Thursday's Stock Report

Consider this part two of the series, updated with some fresh Thursday results from a couple of very big games with bubble implications

STOCK UP:

Belmont - With tonight's win the Bruins moved to 24-4, and 16-1 in the Atlantic Sun.  The A-Sun is nowhere in the stratosphere of an at-large berthing conference, however, considering that three of Belmont's losses are to Tennessee twice and Vanderbilt - none by more than nine, and one could make a very compelling case for the Bruins should they fall in the conference tourney.

Arizona - Very quietly Sean Miller has done on of the better coaching jobs in the country, and has the Wildcats poised not only to return to the Tourney, but to claim a Top 4 (I have them as a #3 today) seed.  Tonight's 79-70 win over Washington State was a big one for Arizona, and a huge blow to the Cougars bubble hopes.


Alabama - Even more quietly than Arizona, Anthony Grant has done the most stunning reclamation project in the nation, and has guided Alabama legitimately back into the NCAA Tourney discussion.  Tonight's win over LSU is nothing to shout about, but the Crimson Tide's 9-2 mark in conference sure is.  While Tennessee and Georgia are tripping all over themselves, Alabama is making early season losses to St. Peter's, Iowa, Providence and Seton Hall seem like distant memories.  Unfortunatly the Committee's memories are pretty long...

It may be too much to overcome, but right now, I'd give the Tide the nod over Georgia.

STOCK DOWN:


Minnesota - Losing to Penn State is not a good way to impress the Committee late.  The 66-63 loss doesn't knock the Gophers out, but it does put them in a very precarious position with a lot of pressure to finish strong and possibly even win a few games in the Big Ten tourney.

Clemson - If you appear in the Maniac's "Stock Down" in consecutive editions, things aren't going well.  Tonight's 79-71 loss to NC State should pretty much seal the Tiger's NIT destination.



Richmond - Tonight's 73-53 loss to Temple was really ugly.  The Spiders still have life, but are dancing right on the fine #12 seed/NIT line.  Duquesne has to be thrilled with the lopsided defeat, and in the Maniac's mock bracket, they have officially slid ahead of Richmond in the pecking order.

Xavier "Tu" Much for Richmond

Very quietly Xavier is erasing their slow start and easing into "tourney lock" status.  Today's 85-62 win at Richmond gives the Muskies a two game cushion over the Spiders and Temple Owls, plus they have already earned head-to-head wins over both.

Junior Tu Holloway, the nation's sixth leading scorer, continued his A10 Player of the Year campaign by scoring a career high 33 points, including a sure-fire highlight when he inbounded the ball off the unsuspecting backside of a Richmond player and picked up the carom and laid the ball in the basket for a thrilling halftime buzzer beater.  His continued excellent play doesn't get a ton of national attention, but he is certainly in the mix for second or third team All-American status.

More importantly Holloway and backcourt-mate Mark Lyons showed the poise and steady ballhandling that made it not only impossible, but foolilsh to try to press the Muskies.  They were able to break the pressure with ease all afternoon.  Then on the defensive end, both helped spearhead the 1-2-2 zone that stymied Richmond for the second consecutive year.

With the win Xavier moved to 15-5 (7-0), and remains in a first place tie with the surprising Duquesne Dukes.  For Richmond, their bubble-status gets even dicier with the loss and puts some real pressure on the Spiders to avoid many more missteps if they hope to earn a repeat trip to the Big Dance. Their next four games are all should-wins that have now become must-wins for Richmond.

UP NEXT:

XAVIER: @Charlotte, St. Louis, @Georgia

RICHMOND: St. Joeseph's, @Fordham, @George Washington

Atlantic Ten Showdown in Dayton as Richmond Looks to Steal Road Win

I've decided to queue the Atlantic 10 update until tomorrow (or late tonight) to allow tonight's Richmond v. Dayton game to unfold.

The reason being, tonight's game is absolutely enormous in shaping the destiny and "to-do list" for each of the teams in regards to earning a ticket to the Dance.

Richmond, on paper, seemed to be the slight favorite about a month before heading into conference play - narrowly edging out Temple, well ahead of Dayton and Xavier with Duquesne nowhere on the radar.  Just a short month later, it's the Spiders who find themselves in the tangled web of bubble-dwelling status, having balanced their wins over VCU, Seton Hall and Purdue with equally bad losses to Bucknell and Georgia Tech.

Dayton entered this season with similarly high hopes, fresh off last season's NIT Championship, and returning their electric scoring combo guard, Chris Wright.  However the Flyers, despite having the same record as RIchmond find themselves well on the outside of the bubble.  They lack a true quality win (Seton Hall, George Mason and New Mexico are their three best wins), and each time they have faced a top-level opponent they have gotten embarassed.  Their early season 68-34 drubbing by Cincinnati the most jarring.

A win tonight at home would solve two of Dayton's big problems; they'd earn a quality win and they'd remain in the A-10 regular season race.  The conference, as good as it is, will not be sending their fifth or sixth place teams to the tourney as at-large bid recipients.  Particularly if they are as devoid of a marquee win as are the Flyers.

Tonight's game is huge in the jostling for position that will take place the next six weeks.  Richmond, at 4-1, enters trailing only Xavier and Duquesne (5-0), with opportunities to play both at home without having to go on the road to return the favor.  As long as they remain close, you have to like the Spiders' odds.

Dayton on the other hand has already lost to Xavier, and still has a home & home with Duquesne remaining.  They will control their destiny somewhat, but falling to 3-3 and two full games behind the Spiders (plus losing the tie breaker) will likely be too much to overcome.

I honestly think both of these teams are NCAA-quality; certainly as much as any third place team from the ACC or Pac 10, however hostory shows us no more than three A-10 schools are dancing, no matter how rosy Lunardi's outlook appears in early February (he had SIX going last year...ooops).

I like Dayton at home tonight, earning a win that makes this conference one of the nation's most interesting in the final five weeks of the season - every bit as clogged at the top as the Big Ten and Big 12, only with a lot more on the line, because all five or six WON'T be getting to the Tourney.

Maniac's Pick:  Dayton -2

Dayton is going to need a big performance from the team, and their home crowd.

FiveTen-Win Teams: Real or Fraud?

One of the things that makes college hoops difficult to decipher for the casual fan is the relative meaninglessness of a team's overall record.  With over 340 Division I opponents and literally thousands of lower tier teams to possibly schedule, some gaudy records are built on solid foundations and others are sandcastles nervously waiting for the high tide of conference play.

With that in mind, let's take a look at ten teams with gaudy win totals and see how long they can stand up.


5.  Iowa State (11-2) -- I can't blame the Cyclones for scheduling they way they have.  In a Big Twelve league with seven teams substantially better than them, hoping for even .500 in league play is a reach.  The strategy then becomes: fatten up on a dozen or so near-nobodies, hope to eek out eight wins in conference and dangle nervously in front of the selection committee as a 20-win team from a power conference.

I don't think it is going to work out that way for the Cyclones, but you can't really fault them for trying.  The only two wins of any quality are three point wins over Creighton and Iowa.  Their two losses are not appalling; Northern Iowa and Cal, both competitive games.

It's hard to see Iowa State getting more than five or six wins in conference play, leaving even the NIT an optimistic destanation.

Verdict:  FRAUD

4.  Boston College (10-3) -- The Eagles are a tough squad to figure out.  They get beat at home by Yale.  Then they turn around and beat Texas A&M, Cal, Indiana, Providence and open conference play with a road win at Maryland.  Just when you are ready to grant the Eagles their mulligan for the Yale game, they lose to A-10 middle-of-the packer Rhode Island.

Boston College has the talent to be a top four or five team in the ACC, usually enough to earn a spot on the dance card though this year the ACC appears to be as poor as it has been in a long time.  I wouldn't bet my life on BC making it to the tourney, but despite several curious losses they have amassed the best resume in the conference outside of Duke.  .500 or better in the ACC should land the Eagles safely in the tournament.

Verdict:  REAL


3.  Belmont (9-3) -- The Bruins gained a small measure of national recognition after taking the Blue Devils to the final minute in their opening round tournament game three years ago.

Today, their close but not quite ability still seems in tact.  I wouldn't take Belmont straight up, but against a top tier opponent, I take them with the points.  They're gonna cover.

Two of their three losses this season are to Tennessee, each in games that were close until the final minute.  Their other loss is a respectable nine point defeat at Vanderbilt.  They don't have anything resembling a quality win on their resume and Atlantic Sun play won't afford them the opportunity to earn one.  They have little to no shot at an at-large bid, but are definetly a team to watch out for in a 2/15 or even a 3/14 opening rounder.

Verdict:  REAL

2.  Richmond (10-3) -- The Spiders at time look like not only a tourney team, but one that could play beyond the opening weekend.  Other times they look like NIT fodder at best.  Coach Chris Mooney in his sixth year at Richmond has not just won a few games, he has built a program that can compete in the A-10 year in and year out, as well as compete on a national scale as well.

The Spiders knew they needed to play a more challenging schedule in order to merit at-large worth, and they have done just that in 2010-2011.  The results have been a little mixed.  They snagged good resume wins over Seton Hall, VCU and a great win over Purdue.  They also have some lesser but still good wins over Arizona State, Wright State and Wake Forest.  The losses are a little bit scattered; no harm done in a seven point road loss at Old Dominion but the losses to Georgia tech and Iona sting a little bit.

It outs the committee in a tough spot if the Spiders fail to finish in the top three in league play.

Fortunately for Richmond they are going to get a few chances to add some quality resume wins once league play starts, though not as many as one would think at first glance due to the unbalanced A-10 schedule.  They'll get only one chance against Xavier, Temple and Dayton. the three most likely challengers.  The Temple and Dayton games are on the road, while Xavier and Rhode Island make the trip to Virginia.

As long as the Spiders can split the above four and avoid more than two or three "bad" losses, I see the Spiders making a return trip to the tourney.

Verdict:  REAL

1.  Cincinnati (13-0) -- Hard to believe, but the Bearcats haven;t made the tournament since Bob Huggins was dismissed five seasons ago.  Andy Kennedy had them close in his lone season at the helm, and Mick Cronin has yet to even have the Bearcats close enough to feel any drama heading into Selection Sunday.

This year they have raced out to a perfect 13-0 season, though their schedule to this point has not just been sub par, it's been downright embarrassing.  Their lone impressive win was a 68-34 demolition of Dayton (that's a really good win).  Aside from that?  Oklahoma (possibly one of the five worst Power 6 conference teams), Wright State and Miami (OH) and they haven't even squared off against a team in shouting range of the Top 100.

Life in the Big East won't be so easy.  The Bearcats have all the hallmarks of a perplexing selection day struggle.  8-10 in Big East play would get them to 21 wins.  That makes this year's Crosstown Shootout with rival Xavier even more anticipated.

The question is, can the Bearcats notch eight, nine or even ten wins inside the top heavy Big East?  Try this on for size, they could get six simply by beating DePaul twice, Rutgers, South Florida and Seton Hall all at home and by winning at Providence.  That leaves them twelve opportunities to pick up two or three quality wins, including a home and home with St. John's.

The biggest misconception about the Big East is that it is a "deep" league.  Yes, they have a ton of elite teams every year, but there are a whopping SIXTEEN teams in the league.  The dregs of the BEast are every bit as bad as any other major conference, only with the huge number of teams everyone gets a few extra have-nots to fatten up on.

My gut feel - the Bearcats get into the tourney over perhaps a more deserving team like a Wichita State or a UAB.

Verdict:  FRAUD

Tune in tomorrow as we explore five more teams, including a few big names out West!
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A-Plus Night for the A-10

Tonight was a big night for bolstering the national profile of the Atlantic 10.  Last season they flirted with sending as many as six teams to the Dance, before eventually settling for three, with three more in the NIT.  This season looked to be a down year, with Temple, Xavier and Richmond all taking a disappointing early loss or two.

The Atlantic 10 collectively came up big tonight.  First, Dayton took down CAA standout George Mason 73-67.  After some early struggles Dayton is looking more and more like an NCAA Tournament team.

Richmond pummeled Wake Forest on the road 90-74.  Wake is undeniably down this year, and will likely finsh with a sub .500 record, however aany blowout road win against an ACC school is good for the overall profile.

Lastly, and perhaps most impressivly, Rhode Island knocked off Boston College 67-65.  The Eagles got some pub for their early season loss to lowly Yale.  Since that upset they had regrouped and and won seven straight, including wins over Cal, Indiana, UMass, Providence and Maryland.  This is a great win for the Rams who played Pitt tough in the season opener, and had looked uneven since.

The win moves the Rams to 9-4 and puts another team in the at-large conversation for the league.  Likely no more than three will dance, but with Temple, Xavier, Dayton, Richmond and Rhode Island the A-10 is again relevant on the national stage.

Games to Watch - Saturday December 11th

For those of you who have the college football "in-between blues," that odd period where teams dangle in limbo for two to five weeks waiting for their bowl games...all of which mean absolutely NOTHING save for one, saddle up for a fantastic day of college hoops that will bring it from noon until well after midnight.


Here's a quick overview of a few games worth catching or at least DVR'ing.

12:00 PM:  UNLV @ Louisville - Both teams are off to flying starts, undefeated and already possessing a few quality wins.  Tomorrow is a great opportunity to find out if Louisville's fast start is an indication they can compete in the loaded Big East and also an opportunity for the left half of the country to get a chance to see a very good UNLV team play.  UNLV has had the Cards number, beating them in each of the past two seasons (Louisville teams that were better, at least on paper, than this year's squad.)

This might actually be the best game of the day, a great way to kick of some hoops watching before lunchtime.  For the UNLV kids, it will be like playing a game at 9AM with the time change.  That's tough to do, and I think they'll come out a little flat and jet lagged.  Give me the Cards laying 3.5

2:30 PM:  Wisconsin @ Marquette - This game has quietly become one of the better rivalry games in the country over the past few seasons.  Both teams have a strong similarity in that it seems every season they are picked somewhere near the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, and sure enough, every year they exceed expectations and head to the Tournament. 

This year looks to be playing out exactly the same way.  Both teams enter at 7-2, with their losses coming against ranked foes and in close games.  Both have a few quality wins under their belt but can desperatly use another one before tackling conference play in the two toughest conferences in the nation.

Marquette will have the valuable home crowd advantage but I have a feeling Wisconsin has a touch more discipline and a little more cohesion and poise at this early juncture in the season.  Gimme the Badgers +1.

3:15 PM:  Tennessee @ Pitt - The Vols have been one of the season's pleasant surprises.  Tomorrow will be one of Pearl's last games on the sidelines before his oddly-arranged SEC-only eight game suspension takes effect.  Both teams are athletic and very physically tough.  I like Pitt at home in a really good ball game but nine points is a lot to lay considering this will likely be a game in the fifties or sixties.  I'll take the Vols and the +9.

4:00 PM:  Kansas State @ Loyola (IL) -  Odd line of the day.  not sure how K-State is laying only 8.5.  Gimme the Wildcats in a 20+ point romp.

4:00 PM:  Dayton @ Old Dominion -  The Flyers are reeling, despite their 7-2 record.  However, this is a talented and experienced club that should turn the corner soon.  Old Dominion continues their aggressive schedule with yet another hopeful tourney team.  I think the Monarchs win at home, but I'll take the Flyers +10.5

4:30 PM:  Washington @ Texas A&M - Texas A&M can land a clear blow for the Big 12 versus the Pac 10 with a win today at home.  Texas A&M is off to a good start at 8-1, however their only win of note came over Temple.  Washington has been carrying the banner as the only ranked team in the Pac 10, but it's hard to put A&M any better than sixth in the loaded Big 12.  I'm not sure if Washington feels any pressure to prop up their sagging conference, but a loss today is actually pretty damaging to league's overall profile.  I'll take Washington on the road, minus one and a half.

5:15 PM:  Indiana @ Kentucky - One of my favorite rivalries takes place today, and though much of the shine has faded over the past decade with neither school managing to be good at coinciding times, it still means a ton to their respective fan bases.  Indiana is in year three of the Tom Crean Era, and call me a hater, but it doesn't seem any real progress has been made.  Meanwhile in the Bluegrass it took Calipari all of half a day to bring the 'Cats from "NIT" to "Final Four" caliber. 

There's still a pretty big hill to climb in Bloomington, and I don't think today will be a step in that direction.  Give me Big Blue laying the thirteen points.

6:00 PM:  Arizona @ BYU - Sean Miller's Cats seem to be on the right track to erasing the memory of last year's rare tourney absence.  It had been nearly thirty years since the Cats were left out, and I'm sure Miller would like to put another thirty years distance in the rear view mirror.  A win today in Provo would go a long way.  I think they'll get it.  Gimme Arizona +2.5

7:00 PM:  Virginia Commonwealth @ Richmond - The sneaky gem in today's bursting schedule is this top-tier matchup between the CAA and the A-10.  Both schools have designs on playing in March, however neither league is notorious for collecting armloads of at-large bids.  Both schools could really use the chip today's win would provide. 

VCU's two losses are quality; Tennessee and to lesser extent, South Florida.  They also boast quality wins over UCLA and Wake Forest.  Richmond's losses are a little less solid; Old Dominion and Iona, however their wins are better; particularly the win over Purdue.

This should be a really good game, likely close, so I'll take VCU +8

8:30 PM:  Gonzaga @ Notre Dame -  The Zags are really struggling, and at 4-4 can ill-afford many more losses if they plan to continue their decade-long NCAA Tournament streak.  Notre Dame was one of the season's early surprises until Kentucky took some of their shine Wednesday night.  The line on this one is huge at 10.5, a number I think reflects a lack of confidence in Gonzaga rather than a ton of faith in the Irish.  I'm not so sure that either is warranted.  Give me Gonzaga and the points, and don't be surprised if they clip them straight up.

Maniac's Picks: Louisville -3.5, Wisconsin +1, Tennessee +9, Kansas State -8.5, Dayton +10.5, Washington -1.5, Kentucky -13, Arizona +2.5, VCU +8, Gonzaga -10.5

Atlantic 10 Misses 2009... Badly

Ten months ago reasonable people were speculating the Atlantic-10 would receive as many as six bids to the NCAA Tournament.  With seven teams playing in the postseason (3 NCAA, 3 NIT, 1 NCIT) 2009-2010 was widely considered a fantastic one for the conference.

This year?  Yikes...

Conference standard bearer Xavier is seriously in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time in five years, and only the second in the past eight seasons.  Tonight's loss to Miami-Ohio was only the Muskies second (Old Dominion), but needing overtime, at home, to beat both Wofford and IPFW portend some tough days ahead.

Their saving grace might be that the rest of the league stinks as well.  Charlotte fell to 3-5 after losing to East Carolina.  Dayton lost at home to East Tennessee State.  This weekend they got doubled up 68-34 by a less-than-stellar Cincinnati team.  Richmond, the conference's lone bright spot lost tonight to fellow mid-major darling Old Dominion (they'd be in first in the A-10 if you're scoring at home...).

George Washington got trounced by George Mason.  St Joe's dropped by Drexel.  UMass squeaked a 2-point win over Quinnipeac College, Rhode Island lost to Illinois-Chicago.  While the A-10 was hoping to fatten up on some preconference wins, they have instead turned into the buffet.

It's been a rocky start, both for Xavier and the A-10

There is still time to right the ship, but as of today, I only have Richmond and Temple in, with Xavier hovering and no one else in clear sight.  Unless some clear top-heaviness emerges inside conference play, it is looking less and less likely the A-10 can repeat the magic of last season.

If the RPI Doesn't Lie...

then here is an interesting perspective on a few teams and their respective tourney prospects and seeding.

Regardless of your opinion on the the RPI rankings, it is part of the formula and logic employed by the committee come Selection Sunday.  While many factors of the RPI are beyond a team's control; for example Cornell has fallen from 25th to 49th over the past two weeks due to their weakening schedule strength as they wade through Ivy League play.  Nevermind the fact they are treating their league foes like the UConn Women, the RPI still drops.  However, many factors are controlable, a reality not lost among saavy mid-major schedulers.

Of course it helps if your league goes out and picks up some marquee wins in the pre-conference season.  The A-10 currently has six teams in the RPI's Top 50, four of them in the Top 30.  Wins over teams like Villanova, Cincinnati, Florida, Louisville, Old Dominion, VCU, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Mississippi State do wonders to raise the league's overall profile.  Then, once the in-league attrition begins, as long as your top teams lose only to each other, very little damage is done.

Compare this conversely with what has occurred in the Pac-10.  Their pre-conference struggles were well publicized.  It is reflected in the RPI.  Cal is the first to appear at 26th.  Washington is next at 55th, behind teams like William & Mary, Northeastern and San Diego State.  Is there any wonder the A-10 is talking six bids while out west they are hoping someone other than Cal wins the tourney so they might get two?

Here's a few RPI's worth noting as we enter the final month stretch run:

RPI's that Help:

Northern Iowa (13th):  Most people have the Panthers projected between a 7-9 seed.  Their RPI seems to suggest otherwise.  The precedent is there too; several years ago the committee awarded a two-loss Drake team a #5, despite playing a lesser schedule than No. Iowa this season.

New Mexico (10th): Think Steve Alford's Lobos have a BIG game with UNLV this week?  If New Mex was to win out (unlikely) you could be looking at an unprecedentedly high seed for the Mountain West; as high as a #2.  Realistically the Lobos will lose a game or two, but can still expect to fall in the top four seed lines in March.


Rhode Island (13th):  I think this one is a little bit of fool's gold, buoyed slightly by their scant loss total (just three) and the strength of the A-10. They have a gang of "OK" wins, but lack the Top 25 headliner needed to crack to Top 4 seed lines. They host Richmond tomorrow night, and still have a trip to Temple to make.  Their best wins are Boston College, Northeastern, Oklahoma State and Dayton.  It is unlikely to expect the Rams any higher than a seven or eight unless they win out.

Richmond (30th):  Staying in the A-10, many pundits have Richmond on the bubble.  I say look at their quality wins and RPI.  This team is a lock barring a late collapse.  They have wins over Florida, Temple, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State.  Their losses are ALL road losses: Wake Forest, William & Mary, VCU, South Carolina and two in conference.  Their closing schedule is tough; they still have trips to URI, Xavier and Charlotte, but the Spiders are in position where they can lose two of three and still get in the Dance.

Texas Tech (32nd):  This is an interesting one, as no one has the Red Raiders even on the bubble.  Most have them eight or ninth in a six-bid max Big 12.  So how are they so high?  It would be a nearly unprecedented anomaly for a team from a power conference with an RPI of 32 to NOT recieve a bid, but Tech is a good illustration of the most significant flaw of the RPI system.   They have a good record against the RPI Top 50-100 (3-0) and even better against RPI 100-200 (7-0).  The problem?  They are 1-7 against the Top 50, with nary a quality win outside of UTEP, Washington and Oklahoma State.  Oddly enough, if Washington can get rolling and UTEP stays hot, it will be hard to exclude Tech IF (and a huge IF here, they are currently 3-5) they can get to .500 in Big 12 play.

Siena (31st):  The Saints are 14-0 in MEAC play.  With an RPI at 31, many a team on the bubble will be rooting for them in the MEAC Tourney.  They are dancing either way.  If they fall in the MEAC, they are taking one of the big boys off the bubble with them.


Wichita State (37th):  The Shockers strong RPI make it possible for the Valley to sneak two teams into the Dance, but they better not leave too much to chance by leaving any more wins on the table.  It really depends on how many bubble busters occur in conference tournaments, provided the Shockers can't capture their own.

RPI's that Hurt:

Virginia (94th):  The Cavs better win 11 in ACC play (possible, they are 5-3) otherwise the early losses and brutal RPI keep them on the sidelines come tourney time.  None of this diminishes the job Tony Bennett is doing in Charlottesville though.

Mississippi St (70th):  The SEC in general isn't getting a lot of help from the RPI.  It isn't as bad as last year, but the message remains the same - if you want six or seven bids you are going to have to beat people outside of your conference.  I'm not sure Mississippi State can rebound enough to make the tourney, with the SEC West so devoid of opportunities for quality wins.  They better knock of Kentucky when the Cats come to Starkville.

Notre Dame (61st):  Remember the column about the pathetic scheduling efforts of the Irish this year?  THIS is when it comes back to bite you in the ass.  With no quality wins to seperate themselves, they are forced to not just stay even with Cincinnati, UConn and Marquette; they have to finish clearly ahead of them.  That might be asking a bit too much this season.


Tulsa (62nd):  An RPI of 62 pretty much sinks your at-large chances, particularly when two teams from your mid-major league (UAB, UTEP) are making strong claims for bids.  The Golden Hurricane get a chance to make their RPI moot with a trip to Cameron Indoor later this month.

RPI's that Really Don't Matter:

Ohio State (37th):  The RPI could care less about Evan Turner's back... but the Committee will.  Finish with 11 or 12 wins in the Big Ten and the Bucks will earn a Top 4 seed.

Illinois (72nd):  RPI can't measure what a win in the Kohl Center is worth.  The committee can.  At 9-3 in Big Ten play, barring a collapse the Illini are going to the Dance.  Add in wins over Clemson and Vandy, and factor in that all four non-conference losses were to Top 100 teams and by three or less points.  Throw the RPI completely out the window for Illinois, they are dancing.

Big Night in the A-10

Tonight is a huge night of hoops for the nation's sixth best conference.  No, we're not talking about the Pac-10, or even the Mountain West, but none other than the Atlantic-10.  Depending on whom you believe, if the season ended today the A-10 would have four or even five teams in the Field of 65.  Tonight's games gives us a good glimpse at some of the best, and also some of the middle of the pack slugging it out for position.

The marquee matchup takes place in Phily, where the 4-0 Xavier Musketeers visit the similarly unbeaten Temple Owls.  Both teams seem likely tourney teams though Temple is much more of a lock than X at this point.  Xavier has taken some losses, but none of them "bad" losses; double-OT at Wake Forest, at Kansas State (who just beat Texas), Baylor and Marquette on a neutral floor, Butler on the road on a controversial ending.  Their overall profile, RPI (16th) and momentum (and pedigree, though it isn't supposed to matter) scream tourney team.

Tonight's game is huge for Temple, who can take control of the conference and legitimately start thinking Top 4 seed with a win tonight.  The game is equally big for the Muskies, who have had a lot of close calls, but aside from the double-OT win over Cincinnati, lack a real marquee win.  A quality road win against a ranked opponent does wonders for the RPI and national profile, as does taking control of the league.

Temple will look to wrestle control of the A-10 tonight hosting Xavier

Dayton also looks like as solid tourney team to me, but faces a tricky visit from GW tonight.  The Flyers should win and keep pace in the A-10, but a game like tonight, against the 7th or 8th best team in the league, shows how good and deep the A-10 is in 2010.

It is a similar situation for Rhode Island when they host dissapointing Duquesne tonight.  The Dukes were just a few minutes away from earning the league's NCAA bid last year, before falling to Temple in the closing minutes.  With a lot of key cogs back, expectations were high in Pittsburgh.  Suffice it to say they haven't been met.  Since gagging up a win in double-OT against Pitt, the Dukes have gone 4-6, 0-3 in conference.  Still, they have some talent and are much more of a threat than most league's cellar dwellers.  It will be interesting to see how routinely the Rams handle their business.

Xavier v. Temple is the best game.   The most intriguing game is Charlotte at Richmond.  If a fifth team does sneak in from the A-10, it is likely one of these two.  Richmond has the conference's best out of league glamour win collection, with wins over Florida, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State.  However they have already lost to St. Louis in conference and had tougher-than-expected tussles with UMass and Lasalle.

Charlotte opened some eyes with the beatdown they laid on Louisville in Freedom Hall, but

also boasts a 42-point loss to Duke to go with 33'er to Old Dominion and a 18-spot to Tennessee.  If the committee looks at margin, this screams of a team that might embarass you if you select them.  However, a win tonight brings them to 4-1 in the A-10, and probably slots them slightly ahead of the Spiders on the Big Board pecking order.

A great night of hoops for fans of the Atlanic-10 - enjoy!

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Wednesday's Highlights

There were a couple interesting games last night, and a few resume building wins. Here's a quick sweep on a few you might have missed.

NIGHT IN REVIEW:

UAB validated it's 8-1 record with an exclamation point win over former C-USA rival Cincinnati. The Maniac took a pretty big swipe across C-USA's bow earlier this week, but readily tips his cap to the Blazers' Wednesday night effort. The 64-47 win places them solidly in at-large consideration with a second place conference finish. It is an especialy big win when considering their other "big" wins were Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Georgia. With only chances against Butler (quality), Virgina and Arkansas (not so much...) remaining before conference play this win will be enormous when the Blazers are thrown up on the big board.

For the Bearcats, it is a disappointing response following a tough double-OT loss to crosstown rival Xavier on Sunday night. For Bearcat fans, there has to be some trepidation following another tourney miss-season that began very similarly to this one. I think the Bearcats are still an NCAA Tourney team, especially as Stevenson blossoms, but things need to get on track quickly. There final two non-conference games are minor tuneups, but the BEast begins soon and appears to be nearly as tough as last year.

Louisville stopped their steep slide with a hammering win over Oral Roberts. Granted, they weren't exactly tacking UNLV 1990, but the 94-57 win is a good sign Pitino's Cards realize they can't look past anyone this season any longer...

Ole Miss continued their daring ways, erasing a ten point deficit in the final five minutes to force OT and earn a 91-81 win over UTEP. The Maniac was also critical of UTEP's early light schedule, but admits to being impressed with them in defeat. Derrick Caracter will add an inside presence that few in C-USA will be able to match.

Don't look now, but the Kevin Coble-less Northwestern Wildcats are putting themselves in fine position to earn the school's first ever NCAA Tourney invite. They are 9-1, with wins over Notre Dame, Iowa State, and NC State. Their lone loss is against a top 15 Butler team that will likely be a top-4 seed come March. If they win their final two non-conference games (Saturday's Stanford game is a tricky one) they can go 8-10 in the loaded Big Ten and get some consideration. 9-9 would make them a near lock.

How about the hammering South Carolina laid on Richmond last night? The Spiders had looked good early this season and felt like a potential sleeper in the A-10. South Carolina, led by Devin Downey in what feels like his twenty second year of eligibilty, are going to have a great opportunity to contend for an at-large bid in the loaded SEC East. The good thing about sharing the East with Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, and Vandy is that all five will get eight opportunities for quality wins.

For Richmond, all is not lost. They still have quality wins over Mississippi State, Old Dominion and Missouri in their hip pocket and their three losses to William & Mary, VCU and the Gamecocks should all be Top 100, if not Top 50 RPI losses in March. It does however make this weekends trip to Gainesville an interesting litmus test of the Spiders' legitimacy.

Finally Oklahoma State rebounded from their humbling loss to Tulsa with a nice 71-70 win over Stanford. The Cardinal have now lost to Kentucky in OT, and Oklahoma State by 1. So someone explain to be the 83-81 loss to Oral Roberts? Regardless, on their good days the Cardinal appear to be strong enough to challenge for third in the Pac 10. And, yes, that is meant more as an insult to the beleaguered Pac-10.

Not too much going on in college hoops tonight. Enjoy the Colts going for 14-0, and a serious, somber RIP to Chris Henry.

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Wednesday's Hidden Gems - There are a TON

Tonight is the culmination of the Big Ten - ACC Challenge, with the conferences knotted at three apiece. However, there is a bevy of quality and intriguing hoops going on in places lesser covered. The Maniac is here to provide a guide to some games worth catching, and some early fine tuning of the Cinderella slipper-worthiness (worthiness is a word, per Seinfeld's "sponge worthiness" episode) across the nation's landscape.

Pitt (-5.5) @ Duquesne: The Maniac liked Duquesne as a sleeper tourney pick out of the improved, balanced Atlantic Ten. Then they went out and lost to Western Carolina, after struggling to a three point win over Arkansas-Monticello. Yep, the famed power Arkansas-Monticello. Not an impressive start. But keep in mind they just got 6'3'' scoring guard Melquan Boldin back this week, giving the four of the five leading scorers from 2008-09 back on the floor.

Meanwhile Pitt has looked impressive, starting 5-1 and playing Texas tough for 32 minutes before capitulating late. The names on the front of the jerseys and the early season results would seem to tilt the scales pretty heavily in Pitt's favor. I still like the Dukes tonight, as the game means just a little bit more for them.

Here's a nice article on the history of the series. Plus, Papa Maniac will appreciate the reflection on the Duquesne glory days...

Siena @ Georgia Tech (-6): Georgia Tech is the only ACC squad not playing in the Challenge this week, but will still get a challenge from the Siena Saints. Siena burst into national consciousness with the Double OT upset of Ohio State in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament last year. They even opened this season ranked in several polls. However they have already lost to both Temple and St. John's; both bubble teams at best.

This looks like a classic case of the long underrated proving to be, um, more "appropriately" rated. Georgia Tech however is a budding beast. Long gone is the 11-18 season of 2008-2009. These Jackets have no intention of sitting out this postseason.

Give me the Jackets to win and cover.

Old Dominion @ Richmond (-3): Another great matchup of small school potential darlings come March. Old Dominion entered the season as the favorite in the undervalued CAA. Richmond is one of the sleepers (behind Xavier and Dayton) to shake up the A-10.

Richmond is 6-1 with wins over Missouri and Mississippi State, and their lone loss to William & Mary (not a bad loss - seriously - click here), Old Dominion has been a little less sharp losing the the same two school Richmond padded their resume against.

However the head-to-head matchup is the true test. If we were playing the who-beat-who game, LeMoyne is better than North Carolina.

That said, I like Richmond in a really intriguing ballgame.

Western Kentucky @ South Carolina (-5.5): South Carolina and Devan Downey entered the season hoping to challenge Kentucky and Tennessee in the SEC East; and expecting to dance in March. They got their doors blown off by Miami and showed the hangover effect, giving up 93 points to Jacksonville in a game they were lucky to win 97-93.

Their next three games will really set the table for how much work they will have to get done in the insanely deep and balanced SEC (no, they are not the best conference, but have less drop off from 3 to 11 than any other league). After this they host Clemson and travel to Richmond. First things first, knock off a twice-defending Sweet 16 participant in the Hilltoppers.

The Hilltoppers have been really disappointing thus far; losing to LSU and Indiana State, and winning by only 4 and 1 vs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee and CS Northridge. Yuck.

South Carolina needs to bring some focus tonight. I think they will, and will win convincingly.

Rhode Island @ VCU (-4): Eric Maynor is gone, but VCU and first-year coach Shaka Smart have no intention of sitting out this year's Big Dance. They have already burried the memory of the loss to Western Michigan with big wins over Oklahoma and Nevada.

Rhode Island was one of the last teams on the outside of the bubble last year. Their early 4-0 start contains little to help remedy that in 2010. Tonight is huge for the Rams. They still have shots against Oklahoma St, Boston College and Providence. They can't afford many losses unless they want to be forced to win the A-10 to dance.

A really good game that most people will miss; give me RI in a close win.

Arkansas @ Oklahoma (-12): Hard to believe how much worse this game is than it sounds like it should be. Oklahoma has struggled mightily learning how to cope with the loss of the Griffin boys. Arkansas is scouring the campus for enough warm bodies to dress. What is this, Hickory High School??

Cover your eyes, and expect Oklahoma to take out a little frustration on the hapless Hogs.

The Maniac takes Willie Warren and the Sooners in a romp.

Oklahoma State (-2.5) @ Tulsa: This is one of the best games of the early season. An no one will get to see it. Except for the kids parents. And Tulsans. (Is that right? Tulsasians? Tulsainians? Can anyone help with this?)

Oklahoma State is has six easy cruising wins. However only the latest against Utah (who boasts losses to ) is evenly remotely relevant. After this, their only "games" before Big 12 play are against Pacific, Stanford and Rhode Island. All decent teams, but the Cowboys have a lot more opportunity for "bad losses" then they do "good wins." They need tonight more than it seems from a distance.

Their is no doubt of the importance of this game for Tulsa. Conference USA has become a one-bid league, more inline with the WCC and MVC than the Big Six. Many experts tabbed Tulsa as the pre-season fave (not us, it is still Memphis by a lot). They enter tonight 5-1, fresh off a loss to Missouri State. Tonight is a must win if they want to entertain notions of an at-large bid. After tonight, their two best remaining non-conference games are Colorado and Nebraska.

A won't put an official pick on this one; it really is a coin-flip to me. That said, I think the MO St. loss is a clear result of looking ahead to tonight and that Tulsa will give them one heck of a battle defending their home court.

These games all tip between 7-8pm EST. It is a fantastic early night for college hoops and one that will be reference back all season long as we begin to sort out RPI's and Power Rankings.

MANIAC'S PICKS (RECAP):
Duquesne +5.5
Georgia Tech -6
Richmond -3
South Carolina -5.5
Rhode Island +4
Oklahoma -12

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Maniac Picks - Nov 18th

A New feature to March Maniacs - our fearless spread-friendly picks for some of the most intriguing games in the country. Of course we would NEVER endorse gambling - our picks are merely utilizing the spread to...um... make things more challenging! Yeah - that's it!

MANIAC PICKS!

Richmond @ Syracuse -15.5: The 'Cuse exorcise the demons of their historic tourney loss 17 years ago. Only in a lot less exciting fashion. Donte' Green has taken his first step towards D-League greatness, but the Orange have plenty in the fold. Johnny Flynn is NBA-good and Devendorf keeps defenses honest from long range. Plus that match-up zone is nightmares for non-conference opponents (perhaps because Boeheim hasn't scheduled a legit one in 20 years...)

PICK: Syracuse -15.5


Kentucky @ UNC -16.5: UNC begins their quest to capture the title many felt they should have grabbed last season. Hansbrough will sit, but the Heels have plenty of talent to make up for the POY's absence. Indiana's Luke Zeller shined in Hansbrough's absence in game one. (I guess Kelvin Sampson ran out of texts... how did this kid get away?) Kentucky looked abysmal losing to VMI, but the Cats will regroup. Patterson will enjoy the lack of Psycho-T inside and will score often. Can the Cat's guard handle the ball well enough to withstand Carolina's pressure? My guess is not enough to win, but just well enough to cover.

PICK: BIG BLEW +16.5



Davidson @ Oklahoma-4: I love college hoops. I really do. You get games like this once or twice in the first few months of football season. In hoops, you get them all November long. Davidson looks to build on the most spectacular tourney run since George Mason (more interesting because of the emergence of Steph Curry) by notching a big scalp in Oklahoma.

Take a look at the Wildcats early schedule this year: Oklahoma, Winthrop (always tough), West Virginia, NC St., Purdue (best team in Big 10 - write it down), and DUKE. Gotta love the aggressive scheduling and you can bet it will pay dividends come March.

But not tonight. Davidson has no answer for the strength, size and quickness of Blake Griffin, a Top-3 pick in next year's draft. Curry may go for 30, but I'd be surprised if Griffin doesn't nearly match him. And Blake has a little more help around him. Davidson is a good ballclub, and Steph Curry is absolutely dynamic. His 4-game tourney run last March was honestly transcendent. Everyone is a Steph Curry fan now...including Vegas. 4 points is not enough, Oklahoma is just a better team overall. (But I'm rooting for Davidson - like everyone else...)

PICK: Oklahoma-4