I swear we were writing this column well before Colin Cowherd started doing it... seriously! I promise...
Anyhow - thanks to the ubiquity of the column, I'll spare the explanation and dive right in.
Duke - BUY
I've written since the fourth week of November, Duke can seriously run the table. I know, I know, but Maryland almost beat them in Durham last night. First, no, they didn't "almost beat them." They played them close for about 38 minutes, which is impressive and not many teams will do, but at no point was Duke a possession away from being beaten. Even when the score was close, one never got the feeling the Devils were in precarious territory.
The ACC is down, they've already mowed through an excellent non-conference schedule that featured at least seven NCAA Tourney teams (unless the bizarre K-State slide gets out of of control). With or without Kyrie Irving, this is the best team in the country. I've gone on record as saying Jared Sullinger is my National POY - but if the voting was today, Nolan Smith is second.
It's hard to "buy" when a team is 16-0 and ranked #1 in the country, but I don't care. Duke is deep, poised, impossible to press and athletic on the interior for the first time in a long time. They have no real discernable weakness other than perhaps the possibility of become a tad too jump shot reliant.
Notre Dame - SELL
I wrote this before the blitzing they took from Marquette tonight, so it seems a bit more obvious now. My point was simply, ignore polls. The Irish are good but nowhere close to the eighth best team in the country. By March, I see them slotting in close to where they did last year; around a #6 seed, and finishing in the top half, but not top quarter, of the Big East. They've been a great story, but objectively are not as good as Syracuse, Villanova or Pitt. Despite Georgetown's struggles I'd put the Hoyas ahead of them talent-wise as well - and in the same bubble with Marquette and St. John's (though ahead of both).
St John's - BUY
Speaking of the Johnnies, they aren't ranked, mainly because of two putrid early losses to Fordham and St. Bonnie. Since then, they have raced out to a 3-1 start in Big East play and can make a viable case for being the fifth or sixth best team in that league. I like St. John's to finish above .500 in conference and make a surprising return to the tourney in Coach Lavin's first year. Plus, isn't it a hoot seeing Gene Keady and the comb-over on the bench as Lav's reverse-role assistant?!?
San Diego State - HOLD
Look, the Aztecs are good. They are really good. Before the season ever tipped I tabbed them as the best team out West, and still believe that. However, I'm struggling to see them go much higher than #5 (where they sit this week). The Mountain West is good. Far more deserving of the Pac-10, and frankly every bit as good overall as the ACC, minus Duke.
Let's see how they handle BYU and UNLV coming up. Tear through them, and we'll talk. Until then, the sting of New Mexico's dismal tourney showing last season still hovers in my mind a bit...
Texas - BUY
The Longhorns are my sleeper Final Four team. Yes, they will suffer some losses in the brutal Big 12, but this team is starting to gel, has nice blend of youthful talent, experience and a legit All-American in Jordan Hamilton. Rick Barnes may care more about getting players to the NBA than winning, but this year they'll show the two ideals are not mutually exclusive.
Five more tomorrow when we examine Purdue, Missouri, Syracuse, Southern Miss and Washington.
Showing posts with label Texas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Texas. Show all posts
Texas Freshman Hitting Stride
Jared Sullinger gets the headlines. Kyrie Irving and his toe dominate the conversation. The trio of Terrance Jones, Brandin Knight and Doron Lamb have fans in Lexington talking Final Four. Somewhere amidst all the freshman chaos Texas's duo of Corey Joseph and Tristan Thompson usually get overlooked.
A notice to the Big Twelve; ignore the Longhorns at your own peril.
No team in the country disapointed more last season than the Texas Longhorns. Ranked #1 in the country just after Christmas, Rick Barnes's club impolded down the stretch, scraping to even make the tournament before bowing out ungracefully in a first round stinker to Wake Forest. Perhaps last season's meltdown was the perfect primer to a successful 2010-2011.
Expectations were significantly lower this year in Austin, a scenario that suited Rick Barnes just fine. With expectations and the pressure dialed well down this season the Longhorns are begininng to blossom into a team to be reckoned with come March.
Granted, Texas suffered the rather inexplicable blowout loss to USC several weeks ago, but every team gets a mulligan over the course of the season. Removing that blemish from the record and you are left with one of the more impressive pre-conference performances in the country. It began with an impressive victory over Illinois in one of the season's best played contests to date. The following night, the true definition of "quality loss" as they fell on a last second bucket to Pitt in front of an electrified Madison Square Garden.
This past week the Longhorns really hit their stride, posting back-to-back road wins at North Carolina and Michigan State. Adding Illinois and looking ahead to a Jan 8th matchup with UConn, Texas will have a real opportunity to build the kind of profile that merits a Top 4 seed come March.
A big reason for Texas's success has been the play of Thompson and Joseph. Averaging just over 11 points each doesn't explode off the page, but their contributions in all facets of the game have been the perfect compliment to the emergence of Jordan Hamilton as a legit National POY candidate.
The Big 12 is loaded this year. Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor and Missouri have shown themselves to all legitimate Final Four contenders. After this week's performances it's time to add Texas to that list.
A notice to the Big Twelve; ignore the Longhorns at your own peril.
No team in the country disapointed more last season than the Texas Longhorns. Ranked #1 in the country just after Christmas, Rick Barnes's club impolded down the stretch, scraping to even make the tournament before bowing out ungracefully in a first round stinker to Wake Forest. Perhaps last season's meltdown was the perfect primer to a successful 2010-2011.
Expectations were significantly lower this year in Austin, a scenario that suited Rick Barnes just fine. With expectations and the pressure dialed well down this season the Longhorns are begininng to blossom into a team to be reckoned with come March.
Granted, Texas suffered the rather inexplicable blowout loss to USC several weeks ago, but every team gets a mulligan over the course of the season. Removing that blemish from the record and you are left with one of the more impressive pre-conference performances in the country. It began with an impressive victory over Illinois in one of the season's best played contests to date. The following night, the true definition of "quality loss" as they fell on a last second bucket to Pitt in front of an electrified Madison Square Garden.
This past week the Longhorns really hit their stride, posting back-to-back road wins at North Carolina and Michigan State. Adding Illinois and looking ahead to a Jan 8th matchup with UConn, Texas will have a real opportunity to build the kind of profile that merits a Top 4 seed come March.
A big reason for Texas's success has been the play of Thompson and Joseph. Averaging just over 11 points each doesn't explode off the page, but their contributions in all facets of the game have been the perfect compliment to the emergence of Jordan Hamilton as a legit National POY candidate.
The Big 12 is loaded this year. Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor and Missouri have shown themselves to all legitimate Final Four contenders. After this week's performances it's time to add Texas to that list.
Quick Picks - Wednesday Dec 22nd
After nearly two weeks devoid of quality college hoops, today finally offers a bevy of quality games to get one last look at a lot of teams before the enter conference play. If you are a night-owl, you are doubly in luck, with quality games airing at 11pm and 1AM EST tonight.
Harvard @ UConn -13: The Huskies are a surprise at #4 in the country and undefeated. It is possible they sleepwalk through this game, it has certainly been the Huskies mantra over past seasons to play to the level of their competition. However, I think the men will be focused on not wanting to cede all the holiday attention to their record-breaking lady counterparts. Plus, Jeremy Lin is gone and this Harvard team just isn't very good. Gimme the Huskies big.
UCF -3.5 @ UMass: If anyone is ripe for a let-down game it is the Knights. After winning two of the biggest games in school history, defeating instate rivals Florida and Miami en route to their first ever appearance in the national rankings (#24 AP) the Knights look to keep their perfection alive visiting a reeling UMass squad. UMass started the year 7-0 before dropping their last three contests to Boston College, Maine and a 25-point blowout to struggling Seton Hall.
This line reflects a lot of the residual name recognition from the Marcus Camby-era Minutemen as well as the relative anonymity of the Knights basketball. I can understand the potential for a letdown, but objectivly the Knights are 10-12 points better on a neutral floor. I think they bring their A-game, win easily tonight, and enter C-USA play as one of the nation's only undefeated teams.
Texas @ Michigan State -6.5: Texas is one of my sleeper teams to watch in March. They are long and athletic and have dynamite freshman talent in Corey Joseph. Michigan State just seems to be a little off in the early part of the season. Knowing Tom Izzo, all those ills will be long forgotten by March, but here in December six and a half feels like way to many to lay in a game they could very well lose straight up. Gimme the Longhorns and the points.
Dayton @ Seton Hall -7.5: Is this line a typo?? I looked at four different sites to make sure I wasn't reading it wrong. It's one of those games that made me wish I wagered for real instead of simply prognosticating for pride and column width... Gimme the Flyers straight up, but the 7.5 makes it even cushier. This is my first lock of the year.
Drexel @ Syracuse -13.5: Don't sleep on the Dragons. They've already knocked off Louisville in their beatiful and cavernous new YUM Center. They won't be intimidated by the Carrier Dome. Drexel is a legit tourney team and will compete with VCU, Old Dominion and George Mason in the better-than-advertised Colonial League. I think the 'Cuse win at home, but I'll take the 13.5 going Drexel's way.
For the final selections, we'll tackle the wonderful trio of games tipping off at 11PM EST. For those of us who start their Christmas Break tomorrow, it's a good night to wrap some presents and watch some Christmas Hoops!
Butler -8 @ Utah, Kansas -10 @ Cal, Xavier +5 @ Gonzaga
Maniac's Record to Date: 12-8-1
Harvard @ UConn -13: The Huskies are a surprise at #4 in the country and undefeated. It is possible they sleepwalk through this game, it has certainly been the Huskies mantra over past seasons to play to the level of their competition. However, I think the men will be focused on not wanting to cede all the holiday attention to their record-breaking lady counterparts. Plus, Jeremy Lin is gone and this Harvard team just isn't very good. Gimme the Huskies big.
UCF -3.5 @ UMass: If anyone is ripe for a let-down game it is the Knights. After winning two of the biggest games in school history, defeating instate rivals Florida and Miami en route to their first ever appearance in the national rankings (#24 AP) the Knights look to keep their perfection alive visiting a reeling UMass squad. UMass started the year 7-0 before dropping their last three contests to Boston College, Maine and a 25-point blowout to struggling Seton Hall.
This line reflects a lot of the residual name recognition from the Marcus Camby-era Minutemen as well as the relative anonymity of the Knights basketball. I can understand the potential for a letdown, but objectivly the Knights are 10-12 points better on a neutral floor. I think they bring their A-game, win easily tonight, and enter C-USA play as one of the nation's only undefeated teams.
Texas @ Michigan State -6.5: Texas is one of my sleeper teams to watch in March. They are long and athletic and have dynamite freshman talent in Corey Joseph. Michigan State just seems to be a little off in the early part of the season. Knowing Tom Izzo, all those ills will be long forgotten by March, but here in December six and a half feels like way to many to lay in a game they could very well lose straight up. Gimme the Longhorns and the points.
Dayton @ Seton Hall -7.5: Is this line a typo?? I looked at four different sites to make sure I wasn't reading it wrong. It's one of those games that made me wish I wagered for real instead of simply prognosticating for pride and column width... Gimme the Flyers straight up, but the 7.5 makes it even cushier. This is my first lock of the year.
Drexel @ Syracuse -13.5: Don't sleep on the Dragons. They've already knocked off Louisville in their beatiful and cavernous new YUM Center. They won't be intimidated by the Carrier Dome. Drexel is a legit tourney team and will compete with VCU, Old Dominion and George Mason in the better-than-advertised Colonial League. I think the 'Cuse win at home, but I'll take the 13.5 going Drexel's way.
For the final selections, we'll tackle the wonderful trio of games tipping off at 11PM EST. For those of us who start their Christmas Break tomorrow, it's a good night to wrap some presents and watch some Christmas Hoops!
Butler -8 @ Utah, Kansas -10 @ Cal, Xavier +5 @ Gonzaga
Maniac's Record to Date: 12-8-1
2K Sports Classic Matchup Preview
It doesn't get much better than back-to-back non-conference matchups in Madison Square Garden.
In the 7PM game, Maryland tackles BEast favorite Pitt. Maryland found themselves a lead guard in Pe'Shon Howard in their opener against Charleston. Howard got a lot of attention for hitting the game winning basket, however he really won them the game far before that, with his defensive effort in the the final five minutes on Andrew Goudelock who was running rampant on the Terps for 35 minutes.
Howard will have his hands full tonight with veteran Brad Wannamaker and the Pitt Panthers. Pitt is big and tough, and Ashton Gibbs is a legitimate BEast P.O.Y. candidate. Maryland has some athletes, but lacks the shooting, size and ballhandling to hang with the Panthers. Give me Pitt is a double-digit win.
The nightcap is an intriguing one, featuring two teams who late season sputters torpedoed promising season in 2009-2010. Texas was ranked #1 in the country as the calendar turned to 2010. Halfway through Big Ten play, Demitri McCamey looked like a challenger to Evan Turner for Big Ten POY candidate, and the Illini were in a five-way tie for first place.
By the end of the season Texas bowed out in the first round of the tourney as a #9 seed, and the Illini headed for the NIT.
Both have much higher expectations for rebounding this season. Texas lost some size and scoring, but might actually be better for it. Rick Barnes squad struggled with shot selection all season long, perhaps with too many self-proclaimed All-Stars taking wild shots. They also had tremendous issues at the point, both with injuries and erratic play. Illinois returns McCamey and enters the season ranked in the Top 25. Both teams fancy themselves as deep participants in March. Tonight will be an interesting barometer of how far along they really are.
I like Texas's athleticism and defensive pressure to stiffle an already suspect Illini offense. If Texas can avoid their oft brutal foul shooting, I like the Horns in a good early season matchup.
Maniac's Picks: Pitt -7.5, Texas +3.5
2010-2011 Record: 4-4
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In the 7PM game, Maryland tackles BEast favorite Pitt. Maryland found themselves a lead guard in Pe'Shon Howard in their opener against Charleston. Howard got a lot of attention for hitting the game winning basket, however he really won them the game far before that, with his defensive effort in the the final five minutes on Andrew Goudelock who was running rampant on the Terps for 35 minutes.
Howard will have his hands full tonight with veteran Brad Wannamaker and the Pitt Panthers. Pitt is big and tough, and Ashton Gibbs is a legitimate BEast P.O.Y. candidate. Maryland has some athletes, but lacks the shooting, size and ballhandling to hang with the Panthers. Give me Pitt is a double-digit win.
The nightcap is an intriguing one, featuring two teams who late season sputters torpedoed promising season in 2009-2010. Texas was ranked #1 in the country as the calendar turned to 2010. Halfway through Big Ten play, Demitri McCamey looked like a challenger to Evan Turner for Big Ten POY candidate, and the Illini were in a five-way tie for first place.
By the end of the season Texas bowed out in the first round of the tourney as a #9 seed, and the Illini headed for the NIT.
Both have much higher expectations for rebounding this season. Texas lost some size and scoring, but might actually be better for it. Rick Barnes squad struggled with shot selection all season long, perhaps with too many self-proclaimed All-Stars taking wild shots. They also had tremendous issues at the point, both with injuries and erratic play. Illinois returns McCamey and enters the season ranked in the Top 25. Both teams fancy themselves as deep participants in March. Tonight will be an interesting barometer of how far along they really are.
I like Texas's athleticism and defensive pressure to stiffle an already suspect Illini offense. If Texas can avoid their oft brutal foul shooting, I like the Horns in a good early season matchup.
Maniac's Picks: Pitt -7.5, Texas +3.5
2010-2011 Record: 4-4
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Moving and Shaking
Today is going to be filled with movers and shakers. Movers; as into prime tourney position; and Shakers, teams whose footing is going to be shaky with a loss to say the least.
Here is a quick rundown of the biggest games of a packed Saturday.
Louisville @ West Virginia: The Cards are 13-7, and a loss today would drop them to 13-8. With nary a great win on their resume and looming blowout losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina, anything shy of a huge step-up game today leaves them in dire straights. For the Mountaineers, a number one seed isn't out of the question, but they can't drop any more home games. Especially to teams like the 'Ville.
Marquette @ Connecticut: The Warriors are the textbook definition of a tough-luck ballclub, having lost three games in conference to Top 25 team in the final seconds. Since the NCAA committee rarely looks at margin of loss, the biggest stat that matters right now is 12-8. Connecticut is only one game better at 13-7, but has better non-conference wins (and losses) and a little more name cache (not that it is supposed to matter). Interesting fact, Marquette is 0-5 on the road this season. If that streak runs to six, it's time to kick some dirt on their grave. However, should they win, the middle of the BEast gets intersting with both teams in a six or seven team scrum for likely two, possibly three bids. It's a BIG game in Storrs (but let's hope the Huskie fans don't storm the court if they win...seriously...stay off the floor.)
Duke @ Georgetown: Wow! How often do we get an Elite Eight level non-conference game this late in the year? Not very often, so enjoy it. The winner puts a HUGE chip in their pile and stays on track for a #1 or #2 seed. Duke loses less with a loss since its a true road game. If the Hoyas lose, it has them trending towards a 4/5 seed. Neither team is crippled with a loss, but still a fantastic game worth tuning in to.
Oklahoma St. @ Missouri: A HUGE battle for 4th place in the Big 12 (and with K-State at Kansas tonight, perhaps even third place...). Both teams have been pleasantly surprising this year, easily outpacing Oklahoma and Texas Tech. OK State is 16-4, Mizzou stands at 15-5, and they are tied in conference play. This game gives the winner a huge leg up in getting to the Dance.
Baylor @ Texas: Put Baylor in the category with the two teams above; pleasantly surprising. Texas is still a beast - don't let the recent slide fool you. They are still in line for a possible #1 seed...unless Baylor clips them on the road. A win like this one would likely have Scott Drew's Bears on the right side of the bubble come March.
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: Forget the subplot lines; Kentucky rebounding from their first loss, Vandy trying to stay hot, etc. This game is for the lead in the SEC East. If Vandy nips the Cats, they would open up a two game conference lead and have already beaten Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina on the road. Doesn't that sound like the resume of a Top 2 seed?? Not saying ANY of that will happen, but today's game is bigger than it looks on paper (and in the AP polls).
Harvard @ Cornell: Forget the hyperbole for all the games I scrawled above about getting in or not making the tournament. The most important game of the day is happening on the campus of the Cornell Red. The Ivy League is the only league that refuses to play a conference tournament, meaning the regular season winner gets the league's tourney bid. I have read a few columns that suggested the Red would earn an at-large bid should they falter to the Crimson. Don't believe that for a second! Sentimentality aside, their signature "win" is a close loss to Kansas. If that's what you are looking for, give Charlie Weiss and extension at Notre Dame. This game is do-or-die, and probably the best game in the country tomorrow. Of course, unless you live on campus at Cornell, I don't think you'll be able to see it...just check back here for the coverage...
Northwestern @ Michigan State: Many people on TV and radio suggested the Wildcats need this game to have any chance at the tourney (not true - as my loyal readers know) BUT if they can repeat last year's surprising win at Sparty it does put a HUGE chip in their pile for earning their first ever NCAA bid. That said, don't dispair when Sparty hammers them.
Kansas @ Kansas State: The Maniac was one of many who praised the KSU students for staying OFF the court after beating then-number one Texas. Drop now #1 Kansas? Have at it guys, have at it. And while you are at it, dodge the subsequent let down game and you have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 and earning a #2 seed. For KU, a win here puts them back atop the polls and has them trending towards the #1 overall seed in the tournament.
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Here is a quick rundown of the biggest games of a packed Saturday.
Louisville @ West Virginia: The Cards are 13-7, and a loss today would drop them to 13-8. With nary a great win on their resume and looming blowout losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina, anything shy of a huge step-up game today leaves them in dire straights. For the Mountaineers, a number one seed isn't out of the question, but they can't drop any more home games. Especially to teams like the 'Ville.
Marquette @ Connecticut: The Warriors are the textbook definition of a tough-luck ballclub, having lost three games in conference to Top 25 team in the final seconds. Since the NCAA committee rarely looks at margin of loss, the biggest stat that matters right now is 12-8. Connecticut is only one game better at 13-7, but has better non-conference wins (and losses) and a little more name cache (not that it is supposed to matter). Interesting fact, Marquette is 0-5 on the road this season. If that streak runs to six, it's time to kick some dirt on their grave. However, should they win, the middle of the BEast gets intersting with both teams in a six or seven team scrum for likely two, possibly three bids. It's a BIG game in Storrs (but let's hope the Huskie fans don't storm the court if they win...seriously...stay off the floor.)
Duke @ Georgetown: Wow! How often do we get an Elite Eight level non-conference game this late in the year? Not very often, so enjoy it. The winner puts a HUGE chip in their pile and stays on track for a #1 or #2 seed. Duke loses less with a loss since its a true road game. If the Hoyas lose, it has them trending towards a 4/5 seed. Neither team is crippled with a loss, but still a fantastic game worth tuning in to.
Oklahoma St. @ Missouri: A HUGE battle for 4th place in the Big 12 (and with K-State at Kansas tonight, perhaps even third place...). Both teams have been pleasantly surprising this year, easily outpacing Oklahoma and Texas Tech. OK State is 16-4, Mizzou stands at 15-5, and they are tied in conference play. This game gives the winner a huge leg up in getting to the Dance.
Baylor @ Texas: Put Baylor in the category with the two teams above; pleasantly surprising. Texas is still a beast - don't let the recent slide fool you. They are still in line for a possible #1 seed...unless Baylor clips them on the road. A win like this one would likely have Scott Drew's Bears on the right side of the bubble come March.
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: Forget the subplot lines; Kentucky rebounding from their first loss, Vandy trying to stay hot, etc. This game is for the lead in the SEC East. If Vandy nips the Cats, they would open up a two game conference lead and have already beaten Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina on the road. Doesn't that sound like the resume of a Top 2 seed?? Not saying ANY of that will happen, but today's game is bigger than it looks on paper (and in the AP polls).
Harvard @ Cornell: Forget the hyperbole for all the games I scrawled above about getting in or not making the tournament. The most important game of the day is happening on the campus of the Cornell Red. The Ivy League is the only league that refuses to play a conference tournament, meaning the regular season winner gets the league's tourney bid. I have read a few columns that suggested the Red would earn an at-large bid should they falter to the Crimson. Don't believe that for a second! Sentimentality aside, their signature "win" is a close loss to Kansas. If that's what you are looking for, give Charlie Weiss and extension at Notre Dame. This game is do-or-die, and probably the best game in the country tomorrow. Of course, unless you live on campus at Cornell, I don't think you'll be able to see it...just check back here for the coverage...
Northwestern @ Michigan State: Many people on TV and radio suggested the Wildcats need this game to have any chance at the tourney (not true - as my loyal readers know) BUT if they can repeat last year's surprising win at Sparty it does put a HUGE chip in their pile for earning their first ever NCAA bid. That said, don't dispair when Sparty hammers them.
Kansas @ Kansas State: The Maniac was one of many who praised the KSU students for staying OFF the court after beating then-number one Texas. Drop now #1 Kansas? Have at it guys, have at it. And while you are at it, dodge the subsequent let down game and you have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 and earning a #2 seed. For KU, a win here puts them back atop the polls and has them trending towards the #1 overall seed in the tournament.
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Two Favorites for the Road
As of this morning, the Maniac sits a pleasant ten games over .500 ATS on the season picks. Here's two quickies. Syracuse heads to Notre Dame where the Irish have been tough. So tough they've lost to Loyola Marymount and Northwestern. I think Syracuse zones 'em up, and forces someone other than Harangody to beat them... and I'm not sure who can fit that bill. I like the 'Cuse laying the 3.
In the late game on ESPN, Texas gets yet another huge test when they travel to Manhattan to face the Wildcats. K-State has been good this year, and has a really solid ballclub. However, there is just something about Damion James, Avery Bradley and this year's Longhorn squad that ramps it up a notch for the big games. I like the Horns depth to wear them out down the stretch and grab another big win. Don't be surprised though if the Wildcats lead early and most of the second half.
MANIAC'S PICKS:
Syracuse - 3
Texas -1.5
Working Overtime - A Chaotic Saturday in College Hoops
Just in case you needed any more proof that this year's tourney is as unpredictable as any in recent memory, with no clear cut favorites, take a quick sampling of some of this afternoon's contests.
Texas and Kentucky remained the nation's only two unbeatens, but you'd be hard pressed to call them the nation's clear two best teams. For the second time this week Kentucky looked lackluster, struggling to put away a lower-echelon and NIT-at-BEST conference foes. Today they let Auburn hang around until the final minutes before a few John Wall blow-byes sealed the deal. They seem ripe for a loss, though to this point it has been the better teams have brought out the Cats' edge. Perhaps it will be one of the lesser foes that get them (Arkansas? @South Carolina?) They have let Miami (OH), Georgia, and now Auburn play them tight for 39 minutes, yet handled UConn, Louisville and Florida with aplomb. Lack of focus? Perhaps it is simply parity, parity, parity.
Texas can let out a Texas-sized sigh of relief after dodging a bullet at home against Texas A&M. The Aggies led for 39 minutes, all but the most important final one; before the Longhorns forced OT and gabbed the win. This is not a new trend for the Horns either, as more than a few unranked opponents (though A&M is a good tourney-likely ballclub) hang around until the final few minutes. Like Kentucky, they have brought their A-game for A-opponents. The Horns better Monday when they visit Kansas State in Manhattan, or they will leave with their first loss.
The BEast continues to roar with seemingly every game being a fantastic gut-wrencher. The season kicked off before the new year giving us a West Virginia over Seton Hall OT thriller. Today? Syaracuse wins by 1 at West Virginia, Pitt need OT to stave off Louisville (and remain 5-0 in conference), and Notre Dame gets clipped by two in their road upset bid of Cincinnati. Only Villanova and Pitt remain unbeaten, and legitimatly 11 teams in this league are easily among the Top 65. Will all eleven gets bids? Of course not, but those last two are three are going to be one heck of a fight that will likely not be decided until Madison Square Garden.
Not wanting to be left out of the OT party, the SEC handed out an absolute thriller in Knoxville. While one can debate the meritoriousness, considering the situation that derived the predicament, the Vols are undeniably becoming a team of national curiosity. Not only are they a good story, they are also the hottest team in the country. The orange surge continued today with a scintillating win over Ole Miss that took 45 minutes to decide.
Want some more parity? Georgia Tech and Syracuse eeked out final possession wins over highly rated conference foes on the road (UNC and WVU), yet both have lost home games to unranked opponents in the past two weeks (in the 'Cuse defense, Pitt is Top-15 as of today).
Clemson looked like world beaters against UNC earlier this week and again for 35 minutes today against NC State. Then a 19 point lead evaporated into a "glad that desperation three came up short" three point win. NC State beat Georgia Tech last week. And lost to Florida on a 60 foot buzzer beater... Seriously, you figure out the ACC. The only team that seems to be fully clicking is... Virginia? Yep. After an 18-point win over Miami (exposed this week much? Wow.) the Cavs are the only 3-0 team in the league. Are they better than Duke? Not a chance. But it might be time to start paying attention to the Cavs in the wacky 2010 ACC.
What I do know about the ACC? Teams are going to continue to pressure Carolina until there is some indication Larry Drew can handle it. So far, so bad for the sophomore point guard. The more the pressure turns him over, the more he seems to be pressing. He really looked rough down the stretch toda against Tech. It looks to me like Roy Williams is desperately searching for a combination that works, and will have to do it with the Heels unranked for the first time as of Monday (assuming voters have any sense at all...)
And what is going on in Boiler country? Since writing my well-researched proclamation on the Boilers Final Four-worthiness, they haven't won a single game, going from undefeated to seventh place in the Big Ten in the span of ten days. Tonight's loss at Northwestern isn't a back-breaker, but a number one seed is starting to slip away. Michigan State handled their biz today, handing Illinois their first conference loss in moving to 5-0. This puts Sparty a full three games ahead of Purdue (granted, they still play twice), and I find it hard to believe the committee will reward a number one seed to a team that fails to win their conference (other than the obvious 1-2 in the Big 12 and possibly the BEast).
Parity is running wild, in every conference large and small. This week's Bracketeering is going to be based a lot on subjective matters and eye-ball tests and hypothesis and is sure to raise a few eyebrows and arguments.
Not that we'd want it any other way.
Texas and Kentucky remained the nation's only two unbeatens, but you'd be hard pressed to call them the nation's clear two best teams. For the second time this week Kentucky looked lackluster, struggling to put away a lower-echelon and NIT-at-BEST conference foes. Today they let Auburn hang around until the final minutes before a few John Wall blow-byes sealed the deal. They seem ripe for a loss, though to this point it has been the better teams have brought out the Cats' edge. Perhaps it will be one of the lesser foes that get them (Arkansas? @South Carolina?) They have let Miami (OH), Georgia, and now Auburn play them tight for 39 minutes, yet handled UConn, Louisville and Florida with aplomb. Lack of focus? Perhaps it is simply parity, parity, parity.
Texas can let out a Texas-sized sigh of relief after dodging a bullet at home against Texas A&M. The Aggies led for 39 minutes, all but the most important final one; before the Longhorns forced OT and gabbed the win. This is not a new trend for the Horns either, as more than a few unranked opponents (though A&M is a good tourney-likely ballclub) hang around until the final few minutes. Like Kentucky, they have brought their A-game for A-opponents. The Horns better Monday when they visit Kansas State in Manhattan, or they will leave with their first loss.
The BEast continues to roar with seemingly every game being a fantastic gut-wrencher. The season kicked off before the new year giving us a West Virginia over Seton Hall OT thriller. Today? Syaracuse wins by 1 at West Virginia, Pitt need OT to stave off Louisville (and remain 5-0 in conference), and Notre Dame gets clipped by two in their road upset bid of Cincinnati. Only Villanova and Pitt remain unbeaten, and legitimatly 11 teams in this league are easily among the Top 65. Will all eleven gets bids? Of course not, but those last two are three are going to be one heck of a fight that will likely not be decided until Madison Square Garden.
Not wanting to be left out of the OT party, the SEC handed out an absolute thriller in Knoxville. While one can debate the meritoriousness, considering the situation that derived the predicament, the Vols are undeniably becoming a team of national curiosity. Not only are they a good story, they are also the hottest team in the country. The orange surge continued today with a scintillating win over Ole Miss that took 45 minutes to decide.
Want some more parity? Georgia Tech and Syracuse eeked out final possession wins over highly rated conference foes on the road (UNC and WVU), yet both have lost home games to unranked opponents in the past two weeks (in the 'Cuse defense, Pitt is Top-15 as of today).
Clemson looked like world beaters against UNC earlier this week and again for 35 minutes today against NC State. Then a 19 point lead evaporated into a "glad that desperation three came up short" three point win. NC State beat Georgia Tech last week. And lost to Florida on a 60 foot buzzer beater... Seriously, you figure out the ACC. The only team that seems to be fully clicking is... Virginia? Yep. After an 18-point win over Miami (exposed this week much? Wow.) the Cavs are the only 3-0 team in the league. Are they better than Duke? Not a chance. But it might be time to start paying attention to the Cavs in the wacky 2010 ACC.
What I do know about the ACC? Teams are going to continue to pressure Carolina until there is some indication Larry Drew can handle it. So far, so bad for the sophomore point guard. The more the pressure turns him over, the more he seems to be pressing. He really looked rough down the stretch toda against Tech. It looks to me like Roy Williams is desperately searching for a combination that works, and will have to do it with the Heels unranked for the first time as of Monday (assuming voters have any sense at all...)
And what is going on in Boiler country? Since writing my well-researched proclamation on the Boilers Final Four-worthiness, they haven't won a single game, going from undefeated to seventh place in the Big Ten in the span of ten days. Tonight's loss at Northwestern isn't a back-breaker, but a number one seed is starting to slip away. Michigan State handled their biz today, handing Illinois their first conference loss in moving to 5-0. This puts Sparty a full three games ahead of Purdue (granted, they still play twice), and I find it hard to believe the committee will reward a number one seed to a team that fails to win their conference (other than the obvious 1-2 in the Big 12 and possibly the BEast).
Parity is running wild, in every conference large and small. This week's Bracketeering is going to be based a lot on subjective matters and eye-ball tests and hypothesis and is sure to raise a few eyebrows and arguments.
Not that we'd want it any other way.
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A New Year of Bracketeering - Jan 8th, 2010
The calendar has turned and we bravely embark on a new decade of Bracketeering. First off - a big thanks to all our readers, you are growing in numbers and pretty soon the Maniac has a feeling that relatives will no longer control the majority of our audeince... goodtimes indeed.
For our neophytes, a quick synopsis of the methodology employed here: 1. We do not care about the AP and coaches poll, wins and losses do not move you up or down a prescribed number of slots. 2. We do our best to weigh both performance, but also a little predictive nature as well, meaning not just what you have done, but also waht our eyes tell us you can do. 3. You are welcome to piss, moan and complain about our rankings. We enjoy the emails, and have learned several new creatives profanities from you. So, Mazel Tov, and Happy New Year.
Enjoy the decade's first edition of Bracketeering.
FINAL FOUR:
1. Texas - I definitely flirted with dropping the Horns this week after a few somnambulistic performances against UT Corpus Christi and Arkansas. However, don't most good team go through a few little lulls here and there, especially in games against lesser competition? What I do know is that when the big boys came to play, the Horns beat 'em by double digits. They win a lot of games late, if for no other reason than they have tremendous depth. The general fan is more familiar with the names on Kansas and Kentucky's rosters, but the Horns are ten deep, athletic and balanced. For now - they keep our top slot once again.
2. Kansas - Some people will overreact to the close call at home against Cornell, but not us. The Red are good. Even better? The stern test of the Jayhawks before the rigors of confere4nce play commence. It has been a long time since they were tested. It is good to find out who your Alpha Dog is before everything is on the line in March. And if there was any doubt, there is no longer. It's Sherron Collins. His numbers aren't spectacular; and therein lies his greatest strength on my POY ballot. He is assimilating all the talent available with aplomb, and gives them everything you want from a PG who will be contending for a National Title. So, yeah, I've come around on Collins.
Oh, and the dismantling of a good Temple team on the road was as brilliant as a team has played this year. Not this team. Any team.
3. Purdue - I'm starting to really love this team. They share the ball better than any team in the nation, and remind me a lot of the 2006-2007 Gator squad. They have good players with clearly, and perfectly defined roles. They have NBA talent with Johnson, Hummel and E'Twan Moore. They have the best glue guy in country in Chris Kramer and have a functional bench. They are not more talented per se than our #4 team, but gut instict tells me they are a little better as a team.
This is a huge "show me" stretch coming up for the Boilers with a trip to the Kohl Center tomorrow (where the Badgers have already beaten Duke) and a visit from the once again Evan Turner-led Buckeyes on Tuesday. Win both? Final Four talk has to heat up beyond Boiling in West Lafayette.
4. Kentucky - Fourth? Last week I have them #2, they handle Louisville, I write a "Run the Table" column...and now drop them to fourth? It's not an indictment of the Cats, it's simply that Kansas and Purdue looked brilliant the past week, and the Cats are still a little more potential than polish. That said, with Wall and Cousins blossoming more every week, it is getting harder and harder to see this team not making the short drive to Indy this April. Think there'd be a few Cat fans there??
ELITE EIGHT:
5. Duke - I'm getting less and less gun shy about my take on the Devils everytime I see them play...but still have an ounce of trepidation after the way they eveaporated in conference play and the tourney. That said, they are number 5...and then there is a drop. I'd be comfortable with them in the Final Five is such a thing existed.
Is there a classier act in college hoops than Coach K? The Dukies played a neutral court game with Iowa State in their annual tradition of bringing a game to a veteran player's hometown to play in front of friends and family. This time, John Scheyer did not disappoint, playing brilliantly and continuing his surprising First Team All-American campaign (and yes, he would have my vote once my ballot arrives....waiting...hmmm....)
6. Syracuse - Perhaps the loss to Pitt wasn't so bad in retrospect? We'll know more in a few weeks. What I do know, is that aside from that blip (where I thought Pitt just caught fire from behind the arc against the zone), they've looked like a Final Four caliber team. Great guard play, an All-American swingman in Wesley Johnson and some bangers underneath. Still love this team, and the bounce back win over Memphis shows me they are mentally tough as well.
7. West Virginia - Losing to Purdue is not a big deal. They should have lost to Marquette, but didn't. That said, this team has loads of talent and is dangerous. They are seventh, but I think I'd prefer to have them eighth, and leave the seventh slot open. There is that clear of a gap between the Top Six so far this season and the rest of the pack. Let's see if the 'Eers can maintain their focus and win two they should (Notre Dame and USF) before hosting Syracuse next weekend.
8.Kansas State - The Wildcats are just kind of hovering for the time being. I'm not sure they are the 8th best team in the country but am looking forward to getting a read on them this weekend with a trip to Missouri and a Tuesday visit from Texas A&M. Oh, and there's a little trip from Texas next weekend as well...
Sweet and lurking: The next tier
9. Michigan State - Is the run starting? It usually comes around February, until next thing you know, the Spartans are the dangerous #2 seed no one wants in their Region. The difference this year? They were as high as #2 in many national polls until a few early losses knocked them off the radar. The solid win over Wisconsin was impressive. Although there are no "gimmes" in the Big Ten (save for Iowa) their next seven games are all realistically "should wins" with the possible exception of a trip to Minnesota. Expect the Spartans to be right in the thivk of the Big Ten race when an exciting pair of games with Purdue rolls around this February.
10. Ole Miss - Maybe a little high considering the two losses are to upper echelon Big East teams, Villanova and West Virginia, which could suggest they are not a top tier team. Their inside play is uneven at best and not always pretty to watch. However, the old axiom that guard play wins in the tourney bodes well for Ole Miss who boasts the most underrated backcourt in the country.
11. Villanova - Wow, it seems like the #11 hole is where we weekly bury the upcoming prospects of some unsuspecting mid-major. Last edition we offered Temple up to the basketball Gods, only to have them sacrificed on the Jayhawks alter. This week, we flirted with a few of our mid-major darlings, but were compelled to concede the spot belongs to Villanova. I think it is becoming my silent accidental bias, but I am just never sold on these guys, despite the tourney success every year with Scottie Reynolds and Jay Wright. I am curious to see how they handle a visit from tough luck 1-2 Marquette and their trip to Louisville on Tuesday.
12. Connecticut - They have three losses by a combined total of fourteen points. The losses: Duke, Kentucky and at Cincinnati. They have a few holes, but much like Carolina I would be fearful of this team in March. They have one of the highest ceilings of any Big East team.
13. Northern Iowa - Yeah, I'm aware they are unranked in the polls. That's because most voters don't realize that good basketball happens outside the Big Six conferences, Memphis and Gonzaga. The Missouri Valley is consistently incredibly balanced and good. The Panthers are 4-0 in league play with wins over three of the top challengers (all by comfortable margins); Southern Illinois, Creighton and Missouri State. They have a tricky trip to Illinois State tomorrow (which I have probably effectively hexed them in...)
14. Wake Forest - I'm not sure why we all collectively forgot about the Deac's heading into this season. Sure, they miss early entries Johnson and Teague, but still have All-American candidate Al-Farouq Aminu dominating the paint. Admittedly this spot could have just as easily gone to Miami, Florida State, North Carolina (who I refuse to give up on!) and possibly even Virginia Tech. However, I give Wake the nod after completing a month without a loss that included wins over Gonzaga, NC State, Richmond and Xavier.
The Demon Deacons have a tough stretch with a trip to Miami tomorrow, a visit from Maryland Tuesday, then consecutive trips to Durham and Chapel Hill.
So in all likliehood, we have also put a well-timed hex on Wake! That said, go 2-2, and life is fine. Emerge 3-1 and this spot is more than well earned; it's too low.
15. Gonzaga - We are officially absolving them for the Duke disaster, figuring they are not the first or the last team to get humiliated on a bad day against the Dukies. They followed it up by winning at Oklahoma and at Illinois. Let's see how they handle the next, and most difficult remaining, stretch of the season: AT Portland tomorrow, AT St Mary's on Tuesday and AT San Diego next weekend. Win those three and they grab the improved WCC by the throat and can begin focusing on earning a Top 4 seed for March. Goodness knows they've played the schedule to merit it.
16. Rhode Island - Last week we honored USC with our final slot. They rewarded us by sacrificing their hoops program to save Pete Carrol's Golden Goose and banned themselves from post season play. So from here on in, they are similarly banned from Bracketeering. If you aren't going to the Big Dance, then just go away.
This edition's beneficiary? How about the Rams? They are 12-1, and are playing in the Nation's sixth best conference. Yes, the A-10 is clearly better than the Pac-10. Get over it BCS honks.
This Sunday's Temple v. Rhode Island game is one of the first real gems of many in A-10 conference play. After Temple, they get a few easier tests before back-to-back roadies at Xavier and Dayton to end Januaury. By then we'll have a pretty good read on how the A-10 is going to shake out. For now, we give the Rams the nod, but acknowledge Temple, Dayton and Xavier could all win the league, and expect some pressure from Richmond and maybe even Charlotte and George Washington.
Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Cal is a disaster, I've all but given up on the Bears. Oklahoma is approaching that status as well. Seton Hall seemed formidable but is 0-3 in BEast play and is certainly on the ropes. Xavier is disappointing at 9-5, but have taken very few bad losses. They are a 4 or 5 game win streak away from being relevant again. Butler is not in terrible shape, but needs to win their league more than they have in year's past after an unimpressive and uneven non-conference performance.
Is it fair to label Portland a disappointment? Consider that if not for an avalanche of early attention from beating UCLA (who we now know sucks out loud), and a injury/suspension ridden Minnesota team, would anyone have really cared much about the Pilots? Either way, after expectations heightened they responded with losses to Portland State, Idaho, Washington and Nevada. They are not an at-large team anymore, and will need to upset Gonzaga tomorrow to have any life left in their fading chances.
It isn't fair to label these two teams a bust, but I am sure Northwestern and Ohio State were hoping for better conference starts. The good news for Ohio State is Evan Turner's back in plenty of time to save the season. Unfortunately for NW, Kevin Coble is nowhere in sight and things are looking bleak for ending the most famous tourney drought in the country.
Half Court Heaves: Teams outside the common radar worth keeping an eye on
I usually just list the teams you may not have heard of, this week we include a few more teams from power conferences that have a good chance to contend for a bid. My near-locks are bolded. Teams that are strong enough that they could mess things up by losing the conference tourney and swiping a possible at-large are italicized.
Miami, Florida State, Pitt, Louisville, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Vermont, Richmond, Xavier, Dayton, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northern Colorado, Denver, Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Coastal Carliona, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, William & Mary, Old Dominion, UAB, Tulsa, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Harvard, Siena, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Murray State, Washington, Washington State, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Western Carolina, Texas San-Antonio, St. Mary's, Louisiana Tech (though very doubtful they snag an at-large judging by historical WAC results)
For our neophytes, a quick synopsis of the methodology employed here: 1. We do not care about the AP and coaches poll, wins and losses do not move you up or down a prescribed number of slots. 2. We do our best to weigh both performance, but also a little predictive nature as well, meaning not just what you have done, but also waht our eyes tell us you can do. 3. You are welcome to piss, moan and complain about our rankings. We enjoy the emails, and have learned several new creatives profanities from you. So, Mazel Tov, and Happy New Year.
Enjoy the decade's first edition of Bracketeering.
FINAL FOUR:
1. Texas - I definitely flirted with dropping the Horns this week after a few somnambulistic performances against UT Corpus Christi and Arkansas. However, don't most good team go through a few little lulls here and there, especially in games against lesser competition? What I do know is that when the big boys came to play, the Horns beat 'em by double digits. They win a lot of games late, if for no other reason than they have tremendous depth. The general fan is more familiar with the names on Kansas and Kentucky's rosters, but the Horns are ten deep, athletic and balanced. For now - they keep our top slot once again.
2. Kansas - Some people will overreact to the close call at home against Cornell, but not us. The Red are good. Even better? The stern test of the Jayhawks before the rigors of confere4nce play commence. It has been a long time since they were tested. It is good to find out who your Alpha Dog is before everything is on the line in March. And if there was any doubt, there is no longer. It's Sherron Collins. His numbers aren't spectacular; and therein lies his greatest strength on my POY ballot. He is assimilating all the talent available with aplomb, and gives them everything you want from a PG who will be contending for a National Title. So, yeah, I've come around on Collins.Oh, and the dismantling of a good Temple team on the road was as brilliant as a team has played this year. Not this team. Any team.
3. Purdue - I'm starting to really love this team. They share the ball better than any team in the nation, and remind me a lot of the 2006-2007 Gator squad. They have good players with clearly, and perfectly defined roles. They have NBA talent with Johnson, Hummel and E'Twan Moore. They have the best glue guy in country in Chris Kramer and have a functional bench. They are not more talented per se than our #4 team, but gut instict tells me they are a little better as a team.
This is a huge "show me" stretch coming up for the Boilers with a trip to the Kohl Center tomorrow (where the Badgers have already beaten Duke) and a visit from the once again Evan Turner-led Buckeyes on Tuesday. Win both? Final Four talk has to heat up beyond Boiling in West Lafayette.
4. Kentucky - Fourth? Last week I have them #2, they handle Louisville, I write a "Run the Table" column...and now drop them to fourth? It's not an indictment of the Cats, it's simply that Kansas and Purdue looked brilliant the past week, and the Cats are still a little more potential than polish. That said, with Wall and Cousins blossoming more every week, it is getting harder and harder to see this team not making the short drive to Indy this April. Think there'd be a few Cat fans there??
ELITE EIGHT:
5. Duke - I'm getting less and less gun shy about my take on the Devils everytime I see them play...but still have an ounce of trepidation after the way they eveaporated in conference play and the tourney. That said, they are number 5...and then there is a drop. I'd be comfortable with them in the Final Five is such a thing existed.Is there a classier act in college hoops than Coach K? The Dukies played a neutral court game with Iowa State in their annual tradition of bringing a game to a veteran player's hometown to play in front of friends and family. This time, John Scheyer did not disappoint, playing brilliantly and continuing his surprising First Team All-American campaign (and yes, he would have my vote once my ballot arrives....waiting...hmmm....)
6. Syracuse - Perhaps the loss to Pitt wasn't so bad in retrospect? We'll know more in a few weeks. What I do know, is that aside from that blip (where I thought Pitt just caught fire from behind the arc against the zone), they've looked like a Final Four caliber team. Great guard play, an All-American swingman in Wesley Johnson and some bangers underneath. Still love this team, and the bounce back win over Memphis shows me they are mentally tough as well.
7. West Virginia - Losing to Purdue is not a big deal. They should have lost to Marquette, but didn't. That said, this team has loads of talent and is dangerous. They are seventh, but I think I'd prefer to have them eighth, and leave the seventh slot open. There is that clear of a gap between the Top Six so far this season and the rest of the pack. Let's see if the 'Eers can maintain their focus and win two they should (Notre Dame and USF) before hosting Syracuse next weekend.
8.Kansas State - The Wildcats are just kind of hovering for the time being. I'm not sure they are the 8th best team in the country but am looking forward to getting a read on them this weekend with a trip to Missouri and a Tuesday visit from Texas A&M. Oh, and there's a little trip from Texas next weekend as well...
Sweet and lurking: The next tier
9. Michigan State - Is the run starting? It usually comes around February, until next thing you know, the Spartans are the dangerous #2 seed no one wants in their Region. The difference this year? They were as high as #2 in many national polls until a few early losses knocked them off the radar. The solid win over Wisconsin was impressive. Although there are no "gimmes" in the Big Ten (save for Iowa) their next seven games are all realistically "should wins" with the possible exception of a trip to Minnesota. Expect the Spartans to be right in the thivk of the Big Ten race when an exciting pair of games with Purdue rolls around this February.
10. Ole Miss - Maybe a little high considering the two losses are to upper echelon Big East teams, Villanova and West Virginia, which could suggest they are not a top tier team. Their inside play is uneven at best and not always pretty to watch. However, the old axiom that guard play wins in the tourney bodes well for Ole Miss who boasts the most underrated backcourt in the country.
11. Villanova - Wow, it seems like the #11 hole is where we weekly bury the upcoming prospects of some unsuspecting mid-major. Last edition we offered Temple up to the basketball Gods, only to have them sacrificed on the Jayhawks alter. This week, we flirted with a few of our mid-major darlings, but were compelled to concede the spot belongs to Villanova. I think it is becoming my silent accidental bias, but I am just never sold on these guys, despite the tourney success every year with Scottie Reynolds and Jay Wright. I am curious to see how they handle a visit from tough luck 1-2 Marquette and their trip to Louisville on Tuesday.
12. Connecticut - They have three losses by a combined total of fourteen points. The losses: Duke, Kentucky and at Cincinnati. They have a few holes, but much like Carolina I would be fearful of this team in March. They have one of the highest ceilings of any Big East team.
13. Northern Iowa - Yeah, I'm aware they are unranked in the polls. That's because most voters don't realize that good basketball happens outside the Big Six conferences, Memphis and Gonzaga. The Missouri Valley is consistently incredibly balanced and good. The Panthers are 4-0 in league play with wins over three of the top challengers (all by comfortable margins); Southern Illinois, Creighton and Missouri State. They have a tricky trip to Illinois State tomorrow (which I have probably effectively hexed them in...)
14. Wake Forest - I'm not sure why we all collectively forgot about the Deac's heading into this season. Sure, they miss early entries Johnson and Teague, but still have All-American candidate Al-Farouq Aminu dominating the paint. Admittedly this spot could have just as easily gone to Miami, Florida State, North Carolina (who I refuse to give up on!) and possibly even Virginia Tech. However, I give Wake the nod after completing a month without a loss that included wins over Gonzaga, NC State, Richmond and Xavier.The Demon Deacons have a tough stretch with a trip to Miami tomorrow, a visit from Maryland Tuesday, then consecutive trips to Durham and Chapel Hill.
So in all likliehood, we have also put a well-timed hex on Wake! That said, go 2-2, and life is fine. Emerge 3-1 and this spot is more than well earned; it's too low.
15. Gonzaga - We are officially absolving them for the Duke disaster, figuring they are not the first or the last team to get humiliated on a bad day against the Dukies. They followed it up by winning at Oklahoma and at Illinois. Let's see how they handle the next, and most difficult remaining, stretch of the season: AT Portland tomorrow, AT St Mary's on Tuesday and AT San Diego next weekend. Win those three and they grab the improved WCC by the throat and can begin focusing on earning a Top 4 seed for March. Goodness knows they've played the schedule to merit it.
16. Rhode Island - Last week we honored USC with our final slot. They rewarded us by sacrificing their hoops program to save Pete Carrol's Golden Goose and banned themselves from post season play. So from here on in, they are similarly banned from Bracketeering. If you aren't going to the Big Dance, then just go away.
This edition's beneficiary? How about the Rams? They are 12-1, and are playing in the Nation's sixth best conference. Yes, the A-10 is clearly better than the Pac-10. Get over it BCS honks.
This Sunday's Temple v. Rhode Island game is one of the first real gems of many in A-10 conference play. After Temple, they get a few easier tests before back-to-back roadies at Xavier and Dayton to end Januaury. By then we'll have a pretty good read on how the A-10 is going to shake out. For now, we give the Rams the nod, but acknowledge Temple, Dayton and Xavier could all win the league, and expect some pressure from Richmond and maybe even Charlotte and George Washington.
Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Cal is a disaster, I've all but given up on the Bears. Oklahoma is approaching that status as well. Seton Hall seemed formidable but is 0-3 in BEast play and is certainly on the ropes. Xavier is disappointing at 9-5, but have taken very few bad losses. They are a 4 or 5 game win streak away from being relevant again. Butler is not in terrible shape, but needs to win their league more than they have in year's past after an unimpressive and uneven non-conference performance.
Is it fair to label Portland a disappointment? Consider that if not for an avalanche of early attention from beating UCLA (who we now know sucks out loud), and a injury/suspension ridden Minnesota team, would anyone have really cared much about the Pilots? Either way, after expectations heightened they responded with losses to Portland State, Idaho, Washington and Nevada. They are not an at-large team anymore, and will need to upset Gonzaga tomorrow to have any life left in their fading chances.
It isn't fair to label these two teams a bust, but I am sure Northwestern and Ohio State were hoping for better conference starts. The good news for Ohio State is Evan Turner's back in plenty of time to save the season. Unfortunately for NW, Kevin Coble is nowhere in sight and things are looking bleak for ending the most famous tourney drought in the country.
Half Court Heaves: Teams outside the common radar worth keeping an eye on
I usually just list the teams you may not have heard of, this week we include a few more teams from power conferences that have a good chance to contend for a bid. My near-locks are bolded. Teams that are strong enough that they could mess things up by losing the conference tourney and swiping a possible at-large are italicized.
Miami, Florida State, Pitt, Louisville, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Vermont, Richmond, Xavier, Dayton, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northern Colorado, Denver, Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Coastal Carliona, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, William & Mary, Old Dominion, UAB, Tulsa, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Harvard, Siena, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Murray State, Washington, Washington State, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Western Carolina, Texas San-Antonio, St. Mary's, Louisiana Tech (though very doubtful they snag an at-large judging by historical WAC results)
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New Year's Conference Resolutions: Big Twelve
Here's the second of ten conference installments of some New Year's Resolutions and Prognostications. As always, your dissension is welcomed...
BIG Twelve:
The Big Twelve came into the year as our Playboy Award candidate (conference heaviest up top with a lot of airbrushing below), with Kansas and Texas clearly being a notch above everyone else and quite possibly above the rest of the country.
Having two dominant superpowers rule the roost isn't necessarily a bad thing; see Duke and UNC in the ACC. However, the question loomed, is there any depth beyond the Big Two in this year's Big 12? So far this season, it has looked like there certainly is, and there might possibly be a few Sweet 16 caliber teams lurking around.
Kansas State has to be one of the most pleasant surprises in 2009, racing out to an impressive 12-1 start with wins over Xavier, UNLV, Dayton and Washington State. Baylor has also looked better than expected and should contend for a bid.
Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have amassed some early wins as well and should contend for a bid...though we're not quite ready to label them tourney bound just yet. The only glaring dissapointment thus far has been Oklahoma. We knew there would be an adjustment perios without Blake and Taylor Griffin, but felt confident Willie Warren would be able to hold the rope (particularly with "Tiny" Gallon anchoring it...) So far? Not so good. Not good at all.
Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:
The Good:
Texas looks fantastic, and we have felt solid having them at the top spot in Bracketeering from the season's outset. The 76-70 sleep-walk today against TX-Corpus Christi is understandable; their two games prior were wins over UNC and Michigan State. A letdown was inevitable. Rick Barnes has a few weeks to get them geared up for back-to-backers at Kansas State and at UConn.
Kansas is good. OK, Kansas is real good. After watching them dismantle Temple on the road toady I'm ready to concede this is probably the best team in the country. They have no holes. Sherron Collins is distributing the ball and running the team flawlessly. Xavier Henry is truly playing the "Grant Hill 1991" role on this team. Watching his poise, intelligence fused with blinding athleticism and a feathery touch on the mid range jumper... to me the comparison is accurate and uncanny. Throw in the best back-to-the-basket center in the nation in Alderich and it isn't unreasonable to think they will be unbeaten when the Feb. 8th date with Texas comes rolling around.
Win that one? Yeah...it does get intriguing...
Kansas State is not just good. They are Sweet Sixteen caliber legit. It is tough to put them in a category with the two above, but they seem like tourney locks barring a complete collapse and deserve the separation from the pack..
The Unknown:
Here is where things get a little dicey in the Big 12. Early season performance would seem to merit five to seven (high side) bids come March. The above three are locks. Here's how The Maniac sees it playing out for the remaining bids.
I like the talent and chemistry Scott Drew has working down in Baylor. In 2007 they were the conference's darlings, making an improbable return to respectability and the NCAA tourney. Last year they disappointed under heightened expectations and we were forced to wonder just where this program truly stood. An 11-1 start with wins over Xavier, South Carolina and Arizona State is a good indication the ceiling is high. They have solid guard play with Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn and Udoh gives them a nice presence in the paint. I think Baylor returns to the dance, but it will be an interesting ride.
My conference sleeper is Missouri. Little was expected of the Tigers after losing DeMarre Carroll and three other starters from last year's Elite Eight squad. However, the Tigers are entering league play at 11-3 with some impressive wins under their belt: Old Dominion. Illinois by 13. Georgia by 28. Oregon by 37. Not just the wins, but the margins tell me that the Tigers frenetic style can still be effective, even with personal changes. They are a surprising threat to get back to the NCAA Tournament.
Okahoma State and Texas Tech are the toughest reads. Both have very good records that would likely get them tourney consideration with .500 conference seasons. However, I just don't think either is quite good enough to get on the other side of the bubble. Texas Tech's best win is Washington. Their only other decent win is Stanford. They've lost to Wichita State by 2 and failed their big litmus test last week losing to New Mexico by 15. More troubling is the struggles they've had with team's they are supposed to beat; Oregon State by 4, Stephen F. Austin by 2, McNeese State by one... they just don't seem ready for Big 12 rigors to me.
Ditto for Oklahoma State. Their best win is a 1-pointer over Stanford and a win over a down Utah team. They've lost to the two best teams they've faced; Rhode Island and Tulsa. Exactly the teams they'll be on the Big Board against when the committee has to decide whether to invite a fifth or sixth Big 12 team or reward one of the "have-nots." Those losses tip the scales undeniably in the opposite direction for the 'Pokes.
If a sixth team does get in, I like Texas A&M. The Aggies have slipped off the radar the past few weeks after losses at Washington and New Mexico (by 3- no shame in that loss). They do already own wins over Clemson and Minnesota, two teams that could very likely find themselves in a similar spot come March; 18-19 wins, fifth or sixth place in a power league. Those are good chips in the Ag's favor. They get Texas only once this year and get to host that game in late February. A win over the Horns could punch their dance card.
Oklahoma stays in the "unknown" category, simply because it is still too early to completely write them off. Willie Warren has struggled and it appears as though Jeff Capel is struggling with what to do with the talented Soph. They got hammered on New Year's by Gonzaga in yet another no-show against a quality opponent. They got waxed by VCU, and have losses to UTEP, Houston and San Diego - each more difficult to explain in ascending order. The 1-point win over Northern Colorado and the squeaker with Utah don't inspire much confidence either.
So why are they still above the Maniac's cut line? They still have NBA-level talent; particularly in Warren. And because other than trips to Lawrence and Austin there isn't a game they can't win on that schedule. 10-6 in the Big 12 gets you dancing. It's possible for the Sooners. But they better get it together. And Soon...
Iowa State - Of all the teams near the bottom group, this one is the most disappointing. With Craig Brackens surprising draft experts and deciding to come back to school, some optimism that the Cyclones could return to the tourney for the first time since Tim Floyd had Marcus Fizer and Jamaal Tinsley (and one of the Maniac's faves, Paul Shirley) in uniform began to arise. Three losses in a row dampened things a bid, but when the smoke clears losing to Northwestern (by 2), Northern Iowa (by 3) and at Cal aren't terrible losses. The schedule gives them an opportunity for redemption with a trip to Cameron Indoor and the Dukies...but it is just as likely a stern national showing of how NIT-at-best the 'Clones are in 2010. For the same reason as above with the Sooners, they stay above the cut-line, but they are a distant 10th in my estimation - a true long shot.
The BAD:
Colorado has always seemed a sleeping giant to me. Unfortunately no one woke them up again this year. Perhaps Chauncey Billups has a year of eligibility hiding somewhere... They showed a little fight early, hanging real tough with Gonzaga and Arizona over in Maui. Since then they have been blasted by 15 by Colorado State and by 25 at Tulsa. There is a good chance they are no better than the third or fourth best team in a basketball-light state (Northen Colorado and Denver).
Nebraska seems to pile 10 or 11 non-conference wins up every year. Just enough to keep them in that "if they win 4 of their last 5 they have a bubble shot" discussion every year. We;re not falling for it. They have two solid wins; USC and Tulsa. As a matter of fact, glancing over their resume, I get the feeling if they could just squeeze eight wins out in conference play....
Ah, forget it.
Final Score:
Texas and Kansas are #1 seeds in March. I just can't see anyone closing the gap enough to push either of them out. Kansas State feels like a Top 4 seed as well, and definitely no worse than a solid tourney team. This is the only conference in the country with two legit national champion contenders (Yes, the Big Ten and Big East could. But No one in the stratosphere of KU and UT though.)
It will be a rocky ride on the bubble all year in the middle of the pack. Like many conferences of this high caliber, parity will smack around the pack. That said, I like Baylor, Missouri and A&M to dance. Oklahoma is still a quality sleeper to watch and Oklahoma State and Texas Tech should get in if the can stay north of .500. In doing that, they'd knock off one of the other's above.
The Big 12 should factor no worse than the 4th best RPI conference overall, and most likely Texas and Kansas should push them to #2 or #3. That should be good enough for 6 bids in March, though seven isn't out of the question.
BIG Twelve:
The Big Twelve came into the year as our Playboy Award candidate (conference heaviest up top with a lot of airbrushing below), with Kansas and Texas clearly being a notch above everyone else and quite possibly above the rest of the country.
Having two dominant superpowers rule the roost isn't necessarily a bad thing; see Duke and UNC in the ACC. However, the question loomed, is there any depth beyond the Big Two in this year's Big 12? So far this season, it has looked like there certainly is, and there might possibly be a few Sweet 16 caliber teams lurking around.
Kansas State has to be one of the most pleasant surprises in 2009, racing out to an impressive 12-1 start with wins over Xavier, UNLV, Dayton and Washington State. Baylor has also looked better than expected and should contend for a bid.
Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have amassed some early wins as well and should contend for a bid...though we're not quite ready to label them tourney bound just yet. The only glaring dissapointment thus far has been Oklahoma. We knew there would be an adjustment perios without Blake and Taylor Griffin, but felt confident Willie Warren would be able to hold the rope (particularly with "Tiny" Gallon anchoring it...) So far? Not so good. Not good at all.
Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:
The Good:
Texas looks fantastic, and we have felt solid having them at the top spot in Bracketeering from the season's outset. The 76-70 sleep-walk today against TX-Corpus Christi is understandable; their two games prior were wins over UNC and Michigan State. A letdown was inevitable. Rick Barnes has a few weeks to get them geared up for back-to-backers at Kansas State and at UConn.
Kansas is good. OK, Kansas is real good. After watching them dismantle Temple on the road toady I'm ready to concede this is probably the best team in the country. They have no holes. Sherron Collins is distributing the ball and running the team flawlessly. Xavier Henry is truly playing the "Grant Hill 1991" role on this team. Watching his poise, intelligence fused with blinding athleticism and a feathery touch on the mid range jumper... to me the comparison is accurate and uncanny. Throw in the best back-to-the-basket center in the nation in Alderich and it isn't unreasonable to think they will be unbeaten when the Feb. 8th date with Texas comes rolling around.
Win that one? Yeah...it does get intriguing...
Kansas State is not just good. They are Sweet Sixteen caliber legit. It is tough to put them in a category with the two above, but they seem like tourney locks barring a complete collapse and deserve the separation from the pack..
The Unknown:
Here is where things get a little dicey in the Big 12. Early season performance would seem to merit five to seven (high side) bids come March. The above three are locks. Here's how The Maniac sees it playing out for the remaining bids.
I like the talent and chemistry Scott Drew has working down in Baylor. In 2007 they were the conference's darlings, making an improbable return to respectability and the NCAA tourney. Last year they disappointed under heightened expectations and we were forced to wonder just where this program truly stood. An 11-1 start with wins over Xavier, South Carolina and Arizona State is a good indication the ceiling is high. They have solid guard play with Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn and Udoh gives them a nice presence in the paint. I think Baylor returns to the dance, but it will be an interesting ride.
My conference sleeper is Missouri. Little was expected of the Tigers after losing DeMarre Carroll and three other starters from last year's Elite Eight squad. However, the Tigers are entering league play at 11-3 with some impressive wins under their belt: Old Dominion. Illinois by 13. Georgia by 28. Oregon by 37. Not just the wins, but the margins tell me that the Tigers frenetic style can still be effective, even with personal changes. They are a surprising threat to get back to the NCAA Tournament.
Okahoma State and Texas Tech are the toughest reads. Both have very good records that would likely get them tourney consideration with .500 conference seasons. However, I just don't think either is quite good enough to get on the other side of the bubble. Texas Tech's best win is Washington. Their only other decent win is Stanford. They've lost to Wichita State by 2 and failed their big litmus test last week losing to New Mexico by 15. More troubling is the struggles they've had with team's they are supposed to beat; Oregon State by 4, Stephen F. Austin by 2, McNeese State by one... they just don't seem ready for Big 12 rigors to me.
Ditto for Oklahoma State. Their best win is a 1-pointer over Stanford and a win over a down Utah team. They've lost to the two best teams they've faced; Rhode Island and Tulsa. Exactly the teams they'll be on the Big Board against when the committee has to decide whether to invite a fifth or sixth Big 12 team or reward one of the "have-nots." Those losses tip the scales undeniably in the opposite direction for the 'Pokes.
If a sixth team does get in, I like Texas A&M. The Aggies have slipped off the radar the past few weeks after losses at Washington and New Mexico (by 3- no shame in that loss). They do already own wins over Clemson and Minnesota, two teams that could very likely find themselves in a similar spot come March; 18-19 wins, fifth or sixth place in a power league. Those are good chips in the Ag's favor. They get Texas only once this year and get to host that game in late February. A win over the Horns could punch their dance card.
Oklahoma stays in the "unknown" category, simply because it is still too early to completely write them off. Willie Warren has struggled and it appears as though Jeff Capel is struggling with what to do with the talented Soph. They got hammered on New Year's by Gonzaga in yet another no-show against a quality opponent. They got waxed by VCU, and have losses to UTEP, Houston and San Diego - each more difficult to explain in ascending order. The 1-point win over Northern Colorado and the squeaker with Utah don't inspire much confidence either.
So why are they still above the Maniac's cut line? They still have NBA-level talent; particularly in Warren. And because other than trips to Lawrence and Austin there isn't a game they can't win on that schedule. 10-6 in the Big 12 gets you dancing. It's possible for the Sooners. But they better get it together. And Soon...
Iowa State - Of all the teams near the bottom group, this one is the most disappointing. With Craig Brackens surprising draft experts and deciding to come back to school, some optimism that the Cyclones could return to the tourney for the first time since Tim Floyd had Marcus Fizer and Jamaal Tinsley (and one of the Maniac's faves, Paul Shirley) in uniform began to arise. Three losses in a row dampened things a bid, but when the smoke clears losing to Northwestern (by 2), Northern Iowa (by 3) and at Cal aren't terrible losses. The schedule gives them an opportunity for redemption with a trip to Cameron Indoor and the Dukies...but it is just as likely a stern national showing of how NIT-at-best the 'Clones are in 2010. For the same reason as above with the Sooners, they stay above the cut-line, but they are a distant 10th in my estimation - a true long shot.
The BAD:
Colorado has always seemed a sleeping giant to me. Unfortunately no one woke them up again this year. Perhaps Chauncey Billups has a year of eligibility hiding somewhere... They showed a little fight early, hanging real tough with Gonzaga and Arizona over in Maui. Since then they have been blasted by 15 by Colorado State and by 25 at Tulsa. There is a good chance they are no better than the third or fourth best team in a basketball-light state (Northen Colorado and Denver).
Nebraska seems to pile 10 or 11 non-conference wins up every year. Just enough to keep them in that "if they win 4 of their last 5 they have a bubble shot" discussion every year. We;re not falling for it. They have two solid wins; USC and Tulsa. As a matter of fact, glancing over their resume, I get the feeling if they could just squeeze eight wins out in conference play....
Ah, forget it.
Final Score:
Texas and Kansas are #1 seeds in March. I just can't see anyone closing the gap enough to push either of them out. Kansas State feels like a Top 4 seed as well, and definitely no worse than a solid tourney team. This is the only conference in the country with two legit national champion contenders (Yes, the Big Ten and Big East could. But No one in the stratosphere of KU and UT though.)
It will be a rocky ride on the bubble all year in the middle of the pack. Like many conferences of this high caliber, parity will smack around the pack. That said, I like Baylor, Missouri and A&M to dance. Oklahoma is still a quality sleeper to watch and Oklahoma State and Texas Tech should get in if the can stay north of .500. In doing that, they'd knock off one of the other's above.
The Big 12 should factor no worse than the 4th best RPI conference overall, and most likely Texas and Kansas should push them to #2 or #3. That should be good enough for 6 bids in March, though seven isn't out of the question.
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Saturday's Picks
The Maniac looks to continue a blistering start on a loaded college hoops Saturday. Quick Picks below. As always, we of course don't condone gambling in any manner. However, if one were to gamble, I'd like to point out we are over 65% ATS on the season...
Michigan +20 @ Kansas - Kansas hasn't been tested in a month, Michigan has failed every test in 2009's early going. It seems to point in the Jayhawks favor, but I think Michigan hangs around enough to cover.
Mississippi St -3 @ Houston - Missisippi State has quietly begun to find their stride. Houston has been good at times this season, but the Bulldogs are too talented to fall tonight.
North Carolina +6.5 @ Texas - It is difficult to say how either team will react to cavernous Cowboys Stadium, but I do feel confident that the Tarheels will not be overwhelmed by the environment. They have already played Ohio State and Syracuse in MSG, and played Kentucky at Rupp. Plus, the Heels are no jumpshot dependant, preferring to penetrate and take advantage of their quickness and the size of their deep frontline. I think Texas is a Final Four team, but I think UNC might be a little more ready at this juncture of the season.
Virginia Commonwealth -4 @ Tulane - I like VCU with ease, perhaps Vegas sees something in the Green Wave that The Maniac hasn't... Gimme the Rams to cover by double digits.
Temple +4.5 @ Georgetown - It is dangerous to pick all road teams with your picks, but I don't care. Seton Hall is this year's Providence; good in the early going with a great record built against inferior competition. Temple however has played as good a slate as anyone in the country and is sitting at 8-2. I think they not only cover, but get the win over Jeremy Hazell and the Pirates.
South Carolina -2 @ Wofford - Another road game, and I originally thought this line was a typo. It isn't. Jump on the Cocks ("ladies" said in my creepiest voice). Wofford is not terrible, but SC is in a whole different category in terms of offensive ability and athleticism.
Michigan +20 @ Kansas - Kansas hasn't been tested in a month, Michigan has failed every test in 2009's early going. It seems to point in the Jayhawks favor, but I think Michigan hangs around enough to cover.
Mississippi St -3 @ Houston - Missisippi State has quietly begun to find their stride. Houston has been good at times this season, but the Bulldogs are too talented to fall tonight.
North Carolina +6.5 @ Texas - It is difficult to say how either team will react to cavernous Cowboys Stadium, but I do feel confident that the Tarheels will not be overwhelmed by the environment. They have already played Ohio State and Syracuse in MSG, and played Kentucky at Rupp. Plus, the Heels are no jumpshot dependant, preferring to penetrate and take advantage of their quickness and the size of their deep frontline. I think Texas is a Final Four team, but I think UNC might be a little more ready at this juncture of the season.
Virginia Commonwealth -4 @ Tulane - I like VCU with ease, perhaps Vegas sees something in the Green Wave that The Maniac hasn't... Gimme the Rams to cover by double digits.
Temple +4.5 @ Georgetown - It is dangerous to pick all road teams with your picks, but I don't care. Seton Hall is this year's Providence; good in the early going with a great record built against inferior competition. Temple however has played as good a slate as anyone in the country and is sitting at 8-2. I think they not only cover, but get the win over Jeremy Hazell and the Pirates.
South Carolina -2 @ Wofford - Another road game, and I originally thought this line was a typo. It isn't. Jump on the Cocks ("ladies" said in my creepiest voice). Wofford is not terrible, but SC is in a whole different category in terms of offensive ability and athleticism.
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The Most Wonderful Time of the Year
I am an unabashed lover of the college hoops so-called "pre-season." It is one of the rare sports that grants us a true gauge of exactly where so many teams are in regards to their ability to compete on a national scale. Even better, this weekend also has tremendous impact on where teams will seed into the greatest three weeks in American sports.
If anyone questions the bountiful harvest and splendor of December hoops, I challenge you to sit down and watch a handful of tomorrow's dozen-plus standout games.
Here is a quick rundown of the highlights. The fearless Maniac picks (22-13-1 ATS) will follow in a separate column.
NOON:
Michigan @ Kansas - The Wolverines have to rank among the nation's most disappointing teams so far in 2009. A win in Kansas would completely erase that disappointment. But they aren't getting it. John Beilein's squad will at least give Kansas a athletically competitive game, something they haven't had since the opener against Memphis.
2:00 PM:
North Carolina @ Texas - A matchup of two of the nation's elite teams in an intimate gathering of 80,000 of your closest friends. Cowboys Stadium hosts its inaugural basketball game in a tune-up for Final Fours to come. Both teams today could be visiting a Final Four much sooner; as in this year. This game is a great litmus test for the Longhorns and a fourth BIGtime game for the becoming-battle-tested Heels. Regardless of the score, it is an interesting way to gear up for a hopeful appearance in Indy this April playing in such a cavernous shooters backdrop.
Xavier @ Butler - Two of the best Non-BCS teams square off for the second year in a row at 2pm. Butler won last year at the Cintas Center. This year Xavier tries to return the favor in historic Hinkle Fieldhouse. A win would be big for both schools; avoiding a fourth pre-conference loss might mean even more.
UCLA @ Notre Dame - Um, this one ain't exactly Digger and Coach Wooden. UCLA is mired in one of the worst starts in school history, and certainly the worst start in the Ben Howland tenure. Notre Dame is 9-2, but their losses are to Northwestern (understandable) and Loyola Marymount (not understandable); both at home. Luke Harangody aimed to take the Irish back to the tourney in his senior campaign and can afford to give away few more games. UCLA however might struggle to win 10 games all year.
Stanford @ Northwestern - The Maniac's affinity for NW is long documented. This matchup means a ton to both teams, but the Wildcats have less room for error with a daunting Big Ten slate about to heat up. Regardless of the outcome, something tells me the kids on each team will turn out just fine...
Mississippi State @ Houston - This one is a really intriguing match-up. The Bulldogs have been playing well of late and are rounding into the team most polls had ranked Top 20 preseason. Houston gets a chance to earn some much needed respect for C-USA in their home gym. A really really good game most people will miss.
4:00 PM:
Gonzaga @ Duke - Another fantastic match-up, and a real treat for us true college hoops fans. Both of these programs represent everything that is right about college athletics, Duke the GIANT with even bigger academic requirements still remaining the model of consistency, and Gonzaga the out-of-nowhere school in the middle of nowhere emerging as a perennial power.
Say what you will about Coach K and The Dukies, but they duck no one on their schedule, even programs that have far more to gain from the experience than they do. Last year on this same weekend, Duke played host to another non-power conference power Xavier. This year, they welcome the Zags. Matt Boldin and Co. are hoping for a more favorable result than the drubbing the Muskies left with.
Portland State @ Washington St. - OK, not a classic great matchup, but an intersting game for Ken Bone's Cougars. Portland State has a history of upsetting bigger-name west coast foes. Last year they clipped Gonzaga, this year they nailed Portland fresh off their first Top 25 ranking in 40 years. Wazzou needs to bring their A-game.
6:30 PM:
Richmond @ Florida - Both teams grabbed some headlines with big wins early, both have settled back a bit with a loss. Richmond gets a huge opportunity to build a tourney at-large resume and increase the growing profile for the Atlantic-10. Florida isn't in a no-win situation; a win over the Spiders may not be sexy on Sportcenter, but could very well constitute an RPI Top 50 win in March.
7:00 PM:
Temple @ Seton Hall - Speaking of the A-10, how about the work the Owls have done so far. They get another shot tomorrow night at unbeaten Seton Hall. The Pirates have yet to lose, but haven't played anywhere near the competition that Temple has. Of course they'll get their chance when conference play starts, but something tells me they won't quite yet be ready for what Temple is bringing tomorrow night.
Old Dominion @ Georgetown - ODU has played a brutal schedule so far, and has suffered some losses. THey entered as a trendy pick to win the CAA, but it looks more like VCU is the team to beat (or William & Mary). Meanwhile the Hoyas have looked fantastic as Greg Monroe has continued to develop and their guards have played steady basketball. The Hoyas didn't look past Butler, and I doubt they'll overlook the Monarchs either.
8:45 PM:
Kansas State @ Alabama - Frank Martin's Wildcats have been one of the pleasant surprises of the young 2009 season. They were expected to be good, but they have exceeded even those expectations en route to a 9-1 start. Alabama is thought to be a second tier SEC team, but ask Purdue about the fight they'll give you on their home court. This shapes up to be one of the best games on a LOADED Saturday slate.
Creighton @ New Mexico - If KSU is one of the season's more pleasant surprises, than perhaps Steve Alford's Lobos are THE most pleasant. New Mexico hosts a struggling Creighton squad that is used to getting accolades that are beginning to go New Mexico's way this year. It will be interesting to see how the Jays hold up in The Pit.
10:00 PM:
Portland @ Washington - Will the PAC-10 please beat someone this preseason? Suffice it to say if the 3rd or 4th best team in the WCC takes down the Pac-10 favorite in their own gym things will have reached new conference lows. Not that a Huskie loss is out of the question. The Pilots decimated UCLA and took down a good Minnesota team before heightened expectations seemed to take a toll on them. Now that the Pilots are back playing the role of David it will interesting to see how they handle U-Dub's Golliath.
Today is a great day to have four tv's or at least some serious PiP or TiVo! Enjoy - and check back for some fearless pics against the number.
If anyone questions the bountiful harvest and splendor of December hoops, I challenge you to sit down and watch a handful of tomorrow's dozen-plus standout games.
Here is a quick rundown of the highlights. The fearless Maniac picks (22-13-1 ATS) will follow in a separate column.
NOON:
Michigan @ Kansas - The Wolverines have to rank among the nation's most disappointing teams so far in 2009. A win in Kansas would completely erase that disappointment. But they aren't getting it. John Beilein's squad will at least give Kansas a athletically competitive game, something they haven't had since the opener against Memphis.
2:00 PM:
North Carolina @ Texas - A matchup of two of the nation's elite teams in an intimate gathering of 80,000 of your closest friends. Cowboys Stadium hosts its inaugural basketball game in a tune-up for Final Fours to come. Both teams today could be visiting a Final Four much sooner; as in this year. This game is a great litmus test for the Longhorns and a fourth BIGtime game for the becoming-battle-tested Heels. Regardless of the score, it is an interesting way to gear up for a hopeful appearance in Indy this April playing in such a cavernous shooters backdrop.
Xavier @ Butler - Two of the best Non-BCS teams square off for the second year in a row at 2pm. Butler won last year at the Cintas Center. This year Xavier tries to return the favor in historic Hinkle Fieldhouse. A win would be big for both schools; avoiding a fourth pre-conference loss might mean even more.
UCLA @ Notre Dame - Um, this one ain't exactly Digger and Coach Wooden. UCLA is mired in one of the worst starts in school history, and certainly the worst start in the Ben Howland tenure. Notre Dame is 9-2, but their losses are to Northwestern (understandable) and Loyola Marymount (not understandable); both at home. Luke Harangody aimed to take the Irish back to the tourney in his senior campaign and can afford to give away few more games. UCLA however might struggle to win 10 games all year.
Stanford @ Northwestern - The Maniac's affinity for NW is long documented. This matchup means a ton to both teams, but the Wildcats have less room for error with a daunting Big Ten slate about to heat up. Regardless of the outcome, something tells me the kids on each team will turn out just fine...
Mississippi State @ Houston - This one is a really intriguing match-up. The Bulldogs have been playing well of late and are rounding into the team most polls had ranked Top 20 preseason. Houston gets a chance to earn some much needed respect for C-USA in their home gym. A really really good game most people will miss.
4:00 PM:
Gonzaga @ Duke - Another fantastic match-up, and a real treat for us true college hoops fans. Both of these programs represent everything that is right about college athletics, Duke the GIANT with even bigger academic requirements still remaining the model of consistency, and Gonzaga the out-of-nowhere school in the middle of nowhere emerging as a perennial power.
Say what you will about Coach K and The Dukies, but they duck no one on their schedule, even programs that have far more to gain from the experience than they do. Last year on this same weekend, Duke played host to another non-power conference power Xavier. This year, they welcome the Zags. Matt Boldin and Co. are hoping for a more favorable result than the drubbing the Muskies left with.
Portland State @ Washington St. - OK, not a classic great matchup, but an intersting game for Ken Bone's Cougars. Portland State has a history of upsetting bigger-name west coast foes. Last year they clipped Gonzaga, this year they nailed Portland fresh off their first Top 25 ranking in 40 years. Wazzou needs to bring their A-game.
6:30 PM:
Richmond @ Florida - Both teams grabbed some headlines with big wins early, both have settled back a bit with a loss. Richmond gets a huge opportunity to build a tourney at-large resume and increase the growing profile for the Atlantic-10. Florida isn't in a no-win situation; a win over the Spiders may not be sexy on Sportcenter, but could very well constitute an RPI Top 50 win in March.
7:00 PM:
Temple @ Seton Hall - Speaking of the A-10, how about the work the Owls have done so far. They get another shot tomorrow night at unbeaten Seton Hall. The Pirates have yet to lose, but haven't played anywhere near the competition that Temple has. Of course they'll get their chance when conference play starts, but something tells me they won't quite yet be ready for what Temple is bringing tomorrow night.
Old Dominion @ Georgetown - ODU has played a brutal schedule so far, and has suffered some losses. THey entered as a trendy pick to win the CAA, but it looks more like VCU is the team to beat (or William & Mary). Meanwhile the Hoyas have looked fantastic as Greg Monroe has continued to develop and their guards have played steady basketball. The Hoyas didn't look past Butler, and I doubt they'll overlook the Monarchs either.
8:45 PM:
Kansas State @ Alabama - Frank Martin's Wildcats have been one of the pleasant surprises of the young 2009 season. They were expected to be good, but they have exceeded even those expectations en route to a 9-1 start. Alabama is thought to be a second tier SEC team, but ask Purdue about the fight they'll give you on their home court. This shapes up to be one of the best games on a LOADED Saturday slate.
Creighton @ New Mexico - If KSU is one of the season's more pleasant surprises, than perhaps Steve Alford's Lobos are THE most pleasant. New Mexico hosts a struggling Creighton squad that is used to getting accolades that are beginning to go New Mexico's way this year. It will be interesting to see how the Jays hold up in The Pit.
10:00 PM:
Portland @ Washington - Will the PAC-10 please beat someone this preseason? Suffice it to say if the 3rd or 4th best team in the WCC takes down the Pac-10 favorite in their own gym things will have reached new conference lows. Not that a Huskie loss is out of the question. The Pilots decimated UCLA and took down a good Minnesota team before heightened expectations seemed to take a toll on them. Now that the Pilots are back playing the role of David it will interesting to see how they handle U-Dub's Golliath.
Today is a great day to have four tv's or at least some serious PiP or TiVo! Enjoy - and check back for some fearless pics against the number.
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Bracketeering - November 30th, 2009
I love Feast Week. It provides a glimpse into who is what more than any other sport. Unlike on the gridiron where we wait until bowl season to find out who a gaggle of computer's googled into the top spot, we get ample opportunities to see who can play. And who cannot.In this week's Bracketeering we have a lot of motion. Team's like Butler undid all the shedding of the "small school upstart" label with two losses and one "win" over UCLA at the buzzer. Tulsa seemed primed to take up the mantle of C-USA contender; then lost by 8 to Missouri State. Portland seemed destined to land on the Maniac's Rankings...until West Virginia changed their flight plan with a routine win in the 76 Classic championship over the Pilots.
Staying out West, Gonzaga moves very little in Bracketeering despite rocketing up the AP and USA Today polls; the reason? We already had 'em in the right spot.
Not that we got 'em all right. Or do now. But I'll take us over the polls that reward idle hands and big names more than tough losses and some scheduling gumption!
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FINAL FOUR:
1. Texas - They have slept walked through a few first halves, but have shown nothing to dissuade the Maniac into dropping them from the top perch. They have also been less tested than the rest of the Final Four; for now. They have an easy week, but face teams that will at least make them run in Long Beach State, and USC. At the end of the month it is game on with back-to-backers against North Carolina and Michigan State.
2. Syracuse - Nothing exceptionally noteworthy this week, the Orange earned this perch in MSG several weeks ago. They follow up their wins against Cornell and Columbia with a tough one with Colgate and Maine. Ah...now that's the Big East pre-con schedule we are used to! Next Thursday's (12/10) tilt with Florida is looking better and better every day.
3. Duke - Too slow? Too soft? How about too good. The Devils neutral court emasculation of UConn was impressive. It might be too soon to put them ahead of Kansas, Kentucky and Villanova, but to this point the Devils have done more.
4. Kansas - Each year there is a team I am slow to come around on. For some reason, that's Kansas this year. I know they are looking great, I know Collins has done a nice job involving the whole team, Alderich has looked great and Xavier Henry gives them the scoring punch from the 3. This team is built real similar to Duke 1992, with Henry playing the Grant Hill role. However, the only real game they played found them tangled with a yet-to-develop Memphis team. It will be another 3 weeks before we get to see the 'Hawks play a real game. Not sure how they are the near unanimous #1 in the polls when Syracuse, Duke and others have done so much more.
ELITE EIGHT:
5. Purdue - The gutty win over a very good Tennessee team speaks volumes about the character of this club. This team has one of the best, most cohesive and experienced Starting 5's in the country. Now the test for the grown-upversion of the Baby Boilers to find a few "babies" to round out the rotation.
6. Villanova - My take? This is about where the Cats peak. They have some nice close resume wins over solid competition, but the eye test makes them seem like they are in for a grueling, tough Big East slate. Syracuse, West Virginia and UConn are deeper and stronger. I think Georgetown, Cincy, Marquette will give them heck as well.
7. Kentucky - We've chronicled some of the Wildcats' early season struggles at length here, so let's just leave it at this: Play like they did against Miami (OH), Sam Houston State and Stanford and the Cats will lose two of their next three (UNC and @UConn).
8. West Virginia - They have played a few less games than most of the top teams, but their performance this week launches them up in Bracketeering. Yes, the wins are over Long Beach St, a solid and underrated Texas A&M, and Portland, but the way they won was impressive. This team shoots the ball well from the perimeter, passes it unselfishly and possesses the traditional Huggins' athleticism and pressure D. As Ebanks gets acclimated with the team, they will continue to get even better. Man the Big East is really loaded...again.
Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)
9. North Carolina - The Syracuse win really doesn't bother me. It is the fact they were tied with five minutes to go at home against Nevada that pushes them out of my Elite Eight. I still think once they figure out who is going to initiate the offense this is one of the five best teams in the country.
10. Tennessee - A one point loss to Purdue doesn't hurt their standings in my book. The lack of a PG does.
11. Gonzaga - Hard to believe the team that was underrated so long that they became overrated was unrated at the begining of the season. OK, that was a mouthful. Let's make it easy; with wins over Cincinnati, Wisconsin and a gutty 2-point loss in Chrysler Arena to MSU the Zags are really good. Will they stay this high in the polls? Unlikely. WIth December games that look like: Wake Forest, Davidson, @Duke, @Illinois, then a conference first three of: @Portland, @St. Mary's and @San Diego. Regardless of the outcome, that is a recipe for tourney-readiness.
12. UConn -Duke hammered them. They need a SF/SG who can create to be elite. However, don't let that fool you into thinking this team isn't very good..
13. Ohio State - Evan Turner is still #1 on my POY ballot, Ohio State is still a dangerous team who could win the Big Ten and make the short drive to Indy this April. Wednesday's Big Ten/ACC Challenge matchup vs. Florida State is a good opportunity to solidify their ranking.
14. Florida - I wasn't sure what to make of the nearly 20 point win over Florida State; then Florida State won three straight in the Old Spice Classic (including over a good Marquette team). Then they took down Michigan State on Friday and it is hard to over look the Gators at this point. Are they going to be a Sweet 16 team in March? I'm not quite sure of that. But I would be willing to wager they snap a two-year NIT streak this Spring. We are looking forward to next week's game against Syracuse.
15. Michigan State - I called them the most over-ranked team before the season's outset. Florida proved my right. I'd be stunned if the Gators are a Top Ten team this season. By the end of the year? Perhaps the Spartans will be; that is Izzo's traditional M.O. For now? It's hard to have them any higher than this. Of course, win tomorrow night against North Carolina and all is forgiven.
16. Up for grabs - I can't really put anyone a definitive step forward as each team listed has some great wins and a tough loss that makes them loom as a question mark (except for Georgetown who gets a "loss" from me for the 46-45 snoozer with Temple and the subsequent dodging). Cincinnati, Georgetown, Florida State, Marquette, Texas A&M, Washington (show me something this week @ Texas Tech, the 63-59'er over Montana goes in the "L" column in our book), Portland, Clemson, Miami(FL)
Closing In...
UNLV, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Memphis, Richmond, Oklahoma St,
Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on:
Rhode Island, Washington St. (6-0 with a 37-point win over San Diego yesterday), Xavier, Butler (tough losses, but still a Top-25 level team, Dayton, St. John's, Seton Hall, Northern Colorado, Northwestern, Baylor, Iowa State, New Mexico
FINAL FOUR:
1. Texas - They have slept walked through a few first halves, but have shown nothing to dissuade the Maniac into dropping them from the top perch. They have also been less tested than the rest of the Final Four; for now. They have an easy week, but face teams that will at least make them run in Long Beach State, and USC. At the end of the month it is game on with back-to-backers against North Carolina and Michigan State.
2. Syracuse - Nothing exceptionally noteworthy this week, the Orange earned this perch in MSG several weeks ago. They follow up their wins against Cornell and Columbia with a tough one with Colgate and Maine. Ah...now that's the Big East pre-con schedule we are used to! Next Thursday's (12/10) tilt with Florida is looking better and better every day.
3. Duke - Too slow? Too soft? How about too good. The Devils neutral court emasculation of UConn was impressive. It might be too soon to put them ahead of Kansas, Kentucky and Villanova, but to this point the Devils have done more.
4. Kansas - Each year there is a team I am slow to come around on. For some reason, that's Kansas this year. I know they are looking great, I know Collins has done a nice job involving the whole team, Alderich has looked great and Xavier Henry gives them the scoring punch from the 3. This team is built real similar to Duke 1992, with Henry playing the Grant Hill role. However, the only real game they played found them tangled with a yet-to-develop Memphis team. It will be another 3 weeks before we get to see the 'Hawks play a real game. Not sure how they are the near unanimous #1 in the polls when Syracuse, Duke and others have done so much more.
ELITE EIGHT:
5. Purdue - The gutty win over a very good Tennessee team speaks volumes about the character of this club. This team has one of the best, most cohesive and experienced Starting 5's in the country. Now the test for the grown-upversion of the Baby Boilers to find a few "babies" to round out the rotation.
6. Villanova - My take? This is about where the Cats peak. They have some nice close resume wins over solid competition, but the eye test makes them seem like they are in for a grueling, tough Big East slate. Syracuse, West Virginia and UConn are deeper and stronger. I think Georgetown, Cincy, Marquette will give them heck as well.
7. Kentucky - We've chronicled some of the Wildcats' early season struggles at length here, so let's just leave it at this: Play like they did against Miami (OH), Sam Houston State and Stanford and the Cats will lose two of their next three (UNC and @UConn).
8. West Virginia - They have played a few less games than most of the top teams, but their performance this week launches them up in Bracketeering. Yes, the wins are over Long Beach St, a solid and underrated Texas A&M, and Portland, but the way they won was impressive. This team shoots the ball well from the perimeter, passes it unselfishly and possesses the traditional Huggins' athleticism and pressure D. As Ebanks gets acclimated with the team, they will continue to get even better. Man the Big East is really loaded...again.
Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)
9. North Carolina - The Syracuse win really doesn't bother me. It is the fact they were tied with five minutes to go at home against Nevada that pushes them out of my Elite Eight. I still think once they figure out who is going to initiate the offense this is one of the five best teams in the country.
10. Tennessee - A one point loss to Purdue doesn't hurt their standings in my book. The lack of a PG does.
11. Gonzaga - Hard to believe the team that was underrated so long that they became overrated was unrated at the begining of the season. OK, that was a mouthful. Let's make it easy; with wins over Cincinnati, Wisconsin and a gutty 2-point loss in Chrysler Arena to MSU the Zags are really good. Will they stay this high in the polls? Unlikely. WIth December games that look like: Wake Forest, Davidson, @Duke, @Illinois, then a conference first three of: @Portland, @St. Mary's and @San Diego. Regardless of the outcome, that is a recipe for tourney-readiness.
12. UConn -Duke hammered them. They need a SF/SG who can create to be elite. However, don't let that fool you into thinking this team isn't very good..
13. Ohio State - Evan Turner is still #1 on my POY ballot, Ohio State is still a dangerous team who could win the Big Ten and make the short drive to Indy this April. Wednesday's Big Ten/ACC Challenge matchup vs. Florida State is a good opportunity to solidify their ranking.
14. Florida - I wasn't sure what to make of the nearly 20 point win over Florida State; then Florida State won three straight in the Old Spice Classic (including over a good Marquette team). Then they took down Michigan State on Friday and it is hard to over look the Gators at this point. Are they going to be a Sweet 16 team in March? I'm not quite sure of that. But I would be willing to wager they snap a two-year NIT streak this Spring. We are looking forward to next week's game against Syracuse.
15. Michigan State - I called them the most over-ranked team before the season's outset. Florida proved my right. I'd be stunned if the Gators are a Top Ten team this season. By the end of the year? Perhaps the Spartans will be; that is Izzo's traditional M.O. For now? It's hard to have them any higher than this. Of course, win tomorrow night against North Carolina and all is forgiven.
16. Up for grabs - I can't really put anyone a definitive step forward as each team listed has some great wins and a tough loss that makes them loom as a question mark (except for Georgetown who gets a "loss" from me for the 46-45 snoozer with Temple and the subsequent dodging). Cincinnati, Georgetown, Florida State, Marquette, Texas A&M, Washington (show me something this week @ Texas Tech, the 63-59'er over Montana goes in the "L" column in our book), Portland, Clemson, Miami(FL)
Closing In...
UNLV, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Memphis, Richmond, Oklahoma St,
Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on:
Rhode Island, Washington St. (6-0 with a 37-point win over San Diego yesterday), Xavier, Butler (tough losses, but still a Top-25 level team, Dayton, St. John's, Seton Hall, Northern Colorado, Northwestern, Baylor, Iowa State, New Mexico
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Wednesday's Fearless Picks
After a 3-2-1 start to the season (though the Maniac contends that Sherron Collins' extended absence made for a do-over...) we're back for some more bankable predictions.
GAME OF THE NIGHT:
Butler -5 @ Northwestern: The Maniac loves Northwestern. I'd love nothing more than to see the only BCS conference school to never appear in the Big Dance end that streak. However Kevin Coble's season ending injury is way to much to overcome in a loaded Big Ten, and way to much to overcome in a virtual season opener against a talented, experienced, and unlike many top teams who fumbled this week; comfortable playing together.
I think this is a lock. Lay the points, take the Bulldogs big.
Toledo +22 @ Cincinnati - The Cats will contend for a NCAA berth in the less-than-balanced BEast. However there is still a lot of feeling out to do between big man Yancy Gates and incoming frosh sensation Lance Stevenson. Some of that will be evident on the court tonight.
Cornell -3 @ UMASS - Cornell is fresh off an "upset" win over Alabama. UMass got beat by 18 at UCF. Both games are more telling than many opening season tilts. The Red can play and the Minute Men are still in the 15 year post-Calipari probation malaise.
Western Carolina @ Texas -24 - The Longhorns are the best team in the country and the Maniac's preseason #1. Not sure how or why this line is this close, it feels like a 34-37 pointer to me...
Season Record: 3-2-1
GAME OF THE NIGHT:
Butler -5 @ Northwestern: The Maniac loves Northwestern. I'd love nothing more than to see the only BCS conference school to never appear in the Big Dance end that streak. However Kevin Coble's season ending injury is way to much to overcome in a loaded Big Ten, and way to much to overcome in a virtual season opener against a talented, experienced, and unlike many top teams who fumbled this week; comfortable playing together.
I think this is a lock. Lay the points, take the Bulldogs big.
Toledo +22 @ Cincinnati - The Cats will contend for a NCAA berth in the less-than-balanced BEast. However there is still a lot of feeling out to do between big man Yancy Gates and incoming frosh sensation Lance Stevenson. Some of that will be evident on the court tonight.
Cornell -3 @ UMASS - Cornell is fresh off an "upset" win over Alabama. UMass got beat by 18 at UCF. Both games are more telling than many opening season tilts. The Red can play and the Minute Men are still in the 15 year post-Calipari probation malaise.
Western Carolina @ Texas -24 - The Longhorns are the best team in the country and the Maniac's preseason #1. Not sure how or why this line is this close, it feels like a 34-37 pointer to me...
Season Record: 3-2-1
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Previewing the East Region
Best First Round Game: UCLA v VCU. VCU is the upset pick de juor with Eric Maynor and the Rams history of befalling traditional giants (See: Duke, also in an 6-11 game). However the viewing public seems to have forgot the track record of the Bruins. UCLA has been to three straight Final Fours and despite some heavy losses from last year, still has Darrin Collison at point and Josh Shipp on the wing. More than half the people in the massive ESPN pool have VCU pulling the upset, but I tend to think Vegas is a little smarter. They have the Bruins as a 7.5 point favorite - one of the largest spreads for any game not involving a #1-#4 seed.
Forget the "upset" potential, just sit down to watch two of the countries best little point guards go head to head.
Best Player: If you have a soft spot in your heart for memories of Grant Hill gliding gracefully for four years at Duke, wait until you get a load of Gerald Henderson. He struggled through the first month of the season, but since January he has been the best player in the nation. His silky shooting touch and defensive tenacity get overshadowed by jaw-dropping athleticism. His emergence as a true superstar gives Duke a legitimate chance to win it all.
Most important player(s): Let's get to the point. More specifically, the point guards. It is a commonly cited axom that guard play wins in the NCAA's. There are four teams that will go precisely as far as their guards take them. For Villanova, Scottie Reynolds makes the engine go. Likewise for Texas's AJ Abrahams. Duke's revolving door at the point finally settled on freshman Elliot Williams. How he and senior Greg Paulus handle their split duties will determine much of the Dukies fate. The same for another freshman, Xavier PG Terrell Holloway. Holloway has big "little" shoes to fill as he tried to replicate the Elite Eight run spearheaded last year by Drew Lavender.
Worst Seeding: Hands down, easily the WORST seeding job of the entire tourney was Tennessee at a 9. The Maniac had them at a #5 winning the SEC Tourney, and a #6 after their loss. This is a team that finished 10-6 in an albiet down SEC, but still a far superior conference to the ones played in by Butler, Utah State, and Siena. They killed themselves out of conference with a spectacular schedule, and finished the season with good momentum. Their reward?? A ludicrous #9 seed and a date with Oklahoma State. Win that, and Pitt looms in round two.
Toughest Break: Florida State did more than enough to earn a Top 4 seed, but by falling to a #5 they a toss-up first round game rather than a should win #4v#13. They match up with Wisconsin, a tam famous for frustratingly slow, controlled tempo basketball. The Seminoles are far better team, but this is a terrible matchup for them.
Possible 2nd Round Gem: Should Florida State survive the Badgers, Xavier v. Florida State will be an extremely high level 2nd round game. The one I am salivating over is Tennessee getting a shot at Pitt. It is a good matchup for the Vols, as they enjoy the sloppy and physical scrambling game. They are every bit as athletic as Pitt, if not more so, and can likely put pressure on their guards and cause some problems.
Easiest to Root For: If Gonzaga has become "America's Team" then the Dukies have become College Basketball's Yankees. For some reason the clean-cut Blue Devils inspire more ire than any other school. That said, it would be easy to root Binghamton today. Tony Cornheiser's alma matter makes their first ever tourney appearance with a chance to slay the hated Goliath. It ain't happening, but easy to root for I suppose. Don't forget, Duke needed divine intervention to hold off #15 Belmont in last year's opener...
Maniac's Sweet Sixteen Picks:
Xavier over Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen (Bruce Pearl's Vols stunning Pitt in Rd 2)
Duke over UCLA (UCLA getting over Nova)
Duke beating X for the second time in 6 years to advance to the Final Four
Best First Round Game: UCLA v VCU. VCU is the upset pick de juor with Eric Maynor and the Rams history of befalling traditional giants (See: Duke, also in an 6-11 game). However the viewing public seems to have forgot the track record of the Bruins. UCLA has been to three straight Final Fours and despite some heavy losses from last year, still has Darrin Collison at point and Josh Shipp on the wing. More than half the people in the massive ESPN pool have VCU pulling the upset, but I tend to think Vegas is a little smarter. They have the Bruins as a 7.5 point favorite - one of the largest spreads for any game not involving a #1-#4 seed.
Forget the "upset" potential, just sit down to watch two of the countries best little point guards go head to head.
Best Player: If you have a soft spot in your heart for memories of Grant Hill gliding gracefully for four years at Duke, wait until you get a load of Gerald Henderson. He struggled through the first month of the season, but since January he has been the best player in the nation. His silky shooting touch and defensive tenacity get overshadowed by jaw-dropping athleticism. His emergence as a true superstar gives Duke a legitimate chance to win it all.Most important player(s): Let's get to the point. More specifically, the point guards. It is a commonly cited axom that guard play wins in the NCAA's. There are four teams that will go precisely as far as their guards take them. For Villanova, Scottie Reynolds makes the engine go. Likewise for Texas's AJ Abrahams. Duke's revolving door at the point finally settled on freshman Elliot Williams. How he and senior Greg Paulus handle their split duties will determine much of the Dukies fate. The same for another freshman, Xavier PG Terrell Holloway. Holloway has big "little" shoes to fill as he tried to replicate the Elite Eight run spearheaded last year by Drew Lavender.
Worst Seeding: Hands down, easily the WORST seeding job of the entire tourney was Tennessee at a 9. The Maniac had them at a #5 winning the SEC Tourney, and a #6 after their loss. This is a team that finished 10-6 in an albiet down SEC, but still a far superior conference to the ones played in by Butler, Utah State, and Siena. They killed themselves out of conference with a spectacular schedule, and finished the season with good momentum. Their reward?? A ludicrous #9 seed and a date with Oklahoma State. Win that, and Pitt looms in round two.
Toughest Break: Florida State did more than enough to earn a Top 4 seed, but by falling to a #5 they a toss-up first round game rather than a should win #4v#13. They match up with Wisconsin, a tam famous for frustratingly slow, controlled tempo basketball. The Seminoles are far better team, but this is a terrible matchup for them.
Possible 2nd Round Gem: Should Florida State survive the Badgers, Xavier v. Florida State will be an extremely high level 2nd round game. The one I am salivating over is Tennessee getting a shot at Pitt. It is a good matchup for the Vols, as they enjoy the sloppy and physical scrambling game. They are every bit as athletic as Pitt, if not more so, and can likely put pressure on their guards and cause some problems.
Easiest to Root For: If Gonzaga has become "America's Team" then the Dukies have become College Basketball's Yankees. For some reason the clean-cut Blue Devils inspire more ire than any other school. That said, it would be easy to root Binghamton today. Tony Cornheiser's alma matter makes their first ever tourney appearance with a chance to slay the hated Goliath. It ain't happening, but easy to root for I suppose. Don't forget, Duke needed divine intervention to hold off #15 Belmont in last year's opener...Maniac's Sweet Sixteen Picks:
Xavier over Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen (Bruce Pearl's Vols stunning Pitt in Rd 2)
Duke over UCLA (UCLA getting over Nova)
Duke beating X for the second time in 6 years to advance to the Final Four
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The Dirty Forty
OK - Let's start with an explanation of this column, which will be a running feature through the last week of the regular season and conference tournaments.
The theory behind it is that there are essentially 40 spots available for the NCAA tournament. There are 34 at-large bids, and 6 BCS conferences, which in all probability will feature a conference tournament champion who would have earned an at-large bid anyway (I know, not always, look at Georgia last year... but also look at the last 20 years - back off dude.)
The reason for this article, I think many of our readers will find it interesting how LITTLE room there is for all the teams that are conventionally thought of as "in." By my calculation, there are 29 LOCKS, with another 4 or 5 pretty close to that category. That leaves only 5 or 6 bids truly in play this week.
Running through this list, based on your instinct and what you hear on TV and broadcasts, say out loud (unless you are at work, then just think your answer dumbass, and get some damn work done and dig our economy out of the toilet...) whether the following teams are IN or OUT.
Florida.
Providence.
Penn State.
Michigan.
Maryland.
Arizona.
St Mary's.
Boston College.
UNLV.
Utah State.
Minnesota.
Virginia Tech.
West Virginia.
Dayton.
Oklahoma State.
Texas.
Wisconsin.
Siena.
Davidson.
Texas A&M.
New Mexico.
Rhode Island.
Kentucky.
Well, if you said YES more than 10 times, there is NOWHERE to put them; unless you and Jim Boeheim want to expand the field.
And for the record, the Maniac did include Syracuse in the 29 LOCKS...
OK, onto Tha' FORTY:
Locks (in alphabetical conference order):
North Carolina, Duke, Wake, Clemson, Florida State,
XAVIER, UConn, Pitt, LVille, Marquette, 'Nova, Syracuse,
Michigan St, Purdue, Illinois,
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri,
MEMPHIS, BUTLER, CREIGHTON,
Washington, Ucla, Arizona St, Cal,
Lsu, Tennessee, Byu, Utah
That makes 29. Those in ALL CAPS are likely or possible 1-bid conferences; losing their tournament SHRINKS the 40 by one slot. So if, say, Butler were to lose, it becomes "39." You get the point... And YES, Creighton is a lock. NO, Siena and Utah State are not.
Very Likely (in order of solidity in field):
West Virginia, Texas, Penn State, UNLV, Dayton
And then there were SIX: (random order, but try to choose five from this list!!)
Providence, Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Rhode Island, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Northwestern, Arizona, Siena, South Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, Auburn, St. Mary's, Davidson, Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State.
If you are counting, that was pick six out of 23. It is not as easy as Vitale and Hubert Davis make it seem (by last count, both have 417 teams in this year's field).
I'll give you the Maniac Six tomorrow evening, with justification for each, please feel free to fire your arguments (and YOUR SIX) my way, or leave them as comments at the bottom of the entry. Just to get you started, St. Mary's and Arizona are on my list.
THE WHY'S:
For the five "almost ins" - Texas and West Virginia are pretty much no-brainers, but need to not have anything too too crazy happen like Oklahoma State or Providence go on a huge run in their respective conference tourneys and zip past them, or have a slew of disastrous small conference upsets. Both those two are pretty much locks. Which would make 31 now...
Penn State closes with Iowa; assuming they win that they will be 22-9 (11-7) and a solid 4th in the Big Ten. That gets you a dance card.
UNLV and Dayton have good records, play in undervalued leagues, but most importantly have marquee wins. Dayton has wins over Marquette, Xavier and an Auburn win that looks better every day. They close with a tricky game hosting Duquesne, and would feel much safer with that win secured and a win or two in the conference tourney, (especially with Rhode Island surging), but for now they are safely in the #8-#10 seed range.
UNLV has the BYU and Utah wins. but most importantly a win over Arizona and a road win over possible #1 seed Louisville in their hip pocket. That said the Rebels would be wise not to lose to San Diego State Saturday night...
That's 34. Let's say just THREE small-conference upsets or miracle runs happen. You then have THREE spots for the above 22 bubble mates.
Gotta love March!
The theory behind it is that there are essentially 40 spots available for the NCAA tournament. There are 34 at-large bids, and 6 BCS conferences, which in all probability will feature a conference tournament champion who would have earned an at-large bid anyway (I know, not always, look at Georgia last year... but also look at the last 20 years - back off dude.)
The reason for this article, I think many of our readers will find it interesting how LITTLE room there is for all the teams that are conventionally thought of as "in." By my calculation, there are 29 LOCKS, with another 4 or 5 pretty close to that category. That leaves only 5 or 6 bids truly in play this week.
Running through this list, based on your instinct and what you hear on TV and broadcasts, say out loud (unless you are at work, then just think your answer dumbass, and get some damn work done and dig our economy out of the toilet...) whether the following teams are IN or OUT.
Florida.
Providence.
Penn State.
Michigan.
Maryland.
Arizona.
St Mary's.
Boston College.
UNLV.
Utah State.
Minnesota.
Virginia Tech.
West Virginia.
Dayton.
Oklahoma State.
Texas.
Wisconsin.
Siena.
Davidson.
Texas A&M.
New Mexico.
Rhode Island.
Kentucky.
Well, if you said YES more than 10 times, there is NOWHERE to put them; unless you and Jim Boeheim want to expand the field.
And for the record, the Maniac did include Syracuse in the 29 LOCKS...
OK, onto Tha' FORTY:
Locks (in alphabetical conference order):
North Carolina, Duke, Wake, Clemson, Florida State,
XAVIER, UConn, Pitt, LVille, Marquette, 'Nova, Syracuse,
Michigan St, Purdue, Illinois,
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri,
MEMPHIS, BUTLER, CREIGHTON,
Washington, Ucla, Arizona St, Cal,
Lsu, Tennessee, Byu, Utah
That makes 29. Those in ALL CAPS are likely or possible 1-bid conferences; losing their tournament SHRINKS the 40 by one slot. So if, say, Butler were to lose, it becomes "39." You get the point... And YES, Creighton is a lock. NO, Siena and Utah State are not.
Very Likely (in order of solidity in field):
West Virginia, Texas, Penn State, UNLV, Dayton
And then there were SIX: (random order, but try to choose five from this list!!)
Providence, Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Rhode Island, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Northwestern, Arizona, Siena, South Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, Auburn, St. Mary's, Davidson, Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State.
If you are counting, that was pick six out of 23. It is not as easy as Vitale and Hubert Davis make it seem (by last count, both have 417 teams in this year's field).
I'll give you the Maniac Six tomorrow evening, with justification for each, please feel free to fire your arguments (and YOUR SIX) my way, or leave them as comments at the bottom of the entry. Just to get you started, St. Mary's and Arizona are on my list.
THE WHY'S:
For the five "almost ins" - Texas and West Virginia are pretty much no-brainers, but need to not have anything too too crazy happen like Oklahoma State or Providence go on a huge run in their respective conference tourneys and zip past them, or have a slew of disastrous small conference upsets. Both those two are pretty much locks. Which would make 31 now...
Penn State closes with Iowa; assuming they win that they will be 22-9 (11-7) and a solid 4th in the Big Ten. That gets you a dance card.
UNLV and Dayton have good records, play in undervalued leagues, but most importantly have marquee wins. Dayton has wins over Marquette, Xavier and an Auburn win that looks better every day. They close with a tricky game hosting Duquesne, and would feel much safer with that win secured and a win or two in the conference tourney, (especially with Rhode Island surging), but for now they are safely in the #8-#10 seed range.
UNLV has the BYU and Utah wins. but most importantly a win over Arizona and a road win over possible #1 seed Louisville in their hip pocket. That said the Rebels would be wise not to lose to San Diego State Saturday night...
That's 34. Let's say just THREE small-conference upsets or miracle runs happen. You then have THREE spots for the above 22 bubble mates.
Gotta love March!
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Players of the Weekend
The beautiful thing about college hoops is you never really know who and when the stage will be stolen. With just three weeks until Selection Sunday, the Madness got a great prequel with a handful of spectacular performances.
Player of the Weekend:
Grieves Vasquez recorded Maryland's first triple double in more than twenty years in leading the Terps to an improbable OT comeback victory over the Tarheels. Trailing by six with less than a minute to go in regulation, the Terps surged back with trapping D and clutch scoring; the final bucket to tie coming on a Vasquez drive with seven seconds to play. For good measure he blocked Ty Lawson's buzzer beater attempt and controled overtime for the entire five monutes.
Honorable Mention:
AJ Abrams looked more like the November All-American worthy version than the Abrams that showed up the past few weeks. With the Horns on the ropes and the season on the verge of slipping away, Abrams scored 15 points in the final five and a half minutes and shot Texas to a huge victory over arch rival Oklahoma
Gordon Hayawrd (Butler) - The sensational freshman upstaged the heralded Steph Curry netting 27 points in Butler's easy victory over Davidson. The bitch of "Brackbuster Weekend" is that is a lose-lose for the small schools. Butler wins, and "Davidson isn't that good." Meanwhile, for Davidson it is another strike in the "they can't hang with the big boys" column. Unfortunatly for the 'Cats, it means they better win he SoCon tourney in two weeks if they want to dance.
OK, off my soapbox - the point; Hayward and the Bulldogs looked great.
Player of the Weekend:
Grieves Vasquez recorded Maryland's first triple double in more than twenty years in leading the Terps to an improbable OT comeback victory over the Tarheels. Trailing by six with less than a minute to go in regulation, the Terps surged back with trapping D and clutch scoring; the final bucket to tie coming on a Vasquez drive with seven seconds to play. For good measure he blocked Ty Lawson's buzzer beater attempt and controled overtime for the entire five monutes.
Honorable Mention:
AJ Abrams looked more like the November All-American worthy version than the Abrams that showed up the past few weeks. With the Horns on the ropes and the season on the verge of slipping away, Abrams scored 15 points in the final five and a half minutes and shot Texas to a huge victory over arch rival Oklahoma
Gordon Hayawrd (Butler) - The sensational freshman upstaged the heralded Steph Curry netting 27 points in Butler's easy victory over Davidson. The bitch of "Brackbuster Weekend" is that is a lose-lose for the small schools. Butler wins, and "Davidson isn't that good." Meanwhile, for Davidson it is another strike in the "they can't hang with the big boys" column. Unfortunatly for the 'Cats, it means they better win he SoCon tourney in two weeks if they want to dance.
OK, off my soapbox - the point; Hayward and the Bulldogs looked great.
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Big Game Rundown - Wednesday Feb 4th
We are entering the final month of the regular season, and things are starting to take shape in the Big 6 conferences. Several teams have disappointed, but no one the experts were banking on to dance has eliminated themselves from the possibility (Notre Dame and Arizona need to win this week though...).
More than misfires, we have had a nice crop of pleasant surprises. Whether teams like Penn State, Providence and Northwestern can finish strong remains to be seen, but I imagine their fan bases can not be too disappointed with the seasons they are turning in.
Here are the biggest games that impact the bubble and seeding taking place Wednesday.
West Virginia heads to the Carrier Dome in a huge Big East battle. The Mountaineers are 4-4, while the 'Cuse is 5-4 in conference play. Neither one can feel too comfortable in their Top 8 position with Notre Dame and Georgetown lurking just a game behind. The winner tonight moves closer to locking up a dance card, the loser slides onto the bubble.
Notre Dame visits the Bearcats in the Queen City in an even more precarious game for both squads. The loser of this game (particularly if it is UC) is all but eliminated from tourney thoughts. Notre Dame is 3-6 in conference and 12-8 overall. A loss at Cincinnati would leave them with very little room for error. It is possible for a Big East team to slide into the tourney at 8-10 in conference. However, after UC, Notre Dame still has trips to UConn, West Virginia and Providence, as well as home games with Lousiville and Villanova. Throw in a non-conference trip to UCLA and it is getting late pretty early for the Irish.
Harangody needs some help to get the Irish dancing...
Wake Forest looks to rebound from their surprising loss at Georgia Tech with a trip to Miami. The Canes were ranked the first month of the season but are on the wrong side of the bubble as of today. A win over the Deac's could get them back on track to make a late season-saving push.
Utah visits TCU in a good Mountain West battle. Several polls have the Utes as one of the last teams IN the tourney. TCU has a smaller reputation but a similar profile and trails the Utes (and everyone else) by only one game at 4-3. Big game to see if the teams can start to seperate a little in the MWC.
Ok Providence, are you for real? If so, bring your A game when Villanova comes calling tomorrow night. Tournament teams defend their home court. Another blowout loss to one of the Big East Big Boys will crush their image (and really help Georgetown and Notre Dame move back into spots #8 & #9 respectively).
Tennessee once again looks like the best team in the SEC and the most legitimate threat to well-represent the conference in March. Arkansas has done dreadfully in conference play but seems to bring its best for the best teams. They better tomorrow night, as their spot on the "bubble list" is more just a shot in the dark since they own two colossal non-conference wins. All other signs point to NIT or worse...
Minnesota at Michigan State has nothing to do with making the tourney, rather it has national ranking and Big Ten champion implications. Michigan State has been surprisingly vulnerable at home, losing to both Penn State and Northwestern. With the Purdue loss tonight, a Gopher win puts them as part of the big log jam at the top.
And for your viewing pleasure, tune in at 9pm (with the TV muted) for the Clemson v Duke game. Clemson is legitmatly deserving of their #10 ranking at 18-2 with several quality wins. However, when I say "Clemson" what is the first thing you think of? Exactly. Hammered by Wake, Humiliated (intentially improperly capitalized) by Carolina.
It is hard to imagine the committee has different first impressions either. Clemson can do a lot to cement their reputation in either direction tomorrow night.
Can Clemson earn some respect against the Dookies?
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More than misfires, we have had a nice crop of pleasant surprises. Whether teams like Penn State, Providence and Northwestern can finish strong remains to be seen, but I imagine their fan bases can not be too disappointed with the seasons they are turning in.
Here are the biggest games that impact the bubble and seeding taking place Wednesday.
West Virginia heads to the Carrier Dome in a huge Big East battle. The Mountaineers are 4-4, while the 'Cuse is 5-4 in conference play. Neither one can feel too comfortable in their Top 8 position with Notre Dame and Georgetown lurking just a game behind. The winner tonight moves closer to locking up a dance card, the loser slides onto the bubble.
Notre Dame visits the Bearcats in the Queen City in an even more precarious game for both squads. The loser of this game (particularly if it is UC) is all but eliminated from tourney thoughts. Notre Dame is 3-6 in conference and 12-8 overall. A loss at Cincinnati would leave them with very little room for error. It is possible for a Big East team to slide into the tourney at 8-10 in conference. However, after UC, Notre Dame still has trips to UConn, West Virginia and Providence, as well as home games with Lousiville and Villanova. Throw in a non-conference trip to UCLA and it is getting late pretty early for the Irish.
Harangody needs some help to get the Irish dancing...Wake Forest looks to rebound from their surprising loss at Georgia Tech with a trip to Miami. The Canes were ranked the first month of the season but are on the wrong side of the bubble as of today. A win over the Deac's could get them back on track to make a late season-saving push.
Utah visits TCU in a good Mountain West battle. Several polls have the Utes as one of the last teams IN the tourney. TCU has a smaller reputation but a similar profile and trails the Utes (and everyone else) by only one game at 4-3. Big game to see if the teams can start to seperate a little in the MWC.
Ok Providence, are you for real? If so, bring your A game when Villanova comes calling tomorrow night. Tournament teams defend their home court. Another blowout loss to one of the Big East Big Boys will crush their image (and really help Georgetown and Notre Dame move back into spots #8 & #9 respectively).
Tennessee once again looks like the best team in the SEC and the most legitimate threat to well-represent the conference in March. Arkansas has done dreadfully in conference play but seems to bring its best for the best teams. They better tomorrow night, as their spot on the "bubble list" is more just a shot in the dark since they own two colossal non-conference wins. All other signs point to NIT or worse...
Minnesota at Michigan State has nothing to do with making the tourney, rather it has national ranking and Big Ten champion implications. Michigan State has been surprisingly vulnerable at home, losing to both Penn State and Northwestern. With the Purdue loss tonight, a Gopher win puts them as part of the big log jam at the top.
And for your viewing pleasure, tune in at 9pm (with the TV muted) for the Clemson v Duke game. Clemson is legitmatly deserving of their #10 ranking at 18-2 with several quality wins. However, when I say "Clemson" what is the first thing you think of? Exactly. Hammered by Wake, Humiliated (intentially improperly capitalized) by Carolina.
It is hard to imagine the committee has different first impressions either. Clemson can do a lot to cement their reputation in either direction tomorrow night.
Can Clemson earn some respect against the Dookies?The most underrated game of the night from a national perspective in the Battle for LA tomorrow night. UCLA and USC might be the two most talented teams in the Pac 10. SC fell off the radar early with a few losses, but is in good shape getting to the tourney. This game is about more than seeding and standings.
Two Big Big 12 games as well; Oklahoma hosts a reeling Texas A&M squad, while Missouri looks to move from "interesting tourney contender" to "lock" by knocking off the Longhorns in Austin. Texas seems to continue to be forgiven by the pollsters, but reall can't afford too many more "bad" lossess if they have legitimate hopes of earning a Top 4 seed in March.
Great slate of games, for complete BUBBLE IMPACT - visit our sister site (in progress) at TheThirtyFour.com
Two Big Big 12 games as well; Oklahoma hosts a reeling Texas A&M squad, while Missouri looks to move from "interesting tourney contender" to "lock" by knocking off the Longhorns in Austin. Texas seems to continue to be forgiven by the pollsters, but reall can't afford too many more "bad" lossess if they have legitimate hopes of earning a Top 4 seed in March.
Great slate of games, for complete BUBBLE IMPACT - visit our sister site (in progress) at TheThirtyFour.com
Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
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