Showdown Saturday in College Hoops -

How big is today’s BYU at San Diego State game?  CBS bought the rights to televise the game nationally.  From it own affiliate, CBS College Sports! 

Yes, Jimmer-Mania is about to take center stage nationally this afternoon at 2PM Eastern, 11AM local time, when two of the nation’s top teams battle for Mountain West supremacy.  BYU took the first contest at home in one of the three or four best college basketball games of the season.  Jimmer was simply stunning, netting an incredible 43 points an erupting onto the national stage and emerging as the leading candidate for National Player of the Year.

Oddly enough, it could be the same matchup today that derails that quest.  San Diego State is good.  REALLY good.  Their 27-1 record gets dismissed because of their conference (which is absurd, I’d take the top half of the MWC over the top half of the Pac-10 and SEC), but the truth is San Diego State is built for the NCAA Tournament.  They defend every bit as well as some of the more vaunted Big East and Big Ten stalwarts.  They have a legit NBA player in their front court in Kwahi Leonard and an underrated elite point guard in DJ Gay.

I think it is going to be real tough for BYU to win today in San Diego.  I like the Aztecs to run the table this season and capture a much-debated #1 in the NCAA Tournament.

Win or lose, just as CBS correctly gambled, I am going to be glued to the TV for what promises to be one of the most exciting and anticipated games of the 2010-2011 regular season.

Maniac's Pick:  San Diego State -3.5

Southern Miss @ UCF Knights -1

UCF was the early season media darling as Marcus Jordan, heir of His Airness, and company took the nation by storm, racing out to a 14-0 start and a #21 national ranking.  The ranking was the first in school history, and with a young ball club under first-year head coach Donnie Jones, the sky was the limit.

Then the Knights went Chicken Little; as in the sky started falling right on top of them.  Whether it was nagging injuries, fatigue, overconfidence, or just simply the fact they played a little over their skis for the first month; things got bad quickly.  The Knights lost eight consecutive games, all in Conference USA, and faded from NCAA Hopeful to ‘C-USA cellar dweller’ in the matter of three weeks.

The Knights have played much better of late, winning three of their past four games, including wins over Tulsa and a road win at then-conference leader UTEP. 

Southern Miss comes into the game with a ton to play for.  The Golden Eagles and Coach Eustachy haven’t gotten much run, but they are actually a legitimate NCAA Bubble team.  They currently sit at 21-6 (9-4 in conference).  With a strong finish they could slip in as a #11 or #12.  Their pair of close, heart-breaking losses to Memphis really hurt them, but the rest of their losses aren’t doing them much good either; Ole Miss, Marshall, Colorado State and SMU.  None of those teams are awful, and CSU is actually pretty good, but none of those losses qualify as “good.”

Southern Miss is is a talented team, and should be favored in today’s game.  But, they aren’t.  Hmmm….that makes this a pretty easy selection.  Give me the Golden Eagles roughing up an overrated UCF squad in Orlando.

PICK:  Southern Miss +1

Please, just one win...please.

Duke Blue Devils -4 @ Virginia Tech Hokies

If it feels like we’ve been in this spot before with Seth Greenberg, it’s because we have.  It’s becoming almost an annual rite of passage that a regular season game in March is vital for the Hokies bubble dreams.

If you’ve been following college hoops for a while, you know that those dreams have usually turned into nightmares.

Tonight’s game represents an enormous chance for the Hokies to finally get a quality night’s sleep on Selection Sunday.  With a win tonight at home the Hokies Dance ticket is essentially punched.  The crowd in Blacksburg will be a huge advantage for them as well, with ESPN Gameday and all the festivities than accompany it going on.  However, this isn’t Duke’s first rodeo and certainly not a new experience facing a hostile crowd.

The correlation I like to use is this: Remember the Kansas @ Kansas State game two weeks ago?  It was an “upset” but one that followed a predictable formula.  Elite team travels to road team who view them as their chief rival.  The home team has a less-than-great record due to some losses early, but has played very well the two weeks leading up to the game.  The home team was highly ranked at the beginning of the season but has since been forgotten about.  The “forgotten”, inspired, talented and desperate home team plays their best game of the season, pulls off the huge “upset.”

Fans storm the floor.  Chaos ensues.

You know the recipe.  That’s exactly what is cooking up in Blacksburg, the perfect storm brewing for a huge bowl of upset soup.  The numbers defy it, but sometimes the human element outweighs the statistics.  Gimme the Hokies in a valiant home last-stand not only covering, but handing the Dukies their third loss of the season.

PICK:  Virginia Tech +4
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If Only We Could All be so "Off"

This is how you can tell proof-positive that Jimmer Fredette has clearly emerged as the nation's premier college basketball player and an almost sure-thing Naismith Award winner.

Not really a relevant pic, but are you complaining??

Nearly every major media outlet, sports website and talking head reported some variation on the "off night for Jimmer Fredette" two nights ago against Wyoming.  The senior scoring machine finished the game with 26 points in leading his team to a road conference win.

Granted, his shooting percentage was easily his lowest of the season, but 26 points on the road in a winning effort is about as amazing as a "bad game" gets.

A few more games as "awful" as that one, and Jimmer mania might truly get out of hand.

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When RPI's Lie

It isn't the first, and it probably isn't the lastg column the Maniac will subject you decrying the many flaws of the RPI system - but let me quickly clarify.  RPI isn't a bad tool, it is just a little too flawed to be the end-all be-all instrument so many of the talking heads on TV make it out to be.

For one, it fails to measure any consideration of how well/poorly a team actually played in a particular win or loss.  For example, Penn State's road loss at Purdue by one point on a last second buzzer beater by likely first team All American JuJuan Johnson is worth as little to the Nittany Lions as is Iowa's 75-52 defeat.

However for all it's foibles, I haven't found (nor do I have any desire to create) a better, more consistent and effective tool for accounting for strength of schedule and opponent quality rather than merely just wins and losses.

Here are a couple teams that jump out to me as either too high or too low, according to the RPI poll on February 2nd.

The Highs:

#2 - BYU:  Look, I like, ne', love, Jimmer Fredette as much as everyone else.  But I find it nearly impossible to completely trust a poll that has BYU #2... or so I thought.  Upon further review the Cougars, at 21-2 overall, own impressive wins over Arizona, UCLA, St. Mary's, Creighton, UNLV and San Diego State.  That's actually a pretty impressive hall.  They are certainly worthy of Top Ten status, but any ranking higher than six or seven for the Cougs is still a little too high.

#14 - North Carolina:  I've been banging this drum for about two weeks now, but Carolina is actually good...a really close to being really good.  Their RPI reflects our instinct here as well; Carolina is a Top 4 seed if the season ended today.

#20 - St. John's:  Look, the Duke win might end up getting the Johnnie's to the Tourney.  But #20?!?  Are you serious?  They have eight losses and are tied for 11th place in their own conference.

And Lows:

#68 - Duquesne:  Sick of hearing about the Dukes yet??  In all seriousness, at 16-5, 8-0 in the seventh or eighth best conference in the country makes #68 offensively low.  Then factor in the four of the five losses are to Penn State, George Mason, West Virginia and Pitt, and it is really hard to see this team anywhere lower than mid-forties at worst.

#84 - Gonzaga:  Same exact logic as above; good team with excellent losses.  The Zags are still a strong at-large contender in my book, forget the RPI in the 80's - it's absurd.  Especially when you see teams like Kansas State and Michigan State fiftysomething spots ahead.

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Can You Say "Trap Game"? BYU Falls in The Pit 86-77

It appears even the BYU Fightin' Fredette's are prone to emotional letdowns.

Riding high after their defeat of San Diego State Thursday night, the Cougars got avalanched and swarmed by media, heaping accolades on the Cougars (but mostly on Jimmer).  Today, just 48 hours later, BYU got dropped by New Mexico in an absolute classic trap game.

It's actually a worse loss than it sounds.  Yes, The Pit is a historically difficult place to play, but New Mexico really isn't very good this year.  They are a long shot for the NIT barring a turn around (and tonight's win is a decent jump start) and have virtually no chance of earning an at-large tourney bid. To make matters worse, San Diego State went into The Pit two weeks ago and emerged unscathed.

Jimmer is still the clubhouse leader for the Naismith Award, and even in a losing effort the nation's scorer didn't disappoint, dropping in 32 points on a respectable 12 of 26 shooting.  However any talk of BYU earninga #1 seed is effectively finished with today's loss, and even a #2 seems hopefully optimistic.

Up next for the Jimmer's is a trip to Wyoming followed by next weekend's visit from UNLV in a huge game for the Runnin' Rebs NCAA hopes.

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"Jimmer" is a Verb Meaning "To Score Relentlessly in Massive Quantities"

And then there was one.

Ohio State stands alone as the nation's only unbeaten team after Jimmer Fredette and the Jimmer Fredettes, er, BYU Cougars, handed San Diego State their first loss of the season 71-58.

Fredette all but solidified his First Team All-American status tonight and joined Kemba Walker and Jared Sullinger as the front runners for National POY, pouring in 43 points and absolutely dominating the Aztecs in arguably the best individual performance this season. As if his play on the floor wasn't enough, in a courtside interview after the game Fredette displayed the humility and team-first attitude that have endeared him to not just BYU fans, but fans all across the country.  It is honestly impossible not to love this guy.

Watching the tape from tonight's game, the first comparisons of recent college players that come to mind are Steph Curry and JJ Reddick.  They aren't perfect comparisons as there are subtle differences in their respective games.  Curry, when facing superiorly athletic teams tended to force shots and struggle handling the ball against constant double teams.  At times he scored at will, but in his junior year against teams like Duke and Purdue Curry clearly struggled without a reliable scoring option along side him to relieve pressure.

The main difference between Fredette and Reddick is the amount of time Fredette spends as BYU's primary ball handler.  Reddick was superior using screens and getting quality shots with accuracy and an exceptionally quick release.  Both players possess a keen ability to create their own shots by taking an aggressive dribble towards the basket and popping back to create the small window of space needed to get off a good look.  However, in general Reddick was more of a shooter running off screens constantly, a la Reggie Miller or Ray Allen, where Jimmer is more prone to taking the dribble all the way to the bucket and using his body to shield off bigger defenders and absorbing the contact.

As far as Dave Rose and his BYU teammates are concerned; Jimmer is incomparable.  San Diego State clearly had no answer for Fredette tonight as he pumped in a surprisingly NON season high 43 points on a blistering 14 of 24 shooting (that includes a perplexing missed goal-tending call as well).

If BYU and Fredette have aspirations of making it to the Final Four, they are going to face some teams with the quickness and length to make things much more difficult for Fredette.  A team like Duke with Nolan Smith or Ohio State's David Lighty, or even Texas with a stable of long, athletic wing players could pose a whole different set of challenges.

It's going to take a concerted team effort to corral the nation's best scorer.

Watching the game tonight, here is a quick Maniac scouting report of how to (attempt) to corral Jimmer:

1.  No switching on screens.  San Diego State did what is typically logical when defending a great scorer, and that is to frequently switch on ball screens.  However, Fredette was smartly able to exploit this by taking advantage of the quickness mismatch when a taller defender switched onto him.  Fredette is excellent at the "step-back" dribble to create just enough room for his lightning quick release to get a clean 3-point shot up.  Add in the fact that his range is legitimately anywhere inside 28 to 30 feet, and this creates a problem.

What needs to be done is to hedge high on ball screens; push him laterally and turn him away from the basket and allow the primary defender time to retreat back to Fredette.  No going under screens or switching or he will kill you.

2.  Face guard him AFTER he passes.  SDSU did a good job of forcing Fredette to pass many times.  However, nearly every single time he passed the ball he was able to run off a quick down screen or rub his defender free and get the ball right back as soon as he wanted.  After he passes it is imperitive to "jump" the cutter.  Basically bump him off his route like an NFL defensive back and force him to hand fight and run around frantically to get the ball back.

This is very frustrating for scorers and can get him off his rythym - as well as cause some frustration with the difficulty to even get the ball back in his hands.  He frequently begins the possession with the ball as he usually dribbles it up the court.  That makes it difficult to keep him from touching the ball, however there are ample opportunities to prevent him from getting it back - SDSU did a poor job of this tonight.

3.  Bring help to the on-ball defender "higher" on the court.  This doesn't mean "switch", rather it means turn all screens into double teams.  If I'm coaching against the Cougs, I'd gladly take my chances with someone, anyone else beating me.  If his teammates can get 35-40 points by knocking down open shots that present themselves with the constant double teaming on Fredette, so be it.

Fredette has a tendency to leave his feet to pass, which is what led to many of BYU's turnovers tonight (the only real weakness I saw in his game).  Constant double teaming 'higher' up on the court (i.e. - anywhere from 22 feet in, not just when he penetrates beneath the foul line extended) will force some turnovers and make it difficult for Fredette to create mid-range looks at the bucket.

Of course, all these things are easier said than done.  Take nothing away from Fredette's effort tonight; it was simply spectacular.  But don't be surprised if an athletic team from one of the BCS conferences makes the three above adjustments and knocks off the Cougars early than expected in the NCAA Tourney in a #7 over  #2 or a #6 / #3 'upset'.

I don't generally do scouting report columns, I know it is tough reading for you non-dork fans - but for my hardcore readers, I wanted to give you what I saw from watching tonight's game.  Any insights, opinions, etc. you gleamed from tonight's thriller are always welcome!  Post below, or send comments to chrisscheeren@yahoo.com

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San Diego State v. BYU - 10PM on CBS Sports Network

Here's a few helpful links to get you prepped for tonight's HUGE Mountain West game.  Let's hope it lives up to the hype better than the league's football "can't miss" game between TCU and Utah back in November!

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/preview?gid=201101260068

Good story featuring Jimmer Fredette (who you know) and D.J. Gay, point guard of San Diego State (who you might not...)

http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketball/story/Showdown-features-top-guards-in-Fredette-Gay-44098380

Maniac's Pick tonight - San Diego State +5.5 in a thriller

Gotta Love Jimmer

Seriously, how can you not love this kid?  He's like a white Steph Curry; a one-man scoring show.  He doesn't just score in absurd Pistol Pete-like quantities, he does it with a flair that is simply a blast to watch.

Even Jimmer might have outdone himself with this one last night.  Enjoy!



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Games to Watch - Saturday December 11th

For those of you who have the college football "in-between blues," that odd period where teams dangle in limbo for two to five weeks waiting for their bowl games...all of which mean absolutely NOTHING save for one, saddle up for a fantastic day of college hoops that will bring it from noon until well after midnight.


Here's a quick overview of a few games worth catching or at least DVR'ing.

12:00 PM:  UNLV @ Louisville - Both teams are off to flying starts, undefeated and already possessing a few quality wins.  Tomorrow is a great opportunity to find out if Louisville's fast start is an indication they can compete in the loaded Big East and also an opportunity for the left half of the country to get a chance to see a very good UNLV team play.  UNLV has had the Cards number, beating them in each of the past two seasons (Louisville teams that were better, at least on paper, than this year's squad.)

This might actually be the best game of the day, a great way to kick of some hoops watching before lunchtime.  For the UNLV kids, it will be like playing a game at 9AM with the time change.  That's tough to do, and I think they'll come out a little flat and jet lagged.  Give me the Cards laying 3.5

2:30 PM:  Wisconsin @ Marquette - This game has quietly become one of the better rivalry games in the country over the past few seasons.  Both teams have a strong similarity in that it seems every season they are picked somewhere near the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, and sure enough, every year they exceed expectations and head to the Tournament. 

This year looks to be playing out exactly the same way.  Both teams enter at 7-2, with their losses coming against ranked foes and in close games.  Both have a few quality wins under their belt but can desperatly use another one before tackling conference play in the two toughest conferences in the nation.

Marquette will have the valuable home crowd advantage but I have a feeling Wisconsin has a touch more discipline and a little more cohesion and poise at this early juncture in the season.  Gimme the Badgers +1.

3:15 PM:  Tennessee @ Pitt - The Vols have been one of the season's pleasant surprises.  Tomorrow will be one of Pearl's last games on the sidelines before his oddly-arranged SEC-only eight game suspension takes effect.  Both teams are athletic and very physically tough.  I like Pitt at home in a really good ball game but nine points is a lot to lay considering this will likely be a game in the fifties or sixties.  I'll take the Vols and the +9.

4:00 PM:  Kansas State @ Loyola (IL) -  Odd line of the day.  not sure how K-State is laying only 8.5.  Gimme the Wildcats in a 20+ point romp.

4:00 PM:  Dayton @ Old Dominion -  The Flyers are reeling, despite their 7-2 record.  However, this is a talented and experienced club that should turn the corner soon.  Old Dominion continues their aggressive schedule with yet another hopeful tourney team.  I think the Monarchs win at home, but I'll take the Flyers +10.5

4:30 PM:  Washington @ Texas A&M - Texas A&M can land a clear blow for the Big 12 versus the Pac 10 with a win today at home.  Texas A&M is off to a good start at 8-1, however their only win of note came over Temple.  Washington has been carrying the banner as the only ranked team in the Pac 10, but it's hard to put A&M any better than sixth in the loaded Big 12.  I'm not sure if Washington feels any pressure to prop up their sagging conference, but a loss today is actually pretty damaging to league's overall profile.  I'll take Washington on the road, minus one and a half.

5:15 PM:  Indiana @ Kentucky - One of my favorite rivalries takes place today, and though much of the shine has faded over the past decade with neither school managing to be good at coinciding times, it still means a ton to their respective fan bases.  Indiana is in year three of the Tom Crean Era, and call me a hater, but it doesn't seem any real progress has been made.  Meanwhile in the Bluegrass it took Calipari all of half a day to bring the 'Cats from "NIT" to "Final Four" caliber. 

There's still a pretty big hill to climb in Bloomington, and I don't think today will be a step in that direction.  Give me Big Blue laying the thirteen points.

6:00 PM:  Arizona @ BYU - Sean Miller's Cats seem to be on the right track to erasing the memory of last year's rare tourney absence.  It had been nearly thirty years since the Cats were left out, and I'm sure Miller would like to put another thirty years distance in the rear view mirror.  A win today in Provo would go a long way.  I think they'll get it.  Gimme Arizona +2.5

7:00 PM:  Virginia Commonwealth @ Richmond - The sneaky gem in today's bursting schedule is this top-tier matchup between the CAA and the A-10.  Both schools have designs on playing in March, however neither league is notorious for collecting armloads of at-large bids.  Both schools could really use the chip today's win would provide. 

VCU's two losses are quality; Tennessee and to lesser extent, South Florida.  They also boast quality wins over UCLA and Wake Forest.  Richmond's losses are a little less solid; Old Dominion and Iona, however their wins are better; particularly the win over Purdue.

This should be a really good game, likely close, so I'll take VCU +8

8:30 PM:  Gonzaga @ Notre Dame -  The Zags are really struggling, and at 4-4 can ill-afford many more losses if they plan to continue their decade-long NCAA Tournament streak.  Notre Dame was one of the season's early surprises until Kentucky took some of their shine Wednesday night.  The line on this one is huge at 10.5, a number I think reflects a lack of confidence in Gonzaga rather than a ton of faith in the Irish.  I'm not so sure that either is warranted.  Give me Gonzaga and the points, and don't be surprised if they clip them straight up.

Maniac's Picks: Louisville -3.5, Wisconsin +1, Tennessee +9, Kansas State -8.5, Dayton +10.5, Washington -1.5, Kentucky -13, Arizona +2.5, VCU +8, Gonzaga -10.5

Middling Majors

It hurts me greatly  to write it, and it saddens me to think it, but it must be said.

The "year of the mid-major" is dead.  It has been a long time since the college hoops landscape was as devoid of legitimate Final Four contenders outside the BCS leagues as it appears this season.  Even the "don't call us MID" major crowd has taken seismic steps backwards.

The Butler Bulldogs played Hickory Huskers for the nation Hoosier's dreams to within a soft bounce of a national championship last April.  Six scant months later the Bulldogs are closer to needing to win the Horizon league to make the tourney than they are to playing in any Final Fours.  They opened the season getting pummeled by a less-than-great Louisville squad.  Pitino might coach them up satisfactorily in this season of insane parity, but my earliest instincts tell me the Cards are headed for the NIT.   Today, Butler lost at home.  To MVC bottom tier Evansville.  Prior to heading to Hinkle, the Purple Aces suffered consecutive double-digit losses to Indiana and Middle Tennessee State.  Ouch.

The road doesn't get easier for Butler anytime soon.  Before seeking refuge in Horizon league play, Brad Stevens' Bulldogs still have to travel to Duke and Xavier.  At this point, even home games with Stanford and Utah seem less than automatic.

Speaking of Xavier, the Muskies entered the season joining Michigan State as the only schools in the country who have made the past three Sweet Sixteens.  Early indications are the Muskies won't be making it four. The season began with a dramatic comeback win over Western Michigan and an overtime tussle with the Mastadons of IPFW.  Xavier finished the Cancun Classic with two wins (over Iowa and Seton Hall, two bottom tier BCS'ers) before getting handled with relative ease by Old Dominion.

Granted ODU has the talent to return the the tourney for the second straight year, but the lopsided loss was just another example of how much early entries (Derrick Brown and Jordan Crawford) have finally caught up with their program.  With the possible exception of Gonzaga, no other mid-major is faced with the common legitimate possibility of losing players early to the professional ranks.  For Xavier, the defection of Crawford left a gaping offensive void they have yet to figure out how to replenish.  Junior point guard Tu Holloway has played as well as any lead guard in the country other than Kemba Walker, but someone else is going to have to help shoulder the load if the Muskies have any chance of being a solid tourney team.

If Butler's schedule is daunting, then Xavier's is murderous.  In addition to hosting Butler, the Muskies play Wofford, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Florida and Cincinnati before taking on a solid A-10 schedule featuring Temple, Dayton, Richmond and Rhode Island.

If 2006 was the mid-major high water mark, with at large bids flooding in from the Missouri Valley, C-USA, Colonial and others, 2010 might the drought.  Despite a clearly level landscape outside of 8-10 teams this year, very few of the mid-majors have been able to stack those early season chips that are so vital come selection Sunday.

Here's a quick breakdown of some of the hopefuls and their early season returns through Thanksgiving.

Conference USA

Memphis - Perhaps the only lock on the list. Right now the Tigers are 5-0 with wins over Miami and LSU.  They still get cracks at Tennessee, Georgetown and Kansas this year to notch another "good win" to add to their profile.  After last year's rare anomaly the Tigers are once again clearly the class of the league.
Tourney Outlook:  Near Lock


Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are as good as they have been in a long time, starting 3-0 with wins over South Florida and South Alabama.  The problem might be their strength of schedule.  With only games at Mississippi and Cal to boost their profile they better get at least one of two versus Memphis in addition to avoiding more than one or two bad losses

Tourney Outlook:  Possible

UCF - Don't look now, but the Knights are off to a 5-0 start after beating instate foe South Florida last week.  With games against Florida, Miami, and UMass the Knights get several shots at some good wins.  Same as above with Southern Miss, only even more important, the Knights really need to get one against Memphis to get a second galnce.

At-large Outlook:  Highly Unlikely

Others to Watch:  UAB, Houston, UTEP, Tulsa

Metro Atlantic:

Siena - The Saints have been March darlings the past few seasons.  To recapture the magic they will likely need to win their league tourney this year.  At 2-3, with losses to Vermont (ouch), Butler and Minnesota, the Saints already fanned on their best chances at capturing a profile win.

At-large Outlook: Highly Unlikely

Others to Watch:  None


Colonial:

VCU - Shaka Smart's team is in decent position to earn an at-large bid if they can handle their business inside league play.  At 4-1 with wins over Wake Forest and UCLA and a competitive loss to Tennessee their early profile is solid.  They have interesting separation games with Wofford and UAB on their schedule before entering league play.  This is a good ball club who should win 21-23 games, and earn a bid.
At-Large Outlook:  Good

Old Dominion - The Monarchs won their tournament over in Cancun, albeit over a field that sounded better than it is.  The wins over Clemson and Xavier should prove valuable chips, and the narrow home-loss to Georgetown might actually help more than it hurts.  They get three more good chances; Richmond, Dayton and Missouri will add some strength to the Monarchs' schedule.  Grab two of those three and it's hard not to see ODU going back to the Dance.
At-Large Outlook:  Good

Others to Watch:  George Mason, James Madison,

MAC:  Long gone are the conferences glory days, Miami (OH) and Kent State crashing the Sweet 16 and the MAC meriting the occassional at-large bid.  Their aren't many challengers this year either, though Kent State at 6-1 with games upcoming Florida, USF, James Madison and UAB they could play their way into the discussion if they can take all four (especially the Florida game).
At-Large Outlook:  Doubtful

Others to Watch:  None

Missouri Valley:  Remember in 2006 when the MVC sent four teams to the dance?  Yeah, so does the Valley.  They remember it with a wistful smile and a distant gaze... those days seem pretty far away.  Granted Northern Iowa captured the nation's fancy after their stunning upset over Kansas, but with perennial dancer Creighton slumping and Wichita State being left on the the chopping block it was yet another one-bid year for the MVC.

Prospects look a little brighter this year, but no one is a clear lock.

Creighton:  We'll find out soon.  The three-point loss to Iowa State might up being worse than they thought and their four wins are pretty pedestrian.  They need to sweep their upcoming contests with Northwestern, Nebraska, BYU and St. Joseph's to merit any consideration.
At-Large Outlook:  Murky

Wichita State:  Their 3-point loss to UConn might wind up being more valuable than some of their wins when the selection committee starts weighing resumes.  They get shots at Tulsa, LSU and a tough trip to San Diego State to prove their mettle.  Their schedule won't do them a ton of favors, but winning those aforementioned games will at least get them in the discussion paired with a good conference record.
At-Large Outlook:  Decent

Others to Watch:  Northern Iowa, Missouri State

Mountain West:  This is easily the best non-BCS conference in the country.  One could make a pretty compelling argument that the MWC is stronger than the Pac-10 this season.  San Diego State is a near lock for the tourney, and I'd be very surprised if UNLV and BYU don't dance as well. New Mexico's eyebrow-raising 25 point loss to Cal (who subsequently lost to Notre Dame in a game they scored FIVE points in a half) drops them from the "likely" pile and into "others to watch"

At-Large Outlooks:  SDSU - near lock;  UNLV - very solid;  BYU - very good
Others to Watch:  Utah, New Mexico

Atlantic-10:  The mid-major darling de jour might take a small step back this year.  Xavier shows real signs of offensive struggles.  Combined with a daunting schedule and the Muskies might be sweating Selection Sunday for the first time in five years.  Dayton and Temple have the talent to make it out of the first week of the tourney, but haven't put it on full display quite yet.  Richmond and Rhode Island look to build on last season's progress while St. Joes and UMass look to restore former glory.

All in all, this is a good, competitive league that should get at least 3 bids in March, however who those three bids go to will be quite a scramble.  We'll do a complete A-10 Breakdown in a separate article.


This is shaping up early as a year in which a TON of bids will be up for the taking.  Doing a quick rundown of the Big 6 conferences, I count only thirteen LOCKS, with most of leagues being a complete mess from second or third all the way down to ninth or tenth.  That means there are some bids for the grabbing.

It remains to be seen if the little guys hands will be quicker than the giants.

Rating Saturday's Top Games

The NFL playoffs start today, and the Maniac's beloved Bengals will host our (yep, I even say "our" like it is possible I'll make a tackle tomorrow) second playoff game in twenty years. As long time tortured season tickets holders, my whole family is super psyched.

That said, there is still some fantastic college hoops worth catching early, or DVR'ing for later.

FIVE STARS:

Purdue @ Wisconsin (1:30 EST - Big Ten Network)

Hardly anyone wins at the Kohl Center other than the Badgers. They have already dispatched a fantastic Duke team there this season, next up they'll try to do the same to the Boilermakers. A win for Wisconsin puts them solidly in the mix to win the Big Ten title and lurches them into the same sentance as Purdue and Michigan State. A win for the Boilers cements them, in my mind, as the clear conference favorite and a huge step towards capturing a #1 seed in March.

FOUR STARS:

Northern Iowa @ Illinois State (4 EST - ESPN)
One of the nation's best kept secrets travels to dangerous Illinois State and perhaps the conference's best player in Osiris Eldridge. The Valley is notorious for beating each other up all season long, preventing two or three teams to seperate from the pack and bolster their at-large chances. Today is an opportunity for Northern Iowa to do just that.

Mississippi @ Mississippi State - The two best teams in the SEC West lock up in a fantastic rival that should be amplified by both teams collective talent level this season. The winner gets an early jump on winning the West.

BYU @ UTEP (9 EST) - This game is a huge feather for both in their at-large profile, though it likely means more to UTEP with BYU a pretty solid lock for March unless they really falter in conference. C-USA is much improved while constant giant Memphis is down. This is the year they might snatch multiple NCAA bids, but it will be competitive with UAB, Houston, Tulsa and Memphis all jockeying. This one is huge for the Miners.

UConn @ Georgetown (Noon, ESPN) - Hard to say this one kills the loser, but it is a good chance to see two of the countries better team; though still very flawed teams, lock horns. Both could use a solid conference win in the uber-competitive BEast. Let's be honest, any game in that conference not involving DePaul, Rutgers, Providence or USF is at least a 3-star game.

Marquette @ Villanova (2 EST) - Marquette could very easily be 3-0 in conference, ranked nationally and be enjoying the media crush that has bestowed upon Pitt this week. Instead, they find theselves in a precarious spot; lose at Nova and they fall to 1-3 and become an early "bubble" candidate...

Wake Forest @ Miami -Two teams that can actually make a claim to being "underrated" despite very good records and playing in the ACC. The winner today can make a good case for being in the Top 15 in the country and gets a valable chip for late season jockeying through the middle of the ACC pecking order.

THREE STARS:

Florida @ Vanderbilt (Noon) - Think Florida's hot start wasn't a bit of a mirage? Vegas has the Gators as seven point dogs to the 'Dores

St John's @ Louisville (Noon) - St John's better get rolling soon or it is yet another empty postseason and bottom half BEast finish.

Niagara @ Siena - Two best MEAC teams go head to head

Duke @ Georgia Tech - great litmus test for the young Jackets

Kansas State @ Missouri - great chance for Mizzou to jump on radar, great chance for Cats to show they deserve a top ten ranking

Ohio State @ Minnesota - looking forward to seeing if Evan Turner is all the way back in a tricky road stop for the Bucks.

Georgia @ Kentucky - always a good rivalry, it will be interesting to see if the Cats play with the killer instinct needed to bury a lesser opponent.

Oklahoma @ Baylor - OK Sooners, you want to stay relevant in 2010, you need to start winning soon. Today at Baylor would be a good start.

Cincinnati @ Seton Hall - Both teams fancy themselves as tourney teams in 2010. The Pirate fall to 0-4 with a loss and will be buried pretty deep. Meanwhile the Cats need the road win to stop their skid and remain at .500 in conference play.

Tulsa @ Houston - A nice chance to get out to the front of C-USA pack in the conference opener.

West Virginia @ Notre Dame - A chance for the Irish to get their first big win of the season, and boy do they really need a few to bolster that resume.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State - Something tells me that only one of the these two teams find themselves on the favorable side of the bubble in ten weeks. A head-to-head win sure never hurts.

Gonzaga @ Portland - A big chance for Portland to get back to relevant. A nice chance for Gonzaga to smack back the uprising and show the WCC who is still boss.

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Anonymous "Signature"

The phrase de' jour this season in college hoops is "signature win." Everyone needs to have their "signature win." Providence got theirs this week beating Pitt. Cincinnati lacks one, and it will likely be their bubble popping lest they win tonight against West Virginia. Maryland got theirs this weekend taking down Carolina in overtime; ditto for BC's bookend wins over Duke and the aforementioned Heels.

But at what point does the "signature" begin to fade?? Last night ESPN threw up a graphic of the "signature wins" for the ACC's bottom six teams. FOUR of them read "Wake Forest."

Leading me to question....

Just a thought. I don't hate Wake, just think they have gotten more mileage out of the timing of when they won more than any team in the nation. Their resume, is quite comparable to a lot of teams ranked 15-25, only they didn't lose out of conference (nor did they beat anyone other than BYU). So what exactly does a "signature win" entail??

Anyhow, several teams will be seeking their "signature wins" this week as we franticly race towards Selection Sunday:

Thursday:

West Virginia @ Cincinnati - Cincy needs a win over Huggs to stay alive
Minnesota @ Illinois - Gophers in danger of sliding onto..and off the bubble
Memphis @ UAB (9pm) - Darth Vaden needs to strike back in a major way to keep the Blazers slim at-large hopes alive
USC @ Cal - Last gasp for USC as well tonight at Cal

Saturday:

Clemson @ Florida State (2pm) - big game for both seeding-wise
Notre Dame @ UConn (2pm) - Do or die for the Irish...again.
Illinois St @ Creighton (2pm) - Great game; Jays can not afford any losses before MVC title game to snag an at-large bid
Arizona @ Washington - Win for 'Cats takes them from "bubble" to "lock" status
Duke @ VA Tech - Hokies got big win at Clemson, a win over Duke might put them in the Dance
LSU @ Kentucky (4pm) - Kentucky is in danger of playing themselves out of the tourney
Utah @ BYU - One would think both teams are safely in, but the winner removes all doubt
Utah St @ Nevada - The Aggies are 25-3, and still not quite a lock, they can ill-afford to give away another L and be safely in.

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Bubblin' on Tuesday

Here's a quick guide to tonight's biggest bubble-impacting contests.

Penn State @ Ohio State:

Who'da thunk it? The Buckeyes looked to be tourney locks a month ago, and no one thought Penn State would even be in the mix before the season started. Most pundits have OSU just in and PSU just out. Think tonight swings the pendulum a little?!?
Maniac's Pick: Penn State +6.5

Pitt @ Providence:

Call it the Friars' last stand. For weeks we all tried to find reasons to convince the public the Friars' had earned their dance ticket. Well, most of us are just about out of ways to justify them getting in. 8th in the Big East or not, they just haven't done enough to merit inclusion in the Big Dance.

So tonight they get their chance.
Maniac's Pick: Pitt -9

Florida St @ Boston College:

BC has been great against the Golliath's...yet average against the rest of the conference. Their perch on the bubble is precarious at best, but another resume win tonight over the Seminoles should cement their tourney status.

FSU meanwhile is the opposite; they have done what they were supposed to in conference but not gotten that big marquee win. BC doesn't fit that bill either, but the Noles can ill-afford a loss as they chase a Top-4 seed.
Maniac's Pick: FSU +2.5

Florida @ LSU:

I know you have heard me say it before, but seriously, what is with the media hard-on for LSU?!? I can;t recall a team fattening up on more bums and raising in the polls as steadily as the Tigers over the past four weeks. Once again, let me remind you in their non-conference games they did not beat a single team in the RPI Top 100.

Staggering. Meanwhile, the Gators remain my frustrating sleeper team that needs to wake up. I think Billy D and Calathes get it done tonight, and I think the committee will punish LSU for the scheduling transgressions and give them no better than an #8 seed...
Maniac's Pick: Florida +4.5


Two other bubble games, but no picks:

Texas A&M and Nebraska play in a virtual elimination game tonight. Both still have work to do with a win, but a loss seals their fate.

BYU and San Diego State hook up in a great MWC matchup, BYU is "in" while San Diego St is "out" in most projections (including ours) but their resumes are much more similar than most people realize. Tonight's tilt gainst Steve Fischer's squad in San Diego is quietly one of the more impactful games in the country.

A win tonight would be "fab" for Fisher

Two week stretch run really gets rolling tonight...enjoy

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Tuesday's Picks

The Maniac Pick's Em - Tuesday, January 13th

The SEC may have no ranked teams, but tonight's Kentucky v. Tennessee game is a big one. Rivalry aside, both teams have a lot at stake in the matter. For Kentucky, their spot in the Big Dance is far from sure at this point. Only a ferocious late season run kept their 17 year streak in tact. A road win over conference big boy Tennessee would go a long way to making Selection Sunday joyous rather than anxious.

Maniac's Pick: Kentucky +6.5

This scene last year catapulted the "Cats to the tourney

Poor Indiana gets yet another chance to broadcast their misery natiowide when they visit a hungry Buckeye team that cannot afford to many more Big Ten missteps. Does ESPN not have the option of NFL-esue "flex scheduling"? This is like the seventh IU game already this season...

That said, the number is a big one, and Ohio State is not an offensive juggernaut. They win, but I like the Hoosier Pride keeping in under the number
Maniac's Pick: Indiana +17

Florida State looked like brutal defense socking it out with Blue Devils Saturday. Unfortunatly their offense looked "brutal" as well, and not in a good way. The broadcast team made it sound lik FSU is a sure-fire NCAA team this year. I am not sure how they figure that in a conference wheer they are AT BEST fifth. It is an interesting muddle in the middle; NC State, Maryland, Miami, Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech all seem to be fairly even to me. If FSU wants to make good on ESPN's words, they need a big road win tonight. I think they'll get it.
Maniac's Pick: FSU +4.5

TCU travels to BYU is a sneaky-good game tonight. Vegas has the Horned Frogs getting 15. Take the points and enjoy the evening. Let's call this the LOCK of the day.

Maniac's Pick: TCU +15 (LOCK)

Wide A-Wake: Demon Deacons Notch Impressive Win Over BYU

One of the most intriguing non-conference matchups of the season did not disspoint. Wake Forest took their unblemished record into Provo to meet up with the 12-1 Cougars.

Both teams put up points all night, but not in a "no defense" way; rather in an exciting up tempo contest highlighted by excellent offensive efficiency. The game was a one or two possession game for most of the second half before the Deacons hit some big free throws and got two big stops in the game's final minute to preserve a 94-87 victory.

Jeff Teague continued his surprising All-American campaign, notching 30 points and 5 assists to help push Wake to 14-0.

Up Next:

BYU gets a bit of a breather, facing Western Oregon, Colorado St, and TCU.

Wake Forest has one week to prepare for the daunting task of slaying the North Carolina Goliath. The good news for the Deacons? They have eight days to stoke the fires of what will undoubtedly be one of the most festive crowds Joel Coliseum has hosted in a while.

Saturday's Best Games - Jan 3rd.

In between bowl fever and the start of the NFL playoffs, it is easy for college hoops to get lost in the sportsfan's shuffle. However, Saturday is chock full of games worth tuning in for. Here is a rundown on Saturday's finest.

FIVE STARS:

12pm Pitt @ Georgetown - Can Georgetown take down the top two teams in the conference (and two of the top three in the nation) in the same week? They'll be on their home floor, and it is obvious Greg Monroe will not be afraid of Pitt's interior defenders, seeing how he didn't bat an eye at Hasheem Thabeet.

8pm Wake Forest @ BYU - Must be "east coast bias." I can't think of any other reason why the Lee Cummard and the Cougs aren't ranked (ditto for UNLV), but these two teams enter the game a combined 23-1. The winner puts a huge feather in their cap come Selection Sunday.

8pm Creighton @ Illinois State - I might be becoming a bit of an MVC honk, but I honestly think this is the 2nd best game of the day. Creighton (12-2) has been the big kid on the block for years while Illinois State (13-0) has been the low bird on the totem pole. We will find out tomorrow night how much (if any) things have changed.

FOUR STARS:

12pm Ohio State @ Minnesota - Ohio St skidded past Iowa coming off their first loss throttling by WVA. Minnesota came into Big Ten play unbleminshed...then got their doors blown off by Michigan State. Tubby's Gophers don't want an 0-2 start to blemish all the positives of 2008.

2pm Tennessee @ Kansas - Two good teams square off in one of the nation's toughest places to win. Kansas is not ranked, but a win a the Phog never hurts the resume.

THREE STARS:

2pm Penn State @ Wisconsin - Don't look now, but Bo Ryan's Badgers appear to be a force once again in the Big Ten after an opening dismantling of Michigan (who beat UCLA and Duke). Penn State is off to a 12-2 start, but a win in Madison might be asking a bit much.

4pm NC State @ Florida - The Gators haven't made the strides that many expected so far in 2008-09. A home loss to the Pack would be another tough obstacle to overcome heading into a balanced, if not great, SEC.

4pm Wyoming @ Utah - The Ute's a fresh off a big win over Gonzaga...but I suppose a lot of teams can boast that this year. Meanwhile Wyoming (11-3) needs as many wins as they can get to make up for a less-than-stellar non conference schedule. The MWC is really deep and good this year. It will be interesting to see if Wyoming is one of the teams that can make noise.

TWO STARS:

2pm Xavier @ Virginia - The Muskies look to stop a 2-game skid in Charlottesville. The Cavs would love a big win before entering a ACC that appears to be a cut above their 2009 talent level.

4pm East Carolina @ Clemson - I had ECU on the Maniac Radar earlier this season. Then they lost by 41 to Wake. Expect Clemson to cruise to 14-0, though the Pirates do have the talent to compete for a 2nd to 4th finish in C-USA.

4pm Indiana @ Iowa - Let the carnage begin. The Hoosiers travel to Iowa to deliver the "bye week" in person. The Hoosiers enter off a home loss to Lipscomb (google it.) and are clearly Number Eleven in the Big Ten.


UPSET ALERT:

These three teams need to be on the watch for upset-minded foes who just might be capable of shooting their way to a big upset win.

* West Virgina @ Seton Hall
* Butler @ Valparaiso
* Wake Forest @ BYU