Four Things We Learned About Duke in Maui

You might have heard once or four hundred times during the ESPN broadcast that Duke has never lost in Maui.  It is certainly an interesting (and impressive) fact, but here are four real things we learned about the Dukies over the past week.




1.  Ryan Kelly reads March Maniacs. 

Shortly after posting our first Bracketeering column of the year and citing Kelly as the main reason I elevated the Blue Devils to #3, Kelly goes out and wins the MVP of the Maui Classic.  So, thanks Ryan.  We appreciate the good lookin' out for the Maniac's analystic prowess.

2.  Duke Recruits Winners.  Lots of 'em

Austin Rivers sat the final two minutes, in a tight ballgame, and unlikely hero Tyler Thornton came up clutch.  

 This tells us, no, not that Duke is better with Rivers on the bench, but that this Duke team is a cohesive enough unit that they can get immense, headline-grabbing contributions from seven players on their roster.  This is a key ingredient of most championship teams.  Even the seeming "one-man shows" of Kemba Walker and Carmelo Anthony got huge contributions from Jeremy Lamb and Gerry McNamara.  You've gotta share the load over the course of a season.  Duke has passed that test far earlier and far easier than most talent-laden squads.


3.  Forget 1,000, Coach K is going to win 1,100 games; at least.

One more championship?  Okay ... I'm in

Did you see the youthful ebulience that bubbled over throughout K's post game interview?  It was simply joyous.  He looked almost teary eyed he was so overjoyed and excited.  The coolest thing about it?  He wasn't excited about the win; he was excited for Tyler Thorton getting a moment in the spotlight, one he said he deserved because he was just such an amazing kid.

Does this sound like a coach anywhere close to retiring?!?  In fact, I'll say confidently there is not a coach in the nation more comfortably and enjoyably pulling as much from his players and the joyful experience of college basketball as Mike Krzyzewski.

4.  Austin Rivers is going to be a great teammate and a big-time winner at Duke.

Peace and Love with the Dukies in Maui

The most impressive thing from this entire weekend was watching the way an engaged and excited Austin Rivers cheered on his Duke teammates and celebrated wildly when they won the championship, despite spending the last two minutes on the bench.  Suffice it to say this was the first time in young Austin Rivers' life when he was riding the pine in crunch time.  Most 18-year old phenoms would sulk.  Or at least look visibly uncomfortable.  Not Rivers.  He took it in stride, with class, and with complete team-first joy in the victory.

This is an enormous step in the evolution of a young superstar, and an enormous building block in the foundation of a potential Final Four squad.  Hi shot selection may at times still leave a little to be desired, but from here on in we will not be questioning his team focus.

Quick Picks - Wednesday Dec 22nd

After nearly two weeks devoid of quality college hoops, today finally offers a bevy of quality games to get one last look at a lot of teams before the enter conference play.  If you are a night-owl, you are doubly in luck, with quality games airing at 11pm and 1AM EST tonight.

Harvard @ UConn -13:  The Huskies are a surprise at #4 in the country and undefeated.  It is possible they sleepwalk through this game, it has certainly been the Huskies mantra over past seasons to play to the level of their competition.  However, I think the men will be focused on not wanting to cede all the holiday attention to their record-breaking lady counterparts.  Plus, Jeremy Lin is gone and this Harvard team just isn't very good.  Gimme the Huskies big.

UCF -3.5 @ UMass:  If anyone is ripe for a let-down game it is the Knights.  After winning two of the biggest games in school history, defeating instate rivals Florida and Miami en route to their first ever appearance in the national rankings (#24 AP) the Knights look to keep their perfection alive visiting a reeling UMass squad.  UMass started the year 7-0 before dropping their last three contests to Boston College, Maine and a 25-point blowout to struggling Seton Hall. 

This line reflects a lot of the residual name recognition from the Marcus Camby-era Minutemen as well as the relative anonymity of the Knights basketball.  I can understand the potential for a letdown, but objectivly the Knights are 10-12 points better on a neutral floor.  I think they bring their A-game, win easily tonight, and enter C-USA play as one of the nation's only undefeated teams.

Texas @ Michigan State -6.5:  Texas is one of my sleeper teams to watch in March.  They are long and athletic and have dynamite freshman talent in Corey Joseph.  Michigan State just seems to be a little off in the early part of the season.  Knowing Tom Izzo, all those ills will be long forgotten by March, but here in December six and a half feels like way to many to lay in a game they could very well lose straight up.  Gimme the Longhorns and the points.

Dayton @ Seton Hall -7.5:  Is this line a typo??  I looked at four different sites to make sure I wasn't reading it wrong.  It's one of those games that made me wish I wagered for real instead of simply prognosticating for pride and column width...  Gimme the Flyers straight up, but the 7.5 makes it even cushier.  This is my first lock of the year.

Drexel @ Syracuse -13.5:  Don't sleep on the Dragons.  They've already knocked off Louisville in their beatiful and cavernous new YUM Center.  They won't be intimidated by the Carrier Dome.  Drexel is a legit tourney team and will compete with VCU, Old Dominion and George Mason in the better-than-advertised Colonial League.  I think the 'Cuse win at home, but I'll take the 13.5 going Drexel's way.

For the final selections, we'll tackle the wonderful trio of games tipping off at 11PM EST.  For those of us who start their Christmas Break tomorrow, it's a good night to wrap some presents and watch some Christmas Hoops!

Butler -8 @ Utah,  Kansas -10 @ Cal, Xavier +5 @ Gonzaga


Maniac's Record to Date: 12-8-1

Kansas Dodges Bullet in Selby's Debut

The nation's longest home winning streak lived on, but barely.  Kansas has gone more than three seasons, 67 games, without dropping a contest at the Phogg, but for the second time this season found themselves needing some late theatrics to overcome a Pac-10 foe.

This time it was the celebrated and much publicized freshman, Josh Selby, playing in his first ever collegiate game who bailed them out.  Trailing by two with twenty seconds to go, Selby knocked down a long three point shot from the right elbow extended.  USC failed to even get a quality look at the basket on successive attempts before a half court heave at the buzzer came tantalizingly close to a miracle.

For Kansas, they'll take the win, but some questions linger after being pushed to the brink by a team with next to no hope of playing in the NCAA Tournament  (editor note: yes I got your emails.  I know, they are serving a self-imposed post season ban this season). 

Several weeks ago it was UCLA threatening to derail the Jayhawks incredible streak.  There could be some small causes for concern, but for tonight, the Jayhawks are still undefeated and just scratching the surface of how good they can become with Selby in the fold.

Bracketeering - Dec 5th, 2010, The Late Thanksgiving Edition

Welcome fellow maniacs to the season's belated Thanksgiving edition of Bracketeering.  We've recently grown a little bit in readers, so for those of you newly aquainted to the rankings, we do things a little differently here at MarchManiacs.com.  The rankings are an amalgamation of both objective and subjective qualities; wins matter, but WHO you have won and lost to and the MANNER in which the games unfolded matter most. 

That said, 10-0 without a high quality win doesn't automatically get ya' in.  More than likely, it keeps you out.  But that brings me to the final component of the Bracketeering rankings; what do you look like as a team and what is the potential for improvement.  There's a reason we tend to be a little ahead when lifting a team up in the rankings (example, two years ago we had Louisville #3 when they were #14 in the AP Poll.  By March, they were the #1 overall seed in the tournament. 

There are a bunch of other examples as well, Syracuse last year as well as Ohio State)  The reason it tends to work that way?  We watch a lot of games.  You will rarely find an opinion on a team we haven't watched play multiple times.

Where does the Maniac find the time?  Easy.  Mom and Dad have great satellite TV in their basement, which I live in....

On to Bracketeering!!

FINAL FOUR:

1. Duke - Slotting Duke at the top isn't really a daring move, but having them anywhere else would be a foolish one.  The defending champs are not only poised to repeat, they are actually considerably better than last year.  John Scheyer was fantastic last season but even as terrific as he was, it is impossible not deny Kyrie Irving is a significant upgrade at the point.  Ditto for Mason Plumlee.  Zoubek was a rebounding beast in March, but Plumlee gives the Devils a true post scoring presence and runs the break like an NBA lottery pick.  Even if he gets in foul trouble, they don't lose much bringing his brother in off the bench.  Watch how many times they lob it into the Plummle boy's in a given game.  Their abilities inside are clearly a focal point of Duke's offensive attack; something they have lacked for several seasons.


The starting five has upgraded, Nolan Smith returned, and Duke has even improved their depth.  Duke can legitimately play nine guys, which anyone who has watched Coach K over the years knows is more than enough to cut down the nets.  Coach K's previous four champs all relied primarily on seven players total.

Oh, and for good measure, Final Four MOP Kyle Singler decicded to spurn a likely first round NBA draft selection to return for his senior season.


Take all the reasons above, and factor in a questionable ACC and it is not too early to start "can Duke run the table" talk.

2. Ohio State - We had them #2 pre-season and the AP and ESPN polls have caught up.  The Buckeyes have the balance, athleticism and defensive abilities to cut down the nets.  Freshman Jared Sullinger is an absolute stud.  Think Blake Griffin.  The skill sets are very, very similar.  Blake Griffin was the #1 overall pick in the draft three years ago, and Sullinger is so good the comparison isn't an insult to either one of them.


What really puts Ohio State clearly ahead of some of the teams right below them is the senior leadership and all-around game of David Lighty.  Lighty was a freshman on the 2007 National Runner-Up team.  His defense is every bit as stellar as it was then, but his offensive game has really developed.  I liken this Ohio State team a lot to last year's Syracuse club.  Lighty plays the Wes Johnson role; a better defender and not quite as good a scorer (though a better shooter).


John Diebler is a stone cold assassin from the arc, a la Andy Routins and Lauderdale gives them the Rick Jackson/Onawaku-like banger inside.

Their win two weeks ago over Florida was as complete a ballgame as I have seen a team play this season and gave a good glimpse as to how good this year's Buckeyes can be.  Oddly enough, even after losing our National POY Evan Turner Ohio State is even better in 2010.

3. Kansas - This ranking is based more on gut feel and intuition than any imperical evidence.  The NCAA ended their glacial-paced stalemate over freshman Josh Selby's eligibility and the point guard will be ready to join the team officially on December 18th.  Considering most scouts had him rated on par with Duke's Kyrie Irving, the addition of Selby undoubtably makes the Jayhakws a more viable contender and eases some of the pain of losing Sherron Collins.


Kansas has yet to endure a true test, though their is nothing to be ashamed of beating Arizona and UCLA back-to-back.  However, the one-point margin over a really pedestrian UCLA team yesterday is cause for some pause.  I'm banking that the edition of Selby will elevate the Jayhawks to true national contender status, and is why they get the nod here over Kansas State, Michigan State and several worthy Big East squads.

Tuesday night's game against Memphis (7PM ESPN) is one I'm really looking forward to get a better read on the Jayhawks, though they will still be a work in progress until Selby suits up.

4. Georgetown - I'm going out on a little bit of a limb here, with Syracuse, Villanova and especially Pitt being rated much higher in the AP polls, however from the early eye test, Georgetown is the team to beat in the Big East.  With wins over Old Dominion, NC State and Missouri they have already passed some quality early tests.  The OT win over Missouri at absolute breakneck speed was as impressive as it was surprising.  Anyone think they'd ever see a John Thompson III coached team put up 111 points?!?  I sure didn't.




Austin Freeman is my early nod for BEast POY, and Jason Clark and Chris Wright join the party to give the Hoyas quite possibly the best backcourt in the nation.  Thursday's trip to Temple gives the Hoyas another chance to notch a good resume win before a trip to Memphis and begining the gauntlet of BEast play.

ELITE EIGHT:
5. Pitt - I've been tough on Pitt over the years, and the arguement can be made perhaps I am being a little tough on them here as well.  In my defense, 90% of the shots I have taken had Pitt have been proven absolutely correct.



So here's my early read on Pitt:  They are a tough, very tough, defensive ballclub that makes it difficult to initiate offense and can wear out the full 35 second clock.  They are a very good rebounding team and pound the glass on both ends.  Their difficiencies show up only on the offensive end. 


Ashton Gibbs can score and is a good creator on offense.  Wannamaker is a steady point guard, though not noted as a big offensive threat.  In order for Pitt to be a Final Four team, they are going to need big production from McGhee, Brown and Taylor. 


It's another fantastic start for the Panthers, racing out to a 9-0 record.  Their 2-point win over Texas was a fantastic game, and the win over Maryland could look better by the end of the year if the Terps surprise in the ACC.  Other than that, the resume is really blank.  They sqeaked out a win over Rhode Island in their opener and really haven't taken on a reasonable opponent aside from that.



This Saturday they tackle Tennessee in a game that will be a nice litmus test for both teams.  After that we get a pre-New Year's treat when they open BEast play Dec 27th at Connecticut.

6. Kansas State - There's just something that isn't quite clicking with the year's Wildcat squad.  Despite entering the season with their highest preseason ranking in school history, #3, the 'Cats seem to be adjusting a little slowly to life without Denis Clemente.  Jacob Pullen recieved most of the headlines last season, but it is difficult to understate the impact each man had in making the other better.  The two were able to share ballhandling and scoring duties simultaneously, something Pullen simply won't be able to do with Rodney McGruder and Martavious Irving. 



Curtis Kelley gives them tremendous athleticism and defense on the interior, as well as a dramatically improved post game.  Continuing to develop their inside game will make Pullen even more effective in the backcourt.


The disappointing Duke performance aside, and it is hard to find much fault with K-State's early returns.  They've notched double-digit wins at Gonzaga and over Virginia Tech, as well as quality wins over Washington State and James Madison. 



Their preconference schedule includes a trip to face Florida (played in Miami) and a Christmas Eve visit from UNLV, two more excellent challenges for Frank Martin's squad before entering Big 12 play.  They certainly will enter as the favorite, along with rival Kansas, however don't be surprised if they are joined by Missouri, Baylor and Texas, three squads with the potential to win the very strong Big 12.

7. Michigan State - Yes, the Spartans already have two losses but in Bracketeering a five point road loss in Cameron Indoor is no cause for punishement.  Neither is a five point loss on a neutral floor to UConn.  Huskies fans will likely take exception to being listed below Sparty; but consider two important criteria.  One, what is the ceiling for this ballclub?  Two, who have they played and how have they played them.
 


For Tom Izzo, the team on the floor in November is nearly always nowhere close to as good as the team will be in March.  If any coach has been better at "coaching up" a squad over the last 15 years, I don't know who it is.  The good news for Izzo?  This Spartan team doesn't have that far to go to be a legit Final Four contender.  With Kalin Lucas and Durell Summers and Draymond Green back in the fold, along with solid role players in Delvon Roe and Corey Lucious, plus some valuable size in Garrick Sherman and the talent and experience is clearly there.

Balancing out close losses to UConn and Duke are impressive victories over South Carolina and Washington.  Never one to duck a daunting schedule, Izzo's club takes on Syracuse this Tuesday and hosts Texas on the 22nd before starting Big Ten play on New Year's Eve with Minnesota.

8. UConn - Hands down, Kemba Walker is the undisputed National POY if the season ended today.  Of course it doesn't, and I have a feeling he is going to start facing some unique defensive looks if someone doesn't emerge quickly to help the 6'0'', 180 pound lead guard.  Outside of Walker, no one one the team averages more than 12 ppg.  Only big man Alex Orihaki is in double figures.

The Huskies followed up their impressive win over Michigan State by absolutely boat-racing Kentucky the next day in Hawaii.  Since returning to the mainland they've (hopefully) gotten their letdown stinkbomb out of their system, struggling with New Hampshire before taking the lead late, 62-55. 

Things remain calm for UConn until Dec 27th when we will get a true feel for this team over a daunting two week stretch that includes three road tests; @ Pitt, @ Notre Dame and @ Texas.  Win two of those three, and they will certainly vault over Michigan State.  Until then, call me just a touch skeptical the Kemba Walker show can continue to knock off top competition.    


Sweet and lurking: The next tier




 From here on in, things get pretty tricky.  If we know one thing about this early season it is that parity is reigning supreme.  A healthy arguement could be made for about forty teams, and in truth, very few have satisfactorily serparated themselves thus far.  This is where the Maniac eye comes in to play.  You will find a few teams that have earned their slot on the floor who didn't make the cut (Notre Dame) as well as a few who haven't earned it who snag a slot (Kentucky).  Here's our take on the Sweet Sixteen tier.

9. Illinois - Demetri McCammey and company showed they belong among the nation's elite, as well as the Big Ten's which will prove every bit as competitive with their OT loss to Texas in Madison Square Garden.  This weekend the Illini easily handled a good Gonzaga squad.  Their wins over Maryland and North Carolina are two valuable chips in their favor, as well as a nice frame of reference for how much stronger the Big Ten is versus the ACC in 2010-2011.  The renewal of their border rivalry with Missouri on Dec 22nd will be an absolute dandy.

10. UNLV - Not many teams have done more in the preconference season than the Runnin' Rebs.  They have already knocked off Wisconsin as well as notching double digit wins over Murray State, Virginia Tech and Illinois State.  The Mountain West is one of the best conferences in the nation this year, not just one of the best non-BCS leagues.  From top to bottom this conference is better than the Pac-10 and SEC and certainly wouldn't be embarrassed by the ACC either. Winning that league this year could be plenty to earn a #2 seed if UNLV or San Diego State continue their stellar early season non-conference play.


11. Missouri -  The Tiger's OT loss to Georgetown is every bit as good as a win in our book.  Missouri is still playing at a breakneck tempo that is going to give teams fits all season.  This weeks matchup with Vanderbilt is going to be an awesome experiement in tempo control.  If the Tigers can speed up the 'Dores, they should roll.  If Vandy can keep the game in the 60's or lower, it is going to be fascinating to see if Mizzou can still score and defend efficiently.  Here's betting they can, and will.

12. Purdue - The loss of senior Robbie Hummel to his second ACL injury in as many years is a horrible blow to an otherwise Top 5 team.  However, be cautious in writing the Boilermakers off just yet.  E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson both chose to forgo the NBA draft and return to West Lafayette for one more season.  Purdue can compete with any team in the nation, but they are going to have to getter better play out of the trio of John Hart, Kelsey Barlow and Lewis Jackson in order to do so.  

The eleven point road loss to Richmond wasn't a good effort, but Richmond is a legit tourney team and will contend to win the A-10.  Purdue showed some real guts in their OT win over Virginia Tech (who is already sowing the seeds of yet another angst-filler bubble straddling season) and they follwed it up Saturday with a pasting of Alabama.  The Big Ten is brutal this year, easily the best and most complete league in the country, so to expect the Boilermakers to post the same record this season as last would be asking a bit much.  Don't infer that to mean this isn't a very, very good team.



Purdue will continue to have a pretty light load leading into conference play, thus a low RPI as the calendar turns to 2011.  However, they will have ample opportunity to earn huge resume wins nearly every week once Big Ten play commences.

13. Kentucky -  The Wildcats certainly have some work to do to even begin to approach their considerable talent.  That was extremely evident in this weekend's two point loss to struggling North Carolina (who much like the Wildcats will be considerably better in six to eight weeks.)  However they showed flashes of their potential brilliance in their routine win over Washington in Maui.  The 84-67 drubbing at the hands of UConn raised some concerns as the seemed unable to corral Kemba Walker despite the tremedous athleticism the Wildcats posses in their backcourt.  That tells me this team is still a bit immature and needs to strengthen their resolve on the defensive end of the court.

Brandon Knight has been impressive early, and looks to be the real deal though he will get very little media attention with Kyrie Irving and Josh Selby stealing many of the headlines.  Kentucky will struggle all year with stretches of offensive ineptitude unless they can find someone other than Darius Miller who can consistently knock down open jump shots.  Until then, expect the Cats to see a lot of zones and collapsing defenses on stud freshman Terrance Jones.

Wednesday's visit from Notre Dame will be an interesting test for both teams, and New Year's Day's trip to Louisville's new KFC Center is about as fun as college hoops gets.
14. Washington - Washington took a pair of defeats in Maui, a well played loss to Kentucky followed by another close defeat to Michigan State.  They do own a 106-63 blasting of Virginia (who beat Minnesota last week) and an equally thorough dismantling of Texas Tech  (Pat Knight might want to start updating the resume...).

Monday's tussle with Portland should be an interesting under-the-radar game, and this weekend's trip to Texas A&M will be an interesting ball game as well.  Once Pac-10 play begins, it appears Washington should be able to do some damage, as no one other than Arizona has shown much so far this season.  Isiah Thomas has shown some flashes of what was expected of him prior to last year's freshman campaign, averaging 15 points and a plus 2:1 assist/turnover ratio.

15. San Diego State - I really like this Aztec team and flirted with slotting them as high as ninth.  Khawi Leonard is a bigtime player, but he is by no means a one-man show.  Steve Fisher's squad has already gone into the Kennel and notched a comfortable win over the Zags and follwed it up with a 14 point win over the other WCC favorite, St. Mary's.  Tonight they downed Wichita State by 17, continuing their stellar preconference campaign.

The schedule is pretty barren over the next three weeks with a Cal team that has at times looked completely inept offensively the only real obstacle to starting the year 16-0.  Following that, things begin to get a lot more competitive with home and home's with UNLV, BYU, New Mexico, Air Force and Utah in MWC play. 

16. Tennessee - Slotting the Vols at #16 puts them considerably lower than the polls currently have them, and truthfully the Vols have earned a better ranking with their on-court play.  If their off-court play, specifically the issues with Bruce Pearl's suspension that have me still unsold on whether or not Tennessee is a serious contender to earn a top-four seed come March.

Wins over Villanova and VCU are impressive.  This weekend's trip to Pittsburgh is one you are going to want to DVR.  Both teams employ a similar athletic, defense-first style of play and it will be a treat to see who plays it better.

The SEC East is as good as any division in college basketball while the SEC West is simply dreadful.  Unfortunatly for the Vols, residing in the East gives them eight games against Kentucky, Florida, Vandy and Georgia respectively.  Add in Jan 5th's annual Memphis tilt and the Vols are going to get plenty of chances to earn some more big wins.

Bracket Busts: Five early season disappointments

Butler - What a difference a year makes.  Six months ago the Bulldogs were a mere few inches from capturing a fairytale-like National Championship.  This year they have already been blownout by Louisville and Duke in addition to a very disappointing loss to Evansville.  With games with Xavier, Stanford and Utah still looming Butler better learn how to play without Gordon Hayward quickly or else they may find themselves needing to win the Horizon's automatic bid in order to return to the Dance.






Cal - No one was expecting Mike Montgomery's troops to be a Final Four team this year, but they certainly were expected to earn a tourney invite.  The Bears have some major work to do in order to make that expectation a reality.  The low point came in the Old Spice Classic where they scored FIVE first half points en route to a humbling loss to Notre Dame.  They were also humbled in a 68-46 loss to Boston College (who has already dropped a game to Yale).

Perhaps no team better emphasises the tremendous balance and inconsistency across the national landscape than Cal.  Despite those two terribly played losses they do own impressive wins; a 25-point pasting of New Mexico and a 57-50 win over Temple.  Tonight's three point win over Iowa State isn't a huge deal, but they did show signs of coming out of their offensive coma and will get a huge opportunity to soften damage of the two losses Wednesday night when they host San Diego State.

Gonzaga - The Zags were underrated so long that they are now flirting with entering the territory of badly overrated.  Their is nothing embarrassing about losses to San Diego State, Illinois and Kansas State.  However at some point you have to beat some quality teams if you have intentions of  being perceived as quality yourself.  In accordance with their always daunting non-conference scheduling Gonzaga gets a few more cracks at it with games against Xavier, Washington State, Notre Dame, Baylor and Memphis.  Three losses in that bunch might put them in recently-unfamiliar territory; needing to win the WCC to earn entry to the tourney.

The Missouri Valley - For the past decade there has been good reason for the big boys to fear a visit from a member of the Valley.  Wichita State, Creighton and Northern Iowa have all had their fair share of giant-slaying glory including some memorable tourney runs.  With the way this early season has played out with every team dropping at least two games in addition to notching very few marquee wins, it is shaping up to be another one-bid season for the MVC.

Colorado - There was some growing sentiment before the season that standout sophomore Alex Burks and the Buffs could be a good sleeper team in the Big 12.  At 4-3 with losses to Georgia, San Fransisco and a sixteen point schelacking by Harvard, it seems sleeper might have been better termed sleeping.

Half Court Heaves:  Teams Worth Keeping an Eye On:

Cleveland State (10-0, but only quality opponent they face all year is South Florida.  Still they might be able to make things interesting for Butler in the Horizon)

Cincinnati (8-0) - Don't look now, but there is no reason the Bearcats shouldn't be 16-0 entering Big East play.

UCF (8-0) - The Knights opened some eyes with their win over Florida this week.  The Knights still have contests with Miami (FL) and UMass before entering play in the balanced Conference USA

Possible Tourney Teams as of Today:

Richmond, Temple, Dayton, Vanderbilt, Murray State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida, Marquette, Texas, Louisville, Maryland, UAB, Memphis, So. Miss, VCU, Old Dominion, George Mason, Drexel, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Miami (FL), Xavier, Northwestern, Kent State, BYU, New Mexico, Arizona, Washington State, Charleston, IPFW,

The Mighty Mastadons have only 2 losses, both close games with Xavier & Cincinnati

Good Day to Wear Orange

It's a good day to wear orange for sure, particularly if the orange is the trim on the white jerseys.

Tennessee and Oklahoma State secured their at-large bids today by knocking off the Top 2 teams in the country, respectively.  A few things showed through in the games.  One, Kentucky was impressive in the comeback, even though they lost.  Fortunately there are no road games in the NCAA Tourney, and seeing how Kentucky fans travel like mad it will never feel like a road game come March.  The second thing is that James Anderson needs to be on the list with Wall, Turner, Wesley Johnson and Scottie Reynolds for National Player of the Year.  I'm not saying he should win it, but he certainly deserves to be in the conversation.

The pair of losses raises an interesting question.  With #1 and #2 losing, suppose Purdue wins tomorrow at home against Michigan State.  Do voters have the cajones to vote a Robbie Hummel-less Purdue squad #1 in the country??  I think they don't. 

If Syaracuse gets the win over a tough Villanova team tonight at the Carrier Dome, expect the 'Cuse to be the nation's top ranked team on Monday.

If ALL FOUR lose, I really have no clue what voters will do.  Don't be surprised if the polls remain largely the same at the top, with only Nova and K-State creeping up...

As we say often, the best thing about polls is that strippers use them.  In college hoops, we settle it on the court, but the next few weeks are going to get crazyin terms of jostling for seeds.

Moving and Shaking

Today is going to be filled with movers and shakers.  Movers; as into prime tourney position; and Shakers, teams whose footing is going to be shaky with a loss to say the least.

Here is a quick rundown of the biggest games of a packed Saturday.

Louisville @ West Virginia:  The Cards are 13-7, and a loss today would drop them to 13-8.  With nary a great win on their resume and looming blowout losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina, anything shy of a huge step-up game today leaves them in dire straights.  For the Mountaineers, a number one seed isn't out of the question, but they can't drop any more home games.  Especially to teams like the 'Ville.

Marquette @ Connecticut:   The Warriors are the textbook definition of a tough-luck ballclub, having lost three games in conference to Top 25 team in the final seconds.  Since the NCAA committee rarely looks at margin of loss, the biggest stat that matters right now is 12-8.   Connecticut is only one game better at 13-7, but has better non-conference wins (and losses) and a little more name cache (not that it is supposed to matter).  Interesting fact, Marquette is 0-5 on the road this season.  If that streak runs to six, it's time to kick some dirt on their grave.  However, should they win, the middle of the BEast gets intersting with both teams in a six or seven team scrum for likely two, possibly three bids.  It's a BIG game in Storrs (but let's hope the Huskie fans don't storm the court if they win...seriously...stay off the floor.)

Duke @ Georgetown:  Wow!  How often do we get an Elite Eight level non-conference game this late in the year?  Not very often, so enjoy it.  The winner puts a HUGE chip in their pile and stays on track for a #1 or #2 seed.  Duke loses less with a loss since its a true road game.  If the Hoyas lose, it has them trending towards a 4/5 seed.  Neither team is crippled with a loss, but still a fantastic game worth tuning in to.

Oklahoma St. @ Missouri:  A HUGE battle for 4th place in the Big 12 (and with K-State at Kansas tonight, perhaps even third place...).  Both teams have been pleasantly surprising this year, easily outpacing Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  OK State is 16-4, Mizzou stands at 15-5, and they are tied in conference play.  This game gives the winner a huge leg up in getting to the Dance.

Baylor @ Texas:  Put Baylor in the category with the two teams above; pleasantly surprising.  Texas is still a beast - don't let the recent slide fool you.  They are still in line for a possible #1 seed...unless Baylor clips them on the road.  A win like this one would likely have Scott Drew's Bears on the right side of the bubble come March.


Vanderbilt @ Kentucky:  Forget the subplot lines; Kentucky rebounding from their first loss, Vandy trying to stay hot, etc.  This game is for the lead in the SEC East.  If Vandy nips the Cats, they would open up a two game conference lead and have already beaten Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina on the road.  Doesn't that sound like the resume of a Top 2 seed??  Not saying ANY of that will happen, but today's game is bigger than it looks on paper (and in the AP polls).


Harvard @ Cornell:  Forget the hyperbole for all the games I scrawled above about getting in or not making the tournament.  The most important game of the day is happening on the campus of the Cornell Red.  The Ivy League is the only league that refuses to play a conference tournament, meaning the regular season winner gets the league's tourney bid.  I have read a few columns that suggested the Red would earn an at-large bid should they falter to the Crimson.  Don't believe that for a second!  Sentimentality aside, their signature "win" is a close loss to Kansas.  If that's what you are looking for, give Charlie Weiss and extension at Notre Dame.  This game is do-or-die, and probably the best game in the country tomorrow.  Of course, unless you live on campus at Cornell, I don't think you'll be able to see it...just check back here for the coverage...


Northwestern @ Michigan State:  Many people on TV and radio suggested the Wildcats need this game to have any chance at the tourney (not true - as my loyal readers know) BUT if they can repeat last year's surprising win at Sparty it does put a HUGE chip in their pile for earning their first ever NCAA bid.  That said, don't dispair when Sparty hammers them.


Kansas @ Kansas State:  The Maniac was one of many who praised the KSU students for staying OFF the court after beating then-number one Texas.  Drop now #1 Kansas?  Have at it guys, have at it.  And while you are at it, dodge the subsequent let down game and you have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 and earning a #2 seed.  For KU, a win here puts them back atop the polls and has them trending towards the #1 overall seed in the tournament.

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A New Year of Bracketeering - Jan 8th, 2010

The calendar has turned and we bravely embark on a new decade of Bracketeering. First off - a big thanks to all our readers, you are growing in numbers and pretty soon the Maniac has a feeling that relatives will no longer control the majority of our audeince... goodtimes indeed.

For our neophytes, a quick synopsis of the methodology employed here: 1. We do not care about the AP and coaches poll, wins and losses do not move you up or down a prescribed number of slots. 2. We do our best to weigh both performance, but also a little predictive nature as well, meaning not just what you have done, but also waht our eyes tell us you can do. 3. You are welcome to piss, moan and complain about our rankings. We enjoy the emails, and have learned several new creatives profanities from you. So, Mazel Tov, and Happy New Year.

Enjoy the decade's first edition of Bracketeering.

FINAL FOUR:

1. Texas - I definitely flirted with dropping the Horns this week after a few somnambulistic performances against UT Corpus Christi and Arkansas. However, don't most good team go through a few little lulls here and there, especially in games against lesser competition? What I do know is that when the big boys came to play, the Horns beat 'em by double digits. They win a lot of games late, if for no other reason than they have tremendous depth. The general fan is more familiar with the names on Kansas and Kentucky's rosters, but the Horns are ten deep, athletic and balanced. For now - they keep our top slot once again.

2. Kansas - Some people will overreact to the close call at home against Cornell, but not us. The Red are good. Even better? The stern test of the Jayhawks before the rigors of confere4nce play commence. It has been a long time since they were tested. It is good to find out who your Alpha Dog is before everything is on the line in March. And if there was any doubt, there is no longer. It's Sherron Collins. His numbers aren't spectacular; and therein lies his greatest strength on my POY ballot. He is assimilating all the talent available with aplomb, and gives them everything you want from a PG who will be contending for a National Title. So, yeah, I've come around on Collins.

Oh, and the dismantling of a good Temple team on the road was as brilliant as a team has played this year. Not this team. Any team.

3. Purdue - I'm starting to really love this team. They share the ball better than any team in the nation, and remind me a lot of the 2006-2007 Gator squad. They have good players with clearly, and perfectly defined roles. They have NBA talent with Johnson, Hummel and E'Twan Moore. They have the best glue guy in country in Chris Kramer and have a functional bench. They are not more talented per se than our #4 team, but gut instict tells me they are a little better as a team.

This is a huge "show me" stretch coming up for the Boilers with a trip to the Kohl Center tomorrow (where the Badgers have already beaten Duke) and a visit from the once again Evan Turner-led Buckeyes on Tuesday. Win both? Final Four talk has to heat up beyond Boiling in West Lafayette.

4. Kentucky - Fourth? Last week I have them #2, they handle Louisville, I write a "Run the Table" column...and now drop them to fourth? It's not an indictment of the Cats, it's simply that Kansas and Purdue looked brilliant the past week, and the Cats are still a little more potential than polish. That said, with Wall and Cousins blossoming more every week, it is getting harder and harder to see this team not making the short drive to Indy this April. Think there'd be a few Cat fans there??

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Duke - I'm getting less and less gun shy about my take on the Devils everytime I see them play...but still have an ounce of trepidation after the way they eveaporated in conference play and the tourney. That said, they are number 5...and then there is a drop. I'd be comfortable with them in the Final Five is such a thing existed.

Is there a classier act in college hoops than Coach K? The Dukies played a neutral court game with Iowa State in their annual tradition of bringing a game to a veteran player's hometown to play in front of friends and family. This time, John Scheyer did not disappoint, playing brilliantly and continuing his surprising First Team All-American campaign (and yes, he would have my vote once my ballot arrives....waiting...hmmm....)

6. Syracuse - Perhaps the loss to Pitt wasn't so bad in retrospect? We'll know more in a few weeks. What I do know, is that aside from that blip (where I thought Pitt just caught fire from behind the arc against the zone), they've looked like a Final Four caliber team. Great guard play, an All-American swingman in Wesley Johnson and some bangers underneath. Still love this team, and the bounce back win over Memphis shows me they are mentally tough as well.

7. West Virginia - Losing to Purdue is not a big deal. They should have lost to Marquette, but didn't. That said, this team has loads of talent and is dangerous. They are seventh, but I think I'd prefer to have them eighth, and leave the seventh slot open. There is that clear of a gap between the Top Six so far this season and the rest of the pack. Let's see if the 'Eers can maintain their focus and win two they should (Notre Dame and USF) before hosting Syracuse next weekend.

8.Kansas State - The Wildcats are just kind of hovering for the time being. I'm not sure they are the 8th best team in the country but am looking forward to getting a read on them this weekend with a trip to Missouri and a Tuesday visit from Texas A&M. Oh, and there's a little trip from Texas next weekend as well...

Sweet and lurking: The next tier

9. Michigan State - Is the run starting? It usually comes around February, until next thing you know, the Spartans are the dangerous #2 seed no one wants in their Region. The difference this year? They were as high as #2 in many national polls until a few early losses knocked them off the radar. The solid win over Wisconsin was impressive. Although there are no "gimmes" in the Big Ten (save for Iowa) their next seven games are all realistically "should wins" with the possible exception of a trip to Minnesota. Expect the Spartans to be right in the thivk of the Big Ten race when an exciting pair of games with Purdue rolls around this February.

10. Ole Miss - Maybe a little high considering the two losses are to upper echelon Big East teams, Villanova and West Virginia, which could suggest they are not a top tier team. Their inside play is uneven at best and not always pretty to watch. However, the old axiom that guard play wins in the tourney bodes well for Ole Miss who boasts the most underrated backcourt in the country.

11. Villanova - Wow, it seems like the #11 hole is where we weekly bury the upcoming prospects of some unsuspecting mid-major. Last edition we offered Temple up to the basketball Gods, only to have them sacrificed on the Jayhawks alter. This week, we flirted with a few of our mid-major darlings, but were compelled to concede the spot belongs to Villanova. I think it is becoming my silent accidental bias, but I am just never sold on these guys, despite the tourney success every year with Scottie Reynolds and Jay Wright. I am curious to see how they handle a visit from tough luck 1-2 Marquette and their trip to Louisville on Tuesday.

12. Connecticut - They have three losses by a combined total of fourteen points. The losses: Duke, Kentucky and at Cincinnati. They have a few holes, but much like Carolina I would be fearful of this team in March. They have one of the highest ceilings of any Big East team.

13. Northern Iowa - Yeah, I'm aware they are unranked in the polls. That's because most voters don't realize that good basketball happens outside the Big Six conferences, Memphis and Gonzaga. The Missouri Valley is consistently incredibly balanced and good. The Panthers are 4-0 in league play with wins over three of the top challengers (all by comfortable margins); Southern Illinois, Creighton and Missouri State. They have a tricky trip to Illinois State tomorrow (which I have probably effectively hexed them in...)

14. Wake Forest - I'm not sure why we all collectively forgot about the Deac's heading into this season. Sure, they miss early entries Johnson and Teague, but still have All-American candidate Al-Farouq Aminu dominating the paint. Admittedly this spot could have just as easily gone to Miami, Florida State, North Carolina (who I refuse to give up on!) and possibly even Virginia Tech. However, I give Wake the nod after completing a month without a loss that included wins over Gonzaga, NC State, Richmond and Xavier.

The Demon Deacons have a tough stretch with a trip to Miami tomorrow, a visit from Maryland Tuesday, then consecutive trips to Durham and Chapel Hill.

So in all likliehood, we have also put a well-timed hex on Wake! That said, go 2-2, and life is fine. Emerge 3-1 and this spot is more than well earned; it's too low.

15. Gonzaga - We are officially absolving them for the Duke disaster, figuring they are not the first or the last team to get humiliated on a bad day against the Dukies. They followed it up by winning at Oklahoma and at Illinois. Let's see how they handle the next, and most difficult remaining, stretch of the season: AT Portland tomorrow, AT St Mary's on Tuesday and AT San Diego next weekend. Win those three and they grab the improved WCC by the throat and can begin focusing on earning a Top 4 seed for March. Goodness knows they've played the schedule to merit it.

16. Rhode Island - Last week we honored USC with our final slot. They rewarded us by sacrificing their hoops program to save Pete Carrol's Golden Goose and banned themselves from post season play. So from here on in, they are similarly banned from Bracketeering. If you aren't going to the Big Dance, then just go away.

This edition's beneficiary? How about the Rams? They are 12-1, and are playing in the Nation's sixth best conference. Yes, the A-10 is clearly better than the Pac-10. Get over it BCS honks.

This Sunday's Temple v. Rhode Island game is one of the first real gems of many in A-10 conference play. After Temple, they get a few easier tests before back-to-back roadies at Xavier and Dayton to end Januaury. By then we'll have a pretty good read on how the A-10 is going to shake out. For now, we give the Rams the nod, but acknowledge Temple, Dayton and Xavier could all win the league, and expect some pressure from Richmond and maybe even Charlotte and George Washington.


Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Cal is a disaster, I've all but given up on the Bears. Oklahoma is approaching that status as well. Seton Hall seemed formidable but is 0-3 in BEast play and is certainly on the ropes. Xavier is disappointing at 9-5, but have taken very few bad losses. They are a 4 or 5 game win streak away from being relevant again. Butler is not in terrible shape, but needs to win their league more than they have in year's past after an unimpressive and uneven non-conference performance.

Is it fair to label Portland a disappointment? Consider that if not for an avalanche of early attention from beating UCLA (who we now know sucks out loud), and a injury/suspension ridden Minnesota team, would anyone have really cared much about the Pilots? Either way, after expectations heightened they responded with losses to Portland State, Idaho, Washington and Nevada. They are not an at-large team anymore, and will need to upset Gonzaga tomorrow to have any life left in their fading chances.

It isn't fair to label these two teams a bust, but I am sure Northwestern and Ohio State were hoping for better conference starts. The good news for Ohio State is Evan Turner's back in plenty of time to save the season. Unfortunately for NW, Kevin Coble is nowhere in sight and things are looking bleak for ending the most famous tourney drought in the country.

Half Court Heaves: Teams outside the common radar worth keeping an eye on
I usually just list the teams you may not have heard of, this week we include a few more teams from power conferences that have a good chance to contend for a bid. My near-locks are bolded. Teams that are strong enough that they could mess things up by losing the conference tourney and swiping a possible at-large are italicized.

Miami, Florida State, Pitt, Louisville, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Vermont, Richmond, Xavier, Dayton, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northern Colorado, Denver, Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Coastal Carliona, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, William & Mary, Old Dominion, UAB, Tulsa, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Harvard, Siena, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Murray State, Washington, Washington State, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Western Carolina, Texas San-Antonio, St. Mary's, Louisiana Tech (though very doubtful they snag an at-large judging by historical WAC results)

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New Year's Conference Resolutions: Big Twelve

Here's the second of ten conference installments of some New Year's Resolutions and Prognostications. As always, your dissension is welcomed...

BIG Twelve:

The Big Twelve came into the year as our Playboy Award candidate (conference heaviest up top with a lot of airbrushing below), with Kansas and Texas clearly being a notch above everyone else and quite possibly above the rest of the country.

Having two dominant superpowers rule the roost isn't necessarily a bad thing; see Duke and UNC in the ACC. However, the question loomed, is there any depth beyond the Big Two in this year's Big 12? So far this season, it has looked like there certainly is, and there might possibly be a few Sweet 16 caliber teams lurking around.

Kansas State has to be one of the most pleasant surprises in 2009, racing out to an impressive 12-1 start with wins over Xavier, UNLV, Dayton and Washington State. Baylor has also looked better than expected and should contend for a bid.

Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have amassed some early wins as well and should contend for a bid...though we're not quite ready to label them tourney bound just yet. The only glaring dissapointment thus far has been Oklahoma. We knew there would be an adjustment perios without Blake and Taylor Griffin, but felt confident Willie Warren would be able to hold the rope (particularly with "Tiny" Gallon anchoring it...) So far? Not so good. Not good at all.

Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:

The Good:
Texas looks fantastic, and we have felt solid having them at the top spot in Bracketeering from the season's outset. The 76-70 sleep-walk today against TX-Corpus Christi is understandable; their two games prior were wins over UNC and Michigan State. A letdown was inevitable. Rick Barnes has a few weeks to get them geared up for back-to-backers at Kansas State and at UConn.

Kansas is good. OK, Kansas is real good. After watching them dismantle Temple on the road toady I'm ready to concede this is probably the best team in the country. They have no holes. Sherron Collins is distributing the ball and running the team flawlessly. Xavier Henry is truly playing the "Grant Hill 1991" role on this team. Watching his poise, intelligence fused with blinding athleticism and a feathery touch on the mid range jumper... to me the comparison is accurate and uncanny. Throw in the best back-to-the-basket center in the nation in Alderich and it isn't unreasonable to think they will be unbeaten when the Feb. 8th date with Texas comes rolling around.

Win that one? Yeah...it does get intriguing...

Kansas State is not just good. They are Sweet Sixteen caliber legit. It is tough to put them in a category with the two above, but they seem like tourney locks barring a complete collapse and deserve the separation from the pack..

The Unknown:
Here is where things get a little dicey in the Big 12. Early season performance would seem to merit five to seven (high side) bids come March. The above three are locks. Here's how The Maniac sees it playing out for the remaining bids.

I like the talent and chemistry Scott Drew has working down in Baylor. In 2007 they were the conference's darlings, making an improbable return to respectability and the NCAA tourney. Last year they disappointed under heightened expectations and we were forced to wonder just where this program truly stood. An 11-1 start with wins over Xavier, South Carolina and Arizona State is a good indication the ceiling is high. They have solid guard play with Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn and Udoh gives them a nice presence in the paint. I think Baylor returns to the dance, but it will be an interesting ride.

My conference sleeper is Missouri. Little was expected of the Tigers after losing DeMarre Carroll and three other starters from last year's Elite Eight squad. However, the Tigers are entering league play at 11-3 with some impressive wins under their belt: Old Dominion. Illinois by 13. Georgia by 28. Oregon by 37. Not just the wins, but the margins tell me that the Tigers frenetic style can still be effective, even with personal changes. They are a surprising threat to get back to the NCAA Tournament.

Okahoma State and Texas Tech are the toughest reads. Both have very good records that would likely get them tourney consideration with .500 conference seasons. However, I just don't think either is quite good enough to get on the other side of the bubble. Texas Tech's best win is Washington. Their only other decent win is Stanford. They've lost to Wichita State by 2 and failed their big litmus test last week losing to New Mexico by 15. More troubling is the struggles they've had with team's they are supposed to beat; Oregon State by 4, Stephen F. Austin by 2, McNeese State by one... they just don't seem ready for Big 12 rigors to me.

Ditto for Oklahoma State. Their best win is a 1-pointer over Stanford and a win over a down Utah team. They've lost to the two best teams they've faced; Rhode Island and Tulsa. Exactly the teams they'll be on the Big Board against when the committee has to decide whether to invite a fifth or sixth Big 12 team or reward one of the "have-nots." Those losses tip the scales undeniably in the opposite direction for the 'Pokes.

If a sixth team does get in, I like Texas A&M. The Aggies have slipped off the radar the past few weeks after losses at Washington and New Mexico (by 3- no shame in that loss). They do already own wins over Clemson and Minnesota, two teams that could very likely find themselves in a similar spot come March; 18-19 wins, fifth or sixth place in a power league. Those are good chips in the Ag's favor. They get Texas only once this year and get to host that game in late February. A win over the Horns could punch their dance card.

Oklahoma stays in the "unknown" category, simply because it is still too early to completely write them off. Willie Warren has struggled and it appears as though Jeff Capel is struggling with what to do with the talented Soph. They got hammered on New Year's by Gonzaga in yet another no-show against a quality opponent. They got waxed by VCU, and have losses to UTEP, Houston and San Diego - each more difficult to explain in ascending order. The 1-point win over Northern Colorado and the squeaker with Utah don't inspire much confidence either.

So why are they still above the Maniac's cut line? They still have NBA-level talent; particularly in Warren. And because other than trips to Lawrence and Austin there isn't a game they can't win on that schedule. 10-6 in the Big 12 gets you dancing. It's possible for the Sooners. But they better get it together. And Soon...

Iowa State - Of all the teams near the bottom group, this one is the most disappointing. With Craig Brackens surprising draft experts and deciding to come back to school, some optimism that the Cyclones could return to the tourney for the first time since Tim Floyd had Marcus Fizer and Jamaal Tinsley (and one of the Maniac's faves, Paul Shirley) in uniform began to arise. Three losses in a row dampened things a bid, but when the smoke clears losing to Northwestern (by 2), Northern Iowa (by 3) and at Cal aren't terrible losses. The schedule gives them an opportunity for redemption with a trip to Cameron Indoor and the Dukies...but it is just as likely a stern national showing of how NIT-at-best the 'Clones are in 2010. For the same reason as above with the Sooners, they stay above the cut-line, but they are a distant 10th in my estimation - a true long shot.


The BAD:

Colorado has always seemed a sleeping giant to me. Unfortunately no one woke them up again this year. Perhaps Chauncey Billups has a year of eligibility hiding somewhere... They showed a little fight early, hanging real tough with Gonzaga and Arizona over in Maui. Since then they have been blasted by 15 by Colorado State and by 25 at Tulsa. There is a good chance they are no better than the third or fourth best team in a basketball-light state (Northen Colorado and Denver).

Nebraska seems to pile 10 or 11 non-conference wins up every year. Just enough to keep them in that "if they win 4 of their last 5 they have a bubble shot" discussion every year. We;re not falling for it. They have two solid wins; USC and Tulsa. As a matter of fact, glancing over their resume, I get the feeling if they could just squeeze eight wins out in conference play....

Ah, forget it.

Final Score:
Texas and Kansas are #1 seeds in March. I just can't see anyone closing the gap enough to push either of them out. Kansas State feels like a Top 4 seed as well, and definitely no worse than a solid tourney team. This is the only conference in the country with two legit national champion contenders (Yes, the Big Ten and Big East could. But No one in the stratosphere of KU and UT though.)

It will be a rocky ride on the bubble all year in the middle of the pack. Like many conferences of this high caliber, parity will smack around the pack. That said, I like Baylor, Missouri and A&M to dance. Oklahoma is still a quality sleeper to watch and Oklahoma State and Texas Tech should get in if the can stay north of .500. In doing that, they'd knock off one of the other's above.

The Big 12 should factor no worse than the 4th best RPI conference overall, and most likely Texas and Kansas should push them to #2 or #3. That should be good enough for 6 bids in March, though seven isn't out of the question.

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Welcome to 2010 Baby

New Year. New Decade. And an incredible slate of college hoops to start it off right. This weekend will give hoops fans an opportunity to most of the nation's best teams (except Texas, who did it last week) get tested.

The game of the day features more than just great hoops. It features the greatest intensifier of all; good old fashioned hate. Rick Pitino visits his old stompin' grounds of hallowed Rupp Arena tomorrow in a position his Cards haven't been in for several years; trying to spring the upset on the heavily favored 'Cats. To add even a little more spice to the day, Calipari was recently the target of some rather pointed criticism by Bobby Knight, while Rick Pitino's offseason read like a John Grisham novel. In fact, it prompted one of the best shirts I've ever seen; sported by a Card fan it read simply "at least our coach only cheats OFF the court." Twisted, but inspired to say the least...

Yes Rick, all eyes on you indeed...

Gotta love the passion down in the Bluegrass. Kentucky is favored by 8, and despite the margin it will be the best test of tournament-style intensity the Cats have faced this year. Carolina and UCONN were great wins, but the volume and magnitude of this game is a great introduction to the passion of March for freshman Bledsoe, Cousins and Wall. Should the Cats survive the Cards and a Jan 12th trip to Gainesville, expect the "undefeated" talk to really ratchet up a notch...

Kansas plays their first real game of the year and gets a chance to finally shut The Maniac up about their soft road thus far. The Jayhawks travel to Philly to face red-hot Temple (5:30 EST) and their tempo-controlling style. The 'Hawks have more talent, but how will they handle their first true test outside of the Phogg? If the Owls can pull one of the first legit "upsets" of this young season (sidenote: Saw a headline on a major sports site, claiming "Bearcats STUN #10 UConn at the buzzer" Holy hyperbole Batman!) they can start looking at a Top 10 ranking and begin thinking Top 4 seed in March...

UConn and Syracuse have quality ballgames, though it might constitute an "off game" by brutal Big East standards. Both play at home, hosting Notre Dame and Pitt respectivly. Meanwhile Villanova takes a tricky trip to Marquette, who will be trying to regroup after gagging one up in West Virginia earler this week. Every day is a good day in the Big East. Don't be surprised if one, or all, of these games is closer than expected.

UAB has an interesting trip to Arkansas Saturday. Should the Hogs beat them, the Blazers will have dropped back-to-backers to UVA and Arkansas; two of the bottom teams in the BCS conferences. That wouldn't bode particularly well for Conference USA, especially after Houston lost to Texas-San Antonio tonight at home.

Big Ten play continues as well after an already-eventful start when Michigan State heads to Northwestern. Should Northwestern fall, they can kiss their brief time in the Top 25 goodbye...and also might begin to worry about their tourney prospects with their schedule not relenting anytime soon (and an 0-2 Big Ten start).

Tomorrow also features a real bevy of late, quality, non-conference tilts. Baylor at South Carolina is a nice matchup of bubble-caliber teams from good, multi-bid leagues. Gonzaga at Illinois is yet another stiff test for the Zags. They looked great last night hammering Oklahoma, but will they have enough gas in the tank against an Illini squad that can ill-afford another setback?

Oklahoma State takes a daring trip to Rhode Island tomorrow evening. Kudos to the Cowboys for playing a game like this against a smaller-name, very solid A-10 team. The A-10 has quite a day lined up with some Big Six foes. Charlotte will be hosting ACC Georgia Tech to round out the trifecta. It will be interesting to see how all three handle the opportunity.

I,m not sure if any cable outlet in America will be providing the 4pm game between William & Mary and Hofstra, but at this point I feel obligated to keep you updated on the Tribe. They are seeking to follow up their Maryland road win with another tough, albeit less glamorous, road win. This is a classic trap game, with Hofstra not expected to be among the CAA elite, but the kind of game you need to win if you want to be a serious at-large contender. By the way, not sure it means much right now (and of course it will drop as conference play lowers their strength of schedule) but W&M is 6th in the RPI as the calendar flips to 2010. Just thought you'd like to know.

Home of the nation's #6 team?? It's pretty early to look at RPI's...but still worth taking notice

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Saturday's Picks

The Maniac looks to continue a blistering start on a loaded college hoops Saturday. Quick Picks below. As always, we of course don't condone gambling in any manner. However, if one were to gamble, I'd like to point out we are over 65% ATS on the season...

Michigan +20 @ Kansas - Kansas hasn't been tested in a month, Michigan has failed every test in 2009's early going. It seems to point in the Jayhawks favor, but I think Michigan hangs around enough to cover.

Mississippi St -3 @ Houston - Missisippi State has quietly begun to find their stride. Houston has been good at times this season, but the Bulldogs are too talented to fall tonight.

North Carolina +6.5 @ Texas - It is difficult to say how either team will react to cavernous Cowboys Stadium, but I do feel confident that the Tarheels will not be overwhelmed by the environment. They have already played Ohio State and Syracuse in MSG, and played Kentucky at Rupp. Plus, the Heels are no jumpshot dependant, preferring to penetrate and take advantage of their quickness and the size of their deep frontline. I think Texas is a Final Four team, but I think UNC might be a little more ready at this juncture of the season.

Virginia Commonwealth -4 @ Tulane - I like VCU with ease, perhaps Vegas sees something in the Green Wave that The Maniac hasn't... Gimme the Rams to cover by double digits.

Temple +4.5 @ Georgetown - It is dangerous to pick all road teams with your picks, but I don't care. Seton Hall is this year's Providence; good in the early going with a great record built against inferior competition. Temple however has played as good a slate as anyone in the country and is sitting at 8-2. I think they not only cover, but get the win over Jeremy Hazell and the Pirates.

South Carolina -2 @ Wofford - Another road game, and I originally thought this line was a typo. It isn't. Jump on the Cocks ("ladies" said in my creepiest voice). Wofford is not terrible, but SC is in a whole different category in terms of offensive ability and athleticism.

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The Most Wonderful Time of the Year

I am an unabashed lover of the college hoops so-called "pre-season." It is one of the rare sports that grants us a true gauge of exactly where so many teams are in regards to their ability to compete on a national scale. Even better, this weekend also has tremendous impact on where teams will seed into the greatest three weeks in American sports.

If anyone questions the bountiful harvest and splendor of December hoops, I challenge you to sit down and watch a handful of tomorrow's dozen-plus standout games.

Here is a quick rundown of the highlights. The fearless Maniac picks (22-13-1 ATS) will follow in a separate column.

NOON:
Michigan @ Kansas - The Wolverines have to rank among the nation's most disappointing teams so far in 2009. A win in Kansas would completely erase that disappointment. But they aren't getting it. John Beilein's squad will at least give Kansas a athletically competitive game, something they haven't had since the opener against Memphis.

2:00 PM:
North Carolina @ Texas - A matchup of two of the nation's elite teams in an intimate gathering of 80,000 of your closest friends. Cowboys Stadium hosts its inaugural basketball game in a tune-up for Final Fours to come. Both teams today could be visiting a Final Four much sooner; as in this year. This game is a great litmus test for the Longhorns and a fourth BIGtime game for the becoming-battle-tested Heels. Regardless of the score, it is an interesting way to gear up for a hopeful appearance in Indy this April playing in such a cavernous shooters backdrop.

Xavier @ Butler - Two of the best Non-BCS teams square off for the second year in a row at 2pm. Butler won last year at the Cintas Center. This year Xavier tries to return the favor in historic Hinkle Fieldhouse. A win would be big for both schools; avoiding a fourth pre-conference loss might mean even more.

UCLA @ Notre Dame - Um, this one ain't exactly Digger and Coach Wooden. UCLA is mired in one of the worst starts in school history, and certainly the worst start in the Ben Howland tenure. Notre Dame is 9-2, but their losses are to Northwestern (understandable) and Loyola Marymount (not understandable); both at home. Luke Harangody aimed to take the Irish back to the tourney in his senior campaign and can afford to give away few more games. UCLA however might struggle to win 10 games all year.

Stanford @ Northwestern - The Maniac's affinity for NW is long documented. This matchup means a ton to both teams, but the Wildcats have less room for error with a daunting Big Ten slate about to heat up. Regardless of the outcome, something tells me the kids on each team will turn out just fine...

Mississippi State @ Houston - This one is a really intriguing match-up. The Bulldogs have been playing well of late and are rounding into the team most polls had ranked Top 20 preseason. Houston gets a chance to earn some much needed respect for C-USA in their home gym. A really really good game most people will miss.

4:00 PM:
Gonzaga @ Duke - Another fantastic match-up, and a real treat for us true college hoops fans. Both of these programs represent everything that is right about college athletics, Duke the GIANT with even bigger academic requirements still remaining the model of consistency, and Gonzaga the out-of-nowhere school in the middle of nowhere emerging as a perennial power.

Say what you will about Coach K and The Dukies, but they duck no one on their schedule, even programs that have far more to gain from the experience than they do. Last year on this same weekend, Duke played host to another non-power conference power Xavier. This year, they welcome the Zags. Matt Boldin and Co. are hoping for a more favorable result than the drubbing the Muskies left with.

Portland State @ Washington St. - OK, not a classic great matchup, but an intersting game for Ken Bone's Cougars. Portland State has a history of upsetting bigger-name west coast foes. Last year they clipped Gonzaga, this year they nailed Portland fresh off their first Top 25 ranking in 40 years. Wazzou needs to bring their A-game.

6:30 PM:
Richmond @ Florida - Both teams grabbed some headlines with big wins early, both have settled back a bit with a loss. Richmond gets a huge opportunity to build a tourney at-large resume and increase the growing profile for the Atlantic-10. Florida isn't in a no-win situation; a win over the Spiders may not be sexy on Sportcenter, but could very well constitute an RPI Top 50 win in March.

7:00 PM:
Temple @ Seton Hall - Speaking of the A-10, how about the work the Owls have done so far. They get another shot tomorrow night at unbeaten Seton Hall. The Pirates have yet to lose, but haven't played anywhere near the competition that Temple has. Of course they'll get their chance when conference play starts, but something tells me they won't quite yet be ready for what Temple is bringing tomorrow night.

Old Dominion @ Georgetown - ODU has played a brutal schedule so far, and has suffered some losses. THey entered as a trendy pick to win the CAA, but it looks more like VCU is the team to beat (or William & Mary). Meanwhile the Hoyas have looked fantastic as Greg Monroe has continued to develop and their guards have played steady basketball. The Hoyas didn't look past Butler, and I doubt they'll overlook the Monarchs either.

8:45 PM:
Kansas State @ Alabama - Frank Martin's Wildcats have been one of the pleasant surprises of the young 2009 season. They were expected to be good, but they have exceeded even those expectations en route to a 9-1 start. Alabama is thought to be a second tier SEC team, but ask Purdue about the fight they'll give you on their home court. This shapes up to be one of the best games on a LOADED Saturday slate.

Creighton @ New Mexico - If KSU is one of the season's more pleasant surprises, than perhaps Steve Alford's Lobos are THE most pleasant. New Mexico hosts a struggling Creighton squad that is used to getting accolades that are beginning to go New Mexico's way this year. It will be interesting to see how the Jays hold up in The Pit.

10:00 PM:
Portland @ Washington - Will the PAC-10 please beat someone this preseason? Suffice it to say if the 3rd or 4th best team in the WCC takes down the Pac-10 favorite in their own gym things will have reached new conference lows. Not that a Huskie loss is out of the question. The Pilots decimated UCLA and took down a good Minnesota team before heightened expectations seemed to take a toll on them. Now that the Pilots are back playing the role of David it will interesting to see how they handle U-Dub's Golliath.

Today is a great day to have four tv's or at least some serious PiP or TiVo! Enjoy - and check back for some fearless pics against the number.

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Bracketeering - November 30th, 2009

Bracketeering - November 30th, 2009

I love Feast Week. It provides a glimpse into who is what more than any other sport. Unlike on the gridiron where we wait until bowl season to find out who a gaggle of computer's googled into the top spot, we get ample opportunities to see who can play. And who cannot.

In this week's Bracketeering we have a lot of motion. Team's like Butler undid all the shedding of the "small school upstart" label with two losses and one "win" over UCLA at the buzzer. Tulsa seemed primed to take up the mantle of C-USA contender; then lost by 8 to Missouri State. Portland seemed destined to land on the Maniac's Rankings...until West Virginia changed their flight plan with a routine win in the 76 Classic championship over the Pilots.

Staying out West, Gonzaga moves very little in Bracketeering despite rocketing up the AP and USA Today polls; the reason? We already had 'em in the right spot.

Not that we got 'em all right. Or do now. But I'll take us over the polls that reward idle hands and big names more than tough losses and some scheduling gumption!

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FINAL FOUR:

1. Texas - They have slept walked through a few first halves, but have shown nothing to dissuade the Maniac into dropping them from the top perch. They have also been less tested than the rest of the Final Four; for now. They have an easy week, but face teams that will at least make them run in Long Beach State, and USC. At the end of the month it is game on with back-to-backers against North Carolina and Michigan State.

2. Syracuse - Nothing exceptionally noteworthy this week, the Orange earned this perch in MSG several weeks ago. They follow up their wins against Cornell and Columbia with a tough one with Colgate and Maine. Ah...now that's the Big East pre-con schedule we are used to! Next Thursday's (12/10) tilt with Florida is looking better and better every day.

3. Duke - Too slow? Too soft? How about too good. The Devils neutral court emasculation of UConn was impressive. It might be too soon to put them ahead of Kansas, Kentucky and Villanova, but to this point the Devils have done more.

4. Kansas - Each year there is a team I am slow to come around on. For some reason, that's Kansas this year. I know they are looking great, I know Collins has done a nice job involving the whole team, Alderich has looked great and Xavier Henry gives them the scoring punch from the 3. This team is built real similar to Duke 1992, with Henry playing the Grant Hill role. However, the only real game they played found them tangled with a yet-to-develop Memphis team. It will be another 3 weeks before we get to see the 'Hawks play a real game. Not sure how they are the near unanimous #1 in the polls when Syracuse, Duke and others have done so much more.

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Purdue - The gutty win over a very good Tennessee team speaks volumes about the character of this club. This team has one of the best, most cohesive and experienced Starting 5's in the country. Now the test for the grown-upversion of the Baby Boilers to find a few "babies" to round out the rotation.

6. Villanova - My take? This is about where the Cats peak. They have some nice close resume wins over solid competition, but the eye test makes them seem like they are in for a grueling, tough Big East slate. Syracuse, West Virginia and UConn are deeper and stronger. I think Georgetown, Cincy, Marquette will give them heck as well.

7. Kentucky - We've chronicled some of the Wildcats' early season struggles at length here, so let's just leave it at this: Play like they did against Miami (OH), Sam Houston State and Stanford and the Cats will lose two of their next three (UNC and @UConn).

8. West Virginia - They have played a few less games than most of the top teams, but their performance this week launches them up in Bracketeering. Yes, the wins are over Long Beach St, a solid and underrated Texas A&M, and Portland, but the way they won was impressive. This team shoots the ball well from the perimeter, passes it unselfishly and possesses the traditional Huggins' athleticism and pressure D. As Ebanks gets acclimated with the team, they will continue to get even better. Man the Big East is really loaded...again.

Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)

9. North Carolina - The Syracuse win really doesn't bother me. It is the fact they were tied with five minutes to go at home against Nevada that pushes them out of my Elite Eight. I still think once they figure out who is going to initiate the offense this is one of the five best teams in the country.

10. Tennessee - A one point loss to Purdue doesn't hurt their standings in my book. The lack of a PG does.

11. Gonzaga - Hard to believe the team that was underrated so long that they became overrated was unrated at the begining of the season. OK, that was a mouthful. Let's make it easy; with wins over Cincinnati, Wisconsin and a gutty 2-point loss in Chrysler Arena to MSU the Zags are really good. Will they stay this high in the polls? Unlikely. WIth December games that look like: Wake Forest, Davidson, @Duke, @Illinois, then a conference first three of: @Portland, @St. Mary's and @San Diego. Regardless of the outcome, that is a recipe for tourney-readiness.

12. UConn -Duke hammered them. They need a SF/SG who can create to be elite. However, don't let that fool you into thinking this team isn't very good..

13. Ohio State - Evan Turner is still #1 on my POY ballot, Ohio State is still a dangerous team who could win the Big Ten and make the short drive to Indy this April. Wednesday's Big Ten/ACC Challenge matchup vs. Florida State is a good opportunity to solidify their ranking.

14. Florida - I wasn't sure what to make of the nearly 20 point win over Florida State; then Florida State won three straight in the Old Spice Classic (including over a good Marquette team). Then they took down Michigan State on Friday and it is hard to over look the Gators at this point. Are they going to be a Sweet 16 team in March? I'm not quite sure of that. But I would be willing to wager they snap a two-year NIT streak this Spring. We are looking forward to next week's game against Syracuse.

15. Michigan State - I called them the most over-ranked team before the season's outset. Florida proved my right. I'd be stunned if the Gators are a Top Ten team this season. By the end of the year? Perhaps the Spartans will be; that is Izzo's traditional M.O. For now? It's hard to have them any higher than this. Of course, win tomorrow night against North Carolina and all is forgiven.

16. Up for grabs - I can't really put anyone a definitive step forward as each team listed has some great wins and a tough loss that makes them loom as a question mark (except for Georgetown who gets a "loss" from me for the 46-45 snoozer with Temple and the subsequent dodging). Cincinnati, Georgetown, Florida State, Marquette, Texas A&M, Washington (show me something this week @ Texas Tech, the 63-59'er over Montana goes in the "L" column in our book), Portland, Clemson, Miami(FL)

Closing In...
UNLV, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Memphis, Richmond, Oklahoma St,

Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on:
Rhode Island, Washington St. (6-0 with a 37-point win over San Diego yesterday), Xavier, Butler (tough losses, but still a Top-25 level team, Dayton, St. John's, Seton Hall, Northern Colorado, Northwestern, Baylor, Iowa State, New Mexico

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