They might have some fight on the bench, but apparantly that fighting spirit doesn't translate to the court.
St. Mary's took advantage of a sloppy and listless Bulldog squad from the opening tap, sending Mississippi State to their fourth loss in five games. At 8-6 with losses to East Tennessee State and FAU on the resume, nothing short of a miracle is getting the Bulldogs to post-season play. Last year they were one of the only teams with a legitimate complaint being left out of the field of 65. This year? Even the NIT is feeling a little ambitious.
St. Mary's stellar backcourt led the way as Matthew Dellavedova and Mickey McConnell combined to make eleven three point buckets, tallying 24 and 28 points respectively. The Gaels, which have featured eleven players from Australia in the past five seasons, play with an international style that makes them difficult to defend. They run a ton of pick and pops with nearly every player they suit up capable of hurting teams from behind the arc. They used that deadly marksman ship to jump out to a 51-34 halftime lead and comfortably cruised to the 94-72 win.
Up next for the Gaels is a New Year's Eve should-win against Hartford before entering WCC play as no worse than co-favorite with perennial champ Gonzaga.
Showing posts with label Mississippi St. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mississippi St. Show all posts
Wednesday Gems in Mid-Major Land
Last night's Pitt v. UConn game ushered in the onset of conference play with a bang. The game may have been slightly overlooked thanks to the odd Tuesday Night Football game, but college hoops fans had to be delighted with a great matchup to jumpstart phase two of the college sesason. Non-conference play is almost over, but tonight serves up a nice handful a final conference comparison games.
There are a few more nice major conference match-ups tonight (West Virginia v. St Johns, Georgetown v. Notre Dame), but the most interesting games are taking place far from the reach of nationally televised contests. Here's a quick breakdown of some games worth visiting www.channelsurfing.net for (great links to dozens of hard-to-find games)
7:00 PM -- Furman (8-2) @ UCF (11-0)
UCF has been one of the nation's most pleasnat surprises, riding their undefeated start to #19 in the AP polls. Tonight they get a tricky potential trap game as the Paladins (nominee for oddest nickname - ANYONE know what a "Paladin" is? Email it our way) head to UCF Arena in the first game of the UCF Holiday Classic. Furman's two losses, a 4-point loss to Kent State (who is playing good ball and could win the MAC) and a 24 point drubbing to Penn State.
The Nittany Lions still have Talor Battle (I believe he is in his eleventh year of eligibility...) and beat Indiana last night in Bloomington to kick off Big Ten play. The point being, the loss may not be that bad. Furman enters fresh off a double digit win over South Carolina. The Knights better be sharp tonight or they could be susceptible to an upset.
7:00 PM -- George Mason (9-2) @ Dayton (10-3)
I have both of these teams IN in my earliest prediction bracket for the Big Dance, but both have a lot of work to do to get there. Dayton had some struggles early dropping a tough game to East Tennessee St and enduring a humiliating 68-34 loss to state rival Cincinnati. Since then, the Flyers have regrouped, winning three in a row including last night's 69-65 win at Seton Hall. The Flyers are the most athletic team in the Atlantic 10 and have the talent to unseat Temple, Xavier and Richmond as the A-10's top team.
George Mason fields their best team since their legendary Final Four run in 2006. Their two losses both came outside the continental USA in November, NC State and a final-possession loss to SoCon favorite Wofford. Since then the Patriots wins have been solid, if not spectacular. Tonight marks their first true Top 75 team challenge since Cancun. This is their last chance to pick up a much-needed resume win before entering league play in the brutal Colonial. As of now, they'd be a bubble team at best.
This is the best game of the night, in my opinion. Too bad ESPN chose to give us Duke v. UNC Greensboro and Texas-Arlington v. Kansas instead...
7:00 PM -- Wofford (5-6) @ VCU (7-4)
Wofford is easily the best 5-6 team in the country. All kidding aside, the Terriers schedule has been among the most brutal in the country with losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Air Force, Georgetown, Xavier (3 OT) and South Carolina. More important to note, none of those teams travelled to Wofford's gym. They may have little shot at an at-large bid, but without a doubt their schedule prepared them well to run through the SoCon. A win tonight would give them wins over two of the CAA's top teams (G.Mason), and could be the difference between a #14/#15 seed and a more winnable 4/13 game.
VCU on the other hand faces a much more difficult conference slate and has slipped outside of strong at-large contender range. A loss tonight would be a brutal blow to any at-large hopes the Rams might be harboring. Their win over UCLA was decent, but there is little else to write home about. They have the most athletic team in the CAA and could be a dangerous #11/#12 seed come March if they can right the ship, starting with tonight.
9:05 PM -- Hawaii (9-3) @ Utah State (11-2)
WAC play gets off to a blazing start tonight as the two top teams face off in Orem. Hawaii played surprisingly well in the Honolulu Christmas tournament, knocking off Utah and Mississippi State to claim the consolation bracket. The losses to Florida State and BYU were disspointing in margin, but not "bad losses" per se. The loss to Cal Poly would be a crippler if they find themselves in the 22-23 win range and contending for an at-large birth.
Utah State finds themselves in an all-too-familiar position; great record with little in terms of quality wins. Their losses, by 6 to BYU and at Georgetown won't hurt their profile. Beating Hawaii not only gives them a Top 100 win, it also gets them the early leg up in the WAC standings.
9:35 PM -- Air Force (8-3) @ UTEP (10-3)
Air Force is a middle of the pack team in their league, but given the sterling performance of the MWC thus far this season, being a middle-of-the packer is actually a compliment. One could say nearly the identical thing about UTEP. It's unlikely either of these teams make the NCAA Tournament, but both are solid NIT contenders. Tonight's game gives a nice comparison opportunity for the Mountain West and Conference USA.
11:00 PM -- St.Mary's (10-2) vs. Mississippi State (8-5): Game played in Las Vegas.
St Mary's is two years removed from Patty Mills and one year past Omar Samhan. Despite losing two of the best players in school history, St. Mary's is right in the mix to return to the NCAA Tourney for the second straight year and appear to be poised to snap Gonzaga's decade long stanglehold on the WCC's regular season championship. St. Mary's defeated St John's early in the year, and their only two losses are to BYU and San Diego State, both Top 25 teams. They are in need of a Big 6 conference win to add to their otherwise bleak resume or could find themselves in the same situation as 2009; great record offset by a weak schedule resulting in a disappointing trip to the NIT.
God only knows what is going on at Mississippi State. Eligibility suspensions, fist fights on the bench and a fistful of questionable losses including Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee. At 8-5 the Bulldogs have likely played themselves into a deep hole to earn at at-large bid, though in a weak SEC-West they could pick up 10 or 11 wins. A win tonight, a decent conference run and all of a sudden you are looking at a 20 or 21 win team in a Power Six conference, generally a recipe for dancing...
Maniac's Picks:
Furman +13
Dayton -1.5
VCU -6.5
Hawaii +20.5
Air Force +14
There are a few more nice major conference match-ups tonight (West Virginia v. St Johns, Georgetown v. Notre Dame), but the most interesting games are taking place far from the reach of nationally televised contests. Here's a quick breakdown of some games worth visiting www.channelsurfing.net for (great links to dozens of hard-to-find games)
7:00 PM -- Furman (8-2) @ UCF (11-0)
UCF has been one of the nation's most pleasnat surprises, riding their undefeated start to #19 in the AP polls. Tonight they get a tricky potential trap game as the Paladins (nominee for oddest nickname - ANYONE know what a "Paladin" is? Email it our way) head to UCF Arena in the first game of the UCF Holiday Classic. Furman's two losses, a 4-point loss to Kent State (who is playing good ball and could win the MAC) and a 24 point drubbing to Penn State.
The Nittany Lions still have Talor Battle (I believe he is in his eleventh year of eligibility...) and beat Indiana last night in Bloomington to kick off Big Ten play. The point being, the loss may not be that bad. Furman enters fresh off a double digit win over South Carolina. The Knights better be sharp tonight or they could be susceptible to an upset.
7:00 PM -- George Mason (9-2) @ Dayton (10-3)
I have both of these teams IN in my earliest prediction bracket for the Big Dance, but both have a lot of work to do to get there. Dayton had some struggles early dropping a tough game to East Tennessee St and enduring a humiliating 68-34 loss to state rival Cincinnati. Since then, the Flyers have regrouped, winning three in a row including last night's 69-65 win at Seton Hall. The Flyers are the most athletic team in the Atlantic 10 and have the talent to unseat Temple, Xavier and Richmond as the A-10's top team.
George Mason fields their best team since their legendary Final Four run in 2006. Their two losses both came outside the continental USA in November, NC State and a final-possession loss to SoCon favorite Wofford. Since then the Patriots wins have been solid, if not spectacular. Tonight marks their first true Top 75 team challenge since Cancun. This is their last chance to pick up a much-needed resume win before entering league play in the brutal Colonial. As of now, they'd be a bubble team at best.
This is the best game of the night, in my opinion. Too bad ESPN chose to give us Duke v. UNC Greensboro and Texas-Arlington v. Kansas instead...
7:00 PM -- Wofford (5-6) @ VCU (7-4)
Wofford is easily the best 5-6 team in the country. All kidding aside, the Terriers schedule has been among the most brutal in the country with losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Air Force, Georgetown, Xavier (3 OT) and South Carolina. More important to note, none of those teams travelled to Wofford's gym. They may have little shot at an at-large bid, but without a doubt their schedule prepared them well to run through the SoCon. A win tonight would give them wins over two of the CAA's top teams (G.Mason), and could be the difference between a #14/#15 seed and a more winnable 4/13 game.
VCU on the other hand faces a much more difficult conference slate and has slipped outside of strong at-large contender range. A loss tonight would be a brutal blow to any at-large hopes the Rams might be harboring. Their win over UCLA was decent, but there is little else to write home about. They have the most athletic team in the CAA and could be a dangerous #11/#12 seed come March if they can right the ship, starting with tonight.
9:05 PM -- Hawaii (9-3) @ Utah State (11-2)
WAC play gets off to a blazing start tonight as the two top teams face off in Orem. Hawaii played surprisingly well in the Honolulu Christmas tournament, knocking off Utah and Mississippi State to claim the consolation bracket. The losses to Florida State and BYU were disspointing in margin, but not "bad losses" per se. The loss to Cal Poly would be a crippler if they find themselves in the 22-23 win range and contending for an at-large birth.
Utah State finds themselves in an all-too-familiar position; great record with little in terms of quality wins. Their losses, by 6 to BYU and at Georgetown won't hurt their profile. Beating Hawaii not only gives them a Top 100 win, it also gets them the early leg up in the WAC standings.
9:35 PM -- Air Force (8-3) @ UTEP (10-3)
Air Force is a middle of the pack team in their league, but given the sterling performance of the MWC thus far this season, being a middle-of-the packer is actually a compliment. One could say nearly the identical thing about UTEP. It's unlikely either of these teams make the NCAA Tournament, but both are solid NIT contenders. Tonight's game gives a nice comparison opportunity for the Mountain West and Conference USA.
11:00 PM -- St.Mary's (10-2) vs. Mississippi State (8-5): Game played in Las Vegas.
St Mary's is two years removed from Patty Mills and one year past Omar Samhan. Despite losing two of the best players in school history, St. Mary's is right in the mix to return to the NCAA Tourney for the second straight year and appear to be poised to snap Gonzaga's decade long stanglehold on the WCC's regular season championship. St. Mary's defeated St John's early in the year, and their only two losses are to BYU and San Diego State, both Top 25 teams. They are in need of a Big 6 conference win to add to their otherwise bleak resume or could find themselves in the same situation as 2009; great record offset by a weak schedule resulting in a disappointing trip to the NIT.
God only knows what is going on at Mississippi State. Eligibility suspensions, fist fights on the bench and a fistful of questionable losses including Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee. At 8-5 the Bulldogs have likely played themselves into a deep hole to earn at at-large bid, though in a weak SEC-West they could pick up 10 or 11 wins. A win tonight, a decent conference run and all of a sudden you are looking at a 20 or 21 win team in a Power Six conference, generally a recipe for dancing...
Maniac's Picks:
Furman +13
Dayton -1.5
VCU -6.5
Hawaii +20.5
Air Force +14
Some Madness In the Madness
I actually heard someone on the radio during my two-hour drive today (major network) insinuate that the ommission of Mississippi State is a prime example of why the tournament needs to expand.
I couldn't agree more. Let's blow up the greatest three weeks in American sports for Mississippi State. Makes prefect sense to me.
But alas there are a few teams with legit reason for some madness at being left out of the Madness (and yes, the Bulldogs are probably the foremost).
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Seth Greenberg and Virginia Tech got screwed. Granted the author of the quote is usually none other than Seth Greenberg, but this time, the Maniac will echo his sentiments. And for all those of you who say "you shouldn't have gotten blasted by Miami in the ACC tourney" I say, hold on just a quick second.
You know who else bowed out early in their conference tourney? This year's most glaring over-seed and ill-admission, the Florida Gators. Perhaps the committee owed Jeremy Foley a favor or was afraid to see a "marquee" coach's seat get quite as hot as Billy's D's en route to NIT-Three... The Hokies finished THIRD in a conference that sent SIX teams to the Dance, including Georgia Tech. Granted the Jackets made it all the way to the ACC final, but their regualr season ACC performance was 7-9. Read it again. Seven and Nine. That puts them three full games behind the Hokies in conference.
So... if conference tournaments are that important, let's put every deep advancer IN the the Dance. And that's exactly HOW it happened. Read: Minnesota. The Gophers were outclassed by Illinois all Big Ten season, but in tourney play The Gohpers beat Sparty in OT, and the Illini failed to get off a game-winning attempt in regulation, and again in OT against Ohio State. When the clock finally expired in Double OT, the Illini's season was over. Perhaps if they instead drew the depleted Boilermakers (like Minnesota) it would be Chief Illini and the ridiculous headdress this March. On a side note - Congrats Tubby.
Conference tourney's matter. The committee showed this clearly. Georgetown's deep run launched them from a 4/5 to a solid #3 and Notre Dame's Semi-Final run took them from "bubble" to six seed. Baylor's nice late tourney run landed them as the pesky #3 seed no one knows enough about and Cal's near-win against Washington landed them on safe ground as a #8.
In fact, every major conference conference finalist MADE the tourney...EXCEPT Mississippi State. To make things further perplexing, espite rolling Florida and Vandy en route to a thrilling OT loss to Kentucky (the second time they had UK flat-out BEAT this season) and finsihing with the same record (9-7) in conference, and a one-game better record overall, a last week win OVER the Gators and an RPI one spot higher... the final spot goes to???? The Gators.
Look, I get that a lot of my readers are Gator fans, and I also get that one stupid ten seed (or eleven or twelve) is not that big of a deal. My only point is, with THOSE numbers I just gave you, HOW is Florida a #10 and Missippis State is completely OUT?
By every quantifiable number the Bulldogs are equal or better. RPI, conference record, play down the stretch, quality wins, head-to-head on a neutral floor three days before the selection process, and overall record.... HMMMM. That's all I'm saying. HMMMMMM.
OK, onto my awards for the Selection Committee:
Most over-seeded teams:
1. Florida (in case you missed that point earlier)
2. Wisconsin as a #4. if the tourney were played in the Kohl Center, perhaps. I think the committee placed far too high a premium on pre-conference HOME wins over Duke and Marquette. Down the stretch, the Badgers were average at best
3. New Mexico State as a #12. A number 12 means they were a bubble team had they not earned the auto-bid by upsetting Utah State. I have no problem with Utah State as a #12, but New Mexico State?? Would they have even been in the First Ten Out had they not won? No, of course not. So HOW are they a #12 while Siena is a #13?
Under-Seeded Teams:
1. Temple as a #5. They win the A-10 Regular Season, they won the A-10 Tourney. They are 27-5 with an RPI of #9. How this team fell to a #5 behind teams like Vandy, Pitt (LOOK at their non-conference schedule, nothing of quality with losses to Texas and INDIANA), and Wisconsin is baffling to me.
2. Butler as a #5. They played a solid non-conference slate. Then they went 16-0 and won their conference tourney. The Horizon league isn't a dazzler but you can't ask for more than perfection. Last year they fell in the conference tourney and Cleveland State went out and bounced #4 Wake Forest... They also have an RPI of #12 with wins over Xavier and Ohio State...
3. BYU as a #7. Perhaps Florida will at least get their due as the over-seeded #10 to face the under-seeded #7. Let's just close our eyes and call it what it is: a 5/12 classic.
I couldn't agree more. Let's blow up the greatest three weeks in American sports for Mississippi State. Makes prefect sense to me.
But alas there are a few teams with legit reason for some madness at being left out of the Madness (and yes, the Bulldogs are probably the foremost).
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Seth Greenberg and Virginia Tech got screwed. Granted the author of the quote is usually none other than Seth Greenberg, but this time, the Maniac will echo his sentiments. And for all those of you who say "you shouldn't have gotten blasted by Miami in the ACC tourney" I say, hold on just a quick second.
You know who else bowed out early in their conference tourney? This year's most glaring over-seed and ill-admission, the Florida Gators. Perhaps the committee owed Jeremy Foley a favor or was afraid to see a "marquee" coach's seat get quite as hot as Billy's D's en route to NIT-Three... The Hokies finished THIRD in a conference that sent SIX teams to the Dance, including Georgia Tech. Granted the Jackets made it all the way to the ACC final, but their regualr season ACC performance was 7-9. Read it again. Seven and Nine. That puts them three full games behind the Hokies in conference.
So... if conference tournaments are that important, let's put every deep advancer IN the the Dance. And that's exactly HOW it happened. Read: Minnesota. The Gophers were outclassed by Illinois all Big Ten season, but in tourney play The Gohpers beat Sparty in OT, and the Illini failed to get off a game-winning attempt in regulation, and again in OT against Ohio State. When the clock finally expired in Double OT, the Illini's season was over. Perhaps if they instead drew the depleted Boilermakers (like Minnesota) it would be Chief Illini and the ridiculous headdress this March. On a side note - Congrats Tubby.
Conference tourney's matter. The committee showed this clearly. Georgetown's deep run launched them from a 4/5 to a solid #3 and Notre Dame's Semi-Final run took them from "bubble" to six seed. Baylor's nice late tourney run landed them as the pesky #3 seed no one knows enough about and Cal's near-win against Washington landed them on safe ground as a #8.
In fact, every major conference conference finalist MADE the tourney...EXCEPT Mississippi State. To make things further perplexing, espite rolling Florida and Vandy en route to a thrilling OT loss to Kentucky (the second time they had UK flat-out BEAT this season) and finsihing with the same record (9-7) in conference, and a one-game better record overall, a last week win OVER the Gators and an RPI one spot higher... the final spot goes to???? The Gators.
Look, I get that a lot of my readers are Gator fans, and I also get that one stupid ten seed (or eleven or twelve) is not that big of a deal. My only point is, with THOSE numbers I just gave you, HOW is Florida a #10 and Missippis State is completely OUT?
By every quantifiable number the Bulldogs are equal or better. RPI, conference record, play down the stretch, quality wins, head-to-head on a neutral floor three days before the selection process, and overall record.... HMMMM. That's all I'm saying. HMMMMMM.
OK, onto my awards for the Selection Committee:
Most over-seeded teams:
1. Florida (in case you missed that point earlier)
2. Wisconsin as a #4. if the tourney were played in the Kohl Center, perhaps. I think the committee placed far too high a premium on pre-conference HOME wins over Duke and Marquette. Down the stretch, the Badgers were average at best
3. New Mexico State as a #12. A number 12 means they were a bubble team had they not earned the auto-bid by upsetting Utah State. I have no problem with Utah State as a #12, but New Mexico State?? Would they have even been in the First Ten Out had they not won? No, of course not. So HOW are they a #12 while Siena is a #13?
Under-Seeded Teams:
1. Temple as a #5. They win the A-10 Regular Season, they won the A-10 Tourney. They are 27-5 with an RPI of #9. How this team fell to a #5 behind teams like Vandy, Pitt (LOOK at their non-conference schedule, nothing of quality with losses to Texas and INDIANA), and Wisconsin is baffling to me.
2. Butler as a #5. They played a solid non-conference slate. Then they went 16-0 and won their conference tourney. The Horizon league isn't a dazzler but you can't ask for more than perfection. Last year they fell in the conference tourney and Cleveland State went out and bounced #4 Wake Forest... They also have an RPI of #12 with wins over Xavier and Ohio State...
3. BYU as a #7. Perhaps Florida will at least get their due as the over-seeded #10 to face the under-seeded #7. Let's just close our eyes and call it what it is: a 5/12 classic.
Someone's MISSing the Tourney
Not only is it an underrated and fierce rivalry, tonight in Starkville we might be watching a virtual elimination game when Ole Miss travels to Mississippi State. With the middling play in the SEC West (and odd emergence of Arkansas) it is looking more and more likely that only one team from that half of the conference is going to the Big Dance.
Ole Miss's resume pre-conference is stronger; Mississippi State has already beaten the Rebels on their home floor. If Ole Miss can't return the favor tonight, they likely find themselves on precarious bubble footing.
On the left coast, if you still have any patience or remote interest at all in Pac10 basketball, you'll get a rare opportunity to watch the best they have to offer tonight on ESPN. East coast bias? Heck, they even bumped them up to 9EST for us Easterner's convenience. Say "thank you ESPN."
Cal (15-8) and Washington (16-7) both entered the season ranked in the Top 15 in the country. Not to state the obvious, but both have dissapointed immensely. Washington's non-conference profile isn't quite as brutal as the general Pac10 perception (losses to Tx Tech & G'Town, wins over Portland and Texas A&M). Cal's isn't terrible either (losses to Ohio State, Syracuse, New Mexico and Kansas, wins over Iowa State and Murray State...ok, not very good resume...). To be honest, all derision aside, Cal is likely an at-large team if the tourney was tomorrow and Washington really isn't so far gone to at least be in the discussion.
Both have played better of late, and IF the Pac10 were to sneak in two teams, Washington would have to run the table from here on out. The problem? They can't win on the road. As in, CAN'T WIN on the road. They are 0-4 in conference play and did not win (or even attempt to more than once!) a single non-conference game away from home either.
Tonight's game is at Cal...
Ole Miss's resume pre-conference is stronger; Mississippi State has already beaten the Rebels on their home floor. If Ole Miss can't return the favor tonight, they likely find themselves on precarious bubble footing.
On the left coast, if you still have any patience or remote interest at all in Pac10 basketball, you'll get a rare opportunity to watch the best they have to offer tonight on ESPN. East coast bias? Heck, they even bumped them up to 9EST for us Easterner's convenience. Say "thank you ESPN."
Cal (15-8) and Washington (16-7) both entered the season ranked in the Top 15 in the country. Not to state the obvious, but both have dissapointed immensely. Washington's non-conference profile isn't quite as brutal as the general Pac10 perception (losses to Tx Tech & G'Town, wins over Portland and Texas A&M). Cal's isn't terrible either (losses to Ohio State, Syracuse, New Mexico and Kansas, wins over Iowa State and Murray State...ok, not very good resume...). To be honest, all derision aside, Cal is likely an at-large team if the tourney was tomorrow and Washington really isn't so far gone to at least be in the discussion.
Both have played better of late, and IF the Pac10 were to sneak in two teams, Washington would have to run the table from here on out. The problem? They can't win on the road. As in, CAN'T WIN on the road. They are 0-4 in conference play and did not win (or even attempt to more than once!) a single non-conference game away from home either.
Tonight's game is at Cal...
MANIAC'S PICKS:
Ole Miss +5
Cal -5
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If the RPI Doesn't Lie...
then here is an interesting perspective on a few teams and their respective tourney prospects and seeding.
Regardless of your opinion on the the RPI rankings, it is part of the formula and logic employed by the committee come Selection Sunday. While many factors of the RPI are beyond a team's control; for example Cornell has fallen from 25th to 49th over the past two weeks due to their weakening schedule strength as they wade through Ivy League play. Nevermind the fact they are treating their league foes like the UConn Women, the RPI still drops. However, many factors are controlable, a reality not lost among saavy mid-major schedulers.
Of course it helps if your league goes out and picks up some marquee wins in the pre-conference season. The A-10 currently has six teams in the RPI's Top 50, four of them in the Top 30. Wins over teams like Villanova, Cincinnati, Florida, Louisville, Old Dominion, VCU, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Mississippi State do wonders to raise the league's overall profile. Then, once the in-league attrition begins, as long as your top teams lose only to each other, very little damage is done.
Compare this conversely with what has occurred in the Pac-10. Their pre-conference struggles were well publicized. It is reflected in the RPI. Cal is the first to appear at 26th. Washington is next at 55th, behind teams like William & Mary, Northeastern and San Diego State. Is there any wonder the A-10 is talking six bids while out west they are hoping someone other than Cal wins the tourney so they might get two?
Here's a few RPI's worth noting as we enter the final month stretch run:
RPI's that Help:
Northern Iowa (13th): Most people have the Panthers projected between a 7-9 seed. Their RPI seems to suggest otherwise. The precedent is there too; several years ago the committee awarded a two-loss Drake team a #5, despite playing a lesser schedule than No. Iowa this season.
New Mexico (10th): Think Steve Alford's Lobos have a BIG game with UNLV this week? If New Mex was to win out (unlikely) you could be looking at an unprecedentedly high seed for the Mountain West; as high as a #2. Realistically the Lobos will lose a game or two, but can still expect to fall in the top four seed lines in March.
Rhode Island (13th): I think this one is a little bit of fool's gold, buoyed slightly by their scant loss total (just three) and the strength of the A-10. They have a gang of "OK" wins, but lack the Top 25 headliner needed to crack to Top 4 seed lines. They host Richmond tomorrow night, and still have a trip to Temple to make. Their best wins are Boston College, Northeastern, Oklahoma State and Dayton. It is unlikely to expect the Rams any higher than a seven or eight unless they win out.
Richmond (30th): Staying in the A-10, many pundits have Richmond on the bubble. I say look at their quality wins and RPI. This team is a lock barring a late collapse. They have wins over Florida, Temple, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State. Their losses are ALL road losses: Wake Forest, William & Mary, VCU, South Carolina and two in conference. Their closing schedule is tough; they still have trips to URI, Xavier and Charlotte, but the Spiders are in position where they can lose two of three and still get in the Dance.
Texas Tech (32nd): This is an interesting one, as no one has the Red Raiders even on the bubble. Most have them eight or ninth in a six-bid max Big 12. So how are they so high? It would be a nearly unprecedented anomaly for a team from a power conference with an RPI of 32 to NOT recieve a bid, but Tech is a good illustration of the most significant flaw of the RPI system. They have a good record against the RPI Top 50-100 (3-0) and even better against RPI 100-200 (7-0). The problem? They are 1-7 against the Top 50, with nary a quality win outside of UTEP, Washington and Oklahoma State. Oddly enough, if Washington can get rolling and UTEP stays hot, it will be hard to exclude Tech IF (and a huge IF here, they are currently 3-5) they can get to .500 in Big 12 play.
Siena (31st): The Saints are 14-0 in MEAC play. With an RPI at 31, many a team on the bubble will be rooting for them in the MEAC Tourney. They are dancing either way. If they fall in the MEAC, they are taking one of the big boys off the bubble with them.
Wichita State (37th): The Shockers strong RPI make it possible for the Valley to sneak two teams into the Dance, but they better not leave too much to chance by leaving any more wins on the table. It really depends on how many bubble busters occur in conference tournaments, provided the Shockers can't capture their own.
Virginia (94th): The Cavs better win 11 in ACC play (possible, they are 5-3) otherwise the early losses and brutal RPI keep them on the sidelines come tourney time. None of this diminishes the job Tony Bennett is doing in Charlottesville though.
Mississippi St (70th): The SEC in general isn't getting a lot of help from the RPI. It isn't as bad as last year, but the message remains the same - if you want six or seven bids you are going to have to beat people outside of your conference. I'm not sure Mississippi State can rebound enough to make the tourney, with the SEC West so devoid of opportunities for quality wins. They better knock of Kentucky when the Cats come to Starkville.
Notre Dame (61st): Remember the column about the pathetic scheduling efforts of the Irish this year? THIS is when it comes back to bite you in the ass. With no quality wins to seperate themselves, they are forced to not just stay even with Cincinnati, UConn and Marquette; they have to finish clearly ahead of them. That might be asking a bit too much this season.
Tulsa (62nd): An RPI of 62 pretty much sinks your at-large chances, particularly when two teams from your mid-major league (UAB, UTEP) are making strong claims for bids. The Golden Hurricane get a chance to make their RPI moot with a trip to Cameron Indoor later this month.
RPI's that Really Don't Matter:
Ohio State (37th): The RPI could care less about Evan Turner's back... but the Committee will. Finish with 11 or 12 wins in the Big Ten and the Bucks will earn a Top 4 seed.
Illinois (72nd): RPI can't measure what a win in the Kohl Center is worth. The committee can. At 9-3 in Big Ten play, barring a collapse the Illini are going to the Dance. Add in wins over Clemson and Vandy, and factor in that all four non-conference losses were to Top 100 teams and by three or less points. Throw the RPI completely out the window for Illinois, they are dancing.
Regardless of your opinion on the the RPI rankings, it is part of the formula and logic employed by the committee come Selection Sunday. While many factors of the RPI are beyond a team's control; for example Cornell has fallen from 25th to 49th over the past two weeks due to their weakening schedule strength as they wade through Ivy League play. Nevermind the fact they are treating their league foes like the UConn Women, the RPI still drops. However, many factors are controlable, a reality not lost among saavy mid-major schedulers.
Of course it helps if your league goes out and picks up some marquee wins in the pre-conference season. The A-10 currently has six teams in the RPI's Top 50, four of them in the Top 30. Wins over teams like Villanova, Cincinnati, Florida, Louisville, Old Dominion, VCU, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Mississippi State do wonders to raise the league's overall profile. Then, once the in-league attrition begins, as long as your top teams lose only to each other, very little damage is done.
Compare this conversely with what has occurred in the Pac-10. Their pre-conference struggles were well publicized. It is reflected in the RPI. Cal is the first to appear at 26th. Washington is next at 55th, behind teams like William & Mary, Northeastern and San Diego State. Is there any wonder the A-10 is talking six bids while out west they are hoping someone other than Cal wins the tourney so they might get two?
Here's a few RPI's worth noting as we enter the final month stretch run:
RPI's that Help:
Northern Iowa (13th): Most people have the Panthers projected between a 7-9 seed. Their RPI seems to suggest otherwise. The precedent is there too; several years ago the committee awarded a two-loss Drake team a #5, despite playing a lesser schedule than No. Iowa this season.
New Mexico (10th): Think Steve Alford's Lobos have a BIG game with UNLV this week? If New Mex was to win out (unlikely) you could be looking at an unprecedentedly high seed for the Mountain West; as high as a #2. Realistically the Lobos will lose a game or two, but can still expect to fall in the top four seed lines in March.
Rhode Island (13th): I think this one is a little bit of fool's gold, buoyed slightly by their scant loss total (just three) and the strength of the A-10. They have a gang of "OK" wins, but lack the Top 25 headliner needed to crack to Top 4 seed lines. They host Richmond tomorrow night, and still have a trip to Temple to make. Their best wins are Boston College, Northeastern, Oklahoma State and Dayton. It is unlikely to expect the Rams any higher than a seven or eight unless they win out.
Richmond (30th): Staying in the A-10, many pundits have Richmond on the bubble. I say look at their quality wins and RPI. This team is a lock barring a late collapse. They have wins over Florida, Temple, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State. Their losses are ALL road losses: Wake Forest, William & Mary, VCU, South Carolina and two in conference. Their closing schedule is tough; they still have trips to URI, Xavier and Charlotte, but the Spiders are in position where they can lose two of three and still get in the Dance.
Texas Tech (32nd): This is an interesting one, as no one has the Red Raiders even on the bubble. Most have them eight or ninth in a six-bid max Big 12. So how are they so high? It would be a nearly unprecedented anomaly for a team from a power conference with an RPI of 32 to NOT recieve a bid, but Tech is a good illustration of the most significant flaw of the RPI system. They have a good record against the RPI Top 50-100 (3-0) and even better against RPI 100-200 (7-0). The problem? They are 1-7 against the Top 50, with nary a quality win outside of UTEP, Washington and Oklahoma State. Oddly enough, if Washington can get rolling and UTEP stays hot, it will be hard to exclude Tech IF (and a huge IF here, they are currently 3-5) they can get to .500 in Big 12 play.
Siena (31st): The Saints are 14-0 in MEAC play. With an RPI at 31, many a team on the bubble will be rooting for them in the MEAC Tourney. They are dancing either way. If they fall in the MEAC, they are taking one of the big boys off the bubble with them.
Wichita State (37th): The Shockers strong RPI make it possible for the Valley to sneak two teams into the Dance, but they better not leave too much to chance by leaving any more wins on the table. It really depends on how many bubble busters occur in conference tournaments, provided the Shockers can't capture their own.
RPI's that Hurt:
Virginia (94th): The Cavs better win 11 in ACC play (possible, they are 5-3) otherwise the early losses and brutal RPI keep them on the sidelines come tourney time. None of this diminishes the job Tony Bennett is doing in Charlottesville though.
Mississippi St (70th): The SEC in general isn't getting a lot of help from the RPI. It isn't as bad as last year, but the message remains the same - if you want six or seven bids you are going to have to beat people outside of your conference. I'm not sure Mississippi State can rebound enough to make the tourney, with the SEC West so devoid of opportunities for quality wins. They better knock of Kentucky when the Cats come to Starkville.
Notre Dame (61st): Remember the column about the pathetic scheduling efforts of the Irish this year? THIS is when it comes back to bite you in the ass. With no quality wins to seperate themselves, they are forced to not just stay even with Cincinnati, UConn and Marquette; they have to finish clearly ahead of them. That might be asking a bit too much this season.
Tulsa (62nd): An RPI of 62 pretty much sinks your at-large chances, particularly when two teams from your mid-major league (UAB, UTEP) are making strong claims for bids. The Golden Hurricane get a chance to make their RPI moot with a trip to Cameron Indoor later this month.
RPI's that Really Don't Matter:
Ohio State (37th): The RPI could care less about Evan Turner's back... but the Committee will. Finish with 11 or 12 wins in the Big Ten and the Bucks will earn a Top 4 seed.
Illinois (72nd): RPI can't measure what a win in the Kohl Center is worth. The committee can. At 9-3 in Big Ten play, barring a collapse the Illini are going to the Dance. Add in wins over Clemson and Vandy, and factor in that all four non-conference losses were to Top 100 teams and by three or less points. Throw the RPI completely out the window for Illinois, they are dancing.
Rating Saturday's Top Games
The NFL playoffs start today, and the Maniac's beloved Bengals will host our (yep, I even say "our" like it is possible I'll make a tackle tomorrow) second playoff game in twenty years. As long time tortured season tickets holders, my whole family is super psyched.
That said, there is still some fantastic college hoops worth catching early, or DVR'ing for later.
FIVE STARS:
Purdue @ Wisconsin (1:30 EST - Big Ten Network)
Hardly anyone wins at the Kohl Center other than the Badgers. They have already dispatched a fantastic Duke team there this season, next up they'll try to do the same to the Boilermakers. A win for Wisconsin puts them solidly in the mix to win the Big Ten title and lurches them into the same sentance as Purdue and Michigan State. A win for the Boilers cements them, in my mind, as the clear conference favorite and a huge step towards capturing a #1 seed in March.
FOUR STARS:
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State (4 EST - ESPN)
One of the nation's best kept secrets travels to dangerous Illinois State and perhaps the conference's best player in Osiris Eldridge. The Valley is notorious for beating each other up all season long, preventing two or three teams to seperate from the pack and bolster their at-large chances. Today is an opportunity for Northern Iowa to do just that.
Mississippi @ Mississippi State - The two best teams in the SEC West lock up in a fantastic rival that should be amplified by both teams collective talent level this season. The winner gets an early jump on winning the West.
BYU @ UTEP (9 EST) - This game is a huge feather for both in their at-large profile, though it likely means more to UTEP with BYU a pretty solid lock for March unless they really falter in conference. C-USA is much improved while constant giant Memphis is down. This is the year they might snatch multiple NCAA bids, but it will be competitive with UAB, Houston, Tulsa and Memphis all jockeying. This one is huge for the Miners.
UConn @ Georgetown (Noon, ESPN) - Hard to say this one kills the loser, but it is a good chance to see two of the countries better team; though still very flawed teams, lock horns. Both could use a solid conference win in the uber-competitive BEast. Let's be honest, any game in that conference not involving DePaul, Rutgers, Providence or USF is at least a 3-star game.
Marquette @ Villanova (2 EST) - Marquette could very easily be 3-0 in conference, ranked nationally and be enjoying the media crush that has bestowed upon Pitt this week. Instead, they find theselves in a precarious spot; lose at Nova and they fall to 1-3 and become an early "bubble" candidate...
Wake Forest @ Miami -Two teams that can actually make a claim to being "underrated" despite very good records and playing in the ACC. The winner today can make a good case for being in the Top 15 in the country and gets a valable chip for late season jockeying through the middle of the ACC pecking order.
THREE STARS:
Florida @ Vanderbilt (Noon) - Think Florida's hot start wasn't a bit of a mirage? Vegas has the Gators as seven point dogs to the 'Dores
St John's @ Louisville (Noon) - St John's better get rolling soon or it is yet another empty postseason and bottom half BEast finish.
Niagara @ Siena - Two best MEAC teams go head to head
Duke @ Georgia Tech - great litmus test for the young Jackets
Kansas State @ Missouri - great chance for Mizzou to jump on radar, great chance for Cats to show they deserve a top ten ranking
Ohio State @ Minnesota - looking forward to seeing if Evan Turner is all the way back in a tricky road stop for the Bucks.
Georgia @ Kentucky - always a good rivalry, it will be interesting to see if the Cats play with the killer instinct needed to bury a lesser opponent.
Oklahoma @ Baylor - OK Sooners, you want to stay relevant in 2010, you need to start winning soon. Today at Baylor would be a good start.
Cincinnati @ Seton Hall - Both teams fancy themselves as tourney teams in 2010. The Pirate fall to 0-4 with a loss and will be buried pretty deep. Meanwhile the Cats need the road win to stop their skid and remain at .500 in conference play.
Tulsa @ Houston - A nice chance to get out to the front of C-USA pack in the conference opener.
West Virginia @ Notre Dame - A chance for the Irish to get their first big win of the season, and boy do they really need a few to bolster that resume.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State - Something tells me that only one of the these two teams find themselves on the favorable side of the bubble in ten weeks. A head-to-head win sure never hurts.
Gonzaga @ Portland - A big chance for Portland to get back to relevant. A nice chance for Gonzaga to smack back the uprising and show the WCC who is still boss.
That said, there is still some fantastic college hoops worth catching early, or DVR'ing for later.
FIVE STARS:
Purdue @ Wisconsin (1:30 EST - Big Ten Network)
Hardly anyone wins at the Kohl Center other than the Badgers. They have already dispatched a fantastic Duke team there this season, next up they'll try to do the same to the Boilermakers. A win for Wisconsin puts them solidly in the mix to win the Big Ten title and lurches them into the same sentance as Purdue and Michigan State. A win for the Boilers cements them, in my mind, as the clear conference favorite and a huge step towards capturing a #1 seed in March.
FOUR STARS:
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State (4 EST - ESPN)
One of the nation's best kept secrets travels to dangerous Illinois State and perhaps the conference's best player in Osiris Eldridge. The Valley is notorious for beating each other up all season long, preventing two or three teams to seperate from the pack and bolster their at-large chances. Today is an opportunity for Northern Iowa to do just that.
Mississippi @ Mississippi State - The two best teams in the SEC West lock up in a fantastic rival that should be amplified by both teams collective talent level this season. The winner gets an early jump on winning the West.
BYU @ UTEP (9 EST) - This game is a huge feather for both in their at-large profile, though it likely means more to UTEP with BYU a pretty solid lock for March unless they really falter in conference. C-USA is much improved while constant giant Memphis is down. This is the year they might snatch multiple NCAA bids, but it will be competitive with UAB, Houston, Tulsa and Memphis all jockeying. This one is huge for the Miners.
UConn @ Georgetown (Noon, ESPN) - Hard to say this one kills the loser, but it is a good chance to see two of the countries better team; though still very flawed teams, lock horns. Both could use a solid conference win in the uber-competitive BEast. Let's be honest, any game in that conference not involving DePaul, Rutgers, Providence or USF is at least a 3-star game.
Marquette @ Villanova (2 EST) - Marquette could very easily be 3-0 in conference, ranked nationally and be enjoying the media crush that has bestowed upon Pitt this week. Instead, they find theselves in a precarious spot; lose at Nova and they fall to 1-3 and become an early "bubble" candidate...
Wake Forest @ Miami -Two teams that can actually make a claim to being "underrated" despite very good records and playing in the ACC. The winner today can make a good case for being in the Top 15 in the country and gets a valable chip for late season jockeying through the middle of the ACC pecking order.
THREE STARS:
Florida @ Vanderbilt (Noon) - Think Florida's hot start wasn't a bit of a mirage? Vegas has the Gators as seven point dogs to the 'Dores
St John's @ Louisville (Noon) - St John's better get rolling soon or it is yet another empty postseason and bottom half BEast finish.
Niagara @ Siena - Two best MEAC teams go head to head
Duke @ Georgia Tech - great litmus test for the young Jackets
Kansas State @ Missouri - great chance for Mizzou to jump on radar, great chance for Cats to show they deserve a top ten ranking
Ohio State @ Minnesota - looking forward to seeing if Evan Turner is all the way back in a tricky road stop for the Bucks.
Georgia @ Kentucky - always a good rivalry, it will be interesting to see if the Cats play with the killer instinct needed to bury a lesser opponent.
Oklahoma @ Baylor - OK Sooners, you want to stay relevant in 2010, you need to start winning soon. Today at Baylor would be a good start.
Cincinnati @ Seton Hall - Both teams fancy themselves as tourney teams in 2010. The Pirate fall to 0-4 with a loss and will be buried pretty deep. Meanwhile the Cats need the road win to stop their skid and remain at .500 in conference play.
Tulsa @ Houston - A nice chance to get out to the front of C-USA pack in the conference opener.
West Virginia @ Notre Dame - A chance for the Irish to get their first big win of the season, and boy do they really need a few to bolster that resume.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State - Something tells me that only one of the these two teams find themselves on the favorable side of the bubble in ten weeks. A head-to-head win sure never hurts.
Gonzaga @ Portland - A big chance for Portland to get back to relevant. A nice chance for Gonzaga to smack back the uprising and show the WCC who is still boss.
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Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com
Beast Roars Back - UC, Lousiville Capture Big East Wins
Cincinnati dispatched easily of Mississippi St in the opener, and Louisville made for an unwelcome return to the Queen City for former Bearcat interim-coach Andy Kennedy and Ole Miss. Or was that his cab driver! Rimshot!
Taxi!! Taxi!!!!
Louisville walked away with a quality win, but looked like a far cry to be a potential challenger to the North Carolina throne of greatness. Defensively, the Cards were typically tough, holding Mississippi star Chris Warren to 5-20 shooting (and .319 as a team). However the Cards also shot under 40% from the floor in a game that was..ehm, "less than aesthetically pleasing."
With the pair of wins, the Big East and SEC split the inaugural Challenge.
Taxi!! Taxi!!!!Louisville walked away with a quality win, but looked like a far cry to be a potential challenger to the North Carolina throne of greatness. Defensively, the Cards were typically tough, holding Mississippi star Chris Warren to 5-20 shooting (and .319 as a team). However the Cards also shot under 40% from the floor in a game that was..ehm, "less than aesthetically pleasing."
With the pair of wins, the Big East and SEC split the inaugural Challenge.
Maniac's Thursday Picks
A great night for college hoops - Tyler Hansbrough will likely become the leading scorer in the vaunted history of North Carolina basketball. While the matchup against Evansville isn't a likely competitive game, it will be a nice celebration of what is great about college basketball.
In other games, Cincinnati and Louisville will host a pair of Mississippi foes in the Queen City in the second half of the Big East - SEC Challenge.
Maniac's Picks:
Mississippi St @ Cincinnati -5
Evansville +30 @ North Carolina
Mississippi +16 @ Louisville (game in Cincinnati)
In other games, Cincinnati and Louisville will host a pair of Mississippi foes in the Queen City in the second half of the Big East - SEC Challenge.
Maniac's Picks:
Mississippi St @ Cincinnati -5
Evansville +30 @ North Carolina
Mississippi +16 @ Louisville (game in Cincinnati)
We Should be shaking YOUR hand. It's been a treat.
Another Miss
Score of the night:
Charlotte 70 @ Miss St. 64
With the win Charlotte pushes their record to 3-6. A quick look at some of their other "gems":
The losses keep piling up, someone needs to say it. The SEC could (should) be a 1 or 2 bid league at this point. They will still get 3 or 4, but how is 9-7 in the SEC any more impressive than 9-7 in the A-10 or Mountain West??
Charlotte 70 @ Miss St. 64
With the win Charlotte pushes their record to 3-6. A quick look at some of their other "gems":
| Sun, Nov 16 | Old Dominion | L 68-69 | ||||
| Wed, Nov 19 | at Appalachian St. | L 84-87 | ||||
| Sat, Nov 22 | Clemson | L 70-71 | ||||
| Thu, Nov 27 | (14) Arizona St. | L 56-84 | ||||
| Fri, Nov 28 | Providence | L 62-67 | ||||
| Sun, Nov 30 | at CSU Fullerton | L 84-92 |
The losses keep piling up, someone needs to say it. The SEC could (should) be a 1 or 2 bid league at this point. They will still get 3 or 4, but how is 9-7 in the SEC any more impressive than 9-7 in the A-10 or Mountain West??
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