Stock Up, Stock Down - Updating the VERY Fluid Bubble Picture

Selection Sunday is barely three weeks away and the scramble for position is starting to heat up.  Here's a quick recap of who helped their cause in the last five days and who is beginning to teeter.

STOCK UP:

Kansas State - The Wildcats saved their season Monday night with a convincing win over #1 Kansas.  Kudos to Jimmy Dykes of ESPN, who before the game said that if State had any chance of pulling the upset, senior Jacob Pullen needed to have a "Jimmer Fredette game." 

Pullen did just that, scoring a career-high 37 points.  The win resurects the Wildcats tourney life...for now.  Those two losses to Colorado are still a tough hurdle to overcome, particualrly if the Buffaloes can finish strong.

Boston College - I'm still not sold on the Eagles tourney worthiness, but their 76-72 win over Maryland moves them into much better position in the down ACC.

North Carolina - The Tarheels are still a Top 4 seed in the Maniac's book.  Their road win at Clemson all but assured them second place in the ACC, and put the final nail in Clemson's already weak NCAA chances.

Colorado State - Don't look now, but the Rams are one of the nation's most surprising at-large contenders.  I am not sure if the MWC can pull four bids, so it is imperative they keep pace with UNLV these last three weeks.  Saturday's win over New Mexico was enormous for CSU, and the final nail in Coach Alford's New Mexico Lobos' coffin.

The Rams still control their own destiny.  The host UNLV, and travel to BYU and San Diego State in three of their final five games.  Take two of those three and avoid any slip-ups and the Rams are in.  Easier said than done, but if you would have told and CSU fans the previous scenario back in November, I assure you they'd have taken it with a huge grin.

Temple - The Owls went on the road and hammered Dayton.  The Owls are all but a lock at this point, and have a shot at creeping as high as a #5 or #6 if they finish strong (which they seem to do every year).

Florida - We wrote about the Florida v. Tennessee game at length, so no need to rehash the ugliness.  But for Billy D, the Gators are nearing lock status.  With a stong finish they could creep as high as a #4, however with a tailspin they could slide all the way down to the #9-#10 range.

Memphis - Back to back wins over Southern Miss and UAB (Sat & Wed) all but clinch the Tigers as a tourney team in the Maniac's book.

St. John's - Lavin and the Johnnies got a huge win, 59-57 at Cincinnati Sunday.  ESPN has them as a #7 currently.  The followed up the win with a 80-68 win over Marquette - a huge win made even bigger by how much it damaged their fellow Big East bubble denizen's chances  We still have them holding in the #9 range - but definitely a tourney team barring a late collapse. 

Cincinnati - Yes, they lost in the aforementioned game, but the Wednesday pasting of Louisville moves the Bearcats into really good position to capture a well-deserved tenth bid for the Big East.


Virginia Tech - The Hokies are making a late surge towards finally ending up on the right side of the bubble.  Sunday's 102-74 win over Georgia Tech was an impressive offensive display.  Tuesday's pasting of Maryland moves them even closer, and they are beginning to separate them from the ACC bubble pack. 

Butler - The Bulldogs are making a furious rush to get back in the at-large discussion.  They've now won five straight, including wins over Wisc-Milwaukee, Wright State and Cleveland State to climb back to 11-5 in the Horizon League.


STOCK DOWN:

Duquesne - The Dukes tourney hopes took a devestating blow with Saturday's home loss to Xavier.  It isn't so much that the loss is bad more than it was the Dukes one great chance to earn a validating win that slipped through their fingers.  Despite their 11-2 A10 record, they still have only one Top 50 win to their resume (and eight losses).

Southern Miss & UAB - Both fell victim to conference bully Memphis this week; their respective tournament hopes might have fallen victim with the losses.  Neither is dead, but both have a huge road ahead of them, particularly Southern Miss who is nearing "must win the conference tourney" status.

Northern Iowa - Their at-large hopes gasped their last breath Saturday in their 18-point home loss to Wichita State.  The Shockers are looking good for March; the Panther will need to pull a shocker if they hope to Dance again this year.

UNLV - The Reb's missed a golden opportunity Saturday, losing 63-57 at home to San Diego State.  UNLV needs to finish strong to earn a third bid for the MWC (and hold off Colorado State).

Georgia - The Bulldogs Wednesday night loss to Vandy was a damaging one.  Georgia falls to 6-5 in the SEC and just 17-8 overall.  It's fair to say they MUST win one of their next two games; at Tennessee and at Florida to stay in the tourney picture.

FiveTen-Win Teams: Real or Fraud?

One of the things that makes college hoops difficult to decipher for the casual fan is the relative meaninglessness of a team's overall record.  With over 340 Division I opponents and literally thousands of lower tier teams to possibly schedule, some gaudy records are built on solid foundations and others are sandcastles nervously waiting for the high tide of conference play.

With that in mind, let's take a look at ten teams with gaudy win totals and see how long they can stand up.


5.  Iowa State (11-2) -- I can't blame the Cyclones for scheduling they way they have.  In a Big Twelve league with seven teams substantially better than them, hoping for even .500 in league play is a reach.  The strategy then becomes: fatten up on a dozen or so near-nobodies, hope to eek out eight wins in conference and dangle nervously in front of the selection committee as a 20-win team from a power conference.

I don't think it is going to work out that way for the Cyclones, but you can't really fault them for trying.  The only two wins of any quality are three point wins over Creighton and Iowa.  Their two losses are not appalling; Northern Iowa and Cal, both competitive games.

It's hard to see Iowa State getting more than five or six wins in conference play, leaving even the NIT an optimistic destanation.

Verdict:  FRAUD

4.  Boston College (10-3) -- The Eagles are a tough squad to figure out.  They get beat at home by Yale.  Then they turn around and beat Texas A&M, Cal, Indiana, Providence and open conference play with a road win at Maryland.  Just when you are ready to grant the Eagles their mulligan for the Yale game, they lose to A-10 middle-of-the packer Rhode Island.

Boston College has the talent to be a top four or five team in the ACC, usually enough to earn a spot on the dance card though this year the ACC appears to be as poor as it has been in a long time.  I wouldn't bet my life on BC making it to the tourney, but despite several curious losses they have amassed the best resume in the conference outside of Duke.  .500 or better in the ACC should land the Eagles safely in the tournament.

Verdict:  REAL


3.  Belmont (9-3) -- The Bruins gained a small measure of national recognition after taking the Blue Devils to the final minute in their opening round tournament game three years ago.

Today, their close but not quite ability still seems in tact.  I wouldn't take Belmont straight up, but against a top tier opponent, I take them with the points.  They're gonna cover.

Two of their three losses this season are to Tennessee, each in games that were close until the final minute.  Their other loss is a respectable nine point defeat at Vanderbilt.  They don't have anything resembling a quality win on their resume and Atlantic Sun play won't afford them the opportunity to earn one.  They have little to no shot at an at-large bid, but are definetly a team to watch out for in a 2/15 or even a 3/14 opening rounder.

Verdict:  REAL

2.  Richmond (10-3) -- The Spiders at time look like not only a tourney team, but one that could play beyond the opening weekend.  Other times they look like NIT fodder at best.  Coach Chris Mooney in his sixth year at Richmond has not just won a few games, he has built a program that can compete in the A-10 year in and year out, as well as compete on a national scale as well.

The Spiders knew they needed to play a more challenging schedule in order to merit at-large worth, and they have done just that in 2010-2011.  The results have been a little mixed.  They snagged good resume wins over Seton Hall, VCU and a great win over Purdue.  They also have some lesser but still good wins over Arizona State, Wright State and Wake Forest.  The losses are a little bit scattered; no harm done in a seven point road loss at Old Dominion but the losses to Georgia tech and Iona sting a little bit.

It outs the committee in a tough spot if the Spiders fail to finish in the top three in league play.

Fortunately for Richmond they are going to get a few chances to add some quality resume wins once league play starts, though not as many as one would think at first glance due to the unbalanced A-10 schedule.  They'll get only one chance against Xavier, Temple and Dayton. the three most likely challengers.  The Temple and Dayton games are on the road, while Xavier and Rhode Island make the trip to Virginia.

As long as the Spiders can split the above four and avoid more than two or three "bad" losses, I see the Spiders making a return trip to the tourney.

Verdict:  REAL

1.  Cincinnati (13-0) -- Hard to believe, but the Bearcats haven;t made the tournament since Bob Huggins was dismissed five seasons ago.  Andy Kennedy had them close in his lone season at the helm, and Mick Cronin has yet to even have the Bearcats close enough to feel any drama heading into Selection Sunday.

This year they have raced out to a perfect 13-0 season, though their schedule to this point has not just been sub par, it's been downright embarrassing.  Their lone impressive win was a 68-34 demolition of Dayton (that's a really good win).  Aside from that?  Oklahoma (possibly one of the five worst Power 6 conference teams), Wright State and Miami (OH) and they haven't even squared off against a team in shouting range of the Top 100.

Life in the Big East won't be so easy.  The Bearcats have all the hallmarks of a perplexing selection day struggle.  8-10 in Big East play would get them to 21 wins.  That makes this year's Crosstown Shootout with rival Xavier even more anticipated.

The question is, can the Bearcats notch eight, nine or even ten wins inside the top heavy Big East?  Try this on for size, they could get six simply by beating DePaul twice, Rutgers, South Florida and Seton Hall all at home and by winning at Providence.  That leaves them twelve opportunities to pick up two or three quality wins, including a home and home with St. John's.

The biggest misconception about the Big East is that it is a "deep" league.  Yes, they have a ton of elite teams every year, but there are a whopping SIXTEEN teams in the league.  The dregs of the BEast are every bit as bad as any other major conference, only with the huge number of teams everyone gets a few extra have-nots to fatten up on.

My gut feel - the Bearcats get into the tourney over perhaps a more deserving team like a Wichita State or a UAB.

Verdict:  FRAUD

Tune in tomorrow as we explore five more teams, including a few big names out West!
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A-Plus Night for the A-10

Tonight was a big night for bolstering the national profile of the Atlantic 10.  Last season they flirted with sending as many as six teams to the Dance, before eventually settling for three, with three more in the NIT.  This season looked to be a down year, with Temple, Xavier and Richmond all taking a disappointing early loss or two.

The Atlantic 10 collectively came up big tonight.  First, Dayton took down CAA standout George Mason 73-67.  After some early struggles Dayton is looking more and more like an NCAA Tournament team.

Richmond pummeled Wake Forest on the road 90-74.  Wake is undeniably down this year, and will likely finsh with a sub .500 record, however aany blowout road win against an ACC school is good for the overall profile.

Lastly, and perhaps most impressivly, Rhode Island knocked off Boston College 67-65.  The Eagles got some pub for their early season loss to lowly Yale.  Since that upset they had regrouped and and won seven straight, including wins over Cal, Indiana, UMass, Providence and Maryland.  This is a great win for the Rams who played Pitt tough in the season opener, and had looked uneven since.

The win moves the Rams to 9-4 and puts another team in the at-large conversation for the league.  Likely no more than three will dance, but with Temple, Xavier, Dayton, Richmond and Rhode Island the A-10 is again relevant on the national stage.

Early Highs & Lows

As the saying goes, You can't win 'em all. Especially when you are the big boy on the block with a big target on your back for most of your non-conference games as smaller schools ramp up for one of the precious few chances to get some national attention.  Every year several mid or low majors jump up and pick off one of the big boys, and just a short week into the season, this year is proving no exception.

Here's a quick rundown of what you might have missed in the opening week; five teams that have underwhelmed and a few more that have impressed.  With about a half-dozen preseason tournaments going on this weekend, this list is sure to grow rapidly.  The Maniac will provide another solid recap on Monday, as well as issuing some "Upset Alerts" for this weekend, so be sure to check back tonight and tomorrow

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Five Underwhelmers:

1.  Boston College - When you lose at home to Yale, you immediately earn the top spot on our ignominious list.  With dates with Texas A&M, Indiana and Providence looming, the Eagles better straighten up and fly right in a hurry or this season could get ugly.

2.  LSU -  It seems like the Tigers seem to find their way into the Maniac's doghouse every Winter.  Usually it's for their dreadful non-conference schedule.  This year, it's for their dreadful schedule AND getting blasted at home by Nichols State.  This Sunday's date with Memphis will be a good indication as to whether it was just a rough night or the start of a rough season.


3.  Wake Forest - Perhaps no team in the country has been hit harder by early NBA entrants than the Deacons.  Kentucky may have lost more players, but at least there it is sort of expected.  It's also far easier to reload in the Bluegrass than it is in the pale shadow of Duke and UNC.  It's an excuse for the Deacons to be down this season.  It's not an excuse for opening with a home loss to Atlantic Sun also-ran Stetson .  Following it up with a 90-69 drubbing, again at home, to Virginia Commonwealth has it looking like Wake could be near the bottom of a down ACC.

4.  Xavier - How does a 2-0 team make this list?  Easy if you have caught any of their first two home games.  The season opened with a comeback three point win over Western Michigan.  Two night ago they needed overtime to tackle the mighty Mastadons of IPFW.  Xavier may not technically be in a "power" conference, however being the only team in the country aside from Michigan State to earn a spot in the last three Sweet Sixteens lends for "power" conference expectations.  Their first two contests didn't meet them.

With one of the nation's toughest non-conference schedules (Wofford, Iowa, Butler, Gonzaga, Georgia, LSU, Cincinnati and Wake Forest - plus possible meetings with either Old Dominion/Clemson or Seton Hall/Alabama) the Muskies better see some improvement quickly or it could be more than their Sweet 16 streak in jeopardy, it could be their tourney appearance streak as well...


5.  South Florida - Last year the Bulls became media darlings of sorts as they made a daring run towards the NCAA Tournament despite being projected 14th or 15th in preseason BEast coaches polls.  The Bulls came up just short, but entered this season with high expectations, despite Dominique James leaving early for the NBA.  With losses to Southern Miss and UCF, the Bulls are not only digging a nearly-impossible to climb out of ditch, they would also be in last place in Conference USA.

And a Few Pleasant Surprises...

*  Gardner Webb - Yes, they got boat raced down in Tallahassee, but the opening win over Charlotte was impressive.  With upcoming dates with Michigan, Oklahoma, Arizona State and Louisville the Bulldogs will get a few more chances to add another profile win.  Don't laugh, one of those wins could be the difference between a #13 and a virtually unwinnable #15 or #16 seed in March.

*  Georgia - Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee enter the season ranked and Vanderbilt is considered a fringe tournament team by most.  However, don't sleep on Georgia in the slightly overrated SEC East.  Their win over Colorado is a better win that it appears at first blush, and the 'Dawgs handled them with relative ease.  A Thanksgiving date with Notre Dame and early December hookups with Georgia Tech and UAB will give the 'Dawgs a chance to build a solid profile before conference play.

*  South Dakota State - 3-0 with a road win at Iowa is an encouraging start for the Jackrabbits (yes, that's really their mascot).  They'll get two more shots; hosting Nevada and visiting Minnesota.  They'll get some stiff competition from Oral Roberts and IUPUI (and possibly Oakland) in the Summit league, but early season BCS-conference wins are what keep low majors off that 15/16 line come March.

*  St Mary's - They've played two non D-1 throwaways, but the 76-71 win over an improved St John's squad could be a nice chip to pile in March.  Omar Samham is gone, but don't make the mistake of overlooking the Gaels.  They'll get their chance on December 1st to do something conference rival Gonzaga could not; beat San Diego State.

*  San Diego State - Speaking of which, the Aztecs might be the best mid-major in the country this season.  Their road win in the Kennel is as impressive a win as a team has notched so far in this young season.  If "best" seems like hyperbole, it isn't.  They have to be considered no worse than co-favorite with BYU to win the Mountain West, and appear to be ahead of Gonzaga, Memphis, Xavier, Butler and the other usual suspects.

And the recap wouldn't be complete without a tip of the beanie to the Yale Bulldogs, despite losses to Quinnipiac and Providence, they were still able to go into Chestnut Hill and pull off the stunner. 

  Tweet it!!

Memo to BC - STOP Scheduling Ivy League Schools!

Stop me if you've read this article before on MarchManiacs... do not adjust your monitor.  It IS a new article.

This time it's even worse as BC is felled on their home floor by titans of the Ivy... Yale.  The Eagles dropped the contest 75-67 in front of just under 4,000 stunned fans.

Last year, at least Harvard had future NBA player Jeremy Lin on the roster.  No such story for the Yalies.  Tough loss for the Eagles, who better recoup quickly with Texas A&M, Indiana, UMass, Providence and Maryland all coming up in the next three weeks.



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"Damn You Maine!!"

Those might be the words echoed tonight by Rhode Island and Harvard after Maine's 52-51 upset (yes, we can really use the word "upset" this time) over Boston College.

It is a loss that certainly devalues the "good win" they thought they had earned earlier in the year.

The good news for Rhode Island, they earned yet another resume builder today beating Oklahoma State. The good news for Harvard? The atlarge chances were really non-existant anyhow. If they want to dance Jeremy Lin and company will have to take down Cornell in conference play (no small task)

I googled "Maine basketball" and this was the first photo I came up with. I related news the kid on the left got shot with a BB gun again this Chirstmas...

BTW - It has been brought to my attention that our email subscribers do not always have pictures imbedded in the articles - if so CLICK HERE for full site

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How Bout Them Apples?!? Harvard Tops BC... AGAIN

It's becoming an annual tradition at March Maniacs. The pre-Christmas Go-Harvard article after stunning and stomping the Boston College Eagles.

But, yet again this year, Tommy Amaker's Crimson have earned it. Tonight theyagain tackled the Big East giant, 74-67. BC came in on a three game win streak which boasted wins over Providence (who hammered GW tonight scoring 110 points), Michigan and previously undefeated Miami.

The win moves the Crimson to 7-2. Their losses are a disappointing 3-point loss to Army and a stunningly impressive 6-point loss to UConn. They have also beaten a very good William & Mary team that will challenge for the automatic bid in the Colonial. It might be a little over-zealous to say they are building a NCAA Tourney resume, they still need to win the Ivy. But should they fall to a very good Cornell team it doesn't seem out of the question for them to float on the NIT radar.

"Wanna go to a Harvard bar and f*&k-up some smart kids?"
Not tonight....

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Anonymous "Signature"

The phrase de' jour this season in college hoops is "signature win." Everyone needs to have their "signature win." Providence got theirs this week beating Pitt. Cincinnati lacks one, and it will likely be their bubble popping lest they win tonight against West Virginia. Maryland got theirs this weekend taking down Carolina in overtime; ditto for BC's bookend wins over Duke and the aforementioned Heels.

But at what point does the "signature" begin to fade?? Last night ESPN threw up a graphic of the "signature wins" for the ACC's bottom six teams. FOUR of them read "Wake Forest."

Leading me to question....

Just a thought. I don't hate Wake, just think they have gotten more mileage out of the timing of when they won more than any team in the nation. Their resume, is quite comparable to a lot of teams ranked 15-25, only they didn't lose out of conference (nor did they beat anyone other than BYU). So what exactly does a "signature win" entail??

Anyhow, several teams will be seeking their "signature wins" this week as we franticly race towards Selection Sunday:

Thursday:

West Virginia @ Cincinnati - Cincy needs a win over Huggs to stay alive
Minnesota @ Illinois - Gophers in danger of sliding onto..and off the bubble
Memphis @ UAB (9pm) - Darth Vaden needs to strike back in a major way to keep the Blazers slim at-large hopes alive
USC @ Cal - Last gasp for USC as well tonight at Cal

Saturday:

Clemson @ Florida State (2pm) - big game for both seeding-wise
Notre Dame @ UConn (2pm) - Do or die for the Irish...again.
Illinois St @ Creighton (2pm) - Great game; Jays can not afford any losses before MVC title game to snag an at-large bid
Arizona @ Washington - Win for 'Cats takes them from "bubble" to "lock" status
Duke @ VA Tech - Hokies got big win at Clemson, a win over Duke might put them in the Dance
LSU @ Kentucky (4pm) - Kentucky is in danger of playing themselves out of the tourney
Utah @ BYU - One would think both teams are safely in, but the winner removes all doubt
Utah St @ Nevada - The Aggies are 25-3, and still not quite a lock, they can ill-afford to give away another L and be safely in.

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Bubblin' on Tuesday

Here's a quick guide to tonight's biggest bubble-impacting contests.

Penn State @ Ohio State:

Who'da thunk it? The Buckeyes looked to be tourney locks a month ago, and no one thought Penn State would even be in the mix before the season started. Most pundits have OSU just in and PSU just out. Think tonight swings the pendulum a little?!?
Maniac's Pick: Penn State +6.5

Pitt @ Providence:

Call it the Friars' last stand. For weeks we all tried to find reasons to convince the public the Friars' had earned their dance ticket. Well, most of us are just about out of ways to justify them getting in. 8th in the Big East or not, they just haven't done enough to merit inclusion in the Big Dance.

So tonight they get their chance.
Maniac's Pick: Pitt -9

Florida St @ Boston College:

BC has been great against the Golliath's...yet average against the rest of the conference. Their perch on the bubble is precarious at best, but another resume win tonight over the Seminoles should cement their tourney status.

FSU meanwhile is the opposite; they have done what they were supposed to in conference but not gotten that big marquee win. BC doesn't fit that bill either, but the Noles can ill-afford a loss as they chase a Top-4 seed.
Maniac's Pick: FSU +2.5

Florida @ LSU:

I know you have heard me say it before, but seriously, what is with the media hard-on for LSU?!? I can;t recall a team fattening up on more bums and raising in the polls as steadily as the Tigers over the past four weeks. Once again, let me remind you in their non-conference games they did not beat a single team in the RPI Top 100.

Staggering. Meanwhile, the Gators remain my frustrating sleeper team that needs to wake up. I think Billy D and Calathes get it done tonight, and I think the committee will punish LSU for the scheduling transgressions and give them no better than an #8 seed...
Maniac's Pick: Florida +4.5


Two other bubble games, but no picks:

Texas A&M and Nebraska play in a virtual elimination game tonight. Both still have work to do with a win, but a loss seals their fate.

BYU and San Diego State hook up in a great MWC matchup, BYU is "in" while San Diego St is "out" in most projections (including ours) but their resumes are much more similar than most people realize. Tonight's tilt gainst Steve Fischer's squad in San Diego is quietly one of the more impactful games in the country.

A win tonight would be "fab" for Fisher

Two week stretch run really gets rolling tonight...enjoy

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Saturday's HUGE Wins

Yet another bizarre and delightful day of college hoops. Wake Forest did pollsters a favor by eliminating any possible consternation over who will be number one when the polls come out tomorrow when they lost at the buzzer to previously winless Georgia Tech. Yep, 0-6 in ACC play before taking on the Deacons who have beaten Duke and UNC. You try and figure out this season...

Yet The Yellow Jackets don't make our "Big Win" list; because the game ostensibly means very little. Georgia Tech is building for next year, but is in too deep of a hole to even entertain dreams of an at-large bid. It is unlikely they will see North of .500 and be eligible for post-season play period. SO, they don't make the list. (However, Wake could make the "bad loss" list for sure!)

Let's run down some of the biggest wins across the country yesterday:

Missouri got a much-needed win, and in convincing fashion whn they whooped Baylor yesterday. The Bears don't seem to have the magic they had last season, and are in real danger of missing the tourney. Missouri puts themself back in solid position after slipping a little with thir loss to K State earlier in the week.

Speaking on whom, how about Kansas State?? Left for dead a week ago, they beat Missouri and then go into Austin for their second straight win yesterday. It is still a tall mountain to climb, given their poor non-conference resume, but for the immediate time being, Kansas State has put themselves back in the tourney conversation.

What to make of the Pac-10? Just when everyone was ready to write off UCLA, everyone collapses around them and the Bruins once again look like the team to beat after a 30+ point beating of Stanford. Washington captured a huge win (84-71) at Arizona State yesterday, and Arizona continues their spirited resurgance winning over Washington State. Meanwhile USC reasserted their tourney hopes, and diminished those of Cal with their 73-62 win late last night.

It is a similar mess in the much maligned SEC. Tennessee was on the ropes but bounced up nicely with a sound beating of the Gators last night in Knoxville. The win pulls the Vols into a 4-way 2-loss tie atop the SEC East. South Carolina put a huge chip in their tourney pile with a win yesterday in Lexington. The Gamecocks are the most overlooked of the bunch, but at 16-4 (5-2) with their only non-conferences losses against Clemson and a tough Charelston squad and wins over Baylor and Kentucky their resume is looking tourney-solid.

LSU appears to be asserting themselves as the team to beat in the SEC West with another convincing victory, this one over Arkansas. Meanwhile Ole Miss made things more interesting beating in-state rival and formerly West-leading Mississippi State.

The two teams in the ACC that needed wins to keep their sagging tourney hopes alive got them yesterday. Boston College got a nice win over Virginia Tech, and Maryland got a desperatly needed victory over bubble-mate Miami. Again, there is still a month to play but BC and Maryland are right in the same sentance as Miami, Virginia Tech and FSU right now. I wouldn't want to be the committee who has to pick two or three and leave the others behind.

And perhaps the biggest "bubble-win" of the day, Northwestern (12-7, 4-5) downs Wisconsin. It wouldn't have seemed possible two months ago, but right now the Wildcats would be one of the last two or three teams left out of the tourney. The Big Ten will get six or seven bids, and Michigan and Wisconsin are leaving the door wide open. Northwestern is just a few wins from being in the Field. It goes without saying we will continue to follow the Wildcats' progress as they chase the school's first EVER NCAA bid.

Wednesday's Pick

Wow, the Maniac is still reeling from the display Jodie Meeks put on last night. Highlights don't do it justice my friends...

As far as the Maniac last night, precient selections of the road wins notched by Kentucky and FSU, as well as sweating out his lock pick of TCU +15. The only loss was on lost-cause IU, suffering, along with the audience, on yet another nationally televised blowout.

Here are Wednesday's selections:

Michigan State travels to surprising Penn State. Talor Battle has been great for the Nittany Lions, who still remain an outside candidate to sneak into the Big Dance. However, Michigan State has gelled of late and the talent discrepency is really large between them. I like Penn State, but no way they cover tonight.

Maniac's Pick: Michigan State -5 1/2 (LOCK)

Syracuse begins their four-game gauntlet tonight with a trip to the nation's capital to take on Greg Monroe and the Hoyas. These two teams always sem to lock up in tough battles, I expect tonight to be no different. I like the Hoyas, but will take the Orange with the points.

Maniac's Pick: Syracuse +6

Florida heads to Auburn tonight to take on the Tigers. Auburn has athleticism and rebounding, but lacks playmakers and shooting. It sees like the type of matchup that bodes well for the Gators, provided they can take care of the basketball and get on the defensive glass. Year Two of the "Baby Gators" has not been quite as successful as some hoped, but tonight's win would be a good positive step to returning the the NCAA Touney.

Maniac's Pick: Florida -3

Arkansas has notched two of the most impressive non-conference wins of anyone in the country, beating Oklahoma and Texas. SO why are they two point dogs tonight at Mississippi? Because the SEC is full of parity; good, yet few (if any) very good teams. Mississippi entered the season with SEC West title aspirations, though they took a hit when Chris Warren got hurt. Arkansas has a lot of talent most people have never heard of. A loss tonight puts a tarnish on their two big wins. I think John Pelphrey will make sure his Hogs know that.

Maniac's Pick: Arkansas +2

Last year's darlings of the Valley travel to this year's hopefuls when Drake visits Illinois State. We were real high on the Redbirds and their unbeaten start until MVC parity reared it's ugly head. It is that same parity that makes it crazy to lay 9 on anyone in this league. Gimme Drake and the points.

Maniac's Pick: Drake +9 (LOCK)

Wake visits BC in the proverbial "trap game." Fresh off their emotional fantastic victory over UNC they would seem ripe for the plucking. Just like...exactly, BC versus Harvard. Don't think that won't come up several hundred times in tonight's pregame locker room talk. Wake shows some maturity and poise tonight, and handles their business over a less-talented BC team.

Maniac's Pick: Wake -4 (LOCK)

Utah @ Air Force - Interesting game, gimme Air Force at home, if only becuase getting 8 is like getting 15 for a team that plays a normal tempo.

Maniac's Pick: Air Force +8

Everything's Crimson

Everything is Crimson. The Maniac's face after proclaiming the Tarheels unbeatable. The Crimson & Crean nearly notching their first Big Ten win over Michigan. The jerseys of the BC Eagles who slayed the Goliath. Oh, and the new number one team in the nation.

That of course being... the Harvard Crimson.

This is my early nominee for scoreboard line of the year, it's amazingness (sic.) amplified when viewed in the proper sequence.

Sunday, Jan 5th: Boston College 85 @ North Carolina 78

Tuesday, Jan 7th: Harvard 82 @ Boston College 70

Tommy, the Maniac could not agree more...

Applying simple mathematics to Vegas oddsmaking, it would make sense that Tommy Amaker's Harvard Crimson would be a 21 point favorite over Roy Williams' hapless Heels. Oh, but both of those wins above were ON THE ROAD. Make the line -26.5

Of course, I jest. In the topsy-turvy world of college sports anything can, and does happen. Using the simple Maniac eye test, Carolina is still the top team in the nation and will still likely march on in March as a number one seed in Ford Field. One loss is simply that; just one loss. Does it snowball like Gonzaga's OT dagger from UConn? Does it toughen you up like Duke's stumble in Crysler Arena (see later pastings of Purdue and Xavier)?

You never can know for sure. But for one glorious night, the Crimson can say without turning red that they can play with anyone in the country.

Wow.

Humble pie by the truckload for the Maniac tonight as UNC drops their ACC opener...at HOME...to Unranked Boston College 85-78.

More later in the weekly rankings, but a stunning result in Chapel Hill.