Stock Up, Stock Down - Updating the VERY Fluid Bubble Picture

Selection Sunday is barely three weeks away and the scramble for position is starting to heat up.  Here's a quick recap of who helped their cause in the last five days and who is beginning to teeter.

STOCK UP:

Kansas State - The Wildcats saved their season Monday night with a convincing win over #1 Kansas.  Kudos to Jimmy Dykes of ESPN, who before the game said that if State had any chance of pulling the upset, senior Jacob Pullen needed to have a "Jimmer Fredette game." 

Pullen did just that, scoring a career-high 37 points.  The win resurects the Wildcats tourney life...for now.  Those two losses to Colorado are still a tough hurdle to overcome, particualrly if the Buffaloes can finish strong.

Boston College - I'm still not sold on the Eagles tourney worthiness, but their 76-72 win over Maryland moves them into much better position in the down ACC.

North Carolina - The Tarheels are still a Top 4 seed in the Maniac's book.  Their road win at Clemson all but assured them second place in the ACC, and put the final nail in Clemson's already weak NCAA chances.

Colorado State - Don't look now, but the Rams are one of the nation's most surprising at-large contenders.  I am not sure if the MWC can pull four bids, so it is imperative they keep pace with UNLV these last three weeks.  Saturday's win over New Mexico was enormous for CSU, and the final nail in Coach Alford's New Mexico Lobos' coffin.

The Rams still control their own destiny.  The host UNLV, and travel to BYU and San Diego State in three of their final five games.  Take two of those three and avoid any slip-ups and the Rams are in.  Easier said than done, but if you would have told and CSU fans the previous scenario back in November, I assure you they'd have taken it with a huge grin.

Temple - The Owls went on the road and hammered Dayton.  The Owls are all but a lock at this point, and have a shot at creeping as high as a #5 or #6 if they finish strong (which they seem to do every year).

Florida - We wrote about the Florida v. Tennessee game at length, so no need to rehash the ugliness.  But for Billy D, the Gators are nearing lock status.  With a stong finish they could creep as high as a #4, however with a tailspin they could slide all the way down to the #9-#10 range.

Memphis - Back to back wins over Southern Miss and UAB (Sat & Wed) all but clinch the Tigers as a tourney team in the Maniac's book.

St. John's - Lavin and the Johnnies got a huge win, 59-57 at Cincinnati Sunday.  ESPN has them as a #7 currently.  The followed up the win with a 80-68 win over Marquette - a huge win made even bigger by how much it damaged their fellow Big East bubble denizen's chances  We still have them holding in the #9 range - but definitely a tourney team barring a late collapse. 

Cincinnati - Yes, they lost in the aforementioned game, but the Wednesday pasting of Louisville moves the Bearcats into really good position to capture a well-deserved tenth bid for the Big East.


Virginia Tech - The Hokies are making a late surge towards finally ending up on the right side of the bubble.  Sunday's 102-74 win over Georgia Tech was an impressive offensive display.  Tuesday's pasting of Maryland moves them even closer, and they are beginning to separate them from the ACC bubble pack. 

Butler - The Bulldogs are making a furious rush to get back in the at-large discussion.  They've now won five straight, including wins over Wisc-Milwaukee, Wright State and Cleveland State to climb back to 11-5 in the Horizon League.


STOCK DOWN:

Duquesne - The Dukes tourney hopes took a devestating blow with Saturday's home loss to Xavier.  It isn't so much that the loss is bad more than it was the Dukes one great chance to earn a validating win that slipped through their fingers.  Despite their 11-2 A10 record, they still have only one Top 50 win to their resume (and eight losses).

Southern Miss & UAB - Both fell victim to conference bully Memphis this week; their respective tournament hopes might have fallen victim with the losses.  Neither is dead, but both have a huge road ahead of them, particularly Southern Miss who is nearing "must win the conference tourney" status.

Northern Iowa - Their at-large hopes gasped their last breath Saturday in their 18-point home loss to Wichita State.  The Shockers are looking good for March; the Panther will need to pull a shocker if they hope to Dance again this year.

UNLV - The Reb's missed a golden opportunity Saturday, losing 63-57 at home to San Diego State.  UNLV needs to finish strong to earn a third bid for the MWC (and hold off Colorado State).

Georgia - The Bulldogs Wednesday night loss to Vandy was a damaging one.  Georgia falls to 6-5 in the SEC and just 17-8 overall.  It's fair to say they MUST win one of their next two games; at Tennessee and at Florida to stay in the tourney picture.

February 9th National Roundup

So many teams, so few spots..

It's the time of year where there are about ten good games being played for every one you can actually sit down and watch.  Such is life in February for us college hoop die-hards, especially this year with the ubiquitous "soft-bubble."

Some of you might recall one of the first columns of the season talking about the relative lack of  strength nationwide.  It wasn't an early season exageration, I turned out to be exactly right.  However don't confuse "down year" with "boring year."  If anything, this year's final four week scramble might be the most entertaining pre-tourney finish we have seen in years.

Here's a quick rundown of the day's more important results.  A seperate series of columns will be devoted to specifically addressing each team's at-large chances.

Big East:

Georgetown, whom the Maniac liked as the best team in the conference heading into conference play has finally begun to reward our confidence after it looked tragically misplaced during the Hoyas 1-3 start in conference play.  Tonight they captured their fifth straight BEast win, taking down Syracuse in the Carrier Dome for the first time in eight years.  The win should escalate Georgetown back into the Top Ten and still in play for a #1 (but more likely a #2) seed.

Louisville has been the most pleasant surprise in the conference, and possibly in the entire country.  It was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and possibly even a NIT season.  However, Preston Knowles and the Cards have been fantastic.  It looked like they were on the verge of capturing yet another enormous conference win at Notre Dame tonight, until surprise BEast Player of the Year candidate Ben Hansbrough took over.  The senior standout helped the Irish force overtime, then spearheaded a 10-0 run to start the extra frame as Notre Dame walked away with a huge win.  The Irish, projected as a bubble team at best preseason are now a solid candidate for a #1 seed (though like G'Town, likely a #2 or #3) and have emerged as a nice darkhorse Final Four contender.

Marquette is nothing if not exciting.  Perhaps no team this season has lost more heartbreaking games to elite teams than the Warriors.  Tonight, in a game they should have won easily, they again showed their affinity for heart-pounders.  After trailing for most of the game, the Warriors eeked out a 59-58 win at South Florida, and more importantly kept the at-large tourney hopes afloat.  They are by no means safely in, but a loss to cellar-dweller USF would have been a crippling blow to their chances.

Meanwhile Villanova helped prove that ANY road game is a tough game in the nation's power conferences, dropping a 77-76 game at Rutgers that could come back to haunt them in their pursuit of a Top 2 seed in March.

Big Ten:

Ohio State has been the big story of 2011 as the nation's lone unbeaten team for more than two weeks now.  However, everyone else in the Big Ten has looked at times tourney-worthy (with the exception of perhaps Iowa and Indiana), and at other times simply terrible.

That rocky road continued tonight as Wisconsin had to fight for their lives to force overtime and eventually squeak out a 62-59 win over lowly Iowa. 

Michigan continued their recent solid play with a relatively easy 75-66 home win over Northwestern.  It is likely too late for Michigan to earn an at-large bid, barring a remarkable finish to the season, but the win tonight did officially put to rest any aspirations Northwestern might have held of snapping their lifetime streak of missing the NCAA Tourney.  Michigan moved to 15-10 (5-7) with the win, while Northwestern fell to 14-9 (4-8), making even an NIT bid look ambitious at this point.

Tomorrow has two more interesting and do-or-die Big Ten games when Penn State travels to reeling Michigan State and Illinois travels to Minnesota for a game that looks more and more like one that could vault the winner to the Tourney and the loser to the NIT.

Conference USA:

It may not happen, but I still contend this is a multiple-bid league, possibly as many as three bid merited even.  Memphis dodged an enormous bullet tonight in Orlando when Antonio Barton hit a three pointer on a pass delivered from his Conference USA freshman-of-the-year brother Will, with two seconds remaining to clip UCF 63-62.  The win keeps Memphis's bubble hopes strong, while for UCF any semblance of optimism from their 14-0 start have fully evaporated with their still-going eight game losing streak.

Meanwhile UAB passed their bubble-test with ease, handling their business with a 64-48 win at Marshall.  The win moved UAB to 17-6 (7-3) and should improve their already Top 40 RPI.  It was a good win for the Blazers, even it isn't an eye-popping one.  Marshall has already beaten West Virginia and Memphis this season.

SEC:

Florida ended any remote chances South Carolina might have been clinging to with their 79-60 win in Colombia.  The Gators moved to 19-5 (8-2) and are looking more and more like a Top 4 seed come tourney time.

Last night was a more action-packed evening for the conference, with Bruce Pearl's return spoiled with a 73-61 loss to Kentucky at Rupp Arena.  Tennessee might be the most difficult team in the field of 68 to seed (assuming they even make the tourney), as their record merits a low seed, but their stunning quality of victories (Villanova, Pitt, VCU, Missouri State, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Memphis) reads more like a #5 or #6 seed at worst.  However at just 15-9 (5-4) the Vols would be wise to avoid many losses in the final few weeks of the season.

Georgia is also a bubble-team, though they lack some of the huge resume wins of their counterpart in Knoxville.  They let a golden opportunity slip away last night, losing to Xavier 65-57 on their home floor.

Saturday is a huge day in the SEC, as Kentucky travels to Vanderbilt, and the Gators host the desperate Tennessee Volunteers.

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Quick Rundown of a few of the Night's Biggest Wins

Bubble talk usually focuses more on the disappointing aspect rather than the optimistic; meaning it's usually only the "bubble" if a team has under achieved.  However, the bubble goes both ways, so here's a quick rundown of some teams that helped the NCAA chances with good wins this week.

Some of you have politely pointed out that the Maniac is a moron and that Southern Miss isn't any good and that Conference USA isn't getting multiple bids into the tourney.  Those of you (and you know who you are!) who have been so kind as to email your, um, "concerns" might be right on #1 and #3, but not the middle morsel of information.  Southern Miss is a good ballclub.  And tonight they earned what might turn out to be a season-saving win, knocking off UAB in Birmingham 75-71. 

The win moves Southern Miss to 17-5 (6-3) and a half-game ahead of UAB, Memphis and UTEP atop the conference standings.  If the NCAA had truly sold out for the monster payday and expanded the tourney to 96, no doubt all four of these teams would be dancing.  However, at the current 68 it is going to be a close call down the stretch for all four.  A win on the road over one of your prime competitors is enormous.

The Maniac continues to stand on an island regarding the Golden Eagles and their tourney merit.  Not one single major media outlet, ESPN, FOx Sports, CBS, Yahoo - have included them in a single mock bracket all season.  I'm sure I'll get a few wrong, but when they DO earn their at-large bid, feel free to Tweet of my incomparable hoops genius...

In the Maniac's bracket, I have both Southern Miss AND UAB in, with Memphis being in the first four out.  UTEP probably has the longest odds, despite having an identical record to Memphis and UAB, because of their lack of any significant non-conference wins.

In the Atlantic 10 the Maniac's second pet team for 2011, the Duquesne Dukes kept doing what they have all season -  absolutely obliterate conference opponents.  This time the victim was George Washington by an 84-59 tally.  With Xavier's surprising loss at Charlotte, Duquesne moves into sole possession of the conference lead at a perfect 8-0.

In the ACC, two of the teams we thought would be good, then looked bad early so we wrote off as lousy, are actually pretty good again.  Make sense?

Virginia Tech continued their profile rehab, winning 77-69 at NC State.  The win lifted the Hokies to 15-6 (5-3).  Their non-conference losses to Kansas State, UNLV and Purdue do little to damage their overall resume.  If they can scrape back to 11-5 or even 10-6, they should have little to be nervous about on Selection Sunday.

Meanwhile North Carolina handled their business last night on the road at Boston College, winning easily and very impressively, 106-74, to run their league record to a tidy 6-1.  That's good for a first place tie with the much heralded Dukies (Duke moved a half-game back in front with tonight's win over Maryland).

Harrison Barnes had a season-high 26 points and is showing glimpses of being the player everyone expected him to be instantly.  Instead, his matuaration process has taken some time to evolve; and is still evolving, but as his play continues to improve Carolina is growing into a multi-dimensional team with a ton of length and talent. 

In our latest Bracketeering we have the Tarheels projecting to the #4 line - not too far off of where long-forgotten lofty expectations were prior to the season...


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Memphis and the 13 Dwarfs?

For most of Conference USA's "rebirthed existence" Memphis played big time basketball. The rest of the conference didn't. Why sugarcoat the reality that Conference USA in the blink of an eye transformed from a conference on par with the Big East, Big 12 and maybe even the ACC to a mere one-bid league; a league that was fodder for the Memphis Tigers much the same way that the WCC fed Gonzaga or the old Big West existed seemingly only to fatten the Jerry Tarkanian-bred UNLV calves.

Consider this. Prior to last season Memphis had gone more than three years without dropping a single conference game. The rest of the league were just Idahos to Calipari's Boise State.

A year ago, in a domino of circumstances, Calipari left for the greener pastures of the blue-er grass (Kentucky, not Boise State's smurf turf), the nation's best recruiting class evaporated right before 32-year old rookie head coach Josh Pastner's eyes, four or five schools boasted junior and senior dominated quality rosters. Suddenly Conference USA was living up to the first part of their name, a "conference" once again.

The stars were beginning to align for C-USA. If not "stars", at least 3 and 4-star recruits and programs led by NCAA Tournament experienced coaches. UTEP and Derrick Carachter gave Butler a tough game in the opening round of the NCAA tourney. Houston, buoyed by Aubrey Coleman and their surprising conference tourney run vaulted a second team into the Big Dance. The conference was full of solid ball clubs. While Memphis had their "down year" they still were a bubble team through most of February and headed to the NIT along with solid Tulsa and UAB teams. Even the lower portion of the league was beginning to blossom. UCF looked to be a program on the rise, not just in notoriety with the arrival of both MJ progeny, but also in ability of play. Marshall boasted 7-foot freshman sensation Hassan Whiteside and played eventual Final Four participant WVU to within a bucket in their own gym. Seven or eight teams could be considered legitimate postseason possibilities.

In short, C-USA was making a case (though clearly still behind the A-10) to be the best "non-BCS" league in the country.

Flash forward to the opening weekend of the 2010-2011 season and the shine is already beginning to tarnish. Sadly, for a league that appeared to be on the cusp of a breakthrough, it might be closer to slipping back to "Memphis AND...." territory.

Three of the better non-Memphis teams stumbled mightily out of the gate. Houston needed OT to eek out a 1-point win over Nicholls State. And they were the bright spot.

UTEP, considered to be among the conference's leading contenders for "multiple bid" status lost at home... to Pacific. Tulsa answered the question of "how will they fare losing Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh" with a resounding "ouch", dropping a home game to Appalachian State.

In the spirit of fairness, there were a few bright spots. UCF looks like a team that continues to move towards viability with a new arena, a new coach, and two of the best classes in school history with their sophomores and this year's incoming freshman class. Southern Miss and Coach Eustachey (yes, the same guy who took Iowa State to within a game of the Final Four) took his Golden Eagles to Tampa and knocked off BEast also ran South Florida.

Only time will tell if the conference can continue to emerge or if it fades back into the insignificance that has plagued it for most of the latter half of the decade. Fortunatly, unlike it's football counterpart, first impressions are simply that in the world of college hoops. That said, C-USA's first impression in 2010 is one the "13 dwarfs" would sure prefer to do over.

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Three Against the Wall

We are starting to get to the time of the season where we truly have enormous games, games where the losers back themselves into a corner where they pretty much have to win their conference tourney in order to make the Dance.  Three games on tonight's slate jump out to me.

In the Colonial, two teams that looked like at-large candidates two months ago find themselves at a crossroad.  William & Mary, admittedly the Maniac's darling team this season, knocked off Wake and Maryland on the road (something, coincidentally NO ACC team has done this season) and looked to be well poised to capture an at-large bid if necessary.  Old Dominion, along with VCU, captured enough momentum and quality wins pre-conference that it looked likely that at least one of them would make the field as well, possibly even making the CAA a three-bid league for the first time since the historic 2006 season.

Then conference play began, and things got a little messy.  ODU has fared well, sitting at 9-2 in league.  However, they still trail George Mason and Northeastern (both of whom did not fare well pre-conference).  William & Mary is in even a tougher spot, as they sit 7-4, tied for fifth place in the league with VCU (and behind Drexel).  The loser of tonight's contest, especially if it is W&M, will be forced to win the league tourney to get in.  The game is tonight at 7pm at Old Dominion.

Another mid-major do-or-die game features a team long so successful it feels odd to classify them as a mid-major.  Memphis is on the outside looking in as of today and is going to need to stack up some quality wins in a hurry to make the field.  They get their first chance tonight at 8pm when conference leading UAB visits the Pyramid.  Gonzaga follows them into town on Saturday. After Memphis's surprising 70-60 loss to SMU, it is fair to say they need to win both to have a good chance to capture an at-large bid.  Conference USA gets real interesting if Memphis wins tonight, as UTEP and Tulsa have both only dropped one conference game as well.  There is no way C-USA gets four bids.  I think three might be a stretch too.  Tonight is a must for Memphis.

A final mid-major delight features the two best teams in the always competitive Missouri Valley.  Wichita State was able to do something only one other team this season has last month; knock off Northern Iowa.  Tonight the Panthers get their chance to even the score when the Shockers come to the McLeod Center (8:05 EST).  For Northern Iowa, even a loss tonight, provided they suffer no other setbacks, will not prevent them from getting in the tourney.  A loss for Wichita State might.  They suffered only only one non-conference loss (to Pitt), but they have next to no quality wins to speak of either.  Their best win is Texas Tech.  After that it's just Iowa, Cleveland State...and it gets worse from there.  I am not sure the Valley is strong enough to earn an at-large bid for a team with four conference losses, which is what the Shockers will be if they drop tonight's game.  It is a must win for Wichita State.

Three games to watch, though they might be hard to watch (unless you have Dish or Direct TV).  Enjoy 'em if you can.

Maniac's Picks:

William & Mary +12

UAB +7.5

Wichita State +6

(I like all three with the points, but think only Memphis gets the must-win they need)

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Welcome to 2010 Baby

New Year. New Decade. And an incredible slate of college hoops to start it off right. This weekend will give hoops fans an opportunity to most of the nation's best teams (except Texas, who did it last week) get tested.

The game of the day features more than just great hoops. It features the greatest intensifier of all; good old fashioned hate. Rick Pitino visits his old stompin' grounds of hallowed Rupp Arena tomorrow in a position his Cards haven't been in for several years; trying to spring the upset on the heavily favored 'Cats. To add even a little more spice to the day, Calipari was recently the target of some rather pointed criticism by Bobby Knight, while Rick Pitino's offseason read like a John Grisham novel. In fact, it prompted one of the best shirts I've ever seen; sported by a Card fan it read simply "at least our coach only cheats OFF the court." Twisted, but inspired to say the least...

Yes Rick, all eyes on you indeed...

Gotta love the passion down in the Bluegrass. Kentucky is favored by 8, and despite the margin it will be the best test of tournament-style intensity the Cats have faced this year. Carolina and UCONN were great wins, but the volume and magnitude of this game is a great introduction to the passion of March for freshman Bledsoe, Cousins and Wall. Should the Cats survive the Cards and a Jan 12th trip to Gainesville, expect the "undefeated" talk to really ratchet up a notch...

Kansas plays their first real game of the year and gets a chance to finally shut The Maniac up about their soft road thus far. The Jayhawks travel to Philly to face red-hot Temple (5:30 EST) and their tempo-controlling style. The 'Hawks have more talent, but how will they handle their first true test outside of the Phogg? If the Owls can pull one of the first legit "upsets" of this young season (sidenote: Saw a headline on a major sports site, claiming "Bearcats STUN #10 UConn at the buzzer" Holy hyperbole Batman!) they can start looking at a Top 10 ranking and begin thinking Top 4 seed in March...

UConn and Syracuse have quality ballgames, though it might constitute an "off game" by brutal Big East standards. Both play at home, hosting Notre Dame and Pitt respectivly. Meanwhile Villanova takes a tricky trip to Marquette, who will be trying to regroup after gagging one up in West Virginia earler this week. Every day is a good day in the Big East. Don't be surprised if one, or all, of these games is closer than expected.

UAB has an interesting trip to Arkansas Saturday. Should the Hogs beat them, the Blazers will have dropped back-to-backers to UVA and Arkansas; two of the bottom teams in the BCS conferences. That wouldn't bode particularly well for Conference USA, especially after Houston lost to Texas-San Antonio tonight at home.

Big Ten play continues as well after an already-eventful start when Michigan State heads to Northwestern. Should Northwestern fall, they can kiss their brief time in the Top 25 goodbye...and also might begin to worry about their tourney prospects with their schedule not relenting anytime soon (and an 0-2 Big Ten start).

Tomorrow also features a real bevy of late, quality, non-conference tilts. Baylor at South Carolina is a nice matchup of bubble-caliber teams from good, multi-bid leagues. Gonzaga at Illinois is yet another stiff test for the Zags. They looked great last night hammering Oklahoma, but will they have enough gas in the tank against an Illini squad that can ill-afford another setback?

Oklahoma State takes a daring trip to Rhode Island tomorrow evening. Kudos to the Cowboys for playing a game like this against a smaller-name, very solid A-10 team. The A-10 has quite a day lined up with some Big Six foes. Charlotte will be hosting ACC Georgia Tech to round out the trifecta. It will be interesting to see how all three handle the opportunity.

I,m not sure if any cable outlet in America will be providing the 4pm game between William & Mary and Hofstra, but at this point I feel obligated to keep you updated on the Tribe. They are seeking to follow up their Maryland road win with another tough, albeit less glamorous, road win. This is a classic trap game, with Hofstra not expected to be among the CAA elite, but the kind of game you need to win if you want to be a serious at-large contender. By the way, not sure it means much right now (and of course it will drop as conference play lowers their strength of schedule) but W&M is 6th in the RPI as the calendar flips to 2010. Just thought you'd like to know.

Home of the nation's #6 team?? It's pretty early to look at RPI's...but still worth taking notice

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Wednesday's Highlights

There were a couple interesting games last night, and a few resume building wins. Here's a quick sweep on a few you might have missed.

NIGHT IN REVIEW:

UAB validated it's 8-1 record with an exclamation point win over former C-USA rival Cincinnati. The Maniac took a pretty big swipe across C-USA's bow earlier this week, but readily tips his cap to the Blazers' Wednesday night effort. The 64-47 win places them solidly in at-large consideration with a second place conference finish. It is an especialy big win when considering their other "big" wins were Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Georgia. With only chances against Butler (quality), Virgina and Arkansas (not so much...) remaining before conference play this win will be enormous when the Blazers are thrown up on the big board.

For the Bearcats, it is a disappointing response following a tough double-OT loss to crosstown rival Xavier on Sunday night. For Bearcat fans, there has to be some trepidation following another tourney miss-season that began very similarly to this one. I think the Bearcats are still an NCAA Tourney team, especially as Stevenson blossoms, but things need to get on track quickly. There final two non-conference games are minor tuneups, but the BEast begins soon and appears to be nearly as tough as last year.

Louisville stopped their steep slide with a hammering win over Oral Roberts. Granted, they weren't exactly tacking UNLV 1990, but the 94-57 win is a good sign Pitino's Cards realize they can't look past anyone this season any longer...

Ole Miss continued their daring ways, erasing a ten point deficit in the final five minutes to force OT and earn a 91-81 win over UTEP. The Maniac was also critical of UTEP's early light schedule, but admits to being impressed with them in defeat. Derrick Caracter will add an inside presence that few in C-USA will be able to match.

Don't look now, but the Kevin Coble-less Northwestern Wildcats are putting themselves in fine position to earn the school's first ever NCAA Tourney invite. They are 9-1, with wins over Notre Dame, Iowa State, and NC State. Their lone loss is against a top 15 Butler team that will likely be a top-4 seed come March. If they win their final two non-conference games (Saturday's Stanford game is a tricky one) they can go 8-10 in the loaded Big Ten and get some consideration. 9-9 would make them a near lock.

How about the hammering South Carolina laid on Richmond last night? The Spiders had looked good early this season and felt like a potential sleeper in the A-10. South Carolina, led by Devin Downey in what feels like his twenty second year of eligibilty, are going to have a great opportunity to contend for an at-large bid in the loaded SEC East. The good thing about sharing the East with Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, and Vandy is that all five will get eight opportunities for quality wins.

For Richmond, all is not lost. They still have quality wins over Mississippi State, Old Dominion and Missouri in their hip pocket and their three losses to William & Mary, VCU and the Gamecocks should all be Top 100, if not Top 50 RPI losses in March. It does however make this weekends trip to Gainesville an interesting litmus test of the Spiders' legitimacy.

Finally Oklahoma State rebounded from their humbling loss to Tulsa with a nice 71-70 win over Stanford. The Cardinal have now lost to Kentucky in OT, and Oklahoma State by 1. So someone explain to be the 83-81 loss to Oral Roberts? Regardless, on their good days the Cardinal appear to be strong enough to challenge for third in the Pac 10. And, yes, that is meant more as an insult to the beleaguered Pac-10.

Not too much going on in college hoops tonight. Enjoy the Colts going for 14-0, and a serious, somber RIP to Chris Henry.

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Conference Who-S-A?

,Not long ago, Conference USA was every bit as relevant on a national scale as the Big East, SEC and Big 12. Those days are long, long gone. It's easy to blame the exodus of Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette, and DePaul to the BEast (as well at St. Louis and Charlotte fleeing to the A-10).However, there is another big factor at work.

Where have you gone Kenyon Martin? Our conference turns it's lonely eyes to you...

Today, of the circa-2002 formidable powers only Memphis remains; and accordingly it has played out precisely that way for the past four years. Before the season there was some tepid optimism with the changes at Memphis that this could be the year parity began to creep in and C-USA could claim on multiple bids in the tourney. Tulsa has been hailed as the primary threat to unseat the Tigers, with UAB, UTEP and Houston thought to be solid clubs.

The problem for Conference USA? Who are they going to prove they've improved against?

Memphis dispelled some of the notions of being decimated after Coach Cal heading to the Bluegrass (with the Nation's #1 recruiting class with him) when they gave Kansas all they could handle on the season's opening weekend. So... are the Tigers for real? We'll call ya on New Year's Eve when they tangle with the Tennessee Vols. In the six weeks between those quality games? Some real mettle-testers including: Central Arkansas, Arkansas State and Arkansas Little Rock. Perhaps Memphis's AD is set on proving his Ark-based dominance. Screw you Bill Clinton!

In the Tigers' defense, by the time it is all said and done they will have faced Kansas, Tennessee, Syracuse and Gonzaga. The Tigers consistently play a good non-conference slate, and if there was ever a year to unusually backload the schedule it is this transtition year.

However, there is little excuse for the rest. UTEP has played only five games this year. Their opponents are Texas Southern, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Arkansas State (again with the Arkansas theme...), NC A&T, and New Mexico State. They will heat it up in December with games against Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas tech and BYU. Win three of four, and we'll talk. For now, any early acclaim given to the Miners should be...well... minor.

UAB is Blazing through powers like Florida A&M and Samford, and suffered a loss to Wright State. Their win over Wisc-Milwaukee looks better after the Phoenix OT win last night over Wisconsin, but it looks to me like UAB will have to beat both Cincinnati and Butler in their only two non-conference games of quality remaining to get at-large consideration.

Tulsa was the sheik pick to unseat the Tigers. Their early loss to Missouri State is looking better everyday, and the solid win over in-state rival Oklahoma State helps. The subsequent 81-80 squeker over MAC doormat Ohio is a little concerning. Even a little more concerning? Their only chance for another "decent" win is a trip to Big-12 lower-tier Nebraska. That is just not the profile of an at-large team come March.

Southern Miss is 5-1, coming off last night's respectable 2-point loss to a good Mississippi team. They better win at Vandy, or they run the real risk of their best non-conference wins to be over Montana St (by 4) and this weekend's shot at South Alabama.

UCF looked like a nice sleeper early, beating UMass and Auburn before losing to Niagara. Last weekend's 20+ pasting at Notre Dame dampens some of that optimism for my beloved alma matter. The Knights still have trips to Connecticut and Mississippi giving them an opportunit to steal a few headlines for C-USA. However, the fact they are able to schedule those games is a bit telling; UCF is still viewed as low-major fodder, a carryover reputation from their Atlantic Sun days they've done little to erode.

Houston might end up being the only team to notch a "banner" win for the conference before the calendar flips to 2010. The Cougars got theirs over Oklahoma (that will look a little better by season's end as the Sooners improve), but tempered some of the enthusiasm with losses to Nevada (by 3) and San Diego (by 6). They get another chance to make some small waves over thus-far disappointing Mississippi State next Saturday.

There in lies the problem. If your biggest "pre-conference" win is Houston over Oklahoma, you are in trouble. Is C-USA better top to bottom than leagues like the Colonial and WCC? Yes, I believe they are without a doubt. However, with little opportunity to showcase their strength in the early going it looks like another one-team party in this year's Big Dance, and a further dip into mid-major permanence.

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Seven for the Stretch Run

Even by the most conservative estimates, there are no more than 15 at-large bids up for grabs. If one leans towards practicality, the number is closer to 9 or 10, as Syracuse, West Virginia, Florida State and Utah are closer to locks than the bubble.

That said, here is the Maniac's slant on who leans through the finish line and who stands gasping with their hands on their hips.

Cincinnati - 17-10 (7-7)
The Cats will have their chance to move into secure footing Thursday night when they take on former coach Bob Huggins and the Mountaineers. Following the WVU game they go to Syracuse for their final chance at a marquee win. Their final two games are should wins at South Florida and hosting Seton Hall. Should the Cats split their next two, then handle their business in the final two they would finish 20-11, 10-8. That should be enough to dance.
MANIAC'S CALL: OUT

Virginia Tech 16-10 (6-6)
The Hokies have played themselves on the wring side of the bubble dropping three straight games. The good news? They have four games remaining to pick up some valuable wins and play their way in. The flipside? They could easily drop three or even all four and find themselves a tourney afterthought (and middle seed in the NIT). The gauntlet starts tonight at Clemson, followed by visits from Duke and UNC. The finale is a trip to Florida State...but by then it may not matter too much.
MANIAC'S CALL: OUT

Providence 17-11 (9-7)
With all apologies to Barack, The Friars showed us a real game changer last night. Their start-to-finish beating of the #1 Panthers last night took the Friars from first team out to comfortably IN. Now they just have to hold the rope. A win over Rutgers and a non-embarassing performance at Villanova and in the first round of the Big East tourney should get the Friars a ticket to the Dance.
MANIAC'S CALL: IN

Notre Dame 15-11 (6-8)
Ok, hear me out... Notre Dame has two should wins on the schedule, a trip to Storrs Saturday and a home game against Villanova. If they go 3-1, and win a game in the Big East tourney, they would finish up 19-13, (9-9). It would depend on how well some of the smaller conference locks fare in the conference tourney, but I think it would be enough to get the Irish the last at large bid. Win at Connecticut? Notre Dame passes Cincinnati and Providence and becomes the Big East's 7th bid.
MANIAC'S CALL: IN

Kansas State 19-8 (7-5)
The Wildacts put on a heckuva run to even get to this point in the discussion, but a colser look at the resume makes their case a longshot. They boast no major non-conference wins, and have losses to Kentucky (acceptable), Iowa (less acceptable) and Oregon (something NO Pac-10 team has to apologize for...). Their final four gives them a chance to win their way in; games against Nebraska and Oklahoma State are winnable and attractive wins to boot, the Missouri game would be the clincher. It is asking a lot of a team that no one expected to be here after starting 0-5 in Big 12 play.
MANIAC'S CALL: OUT

UAB 19-8 (9-3)
The Blazers have an early season win over Arizona, and all five of their non-conference losses are to tourney teams (Oklahoma, Butler, Cincinati, Louisville, and BC). That said, this is not your Daddy's C-USA. It is a 1-bid league these days, though Houston, Tulsa and the Blazers are much improved. The Blazers do get a de facto first round tourney game on Saturday when they take on Memphis. Win that, and their other remaining three and they make a compelling case for the committee to consider. Should they lose Saturday, they better win the C-USA tourney ior it is another trip to the NIT for Robert Vaden and Coach Davis.
MANIAC'S CALL: OUT

Creighton 23-6 (13-4)
Wins over Dayton, St. Joes and New Mexico and a two-point losses to underrated Arkansas Little Rock and Nebraska give the Blue Jays one of the more intriguing discussions. 13-4 in the balanced, but not spectacular MVC leads one to believe the Jays need to win the tourney to Dance. I think if they win Saturday over Illinois State and finish the regular season at 24-6 they will be fine; deservedly so.
MANIAC'S CALL: IN

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Tuesday Round Up - Best Games Across the Nation 12/30

There were some great statement wins last night. Georgetown announced its presence with authority in the Big East. Memphis defended their home court against the Bearcats, with tenacity and captured a much needed resume win before C-USA play, and Davidson went to Charleston and beat their stiffest conference foe - putting the SoCon on notice that they could once again run the table.

Tonight, several other teams get a chance to make some noise.

GAME OF THE NIGHT:

7 PM - Illinois @ Purdue

The Illini have been one of the season's pleasant surprises with their 11-1 start. Tonight they get a chance to validate it with an impressive showing at Purdue. The Boilers were ambushed in Mackey by Duke, but are a tough squad to beat in their building. I like the poise and defense of the Boilers tonight.

This place will be rockin' tonight

7 PM UAB @ Butler

UAB got off to a promising start, beating Arizona on the road in the Preseason NIT. Since then, they have backslid a little, losing games to Oklahoma (understandable) and Louisville by 20. Add in loses to BC and Cincinnati, and this is a game they can ill-afford to lose if they have any hope of earning at at-large bid (assuming Memphis wins the C-USA tourney for the umpteenth straight time).

Butler comes in with a lone 3-point loss, at Ohio State, and fresh off a win over Xavier at the Cintas Center. This would be one more feather in the Bulldog's cap come seeding time.

7 PM George Mason @ Dayton

George Mason is the interesting case of a small school exploding so prominently onto the national stage that they begin to become a bit overrated. This is not to say they are not a good team, but just that Dayton is still the prohibitive favorite. This is a huge opportunity for both school, particularly the Patriots, to grab a huge non-conference resume win.

They are good on '08... not THAT good though.

7 PM Clemson @ South Carolina

An in-state skirmish between tow decent ball clubs. Clemson is off to a fantastic start (stop me if you have heard that one before), but better not over look Devan Downey and the Gamecocks. The win over Illinois is a good one. The subsequent win over Miami (FL) was impressive as well. Capture this one tonight, and the Tigers are well positioned for March entering ACC play.

8:05 PM Oklahoma @ Arkansas

Oklahoma has been the most consistent team in the nation (Carolina excluded), and will get a quality test tonight in Fayetteville. Gone are the days of "40 minutes of hell" but the Hogs still get after it on defense. Still, Willie Warren and Blake Griffin might be too much for them to handle.

MANIAC'S PICKS:
UAB +6.5, Oklahoma +6 (LOCK), Dayton -8, Clemson - 2.5, Purdue -6.5

UABominable

For those of you who caught the end of the Arizona - UAB game last night, you witnessed a true meltdown in non-game knowledge that Donavan McNabb would be impressed by!

After scoring the tying bucket with 22 seconds to go, Arizona freshman Kyle Fogg inexplicably rushed to immediately foul the inbound recipient from UAB. He thought they were still losing.

Oops. Perhaps he thought he was the Geico Caveman. Those newfangled scoreboards are tricky contraptions.

It gets better. Fogg's "strategy" prevailed, as UAB missed the front end of the 1&1, and Arizona corralled the rebound for a chance to win. After a Nic Wise missed jumper, Paul Delany rebounded and aimed for a 70-foot Hail Mary heave.

But was fouled. Intentionally. From behind with a full-extension lunging psuedo-tackle by Arizona's Jamelle Horne. The announcers attributed the loss to the confusion, perhaps because Lute Olsen's sudden retirement. They blamed the confusion on coaching.

That could be it. I am sure their replacement coach never bothered to instruct his players not to intentionally foul 70 feet away from the basket in the final second of a tied ballgame!

Bad coaching indeed. Wait... Maybe that is on the player! Ya' think?!?

Arizona boasts one of the nation's longest streak of consecutive NCAA tourney appearances at 19. Many speculated that streak is in jeopardy this year. I disagree. Chase Buddinger has improved a ton mentally...but he is going to need some smarter play around him to salvage a season very early on the brink.

"Help me help you. Help ME Help YOU."

lousy video quality - but can be viewed here