Each year as the calendar reaches Christmas and lunges forward toward the new year, the national landscape has inevitably shifted dramatically from what all the "geniuses" and "experts" had just mere months ago believed to be true. There are always a few pleasant surprises and a few disappointments, and with respect to Denny Green, some teams "are who we thought they were."
Take Duke for example. The Devils entered the season at #1 and have done nothing to even remotely dissuade the pollsters. Even with the uncertainty surrounding freshman point guard sensation Kyrie Irving's toe it is hard to compile any form of rankings that doesn't have the Blue Devils atop the list. Their schedule may not have been the most difficult, but with wins over Michigan State, Kansas State, Butler and Marquette it's hard to argue they haven't been tested. Even Duke's gimme games are against better opponents than some of the Big 12 and BEast giants have fattened up on.
For the most part, the power conferences expected to be strong have not disappointed. The Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East comprise more than 60% of this week's Top 25, and each have several additional teams sitting right on the cusp of the Top 25.
In fact, after Butler's celebrated "rise of the little guys "run last March, this season is as devoid of any non-BCS conference contenders as any in recent memory. Butler, Xavier and Gonzaga, three of the most reliable mid-majors, have all struggled and are considerably off their recent top form. Memphis, who despite never being lumped in with the other "mid-majors" is coming off a season where they missed the tourney for the first time in nearly a decade. If this season's struggles continue, they might soon find themselves lumped in with the other have-nots in terms of public perception, relegated to "Mid Major Top 10's" and other such previously "beneath them" relegations. Second tier mid-major darlings like Siena, Creighton, Virginia Commonwealth, Winthrop, and Davidson all seem devoid of the magic that lingered over the past few seasons. Sadly, the national landscape is significantly lacking in mid-major excitement.
For better or worse, let's take a look at March Maniac's 10 Most Intriguing Story lines of the young season:
10. UCF Cracks Top 25 - Watching Marcus Jordan and the Knights vanquish instate foes Florida, Miami and South Florida it is hard to imagine how the coaches had them tabbed 10th in the preseason C-USA poll. Yes, Conference USA is deeper and much improved, with Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB and UTEP all solid. It is still evident the coaches
really fanned on this one. With four quality wins under their belts already, it isn't out of the realm of possibility the Knights could qualify as an at-large selection if need be come March.
9. The SEC Worst...er "West" - Thank goodness for the East or else the SEC would have a difficult time contending they are even among the top 10 conferences in the country. Ole Miss and Mississippi State
could be decent, the same goes for Arkansas...however the fact remains that these six collectively already boast losses North Texas, Nicholls State, Coastal Carolina, Samford, UNC Ashville, Campbell, Presbyterian, Florida Atlantic, St. Peters's and East Tennessee State. Auburn and Alabama have been abysmal, LSU has stunk even with their typical lousy schedule. Ditto for Arkansas. It's looking like a long wait until football season for a lot of fans in SEC country.
8. The Toe You Know - Two months ago, Kyrie Irving was relatively unknown outside of die-hard college hoop fans. After exploding on the scene against Kansas State and Michigan State, thoroughly outplaying All-Americans Jacob Pullen and Kalin Lucas in the process, Kyrie was edging himself into national POY status - despite sharing the Duke spotlight with established stars like Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.
Now, the prospects of Duke making a run at perfection seems to hinge largely on the "will he, won't he" return status around his nebulous injured toe.
Regardless of how it shakes out, here's hoping we get to see Kyrie one more year in Durham playing alongside Austin Rivers and all three Plumlee boys...
7. The BEast Still Roars - There was some speculation that this might be a down year for the Big East, or at least a year when the Big Ten and Big 12 can borrow a little of the shine. As Big Ten alumnus Lee Corso likes to say, "not so fast my friend!"
Of the seven remaining undefeated teams in the nation, three reside in the BEast. What makes that even more impressive is that these three do NOT include Pitt, Georgetown or Villanova, all who possess the talent to land in the Final Four. UConn and Syracuse have dazzled this year, not only winning every game but beating quality opponents convincingly. Cincinnati is one of the nation's surprises at 12-0. The Bearcats take some knocks for the light schedule, but I became a believer after watching them double up a quality Dayton club 68-34.
Add in Louisville, West Virginia, Marquette and Notre Dame who have all played fantastic and you are once again looking at a league with nine or ten elite ballclubs.
Aside from St. John's and seemingly permanently sluggish DePaul, it's hard to label any team in the BEast a disappointment thus far in 2010.
6. Freshman Leading the Way - Take a look at the top of the polls and you'll find a number of elite teams being led by some simply stunning freshman. Jared Sullinger has Ohio State looking like the team most capable of taking down the Dukies. If I had a ballot (still waiting for mine...hmmm), Sullinger is my vote for National POY. Duke's Kyrie Irving has been flawless (get well soon Kyrie), and Kentucky has an entirely new cast of characters, but is achieving the same fantastic results, powered largely by three freshman including standout PF Terrance Jones.
Don't be surprised if the year ends with at least two freshman on the All-American team
5. Carolina Blues - Last year's fiasco was supposed to be a quick blip on the radar, a one season anomaly to be erased completely this Fall with the arrival of freshman phenom Harrison Barnes. To this point, Barnes has struggled mightily and the Tarheels are plagued by the same problems as a year ago; terrible play from the point and the lack of consistent offensive production from their wings. Carolina salvaged what could have been a disastrous preconference season with the win over Kentucky, but at 8-4 and their second-best win a squeaker over Charleston at home they need to go
at least 10-8 in ACC play to get a tourney invite. Someone send Roy a box of Kleenex for Christmas... he might really need 'em.
4. Speaking of the ACC...and Who Would Want To? - The WCC has long been known as "Gonzaga and the Other Guys." This year, the ACC might more aptly fit the bill, substitute "Duke" for Gonzaga. Virginia Tech was allegedly the second best team in the conference. They raised their level of schedule this year, in response to being narrowly omitted from the past two NCAA tournaments. Schedule strength only helps if you
win a few of the games. At 7-4, the Hokies find themselves in all-too-familiar territory; needing to win in conference to avoid popping once again on the dreaded bubble.
3. Kings of the Mountain - Move over Pac-10, the Mountain West is clearly the class of the West this year. San Diego State has risen all the way to #7 in the polls and the ranking isn't a fluke. Kawhi Leonard and company are big, quick and deep enough to make a serious run at the Final Four.
BYU returns senior scoring machine Jimmer Fredette, and UNLV has navigated an extremely challenging preconference schedule pretty well with wins over VA Tech, Kansas State and Wisconsin, and a quality loss to Louisville on the road. The one point loss to UCSB is a head scratcher, but as we like to remind folks on March Maniacs, nearly every teams will use their mulligan somewhere along the way.
Even New Mexico, Utah and Air Force put decent squads on the floor making the MWC not only the best conference out west, but arguably the fourth best conference in the country this season. (Behind only Big 12, Big Ten and the BEast).
2. The Benefits and the Doubt - Improper benefits have been the buzzword this season in college hoops. Let's hope there aren't many more to deal with before tourney time, but it seems inevitable one or two more issues will crop up. Enis Kanter was denied eligibility by the NCAA, and unless a surprising reversal occurs in the next week, Kentucky will never get the 7-foot Turkish big man into Wildcat blue. Josh Selby's much anticipated debut had to wait until last week before the Kansas PG was cleared to play after serving his
suspension for accepting improper benefits (to the tune of less than $1,000 in travel allowance).
Tennessee finds themselves in the most unique predicament, as Bruce Pearl has been suspended by the SEC (not the NCAA) for the first eight games of conference play. Due to a scheduling anomaly, Pearl WILL coach the UConn game that falls in the midst of the first eight conference games. For everyone's sake, let's hope the talk from here on out focuses more ON the court and a whole lot less on what is happening off it.
1. Can Duke Run the Table and Repeat as National Champs?
Before Kyrie Irving injured his toe, I would have contended not only do they have a shot, I think they
will in fact run the table. I wrote as much in a column immediately after the Kansas State game. Not only is Duke a very complete a ballclub this year, the ACC is truly lousy and devoid of a worthy rival.
After the injury? I'm still not backing off. Duke can run the table and be the first undefeated National Champ since Bobby Knight's Hoosiers 35 years ago. With Nolan Smith, Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry the Blue Devils still have plenty of ball handling and perimeter offense. Placing Kyle Singler at the four essentially gives them a fourth point guard to help handle any pressure and create good looks at the basket.
I love this team and how it is constructed. The most interesting thing about Duke? They won the title last year. This year's team is
better. Next year? The team will be EVEN BETTER than this squad with the arrival of Austin Rivers and the third Plumlee brother (a 7-footer to boot!)
Duke has several landmines they'll need to avoid; Carolina on the road is an electric environment and a rivalry game where you can throw out the team's records and know a battle is coming. Likewise trips to Florida State have historically given Coach K fits. I don't see any game for the rest of the regular season in which the Devils won't be considerable favorites heading into the game. Perfection is within their grasp, even if Kyrie doesn't return.
This is a broad generalization that SEC fans won't like much - but here it goes; SEC teams are good athletically, and with the exception of Vanderbilt, really, really, um... 'not smart'. Sorry Wildcat fans, did you watch your Cats nearly WALK the ball up the floor, frantically calling for and then waving off a screen - all while DOWN FOUR with less than ten seconds to play? By the time their shot finally clanged off the rim, the horn had sounded and Vandy won by four. It wouldn't have mattered even if it went in, because they wasted ten seconds advancing the ball!! 
