George Mason left little doubt as to their tourney destination and status as the Colonial's elite tonight with an impressive 71-51 win over VCU. George Mason is inching very close to LOCK status in the big dance, and could find themselves with a better seed than the #11 they drew five years ago en route to the Final Four.
For Virginia Commonwealth, the loss was absolutely devestating. Four days ago, VCU was in decent shape for earning an at-large bid. However, with back-to-back losses to Old Dominion and George Mason, they slide into third in conference, and with their considerably more sparse resume than the two conference front runners, it now appears their only entre' into the Dance will be to win the CAA Tourney.
Friday's Bracket Buster Challenge trip to Wichita State could restore a glimmer of hope, but even that is very remote at 20-8 (12-4). For Mason (22-5, 14-2), their Bracket Buster trip to Northern Iowa is more a chance to bolster an already impressive tournament resume with another quality win.
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Showing posts with label CAA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CAA. Show all posts
Colonial Duel - Will Both End Up Standing??
All three team now sit squarely on 20 wins, and all three are worthy of at-large invitations. However, conference perceptions being what they are, MOST sites project only two CAA teams earning a bid. That makes today's road win for Old Dominion the most important and influential win on a packed Saturday slate of games.
Old Dominion moved to 11-4 in conference, and 20-6 overall. The Monarchs own wins over Xavier, Clemson, Richmond, and Dayton, as well as splits with conference mates VCU and George Mason. Two of their other six losses were at Georgetown and Missouri. They have only two bad losses; Delaware and Drexel (and Drexel also beat Louisville at Louisville this season).
I didn't have a chance to watch the ODU/VCU game today - so here's a couple good links for a game recap.
http://www.odusports.com/sports/m-baskbl/recaps/021211aaa.html
http://bleacherreport.com/old-dominion-basketball
enjoy!
Hidden Gem of the Day: Missouri Hosting Old Dominion
To the best of my knowledge, tonight's ODU @ Mizzou game isn't going to be televised, but I am really intrigued to see how this one unfolds. Old Dominion is a good ball club, one I expect to make the tourney, however I think Mizzou is a disastrous matchup for teams without sparkling point guard play and either 1. athleticism to keep up with the breakneck Tigers, or 2) Incredible discipline to slow down and squeeze the life out of the game.
ODU's best shot is #2, however I don't think it's going to be enough. Missouri is the best team in the country no one is talking about, with their only blemish an overtime defeat to Georgetown. If for no reason other than the pace they play they create interesting matchups and contrasting styles. This year's ODU team is very similar to last year's squad that knocked off Notre Dame in Round One, and much more built to slug it out with the more rugged BEast schools than the uber-quick uptempo squads.
ODU's best shot is #2, however I don't think it's going to be enough. Missouri is the best team in the country no one is talking about, with their only blemish an overtime defeat to Georgetown. If for no reason other than the pace they play they create interesting matchups and contrasting styles. This year's ODU team is very similar to last year's squad that knocked off Notre Dame in Round One, and much more built to slug it out with the more rugged BEast schools than the uber-quick uptempo squads.
MANIACS PICK: Missouri -8.5
Wednesday Gems in Mid-Major Land
Last night's Pitt v. UConn game ushered in the onset of conference play with a bang. The game may have been slightly overlooked thanks to the odd Tuesday Night Football game, but college hoops fans had to be delighted with a great matchup to jumpstart phase two of the college sesason. Non-conference play is almost over, but tonight serves up a nice handful a final conference comparison games.
There are a few more nice major conference match-ups tonight (West Virginia v. St Johns, Georgetown v. Notre Dame), but the most interesting games are taking place far from the reach of nationally televised contests. Here's a quick breakdown of some games worth visiting www.channelsurfing.net for (great links to dozens of hard-to-find games)
7:00 PM -- Furman (8-2) @ UCF (11-0)
UCF has been one of the nation's most pleasnat surprises, riding their undefeated start to #19 in the AP polls. Tonight they get a tricky potential trap game as the Paladins (nominee for oddest nickname - ANYONE know what a "Paladin" is? Email it our way) head to UCF Arena in the first game of the UCF Holiday Classic. Furman's two losses, a 4-point loss to Kent State (who is playing good ball and could win the MAC) and a 24 point drubbing to Penn State.
The Nittany Lions still have Talor Battle (I believe he is in his eleventh year of eligibility...) and beat Indiana last night in Bloomington to kick off Big Ten play. The point being, the loss may not be that bad. Furman enters fresh off a double digit win over South Carolina. The Knights better be sharp tonight or they could be susceptible to an upset.
7:00 PM -- George Mason (9-2) @ Dayton (10-3)
I have both of these teams IN in my earliest prediction bracket for the Big Dance, but both have a lot of work to do to get there. Dayton had some struggles early dropping a tough game to East Tennessee St and enduring a humiliating 68-34 loss to state rival Cincinnati. Since then, the Flyers have regrouped, winning three in a row including last night's 69-65 win at Seton Hall. The Flyers are the most athletic team in the Atlantic 10 and have the talent to unseat Temple, Xavier and Richmond as the A-10's top team.
George Mason fields their best team since their legendary Final Four run in 2006. Their two losses both came outside the continental USA in November, NC State and a final-possession loss to SoCon favorite Wofford. Since then the Patriots wins have been solid, if not spectacular. Tonight marks their first true Top 75 team challenge since Cancun. This is their last chance to pick up a much-needed resume win before entering league play in the brutal Colonial. As of now, they'd be a bubble team at best.
This is the best game of the night, in my opinion. Too bad ESPN chose to give us Duke v. UNC Greensboro and Texas-Arlington v. Kansas instead...
7:00 PM -- Wofford (5-6) @ VCU (7-4)
Wofford is easily the best 5-6 team in the country. All kidding aside, the Terriers schedule has been among the most brutal in the country with losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Air Force, Georgetown, Xavier (3 OT) and South Carolina. More important to note, none of those teams travelled to Wofford's gym. They may have little shot at an at-large bid, but without a doubt their schedule prepared them well to run through the SoCon. A win tonight would give them wins over two of the CAA's top teams (G.Mason), and could be the difference between a #14/#15 seed and a more winnable 4/13 game.
VCU on the other hand faces a much more difficult conference slate and has slipped outside of strong at-large contender range. A loss tonight would be a brutal blow to any at-large hopes the Rams might be harboring. Their win over UCLA was decent, but there is little else to write home about. They have the most athletic team in the CAA and could be a dangerous #11/#12 seed come March if they can right the ship, starting with tonight.
9:05 PM -- Hawaii (9-3) @ Utah State (11-2)
WAC play gets off to a blazing start tonight as the two top teams face off in Orem. Hawaii played surprisingly well in the Honolulu Christmas tournament, knocking off Utah and Mississippi State to claim the consolation bracket. The losses to Florida State and BYU were disspointing in margin, but not "bad losses" per se. The loss to Cal Poly would be a crippler if they find themselves in the 22-23 win range and contending for an at-large birth.
Utah State finds themselves in an all-too-familiar position; great record with little in terms of quality wins. Their losses, by 6 to BYU and at Georgetown won't hurt their profile. Beating Hawaii not only gives them a Top 100 win, it also gets them the early leg up in the WAC standings.
9:35 PM -- Air Force (8-3) @ UTEP (10-3)
Air Force is a middle of the pack team in their league, but given the sterling performance of the MWC thus far this season, being a middle-of-the packer is actually a compliment. One could say nearly the identical thing about UTEP. It's unlikely either of these teams make the NCAA Tournament, but both are solid NIT contenders. Tonight's game gives a nice comparison opportunity for the Mountain West and Conference USA.
11:00 PM -- St.Mary's (10-2) vs. Mississippi State (8-5): Game played in Las Vegas.
St Mary's is two years removed from Patty Mills and one year past Omar Samhan. Despite losing two of the best players in school history, St. Mary's is right in the mix to return to the NCAA Tourney for the second straight year and appear to be poised to snap Gonzaga's decade long stanglehold on the WCC's regular season championship. St. Mary's defeated St John's early in the year, and their only two losses are to BYU and San Diego State, both Top 25 teams. They are in need of a Big 6 conference win to add to their otherwise bleak resume or could find themselves in the same situation as 2009; great record offset by a weak schedule resulting in a disappointing trip to the NIT.
God only knows what is going on at Mississippi State. Eligibility suspensions, fist fights on the bench and a fistful of questionable losses including Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee. At 8-5 the Bulldogs have likely played themselves into a deep hole to earn at at-large bid, though in a weak SEC-West they could pick up 10 or 11 wins. A win tonight, a decent conference run and all of a sudden you are looking at a 20 or 21 win team in a Power Six conference, generally a recipe for dancing...
Maniac's Picks:
Furman +13
Dayton -1.5
VCU -6.5
Hawaii +20.5
Air Force +14
There are a few more nice major conference match-ups tonight (West Virginia v. St Johns, Georgetown v. Notre Dame), but the most interesting games are taking place far from the reach of nationally televised contests. Here's a quick breakdown of some games worth visiting www.channelsurfing.net for (great links to dozens of hard-to-find games)
7:00 PM -- Furman (8-2) @ UCF (11-0)
UCF has been one of the nation's most pleasnat surprises, riding their undefeated start to #19 in the AP polls. Tonight they get a tricky potential trap game as the Paladins (nominee for oddest nickname - ANYONE know what a "Paladin" is? Email it our way) head to UCF Arena in the first game of the UCF Holiday Classic. Furman's two losses, a 4-point loss to Kent State (who is playing good ball and could win the MAC) and a 24 point drubbing to Penn State.
The Nittany Lions still have Talor Battle (I believe he is in his eleventh year of eligibility...) and beat Indiana last night in Bloomington to kick off Big Ten play. The point being, the loss may not be that bad. Furman enters fresh off a double digit win over South Carolina. The Knights better be sharp tonight or they could be susceptible to an upset.
7:00 PM -- George Mason (9-2) @ Dayton (10-3)
I have both of these teams IN in my earliest prediction bracket for the Big Dance, but both have a lot of work to do to get there. Dayton had some struggles early dropping a tough game to East Tennessee St and enduring a humiliating 68-34 loss to state rival Cincinnati. Since then, the Flyers have regrouped, winning three in a row including last night's 69-65 win at Seton Hall. The Flyers are the most athletic team in the Atlantic 10 and have the talent to unseat Temple, Xavier and Richmond as the A-10's top team.
George Mason fields their best team since their legendary Final Four run in 2006. Their two losses both came outside the continental USA in November, NC State and a final-possession loss to SoCon favorite Wofford. Since then the Patriots wins have been solid, if not spectacular. Tonight marks their first true Top 75 team challenge since Cancun. This is their last chance to pick up a much-needed resume win before entering league play in the brutal Colonial. As of now, they'd be a bubble team at best.
This is the best game of the night, in my opinion. Too bad ESPN chose to give us Duke v. UNC Greensboro and Texas-Arlington v. Kansas instead...
7:00 PM -- Wofford (5-6) @ VCU (7-4)
Wofford is easily the best 5-6 team in the country. All kidding aside, the Terriers schedule has been among the most brutal in the country with losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Air Force, Georgetown, Xavier (3 OT) and South Carolina. More important to note, none of those teams travelled to Wofford's gym. They may have little shot at an at-large bid, but without a doubt their schedule prepared them well to run through the SoCon. A win tonight would give them wins over two of the CAA's top teams (G.Mason), and could be the difference between a #14/#15 seed and a more winnable 4/13 game.
VCU on the other hand faces a much more difficult conference slate and has slipped outside of strong at-large contender range. A loss tonight would be a brutal blow to any at-large hopes the Rams might be harboring. Their win over UCLA was decent, but there is little else to write home about. They have the most athletic team in the CAA and could be a dangerous #11/#12 seed come March if they can right the ship, starting with tonight.
9:05 PM -- Hawaii (9-3) @ Utah State (11-2)
WAC play gets off to a blazing start tonight as the two top teams face off in Orem. Hawaii played surprisingly well in the Honolulu Christmas tournament, knocking off Utah and Mississippi State to claim the consolation bracket. The losses to Florida State and BYU were disspointing in margin, but not "bad losses" per se. The loss to Cal Poly would be a crippler if they find themselves in the 22-23 win range and contending for an at-large birth.
Utah State finds themselves in an all-too-familiar position; great record with little in terms of quality wins. Their losses, by 6 to BYU and at Georgetown won't hurt their profile. Beating Hawaii not only gives them a Top 100 win, it also gets them the early leg up in the WAC standings.
9:35 PM -- Air Force (8-3) @ UTEP (10-3)
Air Force is a middle of the pack team in their league, but given the sterling performance of the MWC thus far this season, being a middle-of-the packer is actually a compliment. One could say nearly the identical thing about UTEP. It's unlikely either of these teams make the NCAA Tournament, but both are solid NIT contenders. Tonight's game gives a nice comparison opportunity for the Mountain West and Conference USA.
11:00 PM -- St.Mary's (10-2) vs. Mississippi State (8-5): Game played in Las Vegas.
St Mary's is two years removed from Patty Mills and one year past Omar Samhan. Despite losing two of the best players in school history, St. Mary's is right in the mix to return to the NCAA Tourney for the second straight year and appear to be poised to snap Gonzaga's decade long stanglehold on the WCC's regular season championship. St. Mary's defeated St John's early in the year, and their only two losses are to BYU and San Diego State, both Top 25 teams. They are in need of a Big 6 conference win to add to their otherwise bleak resume or could find themselves in the same situation as 2009; great record offset by a weak schedule resulting in a disappointing trip to the NIT.
God only knows what is going on at Mississippi State. Eligibility suspensions, fist fights on the bench and a fistful of questionable losses including Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee. At 8-5 the Bulldogs have likely played themselves into a deep hole to earn at at-large bid, though in a weak SEC-West they could pick up 10 or 11 wins. A win tonight, a decent conference run and all of a sudden you are looking at a 20 or 21 win team in a Power Six conference, generally a recipe for dancing...
Maniac's Picks:
Furman +13
Dayton -1.5
VCU -6.5
Hawaii +20.5
Air Force +14
Xavier to Face Old Dominion in Paradise Jam Final
It hasn't always been pretty, but the Muskies have made it to 4-0, heading into the Paradise Jam final against fellow don't call us "mid" major, Old Dominion.
Both teams have NCAA aspirations that don't hinge simply on winning their league tournaments in March, and picking up the win tomorrow would be a nice chip in each team's pile. The Monarchs advanced after narrowly edging Clemson, 61-60, while Xavier survived an unbalanced offensive night and held off the Seton Hall Pirates 57-52.
Xavier got just 25 points from players NOT named Tu (formerly, Terrell) Holloway. The same group combined for 10 of 28 shooting. Holloway has shown early on this season that he should have been included on the 50-man Naismith Watch List, averaging 27 points, 6 board and more than 5 assists. While Holloway's play has been unquestionably superb, if Xavier can't find someone else to help carry the offensive load this season, it's hard to see them winning games when their schedule begins to escalate, which it will VERY quickly.
The obvious candidates is sophomore Mark Lyons, though he is hampered somewhat by the similaraities in his and Tu's game, as well as some poor shot selection. Junior seven footer Kenny Frease's game has improved each season, but is still far from a reliable consistent post scoring option. Dante Jackson is more of a defensive player and occassional spot up shooter and Jamel McLean is a freakish athlete, but limited on what he can do with the ball. If one of the above doesn't begin making more significant offensive contributions, Chris Mack might have to experiment deeper on the bench to find some offensive balance.
For Old Dominion, the Paradise Jam Final represents another important chance to stack an automatic bid-worthy chip in their favor. Their first opportunity narrowly slipped away as they lost their opener to Georgetown (who won their tournament, beating Vandy and Minnesota).
The game tips tomorrow night around 8:30 tomorrow and can be found on MOST Fox Sports affiliates.
Both teams have NCAA aspirations that don't hinge simply on winning their league tournaments in March, and picking up the win tomorrow would be a nice chip in each team's pile. The Monarchs advanced after narrowly edging Clemson, 61-60, while Xavier survived an unbalanced offensive night and held off the Seton Hall Pirates 57-52.
Xavier got just 25 points from players NOT named Tu (formerly, Terrell) Holloway. The same group combined for 10 of 28 shooting. Holloway has shown early on this season that he should have been included on the 50-man Naismith Watch List, averaging 27 points, 6 board and more than 5 assists. While Holloway's play has been unquestionably superb, if Xavier can't find someone else to help carry the offensive load this season, it's hard to see them winning games when their schedule begins to escalate, which it will VERY quickly.
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| Call me "Tu" but give me three. |
For Old Dominion, the Paradise Jam Final represents another important chance to stack an automatic bid-worthy chip in their favor. Their first opportunity narrowly slipped away as they lost their opener to Georgetown (who won their tournament, beating Vandy and Minnesota).
The game tips tomorrow night around 8:30 tomorrow and can be found on MOST Fox Sports affiliates.
Firday's Bracket Buster Games - Maniac's Picks
OK, couldn't get anything to work underneath that stupid graphic, so the picks are here in a new post.
Tonight's first game might be the best overall basketball game of the event. Most people are going to sell you Butler and Siena, because you remember the names from tourney's past. But the two teams outside of the big leagues aside from Butler and Gonzaga that people haven't seen play that can WIN a game or two in the tourney take stage tonight.
Old Dominion has gone on the road and beaten some big boys already, namely knocking off Georgetown back in December when they were undefeated. The are 13-3 in a good and balanced Colonial league and in my opinion should be a lock for the tourney. That said, they are not a lock for the tourney. Going to Cedar Rapids and beating the ranked Panthers tonight would be huge.
Northern Iowa is on pretty safe footing, having already sewn up the Valley regualr season title and sweeping Wichita State. The loss last week to Bradley probably knocks them off the 4-5 lines and leaves them hoping for a six and expecting a seven or and eight. Tonight's win probably keeps them safely in the 6-7 range, so seeding wise, a big game for UNI.
In the late game, William & Mary looked dead a few weeks ago at 8-5 and in fifth place in the CAA. However, they have run off three in a row to get to 18-7, (11-5) and still own those road wins over Wake and Maryland. Are they alive for an at-large? Barely, and admitedly need some good things to happen around them. Lose tonight and that slim sliver of hope gets solely pinned on the CAA tourney. Who wins that one is anyone's guess, as the league is deep and balanced (George Mason, Northeastern and VCU also lurk in the mix).
Iona has no shot at an at-large, and here-in lies my gripe with the whole "Bracketbuster" notion. What does W&M have to gain tonight? It's nice to play on TV (I'm sure it will pull in huge numbers at 9pm on a Friday night opposite the Olympics and people who have a LIFE on Friday night - Maniac, um, not included....). Other than that, they have way more to lose than gain. Sadly, that is the case for a lot of teams in this field (like Siena, Murray State and a few others who gain nothing from the win but are hurt badly by a loss).
On to tonight's picks. I'm sticking with my favorite conference. Not just because I am becoming a CAA honk, but because I believe they really do play very good basketball night in and night out. It is unfortunate that the two teams in that league who need the BB win the most go on the road, but I'm not letting that deter me.
Tonight's first game might be the best overall basketball game of the event. Most people are going to sell you Butler and Siena, because you remember the names from tourney's past. But the two teams outside of the big leagues aside from Butler and Gonzaga that people haven't seen play that can WIN a game or two in the tourney take stage tonight.
Old Dominion has gone on the road and beaten some big boys already, namely knocking off Georgetown back in December when they were undefeated. The are 13-3 in a good and balanced Colonial league and in my opinion should be a lock for the tourney. That said, they are not a lock for the tourney. Going to Cedar Rapids and beating the ranked Panthers tonight would be huge.
Northern Iowa is on pretty safe footing, having already sewn up the Valley regualr season title and sweeping Wichita State. The loss last week to Bradley probably knocks them off the 4-5 lines and leaves them hoping for a six and expecting a seven or and eight. Tonight's win probably keeps them safely in the 6-7 range, so seeding wise, a big game for UNI.
In the late game, William & Mary looked dead a few weeks ago at 8-5 and in fifth place in the CAA. However, they have run off three in a row to get to 18-7, (11-5) and still own those road wins over Wake and Maryland. Are they alive for an at-large? Barely, and admitedly need some good things to happen around them. Lose tonight and that slim sliver of hope gets solely pinned on the CAA tourney. Who wins that one is anyone's guess, as the league is deep and balanced (George Mason, Northeastern and VCU also lurk in the mix).
Iona has no shot at an at-large, and here-in lies my gripe with the whole "Bracketbuster" notion. What does W&M have to gain tonight? It's nice to play on TV (I'm sure it will pull in huge numbers at 9pm on a Friday night opposite the Olympics and people who have a LIFE on Friday night - Maniac, um, not included....). Other than that, they have way more to lose than gain. Sadly, that is the case for a lot of teams in this field (like Siena, Murray State and a few others who gain nothing from the win but are hurt badly by a loss).
On to tonight's picks. I'm sticking with my favorite conference. Not just because I am becoming a CAA honk, but because I believe they really do play very good basketball night in and night out. It is unfortunate that the two teams in that league who need the BB win the most go on the road, but I'm not letting that deter me.
Maniac's Picks:
Old Dominion +3
William & Mary +4Want More? Have something to Say?
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Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com
Colonial's Quest for Multiple Bids
There are some real gems this week outside of the traditional "rivalries" or Rivalry Week. (ya' know, even more classic matchups that that ol' Villanova v. West Virginia grudge match...).
All year long we have projected multiple bids for the delightfully entertaining and underrated Colonial League. Tonight's ESPN-U tilt between VCU and George Mason will have some impact on that possibility. Mason has been great in conference play (until their recent 2-game slide), and has some name recognition hangover from their epic 2006 tourney run. VCU is in fourth place in the league, and this is a problem. Aside from VCU (and William & Mary, whose in-league play eliminate them from the discussion) only Old Dominion has the non-conference resume to merit at-large consideration. But with Northeastern, Drexel and Mason lurking towards the top of the standings, it gets tougher to make the case for the VCU Rams.
Tonight's game is an absolute must-win for VCU's at-large chances. In some quiet, near-silent corner I imagine CAA brass are rooting for the Rams as well tonight. it's the league's best chance for two at-large contenders.
Want to know who is definitely NOT rooting for the Rams? Clemson, Northwestern, Minnesota, Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, South Florida, et. all. This game has far reaching bubble implications.
If you want a high-level, well-played game to tune into tonight before Purdue v. Michigan State, flip over to ESPN-U and enjoy.
Maniac's Pick: George Mason + 4
All year long we have projected multiple bids for the delightfully entertaining and underrated Colonial League. Tonight's ESPN-U tilt between VCU and George Mason will have some impact on that possibility. Mason has been great in conference play (until their recent 2-game slide), and has some name recognition hangover from their epic 2006 tourney run. VCU is in fourth place in the league, and this is a problem. Aside from VCU (and William & Mary, whose in-league play eliminate them from the discussion) only Old Dominion has the non-conference resume to merit at-large consideration. But with Northeastern, Drexel and Mason lurking towards the top of the standings, it gets tougher to make the case for the VCU Rams.
Tonight's game is an absolute must-win for VCU's at-large chances. In some quiet, near-silent corner I imagine CAA brass are rooting for the Rams as well tonight. it's the league's best chance for two at-large contenders.
Want to know who is definitely NOT rooting for the Rams? Clemson, Northwestern, Minnesota, Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, South Florida, et. all. This game has far reaching bubble implications.
If you want a high-level, well-played game to tune into tonight before Purdue v. Michigan State, flip over to ESPN-U and enjoy.
Maniac's Pick: George Mason + 4
Three Against the Wall
We are starting to get to the time of the season where we truly have enormous games, games where the losers back themselves into a corner where they pretty much have to win their conference tourney in order to make the Dance. Three games on tonight's slate jump out to me.
In the Colonial, two teams that looked like at-large candidates two months ago find themselves at a crossroad. William & Mary, admittedly the Maniac's darling team this season, knocked off Wake and Maryland on the road (something, coincidentally NO ACC team has done this season) and looked to be well poised to capture an at-large bid if necessary. Old Dominion, along with VCU, captured enough momentum and quality wins pre-conference that it looked likely that at least one of them would make the field as well, possibly even making the CAA a three-bid league for the first time since the historic 2006 season.
Then conference play began, and things got a little messy. ODU has fared well, sitting at 9-2 in league. However, they still trail George Mason and Northeastern (both of whom did not fare well pre-conference). William & Mary is in even a tougher spot, as they sit 7-4, tied for fifth place in the league with VCU (and behind Drexel). The loser of tonight's contest, especially if it is W&M, will be forced to win the league tourney to get in. The game is tonight at 7pm at Old Dominion.
Another mid-major do-or-die game features a team long so successful it feels odd to classify them as a mid-major. Memphis is on the outside looking in as of today and is going to need to stack up some quality wins in a hurry to make the field. They get their first chance tonight at 8pm when conference leading UAB visits the Pyramid. Gonzaga follows them into town on Saturday. After Memphis's surprising 70-60 loss to SMU, it is fair to say they need to win both to have a good chance to capture an at-large bid. Conference USA gets real interesting if Memphis wins tonight, as UTEP and Tulsa have both only dropped one conference game as well. There is no way C-USA gets four bids. I think three might be a stretch too. Tonight is a must for Memphis.
A final mid-major delight features the two best teams in the always competitive Missouri Valley. Wichita State was able to do something only one other team this season has last month; knock off Northern Iowa. Tonight the Panthers get their chance to even the score when the Shockers come to the McLeod Center (8:05 EST). For Northern Iowa, even a loss tonight, provided they suffer no other setbacks, will not prevent them from getting in the tourney. A loss for Wichita State might. They suffered only only one non-conference loss (to Pitt), but they have next to no quality wins to speak of either. Their best win is Texas Tech. After that it's just Iowa, Cleveland State...and it gets worse from there. I am not sure the Valley is strong enough to earn an at-large bid for a team with four conference losses, which is what the Shockers will be if they drop tonight's game. It is a must win for Wichita State.
Three games to watch, though they might be hard to watch (unless you have Dish or Direct TV). Enjoy 'em if you can.
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In the Colonial, two teams that looked like at-large candidates two months ago find themselves at a crossroad. William & Mary, admittedly the Maniac's darling team this season, knocked off Wake and Maryland on the road (something, coincidentally NO ACC team has done this season) and looked to be well poised to capture an at-large bid if necessary. Old Dominion, along with VCU, captured enough momentum and quality wins pre-conference that it looked likely that at least one of them would make the field as well, possibly even making the CAA a three-bid league for the first time since the historic 2006 season.
Then conference play began, and things got a little messy. ODU has fared well, sitting at 9-2 in league. However, they still trail George Mason and Northeastern (both of whom did not fare well pre-conference). William & Mary is in even a tougher spot, as they sit 7-4, tied for fifth place in the league with VCU (and behind Drexel). The loser of tonight's contest, especially if it is W&M, will be forced to win the league tourney to get in. The game is tonight at 7pm at Old Dominion.
Another mid-major do-or-die game features a team long so successful it feels odd to classify them as a mid-major. Memphis is on the outside looking in as of today and is going to need to stack up some quality wins in a hurry to make the field. They get their first chance tonight at 8pm when conference leading UAB visits the Pyramid. Gonzaga follows them into town on Saturday. After Memphis's surprising 70-60 loss to SMU, it is fair to say they need to win both to have a good chance to capture an at-large bid. Conference USA gets real interesting if Memphis wins tonight, as UTEP and Tulsa have both only dropped one conference game as well. There is no way C-USA gets four bids. I think three might be a stretch too. Tonight is a must for Memphis.
A final mid-major delight features the two best teams in the always competitive Missouri Valley. Wichita State was able to do something only one other team this season has last month; knock off Northern Iowa. Tonight the Panthers get their chance to even the score when the Shockers come to the McLeod Center (8:05 EST). For Northern Iowa, even a loss tonight, provided they suffer no other setbacks, will not prevent them from getting in the tourney. A loss for Wichita State might. They suffered only only one non-conference loss (to Pitt), but they have next to no quality wins to speak of either. Their best win is Texas Tech. After that it's just Iowa, Cleveland State...and it gets worse from there. I am not sure the Valley is strong enough to earn an at-large bid for a team with four conference losses, which is what the Shockers will be if they drop tonight's game. It is a must win for Wichita State.
Three games to watch, though they might be hard to watch (unless you have Dish or Direct TV). Enjoy 'em if you can.
Maniac's Picks:
William & Mary +12
UAB +7.5
Wichita State +6
(I like all three with the points, but think only Memphis gets the must-win they need).
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The Curse of the Maniac Part I (of many)
We finally got someone this year. The dreaded hex, unavoidable once MM.com starts to glam onto a mid-major darling, they are nearly guaranteed to get knocked down a peg.
Tonight's victim, our beloved Tribe of William & Mary took their first bad loss of the year, getting beat 62-61 by North Carolina Wilmington. The Tribe gave up a tip-in with 3.4 seconds to play to fall to 10-3 (2-1).
The Seahawks were fresh off a 34-point pasting by other MM.com fave, VCU.
Speaking of VCU, they fell to 1-2 in conference tonight, losing to Northeastern.
The CAA is a good league, but they are in danger of falling prey to classic Missouri Valley-eqsue cannibalism, where so many good teams mixed in with lesser teams who know each other well and always play tough at home. This of course leads to the worst thing for a mid-major seeking multiple bids to the Big Dance; parity.
UP NEXT:
Wednesday: W&M @ Deleware; VCU @ Drexel; Georgia St @ UNC-W
Tonight's victim, our beloved Tribe of William & Mary took their first bad loss of the year, getting beat 62-61 by North Carolina Wilmington. The Tribe gave up a tip-in with 3.4 seconds to play to fall to 10-3 (2-1).
The Seahawks were fresh off a 34-point pasting by other MM.com fave, VCU.
Speaking of VCU, they fell to 1-2 in conference tonight, losing to Northeastern.
The CAA is a good league, but they are in danger of falling prey to classic Missouri Valley-eqsue cannibalism, where so many good teams mixed in with lesser teams who know each other well and always play tough at home. This of course leads to the worst thing for a mid-major seeking multiple bids to the Big Dance; parity.
UP NEXT:
Wednesday: W&M @ Deleware; VCU @ Drexel; Georgia St @ UNC-W
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The Will to Win
Great game today in the CAA. The Tribe of William & Mary reeled off their tenth straight win today in thrilling fashion. They took their first lead of the ballgame 48-47 on a three point play with 13 seconds left. Hofstra came down and got off a contested three point attempt with three seconds remaining that missed. The Pride grabbed the offensive rebound and appeared to have drawn contact on the put back attempt, but the referees ruled it came after the final buzzer sounded.
The refs pronounced the game over and retreated to the locker room, all the while pursuited by Hofstra coach Tom Pecora. Alas, the game was over and the Tribe move to 2-0 in the CAA, while Hofstra falls to 1-1.
It might not be as glamorous as their win three nights ago at Maryland, but it is a big road conference win for a team not accustomed to the spotlight. The probably won't be ranked on Monday, but should get enough votes to be within shouting distance.
Elsewhere in the conference, George Mason showed a pulse, thrashing red-hot Old Dominion 71-55. This is one of five potential multi-bid conferences outside the BCS worth watching this season.
The refs pronounced the game over and retreated to the locker room, all the while pursuited by Hofstra coach Tom Pecora. Alas, the game was over and the Tribe move to 2-0 in the CAA, while Hofstra falls to 1-1.
It might not be as glamorous as their win three nights ago at Maryland, but it is a big road conference win for a team not accustomed to the spotlight. The probably won't be ranked on Monday, but should get enough votes to be within shouting distance.
Elsewhere in the conference, George Mason showed a pulse, thrashing red-hot Old Dominion 71-55. This is one of five potential multi-bid conferences outside the BCS worth watching this season.
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Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
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Death of the Mid-Major
It is sad to write, but I think a proper eulogy needs to at least be prepared in advance. This March, it might be time to bury our good friend, the Mid-Major.
Cinderella will still have plenty of feet begging for slippers, as the nation's 31 conferences collect their automatic bids. However, they will likely have no company from any fellow conference mates, barring five large upsets in very specific conference tournaments. (the A-10, Horizon, Southern, C-USA and WCC).
For the past decade, momentum has been gathering for the rise of mid-majors, both in births in the tourney and in results. Many theories were bandied about; some seemed legitmatly reasonable. Some experts cited the decrease in scholarship allowances. This prevented teams from stockpiling dozens of blue-chippers on the bench while everyone else had to feed on the leftovers. In theory, this created a larger balanced landscape.
But apparently not this year.
Another theory was the influx of early entrants to the NBA draft. Smaller programs with good, but not one-and-done good players would develop junior and senior laden squads that could go deep in the tourney and wreck havoc.
You know, senior laden teams, like Syracuse 2003, Florida 2006, Ohio State 2007...
Next theory.
The most popular theory was the proliferation of television coverage granting exposure to "non-major" programs. With the multitude of games being broadcast, you no longer had to play at a "Top 20" program to be blasted across the nation's airwaves. This is, again, true in theory, but perhaps herein lies the true reason why thing have instead become so unbalanced in 2009.
This weekend there were roughly 20 games broadcast nationally. Depending upon where you live, you might have had a different selection of games from your FOX Sports carrier, but likely it was Pac-10 or ACC. On ESPN everything is BIG. Like BIG Monday, SUPER Tuesday, etc. "Big" as in Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, Big budget and Big BCS conferences.
There are a ton more games on TV overall, I agree. As a matter of fact, I am surprised when I cannot get a Big 6 conference game of any remote importance on regular cable. Nearly every game that means anything is on. If you wanted to catch Davidson v. Charleston last month? Might I suggest ESPN360. You don't get that? (you are in 90% majority) Bummer.
Outside the Big 6 conferences?? Well, unless your name is Gonzaga or Memphis (or the team offered up to them) your One Shining Moment in the sun will have to wait.
Not that I blame networks one bit. The dial is going to spike for UConn/LVille tonight. I don't think many of you would be DVRing George Mason versus Northeastern. (Maybe you would, you read my drivel, so are obviously a hoops nerd like me - so "you" specifically...bad example. You get the point though...)
It is the same reason the Yankees are on 29 times a year, and the Brewers are invisible. It's just the way it is. That doesn't make anyone wrong. It is just a simple fact.
Another fact is that this year's tourney will likely be devoid of Mid-Majors more than any in recent memory. Long gone is the memory of 2006, when the MVC sent four and the Colonial sent two (as did the A-10, C-USA and Mountain West). It is unlikely this year that any of those conferences other than the A-10 and Mountain West will see multiple bids in 2009. Instead the Big East is tracking for 9, The ACC 7, Big Ten and Big 12 looking like a minimum of 6 each...
The biggest sufferers from the lack of attention are the leagues that are really good, and suffer from, gasp, parity. The same "parity" that was used to hail the rise of the mid-major is the same thing that will cost them 4-5 bids in March.
For example, you will not find a more competitve quality league in the country than the Mountain West. UNLV, BYU, Utah, New Mexico, TCU, San Diego State and Wyoming. None of those seven would embarass themselves in the Big Dance. However, for that same reason you have six team between two and three losses at the top of the league. None of them will get the gaudy 24 or 25 wins you need to perk up voters eyes. UNLV, BYU and Utah have te best shot to dance, as they played slightly stronger schedules and have bigger names. Still, despite wins over Lousiville, Gonzaga and a close loss to Wake Forest, one of those three, along with their remaining conference mates will likely have to aspire to NIT glory.
Ditto for the Missouri Valley. These teams are slugging it out, playing close games and beating each other up every night. Just like in the Big East. Unfortunatly for them, the leader of this slugfest struggled in the pre-conference schedule (N. Iowa). Therefore, the conference is "down." Drake, Creighton, Evansville, Bradley and Northern Iowa will be slugging it out is the conference tourney; likely the winner takes all. The loser? Yup. kNITting it is...
Expect one bid for the MVC.
Perhaps the most interesting of all is the Colonial Conference. Northeastern sits atop the pile, with George Mason and VCU clipping at their heels, one and two losses back respectivly. All three have RPI's between 50-60. Good, but not great. Then again, tough to boost a sagging RPI when no BCS school in their right mind is going to schedule a home and home with you. George Mason missed their chance for a resume win, falling by four at Dayton. VCU got , but missed chances against Rhode Island and Oklahoma. Conference leader Northeastern severly damaged the other two's hopes by getting beaten savagly by Memphis and Michigan and scoring just 37 points in a loss to Big East doormat South Florida.
Not a real compelling case for multiple bids, and a real tough decision for the committee. For the record, George Mason was an at-large qualifier in 2006 after losing the conference championship game to UNC Wilmington.
My take? Only one will dance. Same for an improved, but still clearly inferior C-USA as well.
Again, it is not "good" or "bad" ostensbily. It just makes fo a little less shine and luster on the grandest event in Amrican sports (yes, I know the Super Bowl was yesterday,) the NCAA tournament.
Who is this year's George Mason? Maybe no one...
The best thing about the tourney is that once you are in, anyone can be the Cinderalla.
Once you're in.
Cinderella will still have plenty of feet begging for slippers, as the nation's 31 conferences collect their automatic bids. However, they will likely have no company from any fellow conference mates, barring five large upsets in very specific conference tournaments. (the A-10, Horizon, Southern, C-USA and WCC).
For the past decade, momentum has been gathering for the rise of mid-majors, both in births in the tourney and in results. Many theories were bandied about; some seemed legitmatly reasonable. Some experts cited the decrease in scholarship allowances. This prevented teams from stockpiling dozens of blue-chippers on the bench while everyone else had to feed on the leftovers. In theory, this created a larger balanced landscape.
But apparently not this year.
Another theory was the influx of early entrants to the NBA draft. Smaller programs with good, but not one-and-done good players would develop junior and senior laden squads that could go deep in the tourney and wreck havoc.
You know, senior laden teams, like Syracuse 2003, Florida 2006, Ohio State 2007...
Next theory.
The most popular theory was the proliferation of television coverage granting exposure to "non-major" programs. With the multitude of games being broadcast, you no longer had to play at a "Top 20" program to be blasted across the nation's airwaves. This is, again, true in theory, but perhaps herein lies the true reason why thing have instead become so unbalanced in 2009.
This weekend there were roughly 20 games broadcast nationally. Depending upon where you live, you might have had a different selection of games from your FOX Sports carrier, but likely it was Pac-10 or ACC. On ESPN everything is BIG. Like BIG Monday, SUPER Tuesday, etc. "Big" as in Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, Big budget and Big BCS conferences.
There are a ton more games on TV overall, I agree. As a matter of fact, I am surprised when I cannot get a Big 6 conference game of any remote importance on regular cable. Nearly every game that means anything is on. If you wanted to catch Davidson v. Charleston last month? Might I suggest ESPN360. You don't get that? (you are in 90% majority) Bummer.
Outside the Big 6 conferences?? Well, unless your name is Gonzaga or Memphis (or the team offered up to them) your One Shining Moment in the sun will have to wait.
Not that I blame networks one bit. The dial is going to spike for UConn/LVille tonight. I don't think many of you would be DVRing George Mason versus Northeastern. (Maybe you would, you read my drivel, so are obviously a hoops nerd like me - so "you" specifically...bad example. You get the point though...)
It is the same reason the Yankees are on 29 times a year, and the Brewers are invisible. It's just the way it is. That doesn't make anyone wrong. It is just a simple fact.
Another fact is that this year's tourney will likely be devoid of Mid-Majors more than any in recent memory. Long gone is the memory of 2006, when the MVC sent four and the Colonial sent two (as did the A-10, C-USA and Mountain West). It is unlikely this year that any of those conferences other than the A-10 and Mountain West will see multiple bids in 2009. Instead the Big East is tracking for 9, The ACC 7, Big Ten and Big 12 looking like a minimum of 6 each...
The biggest sufferers from the lack of attention are the leagues that are really good, and suffer from, gasp, parity. The same "parity" that was used to hail the rise of the mid-major is the same thing that will cost them 4-5 bids in March.
For example, you will not find a more competitve quality league in the country than the Mountain West. UNLV, BYU, Utah, New Mexico, TCU, San Diego State and Wyoming. None of those seven would embarass themselves in the Big Dance. However, for that same reason you have six team between two and three losses at the top of the league. None of them will get the gaudy 24 or 25 wins you need to perk up voters eyes. UNLV, BYU and Utah have te best shot to dance, as they played slightly stronger schedules and have bigger names. Still, despite wins over Lousiville, Gonzaga and a close loss to Wake Forest, one of those three, along with their remaining conference mates will likely have to aspire to NIT glory.Ditto for the Missouri Valley. These teams are slugging it out, playing close games and beating each other up every night. Just like in the Big East. Unfortunatly for them, the leader of this slugfest struggled in the pre-conference schedule (N. Iowa). Therefore, the conference is "down." Drake, Creighton, Evansville, Bradley and Northern Iowa will be slugging it out is the conference tourney; likely the winner takes all. The loser? Yup. kNITting it is...
Expect one bid for the MVC.
Perhaps the most interesting of all is the Colonial Conference. Northeastern sits atop the pile, with George Mason and VCU clipping at their heels, one and two losses back respectivly. All three have RPI's between 50-60. Good, but not great. Then again, tough to boost a sagging RPI when no BCS school in their right mind is going to schedule a home and home with you. George Mason missed their chance for a resume win, falling by four at Dayton. VCU got , but missed chances against Rhode Island and Oklahoma. Conference leader Northeastern severly damaged the other two's hopes by getting beaten savagly by Memphis and Michigan and scoring just 37 points in a loss to Big East doormat South Florida.
Not a real compelling case for multiple bids, and a real tough decision for the committee. For the record, George Mason was an at-large qualifier in 2006 after losing the conference championship game to UNC Wilmington.
My take? Only one will dance. Same for an improved, but still clearly inferior C-USA as well.
Again, it is not "good" or "bad" ostensbily. It just makes fo a little less shine and luster on the grandest event in Amrican sports (yes, I know the Super Bowl was yesterday,) the NCAA tournament.
Who is this year's George Mason? Maybe no one...The best thing about the tourney is that once you are in, anyone can be the Cinderalla.
Once you're in.
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Best Game You Won't See...
9 PM - VCU and Northeastern battle for the conference lead in the Colonial. Quietly, the CAA has become a very solid conference with three teams that might be lingering around the bubble. George Mason boasts the league's top RPI at #52, while VCU and N'eastern are #55 and #60 respectivly. The conference is most famous for the run the George Mason took to the 2006 Final Four (losing to eventual champion Florida), but has had other headline moments in March.
The VCU Rams are no stranger to March Madness. Ask Duke.
Northeastern in all reality needs to win the conference to have any shot to dance, however even a loss tonight doesn't eliminate VCU from at large consideration. Granted their losses to Rhode Island and Delaware won't do them any favors, and New Mexico looms as their "marquee" win, yet they still have a big name player (Eric Maynor) and some goodwill from their upset of Duke in the 2007 #6-#11 Opening round matchup. Those things aren't supposed to matter to the committee, but they never hurt.
The winner of tonight's contest moves to 8-1 in conference, one game ahead of the loser and two ahead of George Mason.
MANIAC'S PICK: VCU by 8.
The VCU Rams are no stranger to March Madness. Ask Duke.Northeastern in all reality needs to win the conference to have any shot to dance, however even a loss tonight doesn't eliminate VCU from at large consideration. Granted their losses to Rhode Island and Delaware won't do them any favors, and New Mexico looms as their "marquee" win, yet they still have a big name player (Eric Maynor) and some goodwill from their upset of Duke in the 2007 #6-#11 Opening round matchup. Those things aren't supposed to matter to the committee, but they never hurt.
The winner of tonight's contest moves to 8-1 in conference, one game ahead of the loser and two ahead of George Mason.
MANIAC'S PICK: VCU by 8.
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