Thursday's Stock Report

Consider this part two of the series, updated with some fresh Thursday results from a couple of very big games with bubble implications

STOCK UP:

Belmont - With tonight's win the Bruins moved to 24-4, and 16-1 in the Atlantic Sun.  The A-Sun is nowhere in the stratosphere of an at-large berthing conference, however, considering that three of Belmont's losses are to Tennessee twice and Vanderbilt - none by more than nine, and one could make a very compelling case for the Bruins should they fall in the conference tourney.

Arizona - Very quietly Sean Miller has done on of the better coaching jobs in the country, and has the Wildcats poised not only to return to the Tourney, but to claim a Top 4 (I have them as a #3 today) seed.  Tonight's 79-70 win over Washington State was a big one for Arizona, and a huge blow to the Cougars bubble hopes.


Alabama - Even more quietly than Arizona, Anthony Grant has done the most stunning reclamation project in the nation, and has guided Alabama legitimately back into the NCAA Tourney discussion.  Tonight's win over LSU is nothing to shout about, but the Crimson Tide's 9-2 mark in conference sure is.  While Tennessee and Georgia are tripping all over themselves, Alabama is making early season losses to St. Peter's, Iowa, Providence and Seton Hall seem like distant memories.  Unfortunatly the Committee's memories are pretty long...

It may be too much to overcome, but right now, I'd give the Tide the nod over Georgia.

STOCK DOWN:


Minnesota - Losing to Penn State is not a good way to impress the Committee late.  The 66-63 loss doesn't knock the Gophers out, but it does put them in a very precarious position with a lot of pressure to finish strong and possibly even win a few games in the Big Ten tourney.

Clemson - If you appear in the Maniac's "Stock Down" in consecutive editions, things aren't going well.  Tonight's 79-71 loss to NC State should pretty much seal the Tiger's NIT destination.



Richmond - Tonight's 73-53 loss to Temple was really ugly.  The Spiders still have life, but are dancing right on the fine #12 seed/NIT line.  Duquesne has to be thrilled with the lopsided defeat, and in the Maniac's mock bracket, they have officially slid ahead of Richmond in the pecking order.

Games to Watch - Saturday December 11th

For those of you who have the college football "in-between blues," that odd period where teams dangle in limbo for two to five weeks waiting for their bowl games...all of which mean absolutely NOTHING save for one, saddle up for a fantastic day of college hoops that will bring it from noon until well after midnight.


Here's a quick overview of a few games worth catching or at least DVR'ing.

12:00 PM:  UNLV @ Louisville - Both teams are off to flying starts, undefeated and already possessing a few quality wins.  Tomorrow is a great opportunity to find out if Louisville's fast start is an indication they can compete in the loaded Big East and also an opportunity for the left half of the country to get a chance to see a very good UNLV team play.  UNLV has had the Cards number, beating them in each of the past two seasons (Louisville teams that were better, at least on paper, than this year's squad.)

This might actually be the best game of the day, a great way to kick of some hoops watching before lunchtime.  For the UNLV kids, it will be like playing a game at 9AM with the time change.  That's tough to do, and I think they'll come out a little flat and jet lagged.  Give me the Cards laying 3.5

2:30 PM:  Wisconsin @ Marquette - This game has quietly become one of the better rivalry games in the country over the past few seasons.  Both teams have a strong similarity in that it seems every season they are picked somewhere near the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, and sure enough, every year they exceed expectations and head to the Tournament. 

This year looks to be playing out exactly the same way.  Both teams enter at 7-2, with their losses coming against ranked foes and in close games.  Both have a few quality wins under their belt but can desperatly use another one before tackling conference play in the two toughest conferences in the nation.

Marquette will have the valuable home crowd advantage but I have a feeling Wisconsin has a touch more discipline and a little more cohesion and poise at this early juncture in the season.  Gimme the Badgers +1.

3:15 PM:  Tennessee @ Pitt - The Vols have been one of the season's pleasant surprises.  Tomorrow will be one of Pearl's last games on the sidelines before his oddly-arranged SEC-only eight game suspension takes effect.  Both teams are athletic and very physically tough.  I like Pitt at home in a really good ball game but nine points is a lot to lay considering this will likely be a game in the fifties or sixties.  I'll take the Vols and the +9.

4:00 PM:  Kansas State @ Loyola (IL) -  Odd line of the day.  not sure how K-State is laying only 8.5.  Gimme the Wildcats in a 20+ point romp.

4:00 PM:  Dayton @ Old Dominion -  The Flyers are reeling, despite their 7-2 record.  However, this is a talented and experienced club that should turn the corner soon.  Old Dominion continues their aggressive schedule with yet another hopeful tourney team.  I think the Monarchs win at home, but I'll take the Flyers +10.5

4:30 PM:  Washington @ Texas A&M - Texas A&M can land a clear blow for the Big 12 versus the Pac 10 with a win today at home.  Texas A&M is off to a good start at 8-1, however their only win of note came over Temple.  Washington has been carrying the banner as the only ranked team in the Pac 10, but it's hard to put A&M any better than sixth in the loaded Big 12.  I'm not sure if Washington feels any pressure to prop up their sagging conference, but a loss today is actually pretty damaging to league's overall profile.  I'll take Washington on the road, minus one and a half.

5:15 PM:  Indiana @ Kentucky - One of my favorite rivalries takes place today, and though much of the shine has faded over the past decade with neither school managing to be good at coinciding times, it still means a ton to their respective fan bases.  Indiana is in year three of the Tom Crean Era, and call me a hater, but it doesn't seem any real progress has been made.  Meanwhile in the Bluegrass it took Calipari all of half a day to bring the 'Cats from "NIT" to "Final Four" caliber. 

There's still a pretty big hill to climb in Bloomington, and I don't think today will be a step in that direction.  Give me Big Blue laying the thirteen points.

6:00 PM:  Arizona @ BYU - Sean Miller's Cats seem to be on the right track to erasing the memory of last year's rare tourney absence.  It had been nearly thirty years since the Cats were left out, and I'm sure Miller would like to put another thirty years distance in the rear view mirror.  A win today in Provo would go a long way.  I think they'll get it.  Gimme Arizona +2.5

7:00 PM:  Virginia Commonwealth @ Richmond - The sneaky gem in today's bursting schedule is this top-tier matchup between the CAA and the A-10.  Both schools have designs on playing in March, however neither league is notorious for collecting armloads of at-large bids.  Both schools could really use the chip today's win would provide. 

VCU's two losses are quality; Tennessee and to lesser extent, South Florida.  They also boast quality wins over UCLA and Wake Forest.  Richmond's losses are a little less solid; Old Dominion and Iona, however their wins are better; particularly the win over Purdue.

This should be a really good game, likely close, so I'll take VCU +8

8:30 PM:  Gonzaga @ Notre Dame -  The Zags are really struggling, and at 4-4 can ill-afford many more losses if they plan to continue their decade-long NCAA Tournament streak.  Notre Dame was one of the season's early surprises until Kentucky took some of their shine Wednesday night.  The line on this one is huge at 10.5, a number I think reflects a lack of confidence in Gonzaga rather than a ton of faith in the Irish.  I'm not so sure that either is warranted.  Give me Gonzaga and the points, and don't be surprised if they clip them straight up.

Maniac's Picks: Louisville -3.5, Wisconsin +1, Tennessee +9, Kansas State -8.5, Dayton +10.5, Washington -1.5, Kentucky -13, Arizona +2.5, VCU +8, Gonzaga -10.5

Three Reasons to Stay Up Late

Lest we be accused of an East Coast bias, I wanted to chime in with a quick update on a few games that have significant impact on the tourney landscape taking place out on the left coast.  If you need a reason to stay up until two o'clock tonight, I might be able to help you out.

The Pac-10 is a mess.  We've all heard that story.  It's not an unreasonable one, but it is getting a tad played out, and perhaps even a little overplayed.  Two games tonight can either contribute to the mess or forge two "contenders" for at-large selections (albeit one a bit of a reach)

Cal travels to USC tonight in a game that looked a lot better four weeks ago.  Since USC placed themselves on probation, low and behold, they kids just don't seem to be playing with the same intensity.  I wonder why?  Just because their once promising season has been crushed, along with their dreams of playing in the tourney murdered all because of what their old coach did regarding a player two years removed from the program?  That's no reason not to give the Old U your best effort...

(Picture total non-sequiter - just my running homage' to USC's AD "OJ'ing" the basketball season...)

Sarcasm aside, and my obvious slanted viewpoint, tonight is a big game for Cal.  A road win tonight in LA gets them to 7-3 in the Pac-10.  Despite the perception hit they took early, their overall profile is still in line to ercieve an at large bid if they can avoid another two or three losses.

The other game pits a bit of a role-reversal from how the season was supposed to unfold.  Washington came in to the season as the co-favorite, along with Cal.  It's been a dissapointing season to say the least.  Tonight they get a visit from suddenly-solid Arizona, who is tied atop the league with Cal.  Arizona's record is pretty brutal, but if they could string together four or five wins (just like last year), they would likely find the nation's longest NCAA tourney appearance streak granted another narrow reprieve.

In the WCC, Portland heads to Gonzaga.  Remember Portland?  We loved them.  We didn't love them  We completely forgot they existed.  Well, while we were sleeping the Pilots seemed to find their course.  They are 5-2 in league play, with their only losses coming to the Zags (by 3) and at St. Mary's (by 5).  If they can get a win tonight at the Kennel, admittedly easier said than done, they'd pull even with the Zags and both would trail St. Mary's by just a game in WCC play.  The Pilots chance to dance as an at-large flew away long ago, but a win tonight keeps them in the thick of things for the WCC crown.

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Feeding the Fire

Yup. For those of you counting the Maniac has now hit on 8 of 9 picks, nearly every one of them not just right, but almost exactly mapped in terms of tempo and margin. SO - what do we have in store for today?

Here's some quick Sunday picks:

No official pick here, but I have a feeling UCF is going to give Notre Dame a handful and even pull off an upset today in the Joyce Center.

1PM - South Carolina is banged up, Clemson is coming off a stunning second half twenty-plus point collapse against Illinois. The Tigers will be jacked up and focused to host in state rival USC and cover the 7 point spread.

7PM - Arizona is 3-3, but has lost multiple OT and two point heartbreakers. Tonight they are getting 8 points at less-than stellar Oklahoma. This line fluttered too far after Oklahoma laid the lumber to Arkansas. It looks good in the boxscore, but again, Arkansas has been combing the campus to find bodies to dress. It is akin to beating a low-major this year. Give me Nic Wise and Sean Miller's Cats to cover.

7:30PM - Touch this game at your own peril. Villanova takes their #3 ranking to take on the Terps in DC...and is laying only 2? Seems low, but would anyone be surprised to see Grevies Vasquez go off for like 27-8-8 today in an upset? I wouldn't. I think 'Nova should be laying more but am staying away from an official pick on this one.

SEASON RECORD: 21-12-1 ATS

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Worth a Second Look

We chronicled the litany of fantastic games on slate last night, and ran out of room before even tackling the late block. Here's a quick rundown on some of last night's interesting and impactful results.

There is real trouble brewing in Berkley. Cal's MSG losses to Ohio State and Syracuse were unimpressive, yet still understandable. Both of those teams are among the best in the country. ast night's 86-78 loss to New Mexico is cause for concern. New Mexico is 7-0 and a solid MWC team, but the Pac-10 has really struggled in the early going and this is yet another ding to the reputation and Cal's post-season resume. Could we be looking at this year's Notre Dame??

Gonzaga is tough. They trailed most of the way against in-state rival Washington State (6-0), but Matt Boldin and Co. fought back for the 74-69 win. First year coach Kevin Bone's Cougars almost did what his Portland State team did last year; knock off the Zags IN the Kennel.

Speaking of Portland State, what an enormous win for the Vikings last night, clipping newly ranked in-state rival Portland. Portland's coach said he wanted to see how they responded to the newly earned attention and acclaim... Um, might want to close your eyes for this one. They got dropped by the 2-4 Vikings by 18 points.

Lastly, the two best games of the night that nearly no one saw - Duquesne closed down the "Igloo" in memorable; if not gut-wrenching, fashion. The Dukes had the ball in a tie game with 9 seconds to go, and fumbled the ball out of bounds unguarded. They held on to force overtime...then a second one...but Pitt finally prevailed by nine in double OT. The Maniac wonders why they got so scared to attack the hoop once overtime arrived...it is a game they should have won.

The other, another double OT thriller with UNLV clipping Arizona 74-72. UNLV is a likely tourney team, and Arizona could have really used the win, especially with their brutal schedule continuing to churn on. The Cats are only 4-3, but anyone who has seen them play has to be impresses with the jobs Nic Wise and new coach Sean Miller are doing in Tuscon.

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Twenty Five Years and Runnin'

The Running Rebels take their newly earned national ranking on the road tonight to face Sean Miller's Arizona Wildcats. Much has been made of the inevitable demise of the nation's longest NCAA Tourney appearance streak... but hold on just a second.

The Wildcats are only 3-2, but looked potentially impressive in close losses to Vanderbilt and Wisconsin out in Maui. The Wildcats have a few more opportunities after tonight to pick up a few resume building wins with contests against Oklahoma, NC State and BYU yet to come. Factor in a winnable PAC 10 devoid of the six or seven Goliaths usually looming, and Arizona has legit hopes of keeping their absolutely remarkable streak alive.

Nic Wise and the 'Cats look to pick up a resume win tonight.

UNLV picked up a big resume win, taking down Louisville for the second straight year and gets another big chance tonight. With the Mountain West seemingly a little less powerful this year, every early win helps bolster the Runnin' Reb's case.

This is another game off the national radar, but one with far-reaching tourney shaping impact.

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Quick Viewing Guide to Maui Classic

A good tourney tips off today at 3PM with Gonzaga playing Colorado. Cincinnati/Vandy at 5:30, and the lat night games with host Chaminade playing Maryland at 9:30 and Arizona and Wisconsin at midnight-ish. All games will be live on ESPN2 except Maryland, which is on ESPNU and ESPNM 360.

For more info on the tourney, check out their official site here:

Maniac's Quick Take on an All-Tourney Team:
Matt Boldin (Gonzaga), Lance Stevenson (Cincy), Grevies Vasquez (Maryland), AJ Ogilvy (Vandy) and Nic Wise (Arizona)

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Quick Guide to Tipoff Tourneys - Maui

For me, it is simply a wonderful time for College Hoops; the smorgasboard of early season tournaments. It is a great chance to see the nation's elite teams retreat from the comfort of home and match up against other elite powers.

This year seems to have brought more marquee matchups than ever as Puerto Rico, Orlando, Cancun amd the Virgin Islands bring solid fields to join the usuals in Maui and New York.

Maui Invitational: Nov 23-25th

A field loaded with good, not great teams kicks off with a quadruple header on ESPN. Ned a reason to watch? 5 of the 8 teams have legit "bubble" written all over them and some would lump Gonzaga in as the 6th.

12:30 Colorado v. Gonzaga, followed by Cincinnati v. Vanderbilt
7 PM: Maryland v. Chaminade followed by Wisconsin v. Arizona

Nov 24th: 7PM: Md/Cham v. UC/Vandy, 9:30PM Gonz/Colo. v. Wisc/AZ

Nov 25th: Afernoon, 5th-8th, 7PM Consolation, 9:30 Championship

Maniac's Picks: Maryland over Cincinnati & Gonzaga over Wisconsin, Maryland cutting down the nets, Cincinnati winning the consolation game in a style-contrasting battle with Bo's Badgers.

More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Breaking Down the Midwest Region

Previewing the Midwest Region

Best First Round Game: West Virginia v. Dayton. The Flyers downed Big East foe Marquette earlier this year, utilizing their quickness and solid guard play. They are going to need every bit of it in order to tackle Bob Huggins' Mountaineers. West Virginia freshman Devin Ebanks has just begun to scratch the surface of his talent over the past three weeks and guard Alex Ruoff can shoot his team deep into the tourney.

Best Player: An easy argument could be made for Louisville's Terrance Williams, Wake Forest's Jeff Teauge and Kansas's duo of Sherron Collins and Cole Alderich, however the Maniac is going to go with an unlikely pair; Arizona's Jordan Hill and Chase Buddinger. For whatever reason (and there are a lot to choose from) things never quite clicked in Tuscon this year. If for some reason it finally does this weekend, it will be in large part because of these two future first-rounders. Either way, this combo makes Arizona one of the more talented #12's in recent memory.

Most important player: Edgar Sosa - Louisville. When the Cards struggled early, it was their guard play that plagued them. Sosa's role is far diminished from the role he played in the 2007 tourney (where he was sensational as a freshman, by the way), but it is still an important one. If he and the guards can control tempo and the basketball, Pitino's Cards look like the favorite to get to Detroit.

A couple runner-ups include Michigan State's Kalin Lucas, WVU's Alex Ruoff and USC's DeMarr Derozan.

Worst Seeding: Siena at a #9. I know, everyone loves the Saints (that's Siena's nickname by the way) and the tourney toughness from their tough schedule. Let's recap Siena's Top 50 wins. Ok, we're done. There aren't any. But clearly the strength of schedule propelled them to a #9 seed. Meanwhile Tennessee is also a #9, despite winning the SEC East, a down, but clearly superior league to Siena's and playing the nation's 2nd toughest schedule. Oh, and the Vols even WON a few of them. Siena should be an #11 at best, more likely a #12.

Toughest Break: Siena, once again. I think Ohio State beats them anywhere, anytime, anyway, but playing the game in Dayton where tens of thousands of Buckeye fans can make the hour drive is a pretty unwarranted advantage for OSU.

Possible 2nd Round Gem: How about Arizona versus Wake? That game would likely feature more future first-rounders than any other game in the tourney. Jordan Hill, Chase Buddinger, Jeff Teague, Al-Farouq Aminu and James Johnson,; they aren't all household names, but their talent is unquestionably immense.

Easiest to Root For: North Dakota State makes their first ever NCAA tourney appearance in their first season of eligibility. The Bison went 16-2 in the Summit Conference, and played USC tough earlier this season in Los Angeles. Don't be surprised if the Bison hang around long enough to rally some excitement in the crowd...and some tough flashbacks of Bison for Jayhawk fans...

Maniac's Sweet Sixteen Picks:
Louisville over Arizona, and Michigan State over West Virginia
Louisville beating the Spartans to head to Detroit

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Bubblin' Hot

Yep, it's all-bubble talk, all-day here at MM.com. Don't act like you don't like it!

One of the Maniac's bro-mances this year has been with Penn State and point guard Talor Battle. As a matter of fact, we flirted with sliding Penn State into "lock" status after their win at MSU and the troubles that have befallen Wisconsin and Michigan.

So what happens tonight?? Penn State scores TWENTY points in the second half, en route to a 20+ point loss to Michigan. That completes the season sweep of the Nittany Lions. Put that chip in Michigan's pile along with wins over Duke and UCLA, and the Nittany Lions need to significantly separate themselves from the Wolverines in order to dance. The Maniac would wager healthily that both will NOT get a punched Dance card.

Dunking Penn State makes the Big Ten one big, exciting mess.

Oh, throw in the Wisconsin easy win over Illinois and you once again have a giant jumbled Big Ten mess.

A week ago, dare I say, the Maniac predicted the resurecting run by the Arizona Wildcats. After their 3-point win tonight in Corvallis, only hapless Oregon stands in the way of the revivial coming to frution. It will be interesting to see whether the nation's longest active NCAA-appearance streak can live on for another year...

Seriously dude, stomp on MY face...

A couple good games to look up results for tomorrow: Gonzaga v. Portland, and Washington @ Cal...

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com
.

Many Roads...

Arizona put up 104 point in their dire straits win of Washington. Minnesota got a huge Big 10 win holding Illinois to 36 points. The difference? 68 points.

The result? One team keeps their season alive, the other is getting close to locking up their first tourney bid in several years.

- I am sure I am not the only one TiVoing the Zags/Gaels game tonight. Should be a great one. I'll take Gonzaga flexing their WCC muscle tonight, but keep an eye on Patty Mills. Had a chance to see him live in December; heckuva ballplayer.

Stomp to the Heart

None of their current players have ever been alive in a year in which Arizona was NOT a participant in the NCAA Tournament.

Of course, all that could change in a most unpleasant way for their roster if things don't turn around in a hurry. The Maniac thinks they just might.

I am sure you have all seen the Chase Budinger face-stomp recipient "highlight" by now. It has been played roughly four hundred thousand times on ESPN. What has been less discussed is the furious rally Arizona put together to improbably force overtime, then allow just two points in the OT defeating a pretty good Houston team.



Tonight the Wildcats (12-8, 2-5) host Pac-10 leader Washington in what amount to a last stand for Arizona. Drop this, and it is most likely curtains on the Wildcats season. But win, and things get interesting. After tonight their next three games are: hosting Washington State, then traveling to both Oregon schools. All three are very winnable games. That would leave Arizona at 16-8 and 6-5 in conference and RIGHT in the at-large bid mix.

Of course, it all starts with a win tonight. Can they play with the passion and fury they mustered when their star was stomped on? Can they harness that same desperation for a moment when it is truly warranted?

I like the 'Cats and their two NBA-first rounders salvaging a disappointing season with an upset win over the Huskies tonight.

MANIACS PICK: Arizona 74 - Washington 67

.

Wake Up Calls: Making Sense of a Wacky Wednesday

The headlines will all be clamoring about the "huge upset" of #1 Wake Forest. Don't let that fool you. Yes, Wake has been playing great ball, but by no means was this the construct of a team built to run the table. When Carolina fell at BC, Indiana's 32-year stranglehold on perfection remained safe.

If nothing else, last night's Virginia Tech victory told us two things; One, the ACC is good. Expect 6 or 7 teams to dance. Virginia Tech is in that mix, and last night's win helped advance that cause. Their record isn't stellar, but look at some of their losses (an OT loss to Xavier in Puerto Rico on a 50-foot buzzer beater). Two, parity is king this season. Last year all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four for the first time. Don't expect a repeat this season.

Relax Dino, It's Gonna be that kinda year...

Case in point; Arkansas defeated two Top Ten Big 12 frontrunners. The Hogs are now 0-3 in a "down" SEC. Boston College slayed UNC in shocking fashion. They then turned around and lost to Harvard. BC is at best a long shot to make the field of 65.

It is going to be a roller coaster ride to the finish, but as Dickie V so incessantly reminds us. "at least we find out the champion on the court."

Amen Dickie.

Wednesday Recap:

Clemson's pasting in Chapel Hill told the nation what Tiger fans were hoping to suppress; "here we go again." The Tigers were ranked as high as ninth, deservedly so, but after their past two less-than-impressive performances against the conference big boys their reputation takes a huge ding. Not only that, but if they suffer a few losses to the likes of Va Tech, NC State, Miami and FSU, "bubble" talk might be appropriate in Clemson.

How in the hell did Florida lose that game?? If you haven't seen it yet, check out the youtube clip. For South Carolina, it keeps their tourney hopes buoyant, as the SEC West looks dreadful, it is not impossible to sneak in four from the east...


The Mountain West is the best of the non-BCS conferences, however their balanced parity is going to cost them bids in March. UNLV pulled off a road win at BYU last night. Both of them appear to be in decent shape to dance, despite being unranked, but New Mexico, Utah and TCU will all provide tough competition to the end. The beatings they are giving each other could drive them all down to around 9-10 conference wins. That would necessitate winning the confernce tournament to enjoy a stress-free Selction Sunday. For the rest, that is an NIT equation.

Arizona is screwed. Last night's come-from-ahead loss to instate rival Arizona State dropped the Cats to 2-5 in Pac 1o play and a long way from the bubble. The rebuilding has officially begun, only it doesn't really seem as if "rebuilding" is the proper term. "Chaos" seems more apropos. I bet Brandon Jennings is ecstatic he (couldn't get admitted) chose to play overseas... I feel badly for Chase Buddinger. He is playing really well in what appears to be a historically poor season in Tuscon when he easily could have left for the NBA last season.

The A-10 might be Xavier and the dozen dwarfs, but the games are crazy exciting. Two more went to overtime last night, with Duquesne dropping a nail-biter to St. Joes 99-98, and Charlotte nipping UMass in OT. Add in Rhode Island losing by three at Richmond and you have one heck of a balanced league. And of course, just one NCAA bid.

The SEC West is winnable at 9-7. LSU pasted 3-0 Mississippi State last night. Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss are all over the place, and who knows what to make of Arkansas. In a year of parity, their is no better example of the grab-bag between #20 and #50 in the country than in the SEC West.

The MVC has a lot of good teams. However they appear to lack a great one. I wonder if the balance in the Big 10, ACC and depth in the Big East will leave two or three sitting on the sidelines in March. Illinois State, Creighton and Evansville appeared to be the strongest early on (with some consideration for Drake as well), however Northern Iowa has stormed out to a 7-1 conference record and a two-game lead on the field. The problem? They had five losses before entering conference play. Only Marquette was ranked (the others, Iowa,Iowa St, Illinois-Chicago and Wyoming). Not exactly the way to get multiple bids for a non BCS league. The MVC's conference tournament will not only be great basketball, but very meaningful hoops as well.

And how about the Northwestern Wildcats? They rewarded the Maniac's proclamation that the Minnesota loss to Northwestern was not a "bad loss" but rather a "good win" for a good Northwestern team with a road victory over conference-unbeaten Michigan State. With their next two contests against Michigan and Indiana, it is not ridiculous to think Northwestern could put themselves squarely in NCAA Tourney conversation. If you are scoring at home the Wildcats now have wins over Florida State, Minnesota and Michigan State, three teams likely dancing in March.

And as much as we have had some bumps and bruises since it first appeared likely... the dream of the February 11th #1 vs. #2 Duke - Carolina shootout still seems possible.

So much for parity...

Show-Me Games of the Week

These games will give us some separation at the top and upper-echelon of some tough conferences.

Tuesday:

Ohio St @ Illinois - Both teams enter in the 20-30 range in most polls and 3-2 in Big Ten play. I think both teams will Dance, but this game could loom large when their resumes go side-by-side.

Wednesday:

Villanova @ UConn - Nova is 2-2 in conference with a trip to UConn looming. Villanova sits on the precarious spot of being the "ninth" team in the nation's deepest and biggest conference. No conference has ever gotten nine bids in March. I wouldn't want to be the one hoping that UNLV or Crieghton or George Mason haven't captured the committee's wandering Cinderella eyes...

Clemson @ UNC -Fifty three times... wow. I am sure you have heard/read the stat many times by now. Clemson brings one of their better teams into Chapel Hill... and still leaves with number fifty four.

Arizona St. @ Arizona - Mayday! Mayday! The Cats are in real trouble. At 2-4 in Pac-10 play and 11-7 overall, it is going to take somelike a win over in-state rival ASU to revitalize a moribund season and keep the nation's longest active NCAA Tourney appearance streak alive.


Thursday:

Minnesota @ Purdue - The conference's best surprise meets the conference's biggest dissapointment. Funny, both have 2 conference losses. The winner take a big step forward in the race to chase Michigan State for the conference crown.

Saturday:

Memphis @ Tennessee - This year lacks the zip of last year's #1 vs #2 Holy War, but still packs some importance. Memphis has one last chance to pick up a resume builder before fattening up on C-USA fluff. Tennessee gets a chance to pick up a much needed non-conference win for the much-maligned, but perhaps just late blooming, SEC.

UCLA @ Washington - The Huskies might be the biggest sleeper in the country, with NBA-quality big man John Brockton and a 4-1 conference record. The winner moves into first place in the Pac-10.

Xavier @ LSU - same drill as the above Memphis v. Tennessee analysis. LSU needs the win a little more desperatly, as their resume is blank and their early SEC play hasn't been good. Xavier can ill-afford another slip-up if they have aspirations of holding a Top 4 seed in March.

Guide to the Best Hoops Day of the Year!

...excluding the tourney of course.

Saturday is a smorgasbord of big-time games. I am sure most hoop fans are well aware that UConn travels out to Seattle to tackle Gonzaga and that Duke and Xavier will meet in the Meadowlands. However, there are a dozen of more games on Saturday worth catching.

Miami (OH) @ West Virginia - WVU has played some decent foes already, and lost to them. Kentucky held them to 43 points and Steph Curry rallied to beat them in th last two minutes in the Garden. Miami (OH) has three losses. To UCLA, Pitt & Xavier. Suffice it to say they will not be intimidated by the Moutaineers.

Duke vs. Xavier (Meadowlands, NJ) - A really intersting and fantastic game. For a complete breakdown, click here.

Michigan St @ Texas - Michigan State has been dissapointing early, failing their only true test of the season miserably (losses to Maryland and UNC by 18 & 35 respectivly). Texas slepwalked through closer-than-expected wins over hapless instate foes Texas Southern, and Texas St. A win in this game keeps Texas on pace with Oklahoma on the One Line come selection Sunday. A win for Michigan St. rights the ship heading into Big Ten play.

Louisville @ Minnesota - Minnesota is unbeaten so far. Conisder them 0-0 going into this one. Lousiville brings Tubby's Gophers their first true test. With a win, the should be ranked for Christmas. A loss? In the eyes of most true college hoops fans, they are 0-1.

Temple @ Kansas - Kansas already has one loss to A-10 foe UMass. Temple will look to add a second.

Arizona @ UNLV - The Wildcats are fresh off their upset win over Gonzaga. UNLV has flown under the radar for the past few years, but Lon Kreuger seems to always have a tough squad come March. Arizona entered the season in turmoil; coaching upheaval, Brandon Jennings in Europe, BUT don't overlook the talent on this squad. This game seems like a perfect 7-10 NCAA tourney game to me.

Davidson @ Purdue (Indianapolis, IN) - Is Purdue the Final Four contender people thought entering the season, or are they the team that was emasculated by Duke on their home floor? Davidson is in year two of dragon-slaying. They have been so good in that role that they won't be big underdogs in this one.

Providence @ Boston College - Two middle of the pack teams from major conferences collide in a game that means a ton to each schools slim post season chances.

LSU @ Texas A&M - LSU takes a break from their brutal SWAC confernce schedule to play a fellow BCS school. A&M has already beaten Arizona, but it is really tough to project what they will be facing when LSU plays it's first real game of the year.

BYU @ Arizona St. - GREAT game under the radar. Both of these team feature NBA first-rounders in James Harden and Lee Cummard. Both teams need a solid resume building win to play in the 4-6 saeed range. BUY enters 10-0, Arizona St with just the one defeat to Baylor (though the needed overtime to beat IUPUI by one in their last contest).

Syracuse @ Memphis - For a team that lives off it's non-conference success to validate its lackluster conference strength, Memphis has missed a few golden opportunities this year, but gets another one when the Orange come to town. They have already lost tough games to Xavier and Georgetown. This is likely their last chance to beat a ranked foe this season. Without that win, even if the run the C-USA table, it is hard to see them any better than a #4 come March.

Florida @ UCF - On paper, a total mismatch, but this game means a LOT more to UCF than it does the Gators. The Gators appear to be a little better on paper than in practice, and expect UCF to give their absolute best in this one. This is my longshot upset special of the day.

Iowa @ Drake - Drake is coming off the best (and first decent) season in three decades. Tonight the get a shot to show in-state giant Iowa that they are still here to play.

VCU @ Oklahoma - This is exactly the kind of preparation Oklahoma needs for the Big Dance. VCU is tough, scrappy, experienced and not afraid of Oklahoma. Oklahoma SHOULD win, but the question is, will they bring their A game against a smaller-name opponent?

Bracketeering - Dec 14th

An exciting weekend of college hoops, capped with an "upset" win by Arizona over Gonzaga in Phoenix. I say "upset" simply as an ironic tip-of-the-cap to the mighty Zags. Who would have ever thought a near-home win over Big West Gonzaga would be a storm-the-floor type win for the mighty Wildcats.

Despite all the upheaval in Tuscon, expect the Wildcats to extend the longest NCAA Tourney streak in Div. I come March.

That said, let's digg into Week 4 of Bracketeering!

Share on Facebook

FINAL FOUR:

1. UNC - Not much else to say at this point, but kudos in advance to Tyler Hansbrough, who should pass Phil Ford as UNC's all time leading scorer Thursday night in Chapel Hill.

2. Oklahoma - A solid win over Utah continues to build an impressive resume for the Sooners. Could they be the first program in NCAA history to have the player of the year in football and basketball?

3. UConn- They had the week off. Hopefully to stew on the poor performance at Buffalo. A big date on the 20th in Seattle versus the Zags should be enough to keep them focused.

4. Texas- I know, I know, why does Pitt drop? Because poles are for strippers. We use the eye-test herr (for rankings, not for strippers...well...) Texas has been electric and tested. The win over Villanova in the Garden was impressive enough to overlook the closer-than expected win over Texas State.

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Pitt - Call me when Pitt laces 'em up in January. I think they are very good, but we will have to wait and find out for sure. I know when LaVance Fields is in the lineup, they rarely lose. Then again over the past three weeks, they tackled heavyweights like Vermont (Tyler Coppenrath is two years gone, fellow junkies) and UMBC. Way to stretch yourself Panthers.

6. Duke - What an incredible rare treat looming next Saturday when Duke and Xavier team up in the Meadowlands. A win positions the Dukies to creep back into the Top 5 and stay in the #1 seed dscussion.

7. Xavier - Deep, balanced and incredibly well coached. Have the Muskies reached the point where this could be a destination for Sean Miller rather than a stepping stone? X fans sure hope so.

8. Gonzaga - The gauntlet finally got them. It is probably too stiff a penalty dropping the Zags all the way to #8, but they get a chance to bounce way back up when they meet the #2 Huskies in Key Arena Saturday at 4PM.

Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)

9. Louisville - probably still one of the top 5 teams in the nation. That loss to Western Kentucky could be a distant memory in a few more weeks.

10. Ohio St - forget the national polls. This team has consecutive victories over Miami (FL), Notre Dame and Butler. And is undefeated.

11. Syracuse - Can't penalize them for the Devendorf uncertainty (yet). Unblemishe and an uncharacteristically solid schedule.

12. Wake Forest - Is the ACC the Big 3? Wake Forest and lead guard stud Jeff Teague think so. We are starting to believe them.

13. Georgetown - A good RPI-resume builder with Saturday's OT win over Memphis. However, the game showed me some weaknesses that might prove costly when Big East play begins.

14. Davidson - Another reason polls are for strippers, not real basketball fans. If they were in a power conference with their early season resume they'd be no lower than 12th. Instead, they lag behind Notre Dame, UCLA, Arizona St, Michigan St, and several other teams that haven't earned it on the floor yet.

15. Purdue - The Duke game still stings the memory, but this is still a good ballclub that will contend in the better-than-people-realize Big 10 (expect 5, and as many as 7 bids come March).

16. Michigan - I came real close to moving UCLA back in - then thought of WHO their losses were too... oh yeah, MICHIGAN. The Wolverines remain for another week.


Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Michigan St, Memphis, Wichita St, Western Kentucky (look at the losses other than the LVille win), Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and I keep on piling on the SEC....

Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on
Clemson, Missouri, Illinois, Butler, VMI, Illinois-Chicago, Evansville, East Carolina,

Intriguing...Now Come Out and Play! (Nice starts, but play someone already!)

Minnesota (10-0) - Georgia St, Virginia, Bowling Green (yes, those are their "best" wins)

Stanford (5-0) - Air Force, Colorado, Colorado St. (that's right, you're my bitch Colorado!)

LSU (7-0) - This list is simply awesome, I shall post it in it's entirety: Troy, Centenary, CSU Fullerton, Jackson St, Alcorn St, Grambling St, Northwestern St. (3-0 vs. the SWAC!!)

Don't Laugh - It'd be the toughest game on their schedule!

UABominable

For those of you who caught the end of the Arizona - UAB game last night, you witnessed a true meltdown in non-game knowledge that Donavan McNabb would be impressed by!

After scoring the tying bucket with 22 seconds to go, Arizona freshman Kyle Fogg inexplicably rushed to immediately foul the inbound recipient from UAB. He thought they were still losing.

Oops. Perhaps he thought he was the Geico Caveman. Those newfangled scoreboards are tricky contraptions.

It gets better. Fogg's "strategy" prevailed, as UAB missed the front end of the 1&1, and Arizona corralled the rebound for a chance to win. After a Nic Wise missed jumper, Paul Delany rebounded and aimed for a 70-foot Hail Mary heave.

But was fouled. Intentionally. From behind with a full-extension lunging psuedo-tackle by Arizona's Jamelle Horne. The announcers attributed the loss to the confusion, perhaps because Lute Olsen's sudden retirement. They blamed the confusion on coaching.

That could be it. I am sure their replacement coach never bothered to instruct his players not to intentionally foul 70 feet away from the basket in the final second of a tied ballgame!

Bad coaching indeed. Wait... Maybe that is on the player! Ya' think?!?

Arizona boasts one of the nation's longest streak of consecutive NCAA tourney appearances at 19. Many speculated that streak is in jeopardy this year. I disagree. Chase Buddinger has improved a ton mentally...but he is going to need some smarter play around him to salvage a season very early on the brink.

"Help me help you. Help ME Help YOU."

lousy video quality - but can be viewed here

Tournament Day One Musings

Day One - Finally, some Madness

• I know Belmont played a great game and gave it a good run... but why is no one mentioning how ludicrous that inbounds play was?? Who draws up a backdoor alley-oop when you are smaller, slower and weaker at every position on the floor? I'd much rather see a double screen for a nice 18 footer off the elbow, but that's just me...
  

• Anyone catch Arizona v WVU? Arizona gets my vote for most disappointing team in 2008. Chase Buddinger is the next Josh McRoberts. Every time he takes the floor, his draft stock drops further. This guy was a projected lottery pick??

• Kansas State is legit. Looking WAY to far down the brackets, interesting possibility looming for Beasley, Walker and company. Manhattan? Check. Lawrence? Not Quite. Africa? Doesn't look like that one will make the schedule, BUT Beasley could get a chance to tackle the 'Hawks to punch a dance ticket to the Final Four.

• Duke is in real trouble. West Virginia by 12 on Saturday.

• How about the Big East? 4-0 yesterday, with Louisville, Georgetown and UCONN prohibitive favorites today. If Villanova can "upset" Clemson, it will be a perfect 8-0 for the BIG East.
  

• Meanwhile the Pac-10 looked a little lackluster. For a conference supposedly as deep and balanced as any in the nation, evenly slotted teams in Kansas St and West Virginia make the Pac-10 look a little pedestrian.

• When in doubt? Put your money on the team with the BEST PLAYER on the floor. With only 1 exception (Kentucky, Joe Crawford) the team with the best player on the floor won. Michael Beasley, Luke Harangody, Joe Alexander, etc.

• This bodes well for team today like: Western Kentucky (Courtney Lee), Villanova (Scottie Reynolds), and Butler (Mike Brown). Enjoy a great Day Two!