Previewing the Southeast Region

On paper, the Southeast has been called the weakest of the four regions, however, that just means it is one of the trickiest to predict. Pitt appears to have an easier path than any of the other four #1 seeds, due largely to the ridiculous over-seeding of the Florida Gators and the weakening of the BYU Cougars due to the suspension of leading rebounder and best defender, Brandon Davies.

Wisconsin and Kansas State are interesting teams looking in the potential 4 vs 5 game, as both have taken down number one seeds this season; Ohio State and Kansas respectively. Meanwhile #6 seed St. John’s, despite a bevy of losses, has beaten more Top Ten teams than anyone else in the field.

In the higher seeds, last year’s tourney darling Butler seems to have righted the ship and can’t be considered an easy-out for the occasionally offensively-challenged Pitt Panthers. And Butler can’t look past their first-round opponent, Old Dominion. The Monarchs upset Notre Dame in the first round last year, holding Notre Dame’s senior star Luke Harangody to a career-low two points in the process. ODU is as good defensively as any team in the region, including Pitt, and could be a very difficult matchup in the second round.

Three double-digit seed dangers make their home in the Southeast region as well; Gonzaga, Utah State and Wofford all have significant tournament experience and a roster full of veterans, savvy ballhanders and enough sharp-shooters to spring first round upsets.

It’s going to be an exciting region, even if the names don’t pop off the page like they do in the East and West. Let’s take a look at some first round matchups, as well as who is going to advance, and eventually who will be cutting down the nets and making their way to Houston.

Ten Best Players in the Southeast Region:
Ashton Gibbs (Pitt), Brad Wanamaker (Pitt), Jordan Taylor (Wisconsin), John Lauer (Wisconsin), Jacob Pullen (Kansas State), Jimmer Fredetter (BYU), Chandler Parsons (Florida), Kalin Lucas (Michigan State), Dwight Hardy (St. John’s), Frank Hassel (ODU),

First Round Matchups:

#1 Pitt vs. #16 Ark Little Rock/UNC Asheville

In the top half of the bracket, Pitt should have little difficulty dispatching the winner of the Arkansas Little Rock v. UNC Asheville winner. They then face the winner of one of the best first-round games, a mid-major battle between Butler and Old Dominion.

#8 Butler v. #9 Old Dominion

I like the Monarchs stifling defense giving Butler fits. The Bulldogs had some magic last year, but it might have left early along with Gordon Hayward. ODU finished 27-6 and won the ultra-competitive Colonial Tournament. They won non-conference games over Clemson, Richmond and Xavier; all NCAA Tournament teams.

#5 Kansas State v. #12 Utah State

Utah State will be the popular upset pick, but let me caution you against betting against Jacob Pullen and the Wildcats. Kansas State is far to athletic for the Aggies, who have no answer for Pullen and the stable of long, athletic bigs Kansas State brings to the party. Utah State is a good shooting team, and has the potential to get hot from three and spring the upset, but I think Kansas State is head and shoulders better than Utah State and should roll in the first round.

#4 Wisconsin v. #13 Belmont

Wisconsin has been a consistent high-seed, thanks in large part to their incredible performance in the Kohl Center. It inflates their record and gives them a few marquee wins. This year is no exception, as they knocked off Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois, all in dominant fashion. However away from home they lost to those same teams, as well as UNLV and Notre Dame. In fact, other than Marquette they didn’t beat an NCAA Tournament team away from home all season.

Belmont has been sniffing the upset for quite some time, most notably their near-win over #2 Duke three seasons ago. They finished 30-4, and almost knocked off Tennessee in Knoxville, falling 66-65. I think this is the year they finally get their tournament win, in my Southeast Upset Special – Belmont Bruins over Wisconsin.

#6 St. John’s v #11 Gonzaga

This is my other first-round upset special. I like the poise and size of Gonzaga knocking off the erratic, but talented St. John’s Red Storm. Did you see the way St. John’s handled pressure situations in the Big East Tourney?? They may be a senior-laden ball club, but they aren’t a tourney-experienced ball club. Gimme the Zags rekindling some of the Cinderella magic that first put them on the map.

#3 BYU v. #14 Wofford

Wofford is nothing if not battle tested. The Terriers faced one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country, playing Minnesota, Clemson, Xavier, George Mason, Georgetown and VCU. They beat Mason and took Xavier to three overtimes before falling, but the losses laid a foundation for a great Southern Conference season.

BYU has endured the much-publicized suspension of forward Brandon Davies, but still has a guy names Jimmer Fredette pulling the strings. Wofford is going to put one heckuva scare into BYU, but in the end, I like Jimmer prevailing through to round 2.

#7 UCLA v. #10 Michigan State

Another fantastic first round match-up, an odd place for these two schools who have dominated the tourney for much of the last decade to be meeting up. UCLA is the higher seed, but Michigan State is the better team. Kalin Lucas should be able to control tempo, and as long as the Spartans shots don’t go ice cold, as they have on more than a few occasions this season, they should be able to get past UCLA.

#2 Florida v. #15 UC Santa Barbara

Florida is ridiculously over-seeded at a #2, but they should still advance though this game with little trouble. Plus, the game is in St. Pete, a virtual home game for the Gators whose fans should be attending en masse.

Moving Through the Region:

I like Pittsburgh getting past a tough ODU team, and meeting up with Kansas State in the Sweet 16. In the bottom half of the bracket, I’m going with complete chaos – Florida getting stunned at “home” by a resurgent Michigan State team and Gonzaga clipping the BYU Cougars.

In the Elite 8, I’ll take Pitt and Michigan State with Pitt cutting down the nets and heading off to Houston. I am reluctant to pick Pitt in an NCAA Tournament, given their perilous history of underperforming in March, but as the already-weak bracket falls apart all around them, it’s hard not to pick the Panthers to advance. Their biggest obstacle would be their Sweet 16 game with Kansas State, who has both the talent and tournament experience to knock them off.

SOUTHEAST CHAMP: PITT PANTHERS

UPSET PICKS:
Gonzaga, Michigan State and Belmont

Michigan State is a Disappointment - But Should it be THAT Shocking?

There is no question that 13-9 and on the outside of the bubble is an unusual and disappointing predicament for Tom Izzo and his Spartans.  He, and they, afterall, are one of the premier templates for consistent excellence in college basketball.

But should their less than stellar play be as big of a shock as it is being received as?

Here is an alternative viewpoint to consider.  Last year Michigan State entered the NCAA tournament at a solid 24-8, but only a 5th seed.  To place it in a different context, that would have them somewhere between the 17th and 20th best team in the country.

State's road through the NCAA Tourney was equally precarious.  In the first round, they barely dodged a big upset, slipping past #12 seed New Mexico State 70-67.  In the second round, an even more daring escape, when a desperate buzzer-beating three by Korie Lucious found the bottom of the net.  The shot was intentional, but Lucious receiving the ball certainly wasn't - a freak deflection/pass landed his way and Korie, to his credit seized the spotlight.  The Spartans won 85-83 and survived and advanced.

If this shot doesn't fall...

Korie Lucious has since been permanently dismissed from the team for an unspecified third violation of team conduct.

The Sweet Sixteen got even sweeter for the Spartans when Northern Iowa stunned top team in the country Kansas, knocking the biggest obstacle in that half of the bracket to the wayside.  Sparty took advantage of their good fortune by beating the upstart Panthers 59-52.

The Elite Eight?  Well, maybe "elite" is too grand a term in this instance.  After the bottom half of the bracket fell apart as well with Ohio State and Evan Turner and Georgetown bowing out, suddenly the "best region ever" looked a lot less daunting.  Sixth seeded Tennessee advanced to meet Michigan State with a trip to Indy on the line.  Again, more heart-palpitating last second moments smiled the way of Sparty, as they advanced with 70-69 win.

Next stop, the Final Four. In a game that set big time college basketball back to the pre-shot clock era, the Spartans finally bowed out 52-50 to Butler.

Suppose for a second that either of those first round games broke the other way with a different last-second moment of good fortune?  Would Michigan State have entered this season in the Top 5?  Top 10 even?

This season is no doubt been a disappointment.  It's just that perhaps some of the disappointment should also be shared by those of us in the prognostication business as well...

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Trouble Bubblin'? Michigan State Among Teams on the Slide

It's February, so all college hoops fans know the word de juor from here on out - that of course being the dreaded "bubble."  Nearly every conference is about at the halfway point and most teams across the country are gearing up for that all important (though the committee claims it officially doesn't matter...) ten game stretch run to the end of the season.

Should have set a wake-up call

In our first bubble update, we're going to focus on some teams who are sliding the wrong way.  There were more than a few of them tonight.

Baylor had a weird circumstance today, as their game was moved up to an early afternoon tip-off due to last night's contest in Norman being postponed by bad weather.  Perhaps someone should have told the Bears to get up a little early... They looked horribly flat and took a potentially devastating loss, 73-66 to Oklahoma.  The loss dropped Baylor to 14-7 (4-4).

It's odd to see Memphis lose a game in Conference USA.  It's really odd to see them suffer their second straight loss, on their home floor, to another opponent with no chance of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team.  But that's exactly what happened tonight.  The Tigers stole the ball with eight seconds to play and had two attempts at an overtime-forcing three, but when the second attempt clanged off the rim Tulsa escaped with a 68-65 win.  Memphis falls to 16-6 (5-3) and in some real danger of missing the tourney for a second straight year.

Kudos to Tom Crean and his suddenly competitive Hoosiers.  However, bad news for Minnesota who finds themselves back on the familiar bubble after dropping a should-win, even on the road, to IU.  Tubby's Gophers are still ranked in the Top 25, but at 16-6, and 5-5 in the Big Ten with upcoming games against Ohio State and Illinois, the Gophers are not on nearly as solid footing as one might think.

We feel your pain Tom...

Lastly, it's hard to even quantify the disaster that is coming to life to Tom Izzo and his Spartans.  Ranked in the Top 5 in the nation early in the season, things might have hit rock bottom tonight with their twenty point blowout loss at lowly Iowa.  It is only the second conference win on the season for the Hawkeyes, who climb to 9-13 with the win.


Michigan State failed to do something that South Dakota State accomplished to start this season; win in Carver-Hawkeye Arena.  It's beyond panic time in East Lansing.  With the loss the Spartans fall to 13-9, (5-5).  More troubling than their record, which is given some leeway with the tremendous strength of schedule, is their recent play.  The Spartans are 2-5 over the last seven games, with losses to three of the four worst teams in the conference; Iowa, Michigan and Penn State, and one of their two wins an overtime escape against the other cellar-dweller, Indiana.

Any responsible bracket projection done today has to exclude the Spartans, as bizarre as that is to type.  With two of their next three games AT Wisconsin (where no one ever wins)  and @ Ohio State (who is #1 in the nation) it is all but last-call for Sparty and their nearly two-decade long run of tourney appearances.

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Familiar Faces in Unfamiliar Places

Over the past ten or fifteen years there have been a few things relatively automatic when it comes to the NCAA Tournament.  Someone seeded #13 or higher will capture the nation's fancy by delivering the miracle moment that has made the NCAA Tournament (along with gambling in office pools) the magical nation-captivating event it is.  Two or three teams and coaches (see: Seth Greenberg, Jim Boeheim) will whine about the unjustness of their snub from the field.  And Michigan State, Gonzaga and Butler will be somewhere in the Field of 64 (or 65).

The first two are still almost givens.  The last?  Difficult as it may be to process, is far from a given this season

Michigan State is reaching the time of the season when Coach Izzo traditionally begins circling the wagons and gear his Spartans up for their magical run at the Final Four.  After last night's stunning home loss to Michigan, the Spartans are in real jeopardy of being excluded from the field all together.  Their schedule has been as brutal as always; with four preconference losses to Connecticut, @Duke, @Syracuse and Texas.  Not only are those not bad losses, it wouldn't be surprising if those four teams comprised the Final Four.

Sparty's recent losses to Penn State and Michigan are the cause for pause.  The Spartans record is now just 12-8 and 4-4 in Big Ten play.  They still have trips remaining to Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State and Wisconsin and visits from Purdue and Ohio State.  For arguements sake, let's say they beat all the teams they are supposed to, and fail to win more than one or two of the aforementioned tricky games.  That would leave the Spartans at 17-13 or 18-12.  If they were to lose the opener in the Big Ten tourney, their spot on the bubble would be quite a precarious one.

Gonzaga and Butler also have a hill to climb over the next four weeks if they plan on continuing their "major conference" reputations, despite playing in mid-major leagues. 

Last night Mickey McConnell's buzzer beating runner gave St. Mary's their first win in Spokane in fifteen years.  The loss dropped Gonzaga to just 13-8 and a surprising 3-3 in the WCC.  St. Mary's now leads the Zags by three full games in the conference and all but ended Gonzaga''s decade-long stranglehold on the conference crown.  The Zags should go no worse than 8-2 down the stretch which would have them at 21-10, and likely safe.  However there is little room for another "bad loss" like the one they surrended to San Fransisco earlier this week.  February 5th's visit from Memphis will be absolutely enormous for both teams in their fight to make the tourney.

It's a very similar situation for Butler.  They got a little help when Valpo suffered a surprising loss to drop to 7-2, pulling Butler one game back in the loss column, behind Valpo and Cleveland State.  Butler, like the Zags played a brutal non-conference schedule.  They have quality losses to Xavier, Duke and Louisville.  Those don't hurt too badly.  However conferences losses to Wright State and being swept by middle of the pack Milwaukee shrinks the Bulldogs remaining margin for error.

My gut feel is that all three make the tourney, but it is going to be a very interesting, and nerve-racking final month of the season for all three.

Big Ten: Mid Season Conference Round Up

The Big Ten entered the season thought to be one of the nation's elite conferences, and they've done little to dispel the notion thus far.  If anything, the recent stellar play of Penn State and the at least occasional displays of competence by Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern, make the Big Ten as deep top-to-bottom as any league in the country.

At the midpoint, it is safe to assume an absolute minimum of five NCAA Tourney bids, with a sixth being highly likely and a seventh being a remote, but unlikely possibility.

Here's where we stand so far:

LOCKS: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin
SHOULD BE IN:  Minnesota
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY: Northwestern, Penn State
NO SHOT:  Michigan. Indiana, Iowa

Ohio State is #1 in the country and shows no signs of slowing down.  Tonight's visit from Purdue will be a nice test for the Buckeyes coming off their emotional win Saturday in Champagne.  They have the inside/outside balance needed for a deep run to the Final Four and more.  They won't run the table, and could even lose tonight to Purdue, but I'd be surprised if they drop more than three or four games all year.  Expect the Buckeyes to be a #1 seed in March.

Purdue is an interesting case.  People have focused so much on who they are missing (Robbie Hummel) they've overlooked two All-American candidates they do have in E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson.  The senior inside/out combo is as good as any pair in the country and give Purdue the core to make a run at the Final Four.  I've liked this team all season - and they are only getting better as their role players begin to get some confidence and court time.  They could end up as high as a #1 seed with a nice run to win the Big Ten, but more likely settle in around the #3 line.

It's almost February, so that must mean it is time for Michigan State to start turning it on in preparation for March.  Tom Izzo has perfected the "Final Four run from a 3 or 4 seed" act many times, and might just do it again this year.  The Spartans certainly have the talent to be a top seed, but like Purdue, likely settle around the #3 line.

Illinois is another team with the personnel to make a deep run in March.  Their record suggests I should have them slotted behind Minnesota and Wisconsin, but Illinois gets the "lock" nod due to who they have played and lost to.  Losses to Texas, Missouri and Wisconsin away from home shouldn't drop the Illini too far in the committee's eyes.  They'll still likely endure a handfull of losses, but should have a strong enough body of work to land safely in the 4/5 seed range.

Wisconsin strikes again.  They don't have NBA talent loading up their roster like some of their Big Ten counterparts, but all Bo Ryan and his Badgers do is win win win no matter what.  Currently 5-2 in conference, the Badgers are in position to finish second in arguably the top league in the country.  Trips to Ohio State and Purdue still loom, but the Badgers propensity to hammer lesser opponents (including this weekend 32-point drubbing of Northwestern) serves them favorably for an 11 or 12 win season and as high as a #3 seed, but no certainly no worse than a #5 seed in March.

Minnesota is all but a lock, but their lack of marquee wins means they still need to hold up over the rigors of Big Ten play. Early neutral court wins over North Carolina and West Virginia help, but the real bulk of their Big Ten schedule is still to come.  The 3-point loss at Ohio State is encouraging, as is the home win over Purdue.  They only have four games left in conference against the "Top 5" so their home and homes with Northwestern and Indiana are vital to sweep.  My call - Minnesota lands around a #6 seed.


What to make of Northwestern?  They looked good in blowout wins over Indiana, Iowa and Michigan - as well as in tight three and four point losses against Michigan State.  This is also the team that took a 32-point drubbing by Wisconsin and a 25-point loss at Illinois.  Simply put?  The Wildcats are just OK - not terrible, yet nowhere close to the class of the Big Ten's elite.  That likely earns them a seventh place finish and yet another berth in the NIT.

Penn State is another team that is likely not making the Big Dance, but man are they giving teams fits in conference play.  The are only 3-4 in league play, but an impressive 3-4 it is; they own wins over Michigan State and Illinois and two road losses to Ohio State by just three and Purdue on a last-second buzzer beater, 63-62.  Those are their four most recent games.  So - does that great play translate into wins over the bottom half of the conference?  If it does, it isn't unreasonable to think Penn State could sneak up to 9-9, possibly even better in conference.  It may not be enough to get them to the tourney in Talor Battle's senior year, but the Nittany Lions are sure going to make things interesting.

Indiana fans surely must be growing impatient.  It's now year three of the Tom Crean Era, and there is little evidence of progress.  At least Hoosier fans can take solace knowing their good friends in Lexington were in the exact same spot three years ago and their rebuilding took Coach Cal about 45 minutes and four phone calls... The Hoosiers are simply outclassed in Big Ten play.  They lack the size, the scoring, the depth - basically everything needed to compete.  Even the NIT is a stretch for IU. Consider Crean on the clock next season.

Michigan is a program that continues to perplex me.  They have tradition, facilities, resources, a good coach; yet they continue to flounder on the edge of irrelevance.  They gave Kansas a heck of a fight earlier this year, showing some signs of life, but at 1-6 in conference with trips to Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota still remaining Michigan is looking a terrible conference season, and an overall sub-.500 season squarely in the face.  If not for the relative failures of the two coaches who preceded him, I'd say Beilein has reason to be nervous... and actually still might.

The pen is mightier than the team...

If one were taking the "Big Ten" exactly at its name's value, Iowa would be the school you would forget to include.  This once-proud basketball program continues to flounder at the bottom of the league with very little sign of digging itself up off the mat.  The Hawkeyes are just 8-11 (1-6) and have losses to powerhouses like South Dakota State and Long Beach State on their resume.  No postseason for these guys - this year - or anytime soon... Paging Dr. Tom Davis...Dr. Davis...

Michigan State Rallies for Huge Overtime Win

Excuse to get Sparty some face time.

Wow - ignore the comment in my earlier article about Michigan State dropping to 0-2 in conference play.

Impressive comeback win to force overtime and knock off a good Wisconsin Badger team.  Here's a good recap if you didn't catch it on ESPN:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/recap?gid=201101110358

Quick Picks - Wednesday Dec 22nd

After nearly two weeks devoid of quality college hoops, today finally offers a bevy of quality games to get one last look at a lot of teams before the enter conference play.  If you are a night-owl, you are doubly in luck, with quality games airing at 11pm and 1AM EST tonight.

Harvard @ UConn -13:  The Huskies are a surprise at #4 in the country and undefeated.  It is possible they sleepwalk through this game, it has certainly been the Huskies mantra over past seasons to play to the level of their competition.  However, I think the men will be focused on not wanting to cede all the holiday attention to their record-breaking lady counterparts.  Plus, Jeremy Lin is gone and this Harvard team just isn't very good.  Gimme the Huskies big.

UCF -3.5 @ UMass:  If anyone is ripe for a let-down game it is the Knights.  After winning two of the biggest games in school history, defeating instate rivals Florida and Miami en route to their first ever appearance in the national rankings (#24 AP) the Knights look to keep their perfection alive visiting a reeling UMass squad.  UMass started the year 7-0 before dropping their last three contests to Boston College, Maine and a 25-point blowout to struggling Seton Hall. 

This line reflects a lot of the residual name recognition from the Marcus Camby-era Minutemen as well as the relative anonymity of the Knights basketball.  I can understand the potential for a letdown, but objectivly the Knights are 10-12 points better on a neutral floor.  I think they bring their A-game, win easily tonight, and enter C-USA play as one of the nation's only undefeated teams.

Texas @ Michigan State -6.5:  Texas is one of my sleeper teams to watch in March.  They are long and athletic and have dynamite freshman talent in Corey Joseph.  Michigan State just seems to be a little off in the early part of the season.  Knowing Tom Izzo, all those ills will be long forgotten by March, but here in December six and a half feels like way to many to lay in a game they could very well lose straight up.  Gimme the Longhorns and the points.

Dayton @ Seton Hall -7.5:  Is this line a typo??  I looked at four different sites to make sure I wasn't reading it wrong.  It's one of those games that made me wish I wagered for real instead of simply prognosticating for pride and column width...  Gimme the Flyers straight up, but the 7.5 makes it even cushier.  This is my first lock of the year.

Drexel @ Syracuse -13.5:  Don't sleep on the Dragons.  They've already knocked off Louisville in their beatiful and cavernous new YUM Center.  They won't be intimidated by the Carrier Dome.  Drexel is a legit tourney team and will compete with VCU, Old Dominion and George Mason in the better-than-advertised Colonial League.  I think the 'Cuse win at home, but I'll take the 13.5 going Drexel's way.

For the final selections, we'll tackle the wonderful trio of games tipping off at 11PM EST.  For those of us who start their Christmas Break tomorrow, it's a good night to wrap some presents and watch some Christmas Hoops!

Butler -8 @ Utah,  Kansas -10 @ Cal, Xavier +5 @ Gonzaga


Maniac's Record to Date: 12-8-1

Bracketeering - Dec 5th, 2010, The Late Thanksgiving Edition

Welcome fellow maniacs to the season's belated Thanksgiving edition of Bracketeering.  We've recently grown a little bit in readers, so for those of you newly aquainted to the rankings, we do things a little differently here at MarchManiacs.com.  The rankings are an amalgamation of both objective and subjective qualities; wins matter, but WHO you have won and lost to and the MANNER in which the games unfolded matter most. 

That said, 10-0 without a high quality win doesn't automatically get ya' in.  More than likely, it keeps you out.  But that brings me to the final component of the Bracketeering rankings; what do you look like as a team and what is the potential for improvement.  There's a reason we tend to be a little ahead when lifting a team up in the rankings (example, two years ago we had Louisville #3 when they were #14 in the AP Poll.  By March, they were the #1 overall seed in the tournament. 

There are a bunch of other examples as well, Syracuse last year as well as Ohio State)  The reason it tends to work that way?  We watch a lot of games.  You will rarely find an opinion on a team we haven't watched play multiple times.

Where does the Maniac find the time?  Easy.  Mom and Dad have great satellite TV in their basement, which I live in....

On to Bracketeering!!

FINAL FOUR:

1. Duke - Slotting Duke at the top isn't really a daring move, but having them anywhere else would be a foolish one.  The defending champs are not only poised to repeat, they are actually considerably better than last year.  John Scheyer was fantastic last season but even as terrific as he was, it is impossible not deny Kyrie Irving is a significant upgrade at the point.  Ditto for Mason Plumlee.  Zoubek was a rebounding beast in March, but Plumlee gives the Devils a true post scoring presence and runs the break like an NBA lottery pick.  Even if he gets in foul trouble, they don't lose much bringing his brother in off the bench.  Watch how many times they lob it into the Plummle boy's in a given game.  Their abilities inside are clearly a focal point of Duke's offensive attack; something they have lacked for several seasons.


The starting five has upgraded, Nolan Smith returned, and Duke has even improved their depth.  Duke can legitimately play nine guys, which anyone who has watched Coach K over the years knows is more than enough to cut down the nets.  Coach K's previous four champs all relied primarily on seven players total.

Oh, and for good measure, Final Four MOP Kyle Singler decicded to spurn a likely first round NBA draft selection to return for his senior season.


Take all the reasons above, and factor in a questionable ACC and it is not too early to start "can Duke run the table" talk.

2. Ohio State - We had them #2 pre-season and the AP and ESPN polls have caught up.  The Buckeyes have the balance, athleticism and defensive abilities to cut down the nets.  Freshman Jared Sullinger is an absolute stud.  Think Blake Griffin.  The skill sets are very, very similar.  Blake Griffin was the #1 overall pick in the draft three years ago, and Sullinger is so good the comparison isn't an insult to either one of them.


What really puts Ohio State clearly ahead of some of the teams right below them is the senior leadership and all-around game of David Lighty.  Lighty was a freshman on the 2007 National Runner-Up team.  His defense is every bit as stellar as it was then, but his offensive game has really developed.  I liken this Ohio State team a lot to last year's Syracuse club.  Lighty plays the Wes Johnson role; a better defender and not quite as good a scorer (though a better shooter).


John Diebler is a stone cold assassin from the arc, a la Andy Routins and Lauderdale gives them the Rick Jackson/Onawaku-like banger inside.

Their win two weeks ago over Florida was as complete a ballgame as I have seen a team play this season and gave a good glimpse as to how good this year's Buckeyes can be.  Oddly enough, even after losing our National POY Evan Turner Ohio State is even better in 2010.

3. Kansas - This ranking is based more on gut feel and intuition than any imperical evidence.  The NCAA ended their glacial-paced stalemate over freshman Josh Selby's eligibility and the point guard will be ready to join the team officially on December 18th.  Considering most scouts had him rated on par with Duke's Kyrie Irving, the addition of Selby undoubtably makes the Jayhakws a more viable contender and eases some of the pain of losing Sherron Collins.


Kansas has yet to endure a true test, though their is nothing to be ashamed of beating Arizona and UCLA back-to-back.  However, the one-point margin over a really pedestrian UCLA team yesterday is cause for some pause.  I'm banking that the edition of Selby will elevate the Jayhawks to true national contender status, and is why they get the nod here over Kansas State, Michigan State and several worthy Big East squads.

Tuesday night's game against Memphis (7PM ESPN) is one I'm really looking forward to get a better read on the Jayhawks, though they will still be a work in progress until Selby suits up.

4. Georgetown - I'm going out on a little bit of a limb here, with Syracuse, Villanova and especially Pitt being rated much higher in the AP polls, however from the early eye test, Georgetown is the team to beat in the Big East.  With wins over Old Dominion, NC State and Missouri they have already passed some quality early tests.  The OT win over Missouri at absolute breakneck speed was as impressive as it was surprising.  Anyone think they'd ever see a John Thompson III coached team put up 111 points?!?  I sure didn't.




Austin Freeman is my early nod for BEast POY, and Jason Clark and Chris Wright join the party to give the Hoyas quite possibly the best backcourt in the nation.  Thursday's trip to Temple gives the Hoyas another chance to notch a good resume win before a trip to Memphis and begining the gauntlet of BEast play.

ELITE EIGHT:
5. Pitt - I've been tough on Pitt over the years, and the arguement can be made perhaps I am being a little tough on them here as well.  In my defense, 90% of the shots I have taken had Pitt have been proven absolutely correct.



So here's my early read on Pitt:  They are a tough, very tough, defensive ballclub that makes it difficult to initiate offense and can wear out the full 35 second clock.  They are a very good rebounding team and pound the glass on both ends.  Their difficiencies show up only on the offensive end. 


Ashton Gibbs can score and is a good creator on offense.  Wannamaker is a steady point guard, though not noted as a big offensive threat.  In order for Pitt to be a Final Four team, they are going to need big production from McGhee, Brown and Taylor. 


It's another fantastic start for the Panthers, racing out to a 9-0 record.  Their 2-point win over Texas was a fantastic game, and the win over Maryland could look better by the end of the year if the Terps surprise in the ACC.  Other than that, the resume is really blank.  They sqeaked out a win over Rhode Island in their opener and really haven't taken on a reasonable opponent aside from that.



This Saturday they tackle Tennessee in a game that will be a nice litmus test for both teams.  After that we get a pre-New Year's treat when they open BEast play Dec 27th at Connecticut.

6. Kansas State - There's just something that isn't quite clicking with the year's Wildcat squad.  Despite entering the season with their highest preseason ranking in school history, #3, the 'Cats seem to be adjusting a little slowly to life without Denis Clemente.  Jacob Pullen recieved most of the headlines last season, but it is difficult to understate the impact each man had in making the other better.  The two were able to share ballhandling and scoring duties simultaneously, something Pullen simply won't be able to do with Rodney McGruder and Martavious Irving. 



Curtis Kelley gives them tremendous athleticism and defense on the interior, as well as a dramatically improved post game.  Continuing to develop their inside game will make Pullen even more effective in the backcourt.


The disappointing Duke performance aside, and it is hard to find much fault with K-State's early returns.  They've notched double-digit wins at Gonzaga and over Virginia Tech, as well as quality wins over Washington State and James Madison. 



Their preconference schedule includes a trip to face Florida (played in Miami) and a Christmas Eve visit from UNLV, two more excellent challenges for Frank Martin's squad before entering Big 12 play.  They certainly will enter as the favorite, along with rival Kansas, however don't be surprised if they are joined by Missouri, Baylor and Texas, three squads with the potential to win the very strong Big 12.

7. Michigan State - Yes, the Spartans already have two losses but in Bracketeering a five point road loss in Cameron Indoor is no cause for punishement.  Neither is a five point loss on a neutral floor to UConn.  Huskies fans will likely take exception to being listed below Sparty; but consider two important criteria.  One, what is the ceiling for this ballclub?  Two, who have they played and how have they played them.
 


For Tom Izzo, the team on the floor in November is nearly always nowhere close to as good as the team will be in March.  If any coach has been better at "coaching up" a squad over the last 15 years, I don't know who it is.  The good news for Izzo?  This Spartan team doesn't have that far to go to be a legit Final Four contender.  With Kalin Lucas and Durell Summers and Draymond Green back in the fold, along with solid role players in Delvon Roe and Corey Lucious, plus some valuable size in Garrick Sherman and the talent and experience is clearly there.

Balancing out close losses to UConn and Duke are impressive victories over South Carolina and Washington.  Never one to duck a daunting schedule, Izzo's club takes on Syracuse this Tuesday and hosts Texas on the 22nd before starting Big Ten play on New Year's Eve with Minnesota.

8. UConn - Hands down, Kemba Walker is the undisputed National POY if the season ended today.  Of course it doesn't, and I have a feeling he is going to start facing some unique defensive looks if someone doesn't emerge quickly to help the 6'0'', 180 pound lead guard.  Outside of Walker, no one one the team averages more than 12 ppg.  Only big man Alex Orihaki is in double figures.

The Huskies followed up their impressive win over Michigan State by absolutely boat-racing Kentucky the next day in Hawaii.  Since returning to the mainland they've (hopefully) gotten their letdown stinkbomb out of their system, struggling with New Hampshire before taking the lead late, 62-55. 

Things remain calm for UConn until Dec 27th when we will get a true feel for this team over a daunting two week stretch that includes three road tests; @ Pitt, @ Notre Dame and @ Texas.  Win two of those three, and they will certainly vault over Michigan State.  Until then, call me just a touch skeptical the Kemba Walker show can continue to knock off top competition.    


Sweet and lurking: The next tier




 From here on in, things get pretty tricky.  If we know one thing about this early season it is that parity is reigning supreme.  A healthy arguement could be made for about forty teams, and in truth, very few have satisfactorily serparated themselves thus far.  This is where the Maniac eye comes in to play.  You will find a few teams that have earned their slot on the floor who didn't make the cut (Notre Dame) as well as a few who haven't earned it who snag a slot (Kentucky).  Here's our take on the Sweet Sixteen tier.

9. Illinois - Demetri McCammey and company showed they belong among the nation's elite, as well as the Big Ten's which will prove every bit as competitive with their OT loss to Texas in Madison Square Garden.  This weekend the Illini easily handled a good Gonzaga squad.  Their wins over Maryland and North Carolina are two valuable chips in their favor, as well as a nice frame of reference for how much stronger the Big Ten is versus the ACC in 2010-2011.  The renewal of their border rivalry with Missouri on Dec 22nd will be an absolute dandy.

10. UNLV - Not many teams have done more in the preconference season than the Runnin' Rebs.  They have already knocked off Wisconsin as well as notching double digit wins over Murray State, Virginia Tech and Illinois State.  The Mountain West is one of the best conferences in the nation this year, not just one of the best non-BCS leagues.  From top to bottom this conference is better than the Pac-10 and SEC and certainly wouldn't be embarrassed by the ACC either. Winning that league this year could be plenty to earn a #2 seed if UNLV or San Diego State continue their stellar early season non-conference play.


11. Missouri -  The Tiger's OT loss to Georgetown is every bit as good as a win in our book.  Missouri is still playing at a breakneck tempo that is going to give teams fits all season.  This weeks matchup with Vanderbilt is going to be an awesome experiement in tempo control.  If the Tigers can speed up the 'Dores, they should roll.  If Vandy can keep the game in the 60's or lower, it is going to be fascinating to see if Mizzou can still score and defend efficiently.  Here's betting they can, and will.

12. Purdue - The loss of senior Robbie Hummel to his second ACL injury in as many years is a horrible blow to an otherwise Top 5 team.  However, be cautious in writing the Boilermakers off just yet.  E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson both chose to forgo the NBA draft and return to West Lafayette for one more season.  Purdue can compete with any team in the nation, but they are going to have to getter better play out of the trio of John Hart, Kelsey Barlow and Lewis Jackson in order to do so.  

The eleven point road loss to Richmond wasn't a good effort, but Richmond is a legit tourney team and will contend to win the A-10.  Purdue showed some real guts in their OT win over Virginia Tech (who is already sowing the seeds of yet another angst-filler bubble straddling season) and they follwed it up Saturday with a pasting of Alabama.  The Big Ten is brutal this year, easily the best and most complete league in the country, so to expect the Boilermakers to post the same record this season as last would be asking a bit much.  Don't infer that to mean this isn't a very, very good team.



Purdue will continue to have a pretty light load leading into conference play, thus a low RPI as the calendar turns to 2011.  However, they will have ample opportunity to earn huge resume wins nearly every week once Big Ten play commences.

13. Kentucky -  The Wildcats certainly have some work to do to even begin to approach their considerable talent.  That was extremely evident in this weekend's two point loss to struggling North Carolina (who much like the Wildcats will be considerably better in six to eight weeks.)  However they showed flashes of their potential brilliance in their routine win over Washington in Maui.  The 84-67 drubbing at the hands of UConn raised some concerns as the seemed unable to corral Kemba Walker despite the tremedous athleticism the Wildcats posses in their backcourt.  That tells me this team is still a bit immature and needs to strengthen their resolve on the defensive end of the court.

Brandon Knight has been impressive early, and looks to be the real deal though he will get very little media attention with Kyrie Irving and Josh Selby stealing many of the headlines.  Kentucky will struggle all year with stretches of offensive ineptitude unless they can find someone other than Darius Miller who can consistently knock down open jump shots.  Until then, expect the Cats to see a lot of zones and collapsing defenses on stud freshman Terrance Jones.

Wednesday's visit from Notre Dame will be an interesting test for both teams, and New Year's Day's trip to Louisville's new KFC Center is about as fun as college hoops gets.
14. Washington - Washington took a pair of defeats in Maui, a well played loss to Kentucky followed by another close defeat to Michigan State.  They do own a 106-63 blasting of Virginia (who beat Minnesota last week) and an equally thorough dismantling of Texas Tech  (Pat Knight might want to start updating the resume...).

Monday's tussle with Portland should be an interesting under-the-radar game, and this weekend's trip to Texas A&M will be an interesting ball game as well.  Once Pac-10 play begins, it appears Washington should be able to do some damage, as no one other than Arizona has shown much so far this season.  Isiah Thomas has shown some flashes of what was expected of him prior to last year's freshman campaign, averaging 15 points and a plus 2:1 assist/turnover ratio.

15. San Diego State - I really like this Aztec team and flirted with slotting them as high as ninth.  Khawi Leonard is a bigtime player, but he is by no means a one-man show.  Steve Fisher's squad has already gone into the Kennel and notched a comfortable win over the Zags and follwed it up with a 14 point win over the other WCC favorite, St. Mary's.  Tonight they downed Wichita State by 17, continuing their stellar preconference campaign.

The schedule is pretty barren over the next three weeks with a Cal team that has at times looked completely inept offensively the only real obstacle to starting the year 16-0.  Following that, things begin to get a lot more competitive with home and home's with UNLV, BYU, New Mexico, Air Force and Utah in MWC play. 

16. Tennessee - Slotting the Vols at #16 puts them considerably lower than the polls currently have them, and truthfully the Vols have earned a better ranking with their on-court play.  If their off-court play, specifically the issues with Bruce Pearl's suspension that have me still unsold on whether or not Tennessee is a serious contender to earn a top-four seed come March.

Wins over Villanova and VCU are impressive.  This weekend's trip to Pittsburgh is one you are going to want to DVR.  Both teams employ a similar athletic, defense-first style of play and it will be a treat to see who plays it better.

The SEC East is as good as any division in college basketball while the SEC West is simply dreadful.  Unfortunatly for the Vols, residing in the East gives them eight games against Kentucky, Florida, Vandy and Georgia respectively.  Add in Jan 5th's annual Memphis tilt and the Vols are going to get plenty of chances to earn some more big wins.

Bracket Busts: Five early season disappointments

Butler - What a difference a year makes.  Six months ago the Bulldogs were a mere few inches from capturing a fairytale-like National Championship.  This year they have already been blownout by Louisville and Duke in addition to a very disappointing loss to Evansville.  With games with Xavier, Stanford and Utah still looming Butler better learn how to play without Gordon Hayward quickly or else they may find themselves needing to win the Horizon's automatic bid in order to return to the Dance.






Cal - No one was expecting Mike Montgomery's troops to be a Final Four team this year, but they certainly were expected to earn a tourney invite.  The Bears have some major work to do in order to make that expectation a reality.  The low point came in the Old Spice Classic where they scored FIVE first half points en route to a humbling loss to Notre Dame.  They were also humbled in a 68-46 loss to Boston College (who has already dropped a game to Yale).

Perhaps no team better emphasises the tremendous balance and inconsistency across the national landscape than Cal.  Despite those two terribly played losses they do own impressive wins; a 25-point pasting of New Mexico and a 57-50 win over Temple.  Tonight's three point win over Iowa State isn't a huge deal, but they did show signs of coming out of their offensive coma and will get a huge opportunity to soften damage of the two losses Wednesday night when they host San Diego State.

Gonzaga - The Zags were underrated so long that they are now flirting with entering the territory of badly overrated.  Their is nothing embarrassing about losses to San Diego State, Illinois and Kansas State.  However at some point you have to beat some quality teams if you have intentions of  being perceived as quality yourself.  In accordance with their always daunting non-conference scheduling Gonzaga gets a few more cracks at it with games against Xavier, Washington State, Notre Dame, Baylor and Memphis.  Three losses in that bunch might put them in recently-unfamiliar territory; needing to win the WCC to earn entry to the tourney.

The Missouri Valley - For the past decade there has been good reason for the big boys to fear a visit from a member of the Valley.  Wichita State, Creighton and Northern Iowa have all had their fair share of giant-slaying glory including some memorable tourney runs.  With the way this early season has played out with every team dropping at least two games in addition to notching very few marquee wins, it is shaping up to be another one-bid season for the MVC.

Colorado - There was some growing sentiment before the season that standout sophomore Alex Burks and the Buffs could be a good sleeper team in the Big 12.  At 4-3 with losses to Georgia, San Fransisco and a sixteen point schelacking by Harvard, it seems sleeper might have been better termed sleeping.

Half Court Heaves:  Teams Worth Keeping an Eye On:

Cleveland State (10-0, but only quality opponent they face all year is South Florida.  Still they might be able to make things interesting for Butler in the Horizon)

Cincinnati (8-0) - Don't look now, but there is no reason the Bearcats shouldn't be 16-0 entering Big East play.

UCF (8-0) - The Knights opened some eyes with their win over Florida this week.  The Knights still have contests with Miami (FL) and UMass before entering play in the balanced Conference USA

Possible Tourney Teams as of Today:

Richmond, Temple, Dayton, Vanderbilt, Murray State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida, Marquette, Texas, Louisville, Maryland, UAB, Memphis, So. Miss, VCU, Old Dominion, George Mason, Drexel, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Miami (FL), Xavier, Northwestern, Kent State, BYU, New Mexico, Arizona, Washington State, Charleston, IPFW,

The Mighty Mastadons have only 2 losses, both close games with Xavier & Cincinnati

Big Ten Looks to Start a New Trend in ACC Challenge

Last season the Big Ten laid to rest the seemingly eternal streak of ACC dominance.  Winning last year's challenge was the first time the Big Ten had done so since the series inception more than a decade ago.

Last year's triumph may have been a minor upset, but in order for the ACC to get back on top it is going to take an upset of their own.  For perhaps the first time in the Challenge era, the Big Ten is clearly superior.

Here's a quick breakdown of the matchups, along with some fearless prognostications:

MONDAY:

Virginia @ Minnesota:  Tubby's Gophers have been one of the pleasant surprises of the early season, winning their preseason tourney by downing North Carolina and West Virginia.  They also handled solid mid-majors Wofford, Western Kentucky and Siena, all with relative ease.  They should cruise at home against the Cavaliers.

TUESDAY:

Iowa @ Wake Forest:  Both teams have been dreadful in the early going and look like cellar dwellars in their respective leagues.  I'll take Wake, who I think is a little better than they have played, at home over the Hawkeyes.

Georgia Tech @ Northwestern:  The Wildcats their first real test of the season.  I like them over the Jackets in a close game.

Ohio State @ Florida State:  The Buckeye's were #2 in our preseason poll, and remain the most legitimate challenger (along with Kansas) to the Blue Devils hopes to repeat.  Florida State lacks the offensive punch to score with a very balanced Buckeye attack.

Michigan @ Clemson:  This is a game the Tigers need to win if the ACC has any chance of pulling out the challenge.  I think they will, but this one could be really ugly.  Both teams are sloppy with the ball an inefficient offensively.

North Carolina @ Illinois:  Illinois is one of the quietest good teams in the country. They dropped to #20 after losing an intense game to Texas.  Look for the Illini to exploit Carolina's ballhandling and passing woes into easy buckets and an easy win.

WEDNESDAY:
Indiana @ Boston College:  This is a huge opportunity for the Hoosiers to take the next step in their rebuilding journey and validate their early unbeaten creampuff-aided record.  BC has played in more competitive games early, and that is an advantage, but I still like the Hoosiers to get an upset win on the road.

North Carolina State @ Wisconsin:  The Badgers just do not lose in the Kohl Center.  They won't tonight either.  Give me Bucky in a win over better-than-advertised NC State.

Purdue @ Virginia Tech:  VA Tech might be the second best team in the ACC (hence my 'Can Duke Run the Table' columns).  Purdue is taking some flack for losing to Richmond the other day, but Richmond is a legit Top 20 team.  To me, not as concerning a loss as it seemed on the surface.  Despite the loss of Hummel, Purdue remains Top 10-Top 15 talented with JuJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore.  I like the Boilermakers in the road, stiffling Malcoln Delaney and the Hokies.  This is probably the second best game of the series, I wouldn't miss this one.


Maryland @ Penn State:  This is why God created ESPN-U.  So you and I could watch games like this while 99.9% of the nation could care less.  Maryland is my sleeper pick in the ACC.  I watched them frustrate Pitt for 40 minutes.  Once they figure out who their primary ballhandler is going to be, the Terps could surprise some folks and make the tourney.  Penn State is awful, but enjoy Talor Battle for one more season.  The do-everything guard for the Nittany Lions is one of the most exciting players in the country.  That said, I'll take the Terps on the road.

Michigan State @ Duke:  This is the marquee matchup, and we'll devote a column to it on Wednesday.  I won't give away my pick, but I'm sure you can guess....

OVERALL:  I have the Big Ten winning 7-4 on my fight card. 

.

Quick Picks - Feb 9th

It's a real good night on ESPN, nearly every game is an interesting and relativly meaningful one.

In the early game, I really like the way Vanderbilt is coming together and love their home court edge.  A win tonight gives them a stranglehold on second place in the SEC East and puts them a home-win over Kentucky away from making a heckuva case for a #3 seed in March.  Plus the loss to UGA over the weekend has to leave a bad taste in the mouth.  Gimme the 'Dores -3.

It's been a tough week for Oklahoma hoops with the off the court troubles following the surprising Texas win.  I'm not really sure how a team that has played as poorly as the Sooners is laying 6.5 to Texas Tech.  Give me the Red Raiders and the points.

Repeat after me, "no one wins in the Kohl Center."  I think I have finally learned my lesson.  Wisconsin's ability to hold serve at home, along with the Kalin Lucas injury and Evan Turner's rapid recovery have made for a real interesting stretch run to the Big Ten championship.  Give me the Badgers in a romp, sparking the beginning of the Illini's NIT-slide.

In the Big Ten clash tonight, I haven't seen definitively if Kalin Lucas is a go or not.  Obviously without him the Spartans are a much different team.  Purdue's ability to defend ball screens and pressure the ball without having to double is tough to play against at full strength; if you are missing your reigning Big Ten POY it is darn near impossible.  Give me the Boilers +3 tonight at the Breslin Center.  Purdue can force a four-way tie atop the Big Ten with a win tonight (Either Illinois or likely Wisconsin being the fourth, along with Ohio State).

MANIAC'S PICKS: 

Vandy -3
Mason +4
TX Tech +6.5
Purdue +3
Wisconsin -9.5

Bo Knows Whoopin' Sparty

If only not for my vain need to flaunt convention and be oh-so-super smart, a perfect night of picks was in hand...ah to sleep perchance to dream (quote is from Role Models, not Shakespeare...losers).

Forget the three wins (you're welcome).  Let's talk about the one that got away.

First off, is there anything more predictable than watching Wisconsin make a "better" team look utterly and completely clueless in the Kohl Center?  First Duke, then Purdue, now red-hot Michigan State have all felt Bucky's sting when entering his damn; er, dam.  So, what did we learn about each team from tonight's game?

Strangely enough, very little.  I have gotten to the point where I just throw out road losses to Wisconsin.  It doesn't make Purdue or Michigan State any less capable of getting to Indy in April.  It doesn't eliminate Duke as a Final Four contender.  No, the latter was done by Georgetown sending a huge 'flashback to last march' reminder that the Devils still have a devil of a time defending athletic, versatile fours.  On the brightside they might have made sophomore Greg Monroe a few extra million dollars this Summer.

Back to Bucky.  One thing I did take away from the game was an interesting post-game comment from Coach Bo Ryan, where he immediately, and nearly completely credited the win and the frequent success against State to his assistant coach.  Erin Andrews looked perpelexed by this answer, but it actually makes a ton of sense.  Michigan State is excellent with creating mismatches and overloads through on the ball screens. It gives their guards room to create off the dribble (especially Kalin Lucas) and forces help to come.  This leads to easy shots.  There is a reason why Michigan seems to have very balanced scoring every season. Wisconsin not only hedged over those screens, in many cases they flat out "jumped the route" to borrow a football term.  All this means is that they simply refused to let the screener get to the ball and get set.  This creates a lack of sync in the offense (which was obvious committing 13 turnovers to Wisconsin's 5), and over-reliance on tough outside shots (often contested, they shot just 22% from 3-point range), and an lack of quality shots, which leads to numbers advantages heading the opposite direction.  In fact, if not for Michigan States superior athleticism on the glass (11 offensive rebounds) the result would have been even worse.

The synopsis of a long answer: coaching matters, and few in the country do it better than Bo Ryan.  I honestly think a team like Michigan State with the constant ball screening would create sever difficulties in March for a lot of teams far more "talented" than Wisconsin; say Kentucky for example.  Michigan State is one of the best seven or eight teams in the country, no doubt.  So, yes, coaching matters.  And if Bo Ryan says his assistant coach is the best in the country, well, frankly I'm inclined to believe him.

The other thing to take away from this game?  The Big Ten will be fun in February.  Both Ohio State and Purdue benefited tonight, joining Wisconsin at just two games back of Michigan State.  Purdue still plays the Spartans twice, and already took their obligatory Kohl Center loss on the chin.   It will be intersting down the stretch with four good teams slugging it out for the Big Ten title and top seeds in March.

I'm pretty sure Spartan fans know exactly where that fist went tonight...

Tuesday's Quick Picks - February 2nd, 2010

It's not a huge slate of games today, but there are at least three worth tuning into.  The Maniac, much like seemingly every team in the country not named Kansas, is having some trouble these days on the road.  'On the Road" meaning my incessant insistence on picking road favorites.  The numbers are bearing that it just doesn't seem to be the way to go this season... that said, am I smart enough to heed my own researched advice??  (pause for crowd laughter)

On to tonight's fearless picks.

Did you hear John Wall and John Calipari aren't getting along?!?  I have a sly feeling that couples counseling can probably be averted and we can simply chalk it up to an 18-year old kid who has never been coached or disciplined pouting after his first EVER real loss.  Something tells me this one was only a story because some writers needed a story.  Oh, on a related note, this just in too, Dwight Freeney hurt his ankle and Peyton Manning is really good.  See?  It's been a slow sports week.

Tonight the Kentucky Wildcats take on a ranked opponent sans the cumbersome burden of the nation's #1 ranking.  Ole Miss is fatally devoid of an inside presence, which is especially troublsome considering UK has DeMarcus Cousins and Pat Patterson waiting for them at Rupp.  However, what Mississippi does have is one of the nation's better backcourts.  They are actually very similar to Kentucky and that both feautre a pair of lightning quick, offensive-minded, smallish guards who will dominate the ball.  (Not to blaspheme the Great Wall, but the two backcourts' stats are very similar)

I think this presents Wall and Bledsoe with an intersting look they haven't really faced yet this year.  I am curious how they respond, and think the results will be a little more even that Vegas anticipates.  I feel good that Kentucky wins at home, their presence on the boards creating second shots will be the difference.  However, I think Chris Warren and Terrico White give them a heckuva game for 35+ minutes.  Give me Ole Miss and the +12.

In ESPN's nightcap, we get Big Ten-undefeated Michigan State staking their perfect record at a place no one wins; the Kohl Center.  Michigan State is much more talented than Wisconsin.  They are as hot as any team in the country and are a legit #1 seed contender.  And they are getting two points!

Have I learned my lesson?  Stop picking road teams playing in places where the home team ALWAYS wins...

Nope.  Gimme Sparty and the two in a win that ends Wisconsin's hopes for Big Ten title, and severely hampers the hopes of resurgent pre-season fave Purdue.

For weeks I have been foreshadowing the late Northwestern bid-clinching surge... time to put my money where my mouth is tonight when they host Michigan.  And I gladly will.  Give me John Shurna and the Cats laying only one point in their home gym.

I'm going to keep breaking my own new rule and take one more road favorite tonight.  Kansas State is heading to Nebraska tonight in what has all the makings of an enormous let down game following the gut-wrenching OT loss to rival Kansas.  I don't think Frank Martin is going to let that happen though.  Gimme K-State laying four in a good win; not a sexy win, but the kind of win Top 4 seeds don't miss on.

MANIAC'S PICKS:

Ole Miss +12

Michigan State +2

Northwestern -1

Kansas State -4

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Moving and Shaking

Today is going to be filled with movers and shakers.  Movers; as into prime tourney position; and Shakers, teams whose footing is going to be shaky with a loss to say the least.

Here is a quick rundown of the biggest games of a packed Saturday.

Louisville @ West Virginia:  The Cards are 13-7, and a loss today would drop them to 13-8.  With nary a great win on their resume and looming blowout losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina, anything shy of a huge step-up game today leaves them in dire straights.  For the Mountaineers, a number one seed isn't out of the question, but they can't drop any more home games.  Especially to teams like the 'Ville.

Marquette @ Connecticut:   The Warriors are the textbook definition of a tough-luck ballclub, having lost three games in conference to Top 25 team in the final seconds.  Since the NCAA committee rarely looks at margin of loss, the biggest stat that matters right now is 12-8.   Connecticut is only one game better at 13-7, but has better non-conference wins (and losses) and a little more name cache (not that it is supposed to matter).  Interesting fact, Marquette is 0-5 on the road this season.  If that streak runs to six, it's time to kick some dirt on their grave.  However, should they win, the middle of the BEast gets intersting with both teams in a six or seven team scrum for likely two, possibly three bids.  It's a BIG game in Storrs (but let's hope the Huskie fans don't storm the court if they win...seriously...stay off the floor.)

Duke @ Georgetown:  Wow!  How often do we get an Elite Eight level non-conference game this late in the year?  Not very often, so enjoy it.  The winner puts a HUGE chip in their pile and stays on track for a #1 or #2 seed.  Duke loses less with a loss since its a true road game.  If the Hoyas lose, it has them trending towards a 4/5 seed.  Neither team is crippled with a loss, but still a fantastic game worth tuning in to.

Oklahoma St. @ Missouri:  A HUGE battle for 4th place in the Big 12 (and with K-State at Kansas tonight, perhaps even third place...).  Both teams have been pleasantly surprising this year, easily outpacing Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  OK State is 16-4, Mizzou stands at 15-5, and they are tied in conference play.  This game gives the winner a huge leg up in getting to the Dance.

Baylor @ Texas:  Put Baylor in the category with the two teams above; pleasantly surprising.  Texas is still a beast - don't let the recent slide fool you.  They are still in line for a possible #1 seed...unless Baylor clips them on the road.  A win like this one would likely have Scott Drew's Bears on the right side of the bubble come March.


Vanderbilt @ Kentucky:  Forget the subplot lines; Kentucky rebounding from their first loss, Vandy trying to stay hot, etc.  This game is for the lead in the SEC East.  If Vandy nips the Cats, they would open up a two game conference lead and have already beaten Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina on the road.  Doesn't that sound like the resume of a Top 2 seed??  Not saying ANY of that will happen, but today's game is bigger than it looks on paper (and in the AP polls).


Harvard @ Cornell:  Forget the hyperbole for all the games I scrawled above about getting in or not making the tournament.  The most important game of the day is happening on the campus of the Cornell Red.  The Ivy League is the only league that refuses to play a conference tournament, meaning the regular season winner gets the league's tourney bid.  I have read a few columns that suggested the Red would earn an at-large bid should they falter to the Crimson.  Don't believe that for a second!  Sentimentality aside, their signature "win" is a close loss to Kansas.  If that's what you are looking for, give Charlie Weiss and extension at Notre Dame.  This game is do-or-die, and probably the best game in the country tomorrow.  Of course, unless you live on campus at Cornell, I don't think you'll be able to see it...just check back here for the coverage...


Northwestern @ Michigan State:  Many people on TV and radio suggested the Wildcats need this game to have any chance at the tourney (not true - as my loyal readers know) BUT if they can repeat last year's surprising win at Sparty it does put a HUGE chip in their pile for earning their first ever NCAA bid.  That said, don't dispair when Sparty hammers them.


Kansas @ Kansas State:  The Maniac was one of many who praised the KSU students for staying OFF the court after beating then-number one Texas.  Drop now #1 Kansas?  Have at it guys, have at it.  And while you are at it, dodge the subsequent let down game and you have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 and earning a #2 seed.  For KU, a win here puts them back atop the polls and has them trending towards the #1 overall seed in the tournament.

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Working Overtime - A Chaotic Saturday in College Hoops

Just in case you needed any more proof that this year's tourney is as unpredictable as any in recent memory, with no clear cut favorites, take a quick sampling of some of this afternoon's contests.

Texas and Kentucky remained the nation's only two unbeatens, but you'd be hard pressed to call them the nation's clear two best teams.  For the second time this week Kentucky looked lackluster, struggling to put away a lower-echelon and NIT-at-BEST conference foes.  Today they let Auburn hang around until the final minutes before a few John Wall blow-byes sealed the deal.  They seem ripe for a loss, though to this point it has been the better teams have brought out the Cats' edge.  Perhaps it will be one of the lesser foes that get them (Arkansas?  @South Carolina?)  They have let Miami (OH), Georgia, and now Auburn play them tight for 39 minutes, yet handled UConn, Louisville and Florida with aplomb.  Lack of focus?  Perhaps it is simply parity, parity, parity.

Texas can let out a Texas-sized sigh of relief after dodging a bullet at home against Texas A&M.  The Aggies led for 39 minutes, all but the most important final one; before the Longhorns forced OT and gabbed the win.  This is not a new trend for the Horns either, as more than a few unranked opponents (though A&M is a good tourney-likely ballclub) hang around until the final few minutes.  Like Kentucky, they have brought their A-game for A-opponents.  The Horns better Monday when they visit Kansas State in Manhattan, or they will leave with their first loss.

The BEast continues to roar with seemingly every game being a fantastic gut-wrencher.  The season kicked off before the new year giving us a West Virginia over Seton Hall OT thriller.  Today?  Syaracuse wins by 1 at West Virginia, Pitt need OT to stave off Louisville (and remain 5-0 in conference), and Notre Dame gets clipped by two in their road upset bid of Cincinnati.  Only Villanova and Pitt remain unbeaten, and legitimatly 11 teams in this league are easily among the Top 65.  Will all eleven gets bids?  Of course not, but those last two are three are going to be one heck of a fight that will likely not be decided until Madison Square Garden.

Not wanting to be left out of the OT party, the SEC handed out an absolute thriller in Knoxville.  While one can debate the meritoriousness, considering the situation that derived the predicament, the Vols are undeniably becoming a team of national curiosity.  Not only are they a good story, they are also the hottest team in the country.  The orange surge continued today with a scintillating win over Ole Miss that took 45 minutes to decide.

Want some more parity?  Georgia Tech and Syracuse eeked out final possession wins over highly rated conference foes on the road (UNC and WVU), yet both have lost home games to unranked opponents in the past two weeks (in the 'Cuse defense, Pitt is Top-15 as of today).  

Clemson looked like world beaters against UNC earlier this week and again for 35 minutes today against NC State.  Then a 19 point lead evaporated into a "glad that desperation three came up short" three point win.  NC State beat Georgia Tech last week.  And lost to Florida on a 60 foot buzzer beater... Seriously, you figure out the ACC.  The only team that seems to be fully clicking is... Virginia?  Yep.  After an 18-point win over Miami (exposed this week much?  Wow.)  the Cavs are the only 3-0 team in the league.  Are they better than Duke?  Not a chance.  But it might be time to start paying attention to the Cavs in the wacky 2010 ACC.

What I do know about the ACC?  Teams are going to continue to pressure Carolina until there is some indication Larry Drew can handle it.  So far, so bad for the sophomore point guard.  The more the pressure turns him over, the more he seems to be pressing.  He really looked rough down the stretch toda against Tech.  It looks to me like Roy Williams is desperately searching for a combination that works, and will have to do it with the Heels unranked for the first time as of Monday (assuming voters have any sense at all...)

And what is going on in Boiler country?  Since writing my well-researched proclamation on the Boilers Final Four-worthiness, they haven't won a single game, going from undefeated to seventh place in the Big Ten in the span of ten days.  Tonight's loss at Northwestern isn't a back-breaker, but a number one seed is starting to slip away.  Michigan State handled their biz today, handing Illinois their first conference loss in moving to 5-0.  This puts Sparty a full three games ahead of Purdue (granted, they still play twice), and I find it hard to believe the committee will reward a number one seed to a team that fails to win their conference (other than the obvious 1-2 in the Big 12 and possibly the BEast).

Parity is running wild, in every conference large and small.  This week's Bracketeering is going to be based a lot on subjective matters and eye-ball tests and hypothesis and is sure to raise a few eyebrows and arguments.

Not that we'd want it any other way.

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A New Year of Bracketeering - Jan 8th, 2010

The calendar has turned and we bravely embark on a new decade of Bracketeering. First off - a big thanks to all our readers, you are growing in numbers and pretty soon the Maniac has a feeling that relatives will no longer control the majority of our audeince... goodtimes indeed.

For our neophytes, a quick synopsis of the methodology employed here: 1. We do not care about the AP and coaches poll, wins and losses do not move you up or down a prescribed number of slots. 2. We do our best to weigh both performance, but also a little predictive nature as well, meaning not just what you have done, but also waht our eyes tell us you can do. 3. You are welcome to piss, moan and complain about our rankings. We enjoy the emails, and have learned several new creatives profanities from you. So, Mazel Tov, and Happy New Year.

Enjoy the decade's first edition of Bracketeering.

FINAL FOUR:

1. Texas - I definitely flirted with dropping the Horns this week after a few somnambulistic performances against UT Corpus Christi and Arkansas. However, don't most good team go through a few little lulls here and there, especially in games against lesser competition? What I do know is that when the big boys came to play, the Horns beat 'em by double digits. They win a lot of games late, if for no other reason than they have tremendous depth. The general fan is more familiar with the names on Kansas and Kentucky's rosters, but the Horns are ten deep, athletic and balanced. For now - they keep our top slot once again.

2. Kansas - Some people will overreact to the close call at home against Cornell, but not us. The Red are good. Even better? The stern test of the Jayhawks before the rigors of confere4nce play commence. It has been a long time since they were tested. It is good to find out who your Alpha Dog is before everything is on the line in March. And if there was any doubt, there is no longer. It's Sherron Collins. His numbers aren't spectacular; and therein lies his greatest strength on my POY ballot. He is assimilating all the talent available with aplomb, and gives them everything you want from a PG who will be contending for a National Title. So, yeah, I've come around on Collins.

Oh, and the dismantling of a good Temple team on the road was as brilliant as a team has played this year. Not this team. Any team.

3. Purdue - I'm starting to really love this team. They share the ball better than any team in the nation, and remind me a lot of the 2006-2007 Gator squad. They have good players with clearly, and perfectly defined roles. They have NBA talent with Johnson, Hummel and E'Twan Moore. They have the best glue guy in country in Chris Kramer and have a functional bench. They are not more talented per se than our #4 team, but gut instict tells me they are a little better as a team.

This is a huge "show me" stretch coming up for the Boilers with a trip to the Kohl Center tomorrow (where the Badgers have already beaten Duke) and a visit from the once again Evan Turner-led Buckeyes on Tuesday. Win both? Final Four talk has to heat up beyond Boiling in West Lafayette.

4. Kentucky - Fourth? Last week I have them #2, they handle Louisville, I write a "Run the Table" column...and now drop them to fourth? It's not an indictment of the Cats, it's simply that Kansas and Purdue looked brilliant the past week, and the Cats are still a little more potential than polish. That said, with Wall and Cousins blossoming more every week, it is getting harder and harder to see this team not making the short drive to Indy this April. Think there'd be a few Cat fans there??

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Duke - I'm getting less and less gun shy about my take on the Devils everytime I see them play...but still have an ounce of trepidation after the way they eveaporated in conference play and the tourney. That said, they are number 5...and then there is a drop. I'd be comfortable with them in the Final Five is such a thing existed.

Is there a classier act in college hoops than Coach K? The Dukies played a neutral court game with Iowa State in their annual tradition of bringing a game to a veteran player's hometown to play in front of friends and family. This time, John Scheyer did not disappoint, playing brilliantly and continuing his surprising First Team All-American campaign (and yes, he would have my vote once my ballot arrives....waiting...hmmm....)

6. Syracuse - Perhaps the loss to Pitt wasn't so bad in retrospect? We'll know more in a few weeks. What I do know, is that aside from that blip (where I thought Pitt just caught fire from behind the arc against the zone), they've looked like a Final Four caliber team. Great guard play, an All-American swingman in Wesley Johnson and some bangers underneath. Still love this team, and the bounce back win over Memphis shows me they are mentally tough as well.

7. West Virginia - Losing to Purdue is not a big deal. They should have lost to Marquette, but didn't. That said, this team has loads of talent and is dangerous. They are seventh, but I think I'd prefer to have them eighth, and leave the seventh slot open. There is that clear of a gap between the Top Six so far this season and the rest of the pack. Let's see if the 'Eers can maintain their focus and win two they should (Notre Dame and USF) before hosting Syracuse next weekend.

8.Kansas State - The Wildcats are just kind of hovering for the time being. I'm not sure they are the 8th best team in the country but am looking forward to getting a read on them this weekend with a trip to Missouri and a Tuesday visit from Texas A&M. Oh, and there's a little trip from Texas next weekend as well...

Sweet and lurking: The next tier

9. Michigan State - Is the run starting? It usually comes around February, until next thing you know, the Spartans are the dangerous #2 seed no one wants in their Region. The difference this year? They were as high as #2 in many national polls until a few early losses knocked them off the radar. The solid win over Wisconsin was impressive. Although there are no "gimmes" in the Big Ten (save for Iowa) their next seven games are all realistically "should wins" with the possible exception of a trip to Minnesota. Expect the Spartans to be right in the thivk of the Big Ten race when an exciting pair of games with Purdue rolls around this February.

10. Ole Miss - Maybe a little high considering the two losses are to upper echelon Big East teams, Villanova and West Virginia, which could suggest they are not a top tier team. Their inside play is uneven at best and not always pretty to watch. However, the old axiom that guard play wins in the tourney bodes well for Ole Miss who boasts the most underrated backcourt in the country.

11. Villanova - Wow, it seems like the #11 hole is where we weekly bury the upcoming prospects of some unsuspecting mid-major. Last edition we offered Temple up to the basketball Gods, only to have them sacrificed on the Jayhawks alter. This week, we flirted with a few of our mid-major darlings, but were compelled to concede the spot belongs to Villanova. I think it is becoming my silent accidental bias, but I am just never sold on these guys, despite the tourney success every year with Scottie Reynolds and Jay Wright. I am curious to see how they handle a visit from tough luck 1-2 Marquette and their trip to Louisville on Tuesday.

12. Connecticut - They have three losses by a combined total of fourteen points. The losses: Duke, Kentucky and at Cincinnati. They have a few holes, but much like Carolina I would be fearful of this team in March. They have one of the highest ceilings of any Big East team.

13. Northern Iowa - Yeah, I'm aware they are unranked in the polls. That's because most voters don't realize that good basketball happens outside the Big Six conferences, Memphis and Gonzaga. The Missouri Valley is consistently incredibly balanced and good. The Panthers are 4-0 in league play with wins over three of the top challengers (all by comfortable margins); Southern Illinois, Creighton and Missouri State. They have a tricky trip to Illinois State tomorrow (which I have probably effectively hexed them in...)

14. Wake Forest - I'm not sure why we all collectively forgot about the Deac's heading into this season. Sure, they miss early entries Johnson and Teague, but still have All-American candidate Al-Farouq Aminu dominating the paint. Admittedly this spot could have just as easily gone to Miami, Florida State, North Carolina (who I refuse to give up on!) and possibly even Virginia Tech. However, I give Wake the nod after completing a month without a loss that included wins over Gonzaga, NC State, Richmond and Xavier.

The Demon Deacons have a tough stretch with a trip to Miami tomorrow, a visit from Maryland Tuesday, then consecutive trips to Durham and Chapel Hill.

So in all likliehood, we have also put a well-timed hex on Wake! That said, go 2-2, and life is fine. Emerge 3-1 and this spot is more than well earned; it's too low.

15. Gonzaga - We are officially absolving them for the Duke disaster, figuring they are not the first or the last team to get humiliated on a bad day against the Dukies. They followed it up by winning at Oklahoma and at Illinois. Let's see how they handle the next, and most difficult remaining, stretch of the season: AT Portland tomorrow, AT St Mary's on Tuesday and AT San Diego next weekend. Win those three and they grab the improved WCC by the throat and can begin focusing on earning a Top 4 seed for March. Goodness knows they've played the schedule to merit it.

16. Rhode Island - Last week we honored USC with our final slot. They rewarded us by sacrificing their hoops program to save Pete Carrol's Golden Goose and banned themselves from post season play. So from here on in, they are similarly banned from Bracketeering. If you aren't going to the Big Dance, then just go away.

This edition's beneficiary? How about the Rams? They are 12-1, and are playing in the Nation's sixth best conference. Yes, the A-10 is clearly better than the Pac-10. Get over it BCS honks.

This Sunday's Temple v. Rhode Island game is one of the first real gems of many in A-10 conference play. After Temple, they get a few easier tests before back-to-back roadies at Xavier and Dayton to end Januaury. By then we'll have a pretty good read on how the A-10 is going to shake out. For now, we give the Rams the nod, but acknowledge Temple, Dayton and Xavier could all win the league, and expect some pressure from Richmond and maybe even Charlotte and George Washington.


Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Cal is a disaster, I've all but given up on the Bears. Oklahoma is approaching that status as well. Seton Hall seemed formidable but is 0-3 in BEast play and is certainly on the ropes. Xavier is disappointing at 9-5, but have taken very few bad losses. They are a 4 or 5 game win streak away from being relevant again. Butler is not in terrible shape, but needs to win their league more than they have in year's past after an unimpressive and uneven non-conference performance.

Is it fair to label Portland a disappointment? Consider that if not for an avalanche of early attention from beating UCLA (who we now know sucks out loud), and a injury/suspension ridden Minnesota team, would anyone have really cared much about the Pilots? Either way, after expectations heightened they responded with losses to Portland State, Idaho, Washington and Nevada. They are not an at-large team anymore, and will need to upset Gonzaga tomorrow to have any life left in their fading chances.

It isn't fair to label these two teams a bust, but I am sure Northwestern and Ohio State were hoping for better conference starts. The good news for Ohio State is Evan Turner's back in plenty of time to save the season. Unfortunately for NW, Kevin Coble is nowhere in sight and things are looking bleak for ending the most famous tourney drought in the country.

Half Court Heaves: Teams outside the common radar worth keeping an eye on
I usually just list the teams you may not have heard of, this week we include a few more teams from power conferences that have a good chance to contend for a bid. My near-locks are bolded. Teams that are strong enough that they could mess things up by losing the conference tourney and swiping a possible at-large are italicized.

Miami, Florida State, Pitt, Louisville, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Vermont, Richmond, Xavier, Dayton, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northern Colorado, Denver, Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Coastal Carliona, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, William & Mary, Old Dominion, UAB, Tulsa, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Harvard, Siena, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Murray State, Washington, Washington State, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Western Carolina, Texas San-Antonio, St. Mary's, Louisiana Tech (though very doubtful they snag an at-large judging by historical WAC results)

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