The Maniac's First Bracket - Jan 26th

Rather than Bracketeering this week, settle in for the first glimpse at The Maniac's Bracket.

The Maniac had a fun day today after having an MRI on his brain, which, ironically many of you have long suggested necessary.  While all is well, and my health is super-duper OK, the picks of late might have been a red flag for concern (and a thorough brain X-Ray..)  However, this bracket is a good first attempt to sort out the Madness impending.

A couple of notes: first, it is a projection.  For example, I realize Northwestern would NOT be in today.  I also realize that not every small conference winner is currently in first place in their conference.  In the Summit, I like IUPUI over Oakland and in the Southern I tabbed Charleston over Western Carolina.  Those subtle tweaks have little to do with the overall bracket and seeding.

The biggest difference between us and Bracketology is the predictive element of the bracket.  I looked at current records, but also opportunities for RPI's to rise and fall, likely losses looming ahead, and teams poised to rattle off a few W's in a row, and then slotted teams accordingly.  It is easy to see a strong finish for Northwestern coming, due to the uneven nature of the schedule; hence a #10 in my first projection.  (Though something tells me NW fans aren't that concerned about seeding....)

As always, it is sure to spark debate, but that is what makes College Hoops so fantastic.

Enjoy!  And feel free to write with gripes and comments.

LEFT SIDE

1	Syracuse		Michigan St
16	Rob Mor/TX So.		Maine
8	New Mexico		Xavier
9	Oklahoma St		Cincinnati
4	Temple		Tennessee
13	Cornell		Murray St.
5	Clemson		Kansas State
12	St. Mary's		Siena
6	BYU		UAB
11	Florida		Wichita St.
3	Gonzaga		Purdue
14	No. Colorado		Lafayette
7	Butler		Cal
10	Old Dominion		UNLV
15	Morgan State		Denver
2	Texas		Villanova

RIGHT SIDE:

Kansas		Kentucky
Texas A&M CC		Campbell
Maryland		Northern Iowa
Baylor		Memphis
Vanderbilt		Ohio State
Coastal Carolina		Louisiana Tech
Wisconsin		Pitt
Rhode Island		Charlotte
Mississippi St		Ole Miss
Wake Forest		Missouri
Georgetown		Georgia Tech
Charleston		IUPUI
Uconn		North Carolina
Florida State		Northwestern
Akron		Pacific
Duke		West Virginia

COMMENTS ON JAN 26th BRACKET:

Big Leaps & Top Dogs:  

Vanderbilt is much higher than they would be if the season ended today.  However, I have a feeling they split with Kentucky and end up second in the SEC East.  Their current record is 16-3 and they have already won all three of their road games in the SEC, including at rival Tennessee.  They are in excellent shape to finish on the 3 or 4 line.

Georgia Tech:  I know, they are not even close to a three seed...yet.  I like Tech as the #2 team in a good and balanced ACC.  Right now they might be hard to separate from Maryland, Wake and Clemson but give it a few more weeks and I think the Rambling Wreck will float toward the top of the league.

Michigan State is quietly amassing one of the best tourney resumes in the nation.  They make the turn in the Big Ten undefeated, and seem likely to win the league, with three game leads over Wisconsin, Purdue and Ohio State.  Their out-of-conference losses are all quality, and their RPI will continue to climb as Big Ten play provides very few gimmes.  They seem as well positioned from a remaining-schedule standpoint as any team aiming for a #1 seed.

Syracuse is my #1 overall team.  I've had them #1 for a week now, and see no reason to drop them off the top line, even if they sustain a few conference losses.  Their head-to-head with Villanova might prove a decisive contest, however.

I gave Kansas and Kentucky the nod for the final two slots, though I expect both to lose at least two more games.  Texas could vault over Kansas by winning their matchup in two weeks, and winning the Big 12 Tourney.  Kentucky's path seems clear in conference, but if they slip more than two or three times, expect a second BEast or Big 12 team to capture the fourth #1 seed.

UAB as a #6, Temple as a #4 and Georgetown at a #3 are all high for now, as might be Purdue (#3).  Those slots represent season projection finish rather than current status. 

Surprises?

North Carolina is going to make the tournament.  They are.  If they go 7-4 down the stretch (very possible) and win a game in the ACC Tourney they would finish at 21-12.  They'd own non-conference wins over Michigan State and Ohio State, and their losses would be to Texas, Syracuse and Kentucky.  It is easy to kick Roy and the Heels while they are down, but despite some stumbles they are likely a tourney team, and a 6 to 10 seed to boot.  I have them as a #7, based on the above record projection.  They are still three or four bad losses away from talking NIT...

UAB, Butler, and BYU:  Expect three teams with the top records in the country to still find themselves outside the Top 4 seed line.  BYU blew a golden opportunity to vault into the upper echelon losing at New Mexico this week.  The Mountain West is solid, but not solid enough to earn a top 4 seed without a near-flawless record.  Butler will not face another team inside the RPI Top 100 the rest of the season.  While that gets them to the Dance comfortably, it is hard to see them moving up a seed line, even if teams above them falter a little bit.  UAB is the most interesting case.  The have a few quality wins (Tulsa, Butler, Cincinnati), and are amassing a gaudy record in the solid C-USA.  However, if the committee looks at the strength of their play in many of the wins over poor opponents, their seed will tumble...Fortunatly for the Blazers, the RPI is rarely that sophisticated.

Memphis:  The Tigers have completely vanished from the collective basketball world's conscious, and I have yet to see a mock bracket that included the Tigers.  Consider this: the Tigers have home-and-homes with Tulsa and UAB remaining.  They also host Gonzaga next week (HUGE opportunity to claim a bid).  If they go just 3-2 in those games (and I think they will) and win the other very winnable games remaining (also think they will) they will be sitting at 24-7, with three of their losses coming to Kansas, Syracuse and Tennessee (and also some combination of the three teams mentioned prior).  Other than a 1-pointer to UMass you can't find a bad loss.  That smells like a tourney team to me.

Wichita State:  My fondness for mid-majors might be showing, but I really think the Shockers will get an at-large spot if they need it (should Northern Iowa win the MVC Tourney).  The catch?  If someone other than N. Iowa wins the tourney.  I can't see the committee taking three from the Valley.

Florida:  Talk about living dangerous, if Chandler Parsons' two buzzer beaters do not fall, the Gators are sitting 13-7, (3-3) and NIT-bound.  Instead, they are 15-5 and in prime position to return to the Dance for the first time since cutting down the nets in 2007.

Omissions?

Louisville:  Some may give the Cards the nod over Cincy, particularly after last weekend's win.  However, when it is all said and done the Cards pre-conference struggles will do them in.  In the middle of the muddled BEast I like UConn and Cincinnati to emerge as te conferences' sixth and seventh bids.

Tulsa:  I like the Golden Hurricane, but the further you dig into their resume you find it incredibly barren.  The gut-wrenching loss the other night to UAB might be a death sentence unless they can sweep Memphis.

Texas A&M:  Many might have them slotted ahead of Baylor and Missouri.  I just don't see it.  I also fanned on OK State in the preseason.  They appear to be the 3rd or 4th best team in the Big 12.  Back to A&M, they do have wins over Clemson and Minnesota from the preseaosn to buoy them up if they are close, I see them as one of the first few teams out, but again, could snatch the spot from Baylor or Mizzou.

Dayton:  Everyone has had the Flyers comfortably in all year, but it is time to recognize they just do not have the profile of a tourney team and cannot afford any more "bad losses" in conference play.  They have slid weel behind Temple and Xavier,which is OK.  What is not OK is slipping behind Rhode Island, Charlotte and Richmond, which they have.

Virginia & Virginia Tech:  The first?  Nice story, but no bid.  The second?  Same ole' story, and sorry Seth, no bid.

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