It is with that smug spirit of contrarianism that we shall embark on the season innagural edition of Bracketeering! As always, comments, feedback and profanity-laced anatomically-challenging emails and posts are thoroughly enjoyed and welcomed...
FINAL FOUR:
#1 Kentucky - I'll spare you the email; YES, I was the guy who joked "time to start writing the 'Final Four Banners taken DOWN from the Rafters' story" within minutes of Coach Cal's hiring. Well, so far he has proven me half correct; there is a Final Four banner in the rafters. And in my opinion, it's likely another will be joining it this season. As far as the "taking it down" part, there is no evidence to suggest Calipari has made even the slightest errant step in Lexington. However, for those of you who were history majors in college...you know what they say about its repetition...
Anyhow - This is easily my favorite Kentucky team since Tubby Smith was in the Bluegrass. The Gilespie Era was an abject trainwreck. The John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins team was too erratic and immature (and frankly, just not a likeable mesh of players), and last year's Final Four team was nearly as ugly, and not nearly a Final Four caliber team most of the season aside from the final two weekends. This team is different than the past two editions of isolation and dribble drive, force up shots and buy time until the NBA Draft rolls around Kentucky basketball. Marquis Teague is a similarly top-ranked prep point guard, but he is more in the distributor mode than either John Wall or Brandin Knight. Terrance Jones is a year more seasoned and provides a legitimate first-team All-American swing/power forward with some ferocity, and Doron Lamb is the team's most reliable shooter and scorer from the perimter.
The nice thing is, this will get settled on the court in less than ten days. Until then, give me the Cats in the top slot.
#2 North Carolina - They are everyone's #1 for a reason. They are absolutely loaded. Barnes returned after a slow-starting, but quietly spectacular freshman season and should vie with Jared Sullinger for national player of the year honors in 2012. The inside duo of Henson and Zeller are as talented as any frontcourt in the nation (though I am not sold on their interior defensive presence; yes Henson is a good shot blocker, but is he really going to body a Jared Sullinger out of the lane??), and Marshall Strickland is a fantastic distributor who looks up the floor better than any collegiate guard in the country.
When looking at a team than is going to struggle to find minutes for McDonald's All-American freshman James McAdoo because of the dearth of talent, identifying flaws is obviously a nit-picking venture. However, nitpick I shall... this is not a perfect team in the mold of the two national championship teams in the Roy Williams era. Zeller has developed some pretty moves, but is nowhere near the reliable 'dump it in the post every time down the floor' scoring option that Tyler Hansbrough was. I'd grade him significantly behind Sean May in that regard as well. This team is also devoid of a defensive wing stopper in the mold of a Danny Green or Raymond Felton. And the outside shooting of the 2011-2012 Heels?? Let's just say they'd be wise to keep it up tempo and run run run.
This sounds like we're down on the Heels. Not true. In fact, to have this team anywhere outside of the Top Three is being contrarian for the sake of being obnoxious. And at MarchManiacs, we are obnoxious for completely independent reasons. UNC is fantastically talented, and I'm not sure either national championship team had a player with the beautiful slashing and mid-range game of Harrison Barnes. He has the ability to elevate this team from "fantastic" to "transcendent."
#3 Duke - Every flaw you could find about North Carolina? Flip them when discussing the Blue Devils. Duke has plenty of size and toughness inside. But no one even close to the feathery touch and deft post moves of Tyler Zeller. North Carolina has the consummate distributor and playmaker at point guard. Duke, in very un-Duke like fashion, has a makeshift point guard committee, with the primary ballhandling responsibilities falling to sharp shooter Seth Curry.
And perimeter shooting? Not an issue for the Dukies. Although Austin Rivers's shot selection still leaves a bit to be desired (more on that later), shooting from behind the arc is something this team will do as well as any team in the nation. Curry and Andre' Dawkins can flat-out knock it down. Rivers is potentially deadly albeit streaky, and no 6'11' player in the country shoots as well from distance as Duke's Brian Kelly.
The danger for Duke lies in the early tendency of freshman Austin Rivers to take about four or five ridiculous shots per game. So far, Coach K has seemed surprisingly patient with the frosh's shot selection, and his teammates have been typically plucky Duke supporters, clapping and cheering their teammate on. But at some point, in a big moment or as a tight tough game starts to slip away, you have to wonder if some of the frustration and tension might surface. So far, so good... but when it does become a story in a month or two, remember you read it at MarchManiacs.com back before Thanksgiving...
#4 Ohio State - I'll be the first to caution giddy Buckeye fans not to overlook the impact of the loss of defensive wizard David Lighty and his tremendous contribution in the "little things" department. However when likely Top 3 NBA Draft pick (if not #1 overall) Jared Sullinger surprises everyone and decides to return for his sophomore season, a little exuberance is to be tolerated.
And even though the school's alltime leader in 3-pointers made, Jon Diebler and sixth man tough-guy Dallas Lauderdale have also graduated, don't weep to openly for Coach Matta. The cupboard is far from bare in Columbus. Look for senior William Buford to fill in some of the scoring gaps (he was the team's unheralded second-leading scorer in 2011) and for Aaron Craft to continue to blossom in his sophomore season, evolving nicely into a gritty floor leader in the Chris Kramer+Jordan Taylor mold (to blend two Big Ten guards into a nice visual package for you).
6'7'' swingman Deshaun Thomas is a burgeoning star waiting to explode on to the scene for the Buckeyes, and while he won't make anyone forget David Lighty, he will certainly make the loss much less painful.
I have the Buckeyes in my Final Four, but a clear peg behind North Carolina and Kentucky. However, come March, I'm not sure they won't be that team that everyone takes a liking to as the #1 seed to pick for people shying away from the wire-to-wire darlings in Chapel Hill and Lexington.
Elite Eight:
We will dig in to each of these ballclubs in further detail in the not-so-distant future, but for brevity sake (I think this column is pushing 2000 words...) let's list 'em out quickly...
#5 - UConn - This year's team might actually be better than last year's surprising national champs. Jeremy Lamb is a legitimate National POY candidate.
#6 - Missouri - Their breakneck tempo and outstanding backcourt of Denmon and English could be the class of the Big 12.
#8 - Syracuse - Some questions remain on the perimeter, but Boeheim has yet another talented squad in Syracuse. Hopefully the allegations swirling around their longtime assistant coach prove meritless... for the sake of not just the alleged victims but college basketball fans everywhere.
Sweet and Lurking:
#9 - Louisville - Can Kyle Couric lead this team to the top of the Big East? The Card fan favorite has been excellent in the early season, but Pitino and crew will need some solid play from their big guys if they want to hang with UConn and Syracuse in the Big East.
#10 - Baylor - The most talented team in the Big 12, but I don't recall seeing them in the NCAA tourney last year, do you??
#11 - Alabama - Maybe Purdue is just worse than I thought, but watching Anthony Grant's team get after the Boilermakers defensively was impressive. I'd be stunned if this team is left out of the Big Dance again in 2012.
#12 - Florida - It's hard to hold a loss to Ohio State against them too badly. I am still not in love with their smallish backcourt, but the emergence of freshman Brad Beal will infuse a much-needed big time scorer jolt into that lineup.
#13 - Xavier - Tu Holloway is a true big time lead guard, cut from the mold of a Kemba Walker. Coach Mack hopes he can generate a similar result. Xavier plays a spectacular out-of-conference schedule that includes Gonzaga, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Memphis and Cincinnati (not to mention Long Beach State, who could prove a dangerous trap game), so we will get to find out pretty quickly just how legit the beast of the A-10 is as a Final Four contender in 2012.#14 - Gonzaga - Elias Harris and Robert Sacre give the Zags one of the better veteran tandems in the country. Is 6'1'' freshman Kevin Pangos going to be able to continue to light it up from the outside to the tune of 18+ a night?
#15 - Vanderbilt - Yes, I know. They lost at home to Cleveland State. It was a bad loss. However, this is still one of the better teams in the country, especially once they get Festus Azili back from his six-game NCAA-imposed suspension. John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor combine for one of the best backcourt running mates in the country. The Commodores early season play doesn't earn them a Top 16 slot; even that 2-point win last night over Oregon State was sketchy... but I am still going to stick with Vandy and hope to be rewarded come February and March...
#16 - St. Louis - I always like to take a flyer on someone at the sixteenth slot, so let's really go for it to kick off the season. The Billikens beat the nonsense out of both Southern Illinois and Washington already this season, and have a legit chance to win their Thanksgiving tournament that tips off tomorrow against Boston College. Xavier is the class of the A10, and Temple has the bigger name, but don't be surprised is Saint Louis is ranked by season's end and a lock for an NCAA Tourney appearance.
