Bracketeering - November Pre-Thanksgiving Turkey Shoot

There is something exhilarating about the Thanksgiving edition of Bracketeering each season.  The season is young enough that imense room for speculation still prevails, however there have been just enough small slivers of hoops action against semi-reasonable competition that complete disdain for the pollsters is already allowable.

It is with that smug spirit of contrarianism that we shall embark on the season innagural edition of Bracketeering!  As always, comments, feedback and profanity-laced anatomically-challenging emails and posts are thoroughly enjoyed and welcomed...

FINAL FOUR:

#1 Kentucky - I'll spare you the email; YES, I was the guy who joked "time to start writing the 'Final Four Banners taken DOWN from the Rafters' story" within minutes of Coach Cal's hiring.  Well, so far he has proven me half correct; there is a Final Four banner in the rafters.  And in my opinion, it's likely another will be joining it this season.  As far as the "taking it down" part, there is no evidence to suggest Calipari has made even the slightest errant step in Lexington.  However, for those of you who were history majors in college...you know what they say about its repetition...

Anyhow - This is easily my favorite Kentucky team since Tubby Smith was in the Bluegrass.  The Gilespie Era was an abject trainwreck.  The John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins team was too erratic and immature (and frankly, just not a likeable mesh of players), and last year's Final Four team was nearly as ugly, and not nearly a Final Four caliber team most of the season aside from the final two weekends.  This team is different than the past two editions of isolation and dribble drive, force up shots and buy time until the NBA Draft rolls around Kentucky basketball.   Marquis Teague is a similarly top-ranked prep point guard, but he is more in the distributor mode than either John Wall or Brandin Knight.  Terrance Jones is a year more seasoned and provides a legitimate first-team All-American swing/power forward with some ferocity, and Doron Lamb is the team's most reliable shooter and scorer from the perimter.

The real difference maker, and where I give them the slight edge over North Carolina is the addition of freshman Anthony Davis.  Watching his fourteen point, seven block domination over Kansas, I couldn't help but make the extrapolation that he is going to give Zeller and Henson absolute fits.  Terrance Jones should be a decent defensive match on Barnes, and from 1 to 8, Kentucky actually has a slight athleticism advantage of the uber-athletic Heels.

The nice thing is, this will get settled on the court in less than ten days. Until then, give me the Cats in the top slot.

#2 North Carolina - They are everyone's #1 for a reason.  They are absolutely loaded.  Barnes returned after a slow-starting, but quietly spectacular freshman season and should vie with Jared Sullinger for national player of the year honors in 2012.  The inside duo of Henson and Zeller are as talented as any frontcourt in the nation (though I am not sold on their interior defensive presence; yes Henson is a good shot blocker, but is he really going to body a Jared Sullinger out of the lane??), and Marshall Strickland is a fantastic distributor who looks up the floor better than any collegiate guard in the country.

When looking at a team than is going to struggle to find minutes for McDonald's All-American freshman James McAdoo because of the dearth of talent, identifying flaws is obviously a nit-picking venture.  However, nitpick I shall... this is not a perfect team in the mold of the two national championship teams in the Roy Williams era.  Zeller has developed some pretty moves, but is nowhere near the reliable 'dump it in the post every time down the floor' scoring option that Tyler Hansbrough was.  I'd grade him significantly behind Sean May in that regard as well.  This team is also devoid of a defensive wing stopper in the mold of a Danny Green or Raymond Felton.  And the outside shooting of the 2011-2012 Heels??  Let's just say they'd be wise to keep it up tempo and run run run.

This sounds like we're down on the Heels.  Not true.  In fact, to have this team anywhere outside of the Top Three is being contrarian for the sake of being obnoxious.  And at MarchManiacs, we are obnoxious for completely independent reasons.  UNC is fantastically talented, and I'm not sure either national championship team had a player with the beautiful slashing and mid-range game of Harrison Barnes.  He has the ability to elevate this team from "fantastic" to "transcendent." 

However, as stated above, until next weekend I'm cautiously parking the Heels just behind Coach Cal's Big Blue.

#3 Duke - Every flaw you could find about North Carolina?  Flip them when discussing the Blue Devils.  Duke has plenty of size and toughness inside.  But no one even close to the feathery touch and deft post moves of Tyler Zeller.  North Carolina has the consummate distributor and playmaker at point guard.  Duke, in very un-Duke like fashion, has a makeshift point guard committee, with the primary ballhandling responsibilities falling to sharp shooter Seth Curry.

And perimeter shooting?  Not an issue for the Dukies.  Although Austin Rivers's shot selection still leaves a bit to be desired (more on that later), shooting from behind the arc is something this team will do as well as any team in the nation.  Curry and Andre' Dawkins can flat-out knock it down.  Rivers is potentially deadly albeit streaky, and no 6'11' player in the country shoots as well from distance as Duke's Brian Kelly.

In fact, Kelly is the primary reason I elevated the Blue Devils to #3.  Through three weeks, no player in the country has shown more improvement from last season than Kelly.  His ability to put the ball on the floor as well as spot up from three-point range makes him an incredibly versatile and difficult to defend weapon.  His shooting ability prevents teams from shading help to the corners to help on perimeter shooters, and balances the relatively limited ability of the Plumlee boys from anywhere beyond three feet of the rim (especially the foul line... bletch!).  This also allows for Mason and Miles to do what they do best; rebound.  Having a 6'11'' guy pulling a big away from the rim creates fantastic put-back jam opportunities, which they have each capitalized on several times this season in big moments.

The danger for Duke lies in the early tendency of freshman Austin Rivers to take about four or five ridiculous shots per game.  So far, Coach K has seemed surprisingly patient with the frosh's shot selection, and his teammates have been typically plucky Duke supporters, clapping and cheering their teammate on.  But at some point, in a big moment or as a tight tough game starts to slip away, you have to wonder if some of the frustration and tension might surface.  So far, so good... but when it does become a story in a month or two, remember you read it at MarchManiacs.com back before Thanksgiving...

#4 Ohio State -  I'll be the first to caution giddy Buckeye fans not to overlook the impact of the loss of defensive wizard David Lighty and his tremendous contribution in the "little things" department.  However when likely Top 3 NBA Draft pick (if not #1 overall) Jared Sullinger surprises everyone and decides to return for his sophomore season, a little exuberance is to be tolerated.

And even though the school's alltime leader in 3-pointers made, Jon Diebler and sixth man tough-guy Dallas Lauderdale have also graduated, don't weep to openly for Coach Matta.  The cupboard is far from bare in Columbus.  Look for senior William Buford to fill in some of the scoring gaps (he was the team's unheralded second-leading scorer in 2011) and for Aaron Craft to continue to blossom in his sophomore season, evolving nicely into a gritty floor leader in the Chris Kramer+Jordan Taylor mold (to blend two Big Ten guards into a nice visual package for you).

6'7'' swingman Deshaun Thomas is a burgeoning star waiting to explode on to the scene for the Buckeyes, and while he won't make anyone forget David Lighty, he will certainly make the loss much less painful.

I have the Buckeyes in my Final Four, but a clear peg behind North Carolina and Kentucky.  However, come March, I'm not sure they won't be that team that everyone takes a liking to as the #1 seed to pick for people shying away from the wire-to-wire darlings in Chapel Hill and Lexington.

Elite Eight:

We will dig in to each of these ballclubs in further detail in the not-so-distant future, but for brevity sake (I think this column is pushing 2000 words...) let's list 'em out quickly...

#5 - UConn - This year's team might actually be better than last year's surprising national champs.  Jeremy Lamb is a legitimate National POY candidate.

#6 - Missouri - Their breakneck tempo and outstanding backcourt of Denmon and English could be the class of the Big 12.

#7 - Wisconsin - Granted, they haven't been sternly tested yet, but holding teams to under 38 ppg is an impressive defensive effort, even for a Bo Ryan coached squad.  Add in the best point guard (when factoring in both ends of the court) in the country in Jordan Taylor, and you have a pretty good recipe for success.

#8 - Syracuse - Some questions remain on the perimeter, but Boeheim has yet another talented squad in Syracuse.  Hopefully the allegations swirling around their longtime assistant coach prove meritless... for the sake of not just the alleged victims but college basketball fans everywhere.

Sweet and Lurking:

#9 - Louisville - Can Kyle Couric lead this team to the top of the Big East?  The Card fan favorite has been excellent in the early season, but Pitino and crew will need some solid play from their big guys if they want to hang with UConn and Syracuse in the Big East.

#10 - Baylor - The most talented team in the Big 12, but I don't recall seeing them in the NCAA tourney last year, do you??

#11 - Alabama - Maybe Purdue is just worse than I thought, but watching Anthony Grant's team get after the Boilermakers defensively was impressive.  I'd be stunned if this team is left out of the Big Dance again in 2012.

#12 - Florida - It's hard to hold a loss to Ohio State against them too badly.  I am still not in love with their smallish backcourt, but the emergence of freshman Brad Beal will infuse a much-needed big time scorer jolt into that lineup.

#13 - Xavier - Tu Holloway is a true big time lead guard, cut from the mold of a Kemba Walker.  Coach Mack hopes he can generate a similar result.  Xavier plays a spectacular out-of-conference schedule that includes Gonzaga, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Memphis and Cincinnati (not to mention Long Beach State, who could prove a dangerous trap game), so we will get to find out pretty quickly just how legit the beast of the A-10 is as a Final Four contender in 2012.

#14 - Gonzaga - Elias Harris and Robert Sacre give the Zags one of the better veteran tandems in the country.  Is 6'1'' freshman Kevin Pangos going to be able to continue to light it up from the outside to the tune of 18+ a night?

#15 - Vanderbilt - Yes, I know.  They lost at home to Cleveland State.  It was a bad loss.  However, this is still one of the better teams in the country, especially once they get Festus Azili back from his six-game NCAA-imposed suspension.  John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor combine for one of the best backcourt running mates in the country.  The Commodores early season play doesn't earn them a Top 16 slot; even that 2-point win last night over Oregon State was sketchy... but I am still going to stick with Vandy and hope to be rewarded come February and March...

#16 - St. Louis - I always like to take a flyer on someone at the sixteenth slot, so let's really go for it to kick off the season.  The Billikens beat the nonsense out of both Southern Illinois and Washington already this season, and have a legit chance to win their Thanksgiving tournament that tips off tomorrow against Boston College.  Xavier is the class of the A10, and Temple has the bigger name, but don't be surprised is Saint Louis is ranked by season's end and a lock for an NCAA Tourney appearance.

In the End, It's How You Play at the End

The NCAA Tournament is less about talent that nearly any analyst or fans realizes.  Most seasons, outside of five or six teams at the top and fourteen or sixteen teams at the bottom - the talent is pretty even.  The difference that separates the Sweet and Elite from the meat?  How you handle crisis, and how you function in end-game situations.

This is the precise and exact reason why the humble Maniac can already give you teams that are going to be upset prone and teams that will likely outplay their seed this March.  It isn't so much about the stats, but how you execute in situations where the difference between winning and losing is just a few scant possessions.

Some call it coaching, and I agree coaching is part of it, but another big part of it is in your player's DNA.  It's in your player's brains.  You can't fake cool and you can't fake smart when the bright lights start their One Shining Moment.

This is a broad generalization that SEC fans won't like much - but here it goes; SEC teams are good athletically, and with the exception of Vanderbilt, really, really, um... 'not smart'.  Sorry Wildcat fans, did you watch your Cats nearly WALK the ball up the floor, frantically calling for and then waving off a screen - all while DOWN FOUR with less than ten seconds to play?  By the time their shot finally clanged off the rim, the horn had sounded and Vandy won by four.  It wouldn't have mattered even if it went in, because they wasted ten seconds advancing the ball!! 

This is an excellent example of the AAU-style play that is prevalent this season in the SEC.  Poor ball movement, terrible end-game execution, lousy foul shooting and a poor understanding of score and situation.

I can't see any SEC teams making a real run at the Final Four.  With the exception of Vandy; all the teams simply play too dumb.

Contrast that with the exceptionally high caliber of basketball currently being played in the Big Ten and Big East.  The way Wisconsin and Ohio State both had complete control of score and situation - as well as never missed any clutch free throws, is a hallmark of two teams ready for March.  Ditto for Purdue.  There aren't many teams in the country I would feel more comfortable coaching than Purdue if I needed a bucket late. Purdue's two-man game of E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson, not just their scoring ability but the senior smarts make them a likely candidate for a deep March run.  Purdue's point guard play is a little less solid than their two aforementioned conference mates, but is still a squad with the poise, talent and smarts to make a run to the Final Four.

Is there any conference whose top teams will be more battle-tested than the Big East?   Nearly every game is an intense slug-fest between the top eleven (maybe ten, has Cincinnati really challenged many top teams??) teams this season.  Pitt and Villanova are two of the toughest teams in the nation.  Louisville has shown several occasions that they are capable of late heroics.  Georgetown and their spectacular backcourt are exactly what one looks for when filling out their brackets, and I have not seen any team in the country that shares the ball with the unselfishness of Notre Dame. 

The Big East will likely have six or seven teams receive Top 4 seeds, and frankly I could see any one of them, with the exception of UConn, making a run to the Final Four.

We will have a nice Monday afternoon Bracketeering Bubble Busting Edition - but for now, here's a quick list of stock up and stock downs from the Maniac's humble vantage point...

Stock Up (March BUYS):

Ohio State
Villanova
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Purdue
Duke
Georgetown
San Diego State

Stock Down (March SELLS):

Tennessee
Kentucky
Kansas State
UConn
Minnesota

Florida
Washington
Richmond (if they make it...)

HOLDS (Still getting a final read)

BYU -  (Yes, I have Jimmer-mania... but do they have enough help?  Can you box & one them and get the upset?)
Texas - (remind me a ton of Memphis 2008-09 - is that good or bad?)
Kansas - (hard not to like them, I've just seen them at their worst - USC, UCLA, Texas...)
Illinois - (McCammey needs to distribute AND score, not just the latter)
Vanderbilt - (smart, balanced - are the strong enough at point?)
Pitt - (can they score enough points?)
Louisville - (they've looked really good...but are they really good?)
North Carolina - (impressive over the last month, do they shoot well enough to advance deep?)

February 9th National Roundup

So many teams, so few spots..

It's the time of year where there are about ten good games being played for every one you can actually sit down and watch.  Such is life in February for us college hoop die-hards, especially this year with the ubiquitous "soft-bubble."

Some of you might recall one of the first columns of the season talking about the relative lack of  strength nationwide.  It wasn't an early season exageration, I turned out to be exactly right.  However don't confuse "down year" with "boring year."  If anything, this year's final four week scramble might be the most entertaining pre-tourney finish we have seen in years.

Here's a quick rundown of the day's more important results.  A seperate series of columns will be devoted to specifically addressing each team's at-large chances.

Big East:

Georgetown, whom the Maniac liked as the best team in the conference heading into conference play has finally begun to reward our confidence after it looked tragically misplaced during the Hoyas 1-3 start in conference play.  Tonight they captured their fifth straight BEast win, taking down Syracuse in the Carrier Dome for the first time in eight years.  The win should escalate Georgetown back into the Top Ten and still in play for a #1 (but more likely a #2) seed.

Louisville has been the most pleasant surprise in the conference, and possibly in the entire country.  It was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and possibly even a NIT season.  However, Preston Knowles and the Cards have been fantastic.  It looked like they were on the verge of capturing yet another enormous conference win at Notre Dame tonight, until surprise BEast Player of the Year candidate Ben Hansbrough took over.  The senior standout helped the Irish force overtime, then spearheaded a 10-0 run to start the extra frame as Notre Dame walked away with a huge win.  The Irish, projected as a bubble team at best preseason are now a solid candidate for a #1 seed (though like G'Town, likely a #2 or #3) and have emerged as a nice darkhorse Final Four contender.

Marquette is nothing if not exciting.  Perhaps no team this season has lost more heartbreaking games to elite teams than the Warriors.  Tonight, in a game they should have won easily, they again showed their affinity for heart-pounders.  After trailing for most of the game, the Warriors eeked out a 59-58 win at South Florida, and more importantly kept the at-large tourney hopes afloat.  They are by no means safely in, but a loss to cellar-dweller USF would have been a crippling blow to their chances.

Meanwhile Villanova helped prove that ANY road game is a tough game in the nation's power conferences, dropping a 77-76 game at Rutgers that could come back to haunt them in their pursuit of a Top 2 seed in March.

Big Ten:

Ohio State has been the big story of 2011 as the nation's lone unbeaten team for more than two weeks now.  However, everyone else in the Big Ten has looked at times tourney-worthy (with the exception of perhaps Iowa and Indiana), and at other times simply terrible.

That rocky road continued tonight as Wisconsin had to fight for their lives to force overtime and eventually squeak out a 62-59 win over lowly Iowa. 

Michigan continued their recent solid play with a relatively easy 75-66 home win over Northwestern.  It is likely too late for Michigan to earn an at-large bid, barring a remarkable finish to the season, but the win tonight did officially put to rest any aspirations Northwestern might have held of snapping their lifetime streak of missing the NCAA Tourney.  Michigan moved to 15-10 (5-7) with the win, while Northwestern fell to 14-9 (4-8), making even an NIT bid look ambitious at this point.

Tomorrow has two more interesting and do-or-die Big Ten games when Penn State travels to reeling Michigan State and Illinois travels to Minnesota for a game that looks more and more like one that could vault the winner to the Tourney and the loser to the NIT.

Conference USA:

It may not happen, but I still contend this is a multiple-bid league, possibly as many as three bid merited even.  Memphis dodged an enormous bullet tonight in Orlando when Antonio Barton hit a three pointer on a pass delivered from his Conference USA freshman-of-the-year brother Will, with two seconds remaining to clip UCF 63-62.  The win keeps Memphis's bubble hopes strong, while for UCF any semblance of optimism from their 14-0 start have fully evaporated with their still-going eight game losing streak.

Meanwhile UAB passed their bubble-test with ease, handling their business with a 64-48 win at Marshall.  The win moved UAB to 17-6 (7-3) and should improve their already Top 40 RPI.  It was a good win for the Blazers, even it isn't an eye-popping one.  Marshall has already beaten West Virginia and Memphis this season.

SEC:

Florida ended any remote chances South Carolina might have been clinging to with their 79-60 win in Colombia.  The Gators moved to 19-5 (8-2) and are looking more and more like a Top 4 seed come tourney time.

Last night was a more action-packed evening for the conference, with Bruce Pearl's return spoiled with a 73-61 loss to Kentucky at Rupp Arena.  Tennessee might be the most difficult team in the field of 68 to seed (assuming they even make the tourney), as their record merits a low seed, but their stunning quality of victories (Villanova, Pitt, VCU, Missouri State, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Memphis) reads more like a #5 or #6 seed at worst.  However at just 15-9 (5-4) the Vols would be wise to avoid many losses in the final few weeks of the season.

Georgia is also a bubble-team, though they lack some of the huge resume wins of their counterpart in Knoxville.  They let a golden opportunity slip away last night, losing to Xavier 65-57 on their home floor.

Saturday is a huge day in the SEC, as Kentucky travels to Vanderbilt, and the Gators host the desperate Tennessee Volunteers.

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Can Penn State Make the Tourney?

Penn State struck again today.  This time the victim was #15 Wisconsin.  It is the third time in two weeks the Nittany Lions have knocked off a Top 25 opponent.  The question after the first upset was "how the heck did that happen?"  After the second it was, "can that really happen again?"

After the third, the question is now, "can Penn State actually make the NCAA Tournament?!?"

The answer is short, but not so simple; "probably not."

Even with the win today the Nittany Lions are still only 12-8, 5-4 in Big Ten play.  The dug themselves a pretty deep early hole with losses to Maine (ouch), Mississippi (less bad, but still 'ouch'), and a humiliating 62-39 loss to Maryland.

Taking a look at the Lions remaining schedule, let's assume they need to get to 18 wins (minimum) and then win at least one game in the conference tournament to merit at-large consideration.  That means they need AT LEAST six wins in their remaining contests.

Up next for Penn State is a tough trip to Illinois, followed by a visit from Michigan and a trip to Michigan State.  In all reality if they fail to get two of those three, it is probably curtains for the Nittany Lions.

Let's assume for arguement's sake they do pick up the two wins they need.  They would then need to steal four wins from the following list:  Northwestern, Minnesota, @Wisconsin, @Northwestern, Ohio State and @Minnesota.  They will likely be underdogs in five of those six games (possibly favored at home against Minnesota but not likely).

It's a very tough road ahead to Talor Battle and the Nittany Lions, but my best bet is they fall about one or two wins short and are left wondering what could have been... they are literally two plays away from being in the midst of a six game winning streak with five wins over ranked opponents.  Ohio State needed a late defensive stop to eek out a three point win at home, and Purdue beat the Lions on a baseline jumper at the buzzer, 63-62.  Win even one of those games, and the situation looks dramatically different.

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Big Ten: Mid Season Conference Round Up

The Big Ten entered the season thought to be one of the nation's elite conferences, and they've done little to dispel the notion thus far.  If anything, the recent stellar play of Penn State and the at least occasional displays of competence by Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern, make the Big Ten as deep top-to-bottom as any league in the country.

At the midpoint, it is safe to assume an absolute minimum of five NCAA Tourney bids, with a sixth being highly likely and a seventh being a remote, but unlikely possibility.

Here's where we stand so far:

LOCKS: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin
SHOULD BE IN:  Minnesota
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY: Northwestern, Penn State
NO SHOT:  Michigan. Indiana, Iowa

Ohio State is #1 in the country and shows no signs of slowing down.  Tonight's visit from Purdue will be a nice test for the Buckeyes coming off their emotional win Saturday in Champagne.  They have the inside/outside balance needed for a deep run to the Final Four and more.  They won't run the table, and could even lose tonight to Purdue, but I'd be surprised if they drop more than three or four games all year.  Expect the Buckeyes to be a #1 seed in March.

Purdue is an interesting case.  People have focused so much on who they are missing (Robbie Hummel) they've overlooked two All-American candidates they do have in E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson.  The senior inside/out combo is as good as any pair in the country and give Purdue the core to make a run at the Final Four.  I've liked this team all season - and they are only getting better as their role players begin to get some confidence and court time.  They could end up as high as a #1 seed with a nice run to win the Big Ten, but more likely settle in around the #3 line.

It's almost February, so that must mean it is time for Michigan State to start turning it on in preparation for March.  Tom Izzo has perfected the "Final Four run from a 3 or 4 seed" act many times, and might just do it again this year.  The Spartans certainly have the talent to be a top seed, but like Purdue, likely settle around the #3 line.

Illinois is another team with the personnel to make a deep run in March.  Their record suggests I should have them slotted behind Minnesota and Wisconsin, but Illinois gets the "lock" nod due to who they have played and lost to.  Losses to Texas, Missouri and Wisconsin away from home shouldn't drop the Illini too far in the committee's eyes.  They'll still likely endure a handfull of losses, but should have a strong enough body of work to land safely in the 4/5 seed range.

Wisconsin strikes again.  They don't have NBA talent loading up their roster like some of their Big Ten counterparts, but all Bo Ryan and his Badgers do is win win win no matter what.  Currently 5-2 in conference, the Badgers are in position to finish second in arguably the top league in the country.  Trips to Ohio State and Purdue still loom, but the Badgers propensity to hammer lesser opponents (including this weekend 32-point drubbing of Northwestern) serves them favorably for an 11 or 12 win season and as high as a #3 seed, but no certainly no worse than a #5 seed in March.

Minnesota is all but a lock, but their lack of marquee wins means they still need to hold up over the rigors of Big Ten play. Early neutral court wins over North Carolina and West Virginia help, but the real bulk of their Big Ten schedule is still to come.  The 3-point loss at Ohio State is encouraging, as is the home win over Purdue.  They only have four games left in conference against the "Top 5" so their home and homes with Northwestern and Indiana are vital to sweep.  My call - Minnesota lands around a #6 seed.


What to make of Northwestern?  They looked good in blowout wins over Indiana, Iowa and Michigan - as well as in tight three and four point losses against Michigan State.  This is also the team that took a 32-point drubbing by Wisconsin and a 25-point loss at Illinois.  Simply put?  The Wildcats are just OK - not terrible, yet nowhere close to the class of the Big Ten's elite.  That likely earns them a seventh place finish and yet another berth in the NIT.

Penn State is another team that is likely not making the Big Dance, but man are they giving teams fits in conference play.  The are only 3-4 in league play, but an impressive 3-4 it is; they own wins over Michigan State and Illinois and two road losses to Ohio State by just three and Purdue on a last-second buzzer beater, 63-62.  Those are their four most recent games.  So - does that great play translate into wins over the bottom half of the conference?  If it does, it isn't unreasonable to think Penn State could sneak up to 9-9, possibly even better in conference.  It may not be enough to get them to the tourney in Talor Battle's senior year, but the Nittany Lions are sure going to make things interesting.

Indiana fans surely must be growing impatient.  It's now year three of the Tom Crean Era, and there is little evidence of progress.  At least Hoosier fans can take solace knowing their good friends in Lexington were in the exact same spot three years ago and their rebuilding took Coach Cal about 45 minutes and four phone calls... The Hoosiers are simply outclassed in Big Ten play.  They lack the size, the scoring, the depth - basically everything needed to compete.  Even the NIT is a stretch for IU. Consider Crean on the clock next season.

Michigan is a program that continues to perplex me.  They have tradition, facilities, resources, a good coach; yet they continue to flounder on the edge of irrelevance.  They gave Kansas a heck of a fight earlier this year, showing some signs of life, but at 1-6 in conference with trips to Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota still remaining Michigan is looking a terrible conference season, and an overall sub-.500 season squarely in the face.  If not for the relative failures of the two coaches who preceded him, I'd say Beilein has reason to be nervous... and actually still might.

The pen is mightier than the team...

If one were taking the "Big Ten" exactly at its name's value, Iowa would be the school you would forget to include.  This once-proud basketball program continues to flounder at the bottom of the league with very little sign of digging itself up off the mat.  The Hawkeyes are just 8-11 (1-6) and have losses to powerhouses like South Dakota State and Long Beach State on their resume.  No postseason for these guys - this year - or anytime soon... Paging Dr. Tom Davis...Dr. Davis...

Michigan State Rallies for Huge Overtime Win

Excuse to get Sparty some face time.

Wow - ignore the comment in my earlier article about Michigan State dropping to 0-2 in conference play.

Impressive comeback win to force overtime and knock off a good Wisconsin Badger team.  Here's a good recap if you didn't catch it on ESPN:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/recap?gid=201101110358

Games to Watch - Saturday December 11th

For those of you who have the college football "in-between blues," that odd period where teams dangle in limbo for two to five weeks waiting for their bowl games...all of which mean absolutely NOTHING save for one, saddle up for a fantastic day of college hoops that will bring it from noon until well after midnight.


Here's a quick overview of a few games worth catching or at least DVR'ing.

12:00 PM:  UNLV @ Louisville - Both teams are off to flying starts, undefeated and already possessing a few quality wins.  Tomorrow is a great opportunity to find out if Louisville's fast start is an indication they can compete in the loaded Big East and also an opportunity for the left half of the country to get a chance to see a very good UNLV team play.  UNLV has had the Cards number, beating them in each of the past two seasons (Louisville teams that were better, at least on paper, than this year's squad.)

This might actually be the best game of the day, a great way to kick of some hoops watching before lunchtime.  For the UNLV kids, it will be like playing a game at 9AM with the time change.  That's tough to do, and I think they'll come out a little flat and jet lagged.  Give me the Cards laying 3.5

2:30 PM:  Wisconsin @ Marquette - This game has quietly become one of the better rivalry games in the country over the past few seasons.  Both teams have a strong similarity in that it seems every season they are picked somewhere near the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, and sure enough, every year they exceed expectations and head to the Tournament. 

This year looks to be playing out exactly the same way.  Both teams enter at 7-2, with their losses coming against ranked foes and in close games.  Both have a few quality wins under their belt but can desperatly use another one before tackling conference play in the two toughest conferences in the nation.

Marquette will have the valuable home crowd advantage but I have a feeling Wisconsin has a touch more discipline and a little more cohesion and poise at this early juncture in the season.  Gimme the Badgers +1.

3:15 PM:  Tennessee @ Pitt - The Vols have been one of the season's pleasant surprises.  Tomorrow will be one of Pearl's last games on the sidelines before his oddly-arranged SEC-only eight game suspension takes effect.  Both teams are athletic and very physically tough.  I like Pitt at home in a really good ball game but nine points is a lot to lay considering this will likely be a game in the fifties or sixties.  I'll take the Vols and the +9.

4:00 PM:  Kansas State @ Loyola (IL) -  Odd line of the day.  not sure how K-State is laying only 8.5.  Gimme the Wildcats in a 20+ point romp.

4:00 PM:  Dayton @ Old Dominion -  The Flyers are reeling, despite their 7-2 record.  However, this is a talented and experienced club that should turn the corner soon.  Old Dominion continues their aggressive schedule with yet another hopeful tourney team.  I think the Monarchs win at home, but I'll take the Flyers +10.5

4:30 PM:  Washington @ Texas A&M - Texas A&M can land a clear blow for the Big 12 versus the Pac 10 with a win today at home.  Texas A&M is off to a good start at 8-1, however their only win of note came over Temple.  Washington has been carrying the banner as the only ranked team in the Pac 10, but it's hard to put A&M any better than sixth in the loaded Big 12.  I'm not sure if Washington feels any pressure to prop up their sagging conference, but a loss today is actually pretty damaging to league's overall profile.  I'll take Washington on the road, minus one and a half.

5:15 PM:  Indiana @ Kentucky - One of my favorite rivalries takes place today, and though much of the shine has faded over the past decade with neither school managing to be good at coinciding times, it still means a ton to their respective fan bases.  Indiana is in year three of the Tom Crean Era, and call me a hater, but it doesn't seem any real progress has been made.  Meanwhile in the Bluegrass it took Calipari all of half a day to bring the 'Cats from "NIT" to "Final Four" caliber. 

There's still a pretty big hill to climb in Bloomington, and I don't think today will be a step in that direction.  Give me Big Blue laying the thirteen points.

6:00 PM:  Arizona @ BYU - Sean Miller's Cats seem to be on the right track to erasing the memory of last year's rare tourney absence.  It had been nearly thirty years since the Cats were left out, and I'm sure Miller would like to put another thirty years distance in the rear view mirror.  A win today in Provo would go a long way.  I think they'll get it.  Gimme Arizona +2.5

7:00 PM:  Virginia Commonwealth @ Richmond - The sneaky gem in today's bursting schedule is this top-tier matchup between the CAA and the A-10.  Both schools have designs on playing in March, however neither league is notorious for collecting armloads of at-large bids.  Both schools could really use the chip today's win would provide. 

VCU's two losses are quality; Tennessee and to lesser extent, South Florida.  They also boast quality wins over UCLA and Wake Forest.  Richmond's losses are a little less solid; Old Dominion and Iona, however their wins are better; particularly the win over Purdue.

This should be a really good game, likely close, so I'll take VCU +8

8:30 PM:  Gonzaga @ Notre Dame -  The Zags are really struggling, and at 4-4 can ill-afford many more losses if they plan to continue their decade-long NCAA Tournament streak.  Notre Dame was one of the season's early surprises until Kentucky took some of their shine Wednesday night.  The line on this one is huge at 10.5, a number I think reflects a lack of confidence in Gonzaga rather than a ton of faith in the Irish.  I'm not so sure that either is warranted.  Give me Gonzaga and the points, and don't be surprised if they clip them straight up.

Maniac's Picks: Louisville -3.5, Wisconsin +1, Tennessee +9, Kansas State -8.5, Dayton +10.5, Washington -1.5, Kentucky -13, Arizona +2.5, VCU +8, Gonzaga -10.5

Some Madness In the Madness

I actually heard someone on the radio during my two-hour drive today (major network) insinuate that the ommission of Mississippi State is a prime example of why the tournament needs to expand.

I couldn't agree more.  Let's blow up the greatest three weeks in American sports for Mississippi State. Makes prefect sense to me.

But alas there are a few teams with legit reason for some madness at being left out of the Madness (and yes, the Bulldogs are probably the foremost). 

Stop me if you've heard this one before: Seth Greenberg and Virginia Tech got screwed.  Granted the author of the quote is usually none other than Seth Greenberg, but this time, the Maniac will echo his sentiments.  And for all those of you who say "you shouldn't have gotten blasted by Miami in the ACC tourney" I say, hold on just a quick second.

You know who else bowed out early in their conference tourney?  This year's most glaring over-seed and ill-admission, the Florida Gators.  Perhaps the committee owed Jeremy Foley a favor or was afraid to see a "marquee" coach's seat get quite as hot as Billy's D's en route to NIT-Three... The Hokies finished THIRD in a conference that sent SIX teams to the Dance, including Georgia Tech.  Granted the Jackets made it all the way to the ACC final, but their regualr season ACC performance was 7-9.  Read it again.   Seven and Nine.  That puts them three full games behind the Hokies in conference.

So... if conference tournaments are that important, let's put every deep advancer IN the the Dance.  And that's exactly HOW it happened.  Read: Minnesota.  The Gophers were outclassed by Illinois all Big Ten season, but in tourney play The Gohpers beat Sparty in OT, and the Illini failed to get off a game-winning attempt in regulation, and again in OT against Ohio State.  When the clock finally expired in Double OT, the Illini's season was over.  Perhaps if they instead drew the depleted Boilermakers (like Minnesota) it would be Chief Illini and the ridiculous headdress this March.  On a side note - Congrats Tubby.

Conference tourney's matter.  The committee showed this clearly.  Georgetown's deep run launched them from a 4/5 to a solid #3 and Notre Dame's Semi-Final run took them from "bubble" to six seed.  Baylor's nice late tourney run landed them as the pesky #3 seed no one knows enough about and Cal's near-win against Washington landed them on safe ground as a #8.

In fact, every major conference conference finalist MADE the tourney...EXCEPT Mississippi State.  To make things further perplexing, espite rolling Florida and Vandy en route to a thrilling OT loss to Kentucky (the second time they had UK flat-out BEAT this season) and finsihing with the same record (9-7) in conference, and a one-game better record overall, a last week win OVER the Gators and an RPI one spot higher... the final spot goes to???? The Gators.

Look, I get that a lot of my readers are Gator fans, and I also get that one stupid ten seed (or eleven or twelve) is not that big of a deal.  My only point is, with THOSE numbers I just gave you, HOW is Florida a #10 and Missippis State is completely OUT?

By every quantifiable number the Bulldogs are equal or better.  RPI, conference record, play down the stretch, quality wins, head-to-head on a neutral floor three days before the selection process, and overall record.... HMMMM.  That's all I'm saying.  HMMMMMM.

OK, onto my awards for the Selection Committee:
Most over-seeded teams:

1.  Florida (in case you missed that point earlier)

2.  Wisconsin as a #4.  if the tourney were played in the Kohl Center, perhaps.  I think the committee placed far too high a premium on pre-conference HOME wins over Duke and Marquette.  Down the stretch, the Badgers were average at best

3.  New Mexico State as a #12.  A number 12 means they were a bubble team had they not earned the auto-bid by upsetting Utah State.  I have no problem with Utah State as a #12, but New Mexico State?? Would they have even been in the First Ten Out had they not won?  No, of course not.  So HOW are they a #12 while Siena is a #13?

Under-Seeded Teams:

1.  Temple as a #5.  They win the A-10 Regular Season, they won the A-10 Tourney.  They are 27-5 with an RPI of #9.  How this team fell to a #5 behind teams like Vandy, Pitt (LOOK at their non-conference schedule, nothing of quality with losses to Texas and INDIANA), and Wisconsin is baffling to me.

2.  Butler as a #5.  They played a solid non-conference slate.  Then they went 16-0 and won their conference tourney.  The Horizon league isn't a dazzler but you can't ask for more than perfection.   Last year they fell in the conference tourney and Cleveland State went out and bounced #4 Wake Forest... They also have an RPI of #12 with wins over Xavier and Ohio State...

3.  BYU as a #7.   Perhaps Florida will at least get their due as the over-seeded #10 to face the under-seeded #7.  Let's just close our eyes and call it what it is: a 5/12 classic.

Introducing Demitri McCamey

First things first, what a GREAT win for the Illini tonight at Wisconsin.  No one wins at Wisconsin.  The win puts them in a big log jam tie for first if Purdue can clip Sparty tonight.  Either way it absolutely punches Illinois' ticket to the Dance.  It gives them nine wins in league and makes it a virtual certainty they finish well over .500 in league play.  Add in the wins over Clemson and Vanderbilt and they are sitting pretty. 

Now let's talk Big Ten POY.  Everyone knows Evan Turner.  Most people know Kalin Lucas and Robbie Hummel.  Let me introduce you to a new entrant to the mix; Demetri McCamey.

He is averaging 15.5 points, over 6 assists and 3.5 boards a night.  More importantly, he is absolutely shouldering the load for the Illini on their surprising run at the Big Ten title.  Tonight he simply willed Illinois past Wisconsin in a building they have already slain giants like Duke, Michigan State and Purdue.  In the 63-56 win McCamey had 27 points on 11 of 16 shooting.  More impressivly he had seven of the team's eight assists.  That means he accounted for 43 of his team's 63 points, or more than 70%.  He WAS Illinois tonight.

Correction, he WAS first place Illinois tonight..

Quick Picks - Feb 9th

It's a real good night on ESPN, nearly every game is an interesting and relativly meaningful one.

In the early game, I really like the way Vanderbilt is coming together and love their home court edge.  A win tonight gives them a stranglehold on second place in the SEC East and puts them a home-win over Kentucky away from making a heckuva case for a #3 seed in March.  Plus the loss to UGA over the weekend has to leave a bad taste in the mouth.  Gimme the 'Dores -3.

It's been a tough week for Oklahoma hoops with the off the court troubles following the surprising Texas win.  I'm not really sure how a team that has played as poorly as the Sooners is laying 6.5 to Texas Tech.  Give me the Red Raiders and the points.

Repeat after me, "no one wins in the Kohl Center."  I think I have finally learned my lesson.  Wisconsin's ability to hold serve at home, along with the Kalin Lucas injury and Evan Turner's rapid recovery have made for a real interesting stretch run to the Big Ten championship.  Give me the Badgers in a romp, sparking the beginning of the Illini's NIT-slide.

In the Big Ten clash tonight, I haven't seen definitively if Kalin Lucas is a go or not.  Obviously without him the Spartans are a much different team.  Purdue's ability to defend ball screens and pressure the ball without having to double is tough to play against at full strength; if you are missing your reigning Big Ten POY it is darn near impossible.  Give me the Boilers +3 tonight at the Breslin Center.  Purdue can force a four-way tie atop the Big Ten with a win tonight (Either Illinois or likely Wisconsin being the fourth, along with Ohio State).

MANIAC'S PICKS: 

Vandy -3
Mason +4
TX Tech +6.5
Purdue +3
Wisconsin -9.5

Bo Knows Whoopin' Sparty

If only not for my vain need to flaunt convention and be oh-so-super smart, a perfect night of picks was in hand...ah to sleep perchance to dream (quote is from Role Models, not Shakespeare...losers).

Forget the three wins (you're welcome).  Let's talk about the one that got away.

First off, is there anything more predictable than watching Wisconsin make a "better" team look utterly and completely clueless in the Kohl Center?  First Duke, then Purdue, now red-hot Michigan State have all felt Bucky's sting when entering his damn; er, dam.  So, what did we learn about each team from tonight's game?

Strangely enough, very little.  I have gotten to the point where I just throw out road losses to Wisconsin.  It doesn't make Purdue or Michigan State any less capable of getting to Indy in April.  It doesn't eliminate Duke as a Final Four contender.  No, the latter was done by Georgetown sending a huge 'flashback to last march' reminder that the Devils still have a devil of a time defending athletic, versatile fours.  On the brightside they might have made sophomore Greg Monroe a few extra million dollars this Summer.

Back to Bucky.  One thing I did take away from the game was an interesting post-game comment from Coach Bo Ryan, where he immediately, and nearly completely credited the win and the frequent success against State to his assistant coach.  Erin Andrews looked perpelexed by this answer, but it actually makes a ton of sense.  Michigan State is excellent with creating mismatches and overloads through on the ball screens. It gives their guards room to create off the dribble (especially Kalin Lucas) and forces help to come.  This leads to easy shots.  There is a reason why Michigan seems to have very balanced scoring every season. Wisconsin not only hedged over those screens, in many cases they flat out "jumped the route" to borrow a football term.  All this means is that they simply refused to let the screener get to the ball and get set.  This creates a lack of sync in the offense (which was obvious committing 13 turnovers to Wisconsin's 5), and over-reliance on tough outside shots (often contested, they shot just 22% from 3-point range), and an lack of quality shots, which leads to numbers advantages heading the opposite direction.  In fact, if not for Michigan States superior athleticism on the glass (11 offensive rebounds) the result would have been even worse.

The synopsis of a long answer: coaching matters, and few in the country do it better than Bo Ryan.  I honestly think a team like Michigan State with the constant ball screening would create sever difficulties in March for a lot of teams far more "talented" than Wisconsin; say Kentucky for example.  Michigan State is one of the best seven or eight teams in the country, no doubt.  So, yes, coaching matters.  And if Bo Ryan says his assistant coach is the best in the country, well, frankly I'm inclined to believe him.

The other thing to take away from this game?  The Big Ten will be fun in February.  Both Ohio State and Purdue benefited tonight, joining Wisconsin at just two games back of Michigan State.  Purdue still plays the Spartans twice, and already took their obligatory Kohl Center loss on the chin.   It will be intersting down the stretch with four good teams slugging it out for the Big Ten title and top seeds in March.

I'm pretty sure Spartan fans know exactly where that fist went tonight...

Tuesday's Quick Picks - February 2nd, 2010

It's not a huge slate of games today, but there are at least three worth tuning into.  The Maniac, much like seemingly every team in the country not named Kansas, is having some trouble these days on the road.  'On the Road" meaning my incessant insistence on picking road favorites.  The numbers are bearing that it just doesn't seem to be the way to go this season... that said, am I smart enough to heed my own researched advice??  (pause for crowd laughter)

On to tonight's fearless picks.

Did you hear John Wall and John Calipari aren't getting along?!?  I have a sly feeling that couples counseling can probably be averted and we can simply chalk it up to an 18-year old kid who has never been coached or disciplined pouting after his first EVER real loss.  Something tells me this one was only a story because some writers needed a story.  Oh, on a related note, this just in too, Dwight Freeney hurt his ankle and Peyton Manning is really good.  See?  It's been a slow sports week.

Tonight the Kentucky Wildcats take on a ranked opponent sans the cumbersome burden of the nation's #1 ranking.  Ole Miss is fatally devoid of an inside presence, which is especially troublsome considering UK has DeMarcus Cousins and Pat Patterson waiting for them at Rupp.  However, what Mississippi does have is one of the nation's better backcourts.  They are actually very similar to Kentucky and that both feautre a pair of lightning quick, offensive-minded, smallish guards who will dominate the ball.  (Not to blaspheme the Great Wall, but the two backcourts' stats are very similar)

I think this presents Wall and Bledsoe with an intersting look they haven't really faced yet this year.  I am curious how they respond, and think the results will be a little more even that Vegas anticipates.  I feel good that Kentucky wins at home, their presence on the boards creating second shots will be the difference.  However, I think Chris Warren and Terrico White give them a heckuva game for 35+ minutes.  Give me Ole Miss and the +12.

In ESPN's nightcap, we get Big Ten-undefeated Michigan State staking their perfect record at a place no one wins; the Kohl Center.  Michigan State is much more talented than Wisconsin.  They are as hot as any team in the country and are a legit #1 seed contender.  And they are getting two points!

Have I learned my lesson?  Stop picking road teams playing in places where the home team ALWAYS wins...

Nope.  Gimme Sparty and the two in a win that ends Wisconsin's hopes for Big Ten title, and severely hampers the hopes of resurgent pre-season fave Purdue.

For weeks I have been foreshadowing the late Northwestern bid-clinching surge... time to put my money where my mouth is tonight when they host Michigan.  And I gladly will.  Give me John Shurna and the Cats laying only one point in their home gym.

I'm going to keep breaking my own new rule and take one more road favorite tonight.  Kansas State is heading to Nebraska tonight in what has all the makings of an enormous let down game following the gut-wrenching OT loss to rival Kansas.  I don't think Frank Martin is going to let that happen though.  Gimme K-State laying four in a good win; not a sexy win, but the kind of win Top 4 seeds don't miss on.

MANIAC'S PICKS:

Ole Miss +12

Michigan State +2

Northwestern -1

Kansas State -4

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Rating Saturday's Top Games

The NFL playoffs start today, and the Maniac's beloved Bengals will host our (yep, I even say "our" like it is possible I'll make a tackle tomorrow) second playoff game in twenty years. As long time tortured season tickets holders, my whole family is super psyched.

That said, there is still some fantastic college hoops worth catching early, or DVR'ing for later.

FIVE STARS:

Purdue @ Wisconsin (1:30 EST - Big Ten Network)

Hardly anyone wins at the Kohl Center other than the Badgers. They have already dispatched a fantastic Duke team there this season, next up they'll try to do the same to the Boilermakers. A win for Wisconsin puts them solidly in the mix to win the Big Ten title and lurches them into the same sentance as Purdue and Michigan State. A win for the Boilers cements them, in my mind, as the clear conference favorite and a huge step towards capturing a #1 seed in March.

FOUR STARS:

Northern Iowa @ Illinois State (4 EST - ESPN)
One of the nation's best kept secrets travels to dangerous Illinois State and perhaps the conference's best player in Osiris Eldridge. The Valley is notorious for beating each other up all season long, preventing two or three teams to seperate from the pack and bolster their at-large chances. Today is an opportunity for Northern Iowa to do just that.

Mississippi @ Mississippi State - The two best teams in the SEC West lock up in a fantastic rival that should be amplified by both teams collective talent level this season. The winner gets an early jump on winning the West.

BYU @ UTEP (9 EST) - This game is a huge feather for both in their at-large profile, though it likely means more to UTEP with BYU a pretty solid lock for March unless they really falter in conference. C-USA is much improved while constant giant Memphis is down. This is the year they might snatch multiple NCAA bids, but it will be competitive with UAB, Houston, Tulsa and Memphis all jockeying. This one is huge for the Miners.

UConn @ Georgetown (Noon, ESPN) - Hard to say this one kills the loser, but it is a good chance to see two of the countries better team; though still very flawed teams, lock horns. Both could use a solid conference win in the uber-competitive BEast. Let's be honest, any game in that conference not involving DePaul, Rutgers, Providence or USF is at least a 3-star game.

Marquette @ Villanova (2 EST) - Marquette could very easily be 3-0 in conference, ranked nationally and be enjoying the media crush that has bestowed upon Pitt this week. Instead, they find theselves in a precarious spot; lose at Nova and they fall to 1-3 and become an early "bubble" candidate...

Wake Forest @ Miami -Two teams that can actually make a claim to being "underrated" despite very good records and playing in the ACC. The winner today can make a good case for being in the Top 15 in the country and gets a valable chip for late season jockeying through the middle of the ACC pecking order.

THREE STARS:

Florida @ Vanderbilt (Noon) - Think Florida's hot start wasn't a bit of a mirage? Vegas has the Gators as seven point dogs to the 'Dores

St John's @ Louisville (Noon) - St John's better get rolling soon or it is yet another empty postseason and bottom half BEast finish.

Niagara @ Siena - Two best MEAC teams go head to head

Duke @ Georgia Tech - great litmus test for the young Jackets

Kansas State @ Missouri - great chance for Mizzou to jump on radar, great chance for Cats to show they deserve a top ten ranking

Ohio State @ Minnesota - looking forward to seeing if Evan Turner is all the way back in a tricky road stop for the Bucks.

Georgia @ Kentucky - always a good rivalry, it will be interesting to see if the Cats play with the killer instinct needed to bury a lesser opponent.

Oklahoma @ Baylor - OK Sooners, you want to stay relevant in 2010, you need to start winning soon. Today at Baylor would be a good start.

Cincinnati @ Seton Hall - Both teams fancy themselves as tourney teams in 2010. The Pirate fall to 0-4 with a loss and will be buried pretty deep. Meanwhile the Cats need the road win to stop their skid and remain at .500 in conference play.

Tulsa @ Houston - A nice chance to get out to the front of C-USA pack in the conference opener.

West Virginia @ Notre Dame - A chance for the Irish to get their first big win of the season, and boy do they really need a few to bolster that resume.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State - Something tells me that only one of the these two teams find themselves on the favorable side of the bubble in ten weeks. A head-to-head win sure never hurts.

Gonzaga @ Portland - A big chance for Portland to get back to relevant. A nice chance for Gonzaga to smack back the uprising and show the WCC who is still boss.

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New Year's Conference Resolutions: Big Ten

Here's the first of ten conference installments of some New Year's Resolutions and Prognostications. As always, your dissension is welcomed...

BIG TEN:

The Big Ten had all the makings of the best conference in the country heading into the season. Legit Final Four contenders? Purdue & Michigan State. National Player of the Year candidate? Evan Turner of Ohio State more than fit the bill. Tons of tourney caliber teams? Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State & Minnesota all were ranked preseason, with Wisconsin entering shortly after beating Duke early. Penn State was fresh off their NIT championship and Northwestern was entertaining dreams of their first ever NCAA tourney appearance. Heck, optimism was even high down in Bloomington with the rebuilding Hoosiers.

So what happened?

Michigan State got routed by North Carolina, Texas and lost to middling Florida. Ohio State lost Evan Turner to a broken back (amazing as it sounds, he will likely be back this season), Minnesota has struggled on the court and off, Michigan has been a disaster and Illinois has been disappointing. Penn State may not even be good enough to get back to the NIT to defend their crown and Indiana will need another year of rebuilding before being relevant.

In short, the Big Ten's shortfalls continue to glare compared to the bright lights of the Big East, ACC and Big 12 for yet another year.

Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:

The Good:
Purdue looks fantastic, and a legit contender to get to Indy. I can't see them any lower than a #2 or #3 seed come March, and I wouldn't bet against a #1 (the win over WVU in the hip pocket). They have good veteran leadership and much like Florida 2006-07, a fantastic understanding of their individuals roles within the team construct.

I'd never bet against Tom Izzo and Michigan State in March. They do it every year, and have more than enough talent to get back to yet another Final Four.

If Ohio State gets back a healthy Even Turner they can be a real sleeper. I thought they were a legit third contender to win the Big Ten before the injury, and are of course a completely different team without him. Unfortunately Turner might return a little too late to salvage a decent seed.

I like Wisconsin's chances getting back to the dance as well. Every year Wisconsin is supposed to be down. Every year Bo Ryan's Badgers defend on the court, defend their home court, and defend their NCAA consecutive appearance streak. It's going to happen again this year.

The Unknown:
Tubby has had a tumultuous off season with his Minnesota Gophers and a rough November. Consecutive losses to Portland, Texas A&M and Miami dropped them off the national radar and left them with only a quality win over Butler for the resume. They are 10-3 and healthy and poised to make a run. I think Tubby's Gophers get it going and finish a solid 5th.

I'm not sure what to make of Illinois. My gut feeling is they are on the outside looking in come March. They've lost to Bradley, a bad Georgia team and a terrible Utah club. Those are going to be tough losses to overcome without ten wins in conference. The opening win over Northwestern helps, but I think they come up short.

Speaking of Northwestern, the Wildcats made their first appearance in the Top 25...and promptly followed it up with a loss to the Illini. Sentiment has me pulling for the Wildcats. Logic tells me they come up just a bit short...again. Check out the upcoming schedule: @ Mighigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, @Ohio State, Illinois, @Minnesota, @Michigan State. Wow. Win even three of these and we'll talk tourney. Find me three games they will be favored in on that slate...

Penn State is a major disappointment to me. The Nittany Lions and Talor Battle just haven't conjured up the magic this year. Early losses to Tulane and NC Wilmington put a ton of pressure on them to go over .500 in conference. It ain't happenin'

Michigan remains the biggest enigma. They are easily tourney-talented. Then the lose their opener to Indiana. Not a way to statr if you have serious aspirations in March. They are 6-6 with a bad loss to Utah and questionable losses to Alabama and Indiana. That leaves a lot of work to do in Ann Arbor. And fast.

The BAD:
Indiana is at least worth watching this year. They play well at home and will likely pick up a handful of conference wins this year. The loss of Maurice Creek hurts, and it is tough to see this young Hoosier team winning many on the road. After all, surprising wins over Pitt and Michigan aside, this is a team that lost to Boston U, George Mason and Loyola (Md). No postseason this year, but the future is bright in Bloomington.

Um, not so much in Iowa. The Hawkeyes are terrible. They've lost to Texas-San Antonio, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Duquesne...and they are going to lose to every single team in the Big Ten at least once.

Final Score:
Purdue, Michigan State are Top 4 seeds. Ohio State gets Turner back in time to get in, Wisconsin and Minnesota earn bids.

Michigan and Illinois spend a rocky few weeks on each side of the bubble. I think the Wolverines get it together just in time to slip in as the 6th Big Ten team while Illinois joins Northwestern in NIT.

Penn State, Indiana and Iowa - make early March tee times.

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Big Chance for the Big Ten

It has been widely covered this week how the Big Ten has never beaten the ACC in the Challenge. I found that surprising, given the ACC's recent top-heaviness, but am not stunned. Regardless, this year seems to be the Big Ten's chance to break through.

Here is a guide to this week's games:

MONDAY: Penn State def. Virginia - Not surprising as Penn State is as strong as any 8th or 9th place team in any normal size (BEast excluded) conference in America. It's a good start for the Ten.

TUESDAY: A really good slate of games highlighted by Michigan State's trip to UNC at 9PM (ESPN HD). The undercard isn't bad either with Wake @ Purdue, Northwestern at NC State, Maryland @ Indiana, and Iowa @ Virginia Tech.

I am not sure exactly how the matchups are determined, but Maryland v. Indiana seems an odd mismatch, with IU being figured no higher than 9th (probably 10th or 11th) in the Big Ten. When your predicted finish is lower than the number of teams in the NAME OF YOUR LEAGUE it is not going to be a real banner season. Ditto for Iowa, the only team scraping the bottom with Indiana. Their draw of VA Tech seems a bit ambitious as well.

MANIAC'S PICKS: Purdue, Maryland, VA Tech, Northwestern in a surprise, and North Carolina continuing to haunt Izzo and the Spartans; this time with a nearly entirely new cast...

WEDNESDAY: More great action starts at 7PM with Illinois trying to stabilize a disappointing start with a win at Clemson. Other games in the early going feature Minnesota @ Miami, and Boston College @ Michigan. The late games are two really good ones when Duke tries to do what very few have recently; win at the Kohl Center against the Badgers, and Florida State visiting Evan Turner and the Ohio State Buckeyes.

MANIAC'S PICKS: Clemson, Miami (FL), Michigan, Duke and Ohio State.

FINAL TALLY: ACC gets 'em again, by a close 6-5 margin.

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Quick Viewing Guide to Maui Classic

A good tourney tips off today at 3PM with Gonzaga playing Colorado. Cincinnati/Vandy at 5:30, and the lat night games with host Chaminade playing Maryland at 9:30 and Arizona and Wisconsin at midnight-ish. All games will be live on ESPN2 except Maryland, which is on ESPNU and ESPNM 360.

For more info on the tourney, check out their official site here:

Maniac's Quick Take on an All-Tourney Team:
Matt Boldin (Gonzaga), Lance Stevenson (Cincy), Grevies Vasquez (Maryland), AJ Ogilvy (Vandy) and Nic Wise (Arizona)

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Quick Guide to Tipoff Tourneys - Maui

For me, it is simply a wonderful time for College Hoops; the smorgasboard of early season tournaments. It is a great chance to see the nation's elite teams retreat from the comfort of home and match up against other elite powers.

This year seems to have brought more marquee matchups than ever as Puerto Rico, Orlando, Cancun amd the Virgin Islands bring solid fields to join the usuals in Maui and New York.

Maui Invitational: Nov 23-25th

A field loaded with good, not great teams kicks off with a quadruple header on ESPN. Ned a reason to watch? 5 of the 8 teams have legit "bubble" written all over them and some would lump Gonzaga in as the 6th.

12:30 Colorado v. Gonzaga, followed by Cincinnati v. Vanderbilt
7 PM: Maryland v. Chaminade followed by Wisconsin v. Arizona

Nov 24th: 7PM: Md/Cham v. UC/Vandy, 9:30PM Gonz/Colo. v. Wisc/AZ

Nov 25th: Afernoon, 5th-8th, 7PM Consolation, 9:30 Championship

Maniac's Picks: Maryland over Cincinnati & Gonzaga over Wisconsin, Maryland cutting down the nets, Cincinnati winning the consolation game in a style-contrasting battle with Bo's Badgers.

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The Dirty Forty

OK - Let's start with an explanation of this column, which will be a running feature through the last week of the regular season and conference tournaments.

The theory behind it is that there are essentially 40 spots available for the NCAA tournament. There are 34 at-large bids, and 6 BCS conferences, which in all probability will feature a conference tournament champion who would have earned an at-large bid anyway (I know, not always, look at Georgia last year... but also look at the last 20 years - back off dude.)

The reason for this article, I think many of our readers will find it interesting how LITTLE room there is for all the teams that are conventionally thought of as "in." By my calculation, there are 29 LOCKS, with another 4 or 5 pretty close to that category. That leaves only 5 or 6 bids truly in play this week.

Running through this list, based on your instinct and what you hear on TV and broadcasts, say out loud (unless you are at work, then just think your answer dumbass, and get some damn work done and dig our economy out of the toilet...) whether the following teams are IN or OUT.

Florida.
Providence.
Penn State.
Michigan.
Maryland.
Arizona.
St Mary's.
Boston College.
UNLV.
Utah State.
Minnesota.
Virginia Tech.
West Virginia.
Dayton.
Oklahoma State.
Texas.
Wisconsin.
Siena.
Davidson.
Texas A&M.
New Mexico.
Rhode Island.
Kentucky.

Well, if you said YES more than 10 times, there is NOWHERE to put them; unless you and Jim Boeheim want to expand the field.

And for the record, the Maniac did include Syracuse in the 29 LOCKS...

OK, onto Tha' FORTY:

Locks (in alphabetical conference order):
North Carolina, Duke, Wake, Clemson, Florida State,
XAVIER, UConn, Pitt, LVille, Marquette, 'Nova, Syracuse,
Michigan St, Purdue, Illinois,
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri,
MEMPHIS, BUTLER, CREIGHTON,
Washington, Ucla, Arizona St, Cal,
Lsu, Tennessee, Byu, Utah

That makes 29. Those in ALL CAPS are likely or possible 1-bid conferences; losing their tournament SHRINKS the 40 by one slot. So if, say, Butler were to lose, it becomes "39." You get the point... And YES, Creighton is a lock. NO, Siena and Utah State are not.

Very Likely (in order of solidity in field):
West Virginia, Texas, Penn State, UNLV, Dayton

And then there were SIX: (random order, but try to choose five from this list!!)
Providence, Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Rhode Island, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Northwestern, Arizona, Siena, South Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, Auburn, St. Mary's, Davidson, Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State.

If you are counting, that was pick six out of 23. It is not as easy as Vitale and Hubert Davis make it seem (by last count, both have 417 teams in this year's field).

I'll give you the Maniac Six tomorrow evening, with justification for each, please feel free to fire your arguments (and YOUR SIX) my way, or leave them as comments at the bottom of the entry. Just to get you started, St. Mary's and Arizona are on my list.

THE WHY'S:
For the five "almost ins" - Texas and West Virginia are pretty much no-brainers, but need to not have anything too too crazy happen like Oklahoma State or Providence go on a huge run in their respective conference tourneys and zip past them, or have a slew of disastrous small conference upsets. Both those two are pretty much locks. Which would make 31 now...

Penn State closes with Iowa; assuming they win that they will be 22-9 (11-7) and a solid 4th in the Big Ten. That gets you a dance card.

UNLV and Dayton have good records, play in undervalued leagues, but most importantly have marquee wins. Dayton has wins over Marquette, Xavier and an Auburn win that looks better every day. They close with a tricky game hosting Duquesne, and would feel much safer with that win secured and a win or two in the conference tourney, (especially with Rhode Island surging), but for now they are safely in the #8-#10 seed range.

UNLV has the BYU and Utah wins. but most importantly a win over Arizona and a road win over possible #1 seed Louisville in their hip pocket. That said the Rebels would be wise not to lose to San Diego State Saturday night...

That's 34. Let's say just THREE small-conference upsets or miracle runs happen. You then have THREE spots for the above 22 bubble mates.

Gotta love March!

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