Can't Win for Losin'

Some teams just can’t win for losing.  Such is life on the bubble eternal for Seth Greenberg and the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Mere days after a “season defining” and “resurrecting” win over the #1 Duke Blue Devils, what does Virginia Tech do??  Opens up their doors for the Boston College Eagles and get their brains beat in on their home floor.

Suffice it to say no one will be storming the court tonight in Blacksburg. 

Hello...hello...anyone?  Anyone wanna storm me tonight?  Guys?

Perhaps no two-game swing in college basketball better analogizes the entire season better than these three days in the life of a Hokie.  In a year in which seemingly no one wants to be the top-ranked team in the country, it also seems like no one wants to play their way out of harm’s way before Selection Sunday.

For every “crippling loss” there is an equal and opposite “season defining” win; and the roles are played intermittently by the same exact teams.  Quick – off the top off you head, are any of the teams I'll list statuses any more clear than the ubiquitous and arbitrary “well, if they______ in their conference tournament then _____”?

Virginia Tech, Boston College, Richmond, Alabama, Tennessee, Baylor, Colorado, Nebraska, Marquette, Butler, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, Southern Miss, UAB, Memphis, Wichita State, Missouri State, Colorado State, UNLV, Washington, Washington State, Georgia… seriously, is there really any difference?

While some might decry it, I’d contest that therein lies the true beauty of college basketball.  For all the conjecture and debate, there will be only one champion on April 4^th.  To find out who that team is, all you have to do is look up at the scoreboard. Until then your guess is as good as mine... well, almost...

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Ben Hansbrough is the Big East POY - and Two Picks for Tuesday

The college hoops world was abuzz this weekend debating the merits of BYU as a #1 seed.  After the Cougars impressive road win at 27-1 San Diego State, all anyone wanted to know was 'did they deserve to be in the conversation with Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, Pitt and Texas?'

We might want to add another name to that list.  The Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame boasts a senior laden club that shares the ball well, defends with solid team defense, and absolutely shoots the eyes out of the basketball.  Villanova caught the full brunt of all three last night; surrendering a staggering twenty 3-point field goals in a 93-72 defeat that wasn’t even as close as the lopsided score.  At one point in the middle of the second half, Notre Dame led 60-34 before a little lax defensively late in garbage time.

Is there a tougher guard in the country?

One thing I know for sure - Ben Hansbrough deserves to be the Big East Player of the Year. Forget the gaudy stats of Kemba Walker.  Take away some of the enormous point games Kemba put up prior to conference play, and you’ll see Hansbrough’s numbers are very similar – with a ton less turnovers and a TON less forced shots.   

Tonight’s 30 point, 10 assist performance against a Top 15 team was as impressive and individual performance as the Big East has seen this season – and yes, I’m aware Marshon Brooks hung 52 on these same Irish two weeks ago.

The Irish are still a bit on the outside looking in as far as the #1 discussion goes.  However , a few more performances like the one they put on tonight and it won’t be just the Irish eyes smiling – it’ll also be the Selection Committee’s.

Today’s Free College Basketball Picks: (excepted from the Maniac's Column for The Sports Geek)

Baylor Bears +2 @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears entered the season with high aspirations coming off of last season’s Elite Eight run.  Ekpe Udoh and Tweety Carter were gone, but with a stud freshman class coming in and LaceDarius Dunn returning things looked bright. 

Fast forward a few months, and things haven’t quite gone according to plan.  At 18-10 (7-7), Baylor is definitely one the bubble.  A loss at Oklahoma State would likely pop it; especially with Colorado’s upset win over Texas this weekend.

Baylor has been a complete wreck of late, dropping four of their last seven, including crippling losses to Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  In fact, in Big Twelve play Baylor is just 2-5 on the road.  In addition to the above losses, they also managed to slip in a loss at Ames to Iowa State.  Losses to those three teams don’t really help your case with the Selection Committee.

Oklahoma State on the other hand has no illusions of postseason grandeur.  Their role from here on out is simply to play spoiler, a role they played well at home against Missouri and Kansas State.  However, much like Baylor, it’s been a rocky few weeks for the ‘Pokes.  They’ve lost 4 of 5, though their losses have been a little more respectable than Baylor’s, having lost to Nebraska, Texas, Kansas and Texas A&M.

In Big Twelve play Oklahoma State has gone a solid 5-2 at home, while Baylor has gone a lackluster 2-5 on the road.  You do the math.  It equates to a pretty easy selection for Oklahoma State laying the two.

PICK:  Oklahoma State -2

Alabama Crimson +6 @ Florida Gators

If you would have told me that this game would have enormous NCAA Tournament implications, and for Alabama nonetheless, I would have thought you were insane.  After Alabama’s eight place finish in their holiday tournament that included losses to Seton Hall, Iowa, and St. Peter’s, it looked like it was going to be a LONG year for Anthony Grant and the Tide.

The Tide’s turnaround was nothing short of amazing, and they enter tomorrow night’s contest in Gainesville at 19-9, 11-3 in SEC play; easily clinching the SEC West, and tied with the Gators for the best record in the entire league.  The winner of tonight’s contest will be the presumptive #1 overall seed in next week’s SEC Tournament.

The Tide have won 4 of 5, 9 of their last 11, and more impressively 14 of their last 17 contests.  Simply put, the Tide are for real, and might just be the best team in the SEC.  Regardless of this game’s outcome, they have earned their spot in the Field of 68 far more than Georgia (and maybe even Tennessee).  Florida has also played very well after some early season disappointments.  The Gators have won 6 of 7, and an identical 14 of 17 overall.

Alabama’s three conference losses all came on the road; Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Mississippi.  Florida’s three losses were a mixed bag, with two on the road (Mississippi State and this weekend’s Kentucky loss at Rupp), and their ‘mulligan’; an early season loss hosting South Carolina.

Both teams have a ton to play for.  Despite the Gator’s home court advantage, I’m not quite willing to lay a full six points.  Of the Tide’s three losses, none were by more than five points.  Of the Gators eleven wins, only three were by double-digits.

This game has all the makings of a true ‘Battle for First Place’ classic.  I think Florida squeaks out a win, but love the Tide taking ‘em on a ride first.

PICK:  Alabama Crimson Tide +6

Showdown Saturday in College Hoops -

How big is today’s BYU at San Diego State game?  CBS bought the rights to televise the game nationally.  From it own affiliate, CBS College Sports! 

Yes, Jimmer-Mania is about to take center stage nationally this afternoon at 2PM Eastern, 11AM local time, when two of the nation’s top teams battle for Mountain West supremacy.  BYU took the first contest at home in one of the three or four best college basketball games of the season.  Jimmer was simply stunning, netting an incredible 43 points an erupting onto the national stage and emerging as the leading candidate for National Player of the Year.

Oddly enough, it could be the same matchup today that derails that quest.  San Diego State is good.  REALLY good.  Their 27-1 record gets dismissed because of their conference (which is absurd, I’d take the top half of the MWC over the top half of the Pac-10 and SEC), but the truth is San Diego State is built for the NCAA Tournament.  They defend every bit as well as some of the more vaunted Big East and Big Ten stalwarts.  They have a legit NBA player in their front court in Kwahi Leonard and an underrated elite point guard in DJ Gay.

I think it is going to be real tough for BYU to win today in San Diego.  I like the Aztecs to run the table this season and capture a much-debated #1 in the NCAA Tournament.

Win or lose, just as CBS correctly gambled, I am going to be glued to the TV for what promises to be one of the most exciting and anticipated games of the 2010-2011 regular season.

Maniac's Pick:  San Diego State -3.5

Southern Miss @ UCF Knights -1

UCF was the early season media darling as Marcus Jordan, heir of His Airness, and company took the nation by storm, racing out to a 14-0 start and a #21 national ranking.  The ranking was the first in school history, and with a young ball club under first-year head coach Donnie Jones, the sky was the limit.

Then the Knights went Chicken Little; as in the sky started falling right on top of them.  Whether it was nagging injuries, fatigue, overconfidence, or just simply the fact they played a little over their skis for the first month; things got bad quickly.  The Knights lost eight consecutive games, all in Conference USA, and faded from NCAA Hopeful to ‘C-USA cellar dweller’ in the matter of three weeks.

The Knights have played much better of late, winning three of their past four games, including wins over Tulsa and a road win at then-conference leader UTEP. 

Southern Miss comes into the game with a ton to play for.  The Golden Eagles and Coach Eustachy haven’t gotten much run, but they are actually a legitimate NCAA Bubble team.  They currently sit at 21-6 (9-4 in conference).  With a strong finish they could slip in as a #11 or #12.  Their pair of close, heart-breaking losses to Memphis really hurt them, but the rest of their losses aren’t doing them much good either; Ole Miss, Marshall, Colorado State and SMU.  None of those teams are awful, and CSU is actually pretty good, but none of those losses qualify as “good.”

Southern Miss is is a talented team, and should be favored in today’s game.  But, they aren’t.  Hmmm….that makes this a pretty easy selection.  Give me the Golden Eagles roughing up an overrated UCF squad in Orlando.

PICK:  Southern Miss +1

Please, just one win...please.

Duke Blue Devils -4 @ Virginia Tech Hokies

If it feels like we’ve been in this spot before with Seth Greenberg, it’s because we have.  It’s becoming almost an annual rite of passage that a regular season game in March is vital for the Hokies bubble dreams.

If you’ve been following college hoops for a while, you know that those dreams have usually turned into nightmares.

Tonight’s game represents an enormous chance for the Hokies to finally get a quality night’s sleep on Selection Sunday.  With a win tonight at home the Hokies Dance ticket is essentially punched.  The crowd in Blacksburg will be a huge advantage for them as well, with ESPN Gameday and all the festivities than accompany it going on.  However, this isn’t Duke’s first rodeo and certainly not a new experience facing a hostile crowd.

The correlation I like to use is this: Remember the Kansas @ Kansas State game two weeks ago?  It was an “upset” but one that followed a predictable formula.  Elite team travels to road team who view them as their chief rival.  The home team has a less-than-great record due to some losses early, but has played very well the two weeks leading up to the game.  The home team was highly ranked at the beginning of the season but has since been forgotten about.  The “forgotten”, inspired, talented and desperate home team plays their best game of the season, pulls off the huge “upset.”

Fans storm the floor.  Chaos ensues.

You know the recipe.  That’s exactly what is cooking up in Blacksburg, the perfect storm brewing for a huge bowl of upset soup.  The numbers defy it, but sometimes the human element outweighs the statistics.  Gimme the Hokies in a valiant home last-stand not only covering, but handing the Dukies their third loss of the season.

PICK:  Virginia Tech +4
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Thursday's Stock Report

Consider this part two of the series, updated with some fresh Thursday results from a couple of very big games with bubble implications

STOCK UP:

Belmont - With tonight's win the Bruins moved to 24-4, and 16-1 in the Atlantic Sun.  The A-Sun is nowhere in the stratosphere of an at-large berthing conference, however, considering that three of Belmont's losses are to Tennessee twice and Vanderbilt - none by more than nine, and one could make a very compelling case for the Bruins should they fall in the conference tourney.

Arizona - Very quietly Sean Miller has done on of the better coaching jobs in the country, and has the Wildcats poised not only to return to the Tourney, but to claim a Top 4 (I have them as a #3 today) seed.  Tonight's 79-70 win over Washington State was a big one for Arizona, and a huge blow to the Cougars bubble hopes.


Alabama - Even more quietly than Arizona, Anthony Grant has done the most stunning reclamation project in the nation, and has guided Alabama legitimately back into the NCAA Tourney discussion.  Tonight's win over LSU is nothing to shout about, but the Crimson Tide's 9-2 mark in conference sure is.  While Tennessee and Georgia are tripping all over themselves, Alabama is making early season losses to St. Peter's, Iowa, Providence and Seton Hall seem like distant memories.  Unfortunatly the Committee's memories are pretty long...

It may be too much to overcome, but right now, I'd give the Tide the nod over Georgia.

STOCK DOWN:


Minnesota - Losing to Penn State is not a good way to impress the Committee late.  The 66-63 loss doesn't knock the Gophers out, but it does put them in a very precarious position with a lot of pressure to finish strong and possibly even win a few games in the Big Ten tourney.

Clemson - If you appear in the Maniac's "Stock Down" in consecutive editions, things aren't going well.  Tonight's 79-71 loss to NC State should pretty much seal the Tiger's NIT destination.



Richmond - Tonight's 73-53 loss to Temple was really ugly.  The Spiders still have life, but are dancing right on the fine #12 seed/NIT line.  Duquesne has to be thrilled with the lopsided defeat, and in the Maniac's mock bracket, they have officially slid ahead of Richmond in the pecking order.

Stock Up, Stock Down - Updating the VERY Fluid Bubble Picture

Selection Sunday is barely three weeks away and the scramble for position is starting to heat up.  Here's a quick recap of who helped their cause in the last five days and who is beginning to teeter.

STOCK UP:

Kansas State - The Wildcats saved their season Monday night with a convincing win over #1 Kansas.  Kudos to Jimmy Dykes of ESPN, who before the game said that if State had any chance of pulling the upset, senior Jacob Pullen needed to have a "Jimmer Fredette game." 

Pullen did just that, scoring a career-high 37 points.  The win resurects the Wildcats tourney life...for now.  Those two losses to Colorado are still a tough hurdle to overcome, particualrly if the Buffaloes can finish strong.

Boston College - I'm still not sold on the Eagles tourney worthiness, but their 76-72 win over Maryland moves them into much better position in the down ACC.

North Carolina - The Tarheels are still a Top 4 seed in the Maniac's book.  Their road win at Clemson all but assured them second place in the ACC, and put the final nail in Clemson's already weak NCAA chances.

Colorado State - Don't look now, but the Rams are one of the nation's most surprising at-large contenders.  I am not sure if the MWC can pull four bids, so it is imperative they keep pace with UNLV these last three weeks.  Saturday's win over New Mexico was enormous for CSU, and the final nail in Coach Alford's New Mexico Lobos' coffin.

The Rams still control their own destiny.  The host UNLV, and travel to BYU and San Diego State in three of their final five games.  Take two of those three and avoid any slip-ups and the Rams are in.  Easier said than done, but if you would have told and CSU fans the previous scenario back in November, I assure you they'd have taken it with a huge grin.

Temple - The Owls went on the road and hammered Dayton.  The Owls are all but a lock at this point, and have a shot at creeping as high as a #5 or #6 if they finish strong (which they seem to do every year).

Florida - We wrote about the Florida v. Tennessee game at length, so no need to rehash the ugliness.  But for Billy D, the Gators are nearing lock status.  With a stong finish they could creep as high as a #4, however with a tailspin they could slide all the way down to the #9-#10 range.

Memphis - Back to back wins over Southern Miss and UAB (Sat & Wed) all but clinch the Tigers as a tourney team in the Maniac's book.

St. John's - Lavin and the Johnnies got a huge win, 59-57 at Cincinnati Sunday.  ESPN has them as a #7 currently.  The followed up the win with a 80-68 win over Marquette - a huge win made even bigger by how much it damaged their fellow Big East bubble denizen's chances  We still have them holding in the #9 range - but definitely a tourney team barring a late collapse. 

Cincinnati - Yes, they lost in the aforementioned game, but the Wednesday pasting of Louisville moves the Bearcats into really good position to capture a well-deserved tenth bid for the Big East.


Virginia Tech - The Hokies are making a late surge towards finally ending up on the right side of the bubble.  Sunday's 102-74 win over Georgia Tech was an impressive offensive display.  Tuesday's pasting of Maryland moves them even closer, and they are beginning to separate them from the ACC bubble pack. 

Butler - The Bulldogs are making a furious rush to get back in the at-large discussion.  They've now won five straight, including wins over Wisc-Milwaukee, Wright State and Cleveland State to climb back to 11-5 in the Horizon League.


STOCK DOWN:

Duquesne - The Dukes tourney hopes took a devestating blow with Saturday's home loss to Xavier.  It isn't so much that the loss is bad more than it was the Dukes one great chance to earn a validating win that slipped through their fingers.  Despite their 11-2 A10 record, they still have only one Top 50 win to their resume (and eight losses).

Southern Miss & UAB - Both fell victim to conference bully Memphis this week; their respective tournament hopes might have fallen victim with the losses.  Neither is dead, but both have a huge road ahead of them, particularly Southern Miss who is nearing "must win the conference tourney" status.

Northern Iowa - Their at-large hopes gasped their last breath Saturday in their 18-point home loss to Wichita State.  The Shockers are looking good for March; the Panther will need to pull a shocker if they hope to Dance again this year.

UNLV - The Reb's missed a golden opportunity Saturday, losing 63-57 at home to San Diego State.  UNLV needs to finish strong to earn a third bid for the MWC (and hold off Colorado State).

Georgia - The Bulldogs Wednesday night loss to Vandy was a damaging one.  Georgia falls to 6-5 in the SEC and just 17-8 overall.  It's fair to say they MUST win one of their next two games; at Tennessee and at Florida to stay in the tourney picture.

This Year's George Mason Might Just Be George Mason...

George Mason left little doubt as to their tourney destination and status as the Colonial's elite tonight with an impressive 71-51 win over VCU.  George Mason is inching very close to LOCK status in the big dance, and could find themselves with a better seed than the #11 they drew five years ago en route to the Final Four.

For Virginia Commonwealth, the loss was absolutely devestating.  Four days ago, VCU was in decent shape for earning an at-large bid.  However, with back-to-back losses to Old Dominion and George Mason, they slide into third in conference, and with their considerably more sparse resume than the two conference front runners, it now appears their only entre' into the Dance will be to win the CAA Tourney.

Friday's Bracket Buster Challenge trip to Wichita State could restore a glimmer of hope, but even that is very remote at 20-8 (12-4).  For Mason (22-5, 14-2), their Bracket Buster trip to Northern Iowa is more a chance to bolster an already impressive tournament resume with another quality win.

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Singelton's Injury a Brutal Blow to the 'Noles Tourney Aspirations

Can the Noles survive his loss?

This isn't how you'd like the bubble picture to gain some clarity.

However, when Florida State's Chris Singelton went down today, so too might have the Noles teetering tourney dreams.  The swingman led FSU in points, rebounds and steals.   With his season-ending injury, an already suspect offense becomes downright decimated.

So too, unfortunatly for Nole fans, might be FSU's chances to sneak into the NCAA Tournament.

Despite Singelton's injury, they were able to hang on to an absolutely vital win, edging Virginia at home 63-56.  At 18-7 (8-3), FSU was edging towards "lock" status as the solid third team from the ACC, and leaving a four team pack including Clemson, Virginia Tech, Maryland and Boston College to jockey for two - possible even only ONE invitation.  However today's season-changing injury muddies the waters a bit.

It will be interesting to see how Florida State plays in their final five regular season games, as well as the ACC Tourney.  Don't forget the huge penalty the Committee levied Purdue last season after Robbie Hummel's injury - dropping them from a likely #2 seed all the way down to a #4.  Well, if Florida State's resume merited a ten or an eleven... by extension  of that logic, are they now in the NIT??

Their final five games are as follows: @Wake, @Maryland, Miami, North Carolina, @NC State.  Win three of five and all is well.  Drop three of five, and lose in the opening round of the ACC Tourney, and it is a likely NIT free-fall for Florida State.

Colonial Duel - Will Both End Up Standing??

Very, very, VERY under the radar, the most important game played in college basketball today took place in Richmond, Virginia in the always tourney-dangerous Colonial League.  Old Dominion captured an enormous win at Virginia Commonwealth to pull to within a game of VCU and George Mason for the conference lead.  More importantly, by earning the season split they are now easily ahead of the Rams in the at-large pecking order.

All three team now sit squarely on 20 wins, and all three are worthy of at-large invitations.  However, conference perceptions being what they are, MOST sites project only two CAA teams earning a bid.  That makes today's road win for Old Dominion the most important and influential win on a packed Saturday slate of games.

Old Dominion moved to 11-4 in conference, and 20-6 overall.  The Monarchs own wins over Xavier, Clemson, Richmond, and Dayton, as well as splits with conference mates VCU and George Mason.  Two of their other six losses were at Georgetown and Missouri.  They have only two bad losses; Delaware and Drexel (and Drexel also beat Louisville at Louisville this season).

VCU has fared well against a challenging slate as well, knocking off UCLA, but losing to Tennessee, UCLA, UAB and Richmond, as well as a bad loss to South Florida.  They are a game ahead of ODU in conference play at 12-3 (20-7 overall), but have yet to play George Mason.  Those two square off Tuesday in yet another enormous game, as the loser slides into a second place tie with ODU - and neither can boast the out of conference scalps the Monarch carry into Selection Sunday.

I didn't have a chance to watch the ODU/VCU game today - so here's a couple good links for a game recap.

http://www.odusports.com/sports/m-baskbl/recaps/021211aaa.html
http://bleacherreport.com/old-dominion-basketball

enjoy!

In the End, It's How You Play at the End

The NCAA Tournament is less about talent that nearly any analyst or fans realizes.  Most seasons, outside of five or six teams at the top and fourteen or sixteen teams at the bottom - the talent is pretty even.  The difference that separates the Sweet and Elite from the meat?  How you handle crisis, and how you function in end-game situations.

This is the precise and exact reason why the humble Maniac can already give you teams that are going to be upset prone and teams that will likely outplay their seed this March.  It isn't so much about the stats, but how you execute in situations where the difference between winning and losing is just a few scant possessions.

Some call it coaching, and I agree coaching is part of it, but another big part of it is in your player's DNA.  It's in your player's brains.  You can't fake cool and you can't fake smart when the bright lights start their One Shining Moment.

This is a broad generalization that SEC fans won't like much - but here it goes; SEC teams are good athletically, and with the exception of Vanderbilt, really, really, um... 'not smart'.  Sorry Wildcat fans, did you watch your Cats nearly WALK the ball up the floor, frantically calling for and then waving off a screen - all while DOWN FOUR with less than ten seconds to play?  By the time their shot finally clanged off the rim, the horn had sounded and Vandy won by four.  It wouldn't have mattered even if it went in, because they wasted ten seconds advancing the ball!! 

This is an excellent example of the AAU-style play that is prevalent this season in the SEC.  Poor ball movement, terrible end-game execution, lousy foul shooting and a poor understanding of score and situation.

I can't see any SEC teams making a real run at the Final Four.  With the exception of Vandy; all the teams simply play too dumb.

Contrast that with the exceptionally high caliber of basketball currently being played in the Big Ten and Big East.  The way Wisconsin and Ohio State both had complete control of score and situation - as well as never missed any clutch free throws, is a hallmark of two teams ready for March.  Ditto for Purdue.  There aren't many teams in the country I would feel more comfortable coaching than Purdue if I needed a bucket late. Purdue's two-man game of E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson, not just their scoring ability but the senior smarts make them a likely candidate for a deep March run.  Purdue's point guard play is a little less solid than their two aforementioned conference mates, but is still a squad with the poise, talent and smarts to make a run to the Final Four.

Is there any conference whose top teams will be more battle-tested than the Big East?   Nearly every game is an intense slug-fest between the top eleven (maybe ten, has Cincinnati really challenged many top teams??) teams this season.  Pitt and Villanova are two of the toughest teams in the nation.  Louisville has shown several occasions that they are capable of late heroics.  Georgetown and their spectacular backcourt are exactly what one looks for when filling out their brackets, and I have not seen any team in the country that shares the ball with the unselfishness of Notre Dame. 

The Big East will likely have six or seven teams receive Top 4 seeds, and frankly I could see any one of them, with the exception of UConn, making a run to the Final Four.

We will have a nice Monday afternoon Bracketeering Bubble Busting Edition - but for now, here's a quick list of stock up and stock downs from the Maniac's humble vantage point...

Stock Up (March BUYS):

Ohio State
Villanova
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Purdue
Duke
Georgetown
San Diego State

Stock Down (March SELLS):

Tennessee
Kentucky
Kansas State
UConn
Minnesota

Florida
Washington
Richmond (if they make it...)

HOLDS (Still getting a final read)

BYU -  (Yes, I have Jimmer-mania... but do they have enough help?  Can you box & one them and get the upset?)
Texas - (remind me a ton of Memphis 2008-09 - is that good or bad?)
Kansas - (hard not to like them, I've just seen them at their worst - USC, UCLA, Texas...)
Illinois - (McCammey needs to distribute AND score, not just the latter)
Vanderbilt - (smart, balanced - are the strong enough at point?)
Pitt - (can they score enough points?)
Louisville - (they've looked really good...but are they really good?)
North Carolina - (impressive over the last month, do they shoot well enough to advance deep?)

We Waited for This? End Game Confusion Dooms Vols to Loss #10

The logic for Tennessee was, hold the rope until Coach Pearl returns, then finish with a second-half flurry once Coach returned...

So much for logic.  With the game on the line, Coach Pearl strangely elected to let his team play.  In their jumbled confusion and panic, they may have put their NCAA Tournament hopes in jeopardy.

Tennessee had a chance to extend to a three point lead, but continued their dismal foul shooting and missed the front end of a crucial one-and-one.  Florida rebounded, got the outlet pass to Erving Walker, and the smallest man on the floor made the biggest play of the night.  Walker raced all the way down the floor, Tyus Edney-stlye, and scored a driving layup to give the Gators a 61-60 lead with 14.7 seconds remaining.

Tennessee looked shaky inbounding the ball and advancing it into the front court.  They appeared to be confused as to what set they wanted to run and whether or not a screen was to be set or waived off.  However, with two timeouts left in his pocket, Pearl elected to do nothing.  The last possession result ended up being a Melvin Going's step-back contested three pointer that clanged harmlessly away from the rim and sealed the Vols doom.

I agree Coach - Just call the TIMEOUT!!

The win, coupled with the Kentucky loss today, all but seals up the SEC East for the Gators at 9-2 and everyone else at least two games back in the loss column, plus the tiebreak edge from head-to-head wins.

For Tennessee, it is loss #10 - and right back balancing precariously on the bubble.  It is a particualrly tough loss to swallow, failing to get off a quality last second shot with timeouts in their pocket, and never getting the ball in the hands of their best shooter and scorer, Scotty Hopson.

The Vols now face near must-win games in their next two home games, against South Carolina and Georgia.  They own some simply fantastic non-conference wins; VCU, Missouri State and more importantly, Pitt and Villanova.  However, they have now lost three straight, have ten losses overall and are only 5-5 in the good, but certainly not great, SEC.

For the Gators, the win keeps them locked in to win the SEC, and continue their march towards being the Top 4 seed that every analysts picks to be upset in Round One.

February 9th National Roundup

So many teams, so few spots..

It's the time of year where there are about ten good games being played for every one you can actually sit down and watch.  Such is life in February for us college hoop die-hards, especially this year with the ubiquitous "soft-bubble."

Some of you might recall one of the first columns of the season talking about the relative lack of  strength nationwide.  It wasn't an early season exageration, I turned out to be exactly right.  However don't confuse "down year" with "boring year."  If anything, this year's final four week scramble might be the most entertaining pre-tourney finish we have seen in years.

Here's a quick rundown of the day's more important results.  A seperate series of columns will be devoted to specifically addressing each team's at-large chances.

Big East:

Georgetown, whom the Maniac liked as the best team in the conference heading into conference play has finally begun to reward our confidence after it looked tragically misplaced during the Hoyas 1-3 start in conference play.  Tonight they captured their fifth straight BEast win, taking down Syracuse in the Carrier Dome for the first time in eight years.  The win should escalate Georgetown back into the Top Ten and still in play for a #1 (but more likely a #2) seed.

Louisville has been the most pleasant surprise in the conference, and possibly in the entire country.  It was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and possibly even a NIT season.  However, Preston Knowles and the Cards have been fantastic.  It looked like they were on the verge of capturing yet another enormous conference win at Notre Dame tonight, until surprise BEast Player of the Year candidate Ben Hansbrough took over.  The senior standout helped the Irish force overtime, then spearheaded a 10-0 run to start the extra frame as Notre Dame walked away with a huge win.  The Irish, projected as a bubble team at best preseason are now a solid candidate for a #1 seed (though like G'Town, likely a #2 or #3) and have emerged as a nice darkhorse Final Four contender.

Marquette is nothing if not exciting.  Perhaps no team this season has lost more heartbreaking games to elite teams than the Warriors.  Tonight, in a game they should have won easily, they again showed their affinity for heart-pounders.  After trailing for most of the game, the Warriors eeked out a 59-58 win at South Florida, and more importantly kept the at-large tourney hopes afloat.  They are by no means safely in, but a loss to cellar-dweller USF would have been a crippling blow to their chances.

Meanwhile Villanova helped prove that ANY road game is a tough game in the nation's power conferences, dropping a 77-76 game at Rutgers that could come back to haunt them in their pursuit of a Top 2 seed in March.

Big Ten:

Ohio State has been the big story of 2011 as the nation's lone unbeaten team for more than two weeks now.  However, everyone else in the Big Ten has looked at times tourney-worthy (with the exception of perhaps Iowa and Indiana), and at other times simply terrible.

That rocky road continued tonight as Wisconsin had to fight for their lives to force overtime and eventually squeak out a 62-59 win over lowly Iowa. 

Michigan continued their recent solid play with a relatively easy 75-66 home win over Northwestern.  It is likely too late for Michigan to earn an at-large bid, barring a remarkable finish to the season, but the win tonight did officially put to rest any aspirations Northwestern might have held of snapping their lifetime streak of missing the NCAA Tourney.  Michigan moved to 15-10 (5-7) with the win, while Northwestern fell to 14-9 (4-8), making even an NIT bid look ambitious at this point.

Tomorrow has two more interesting and do-or-die Big Ten games when Penn State travels to reeling Michigan State and Illinois travels to Minnesota for a game that looks more and more like one that could vault the winner to the Tourney and the loser to the NIT.

Conference USA:

It may not happen, but I still contend this is a multiple-bid league, possibly as many as three bid merited even.  Memphis dodged an enormous bullet tonight in Orlando when Antonio Barton hit a three pointer on a pass delivered from his Conference USA freshman-of-the-year brother Will, with two seconds remaining to clip UCF 63-62.  The win keeps Memphis's bubble hopes strong, while for UCF any semblance of optimism from their 14-0 start have fully evaporated with their still-going eight game losing streak.

Meanwhile UAB passed their bubble-test with ease, handling their business with a 64-48 win at Marshall.  The win moved UAB to 17-6 (7-3) and should improve their already Top 40 RPI.  It was a good win for the Blazers, even it isn't an eye-popping one.  Marshall has already beaten West Virginia and Memphis this season.

SEC:

Florida ended any remote chances South Carolina might have been clinging to with their 79-60 win in Colombia.  The Gators moved to 19-5 (8-2) and are looking more and more like a Top 4 seed come tourney time.

Last night was a more action-packed evening for the conference, with Bruce Pearl's return spoiled with a 73-61 loss to Kentucky at Rupp Arena.  Tennessee might be the most difficult team in the field of 68 to seed (assuming they even make the tourney), as their record merits a low seed, but their stunning quality of victories (Villanova, Pitt, VCU, Missouri State, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Memphis) reads more like a #5 or #6 seed at worst.  However at just 15-9 (5-4) the Vols would be wise to avoid many losses in the final few weeks of the season.

Georgia is also a bubble-team, though they lack some of the huge resume wins of their counterpart in Knoxville.  They let a golden opportunity slip away last night, losing to Xavier 65-57 on their home floor.

Saturday is a huge day in the SEC, as Kentucky travels to Vanderbilt, and the Gators host the desperate Tennessee Volunteers.

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The Battle of Who Could Care Less

A good shout out to The Ben Folds Five... and an appropriate label for at least 50% of tonight's Memphis at UCF Conference USA battle.

To the best of my non-research aided recollection, UCF has a unique opportunity to be the first team in Division I history to both be ranked in the Top 25 and eventually finish 14th or worse inside their conference in the same season.  Tonight is yet another likely step for the Knights to solidify their historic achievement.

Four weeks ago?  This date was circled on the calendar; the battle for first place in Conference USA - a game not just to slug out who would win the league but also for jockeying for seeding position in the Big Dance.

Seven straight losses later, including a pair to East Carolina and a loss to Rice, Donnie Jones has to be wondering, 'will we ever win another game?'  To hell with 'can we still reach the NIT?'  He is trying to stave off one of the most bizarre and disappointing plumetts in recent college basketball history.

For Memphis, this game still matters a lot.  The Tigers didn't do themselves and favors dropping back to back games to Marshall and Tulsa, however their 62-58 win over likewise reeling Gonzaga was an enormous win, placing them right back on the precarious bubble.  The Tigers enter at 17-6, and having played an excellent non-conference schedule.  However at 5-3, they are tied with SMU for fifth place in Conference USA; not exactly something that endears a team in the Committee's eyes come Selection Sunday.

Memphis still has an excellent chance to make the tournament.  Although they are technically in fifth place, they are only one game behind conference "leaders" UTEP and Southern Miss.  As long as the Tigers can avoid another bad loss, their overall body of work should land them safely inside the Field of 68.  Tonight would constitute a very, very bad loss for Memphis.

Perhaps that's the most disappointing thing for Knights' fans tonight.  It isn't that Memphis will likely once again unceramoniously dismiss the Knights with routine fashion, and it isn't even that the season, for all intents and purposes, is over.  It is the fact that a win tonight would once again be an enormous upset, just like it has always been.  Despite the promise and attention of November and December the UCF Knights are once again double-digit underdogs to the conference bigboy Memphis, hoping to spring an enormous upset.

Just like last season.  And the season before.  And the season before that.  Yep, it's just like old times indeed, right back to square one.

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Storm of Trouble Bruin for St. John's

Last weekend the St. John's Red Storm were the toast of college basketball after absolutely humiliating the Duke Blue Devils on national TV at Madison Square Garden.

Not quite the homecoming Lavin hoped for.

One weekend later, on the same CBS national television spotlight, the good will the upset over Duke brought evaporated with a 66-59 loss to the sudeenly-bubble worthy UCLA Bruins.  It was a familiar sight for Coach Lavin, watching the Bruins walk out of Pauley Pavillion with a huge victory.  Unfortunately for Lavin, tonight he seated on the opposite bench.

St. John's would present quite an interesting case for the selection committee were the season ending today.  13-9 is certainly not a record that screams "at-large bid" however the fact that those thirteen wins include the blowout win over Duke, as well as wins over Georgetown, West Virginia and Notre Dame.  Most of their losses are quality as well, teams like St. Mary's, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville and Cincinnati.  However losses to Fordham and St. Bonaventure are potential profile killers.

After today, I have the Red Storm in the NIT.  Their next four games are a difficult and vital stretch in which anything less than 2-2 all but elimates the Red Storm from the at-large discussion.  Realisitcally the Johnnie's really need to go 3-1 to get back on comfortable footing.   Connecticut comes to town Thursday, followed by road trips to Cincinnati and Marquette - two games important not just for the Red Storm's profile, but also enormous in that they are games against the two teams they are most likely competing with for the last few at-large bids doled out to BEast teams.  To wrap up the two week's murderers row they get a visit from conference leader Pitt.

There is no doubt that Coach Lavin's first year has been a success, if for nothing else that revitalizing some excitement around the basketball program.  However, if forced to wager I'd bet the Johnnie's are still one year away from making their long-anticipated return to March Madness.

For UCLA, the importance of today's win is hard to overstate.  At 16-7 overall and 7-3 in the Pac-10, the Bruins are beginning to assemble an NCAA Tournament team's resume.  Other than BYU, it is UCLA's first real victory of note.  Aside from Montana, their losses are certainly not embarrassing; Villanova, VCU, Kansas (by 2), Washington, USC and Arizona.  However, it takes a few quality wins to get invited, especially given the overall poor non-conference play from the Pac-10 in 2010.

For the Bruins, they really are in pretty good control of their destiny.  They have five winnable games before a final three that will be fantastic; Washington, Arizona and Washington State; coincidentally the only three teams than have any at-large chances in the Pac-10 aside from themselves.

Ben Howland still have some serious rebuilding to do to get back on par with his three consecutive Final Four teams of the mid-2000's, but after today it is looking more and more like the Bruins won't be sitting out the tourney for the second consecutive season.

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Bayl-ed Out at the Buzzer

My spellchecker seriously hates my article titles.  My Mom doesn't understand them.  Yet, despite the obstacles I still continue to strive to provide you, my loyal readers, some of the most terrible puns and forced "clever" headlines on the web. 

Baylor picked up a critical win today.

You're welcome.

It is safe to assume the Baylor Bears are feeling some gratitude as well today after keeping their at-large hopes breathing with an overtime, last-second tip-in win at Texas A&M.

For Baylor it was an absolutely critical win coming off the surprising and disappointing loss at Oklahoma. For Texas A&M, it's their fourth loss in five games since cracking the Top 10 (no need to any clever headlines to say told ya' so... because, well... yeah).   It isn't quite panic time yet in College Stattion, but coupled with Kansas State's dramatic win over Iowa State on a Jacob Pullen game winner, things are getting a little congested in the middle of the Big Twelve pack.

Up next for Baylor is MUST win visit from Nebraska and then a trip to Austin next Saturday to take on the red-hot Longhorns. Texas A&M will try to get things back on track as they enter an enormously critical five game stretch that features only one team with a shot (unlikely, but a shot) to make the Dance in Oklahoma State.  Anything less than 3-2 puts them squarely on the bubble and makes closing with back to back trips to Baylor and Kansas even more daunting.

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A Goude, No Make That a Great Win

North Carolina fans certainly know Andrew Goudelock.  Hopefully NCAA Tournament fans will get to enjoy the same pleasure this March.

The College of Charleston senior star poured in 25 points tonight as his College of Charleston moved to 9-2 in the better-than advertised Southern Conference, hammering reigning champ Wofford (12-11, 9-3), by a score of 79-54.  The win completes a season sweep for CoC, and positions the Cougars well for earning the top seed in the SoCon Tournament.

College of Charleston has lost to some daunting foes, Maryland, North Carolina (in a game that looked like it could be a repeat of last year's thrilling upset until the final minute saw the Tarheels pull away), and Clemson.  However, with the weakness of the bottom half of the SoCon, and the Cougars relatively light schedule outside of the ACC battery, their RPI is probably too low (91st) to merit at-large consideration.

23.5 ppg, 4.5 assists and 48% shooting?  That's All-American numbers.

If you haven't seen Goudelock play, you are really missing out.  On the season he is averaging an impressive 23.5 points a night on an even more impressive 48.5% shooting.  Even MORE impressive than that??  The 6'2'' guard averages 4.5 rebounds, 4.4 assists and is shooting over 41% from behind the arc. 

As a hoops fans who has followed Goudelock's career the past two seasons, I hope the reigning SoCon player of the year gets a chance to bring his Jimmer Fredette light-esque game to the big stage of the Big Dance.  It will be a real treat to watch him try to emulate SoCon great Steph Curry for some potential opening weekend magic, and certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
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