Trouble Bubblin'? Michigan State Among Teams on the Slide

It's February, so all college hoops fans know the word de juor from here on out - that of course being the dreaded "bubble."  Nearly every conference is about at the halfway point and most teams across the country are gearing up for that all important (though the committee claims it officially doesn't matter...) ten game stretch run to the end of the season.

Should have set a wake-up call

In our first bubble update, we're going to focus on some teams who are sliding the wrong way.  There were more than a few of them tonight.

Baylor had a weird circumstance today, as their game was moved up to an early afternoon tip-off due to last night's contest in Norman being postponed by bad weather.  Perhaps someone should have told the Bears to get up a little early... They looked horribly flat and took a potentially devastating loss, 73-66 to Oklahoma.  The loss dropped Baylor to 14-7 (4-4).

It's odd to see Memphis lose a game in Conference USA.  It's really odd to see them suffer their second straight loss, on their home floor, to another opponent with no chance of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team.  But that's exactly what happened tonight.  The Tigers stole the ball with eight seconds to play and had two attempts at an overtime-forcing three, but when the second attempt clanged off the rim Tulsa escaped with a 68-65 win.  Memphis falls to 16-6 (5-3) and in some real danger of missing the tourney for a second straight year.

Kudos to Tom Crean and his suddenly competitive Hoosiers.  However, bad news for Minnesota who finds themselves back on the familiar bubble after dropping a should-win, even on the road, to IU.  Tubby's Gophers are still ranked in the Top 25, but at 16-6, and 5-5 in the Big Ten with upcoming games against Ohio State and Illinois, the Gophers are not on nearly as solid footing as one might think.

We feel your pain Tom...

Lastly, it's hard to even quantify the disaster that is coming to life to Tom Izzo and his Spartans.  Ranked in the Top 5 in the nation early in the season, things might have hit rock bottom tonight with their twenty point blowout loss at lowly Iowa.  It is only the second conference win on the season for the Hawkeyes, who climb to 9-13 with the win.


Michigan State failed to do something that South Dakota State accomplished to start this season; win in Carver-Hawkeye Arena.  It's beyond panic time in East Lansing.  With the loss the Spartans fall to 13-9, (5-5).  More troubling than their record, which is given some leeway with the tremendous strength of schedule, is their recent play.  The Spartans are 2-5 over the last seven games, with losses to three of the four worst teams in the conference; Iowa, Michigan and Penn State, and one of their two wins an overtime escape against the other cellar-dweller, Indiana.

Any responsible bracket projection done today has to exclude the Spartans, as bizarre as that is to type.  With two of their next three games AT Wisconsin (where no one ever wins)  and @ Ohio State (who is #1 in the nation) it is all but last-call for Sparty and their nearly two-decade long run of tourney appearances.

.

Can Penn State Make the Tourney?

Penn State struck again today.  This time the victim was #15 Wisconsin.  It is the third time in two weeks the Nittany Lions have knocked off a Top 25 opponent.  The question after the first upset was "how the heck did that happen?"  After the second it was, "can that really happen again?"

After the third, the question is now, "can Penn State actually make the NCAA Tournament?!?"

The answer is short, but not so simple; "probably not."

Even with the win today the Nittany Lions are still only 12-8, 5-4 in Big Ten play.  The dug themselves a pretty deep early hole with losses to Maine (ouch), Mississippi (less bad, but still 'ouch'), and a humiliating 62-39 loss to Maryland.

Taking a look at the Lions remaining schedule, let's assume they need to get to 18 wins (minimum) and then win at least one game in the conference tournament to merit at-large consideration.  That means they need AT LEAST six wins in their remaining contests.

Up next for Penn State is a tough trip to Illinois, followed by a visit from Michigan and a trip to Michigan State.  In all reality if they fail to get two of those three, it is probably curtains for the Nittany Lions.

Let's assume for arguement's sake they do pick up the two wins they need.  They would then need to steal four wins from the following list:  Northwestern, Minnesota, @Wisconsin, @Northwestern, Ohio State and @Minnesota.  They will likely be underdogs in five of those six games (possibly favored at home against Minnesota but not likely).

It's a very tough road ahead to Talor Battle and the Nittany Lions, but my best bet is they fall about one or two wins short and are left wondering what could have been... they are literally two plays away from being in the midst of a six game winning streak with five wins over ranked opponents.  Ohio State needed a late defensive stop to eek out a three point win at home, and Purdue beat the Lions on a baseline jumper at the buzzer, 63-62.  Win even one of those games, and the situation looks dramatically different.

.

Familiar Faces in Unfamiliar Places

Over the past ten or fifteen years there have been a few things relatively automatic when it comes to the NCAA Tournament.  Someone seeded #13 or higher will capture the nation's fancy by delivering the miracle moment that has made the NCAA Tournament (along with gambling in office pools) the magical nation-captivating event it is.  Two or three teams and coaches (see: Seth Greenberg, Jim Boeheim) will whine about the unjustness of their snub from the field.  And Michigan State, Gonzaga and Butler will be somewhere in the Field of 64 (or 65).

The first two are still almost givens.  The last?  Difficult as it may be to process, is far from a given this season

Michigan State is reaching the time of the season when Coach Izzo traditionally begins circling the wagons and gear his Spartans up for their magical run at the Final Four.  After last night's stunning home loss to Michigan, the Spartans are in real jeopardy of being excluded from the field all together.  Their schedule has been as brutal as always; with four preconference losses to Connecticut, @Duke, @Syracuse and Texas.  Not only are those not bad losses, it wouldn't be surprising if those four teams comprised the Final Four.

Sparty's recent losses to Penn State and Michigan are the cause for pause.  The Spartans record is now just 12-8 and 4-4 in Big Ten play.  They still have trips remaining to Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State and Wisconsin and visits from Purdue and Ohio State.  For arguements sake, let's say they beat all the teams they are supposed to, and fail to win more than one or two of the aforementioned tricky games.  That would leave the Spartans at 17-13 or 18-12.  If they were to lose the opener in the Big Ten tourney, their spot on the bubble would be quite a precarious one.

Gonzaga and Butler also have a hill to climb over the next four weeks if they plan on continuing their "major conference" reputations, despite playing in mid-major leagues. 

Last night Mickey McConnell's buzzer beating runner gave St. Mary's their first win in Spokane in fifteen years.  The loss dropped Gonzaga to just 13-8 and a surprising 3-3 in the WCC.  St. Mary's now leads the Zags by three full games in the conference and all but ended Gonzaga''s decade-long stranglehold on the conference crown.  The Zags should go no worse than 8-2 down the stretch which would have them at 21-10, and likely safe.  However there is little room for another "bad loss" like the one they surrended to San Fransisco earlier this week.  February 5th's visit from Memphis will be absolutely enormous for both teams in their fight to make the tourney.

It's a very similar situation for Butler.  They got a little help when Valpo suffered a surprising loss to drop to 7-2, pulling Butler one game back in the loss column, behind Valpo and Cleveland State.  Butler, like the Zags played a brutal non-conference schedule.  They have quality losses to Xavier, Duke and Louisville.  Those don't hurt too badly.  However conferences losses to Wright State and being swept by middle of the pack Milwaukee shrinks the Bulldogs remaining margin for error.

My gut feel is that all three make the tourney, but it is going to be a very interesting, and nerve-racking final month of the season for all three.

10 Under the Tree - The Early Season's Most Interesting Storylines are the Perfect Christmas Gift

Each year as the calendar reaches Christmas and lunges forward toward the new year, the national landscape has inevitably shifted dramatically from what all the "geniuses" and "experts" had just mere months ago believed to be true.  There are always a few pleasant surprises and a few disappointments, and with respect to Denny Green, some teams "are who we thought they were."

Take Duke for example.  The Devils entered the season at #1 and have done nothing to even remotely dissuade the pollsters.  Even with the uncertainty surrounding freshman point guard sensation Kyrie Irving's toe it is hard to compile any form of rankings that doesn't have the Blue Devils atop the list.  Their schedule may not have been the most difficult, but with wins over Michigan State, Kansas State, Butler and Marquette it's hard to argue they haven't been tested.  Even Duke's gimme games are against better opponents than some of the Big 12 and BEast giants have fattened up on.

For the most part, the power conferences expected to be strong have not disappointed.  The Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East comprise more than 60% of this week's Top 25, and each have several additional teams sitting right on the cusp of the Top 25.

In fact, after Butler's celebrated "rise of the little guys "run last March, this season is as devoid of any non-BCS conference contenders as any in recent memory.  Butler, Xavier and Gonzaga, three of the most reliable mid-majors, have all struggled and are considerably off their recent top form.  Memphis, who despite never being lumped in with the other "mid-majors" is coming off a season where they missed the tourney for the first time in nearly a decade.   If this season's struggles continue, they might soon find themselves lumped in with the other have-nots in terms of public perception, relegated to "Mid Major Top 10's" and other such previously "beneath them" relegations.  Second tier mid-major darlings like Siena, Creighton, Virginia Commonwealth, Winthrop, and Davidson all seem devoid of the magic that lingered over the past few seasons.   Sadly, the national landscape is significantly lacking in mid-major excitement.

For better or worse, let's take a look at March Maniac's 10 Most Intriguing Story lines of the young season:

10.  UCF Cracks Top 25 - Watching Marcus Jordan and the Knights vanquish instate foes Florida, Miami and South Florida it is hard to imagine how the coaches had them tabbed 10th in the preseason C-USA poll.  Yes, Conference USA is deeper and much improved, with Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB and UTEP all solid.  It is still evident the coaches really fanned on this one.  With four quality wins under their belts already, it isn't out of the realm of possibility the Knights could qualify as an at-large selection if need be come March.

9.  The SEC Worst...er "West" - Thank goodness for the East or else the SEC would have a difficult time contending they are even among the top 10 conferences in the country.  Ole Miss and Mississippi State could be decent, the same goes for Arkansas...however the fact remains that these six collectively already boast losses North Texas, Nicholls State, Coastal Carolina, Samford, UNC Ashville, Campbell, Presbyterian, Florida Atlantic, St. Peters's and East Tennessee State.  Auburn and Alabama have been abysmal, LSU has stunk even with their typical lousy schedule.  Ditto for Arkansas.  It's looking like a long wait until football season for a lot of fans in SEC country.

8.  The Toe You Know - Two months ago, Kyrie Irving was relatively unknown outside of die-hard college hoop fans.  After exploding on the scene against Kansas State and Michigan State, thoroughly outplaying All-Americans Jacob Pullen and Kalin Lucas in the process, Kyrie was edging himself into national POY status - despite sharing the Duke spotlight with established stars like Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.

Now, the prospects of Duke making a run at perfection seems to hinge largely on the "will he, won't he" return status around his nebulous injured toe. 

Regardless of how it shakes out, here's hoping we get to see Kyrie one more year in Durham playing alongside Austin Rivers and all three Plumlee boys...

7.  The BEast Still Roars - There was some speculation that this might be a down year for the Big East, or at least a year when the Big Ten and Big 12 can borrow a little of the shine.   As Big Ten alumnus Lee Corso likes to say, "not so fast my friend!"

Of the seven remaining undefeated teams in the nation, three reside in the BEast.  What makes that even more impressive is that these three do NOT include Pitt, Georgetown or Villanova, all who possess the talent to land in the Final Four.  UConn and Syracuse have dazzled this year, not only winning every game but beating quality opponents convincingly.  Cincinnati is one of the nation's surprises at 12-0.  The Bearcats take some knocks for the light schedule, but I became a believer after watching them double up a quality Dayton club 68-34.

Add in Louisville, West Virginia, Marquette and Notre Dame who have all played fantastic and you are once again looking at a league with nine or ten elite ballclubs.

Aside from St. John's and seemingly permanently sluggish DePaul, it's hard to label any team in the BEast a disappointment thus far in 2010.

6.  Freshman Leading the Way - Take a look at the top of the polls and you'll find a number of elite teams  being led by some simply stunning freshman.  Jared Sullinger has Ohio State looking like the team most capable of taking down the Dukies.  If I had a ballot (still waiting for mine...hmmm), Sullinger is my vote for National POY.  Duke's Kyrie Irving has been flawless (get well soon Kyrie), and Kentucky has an entirely new cast of characters, but is achieving the same fantastic results, powered largely by three freshman including standout PF Terrance Jones.

Don't be surprised if the year ends with at least two freshman on the All-American team

5.  Carolina Blues - Last year's fiasco was supposed to be a quick blip on the radar, a one season anomaly to be erased completely this Fall with the arrival of freshman phenom Harrison Barnes.  To this point, Barnes has struggled mightily and the Tarheels are plagued by the same problems as a year ago; terrible play from the point and the lack of consistent offensive production from their wings.  Carolina salvaged what could have been a disastrous preconference season with the win over Kentucky, but at 8-4 and their second-best win a squeaker over Charleston at home they need to go at least 10-8 in ACC play to get a tourney invite.  Someone send Roy a box of Kleenex for Christmas... he might really need 'em.

4.  Speaking of the ACC...and Who Would Want To? - The WCC has long been known as "Gonzaga and the Other Guys."  This year, the ACC might more aptly fit the bill, substitute "Duke" for Gonzaga.  Virginia Tech was allegedly the second best team in the conference.  They raised their level of schedule this year, in response to being narrowly omitted from the past two NCAA tournaments.  Schedule strength only helps if you win a few of the games.  At 7-4, the Hokies find themselves in all-too-familiar territory; needing to win in conference to avoid popping once again on the dreaded bubble.

3.  Kings of the Mountain - Move over Pac-10, the Mountain West is clearly the class of the West this year.  San Diego State has risen all the way to #7 in the polls and the ranking isn't a fluke.  Kawhi Leonard and company are big, quick and deep enough to make a serious run at the Final Four. 

BYU returns senior scoring machine Jimmer Fredette, and UNLV has navigated an extremely challenging preconference schedule pretty well with wins over VA Tech, Kansas State and Wisconsin, and a quality loss to Louisville on the road.  The one point loss to UCSB is a head scratcher, but as we like to remind folks on March Maniacs, nearly every teams will use their mulligan somewhere along the way. 

Even New Mexico, Utah and Air Force put decent squads on the floor making the MWC not only the best conference out west, but arguably the fourth best conference in the country this season.  (Behind only Big 12, Big Ten and the BEast).

2.  The Benefits and the Doubt - Improper benefits have been the buzzword this season in college hoops.  Let's hope there aren't many more to deal with before tourney time, but it seems inevitable one or two more issues will crop up.  Enis Kanter was denied eligibility by the NCAA, and unless a surprising reversal occurs in the next week, Kentucky will never get the 7-foot Turkish big man into Wildcat blue.  Josh Selby's much anticipated debut had to wait until last week before the Kansas PG was cleared to play after serving his
suspension for accepting improper benefits (to the tune of less than $1,000 in travel allowance). 

Tennessee finds themselves in the most unique predicament, as Bruce Pearl has been suspended by the SEC (not the NCAA) for the first eight games of conference play.  Due to a scheduling anomaly, Pearl WILL coach the UConn game that falls in the midst of the first eight conference games.  For everyone's sake, let's hope the talk from here on out focuses more ON the court and a whole lot less on what is happening off it.

1.  Can Duke Run the Table and Repeat as National Champs?

Before Kyrie Irving injured his toe, I would have contended not only do they have a shot, I think they will in fact run the table.  I wrote as much in a column immediately after the Kansas State game.  Not only is Duke a very complete a ballclub this year, the ACC is truly lousy and devoid of a worthy rival.

After the injury?  I'm still not backing off.  Duke can run the table and be the first undefeated National Champ since Bobby Knight's Hoosiers 35 years ago.  With Nolan Smith, Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry the Blue Devils still have plenty of ball handling and perimeter offense.  Placing Kyle Singler at the four essentially gives them a fourth point guard to help handle any pressure and create good looks at the basket.

I love this team and how it is constructed.  The most interesting thing about Duke?  They won the title last year.  This year's team is better.  Next year?  The team will be EVEN BETTER than this squad with the arrival of Austin Rivers and the third Plumlee brother (a 7-footer to boot!)

Duke has several landmines they'll need to avoid; Carolina on the road is an electric environment and a rivalry game where you can throw out the team's records and know a battle is coming.  Likewise trips to Florida State have historically given Coach K fits.  I don't see any game for the rest of the regular season in which the Devils won't be considerable favorites heading into the game.  Perfection is within their grasp, even if Kyrie doesn't return.

Big Ten Looks to Start a New Trend in ACC Challenge

Last season the Big Ten laid to rest the seemingly eternal streak of ACC dominance.  Winning last year's challenge was the first time the Big Ten had done so since the series inception more than a decade ago.

Last year's triumph may have been a minor upset, but in order for the ACC to get back on top it is going to take an upset of their own.  For perhaps the first time in the Challenge era, the Big Ten is clearly superior.

Here's a quick breakdown of the matchups, along with some fearless prognostications:

MONDAY:

Virginia @ Minnesota:  Tubby's Gophers have been one of the pleasant surprises of the early season, winning their preseason tourney by downing North Carolina and West Virginia.  They also handled solid mid-majors Wofford, Western Kentucky and Siena, all with relative ease.  They should cruise at home against the Cavaliers.

TUESDAY:

Iowa @ Wake Forest:  Both teams have been dreadful in the early going and look like cellar dwellars in their respective leagues.  I'll take Wake, who I think is a little better than they have played, at home over the Hawkeyes.

Georgia Tech @ Northwestern:  The Wildcats their first real test of the season.  I like them over the Jackets in a close game.

Ohio State @ Florida State:  The Buckeye's were #2 in our preseason poll, and remain the most legitimate challenger (along with Kansas) to the Blue Devils hopes to repeat.  Florida State lacks the offensive punch to score with a very balanced Buckeye attack.

Michigan @ Clemson:  This is a game the Tigers need to win if the ACC has any chance of pulling out the challenge.  I think they will, but this one could be really ugly.  Both teams are sloppy with the ball an inefficient offensively.

North Carolina @ Illinois:  Illinois is one of the quietest good teams in the country. They dropped to #20 after losing an intense game to Texas.  Look for the Illini to exploit Carolina's ballhandling and passing woes into easy buckets and an easy win.

WEDNESDAY:
Indiana @ Boston College:  This is a huge opportunity for the Hoosiers to take the next step in their rebuilding journey and validate their early unbeaten creampuff-aided record.  BC has played in more competitive games early, and that is an advantage, but I still like the Hoosiers to get an upset win on the road.

North Carolina State @ Wisconsin:  The Badgers just do not lose in the Kohl Center.  They won't tonight either.  Give me Bucky in a win over better-than-advertised NC State.

Purdue @ Virginia Tech:  VA Tech might be the second best team in the ACC (hence my 'Can Duke Run the Table' columns).  Purdue is taking some flack for losing to Richmond the other day, but Richmond is a legit Top 20 team.  To me, not as concerning a loss as it seemed on the surface.  Despite the loss of Hummel, Purdue remains Top 10-Top 15 talented with JuJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore.  I like the Boilermakers in the road, stiffling Malcoln Delaney and the Hokies.  This is probably the second best game of the series, I wouldn't miss this one.


Maryland @ Penn State:  This is why God created ESPN-U.  So you and I could watch games like this while 99.9% of the nation could care less.  Maryland is my sleeper pick in the ACC.  I watched them frustrate Pitt for 40 minutes.  Once they figure out who their primary ballhandler is going to be, the Terps could surprise some folks and make the tourney.  Penn State is awful, but enjoy Talor Battle for one more season.  The do-everything guard for the Nittany Lions is one of the most exciting players in the country.  That said, I'll take the Terps on the road.

Michigan State @ Duke:  This is the marquee matchup, and we'll devote a column to it on Wednesday.  I won't give away my pick, but I'm sure you can guess....

OVERALL:  I have the Big Ten winning 7-4 on my fight card. 

.

Opening Statement

Welcome to college basketball stardom Jared Sullenger.

The Buckeye freshman exploded onto the stage last night, dropping 26 & 12 as the fifth ranked Buckeyes (2nd in our Bracketeering) laid the lumber to the Gators in Gainesville.

Granted, the Gators are probably not meritorious of a top ten ranking, but they are a NCAA tourney team returning all five starters playing at home to a sellout crowd. However, it was Ohio State that looked like the poised, veteran ballclub.

The game was close at halftime. Five minutes into the second half, it was a different story.

The reason why? Ohio State is going to be terrific this year. As the media machine machine begins to pump up Sullenger, it might be easy to overlook the glue to this year's team, David Lighty. If you are heading into a game against the buckeyes, I wouldn't recommend it. David Lighty is a well-seasoned leader,really well seasoned. Many might have forgotten he played a key reserve role as a lock-down defender in the National Championship Game. Huh? Yep. He was on the same team that boasted NBA one-and-doner's Greg Oden, Michael Conley and Daquan Cook. If it feels like Lighty has been in Colombus for a really, really long time... it's because he HAS.

As a matter of fact, this year's Buckeye squad reminds me a little bit of the Gator team that bested them to cut down the nets in 2006-2007. Lighty fits nicely in the role of Corey Brewer, while Sullinger can plug into the Al Horford role (more refined offensive game, and not quite as dominant a rebounder). Ohio State has a stable of athletic, defense/rebound first bigs who mimic the production and energy of Joakim Noah. Diebler gives the Bucks a gasp out loud every time he catches the ball open on the arc shooter, much in the way Lee Humphrey spread defenses for Billy Donovan.

Both teams, in addition to great talent, had players ideally suited to fulfill individual defined roles with aplomb (similar to Syracuse last year).

It's just one game, but it's a heck of an opening statement for Ohio State. If forced to gaze into the Maniac Crystal Ball, I'd put them on par with Duke, even up with Michigan State and better than Kansas State, Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky, Pitt,Syracuse; anyone you want to throw out there.

For the Gators? Their opening impression is every bit as frightening as OSU's was energizing. As I wrote before the game, returning all five starters isn't as good of news as it might seem if none of those five starters were that outstanding to begin with. Florida has a good shot to make the tourney in a still-down SEC, however I'd be very surprised to see them playing after the tourney's opening weekend.



. Tweet

Big Six All-Conference Teams - One Month to Go

Here's the Maniac's take on the All-Conference races down the stretch.  Conference POY's bolded.

ACC First Team

G - Malcolm Delaney

G - John Scheyer
G - Grevies Vasquez
F - Al-Farouq Aminu
F - Gani Lawal

Second Team

G-Sylvan Landsberg
G - Nolan Smith
F - Kyle Singler
F - Trevor Booker
F - Tracy Smith (NC State)

Big Ten First Team
G - Kalin Lucas
G - E'Twan Moore
G - Demerti McCamey
F - Evan Turner
F - Robbie Hummel

Second Team:

G - Talor Battle
G - Trevon Hughes
F - John Shurna
F - Manny Harris
F - JuJuan Johnson

Big EAST First Team:

G - Scottie Reynolds (Nova)
G - Dominique Jones (USF)
F -Wesley Johnson (Syracuse)
F - Da'Sean Butler (WVU)
F/C - Luke Harangody (ND)

Second Team:

G - Jerome Dyson (UConn)
G - Ashton Gibbs  (Pitt)
G - Jeremy Hazell (Seton)
F - Lazar Haywood (Marq.)
F - Greg Monroe (G'Town)

Big Twelve First Team:

G - Sherron Collins (KU)
G - Jacob Pullen (KSU)
F - James Anderson (OK St)
F - Damion James (Texas)
F - Ekpe Udoh (Baylor)

Second Team:

G - Denis Clemente (KSU)
G - Tweety Carter (Baylor)
G - Lacedarius Dunn (Baylor)
F - Marcus Morris (KU)
C - Cole Alderich (KU)

SEC First Team:

G -John Wall (UK)

G - Devan Downey (USC)
G - Courtney Fortson (Ark)
F -  Patrick Patterson (UK)
C - DeMarcus Cousins (UK)

Second Team:

G - Chris Warren (Miss)
G - Eric Bledsoe (UK)
F - Tasmin Mitchell (LSU)
F - Wayne Chism (Tenn)
C - Jarvis Varnado (Miss St.)

Atlantic 10 First Team:
G - Shamari Spears (Char)

G - Chris Wright (Dayton)
G/F - Jordan Crawford (Xav)
F -  Damian Saunders (Duq)
F - Lavoy Allen (Temple)

Second Team:

G - Kevin Anderson (Richmond)
G -  Ricky Harris (UMass)
G - Ryan Harrs (Temple)
F - Chris Gaston (Fordham)
C - Jason Love (Xav)

Non - BCS All Americans

G - Matt Boldin (Gonzaga)

G - Jimmer Fredette (BYU)
F - Landry Fields (Stanford)
F - Luke Babbit (Nevada)
C - Omar Samhan (St. Mary)

Second Team:

G - Elias Harris (Gonzaga)
G - Elliot Williams (Memphis)
G - Aubrey Coleman (Houston)

F - Artsiom Parakhouski (Radford)
F - Gordon Hayward (Butler)

Yes, I'm aware of the omission.  Dude, it's funny...seriously...

The Player of the Year and the Most Important Player You Aren't Talking About

Evan Turner has been March Maniac's pick for National POY for the entire season, and we ain't changing for John Wall anytime soon.

However, perhaps the most important player in the country you haven't heard much about will be playing on the other side tonight when Purdue brings their #4 ranking into Colombus tonight to battle the Bucks for the Big Ten lead.  No, it's not Robbie Hummel, despite what nearly every Purdue game promo might lead you to believe.  (have you noticed that?  Every time Purdue is going to be on it's "Robbie Hummel and the Purdue Boilermakers...)  Hummel is a very good player.  E'Twaun Moore has the ability to be special and be the difference maker in helping this team get to Indianapolis in April.

Against Michigan State last week, Moore simply took over the game for a crucial three minute stretch late in the second half when the Spartans were beginning to wrestle back some momentum.  He showed signs of being a player that can throw a team on his back and win them a ballgame.

He might need to tonight in Colombus - either way, I really like both of these teams for March.  I've written extensively about both - so no official pick tonight, just enjoy a really high level college basketball game.

Introducing Demitri McCamey

First things first, what a GREAT win for the Illini tonight at Wisconsin.  No one wins at Wisconsin.  The win puts them in a big log jam tie for first if Purdue can clip Sparty tonight.  Either way it absolutely punches Illinois' ticket to the Dance.  It gives them nine wins in league and makes it a virtual certainty they finish well over .500 in league play.  Add in the wins over Clemson and Vanderbilt and they are sitting pretty. 

Now let's talk Big Ten POY.  Everyone knows Evan Turner.  Most people know Kalin Lucas and Robbie Hummel.  Let me introduce you to a new entrant to the mix; Demetri McCamey.

He is averaging 15.5 points, over 6 assists and 3.5 boards a night.  More importantly, he is absolutely shouldering the load for the Illini on their surprising run at the Big Ten title.  Tonight he simply willed Illinois past Wisconsin in a building they have already slain giants like Duke, Michigan State and Purdue.  In the 63-56 win McCamey had 27 points on 11 of 16 shooting.  More impressivly he had seven of the team's eight assists.  That means he accounted for 43 of his team's 63 points, or more than 70%.  He WAS Illinois tonight.

Correction, he WAS first place Illinois tonight..

Bo Knows Whoopin' Sparty

If only not for my vain need to flaunt convention and be oh-so-super smart, a perfect night of picks was in hand...ah to sleep perchance to dream (quote is from Role Models, not Shakespeare...losers).

Forget the three wins (you're welcome).  Let's talk about the one that got away.

First off, is there anything more predictable than watching Wisconsin make a "better" team look utterly and completely clueless in the Kohl Center?  First Duke, then Purdue, now red-hot Michigan State have all felt Bucky's sting when entering his damn; er, dam.  So, what did we learn about each team from tonight's game?

Strangely enough, very little.  I have gotten to the point where I just throw out road losses to Wisconsin.  It doesn't make Purdue or Michigan State any less capable of getting to Indy in April.  It doesn't eliminate Duke as a Final Four contender.  No, the latter was done by Georgetown sending a huge 'flashback to last march' reminder that the Devils still have a devil of a time defending athletic, versatile fours.  On the brightside they might have made sophomore Greg Monroe a few extra million dollars this Summer.

Back to Bucky.  One thing I did take away from the game was an interesting post-game comment from Coach Bo Ryan, where he immediately, and nearly completely credited the win and the frequent success against State to his assistant coach.  Erin Andrews looked perpelexed by this answer, but it actually makes a ton of sense.  Michigan State is excellent with creating mismatches and overloads through on the ball screens. It gives their guards room to create off the dribble (especially Kalin Lucas) and forces help to come.  This leads to easy shots.  There is a reason why Michigan seems to have very balanced scoring every season. Wisconsin not only hedged over those screens, in many cases they flat out "jumped the route" to borrow a football term.  All this means is that they simply refused to let the screener get to the ball and get set.  This creates a lack of sync in the offense (which was obvious committing 13 turnovers to Wisconsin's 5), and over-reliance on tough outside shots (often contested, they shot just 22% from 3-point range), and an lack of quality shots, which leads to numbers advantages heading the opposite direction.  In fact, if not for Michigan States superior athleticism on the glass (11 offensive rebounds) the result would have been even worse.

The synopsis of a long answer: coaching matters, and few in the country do it better than Bo Ryan.  I honestly think a team like Michigan State with the constant ball screening would create sever difficulties in March for a lot of teams far more "talented" than Wisconsin; say Kentucky for example.  Michigan State is one of the best seven or eight teams in the country, no doubt.  So, yes, coaching matters.  And if Bo Ryan says his assistant coach is the best in the country, well, frankly I'm inclined to believe him.

The other thing to take away from this game?  The Big Ten will be fun in February.  Both Ohio State and Purdue benefited tonight, joining Wisconsin at just two games back of Michigan State.  Purdue still plays the Spartans twice, and already took their obligatory Kohl Center loss on the chin.   It will be intersting down the stretch with four good teams slugging it out for the Big Ten title and top seeds in March.

I'm pretty sure Spartan fans know exactly where that fist went tonight...

Working Overtime - A Chaotic Saturday in College Hoops

Just in case you needed any more proof that this year's tourney is as unpredictable as any in recent memory, with no clear cut favorites, take a quick sampling of some of this afternoon's contests.

Texas and Kentucky remained the nation's only two unbeatens, but you'd be hard pressed to call them the nation's clear two best teams.  For the second time this week Kentucky looked lackluster, struggling to put away a lower-echelon and NIT-at-BEST conference foes.  Today they let Auburn hang around until the final minutes before a few John Wall blow-byes sealed the deal.  They seem ripe for a loss, though to this point it has been the better teams have brought out the Cats' edge.  Perhaps it will be one of the lesser foes that get them (Arkansas?  @South Carolina?)  They have let Miami (OH), Georgia, and now Auburn play them tight for 39 minutes, yet handled UConn, Louisville and Florida with aplomb.  Lack of focus?  Perhaps it is simply parity, parity, parity.

Texas can let out a Texas-sized sigh of relief after dodging a bullet at home against Texas A&M.  The Aggies led for 39 minutes, all but the most important final one; before the Longhorns forced OT and gabbed the win.  This is not a new trend for the Horns either, as more than a few unranked opponents (though A&M is a good tourney-likely ballclub) hang around until the final few minutes.  Like Kentucky, they have brought their A-game for A-opponents.  The Horns better Monday when they visit Kansas State in Manhattan, or they will leave with their first loss.

The BEast continues to roar with seemingly every game being a fantastic gut-wrencher.  The season kicked off before the new year giving us a West Virginia over Seton Hall OT thriller.  Today?  Syaracuse wins by 1 at West Virginia, Pitt need OT to stave off Louisville (and remain 5-0 in conference), and Notre Dame gets clipped by two in their road upset bid of Cincinnati.  Only Villanova and Pitt remain unbeaten, and legitimatly 11 teams in this league are easily among the Top 65.  Will all eleven gets bids?  Of course not, but those last two are three are going to be one heck of a fight that will likely not be decided until Madison Square Garden.

Not wanting to be left out of the OT party, the SEC handed out an absolute thriller in Knoxville.  While one can debate the meritoriousness, considering the situation that derived the predicament, the Vols are undeniably becoming a team of national curiosity.  Not only are they a good story, they are also the hottest team in the country.  The orange surge continued today with a scintillating win over Ole Miss that took 45 minutes to decide.

Want some more parity?  Georgia Tech and Syracuse eeked out final possession wins over highly rated conference foes on the road (UNC and WVU), yet both have lost home games to unranked opponents in the past two weeks (in the 'Cuse defense, Pitt is Top-15 as of today).  

Clemson looked like world beaters against UNC earlier this week and again for 35 minutes today against NC State.  Then a 19 point lead evaporated into a "glad that desperation three came up short" three point win.  NC State beat Georgia Tech last week.  And lost to Florida on a 60 foot buzzer beater... Seriously, you figure out the ACC.  The only team that seems to be fully clicking is... Virginia?  Yep.  After an 18-point win over Miami (exposed this week much?  Wow.)  the Cavs are the only 3-0 team in the league.  Are they better than Duke?  Not a chance.  But it might be time to start paying attention to the Cavs in the wacky 2010 ACC.

What I do know about the ACC?  Teams are going to continue to pressure Carolina until there is some indication Larry Drew can handle it.  So far, so bad for the sophomore point guard.  The more the pressure turns him over, the more he seems to be pressing.  He really looked rough down the stretch toda against Tech.  It looks to me like Roy Williams is desperately searching for a combination that works, and will have to do it with the Heels unranked for the first time as of Monday (assuming voters have any sense at all...)

And what is going on in Boiler country?  Since writing my well-researched proclamation on the Boilers Final Four-worthiness, they haven't won a single game, going from undefeated to seventh place in the Big Ten in the span of ten days.  Tonight's loss at Northwestern isn't a back-breaker, but a number one seed is starting to slip away.  Michigan State handled their biz today, handing Illinois their first conference loss in moving to 5-0.  This puts Sparty a full three games ahead of Purdue (granted, they still play twice), and I find it hard to believe the committee will reward a number one seed to a team that fails to win their conference (other than the obvious 1-2 in the Big 12 and possibly the BEast).

Parity is running wild, in every conference large and small.  This week's Bracketeering is going to be based a lot on subjective matters and eye-ball tests and hypothesis and is sure to raise a few eyebrows and arguments.

Not that we'd want it any other way.

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Welcome to 2010 Baby

New Year. New Decade. And an incredible slate of college hoops to start it off right. This weekend will give hoops fans an opportunity to most of the nation's best teams (except Texas, who did it last week) get tested.

The game of the day features more than just great hoops. It features the greatest intensifier of all; good old fashioned hate. Rick Pitino visits his old stompin' grounds of hallowed Rupp Arena tomorrow in a position his Cards haven't been in for several years; trying to spring the upset on the heavily favored 'Cats. To add even a little more spice to the day, Calipari was recently the target of some rather pointed criticism by Bobby Knight, while Rick Pitino's offseason read like a John Grisham novel. In fact, it prompted one of the best shirts I've ever seen; sported by a Card fan it read simply "at least our coach only cheats OFF the court." Twisted, but inspired to say the least...

Yes Rick, all eyes on you indeed...

Gotta love the passion down in the Bluegrass. Kentucky is favored by 8, and despite the margin it will be the best test of tournament-style intensity the Cats have faced this year. Carolina and UCONN were great wins, but the volume and magnitude of this game is a great introduction to the passion of March for freshman Bledsoe, Cousins and Wall. Should the Cats survive the Cards and a Jan 12th trip to Gainesville, expect the "undefeated" talk to really ratchet up a notch...

Kansas plays their first real game of the year and gets a chance to finally shut The Maniac up about their soft road thus far. The Jayhawks travel to Philly to face red-hot Temple (5:30 EST) and their tempo-controlling style. The 'Hawks have more talent, but how will they handle their first true test outside of the Phogg? If the Owls can pull one of the first legit "upsets" of this young season (sidenote: Saw a headline on a major sports site, claiming "Bearcats STUN #10 UConn at the buzzer" Holy hyperbole Batman!) they can start looking at a Top 10 ranking and begin thinking Top 4 seed in March...

UConn and Syracuse have quality ballgames, though it might constitute an "off game" by brutal Big East standards. Both play at home, hosting Notre Dame and Pitt respectivly. Meanwhile Villanova takes a tricky trip to Marquette, who will be trying to regroup after gagging one up in West Virginia earler this week. Every day is a good day in the Big East. Don't be surprised if one, or all, of these games is closer than expected.

UAB has an interesting trip to Arkansas Saturday. Should the Hogs beat them, the Blazers will have dropped back-to-backers to UVA and Arkansas; two of the bottom teams in the BCS conferences. That wouldn't bode particularly well for Conference USA, especially after Houston lost to Texas-San Antonio tonight at home.

Big Ten play continues as well after an already-eventful start when Michigan State heads to Northwestern. Should Northwestern fall, they can kiss their brief time in the Top 25 goodbye...and also might begin to worry about their tourney prospects with their schedule not relenting anytime soon (and an 0-2 Big Ten start).

Tomorrow also features a real bevy of late, quality, non-conference tilts. Baylor at South Carolina is a nice matchup of bubble-caliber teams from good, multi-bid leagues. Gonzaga at Illinois is yet another stiff test for the Zags. They looked great last night hammering Oklahoma, but will they have enough gas in the tank against an Illini squad that can ill-afford another setback?

Oklahoma State takes a daring trip to Rhode Island tomorrow evening. Kudos to the Cowboys for playing a game like this against a smaller-name, very solid A-10 team. The A-10 has quite a day lined up with some Big Six foes. Charlotte will be hosting ACC Georgia Tech to round out the trifecta. It will be interesting to see how all three handle the opportunity.

I,m not sure if any cable outlet in America will be providing the 4pm game between William & Mary and Hofstra, but at this point I feel obligated to keep you updated on the Tribe. They are seeking to follow up their Maryland road win with another tough, albeit less glamorous, road win. This is a classic trap game, with Hofstra not expected to be among the CAA elite, but the kind of game you need to win if you want to be a serious at-large contender. By the way, not sure it means much right now (and of course it will drop as conference play lowers their strength of schedule) but W&M is 6th in the RPI as the calendar flips to 2010. Just thought you'd like to know.

Home of the nation's #6 team?? It's pretty early to look at RPI's...but still worth taking notice

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

New Year's Conference Resolutions: Big Ten

Here's the first of ten conference installments of some New Year's Resolutions and Prognostications. As always, your dissension is welcomed...

BIG TEN:

The Big Ten had all the makings of the best conference in the country heading into the season. Legit Final Four contenders? Purdue & Michigan State. National Player of the Year candidate? Evan Turner of Ohio State more than fit the bill. Tons of tourney caliber teams? Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State & Minnesota all were ranked preseason, with Wisconsin entering shortly after beating Duke early. Penn State was fresh off their NIT championship and Northwestern was entertaining dreams of their first ever NCAA tourney appearance. Heck, optimism was even high down in Bloomington with the rebuilding Hoosiers.

So what happened?

Michigan State got routed by North Carolina, Texas and lost to middling Florida. Ohio State lost Evan Turner to a broken back (amazing as it sounds, he will likely be back this season), Minnesota has struggled on the court and off, Michigan has been a disaster and Illinois has been disappointing. Penn State may not even be good enough to get back to the NIT to defend their crown and Indiana will need another year of rebuilding before being relevant.

In short, the Big Ten's shortfalls continue to glare compared to the bright lights of the Big East, ACC and Big 12 for yet another year.

Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:

The Good:
Purdue looks fantastic, and a legit contender to get to Indy. I can't see them any lower than a #2 or #3 seed come March, and I wouldn't bet against a #1 (the win over WVU in the hip pocket). They have good veteran leadership and much like Florida 2006-07, a fantastic understanding of their individuals roles within the team construct.

I'd never bet against Tom Izzo and Michigan State in March. They do it every year, and have more than enough talent to get back to yet another Final Four.

If Ohio State gets back a healthy Even Turner they can be a real sleeper. I thought they were a legit third contender to win the Big Ten before the injury, and are of course a completely different team without him. Unfortunately Turner might return a little too late to salvage a decent seed.

I like Wisconsin's chances getting back to the dance as well. Every year Wisconsin is supposed to be down. Every year Bo Ryan's Badgers defend on the court, defend their home court, and defend their NCAA consecutive appearance streak. It's going to happen again this year.

The Unknown:
Tubby has had a tumultuous off season with his Minnesota Gophers and a rough November. Consecutive losses to Portland, Texas A&M and Miami dropped them off the national radar and left them with only a quality win over Butler for the resume. They are 10-3 and healthy and poised to make a run. I think Tubby's Gophers get it going and finish a solid 5th.

I'm not sure what to make of Illinois. My gut feeling is they are on the outside looking in come March. They've lost to Bradley, a bad Georgia team and a terrible Utah club. Those are going to be tough losses to overcome without ten wins in conference. The opening win over Northwestern helps, but I think they come up short.

Speaking of Northwestern, the Wildcats made their first appearance in the Top 25...and promptly followed it up with a loss to the Illini. Sentiment has me pulling for the Wildcats. Logic tells me they come up just a bit short...again. Check out the upcoming schedule: @ Mighigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, @Ohio State, Illinois, @Minnesota, @Michigan State. Wow. Win even three of these and we'll talk tourney. Find me three games they will be favored in on that slate...

Penn State is a major disappointment to me. The Nittany Lions and Talor Battle just haven't conjured up the magic this year. Early losses to Tulane and NC Wilmington put a ton of pressure on them to go over .500 in conference. It ain't happenin'

Michigan remains the biggest enigma. They are easily tourney-talented. Then the lose their opener to Indiana. Not a way to statr if you have serious aspirations in March. They are 6-6 with a bad loss to Utah and questionable losses to Alabama and Indiana. That leaves a lot of work to do in Ann Arbor. And fast.

The BAD:
Indiana is at least worth watching this year. They play well at home and will likely pick up a handful of conference wins this year. The loss of Maurice Creek hurts, and it is tough to see this young Hoosier team winning many on the road. After all, surprising wins over Pitt and Michigan aside, this is a team that lost to Boston U, George Mason and Loyola (Md). No postseason this year, but the future is bright in Bloomington.

Um, not so much in Iowa. The Hawkeyes are terrible. They've lost to Texas-San Antonio, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Duquesne...and they are going to lose to every single team in the Big Ten at least once.

Final Score:
Purdue, Michigan State are Top 4 seeds. Ohio State gets Turner back in time to get in, Wisconsin and Minnesota earn bids.

Michigan and Illinois spend a rocky few weeks on each side of the bubble. I think the Wolverines get it together just in time to slip in as the 6th Big Ten team while Illinois joins Northwestern in NIT.

Penn State, Indiana and Iowa - make early March tee times.

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Boil Up - Purdue Shows Final Four Ability in Win Over WVU

Each year, the core of Hummel, Moore, Kramer and Johnson have advanced a round further in March than they did in the year past. This no-so-subtle evolution has had the folks in West Lafayette dreaming of a Final Four right down the road in Indy this April.

Today's beat down of #6 West Virginia will throw a few more logs on that fire. Forget the rankings and ratings. Forget that West Virginia was undefeated (by the skin of their teeth). What mattered today was how the Boilers would be able to score and defend against an elite team, a team from a power conference loaded with NBA talent. Last year, Purdue was humiliated at home by a Duke team that aptly fit that description (particularly with Gerald Henderson Jr.). It was a harbinger of struggles to come (and their Sweet 16 dismissal by UConn).

This year? The Boilers appeared to be the team with the unrelenting ball pressure and the loads of NBA talent. Is there a better big in the country than JaJuan Johnson? You can have Luke Harangody, I'll take the explosiveness and lean quick leaping ability of Johnson, and his feathery turn-around touch any day of the week. Is there a smarter and more solid big wing than Robbie Hummel? Kyle Singler is fantastic, and obviously swingmen like Evan Turner and Manny Harris and Xavier Henry are in a different athletic category (not really "big wings" in my classification, more "threes"). That said, I'll take Hummel on my squad in March and every game leading up to then.

It is very easy to overrate a team based on one good game; particularly when they play at home. However, Purdue showed me three qualities that differentiate talented teams from great ones. One, an uncanny unselfishness I have only seen one other team play with this year (Syracuse). It is impossible to take away one aspect of the Purdue offense and stifle them completely. They can score inside with Johnson. E'Twan Moore is an excellent creater from the perimeter. Hummel can create, step-back, spot up and even get you junk baskets. There isn't a single point of attack upon which to focus the defensive gameplan.

Secondly, they place enormous pressure on the ballhandler, making it nearly impossible to initiate offense early in the shot clock. The result is tough, forced shots late in the clock and mounting frustration. The obvious answer is to try and run on them, but the discipline of Chris Kramer makes that tactic tough as well. Watch how far away from the hoop West Virginia was getting into their sets. This eliminates back cuts and skip pass opportunities and forces teams to create individual shots. It works in the NBA, but rarely is it an effective offensive tactic in college. Today's game illustrated that perfectly, watching WVU struggle despite NBA-level talent in Ebanks and Butler.

Lastly, they have tremendous veteran leadership and amazing understanding of their roles. Johnson and Moore are great at what they are supposed to bring, namely an inside scoring and defensive presence and ability to create offensively. A finally healthy Hummel scoring, scraping and defending makes this team complete. But, in my estimation, it is Chris Kramer that makes them compete. He rarely looks to score but you'll be hard pressed to find a better on, or off the ball defender from the point guard position in the entire country. Throw in an improved bench (particularly freshman Kelsey Barlow) and you have one of the most complete and solid teams in the country.

The "Baby Boilers" have grown into legit national title contenders in 2010

They still have yet to be severely tested in a road game, and their first 35 minutes at Alabama might be cause for slight pause. But not to worry, they will get plenty of opportunities for road tests real soon (next weekend at Wisconsin in the seldom-won-at Kohl Center; Feb 9th at Mich. St, and late Feb @ Ohio State with Evan Turner possibly back).

But for now, this afternoon in West Lafayette, Purdue answered many of the nagging question surrounding their potential to contend for a national championship with a resounding YES.

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Round One Conference Report Cards

With the tourney's opening round in the books, lets see how the conferences squared up.

Big East: B+
Perhaps a tough grade for a conference that opened 6-1, but considering all seven were favorites, five of them prohibitive ones, the standards to grading get a little stricter. Connecticut was insanely dominant, and Syracuse and Louisville won easily as expected. Pitt was extremely underwhelming in their flirtation with #1-seed infamy letting East Tennessee State hang around until the final two minutes, and Villanova allowed #14 seed American to hang around way longer than comfortable for Jay Wright and the Wildcat fans.

That said, Marquette's win over Utah State was a good one. The only blemish was West Virginia's semi-surprising loss to Dayton. The Big East's true measure will be if their FIVE favorites can all hold serve this weekend and push on to the Sweet Sixteen.

Big Twelve: A+
Oklahoma and Missouri handled their business easily, as expected. Kansas was pushed, but never in real danger of losing to a game North Dakota State squad. Those results were expected. The real beauty of the opening weekend for much maligned conference was in the wins of Texas, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M respectively.

Texas neat a similarly ranked Big-10 Minnesota squad, Oklahoma State tackled the SEC East champs, Tennessee, and Texas A&M handled BYU with ease, making the Big 12 a PERFECT 6-0.

Three of their six remaining teams face uphill battles in the second round; Texas draws Duke, A&M gets UConn and Oklahoma State gets Pitt. If ANY of those three win, consider it a coup for the Big 12.

Menawhile, Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma will all be favored in the contests. If the Big 12 emerges 3-3 in ANY combination this weekend, for a 9-3 opening weekend, this tourney can be considered a success.

SEC: C-
LSU beat Butler in their 8-9 matchup, Tennessee lost in the last few seconds in theirs. The Mississippi Bulldogs surprising post season run was over as quickly as it started, getting blasted by Washington. Barring a stunning LSU upset of North Carolina, the NCAA tournament comes to a close for the SEC tomorrow afternoon.

On the bright side, both Kentucky and Florida are still alive in the NIT...

Pac 10: A
5-1, with only Cal losing (to Maryland) constituted a huge, validating weekend for the Pac-10 Conference. Washington won big over Mississippi St, UCLA held off everyone's upset darling VCU, and Arizona State vanquished the other upset pick de juor, Temple. The real gems were the final two to tip, USC and Arizona who both beat better-seeded foes with relative ease.

From here, things get interesting for the conference. None of them will be favorites this weekend, but none are squaring off against a Goliath either. UCLA gets a beatable Villanova squad (albeit in Phily), Washington plays a pick-em with Purdue, Arizona State gets Syracuse, USC looks to continue their hot streak against Michigan State and Arizona gets the winner of Wake Forest and Cleveland State. None gimmes; none unwinnable either. For now, the Pac-10 is a solid "A" with an optimistic view for the tourney to come.

Big Ten, ACC: Incomplete - waiting on OSU and Wake to gone final, both have HUGE impact on conference's grade.

A-10: B
The Temple game probably wasn't what the conference was hoping for, as they went down to Arizona State without as much struggle as some assumed Christmas and Co. could cause. However, Dayton's solid, comfortable win over the Big East's West Virginia and Xavier's easy cruise tonight left the A-10 a respectable 2-1. For a conference that usually doesn't see a third bid, two wins in the opening round are something to cheer about.

Xavier gets the Florida St/Wisconsin winner, while Dayton will try to cool off another major conference giant, Kansas.

Mountain West: F
For a conference that has been making a lot of fuss about getting lumped in with the big boys, this tourney was not a good statement on their behalf. Some argued that San Diego St, and possibly even New Mexico and UNLV merited some consideration for at large bids. After the stink bombs Utah and BYU put up this week, it is a pretty tough arguement to sustain.

Mid-Majors: B+
See Mountain West, you get respect! We left you out of the mid-major minutae just to give you a stand alone "F." Now that's respect baby.

Old favorite Butler bowed out early in a rare first round exit. Utah State showed they were good enough to be in, but not much better that that; close losses don't count when you clamor for at-large bids. And lastly, Davidson's replacement almost toppled UConn...56 more points and we could have had another 6 OT classic...

If you'd like to include Memphis and Gonzaga, you would have two mid-major wins, lump in the A-10 and you have 4. Those four wins are hardly mid-major programs though (possible exception of Dayton), they just play in non-big 6 leagues. Other than that, the big boys have held serve to this point. (As evidenced by the combined 17-2 record of the Pac 10, Big 12, and BEast).

However, in the interest of fairness more than a few of the little guys did show well. American, North Dakota State and East Tennessee State gave us 35+ minutes of excitement and Morehead State gave U of L a decent half tune-up (plus they probably sold a lot of T-Shirts to college kids from other schools... everyone love morehead...).

But just when things looked bleak, Siena provided drama times two, winning a dramatic doub;e-overtime game over the "home team" Ohio State Buckeyes. And finally, the Cleveland State Vikings came to Cinderella's rescue in the nights final game. They dominated Wake Forest from the opening tip, withstood a few challenges in the second half, but in the end cruised to a double digit win over the Deacs. Proving once again why the NCAA Tourney is the most exciting event in American sports. Cinderella alwways wears a different gown, but never misses the ball.

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Big Ten Action: Penn State looks for huge statement win

Northwestern got on yesterday, now fellow Big Ten traditional doormat looks to do the same.

What is that you ask? Knock off conference big boy Michigan State in East Lansing. Penn State has been one of the season's pleasant surprises. If the season were ending today, I have them as the 7th Big Ten team going to the Dance (ahead of Michigan and Wisconsin). With a win today, the Nittany Lions move into near-lock status.

It won't be easy, and after Northwestern handed the Spartans their lone conference loss (in their own gym no less), you can bet Izzo's team will not be looking past today's game.

Penn State shoots for new heights today at East Lansing.

Have something to say?? Leave a comment or email us at MarchManiacs@yahoo.com!

Is it too early to talk bubble??

At MarchManiacs, we say it is never too early to talk bubble. Furthermore, there are more than a few games that have major bubble implications.

Here is a quick guide to a few of the best:

2pm - Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M - It doesn't get any more "bubble" than this one. Both teams are squarely on it, and it is unlikely both will get tourney bids with Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas looking like locks, and Baylor and Missouri ahead of them. There is no way the Big 12 gets seven bids. The winner here has a valuable chip in their pocket for Selection Sunday.

3pm - South Carolina @ Kentucky - After Jodie Meeks' night at Tennessee the nation seemed willing to crown Kentucky the class of the SEC (I like the Cats, but would give the nod to Florida). South Carolina is an intersting team with some firepower and are 4-2 in SEC play, 15-4 overall. A win today puts the Gamecocks in the tourney mix (and comfortably ahead of Tennessee).

5pm - Baylor at Missouri - Same story as Ok St and A&M, only these two teams are positioned a little better. Baylor has the edge of being more highly regarded entering the season. Missouri has been overlooked all year; perhaps deservedly so after the stinkbomb they put up against Kansas State this week. This game probably means more to Missouri's tourney chances, especially since the game is in Colombia.

8pm - Two great ACC buble games; Virginia Tech travels to Boston College and Miami goes to Maryland. All four teams are still in the at-large mix (Va Tech being in good shape, Maryland teetering, the other two textbook "bubble" teams). The ACC has four clear locks, and VA Tech and FSU look to be #5 & #6. These two games go a long way to seeing which other teams will join the mix. Maryland is all but done with another loss or two, so will be scrappy tonight defending their homecourt.

8pm - Wisconsin @ Northwestern - If the Wildcats are going to end the longest tourney-less streak in the land (it is infinity and counting...) tonight's game HAS to be a win. If you were bracketing today, the Big Ten would get six, maybe seven. These two teams would be 8 & 9 respectively. An absolute must win for Northwestern.

10pm - California @ USC - Both teams enter 5-3 in Pac-10 play and solidly on the bubble. The Pac-10 looks to be one of the more up-for-grabs conferences in the nation, but only UCLA and Arizona State have garnered any national buzz. Washington surged out the conference lead with an upset win over UCLA, but appears to be coming back to the pack. Tonight's Cal/SC winner gets a valuable chip when it comes time to decide which four or five teams get to dance.

Gophers Big - Conference Stack Up Report

No one wins in the Kohl Center except the Badgers. Except for tonight.

Tubby's Gophers snatched a huge OT win from Wisconsin in a true validation game for Minnesota. The road doesn't get any easier, as they get a visit from Purdue (also dramtatic victors tonight) on Saturday, but at 3-1 in conference and 15-1 overall, the Gophers lookd primed to end their tourney drought (and possibly play into week two).

Most fellow hoops aficionados disagree with me, but I still think top to bottom, the Big Ten in on par with any conference in the nation, except perhaps the ACC. Yes, the Big East is better at the top, but their bottom seven (six if you give Cincinnati or Providence a pass) are terrible.

Here is how I see the Big Ten right now from a national perspective (meaning Big Dance):

LOCKS: Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois
SHOULD: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan,
NOT IMPOSSIBLE: Penn State
NIT LIKELY: Iowa, Northwestern
NO WAY: Indiana

Do the same with other conferences, and tell me how it shakes out? Big East? Six locks, three likely with one possibly getting shafted. Two possible NIT'ers. Five no way in hells. Yes, the power is there up top, but they have 16 freaking teams!

The only conference on par is the ACC (My vote for best in America)

LOCKS: Duke, Wake, UNC, Clemson
SHOULD: Miami, Florida State, Maryland,
NIT'ers: NC State, Va Tech, Boston College (ANY of these three has postential to jump up)
NOPE: Georgia Tech, Virginia

Grab the bottom 25% of each league. Who would you rather play? Boston College, Georgia Tech and Virginia... OR, South Florida, DePaul, St. Johns, Rutgers. Easy choice, right? How about Northwestern, Iowa and Indiana? IU sucks, but NW or Iowa would be favored by 4-8 over each of the previous four listed.

It is going to be a great finish to the year, and best of all, we will get to find out -
ON THE COURT!

Escape Artists - Robbie Humel and the Boilers Dodge a Bullet

Purdue needed a furious rally in the final four minutes to overcome an eleven point deficit and beat Northwestern by a pair, 63-61. Northwestern evened the score up with 46 seconds to go on a beatifully designed inbound play for a back door lob when Coble turned Hummel around and slipped to the glass for the allry-oop layup.

Purdue's E'Twan Moore (Maniac'c vote for most overrated player in the nation) clunked a three, leading to a Wildcat 3 on 1 break. They failed to capitalize and Purdue took possession with 8 seconds remaining.

JuJuan Johnsons was fould with 2 seconds to go, converted them both and Purdue escaped a damagin loss.

The win pulls the Boilers to an even 2-2 in Big Ten play.

Up Next:
Northwestern looks to play spoiler Sunday hosting the #17 Golden Gophers. Northwestern is a lot tougher than their 0-4 conference record. With the exception of IU, there really isn';t a gimme win in the Big 10 this year. I still contend it is the nation's most balanced quality conference this year.

Purdue hosts Iowa on Sunday in a should-win game, then travels to Minnesota next Thursday in a great matchup that will say a lot about whether the Gophers are "good" or "conference champ good."

State-Ment Win

How 'bout those Nittany Lions? About a month back the Maniac had Northwestern and Penn State on the radar, but was leaning more towards the Wildcats after their thumping of Florida State. Last week Penn State handled them in their conference opener. The followed up with a respectable 4-point loss AT Madison (where no one seems to win other than the Badgers.)

Tonight's game against purdue would show whether Penn State was for real, or just "Ranked #1 for a while then throttled by a USC freight-train in the Rose Bowl" real...

Their 67-64 win over a Purdue team many consider Final Four possibilities should answer that question with a resounding YES.

Sophomore guard Talor Battle continued his unlikely All-Big Ten campaign with a dazzling 21 point, 9 assist perfomance that will linger for a while. Penn State's backcourt may not be large in stature (Battle is 5'11', backcourtmate Pringle is 6'2'') but they are huge in production. They combine for an average of 35+ points and 8.5 assists a night and currently rank as the Big Ten's most productive backcourt.

Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves and punch the Lions a dance ticket; there is still a lot of work to go. For now though, they have t be solidly ahead of Ohio State (0-3 in conference) and at least on pace with Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan in the conversation.

One last cogent point: do NOT let Penn State's win tonight indicate that the Big Ten isn't as good as people thought. Parity does not equate to a lack of quality. Purdue is a very good ball club. Ask Texas and Davidson and Oklahoma (great OT loss) and Boston College. It's is simply the matter that Penn State is too. Their vast improvement and the 6-10 conference wins they will pick up makes the Big 10 the deepest most balanced league in the country.

Talor Battle and the Lions are legit tourney hopefuls for the first time
since the Joe Crispin era...

UP NEXT:

Purdue hosts Wisconsin, then takes a sneaky-tricky roadie to Northwesten and returns home to face Iowa. The Boilers would be dissapointed with anything less than 3-0 on the swing.

Penn State looks to keep the momentum going on a trip to visit Tubby's also resurgent Gophers before returning home to find Michigan State waiting. Then they mus try to keep focused for an Indiana game that equates to a win you simply MUST get to keep NCAA Tourney fires stoked.