We Waited for This? End Game Confusion Dooms Vols to Loss #10

The logic for Tennessee was, hold the rope until Coach Pearl returns, then finish with a second-half flurry once Coach returned...

So much for logic.  With the game on the line, Coach Pearl strangely elected to let his team play.  In their jumbled confusion and panic, they may have put their NCAA Tournament hopes in jeopardy.

Tennessee had a chance to extend to a three point lead, but continued their dismal foul shooting and missed the front end of a crucial one-and-one.  Florida rebounded, got the outlet pass to Erving Walker, and the smallest man on the floor made the biggest play of the night.  Walker raced all the way down the floor, Tyus Edney-stlye, and scored a driving layup to give the Gators a 61-60 lead with 14.7 seconds remaining.

Tennessee looked shaky inbounding the ball and advancing it into the front court.  They appeared to be confused as to what set they wanted to run and whether or not a screen was to be set or waived off.  However, with two timeouts left in his pocket, Pearl elected to do nothing.  The last possession result ended up being a Melvin Going's step-back contested three pointer that clanged harmlessly away from the rim and sealed the Vols doom.

I agree Coach - Just call the TIMEOUT!!

The win, coupled with the Kentucky loss today, all but seals up the SEC East for the Gators at 9-2 and everyone else at least two games back in the loss column, plus the tiebreak edge from head-to-head wins.

For Tennessee, it is loss #10 - and right back balancing precariously on the bubble.  It is a particualrly tough loss to swallow, failing to get off a quality last second shot with timeouts in their pocket, and never getting the ball in the hands of their best shooter and scorer, Scotty Hopson.

The Vols now face near must-win games in their next two home games, against South Carolina and Georgia.  They own some simply fantastic non-conference wins; VCU, Missouri State and more importantly, Pitt and Villanova.  However, they have now lost three straight, have ten losses overall and are only 5-5 in the good, but certainly not great, SEC.

For the Gators, the win keeps them locked in to win the SEC, and continue their march towards being the Top 4 seed that every analysts picks to be upset in Round One.

February 9th National Roundup

So many teams, so few spots..

It's the time of year where there are about ten good games being played for every one you can actually sit down and watch.  Such is life in February for us college hoop die-hards, especially this year with the ubiquitous "soft-bubble."

Some of you might recall one of the first columns of the season talking about the relative lack of  strength nationwide.  It wasn't an early season exageration, I turned out to be exactly right.  However don't confuse "down year" with "boring year."  If anything, this year's final four week scramble might be the most entertaining pre-tourney finish we have seen in years.

Here's a quick rundown of the day's more important results.  A seperate series of columns will be devoted to specifically addressing each team's at-large chances.

Big East:

Georgetown, whom the Maniac liked as the best team in the conference heading into conference play has finally begun to reward our confidence after it looked tragically misplaced during the Hoyas 1-3 start in conference play.  Tonight they captured their fifth straight BEast win, taking down Syracuse in the Carrier Dome for the first time in eight years.  The win should escalate Georgetown back into the Top Ten and still in play for a #1 (but more likely a #2) seed.

Louisville has been the most pleasant surprise in the conference, and possibly in the entire country.  It was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and possibly even a NIT season.  However, Preston Knowles and the Cards have been fantastic.  It looked like they were on the verge of capturing yet another enormous conference win at Notre Dame tonight, until surprise BEast Player of the Year candidate Ben Hansbrough took over.  The senior standout helped the Irish force overtime, then spearheaded a 10-0 run to start the extra frame as Notre Dame walked away with a huge win.  The Irish, projected as a bubble team at best preseason are now a solid candidate for a #1 seed (though like G'Town, likely a #2 or #3) and have emerged as a nice darkhorse Final Four contender.

Marquette is nothing if not exciting.  Perhaps no team this season has lost more heartbreaking games to elite teams than the Warriors.  Tonight, in a game they should have won easily, they again showed their affinity for heart-pounders.  After trailing for most of the game, the Warriors eeked out a 59-58 win at South Florida, and more importantly kept the at-large tourney hopes afloat.  They are by no means safely in, but a loss to cellar-dweller USF would have been a crippling blow to their chances.

Meanwhile Villanova helped prove that ANY road game is a tough game in the nation's power conferences, dropping a 77-76 game at Rutgers that could come back to haunt them in their pursuit of a Top 2 seed in March.

Big Ten:

Ohio State has been the big story of 2011 as the nation's lone unbeaten team for more than two weeks now.  However, everyone else in the Big Ten has looked at times tourney-worthy (with the exception of perhaps Iowa and Indiana), and at other times simply terrible.

That rocky road continued tonight as Wisconsin had to fight for their lives to force overtime and eventually squeak out a 62-59 win over lowly Iowa. 

Michigan continued their recent solid play with a relatively easy 75-66 home win over Northwestern.  It is likely too late for Michigan to earn an at-large bid, barring a remarkable finish to the season, but the win tonight did officially put to rest any aspirations Northwestern might have held of snapping their lifetime streak of missing the NCAA Tourney.  Michigan moved to 15-10 (5-7) with the win, while Northwestern fell to 14-9 (4-8), making even an NIT bid look ambitious at this point.

Tomorrow has two more interesting and do-or-die Big Ten games when Penn State travels to reeling Michigan State and Illinois travels to Minnesota for a game that looks more and more like one that could vault the winner to the Tourney and the loser to the NIT.

Conference USA:

It may not happen, but I still contend this is a multiple-bid league, possibly as many as three bid merited even.  Memphis dodged an enormous bullet tonight in Orlando when Antonio Barton hit a three pointer on a pass delivered from his Conference USA freshman-of-the-year brother Will, with two seconds remaining to clip UCF 63-62.  The win keeps Memphis's bubble hopes strong, while for UCF any semblance of optimism from their 14-0 start have fully evaporated with their still-going eight game losing streak.

Meanwhile UAB passed their bubble-test with ease, handling their business with a 64-48 win at Marshall.  The win moved UAB to 17-6 (7-3) and should improve their already Top 40 RPI.  It was a good win for the Blazers, even it isn't an eye-popping one.  Marshall has already beaten West Virginia and Memphis this season.

SEC:

Florida ended any remote chances South Carolina might have been clinging to with their 79-60 win in Colombia.  The Gators moved to 19-5 (8-2) and are looking more and more like a Top 4 seed come tourney time.

Last night was a more action-packed evening for the conference, with Bruce Pearl's return spoiled with a 73-61 loss to Kentucky at Rupp Arena.  Tennessee might be the most difficult team in the field of 68 to seed (assuming they even make the tourney), as their record merits a low seed, but their stunning quality of victories (Villanova, Pitt, VCU, Missouri State, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Memphis) reads more like a #5 or #6 seed at worst.  However at just 15-9 (5-4) the Vols would be wise to avoid many losses in the final few weeks of the season.

Georgia is also a bubble-team, though they lack some of the huge resume wins of their counterpart in Knoxville.  They let a golden opportunity slip away last night, losing to Xavier 65-57 on their home floor.

Saturday is a huge day in the SEC, as Kentucky travels to Vanderbilt, and the Gators host the desperate Tennessee Volunteers.

.

A Learning Experience, Minus the Pearls of Wisdom

Knoxville, TN:  January 11th, 2011

Tennessee entered SEC play, and the beginning of Coach Bruce Pearl's suspension with a hard-fought overtime loss to the Florida Gators.  There are certainly lessons to be learned from any tough loss, however I'm not sure the Vols learned the right ones.

Time after time in the extra period Tennessee took contested shots, over-penetrated into charges, and generally played horrendous offense; the eventual result was the 81-75 loss.  Down the stretch in both regulation and OT Tennessee had a chance to do something every good team needs to do before March; learn how to win on your own.  

It's something Coach K has done artfully for decades down in Durham.  Early in every season, at a time his team hits a rough patch and momentum begins to turn, when the crowd becomes hostile and panic starts to set in as the game begins to slip away, Coach K folds his hands... and does nothing.  Dick Vitale goes hoarse screaming to "get a TO" but Coach never bites.  Sometimes, your teams needs to learn how to win on their own.

When Tennessee was faced with the first of many coach-less challenges this season, the response was less than encouraging for Vol fans; they shrunk, groused at officials, and unraveled.

Would Pearl on the bench have made the difference?  Honestly, in a game that went to overtime and a single quality possession could have made the difference, absolutely they win that game with Coach Pearl.  And it's not going to get easier for the Vols with a really good Vandy team coming to Knoxville Saturday looking to bury the Vols early behind an 0-2 start in the hyper-competitve SEC East.

Now for my favorite play, "Did you know I'm rich?"

Should Pearl even be sitting out at all?  It's an interesting question - one for an entirely different column one of these days.  But, for argument's sake consider this precedent:  Last year the NCAA suspended Dez Bryant for the entire season for lying to the NCAA.  The kicker?  What he lied about wasn't even a major infraction.  The draconian penalty was strictly for the lie.

The other kicker?  He is a kid.  Bruce Pearl, like Bryant's former coach, is "40" and a "grown man."  Quite simply - he should, and probably did, know better.  That knowledge is essentially incumbent upon his position as a leader and prominent figure earning seven-figures at Tennessee's largest state run university..

So while the Vols players' search for an identity not yet found in their incongruous 3-0 record versus ranked opponents overlaid against their 7-6 mark against those not, Pearl must search for a way to coach without "coaching."  Meanwhile Vol fans are learning important lessons in emotional balance as they ride the roller coaster, and UT officials are trying to decipher perhaps the most nebulous lesson; "how do we rationalize not firing this coach, because damn we really don't want to."  You see some lessons are learned on the court, and some are learned off - in both arenas I'm not sure Tennessee's players are learning the right ones...

Rocky Week in Rcky Top

It's definitely been a strange season already in Tennessee.  Bruce Pearl and the Vols off-court problems have recieved a ton of attention, but their performance on the court has been every bit as strange and erratic.

One week ago, one could have made a compelling case that Tennessee merited a Top 5 ranking.  No team in the country boasted a better pair of wins than the Vols ten point win over Villanova, and their not-as-close as the score seven point win at Pittsburgh.  Add in less impressive but still quality wins over VCU, Chattanooga and Missouri State and Tennessee's perfect 7-0 record carried a ton of weight.

So how do you explain the last seven days for Pearl's club?  The 89-82 loss to Oakland (of the Summit League, campus in Michigan, NOT "Oakland" Oakland...) made some sense.  Oakland has a good ballclub, and had already played fantastic in close losses to Michigan State and Illinois.  Their other three losses were to Purdue, Wright State and West Virginia; nothing to be ashamed of.  Tuesday's game, played only two days after a huge emotional dismantling of Pitt on the road, set up perfectly for the dreaded "let down" trap game.

Tonight's 49-48 loss to struggling Charlotte is tougher to explain away.  Charlotte entered play a distant shadow of last year's squad that contended for a tourney bid up until the final few weeks of the season, with a 4-6 record that included losses to Gardner-Webb, Coastal Carolina, Oregon State and Davidson.  Not only did Tennessee drop a second straight game at home, they finished with a point total that equals a normal half of play for the up-tempo Volunteers. 

So which team is the real Tennessee?  My guess is somewhere in the middle.  There is no need to panic quite yet in Knoxville, but it is fair to say some of the safety a good pre-conference slate of wins afford has slipped through the Vols fingers. 

The SEC East is as good as any conference in the nation, with Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt and Georgia all potential NCAA Tournament teams.  South Carolina, the presumptive last place team is no slouch either.  The West is off to a dreadful start, but Tennessee will have to make their way through a gauntlet to win that division.

For Vol fans, just buckle up and enjoy a rocky ride in Rocky Top.  With Pearl's 8-game suspension still looming, the uncertainty surrounding Tennessee is unlikely to fade for quite some time.

When the calendar flips to March, i expect the Vols to settle into the 5-8 seed range.   Nothing shameful in that, but with the heightened expectations beating two Top 10 teams before Christmas brings, it might be a tormenting season in Knoxville.

Games to Watch - Saturday December 11th

For those of you who have the college football "in-between blues," that odd period where teams dangle in limbo for two to five weeks waiting for their bowl games...all of which mean absolutely NOTHING save for one, saddle up for a fantastic day of college hoops that will bring it from noon until well after midnight.


Here's a quick overview of a few games worth catching or at least DVR'ing.

12:00 PM:  UNLV @ Louisville - Both teams are off to flying starts, undefeated and already possessing a few quality wins.  Tomorrow is a great opportunity to find out if Louisville's fast start is an indication they can compete in the loaded Big East and also an opportunity for the left half of the country to get a chance to see a very good UNLV team play.  UNLV has had the Cards number, beating them in each of the past two seasons (Louisville teams that were better, at least on paper, than this year's squad.)

This might actually be the best game of the day, a great way to kick of some hoops watching before lunchtime.  For the UNLV kids, it will be like playing a game at 9AM with the time change.  That's tough to do, and I think they'll come out a little flat and jet lagged.  Give me the Cards laying 3.5

2:30 PM:  Wisconsin @ Marquette - This game has quietly become one of the better rivalry games in the country over the past few seasons.  Both teams have a strong similarity in that it seems every season they are picked somewhere near the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, and sure enough, every year they exceed expectations and head to the Tournament. 

This year looks to be playing out exactly the same way.  Both teams enter at 7-2, with their losses coming against ranked foes and in close games.  Both have a few quality wins under their belt but can desperatly use another one before tackling conference play in the two toughest conferences in the nation.

Marquette will have the valuable home crowd advantage but I have a feeling Wisconsin has a touch more discipline and a little more cohesion and poise at this early juncture in the season.  Gimme the Badgers +1.

3:15 PM:  Tennessee @ Pitt - The Vols have been one of the season's pleasant surprises.  Tomorrow will be one of Pearl's last games on the sidelines before his oddly-arranged SEC-only eight game suspension takes effect.  Both teams are athletic and very physically tough.  I like Pitt at home in a really good ball game but nine points is a lot to lay considering this will likely be a game in the fifties or sixties.  I'll take the Vols and the +9.

4:00 PM:  Kansas State @ Loyola (IL) -  Odd line of the day.  not sure how K-State is laying only 8.5.  Gimme the Wildcats in a 20+ point romp.

4:00 PM:  Dayton @ Old Dominion -  The Flyers are reeling, despite their 7-2 record.  However, this is a talented and experienced club that should turn the corner soon.  Old Dominion continues their aggressive schedule with yet another hopeful tourney team.  I think the Monarchs win at home, but I'll take the Flyers +10.5

4:30 PM:  Washington @ Texas A&M - Texas A&M can land a clear blow for the Big 12 versus the Pac 10 with a win today at home.  Texas A&M is off to a good start at 8-1, however their only win of note came over Temple.  Washington has been carrying the banner as the only ranked team in the Pac 10, but it's hard to put A&M any better than sixth in the loaded Big 12.  I'm not sure if Washington feels any pressure to prop up their sagging conference, but a loss today is actually pretty damaging to league's overall profile.  I'll take Washington on the road, minus one and a half.

5:15 PM:  Indiana @ Kentucky - One of my favorite rivalries takes place today, and though much of the shine has faded over the past decade with neither school managing to be good at coinciding times, it still means a ton to their respective fan bases.  Indiana is in year three of the Tom Crean Era, and call me a hater, but it doesn't seem any real progress has been made.  Meanwhile in the Bluegrass it took Calipari all of half a day to bring the 'Cats from "NIT" to "Final Four" caliber. 

There's still a pretty big hill to climb in Bloomington, and I don't think today will be a step in that direction.  Give me Big Blue laying the thirteen points.

6:00 PM:  Arizona @ BYU - Sean Miller's Cats seem to be on the right track to erasing the memory of last year's rare tourney absence.  It had been nearly thirty years since the Cats were left out, and I'm sure Miller would like to put another thirty years distance in the rear view mirror.  A win today in Provo would go a long way.  I think they'll get it.  Gimme Arizona +2.5

7:00 PM:  Virginia Commonwealth @ Richmond - The sneaky gem in today's bursting schedule is this top-tier matchup between the CAA and the A-10.  Both schools have designs on playing in March, however neither league is notorious for collecting armloads of at-large bids.  Both schools could really use the chip today's win would provide. 

VCU's two losses are quality; Tennessee and to lesser extent, South Florida.  They also boast quality wins over UCLA and Wake Forest.  Richmond's losses are a little less solid; Old Dominion and Iona, however their wins are better; particularly the win over Purdue.

This should be a really good game, likely close, so I'll take VCU +8

8:30 PM:  Gonzaga @ Notre Dame -  The Zags are really struggling, and at 4-4 can ill-afford many more losses if they plan to continue their decade-long NCAA Tournament streak.  Notre Dame was one of the season's early surprises until Kentucky took some of their shine Wednesday night.  The line on this one is huge at 10.5, a number I think reflects a lack of confidence in Gonzaga rather than a ton of faith in the Irish.  I'm not so sure that either is warranted.  Give me Gonzaga and the points, and don't be surprised if they clip them straight up.

Maniac's Picks: Louisville -3.5, Wisconsin +1, Tennessee +9, Kansas State -8.5, Dayton +10.5, Washington -1.5, Kentucky -13, Arizona +2.5, VCU +8, Gonzaga -10.5

Jared Sullinger is a BEAST

Ohio State freshman Jared Sullinger poured in 40 points to help the Buckeyes remain unbeaten on the strength of a 34-14 run to close the game and quell the upset bid from IUPUI.  Sullinger added 13 boards but perhaps the most impressive facet of his performance of the year was that he racked up an Ohio state freshman record 40 points on just 17 shot attempts.

Sullinger was simply too much for the Jaguars to handle, battering the smaller front line into foul after foul.  he made the most of his free throw visits, connecting on 16 of 23 attempts.

Sullinger moves to the top spot of the March Maniacs freshman power poll, passing the unfortunatly and somewhat mysteriously) injured Duke point guard Kyrie Irving.

Moving into the second slot is do-everything Kentucky power forward, empahsis on the word "power", Terrance Jones.  Jones exploited Notre Dame's lack of atleticism, pouring in 27 points and 13 boards in the Wildcats impressive win over the Irish.  Jones is one of only three players in the nation averaging more than 20 points and 10 rebounds per game.

Sullinger not only is the top frosh, but is at the top of our POY ballot as well.

The rest of the rankings are as follows:

1.  Jared Sullinger (Ohio State)
2.  Terrance Jones (Kentucky)
3.  Kyrie Irving (Duke)
4.  Tobias Harris (Tennessee)
5.  Brandon Knight (Kentucky)

Too Much "Old" Not Enough "Spice"

"Old" was an apt description, but "Spice" seems slightly ambitious.  Perhaps the tournament would have more been more appropriately monikered "Old Must" or even "Old Diaper."  Yes, Notre Dame gets enormous credit for triumphing over a balanced field and stacking three very valuable preconference chips in their tourney-bid pile, but more than taking away 'Notre Dame is good' I think most of us college hoop die-hards took away a more sobering realization.

It's a down year in college hoops.

Pearl has lots of reasons for a "thumbs-down" but surprisingly his teams' play isn't one of them

This doesn't mean it won't be fun season.  It doesn't mean college basketball isn't still the purest sport available for mass consumption.  It simply means that in the ebbs and flows of history 2010-2011's collective flow might be more of a retention pond than Great Lake.  But it's not just the "Old Spice Classic."  While he well of competitive balance and parity remains full, the national overall quality of teams is reaching a low water mark.

If Duke beats Michigan State on Wednesday, and I think they will, it isn't unreasonable to start the "can they run the table" conversation.  They dismantled #3 Kansas State in Kansas City.  Assuming they do similarly to Izzo's famously slow-starting Spartans, it is fair to assume Duke will be the prohibitive favorite in every game remaining on their schedule.  Let's take a quick test....Close your eyes....

Is this Duke team in the same ballpark with 2009 North Carolina?  How about the Heels in 05?  Duke's 2001 team?   Therein lies the bigger story.  Its not that Duke is transcendentally great.  It's that so few other teams are even good.  Who is even close in the ACC?  North Carolina?  The Heels look closer to last year's NIT-status than they do Final Four contender.  Wake Forest and Georgia Tech have looked awful, both losing to teams well outside of the Top 100.  Clemson?  Their overtime turnover/bad shot-apalooza against Seton Hall could have set back basketball twenty years if only Cal hadn't beaten them to the punch.  Florida State?  In their first game against a reasonable opponent they lost to Florida (who was emasculated in their opener by Ohio State), scoring only 51 points in the process.

Boston College could make the claim as the only non-Duke bright spot thus far in the ACC, claiming third place in the "Old Diaper."  In truth, Boston College might actually be the best example of the glaring parity of mediocrity that plagues the ACC.  This is an Eagle team that has already lost games to Wisconsin (good loss) and YALE!  (um...not a good loss).  Glancing over that field, is it unreasonable to think Duke could run the table?  It's really not...

It's not just the ACC.  All around college basketball supposed power teams from power leagues are losing to the little guys.  It happens a few times every season and at least once or twice in March; the difference this year is that the little guys aren't very good!  Look, dropping a ball game to the Wichita State's and Murray State's of the world is no shame; those are good ballclubs.  Losing to Yale, Stetson (Wake Forest), Rutgers (Miami) or Kennesaw State (GA Tech) is.

Things aren't much better in the SEC.  Tennessee has been an early bright spot, winning the NIT by triumphing over a very good VCU team and a good Villanova squad (they also have quieter solid wins over Chattanooga, Belmont and Missouri State - kudos to Pearl for scheduling three "no-names" with good teams).   Vandy looks solid as well, with a good win over UNC and a very solid three-point loss to West Virginia.

OK, enough with the good.  Georgia, the trendy darling of the SEC coming into the season has disappointed, losing ugly games to Notre Dame and Temple.  Neither loss is shameful, it is their wins that raise a curious eyebrow after beating terrible Mississippi Valley State and Manhattan teams by only two and three points respectively.  Alabama and Auburn have contributed losses to Iowa, St. Peters, NC Ashville, Samford and Jacksonville.  Not to be outdone, LSU laid a nine-point loss stinkbomb to traditional powerhouse Nicholls State.

These are some pretty mediocre returns, and we haven't even dipped our toe into the murky pond of Pac-10 basketball or the abominable bottom half of the Big East.

The point is this; trying to handicap this season will be a near impossibility.  Teams #5 through #75 are as close as they have been in my recent memory.  Even good teams in 2010 are very flawed.  This season is going to be an absolute free-for-all.  We need to eliminate the terms "shock" and "upset" from the vocabulary for a while (I actually saw "Temple stunned by Cal" on a national sports website I will leave nameless...) and just enjoy the season for what it is.  Call it "parity" or call it "mediocrity" by March it will all sort itself out in three glorious weeks.  Until then, if I was a wagering man, I'd bet the under...

Good Day to Wear Orange

It's a good day to wear orange for sure, particularly if the orange is the trim on the white jerseys.

Tennessee and Oklahoma State secured their at-large bids today by knocking off the Top 2 teams in the country, respectively.  A few things showed through in the games.  One, Kentucky was impressive in the comeback, even though they lost.  Fortunately there are no road games in the NCAA Tourney, and seeing how Kentucky fans travel like mad it will never feel like a road game come March.  The second thing is that James Anderson needs to be on the list with Wall, Turner, Wesley Johnson and Scottie Reynolds for National Player of the Year.  I'm not saying he should win it, but he certainly deserves to be in the conversation.

The pair of losses raises an interesting question.  With #1 and #2 losing, suppose Purdue wins tomorrow at home against Michigan State.  Do voters have the cajones to vote a Robbie Hummel-less Purdue squad #1 in the country??  I think they don't. 

If Syaracuse gets the win over a tough Villanova team tonight at the Carrier Dome, expect the 'Cuse to be the nation's top ranked team on Monday.

If ALL FOUR lose, I really have no clue what voters will do.  Don't be surprised if the polls remain largely the same at the top, with only Nova and K-State creeping up...

As we say often, the best thing about polls is that strippers use them.  In college hoops, we settle it on the court, but the next few weeks are going to get crazyin terms of jostling for seeds.

Quick Picks - Feb 9th

It's a real good night on ESPN, nearly every game is an interesting and relativly meaningful one.

In the early game, I really like the way Vanderbilt is coming together and love their home court edge.  A win tonight gives them a stranglehold on second place in the SEC East and puts them a home-win over Kentucky away from making a heckuva case for a #3 seed in March.  Plus the loss to UGA over the weekend has to leave a bad taste in the mouth.  Gimme the 'Dores -3.

It's been a tough week for Oklahoma hoops with the off the court troubles following the surprising Texas win.  I'm not really sure how a team that has played as poorly as the Sooners is laying 6.5 to Texas Tech.  Give me the Red Raiders and the points.

Repeat after me, "no one wins in the Kohl Center."  I think I have finally learned my lesson.  Wisconsin's ability to hold serve at home, along with the Kalin Lucas injury and Evan Turner's rapid recovery have made for a real interesting stretch run to the Big Ten championship.  Give me the Badgers in a romp, sparking the beginning of the Illini's NIT-slide.

In the Big Ten clash tonight, I haven't seen definitively if Kalin Lucas is a go or not.  Obviously without him the Spartans are a much different team.  Purdue's ability to defend ball screens and pressure the ball without having to double is tough to play against at full strength; if you are missing your reigning Big Ten POY it is darn near impossible.  Give me the Boilers +3 tonight at the Breslin Center.  Purdue can force a four-way tie atop the Big Ten with a win tonight (Either Illinois or likely Wisconsin being the fourth, along with Ohio State).

MANIAC'S PICKS: 

Vandy -3
Mason +4
TX Tech +6.5
Purdue +3
Wisconsin -9.5

Working Overtime - A Chaotic Saturday in College Hoops

Just in case you needed any more proof that this year's tourney is as unpredictable as any in recent memory, with no clear cut favorites, take a quick sampling of some of this afternoon's contests.

Texas and Kentucky remained the nation's only two unbeatens, but you'd be hard pressed to call them the nation's clear two best teams.  For the second time this week Kentucky looked lackluster, struggling to put away a lower-echelon and NIT-at-BEST conference foes.  Today they let Auburn hang around until the final minutes before a few John Wall blow-byes sealed the deal.  They seem ripe for a loss, though to this point it has been the better teams have brought out the Cats' edge.  Perhaps it will be one of the lesser foes that get them (Arkansas?  @South Carolina?)  They have let Miami (OH), Georgia, and now Auburn play them tight for 39 minutes, yet handled UConn, Louisville and Florida with aplomb.  Lack of focus?  Perhaps it is simply parity, parity, parity.

Texas can let out a Texas-sized sigh of relief after dodging a bullet at home against Texas A&M.  The Aggies led for 39 minutes, all but the most important final one; before the Longhorns forced OT and gabbed the win.  This is not a new trend for the Horns either, as more than a few unranked opponents (though A&M is a good tourney-likely ballclub) hang around until the final few minutes.  Like Kentucky, they have brought their A-game for A-opponents.  The Horns better Monday when they visit Kansas State in Manhattan, or they will leave with their first loss.

The BEast continues to roar with seemingly every game being a fantastic gut-wrencher.  The season kicked off before the new year giving us a West Virginia over Seton Hall OT thriller.  Today?  Syaracuse wins by 1 at West Virginia, Pitt need OT to stave off Louisville (and remain 5-0 in conference), and Notre Dame gets clipped by two in their road upset bid of Cincinnati.  Only Villanova and Pitt remain unbeaten, and legitimatly 11 teams in this league are easily among the Top 65.  Will all eleven gets bids?  Of course not, but those last two are three are going to be one heck of a fight that will likely not be decided until Madison Square Garden.

Not wanting to be left out of the OT party, the SEC handed out an absolute thriller in Knoxville.  While one can debate the meritoriousness, considering the situation that derived the predicament, the Vols are undeniably becoming a team of national curiosity.  Not only are they a good story, they are also the hottest team in the country.  The orange surge continued today with a scintillating win over Ole Miss that took 45 minutes to decide.

Want some more parity?  Georgia Tech and Syracuse eeked out final possession wins over highly rated conference foes on the road (UNC and WVU), yet both have lost home games to unranked opponents in the past two weeks (in the 'Cuse defense, Pitt is Top-15 as of today).  

Clemson looked like world beaters against UNC earlier this week and again for 35 minutes today against NC State.  Then a 19 point lead evaporated into a "glad that desperation three came up short" three point win.  NC State beat Georgia Tech last week.  And lost to Florida on a 60 foot buzzer beater... Seriously, you figure out the ACC.  The only team that seems to be fully clicking is... Virginia?  Yep.  After an 18-point win over Miami (exposed this week much?  Wow.)  the Cavs are the only 3-0 team in the league.  Are they better than Duke?  Not a chance.  But it might be time to start paying attention to the Cavs in the wacky 2010 ACC.

What I do know about the ACC?  Teams are going to continue to pressure Carolina until there is some indication Larry Drew can handle it.  So far, so bad for the sophomore point guard.  The more the pressure turns him over, the more he seems to be pressing.  He really looked rough down the stretch toda against Tech.  It looks to me like Roy Williams is desperately searching for a combination that works, and will have to do it with the Heels unranked for the first time as of Monday (assuming voters have any sense at all...)

And what is going on in Boiler country?  Since writing my well-researched proclamation on the Boilers Final Four-worthiness, they haven't won a single game, going from undefeated to seventh place in the Big Ten in the span of ten days.  Tonight's loss at Northwestern isn't a back-breaker, but a number one seed is starting to slip away.  Michigan State handled their biz today, handing Illinois their first conference loss in moving to 5-0.  This puts Sparty a full three games ahead of Purdue (granted, they still play twice), and I find it hard to believe the committee will reward a number one seed to a team that fails to win their conference (other than the obvious 1-2 in the Big 12 and possibly the BEast).

Parity is running wild, in every conference large and small.  This week's Bracketeering is going to be based a lot on subjective matters and eye-ball tests and hypothesis and is sure to raise a few eyebrows and arguments.

Not that we'd want it any other way.

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

The Eric Gordon Theory and Volunteering

Take a good, not great team; think "Top 25-good." Then take away their senior co-captain. In addition, take away another three of their eight rotation players. Sounds like a certain recipe for disaster, right?

Not for the Tennessee Volunteers. A week ago it looked like Bruce Pearl would need to spend the remainder of the season explaining that "volunteer" only equated "community service" if is wasn't court ordered. Post season? Hell, who was going to post bail!

Then a funny thing happened on the way to the wayside. Tennessee didn't implode. They actually got better. Thursday night they hammered a good Charlotte team in their first test. Then they got a lot better. Like 76-68 over #1 Kansas better.

I think I can explain it too. Dean Smith famously said that for one game, the absence of a great player can actually be a positive as it makes you more unpredictable to defend. It is in the after where the problem lies. If that were true, it could explain the impressive Charlotte win. Either way, the quote never went as far as to address combing the campus for walk-ons in order to avoid a Hickory Huskers, "my team is on the floor" playing with four scenario...

Back to my explanation. I call it the Eric Gordon Theory. Our long time readers will recall several columns questioning the heart and hustle of the Hooiser's ballyhooed freshman several years back. I questioned his NBA readiness, his focus, basically his entire game. Then Kelvin Sampson's cell phone bill came due and IU dismissed the coach amidst controversy and NCAA heat. Things got worse, rumors, lots of them, began to surface regarding many of his teammates "extra-curricular" activities that were a little more serious than some underage beers. By all accounts, Gordon was a fairly reserved, polite, and non-drug using kid (all speculation - no factual evidence to substantiate my theory for my litigation-skewed readers...).

Maybe he was "pouting" and "losing focus" and "forcing shots" not because he was selfish and stat-hungry. Maybe he was just genuinely miserable. Think about it. You're 18 years old. Your coach and mentor was fired. Your teammates; your new family, engage in illegal activities you want no part of and that would jeopardize your NBA career. Ever since you were a little kid, you dreamed of playing for the crimson and cream of Indiana...

And this is what you get. You can't complain publicly because you'd be betraying your team, your school; your state. You can't; hold on, you won't quit. But you don't really want to play either. You just want this experience, this season to be over.

In Gordon's own words, excerpted from the Indy Star:

“Sometimes it felt like it wasn’t even a real basketball team because of all the turmoil that went on. I was just thinking about that the other day. It was so crazy that all that stuff threw off a good season and made it a waste, basically. It was really tough for us to be around each other all the time off the court because we were so separate.”

Of course, this my personal interpretation and you could argue me wrong... but I wouldn't budge. The Theory makes sense, and it happens more than us, the viewers, can see.

Here's how the Eric Gordon Theory applies.

Imagine you are a freshman or sophomore who loves basketball and is a decent kid. Believe it or not, there are a ton of them out there (go to a Kansas, Duke, Purdue, Gonzaga, Syracuse, etc game). Your senior leader and multiple teammates lead everyday lives where it is not just possible, but normal to get in a car with liquor, marijuana and guns with altered serial numbers. I get it; college kids drink and many even try smoking weed. It doesn't make them bad kids. The guns? Now we're getting serious. My Mom used to say nothing good ever happens after 2am. Um, make that double if you are high and packing heat. For lack of a more polite colloquialism, now we're talking some gangsta' shizzz.

Let's assume that with the four suspensions, the garbage has all been taken out. All of a sudden a cloud lifts and everything basketball; practice, road trips, hanging out with teammates, is fun again. The whole team begins playing and having fun, just like they envisioned when they signed their letters of intent. We can just play ball.

Amazingly, the results improve.

Does it make sense that a team loses four of its top eight players and improves? Not if the game was played on paper. But it isn't. It is played by real people with real lives and real ups and downs. Sometimes just wanting to be there makes all the difference.

On Sunday in Knoxville, after taking down the #1 team in the nation, there's nowhere else Bruce Pearl and his kids would rather be.

Article Research and Related Links:
http://www.wbir.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=109372
http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2008/12/eric-gordon-says-drugs-caused-problems-at-iu-under-kelvin-sampson
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/basketball/ncaa/01/01/tennessee.players.arrested.ap/index.html

Comments? Leave 'em below.
or visit us @ MarchManiacs.com

Good Day for the Pac-10

The PAC-10 showed itself well yesterday (UCLA excluded) after a dismal opening month.

USC recorded the conference's first victory over a Top 25 team this year. Read that last sentance again to grasp the rotteness of the conference's opening month. The Trojans hammered Tennessee in what can be considered the first real "surprise" or "upset" of the season, despite about 20 headlines for games that didn't merit it. (Examples: Wisconsin's home win over Duke, Portland beating a terrible UCLA team, Kansas State over UNLV (the most ridiculous of the list, K. State is better for crying out loud).

Then Washington absolutly eviscerated the Portland Pilots. The game was on long after most east coasters drifted to bed, but if you stayed up for the first eight minutes, you saw all you needed. The Huskies led by 20 in the first half, 30 early in the second half and cruised to a 36 point win that was never competitive.

It's a small step, but a much needed one as the Pac-10 tries to earn some validity before they begin playing one another for the remainder of the season.

A big day for the Trojans and the Pac-10

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Bracketeering - November 30th, 2009

Bracketeering - November 30th, 2009

I love Feast Week. It provides a glimpse into who is what more than any other sport. Unlike on the gridiron where we wait until bowl season to find out who a gaggle of computer's googled into the top spot, we get ample opportunities to see who can play. And who cannot.

In this week's Bracketeering we have a lot of motion. Team's like Butler undid all the shedding of the "small school upstart" label with two losses and one "win" over UCLA at the buzzer. Tulsa seemed primed to take up the mantle of C-USA contender; then lost by 8 to Missouri State. Portland seemed destined to land on the Maniac's Rankings...until West Virginia changed their flight plan with a routine win in the 76 Classic championship over the Pilots.

Staying out West, Gonzaga moves very little in Bracketeering despite rocketing up the AP and USA Today polls; the reason? We already had 'em in the right spot.

Not that we got 'em all right. Or do now. But I'll take us over the polls that reward idle hands and big names more than tough losses and some scheduling gumption!

Agree? Disagree? As always - let us have it. We can take it. Or at least delete your email.
We are only an email or comment away...

Share on Facebook

FINAL FOUR:

1. Texas - They have slept walked through a few first halves, but have shown nothing to dissuade the Maniac into dropping them from the top perch. They have also been less tested than the rest of the Final Four; for now. They have an easy week, but face teams that will at least make them run in Long Beach State, and USC. At the end of the month it is game on with back-to-backers against North Carolina and Michigan State.

2. Syracuse - Nothing exceptionally noteworthy this week, the Orange earned this perch in MSG several weeks ago. They follow up their wins against Cornell and Columbia with a tough one with Colgate and Maine. Ah...now that's the Big East pre-con schedule we are used to! Next Thursday's (12/10) tilt with Florida is looking better and better every day.

3. Duke - Too slow? Too soft? How about too good. The Devils neutral court emasculation of UConn was impressive. It might be too soon to put them ahead of Kansas, Kentucky and Villanova, but to this point the Devils have done more.

4. Kansas - Each year there is a team I am slow to come around on. For some reason, that's Kansas this year. I know they are looking great, I know Collins has done a nice job involving the whole team, Alderich has looked great and Xavier Henry gives them the scoring punch from the 3. This team is built real similar to Duke 1992, with Henry playing the Grant Hill role. However, the only real game they played found them tangled with a yet-to-develop Memphis team. It will be another 3 weeks before we get to see the 'Hawks play a real game. Not sure how they are the near unanimous #1 in the polls when Syracuse, Duke and others have done so much more.

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Purdue - The gutty win over a very good Tennessee team speaks volumes about the character of this club. This team has one of the best, most cohesive and experienced Starting 5's in the country. Now the test for the grown-upversion of the Baby Boilers to find a few "babies" to round out the rotation.

6. Villanova - My take? This is about where the Cats peak. They have some nice close resume wins over solid competition, but the eye test makes them seem like they are in for a grueling, tough Big East slate. Syracuse, West Virginia and UConn are deeper and stronger. I think Georgetown, Cincy, Marquette will give them heck as well.

7. Kentucky - We've chronicled some of the Wildcats' early season struggles at length here, so let's just leave it at this: Play like they did against Miami (OH), Sam Houston State and Stanford and the Cats will lose two of their next three (UNC and @UConn).

8. West Virginia - They have played a few less games than most of the top teams, but their performance this week launches them up in Bracketeering. Yes, the wins are over Long Beach St, a solid and underrated Texas A&M, and Portland, but the way they won was impressive. This team shoots the ball well from the perimeter, passes it unselfishly and possesses the traditional Huggins' athleticism and pressure D. As Ebanks gets acclimated with the team, they will continue to get even better. Man the Big East is really loaded...again.

Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)

9. North Carolina - The Syracuse win really doesn't bother me. It is the fact they were tied with five minutes to go at home against Nevada that pushes them out of my Elite Eight. I still think once they figure out who is going to initiate the offense this is one of the five best teams in the country.

10. Tennessee - A one point loss to Purdue doesn't hurt their standings in my book. The lack of a PG does.

11. Gonzaga - Hard to believe the team that was underrated so long that they became overrated was unrated at the begining of the season. OK, that was a mouthful. Let's make it easy; with wins over Cincinnati, Wisconsin and a gutty 2-point loss in Chrysler Arena to MSU the Zags are really good. Will they stay this high in the polls? Unlikely. WIth December games that look like: Wake Forest, Davidson, @Duke, @Illinois, then a conference first three of: @Portland, @St. Mary's and @San Diego. Regardless of the outcome, that is a recipe for tourney-readiness.

12. UConn -Duke hammered them. They need a SF/SG who can create to be elite. However, don't let that fool you into thinking this team isn't very good..

13. Ohio State - Evan Turner is still #1 on my POY ballot, Ohio State is still a dangerous team who could win the Big Ten and make the short drive to Indy this April. Wednesday's Big Ten/ACC Challenge matchup vs. Florida State is a good opportunity to solidify their ranking.

14. Florida - I wasn't sure what to make of the nearly 20 point win over Florida State; then Florida State won three straight in the Old Spice Classic (including over a good Marquette team). Then they took down Michigan State on Friday and it is hard to over look the Gators at this point. Are they going to be a Sweet 16 team in March? I'm not quite sure of that. But I would be willing to wager they snap a two-year NIT streak this Spring. We are looking forward to next week's game against Syracuse.

15. Michigan State - I called them the most over-ranked team before the season's outset. Florida proved my right. I'd be stunned if the Gators are a Top Ten team this season. By the end of the year? Perhaps the Spartans will be; that is Izzo's traditional M.O. For now? It's hard to have them any higher than this. Of course, win tomorrow night against North Carolina and all is forgiven.

16. Up for grabs - I can't really put anyone a definitive step forward as each team listed has some great wins and a tough loss that makes them loom as a question mark (except for Georgetown who gets a "loss" from me for the 46-45 snoozer with Temple and the subsequent dodging). Cincinnati, Georgetown, Florida State, Marquette, Texas A&M, Washington (show me something this week @ Texas Tech, the 63-59'er over Montana goes in the "L" column in our book), Portland, Clemson, Miami(FL)

Closing In...
UNLV, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Memphis, Richmond, Oklahoma St,

Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on:
Rhode Island, Washington St. (6-0 with a 37-point win over San Diego yesterday), Xavier, Butler (tough losses, but still a Top-25 level team, Dayton, St. John's, Seton Hall, Northern Colorado, Northwestern, Baylor, Iowa State, New Mexico

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Previewing the East Region

Best First Round Game: UCLA v VCU. VCU is the upset pick de juor with Eric Maynor and the Rams history of befalling traditional giants (See: Duke, also in an 6-11 game). However the viewing public seems to have forgot the track record of the Bruins. UCLA has been to three straight Final Fours and despite some heavy losses from last year, still has Darrin Collison at point and Josh Shipp on the wing. More than half the people in the massive ESPN pool have VCU pulling the upset, but I tend to think Vegas is a little smarter. They have the Bruins as a 7.5 point favorite - one of the largest spreads for any game not involving a #1-#4 seed.

Forget the "upset" potential, just sit down to watch two of the countries best little point guards go head to head.

Best Player: If you have a soft spot in your heart for memories of Grant Hill gliding gracefully for four years at Duke, wait until you get a load of Gerald Henderson. He struggled through the first month of the season, but since January he has been the best player in the nation. His silky shooting touch and defensive tenacity get overshadowed by jaw-dropping athleticism. His emergence as a true superstar gives Duke a legitimate chance to win it all.

Most important player(s): Let's get to the point. More specifically, the point guards. It is a commonly cited axom that guard play wins in the NCAA's. There are four teams that will go precisely as far as their guards take them. For Villanova, Scottie Reynolds makes the engine go. Likewise for Texas's AJ Abrahams. Duke's revolving door at the point finally settled on freshman Elliot Williams. How he and senior Greg Paulus handle their split duties will determine much of the Dukies fate. The same for another freshman, Xavier PG Terrell Holloway. Holloway has big "little" shoes to fill as he tried to replicate the Elite Eight run spearheaded last year by Drew Lavender.

Worst Seeding: Hands down, easily the WORST seeding job of the entire tourney was Tennessee at a 9. The Maniac had them at a #5 winning the SEC Tourney, and a #6 after their loss. This is a team that finished 10-6 in an albiet down SEC, but still a far superior conference to the ones played in by Butler, Utah State, and Siena. They killed themselves out of conference with a spectacular schedule, and finished the season with good momentum. Their reward?? A ludicrous #9 seed and a date with Oklahoma State. Win that, and Pitt looms in round two.

Toughest Break: Florida State did more than enough to earn a Top 4 seed, but by falling to a #5 they a toss-up first round game rather than a should win #4v#13. They match up with Wisconsin, a tam famous for frustratingly slow, controlled tempo basketball. The Seminoles are far better team, but this is a terrible matchup for them.

Possible 2nd Round Gem: Should Florida State survive the Badgers, Xavier v. Florida State will be an extremely high level 2nd round game. The one I am salivating over is Tennessee getting a shot at Pitt. It is a good matchup for the Vols, as they enjoy the sloppy and physical scrambling game. They are every bit as athletic as Pitt, if not more so, and can likely put pressure on their guards and cause some problems.

Easiest to Root For: If Gonzaga has become "America's Team" then the Dukies have become College Basketball's Yankees. For some reason the clean-cut Blue Devils inspire more ire than any other school. That said, it would be easy to root Binghamton today. Tony Cornheiser's alma matter makes their first ever tourney appearance with a chance to slay the hated Goliath. It ain't happening, but easy to root for I suppose. Don't forget, Duke needed divine intervention to hold off #15 Belmont in last year's opener...

Maniac's Sweet Sixteen Picks:

Xavier over Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen (Bruce Pearl's Vols stunning Pitt in Rd 2)
Duke over UCLA (UCLA getting over Nova)

Duke beating X for the second time in 6 years to advance to the Final Four

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Big Wins and Damaging Losses

Everything in the final few weeks is under a much closer magnifying glass. There are a few teams who might wish they could have shuffled yesterday's losses into the November mulligan pile.

Bad Losses:

• Miami (FL) all but sealed their NIT fate last night, falling to Florida State 80-67. The Canes join Notre Dame and Georgetown as one of the most disapointing teams in 2009.

• Illinois was starting to gather some momentum as a possible top-4 seed. Last night that came to a clanking halt. Let me emphasize "clank." As in 33 points. Yup, just 33 points. Granted Penn State netted only 38 in what has to be one of the lousier "decent" games of the season.

• Providence wasn't supposed to win at Louisville, but posting another double-digit loss against a formidable foe gives some ammo to the case for leaving out the Friars. One of their only saving graces might be the fact that Georgetown and Notre Dame seemingly refuse to make a late season charge, and the Big East is GOING to get eight teams in...

• Butler dropped another game last night, this time a three point loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Butler peaked in the Top 10, but is looking more like a 10 seed if they don't get it together quickly.

• Someone should volunteer to play defense down in Knoxville. Most people still have the Vols comfortably in the tourney, but they sure are begging the committee to reconsider. Last night they got drubbed 81-65 by Ole Miss to fall to 7-4 in conference. They are 7-7 over their last 14 games overall. The Vols are still in decent shape, but with games still remaining against Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina they can still play themselves out of the tourney.

• Speaking of South Carolina, losing to Mississippi State is not the way to play yourself onto the good side of the bubble. The Gamecocks still have some work to do over the next three weeks.

• Ohio State is the same story; things were looking good until last night's surprising loss to Northwestern. With a few tips and breaks here and there, we wouldn't be talking about Ohio State's bad loss, but perhaps the Wildcats big win. Alas, that was a game the Buckeyes needed to stay in the Big Ten race.

• Perhaps the worst loss of the night was Virginia Tech. The Hokies find themselves in the bubble muddle in the middle of the deep ACC along with Florida State, BC, Miami and Maryland. That made losing to in-state rival Virginia particularly damning for VA Tech.

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Big Game Rundown - Wednesday Feb 4th

We are entering the final month of the regular season, and things are starting to take shape in the Big 6 conferences. Several teams have disappointed, but no one the experts were banking on to dance has eliminated themselves from the possibility (Notre Dame and Arizona need to win this week though...).

More than misfires, we have had a nice crop of pleasant surprises. Whether teams like Penn State, Providence and Northwestern can finish strong remains to be seen, but I imagine their fan bases can not be too disappointed with the seasons they are turning in.

Here are the biggest games that impact the bubble and seeding taking place Wednesday.

West Virginia heads to the Carrier Dome in a huge Big East battle. The Mountaineers are 4-4, while the 'Cuse is 5-4 in conference play. Neither one can feel too comfortable in their Top 8 position with Notre Dame and Georgetown lurking just a game behind. The winner tonight moves closer to locking up a dance card, the loser slides onto the bubble.

Notre Dame visits the Bearcats in the Queen City in an even more precarious game for both squads. The loser of this game (particularly if it is UC) is all but eliminated from tourney thoughts. Notre Dame is 3-6 in conference and 12-8 overall. A loss at Cincinnati would leave them with very little room for error. It is possible for a Big East team to slide into the tourney at 8-10 in conference. However, after UC, Notre Dame still has trips to UConn, West Virginia and Providence, as well as home games with Lousiville and Villanova. Throw in a non-conference trip to UCLA and it is getting late pretty early for the Irish.

Harangody needs some help to get the Irish dancing...

Wake Forest looks to rebound from their surprising loss at Georgia Tech with a trip to Miami. The Canes were ranked the first month of the season but are on the wrong side of the bubble as of today. A win over the Deac's could get them back on track to make a late season-saving push.

Utah visits TCU in a good Mountain West battle. Several polls have the Utes as one of the last teams IN the tourney. TCU has a smaller reputation but a similar profile and trails the Utes (and everyone else) by only one game at 4-3. Big game to see if the teams can start to seperate a little in the MWC.

Ok Providence, are you for real? If so, bring your A game when Villanova comes calling tomorrow night. Tournament teams defend their home court. Another blowout loss to one of the Big East Big Boys will crush their image (and really help Georgetown and Notre Dame move back into spots #8 & #9 respectively).

Tennessee once again looks like the best team in the SEC and the most legitimate threat to well-represent the conference in March. Arkansas has done dreadfully in conference play but seems to bring its best for the best teams. They better tomorrow night, as their spot on the "bubble list" is more just a shot in the dark since they own two colossal non-conference wins. All other signs point to NIT or worse...

Minnesota at Michigan State has nothing to do with making the tourney, rather it has national ranking and Big Ten champion implications. Michigan State has been surprisingly vulnerable at home, losing to both Penn State and Northwestern. With the Purdue loss tonight, a Gopher win puts them as part of the big log jam at the top.

And for your viewing pleasure, tune in at 9pm (with the TV muted) for the Clemson v Duke game. Clemson is legitmatly deserving of their #10 ranking at 18-2 with several quality wins. However, when I say "Clemson" what is the first thing you think of? Exactly. Hammered by Wake, Humiliated (intentially improperly capitalized) by Carolina.

It is hard to imagine the committee has different first impressions either. Clemson can do a lot to cement their reputation in either direction tomorrow night.

Can Clemson earn some respect against the Dookies?

The most underrated game of the night from a national perspective in the Battle for LA tomorrow night. UCLA and USC might be the two most talented teams in the Pac 10. SC fell off the radar early with a few losses, but is in good shape getting to the tourney. This game is about more than seeding and standings.

Two Big Big 12 games as well; Oklahoma hosts a reeling Texas A&M squad, while Missouri looks to move from "interesting tourney contender" to "lock" by knocking off the Longhorns in Austin. Texas seems to continue to be forgiven by the pollsters, but reall can't afford too many more "bad" lossess if they have legitimate hopes of earning a Top 4 seed in March.

Great slate of games, for complete BUBBLE IMPACT - visit our sister site (in progress) at TheThirtyFour.com

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Saturday's HUGE Wins

Yet another bizarre and delightful day of college hoops. Wake Forest did pollsters a favor by eliminating any possible consternation over who will be number one when the polls come out tomorrow when they lost at the buzzer to previously winless Georgia Tech. Yep, 0-6 in ACC play before taking on the Deacons who have beaten Duke and UNC. You try and figure out this season...

Yet The Yellow Jackets don't make our "Big Win" list; because the game ostensibly means very little. Georgia Tech is building for next year, but is in too deep of a hole to even entertain dreams of an at-large bid. It is unlikely they will see North of .500 and be eligible for post-season play period. SO, they don't make the list. (However, Wake could make the "bad loss" list for sure!)

Let's run down some of the biggest wins across the country yesterday:

Missouri got a much-needed win, and in convincing fashion whn they whooped Baylor yesterday. The Bears don't seem to have the magic they had last season, and are in real danger of missing the tourney. Missouri puts themself back in solid position after slipping a little with thir loss to K State earlier in the week.

Speaking on whom, how about Kansas State?? Left for dead a week ago, they beat Missouri and then go into Austin for their second straight win yesterday. It is still a tall mountain to climb, given their poor non-conference resume, but for the immediate time being, Kansas State has put themselves back in the tourney conversation.

What to make of the Pac-10? Just when everyone was ready to write off UCLA, everyone collapses around them and the Bruins once again look like the team to beat after a 30+ point beating of Stanford. Washington captured a huge win (84-71) at Arizona State yesterday, and Arizona continues their spirited resurgance winning over Washington State. Meanwhile USC reasserted their tourney hopes, and diminished those of Cal with their 73-62 win late last night.

It is a similar mess in the much maligned SEC. Tennessee was on the ropes but bounced up nicely with a sound beating of the Gators last night in Knoxville. The win pulls the Vols into a 4-way 2-loss tie atop the SEC East. South Carolina put a huge chip in their tourney pile with a win yesterday in Lexington. The Gamecocks are the most overlooked of the bunch, but at 16-4 (5-2) with their only non-conferences losses against Clemson and a tough Charelston squad and wins over Baylor and Kentucky their resume is looking tourney-solid.

LSU appears to be asserting themselves as the team to beat in the SEC West with another convincing victory, this one over Arkansas. Meanwhile Ole Miss made things more interesting beating in-state rival and formerly West-leading Mississippi State.

The two teams in the ACC that needed wins to keep their sagging tourney hopes alive got them yesterday. Boston College got a nice win over Virginia Tech, and Maryland got a desperatly needed victory over bubble-mate Miami. Again, there is still a month to play but BC and Maryland are right in the same sentance as Miami, Virginia Tech and FSU right now. I wouldn't want to be the committee who has to pick two or three and leave the others behind.

And perhaps the biggest "bubble-win" of the day, Northwestern (12-7, 4-5) downs Wisconsin. It wouldn't have seemed possible two months ago, but right now the Wildcats would be one of the last two or three teams left out of the tourney. The Big Ten will get six or seven bids, and Michigan and Wisconsin are leaving the door wide open. Northwestern is just a few wins from being in the Field. It goes without saying we will continue to follow the Wildcats' progress as they chase the school's first EVER NCAA bid.

Show-Me Games of the Week

These games will give us some separation at the top and upper-echelon of some tough conferences.

Tuesday:

Ohio St @ Illinois - Both teams enter in the 20-30 range in most polls and 3-2 in Big Ten play. I think both teams will Dance, but this game could loom large when their resumes go side-by-side.

Wednesday:

Villanova @ UConn - Nova is 2-2 in conference with a trip to UConn looming. Villanova sits on the precarious spot of being the "ninth" team in the nation's deepest and biggest conference. No conference has ever gotten nine bids in March. I wouldn't want to be the one hoping that UNLV or Crieghton or George Mason haven't captured the committee's wandering Cinderella eyes...

Clemson @ UNC -Fifty three times... wow. I am sure you have heard/read the stat many times by now. Clemson brings one of their better teams into Chapel Hill... and still leaves with number fifty four.

Arizona St. @ Arizona - Mayday! Mayday! The Cats are in real trouble. At 2-4 in Pac-10 play and 11-7 overall, it is going to take somelike a win over in-state rival ASU to revitalize a moribund season and keep the nation's longest active NCAA Tourney appearance streak alive.


Thursday:

Minnesota @ Purdue - The conference's best surprise meets the conference's biggest dissapointment. Funny, both have 2 conference losses. The winner take a big step forward in the race to chase Michigan State for the conference crown.

Saturday:

Memphis @ Tennessee - This year lacks the zip of last year's #1 vs #2 Holy War, but still packs some importance. Memphis has one last chance to pick up a resume builder before fattening up on C-USA fluff. Tennessee gets a chance to pick up a much needed non-conference win for the much-maligned, but perhaps just late blooming, SEC.

UCLA @ Washington - The Huskies might be the biggest sleeper in the country, with NBA-quality big man John Brockton and a 4-1 conference record. The winner moves into first place in the Pac-10.

Xavier @ LSU - same drill as the above Memphis v. Tennessee analysis. LSU needs the win a little more desperatly, as their resume is blank and their early SEC play hasn't been good. Xavier can ill-afford another slip-up if they have aspirations of holding a Top 4 seed in March.

Tuesday's Picks

The Maniac Pick's Em - Tuesday, January 13th

The SEC may have no ranked teams, but tonight's Kentucky v. Tennessee game is a big one. Rivalry aside, both teams have a lot at stake in the matter. For Kentucky, their spot in the Big Dance is far from sure at this point. Only a ferocious late season run kept their 17 year streak in tact. A road win over conference big boy Tennessee would go a long way to making Selection Sunday joyous rather than anxious.

Maniac's Pick: Kentucky +6.5

This scene last year catapulted the "Cats to the tourney

Poor Indiana gets yet another chance to broadcast their misery natiowide when they visit a hungry Buckeye team that cannot afford to many more Big Ten missteps. Does ESPN not have the option of NFL-esue "flex scheduling"? This is like the seventh IU game already this season...

That said, the number is a big one, and Ohio State is not an offensive juggernaut. They win, but I like the Hoosier Pride keeping in under the number
Maniac's Pick: Indiana +17

Florida State looked like brutal defense socking it out with Blue Devils Saturday. Unfortunatly their offense looked "brutal" as well, and not in a good way. The broadcast team made it sound lik FSU is a sure-fire NCAA team this year. I am not sure how they figure that in a conference wheer they are AT BEST fifth. It is an interesting muddle in the middle; NC State, Maryland, Miami, Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech all seem to be fairly even to me. If FSU wants to make good on ESPN's words, they need a big road win tonight. I think they'll get it.
Maniac's Pick: FSU +4.5

TCU travels to BYU is a sneaky-good game tonight. Vegas has the Horned Frogs getting 15. Take the points and enjoy the evening. Let's call this the LOCK of the day.

Maniac's Pick: TCU +15 (LOCK)

Wednesday Picks

Maniac's Picks:

Michigan -8 @ Indiana (Kaiser's Pick)

Providence @ Cincinnati -3
Northwestern @ Wisconsin -7
Charleston +26 @ North Carolina
Gonzaga +4 @ Tennessee
Davidson @ Duke -14

I like Davidson, but they couldn't get a quality shot off against Purdue on a semi-neutral floor. Duke's D is better than Purdue's (pop in a tape of their December meeting in Mackey, or ask Robbie Hummel how well the defend ball screens and backcuts). I really see Steph struggling a lot tonight, and he really has little help with him.

Charleston walks into a hornet's nest tonight, facing the nation's best team on their home floor fresh off a stunning upset defeat. That said, Charleston is a good ballclub, and could make the SoCon a 2-bid league, which is simple unheard of in most years. I think that Carolina is focused and sharp, but Charleston is a good team that will punch back.

Gonzaga beat Tennessee earlier this year on a neutral floor. They need tonight's repeat win desperatly to validate their early wins and wash away the taste of some stinging defeats. No one believes me but I assure you, Gonzaga is tenuously on the bubble as of January 7th.