Look, anyone who tells you they are "good at tournament pools" is a moron. Seriously. They are dumb. It is equivalent to the person who is good at "being lucky." Not only is it moronic, it's oxymoronic.
OK, to everyone who has it all figured out. What if Evan Turner doesn't hit a 37-footer at the buzzer in the first round to beat Big Ten #8 Michigan? It's an early entry for the Bucks and perhaps their 2 seed in the "deepest bracket of all time" seems like a softer draw than say, Georgetown or West Virginia would have been. Certainly softer than Kansas State.
Does Evan Turner make the Buckeyes dynamic? You better believe it. Our loyal readers know we were about two months ahead of the ET-sycophants and had him as our National POY from Day One... yet I digress. There will be plenty of time (and an entire column) for "I Told You So's."
Now, predicting a tournament? Nearly impossible. Analyzing game-to-game matchups, not so impossible. But in a massive tournament where one bounc changes the entire future field, anyone NOT picking chalk and proclaiming some clairvoyance is simply a little off.
What we can do, however is talk "value." Here are the Maniac's Five Value Picks to cut down the nets in Indy, based on Danny Sheridan's Odds.
1. Duke (8:1)
Why does everyone hate Duke so much? I have heard they are soft. Throw out the Georgetown game (everyone gets a mulligan, perhaps Georgetown used theres less judiciously at home against Old Dominion...seriously, look at some of Georgetown's losses all ye' bandwagoners...) and I fail to see a "soft" team. If their style of play was played by player who looked differently the athleticism and toughness questions would never arise. It's true. Singler is a goofy looking dude and Scheyer wouldn't be your first pick at the local JCC. However, in all reality Duke defends exceptionally well on ball screens and does a good job pressuring the ball and making it difficult to initiate offense.
I read a stat that Duke's 43% FG range was terrible (it is below average) and they are ripe for an upset. However, consider their dazzlingly low turnover rate, the fact they shoot a tremendous volume of 3's and the emergence of Zoubek and Plumlee on the offensive glass and what you get is one of the most efficient, in terms of points per possession, teams in the country.
Their points for/points against ratio is also one of the top in the nation, and don't tell me they didn't play a solid, challenging schedule.
As more than one coach has deadpanned for the camera when asked the key to victory; "Score more points."
Factor in what is being touted as a soft region (I agree, Villanova "swooned" late - you know why? Their schedule was backloaded and they lost to teams better than them. If they are #6 on the S-Curve something is really wrong...), and 8:1 becomes more attractive. If I told you that in a year of relative parity ou could have a team at 8:1 heading into the Final Four, you'd take it, no questions asked. That kiddies, is what makes Duke the top value on the board.
2. Baylor (50:1)
Man, this one is absurd. Is Baylor winning it all? Probably not. Is there any team in their region (Duke, Villanova) leaps and bounds better than them? Folks, there isn't. Tweety Carter, LaceDarius Dunn and Ekpe Udoh are as good a "Big Three" as anyone in the country boasts. Udoh is probably the best shot blocker in the tourney (since Mississippi State got screwed) and their backcourt is lightening quick, explosive and the highest scoring in BCS conferences. They have mid-range guys who can go out on the perimeter and score off the bounce. Does that sound like a recipe that gives a certain team trouble?? Correct, see above.
At 50:1, I'd drop a ten spot on Baylor and hope they make it to the Final Four. At that point, you have great leverage to hedge the bet and really enjoy March Madness.
3. New Mexico (75:1)
Has Danny Sheridan watched any college basketball this season? Did he realize the Lobo's were a 3-seed? Was he perhaps confused and thought it meant Rebecca "Lobo"? Again, if we are talking value, anyone who will give you 75:1 for a three-seed (I know, what about Pitt at 75:1, Maniac? But that's different - Pitt sucks. Tell me the last time they out-played their seed in the tourney? Exactly.) in a parity-driven "down" year that saw more teams ranked in the Top 25 than any season in college hoops history; TAKE IT. Great value bet.
4. West Virginia (10:1)
The point guard play scares me a bit, but their only real road block en route to Indy is Kentucky. I think WVU is deep enough scoring-threat wise to trade punches and rebounds well enough to control tempo and prevent Kentucky from running out. In a half-court game I am not sure the Cats can make enough shots to win three games in a row (the #16 is a virtual bye). The Mountaineers seem to be peaking at the right time and have a stone-cold clutch winner in De'Sean Butler; ironically, close friends with Evan Turner, as they have similar skill-sets and big shot mojo. I'd say it is fair to call Butler a poor-man's ET, but keep in mind Butler has SIX game winning shots this year, and was monsterous in a second half comeback over...yup, Ohio State back in January.
5. Worst Values on the Board!
There are a few to choose from. First off, Purdue at 55:1 is ludicrous. Purdue at 500:1 still seems like laying money on Bernie Madoff. Is there any possible way this team gets to the Final Four? I really don't think so. That said, I'm not giving the opener to Siena, nor the second rounder to Texas A&M. Purdue still has a decent core of talent, they just laid an egg an an inopportune time on national TV Saturday. It happens. However, I saw what Duke did to them live and in person last year in Mackey Arena, and that was a full-strength Purdue team and a worse Duke team. It's a terrible matchup for Purdue without Hummel as they lack someone else to exploit Duke's relative diffculty with versatile 3/4s.
Wisconsin is terribly over-seeded, and Vandy is a sucker bet at 50:1 and 80:1 respectivly. I wouldn't be surprised to see both go home the first weekend.
Lastly, as much as I have loved Syracuse all year, with the lack of depth and the injury to Onawaku, plus the fact they could have to beat Kentucky AND Kansas back-to-back in Indy; I need more than 6:1 to pull the trigger on that one. Give me 10:1 and we're talking value. 6:1 is a little thin.
Enjoy the tournament. And, seriously kids, gamblin' is bad. The Maniac just uses odds and numbers to try and show how smart he is...
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