Trouble Bubblin'? Michigan State Among Teams on the Slide

It's February, so all college hoops fans know the word de juor from here on out - that of course being the dreaded "bubble."  Nearly every conference is about at the halfway point and most teams across the country are gearing up for that all important (though the committee claims it officially doesn't matter...) ten game stretch run to the end of the season.

Should have set a wake-up call

In our first bubble update, we're going to focus on some teams who are sliding the wrong way.  There were more than a few of them tonight.

Baylor had a weird circumstance today, as their game was moved up to an early afternoon tip-off due to last night's contest in Norman being postponed by bad weather.  Perhaps someone should have told the Bears to get up a little early... They looked horribly flat and took a potentially devastating loss, 73-66 to Oklahoma.  The loss dropped Baylor to 14-7 (4-4).

It's odd to see Memphis lose a game in Conference USA.  It's really odd to see them suffer their second straight loss, on their home floor, to another opponent with no chance of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team.  But that's exactly what happened tonight.  The Tigers stole the ball with eight seconds to play and had two attempts at an overtime-forcing three, but when the second attempt clanged off the rim Tulsa escaped with a 68-65 win.  Memphis falls to 16-6 (5-3) and in some real danger of missing the tourney for a second straight year.

Kudos to Tom Crean and his suddenly competitive Hoosiers.  However, bad news for Minnesota who finds themselves back on the familiar bubble after dropping a should-win, even on the road, to IU.  Tubby's Gophers are still ranked in the Top 25, but at 16-6, and 5-5 in the Big Ten with upcoming games against Ohio State and Illinois, the Gophers are not on nearly as solid footing as one might think.

We feel your pain Tom...

Lastly, it's hard to even quantify the disaster that is coming to life to Tom Izzo and his Spartans.  Ranked in the Top 5 in the nation early in the season, things might have hit rock bottom tonight with their twenty point blowout loss at lowly Iowa.  It is only the second conference win on the season for the Hawkeyes, who climb to 9-13 with the win.


Michigan State failed to do something that South Dakota State accomplished to start this season; win in Carver-Hawkeye Arena.  It's beyond panic time in East Lansing.  With the loss the Spartans fall to 13-9, (5-5).  More troubling than their record, which is given some leeway with the tremendous strength of schedule, is their recent play.  The Spartans are 2-5 over the last seven games, with losses to three of the four worst teams in the conference; Iowa, Michigan and Penn State, and one of their two wins an overtime escape against the other cellar-dweller, Indiana.

Any responsible bracket projection done today has to exclude the Spartans, as bizarre as that is to type.  With two of their next three games AT Wisconsin (where no one ever wins)  and @ Ohio State (who is #1 in the nation) it is all but last-call for Sparty and their nearly two-decade long run of tourney appearances.

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Big Ten: Mid Season Conference Round Up

The Big Ten entered the season thought to be one of the nation's elite conferences, and they've done little to dispel the notion thus far.  If anything, the recent stellar play of Penn State and the at least occasional displays of competence by Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern, make the Big Ten as deep top-to-bottom as any league in the country.

At the midpoint, it is safe to assume an absolute minimum of five NCAA Tourney bids, with a sixth being highly likely and a seventh being a remote, but unlikely possibility.

Here's where we stand so far:

LOCKS: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin
SHOULD BE IN:  Minnesota
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY: Northwestern, Penn State
NO SHOT:  Michigan. Indiana, Iowa

Ohio State is #1 in the country and shows no signs of slowing down.  Tonight's visit from Purdue will be a nice test for the Buckeyes coming off their emotional win Saturday in Champagne.  They have the inside/outside balance needed for a deep run to the Final Four and more.  They won't run the table, and could even lose tonight to Purdue, but I'd be surprised if they drop more than three or four games all year.  Expect the Buckeyes to be a #1 seed in March.

Purdue is an interesting case.  People have focused so much on who they are missing (Robbie Hummel) they've overlooked two All-American candidates they do have in E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson.  The senior inside/out combo is as good as any pair in the country and give Purdue the core to make a run at the Final Four.  I've liked this team all season - and they are only getting better as their role players begin to get some confidence and court time.  They could end up as high as a #1 seed with a nice run to win the Big Ten, but more likely settle in around the #3 line.

It's almost February, so that must mean it is time for Michigan State to start turning it on in preparation for March.  Tom Izzo has perfected the "Final Four run from a 3 or 4 seed" act many times, and might just do it again this year.  The Spartans certainly have the talent to be a top seed, but like Purdue, likely settle around the #3 line.

Illinois is another team with the personnel to make a deep run in March.  Their record suggests I should have them slotted behind Minnesota and Wisconsin, but Illinois gets the "lock" nod due to who they have played and lost to.  Losses to Texas, Missouri and Wisconsin away from home shouldn't drop the Illini too far in the committee's eyes.  They'll still likely endure a handfull of losses, but should have a strong enough body of work to land safely in the 4/5 seed range.

Wisconsin strikes again.  They don't have NBA talent loading up their roster like some of their Big Ten counterparts, but all Bo Ryan and his Badgers do is win win win no matter what.  Currently 5-2 in conference, the Badgers are in position to finish second in arguably the top league in the country.  Trips to Ohio State and Purdue still loom, but the Badgers propensity to hammer lesser opponents (including this weekend 32-point drubbing of Northwestern) serves them favorably for an 11 or 12 win season and as high as a #3 seed, but no certainly no worse than a #5 seed in March.

Minnesota is all but a lock, but their lack of marquee wins means they still need to hold up over the rigors of Big Ten play. Early neutral court wins over North Carolina and West Virginia help, but the real bulk of their Big Ten schedule is still to come.  The 3-point loss at Ohio State is encouraging, as is the home win over Purdue.  They only have four games left in conference against the "Top 5" so their home and homes with Northwestern and Indiana are vital to sweep.  My call - Minnesota lands around a #6 seed.


What to make of Northwestern?  They looked good in blowout wins over Indiana, Iowa and Michigan - as well as in tight three and four point losses against Michigan State.  This is also the team that took a 32-point drubbing by Wisconsin and a 25-point loss at Illinois.  Simply put?  The Wildcats are just OK - not terrible, yet nowhere close to the class of the Big Ten's elite.  That likely earns them a seventh place finish and yet another berth in the NIT.

Penn State is another team that is likely not making the Big Dance, but man are they giving teams fits in conference play.  The are only 3-4 in league play, but an impressive 3-4 it is; they own wins over Michigan State and Illinois and two road losses to Ohio State by just three and Purdue on a last-second buzzer beater, 63-62.  Those are their four most recent games.  So - does that great play translate into wins over the bottom half of the conference?  If it does, it isn't unreasonable to think Penn State could sneak up to 9-9, possibly even better in conference.  It may not be enough to get them to the tourney in Talor Battle's senior year, but the Nittany Lions are sure going to make things interesting.

Indiana fans surely must be growing impatient.  It's now year three of the Tom Crean Era, and there is little evidence of progress.  At least Hoosier fans can take solace knowing their good friends in Lexington were in the exact same spot three years ago and their rebuilding took Coach Cal about 45 minutes and four phone calls... The Hoosiers are simply outclassed in Big Ten play.  They lack the size, the scoring, the depth - basically everything needed to compete.  Even the NIT is a stretch for IU. Consider Crean on the clock next season.

Michigan is a program that continues to perplex me.  They have tradition, facilities, resources, a good coach; yet they continue to flounder on the edge of irrelevance.  They gave Kansas a heck of a fight earlier this year, showing some signs of life, but at 1-6 in conference with trips to Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota still remaining Michigan is looking a terrible conference season, and an overall sub-.500 season squarely in the face.  If not for the relative failures of the two coaches who preceded him, I'd say Beilein has reason to be nervous... and actually still might.

The pen is mightier than the team...

If one were taking the "Big Ten" exactly at its name's value, Iowa would be the school you would forget to include.  This once-proud basketball program continues to flounder at the bottom of the league with very little sign of digging itself up off the mat.  The Hawkeyes are just 8-11 (1-6) and have losses to powerhouses like South Dakota State and Long Beach State on their resume.  No postseason for these guys - this year - or anytime soon... Paging Dr. Tom Davis...Dr. Davis...

Big Ten Looks to Start a New Trend in ACC Challenge

Last season the Big Ten laid to rest the seemingly eternal streak of ACC dominance.  Winning last year's challenge was the first time the Big Ten had done so since the series inception more than a decade ago.

Last year's triumph may have been a minor upset, but in order for the ACC to get back on top it is going to take an upset of their own.  For perhaps the first time in the Challenge era, the Big Ten is clearly superior.

Here's a quick breakdown of the matchups, along with some fearless prognostications:

MONDAY:

Virginia @ Minnesota:  Tubby's Gophers have been one of the pleasant surprises of the early season, winning their preseason tourney by downing North Carolina and West Virginia.  They also handled solid mid-majors Wofford, Western Kentucky and Siena, all with relative ease.  They should cruise at home against the Cavaliers.

TUESDAY:

Iowa @ Wake Forest:  Both teams have been dreadful in the early going and look like cellar dwellars in their respective leagues.  I'll take Wake, who I think is a little better than they have played, at home over the Hawkeyes.

Georgia Tech @ Northwestern:  The Wildcats their first real test of the season.  I like them over the Jackets in a close game.

Ohio State @ Florida State:  The Buckeye's were #2 in our preseason poll, and remain the most legitimate challenger (along with Kansas) to the Blue Devils hopes to repeat.  Florida State lacks the offensive punch to score with a very balanced Buckeye attack.

Michigan @ Clemson:  This is a game the Tigers need to win if the ACC has any chance of pulling out the challenge.  I think they will, but this one could be really ugly.  Both teams are sloppy with the ball an inefficient offensively.

North Carolina @ Illinois:  Illinois is one of the quietest good teams in the country. They dropped to #20 after losing an intense game to Texas.  Look for the Illini to exploit Carolina's ballhandling and passing woes into easy buckets and an easy win.

WEDNESDAY:
Indiana @ Boston College:  This is a huge opportunity for the Hoosiers to take the next step in their rebuilding journey and validate their early unbeaten creampuff-aided record.  BC has played in more competitive games early, and that is an advantage, but I still like the Hoosiers to get an upset win on the road.

North Carolina State @ Wisconsin:  The Badgers just do not lose in the Kohl Center.  They won't tonight either.  Give me Bucky in a win over better-than-advertised NC State.

Purdue @ Virginia Tech:  VA Tech might be the second best team in the ACC (hence my 'Can Duke Run the Table' columns).  Purdue is taking some flack for losing to Richmond the other day, but Richmond is a legit Top 20 team.  To me, not as concerning a loss as it seemed on the surface.  Despite the loss of Hummel, Purdue remains Top 10-Top 15 talented with JuJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore.  I like the Boilermakers in the road, stiffling Malcoln Delaney and the Hokies.  This is probably the second best game of the series, I wouldn't miss this one.


Maryland @ Penn State:  This is why God created ESPN-U.  So you and I could watch games like this while 99.9% of the nation could care less.  Maryland is my sleeper pick in the ACC.  I watched them frustrate Pitt for 40 minutes.  Once they figure out who their primary ballhandler is going to be, the Terps could surprise some folks and make the tourney.  Penn State is awful, but enjoy Talor Battle for one more season.  The do-everything guard for the Nittany Lions is one of the most exciting players in the country.  That said, I'll take the Terps on the road.

Michigan State @ Duke:  This is the marquee matchup, and we'll devote a column to it on Wednesday.  I won't give away my pick, but I'm sure you can guess....

OVERALL:  I have the Big Ten winning 7-4 on my fight card. 

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New Year's Conference Resolutions: Big Ten

Here's the first of ten conference installments of some New Year's Resolutions and Prognostications. As always, your dissension is welcomed...

BIG TEN:

The Big Ten had all the makings of the best conference in the country heading into the season. Legit Final Four contenders? Purdue & Michigan State. National Player of the Year candidate? Evan Turner of Ohio State more than fit the bill. Tons of tourney caliber teams? Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State & Minnesota all were ranked preseason, with Wisconsin entering shortly after beating Duke early. Penn State was fresh off their NIT championship and Northwestern was entertaining dreams of their first ever NCAA tourney appearance. Heck, optimism was even high down in Bloomington with the rebuilding Hoosiers.

So what happened?

Michigan State got routed by North Carolina, Texas and lost to middling Florida. Ohio State lost Evan Turner to a broken back (amazing as it sounds, he will likely be back this season), Minnesota has struggled on the court and off, Michigan has been a disaster and Illinois has been disappointing. Penn State may not even be good enough to get back to the NIT to defend their crown and Indiana will need another year of rebuilding before being relevant.

In short, the Big Ten's shortfalls continue to glare compared to the bright lights of the Big East, ACC and Big 12 for yet another year.

Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:

The Good:
Purdue looks fantastic, and a legit contender to get to Indy. I can't see them any lower than a #2 or #3 seed come March, and I wouldn't bet against a #1 (the win over WVU in the hip pocket). They have good veteran leadership and much like Florida 2006-07, a fantastic understanding of their individuals roles within the team construct.

I'd never bet against Tom Izzo and Michigan State in March. They do it every year, and have more than enough talent to get back to yet another Final Four.

If Ohio State gets back a healthy Even Turner they can be a real sleeper. I thought they were a legit third contender to win the Big Ten before the injury, and are of course a completely different team without him. Unfortunately Turner might return a little too late to salvage a decent seed.

I like Wisconsin's chances getting back to the dance as well. Every year Wisconsin is supposed to be down. Every year Bo Ryan's Badgers defend on the court, defend their home court, and defend their NCAA consecutive appearance streak. It's going to happen again this year.

The Unknown:
Tubby has had a tumultuous off season with his Minnesota Gophers and a rough November. Consecutive losses to Portland, Texas A&M and Miami dropped them off the national radar and left them with only a quality win over Butler for the resume. They are 10-3 and healthy and poised to make a run. I think Tubby's Gophers get it going and finish a solid 5th.

I'm not sure what to make of Illinois. My gut feeling is they are on the outside looking in come March. They've lost to Bradley, a bad Georgia team and a terrible Utah club. Those are going to be tough losses to overcome without ten wins in conference. The opening win over Northwestern helps, but I think they come up short.

Speaking of Northwestern, the Wildcats made their first appearance in the Top 25...and promptly followed it up with a loss to the Illini. Sentiment has me pulling for the Wildcats. Logic tells me they come up just a bit short...again. Check out the upcoming schedule: @ Mighigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, @Ohio State, Illinois, @Minnesota, @Michigan State. Wow. Win even three of these and we'll talk tourney. Find me three games they will be favored in on that slate...

Penn State is a major disappointment to me. The Nittany Lions and Talor Battle just haven't conjured up the magic this year. Early losses to Tulane and NC Wilmington put a ton of pressure on them to go over .500 in conference. It ain't happenin'

Michigan remains the biggest enigma. They are easily tourney-talented. Then the lose their opener to Indiana. Not a way to statr if you have serious aspirations in March. They are 6-6 with a bad loss to Utah and questionable losses to Alabama and Indiana. That leaves a lot of work to do in Ann Arbor. And fast.

The BAD:
Indiana is at least worth watching this year. They play well at home and will likely pick up a handful of conference wins this year. The loss of Maurice Creek hurts, and it is tough to see this young Hoosier team winning many on the road. After all, surprising wins over Pitt and Michigan aside, this is a team that lost to Boston U, George Mason and Loyola (Md). No postseason this year, but the future is bright in Bloomington.

Um, not so much in Iowa. The Hawkeyes are terrible. They've lost to Texas-San Antonio, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Duquesne...and they are going to lose to every single team in the Big Ten at least once.

Final Score:
Purdue, Michigan State are Top 4 seeds. Ohio State gets Turner back in time to get in, Wisconsin and Minnesota earn bids.

Michigan and Illinois spend a rocky few weeks on each side of the bubble. I think the Wolverines get it together just in time to slip in as the 6th Big Ten team while Illinois joins Northwestern in NIT.

Penn State, Indiana and Iowa - make early March tee times.

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Big Chance for the Big Ten

It has been widely covered this week how the Big Ten has never beaten the ACC in the Challenge. I found that surprising, given the ACC's recent top-heaviness, but am not stunned. Regardless, this year seems to be the Big Ten's chance to break through.

Here is a guide to this week's games:

MONDAY: Penn State def. Virginia - Not surprising as Penn State is as strong as any 8th or 9th place team in any normal size (BEast excluded) conference in America. It's a good start for the Ten.

TUESDAY: A really good slate of games highlighted by Michigan State's trip to UNC at 9PM (ESPN HD). The undercard isn't bad either with Wake @ Purdue, Northwestern at NC State, Maryland @ Indiana, and Iowa @ Virginia Tech.

I am not sure exactly how the matchups are determined, but Maryland v. Indiana seems an odd mismatch, with IU being figured no higher than 9th (probably 10th or 11th) in the Big Ten. When your predicted finish is lower than the number of teams in the NAME OF YOUR LEAGUE it is not going to be a real banner season. Ditto for Iowa, the only team scraping the bottom with Indiana. Their draw of VA Tech seems a bit ambitious as well.

MANIAC'S PICKS: Purdue, Maryland, VA Tech, Northwestern in a surprise, and North Carolina continuing to haunt Izzo and the Spartans; this time with a nearly entirely new cast...

WEDNESDAY: More great action starts at 7PM with Illinois trying to stabilize a disappointing start with a win at Clemson. Other games in the early going feature Minnesota @ Miami, and Boston College @ Michigan. The late games are two really good ones when Duke tries to do what very few have recently; win at the Kohl Center against the Badgers, and Florida State visiting Evan Turner and the Ohio State Buckeyes.

MANIAC'S PICKS: Clemson, Miami (FL), Michigan, Duke and Ohio State.

FINAL TALLY: ACC gets 'em again, by a close 6-5 margin.

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Bad and Worse - Saturday's Disatrous Losses

You always hope to write about teams playing their way IN come March, but the more astute observation would be that at least three teams played themselves OUT of the tourney today, with a fat additional handful doing their damndest to do likewise. Here is a quick rundown of the worst and wors-erest (?) performances Saturday:

Maryland - Rest in peace Terps. All goodwill stashed away from last weekend's Carolina thriller was washed away by a loss to conference doormat Virginia. With the plethora of teams snuggling on the bubble, it is hard to imagine a 7-9 ACC team with losses to Morgan State and UVA get the nod.

Cincinnati - Is "deader" a word? The Cats were "dead" after the USF loss this week. TOday's home defeat to Seton Hall makes a home-game in the NIT questionable.

Kentucky - I was joking with Poppa Maniac that the UK-UF game looked like a "play-in" game all season; today was a "play-out" game. I still think Florida is not getting in - and that Auburn would be more deserving of a 4th SEC spot than the Gators (who I really liked a month ago, admittedly...). That said Kentucky went from "bubble" to "Seeking a miracle." The Maniac will put it on record that they won't get it...and instead of a miracle will soon be seeking a head basketball coach.

Not saying ANY of them would TAKE the job, but here is my short list of GREAT FITS:

1. Jay Wright - I was stunned they didn't take a run at him when they settled for Dizzy Gillespie. Wright looks the part, plays the style of hoops that will win him fans in Lexington and would be wise to get out of the hyper-competitive Big East where Villanova is an unlikely perennial Top 4 team.

2. Darrin Horn - I know, I know, I know. He is in year one at South Carolina and has likely led the Gamecocks to a bid (over Kentucky). That said, he is a young, energetic coach who played his prep ball in.... you guessed it, the Bluegrass.

3. Can there be a more ideal fit than Travis Ford?? The gutty, beloved point guard on the 1993 Final Four team has exceeded expectations and has Oklahoma State on the verge of an unlikely tourney bid. He will be an exceedingly hot coaching commodity, and I am not convinced Oklahoma State is a destination job. Suffice it to say, Kentucky would be for Ford.

Come to think of it, I'd lay an even-money wager Ford is coaching the Cats within 15 months.

Ok back to the point - those were my three homicidal coach-killing losses. Here are a few that aren't deadly, but sure as hell made things sticky.

1. Creighton - Getting pasted by 27 in the semis of your 1-bid conference tournament is NOT a real good way to lock up an at-large birth. The Maniac STILL likes the Jays chances, but Creighton better root like hell for Xavier, Butler, Gonzaga during their conference tourneys... and likewise would be wise to root against Ohio State, Maryland, Virginia Tech. Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and St. Mary's...

2. Minnesota -Most experts think the Gophers are still in; the Maniac thinks they better be real nervous and would behoove them to win at least one in the Big Ten tourney. Everyone says "conference affiliation doesn't matter to the selection committee" but I cry foul on that notion. It is going to be tough to get eight Big Ten teams dance cards. Minnesota gets in a crowded spot with Ohio State, Michigan and...

3. PENN STATE - Seriously, all they had to do was beat Iowa and they move to LOCK status. So of course, they lose in OT to the Hawkeyes. At 10-8 in the Big Ten, they are in decent shape, but by no means a LOCK. The first round of the Big Ten tourney is going to be really interesting next week as 5 teams (six actually, don't discount Northwestern) are scrambling for bids.

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Wednesday's Highlights

Oklahoma looks to secure a share of the Big 12 title, while Missouri looks to salvage some respect after the savage beating laid on them by Sherron Collins, Cole Alderich and the Jayhawks. For Mizzou a good showing keeps them on the 4-line on Selection Sunday; a loss puts them into a big jumbled mess with 20 other teams bouncing between the 4 & 7 slots

Maniac's Pick: Oklahoma and Blake Griffin handle their business tonight.

West Virginia is projected as a #6 in most major website brackets; a win tonight over 0-16 DePaul should be a gimme... however, as the Mountaineers wrap up with a visit from Louisville, they better grab the win tonight to ensure a winning Big East record (and NCAA tourney bid).

Maniac's Pick: WVU locks up their tourney spot tonight, and the Blue Demons move inches from being the BEast's first winless team at season's end.

Marquette travels to Pitt looking to avoid their third consecutive loss. For the record, don't blame their woes on the loss of Dominic James. This losing streak has been coming all season, as the Maniac warned you. Assuming Pitt holds their home court tonight, Marquette would have to win the finale Saturday against Syracuse to avoid free-falling into the NCAA tournament (and dropping out of the Top 4 seed lines.)

Maniac's Pick: Pitt by 9

Purdue is playing for seeding at this point. Michigan State wrapped up the regular season conference crown squeeking past Indiana last night in Assembly Hall. Northwestern is NIT-bound, but has been a tricky opponent all season long. The Wildcats have already beaten Florida State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Ohio State. It is still a crazy long shot, but an upset over Purdue and completing the season sweep over Ohio State Saturday leaves the door cracked for a miracle run in the Big Ten tourney and the FIRST EVER bid for Northwestern. EVER.

Maniac's Pick: Sorry Wildcats, a healthy Hummel and the Boilers handle their business at home, Purdue by 7.

GAME OF THE NIGHT:

Wisconsin at Minnesota is a virtual elimination game, but not for the team you would have thought it was four weeks ago. The Badgers have put their six-game losing streak behind them and appear to be pretty safely in the Big Dance. Tubby's Badgers have a valuable chip in the non-conference win over L'Ville, but really need a win tonight to feel secure. A loss tonight would drop them to 8-9 in Big Ten, and 4-8 in their last 12 games.

Maniac's Pick: Tubby rallies the troops and saves a slipping season with a big home win. Minnesota by 5.

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Stock Up, Stock Down - BIG TEN

This week did much to settle the murky bubble picture as several teams did much to shape their chances. Here is a quick rundown of where everyone stands as of Monday, March 2nd.

Big Ten:

Wisconsin - Things are looking good for Bucky after yesterday's home win over Michigan. I think Wisconsin is IN, solidly #4 in the Big Ten.

Ohio State - Still up in the air, but they close with Iowa and Northwestern. Do what they are supposed to do, and the Buckeyes should be safe. They have a bevy of wins over the Top 100 and Top 50 to fall back on.

Michigan - The did the Paula Abdul this week (no, not the "act like a crazy bitch on national tv" thing - the "one step forward, two steps back). Don't act like you don't remember MC Skat Kat.... Anyhow, their win over Purdue helped their cause immensly, but yesterday's loss to Wisconsin put them right back where they started. I still think Michigan gets the nod over Minnesota and Penn State at this juncture.

Minnesota - Where did things go wrong? Minnesota looked like a lock most of the season, but has hit a big time Big Ten rut. The good news Gopher fan(s)? You control your own destiny, finishing with Wisconsin and Michigan. Win both and it's a lock. Drop both and Tubby and crew will be kNITing.

Penn State - Other sites have them IN ahead of Michigan, I just don't see it. The Lions have had an impressive Big Ten run, and are plenty worthy of a bid, but when 34 resumes get laid on the table in two weeks PSU lacks the big wins to rise to the top of the pile. They finish the season with Illinois and Iowa. Better win 'em both and keep the momentum running into the conference tourney.

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The Rhode Less Traveled

Fox Sports and Rivals.com both have Temple as one of their "Last 4 Out" as of today. Lunardi finally downgraded the Owls to off the board. All three have Penn State and Oklahoma State and Dayton "IN."

However, there is a team in the A-10 not listed on anyone's radar that makes a case every bit as compelling as Temple, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Texas A&M and San Diego State, Minnesota and a few others..

Let me introduce you to the Rhode Island Rams. The Rams are currently 21-8, (10-4) and in second place in the underrated Atlantic-10. On the Rams resume are wins over Penn State, Northeastern, VCU, Temple and Dayton. Their losses are all nearly all quality ones; Duke, Xavier, Villanova, Providence, St. Joes, Temple, and Richmond (bad loss). They have won 9 of their last 10, and finish with three winable games to get them to 24-8.

More acclaim should be trapping the Rams...

Rhode Island raises perhaps the most interesting question for committee members; is it all wins, losses and RPI's or does HOW you played the game matter?

The Rams lost early at Cameron Indoor to the Top 10 Dukies 82-79. They had a shot at the buzzer to force overtime that didn't go in. Suffice it to say, not many non-conference foes come as close to leaving Cameron with a win as the Rams did. Two weeks later they suffered their only loss by more than six points, falling by 14 to Villanova. They lost at Providence by 1, at Oklahoma State by 4, at St. Joes by 6, to Xavier by a pair... every game they have played they were in right to the wire.

With the exception of Richmond and St. Joes, every loss was a well-played loss to a tourney-caliber ballclub.

Contrast that with some of the conventional bubble-mates low points:

Penn State, while playing in an admittedly more competitive Big Ten has only a non conference win over Georgia Tech to "brag" about. It is offset by losses to Temple and the aforementioned Rams.

Minnesota has the "signature win" over Louisville, but no other non-conference Top 100 wins. Their conference record is a pedestrian .500. They are 5-7 over their last 12 contests.

Cincinnati is now 8-7 in the mighty Big East, so it is hard to see them not dancing. They got their "signature win" last night over West Virginia (who is really close to back on the bubble at 8-7 in the BEast, but should be fine if they don't stumble to South Florida or DePaul).

Cincy's high points are the West Virginia win and solid wins over UAB and a 2-point win over UNLV. However an unbalanced schedule has aided their +.500 surge in conference. Their conference wins, aside from last night are: DePaul, Notre Dame, St John's (twice), Georgetown (twice) and Rutgers. Not exactly a murder's row.

However, it is not the wins, but rather the WAY they lost that should trouble the committee.

34 points pasting by Marquette, a pair of losses to bubble-mate Providence (by 8, and 9), Florida State by 11, Xavier at home by 10, Memphis by 15, Pitt by 16 and by 21 to Villanova.

So is it "quality losses" or the quality of the loss that matters? If you judge by the latter, it is hard to put the Bearcats ahead of the Rams.

Oklahoma State beat Rhode Island at home by 4 and boast a win over Siena. Their non-conference losses are respectable; Gonzaga by 12, Michigan State by 15 and Washington by 18. All three were on the road; something a mid-major knows all about. Notice how few of Rhode Islands win are at home? Exactly - none of the big boys are going there anytime soon. The Cowboys are 7-6 in the top-heavy Big 12, with their wins coming over Baylor, Texas Tech (twice), Texas A&M, Iowa State, Nebraska and Colorado. They will likely get a chance to determine their own fate as they finish the regular season against Texas, Kansas State and Oklahoma.

Speaking of Kansas State, their non-conference losses were an interesting lot, Kentucky (by 2), Iowa (2) and Oregon (5). It is possible all three are non-tourney invite losses. They have no non-conference wins over Top 100 teams. Their conference slate is similar to OK State - fatten up on the bottom and get full; were it not for the Missouri and Texas wins it is unlikely the Wildcats are even in the discussion.

For the record - the A-10 is not as strong a conference as the Big 12, you'll get no argument here. But using the eyeball test, are Colorado, Iowa State, Nebraska and Texas Tech really any better than Temple, St. Joes, Rhode Island, Duquesne, and the middle of the A-10??

Will the Rams be Dancing in three weeks? Probably no; not unless they win the A-10 Tourney. Should they be? It really depends on how the chips fall. But they absolutely deserve to be in the discussion.

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Sparty's House

Every time I want to put the Gophers in the elite company of the Big Ten's finest, reality slaps them back down. Michigan State has been shaky of late at home, losing to two conference perreneal doormats, but showed no ill-effects tonight, dismantling visiting Minnesota 76-47. The game was 46-12 at halftime, and the Spartans "eased up" in the last ten minutes.

It is just one of those seasons folks, everything you think you know is wrong. Once you know that, the season makes sense. (notice the Maniac filed no picks the past few days...)

Miami has been one of the most underperforming teams in the nation this year. Tonight they handed Wake Forest their ass by nearly 30. Clemson has looked severly overwhelmed in their two dances with ACC big boys. As I write they lead Duke by 20 in the second half.

And then there is Notre Dame. They have lost their past few "must-wins" making tonight's trip to Cincinnati a true "must-win." After the Bearcats beat them easily tonight, the Big East tournament is looking like the Irish's next true "must win."

Great wins tonight: Cincinnati, Villanova, Michigan State, Utah, Miami and Clemson.

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Big Game Rundown - Wednesday Feb 4th

We are entering the final month of the regular season, and things are starting to take shape in the Big 6 conferences. Several teams have disappointed, but no one the experts were banking on to dance has eliminated themselves from the possibility (Notre Dame and Arizona need to win this week though...).

More than misfires, we have had a nice crop of pleasant surprises. Whether teams like Penn State, Providence and Northwestern can finish strong remains to be seen, but I imagine their fan bases can not be too disappointed with the seasons they are turning in.

Here are the biggest games that impact the bubble and seeding taking place Wednesday.

West Virginia heads to the Carrier Dome in a huge Big East battle. The Mountaineers are 4-4, while the 'Cuse is 5-4 in conference play. Neither one can feel too comfortable in their Top 8 position with Notre Dame and Georgetown lurking just a game behind. The winner tonight moves closer to locking up a dance card, the loser slides onto the bubble.

Notre Dame visits the Bearcats in the Queen City in an even more precarious game for both squads. The loser of this game (particularly if it is UC) is all but eliminated from tourney thoughts. Notre Dame is 3-6 in conference and 12-8 overall. A loss at Cincinnati would leave them with very little room for error. It is possible for a Big East team to slide into the tourney at 8-10 in conference. However, after UC, Notre Dame still has trips to UConn, West Virginia and Providence, as well as home games with Lousiville and Villanova. Throw in a non-conference trip to UCLA and it is getting late pretty early for the Irish.

Harangody needs some help to get the Irish dancing...

Wake Forest looks to rebound from their surprising loss at Georgia Tech with a trip to Miami. The Canes were ranked the first month of the season but are on the wrong side of the bubble as of today. A win over the Deac's could get them back on track to make a late season-saving push.

Utah visits TCU in a good Mountain West battle. Several polls have the Utes as one of the last teams IN the tourney. TCU has a smaller reputation but a similar profile and trails the Utes (and everyone else) by only one game at 4-3. Big game to see if the teams can start to seperate a little in the MWC.

Ok Providence, are you for real? If so, bring your A game when Villanova comes calling tomorrow night. Tournament teams defend their home court. Another blowout loss to one of the Big East Big Boys will crush their image (and really help Georgetown and Notre Dame move back into spots #8 & #9 respectively).

Tennessee once again looks like the best team in the SEC and the most legitimate threat to well-represent the conference in March. Arkansas has done dreadfully in conference play but seems to bring its best for the best teams. They better tomorrow night, as their spot on the "bubble list" is more just a shot in the dark since they own two colossal non-conference wins. All other signs point to NIT or worse...

Minnesota at Michigan State has nothing to do with making the tourney, rather it has national ranking and Big Ten champion implications. Michigan State has been surprisingly vulnerable at home, losing to both Penn State and Northwestern. With the Purdue loss tonight, a Gopher win puts them as part of the big log jam at the top.

And for your viewing pleasure, tune in at 9pm (with the TV muted) for the Clemson v Duke game. Clemson is legitmatly deserving of their #10 ranking at 18-2 with several quality wins. However, when I say "Clemson" what is the first thing you think of? Exactly. Hammered by Wake, Humiliated (intentially improperly capitalized) by Carolina.

It is hard to imagine the committee has different first impressions either. Clemson can do a lot to cement their reputation in either direction tomorrow night.

Can Clemson earn some respect against the Dookies?

The most underrated game of the night from a national perspective in the Battle for LA tomorrow night. UCLA and USC might be the two most talented teams in the Pac 10. SC fell off the radar early with a few losses, but is in good shape getting to the tourney. This game is about more than seeding and standings.

Two Big Big 12 games as well; Oklahoma hosts a reeling Texas A&M squad, while Missouri looks to move from "interesting tourney contender" to "lock" by knocking off the Longhorns in Austin. Texas seems to continue to be forgiven by the pollsters, but reall can't afford too many more "bad" lossess if they have legitimate hopes of earning a Top 4 seed in March.

Great slate of games, for complete BUBBLE IMPACT - visit our sister site (in progress) at TheThirtyFour.com

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Many Roads...

Arizona put up 104 point in their dire straits win of Washington. Minnesota got a huge Big 10 win holding Illinois to 36 points. The difference? 68 points.

The result? One team keeps their season alive, the other is getting close to locking up their first tourney bid in several years.

- I am sure I am not the only one TiVoing the Zags/Gaels game tonight. Should be a great one. I'll take Gonzaga flexing their WCC muscle tonight, but keep an eye on Patty Mills. Had a chance to see him live in December; heckuva ballplayer.

Show-Me Games of the Week

These games will give us some separation at the top and upper-echelon of some tough conferences.

Tuesday:

Ohio St @ Illinois - Both teams enter in the 20-30 range in most polls and 3-2 in Big Ten play. I think both teams will Dance, but this game could loom large when their resumes go side-by-side.

Wednesday:

Villanova @ UConn - Nova is 2-2 in conference with a trip to UConn looming. Villanova sits on the precarious spot of being the "ninth" team in the nation's deepest and biggest conference. No conference has ever gotten nine bids in March. I wouldn't want to be the one hoping that UNLV or Crieghton or George Mason haven't captured the committee's wandering Cinderella eyes...

Clemson @ UNC -Fifty three times... wow. I am sure you have heard/read the stat many times by now. Clemson brings one of their better teams into Chapel Hill... and still leaves with number fifty four.

Arizona St. @ Arizona - Mayday! Mayday! The Cats are in real trouble. At 2-4 in Pac-10 play and 11-7 overall, it is going to take somelike a win over in-state rival ASU to revitalize a moribund season and keep the nation's longest active NCAA Tourney appearance streak alive.


Thursday:

Minnesota @ Purdue - The conference's best surprise meets the conference's biggest dissapointment. Funny, both have 2 conference losses. The winner take a big step forward in the race to chase Michigan State for the conference crown.

Saturday:

Memphis @ Tennessee - This year lacks the zip of last year's #1 vs #2 Holy War, but still packs some importance. Memphis has one last chance to pick up a resume builder before fattening up on C-USA fluff. Tennessee gets a chance to pick up a much needed non-conference win for the much-maligned, but perhaps just late blooming, SEC.

UCLA @ Washington - The Huskies might be the biggest sleeper in the country, with NBA-quality big man John Brockton and a 4-1 conference record. The winner moves into first place in the Pac-10.

Xavier @ LSU - same drill as the above Memphis v. Tennessee analysis. LSU needs the win a little more desperatly, as their resume is blank and their early SEC play hasn't been good. Xavier can ill-afford another slip-up if they have aspirations of holding a Top 4 seed in March.

Gophers Big - Conference Stack Up Report

No one wins in the Kohl Center except the Badgers. Except for tonight.

Tubby's Gophers snatched a huge OT win from Wisconsin in a true validation game for Minnesota. The road doesn't get any easier, as they get a visit from Purdue (also dramtatic victors tonight) on Saturday, but at 3-1 in conference and 15-1 overall, the Gophers lookd primed to end their tourney drought (and possibly play into week two).

Most fellow hoops aficionados disagree with me, but I still think top to bottom, the Big Ten in on par with any conference in the nation, except perhaps the ACC. Yes, the Big East is better at the top, but their bottom seven (six if you give Cincinnati or Providence a pass) are terrible.

Here is how I see the Big Ten right now from a national perspective (meaning Big Dance):

LOCKS: Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois
SHOULD: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan,
NOT IMPOSSIBLE: Penn State
NIT LIKELY: Iowa, Northwestern
NO WAY: Indiana

Do the same with other conferences, and tell me how it shakes out? Big East? Six locks, three likely with one possibly getting shafted. Two possible NIT'ers. Five no way in hells. Yes, the power is there up top, but they have 16 freaking teams!

The only conference on par is the ACC (My vote for best in America)

LOCKS: Duke, Wake, UNC, Clemson
SHOULD: Miami, Florida State, Maryland,
NIT'ers: NC State, Va Tech, Boston College (ANY of these three has postential to jump up)
NOPE: Georgia Tech, Virginia

Grab the bottom 25% of each league. Who would you rather play? Boston College, Georgia Tech and Virginia... OR, South Florida, DePaul, St. Johns, Rutgers. Easy choice, right? How about Northwestern, Iowa and Indiana? IU sucks, but NW or Iowa would be favored by 4-8 over each of the previous four listed.

It is going to be a great finish to the year, and best of all, we will get to find out -
ON THE COURT!

Coming Up Golden: Tubby's Gophers Get Big Win Over Buckeyes

Tubby knew today was a big one. In a conference as deep and good as the Big Ten you don't want to start 0-2, with two losses on your home court. Today's solid defeat of Ohio State moves the Gophers to 13-1 (1-1) and drops Ohio State to a disappointing 0-2 conference start after entering the week unblemished, including wins over Butler and Notre Dame.

Up Next:
The Gophers will be favored in their next two games, going to Iowa and hosting a better-than advertised Penn State team who gave Wisconsin as much as they could handle today.

Ohio State looks to stop their two game skid in difficult fashion with a trip looming Tuesday to East Lansing. Ouch. At least their next two are Houston Baptist (not making that up, they actually schedule that game) and hosting the overmatched Hoosiers who played one of the better games of the season fighting to a valiant five point loss at Iowa.

Saturday's Best Games - Jan 3rd.

In between bowl fever and the start of the NFL playoffs, it is easy for college hoops to get lost in the sportsfan's shuffle. However, Saturday is chock full of games worth tuning in for. Here is a rundown on Saturday's finest.

FIVE STARS:

12pm Pitt @ Georgetown - Can Georgetown take down the top two teams in the conference (and two of the top three in the nation) in the same week? They'll be on their home floor, and it is obvious Greg Monroe will not be afraid of Pitt's interior defenders, seeing how he didn't bat an eye at Hasheem Thabeet.

8pm Wake Forest @ BYU - Must be "east coast bias." I can't think of any other reason why the Lee Cummard and the Cougs aren't ranked (ditto for UNLV), but these two teams enter the game a combined 23-1. The winner puts a huge feather in their cap come Selection Sunday.

8pm Creighton @ Illinois State - I might be becoming a bit of an MVC honk, but I honestly think this is the 2nd best game of the day. Creighton (12-2) has been the big kid on the block for years while Illinois State (13-0) has been the low bird on the totem pole. We will find out tomorrow night how much (if any) things have changed.

FOUR STARS:

12pm Ohio State @ Minnesota - Ohio St skidded past Iowa coming off their first loss throttling by WVA. Minnesota came into Big Ten play unbleminshed...then got their doors blown off by Michigan State. Tubby's Gophers don't want an 0-2 start to blemish all the positives of 2008.

2pm Tennessee @ Kansas - Two good teams square off in one of the nation's toughest places to win. Kansas is not ranked, but a win a the Phog never hurts the resume.

THREE STARS:

2pm Penn State @ Wisconsin - Don't look now, but Bo Ryan's Badgers appear to be a force once again in the Big Ten after an opening dismantling of Michigan (who beat UCLA and Duke). Penn State is off to a 12-2 start, but a win in Madison might be asking a bit much.

4pm NC State @ Florida - The Gators haven't made the strides that many expected so far in 2008-09. A home loss to the Pack would be another tough obstacle to overcome heading into a balanced, if not great, SEC.

4pm Wyoming @ Utah - The Ute's a fresh off a big win over Gonzaga...but I suppose a lot of teams can boast that this year. Meanwhile Wyoming (11-3) needs as many wins as they can get to make up for a less-than-stellar non conference schedule. The MWC is really deep and good this year. It will be interesting to see if Wyoming is one of the teams that can make noise.

TWO STARS:

2pm Xavier @ Virginia - The Muskies look to stop a 2-game skid in Charlottesville. The Cavs would love a big win before entering a ACC that appears to be a cut above their 2009 talent level.

4pm East Carolina @ Clemson - I had ECU on the Maniac Radar earlier this season. Then they lost by 41 to Wake. Expect Clemson to cruise to 14-0, though the Pirates do have the talent to compete for a 2nd to 4th finish in C-USA.

4pm Indiana @ Iowa - Let the carnage begin. The Hoosiers travel to Iowa to deliver the "bye week" in person. The Hoosiers enter off a home loss to Lipscomb (google it.) and are clearly Number Eleven in the Big Ten.


UPSET ALERT:

These three teams need to be on the watch for upset-minded foes who just might be capable of shooting their way to a big upset win.

* West Virgina @ Seton Hall
* Butler @ Valparaiso
* Wake Forest @ BYU

Best Foot Forward - Impessive Conference Debuts

The new year marks the advent of conference play, and here is where some of the separation between the contenders and pretenders begins. Several teams served notice the are here to play in 2009.

Impressive Debuts:

Illinois - A win on the road at preseason conference favorite Purdue is a nice way to open Big 10 play. The Illini are two points away (@Clemson) from being undefeated. It looks like Bruce Webber has his team poised to return to the tourney.

Georgetown - With the stumbles of Louisville and Notre Dame and the win at UConn, it is hard to say Georgetown isn't the top team in the nation's best conference at this point.

Illinois St. - They entered last night's game undefeated, yet most still pegged Creighton, Drake or Evansville as the team to beat in the MVC. The Redbirds 80-50 thumping of Evansville just added a fourth name to the discussion.

Arkansas - Yes, they had to hold on for dear life, but the Hogs took it too Oklahoma and Blake Griffin Tuesday night. As much as I have ripped the SEC, it is not unreasonable to think that both they and LSU could make five teams dancing for the conference come March.

Dissapointments:

Lousiville - Another tough loss, this one at home to UNLV. The loss accentuated one of the Cards fatal flaws; with 12 seconds to go, they have no clue who is supposed to have the ball. Their lack of a point guard and offensive creativity could make for a very underwhelming year in the Commenwealth.

Gonzaga - The UConn loss was probably the best game played this season in college basketball. The Arizona loss was not great, but excusable. The Portland State loss was a classic "hangover game." So, please give me some ratioanle for last night's Utah loss? If they weren't "Gonzaga", at 8-4 in a mid-major league, would you think this team is a lock to dance? Most certainly not.

The Zags have left themselves some surprising work to do in conference play. With Portland, San Diego and St. Mary's, it may not be as automatic as most people think.

Minnesota - Don't get me wrong, the Gophers and Tubby Smith have a lot to be happy about. However, a home drubbing in the conference opener by the Spartans indicate things haven't changed quite as much as Minnesota might have hoped.

St. Joe's - The Hawks entered the season with aspirations of returning to the tourney. After consecutive losses to Siena and Drexel dropped them to 5-7, NIT aspirations seem lofty.