Consider this part two of the series, updated with some fresh Thursday results from a couple of very big games with bubble implications
STOCK UP:
Belmont - With tonight's win the Bruins moved to 24-4, and 16-1 in the Atlantic Sun. The A-Sun is nowhere in the stratosphere of an at-large berthing conference, however, considering that three of Belmont's losses are to Tennessee twice and Vanderbilt - none by more than nine, and one could make a very compelling case for the Bruins should they fall in the conference tourney.
Arizona - Very quietly Sean Miller has done on of the better coaching jobs in the country, and has the Wildcats poised not only to return to the Tourney, but to claim a Top 4 (I have them as a #3 today) seed. Tonight's 79-70 win over Washington State was a big one for Arizona, and a huge blow to the Cougars bubble hopes.
Alabama - Even more quietly than Arizona, Anthony Grant has done the most stunning reclamation project in the nation, and has guided Alabama legitimately back into the NCAA Tourney discussion. Tonight's win over LSU is nothing to shout about, but the Crimson Tide's 9-2 mark in conference sure is. While Tennessee and Georgia are tripping all over themselves, Alabama is making early season losses to St. Peter's, Iowa, Providence and Seton Hall seem like distant memories. Unfortunatly the Committee's memories are pretty long...
It may be too much to overcome, but right now, I'd give the Tide the nod over Georgia.
STOCK DOWN:
Minnesota - Losing to Penn State is not a good way to impress the Committee late. The 66-63 loss doesn't knock the Gophers out, but it does put them in a very precarious position with a lot of pressure to finish strong and possibly even win a few games in the Big Ten tourney.
Clemson - If you appear in the Maniac's "Stock Down" in consecutive editions, things aren't going well. Tonight's 79-71 loss to NC State should pretty much seal the Tiger's NIT destination.
Richmond - Tonight's 73-53 loss to Temple was really ugly. The Spiders still have life, but are dancing right on the fine #12 seed/NIT line. Duquesne has to be thrilled with the lopsided defeat, and in the Maniac's mock bracket, they have officially slid ahead of Richmond in the pecking order.
Last season the Big Ten laid to rest the seemingly eternal streak of ACC dominance. Winning last year's challenge was the first time the Big Ten had done so since the series inception more than a decade ago.
Last year's triumph may have been a minor upset, but in order for the ACC to get back on top it is going to take an upset of their own. For perhaps the first time in the Challenge era, the Big Ten is clearly superior.
Here's a quick breakdown of the matchups, along with some fearless prognostications:
MONDAY:
Virginia @ Minnesota: Tubby's Gophers have been one of the pleasant surprises of the early season, winning their preseason tourney by downing North Carolina and West Virginia. They also handled solid mid-majors Wofford, Western Kentucky and Siena, all with relative ease. They should cruise at home against the Cavaliers.
TUESDAY:
Iowa @ Wake Forest: Both teams have been dreadful in the early going and look like cellar dwellars in their respective leagues. I'll take Wake, who I think is a little better than they have played, at home over the Hawkeyes.
Georgia Tech @ Northwestern: The Wildcats their first real test of the season. I like them over the Jackets in a close game.
Ohio State @ Florida State: The Buckeye's were #2 in our preseason poll, and remain the most legitimate challenger (along with Kansas) to the Blue Devils hopes to repeat. Florida State lacks the offensive punch to score with a very balanced Buckeye attack.
Michigan @ Clemson: This is a game the Tigers need to win if the ACC has any chance of pulling out the challenge. I think they will, but this one could be really ugly. Both teams are sloppy with the ball an inefficient offensively.
North Carolina @ Illinois: Illinois is one of the quietest good teams in the country. They dropped to #20 after losing an intense game to Texas. Look for the Illini to exploit Carolina's ballhandling and passing woes into easy buckets and an easy win.
WEDNESDAY: Indiana @ Boston College: This is a huge opportunity for the Hoosiers to take the next step in their rebuilding journey and validate their early unbeaten creampuff-aided record. BC has played in more competitive games early, and that is an advantage, but I still like the Hoosiers to get an upset win on the road.
North Carolina State @ Wisconsin: The Badgers just do not lose in the Kohl Center. They won't tonight either. Give me Bucky in a win over better-than-advertised NC State.
Purdue @ Virginia Tech: VA Tech might be the second best team in the ACC (hence my 'Can Duke Run the Table' columns). Purdue is taking some flack for losing to Richmond the other day, but Richmond is a legit Top 20 team. To me, not as concerning a loss as it seemed on the surface. Despite the loss of Hummel, Purdue remains Top 10-Top 15 talented with JuJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore. I like the Boilermakers in the road, stiffling Malcoln Delaney and the Hokies. This is probably the second best game of the series, I wouldn't miss this one.
Maryland @ Penn State: This is why God created ESPN-U. So you and I could watch games like this while 99.9% of the nation could care less. Maryland is my sleeper pick in the ACC. I watched them frustrate Pitt for 40 minutes. Once they figure out who their primary ballhandler is going to be, the Terps could surprise some folks and make the tourney. Penn State is awful, but enjoy Talor Battle for one more season. The do-everything guard for the Nittany Lions is one of the most exciting players in the country. That said, I'll take the Terps on the road.
Michigan State @ Duke: This is the marquee matchup, and we'll devote a column to it on Wednesday. I won't give away my pick, but I'm sure you can guess....
OVERALL: I have the Big Ten winning 7-4 on my fight card.
"Old" was an apt description, but "Spice" seems slightly ambitious. Perhaps the tournament would have more been more appropriately monikered "Old Must" or even "Old Diaper." Yes, Notre Dame gets enormous credit for triumphing over a balanced field and stacking three very valuable preconference chips in their tourney-bid pile, but more than taking away 'Notre Dame is good' I think most of us college hoop die-hards took away a more sobering realization.
It's a down year in college hoops.
Pearl has lots of reasons for a "thumbs-down" but surprisingly his teams' play isn't one of them
This doesn't mean it won't be fun season. It doesn't mean college basketball isn't still the purest sport available for mass consumption. It simply means that in the ebbs and flows of history 2010-2011's collective flow might be more of a retention pond than Great Lake. But it's not just the "Old Spice Classic." While he well of competitive balance and parity remains full, the national overall quality of teams is reaching a low water mark.
If Duke beats Michigan State on Wednesday, and I think they will, it isn't unreasonable to start the "can they run the table" conversation. They dismantled #3 Kansas State in Kansas City. Assuming they do similarly to Izzo's famously slow-starting Spartans, it is fair to assume Duke will be the prohibitive favorite in every game remaining on their schedule. Let's take a quick test....Close your eyes....
Is this Duke team in the same ballpark with 2009 North Carolina? How about the Heels in 05? Duke's 2001 team? Therein lies the bigger story. Its not that Duke is transcendentally great. It's that so few other teams are even good. Who is even close in the ACC? North Carolina? The Heels look closer to last year's NIT-status than they do Final Four contender. Wake Forest and Georgia Tech have looked awful, both losing to teams well outside of the Top 100. Clemson? Their overtime turnover/bad shot-apalooza against Seton Hall could have set back basketball twenty years if only Cal hadn't beaten them to the punch. Florida State? In their first game against a reasonable opponent they lost to Florida (who was emasculated in their opener by Ohio State), scoring only 51 points in the process.
Boston College could make the claim as the only non-Duke bright spot thus far in the ACC, claiming third place in the "Old Diaper." In truth, Boston College might actually be the best example of the glaring parity of mediocrity that plagues the ACC. This is an Eagle team that has already lost games to Wisconsin (good loss) and YALE! (um...not a good loss). Glancing over that field, is it unreasonable to think Duke could run the table? It's really not...
It's not just the ACC. All around college basketball supposed power teams from power leagues are losing to the little guys. It happens a few times every season and at least once or twice in March; the difference this year is that the little guys aren't very good! Look, dropping a ball game to the Wichita State's and Murray State's of the world is no shame; those are good ballclubs. Losing to Yale, Stetson (Wake Forest), Rutgers (Miami) or Kennesaw State (GA Tech) is.
Things aren't much better in the SEC. Tennessee has been an early bright spot, winning the NIT by triumphing over a very good VCU team and a good Villanova squad (they also have quieter solid wins over Chattanooga, Belmont and Missouri State - kudos to Pearl for scheduling three "no-names" with good teams). Vandy looks solid as well, with a good win over UNC and a very solid three-point loss to West Virginia.
OK, enough with the good. Georgia, the trendy darling of the SEC coming into the season has disappointed, losing ugly games to Notre Dame and Temple. Neither loss is shameful, it is their wins that raise a curious eyebrow after beating terrible Mississippi Valley State and Manhattan teams by only two and three points respectively. Alabama and Auburn have contributed losses to Iowa, St. Peters, NC Ashville, Samford and Jacksonville. Not to be outdone, LSU laid a nine-point loss stinkbomb to traditional powerhouse Nicholls State.
These are some pretty mediocre returns, and we haven't even dipped our toe into the murky pond of Pac-10 basketball or the abominable bottom half of the Big East.
The point is this; trying to handicap this season will be a near impossibility. Teams #5 through #75 are as close as they have been in my recent memory. Even good teams in 2010 are very flawed. This season is going to be an absolute free-for-all. We need to eliminate the terms "shock" and "upset" from the vocabulary for a while (I actually saw "Temple stunned by Cal" on a national sports website I will leave nameless...) and just enjoy the season for what it is. Call it "parity" or call it "mediocrity" by March it will all sort itself out in three glorious weeks. Until then, if I was a wagering man, I'd bet the under...
Welcome to a new feature on March Maniacs called "Moving Up & Moving Out". Each week we are going to take a look at the biggest movers in what is emerging as one of the most tumultuous seasons in recent memory. I still defy any expert or pundit to make sense of the ACC. I really don't think it is possible at this point.
Last week, in my now destroyed Bracketeering Projection, I argued the Top Three teams in the ACC are Duke, Georgia Tech and Clemson. I still think that is true, particularly after Maryland's loss to Clemson last night. I'm not as high on Florida State as some others are, and still project them in the NIT. I wasn't sold on Virginia, but the way they handed Carolina their backside on the home floor (again) seems to tell us something... though which team it tells us more about it debatable.
The ACC is a mess, and I wouldn't wager a dime on a single conference game the rest of the year my waging-minded friends. That said, here is a quick status check of the many ACC bubblemates.
Moving Up:
Clemson - notched a big win last night over Maryland to move to 4-4 in conference. Two of their losses are to 5-2 Duke, so winning the ACC is pretty much out of reach. However those two losses to the Dukies mean their remaining schedule allows them eight league games without facing their nemesis in Durham. By the end of the year, Clemson wins 10-11 games in league and makes the tournament wearing white jerseys in Round One.
Florida State - Yes, it was Boston College, but any road win in the ACC is a good win. It pulled the Seminoles to 4-3 in conference and leaves them squarely in the race.
Virginia - What to make of the Cavs? I still contend that unless they win 11 games in league they will have a tough time making the tourney because of the brutal non-conference losses they sustained. One could even argue that Virginia's success damages the league's hopes to earn six or seven bids as it devalues the percieved quality of the teams. All that said, they went into Chapel Hill and beat the hell out of Roy Williams' and his seemingly never-ending parade of McDonald's All-Americans and moved to 4-2 in league play.
Moving Out:
Miami (FL) - Yes, they finally got a conference win this weekend. However of the Hurricanes 16 wins, only SIX of them have come against teams in the RPI Top 200. Let me repeat that. TOP 200. Yuck.
Virginia Tech - And of you are team that loses to the aforementioned 'Canes, your stock has to drop a bit. Coming right on the heels of a good win in Charlottesville, it has to be a particularly deflating loss. It looks like yet another NIT stop for Seth Greenburg and the Hokies.
North Carolina - What to say about the Tarheels? This week they fall to 2-4 in league after getting decimated at home by Virginia. It is one thing to struggle on the road; most conferences do. It is quite another to be hammered at home in back to back games by Wake Forest and Virginia. I had the Tarheels as a #7 seed in my first bracket projection. It has nothing to do with the "name on the jersey", in fact I would argue the Tarheels were slightly undervalued for the exact same reason and heightened scruitiny.
It is getting real hard to argue on Carolina's behalf at this point. Will they make the tourney? It seems hard to imagine they can't get that awesome collection of talent steadied, but it seems equally abysmal watching their last two home games. This week they have two road games; at VA Tech and at Maryland. They really need to win both to be on decent footing before the following week's visit from the Dukies.
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We have a nice bevy of quality games tonight. Tennessee, America's new darling team, faces a tricky road trip trap game in Tuscaloosa. The Tide have given Purdue and Vandy fits in their gym and also beaten Michigan. I'm making no official pick on this one, but it is worth a watch as Tennessee is creeping into legitimate #1 seed discussions.
Another fantastic conference game is taking place in Atlanta tonight. I was blown away by the explosive quickness and leaping ability of Gani Lawal, and even more impressed with his strength watching him manhandle Carolina's vaunted interior. It will be a blast watching him and Clemson's Booker bang all game. This is another game I wouldn't dare touch in Vegas, but I would wager you are watching two of the three best teams in the ACC face off tonight.
Ok, now for same games I will put my name on:
George Mason, like Creighton and Utah, had miserable pre-conference seasons but still seem capable of spoiling some things once conference play starts. Hofstra is a tough place to win, and they have been solid in CAA play, but I like the Patriots and the four and a half tonight.
Evan Turner is my National Player of the Year (still), and many readers will be surprised to see where Ohio State lands in tomorrow's Bracketeering. That said, laying 12 is a lot to a good Northwestern team, fresh off their win over Purdue. Ohio State wins, but I'll take NW and the 12.
Oklahoma is 2-1 in conference play, and from a distance seems to have steadied the once-promising ship. From a distance. This team takes terrible shots and looks like a playground team at times. The win over Mizzou is a good one, but I'll still lay the seven and take Texas A&M at home.
Surely Purdue can't lose another game in a row, right? That logic burnt me this weekend at Northwestern, but I'm sticking to my guns tonight when they travel to Champaigne. I still think the Illini are a bit overrated and a bubble team by the time the season winds down. If Purdue drops THIS one, it is time to push the panic button in West Lafayette.
In my final pick, let me start by saying Northern Iowa is really good. In my estimation, they are a tourney lock, and though we've had them higher than the polls all year (who finally ranked the Panthers), deserve their spot in Bracketeering. However, there is nothing tougher than knocking off a familiar, talented conference rival in their barn. The Panthers are going to try to do just that tonight at Wichita State. I like the Shockers laying two, in a good win not only for them, but also for the MVC's hopes of earning more than one bid.
MANIAC'S PICKS:
Northwestern +12
Wichita St. -2
Texas A&M -7
George Mason +4.5
Purdue -4
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The salvo Georgia Tech fired across Duke's bow Saturday has to resonate leaguewide. The message? The ACC is more wide open than it has been in a decade. Duke loses their road opener and North Carolina has looked incredibly vulnerable in the young season. I wrote several weeks ago that #3 through #11 this league was as jumbled as any. Perhaps it should be ammended to #1-#12; i.e. top to bottom.
Clemson handled their homecourt with ease, downing Boston College 72-56. The win was a nice bounce back for the Tigers after their opening loss in Cameron. The game of the day was Miami defeating Wake Forest 77-76 at home. Both teams look like NCAA Tournament teams to me, though there is still a long way to go in a brutal conference slate. Miami, unranked as of yesterday, is off to a 15-1 start. Might it be view the Canes as legitimate conference title challengers?
The ACC has long played some of their finer confernce games on Sunday night. While most people were watching the NFL, Maryland got a huge win, 77-68 over Florida State. It seems the Terps are annually on the bubble and the non-conference performance leads you to believe it might be more of the same in 2010. Conference wins will be huge, and it is important to win at home if you want to dance in March.
Carolina pulled away late and got a got win over a better than advertised Virginia Tech ballclub, 78-64. And speaking of bubble, Seth Greenburg's Hokies are annual staddlers as well. With Miami and FSU up next, they can ill-afford a 0-3 conference start and will need to knock off one of them.
Lastly, hats off to Virginia. The Cavs were largely picked last in the preseason but won their opener 70-62 over NC State, on the road no less. Let's not get hasty booking tourney plans, but it seems that all 12 teams will be capable of winning, and losing, on any night.
Team Up: Virginia, Maryland, Miami
Team Down: Boston College, NC State
Week ahead highlights: Maryland @ Wake (Tues), UNC @ Clemson (Wed), GA Tech @ UNC & VA Tech @ FSU (Sat), Wake @ Duke (Sun)
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Yup. For those of you counting the Maniac has now hit on 8 of 9 picks, nearly every one of them not just right, but almost exactly mapped in terms of tempo and margin. SO - what do we have in store for today?
Here's some quick Sunday picks:
No official pick here, but I have a feeling UCF is going to give Notre Dame a handful and even pull off an upset today in the Joyce Center.
1PM - South Carolina is banged up, Clemson is coming off a stunning second half twenty-plus point collapse against Illinois. The Tigers will be jacked up and focused to host in state rival USC and cover the 7 point spread.
7PM - Arizona is 3-3, but has lost multiple OT and two point heartbreakers. Tonight they are getting 8 points at less-than stellar Oklahoma. This line fluttered too far after Oklahoma laid the lumber to Arkansas. It looks good in the boxscore, but again, Arkansas has been combing the campus to find bodies to dress. It is akin to beating a low-major this year. Give me Nic Wise and Sean Miller's Cats to cover.
7:30PM - Touch this game at your own peril. Villanova takes their #3 ranking to take on the Terps in DC...and is laying only 2? Seems low, but would anyone be surprised to see Grevies Vasquez go off for like 27-8-8 today in an upset? I wouldn't. I think 'Nova should be laying more but am staying away from an official pick on this one.
SEASON RECORD: 21-12-1 ATS
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It has been widely covered this week how the Big Ten has never beaten the ACC in the Challenge. I found that surprising, given the ACC's recent top-heaviness, but am not stunned. Regardless, this year seems to be the Big Ten's chance to break through.
Here is a guide to this week's games:
MONDAY: Penn State def. Virginia - Not surprising as Penn State is as strong as any 8th or 9th place team in any normal size (BEast excluded) conference in America. It's a good start for the Ten.
TUESDAY: A really good slate of games highlighted by Michigan State's trip to UNC at 9PM (ESPN HD). The undercard isn't bad either with Wake @ Purdue, Northwestern at NC State, Maryland @ Indiana, and Iowa @ Virginia Tech.
I am not sure exactly how the matchups are determined, but Maryland v. Indiana seems an odd mismatch, with IU being figured no higher than 9th (probably 10th or 11th) in the Big Ten. When your predicted finish is lower than the number of teams in the NAME OF YOUR LEAGUE it is not going to be a real banner season. Ditto for Iowa, the only team scraping the bottom with Indiana. Their draw of VA Tech seems a bit ambitious as well.
MANIAC'S PICKS: Purdue, Maryland, VA Tech, Northwestern in a surprise, and North Carolina continuing to haunt Izzo and the Spartans; this time with a nearly entirely new cast...
WEDNESDAY: More great action starts at 7PM with Illinois trying to stabilize a disappointing start with a win at Clemson. Other games in the early going feature Minnesota @ Miami, and Boston College @ Michigan. The late games are two really good ones when Duke tries to do what very few have recently; win at the Kohl Center against the Badgers, and Florida State visiting Evan Turner and the Ohio State Buckeyes.
MANIAC'S PICKS: Clemson, Miami (FL), Michigan, Duke and Ohio State.
FINAL TALLY: ACC gets 'em again, by a close 6-5 margin.
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The phrase de' jour this season in college hoops is "signature win." Everyone needs to have their "signature win." Providence got theirs this week beating Pitt. Cincinnati lacks one, and it will likely be their bubble popping lest they win tonight against West Virginia. Maryland got theirs this weekend taking down Carolina in overtime; ditto for BC's bookend wins over Duke and the aforementioned Heels.
But at what point does the "signature" begin to fade?? Last night ESPN threw up a graphic of the "signature wins" for the ACC's bottom six teams. FOUR of them read "Wake Forest."
Leading me to question....
Just a thought. I don't hate Wake, just think they have gotten more mileage out of the timing of when they won more than any team in the nation. Their resume, is quite comparable to a lot of teams ranked 15-25, only they didn't lose out of conference (nor did they beat anyone other than BYU). So what exactly does a "signature win" entail??
Anyhow, several teams will be seeking their "signature wins" this week as we franticly race towards Selection Sunday:
Thursday:
West Virginia @ Cincinnati - Cincy needs a win over Huggs to stay alive Minnesota @ Illinois - Gophers in danger of sliding onto..and off the bubble Memphis @ UAB (9pm) - Darth Vaden needs to strike back in a major way to keep the Blazers slim at-large hopes alive USC @ Cal - Last gasp for USC as well tonight at Cal
Saturday: Clemson @ Florida State (2pm) - big game for both seeding-wise Notre Dame @ UConn (2pm) - Do or die for the Irish...again. Illinois St @ Creighton (2pm) - Great game; Jays can not afford any losses before MVC title game to snag an at-large bid Arizona @ Washington - Win for 'Cats takes them from "bubble" to "lock" status Duke @ VA Tech - Hokies got big win at Clemson, a win over Duke might put them in the Dance LSU @ Kentucky (4pm) - Kentucky is in danger of playing themselves out of the tourney Utah @ BYU - One would think both teams are safely in, but the winner removes all doubt Utah St @ Nevada - The Aggies are 25-3, and still not quite a lock, they can ill-afford to give away another L and be safely in.
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Every time I want to put the Gophers in the elite company of the Big Ten's finest, reality slaps them back down. Michigan State has been shaky of late at home, losing to two conference perreneal doormats, but showed no ill-effects tonight, dismantling visiting Minnesota 76-47. The game was 46-12 at halftime, and the Spartans "eased up" in the last ten minutes.
It is just one of those seasons folks, everything you think you know is wrong. Once you know that, the season makes sense. (notice the Maniac filed no picks the past few days...)
Miami has been one of the most underperforming teams in the nation this year. Tonight they handed Wake Forest their ass by nearly 30. Clemson has looked severly overwhelmed in their two dances with ACC big boys. As I write they lead Duke by 20 in the second half.
And then there is Notre Dame. They have lost their past few "must-wins" making tonight's trip to Cincinnati a true "must-win." After the Bearcats beat them easily tonight, the Big East tournament is looking like the Irish's next true "must win."
Great wins tonight: Cincinnati, Villanova, Michigan State, Utah, Miami and Clemson.
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We are entering the final month of the regular season, and things are starting to take shape in the Big 6 conferences. Several teams have disappointed, but no one the experts were banking on to dance has eliminated themselves from the possibility (Notre Dame and Arizona need to win this week though...).
More than misfires, we have had a nice crop of pleasant surprises. Whether teams like Penn State, Providence and Northwestern can finish strong remains to be seen, but I imagine their fan bases can not be too disappointed with the seasons they are turning in.
Here are the biggest games that impact the bubble and seeding taking place Wednesday.
West Virginia heads to the Carrier Dome in a huge Big East battle. The Mountaineers are 4-4, while the 'Cuse is 5-4 in conference play. Neither one can feel too comfortable in their Top 8 position with Notre Dame and Georgetown lurking just a game behind. The winner tonight moves closer to locking up a dance card, the loser slides onto the bubble.
Notre Dame visits the Bearcats in the Queen City in an even more precarious game for both squads. The loser of this game (particularly if it is UC) is all but eliminated from tourney thoughts. Notre Dame is 3-6 in conference and 12-8 overall. A loss at Cincinnati would leave them with very little room for error. It is possible for a Big East team toslide into the tourney at 8-10 in conference. However, after UC, Notre Dame still has trips to UConn, West Virginia and Providence, as well as home games with Lousiville and Villanova. Throw in a non-conference trip to UCLA and it is getting late pretty early for the Irish.
Harangody needs some help to get the Irish dancing...
Wake Forest looks to rebound from their surprising loss at Georgia Tech with a trip to Miami. The Canes were ranked the first month of the season but are on the wrong side of the bubble as of today. A win over the Deac's could get them back on track to make a late season-saving push.
Utah visits TCU in a good Mountain West battle. Several polls have the Utes as one of the last teams IN the tourney. TCU has a smaller reputation but a similar profile and trails the Utes (and everyone else) by only one game at 4-3. Big game to see if the teams can start to seperate a little in the MWC.
Ok Providence, are you for real? If so, bring your A game when Villanova comes calling tomorrow night. Tournament teams defend their home court. Another blowout loss to one of the Big East Big Boys will crush their image (and really help Georgetown and Notre Dame move back into spots #8 & #9 respectively).
Tennessee once again looks like the best team in the SEC and the most legitimate threat to well-represent the conference in March. Arkansas has done dreadfully in conference play but seems to bring its best for the best teams. They better tomorrow night, as their spot on the "bubble list" is more just a shot in the dark since they own two colossal non-conference wins. All other signs point to NIT or worse...
Minnesota at Michigan State has nothing to do with making the tourney, rather it has national ranking and Big Ten champion implications. Michigan State has been surprisingly vulnerable at home, losing to both Penn State and Northwestern. With the Purdue loss tonight, a Gopher win puts them as part of the big log jam at the top.
And for your viewing pleasure, tune in at 9pm (with the TV muted) for the Clemson v Duke game. Clemson is legitmatly deserving of their #10 ranking at 18-2 with several quality wins. However, when I say "Clemson" what is the first thing you think of? Exactly. Hammered by Wake, Humiliated (intentially improperly capitalized) by Carolina.
It is hard to imagine the committee has different first impressions either. Clemson can do a lot to cement their reputation in either direction tomorrow night.
Can Clemson earn some respect against the Dookies?
The most underrated game of the night from a national perspective in the Battle for LA tomorrow night. UCLA and USC might be the two most talented teams in the Pac 10. SC fell off the radar early with a few losses, but is in good shape getting to the tourney. This game is about more than seeding and standings.
Two Big Big 12 games as well; Oklahoma hosts a reeling Texas A&M squad, while Missouri looks to move from "interesting tourney contender" to "lock" by knocking off the Longhorns in Austin. Texas seems to continue to be forgiven by the pollsters, but reall can't afford too many more "bad" lossess if they have legitimate hopes of earning a Top 4 seed in March.
Great slate of games, for complete BUBBLE IMPACT - visit our sister site (in progress) at TheThirtyFour.com
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The headlines will all be clamoring about the "huge upset" of #1 Wake Forest. Don't let that fool you. Yes, Wake has been playing great ball, but by no means was this the construct of a team built to run the table. When Carolina fell at BC, Indiana's 32-year stranglehold on perfection remained safe.
If nothing else, last night's Virginia Tech victory told us two things; One, the ACC is good. Expect 6 or 7 teams to dance. Virginia Tech is in that mix, and last night's win helped advance that cause. Their record isn't stellar, but look at some of their losses (an OT loss to Xavier in Puerto Rico on a 50-foot buzzer beater). Two, parity is king this season. Last year all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four for the first time. Don't expect a repeat this season.
Relax Dino, It's Gonna be that kinda year...
Case in point; Arkansas defeated two Top Ten Big 12 frontrunners. The Hogs are now 0-3 in a "down" SEC. Boston College slayed UNC in shocking fashion. They then turned around and lost to Harvard. BC is at best a long shot to make the field of 65.
It is going to be a roller coaster ride to the finish, but as Dickie V so incessantly reminds us. "at least we find out the champion on the court."
Amen Dickie.
Wednesday Recap:
Clemson's pasting in Chapel Hill told the nation what Tiger fans were hoping to suppress; "here we go again." The Tigers were ranked as high as ninth, deservedly so, but after their past two less-than-impressive performances against the conference big boys their reputation takes a huge ding. Not only that, but if they suffer a few losses to the likes of Va Tech, NC State, Miami and FSU, "bubble" talk might be appropriate in Clemson.
How in the hell did Florida lose that game?? If you haven't seen it yet, check out the youtube clip. For South Carolina, it keeps their tourney hopes buoyant, as the SEC West looks dreadful, it is not impossible to sneak in four from the east...
The Mountain West is the best of the non-BCS conferences, however their balanced parity is going to cost them bids in March. UNLV pulled off a road win at BYU last night. Both of them appear to be in decent shape to dance, despite being unranked, but New Mexico, Utah and TCU will all provide tough competition to the end. The beatings they are giving each other could drive them all down to around 9-10 conference wins. That would necessitate winning the confernce tournament to enjoy a stress-free Selction Sunday. For the rest, that is an NIT equation.
Arizona is screwed. Last night's come-from-ahead loss to instate rival Arizona State dropped the Cats to 2-5 in Pac 1o play and a long way from the bubble. The rebuilding has officially begun, only it doesn't really seem as if "rebuilding" is the proper term. "Chaos" seems more apropos. I bet Brandon Jennings is ecstatic he (couldn't get admitted)chose to play overseas... I feel badly for Chase Buddinger. He is playing really well in what appears to be a historically poor season in Tuscon when he easily could have left for the NBA last season.
The A-10 might be Xavier and the dozen dwarfs, but the games are crazy exciting. Two more went to overtime last night, with Duquesne dropping a nail-biter to St. Joes 99-98, and Charlotte nipping UMass in OT. Add in Rhode Island losing by three at Richmond and you have one heck of a balanced league. And of course, just one NCAA bid.
The SEC West is winnable at 9-7. LSU pasted 3-0 Mississippi State last night. Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss are all over the place, and who knows what to make of Arkansas. In a year of parity, their is no better example of the grab-bag between #20 and #50 in the country than in the SEC West.
The MVC has a lot of good teams. However they appear to lack a great one. I wonder if the balance in the Big 10, ACC and depth in the Big East will leave two or three sitting on the sidelines in March. Illinois State, Creighton and Evansville appeared to be the strongest early on (with some consideration for Drake as well), however Northern Iowa has stormed out to a 7-1 conference record and a two-game lead on the field. The problem? They had five losses before entering conference play. Only Marquette was ranked (the others, Iowa,Iowa St, Illinois-Chicago and Wyoming). Not exactly the way to get multiple bids for a non BCS league. The MVC's conference tournament will not only be great basketball, but very meaningful hoops as well.
And how about the Northwestern Wildcats? They rewarded the Maniac's proclamation that the Minnesota loss to Northwestern was not a "bad loss" but rather a "good win" for a good Northwestern team with a road victory over conference-unbeaten Michigan State. With their next two contests against Michigan and Indiana, it is not ridiculous to think Northwestern could put themselves squarely in NCAA Tourney conversation. If you are scoring at home the Wildcats now have wins over Florida State, Minnesota and Michigan State, three teams likely dancing in March.
And as much as we have had some bumps and bruises since it first appeared likely... the dream of the February 11th #1 vs. #2 Duke - Carolina shootout still seems possible.
These games will give us some separation at the top and upper-echelon of some tough conferences.
Tuesday:
Ohio St @ Illinois - Both teams enter in the 20-30 range in most polls and 3-2 in Big Ten play. I think both teams will Dance, but this game could loom large when their resumes go side-by-side.
Wednesday:
Villanova @ UConn - Nova is 2-2 in conference with a trip to UConn looming. Villanova sits on the precarious spot of being the "ninth" team in the nation's deepest and biggest conference. No conference has ever gotten nine bids in March. I wouldn't want to be the one hoping that UNLV or Crieghton or George Mason haven't captured the committee's wandering Cinderella eyes...
Clemson @ UNC -Fifty three times... wow. I am sure you have heard/read the stat many times by now. Clemson brings one of their better teams into Chapel Hill... and still leaves with number fifty four.
Arizona St. @ Arizona - Mayday! Mayday! The Cats are in real trouble. At 2-4 in Pac-10 play and 11-7 overall, it is going to take somelike a win over in-state rival ASU to revitalize a moribund season and keep the nation's longest active NCAA Tourney appearance streak alive.
Thursday:
Minnesota @ Purdue - The conference's best surprise meets the conference's biggest dissapointment. Funny, both have 2 conference losses. The winner take a big step forward in the race to chase Michigan State for the conference crown.
Saturday:
Memphis @ Tennessee - This year lacks the zip of last year's #1 vs #2 Holy War, but still packs some importance. Memphis has one last chance to pick up a resume builder before fattening up on C-USA fluff. Tennessee gets a chance to pick up a much needed non-conference win for the much-maligned, but perhaps just late blooming, SEC.
UCLA @ Washington - The Huskies might be the biggest sleeper in the country, with NBA-quality big man John Brockton and a 4-1 conference record. The winner moves into first place in the Pac-10.
Xavier @ LSU - same drill as the above Memphis v. Tennessee analysis. LSU needs the win a little more desperatly, as their resume is blank and their early SEC play hasn't been good. Xavier can ill-afford another slip-up if they have aspirations of holding a Top 4 seed in March.
Now is the time of year when things start to get interesting. Every time we think we know something about a team (Minnesota's big win at Wisconsin) we turn around and find out perhaps what we thought isn't true (their subsequent loss to Northwestern). It is the time of year when our eyes become more important than box scores when evaluating teams.
For example, is Carolina's narrow road loss in a fantastically well-played game at Wake an indictment of Carolina's fallibility or simply an illustration that the ACC has three true title contenders?
Is the Big East's carnage proof that the top team are all really really good, or an indication that we may have overstated the Top Nine's "greatness?"
And what to make of the Big Ten? Is it possible that there really are nine good teams in this league, and that 8-8 does not preclude someone from tourney discussion? Penn State and Northwestern have each notched impressive victories in league play, but don't forget their body of work before conference play suggests they are just that; "good wins" and not just "bad losses for those slain.
What do we do with the best of the rest? Xavier, Butler, Memphis and Gonzaga are going to pile up some big win totals before Selection Sunday. How many of those February victories are enough to sway minds of the committee? Only Xavier and Butler has an RPI that correlates with their lofty poll status (#5 and #8 respectively), but we shall see what a full A-10 & Horizon schedule does to drag those numbers down.
There are a huge slate of show-me games over the next few weeks to make some more sense of it all, until then, enjoy this week's edition of Brackeetering. Feel free to agree, disagree or swear at us anytime. We are only an email or comment away...
1. Wake Forest - The Deacons survived and thrived in another big test Saturday at Clemson. In the past three weeks they have won at BYU and Clemson and beaten North Carolina. Jeff Teague is making a serious case for first team All-American.
2. Duke - The Dukies beat a better-than-you think FSU team, then followed it up with a solid victory over Georgetown. Another strong case for the ACC as the nation's best league in 2009. We have already set the TiVo for the Jan 28th trip to Wake Forest.
3. Pitt - Yes, the Panthers lost over the weekend at a suddenly resilient Louisville club, but by no means was that a panic button loss. The inability to get quality shots off in the last three minutes was disappointing, but the Panthers rebounded nicely with a pasting of Syracuse.
4. North Carolina - The Tarheels appear to be back on track with their second half demolition of Miami. They host Clemson Wednesday. The Tigers have lost 53 straight at Carolina. Not a typo. 53 straight.
ELITE EIGHT:
5. UConn - The Huskies caught a brief lull in the schedule, but ramp it back up this week playing Villanova and Notre Dame. For some reason, it still feels like something is missing from this UConn squad, but they certainly have Final Four/National Champion talent.
6. Michigan State - The beat keeps on as the Spartans beat two more quality opponents in Penn State and Illinois. This team looks better and better every week.
7. Oklahoma - Oklahoma spanked Texas, then turned around and beat A&M. They are perfectly deserving of a Final Four spot, but no one else fell down. If they can continue to get production from Tyler Griffin and their relatively thin bench, they will be a tough out come March.
8. Louisville - The polls seem to have caught up with March Maniacs. We had the Cards about a half dozen spots high last week, and the Cards rewarded our faith with a big win over #1 Pitt. Terrance Williams has been spectacular, and freshman Samardo Samuels seems to finally be adapting to the college game. This is still one of the two or three most talented teams in the country.
Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order) 9. Clemson - Wake Forest handled them pretty easily in what had to be a disappointing loss for the Tigers. That memory will be easily wiped away if they can break their 53-game losing streak at the Dean Dome Wednesday.
10. Marquette - The Maniac admits to sleeping a little bit on this Marquette team. Perhaps it is the back-loaded nature of their Big East schedule that left me a little wary. They are 5-0, but only Villanova and WVU are in the "Big Nine." In my opinion, there are 4 giants in this league and Marquette hasn't seen one yet.
That said,their backcourt is probably the best in the nation; James, Lazar and McNeal are as good a trio as you will find. Only Duke and UNC can make an argument against them.
Just something to plant in the back of your mind; the Warriors close with: @ G'town, Louisville, @ UConn, @ Pitt, and Syracuse. (the first four, are in my opinion, the Four Giants). Brutal close, but the kind of finishing schedule that can legitimately earn you a #1 seed. (Not that I think they will...2-3 would be respectable). From here, things get tough. You can argue each of these teams up or down real easily. It really is a mess from 11-30 this year. Here is my slant, with an argument for each. Feel free to argue with me.
11. UCLA - A home loss to Arizona State isn't totally inexcusable, except that ASU just lost at home to USC. Parity rears it's ugly head in the Pac-10, however I still feel pretty confident that the Bruins are the best out West.
12. Syracuse - Look, 10-6 in that conference is fine. Syracuse is 1-2 on a brutal stretch that still includes Louisville Sunday. 13. Xavier - Again, I think this team is better than they showed against Duke back in December, but all these A-10 wins are just biding time until March. That said, the Muskies notched a good win at Rhode Island (who also gave Duke fits) 14. Georgetown - Another loss this week for the Hoyas, but their losses (Duke, Pitt, Tennessee, Notre Dame) are all reasonable. Even more they are toughening losses come March.
15. Florida - Surprising pick maybe, but it is hard to ignore the entire SEC as much as pollsters have of late. Texas and Arizona State bring 4 losses to their perch, yet the Gators at 16-2 remain unranked. Their two losses? A close neutral-courter to Syracuse and a 2 point loss to Florida State. They have ripped off a dozen in row and Nick Calathes seems to be settling in as a true leader of this club. 16. Butler- You know my stance on Butler. That said, you have to admit their steady focus in what is supposed to be a "down year" is impressive.
Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on Siena, VMI, Liberty, George Mason, VCU, UTEP, Davidson, Missouri, Utah St, Illinois St, Penn St, Stephen F. Austin, Illinois St, Creighton
There were some great statement wins last night. Georgetown announced its presence with authority in the Big East. Memphis defended their home court against the Bearcats, with tenacity and captured a much needed resume win before C-USA play, and Davidson went to Charleston and beat their stiffest conference foe - putting the SoCon on notice that they could once again run the table.
Tonight, several other teams get a chance to make some noise.
GAME OF THE NIGHT:
7 PM - Illinois @ Purdue
The Illini have been one of the season's pleasant surprises with their 11-1 start. Tonight they get a chance to validate it with an impressive showing at Purdue. The Boilers were ambushed in Mackey by Duke, but are a tough squad to beat in their building. I like the poise and defense of the Boilers tonight.
This place will be rockin' tonight
7 PM UAB @ Butler
UAB got off to a promising start, beating Arizona on the road in the Preseason NIT. Since then, they have backslid a little, losing games to Oklahoma (understandable) and Louisville by 20. Add in loses to BC and Cincinnati, and this is a game they can ill-afford to lose if they have any hope of earning at at-large bid (assuming Memphis wins the C-USA tourney for the umpteenth straight time).
Butler comes in with a lone 3-point loss, at Ohio State, and fresh off a win over Xavier at the Cintas Center. This would be one more feather in the Bulldog's cap come seeding time.
7 PM George Mason @ Dayton
George Mason is the interesting case of a small school exploding so prominently onto the national stage that they begin to become a bit overrated. This is not to say they are not a good team, but just that Dayton is still the prohibitive favorite. This is a huge opportunity for both school, particularly the Patriots, to grab a huge non-conference resume win.
They are good on '08... not THAT good though.
7 PM Clemson @ South Carolina
An in-state skirmish between tow decent ball clubs. Clemson is off to a fantastic start (stop me if you have heard that one before), but better not over look Devan Downey and the Gamecocks. The win over Illinois is a good one. The subsequent win over Miami (FL) was impressive as well. Capture this one tonight, and the Tigers are well positioned for March entering ACC play.
8:05 PM Oklahoma @ Arkansas
Oklahoma has been the most consistent team in the nation (Carolina excluded), and will get a quality test tonight in Fayetteville. Gone are the days of "40 minutes of hell" but the Hogs still get after it on defense. Still, Willie Warren and Blake Griffin might be too much for them to handle. MANIAC'S PICKS: UAB +6.5, Oklahoma +6 (LOCK), Dayton -8, Clemson - 2.5, Purdue -6.5
If you are a Clemson fan, you have done this dance before; start strong, rack up 10,11 wins on cupcakes, then get to the ACC season and have the wheels fall off.
In fact, basketball aficionados are so familiar with the Clemson Cupcake Shuffle, that they are just barely sniffing the Top 25 despite being 11-0.
That should change Monday. The Tigers routed Miami, who going into the season was though to be a 2-4 ACC team. Despite a few early season losses, the Canes have hung around the polls enough to constitute the first true test for the Tigers.
The Tigers were led by outstanding guard KC Rivers' 28 points.
Up Next: Clemson: @ S.Carolina (Dec 30th) Miami: @ St. Johns (Dec 27th)
