Previewing the East Region

East Region

So much for being the #1 overall seed.  Ohio State’s reward for the honor?  Try the bracket most littered with landmines as they attempt to tackle the toughest region in this year’s tournament. 

North Carolina, Syracuse, and Kentucky all enter the tournament playing their best basketball of the season, all boast rosters with NBA talent, and all have the size, quickness, scoring and athleticism needed to make a Final Four run.  Compare those three to the Southeast: Florida (who got hammered by Kentucky in the SEC Final), BYU (whose second best player is suspended and just got hammered by San Diego State in the MWC Final), and Wisconsin who scored THIRTY THREE points in their last game.

Not sure what the committee was thinking with those two brackets.  It certainly leaves a lot of room for conjecture and debate.

What can’t be debated is the depth of talent in the East.  West Virginia is an interesting #5 seed.  They were not spectacular most of the season, and their roster certainly doesn’t leap off the page, but they do own wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Georgetown, Louisville, UConn and Notre Dame.

George Mason could very well be “this year’s George Mason.”  The Patriots are much better overall than the team that made the miracle run back in 2006.  Throw in Xavier, Princeton, Marquette and Washington and you are looking at one ridiculous bracket.

Ten Best Players in the East Region:

Jared Sullinger (Ohio State), Isaiah Thomas (Washington), Harrison Barnes (UNC), Kris Joseph (Syracuse), Tu Holloway (Xavier), Terrance Jones (Kentucky), David Lighty (Ohio State), Tyler Zeller (UNC), William Buford (Ohio State)

First Round Matchups:

#1 Ohio State vs. #16 UT San Antonio/Alabama St.

Next.

#8 George Mason v. #9 Villanova

Villanova is in an absolute free-fall, losers of 11 of their final 16, including a first-round Big East Tourney loss to lowly South Florida.  George Mason would be my tournament darling if not for an unfortunate draw opposite Ohio State.  I love the Patriots getting the win over ‘Nova.

#5 West Virginia  v. #12 UAB/Clemson

I’m honestly stunned UAB is in the field.  Alabama, Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s and Colorado would all have been more worthy selections.  Clemson apparently got just enough late, making it to the Final Four in the ACC Tourney, losing in OT to North Carolina.  I think they used up the remaining gas in their tank – I like UAB advancing, only to get sent home by the Mountaineers.

#4 Kentucky  v. #13 Princeton

This will be another popular upset pick – don’t fall for it.  Remember what happened when the smart, scrappy, underrated Ivy League team (Cornell) met the Wildcats last year?  Yeah, it wasn’t pretty.  Neither will this one.  Wildcats big.

#6 Xavier v #11 Marquette

Xavier always out-performs their seed in the NCAA Tourney.  Marquette is a tough opening draw, but I think Tu Holloway can pace the X-Men to yet another NCAA Tournament win. 

#3 Syracuse v. #14 Indiana State

The Sycamores did a great job knocking off Wichita State and Missouri State en route to the surprising Missouri Valley championship.  However, both of those teams would have given Syracuse a much more entertaining game.  Indiana State has no clue about the length and quickness of the match-up zone that is about to be unleashed on them.  Besides, Larry Bird is out of eligibility.

#7 Washington  v. #10 Georgia

The rumblings over Georgia’s inclusion and overly-high seed will get louder after Washington and Isaiah Thomas run them right off the floor.  It’s honestly hard to justify how the 8-8 Bulldogs got in over the 12-4 Alabama Crimson Tide, who beat Georgia twice, including a blowout win in the SEC Quarters…  Gimme Washington 80-something to Georgia’s low 70’s output.

#2 North Carolina  v. #15 Long Island

 

Long Island is a nice story, but the fairy tale ends quickly against the tremendous size and athleticism of the Tar Heels

Moving Through the Region:

Ohio State will cruise to the Sweet Sixteen, though George Mason will make them earn it.  I like Kentucky avenging last year’s Elite Eight loss to West Virginia, setting up a nice Kentucky-Ohio State rivalry game in the Sweet Sixteen.  In the bottom half, give me Xavier upsetting Syracuse, and North Carolina narrowly dodging Washington in one of the Tourney’s most exhilarating games.

In the Elite 8, Ohio State v. Kentucky will be another classic, but I like Ohio State’s poise and superior perimeter shooting ousting the Wildcats.  Xavier’s run ends at the hands of the ultra-talented Tar Heels, setting up a brilliant regional final.

Ohio State is the best team in the country, in my opinion, and is a tough matchup for the Heels.  Both teams feature outstanding freshman point guards, and it will be a blast to watch Craft and Marshall square off.  Sullinger against the UNC bigs will be spectacular as well.  In the end, I think the defensive brilliance of David Lighty will fluster UNC frosh sensation Harrison Barnes, and that the Heels will lose track of Diebler in transition a few too many times to advance. 

SOUTHEAST CHAMP: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

UPSET PICKS:

Xavier, with Washington being a dangerous sleeper

Can't Win for Losin'

Some teams just can’t win for losing.  Such is life on the bubble eternal for Seth Greenberg and the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Mere days after a “season defining” and “resurrecting” win over the #1 Duke Blue Devils, what does Virginia Tech do??  Opens up their doors for the Boston College Eagles and get their brains beat in on their home floor.

Suffice it to say no one will be storming the court tonight in Blacksburg. 

Hello...hello...anyone?  Anyone wanna storm me tonight?  Guys?

Perhaps no two-game swing in college basketball better analogizes the entire season better than these three days in the life of a Hokie.  In a year in which seemingly no one wants to be the top-ranked team in the country, it also seems like no one wants to play their way out of harm’s way before Selection Sunday.

For every “crippling loss” there is an equal and opposite “season defining” win; and the roles are played intermittently by the same exact teams.  Quick – off the top off you head, are any of the teams I'll list statuses any more clear than the ubiquitous and arbitrary “well, if they______ in their conference tournament then _____”?

Virginia Tech, Boston College, Richmond, Alabama, Tennessee, Baylor, Colorado, Nebraska, Marquette, Butler, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, Southern Miss, UAB, Memphis, Wichita State, Missouri State, Colorado State, UNLV, Washington, Washington State, Georgia… seriously, is there really any difference?

While some might decry it, I’d contest that therein lies the true beauty of college basketball.  For all the conjecture and debate, there will be only one champion on April 4^th.  To find out who that team is, all you have to do is look up at the scoreboard. Until then your guess is as good as mine... well, almost...

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Showdown Saturday in College Hoops -

How big is today’s BYU at San Diego State game?  CBS bought the rights to televise the game nationally.  From it own affiliate, CBS College Sports! 

Yes, Jimmer-Mania is about to take center stage nationally this afternoon at 2PM Eastern, 11AM local time, when two of the nation’s top teams battle for Mountain West supremacy.  BYU took the first contest at home in one of the three or four best college basketball games of the season.  Jimmer was simply stunning, netting an incredible 43 points an erupting onto the national stage and emerging as the leading candidate for National Player of the Year.

Oddly enough, it could be the same matchup today that derails that quest.  San Diego State is good.  REALLY good.  Their 27-1 record gets dismissed because of their conference (which is absurd, I’d take the top half of the MWC over the top half of the Pac-10 and SEC), but the truth is San Diego State is built for the NCAA Tournament.  They defend every bit as well as some of the more vaunted Big East and Big Ten stalwarts.  They have a legit NBA player in their front court in Kwahi Leonard and an underrated elite point guard in DJ Gay.

I think it is going to be real tough for BYU to win today in San Diego.  I like the Aztecs to run the table this season and capture a much-debated #1 in the NCAA Tournament.

Win or lose, just as CBS correctly gambled, I am going to be glued to the TV for what promises to be one of the most exciting and anticipated games of the 2010-2011 regular season.

Maniac's Pick:  San Diego State -3.5

Southern Miss @ UCF Knights -1

UCF was the early season media darling as Marcus Jordan, heir of His Airness, and company took the nation by storm, racing out to a 14-0 start and a #21 national ranking.  The ranking was the first in school history, and with a young ball club under first-year head coach Donnie Jones, the sky was the limit.

Then the Knights went Chicken Little; as in the sky started falling right on top of them.  Whether it was nagging injuries, fatigue, overconfidence, or just simply the fact they played a little over their skis for the first month; things got bad quickly.  The Knights lost eight consecutive games, all in Conference USA, and faded from NCAA Hopeful to ‘C-USA cellar dweller’ in the matter of three weeks.

The Knights have played much better of late, winning three of their past four games, including wins over Tulsa and a road win at then-conference leader UTEP. 

Southern Miss comes into the game with a ton to play for.  The Golden Eagles and Coach Eustachy haven’t gotten much run, but they are actually a legitimate NCAA Bubble team.  They currently sit at 21-6 (9-4 in conference).  With a strong finish they could slip in as a #11 or #12.  Their pair of close, heart-breaking losses to Memphis really hurt them, but the rest of their losses aren’t doing them much good either; Ole Miss, Marshall, Colorado State and SMU.  None of those teams are awful, and CSU is actually pretty good, but none of those losses qualify as “good.”

Southern Miss is is a talented team, and should be favored in today’s game.  But, they aren’t.  Hmmm….that makes this a pretty easy selection.  Give me the Golden Eagles roughing up an overrated UCF squad in Orlando.

PICK:  Southern Miss +1

Please, just one win...please.

Duke Blue Devils -4 @ Virginia Tech Hokies

If it feels like we’ve been in this spot before with Seth Greenberg, it’s because we have.  It’s becoming almost an annual rite of passage that a regular season game in March is vital for the Hokies bubble dreams.

If you’ve been following college hoops for a while, you know that those dreams have usually turned into nightmares.

Tonight’s game represents an enormous chance for the Hokies to finally get a quality night’s sleep on Selection Sunday.  With a win tonight at home the Hokies Dance ticket is essentially punched.  The crowd in Blacksburg will be a huge advantage for them as well, with ESPN Gameday and all the festivities than accompany it going on.  However, this isn’t Duke’s first rodeo and certainly not a new experience facing a hostile crowd.

The correlation I like to use is this: Remember the Kansas @ Kansas State game two weeks ago?  It was an “upset” but one that followed a predictable formula.  Elite team travels to road team who view them as their chief rival.  The home team has a less-than-great record due to some losses early, but has played very well the two weeks leading up to the game.  The home team was highly ranked at the beginning of the season but has since been forgotten about.  The “forgotten”, inspired, talented and desperate home team plays their best game of the season, pulls off the huge “upset.”

Fans storm the floor.  Chaos ensues.

You know the recipe.  That’s exactly what is cooking up in Blacksburg, the perfect storm brewing for a huge bowl of upset soup.  The numbers defy it, but sometimes the human element outweighs the statistics.  Gimme the Hokies in a valiant home last-stand not only covering, but handing the Dukies their third loss of the season.

PICK:  Virginia Tech +4
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We Waited for This? End Game Confusion Dooms Vols to Loss #10

The logic for Tennessee was, hold the rope until Coach Pearl returns, then finish with a second-half flurry once Coach returned...

So much for logic.  With the game on the line, Coach Pearl strangely elected to let his team play.  In their jumbled confusion and panic, they may have put their NCAA Tournament hopes in jeopardy.

Tennessee had a chance to extend to a three point lead, but continued their dismal foul shooting and missed the front end of a crucial one-and-one.  Florida rebounded, got the outlet pass to Erving Walker, and the smallest man on the floor made the biggest play of the night.  Walker raced all the way down the floor, Tyus Edney-stlye, and scored a driving layup to give the Gators a 61-60 lead with 14.7 seconds remaining.

Tennessee looked shaky inbounding the ball and advancing it into the front court.  They appeared to be confused as to what set they wanted to run and whether or not a screen was to be set or waived off.  However, with two timeouts left in his pocket, Pearl elected to do nothing.  The last possession result ended up being a Melvin Going's step-back contested three pointer that clanged harmlessly away from the rim and sealed the Vols doom.

I agree Coach - Just call the TIMEOUT!!

The win, coupled with the Kentucky loss today, all but seals up the SEC East for the Gators at 9-2 and everyone else at least two games back in the loss column, plus the tiebreak edge from head-to-head wins.

For Tennessee, it is loss #10 - and right back balancing precariously on the bubble.  It is a particualrly tough loss to swallow, failing to get off a quality last second shot with timeouts in their pocket, and never getting the ball in the hands of their best shooter and scorer, Scotty Hopson.

The Vols now face near must-win games in their next two home games, against South Carolina and Georgia.  They own some simply fantastic non-conference wins; VCU, Missouri State and more importantly, Pitt and Villanova.  However, they have now lost three straight, have ten losses overall and are only 5-5 in the good, but certainly not great, SEC.

For the Gators, the win keeps them locked in to win the SEC, and continue their march towards being the Top 4 seed that every analysts picks to be upset in Round One.

The Fab Forty Five - Feb 10th, 2011

The Maniac has a slightly different way of looking at the NCAA Tournament field than a lot of the other Bracketologists, Bubble-ologyists, Bracket Analysts, etc.  Rather than looking at the bubble teams independantly and comparing them historically to previous year's fields to make projections, we focus more on how many slots are available and who exactly is jockeying for them.

Here is a quick rundown of the math: In 2011 the field is expanding to 68 teams.  There are 31 conferences with automatic bids (30 conference tournaments and the Ivy, who instead sends their regular season champ).  Simple math leaves 37 at-large bids up for grabs.  Normal bracket math focuses on those 37 slots, and plays some guesswork with who might "steal" a bid from one of the lesser conferences by winning the conference tournament and taking a slot from some otherwise deserving team.

Let's all assume together that the six BCS league tournaments will likely be won by a team that was going to the tournament anyhow.  I know on rare occassions someone sneaks up out of nowhere (most recently in the SEC with Georgia in 08 and Mississippi State in 09), but it happens very infrequently.  Let's also go on a limb and assume that the A-10 and Mountain West will also be won by a team already on safe ground.

Adding those eight conference bids back into the pool gives us 45 slots available.  Focusing on being inside that 45 will nearly automatically guarantee entree' into the Dance.  It is possible that a few additional bids will creep into the mix; for example if Utah State (who is IN) wins the WAC Tournament for example.  But anything inside of the Fab Fo' Five and a team should be safe.

Here's The Maniac's Fab Fo' Five as of February 10th:

LOCKS (21):  These are teams that are IN barring an absolutely ludicrous late season collapse. For that reason, we are being very judicious with inclusion; for example, teams like Washington, St. Mary's and Vanderbilt shouldn't have to sweat on Selection Sunday, but still have a little work to do before sliding into the absolute LOCK category.

Duke, North Carolina, Pitt, Georgetown, Villanova, Notre Dame, Louisville, UConn, Syracuse, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Florida, Kentucky, Arizona, Xavier, San Diego St, BYU.

This leaves 24 bids remaining in the at-large pile.  Our second group is for teams knocking on the door that still have some work to do before exhaling.

GOOD SHAPE (12): These teams would be IN today, but still need to avoid bad losses down the stretch to feel safe.  The final three teams (St. Mary's, Wichita State and Utah State could help out fellow bubble-sitters by winning their conference tourneys and adding a bid back into the pile)

Temple, West Virginia, Baylor, Illinois, Minnesota, UAB, George Mason, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, St. Mary's, Wichita State, Utah State

BUBBLE (17):  We are now left with just twelve bids remaining and a lot of teams with a good case to be made.  Everyone on this list is one loss away from falling out, with plenty of teams waiting to replace them.  You'll notice 17 teams in this category; obviously five of them are on the outside looking in - those five I will purposely list last.

Virginia Tech, Florida State, Richmond, Marquette, St. John's, Memphis, Kansas State, UCLA, Texas A&M, VCU, UCLA, Georgia, Southern Miss, Missouri State, Butler, Cincinnati, Old Dominion

WAITING IN THE WINGS (11):  These are teams I have OUT as of today - but certainly can creep back in the mix with a strong finish and some wins over conference teams slotted ahead of them currently.

Maryland, Clemson, Boston College, Duquesne, Colorado, Michigan State, UTEP, Washington State, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State

BURIED, BUT NOT (OFFICIALLY) DEAD:  Here's some long, long shots that are going to need an unbelievable finish (like running the table) to jump back in the mix

Dayton, Nebraska, Michigan, Princeton (should win Ivy), Colorado State, Drexel, SMU, New Mexico, Alabama, South Carolina, Northwestern, SMU, Arkansas, Mississippi State

Michigan State is a Disappointment - But Should it be THAT Shocking?

There is no question that 13-9 and on the outside of the bubble is an unusual and disappointing predicament for Tom Izzo and his Spartans.  He, and they, afterall, are one of the premier templates for consistent excellence in college basketball.

But should their less than stellar play be as big of a shock as it is being received as?

Here is an alternative viewpoint to consider.  Last year Michigan State entered the NCAA tournament at a solid 24-8, but only a 5th seed.  To place it in a different context, that would have them somewhere between the 17th and 20th best team in the country.

State's road through the NCAA Tourney was equally precarious.  In the first round, they barely dodged a big upset, slipping past #12 seed New Mexico State 70-67.  In the second round, an even more daring escape, when a desperate buzzer-beating three by Korie Lucious found the bottom of the net.  The shot was intentional, but Lucious receiving the ball certainly wasn't - a freak deflection/pass landed his way and Korie, to his credit seized the spotlight.  The Spartans won 85-83 and survived and advanced.

If this shot doesn't fall...

Korie Lucious has since been permanently dismissed from the team for an unspecified third violation of team conduct.

The Sweet Sixteen got even sweeter for the Spartans when Northern Iowa stunned top team in the country Kansas, knocking the biggest obstacle in that half of the bracket to the wayside.  Sparty took advantage of their good fortune by beating the upstart Panthers 59-52.

The Elite Eight?  Well, maybe "elite" is too grand a term in this instance.  After the bottom half of the bracket fell apart as well with Ohio State and Evan Turner and Georgetown bowing out, suddenly the "best region ever" looked a lot less daunting.  Sixth seeded Tennessee advanced to meet Michigan State with a trip to Indy on the line.  Again, more heart-palpitating last second moments smiled the way of Sparty, as they advanced with 70-69 win.

Next stop, the Final Four. In a game that set big time college basketball back to the pre-shot clock era, the Spartans finally bowed out 52-50 to Butler.

Suppose for a second that either of those first round games broke the other way with a different last-second moment of good fortune?  Would Michigan State have entered this season in the Top 5?  Top 10 even?

This season is no doubt been a disappointment.  It's just that perhaps some of the disappointment should also be shared by those of us in the prognostication business as well...

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How Sweet it is...

At 32-20-1 (and stealing all the money in every pool as Butler continues to rack up points), the Maniac will continue to steadfastly make all his gambling-inclined readers a paycheck.

Tonight's games have a lot to live up to if they want to compete with last night's slate.  As a die-hard X fan, I must admit that oddly, for the first time this decade, I am not feeling hurtful pangs at the Muskies tourney exit.  That game, quite simply, was a magical as anything I can remember as a Xavier fan.  And the Muskies have been in some pretty great ones in the past five years (sadly, many of them on the short end of a Greg Oden uncalled flagrant foul...now THAT one I haven't let go of yet.)

OK, on to the picks:

Ohio State -4.5 v. Tennessee:  The Vols have played well so far in the tourney, and play an aggressive, tempo-pushing style that could goad the already-thin Buckeyes into some disastrous foul trouble problems.  That said, the Vols have been playing a little over their skis for the past few months and are a clear quality level below Ohio State.  Oh, and the Buckeyes have Evan Turner and you don't. 

This tournament is setting up nicely for a John Wall/Evan Turner National Championship that would be simply fantastic.  Gimme the Bucks laying the 5.

Michigan State -1 v. Northern Iowa:  All week long I have been hearing these experts saying that Northern Iowa is actually a better team than Sparty and that this isn't even an "upset" when the Panthers win.  Um.  No they aren't.  Seriously, I LOVED that game against Kansas and Ali's Knockout punch.  But Michigan State is superiorly athletic and much quicker.  They are the favorite, even without Kalin Lucas.  With Lucas?  Gimme Sparty and Izzo's March Magic with ease, without him?   I still like Izz with the saavy in a nailbiter.

St. Mary's v Baylor -5:  St. Mary's has played as well an anyone this side of Kentucky in the NCAA Tourney so far, and Omar Samhan is on the list with Jordan Crawford as most dazzling individual performer to this point.  That said, Baylor os a terrible matchup for St. Mary's.  Baylor has the best backcourt left in the tournament (other than maybe Kentucky) and boast a team full of long, quick athletes, highlighted by one of the best interior defenders in the country, Ekpe Udoh.  Factor in that tonight is a virtual HOME GAME for the Bears, and it starts to look like the night's second tightest point spread should have been even wider.  Gime Baylor laying the five.

Duke -8.5 v Purdue:  Purdue has fought valiantly to make the Sweet 16.  That run ends tonight at the hands of the most overlooked team in the country, ironically, the Duke Blue Devils.  Use the google search bar on the top of the site and look for my column on LAST years HOME GAME Purdue had against Duke.  That was at HOME with a healthy Robbie Hummel against a Duke team that still thought Greg Paulus was a better PG option than John Scheyer.  Purdue is tough enough to hang around but has no shot of beating Duke tonight.  I never put guarantees on games.  I guarantee Duke wins tonight.  No doubt.  I'll even lay the eight.  

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The Maniac is 32-20-1 for the entire NCAA Tournament
For more brilliant predictions, opinions and senseless drivel, 
visit: MarchManiacs.com

Sunday's NCAA Tournament Round Two Picks, and the G.O.A.T.

What can you say?  With all the buzzer-beaters and OT-thrillers, without a doubt my favorite shot of the NCAA Tournament was delivered by Ali Faroqhmanesh of Northern Iowa.  With the Panthers looking seriously like they were about the throw away an epic upset-bid, they finally "broke" the press (more like "inbounded the ball")  Ali held the ball of the right three point arc, the only man for No. Iowa on that side of the floor with three Kansas defenders back.  This is where you hold the ball, wait to be fouled.  Hit your free throws, hope Kansas missed on their end and grind the last, torturing second out of the game.

Faroqhmanesh had a different idea, and why I love this shot, you can see both ideas on his face.  He thinks about taking the shot, almost looks around, then hesitates.  And in a split-second you can see him (correctly) assess the situation, realize his team's best chance was for him to stick the high-wire three, put them up four, and GRAB the upset win by the throat.

And that's exactly what Ali did, and that, as least for now to the Maniac, makes Ali the Greatest Of All Time!!  Ok, a little much.  But perhaps my favorite non-buzzer beater in tourney history.

With one mighty shot from Ali, down goes Frazier!  Er...Kansas.

Let's see what might be on tap today as the Maniac continues to pick every game in the tourney against the spread.  (23-17 entering today)

Gonzaga +7 v. Syracuse -- Onawaku is still out, which leaves the 'Cuse depending on a seven foot freshman, and some kind whistles.  They play a famously thin rotation, losing one of your seven guys, and only premier big, is a problem.  Just the kind of problem the Zags can exploit with Robert Sacre and Elias Harris.  I feel like I have written this the past eight years in my tourney column, but I feel as comfortable with the ball in the hands of Matt Boldin as I do with any other player in the country.  Not sure the Zags win straight-up (though I definitely have the Cuse on upset alert) but I like them with the seven for sure.

Georgia Tech +7 v Ohio State -- If the Buckeyes can stay focused, this tournament opened up really well for them to return to the Final Four for the third time in ten years and second in four.  However, the Buckeyes haven't blown out a lot of teams, and Georgia Tech certainly has the talent to play with any team in the country when they play well.  I like Ohio State, and don't think they'll need theatrics to accomplish it, but not sure I'm willing to lay seven.

Michigan State +1 v. Maryland  -- Nothing a feel better about than betting on Tom Izzo in March.  This game is a true and honest toss-up, so when in doubt, play the tourney odds.  Plus, Kalin Lucas looked fantastic in round one and seems to have a knack for big moments.

Missouri v. West Virginia -6 -- This line feels way to small.  West Virginia is more than equipped to counter the frenetic style that Mizzou will throw at them.  It really feels like the 'Eers and Kentucky might be on a collision course for a classic.  Gimme WVU, lay the points.  This is probably my favorite game of the day.

Cornell +5 v. Wisconsin -- Wisconsin's claim to fame is knocking off unsuspecting foes in the tournament with their plodding, slow-down, methodical style.  Um, that won't work against Cornell.  In fact, it plays right into their wheelhouse.  I like Cornell straight-up, but will take the five gladly.

Xavier (PICK) v. Pitt -- Hard to believe, but this is the first pick-em of the NCAA Tournament, and it is bestowed upon the Maniac's Muskies.  I've yapped that Pitt is overrated most of the season (and most of last..and the year before...).  Well, if I'm wrong, it seems like a lot of you will be able to throw it in my face.  Give me X and Jordan Crawford getting a little revenge for last year's Sweet Sixteen ouster.

Texas A&M v. Purdue +2.5 -- Boiler Up!  I'm staying on board until they meet the Dukies next week.  JuJuan Johnson and E'Twaun made the Maniac look smart against Siena, here's betting they do it again against Aggies, surprisingly only the third Big 12 team remaining...

Cal v. Duke -6 -- Cal has played well of late, and Washington's blistering run makes one at least pause for a second in regard to quickly dismissing the Pac 10.  However, Duke is a whole different animal than the erratic Louisville Cards.  The Dukies won't no-show today, and I'm not sure Cal has the ammo to hang around.  Give me the Devils easy.

Read More at MarchManiacs.com

Saturday's NCAA Tournament Round Two Picks

At 19-13 against the spread, the Maniac is rueing the fact that his dream of living in a Bahamian sports book during the entire NCAA Tournament seems more and more like a good idea.  Seriously, someone tell my wife this is way better than a 401(k)...

OK,  let's continue onward with Saturday's picks.

St Mary's +5 v. Villanova:   This matchup is very, very similar to the Richmond one for the Gaels.  Obviously Scottie Reynolds and the Villanova backcourt is a slight upgrade, but the fact remains they have no semblance of an inside presence.  I think this bodes well for St. Mary's, who is coincidentally on fire.  If they can get some offense from Dellavadova, I like St. Mary's to pull the upset.

Murray St v. Butler -5:  It's funny, but I'm not sure Butler caught a break when the Racers toppled Vandy in a round one buzzer-beater.  However, I'm going to stick with my "Butler can get to the Final Four" belief and trust they will handle their business today.  One odd plus in the Bulldogs favor, they will NOT overlook Murray State.  The Racers are very similar to some of the teams the face in the Horizon (very, very similar stylistically to 2008-09 Cleveland State).

Ohio +8 v. Tennessee:  I think the Vols win, but Ohio can push tempo enough to get some buckets in transition.  It is perversly ironic that Armon Bassett can make a true national name for himself today after being booted off the Indiana Hooisers two years ago for a litany of off-court issues against the team that was the 2010 poster child for off-the-court problems.

Northern Iowa v. Kansas -11.5:  Rock CHALK.  I like Northern Iowa, but just don't think they have near the quickness, quality size or depth to make the Jayhawks sweat.

Old Dominion v. Baylor -5:  I continue to maintain that Baylor is one of the most talented teams in the country and a real Final Four sleeper team.  Old Dominion is one of the best defensive teams in the country, however unlike Notre Dame, Baylor has two guards who can create off the bounce, both for themselves and for teammates. 

Washington v. New Mexico +2:  I'm not willing to go absolute on this, but I have a sneaking suspicion this is the first time a #11 was a Vegas favorite over a #3 in the NCAA Tournament.  Someone with more freetime that me can look it up, in the meantime lets just agree it is certainly odd.  That said, surely that puts another log on the New Mexico fire.  They looked lethargic and avergae Thursday night.  I think they play better today and beat Washington in a hard fought game.  However much will hinge on whether or not the New Mexico forwards can contain Quincy Pondexter, as they don't have a true natural match for him defensively.

BYU v. Kansas State - 4.5:  BYU is a heck of a good basketball team and the Steve Nash comparison for Jimmer Fredette is a good one.  However Kansas State is very solid with Clemente and Pullen in the backcourt, and I think their length from the 3 & 4 spot can negate some of BYU's perimeter shooting.  BYU  will have to shoot exceptionally well to beat the Wildcats, gimme K-State laying the points.

Wake Forest v. Kentucky -9.5:  This is a great and interesting test for UK.  Wake actually matches up very, very well.  Ish Smith might be the only guard in the tourney as quick with the basketball as John Wall.  That matchup alone is worth tuning in for.  This game also features three LEGIT  NBA bigs, in DeMarcus Cousins, Pat Patterson and Farouq Al Aminu.  The key to this game?  Can McFarland stay out of foul trouble for the Deacons?  If not, they are going to be way to thin inside to contain the Cats.  I think the Big Blue is peaking at the right time, but I'm not wild about laying 10.  Tough pick, but gimme the Cats.

Day Two - Maniac's Picks

Man, what a great opening afternoon to the tourney.  Two games to OT, one one-pointer and another buzzer beater!  And I realize it is still a little early to gloat (halftime, Ohio leading by 12), but I can't say I haven't been warning you all about Georgetown (and Villanova...)

Morgan State v. West Virginia -17 -- yawner, gimme Huggy and the 'Eers.

Xavier -1 v. Minnesota -- Full disclosure, I am fully biased.  However, I really think X matches up well, both are big, both have athletic guards.  Xavier has Jordan Crawford and never, ever underperforms in the tourney.  I'm honestly surprised they are a near pick-'em, but Richmond's turd sandwich today does make you pause a little bit on the A-10.

Cornell v Temple -4 -- Sticking with the A-10.  Cornell is a nice ball club.  They remind me of Notre Dame football a few years ago; their signature moment of the season is an "almost" win.  The Red gave Kansas all they could handle in Phog, while Temple got their backside handed to them by the same Jayhawks.  That said, Temple should be at least a #3 seed in this tourney, and I think they come out playing like it.

Siena v. Purdue -4 -- Boiler Up!  Seriously, I'll put my neck out on this one.  Purdue will play better than anyone else thinks.  They;ve had a full week to adapt their offensive attack without Hummel.  They have one of the better bigs in the tourney in JuJuan Johnson, and one of the better scoring off-guards in E'Twaun Moore.  Purdue can't get to Indy, but they can get out of the first weekend.

Clemson -1.5 v. Missouri -- This game will breakneck fast and furious.  In the end, I like the Booker boys and Clemson in a fantastic game.

Oakland +11 v Pitt -- So far, so bad for the BEast.  Now enter traditional under-performer Pitt.  Gimme the Grizzlies of Oakland with the points in yet another Big East BIG scare.

Wofford +10 v. Wisconsin -- Gimme Wofford in a game that will be Waw-ful to watch.  The tempo alone of the Badgers make a 10-point cushion like getting 15 or 16. 

Utah State +3.5 v. TexasA&M -- The fact that they are both nicknamed "Aggies" is so over-reported it is beoming Hannah-Montana-like annoying.  However, it is a really intriguing game between a Big 12 big boy and the rare at-large entrant from the WAC.  The WAC was actually a higher rated conference RPI-wise than Conference USA and the WCC, which surprises most people.  Meaning, Utah State is actually pretty darn good.  I think they show it with their three point precision tomorrow.

Florida State v. Gonzaga +1.5 -- I still like this Gonzaga team and am surprised they fell all the way to an #8.  I thought they were 5/6 before the St. Mary's game, and perhaps the Gaels proved today, that loss wasn't nearly as bad as it seemed.  The Zags are battle-tested and steady at the point with Boldin.  Besides, FSU is another perennial tourney under-achiever.  I love the Zags straight-up but will gladly take the point.

Georgia Tech +1.5 v. Oklahoma State -- A real good game with some premier talent, like seemingly every game in the Kansas bracket.  Gani Lawal, Derrick Favors and James Anderson will provide some real fireworks, but Iman Shumpert is probably the key.  Tech is bigger and better inside, can  their point guard control the ball well enough to let the bigs wreck havoc?  I think they can. 

New Mexico St v Michigan St -12 -- Despite New Mexico's stunning drop all the way to the 12-line (joke - read two days ago's column), I love the Spartans.  Beware the Izz of March.  Isn't it becoming rote at this point to see Izzo and the Spartans outplay their seed?  Kalin Lucas is fully healthy and I like the Spartans to roll.

Arkansas Pine Bluff v. Duke -23 -- Dukies kill 'em.  Not even semi-quality television.

Vermont  v. Syracuse -16 -- Taylor Coppenrath ain't walkin' through that door!  Ah...now I know who my real college hoop fans are.  Only 16?  Seriously?  Gimme the Orange.  They'll miss Onawaku, but not tomorrow.

UC Santa Barbara v Ohio State -16.5 -- Sorry Rome, can't find any justification to take the Gauchos.  This is a nice opportunity for the Ohio State bench to play in the NCAA's, since they usually go only six deep.


Houston +9 v. Maryland -- Everyone's talking about Grevies Vasquez.  After tomorrow you'll know who Aubrey Coleman is.  Our loyal reader's remember him from our Mid-Season All-American team, I have a funny feeling the rest of the country might soon.  His numbers (26&7 as a guard) are jaw-dropping.  I'll take the nine, but also putting the Terps on official Maniac Upset-Watch.

Cal v. Louisville -1 -- This is a coin-flip; heads Edgar Sosa is great, tails he murders the Cards' season.  I'll go heads for tomorrow.





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Like Christmas Eve - A Maniac Thank You

By far the best analogy I heard all day came from a friend of mine describing the feeling tonight for "us."  And when I say "us" I mean you and me; the people who read and write this sort of drivel that is largely irrelevant to 99% of the population.  It is a culture shock here in Florida after our recent move.  Sports radio stations go out of there way to tell you what a niche sport college hoops is, and that other than these three weeks, no one cares...

So, for those of us giddy tonight on "Christmas Eve", a big huge THANK YOU from the Maniac.  I like to joke that we have 22 readers, and the truth is, I have no idea how many of you actually read on a daily (or annual...) basis.  I do know we registered nearly 7,000 hits this year, so a big thanks to Mom's itchy mouse finger, and to all of you out there following along.  It is honestly really cool to know you're out there, anticipating the bounty under tomorrow's tree, just like me.

I'd like to offer you a true and sincere, Happy Holidays.

Now onto the Madness:

Maniac's Day One Picks:

BYU - 4 v Florida:  I hope my "Florida should be in the NIT" bias doesn't cloud my judgment. On a neutral floor I just believe Jimmer Fredette and the Cougs are 10-12 points better.  I like BYU laying the points.

Notre Dame -2.5 v. Old Dominion:  The Irish are as hot as anyone in the country right now.  ODU is a really solid team, and I think they'd be in this field regardless of whether or not they won the underrated CAA Conference Tournament or not (they did).  ODU could get to the Sweet Sixteen, but they match-up really poorly with Notre Dame and really don't have an answer for Harangody.  I like Tory Jackson maintaining his recent senior surge into, dare I say, "smart game manager" and the Irish getting a date with Baylor in Round Two.

Robert Morris +18 v. Villanova:  I'm not worried about 'Nova...yet.  However, they strike me as an undersized, slumping team that is a prime candidate to let a team hang around for just long enough to get people a little jazzed...Gimme RM and the points.

Murray State +3.5 v. Vanderbilt:  OK, Vegas has confirmed my gut-feel that Murray State is a legit threat to pull off one of the more eye-opening upsets in round one.  I thought I'd get a few more points, but I honestly think Murray State has the tough blend of moxy and quickness that can give a more tempo-controlling team like the 'Dores fits.  Add in the fact that Vandy's record is slightly inflated due to their home-court dominance and this game has "upset" written all over it.  It may not be a game I'd advise touching in Vegas in terms of value (I'd think Murray would get 6-7), but I'm picking all 16 games, so gimme the Racers and the points.

North Texas v. Kansas State -16 - As long as it isn't the Jayhawks on the other bench, K-State is pretty solid.  Look for them to roll in the tourney debut in an unprecedentedly high seed.

Sam Houston State v. Baylor-11 -- I love the Bears as a real Final Four sleeper.  They haven't won a tourney game in over fifty years.  That draught will be all but over by halftime.  Gimme the Bears big.

St. Mary's v. Richmond -2 -- This is a real funky matchup, as St. Mary's will struggle with the quickness of Richmond's backcourt, while at the same time I don't think Richmond has an answer inside for Omar Samhan inside.  It really comes down to controlling tempo and knocking down shots...which is a tough thing to predict.  However, I really like Richmond as a true sleeper in the tournament, so I'll take the tough two-point lay early and roll with the Spiders.

Butler -2.5 v UTEP -- Everyone is so enamored with how Butler's Matt Howard can possibly contain Dereck Caracter they forgot to factor in how is UTEP going to control Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward?  Oh, and Butler hasn't lost in several months.  They've fared fine against upper echelon competition in Xavier and Ohio State (albeit without ET).  Not to get ahead of ourselves, but IF they Bulldogs can get past the Miners, they could go on a nice run.  They match up real well with Syracuse, should they get that far.  They have versatile bigs and good shooting guards who don't turn the ballover and avoid getting trapped...I'm just saying..

Northern Iowa +1 v. UNLV -- The 8/9 toss-up, I'll take the size and poise of the Panthers.  I like the MWC, but not sold on UNLV.  They are a little erratic offensivly, though Lon Kruger is a historically good tournament coach.  Hmmm... almost talked myself back into UNLV.  Nah, gimme the Panthers (hard hitting analysis, huh?)

ETSU v. Kentucky -20 -- GO Big Blue!  Kentucky plays poorly against poor teams and excels against the very good ones.  Against the great ones?  You could argue no one knows yet, seeing as I'm not sure anyone in the SEC fits the bill, and annual tests against Indiana, North Carolina and Louisville weren't the stern test they look like on paper.  Can Coach Cal convince them Round One is the appropriate time to turn on the full-time greatness?  I'm not sure, but I'll lay the twenty fairly comfortably.

Washington v. Marquette -1.5 -- Very quietly Washington has put together the pieces of a shattered season and looks closer to the team ranked #15th in the pre-season polls.    Marquette is undersized, underappreciated and pound-for-pound as tough as any team in the country.  I'll take the gutty Eagles in a great ballgame.


Ohio +13.5 v. Georgetown -- Ohio is pretty lightly regarded and coming out of the WAY down MAC as the upset-tourney champ.  So why are they only getting 13.5?  Call this a straight contrarian pick.  Sometimes when an unknown team is getting WAY too few points, someone knows something I don't. 

Kansas -26 v Lehigh -- Who cares right?  I'd never actually bet a 1/16 game, so for today's column I'll take the Hawks blowing 'em out and coasting to a comfy 30-something win.

Wake Forest v Texas -5 -- I know, Texas is awful.  But nine weeks ago they were #1 in the country.  It wouldn't be the first time (see: Arizona 2009) a talent-laden team got it together for one last week of fight.  This 8/9 game has more NBA'ers on display than any I can remember, and if I'm Kentucky I really would prefer Wake in Round Two...

Montana v New Mexico -9 -- Alford's Lobo's have to be sick of seeing all the mock brackets that have them bowing out in the first weekend.  I this one could be surpriingly easy for Darrington Hobson and crew. 

San Diego State +3.5 v. Tennessee -- I think the Aztecs second-chance points can be the undoing of Bruce Pearl and the Vols, particualrly if they can get Chism in any kind of foul trouble.  I'm surprised you can get 3 points and SDSU.  It's a good value pick at the very least.

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Rock! Chalk! Chalk?

I admit, I have probably watched more college hoops than most of your TV analysts, and certainly more than John Thompson (who on the CBS Radio bracket unveiling, reacted to New Mexico State's #12 seed with a perplexing, "I thought they might'a did better.  New Mexico is pretty good now"). Yes John, they are pretty good.  Like a #3 seed.  This team is a different team than that team.  But he is right, Ex-Zay-Vey-Er is always dangerous in the "tuna-mint."

Seriously, I almost jerked my car off the road on accident.  By the way, my resume is attached to the bottom of this column...

Oh, if only someone would pay me the same ammount of money to cover hoops, the world would be a better place, both for me and my twenty two (or so) loyal readers.

But alas, the point.  After watching way, (yes honey, I agree, WAY too many) games this year, I admit we are right back where we started.  Kansas is the best team in the country.  They are the only team without a discernable fatal flaw.  Kentucky?  Too young, too sloppy at times with the ball.  Duke?  I think "too" is generally attached to Duke in so many ways it scantly bears repeating.  Syracuse?  To thin up front, especially with Onawaku dinged up.  West Virginia?  Point guard issues; too many turnovers, not a geat foul shooting team.  Kansas State & Baylor?  Good guards, decent interior defenders.  K-State's 0-3 versus big boy Kansas is a big red flag, and Baylor hasn't won a tourney game in over 50 years.  These lights are a lot brighter than the ones in Waco.  Villanova? In a total tailspin.  Georgetown?  Tantilizing, but why have they lost so many games (for the last time annoying emailers - Freeman did NOT miss as many games as you think.  They just LOST a lot).

Ohio State?  Not much depth, and despite winning the Big Ten tourney, LOOK at the Michigan and Illinois boxscore.  You won't see any teams that poor after round one.  Purdue, Michigan St and Wisconsin all make the Big Ten seem...well, Little.

Speaking of "little" could it be the year of the little guy?  Butler, Temple, Xavier, Richmond and Gonzaga hardly seem "mid" major by now (with the exception of the Spiders).  But does anyone really see any of these clubs getting all the way to Indy?  (my sleeper Final Four team is easily Butler, and it is all match-ups and draw and a versitile 4-man who can work in the high paint against the zone and pass out of traps).  But aside from me - anyone honestly see this group crashing the party??

Which brings us back to square one.  How do you convincingly go anywhere other than the KU Rock "Chalk?"  I hate the brackets with the three one seeds in the Final Four, and then the edgy "off the wall" #2.  Upsets are going to happen this year, but picking them is anyone's best guess. 

I can make a pretty good statistical arguement for about forty different scenarios, all different depending on a few key plays, a few kind whistles, and the siezmic changes in the landscape of the tourney that follow.

So, one final admonishment to all of you with some machismo - leave KU off your CHAMP line.  Are they the best team in the field?  Yes.  Does the best team ALWAYS win?  No.  In fact, in the past 10 years it has happened four, arguably five times.  (UNC 06 & 09, Mich St 00, UConn 04 - and I suppose UF in 07). 

Anything can happen, and let's be honest, saying "I told you so" if Kansas wins won't have near the satisfaction if you hit on Ohio State, West Virginia, Duke, or ANY of the field...

Besides, have you seen Kansas's uniforms?  Mom says they're terrible...



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