Bracketeering - November Pre-Thanksgiving Turkey Shoot

There is something exhilarating about the Thanksgiving edition of Bracketeering each season.  The season is young enough that imense room for speculation still prevails, however there have been just enough small slivers of hoops action against semi-reasonable competition that complete disdain for the pollsters is already allowable.

It is with that smug spirit of contrarianism that we shall embark on the season innagural edition of Bracketeering!  As always, comments, feedback and profanity-laced anatomically-challenging emails and posts are thoroughly enjoyed and welcomed...

FINAL FOUR:

#1 Kentucky - I'll spare you the email; YES, I was the guy who joked "time to start writing the 'Final Four Banners taken DOWN from the Rafters' story" within minutes of Coach Cal's hiring.  Well, so far he has proven me half correct; there is a Final Four banner in the rafters.  And in my opinion, it's likely another will be joining it this season.  As far as the "taking it down" part, there is no evidence to suggest Calipari has made even the slightest errant step in Lexington.  However, for those of you who were history majors in college...you know what they say about its repetition...

Anyhow - This is easily my favorite Kentucky team since Tubby Smith was in the Bluegrass.  The Gilespie Era was an abject trainwreck.  The John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins team was too erratic and immature (and frankly, just not a likeable mesh of players), and last year's Final Four team was nearly as ugly, and not nearly a Final Four caliber team most of the season aside from the final two weekends.  This team is different than the past two editions of isolation and dribble drive, force up shots and buy time until the NBA Draft rolls around Kentucky basketball.   Marquis Teague is a similarly top-ranked prep point guard, but he is more in the distributor mode than either John Wall or Brandin Knight.  Terrance Jones is a year more seasoned and provides a legitimate first-team All-American swing/power forward with some ferocity, and Doron Lamb is the team's most reliable shooter and scorer from the perimter.

The real difference maker, and where I give them the slight edge over North Carolina is the addition of freshman Anthony Davis.  Watching his fourteen point, seven block domination over Kansas, I couldn't help but make the extrapolation that he is going to give Zeller and Henson absolute fits.  Terrance Jones should be a decent defensive match on Barnes, and from 1 to 8, Kentucky actually has a slight athleticism advantage of the uber-athletic Heels.

The nice thing is, this will get settled on the court in less than ten days. Until then, give me the Cats in the top slot.

#2 North Carolina - They are everyone's #1 for a reason.  They are absolutely loaded.  Barnes returned after a slow-starting, but quietly spectacular freshman season and should vie with Jared Sullinger for national player of the year honors in 2012.  The inside duo of Henson and Zeller are as talented as any frontcourt in the nation (though I am not sold on their interior defensive presence; yes Henson is a good shot blocker, but is he really going to body a Jared Sullinger out of the lane??), and Marshall Strickland is a fantastic distributor who looks up the floor better than any collegiate guard in the country.

When looking at a team than is going to struggle to find minutes for McDonald's All-American freshman James McAdoo because of the dearth of talent, identifying flaws is obviously a nit-picking venture.  However, nitpick I shall... this is not a perfect team in the mold of the two national championship teams in the Roy Williams era.  Zeller has developed some pretty moves, but is nowhere near the reliable 'dump it in the post every time down the floor' scoring option that Tyler Hansbrough was.  I'd grade him significantly behind Sean May in that regard as well.  This team is also devoid of a defensive wing stopper in the mold of a Danny Green or Raymond Felton.  And the outside shooting of the 2011-2012 Heels??  Let's just say they'd be wise to keep it up tempo and run run run.

This sounds like we're down on the Heels.  Not true.  In fact, to have this team anywhere outside of the Top Three is being contrarian for the sake of being obnoxious.  And at MarchManiacs, we are obnoxious for completely independent reasons.  UNC is fantastically talented, and I'm not sure either national championship team had a player with the beautiful slashing and mid-range game of Harrison Barnes.  He has the ability to elevate this team from "fantastic" to "transcendent." 

However, as stated above, until next weekend I'm cautiously parking the Heels just behind Coach Cal's Big Blue.

#3 Duke - Every flaw you could find about North Carolina?  Flip them when discussing the Blue Devils.  Duke has plenty of size and toughness inside.  But no one even close to the feathery touch and deft post moves of Tyler Zeller.  North Carolina has the consummate distributor and playmaker at point guard.  Duke, in very un-Duke like fashion, has a makeshift point guard committee, with the primary ballhandling responsibilities falling to sharp shooter Seth Curry.

And perimeter shooting?  Not an issue for the Dukies.  Although Austin Rivers's shot selection still leaves a bit to be desired (more on that later), shooting from behind the arc is something this team will do as well as any team in the nation.  Curry and Andre' Dawkins can flat-out knock it down.  Rivers is potentially deadly albeit streaky, and no 6'11' player in the country shoots as well from distance as Duke's Brian Kelly.

In fact, Kelly is the primary reason I elevated the Blue Devils to #3.  Through three weeks, no player in the country has shown more improvement from last season than Kelly.  His ability to put the ball on the floor as well as spot up from three-point range makes him an incredibly versatile and difficult to defend weapon.  His shooting ability prevents teams from shading help to the corners to help on perimeter shooters, and balances the relatively limited ability of the Plumlee boys from anywhere beyond three feet of the rim (especially the foul line... bletch!).  This also allows for Mason and Miles to do what they do best; rebound.  Having a 6'11'' guy pulling a big away from the rim creates fantastic put-back jam opportunities, which they have each capitalized on several times this season in big moments.

The danger for Duke lies in the early tendency of freshman Austin Rivers to take about four or five ridiculous shots per game.  So far, Coach K has seemed surprisingly patient with the frosh's shot selection, and his teammates have been typically plucky Duke supporters, clapping and cheering their teammate on.  But at some point, in a big moment or as a tight tough game starts to slip away, you have to wonder if some of the frustration and tension might surface.  So far, so good... but when it does become a story in a month or two, remember you read it at MarchManiacs.com back before Thanksgiving...

#4 Ohio State -  I'll be the first to caution giddy Buckeye fans not to overlook the impact of the loss of defensive wizard David Lighty and his tremendous contribution in the "little things" department.  However when likely Top 3 NBA Draft pick (if not #1 overall) Jared Sullinger surprises everyone and decides to return for his sophomore season, a little exuberance is to be tolerated.

And even though the school's alltime leader in 3-pointers made, Jon Diebler and sixth man tough-guy Dallas Lauderdale have also graduated, don't weep to openly for Coach Matta.  The cupboard is far from bare in Columbus.  Look for senior William Buford to fill in some of the scoring gaps (he was the team's unheralded second-leading scorer in 2011) and for Aaron Craft to continue to blossom in his sophomore season, evolving nicely into a gritty floor leader in the Chris Kramer+Jordan Taylor mold (to blend two Big Ten guards into a nice visual package for you).

6'7'' swingman Deshaun Thomas is a burgeoning star waiting to explode on to the scene for the Buckeyes, and while he won't make anyone forget David Lighty, he will certainly make the loss much less painful.

I have the Buckeyes in my Final Four, but a clear peg behind North Carolina and Kentucky.  However, come March, I'm not sure they won't be that team that everyone takes a liking to as the #1 seed to pick for people shying away from the wire-to-wire darlings in Chapel Hill and Lexington.

Elite Eight:

We will dig in to each of these ballclubs in further detail in the not-so-distant future, but for brevity sake (I think this column is pushing 2000 words...) let's list 'em out quickly...

#5 - UConn - This year's team might actually be better than last year's surprising national champs.  Jeremy Lamb is a legitimate National POY candidate.

#6 - Missouri - Their breakneck tempo and outstanding backcourt of Denmon and English could be the class of the Big 12.

#7 - Wisconsin - Granted, they haven't been sternly tested yet, but holding teams to under 38 ppg is an impressive defensive effort, even for a Bo Ryan coached squad.  Add in the best point guard (when factoring in both ends of the court) in the country in Jordan Taylor, and you have a pretty good recipe for success.

#8 - Syracuse - Some questions remain on the perimeter, but Boeheim has yet another talented squad in Syracuse.  Hopefully the allegations swirling around their longtime assistant coach prove meritless... for the sake of not just the alleged victims but college basketball fans everywhere.

Sweet and Lurking:

#9 - Louisville - Can Kyle Couric lead this team to the top of the Big East?  The Card fan favorite has been excellent in the early season, but Pitino and crew will need some solid play from their big guys if they want to hang with UConn and Syracuse in the Big East.

#10 - Baylor - The most talented team in the Big 12, but I don't recall seeing them in the NCAA tourney last year, do you??

#11 - Alabama - Maybe Purdue is just worse than I thought, but watching Anthony Grant's team get after the Boilermakers defensively was impressive.  I'd be stunned if this team is left out of the Big Dance again in 2012.

#12 - Florida - It's hard to hold a loss to Ohio State against them too badly.  I am still not in love with their smallish backcourt, but the emergence of freshman Brad Beal will infuse a much-needed big time scorer jolt into that lineup.

#13 - Xavier - Tu Holloway is a true big time lead guard, cut from the mold of a Kemba Walker.  Coach Mack hopes he can generate a similar result.  Xavier plays a spectacular out-of-conference schedule that includes Gonzaga, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Memphis and Cincinnati (not to mention Long Beach State, who could prove a dangerous trap game), so we will get to find out pretty quickly just how legit the beast of the A-10 is as a Final Four contender in 2012.

#14 - Gonzaga - Elias Harris and Robert Sacre give the Zags one of the better veteran tandems in the country.  Is 6'1'' freshman Kevin Pangos going to be able to continue to light it up from the outside to the tune of 18+ a night?

#15 - Vanderbilt - Yes, I know.  They lost at home to Cleveland State.  It was a bad loss.  However, this is still one of the better teams in the country, especially once they get Festus Azili back from his six-game NCAA-imposed suspension.  John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor combine for one of the best backcourt running mates in the country.  The Commodores early season play doesn't earn them a Top 16 slot; even that 2-point win last night over Oregon State was sketchy... but I am still going to stick with Vandy and hope to be rewarded come February and March...

#16 - St. Louis - I always like to take a flyer on someone at the sixteenth slot, so let's really go for it to kick off the season.  The Billikens beat the nonsense out of both Southern Illinois and Washington already this season, and have a legit chance to win their Thanksgiving tournament that tips off tomorrow against Boston College.  Xavier is the class of the A10, and Temple has the bigger name, but don't be surprised is Saint Louis is ranked by season's end and a lock for an NCAA Tourney appearance.

February 9th National Roundup

So many teams, so few spots..

It's the time of year where there are about ten good games being played for every one you can actually sit down and watch.  Such is life in February for us college hoop die-hards, especially this year with the ubiquitous "soft-bubble."

Some of you might recall one of the first columns of the season talking about the relative lack of  strength nationwide.  It wasn't an early season exageration, I turned out to be exactly right.  However don't confuse "down year" with "boring year."  If anything, this year's final four week scramble might be the most entertaining pre-tourney finish we have seen in years.

Here's a quick rundown of the day's more important results.  A seperate series of columns will be devoted to specifically addressing each team's at-large chances.

Big East:

Georgetown, whom the Maniac liked as the best team in the conference heading into conference play has finally begun to reward our confidence after it looked tragically misplaced during the Hoyas 1-3 start in conference play.  Tonight they captured their fifth straight BEast win, taking down Syracuse in the Carrier Dome for the first time in eight years.  The win should escalate Georgetown back into the Top Ten and still in play for a #1 (but more likely a #2) seed.

Louisville has been the most pleasant surprise in the conference, and possibly in the entire country.  It was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and possibly even a NIT season.  However, Preston Knowles and the Cards have been fantastic.  It looked like they were on the verge of capturing yet another enormous conference win at Notre Dame tonight, until surprise BEast Player of the Year candidate Ben Hansbrough took over.  The senior standout helped the Irish force overtime, then spearheaded a 10-0 run to start the extra frame as Notre Dame walked away with a huge win.  The Irish, projected as a bubble team at best preseason are now a solid candidate for a #1 seed (though like G'Town, likely a #2 or #3) and have emerged as a nice darkhorse Final Four contender.

Marquette is nothing if not exciting.  Perhaps no team this season has lost more heartbreaking games to elite teams than the Warriors.  Tonight, in a game they should have won easily, they again showed their affinity for heart-pounders.  After trailing for most of the game, the Warriors eeked out a 59-58 win at South Florida, and more importantly kept the at-large tourney hopes afloat.  They are by no means safely in, but a loss to cellar-dweller USF would have been a crippling blow to their chances.

Meanwhile Villanova helped prove that ANY road game is a tough game in the nation's power conferences, dropping a 77-76 game at Rutgers that could come back to haunt them in their pursuit of a Top 2 seed in March.

Big Ten:

Ohio State has been the big story of 2011 as the nation's lone unbeaten team for more than two weeks now.  However, everyone else in the Big Ten has looked at times tourney-worthy (with the exception of perhaps Iowa and Indiana), and at other times simply terrible.

That rocky road continued tonight as Wisconsin had to fight for their lives to force overtime and eventually squeak out a 62-59 win over lowly Iowa. 

Michigan continued their recent solid play with a relatively easy 75-66 home win over Northwestern.  It is likely too late for Michigan to earn an at-large bid, barring a remarkable finish to the season, but the win tonight did officially put to rest any aspirations Northwestern might have held of snapping their lifetime streak of missing the NCAA Tourney.  Michigan moved to 15-10 (5-7) with the win, while Northwestern fell to 14-9 (4-8), making even an NIT bid look ambitious at this point.

Tomorrow has two more interesting and do-or-die Big Ten games when Penn State travels to reeling Michigan State and Illinois travels to Minnesota for a game that looks more and more like one that could vault the winner to the Tourney and the loser to the NIT.

Conference USA:

It may not happen, but I still contend this is a multiple-bid league, possibly as many as three bid merited even.  Memphis dodged an enormous bullet tonight in Orlando when Antonio Barton hit a three pointer on a pass delivered from his Conference USA freshman-of-the-year brother Will, with two seconds remaining to clip UCF 63-62.  The win keeps Memphis's bubble hopes strong, while for UCF any semblance of optimism from their 14-0 start have fully evaporated with their still-going eight game losing streak.

Meanwhile UAB passed their bubble-test with ease, handling their business with a 64-48 win at Marshall.  The win moved UAB to 17-6 (7-3) and should improve their already Top 40 RPI.  It was a good win for the Blazers, even it isn't an eye-popping one.  Marshall has already beaten West Virginia and Memphis this season.

SEC:

Florida ended any remote chances South Carolina might have been clinging to with their 79-60 win in Colombia.  The Gators moved to 19-5 (8-2) and are looking more and more like a Top 4 seed come tourney time.

Last night was a more action-packed evening for the conference, with Bruce Pearl's return spoiled with a 73-61 loss to Kentucky at Rupp Arena.  Tennessee might be the most difficult team in the field of 68 to seed (assuming they even make the tourney), as their record merits a low seed, but their stunning quality of victories (Villanova, Pitt, VCU, Missouri State, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Memphis) reads more like a #5 or #6 seed at worst.  However at just 15-9 (5-4) the Vols would be wise to avoid many losses in the final few weeks of the season.

Georgia is also a bubble-team, though they lack some of the huge resume wins of their counterpart in Knoxville.  They let a golden opportunity slip away last night, losing to Xavier 65-57 on their home floor.

Saturday is a huge day in the SEC, as Kentucky travels to Vanderbilt, and the Gators host the desperate Tennessee Volunteers.

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Kemba Unable to "Jimmer" the Cardinals; UConn Loses at Home in Double OT

Kemba Walker had chances to beat Louisville at the buzzer in both regulation and the second overtime.  Both times, like his likely Player of the Year chances, he came up just a little short.

Walker struggled to get clean looks at the bucket most of the afternoon and finished with a respectable, but not impressive, twenty points.  UConn's problem wasn't just that Walker was struggling - it was that even though struggling the offense was nearly 100% on his shoulders.  Walker shot just 7 of 24 from the field, including a dismal 2 of 10 from three point range.

This isn't an article to gloat (though I have written multiple times more than a month ago that this was the inevitable destiny for the Huskies unless they develop another offensive option...), simply to point out that the Big East is completely and bizarrely random this season.  Anyone who thinks they can predict the final standings of this league, feel free to speak up...

Pitino's Cards are once again lookin' good.

Louisville moves into second place in the BEast with the road win over #5 UConn.  For much of the season writers, pollsters, and yours truly doubted the veracity of the Cards record - waiting for the plummet once the competition heated up.  It turns out Preston Knowles, Peyton Siva and Rick Pitino are instead up to the normal Louisville standard and are not just an NCAA Tourney lock, they are right in the mix for a Top 4 seed.

The same can be said for about half of the Big East.  Georgetown picked up a HUGE road win today at Villanova (and hosts Louisville Monday night!), and Marquette has a double digit lead on Syracuse early in the second half.

It is truly anybody's conference to win and luckily for us hoops fans, it is going to be an absolutely thrilling and frenetic final five weeks of conference play.

UP NEXT:

LOUISVILLE:   @Georgetown, DePaul, @Notre Dame, Syracuse

UCONN:  Syracuse, @Seton Hall, @St John's, Providence

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Cards Show Heart in Thrillilng Comeback

Rick Pitino has won hundreds of games in his career.

I'm not sure he's had many more thrilling than today's miracle home win over Marquette.  Louisville trailed by 17 with less than five minutes to play, when all of a sudden Marquette went cold, Preston Knowles caught fire, and the crowd became electric.

Knowles had a lot to celebrate in the final 4:53

The Cards finished the game on a 26-8 run over the final five minutes, punctuated with the go-ahead layup with four seconds to play, when Preston Knowles found Kyle Kuric under the bucket for the uncontested score.

Marquette had a shot at the buzzer, but when Jimmy Butler's shot caught front iron, the Cardinals miracle comeback was complete.

Not only is it a thrilling win, it is likely an important one as well.  Marquette and Louisville, along with Cincinnati, St. Johns and possibly Notre Dame, could all find themselves in a bottle neck in the middle of the BEast standings, with only one or two likely to get the tourney nod.  The Cards snatched a valuable chip at the last possible moment today.  Time will tell if it was the one they needed to get into the Dance.
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Separation Wednesday in the BEast

Yesterday we talked about the great opportunity tonight - for completely different reasons - awaiting about a dozen Big East teams.  The scheduling Gods smiled on hoops fans, and laid out intriguing matchups all across the mega conference, giving us a chance to really begin to make some sense of who belongs where in the BEast.

Some made the most of it, and others had a night they'd soon forget.

It's definitely the latter for St. John's and Georgetown.

Tonight in the Garden the Johnnies had a chance to earn some respect around the neighborhood with a win over visiting Syracuse.  Instead, it was the Orange crushing the Red Storm, embarrassing St. Johns 76-59.  While the loss is disappointing for Lavin and the Red Storm, it is equally impressive for the 'Cuse.  At this point, it might be wise to heed Bobby Knight's advice and start lumping Syracuse in with Duke, Ohio State and Kansas when mentioning the nation's elite teams.

Speaking of elite teams, Pitt, as is becoming customary under Jamie Dixon, deserves to be on the short list as well.  Tonight's trip to Georgetown was much, much more important for Georgetown, yet the Hoyas fell to a stunning 1-4 in Big East play after being comfortably outplayed all night by the Panthers.  I've written it before but it merits repeating - this season is getting eerily reminiscent of two seasons past's Top10-turned NIT flop disaster.  And just like two years ago, heck, really last year's embarrassing opening round loss to #14 seed Ohio U as well), with the talent on John Thompson's roster, there's simply no excuse.

In the last real separation game tonight Louisville visited Villanova in an attempt to validate the national ranking many have questioned due to the relative lack of schedule strength thus far for the Cards.  It didn't work out quite as well as Pitino might have hoped.

Jay Wright, who along with Jamie Dixon, has to be one of the most criminally underrated coaches in the nation, is at it again this year, despite not having what many would consider to be a "star-studded" line-up.  In fact, had Bruce Pearl's suspension taken place earlier it's possible both Nova AND Pitt would be on the list of undefeated squads.

Tonight showed clearly what I have long suspected in regards to the Big East.  With the exception of Georgetown whom I was clearly over-enamored with, the league is beginning to settle into four quadrants.

TIER ONE:  Nationally Elite

Syracuse, Pitt, Villanova

TIER TWO: Likely Tourney Teams

UConn, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette

TIER THREE:  Tourney Caliber - Bubble Teams

Cincinnati (I know, 16-1, start emailing me hate mail before it's too late...), St. John's, West Virginia

TIER FOUR:  Not Tourney Teams

Seton Hall, Rutgers, USF, Providence

And DePAUL.  (seriously, can we just boot Providence and DePaul already and bring in TCU and UCF?).

MANIAC'S PICK:  The Maniac's gut feel - the BEast gets eight teams in the Dance, with Louisville, Cincinnati and St. John's clawing for the final spot of the eight.  Right now, due to sheer number of wins I'd wager Cincinnati saves Mick Cronin's job for another year.

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Games to Watch - Saturday December 11th

For those of you who have the college football "in-between blues," that odd period where teams dangle in limbo for two to five weeks waiting for their bowl games...all of which mean absolutely NOTHING save for one, saddle up for a fantastic day of college hoops that will bring it from noon until well after midnight.


Here's a quick overview of a few games worth catching or at least DVR'ing.

12:00 PM:  UNLV @ Louisville - Both teams are off to flying starts, undefeated and already possessing a few quality wins.  Tomorrow is a great opportunity to find out if Louisville's fast start is an indication they can compete in the loaded Big East and also an opportunity for the left half of the country to get a chance to see a very good UNLV team play.  UNLV has had the Cards number, beating them in each of the past two seasons (Louisville teams that were better, at least on paper, than this year's squad.)

This might actually be the best game of the day, a great way to kick of some hoops watching before lunchtime.  For the UNLV kids, it will be like playing a game at 9AM with the time change.  That's tough to do, and I think they'll come out a little flat and jet lagged.  Give me the Cards laying 3.5

2:30 PM:  Wisconsin @ Marquette - This game has quietly become one of the better rivalry games in the country over the past few seasons.  Both teams have a strong similarity in that it seems every season they are picked somewhere near the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, and sure enough, every year they exceed expectations and head to the Tournament. 

This year looks to be playing out exactly the same way.  Both teams enter at 7-2, with their losses coming against ranked foes and in close games.  Both have a few quality wins under their belt but can desperatly use another one before tackling conference play in the two toughest conferences in the nation.

Marquette will have the valuable home crowd advantage but I have a feeling Wisconsin has a touch more discipline and a little more cohesion and poise at this early juncture in the season.  Gimme the Badgers +1.

3:15 PM:  Tennessee @ Pitt - The Vols have been one of the season's pleasant surprises.  Tomorrow will be one of Pearl's last games on the sidelines before his oddly-arranged SEC-only eight game suspension takes effect.  Both teams are athletic and very physically tough.  I like Pitt at home in a really good ball game but nine points is a lot to lay considering this will likely be a game in the fifties or sixties.  I'll take the Vols and the +9.

4:00 PM:  Kansas State @ Loyola (IL) -  Odd line of the day.  not sure how K-State is laying only 8.5.  Gimme the Wildcats in a 20+ point romp.

4:00 PM:  Dayton @ Old Dominion -  The Flyers are reeling, despite their 7-2 record.  However, this is a talented and experienced club that should turn the corner soon.  Old Dominion continues their aggressive schedule with yet another hopeful tourney team.  I think the Monarchs win at home, but I'll take the Flyers +10.5

4:30 PM:  Washington @ Texas A&M - Texas A&M can land a clear blow for the Big 12 versus the Pac 10 with a win today at home.  Texas A&M is off to a good start at 8-1, however their only win of note came over Temple.  Washington has been carrying the banner as the only ranked team in the Pac 10, but it's hard to put A&M any better than sixth in the loaded Big 12.  I'm not sure if Washington feels any pressure to prop up their sagging conference, but a loss today is actually pretty damaging to league's overall profile.  I'll take Washington on the road, minus one and a half.

5:15 PM:  Indiana @ Kentucky - One of my favorite rivalries takes place today, and though much of the shine has faded over the past decade with neither school managing to be good at coinciding times, it still means a ton to their respective fan bases.  Indiana is in year three of the Tom Crean Era, and call me a hater, but it doesn't seem any real progress has been made.  Meanwhile in the Bluegrass it took Calipari all of half a day to bring the 'Cats from "NIT" to "Final Four" caliber. 

There's still a pretty big hill to climb in Bloomington, and I don't think today will be a step in that direction.  Give me Big Blue laying the thirteen points.

6:00 PM:  Arizona @ BYU - Sean Miller's Cats seem to be on the right track to erasing the memory of last year's rare tourney absence.  It had been nearly thirty years since the Cats were left out, and I'm sure Miller would like to put another thirty years distance in the rear view mirror.  A win today in Provo would go a long way.  I think they'll get it.  Gimme Arizona +2.5

7:00 PM:  Virginia Commonwealth @ Richmond - The sneaky gem in today's bursting schedule is this top-tier matchup between the CAA and the A-10.  Both schools have designs on playing in March, however neither league is notorious for collecting armloads of at-large bids.  Both schools could really use the chip today's win would provide. 

VCU's two losses are quality; Tennessee and to lesser extent, South Florida.  They also boast quality wins over UCLA and Wake Forest.  Richmond's losses are a little less solid; Old Dominion and Iona, however their wins are better; particularly the win over Purdue.

This should be a really good game, likely close, so I'll take VCU +8

8:30 PM:  Gonzaga @ Notre Dame -  The Zags are really struggling, and at 4-4 can ill-afford many more losses if they plan to continue their decade-long NCAA Tournament streak.  Notre Dame was one of the season's early surprises until Kentucky took some of their shine Wednesday night.  The line on this one is huge at 10.5, a number I think reflects a lack of confidence in Gonzaga rather than a ton of faith in the Irish.  I'm not so sure that either is warranted.  Give me Gonzaga and the points, and don't be surprised if they clip them straight up.

Maniac's Picks: Louisville -3.5, Wisconsin +1, Tennessee +9, Kansas State -8.5, Dayton +10.5, Washington -1.5, Kentucky -13, Arizona +2.5, VCU +8, Gonzaga -10.5

Big East Bubble Talk

Here's a quick outlook on what it is going to take to get in for the Big East's crowded bubble.

Pitt (18-6, 7-4):  It is probably disingenuous to place Pitt on the "bubble" list.  They are not on the bubble.  But they could be soon.

I place them here simply to illustrate they are not quite a 100% lock yet.  Their non-conference play gives them a win over Wichita State balanced by a loss to Indiana.  So basically their non-conference is every bit as barren as Louisville and Notre Dame's ballyhooed blank slates.  Their next four games are: WVU, @Marquette, Villanova, @ Notre Dame.  It isn't unfathomable they lose all four of those games.  IF they do, they are on a precarious bubble.  The should win the two final games hosting Providence and Rutgers.  I'm not suggesting they won't; just saying they might need to.

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 80%

Louisville (15-9, 6-5):  Can you say BRUTAL?  That's the only word to describe tonight's double digit loss to St. John's.  They sport losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte (both at home).  Their best non-conference win is Arkansas back when they had eight players in November (they also have losses to UNLV and Kentucky).

Down the stretch, with the exception of DePaul their other six games provide opportunities for quality wins; Syracuse twice, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette and UConn.  The god news is they get the first three in Freedom Hall.  The bad news?  What about the Cards effort tonight says they can win any of those big games?  Especially when they likely need to win three of those six (an of course DePaul).
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Maniac's Tourney Odds: 50%

Notre Dame (17-8, 6-6):  Same story as the first three, terrible non-conference with NO quality wins and two losses to Northwestern and Loyola Marymount.  Their final six games are: ST. John's, @Louisville, @Georgetown, Pitt, UConn, @Marquette.

On the bright side Brian Kelley will unveil his inagural squad at Spring Practice in just a few weeks..

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 10%

Marquette (15-8, 6-5):  I find Marquette to be the most interesting case in the board.  They are a few buckets away from being in the lock category.  That said, their RPI is in the 60's and they have some significant work to get in the Dance.  I think they have a good shot.  They finish with: USF, Louisville, Pitt and ND at home, and trips to Cincy, St. John's and Seton Hall.  None of those seven are gimmes, none are impossible, or even unlikely.  I think they go 4-3 down the stretch, get to 10-8 and ride non-conference wins over Xavier and Michigan (who was playing well at the time), as well as the positive sentiment of losses by TWO OR LESS to: Villanova TWICE, Florida State, and West Virginia to a solid #10 seed.

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 60%


South Florida (15-8, 5-6):  Who'da thunk we'd have them on the list ahead of UConn??  It's an uphill battle for the Bulls, but they have a real shot.  Once Gilchrist comes back, he and Dominique Jones give them a 1-2 punch better than any team in the league outside of the Big Four.  They close with home games against St John's, Cincinnati, Providence and UConn.  They travel to Marquette, Villanova and DePaul.  Realistically, if they win three of four at home, and just beat DePaul on the road they get to .500 in conference.  They will have a road win over Georgetown (something Villanova and Duke looked pathetic attempting) as well as anon-conference win over Virginia.

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 40%

In all probability they need to either sweep the four home games, or steal a win at Nova or Marquette to feel safe, but I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility.  This team is honestly in the mix for most talented team on this entire list.  No joke.

Cincinnati (14-9, 5-6):  What happened here?  The tourney seemed a lock after finishing non-conference play with a should-have-won against Gonzaga to go with wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland and a thrilling win over UConn to open conference play... it looked so promising.

Now?  It looks really, really bad.  The Bearcats have a tough road to sled, as they close with: @WVU, Villanova, @Georgetown.  Ouch.  That looks like three losses to me.  That makes them no better than .500 in league play and gives them 12 losses overall.  Before that stretch they still head to UConn and to South Florida.

It looks like kNITting, and probably the classifieds for Mick Cronin.

Maniac's Tourney Odds: .0004%

Connecticut (14-10, 4-7):  Oh how different thing look if only they scraped out that win at Syracuse last night.  Too bad the committee doesn't look at almosts, nor do they look at dubious officiating.  They look at W's and L's.  And the Huskies have a lot of L's.  Even the win over Texas seems to devalue with each game the Longhorns play.

As the Longhorns fade, the Huskies become an increasing long-shot.  Their out-of-league play gives them the nod over this entire list if they are all even in Big East play.  But at 4-7, they really need to go at least 5-2 to have a prayer heading into MSG and the conference tourney.

Here's the final seven:  Home: Cincinnati, Louisville, WVU  -- Road: Villanova, Rutgers, Notre Dame, South Florida.

Wouldn't it be a hoot if they are both at .500 shouting range going into the final game at the Sun Dome in Tampa??

Maniac's Tourney Odds: 25%

The good news, these teams ALL play each other a ton the final three weeks.  I think the Big East gets seven bids in the end.  Give me Pitt, Marquette and South Florida in a stunner (though if it is six, USF just misses).  Louisville is the first out, followed by UConn and Notre Dame.  Cincinnati limps pathetically home in eleventh place (or worse...Seton Hall, St. John's anyone??)

Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch Changes

Ah, how about a song reference sever score past it's timeliness to kick off the week... yes, the constant striving for headline greatness will never cease here at MarchManiacs baby!

Last year was a top-heavy year in college hoops, with three Goliaths from the BEast claiming top seeds, offset by mighty North Carolina.  One short year later?  The BEast may indeed lay claim to at least two #1 seeds in March, but it certainly won't come from last year's triumvirate of UConn, Louisville and Pitt.  As for UNC?  They are one more bad home loss away from "seeding" being the least of their concerns.  They might be struggling to earn a home game in the Not Invited Tourney...

Two of last year's behemoths clash tonight in what has the look of a back-to-wall classic.  Both Louisville and UConn enter tonight's contest with non-winning conference records and honest to goodness bubble status.  Louisville is desperately devoid of a "quality win", though they came within a bucket (and some controversy) of beating both Pitt and West Virginia in the last two weeks.  UConn has the good win (Texas) and high quality non-conference losses (@ Kentucky, @ Duke), and looked like they were poised to not only make the tourney but be a threat to get out of the first weekend.  A funny thing happened after the upset of Texas (who has major issues themselves these days).  The bottom fell out.  Back to back bad losses; by 13 at Providence and at home to Marquette have left the Huskies at 13-8 (3-5) and desperate for a win tonight.

The winner stacks a major chip in their pile for an at-large bid.  The loser picks up their ninth loss of the year with more than a month of grueling conference games still to play.  That's not a place you want to be on February 1st.

Pitt was supposed to be rebuilding this year.  Then they were supposed to be this dominant force, knocking off conference big shots in their gyms seemingly every week.  This week, clear the deck for the crash landing.  The loss to Georgetown was understandable, particularly on the heels of a game they were very very fortunate to escape with a win over Louisville.  The losses to Seton Hall and South Florida have me rethinking just how firm of footing the Panthers our on for  March.  Road wins over the Cuse, Cincy and UConn go a long way, but their non-conference resume is glaringly bare; a fact that was overlooked during their hot conference start, likely because no one was paying attention to Pitt in December.  At the time, they simply weren't relevant. 

With games this week AT West Virginia and hosting Seton Hall, the Panthers find themselves a few more losses away from being relevant in another discussion; the bubble.

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Moving and Shaking

Today is going to be filled with movers and shakers.  Movers; as into prime tourney position; and Shakers, teams whose footing is going to be shaky with a loss to say the least.

Here is a quick rundown of the biggest games of a packed Saturday.

Louisville @ West Virginia:  The Cards are 13-7, and a loss today would drop them to 13-8.  With nary a great win on their resume and looming blowout losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina, anything shy of a huge step-up game today leaves them in dire straights.  For the Mountaineers, a number one seed isn't out of the question, but they can't drop any more home games.  Especially to teams like the 'Ville.

Marquette @ Connecticut:   The Warriors are the textbook definition of a tough-luck ballclub, having lost three games in conference to Top 25 team in the final seconds.  Since the NCAA committee rarely looks at margin of loss, the biggest stat that matters right now is 12-8.   Connecticut is only one game better at 13-7, but has better non-conference wins (and losses) and a little more name cache (not that it is supposed to matter).  Interesting fact, Marquette is 0-5 on the road this season.  If that streak runs to six, it's time to kick some dirt on their grave.  However, should they win, the middle of the BEast gets intersting with both teams in a six or seven team scrum for likely two, possibly three bids.  It's a BIG game in Storrs (but let's hope the Huskie fans don't storm the court if they win...seriously...stay off the floor.)

Duke @ Georgetown:  Wow!  How often do we get an Elite Eight level non-conference game this late in the year?  Not very often, so enjoy it.  The winner puts a HUGE chip in their pile and stays on track for a #1 or #2 seed.  Duke loses less with a loss since its a true road game.  If the Hoyas lose, it has them trending towards a 4/5 seed.  Neither team is crippled with a loss, but still a fantastic game worth tuning in to.

Oklahoma St. @ Missouri:  A HUGE battle for 4th place in the Big 12 (and with K-State at Kansas tonight, perhaps even third place...).  Both teams have been pleasantly surprising this year, easily outpacing Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  OK State is 16-4, Mizzou stands at 15-5, and they are tied in conference play.  This game gives the winner a huge leg up in getting to the Dance.

Baylor @ Texas:  Put Baylor in the category with the two teams above; pleasantly surprising.  Texas is still a beast - don't let the recent slide fool you.  They are still in line for a possible #1 seed...unless Baylor clips them on the road.  A win like this one would likely have Scott Drew's Bears on the right side of the bubble come March.


Vanderbilt @ Kentucky:  Forget the subplot lines; Kentucky rebounding from their first loss, Vandy trying to stay hot, etc.  This game is for the lead in the SEC East.  If Vandy nips the Cats, they would open up a two game conference lead and have already beaten Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina on the road.  Doesn't that sound like the resume of a Top 2 seed??  Not saying ANY of that will happen, but today's game is bigger than it looks on paper (and in the AP polls).


Harvard @ Cornell:  Forget the hyperbole for all the games I scrawled above about getting in or not making the tournament.  The most important game of the day is happening on the campus of the Cornell Red.  The Ivy League is the only league that refuses to play a conference tournament, meaning the regular season winner gets the league's tourney bid.  I have read a few columns that suggested the Red would earn an at-large bid should they falter to the Crimson.  Don't believe that for a second!  Sentimentality aside, their signature "win" is a close loss to Kansas.  If that's what you are looking for, give Charlie Weiss and extension at Notre Dame.  This game is do-or-die, and probably the best game in the country tomorrow.  Of course, unless you live on campus at Cornell, I don't think you'll be able to see it...just check back here for the coverage...


Northwestern @ Michigan State:  Many people on TV and radio suggested the Wildcats need this game to have any chance at the tourney (not true - as my loyal readers know) BUT if they can repeat last year's surprising win at Sparty it does put a HUGE chip in their pile for earning their first ever NCAA bid.  That said, don't dispair when Sparty hammers them.


Kansas @ Kansas State:  The Maniac was one of many who praised the KSU students for staying OFF the court after beating then-number one Texas.  Drop now #1 Kansas?  Have at it guys, have at it.  And while you are at it, dodge the subsequent let down game and you have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 and earning a #2 seed.  For KU, a win here puts them back atop the polls and has them trending towards the #1 overall seed in the tournament.

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Working Overtime - A Chaotic Saturday in College Hoops

Just in case you needed any more proof that this year's tourney is as unpredictable as any in recent memory, with no clear cut favorites, take a quick sampling of some of this afternoon's contests.

Texas and Kentucky remained the nation's only two unbeatens, but you'd be hard pressed to call them the nation's clear two best teams.  For the second time this week Kentucky looked lackluster, struggling to put away a lower-echelon and NIT-at-BEST conference foes.  Today they let Auburn hang around until the final minutes before a few John Wall blow-byes sealed the deal.  They seem ripe for a loss, though to this point it has been the better teams have brought out the Cats' edge.  Perhaps it will be one of the lesser foes that get them (Arkansas?  @South Carolina?)  They have let Miami (OH), Georgia, and now Auburn play them tight for 39 minutes, yet handled UConn, Louisville and Florida with aplomb.  Lack of focus?  Perhaps it is simply parity, parity, parity.

Texas can let out a Texas-sized sigh of relief after dodging a bullet at home against Texas A&M.  The Aggies led for 39 minutes, all but the most important final one; before the Longhorns forced OT and gabbed the win.  This is not a new trend for the Horns either, as more than a few unranked opponents (though A&M is a good tourney-likely ballclub) hang around until the final few minutes.  Like Kentucky, they have brought their A-game for A-opponents.  The Horns better Monday when they visit Kansas State in Manhattan, or they will leave with their first loss.

The BEast continues to roar with seemingly every game being a fantastic gut-wrencher.  The season kicked off before the new year giving us a West Virginia over Seton Hall OT thriller.  Today?  Syaracuse wins by 1 at West Virginia, Pitt need OT to stave off Louisville (and remain 5-0 in conference), and Notre Dame gets clipped by two in their road upset bid of Cincinnati.  Only Villanova and Pitt remain unbeaten, and legitimatly 11 teams in this league are easily among the Top 65.  Will all eleven gets bids?  Of course not, but those last two are three are going to be one heck of a fight that will likely not be decided until Madison Square Garden.

Not wanting to be left out of the OT party, the SEC handed out an absolute thriller in Knoxville.  While one can debate the meritoriousness, considering the situation that derived the predicament, the Vols are undeniably becoming a team of national curiosity.  Not only are they a good story, they are also the hottest team in the country.  The orange surge continued today with a scintillating win over Ole Miss that took 45 minutes to decide.

Want some more parity?  Georgia Tech and Syracuse eeked out final possession wins over highly rated conference foes on the road (UNC and WVU), yet both have lost home games to unranked opponents in the past two weeks (in the 'Cuse defense, Pitt is Top-15 as of today).  

Clemson looked like world beaters against UNC earlier this week and again for 35 minutes today against NC State.  Then a 19 point lead evaporated into a "glad that desperation three came up short" three point win.  NC State beat Georgia Tech last week.  And lost to Florida on a 60 foot buzzer beater... Seriously, you figure out the ACC.  The only team that seems to be fully clicking is... Virginia?  Yep.  After an 18-point win over Miami (exposed this week much?  Wow.)  the Cavs are the only 3-0 team in the league.  Are they better than Duke?  Not a chance.  But it might be time to start paying attention to the Cavs in the wacky 2010 ACC.

What I do know about the ACC?  Teams are going to continue to pressure Carolina until there is some indication Larry Drew can handle it.  So far, so bad for the sophomore point guard.  The more the pressure turns him over, the more he seems to be pressing.  He really looked rough down the stretch toda against Tech.  It looks to me like Roy Williams is desperately searching for a combination that works, and will have to do it with the Heels unranked for the first time as of Monday (assuming voters have any sense at all...)

And what is going on in Boiler country?  Since writing my well-researched proclamation on the Boilers Final Four-worthiness, they haven't won a single game, going from undefeated to seventh place in the Big Ten in the span of ten days.  Tonight's loss at Northwestern isn't a back-breaker, but a number one seed is starting to slip away.  Michigan State handled their biz today, handing Illinois their first conference loss in moving to 5-0.  This puts Sparty a full three games ahead of Purdue (granted, they still play twice), and I find it hard to believe the committee will reward a number one seed to a team that fails to win their conference (other than the obvious 1-2 in the Big 12 and possibly the BEast).

Parity is running wild, in every conference large and small.  This week's Bracketeering is going to be based a lot on subjective matters and eye-ball tests and hypothesis and is sure to raise a few eyebrows and arguments.

Not that we'd want it any other way.

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Weekend Review - Big East Jan 10th

The nation's most exciting conference of 2008-2009 is living up to the advance billing once again in 2010.  Here is a quick rundown of the weekend that was and the big games coming up this week.

Georgetown's 72-69 comeback win at home against UConn was one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.  Coach K likes to say that great shooting can cover up a lot of team flaws.  In that case Austin Freeman was a giant tarp.  His 28 point second half explosion was a revelation for the Hoyas.  If he can continue to pour it in from the outside, just think how good Greg Monroe can become...

The biggest win of the weekend has to belong to Notre Dame.  Despite their strong record the Irish were desperatly devoid of a quality win.  Toppling West Virginia 70-68 certainly fits the bill.  If the Irish could get into that Top 20, Top 15 range Harangody would be a legitimate challenger to John Wall for player of the year.  His numbers are simply ridiculously off the charts.

Seton Hall notched a big win as well.  The Pirates have played tough in close losses, but that won't get you to the NCAA tourney.  Cincinnati can feel a repeat of year's past unfolding as they fell to 1-3 after the 83-76 road loss to the Hall.

Marquette used an incredible 57 point second half to again fall JUST short, losing 78-76 to Villanova.  The Warriors could easily be 4-0 in conference, but still remain 1-3.  The good news is the losses are all to the top teams in the league.  As their schedule evens out, the Warriors should be fine. 

Louisville moved to 3-0 with their win over St John's (whose tourney hopes are fading quickly).  Now let's see for the 'Ville fares tonight against their first real conference test hosting Villanova. 

Team UP:  Louisville, Georgetown
Team DOWN: St. John's, Cincinnati

Games of the Week: Pitt @ UConn (Wed), Seton Hall @ Georgetown (Thur), Louisville @ Pitt & Syracuse @ West Virginia & Notre Dame @ Cincy (Sat), G'Town @ Nova (Sun)

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Welcome to 2010 Baby

New Year. New Decade. And an incredible slate of college hoops to start it off right. This weekend will give hoops fans an opportunity to most of the nation's best teams (except Texas, who did it last week) get tested.

The game of the day features more than just great hoops. It features the greatest intensifier of all; good old fashioned hate. Rick Pitino visits his old stompin' grounds of hallowed Rupp Arena tomorrow in a position his Cards haven't been in for several years; trying to spring the upset on the heavily favored 'Cats. To add even a little more spice to the day, Calipari was recently the target of some rather pointed criticism by Bobby Knight, while Rick Pitino's offseason read like a John Grisham novel. In fact, it prompted one of the best shirts I've ever seen; sported by a Card fan it read simply "at least our coach only cheats OFF the court." Twisted, but inspired to say the least...

Yes Rick, all eyes on you indeed...

Gotta love the passion down in the Bluegrass. Kentucky is favored by 8, and despite the margin it will be the best test of tournament-style intensity the Cats have faced this year. Carolina and UCONN were great wins, but the volume and magnitude of this game is a great introduction to the passion of March for freshman Bledsoe, Cousins and Wall. Should the Cats survive the Cards and a Jan 12th trip to Gainesville, expect the "undefeated" talk to really ratchet up a notch...

Kansas plays their first real game of the year and gets a chance to finally shut The Maniac up about their soft road thus far. The Jayhawks travel to Philly to face red-hot Temple (5:30 EST) and their tempo-controlling style. The 'Hawks have more talent, but how will they handle their first true test outside of the Phogg? If the Owls can pull one of the first legit "upsets" of this young season (sidenote: Saw a headline on a major sports site, claiming "Bearcats STUN #10 UConn at the buzzer" Holy hyperbole Batman!) they can start looking at a Top 10 ranking and begin thinking Top 4 seed in March...

UConn and Syracuse have quality ballgames, though it might constitute an "off game" by brutal Big East standards. Both play at home, hosting Notre Dame and Pitt respectivly. Meanwhile Villanova takes a tricky trip to Marquette, who will be trying to regroup after gagging one up in West Virginia earler this week. Every day is a good day in the Big East. Don't be surprised if one, or all, of these games is closer than expected.

UAB has an interesting trip to Arkansas Saturday. Should the Hogs beat them, the Blazers will have dropped back-to-backers to UVA and Arkansas; two of the bottom teams in the BCS conferences. That wouldn't bode particularly well for Conference USA, especially after Houston lost to Texas-San Antonio tonight at home.

Big Ten play continues as well after an already-eventful start when Michigan State heads to Northwestern. Should Northwestern fall, they can kiss their brief time in the Top 25 goodbye...and also might begin to worry about their tourney prospects with their schedule not relenting anytime soon (and an 0-2 Big Ten start).

Tomorrow also features a real bevy of late, quality, non-conference tilts. Baylor at South Carolina is a nice matchup of bubble-caliber teams from good, multi-bid leagues. Gonzaga at Illinois is yet another stiff test for the Zags. They looked great last night hammering Oklahoma, but will they have enough gas in the tank against an Illini squad that can ill-afford another setback?

Oklahoma State takes a daring trip to Rhode Island tomorrow evening. Kudos to the Cowboys for playing a game like this against a smaller-name, very solid A-10 team. The A-10 has quite a day lined up with some Big Six foes. Charlotte will be hosting ACC Georgia Tech to round out the trifecta. It will be interesting to see how all three handle the opportunity.

I,m not sure if any cable outlet in America will be providing the 4pm game between William & Mary and Hofstra, but at this point I feel obligated to keep you updated on the Tribe. They are seeking to follow up their Maryland road win with another tough, albeit less glamorous, road win. This is a classic trap game, with Hofstra not expected to be among the CAA elite, but the kind of game you need to win if you want to be a serious at-large contender. By the way, not sure it means much right now (and of course it will drop as conference play lowers their strength of schedule) but W&M is 6th in the RPI as the calendar flips to 2010. Just thought you'd like to know.

Home of the nation's #6 team?? It's pretty early to look at RPI's...but still worth taking notice

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The Belly of the BEast

The Maniac is finally able to sit after gorging on obscene amounts of Christmas Feastings. It got me thinking about who might be feasting and who might be looking at a famine in the bountiful upcoming Big East buffet.

* (Maniac's Note: Each team plays all 15 teams once, and three random teams twice. Ergo, schedule really really matters when the difference is one or two wins)

The Middle of the BEast:
Nearly everyone from the Big East enters conference play at 9-1, 10-1, 11-2, or 8-3 at worst. Assuming Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova and UConn as tourney locks, that leaves three to an unlikely five bids likely up for grabs. So who will separate themselves from the pack and battle for bids five through eight (and possibly nine) that the conference will receive?

Cincinnati - The Cats looked great early, but have slipped the last few weeks. At 8-3, they will need to go 10-8 in conference to feel safe, but do benefit from drawing Villanova, Syracuse, Georgetown and West Virginia only once. The only of the sure-fire tourney teams they get twice is UConn. If they handle the games they should win, the Cats will be in good shape in March.

Georgetown - The obvious favorite, but the Hoyas looked to be at exactly the same spot last year. The home loss to Old Dominion makes me at least aware that the Hoyas as not in lock status yet. Their mid-conference tussle with Duke is an aggressive, yet daring chance to steal a win that tips the scales in their favor should they find themselves muddled in a big group with eight to ten conference wins.

Marquette - The Eagles were the early darling after wins over Xavier and Michigan. All of a sudden, neither of those wins are over a ranked team (or tourney lock) and the losses to Florida State, Wisconsin and NC State represent the only other quality opponents en route to their 8-3 start. The Eagles will have some work to do in conference and feel like a team we will be talking about needing a win or two in the conference tourney to feel safely in the field of 65.

Notre Dame - Doesn't it feel like Luke Harangody has been here forever? The senior All-American might be feeling like he is living his career in reverse, Benjamin Snooze Button style. Each year, instead of growing up, it feels like the Irish regress. The Irish are 11-2, and like all league team, are only a 10-8 conference record away from the Big Dance. After home losses to Loyola Marymount and missing an opportunity for a quality win against Northwestern, the resume is shockingly blank. Their three best wins are probably UCLA, Long Beach State and UCF. That leaves a lot of work to be done in conference, and not much preparation for the task ahead. Looks like the "duck" of the Irish might do them in this season.

St John's - It is easy to be a little down on the Johnnies after their 71-66 loss to Cornell, but as our faithful readers already know, Cornell is really good. I'm calling my shot three months early and tagging them the 13 seed to be afraid of. Their only other loss is a respectable 9-pointer to Duke. They have wins over Temple and Siena. Only the Owls give them a chip to play outside of conference wins they amass. It is going to take 10-8, and I'm not sure they are quite good enough to get that many wins, but 8 or 9 and a bubble perch is not out of the question. The scheduling Gods have done them a favor, as they play each of the top five teams in conference (the four locks and G'Town) only once each. They get L'ville, Pitt and DePaul twice.

Louisville - What to make of Pitino and the Cards? They are the toughest team to get a read on. The were blasted by Charlotte and Western Carolina at home. They have beaten the hell out of Oral Roberts and Western Kentucky who have some good wins on their resumes. The Jan 2nd game against Kentucky provides an opportunity to gain some desperatly needed confidence and momentum. Assuming they do not pull the upset, the Cards have left themselves a lot of work to do in conference play. The Big East is a tough place to do that. They get Syracuse and UConn twice, and go to Morgantown in their lone shot at the Mountaineers.

Seton Hall - The Pirates were the trendy pick preseason to make the "leap" into the top half of the BEast. They might, but so far The Maniac just doesn't see it. Their best wins are Cornell and UMass. They really haven't played the schedule to prepare them for what is coming. I think everyone might get a preview of that tomorrow when they play WVU. They play WVU twice, but go to 'Nova, to G'town and to UConn in their lone meetings. That is a recipe for losses and a lack of quality wins over ranked opponents. It has the makings of a Providence 2008-2009 like resume for the Pirates. However, the one saving grace might be the final four conference games are all very winnable. That late momentum surge could pop the bubble in the Pirates favor.

Pitt - Was it really ten months ago the Panthers were ranked #1 in the nation?!? It feels like a lot longer, not just for me, but also for Jamie Dixon. The young Panthers have looked good at times, beating Wichita State and playing a good first half against Texas, but their resume is really thin. A double-digit loss to Indiana is a sub-RPI 100 loss and it is hard to imagine them picking up more than 7-8 wins in conference, though home&home's with St Johns and Seton Hall might give them a chance to earn a bid in a mano y mano y mano slugfest.

South Florida - An easy team to dismiss into the bottom four (with Rutgers, Providence and DePaul) if you haven't watched them play, but the Bulls are a much improved, and talent laden squad. They have an NBA-caliber talent in Dominque Jones, and are sitting at 10-2. They have wins over San Diego and Virginia and lost by just three to South Carolina and Central Michigan. They will have do some real work in conference, but the Bulls are no longer the gimme they might have been in past years. They get St. Johns and Notre Dame twice, so if the Bulls want it there is a chance to go take it.

Maniac's Crystal Ball:
IN: Georgetown, Cincinnati
BUBBLE IN: Louisville (Seton Hall, St. John's or Notre Dame) - IF eight or nine, depends a lot on conference tourneys and the Pac-10's sepatation in league play
BUBBLE OUT: South Florida, Marquette

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Wednesday's Highlights

There were a couple interesting games last night, and a few resume building wins. Here's a quick sweep on a few you might have missed.

NIGHT IN REVIEW:

UAB validated it's 8-1 record with an exclamation point win over former C-USA rival Cincinnati. The Maniac took a pretty big swipe across C-USA's bow earlier this week, but readily tips his cap to the Blazers' Wednesday night effort. The 64-47 win places them solidly in at-large consideration with a second place conference finish. It is an especialy big win when considering their other "big" wins were Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Georgia. With only chances against Butler (quality), Virgina and Arkansas (not so much...) remaining before conference play this win will be enormous when the Blazers are thrown up on the big board.

For the Bearcats, it is a disappointing response following a tough double-OT loss to crosstown rival Xavier on Sunday night. For Bearcat fans, there has to be some trepidation following another tourney miss-season that began very similarly to this one. I think the Bearcats are still an NCAA Tourney team, especially as Stevenson blossoms, but things need to get on track quickly. There final two non-conference games are minor tuneups, but the BEast begins soon and appears to be nearly as tough as last year.

Louisville stopped their steep slide with a hammering win over Oral Roberts. Granted, they weren't exactly tacking UNLV 1990, but the 94-57 win is a good sign Pitino's Cards realize they can't look past anyone this season any longer...

Ole Miss continued their daring ways, erasing a ten point deficit in the final five minutes to force OT and earn a 91-81 win over UTEP. The Maniac was also critical of UTEP's early light schedule, but admits to being impressed with them in defeat. Derrick Caracter will add an inside presence that few in C-USA will be able to match.

Don't look now, but the Kevin Coble-less Northwestern Wildcats are putting themselves in fine position to earn the school's first ever NCAA Tourney invite. They are 9-1, with wins over Notre Dame, Iowa State, and NC State. Their lone loss is against a top 15 Butler team that will likely be a top-4 seed come March. If they win their final two non-conference games (Saturday's Stanford game is a tricky one) they can go 8-10 in the loaded Big Ten and get some consideration. 9-9 would make them a near lock.

How about the hammering South Carolina laid on Richmond last night? The Spiders had looked good early this season and felt like a potential sleeper in the A-10. South Carolina, led by Devin Downey in what feels like his twenty second year of eligibilty, are going to have a great opportunity to contend for an at-large bid in the loaded SEC East. The good thing about sharing the East with Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, and Vandy is that all five will get eight opportunities for quality wins.

For Richmond, all is not lost. They still have quality wins over Mississippi State, Old Dominion and Missouri in their hip pocket and their three losses to William & Mary, VCU and the Gamecocks should all be Top 100, if not Top 50 RPI losses in March. It does however make this weekends trip to Gainesville an interesting litmus test of the Spiders' legitimacy.

Finally Oklahoma State rebounded from their humbling loss to Tulsa with a nice 71-70 win over Stanford. The Cardinal have now lost to Kentucky in OT, and Oklahoma State by 1. So someone explain to be the 83-81 loss to Oral Roberts? Regardless, on their good days the Cardinal appear to be strong enough to challenge for third in the Pac 10. And, yes, that is meant more as an insult to the beleaguered Pac-10.

Not too much going on in college hoops tonight. Enjoy the Colts going for 14-0, and a serious, somber RIP to Chris Henry.

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Breaking Down the Midwest Region

Previewing the Midwest Region

Best First Round Game: West Virginia v. Dayton. The Flyers downed Big East foe Marquette earlier this year, utilizing their quickness and solid guard play. They are going to need every bit of it in order to tackle Bob Huggins' Mountaineers. West Virginia freshman Devin Ebanks has just begun to scratch the surface of his talent over the past three weeks and guard Alex Ruoff can shoot his team deep into the tourney.

Best Player: An easy argument could be made for Louisville's Terrance Williams, Wake Forest's Jeff Teauge and Kansas's duo of Sherron Collins and Cole Alderich, however the Maniac is going to go with an unlikely pair; Arizona's Jordan Hill and Chase Buddinger. For whatever reason (and there are a lot to choose from) things never quite clicked in Tuscon this year. If for some reason it finally does this weekend, it will be in large part because of these two future first-rounders. Either way, this combo makes Arizona one of the more talented #12's in recent memory.

Most important player: Edgar Sosa - Louisville. When the Cards struggled early, it was their guard play that plagued them. Sosa's role is far diminished from the role he played in the 2007 tourney (where he was sensational as a freshman, by the way), but it is still an important one. If he and the guards can control tempo and the basketball, Pitino's Cards look like the favorite to get to Detroit.

A couple runner-ups include Michigan State's Kalin Lucas, WVU's Alex Ruoff and USC's DeMarr Derozan.

Worst Seeding: Siena at a #9. I know, everyone loves the Saints (that's Siena's nickname by the way) and the tourney toughness from their tough schedule. Let's recap Siena's Top 50 wins. Ok, we're done. There aren't any. But clearly the strength of schedule propelled them to a #9 seed. Meanwhile Tennessee is also a #9, despite winning the SEC East, a down, but clearly superior league to Siena's and playing the nation's 2nd toughest schedule. Oh, and the Vols even WON a few of them. Siena should be an #11 at best, more likely a #12.

Toughest Break: Siena, once again. I think Ohio State beats them anywhere, anytime, anyway, but playing the game in Dayton where tens of thousands of Buckeye fans can make the hour drive is a pretty unwarranted advantage for OSU.

Possible 2nd Round Gem: How about Arizona versus Wake? That game would likely feature more future first-rounders than any other game in the tourney. Jordan Hill, Chase Buddinger, Jeff Teague, Al-Farouq Aminu and James Johnson,; they aren't all household names, but their talent is unquestionably immense.

Easiest to Root For: North Dakota State makes their first ever NCAA tourney appearance in their first season of eligibility. The Bison went 16-2 in the Summit Conference, and played USC tough earlier this season in Los Angeles. Don't be surprised if the Bison hang around long enough to rally some excitement in the crowd...and some tough flashbacks of Bison for Jayhawk fans...

Maniac's Sweet Sixteen Picks:
Louisville over Arizona, and Michigan State over West Virginia
Louisville beating the Spartans to head to Detroit

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Who Wants Morehead!

Um. Everybody?

But seriously, there is no time like the present to get a jump on congratulating our 2009 National Champion, the Morehead State Eagles. By using some simple extrapolations it is a quite plausible scenario. Follow along please:

Morehead State defeated UCF 71-65.
The Knights bested New Mexico 72-71.
New Mexico beat UNLV 73-69.
UNLV defeated Louisville 56-55

In four easy steps, it is plain to see, Morehead State is the team to beat in this year's tourney.

Four Steps? Impressive.
Oh, and "this guy" to the title question.

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Big Wins and Damaging Losses

Everything in the final few weeks is under a much closer magnifying glass. There are a few teams who might wish they could have shuffled yesterday's losses into the November mulligan pile.

Bad Losses:

• Miami (FL) all but sealed their NIT fate last night, falling to Florida State 80-67. The Canes join Notre Dame and Georgetown as one of the most disapointing teams in 2009.

• Illinois was starting to gather some momentum as a possible top-4 seed. Last night that came to a clanking halt. Let me emphasize "clank." As in 33 points. Yup, just 33 points. Granted Penn State netted only 38 in what has to be one of the lousier "decent" games of the season.

• Providence wasn't supposed to win at Louisville, but posting another double-digit loss against a formidable foe gives some ammo to the case for leaving out the Friars. One of their only saving graces might be the fact that Georgetown and Notre Dame seemingly refuse to make a late season charge, and the Big East is GOING to get eight teams in...

• Butler dropped another game last night, this time a three point loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Butler peaked in the Top 10, but is looking more like a 10 seed if they don't get it together quickly.

• Someone should volunteer to play defense down in Knoxville. Most people still have the Vols comfortably in the tourney, but they sure are begging the committee to reconsider. Last night they got drubbed 81-65 by Ole Miss to fall to 7-4 in conference. They are 7-7 over their last 14 games overall. The Vols are still in decent shape, but with games still remaining against Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina they can still play themselves out of the tourney.

• Speaking of South Carolina, losing to Mississippi State is not the way to play yourself onto the good side of the bubble. The Gamecocks still have some work to do over the next three weeks.

• Ohio State is the same story; things were looking good until last night's surprising loss to Northwestern. With a few tips and breaks here and there, we wouldn't be talking about Ohio State's bad loss, but perhaps the Wildcats big win. Alas, that was a game the Buckeyes needed to stay in the Big Ten race.

• Perhaps the worst loss of the night was Virginia Tech. The Hokies find themselves in the bubble muddle in the middle of the deep ACC along with Florida State, BC, Miami and Maryland. That made losing to in-state rival Virginia particularly damning for VA Tech.

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