Big Ten: Mid Season Conference Round Up

The Big Ten entered the season thought to be one of the nation's elite conferences, and they've done little to dispel the notion thus far.  If anything, the recent stellar play of Penn State and the at least occasional displays of competence by Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern, make the Big Ten as deep top-to-bottom as any league in the country.

At the midpoint, it is safe to assume an absolute minimum of five NCAA Tourney bids, with a sixth being highly likely and a seventh being a remote, but unlikely possibility.

Here's where we stand so far:

LOCKS: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin
SHOULD BE IN:  Minnesota
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY: Northwestern, Penn State
NO SHOT:  Michigan. Indiana, Iowa

Ohio State is #1 in the country and shows no signs of slowing down.  Tonight's visit from Purdue will be a nice test for the Buckeyes coming off their emotional win Saturday in Champagne.  They have the inside/outside balance needed for a deep run to the Final Four and more.  They won't run the table, and could even lose tonight to Purdue, but I'd be surprised if they drop more than three or four games all year.  Expect the Buckeyes to be a #1 seed in March.

Purdue is an interesting case.  People have focused so much on who they are missing (Robbie Hummel) they've overlooked two All-American candidates they do have in E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson.  The senior inside/out combo is as good as any pair in the country and give Purdue the core to make a run at the Final Four.  I've liked this team all season - and they are only getting better as their role players begin to get some confidence and court time.  They could end up as high as a #1 seed with a nice run to win the Big Ten, but more likely settle in around the #3 line.

It's almost February, so that must mean it is time for Michigan State to start turning it on in preparation for March.  Tom Izzo has perfected the "Final Four run from a 3 or 4 seed" act many times, and might just do it again this year.  The Spartans certainly have the talent to be a top seed, but like Purdue, likely settle around the #3 line.

Illinois is another team with the personnel to make a deep run in March.  Their record suggests I should have them slotted behind Minnesota and Wisconsin, but Illinois gets the "lock" nod due to who they have played and lost to.  Losses to Texas, Missouri and Wisconsin away from home shouldn't drop the Illini too far in the committee's eyes.  They'll still likely endure a handfull of losses, but should have a strong enough body of work to land safely in the 4/5 seed range.

Wisconsin strikes again.  They don't have NBA talent loading up their roster like some of their Big Ten counterparts, but all Bo Ryan and his Badgers do is win win win no matter what.  Currently 5-2 in conference, the Badgers are in position to finish second in arguably the top league in the country.  Trips to Ohio State and Purdue still loom, but the Badgers propensity to hammer lesser opponents (including this weekend 32-point drubbing of Northwestern) serves them favorably for an 11 or 12 win season and as high as a #3 seed, but no certainly no worse than a #5 seed in March.

Minnesota is all but a lock, but their lack of marquee wins means they still need to hold up over the rigors of Big Ten play. Early neutral court wins over North Carolina and West Virginia help, but the real bulk of their Big Ten schedule is still to come.  The 3-point loss at Ohio State is encouraging, as is the home win over Purdue.  They only have four games left in conference against the "Top 5" so their home and homes with Northwestern and Indiana are vital to sweep.  My call - Minnesota lands around a #6 seed.


What to make of Northwestern?  They looked good in blowout wins over Indiana, Iowa and Michigan - as well as in tight three and four point losses against Michigan State.  This is also the team that took a 32-point drubbing by Wisconsin and a 25-point loss at Illinois.  Simply put?  The Wildcats are just OK - not terrible, yet nowhere close to the class of the Big Ten's elite.  That likely earns them a seventh place finish and yet another berth in the NIT.

Penn State is another team that is likely not making the Big Dance, but man are they giving teams fits in conference play.  The are only 3-4 in league play, but an impressive 3-4 it is; they own wins over Michigan State and Illinois and two road losses to Ohio State by just three and Purdue on a last-second buzzer beater, 63-62.  Those are their four most recent games.  So - does that great play translate into wins over the bottom half of the conference?  If it does, it isn't unreasonable to think Penn State could sneak up to 9-9, possibly even better in conference.  It may not be enough to get them to the tourney in Talor Battle's senior year, but the Nittany Lions are sure going to make things interesting.

Indiana fans surely must be growing impatient.  It's now year three of the Tom Crean Era, and there is little evidence of progress.  At least Hoosier fans can take solace knowing their good friends in Lexington were in the exact same spot three years ago and their rebuilding took Coach Cal about 45 minutes and four phone calls... The Hoosiers are simply outclassed in Big Ten play.  They lack the size, the scoring, the depth - basically everything needed to compete.  Even the NIT is a stretch for IU. Consider Crean on the clock next season.

Michigan is a program that continues to perplex me.  They have tradition, facilities, resources, a good coach; yet they continue to flounder on the edge of irrelevance.  They gave Kansas a heck of a fight earlier this year, showing some signs of life, but at 1-6 in conference with trips to Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota still remaining Michigan is looking a terrible conference season, and an overall sub-.500 season squarely in the face.  If not for the relative failures of the two coaches who preceded him, I'd say Beilein has reason to be nervous... and actually still might.

The pen is mightier than the team...

If one were taking the "Big Ten" exactly at its name's value, Iowa would be the school you would forget to include.  This once-proud basketball program continues to flounder at the bottom of the league with very little sign of digging itself up off the mat.  The Hawkeyes are just 8-11 (1-6) and have losses to powerhouses like South Dakota State and Long Beach State on their resume.  No postseason for these guys - this year - or anytime soon... Paging Dr. Tom Davis...Dr. Davis...

Big Ten Looks to Start a New Trend in ACC Challenge

Last season the Big Ten laid to rest the seemingly eternal streak of ACC dominance.  Winning last year's challenge was the first time the Big Ten had done so since the series inception more than a decade ago.

Last year's triumph may have been a minor upset, but in order for the ACC to get back on top it is going to take an upset of their own.  For perhaps the first time in the Challenge era, the Big Ten is clearly superior.

Here's a quick breakdown of the matchups, along with some fearless prognostications:

MONDAY:

Virginia @ Minnesota:  Tubby's Gophers have been one of the pleasant surprises of the early season, winning their preseason tourney by downing North Carolina and West Virginia.  They also handled solid mid-majors Wofford, Western Kentucky and Siena, all with relative ease.  They should cruise at home against the Cavaliers.

TUESDAY:

Iowa @ Wake Forest:  Both teams have been dreadful in the early going and look like cellar dwellars in their respective leagues.  I'll take Wake, who I think is a little better than they have played, at home over the Hawkeyes.

Georgia Tech @ Northwestern:  The Wildcats their first real test of the season.  I like them over the Jackets in a close game.

Ohio State @ Florida State:  The Buckeye's were #2 in our preseason poll, and remain the most legitimate challenger (along with Kansas) to the Blue Devils hopes to repeat.  Florida State lacks the offensive punch to score with a very balanced Buckeye attack.

Michigan @ Clemson:  This is a game the Tigers need to win if the ACC has any chance of pulling out the challenge.  I think they will, but this one could be really ugly.  Both teams are sloppy with the ball an inefficient offensively.

North Carolina @ Illinois:  Illinois is one of the quietest good teams in the country. They dropped to #20 after losing an intense game to Texas.  Look for the Illini to exploit Carolina's ballhandling and passing woes into easy buckets and an easy win.

WEDNESDAY:
Indiana @ Boston College:  This is a huge opportunity for the Hoosiers to take the next step in their rebuilding journey and validate their early unbeaten creampuff-aided record.  BC has played in more competitive games early, and that is an advantage, but I still like the Hoosiers to get an upset win on the road.

North Carolina State @ Wisconsin:  The Badgers just do not lose in the Kohl Center.  They won't tonight either.  Give me Bucky in a win over better-than-advertised NC State.

Purdue @ Virginia Tech:  VA Tech might be the second best team in the ACC (hence my 'Can Duke Run the Table' columns).  Purdue is taking some flack for losing to Richmond the other day, but Richmond is a legit Top 20 team.  To me, not as concerning a loss as it seemed on the surface.  Despite the loss of Hummel, Purdue remains Top 10-Top 15 talented with JuJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore.  I like the Boilermakers in the road, stiffling Malcoln Delaney and the Hokies.  This is probably the second best game of the series, I wouldn't miss this one.


Maryland @ Penn State:  This is why God created ESPN-U.  So you and I could watch games like this while 99.9% of the nation could care less.  Maryland is my sleeper pick in the ACC.  I watched them frustrate Pitt for 40 minutes.  Once they figure out who their primary ballhandler is going to be, the Terps could surprise some folks and make the tourney.  Penn State is awful, but enjoy Talor Battle for one more season.  The do-everything guard for the Nittany Lions is one of the most exciting players in the country.  That said, I'll take the Terps on the road.

Michigan State @ Duke:  This is the marquee matchup, and we'll devote a column to it on Wednesday.  I won't give away my pick, but I'm sure you can guess....

OVERALL:  I have the Big Ten winning 7-4 on my fight card. 

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2K Sports Classic Matchup Preview

It doesn't get much better than back-to-back non-conference matchups in Madison Square Garden.

In the 7PM game, Maryland tackles BEast favorite Pitt.  Maryland found themselves a lead guard in Pe'Shon Howard in their opener against Charleston.  Howard got a lot of attention for hitting the game winning basket, however he really won them the game far before that, with his defensive effort in the the final five minutes on Andrew Goudelock who was running rampant on the Terps for 35 minutes.

Howard will have his hands full tonight with veteran Brad Wannamaker and the Pitt Panthers.  Pitt is big and tough, and Ashton Gibbs is a legitimate BEast P.O.Y. candidate.  Maryland has some athletes, but lacks the shooting, size and ballhandling to hang with the Panthers.  Give me Pitt is a double-digit win.

The nightcap is an intriguing one, featuring two teams who late season sputters torpedoed promising season in 2009-2010.  Texas was ranked #1 in the country as the calendar turned to 2010.  Halfway through Big Ten play, Demitri McCamey looked like a challenger to Evan Turner for Big Ten POY candidate, and the Illini were in a five-way tie for first place.

By the end of the season Texas bowed out in the first round of the tourney as a #9 seed, and the Illini headed for the NIT.

Both have much higher expectations for rebounding this season.  Texas lost some size and scoring, but might actually be better for it.  Rick Barnes squad struggled with shot selection all season long, perhaps with too many self-proclaimed All-Stars taking wild shots.  They also had tremendous issues at the point, both with injuries and erratic play.  Illinois returns McCamey and enters the season ranked in the Top 25.  Both teams fancy themselves as deep participants in March.  Tonight will be an interesting barometer of how far along they really are.

I like Texas's athleticism and defensive pressure to stiffle an already suspect Illini offense.  If Texas can avoid their oft brutal foul shooting, I like the Horns in a good early season matchup.

Maniac's Picks:  Pitt -7.5, Texas +3.5
2010-2011 Record: 4-4

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If the RPI Doesn't Lie...

then here is an interesting perspective on a few teams and their respective tourney prospects and seeding.

Regardless of your opinion on the the RPI rankings, it is part of the formula and logic employed by the committee come Selection Sunday.  While many factors of the RPI are beyond a team's control; for example Cornell has fallen from 25th to 49th over the past two weeks due to their weakening schedule strength as they wade through Ivy League play.  Nevermind the fact they are treating their league foes like the UConn Women, the RPI still drops.  However, many factors are controlable, a reality not lost among saavy mid-major schedulers.

Of course it helps if your league goes out and picks up some marquee wins in the pre-conference season.  The A-10 currently has six teams in the RPI's Top 50, four of them in the Top 30.  Wins over teams like Villanova, Cincinnati, Florida, Louisville, Old Dominion, VCU, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Mississippi State do wonders to raise the league's overall profile.  Then, once the in-league attrition begins, as long as your top teams lose only to each other, very little damage is done.

Compare this conversely with what has occurred in the Pac-10.  Their pre-conference struggles were well publicized.  It is reflected in the RPI.  Cal is the first to appear at 26th.  Washington is next at 55th, behind teams like William & Mary, Northeastern and San Diego State.  Is there any wonder the A-10 is talking six bids while out west they are hoping someone other than Cal wins the tourney so they might get two?

Here's a few RPI's worth noting as we enter the final month stretch run:

RPI's that Help:

Northern Iowa (13th):  Most people have the Panthers projected between a 7-9 seed.  Their RPI seems to suggest otherwise.  The precedent is there too; several years ago the committee awarded a two-loss Drake team a #5, despite playing a lesser schedule than No. Iowa this season.

New Mexico (10th): Think Steve Alford's Lobos have a BIG game with UNLV this week?  If New Mex was to win out (unlikely) you could be looking at an unprecedentedly high seed for the Mountain West; as high as a #2.  Realistically the Lobos will lose a game or two, but can still expect to fall in the top four seed lines in March.


Rhode Island (13th):  I think this one is a little bit of fool's gold, buoyed slightly by their scant loss total (just three) and the strength of the A-10. They have a gang of "OK" wins, but lack the Top 25 headliner needed to crack to Top 4 seed lines. They host Richmond tomorrow night, and still have a trip to Temple to make.  Their best wins are Boston College, Northeastern, Oklahoma State and Dayton.  It is unlikely to expect the Rams any higher than a seven or eight unless they win out.

Richmond (30th):  Staying in the A-10, many pundits have Richmond on the bubble.  I say look at their quality wins and RPI.  This team is a lock barring a late collapse.  They have wins over Florida, Temple, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State.  Their losses are ALL road losses: Wake Forest, William & Mary, VCU, South Carolina and two in conference.  Their closing schedule is tough; they still have trips to URI, Xavier and Charlotte, but the Spiders are in position where they can lose two of three and still get in the Dance.

Texas Tech (32nd):  This is an interesting one, as no one has the Red Raiders even on the bubble.  Most have them eight or ninth in a six-bid max Big 12.  So how are they so high?  It would be a nearly unprecedented anomaly for a team from a power conference with an RPI of 32 to NOT recieve a bid, but Tech is a good illustration of the most significant flaw of the RPI system.   They have a good record against the RPI Top 50-100 (3-0) and even better against RPI 100-200 (7-0).  The problem?  They are 1-7 against the Top 50, with nary a quality win outside of UTEP, Washington and Oklahoma State.  Oddly enough, if Washington can get rolling and UTEP stays hot, it will be hard to exclude Tech IF (and a huge IF here, they are currently 3-5) they can get to .500 in Big 12 play.

Siena (31st):  The Saints are 14-0 in MEAC play.  With an RPI at 31, many a team on the bubble will be rooting for them in the MEAC Tourney.  They are dancing either way.  If they fall in the MEAC, they are taking one of the big boys off the bubble with them.


Wichita State (37th):  The Shockers strong RPI make it possible for the Valley to sneak two teams into the Dance, but they better not leave too much to chance by leaving any more wins on the table.  It really depends on how many bubble busters occur in conference tournaments, provided the Shockers can't capture their own.

RPI's that Hurt:

Virginia (94th):  The Cavs better win 11 in ACC play (possible, they are 5-3) otherwise the early losses and brutal RPI keep them on the sidelines come tourney time.  None of this diminishes the job Tony Bennett is doing in Charlottesville though.

Mississippi St (70th):  The SEC in general isn't getting a lot of help from the RPI.  It isn't as bad as last year, but the message remains the same - if you want six or seven bids you are going to have to beat people outside of your conference.  I'm not sure Mississippi State can rebound enough to make the tourney, with the SEC West so devoid of opportunities for quality wins.  They better knock of Kentucky when the Cats come to Starkville.

Notre Dame (61st):  Remember the column about the pathetic scheduling efforts of the Irish this year?  THIS is when it comes back to bite you in the ass.  With no quality wins to seperate themselves, they are forced to not just stay even with Cincinnati, UConn and Marquette; they have to finish clearly ahead of them.  That might be asking a bit too much this season.


Tulsa (62nd):  An RPI of 62 pretty much sinks your at-large chances, particularly when two teams from your mid-major league (UAB, UTEP) are making strong claims for bids.  The Golden Hurricane get a chance to make their RPI moot with a trip to Cameron Indoor later this month.

RPI's that Really Don't Matter:

Ohio State (37th):  The RPI could care less about Evan Turner's back... but the Committee will.  Finish with 11 or 12 wins in the Big Ten and the Bucks will earn a Top 4 seed.

Illinois (72nd):  RPI can't measure what a win in the Kohl Center is worth.  The committee can.  At 9-3 in Big Ten play, barring a collapse the Illini are going to the Dance.  Add in wins over Clemson and Vandy, and factor in that all four non-conference losses were to Top 100 teams and by three or less points.  Throw the RPI completely out the window for Illinois, they are dancing.

Introducing Demitri McCamey

First things first, what a GREAT win for the Illini tonight at Wisconsin.  No one wins at Wisconsin.  The win puts them in a big log jam tie for first if Purdue can clip Sparty tonight.  Either way it absolutely punches Illinois' ticket to the Dance.  It gives them nine wins in league and makes it a virtual certainty they finish well over .500 in league play.  Add in the wins over Clemson and Vanderbilt and they are sitting pretty. 

Now let's talk Big Ten POY.  Everyone knows Evan Turner.  Most people know Kalin Lucas and Robbie Hummel.  Let me introduce you to a new entrant to the mix; Demetri McCamey.

He is averaging 15.5 points, over 6 assists and 3.5 boards a night.  More importantly, he is absolutely shouldering the load for the Illini on their surprising run at the Big Ten title.  Tonight he simply willed Illinois past Wisconsin in a building they have already slain giants like Duke, Michigan State and Purdue.  In the 63-56 win McCamey had 27 points on 11 of 16 shooting.  More impressivly he had seven of the team's eight assists.  That means he accounted for 43 of his team's 63 points, or more than 70%.  He WAS Illinois tonight.

Correction, he WAS first place Illinois tonight..

Quick Picks - Feb 9th

It's a real good night on ESPN, nearly every game is an interesting and relativly meaningful one.

In the early game, I really like the way Vanderbilt is coming together and love their home court edge.  A win tonight gives them a stranglehold on second place in the SEC East and puts them a home-win over Kentucky away from making a heckuva case for a #3 seed in March.  Plus the loss to UGA over the weekend has to leave a bad taste in the mouth.  Gimme the 'Dores -3.

It's been a tough week for Oklahoma hoops with the off the court troubles following the surprising Texas win.  I'm not really sure how a team that has played as poorly as the Sooners is laying 6.5 to Texas Tech.  Give me the Red Raiders and the points.

Repeat after me, "no one wins in the Kohl Center."  I think I have finally learned my lesson.  Wisconsin's ability to hold serve at home, along with the Kalin Lucas injury and Evan Turner's rapid recovery have made for a real interesting stretch run to the Big Ten championship.  Give me the Badgers in a romp, sparking the beginning of the Illini's NIT-slide.

In the Big Ten clash tonight, I haven't seen definitively if Kalin Lucas is a go or not.  Obviously without him the Spartans are a much different team.  Purdue's ability to defend ball screens and pressure the ball without having to double is tough to play against at full strength; if you are missing your reigning Big Ten POY it is darn near impossible.  Give me the Boilers +3 tonight at the Breslin Center.  Purdue can force a four-way tie atop the Big Ten with a win tonight (Either Illinois or likely Wisconsin being the fourth, along with Ohio State).

MANIAC'S PICKS: 

Vandy -3
Mason +4
TX Tech +6.5
Purdue +3
Wisconsin -9.5

Tuesday's Quick Picks - January 19th, 2010

We have a nice bevy of quality games tonight.  Tennessee, America's new darling team, faces a tricky road trip trap game in Tuscaloosa.  The Tide have given Purdue and Vandy fits in their gym and also beaten Michigan.  I'm making no official pick on this one, but it is worth a watch as Tennessee is creeping into legitimate #1 seed discussions.

Another fantastic conference game is taking place in Atlanta tonight.  I was blown away by the explosive quickness and leaping ability of Gani Lawal, and even more impressed with his strength watching him manhandle Carolina's vaunted interior.  It will be a blast watching him and Clemson's Booker bang all game.  This is another game I wouldn't dare touch in Vegas, but I would wager you are watching two of the three best teams in the ACC face off tonight.

Ok, now for same games I will put my name on:

George Mason, like Creighton and Utah, had miserable pre-conference seasons but still seem capable of spoiling some things once conference play starts.  Hofstra is a tough place to win, and they have been solid in CAA play, but I like the Patriots and the four and a half tonight.

Evan Turner is my National Player of the Year (still), and many readers will be surprised to see where Ohio State lands in tomorrow's Bracketeering.  That said, laying 12 is a lot to a good Northwestern team, fresh off their win over Purdue.  Ohio State wins, but I'll take NW and the 12.

Oklahoma is 2-1 in conference play, and from a distance seems to have steadied the once-promising ship.  From a distance.  This team takes terrible shots and looks like a playground team at times.  The win over Mizzou is a good one, but I'll still lay the seven and take Texas A&M at home.

Surely Purdue can't lose another game in a row, right?  That logic burnt me this weekend at Northwestern, but I'm sticking to my guns tonight when they travel to Champaigne.  I still think the Illini are a bit overrated and a bubble team by the time the season winds down.  If Purdue drops THIS one, it is time to push the panic button in West Lafayette.

In my final pick, let me start by saying Northern Iowa is really good.  In my estimation, they are a tourney lock, and though we've had them higher than the polls all year (who finally ranked the Panthers), deserve their spot in Bracketeering.  However, there is nothing tougher than knocking off a familiar, talented conference rival in their barn.  The Panthers are going to try to do just that tonight at Wichita State.  I like the Shockers laying two, in a good win not only for them, but also for the MVC's hopes of earning more than one bid.

MANIAC'S PICKS:

Northwestern +12

Wichita St. -2

Texas A&M -7

George Mason +4.5

Purdue -4

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New Year's Conference Resolutions: Big Ten

Here's the first of ten conference installments of some New Year's Resolutions and Prognostications. As always, your dissension is welcomed...

BIG TEN:

The Big Ten had all the makings of the best conference in the country heading into the season. Legit Final Four contenders? Purdue & Michigan State. National Player of the Year candidate? Evan Turner of Ohio State more than fit the bill. Tons of tourney caliber teams? Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State & Minnesota all were ranked preseason, with Wisconsin entering shortly after beating Duke early. Penn State was fresh off their NIT championship and Northwestern was entertaining dreams of their first ever NCAA tourney appearance. Heck, optimism was even high down in Bloomington with the rebuilding Hoosiers.

So what happened?

Michigan State got routed by North Carolina, Texas and lost to middling Florida. Ohio State lost Evan Turner to a broken back (amazing as it sounds, he will likely be back this season), Minnesota has struggled on the court and off, Michigan has been a disaster and Illinois has been disappointing. Penn State may not even be good enough to get back to the NIT to defend their crown and Indiana will need another year of rebuilding before being relevant.

In short, the Big Ten's shortfalls continue to glare compared to the bright lights of the Big East, ACC and Big 12 for yet another year.

Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:

The Good:
Purdue looks fantastic, and a legit contender to get to Indy. I can't see them any lower than a #2 or #3 seed come March, and I wouldn't bet against a #1 (the win over WVU in the hip pocket). They have good veteran leadership and much like Florida 2006-07, a fantastic understanding of their individuals roles within the team construct.

I'd never bet against Tom Izzo and Michigan State in March. They do it every year, and have more than enough talent to get back to yet another Final Four.

If Ohio State gets back a healthy Even Turner they can be a real sleeper. I thought they were a legit third contender to win the Big Ten before the injury, and are of course a completely different team without him. Unfortunately Turner might return a little too late to salvage a decent seed.

I like Wisconsin's chances getting back to the dance as well. Every year Wisconsin is supposed to be down. Every year Bo Ryan's Badgers defend on the court, defend their home court, and defend their NCAA consecutive appearance streak. It's going to happen again this year.

The Unknown:
Tubby has had a tumultuous off season with his Minnesota Gophers and a rough November. Consecutive losses to Portland, Texas A&M and Miami dropped them off the national radar and left them with only a quality win over Butler for the resume. They are 10-3 and healthy and poised to make a run. I think Tubby's Gophers get it going and finish a solid 5th.

I'm not sure what to make of Illinois. My gut feeling is they are on the outside looking in come March. They've lost to Bradley, a bad Georgia team and a terrible Utah club. Those are going to be tough losses to overcome without ten wins in conference. The opening win over Northwestern helps, but I think they come up short.

Speaking of Northwestern, the Wildcats made their first appearance in the Top 25...and promptly followed it up with a loss to the Illini. Sentiment has me pulling for the Wildcats. Logic tells me they come up just a bit short...again. Check out the upcoming schedule: @ Mighigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, @Ohio State, Illinois, @Minnesota, @Michigan State. Wow. Win even three of these and we'll talk tourney. Find me three games they will be favored in on that slate...

Penn State is a major disappointment to me. The Nittany Lions and Talor Battle just haven't conjured up the magic this year. Early losses to Tulane and NC Wilmington put a ton of pressure on them to go over .500 in conference. It ain't happenin'

Michigan remains the biggest enigma. They are easily tourney-talented. Then the lose their opener to Indiana. Not a way to statr if you have serious aspirations in March. They are 6-6 with a bad loss to Utah and questionable losses to Alabama and Indiana. That leaves a lot of work to do in Ann Arbor. And fast.

The BAD:
Indiana is at least worth watching this year. They play well at home and will likely pick up a handful of conference wins this year. The loss of Maurice Creek hurts, and it is tough to see this young Hoosier team winning many on the road. After all, surprising wins over Pitt and Michigan aside, this is a team that lost to Boston U, George Mason and Loyola (Md). No postseason this year, but the future is bright in Bloomington.

Um, not so much in Iowa. The Hawkeyes are terrible. They've lost to Texas-San Antonio, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Duquesne...and they are going to lose to every single team in the Big Ten at least once.

Final Score:
Purdue, Michigan State are Top 4 seeds. Ohio State gets Turner back in time to get in, Wisconsin and Minnesota earn bids.

Michigan and Illinois spend a rocky few weeks on each side of the bubble. I think the Wolverines get it together just in time to slip in as the 6th Big Ten team while Illinois joins Northwestern in NIT.

Penn State, Indiana and Iowa - make early March tee times.

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Big Chance for the Big Ten

It has been widely covered this week how the Big Ten has never beaten the ACC in the Challenge. I found that surprising, given the ACC's recent top-heaviness, but am not stunned. Regardless, this year seems to be the Big Ten's chance to break through.

Here is a guide to this week's games:

MONDAY: Penn State def. Virginia - Not surprising as Penn State is as strong as any 8th or 9th place team in any normal size (BEast excluded) conference in America. It's a good start for the Ten.

TUESDAY: A really good slate of games highlighted by Michigan State's trip to UNC at 9PM (ESPN HD). The undercard isn't bad either with Wake @ Purdue, Northwestern at NC State, Maryland @ Indiana, and Iowa @ Virginia Tech.

I am not sure exactly how the matchups are determined, but Maryland v. Indiana seems an odd mismatch, with IU being figured no higher than 9th (probably 10th or 11th) in the Big Ten. When your predicted finish is lower than the number of teams in the NAME OF YOUR LEAGUE it is not going to be a real banner season. Ditto for Iowa, the only team scraping the bottom with Indiana. Their draw of VA Tech seems a bit ambitious as well.

MANIAC'S PICKS: Purdue, Maryland, VA Tech, Northwestern in a surprise, and North Carolina continuing to haunt Izzo and the Spartans; this time with a nearly entirely new cast...

WEDNESDAY: More great action starts at 7PM with Illinois trying to stabilize a disappointing start with a win at Clemson. Other games in the early going feature Minnesota @ Miami, and Boston College @ Michigan. The late games are two really good ones when Duke tries to do what very few have recently; win at the Kohl Center against the Badgers, and Florida State visiting Evan Turner and the Ohio State Buckeyes.

MANIAC'S PICKS: Clemson, Miami (FL), Michigan, Duke and Ohio State.

FINAL TALLY: ACC gets 'em again, by a close 6-5 margin.

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Battle-ing Their Way In

The Maniac was typing up a nice obituary for Ed DeChellis and his pleasantly surprising Nittany Lions when a funny thing happened against Illinois. No, not the 38-33 knee-slapper like last time, this time something genuinely entertaining and aesthetically pleasing; the Nittany Lions roared back.

Despite a few tough calls that went against them, Penn State hung around and hung around. Even after falling behind by double digits, they kept making enough plays to stay close.

I am sure you have probably seen it on SportsCenter already, but Talor Battle's length of the court dramatic lay-up with 0.3 seconds remaining is the shot that probably put the improbable Lions into the Big Dance.

Notice I said "probably". If you listen to the ESPN pundits, I am pretty sure they have 77 teams in the field right now; Penn State's win was a huge one, but not an "automatic" bid by any stretch. Michigan got their BIG win, so did Minnesota. Right now, March Maniacs has Penn State IN, but barely.

We will unveil our "40" sometime tomorrow afternoon
(for those of you new - 34 at large bids + conference champs from Big 6 = 40 slots. It is the easiest way to keep track of the fluidity, and not get caught up in the "win that gets them in" every night on ESPN.)

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Big Wins and Damaging Losses

Everything in the final few weeks is under a much closer magnifying glass. There are a few teams who might wish they could have shuffled yesterday's losses into the November mulligan pile.

Bad Losses:

• Miami (FL) all but sealed their NIT fate last night, falling to Florida State 80-67. The Canes join Notre Dame and Georgetown as one of the most disapointing teams in 2009.

• Illinois was starting to gather some momentum as a possible top-4 seed. Last night that came to a clanking halt. Let me emphasize "clank." As in 33 points. Yup, just 33 points. Granted Penn State netted only 38 in what has to be one of the lousier "decent" games of the season.

• Providence wasn't supposed to win at Louisville, but posting another double-digit loss against a formidable foe gives some ammo to the case for leaving out the Friars. One of their only saving graces might be the fact that Georgetown and Notre Dame seemingly refuse to make a late season charge, and the Big East is GOING to get eight teams in...

• Butler dropped another game last night, this time a three point loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Butler peaked in the Top 10, but is looking more like a 10 seed if they don't get it together quickly.

• Someone should volunteer to play defense down in Knoxville. Most people still have the Vols comfortably in the tourney, but they sure are begging the committee to reconsider. Last night they got drubbed 81-65 by Ole Miss to fall to 7-4 in conference. They are 7-7 over their last 14 games overall. The Vols are still in decent shape, but with games still remaining against Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina they can still play themselves out of the tourney.

• Speaking of South Carolina, losing to Mississippi State is not the way to play yourself onto the good side of the bubble. The Gamecocks still have some work to do over the next three weeks.

• Ohio State is the same story; things were looking good until last night's surprising loss to Northwestern. With a few tips and breaks here and there, we wouldn't be talking about Ohio State's bad loss, but perhaps the Wildcats big win. Alas, that was a game the Buckeyes needed to stay in the Big Ten race.

• Perhaps the worst loss of the night was Virginia Tech. The Hokies find themselves in the bubble muddle in the middle of the deep ACC along with Florida State, BC, Miami and Maryland. That made losing to in-state rival Virginia particularly damning for VA Tech.

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Many Roads...

Arizona put up 104 point in their dire straits win of Washington. Minnesota got a huge Big 10 win holding Illinois to 36 points. The difference? 68 points.

The result? One team keeps their season alive, the other is getting close to locking up their first tourney bid in several years.

- I am sure I am not the only one TiVoing the Zags/Gaels game tonight. Should be a great one. I'll take Gonzaga flexing their WCC muscle tonight, but keep an eye on Patty Mills. Had a chance to see him live in December; heckuva ballplayer.

Show-Me Games of the Week

These games will give us some separation at the top and upper-echelon of some tough conferences.

Tuesday:

Ohio St @ Illinois - Both teams enter in the 20-30 range in most polls and 3-2 in Big Ten play. I think both teams will Dance, but this game could loom large when their resumes go side-by-side.

Wednesday:

Villanova @ UConn - Nova is 2-2 in conference with a trip to UConn looming. Villanova sits on the precarious spot of being the "ninth" team in the nation's deepest and biggest conference. No conference has ever gotten nine bids in March. I wouldn't want to be the one hoping that UNLV or Crieghton or George Mason haven't captured the committee's wandering Cinderella eyes...

Clemson @ UNC -Fifty three times... wow. I am sure you have heard/read the stat many times by now. Clemson brings one of their better teams into Chapel Hill... and still leaves with number fifty four.

Arizona St. @ Arizona - Mayday! Mayday! The Cats are in real trouble. At 2-4 in Pac-10 play and 11-7 overall, it is going to take somelike a win over in-state rival ASU to revitalize a moribund season and keep the nation's longest active NCAA Tourney appearance streak alive.


Thursday:

Minnesota @ Purdue - The conference's best surprise meets the conference's biggest dissapointment. Funny, both have 2 conference losses. The winner take a big step forward in the race to chase Michigan State for the conference crown.

Saturday:

Memphis @ Tennessee - This year lacks the zip of last year's #1 vs #2 Holy War, but still packs some importance. Memphis has one last chance to pick up a resume builder before fattening up on C-USA fluff. Tennessee gets a chance to pick up a much needed non-conference win for the much-maligned, but perhaps just late blooming, SEC.

UCLA @ Washington - The Huskies might be the biggest sleeper in the country, with NBA-quality big man John Brockton and a 4-1 conference record. The winner moves into first place in the Pac-10.

Xavier @ LSU - same drill as the above Memphis v. Tennessee analysis. LSU needs the win a little more desperatly, as their resume is blank and their early SEC play hasn't been good. Xavier can ill-afford another slip-up if they have aspirations of holding a Top 4 seed in March.

Best Foot Forward - Impessive Conference Debuts

The new year marks the advent of conference play, and here is where some of the separation between the contenders and pretenders begins. Several teams served notice the are here to play in 2009.

Impressive Debuts:

Illinois - A win on the road at preseason conference favorite Purdue is a nice way to open Big 10 play. The Illini are two points away (@Clemson) from being undefeated. It looks like Bruce Webber has his team poised to return to the tourney.

Georgetown - With the stumbles of Louisville and Notre Dame and the win at UConn, it is hard to say Georgetown isn't the top team in the nation's best conference at this point.

Illinois St. - They entered last night's game undefeated, yet most still pegged Creighton, Drake or Evansville as the team to beat in the MVC. The Redbirds 80-50 thumping of Evansville just added a fourth name to the discussion.

Arkansas - Yes, they had to hold on for dear life, but the Hogs took it too Oklahoma and Blake Griffin Tuesday night. As much as I have ripped the SEC, it is not unreasonable to think that both they and LSU could make five teams dancing for the conference come March.

Dissapointments:

Lousiville - Another tough loss, this one at home to UNLV. The loss accentuated one of the Cards fatal flaws; with 12 seconds to go, they have no clue who is supposed to have the ball. Their lack of a point guard and offensive creativity could make for a very underwhelming year in the Commenwealth.

Gonzaga - The UConn loss was probably the best game played this season in college basketball. The Arizona loss was not great, but excusable. The Portland State loss was a classic "hangover game." So, please give me some ratioanle for last night's Utah loss? If they weren't "Gonzaga", at 8-4 in a mid-major league, would you think this team is a lock to dance? Most certainly not.

The Zags have left themselves some surprising work to do in conference play. With Portland, San Diego and St. Mary's, it may not be as automatic as most people think.

Minnesota - Don't get me wrong, the Gophers and Tubby Smith have a lot to be happy about. However, a home drubbing in the conference opener by the Spartans indicate things haven't changed quite as much as Minnesota might have hoped.

St. Joe's - The Hawks entered the season with aspirations of returning to the tourney. After consecutive losses to Siena and Drexel dropped them to 5-7, NIT aspirations seem lofty.

Tuesday Round Up - Best Games Across the Nation 12/30

There were some great statement wins last night. Georgetown announced its presence with authority in the Big East. Memphis defended their home court against the Bearcats, with tenacity and captured a much needed resume win before C-USA play, and Davidson went to Charleston and beat their stiffest conference foe - putting the SoCon on notice that they could once again run the table.

Tonight, several other teams get a chance to make some noise.

GAME OF THE NIGHT:

7 PM - Illinois @ Purdue

The Illini have been one of the season's pleasant surprises with their 11-1 start. Tonight they get a chance to validate it with an impressive showing at Purdue. The Boilers were ambushed in Mackey by Duke, but are a tough squad to beat in their building. I like the poise and defense of the Boilers tonight.

This place will be rockin' tonight

7 PM UAB @ Butler

UAB got off to a promising start, beating Arizona on the road in the Preseason NIT. Since then, they have backslid a little, losing games to Oklahoma (understandable) and Louisville by 20. Add in loses to BC and Cincinnati, and this is a game they can ill-afford to lose if they have any hope of earning at at-large bid (assuming Memphis wins the C-USA tourney for the umpteenth straight time).

Butler comes in with a lone 3-point loss, at Ohio State, and fresh off a win over Xavier at the Cintas Center. This would be one more feather in the Bulldog's cap come seeding time.

7 PM George Mason @ Dayton

George Mason is the interesting case of a small school exploding so prominently onto the national stage that they begin to become a bit overrated. This is not to say they are not a good team, but just that Dayton is still the prohibitive favorite. This is a huge opportunity for both school, particularly the Patriots, to grab a huge non-conference resume win.

They are good on '08... not THAT good though.

7 PM Clemson @ South Carolina

An in-state skirmish between tow decent ball clubs. Clemson is off to a fantastic start (stop me if you have heard that one before), but better not over look Devan Downey and the Gamecocks. The win over Illinois is a good one. The subsequent win over Miami (FL) was impressive as well. Capture this one tonight, and the Tigers are well positioned for March entering ACC play.

8:05 PM Oklahoma @ Arkansas

Oklahoma has been the most consistent team in the nation (Carolina excluded), and will get a quality test tonight in Fayetteville. Gone are the days of "40 minutes of hell" but the Hogs still get after it on defense. Still, Willie Warren and Blake Griffin might be too much for them to handle.

MANIAC'S PICKS:
UAB +6.5, Oklahoma +6 (LOCK), Dayton -8, Clemson - 2.5, Purdue -6.5

Bracketeering - College Basketball Rankings Dec 22nd

What a difference a week makes. Big name school asserted themselves (UConn, Duke, Michigan St.) "mid-majors" looked middling (Xavier, Davidson), and a few big conference unheralded squads began to place themselves squarely into the Bracketeering discussion (Minnesota, Clemson).

Little changed at the top; at the VERY top that is, other than another great addition to history, as Tyler Hansbrough eclipsed Phil Ford's 30-year standing as the leading scorer in the illustrious history of North Carolina basketball. Up next? Tyler sets his sights on JJ Reddick's ACC mark (our guesss? expect sometime in February...hey, what else is in February? Oh yeah, a trip to Cameron Indoor...hmmm)

That said, let's digg into Week 5 of Bracketeering!

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FINAL FOUR:

1. UNC - Perhaps they just beat everyone by twenty; they did the same to Evansville and Valpo this week. Other 20-point victims this year? Kentucky, Notre Dame and Michigan St.

2. UConn- Speaking of "focus." I think we all see what can happen when the Huskies hunker down. This team is loaded, loaded, loaded with AJ Price an excellent equivalent to Ty Lawson at the point. There are some reason to grade this team tough (schedule, close games to sub RPI-100 teams) but lets be truthful. No one else has the depth or horses (other than maybe Duke) to give UNC a game.

3. Oklahoma - I love these guys more every time I watch them. Wins over VCU may not pique the nation's fancy; but they are a good sign this team possesses the focus to not stumble in the second round come March.

4. Duke - Michigan game aside (the second one, when Scheyer and Singler went icicles against the 1-3-1 halfcourt) this has been the second best team in the country. Their thorough dismantling of Xavier Saturday looked like a Final Four team. They are versatile (Singler, Henderson), deep (nine players solid - I know, "Paulus sucks" but name me a better backup PG in America??), and tenacious defensively. This team scored 21 points and forced a half dozen turnovers before giving up a single bucket to a very good Xavier club.

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Pitt - Nice win over Florida State. Pitt is good. An eight point win over Florida State is not enough to put them in the Top 4. They will take on their first ranked opponent Jan 3rd @ Georgetown. I am looking forward to that game, it should be a nice unveiling for Sam Young, LaVance Fields and company.

6. Purdue - This is a complete ballclub when they are getting offensive contributions from their point guards and bigs like they did against Davidson Saturday. E'Twan Moore has not been "All-American" good like some media outlets projected, but Purdue plays a fluid team style that does not lend to statistics. The defensive effort of Chris Kramer on Steph Curry this weekend was masterful. Purdue is a contender in an absolutely fantastic Big 10.

7. Ohio State - The Elite 8 numbers six through eight was tough this week. The AP poll give you: Wake Forest, Gonzaga & Notre Dame. Two of those teams have TWO losses; the other (Wake Forest) I defy any of our readers to make a compelling case that they are the 6th best team in America. Meanwhile the unbeaten Bucks languish in the low teens. If the pre-season polls had them ranked, they would be #4 right now. We at least have them 7th. And that's probably why you are one of our readers. .. (we appreciate it, b.t.w.)

8. Gonzaga - A loss yes, but not one to drop them in Bracketeering. An overtime loss to the 2nd best team in the nation should not be a crippler. But, the Arizona loss has us a little uneasy (particularly after they got housed by UNLV on Saturday). Gonzaga is really good, but seems to be teetering a bit on underachieveing...

Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)

9. Syracuse - The AP poll has them 17th this week. The buzzer beater loss to Cleveland State? Yup, a bad one. The subsequent road win at Memphis minus Devendorf makes up for it. If you are scoring at home, Boeheim's December bakery run has been replaced with wins over Florida, Kansas and the aforementioned Tigers.

10. Wake Forest - Undefeated still, but we have a little different criteria to move UP than the AP poll does (their criteria? "teams losing ahead of you while you munch cupcakes") Honestly, do you think this is the 6th best team in the country?? Other than the win over Baylor, there is little to brag about pre-ACC.

11. Georgetown - Things are going great so far for the Hoyas, but their stretch from Dec 29th - Jan 6th is BRUTAL (UConn, Notre Dame and Pitt). Survive that unblemished? #2 is realistic. Let's win ONE first though...

12. Notre Dame - My highest ranked 2-loss club other than Gonzaga. They get a free pass for the UNC loss, I think most of us were amazed by HOW good UNC is; that win was the grand unveiling. However, with Harangody healthy again, this is a legit Final Four caliber team.

13. Michigan St. - They firmly handled Texas in Dallas. Izzo's teams are always better in March than November. If they are as good as they looked in Dallas this weekend, look out.

14. UCLA - Time to stop punishing them for two close losses. The Michigan loss seems more reasonable after their handling of Duke, and losing @ Texas is no embarrassment. As J'Rue Holliday gets more comfortable, the Bruins are looking more comfortable winning a down Pac-10.

15. Missouri - Their only loss was a last-minute defeat to Xavier in Puerto Rico. They have beaten Cal and Arizona State handily. Their game tonight against Illinois is a quiet GREAT game. I like them at #15 over more heralded conference mate Baylor. Tonight will show me if I am right.

16. Michigan - The Big Ten is legit. Their could easily be 6 teams in the top 16 if I was ready to consider Minnesota "good" more than I consider Louisville "un-good". Michigan's wins over UCLA and Duke stand on their own. However, since then, the Wolverines have been biding time tackling stalwarts like Florida Gulf Coast and Oakland. Since they haven't played anyone, it is hard to move them up - and their wins haven't gotten any LESS impressive. So for now - they stay at #16.

They resume basketball next week playing Wisconsin and Illinois. Win those and we can consider moving them up.


Slippin': The Maniac drops the hammer

Xavier - It hurts, but lets be honest. Saturday showed that senior BJ Raymond was right when he called the Muskies "the worst undefeated team in the country."

Yes! I agree! #7 was WAY too high!

Louisville - This season reminds me of '05 for the Cards. Preseason Top 5 ranking. A few big name returners, a big-time heralded recruit coming, and disappointing loss after disappointing loss. Cards fans hope this year doesn't end in similar Spring kNITinng.

Texas - The polls won't punish them as hard as we will for the Michigan State loss... because it is NOT about the Michigan State game. It is the back-to-back somnambulistic performances versus in-state corpses Texas St & Texas Southern.


Closing In...
Villanova, Illinois, St. Mary's, Baylor, Tennessee, UNLV, Butler

Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on
Drake, Kentucky, Dayton, VMI, Illinois-Chicago, Evansville, Boston College, Texas A&M, Houston, Illinois St, Charleston, IUPUI

Davidson might have even more to worry about; Charleston can PLAY..

LOOKING BACK...
Intriguing...Now Come Out and Play! (Copied from LAST week - let's see each team's responses)

Minnesota (10-0) - Georgia St, Virginia, Bowling Green (yes, those are their "best" wins)
Went out and whooped Lousiville. "Nuff Said. Tubby has more than just getting to the tourney on his mind from here on out.

Stanford (5-0) - Air Force, Colorado, Colorado St. (that's right, you're my bitch Colorado!)
Nice home win over Northwestern. Still have some proving to do.

LSU (7-0) - This list is simply awesome, I shall post it in it's entirety: Troy, Centenary, CSU Fullerton, Jackson St, Alcorn St, Grambling St, Northwestern St. (3-0 vs. the SWAC!!)
Lost to Texas A&M by a dozen. Oh well, there's always the SWAC tournament...