Updating Your Portfolio - Pt 1

Just three weeks remain in the regular season, including conference tournaments and the 34 at large teams are starting to come a little more in focus.

Here is a stock report on the AP Top 25 poll:

#1 UConn - Hold. It remains to be seen how dire the impact of Dyson is to the Huskies. The Pitt loss was simply that; a loss to a very good Pitt team in a very hyped TV contest. Most of the nation wasn't tuning in when Villanova handled the Pathers easily a few weeks ago, ergo no "the sky is falling" talk had to be endured. Both Pitt and UConn are "Holds" as they are clearly two of the five best teams in the country.

#2 Oklahoma -BUY. This team is peaking and growing at the right time. Blake Griffin is the National POY, but the Sooners have more than that going for them. Wille Warren is the most complete freshman in the country right now and runs the team superbly. Austin Johnson has been filling it up and Taylor Griffin is a solid role player. They have flown pretty under the radar for a team that is about to become the #1 team in the nation on Monday, but make no mistake, the Sooners are legit.

#3 North Carolina - BUY. Still the best team in the country when they come to play. If you are scoring at home, they have done just that for 10 straight games now in the nation's deepest and most balanced conference.

#4 Pitt - HOLD. See above. Tons of talent, tons of toughness, but also tons of other years we have written the exact same thing about Pitt. Not knocking this team, it's just...show me in March...

#5 Memphis - SELL. Nothing like an abysmal schedule to shine over a few weaknesses. Yes, you still have to win the games on your schedule, but I am not buying that a Memphis team that was unranked four weeks ago is suddenly the 5th best team in the nation after fatteneing up on the C-USA. The Gonzaga win was an impressive one, but again, still not sure this is the 5th best team in the country.

#6 Michigan State - HOLD. Purdue handed them their can last night, and exposed some of the Spartans shooting weaknesses. That said, they have depth, quickness and toughness...and Coach Izzo. I liked them a little more in the underdog role, but still think this team could make some noise in March.

#7 Louisville - BUY. The Cards might have had the strangest week in the country; losing by 35 to Notre Dame, then winning by 40+ over DePaul. Let's erase that ND game, or at least file it as evidence that the Cards are capable of lapses. Then again, with the exception of Oklahoma, everyone else has proven the same thing this season. At the end of the day, gimme the talent, athleticism and Pitino in March.

#8. Wake Forest - SELL. Has anyone else noticed the Deacons are only 6-4 in conference? Their lone non-conference wins of note are BYU and Baylor. This is a good ball club, not a great one. I think getting much further than the first weekend is a stretch for this year's squad (though easily Top 5 pre-season 2010 if everyone stays.)

#9. Duke - BUY. While everyone else is selling the Blue Devils like crazy, the Maniac continues to hold. The Clemson loss was disconcerting for sure, but nearly every team takes one or two of those through the course of the season. With the emergence of Henderson this team has offensive options like very few others. If they can find someway to steady the PG play and get Singler some help on the boards, they can still make a Final Four run.

#10. Marquette - SELL. The Maniac has been warning you about the Eagles final five games for about two months now. Starting this week, we will find out if he was right. They are a sure fire 2-3 seed right now, don't be surprised if it is a 5-6 in three weeks...

#11. Missouri - HOLD. I have been touting them all year and saying how underrated the Tigers were... but at #11 we might have reached our apex here. No possible way this is a Final Four team, but getting out of the first weekend would still be a nice accomplishment given preseason expectations.

#12. Villanova - BUY. Not only have the Wildcats impressed with their five game win streak over Syracuse, Cincy, Pitt, Providence and Marquette (yes, they JUST lost to WVU), but they also have a finishing schedule that should be at least a 4-2 or even a 5-1 finish. That puts them well aligned for a 3 or 4 seed come tourney time. I love teams that have a lot of offensive weapons, but who know who their go-to scorer is come crunch time. Scottie Reynolds does, and has, filled that role for quite a while in Phily.

Teams #13-#25 tomorrow.

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Pool Standings

A Long ways to go, but some interesting scenarios are shaping up. Aaron and Kevin J appear to be out to a good start, and have the mighty Tar Heels cuttin' em down in San Antone' ... but both have significant losses already out of their Final Four's (namely Georgetown and Pitt). Same goes for Pap (curse of living in PA - Pitt ALWAYS does you in early...)

Sitting pretty? John K. Still with in striking range of the top, he leads on the "possibility" chart with both Michigan St, West Virgina, and Stanford all in his Final Eight. With a few good bounces, he could be lapping the field come Saturday morning!

The Commish has it all hanging on a good 'ole Tri-State prayer, with both Louisville and X in the Final Four. It may not be the MOST likely, but certainly NOT impossible. With a few good breaks, he could sow it up early and save the hassle of mailing a check!

Shutley is still a force to be contended with, having Memphis as his champ (have you SEEN these guys from the line though!!) and Tennessee in the Final Four. His standing as of now would net him the cash if Memphis cuts down the nets (maybe we can give them 1/2 a point for hitting the rim??)

Cartwright has a puncher's chance as well with his gutsy SEC-homer pick of the Vols. He is still in it, but smart money says Lofton and crew are sent packing by the depth and defensive pressure of Louisville's guards.

Chandler and Shanda have it all hanging with the Rock Chalk Jayhawk, and the way that bracket broke, both could be sitting pretty 12 days from now... KU beats Nova easy Thursday, but gets a real test from the Badgers (assuming they stave off Stephen and "Cats of Davidson). The possible Memphis-Texas game would separate the two if it happens (Shan has Texas)


Dad (Whitey's Winners) breathed a HUGE sigh of relief when Lopez (the one with the girls name... oh wait...) hit the improbably-angled game winner to keep the Cardinal alive. Pops stays alive as well, but not sure he will be for long with Texas, Memphis and UCLA their potential next three opponents...
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And Gramma... despite having her dreams dashed when Cornell JUST lost to Stanford...and having Pitt (her national Champ) go Pitt (new adjective meaning "to underperorm predicatably in the early rounds of the tourney) , in the 2nd round...and despite losing two other Final Four teams in Georgetown and Duke... well, never mind. Safe to say Gram will have to wait until next year. But on behalf of the entire group, thank you for the ten dollars! (someone print this out and send it to them... it makes the smack talk a little more relevant)

Also a note - Missy, Bill and Judy all have their picks on file with the Commish. I will keep you updated as any of them become relevant to the overall standings down the road, and ALL people who appear to be missing a national champ pick submitted to me in time as well... other than that, the standings you see are LEGIT and GOOD.

Except Tom. Rather than shaft me ten dollars this year, he opted not to submit picks at ALL. But at least he registered. Hope he is a better fisherman than pool-participant!!

Enjoy some GREAT match ups this weekend. Also, be sure to vote and comment on the blog - LOVE to get some good smack talk and hoops chatter going...

While you are there - CLICK THE ADS. It helps pay for the fees and trophies for this monstrosity of a pool... Word.
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ENJOY!
The Chief Maniac

Capping the Sweet Sixteen

After one weekend, here are the most impressive/dangerous teams of the tourney:

1. North Carolina - Is there any doubt? Absolutely steamrolled Arkansas, and showed an amazing ability to control tempo. There are going to need to in order to handle the stifling defense of a very underrated Washington St. squad.

2. Louisville - What a shame they will have to meet the Tar Heels shy of the Final Four. A team with absolute national champion-talent, as evidenced by the controlling domination of a solid Oklahoma squad.

3. Kansas - Yet to be challenged in the Big tourney, rolled through the Big 12 Tourney as well. If Self can stay out of the way, it seems unlikely this team will be stopped short of San Antonio

4. Washington St. - The most anonymous, dangerous team in the tourney. Unfortunatly for them UNC sits on deck. Their scrambling, trapping defense and ability to control tempo held Notre Dame to 41 points Saturday.

5. Wisconsin - The best team in the country that no one os talking about. Handled K-St. and Beasley from the opening tip and cruised into the Sweet 16. The looming match-up with Kansas could be a classic.

6. Xavier - Two solid victories over GA and Purdue. This senior-laden team plays aggressive man to man defense and switches on perimeter ball screens better than any team in the field. They have the versatile bigs to run waves of defenders at Joe Alexander on Thursday.

7. West Virginia - Speaking of Joe Alexander, he and the Mountaineers took it TO the Dookies Saturday. Their agressive, fearless, tenacious style makes for one of the most interesting Sweet 16 matchups that is flying under the radar.

8. UCLA - I know. A&M had them on the ropes. But yet, again, UCLA found a way to pull it out. Collinson and Love are fearless in the clutch and if worse comes to worse they can make the game winner from behind the backboard.

9. Michigan St. - Perhaps a fortunate recipient of the annual Pitt gift-wrapping victory, but no question Neitzel took over that game late and didn't let go.

10. Davidson - Perhaps the run is over after Wisconsin, but has any team brought more excitement and joy to the tourney than the Davidson Wildcats?

11. Texas - The game against Miami wasn't nearly as close of the score, with the Longhorns controlling the game throughout, but the foul foul-shooting is cause for concern

12. Memphis - Speaking of FOUL. Wow. Anyone who sincerely thinks Memphis can win a national title needs only to watch the last two minutes of the Mississippi St. game. You cannot win three or four games in a row holding on for deal life. Sooner or later, it catches up with you. My guess is against Stanford Sunday night.

Just a Little Crush

Player of the Weekend

It's OK.

My wife is cool with it, and I am not the least bit ashamed to say I have a man-crush on Stephen Curry of Davidson. Slightly complicating matters are the fact that he appears to be no more than 14 years old...but that is an issue for another day.

I think it is balanced out by my wife twice asking if Stephen Curry's Mom was "Brooke Burke." (If you don't know who that is - google her NOW)

Curry's performance over the weekend went from spectacular after his 40 point outburst against Gonzaga, to timeless after dropping another thirty today and dropping the second-seeded Hoyas in dramatic double-digit comeback fashion. On Friday, I sat screaming at my TV while watching Curry torpedo the Zags "Move over Brice Drew." Today, it is becoming move over Christian Laettner.

Ok, that's a bit much - but consider what Curry and his Davidson Wildcats have already accomplished: Not only did they win the school's first NCAA Tourney game in 39 YEARS (I believe that team was coached by Lefty Dreisell - I'll need Poppa Maniac to verify that one...) They now sit squarely in the Sweet 16, the most talked about team in the nation. Regardless of HOW the game against Wisconsin turns out Davidson has left their indelible time-stamp on all that is good about March Madness.

Not that Curry's success is a shock to true college hoops fans; we already knew he was good. (see here) it is just that few knew he could be this good on this big of a stage. In two games, two dramatic comeback upset wins Curry has tossed in fifty five second half points. That alone would rank him among the tourney leaders.

Watching Curry and teammates leaping chest-bumps reminded me of my 14-under AAU team, he looks like a kid, full of joy and most of all, full of big shot, fearless moxy.

My new favorite player, and thousands of people across the country's as well... Player of the Opening Weekend, no doubt, Stephen Curry.

Tournament Day One Musings

Day One - Finally, some Madness

• I know Belmont played a great game and gave it a good run... but why is no one mentioning how ludicrous that inbounds play was?? Who draws up a backdoor alley-oop when you are smaller, slower and weaker at every position on the floor? I'd much rather see a double screen for a nice 18 footer off the elbow, but that's just me...
  

• Anyone catch Arizona v WVU? Arizona gets my vote for most disappointing team in 2008. Chase Buddinger is the next Josh McRoberts. Every time he takes the floor, his draft stock drops further. This guy was a projected lottery pick??

• Kansas State is legit. Looking WAY to far down the brackets, interesting possibility looming for Beasley, Walker and company. Manhattan? Check. Lawrence? Not Quite. Africa? Doesn't look like that one will make the schedule, BUT Beasley could get a chance to tackle the 'Hawks to punch a dance ticket to the Final Four.

• Duke is in real trouble. West Virginia by 12 on Saturday.

• How about the Big East? 4-0 yesterday, with Louisville, Georgetown and UCONN prohibitive favorites today. If Villanova can "upset" Clemson, it will be a perfect 8-0 for the BIG East.
  

• Meanwhile the Pac-10 looked a little lackluster. For a conference supposedly as deep and balanced as any in the nation, evenly slotted teams in Kansas St and West Virginia make the Pac-10 look a little pedestrian.

• When in doubt? Put your money on the team with the BEST PLAYER on the floor. With only 1 exception (Kentucky, Joe Crawford) the team with the best player on the floor won. Michael Beasley, Luke Harangody, Joe Alexander, etc.

• This bodes well for team today like: Western Kentucky (Courtney Lee), Villanova (Scottie Reynolds), and Butler (Mike Brown). Enjoy a great Day Two!

Above Average Joe

Joe. I'm Sorry.

For the past two years, as a long-time Wildcat fan, I decried the downfall of Kentucky basketball and associated it to one defining moment. The ill-fated signing of Joe Crawford. Mind you, it was nothing personal, just a perfect, shining example of all the unfulfilled promise of the program, and ultimately the impetus behind Tubby's ouster. Minnesota, are you enjoying Tubby? Thank Joe Crawford.

Not that it was ALL Tubby's fault for signing him. Nearly everyone agreed the 6'5'' swingman was a future star, NBA-bound. Check Rivals.com for proof. It was because of that promise that Tubby used his three scholarships on Rajon Rondo (about to compete for an NBA Title), Randolph Morris, (he's smarter than you think, he'll be happy to fax you some test scores...) and the aforementioned Crawford. Just missing the cut, reigning Mr. Basketball in the state of Kentucky, the crestfallen Chris Lofton.

Chris Lofton... the missing link to Kentucky's significant shooting woes... oh what could have been... if only not for Joe Crawford....

Joe. I'm sorry. Sincerely, I should have never doubted you. Sure, it took a little longer to get there, but anyone who watched Kentucky catch fire and run through the SEC knows that success was due in large part to Crawford's ability to score and create offense for the oft-offensively inept Wildcats.

Joe's 35 points today in a tough tourney loss were spectacular. For 40 minutes he showed all the scoring ability and promise of four years ago. Joe. Again, I'm sorry. Just wish I could have told you sooner.

Biggest Bracket Blunders

Biggest Bracket Blunders:

It’s the time of year again when all us hardcore fans are subjected to the unmerciful taunting of the jackass in the adjacent cubicle who hasn’t watched a game all year and just picked based on mascots, and is still a few points up in the pool. It is as unavoidable as a senator getting caught with a hooker (guys – you are rich, powerful, there are a LOT of people who want to see you caught with a hooker!).

So here a few sure-fire blunders to avoid when filling in your brackets this year.

1. Searching for the “Next George Mason”

Look, I get it. Us hardcore junkies would rather come in last that pick the standard 1-1-1-2 Final Four (gotta throw in that one 2 seed to be “edgy”). The simple fact is, the reason the expression came to pass in the first place is that is ALMOST NEVER happens. There are always upsets, but only once in the since 1992 has a non-major conference team advanced to the Final Four. That would be 1 of 64 teams, or about 1.6%.

You could be the one to nail it, but odds are keeping closer to reality is the way to go. If you want to be “edgy” and out there, grab a 4 or 5 seed with a solid nucleus, good coach and solid backcourt play, tough defense and a guy who can score the basketball (see: Vandy, Wisconsin, Pitt)

2. George Mason is NOT the “Next George Mason”

It just isn’t happening this year guys. You aren’t the clever one picking the upset, buck the trend and take the Irish. They are good. Actually the fit the formula from above to the T….hmmm

I know – you wanna take the “shocking” 5-12 upset… just take the Irish.

Speaking of the shocking 5-12 upset…

3. The 5-12 Game is Closer to a Pick-Em Than You Think!

The reason there are so many upsets in the 5-12 game, is because they aren’t really upsets. The true underdogs don’t come into play until the 13 seeds when the at-large teams are exhausted. In your average 5-12 game you are taking a team around 20 in the RPI and pitting them against a team somewhere in the mid-thirties. Add in the fact that the game is on a neutral floor, with tourney one-and-done pressure, and it is a much closer than the 5-12 would indicate… and anything can happen.

4. But Rarely to the True Big Guys


Looking at some of the classic true upsets in the opening round over the past ten years, you will notice an interesting trend. Nearly every one of them was a team that was experiencing a better than expected year, and few had a household-name bonafide star.

Cases in point:

1998: Brice Drew & Valpo in a stunner. The shot sent 4 seed Mississippi home. Major conference, not a perennial power. There are more…

2006: (14) Northwester State over Iowa
2001: Hampton (15) over Iowa St.
2002: UNC Wilmington (13) over USC
2003: Tulsa (13) over Dayton

Name me one player on any of those teams off the top of your head (no – that wasn’t the ISU team with Fizer and Tinsley). Tough to do right? Because big-name programs with big-name stars are rarely the victims…

Except for Kansas…
2005: Bucknell (14) over Kansas
2006: Bradley (13) over Kansas

So – Who are the most likely to fall victim this year? Washington St & Xavier (a tough 14-draw in SEC Champ Georgia) better watch out. However, both dodge the traditional profile, as both played multiple games in last year’s tourney, and return 3 or 4 starters.

Players to Keep an Eye On

Ten to Watch:

There is a good chance you are already on a first name basis with some of the most acclaimed stars in the country: Tyler Hansbrough & Ty Lawson, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love & Darren Collinson, Chris Lofton, Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo, DJ Augustine, Roy Hibbert, Brook Lopez, Derrick Rose and Chris Douglass-Roberts . New stars have emerged into the spotlight over the past few weeks as the media has fallen in love with players like Aaron Harangody of Notre Dame and Adam Emenecker of Drake (really, really great story, by the way: you can read more at: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/champweek2008/columns/story?columnist=rittenberg_adam&id=3285253

However March is the time when stars are born, often beyond some of the usual suspects. Here are ten to keep an eye on as March Madness unfolds.


1. David Padgett (Lousivlle, senior C) – Perhaps no single player means more to their team than Padgett. The 6-11 super senior (on an extra year of eligibility because of injury plagued seasons) is the general on the floor for the Louisville Cardinals. While his stats are not stellar, his impact on the floor is immense. His deft passing, fierce competitiveness and soft shooting touch make defenses sag of do-everything swing man Terrance Williams, however it is his leadership that truly make him special. Simply watch the way he takes oft-troubled sophomore power forward Derrick Caracter under his wing on each timeout, and the way his teammates look to him in big moments and you can see the potential of this club to still be playing in April.

2. Shan Foster (Vanderbilt, senior SF) – Shan Foster cemented his legacy at Vanderbilt and his status as conference player of the year over the more heralded Chris Lofton with an absolutely amazing performance 3 weeks ago in which he hit NINE consecutive 3’s – all after the 10:00 mark in the 2nd half, including the game winner in overtime. This athletic assassin, teamed with freshman big man AJ Ogilvy, makes Vanderbilt a true contender, and a dangerous foe for the Jayhawks should they meet in the Sweet 16.

3. Stephen Curry (Davidson, soph SG) – If you haven’t had a chance to see the sharp-shooting son of former NBA’er Dell Curry play yet, you are in for a true treat. Averaging over 25 ppg, Curry has the ability to get hot, create his own shots, and shoot Davidson right into a Sweet 16 game. Early season tests from Duke, UCLA and UNC have Stephen and his Davison club well prepped for tourney action.

4. Mike Green (Butler, Sr. SG) – This season Green only led his team in scoring, rebounding, assists, and the weight room. OK, I made the last one up, but have you seen some of the guys running around for Butler? Green and Graves make up one of the best backcourts, not just in a mid-major conference but in the entire country. In a tourney where guard play is at a premium, those two make Butler a force to contend with.

5. Drew Neitzel (Mich St. Sr. PG) – It has been a bit of a roller coaster season for Neitzel and the Spartans, but Tom Izzo always seems to have his squad ready for March, and with the sharp-shooting and gritty senior leadership of Neitzel, 2008 could prove no exception.

6. Trent Plaisted (BYU, So. PF) – The 6’11’’ Senior averaged more than 15 points and 7.5 rebounds all season and gives the Cougars a legit post prescence, something that is lacking for most teams in the tourney. BYU will go as far as Plaisted takes them

7. Drew Lavender (Xavier, Sr. PG) – As Lavender goes, so go the Muskies. Leading a team with six players averaging double figures, and NONE more than 13.5ppg does not happen by accident. It takes great balance, and more importantly a great floor general to make it work. The 5’7’’ Lavender is the engine that makes the balanced Musketeers attack go. The health of Lavender and his injured ankle will go a long way in determining how long X is dancing.

8. Jarryd Bayless (Arizona, Fr. PG) – All the attention heading into the opening round game has been focused on West Virginia’s Joe , but the game hinges much more squarely on Bayless’s shoulders. The freshman sensation missed time during the season (partially to blame for Arizona’s double-digit losses) but when healthy is on the same plane as Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo and Derrick Rose. He’s that good. If the ‘Cats can claw past the Mountaineers, he and Chase Buddinger present real match-up problems for the Dookies.

9. Courtney Lee (W. Kentucky, Sr. SG) – If you are a regular reader, Lee is no surprise to you, but to the casual basketball fan his inclusion might be as puzzling as the red thingy that is his school’s mascot (it’s a Hilltopper… no clue either). This sure-fire NBA first rounder makes WKU one of those pesky 12 seed matchups.

10. LaVance Fields (Pitt, SG) – How is this for numbers to chew on; Pitt is 17-1 with Fields in the line-up. He will be in the line-up come tourney time, fresh off a Big East title in which they toppled 4 teams in 4 days, including trendy Final 4 pick Georgetown.


More special players to watch: DJ White (Indiana, Sr. PF), DeAndre Jordan (Texas A&M, Fr. C), Stanley Burrell (Xavier, Sr. SG), Pat Calathes (St. Joe’s, Sr. SF), Scottie Reynolds (Villanova, Jr. SG), Brian Butch (Wisconsin, Sr. PF), Bill Walker (Kansas St., So. SG), Dominique James (Marquette, Jr. PG), Joe Crawford (Kentucky, Sr. SF), Hasheem Thabeet (UCONN, So. C), AJ Graves (Butler, Sr. SG), Joe Alexander (SF WVU), AJ Abrahams (Texas, Jr. SG), Kyle Singler & DeMarcus Nelson (Duke, Fr. & Sr. – SGs)

Punative Damages? Don't Call Us...We'll Call You

Punitive Damages? Don’t Call Us…We’ll Call You

Let me give you a quick profile of an at-large NCAA Tournament team. 25-7 overall. 8-4 in their last twelve games. A second place finish in one of the BCS power conferences. Wins over Kentucky, Michigan St., Ohio St twice. 5 of 7 losses quality losses against Top 25 teams, and an RPI of 23.

Where would you seed them? 5? Maybe a 6? In the case of the 25-7 Indiana Hoosiers, try an EIGHT slotted against North Carolina for a second round match-up in Chapel Hill…er, Raleigh.

Should Indiana be punished for Sampson’s transgressions? Absolutely. Particularly in light of the fact that it is the exact same transgression that followed him prior to being hired by IU. As Terrell Owens would say, “if it walks like a duck…” The school knowingly took a risk in hiring Sampson (why would be a whole separate article for a later day – it isn’t like you were getting Dean Smith reincarnated). My problem lies in the fact that the kids are the ones taking the hit here. Not IU, and not Kelvin Sampson (yes he got fired, but rumor has it he is going to be the bench coach for Jim Harrick in the NBADL. Even Dave Bliss thinks that is a great idea).

The people punished are DJ White, Eric Gordon, and the rest of the current Hoosiers who did nothing wrong. The text overage charges they incurredalone should be punishment enough! A sure-fire 5-6 seed drops like a stone to an 8, a near certain 2^nd round early exit and in a few years Sampson will crop up again and coach at a program completely sanction-free. I imagine the partisan crowd in Raleigh on Sunday will not be the least bit disturbed, but to me it seems a lousy end to a promising season.