Stock Up, Stock Down - Updating the VERY Fluid Bubble Picture

Selection Sunday is barely three weeks away and the scramble for position is starting to heat up.  Here's a quick recap of who helped their cause in the last five days and who is beginning to teeter.

STOCK UP:

Kansas State - The Wildcats saved their season Monday night with a convincing win over #1 Kansas.  Kudos to Jimmy Dykes of ESPN, who before the game said that if State had any chance of pulling the upset, senior Jacob Pullen needed to have a "Jimmer Fredette game." 

Pullen did just that, scoring a career-high 37 points.  The win resurects the Wildcats tourney life...for now.  Those two losses to Colorado are still a tough hurdle to overcome, particualrly if the Buffaloes can finish strong.

Boston College - I'm still not sold on the Eagles tourney worthiness, but their 76-72 win over Maryland moves them into much better position in the down ACC.

North Carolina - The Tarheels are still a Top 4 seed in the Maniac's book.  Their road win at Clemson all but assured them second place in the ACC, and put the final nail in Clemson's already weak NCAA chances.

Colorado State - Don't look now, but the Rams are one of the nation's most surprising at-large contenders.  I am not sure if the MWC can pull four bids, so it is imperative they keep pace with UNLV these last three weeks.  Saturday's win over New Mexico was enormous for CSU, and the final nail in Coach Alford's New Mexico Lobos' coffin.

The Rams still control their own destiny.  The host UNLV, and travel to BYU and San Diego State in three of their final five games.  Take two of those three and avoid any slip-ups and the Rams are in.  Easier said than done, but if you would have told and CSU fans the previous scenario back in November, I assure you they'd have taken it with a huge grin.

Temple - The Owls went on the road and hammered Dayton.  The Owls are all but a lock at this point, and have a shot at creeping as high as a #5 or #6 if they finish strong (which they seem to do every year).

Florida - We wrote about the Florida v. Tennessee game at length, so no need to rehash the ugliness.  But for Billy D, the Gators are nearing lock status.  With a stong finish they could creep as high as a #4, however with a tailspin they could slide all the way down to the #9-#10 range.

Memphis - Back to back wins over Southern Miss and UAB (Sat & Wed) all but clinch the Tigers as a tourney team in the Maniac's book.

St. John's - Lavin and the Johnnies got a huge win, 59-57 at Cincinnati Sunday.  ESPN has them as a #7 currently.  The followed up the win with a 80-68 win over Marquette - a huge win made even bigger by how much it damaged their fellow Big East bubble denizen's chances  We still have them holding in the #9 range - but definitely a tourney team barring a late collapse. 

Cincinnati - Yes, they lost in the aforementioned game, but the Wednesday pasting of Louisville moves the Bearcats into really good position to capture a well-deserved tenth bid for the Big East.


Virginia Tech - The Hokies are making a late surge towards finally ending up on the right side of the bubble.  Sunday's 102-74 win over Georgia Tech was an impressive offensive display.  Tuesday's pasting of Maryland moves them even closer, and they are beginning to separate them from the ACC bubble pack. 

Butler - The Bulldogs are making a furious rush to get back in the at-large discussion.  They've now won five straight, including wins over Wisc-Milwaukee, Wright State and Cleveland State to climb back to 11-5 in the Horizon League.


STOCK DOWN:

Duquesne - The Dukes tourney hopes took a devestating blow with Saturday's home loss to Xavier.  It isn't so much that the loss is bad more than it was the Dukes one great chance to earn a validating win that slipped through their fingers.  Despite their 11-2 A10 record, they still have only one Top 50 win to their resume (and eight losses).

Southern Miss & UAB - Both fell victim to conference bully Memphis this week; their respective tournament hopes might have fallen victim with the losses.  Neither is dead, but both have a huge road ahead of them, particularly Southern Miss who is nearing "must win the conference tourney" status.

Northern Iowa - Their at-large hopes gasped their last breath Saturday in their 18-point home loss to Wichita State.  The Shockers are looking good for March; the Panther will need to pull a shocker if they hope to Dance again this year.

UNLV - The Reb's missed a golden opportunity Saturday, losing 63-57 at home to San Diego State.  UNLV needs to finish strong to earn a third bid for the MWC (and hold off Colorado State).

Georgia - The Bulldogs Wednesday night loss to Vandy was a damaging one.  Georgia falls to 6-5 in the SEC and just 17-8 overall.  It's fair to say they MUST win one of their next two games; at Tennessee and at Florida to stay in the tourney picture.

Duquesne Playing for Tourney Return

The Maniac has made no attempt to conceal his affinity for this year's Duquesne Dukes squad.  Aside from the fact that Papa Maniac once proudly roamed the campus, it's truly one heck of a story.  Not only have they not made the Tournament in over 30 years, but considering the off-court trauma they suffered several years ago with the shootings, et. all... it's really one of the best stories no one (aside from MarchManiacs!) has been covering

If the Dukes wanna dance, they'll need a repeat of last year's win over X

.

Today they host conference giant Xavier in a battle for first place in the A-10.  Duquesnes used their mulligan last week losing to St. Bonnaventure.  Because of their complete lack of a quality non-conference win, they probably don't get another one.  Not that a loss to Xavier would be a "bad loss" by any stretch, but the only clear path for the Dukes to make their long awaited return to the promised land of post-season relevance is to win the A-10 regular season crown.

That only happens if they defend their home floor this afternoon.

MANIAC'S PICK: Xavier +5

When RPI's Lie

It isn't the first, and it probably isn't the lastg column the Maniac will subject you decrying the many flaws of the RPI system - but let me quickly clarify.  RPI isn't a bad tool, it is just a little too flawed to be the end-all be-all instrument so many of the talking heads on TV make it out to be.

For one, it fails to measure any consideration of how well/poorly a team actually played in a particular win or loss.  For example, Penn State's road loss at Purdue by one point on a last second buzzer beater by likely first team All American JuJuan Johnson is worth as little to the Nittany Lions as is Iowa's 75-52 defeat.

However for all it's foibles, I haven't found (nor do I have any desire to create) a better, more consistent and effective tool for accounting for strength of schedule and opponent quality rather than merely just wins and losses.

Here are a couple teams that jump out to me as either too high or too low, according to the RPI poll on February 2nd.

The Highs:

#2 - BYU:  Look, I like, ne', love, Jimmer Fredette as much as everyone else.  But I find it nearly impossible to completely trust a poll that has BYU #2... or so I thought.  Upon further review the Cougars, at 21-2 overall, own impressive wins over Arizona, UCLA, St. Mary's, Creighton, UNLV and San Diego State.  That's actually a pretty impressive hall.  They are certainly worthy of Top Ten status, but any ranking higher than six or seven for the Cougs is still a little too high.

#14 - North Carolina:  I've been banging this drum for about two weeks now, but Carolina is actually good...a really close to being really good.  Their RPI reflects our instinct here as well; Carolina is a Top 4 seed if the season ended today.

#20 - St. John's:  Look, the Duke win might end up getting the Johnnie's to the Tourney.  But #20?!?  Are you serious?  They have eight losses and are tied for 11th place in their own conference.

And Lows:

#68 - Duquesne:  Sick of hearing about the Dukes yet??  In all seriousness, at 16-5, 8-0 in the seventh or eighth best conference in the country makes #68 offensively low.  Then factor in the four of the five losses are to Penn State, George Mason, West Virginia and Pitt, and it is really hard to see this team anywhere lower than mid-forties at worst.

#84 - Gonzaga:  Same exact logic as above; good team with excellent losses.  The Zags are still a strong at-large contender in my book, forget the RPI in the 80's - it's absurd.  Especially when you see teams like Kansas State and Michigan State fiftysomething spots ahead.

.

Something Old and Something New - Xavier, Duquesne Remain Perfect in A-10 Play

For Xavier, it's business as usual.  Despite some early season non-conference struggles the Muskies are off to a perfect 6-0 start in Atlantic Ten play and look to be on pretty safe footing for earning their tenth trip to the NCAA Tournament in eleven seasons.

Junior point guard Tu Holloway has been the steadying influence all season, meriting All-American consideration averaging 20.4 ppg and 5.4 assists.  Tonight he got a little help from his teammates, namely Mark Lyons who, like Holloway, scored 22 points in the Muskies 81-74 home win over George Washington.

The win pulls Xavier to 14-5, and a perfect 6-0 in Atlantic Ten play - good for a first place tie atop the standings.

Their fellow leader?  It's not Richmond or Temple, both of whom expect to make a repeat appearance to the tournament this season.  It isn't Dayton who returns their three top players from last year's NIT Championship team either.  Rather it is the Duquesne Dukes taking the A-10 by surprise, making a true push to earn their first Tournament appearance in thirty five years. To go back to the last time the Dukes actually won an NCAA Tournament game you'd have to search all the way back to the 1968-1969 season.

They won only one game in the 1969 tourney, yet made it to the yet-to-be-named "Sweet Sixteen."  How is this possible you ask??  Because back then they were 25 teams invited to the tourney, all seeded and bracketed strictly by their geography.  There was no shuffling of locations to make sure teams were seeded fairly by ability and record.  If you were in the West and the second best team in the country, suck for you, because you're gonna see UCLA in the opening weekend!

So, yeah, it's been a little while for Duquesne...

After tonight's 91-72 win over Fordham Duquesne extended their winning streak to nine games, the school's longest in more than three decades.  It is also their best start in conference play since joining the Atlantic 10 in 1976.  Their unlikely run at the conference crown is a storyline even the most jaded fan can't help but pull for. Beyond just the rather pedestrian history of Duquesne basketball, it is really the first time Duquesne has garned basketball headlines rather than the sordid and tragic headline revolving around the shooting incident in 2006. (If you are not familiar, google it if you choose - I'm going to keep it on-the-court related for today).

More impressive than the Dukes 14-5 (6-0) record and their winning streak is the manner in which they are carving up one of the country's best non-BCS conferences.  Their narrowest margin came in their first conference game, a 75-63 win at St. Joe's.  Since then, they have won by an average of 17.2 points per contest - including the eye-opening 78-66 win last weekend over Temple.

Duquesne has yet to travel to any of the conference's elite teams and have a fortunate scheduling break in not having to play Xavier or Temple on the road.  However, they will have several formidable tests before the season is over.  Sunday's visit from Dayton will be an excellent test - pass that on and the Xavier game on February 13th becomes absolutely enormous.

The Dukes still have a lot of work to do before getting into the Tourney, but it is a team and a feel-good story worth watching over the next month and a half.

UP NEXT:  
Xavier - @Richmond, @Charlotte, St. Louis    
Duquesne - Dayton, George Washington, @St. Bonaventure

.

Put Up Your Dukes - Duquesnes Stuns Temple to Move to 3-0 in A-10 Play

It's pronounce "Doo-Cane" by the way...

Somwhere Papa Maniac is smiling wide as his alma matter notched one of their biggest wins of the last twenty years. 

Just a few days after proclaiming Temple the best non-MWC mid-major in the country the Owls went to Pittsburgh and got steamrolled by the traditionally less-than-mighty Duquesne Dukes.  The final score wasn't humiliating, but after getting steamrolled by a 22-2 run to open the contest the Owls were never really competitive. 

For Duquesne, it is the kind of win that can jumpstart a team and catapault them on a serious run.  The win surges them to 3-0 in conference play and makes them a legitimate player in the A-10 race.  With Richmond getting beat by Rhode Island, Xavier and Dayton's respective trouble this season and the win today over league favorite Temple, the Dukes have put themselves in interesting position to do something they haven't done in several decades.  Make the NCAA Tournament.

Duquesne is quietly one of the most talent-rich teams in the league.   Both Bill Clark and Damien Saunders have a chance to play ball after college, albeit likely overseas, and the remainder of their roster is roster is a nice blend of experienced upperclassmen and several talented freshman.  In a relatively down year in the A-10 compared to the past four or five years, this is the perfect season for an unexpected team like the Dukes to nudge their way into the elite teams accustomed to their perch atop the league.

If the Dukes are going to make a run at the Tourney, it's going to have to be on the strength of an unprecendently solid conference record.  Duquesne entered league play at only 8-5, with a loss to George Mason and basically every team in the state of Pennsylvania (Pitt, Penn State, Robert Morris and just over the state line in a loss to West Virginia.  Their best wins were over IUPUI and Wisconsin Green Bay, so not much to hang their hat on when it comes time to impress the committee.

Despite the lack of a quality win, they did gather something almost equally important in the preconference season; a lack of fear of big time programs.  With the exception of Pitt, all their losses were by six or less points, including a three point loss at West Virginia.  With a few plays here and there, they could have easily won two or three of their tough losses.

Today's quality win was enormous, and provided the Dukes can stay level-headed following the surprising victory, the schedule does them some favors with four of the next five games being "should-wins" and the lone game in which they will likely be the underdog is a home game versus Dayton. 

I'm not quite ready to put Duquesne IN the tourney, but this is a team that could very easily get to 22 or 23 wins and make a solid case for inclusion come March.
.

Worth a Second Look

We chronicled the litany of fantastic games on slate last night, and ran out of room before even tackling the late block. Here's a quick rundown on some of last night's interesting and impactful results.

There is real trouble brewing in Berkley. Cal's MSG losses to Ohio State and Syracuse were unimpressive, yet still understandable. Both of those teams are among the best in the country. ast night's 86-78 loss to New Mexico is cause for concern. New Mexico is 7-0 and a solid MWC team, but the Pac-10 has really struggled in the early going and this is yet another ding to the reputation and Cal's post-season resume. Could we be looking at this year's Notre Dame??

Gonzaga is tough. They trailed most of the way against in-state rival Washington State (6-0), but Matt Boldin and Co. fought back for the 74-69 win. First year coach Kevin Bone's Cougars almost did what his Portland State team did last year; knock off the Zags IN the Kennel.

Speaking of Portland State, what an enormous win for the Vikings last night, clipping newly ranked in-state rival Portland. Portland's coach said he wanted to see how they responded to the newly earned attention and acclaim... Um, might want to close your eyes for this one. They got dropped by the 2-4 Vikings by 18 points.

Lastly, the two best games of the night that nearly no one saw - Duquesne closed down the "Igloo" in memorable; if not gut-wrenching, fashion. The Dukes had the ball in a tie game with 9 seconds to go, and fumbled the ball out of bounds unguarded. They held on to force overtime...then a second one...but Pitt finally prevailed by nine in double OT. The Maniac wonders why they got so scared to attack the hoop once overtime arrived...it is a game they should have won.

The other, another double OT thriller with UNLV clipping Arizona 74-72. UNLV is a likely tourney team, and Arizona could have really used the win, especially with their brutal schedule continuing to churn on. The Cats are only 4-3, but anyone who has seen them play has to be impresses with the jobs Nic Wise and new coach Sean Miller are doing in Tuscon.

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Wednesday's Hidden Gems - There are a TON

Tonight is the culmination of the Big Ten - ACC Challenge, with the conferences knotted at three apiece. However, there is a bevy of quality and intriguing hoops going on in places lesser covered. The Maniac is here to provide a guide to some games worth catching, and some early fine tuning of the Cinderella slipper-worthiness (worthiness is a word, per Seinfeld's "sponge worthiness" episode) across the nation's landscape.

Pitt (-5.5) @ Duquesne: The Maniac liked Duquesne as a sleeper tourney pick out of the improved, balanced Atlantic Ten. Then they went out and lost to Western Carolina, after struggling to a three point win over Arkansas-Monticello. Yep, the famed power Arkansas-Monticello. Not an impressive start. But keep in mind they just got 6'3'' scoring guard Melquan Boldin back this week, giving the four of the five leading scorers from 2008-09 back on the floor.

Meanwhile Pitt has looked impressive, starting 5-1 and playing Texas tough for 32 minutes before capitulating late. The names on the front of the jerseys and the early season results would seem to tilt the scales pretty heavily in Pitt's favor. I still like the Dukes tonight, as the game means just a little bit more for them.

Here's a nice article on the history of the series. Plus, Papa Maniac will appreciate the reflection on the Duquesne glory days...

Siena @ Georgia Tech (-6): Georgia Tech is the only ACC squad not playing in the Challenge this week, but will still get a challenge from the Siena Saints. Siena burst into national consciousness with the Double OT upset of Ohio State in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament last year. They even opened this season ranked in several polls. However they have already lost to both Temple and St. John's; both bubble teams at best.

This looks like a classic case of the long underrated proving to be, um, more "appropriately" rated. Georgia Tech however is a budding beast. Long gone is the 11-18 season of 2008-2009. These Jackets have no intention of sitting out this postseason.

Give me the Jackets to win and cover.

Old Dominion @ Richmond (-3): Another great matchup of small school potential darlings come March. Old Dominion entered the season as the favorite in the undervalued CAA. Richmond is one of the sleepers (behind Xavier and Dayton) to shake up the A-10.

Richmond is 6-1 with wins over Missouri and Mississippi State, and their lone loss to William & Mary (not a bad loss - seriously - click here), Old Dominion has been a little less sharp losing the the same two school Richmond padded their resume against.

However the head-to-head matchup is the true test. If we were playing the who-beat-who game, LeMoyne is better than North Carolina.

That said, I like Richmond in a really intriguing ballgame.

Western Kentucky @ South Carolina (-5.5): South Carolina and Devan Downey entered the season hoping to challenge Kentucky and Tennessee in the SEC East; and expecting to dance in March. They got their doors blown off by Miami and showed the hangover effect, giving up 93 points to Jacksonville in a game they were lucky to win 97-93.

Their next three games will really set the table for how much work they will have to get done in the insanely deep and balanced SEC (no, they are not the best conference, but have less drop off from 3 to 11 than any other league). After this they host Clemson and travel to Richmond. First things first, knock off a twice-defending Sweet 16 participant in the Hilltoppers.

The Hilltoppers have been really disappointing thus far; losing to LSU and Indiana State, and winning by only 4 and 1 vs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee and CS Northridge. Yuck.

South Carolina needs to bring some focus tonight. I think they will, and will win convincingly.

Rhode Island @ VCU (-4): Eric Maynor is gone, but VCU and first-year coach Shaka Smart have no intention of sitting out this year's Big Dance. They have already burried the memory of the loss to Western Michigan with big wins over Oklahoma and Nevada.

Rhode Island was one of the last teams on the outside of the bubble last year. Their early 4-0 start contains little to help remedy that in 2010. Tonight is huge for the Rams. They still have shots against Oklahoma St, Boston College and Providence. They can't afford many losses unless they want to be forced to win the A-10 to dance.

A really good game that most people will miss; give me RI in a close win.

Arkansas @ Oklahoma (-12): Hard to believe how much worse this game is than it sounds like it should be. Oklahoma has struggled mightily learning how to cope with the loss of the Griffin boys. Arkansas is scouring the campus for enough warm bodies to dress. What is this, Hickory High School??

Cover your eyes, and expect Oklahoma to take out a little frustration on the hapless Hogs.

The Maniac takes Willie Warren and the Sooners in a romp.

Oklahoma State (-2.5) @ Tulsa: This is one of the best games of the early season. An no one will get to see it. Except for the kids parents. And Tulsans. (Is that right? Tulsasians? Tulsainians? Can anyone help with this?)

Oklahoma State is has six easy cruising wins. However only the latest against Utah (who boasts losses to ) is evenly remotely relevant. After this, their only "games" before Big 12 play are against Pacific, Stanford and Rhode Island. All decent teams, but the Cowboys have a lot more opportunity for "bad losses" then they do "good wins." They need tonight more than it seems from a distance.

Their is no doubt of the importance of this game for Tulsa. Conference USA has become a one-bid league, more inline with the WCC and MVC than the Big Six. Many experts tabbed Tulsa as the pre-season fave (not us, it is still Memphis by a lot). They enter tonight 5-1, fresh off a loss to Missouri State. Tonight is a must win if they want to entertain notions of an at-large bid. After tonight, their two best remaining non-conference games are Colorado and Nebraska.

A won't put an official pick on this one; it really is a coin-flip to me. That said, I think the MO St. loss is a clear result of looking ahead to tonight and that Tulsa will give them one heck of a battle defending their home court.

These games all tip between 7-8pm EST. It is a fantastic early night for college hoops and one that will be reference back all season long as we begin to sort out RPI's and Power Rankings.

MANIAC'S PICKS (RECAP):
Duquesne +5.5
Georgia Tech -6
Richmond -3
South Carolina -5.5
Rhode Island +4
Oklahoma -12

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Big Tuesday Slate

A big day of college hoops and a first real look at a couple national title contenders:

8PM: Gonzaga @ Michigan State

The Zags mantra of anyone, anytime takes living form tonight as they essentially "open" their season at #2 Sparty. State returns All-American PG Kalin Lucas and a healthy supporting cast. The Zags lost a ton, including leading scorers Jeremy Pargo, Josh Heytvelt and budding star Austin Daye (who made a huge mistake leaving early...but that's another column. William Avery thinks he needed more college for crying out loud...)

That said, two things remain consistent in East Lansing. Izzo's clubs will fight you for 40 minutes, and they are always better in March than they are in November. I think they win tonight, but that Boldin and Co. keep the Zags hanging around long into the second half.
Maniac's Pick: Gonzaga +11

10 PM: Memphis @ #1 Kansas

The Tigers are in an interestingly unfamiliar position in 09-10, the hunter rather than the hunted. The rematch of the title game from two years ago bears absolutly zero resemblance. Only two "real" contributors remain (both Aldrich and Collins played supporting roles for the Jayhawks). However this Jayhawk squad might actually be more talented than the group that cut down the nets 20 months ago.

Memphis is not only unranked, most pundits have them second in a less-than-stellar C-USA. (The Maniac disagrees - Memphis wins the league again this year). Gone is Calipari. So too the bevy of NBA caliber recruits. In comes Josh Pastner, a 31 year old baby-faced rookie coach. The Tigers will be different in 09, but don't sleep on the athleticism of this club. Early in the season when teams struggle with shot selection and finding fluidity in their offenses, defense tends to rule.

The addition of Xavier Henry makes Kansas an early season title fave.

Memphis is better than most expect and could very likely be a first round favorite come March. However they won't be tonight. Expect an experienced Jayhawk squad to force a ton of turnovers and bad shots from the young Tigers and win with relative ease in a game that will look more impressive in March than it does tonight.
Maniac's Pick: Kansas -9.5

Other Game of Note:

Duquesne @ Iowa (9PM): To the casual fan, this is another early season patsy...and it might be. Only for the Dukes rather than the Hawkeyes. Iowa will be a punching bag in the loaded Big Ten this year. Get used to it Hawkeye fans. A loss at home tonight to the A-10 sleeper Duquesne is a tougher-than-advertised way to start
Maniac's Pick: Duquesne -2

Other Picks:
Georgetown -8 over Temple
Duke -17 over Charlotte
Iowa State -1 over Drake

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com