will at least get their due as the over-seeded #10 to face the under-seeded #7. Let's just close our eyes and call it what it is: a 5/12 classic.
Virginia Tech is 20-4 (7-3) heading into tonight's visit from Wake Forest. Granted, VA Tech's pre-conference highlights include only wins over Georgia, Penn State and Seton Hall, and a loss at Temple. But since when does 20-4 with a 7-3 record in the ACC have you squarely on the bubble?
I think, for once, I agree with Seth Greenburg's apopleptic frustration. Not enough to ever dream of sabatoging the greatest sporting event in America and turining it into a 96-team slopfest, but enough to agree that his Hokies have been drastically overlooked so far this season. Aside from the loss at Miami, they have not taken anything resembling a bad loss this season.
There are two obvious solutions to earning respect: One - schedule better. It's too late to fix that one this year. Secondly? WIN tonight over Wake Forest, move into second place in the ACC and grab firmly ahold of your spot in the Dance.
I really like this Wake Forest team. Al Farouq Aminu is a beast and their guard play is steady, if not spectacular. They can win a game or two in the tourney, and should definitely get to the Dance. My early season proclamation of Georgia Tech and Clemson as two and three in the conference might have been off base. Wake deserves to be in that discussion far more than those two. However, I like The ACC's leading scorer Malcolm Delaney and the Hokies grabbing a huge program win tonight on their home floor.
Welcome to a new feature on March Maniacs called "Moving Up & Moving Out". Each week we are going to take a look at the biggest movers in what is emerging as one of the most tumultuous seasons in recent memory. I still defy any expert or pundit to make sense of the ACC. I really don't think it is possible at this point.
Last week, in my now destroyed Bracketeering Projection, I argued the Top Three teams in the ACC are Duke, Georgia Tech and Clemson. I still think that is true, particularly after Maryland's loss to Clemson last night. I'm not as high on Florida State as some others are, and still project them in the NIT. I wasn't sold on Virginia, but the way they handed Carolina their backside on the home floor (again) seems to tell us something... though which team it tells us more about it debatable.
The ACC is a mess, and I wouldn't wager a dime on a single conference game the rest of the year my waging-minded friends. That said, here is a quick status check of the many ACC bubblemates.
Moving Up:
Clemson - notched a big win last night over Maryland to move to 4-4 in conference. Two of their losses are to 5-2 Duke, so winning the ACC is pretty much out of reach. However those two losses to the Dukies mean their remaining schedule allows them eight league games without facing their nemesis in Durham. By the end of the year, Clemson wins 10-11 games in league and makes the tournament wearing white jerseys in Round One.
Florida State - Yes, it was Boston College, but any road win in the ACC is a good win. It pulled the Seminoles to 4-3 in conference and leaves them squarely in the race.
Virginia - What to make of the Cavs? I still contend that unless they win 11 games in league they will have a tough time making the tourney because of the brutal non-conference losses they sustained. One could even argue that Virginia's success damages the league's hopes to earn six or seven bids as it devalues the percieved quality of the teams. All that said, they went into Chapel Hill and beat the hell out of Roy Williams' and his seemingly never-ending parade of McDonald's All-Americans and moved to 4-2 in league play.
Moving Out:
Miami (FL) - Yes, they finally got a conference win this weekend. However of the Hurricanes 16 wins, only SIX of them have come against teams in the RPI Top 200. Let me repeat that. TOP 200. Yuck.
Virginia Tech - And of you are team that loses to the aforementioned 'Canes, your stock has to drop a bit. Coming right on the heels of a good win in Charlottesville, it has to be a particularly deflating loss. It looks like yet another NIT stop for Seth Greenburg and the Hokies.
North Carolina - What to say about the Tarheels? This week they fall to 2-4 in league after getting decimated at home by Virginia. It is one thing to struggle on the road; most conferences do. It is quite another to be hammered at home in back to back games by Wake Forest and Virginia. I had the Tarheels as a #7 seed in my first bracket projection. It has nothing to do with the "name on the jersey", in fact I would argue the Tarheels were slightly undervalued for the exact same reason and heightened scruitiny.
It is getting real hard to argue on Carolina's behalf at this point. Will they make the tourney? It seems hard to imagine they can't get that awesome collection of talent steadied, but it seems equally abysmal watching their last two home games. This week they have two road games; at VA Tech and at Maryland. They really need to win both to be on decent footing before the following week's visit from the Dukies.
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The salvo Georgia Tech fired across Duke's bow Saturday has to resonate leaguewide. The message? The ACC is more wide open than it has been in a decade. Duke loses their road opener and North Carolina has looked incredibly vulnerable in the young season. I wrote several weeks ago that #3 through #11 this league was as jumbled as any. Perhaps it should be ammended to #1-#12; i.e. top to bottom.
Clemson handled their homecourt with ease, downing Boston College 72-56. The win was a nice bounce back for the Tigers after their opening loss in Cameron. The game of the day was Miami defeating Wake Forest 77-76 at home. Both teams look like NCAA Tournament teams to me, though there is still a long way to go in a brutal conference slate. Miami, unranked as of yesterday, is off to a 15-1 start. Might it be view the Canes as legitimate conference title challengers?
The ACC has long played some of their finer confernce games on Sunday night. While most people were watching the NFL, Maryland got a huge win, 77-68 over Florida State. It seems the Terps are annually on the bubble and the non-conference performance leads you to believe it might be more of the same in 2010. Conference wins will be huge, and it is important to win at home if you want to dance in March.
Carolina pulled away late and got a got win over a better than advertised Virginia Tech ballclub, 78-64. And speaking of bubble, Seth Greenburg's Hokies are annual staddlers as well. With Miami and FSU up next, they can ill-afford a 0-3 conference start and will need to knock off one of them.
Lastly, hats off to Virginia. The Cavs were largely picked last in the preseason but won their opener 70-62 over NC State, on the road no less. Let's not get hasty booking tourney plans, but it seems that all 12 teams will be capable of winning, and losing, on any night.
Team Up: Virginia, Maryland, Miami
Team Down: Boston College, NC State
Week ahead highlights: Maryland @ Wake (Tues), UNC @ Clemson (Wed), GA Tech @ UNC & VA Tech @ FSU (Sat), Wake @ Duke (Sun)
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The phrase de' jour this season in college hoops is "signature win." Everyone needs to have their "signature win." Providence got theirs this week beating Pitt. Cincinnati lacks one, and it will likely be their bubble popping lest they win tonight against West Virginia. Maryland got theirs this weekend taking down Carolina in overtime; ditto for BC's bookend wins over Duke and the aforementioned Heels.
But at what point does the "signature" begin to fade?? Last night ESPN threw up a graphic of the "signature wins" for the ACC's bottom six teams. FOUR of them read "Wake Forest."
Leading me to question....
Just a thought. I don't hate Wake, just think they have gotten more mileage out of the timing of when they won more than any team in the nation. Their resume, is quite comparable to a lot of teams ranked 15-25, only they didn't lose out of conference (nor did they beat anyone other than BYU). So what exactly does a "signature win" entail??
Anyhow, several teams will be seeking their "signature wins" this week as we franticly race towards Selection Sunday:
Thursday:
West Virginia @ Cincinnati - Cincy needs a win over Huggs to stay alive Minnesota @ Illinois - Gophers in danger of sliding onto..and off the bubble Memphis @ UAB (9pm) - Darth Vaden needs to strike back in a major way to keep the Blazers slim at-large hopes alive USC @ Cal - Last gasp for USC as well tonight at Cal
Saturday: Clemson @ Florida State (2pm) - big game for both seeding-wise Notre Dame @ UConn (2pm) - Do or die for the Irish...again. Illinois St @ Creighton (2pm) - Great game; Jays can not afford any losses before MVC title game to snag an at-large bid Arizona @ Washington - Win for 'Cats takes them from "bubble" to "lock" status Duke @ VA Tech - Hokies got big win at Clemson, a win over Duke might put them in the Dance LSU @ Kentucky (4pm) - Kentucky is in danger of playing themselves out of the tourney Utah @ BYU - One would think both teams are safely in, but the winner removes all doubt Utah St @ Nevada - The Aggies are 25-3, and still not quite a lock, they can ill-afford to give away another L and be safely in.
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Even by the most conservative estimates, there are no more than 15 at-large bids up for grabs. If one leans towards practicality, the number is closer to 9 or 10, as Syracuse, West Virginia, Florida State and Utah are closer to locks than the bubble.
That said, here is the Maniac's slant on who leans through the finish line and who stands gasping with their hands on their hips.
Cincinnati - 17-10 (7-7) The Cats will have their chance to move into secure footing Thursday night when they take on former coach Bob Huggins and the Mountaineers. Following the WVU game they go to Syracuse for their final chance at a marquee win. Their final two games are should wins at South Florida and hosting Seton Hall. Should the Cats split their next two, then handle their business in the final two they would finish 20-11, 10-8. That should be enough to dance. MANIAC'S CALL: OUT
Virginia Tech 16-10 (6-6) The Hokies have played themselves on the wring side of the bubble dropping three straight games. The good news? They have four games remaining to pick up some valuable wins and play their way in. The flipside? They could easily drop three or even all four and find themselves a tourney afterthought (and middle seed in the NIT). The gauntlet starts tonight at Clemson, followed by visits from Duke and UNC. The finale is a trip to Florida State...but by then it may not matter too much. MANIAC'S CALL: OUT
Providence 17-11 (9-7) With all apologies to Barack, The Friars showed us a real game changer last night. Their start-to-finish beating of the #1 Panthers last night took the Friars from first team out to comfortably IN. Now they just have to hold the rope. A win over Rutgers and a non-embarassing performance at Villanova and in the first round of the Big East tourney should get the Friars a ticket to the Dance. MANIAC'S CALL: IN
Notre Dame 15-11 (6-8) Ok, hear me out... Notre Dame has two should wins on the schedule, a trip to Storrs Saturday and a home game against Villanova. If they go 3-1, and win a game in the Big East tourney, they would finish up 19-13, (9-9). It would depend on how well some of the smaller conference locks fare in the conference tourney, but I think it would be enough to get the Irish the last at large bid. Win at Connecticut? Notre Dame passes Cincinnati and Providence and becomes the Big East's 7th bid. MANIAC'S CALL: IN
Kansas State 19-8 (7-5) The Wildacts put on a heckuva run to even get to this point in the discussion, but a colser look at the resume makes their case a longshot. They boast no major non-conference wins, and have losses to Kentucky (acceptable), Iowa (less acceptable) and Oregon (something NO Pac-10 team has to apologize for...). Their final four gives them a chance to win their way in; games against Nebraska and Oklahoma State are winnable and attractive wins to boot, the Missouri game would be the clincher. It is asking a lot of a team that no one expected to be here after starting 0-5 in Big 12 play. MANIAC'S CALL: OUT
UAB 19-8 (9-3) The Blazers have an early season win over Arizona, and all five of their non-conference losses are to tourney teams (Oklahoma, Butler, Cincinati, Louisville, and BC). That said, this is not your Daddy's C-USA. It is a 1-bid league these days, though Houston, Tulsa and the Blazers are much improved. The Blazers do get a de facto first round tourney game on Saturday when they take on Memphis. Win that, and their other remaining three and they make a compelling case for the committee to consider. Should they lose Saturday, they better win the C-USA tourney ior it is another trip to the NIT for Robert Vaden and Coach Davis. MANIAC'S CALL: OUT
Creighton 23-6 (13-4) Wins over Dayton, St. Joes and New Mexico and a two-point losses to underrated Arkansas Little Rock and Nebraska give the Blue Jays one of the more intriguing discussions. 13-4 in the balanced, but not spectacular MVC leads one to believe the Jays need to win the tourney to Dance. I think if they win Saturday over Illinois State and finish the regular season at 24-6 they will be fine; deservedly so. MANIAC'S CALL: IN
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Everything in the final few weeks is under a much closer magnifying glass. There are a few teams who might wish they could have shuffled yesterday's losses into the November mulligan pile.
Bad Losses:
Miami (FL) all but sealed their NIT fate last night, falling to Florida State 80-67. The Canes join Notre Dame and Georgetown as one of the most disapointing teams in 2009.
Illinois was starting to gather some momentum as a possible top-4 seed. Last night that came to a clanking halt. Let me emphasize "clank." As in 33 points. Yup, just 33 points. Granted Penn State netted only 38 in what has to be one of the lousier "decent" games of the season.
Providence wasn't supposed to win at Louisville, but posting another double-digit loss against a formidable foe gives some ammo to the case for leaving out the Friars. One of their only saving graces might be the fact that Georgetown and Notre Dame seemingly refuse to make a late season charge, and the Big East is GOING to get eight teams in...
Butler dropped another game last night, this time a three point loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Butler peaked in the Top 10, but is looking more like a 10 seed if they don't get it together quickly.
Someone should volunteer to play defense down in Knoxville. Most people still have the Vols comfortably in the tourney, but they sure are begging the committee to reconsider. Last night they got drubbed 81-65 by Ole Miss to fall to 7-4 in conference. They are 7-7 over their last 14 games overall. The Vols are still in decent shape, but with games still remaining against Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina they can still play themselves out of the tourney.
Speaking of South Carolina, losing to Mississippi State is not the way to play yourself onto the good side of the bubble. The Gamecocks still have some work to do over the next three weeks.
Ohio State is the same story; things were looking good until last night's surprising loss to Northwestern. With a few tips and breaks here and there, we wouldn't be talking about Ohio State's bad loss, but perhaps the Wildcats big win. Alas, that was a game the Buckeyes needed to stay in the Big Ten race.
Perhaps the worst loss of the night was Virginia Tech. The Hokies find themselves in the bubble muddle in the middle of the deep ACC along with Florida State, BC, Miami and Maryland. That made losing to in-state rival Virginia particularly damning for VA Tech.
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The headlines will all be clamoring about the "huge upset" of #1 Wake Forest. Don't let that fool you. Yes, Wake has been playing great ball, but by no means was this the construct of a team built to run the table. When Carolina fell at BC, Indiana's 32-year stranglehold on perfection remained safe.
If nothing else, last night's Virginia Tech victory told us two things; One, the ACC is good. Expect 6 or 7 teams to dance. Virginia Tech is in that mix, and last night's win helped advance that cause. Their record isn't stellar, but look at some of their losses (an OT loss to Xavier in Puerto Rico on a 50-foot buzzer beater). Two, parity is king this season. Last year all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four for the first time. Don't expect a repeat this season.
Relax Dino, It's Gonna be that kinda year...
Case in point; Arkansas defeated two Top Ten Big 12 frontrunners. The Hogs are now 0-3 in a "down" SEC. Boston College slayed UNC in shocking fashion. They then turned around and lost to Harvard. BC is at best a long shot to make the field of 65.
It is going to be a roller coaster ride to the finish, but as Dickie V so incessantly reminds us. "at least we find out the champion on the court."
Amen Dickie.
Wednesday Recap:
Clemson's pasting in Chapel Hill told the nation what Tiger fans were hoping to suppress; "here we go again." The Tigers were ranked as high as ninth, deservedly so, but after their past two less-than-impressive performances against the conference big boys their reputation takes a huge ding. Not only that, but if they suffer a few losses to the likes of Va Tech, NC State, Miami and FSU, "bubble" talk might be appropriate in Clemson.
How in the hell did Florida lose that game?? If you haven't seen it yet, check out the youtube clip. For South Carolina, it keeps their tourney hopes buoyant, as the SEC West looks dreadful, it is not impossible to sneak in four from the east...
The Mountain West is the best of the non-BCS conferences, however their balanced parity is going to cost them bids in March. UNLV pulled off a road win at BYU last night. Both of them appear to be in decent shape to dance, despite being unranked, but New Mexico, Utah and TCU will all provide tough competition to the end. The beatings they are giving each other could drive them all down to around 9-10 conference wins. That would necessitate winning the confernce tournament to enjoy a stress-free Selction Sunday. For the rest, that is an NIT equation.
Arizona is screwed. Last night's come-from-ahead loss to instate rival Arizona State dropped the Cats to 2-5 in Pac 1o play and a long way from the bubble. The rebuilding has officially begun, only it doesn't really seem as if "rebuilding" is the proper term. "Chaos" seems more apropos. I bet Brandon Jennings is ecstatic he (couldn't get admitted)chose to play overseas... I feel badly for Chase Buddinger. He is playing really well in what appears to be a historically poor season in Tuscon when he easily could have left for the NBA last season.
The A-10 might be Xavier and the dozen dwarfs, but the games are crazy exciting. Two more went to overtime last night, with Duquesne dropping a nail-biter to St. Joes 99-98, and Charlotte nipping UMass in OT. Add in Rhode Island losing by three at Richmond and you have one heck of a balanced league. And of course, just one NCAA bid.
The SEC West is winnable at 9-7. LSU pasted 3-0 Mississippi State last night. Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss are all over the place, and who knows what to make of Arkansas. In a year of parity, their is no better example of the grab-bag between #20 and #50 in the country than in the SEC West.
The MVC has a lot of good teams. However they appear to lack a great one. I wonder if the balance in the Big 10, ACC and depth in the Big East will leave two or three sitting on the sidelines in March. Illinois State, Creighton and Evansville appeared to be the strongest early on (with some consideration for Drake as well), however Northern Iowa has stormed out to a 7-1 conference record and a two-game lead on the field. The problem? They had five losses before entering conference play. Only Marquette was ranked (the others, Iowa,Iowa St, Illinois-Chicago and Wyoming). Not exactly the way to get multiple bids for a non BCS league. The MVC's conference tournament will not only be great basketball, but very meaningful hoops as well.
And how about the Northwestern Wildcats? They rewarded the Maniac's proclamation that the Minnesota loss to Northwestern was not a "bad loss" but rather a "good win" for a good Northwestern team with a road victory over conference-unbeaten Michigan State. With their next two contests against Michigan and Indiana, it is not ridiculous to think Northwestern could put themselves squarely in NCAA Tourney conversation. If you are scoring at home the Wildcats now have wins over Florida State, Minnesota and Michigan State, three teams likely dancing in March.
And as much as we have had some bumps and bruises since it first appeared likely... the dream of the February 11th #1 vs. #2 Duke - Carolina shootout still seems possible.
Cue Biggie "and another one, uh...and a another one..."
Has any man known more buzzer-beating heartbreak than Seth Greenberg? Last night he got his second dagger of the young season at the hands of Wisconsin's Trevor Hughes.
