Thriller in the Valley - Northern Iowa Returns the Favor

Last month it was Missouri State star Kyle Weems hitting the buzzer beater to give the Bears a one-point win at Northern Iowa.  Tonight, the Panthers returned the favor with two free throws with 5.2 seconds remaining to get the one-point win down in the Ozarks.

Weems nearly had his second game-winner.

Weems nearly served up an identical result when he hit a contested 18-foot baseline jumpshot to give the Bears the one-point lead with 18.2 on the clock.  However Northern Iowa's star Jake Koch, who had himself hit the go-ahead basket thirty seconds earlier, go a clean look from three.  The shot rimmed out, and Weems did a great job checking out a bigger man underneath, but it left 6'1'' Johnny Moran free to swoop in from the baseline corner to get a tip attempt.

Weems blocked the tip attempt, but committed the foul in the process.  Moran calmly stepped to the line and knocked home two clutch free throws that dramtically altered the future possibilities for the Panther's season.

Had Missouri State won the game, they would have moved to 10-1 in the MVC, three full games ahead of Northern Iowa.  Instead the Panthers pull even with Wichita State, with both now just one game behind Missouri State for the conference lead - and a near-certain NCAA at-large bid. 

In my projections the Valley is a two bid league, but without many marquee non-conference wins, it is very unlikely a three-bid league.  That makes tonight's dramatic win absolutely enormous for Northern Iowa and their chances to have once again conjure up some March Madness magic.  Fans in the Iowa plains are thrilled; Kansas Jayhawk fans perhaps not so much...

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Huge Showdown in the Valley - Northern Iowa Visits Missouri State

The following is an excerpt from a column The Maniac writes for TheSporksGeek.com -
Great game tomorrow night if your cable provider is carrying it!

Northern Iowa Panthers @ Missouri State Bears -7

You are forgiven if you don’t know much about the Missouri State Bears.  Most casual fans don’t.  Don’t let that lull you into ignoring one of the nation’s best mid-majors in 2011.  

The Bears enter at 17-4, 9-1 in the competitive Missouri Valley.  They got away with looking ahead in their last contest, escaping with a 73-70 win over Drake.  Don’t expect their focus to be anywhere other than on the Northern Iowa Panthers tomorrow night.

Northern Iowa captured the nation’s fancy with their improbable upset of #1 Kansas en route to the Sweet 16.  This team, however, is not that team; Ali Farokhamensh has gradated, and the Panthers have been good, but certainly not great this season without him.  They enter the game at 16-6 (7-3), but without some of the big wins they captured along the way last season.  

.... check out the rest at thesportsgeek.com

Down in the Valley - Top Teams Assert Their Dominance in the MVC

After streaking into national relevance in the mid 2000's, the Missouri Valley has slipped a bit, enduring a few down seasons in a row.  The biggest culprit?  Parity.  It wasn't that their top teams weren't good (as evidenced by Northern Iowa's magical slaying of #1 Kansas in last years tourney), it was that their middle of the pack wasn't bad.  The result?  A lot of teams between eight and eleven wins in league play and none of the separation needed for a mid major conference to earn multiple bids in March.

If the opening week of conference play is any indication, the Valley could once again be sending two, maybe three teams to the Big Dance as three of their top teams captured important wins.

The thriller of the night was the 58-57 that saw Missouri State stealing an important win at Northern Iowa on the strength of Kyle Weems game winning three-pointer at the buzzer.  Very few teams win on the Panthers home floor.  Grabbing the road win early bodes well for the Bears.  The win moved Missouri State to 9-3 and gave them their first real resume win.  All three of their losses are quality; Oklahoma State, Tulsa and Tennessee, but without a marquee win out of conference the Bears likely need to be 14-4 or better in Valley play to get in the at large discussion.

Northern Iowa on the other hand is in a more unique position.  Their is undoubtably some unintentional lingering name value after last year's surprising Sweet Sixteen run.  It isn't supposed to matter, but a positive perception regarding a program never hurts.  Their resume is very similar to Mo State's, with a worse loss (51-39 to Iowa) and two better wins (Indiana and New Mexico).  The Panthers also likely need to get to that 13-14 win range to have much of a chance of entertaining tourney aspirations.

Two other Valley contests were far less enthralling, but equally important opening statements.  Conference favorite Wichita State traveled to Evansville, who owns a win over Butler, and simply steamrolled the Purple Aces.  The Shockers cruised to the 91-57 win with all five starters scoring in double figures.  The win moves Wichita State to 10-2 with wins over Tulsa, Virginia and LSU and quality losses to a pair of top 10 squads, UConn on a neutral floor and a narrow loss at San Diego State.  The Shockers are the most legitimate at-large contender in the MVC, but if they play like they did tonight winning the auto bid in the conference tourney might make the point moot.  13 or 14 conference wins would seem to put the Shockers on solid ground.

The final big game saw another league favorite grab an important road win, with Creighton defeating Illinois State 67-54.  The Bluejays had some early season struggles, losing in all four attempts to earn a quality win.  The Northwestern and BYU losses do no real harm.  The losses to Nebraska and Iowa State make it tough to argue for Creighton over some middle of the pack Big 12 team as they lost to several of the worst teams in the league.  If the committee sees them on the board next to, say Oklahoma State or Texas A&M it's going to be hard to see the scales tipping in Creighton's favor.  Just like Mo State and Northern Iowa, the Jays are going to have to separate themselves from the MVC pack to merit any consideration.  In order to do that, you have to beat quality opponents on the road.  Tonight's comfortable win in Normal is a good start.

It is going to be an exciting year once again in the Valley, and with a little separation at the top could once again be sending multiple teams in March.

Middling Majors

It hurts me greatly  to write it, and it saddens me to think it, but it must be said.

The "year of the mid-major" is dead.  It has been a long time since the college hoops landscape was as devoid of legitimate Final Four contenders outside the BCS leagues as it appears this season.  Even the "don't call us MID" major crowd has taken seismic steps backwards.

The Butler Bulldogs played Hickory Huskers for the nation Hoosier's dreams to within a soft bounce of a national championship last April.  Six scant months later the Bulldogs are closer to needing to win the Horizon league to make the tourney than they are to playing in any Final Fours.  They opened the season getting pummeled by a less-than-great Louisville squad.  Pitino might coach them up satisfactorily in this season of insane parity, but my earliest instincts tell me the Cards are headed for the NIT.   Today, Butler lost at home.  To MVC bottom tier Evansville.  Prior to heading to Hinkle, the Purple Aces suffered consecutive double-digit losses to Indiana and Middle Tennessee State.  Ouch.

The road doesn't get easier for Butler anytime soon.  Before seeking refuge in Horizon league play, Brad Stevens' Bulldogs still have to travel to Duke and Xavier.  At this point, even home games with Stanford and Utah seem less than automatic.

Speaking of Xavier, the Muskies entered the season joining Michigan State as the only schools in the country who have made the past three Sweet Sixteens.  Early indications are the Muskies won't be making it four. The season began with a dramatic comeback win over Western Michigan and an overtime tussle with the Mastadons of IPFW.  Xavier finished the Cancun Classic with two wins (over Iowa and Seton Hall, two bottom tier BCS'ers) before getting handled with relative ease by Old Dominion.

Granted ODU has the talent to return the the tourney for the second straight year, but the lopsided loss was just another example of how much early entries (Derrick Brown and Jordan Crawford) have finally caught up with their program.  With the possible exception of Gonzaga, no other mid-major is faced with the common legitimate possibility of losing players early to the professional ranks.  For Xavier, the defection of Crawford left a gaping offensive void they have yet to figure out how to replenish.  Junior point guard Tu Holloway has played as well as any lead guard in the country other than Kemba Walker, but someone else is going to have to help shoulder the load if the Muskies have any chance of being a solid tourney team.

If Butler's schedule is daunting, then Xavier's is murderous.  In addition to hosting Butler, the Muskies play Wofford, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Florida and Cincinnati before taking on a solid A-10 schedule featuring Temple, Dayton, Richmond and Rhode Island.

If 2006 was the mid-major high water mark, with at large bids flooding in from the Missouri Valley, C-USA, Colonial and others, 2010 might the drought.  Despite a clearly level landscape outside of 8-10 teams this year, very few of the mid-majors have been able to stack those early season chips that are so vital come selection Sunday.

Here's a quick breakdown of some of the hopefuls and their early season returns through Thanksgiving.

Conference USA

Memphis - Perhaps the only lock on the list. Right now the Tigers are 5-0 with wins over Miami and LSU.  They still get cracks at Tennessee, Georgetown and Kansas this year to notch another "good win" to add to their profile.  After last year's rare anomaly the Tigers are once again clearly the class of the league.
Tourney Outlook:  Near Lock


Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are as good as they have been in a long time, starting 3-0 with wins over South Florida and South Alabama.  The problem might be their strength of schedule.  With only games at Mississippi and Cal to boost their profile they better get at least one of two versus Memphis in addition to avoiding more than one or two bad losses

Tourney Outlook:  Possible

UCF - Don't look now, but the Knights are off to a 5-0 start after beating instate foe South Florida last week.  With games against Florida, Miami, and UMass the Knights get several shots at some good wins.  Same as above with Southern Miss, only even more important, the Knights really need to get one against Memphis to get a second galnce.

At-large Outlook:  Highly Unlikely

Others to Watch:  UAB, Houston, UTEP, Tulsa

Metro Atlantic:

Siena - The Saints have been March darlings the past few seasons.  To recapture the magic they will likely need to win their league tourney this year.  At 2-3, with losses to Vermont (ouch), Butler and Minnesota, the Saints already fanned on their best chances at capturing a profile win.

At-large Outlook: Highly Unlikely

Others to Watch:  None


Colonial:

VCU - Shaka Smart's team is in decent position to earn an at-large bid if they can handle their business inside league play.  At 4-1 with wins over Wake Forest and UCLA and a competitive loss to Tennessee their early profile is solid.  They have interesting separation games with Wofford and UAB on their schedule before entering league play.  This is a good ball club who should win 21-23 games, and earn a bid.
At-Large Outlook:  Good

Old Dominion - The Monarchs won their tournament over in Cancun, albeit over a field that sounded better than it is.  The wins over Clemson and Xavier should prove valuable chips, and the narrow home-loss to Georgetown might actually help more than it hurts.  They get three more good chances; Richmond, Dayton and Missouri will add some strength to the Monarchs' schedule.  Grab two of those three and it's hard not to see ODU going back to the Dance.
At-Large Outlook:  Good

Others to Watch:  George Mason, James Madison,

MAC:  Long gone are the conferences glory days, Miami (OH) and Kent State crashing the Sweet 16 and the MAC meriting the occassional at-large bid.  Their aren't many challengers this year either, though Kent State at 6-1 with games upcoming Florida, USF, James Madison and UAB they could play their way into the discussion if they can take all four (especially the Florida game).
At-Large Outlook:  Doubtful

Others to Watch:  None

Missouri Valley:  Remember in 2006 when the MVC sent four teams to the dance?  Yeah, so does the Valley.  They remember it with a wistful smile and a distant gaze... those days seem pretty far away.  Granted Northern Iowa captured the nation's fancy after their stunning upset over Kansas, but with perennial dancer Creighton slumping and Wichita State being left on the the chopping block it was yet another one-bid year for the MVC.

Prospects look a little brighter this year, but no one is a clear lock.

Creighton:  We'll find out soon.  The three-point loss to Iowa State might up being worse than they thought and their four wins are pretty pedestrian.  They need to sweep their upcoming contests with Northwestern, Nebraska, BYU and St. Joseph's to merit any consideration.
At-Large Outlook:  Murky

Wichita State:  Their 3-point loss to UConn might wind up being more valuable than some of their wins when the selection committee starts weighing resumes.  They get shots at Tulsa, LSU and a tough trip to San Diego State to prove their mettle.  Their schedule won't do them a ton of favors, but winning those aforementioned games will at least get them in the discussion paired with a good conference record.
At-Large Outlook:  Decent

Others to Watch:  Northern Iowa, Missouri State

Mountain West:  This is easily the best non-BCS conference in the country.  One could make a pretty compelling argument that the MWC is stronger than the Pac-10 this season.  San Diego State is a near lock for the tourney, and I'd be very surprised if UNLV and BYU don't dance as well. New Mexico's eyebrow-raising 25 point loss to Cal (who subsequently lost to Notre Dame in a game they scored FIVE points in a half) drops them from the "likely" pile and into "others to watch"

At-Large Outlooks:  SDSU - near lock;  UNLV - very solid;  BYU - very good
Others to Watch:  Utah, New Mexico

Atlantic-10:  The mid-major darling de jour might take a small step back this year.  Xavier shows real signs of offensive struggles.  Combined with a daunting schedule and the Muskies might be sweating Selection Sunday for the first time in five years.  Dayton and Temple have the talent to make it out of the first week of the tourney, but haven't put it on full display quite yet.  Richmond and Rhode Island look to build on last season's progress while St. Joes and UMass look to restore former glory.

All in all, this is a good, competitive league that should get at least 3 bids in March, however who those three bids go to will be quite a scramble.  We'll do a complete A-10 Breakdown in a separate article.


This is shaping up early as a year in which a TON of bids will be up for the taking.  Doing a quick rundown of the Big 6 conferences, I count only thirteen LOCKS, with most of leagues being a complete mess from second or third all the way down to ninth or tenth.  That means there are some bids for the grabbing.

It remains to be seen if the little guys hands will be quicker than the giants.

Paging Keno Davis

Two years ago Drake basketball was on top of the world.  Or at least the top of the Missouri Valley.  The Bulldogs went 15-3 in what has long been considered one of the best mid-major conferences in the nation, earning the school's first Big Dance ticket in more than 35 years.

Things were looking great.

Keno is in Providence now, but will still have something in common with his former employer.  Neither has a shot in the world of making the tourney this season.  Drake suffered one of their worst defeats in school history last night to a very mediocre Iowa State club, 91-43.  Ouch.  It is looking like a long season for the Bulldogs in a pretty tough MVC.

It could be a long season in the MVC for the 'Dogs.

Three Against the Wall

We are starting to get to the time of the season where we truly have enormous games, games where the losers back themselves into a corner where they pretty much have to win their conference tourney in order to make the Dance.  Three games on tonight's slate jump out to me.

In the Colonial, two teams that looked like at-large candidates two months ago find themselves at a crossroad.  William & Mary, admittedly the Maniac's darling team this season, knocked off Wake and Maryland on the road (something, coincidentally NO ACC team has done this season) and looked to be well poised to capture an at-large bid if necessary.  Old Dominion, along with VCU, captured enough momentum and quality wins pre-conference that it looked likely that at least one of them would make the field as well, possibly even making the CAA a three-bid league for the first time since the historic 2006 season.

Then conference play began, and things got a little messy.  ODU has fared well, sitting at 9-2 in league.  However, they still trail George Mason and Northeastern (both of whom did not fare well pre-conference).  William & Mary is in even a tougher spot, as they sit 7-4, tied for fifth place in the league with VCU (and behind Drexel).  The loser of tonight's contest, especially if it is W&M, will be forced to win the league tourney to get in.  The game is tonight at 7pm at Old Dominion.

Another mid-major do-or-die game features a team long so successful it feels odd to classify them as a mid-major.  Memphis is on the outside looking in as of today and is going to need to stack up some quality wins in a hurry to make the field.  They get their first chance tonight at 8pm when conference leading UAB visits the Pyramid.  Gonzaga follows them into town on Saturday. After Memphis's surprising 70-60 loss to SMU, it is fair to say they need to win both to have a good chance to capture an at-large bid.  Conference USA gets real interesting if Memphis wins tonight, as UTEP and Tulsa have both only dropped one conference game as well.  There is no way C-USA gets four bids.  I think three might be a stretch too.  Tonight is a must for Memphis.

A final mid-major delight features the two best teams in the always competitive Missouri Valley.  Wichita State was able to do something only one other team this season has last month; knock off Northern Iowa.  Tonight the Panthers get their chance to even the score when the Shockers come to the McLeod Center (8:05 EST).  For Northern Iowa, even a loss tonight, provided they suffer no other setbacks, will not prevent them from getting in the tourney.  A loss for Wichita State might.  They suffered only only one non-conference loss (to Pitt), but they have next to no quality wins to speak of either.  Their best win is Texas Tech.  After that it's just Iowa, Cleveland State...and it gets worse from there.  I am not sure the Valley is strong enough to earn an at-large bid for a team with four conference losses, which is what the Shockers will be if they drop tonight's game.  It is a must win for Wichita State.

Three games to watch, though they might be hard to watch (unless you have Dish or Direct TV).  Enjoy 'em if you can.

Maniac's Picks:

William & Mary +12

UAB +7.5

Wichita State +6

(I like all three with the points, but think only Memphis gets the must-win they need)

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More Fun in the Valley

While most of college basketball is waiting a few days to get rolling in 2010, the Missouri Valley continues steaming ahead. The conference is not quite at the level of the glory year 0f 2006, but does have a great chance to improve on the 1-bid performance of last season.

Here's a quick rundown of tonight's games, and the first week of games past.

What's going on in Omaha? Creighton fell to 0-2 today in conference after losing to lightly-regarded Indiana State. All the big conference guys who got a "quality win" early over the Jays might be disappointed to find that it no longer qualifies as "quality." The Jays have played themselves into auto-bid only territory after their terrible start.

Southern Illinois squares off tonight with Bradley. The Salukis rose to national prominence several years ago reaching the Sweet 16 and being ranked most of the season, but they have fallen off a bit in past years. This season the Salukis are 8-2 and looking to rise into contention in the Valley. Meanwhile Bradley sits at 6-5, but does own a win over Illinois and several "good losses" to BYU and Oklahoma State. The Braves are not legit contenders in the Valley, but tonight might give a nice glimpse as to whether or not the Salukis might be.

Northern Iowa and Wichita State both figure to be factors in the MVC race all season; both have should-win home games tonight against Evansville and Drake respectively. Both teams have good records (11-1, 10-2) but neither has gaudy enough non-conference resumes to think they are dancing without 12-13 MVC wins. In short, every game counts for them both.

The game of the night is at 8:05 EST when 10-2 Illinois State travels to 11-1 Missouri State. Illinois State is fresh of a 15 point win over Wichita, while MoSU easily handled Evansville on the road. Illinois State raced off to an undefeated start last year, only to cool off quickly in conference play, just as national attention began to find them. The Redbirds finished with a disappointing first round NIT loss. This season, the Redbirds and MVC P.O.Y. candidate Osiris Eldridge know they have to win games like tonight if they want to get to the real dance this March.

Missouri State, with wins over Auburn and Tulsa was flirting with Top 25 status before a 66-62 loss to Arkansas cooled that notion. Still the Bears have a solid ballclub and have to be considered a Top 3 team in the underrated Valley. Tonight's game will give a nice look at two potentially tourney-bound teams.


SEASON OUTLOOK: Look for Wichita, No. Iowa and Mo State to battle for the league crown with some pressure from Illinois State and Southern Illinois, and I am always reluctant to bury Creighton, no matter how much it looks like we need to. Ultimately, it might once again be parity that costs the Valley multiple tourney bids, but I like the league to snag two spots in the NCAA and another two in the NIT.

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Death of the Mid-Major

It is sad to write, but I think a proper eulogy needs to at least be prepared in advance. This March, it might be time to bury our good friend, the Mid-Major.

Cinderella will still have plenty of feet begging for slippers, as the nation's 31 conferences collect their automatic bids. However, they will likely have no company from any fellow conference mates, barring five large upsets in very specific conference tournaments. (the A-10, Horizon, Southern, C-USA and WCC).

For the past decade, momentum has been gathering for the rise of mid-majors, both in births in the tourney and in results. Many theories were bandied about; some seemed legitmatly reasonable. Some experts cited the decrease in scholarship allowances. This prevented teams from stockpiling dozens of blue-chippers on the bench while everyone else had to feed on the leftovers. In theory, this created a larger balanced landscape.

But apparently not this year.

Another theory was the influx of early entrants to the NBA draft. Smaller programs with good, but not one-and-done good players would develop junior and senior laden squads that could go deep in the tourney and wreck havoc.

You know, senior laden teams, like Syracuse 2003, Florida 2006, Ohio State 2007...

Next theory.

The most popular theory was the proliferation of television coverage granting exposure to "non-major" programs. With the multitude of games being broadcast, you no longer had to play at a "Top 20" program to be blasted across the nation's airwaves. This is, again, true in theory, but perhaps herein lies the true reason why thing have instead become so unbalanced in 2009.

This weekend there were roughly 20 games broadcast nationally. Depending upon where you live, you might have had a different selection of games from your FOX Sports carrier, but likely it was Pac-10 or ACC. On ESPN everything is BIG. Like BIG Monday, SUPER Tuesday, etc. "Big" as in Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, Big budget and Big BCS conferences.

There are a ton more games on TV overall, I agree. As a matter of fact, I am surprised when I cannot get a Big 6 conference game of any remote importance on regular cable. Nearly every game that means anything is on. If you wanted to catch Davidson v. Charleston last month? Might I suggest ESPN360. You don't get that? (you are in 90% majority) Bummer.

Outside the Big 6 conferences?? Well, unless your name is Gonzaga or Memphis (or the team offered up to them) your One Shining Moment in the sun will have to wait.

Not that I blame networks one bit. The dial is going to spike for UConn/LVille tonight. I don't think many of you would be DVRing George Mason versus Northeastern. (Maybe you would, you read my drivel, so are obviously a hoops nerd like me - so "you" specifically...bad example. You get the point though...)

It is the same reason the Yankees are on 29 times a year, and the Brewers are invisible. It's just the way it is. That doesn't make anyone wrong. It is just a simple fact.

Another fact is that this year's tourney will likely be devoid of Mid-Majors more than any in recent memory. Long gone is the memory of 2006, when the MVC sent four and the Colonial sent two (as did the A-10, C-USA and Mountain West). It is unlikely this year that any of those conferences other than the A-10 and Mountain West will see multiple bids in 2009. Instead the Big East is tracking for 9, The ACC 7, Big Ten and Big 12 looking like a minimum of 6 each...

The biggest sufferers from the lack of attention are the leagues that are really good, and suffer from, gasp, parity. The same "parity" that was used to hail the rise of the mid-major is the same thing that will cost them 4-5 bids in March.

For example, you will not find a more competitve quality league in the country than the Mountain West. UNLV, BYU, Utah, New Mexico, TCU, San Diego State and Wyoming. None of those seven would embarass themselves in the Big Dance. However, for that same reason you have six team between two and three losses at the top of the league. None of them will get the gaudy 24 or 25 wins you need to perk up voters eyes. UNLV, BYU and Utah have te best shot to dance, as they played slightly stronger schedules and have bigger names. Still, despite wins over Lousiville, Gonzaga and a close loss to Wake Forest, one of those three, along with their remaining conference mates will likely have to aspire to NIT glory.

Ditto for the Missouri Valley. These teams are slugging it out, playing close games and beating each other up every night. Just like in the Big East. Unfortunatly for them, the leader of this slugfest struggled in the pre-conference schedule (N. Iowa). Therefore, the conference is "down." Drake, Creighton, Evansville, Bradley and Northern Iowa will be slugging it out is the conference tourney; likely the winner takes all. The loser? Yup. kNITting it is...

Expect one bid for the MVC.

Perhaps the most interesting of all is the Colonial Conference. Northeastern sits atop the pile, with George Mason and VCU clipping at their heels, one and two losses back respectivly. All three have RPI's between 50-60. Good, but not great. Then again, tough to boost a sagging RPI when no BCS school in their right mind is going to schedule a home and home with you. George Mason missed their chance for a resume win, falling by four at Dayton. VCU got , but missed chances against Rhode Island and Oklahoma. Conference leader Northeastern severly damaged the other two's hopes by getting beaten savagly by Memphis and Michigan and scoring just 37 points in a loss to Big East doormat South Florida.

Not a real compelling case for multiple bids, and a real tough decision for the committee. For the record, George Mason was an at-large qualifier in 2006 after losing the conference championship game to UNC Wilmington.

My take? Only one will dance. Same for an improved, but still clearly inferior C-USA as well.

Again, it is not "good" or "bad" ostensbily. It just makes fo a little less shine and luster on the grandest event in Amrican sports (yes, I know the Super Bowl was yesterday,) the NCAA tournament.

Who is this year's George Mason? Maybe no one...

The best thing about the tourney is that once you are in, anyone can be the Cinderalla.

Once you're in.

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Wake Up Calls: Making Sense of a Wacky Wednesday

The headlines will all be clamoring about the "huge upset" of #1 Wake Forest. Don't let that fool you. Yes, Wake has been playing great ball, but by no means was this the construct of a team built to run the table. When Carolina fell at BC, Indiana's 32-year stranglehold on perfection remained safe.

If nothing else, last night's Virginia Tech victory told us two things; One, the ACC is good. Expect 6 or 7 teams to dance. Virginia Tech is in that mix, and last night's win helped advance that cause. Their record isn't stellar, but look at some of their losses (an OT loss to Xavier in Puerto Rico on a 50-foot buzzer beater). Two, parity is king this season. Last year all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four for the first time. Don't expect a repeat this season.

Relax Dino, It's Gonna be that kinda year...

Case in point; Arkansas defeated two Top Ten Big 12 frontrunners. The Hogs are now 0-3 in a "down" SEC. Boston College slayed UNC in shocking fashion. They then turned around and lost to Harvard. BC is at best a long shot to make the field of 65.

It is going to be a roller coaster ride to the finish, but as Dickie V so incessantly reminds us. "at least we find out the champion on the court."

Amen Dickie.

Wednesday Recap:

Clemson's pasting in Chapel Hill told the nation what Tiger fans were hoping to suppress; "here we go again." The Tigers were ranked as high as ninth, deservedly so, but after their past two less-than-impressive performances against the conference big boys their reputation takes a huge ding. Not only that, but if they suffer a few losses to the likes of Va Tech, NC State, Miami and FSU, "bubble" talk might be appropriate in Clemson.

How in the hell did Florida lose that game?? If you haven't seen it yet, check out the youtube clip. For South Carolina, it keeps their tourney hopes buoyant, as the SEC West looks dreadful, it is not impossible to sneak in four from the east...


The Mountain West is the best of the non-BCS conferences, however their balanced parity is going to cost them bids in March. UNLV pulled off a road win at BYU last night. Both of them appear to be in decent shape to dance, despite being unranked, but New Mexico, Utah and TCU will all provide tough competition to the end. The beatings they are giving each other could drive them all down to around 9-10 conference wins. That would necessitate winning the confernce tournament to enjoy a stress-free Selction Sunday. For the rest, that is an NIT equation.

Arizona is screwed. Last night's come-from-ahead loss to instate rival Arizona State dropped the Cats to 2-5 in Pac 1o play and a long way from the bubble. The rebuilding has officially begun, only it doesn't really seem as if "rebuilding" is the proper term. "Chaos" seems more apropos. I bet Brandon Jennings is ecstatic he (couldn't get admitted) chose to play overseas... I feel badly for Chase Buddinger. He is playing really well in what appears to be a historically poor season in Tuscon when he easily could have left for the NBA last season.

The A-10 might be Xavier and the dozen dwarfs, but the games are crazy exciting. Two more went to overtime last night, with Duquesne dropping a nail-biter to St. Joes 99-98, and Charlotte nipping UMass in OT. Add in Rhode Island losing by three at Richmond and you have one heck of a balanced league. And of course, just one NCAA bid.

The SEC West is winnable at 9-7. LSU pasted 3-0 Mississippi State last night. Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss are all over the place, and who knows what to make of Arkansas. In a year of parity, their is no better example of the grab-bag between #20 and #50 in the country than in the SEC West.

The MVC has a lot of good teams. However they appear to lack a great one. I wonder if the balance in the Big 10, ACC and depth in the Big East will leave two or three sitting on the sidelines in March. Illinois State, Creighton and Evansville appeared to be the strongest early on (with some consideration for Drake as well), however Northern Iowa has stormed out to a 7-1 conference record and a two-game lead on the field. The problem? They had five losses before entering conference play. Only Marquette was ranked (the others, Iowa,Iowa St, Illinois-Chicago and Wyoming). Not exactly the way to get multiple bids for a non BCS league. The MVC's conference tournament will not only be great basketball, but very meaningful hoops as well.

And how about the Northwestern Wildcats? They rewarded the Maniac's proclamation that the Minnesota loss to Northwestern was not a "bad loss" but rather a "good win" for a good Northwestern team with a road victory over conference-unbeaten Michigan State. With their next two contests against Michigan and Indiana, it is not ridiculous to think Northwestern could put themselves squarely in NCAA Tourney conversation. If you are scoring at home the Wildcats now have wins over Florida State, Minnesota and Michigan State, three teams likely dancing in March.

And as much as we have had some bumps and bruises since it first appeared likely... the dream of the February 11th #1 vs. #2 Duke - Carolina shootout still seems possible.

So much for parity...

For the Birds: Illinois State Hammers Creighton in "Show-Me" Game

It is now official. Illinois State is for real and here to stay, so get to know the Redbirds. There is a good chance you'll be writing their name once, twice...thrice in your brackets come March.

In consecutive games to open the MVC, the Redbirds validated their somewhat soft 11-0 non conference record by thrashing Evansville 80-50 and following it up with a sound 86-64 victory over conference kingpin Creighton.

Ten Sure-Fire Predictions for 2009: A look into the college hoops crystal ball

Everyone makes New Year's resolutions. How passe' and cliche' and a bunch of other French words the Maniac can't spell without the aide of spellchecker. Around here, we don't resolve to do anything differently in 2009. Just more of the same kickbutt comprehensive coverage and fearless predictions.

First, a HUGE "Thank you" to our loyal readers - it looks like an amazing 2009 season on the horizon. But...for those of you who can't wait for it to unfold, let me give you a glimpse into the hardwood future...

1. North Carolina will get a few stern tests this year... but the first one is not from Wake Forest on Jan 11th. It is going to be another twenty-plus'er, don't let the folks at ESPN get you all geeked for that game, unless you just want to see what could be the first truly transcendent team since Tark and LJ's 1990-91 UNLV team. UNC's tests will come from the likely suspects; The ACC tourney, at Duke on February 11th. If they enter that game undefeated and emerge the same way, don't expect them to even be tested until the season finale at home versus...Duke. Oh, by the way, that's Tyler Hansbrough's grand finale at Chapel Hill. Unless he has an anuerism during pregame chest bumping, I don' see Psycho T going out a loser on his home floor, do you?

The Maniac's Take? I really think they are going to run the table. I wanted to take the safe route, "someone will get them, it's too hard...blah blah blah..."

They truly are that good with NO discernible weakness. They are not jump shot dependent. Shots going astray? Pound it inside to their stable of bigs. The other team gets hot from the perimeter? UNC amps up the pressure, creates turnovers and gets easy buckets. They score more quickly and easily than any team that can also defend I have seen since, well, UNLV.

So, it's on the record. UNC runs the table. (I write while chomping on a rolled up towel...)

(But if they were going to slip up, aside from the obvious ACC Tourney, Final 4, etc. don't overlook a Jan 28th visit to Florida State. The Noles suck, but seem to always have the Heels number at home).

Seriously, those guys are freakin' good.

2. While other big-name conferences are crying over teams left out, the Missouri Valley sneaks three teams into the Big Dance. My picks? Creighton, Illinois St. and Evansville (though I like Drake as well...)

3. The A-10 gets just one. Dayton is a good ballclub, but I don't trust them just yet. St. Joes has been abysmal, ditto for UMass and Temple. Rhode Island has an outside shot but would need 12-13 wins in conference to get there. Xavier should be a lock, despite recent stumbles. Let's just say there are a lot of power conferences that will be rooting for the Muskies to win the A-10 tourney this year.

4. Somehow, someway, the SEC will earn 5 bids. It won't be pretty. But somehow four teams besides Tennessee are going to scrape their way into 7-12 seeds. I think Kentucky will surprise and emerge as the second best team in the SEC (Jodie Meeks is the best off-guard in the country, but I will listen to arguments for Hardin and AJ Abrams (who is 5'10''... so really not an "off" guard, yet I digress)

From there, you are left with Arkansas (I don't want to overvalue the Oklahoma game, but at, say, 9-7 in conference, that win tips the pendulum in their favor), LSU, Florida, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Alabama and Auburn are awful; I don't care what their records are. Ditto for Georgia and Mississippi St. I liked Ole Miss before Chris Warren got hurt, so they are out too.

When push comes to shove, gimme Arkansas, UF and LSU, with Vandy just missing.

Who's been better in 2008-2009 so far??

5. Davidson will get screwed on their seeding, despite posting a 16-0 SoCon record and going 27-3 overall, They still will not be a top 4 seed. Their three losses will all be Top 4 seeds; Oklahoma, Duke, and Purdue. Yet Davidson will end up a 5 or 6. We love Steph, but that Purdue beating left a residue with the committee. Write it down.

6. But we DO really love Steph. He will narrowly edge Tyler Hansbrough for National Player of the Year. From there, Blake Griffin, Ty Lawson and Jodie Meeks round out my ballot.

7. The Boeheim (or "bubble" for March Maniacs neophytes) will include two preseason Top 10 teams. Gonzaga and Louisville will sweat it out on Selection Sunday, but both do get in and immediately become the 7-10 seed NO ONE wants to see in the second round. Matter of fact, UConn prays Gonzaga doesn't fall into their bracket...

8. The Mountain West is the best conference no one in the country gives a care about. They have six teams who could make a legit run at the tourney. UNLV and BYU are locks. New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah and Air Force wouldn't be stunners to be included, and TCU and Wyoming don't suck. That leaves only Colorado State...who does suck. But so do Georgia, South Florida, St. Johns, Oregon State, Indiana, Iowa State... if you get my point.

That said? Only two end up dancing. The top two win too many games and the middle cannibalizes each other, similar to the A-10 last year (In February, people were talking five bids...by the time it was all said and done? Just two.)

9. The biggest "snubs" on selection Sunday? Here are my six or seven who make the most waves: Vanderbilt, Drake, Villanova, Miami (FL), Maryland, Michigan (I know...again), and the loser of VCU/George Mason. The one who takes the hose but no one cries? VMI, who gets edged out by Seth Curry and the Liberty Flames in a great game about a week before "Championship Week" starts...

10. Someone way dumber than you or me will kick your can in your tourney office pool. Knowledge is power! However, when it comes to sports, nothing is concrete or absolute. If it were, we wouldn't watch...and you wouldn't be reading. So relax and enjoy the ride. It is a game of bounces and emotion, of momentum and minute inches; the difference between winning and losing often just a few whistles, a box out, a free throw (sorry Memphis fans...)

It really is a beautiful thing...

Almost as beautiful as those pretty uniforms on the 13 seed the hot chick in the cubicle caddy-corner from you correctly pegged in the Sweet 16 sending you to certain defeat...

Enjoy the ride, and have a great New Year!
~ The Maniac.

Recognize the Redbirds!

13-0.

A new record for victories at the start of the season for Illinois State. More importantly, their 30 point win over Evansville last night served notice their is a new force to be reckoned with in the MVC.

The past three years have seen a burgeoning popularity and acclaim for the conference, comprised of smaller, midwestern schools that don't field D1 football teams (or FBS, or FCS or DUH, whatever acronym they are using now). Creighton has become pretty recognizable with their recent half decade of success. Drake became national darlings for a few weeks last year, and could have been longer had it not been for a Western Kentucky tourney buzzer beater. Wichita St. made it acceptable for fans to talk about "the Shockers" without evoking bad images of Dane Cook during their 2006 tourney run. Heck, we even know Indiana State thanks to Larry Legend.

But Illinois State?? Never heard of them.

Well, get to know the Redbirds, because they could be the next MVC team to wreck havoc come March.

In some ways, they are your typical MVC upstart; they have balanced scoring, four players hoisting more than four 3-pt attemps a night, a total of 22 per game as a team...and no one is on NBA scouts current radar. No one in their rotation stands taller than 6'8'', their three guards are under 6'3''.

Now let me give you some facts to remember come March. They are shooting nearly 40% as a team from distance, and aren't adraid to chuck it up. Who springs upsets? Teams that get hot from the perimeter. Who else? Teams that are smart, patient with veteran, poised guards. The Redbirds start 3 seinors and two juniors. Their three leading scorers are all guards, so no true point of attack to deny with ball pressure. No one to focus on when you have to have a big stop.

In short, a solid, well-rounded ballclub with the kind of grit that makes MVC teams a tough out in March. 13-0 and counting. Next up? A terrific ballgame with Creighton Saturday night.