Ben Hansbrough is the Big East POY - and Two Picks for Tuesday

The college hoops world was abuzz this weekend debating the merits of BYU as a #1 seed.  After the Cougars impressive road win at 27-1 San Diego State, all anyone wanted to know was 'did they deserve to be in the conversation with Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, Pitt and Texas?'

We might want to add another name to that list.  The Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame boasts a senior laden club that shares the ball well, defends with solid team defense, and absolutely shoots the eyes out of the basketball.  Villanova caught the full brunt of all three last night; surrendering a staggering twenty 3-point field goals in a 93-72 defeat that wasn’t even as close as the lopsided score.  At one point in the middle of the second half, Notre Dame led 60-34 before a little lax defensively late in garbage time.

Is there a tougher guard in the country?

One thing I know for sure - Ben Hansbrough deserves to be the Big East Player of the Year. Forget the gaudy stats of Kemba Walker.  Take away some of the enormous point games Kemba put up prior to conference play, and you’ll see Hansbrough’s numbers are very similar – with a ton less turnovers and a TON less forced shots.   

Tonight’s 30 point, 10 assist performance against a Top 15 team was as impressive and individual performance as the Big East has seen this season – and yes, I’m aware Marshon Brooks hung 52 on these same Irish two weeks ago.

The Irish are still a bit on the outside looking in as far as the #1 discussion goes.  However , a few more performances like the one they put on tonight and it won’t be just the Irish eyes smiling – it’ll also be the Selection Committee’s.

Today’s Free College Basketball Picks: (excepted from the Maniac's Column for The Sports Geek)

Baylor Bears +2 @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears entered the season with high aspirations coming off of last season’s Elite Eight run.  Ekpe Udoh and Tweety Carter were gone, but with a stud freshman class coming in and LaceDarius Dunn returning things looked bright. 

Fast forward a few months, and things haven’t quite gone according to plan.  At 18-10 (7-7), Baylor is definitely one the bubble.  A loss at Oklahoma State would likely pop it; especially with Colorado’s upset win over Texas this weekend.

Baylor has been a complete wreck of late, dropping four of their last seven, including crippling losses to Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  In fact, in Big Twelve play Baylor is just 2-5 on the road.  In addition to the above losses, they also managed to slip in a loss at Ames to Iowa State.  Losses to those three teams don’t really help your case with the Selection Committee.

Oklahoma State on the other hand has no illusions of postseason grandeur.  Their role from here on out is simply to play spoiler, a role they played well at home against Missouri and Kansas State.  However, much like Baylor, it’s been a rocky few weeks for the ‘Pokes.  They’ve lost 4 of 5, though their losses have been a little more respectable than Baylor’s, having lost to Nebraska, Texas, Kansas and Texas A&M.

In Big Twelve play Oklahoma State has gone a solid 5-2 at home, while Baylor has gone a lackluster 2-5 on the road.  You do the math.  It equates to a pretty easy selection for Oklahoma State laying the two.

PICK:  Oklahoma State -2

Alabama Crimson +6 @ Florida Gators

If you would have told me that this game would have enormous NCAA Tournament implications, and for Alabama nonetheless, I would have thought you were insane.  After Alabama’s eight place finish in their holiday tournament that included losses to Seton Hall, Iowa, and St. Peter’s, it looked like it was going to be a LONG year for Anthony Grant and the Tide.

The Tide’s turnaround was nothing short of amazing, and they enter tomorrow night’s contest in Gainesville at 19-9, 11-3 in SEC play; easily clinching the SEC West, and tied with the Gators for the best record in the entire league.  The winner of tonight’s contest will be the presumptive #1 overall seed in next week’s SEC Tournament.

The Tide have won 4 of 5, 9 of their last 11, and more impressively 14 of their last 17 contests.  Simply put, the Tide are for real, and might just be the best team in the SEC.  Regardless of this game’s outcome, they have earned their spot in the Field of 68 far more than Georgia (and maybe even Tennessee).  Florida has also played very well after some early season disappointments.  The Gators have won 6 of 7, and an identical 14 of 17 overall.

Alabama’s three conference losses all came on the road; Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Mississippi.  Florida’s three losses were a mixed bag, with two on the road (Mississippi State and this weekend’s Kentucky loss at Rupp), and their ‘mulligan’; an early season loss hosting South Carolina.

Both teams have a ton to play for.  Despite the Gator’s home court advantage, I’m not quite willing to lay a full six points.  Of the Tide’s three losses, none were by more than five points.  Of the Gators eleven wins, only three were by double-digits.

This game has all the makings of a true ‘Battle for First Place’ classic.  I think Florida squeaks out a win, but love the Tide taking ‘em on a ride first.

PICK:  Alabama Crimson Tide +6

Good Day to Wear Orange

It's a good day to wear orange for sure, particularly if the orange is the trim on the white jerseys.

Tennessee and Oklahoma State secured their at-large bids today by knocking off the Top 2 teams in the country, respectively.  A few things showed through in the games.  One, Kentucky was impressive in the comeback, even though they lost.  Fortunately there are no road games in the NCAA Tourney, and seeing how Kentucky fans travel like mad it will never feel like a road game come March.  The second thing is that James Anderson needs to be on the list with Wall, Turner, Wesley Johnson and Scottie Reynolds for National Player of the Year.  I'm not saying he should win it, but he certainly deserves to be in the conversation.

The pair of losses raises an interesting question.  With #1 and #2 losing, suppose Purdue wins tomorrow at home against Michigan State.  Do voters have the cajones to vote a Robbie Hummel-less Purdue squad #1 in the country??  I think they don't. 

If Syaracuse gets the win over a tough Villanova team tonight at the Carrier Dome, expect the 'Cuse to be the nation's top ranked team on Monday.

If ALL FOUR lose, I really have no clue what voters will do.  Don't be surprised if the polls remain largely the same at the top, with only Nova and K-State creeping up...

As we say often, the best thing about polls is that strippers use them.  In college hoops, we settle it on the court, but the next few weeks are going to get crazyin terms of jostling for seeds.

Moving and Shaking

Today is going to be filled with movers and shakers.  Movers; as into prime tourney position; and Shakers, teams whose footing is going to be shaky with a loss to say the least.

Here is a quick rundown of the biggest games of a packed Saturday.

Louisville @ West Virginia:  The Cards are 13-7, and a loss today would drop them to 13-8.  With nary a great win on their resume and looming blowout losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina, anything shy of a huge step-up game today leaves them in dire straights.  For the Mountaineers, a number one seed isn't out of the question, but they can't drop any more home games.  Especially to teams like the 'Ville.

Marquette @ Connecticut:   The Warriors are the textbook definition of a tough-luck ballclub, having lost three games in conference to Top 25 team in the final seconds.  Since the NCAA committee rarely looks at margin of loss, the biggest stat that matters right now is 12-8.   Connecticut is only one game better at 13-7, but has better non-conference wins (and losses) and a little more name cache (not that it is supposed to matter).  Interesting fact, Marquette is 0-5 on the road this season.  If that streak runs to six, it's time to kick some dirt on their grave.  However, should they win, the middle of the BEast gets intersting with both teams in a six or seven team scrum for likely two, possibly three bids.  It's a BIG game in Storrs (but let's hope the Huskie fans don't storm the court if they win...seriously...stay off the floor.)

Duke @ Georgetown:  Wow!  How often do we get an Elite Eight level non-conference game this late in the year?  Not very often, so enjoy it.  The winner puts a HUGE chip in their pile and stays on track for a #1 or #2 seed.  Duke loses less with a loss since its a true road game.  If the Hoyas lose, it has them trending towards a 4/5 seed.  Neither team is crippled with a loss, but still a fantastic game worth tuning in to.

Oklahoma St. @ Missouri:  A HUGE battle for 4th place in the Big 12 (and with K-State at Kansas tonight, perhaps even third place...).  Both teams have been pleasantly surprising this year, easily outpacing Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  OK State is 16-4, Mizzou stands at 15-5, and they are tied in conference play.  This game gives the winner a huge leg up in getting to the Dance.

Baylor @ Texas:  Put Baylor in the category with the two teams above; pleasantly surprising.  Texas is still a beast - don't let the recent slide fool you.  They are still in line for a possible #1 seed...unless Baylor clips them on the road.  A win like this one would likely have Scott Drew's Bears on the right side of the bubble come March.


Vanderbilt @ Kentucky:  Forget the subplot lines; Kentucky rebounding from their first loss, Vandy trying to stay hot, etc.  This game is for the lead in the SEC East.  If Vandy nips the Cats, they would open up a two game conference lead and have already beaten Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina on the road.  Doesn't that sound like the resume of a Top 2 seed??  Not saying ANY of that will happen, but today's game is bigger than it looks on paper (and in the AP polls).


Harvard @ Cornell:  Forget the hyperbole for all the games I scrawled above about getting in or not making the tournament.  The most important game of the day is happening on the campus of the Cornell Red.  The Ivy League is the only league that refuses to play a conference tournament, meaning the regular season winner gets the league's tourney bid.  I have read a few columns that suggested the Red would earn an at-large bid should they falter to the Crimson.  Don't believe that for a second!  Sentimentality aside, their signature "win" is a close loss to Kansas.  If that's what you are looking for, give Charlie Weiss and extension at Notre Dame.  This game is do-or-die, and probably the best game in the country tomorrow.  Of course, unless you live on campus at Cornell, I don't think you'll be able to see it...just check back here for the coverage...


Northwestern @ Michigan State:  Many people on TV and radio suggested the Wildcats need this game to have any chance at the tourney (not true - as my loyal readers know) BUT if they can repeat last year's surprising win at Sparty it does put a HUGE chip in their pile for earning their first ever NCAA bid.  That said, don't dispair when Sparty hammers them.


Kansas @ Kansas State:  The Maniac was one of many who praised the KSU students for staying OFF the court after beating then-number one Texas.  Drop now #1 Kansas?  Have at it guys, have at it.  And while you are at it, dodge the subsequent let down game and you have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 and earning a #2 seed.  For KU, a win here puts them back atop the polls and has them trending towards the #1 overall seed in the tournament.

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New Year's Conference Resolutions: Big Twelve

Here's the second of ten conference installments of some New Year's Resolutions and Prognostications. As always, your dissension is welcomed...

BIG Twelve:

The Big Twelve came into the year as our Playboy Award candidate (conference heaviest up top with a lot of airbrushing below), with Kansas and Texas clearly being a notch above everyone else and quite possibly above the rest of the country.

Having two dominant superpowers rule the roost isn't necessarily a bad thing; see Duke and UNC in the ACC. However, the question loomed, is there any depth beyond the Big Two in this year's Big 12? So far this season, it has looked like there certainly is, and there might possibly be a few Sweet 16 caliber teams lurking around.

Kansas State has to be one of the most pleasant surprises in 2009, racing out to an impressive 12-1 start with wins over Xavier, UNLV, Dayton and Washington State. Baylor has also looked better than expected and should contend for a bid.

Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have amassed some early wins as well and should contend for a bid...though we're not quite ready to label them tourney bound just yet. The only glaring dissapointment thus far has been Oklahoma. We knew there would be an adjustment perios without Blake and Taylor Griffin, but felt confident Willie Warren would be able to hold the rope (particularly with "Tiny" Gallon anchoring it...) So far? Not so good. Not good at all.

Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:

The Good:
Texas looks fantastic, and we have felt solid having them at the top spot in Bracketeering from the season's outset. The 76-70 sleep-walk today against TX-Corpus Christi is understandable; their two games prior were wins over UNC and Michigan State. A letdown was inevitable. Rick Barnes has a few weeks to get them geared up for back-to-backers at Kansas State and at UConn.

Kansas is good. OK, Kansas is real good. After watching them dismantle Temple on the road toady I'm ready to concede this is probably the best team in the country. They have no holes. Sherron Collins is distributing the ball and running the team flawlessly. Xavier Henry is truly playing the "Grant Hill 1991" role on this team. Watching his poise, intelligence fused with blinding athleticism and a feathery touch on the mid range jumper... to me the comparison is accurate and uncanny. Throw in the best back-to-the-basket center in the nation in Alderich and it isn't unreasonable to think they will be unbeaten when the Feb. 8th date with Texas comes rolling around.

Win that one? Yeah...it does get intriguing...

Kansas State is not just good. They are Sweet Sixteen caliber legit. It is tough to put them in a category with the two above, but they seem like tourney locks barring a complete collapse and deserve the separation from the pack..

The Unknown:
Here is where things get a little dicey in the Big 12. Early season performance would seem to merit five to seven (high side) bids come March. The above three are locks. Here's how The Maniac sees it playing out for the remaining bids.

I like the talent and chemistry Scott Drew has working down in Baylor. In 2007 they were the conference's darlings, making an improbable return to respectability and the NCAA tourney. Last year they disappointed under heightened expectations and we were forced to wonder just where this program truly stood. An 11-1 start with wins over Xavier, South Carolina and Arizona State is a good indication the ceiling is high. They have solid guard play with Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn and Udoh gives them a nice presence in the paint. I think Baylor returns to the dance, but it will be an interesting ride.

My conference sleeper is Missouri. Little was expected of the Tigers after losing DeMarre Carroll and three other starters from last year's Elite Eight squad. However, the Tigers are entering league play at 11-3 with some impressive wins under their belt: Old Dominion. Illinois by 13. Georgia by 28. Oregon by 37. Not just the wins, but the margins tell me that the Tigers frenetic style can still be effective, even with personal changes. They are a surprising threat to get back to the NCAA Tournament.

Okahoma State and Texas Tech are the toughest reads. Both have very good records that would likely get them tourney consideration with .500 conference seasons. However, I just don't think either is quite good enough to get on the other side of the bubble. Texas Tech's best win is Washington. Their only other decent win is Stanford. They've lost to Wichita State by 2 and failed their big litmus test last week losing to New Mexico by 15. More troubling is the struggles they've had with team's they are supposed to beat; Oregon State by 4, Stephen F. Austin by 2, McNeese State by one... they just don't seem ready for Big 12 rigors to me.

Ditto for Oklahoma State. Their best win is a 1-pointer over Stanford and a win over a down Utah team. They've lost to the two best teams they've faced; Rhode Island and Tulsa. Exactly the teams they'll be on the Big Board against when the committee has to decide whether to invite a fifth or sixth Big 12 team or reward one of the "have-nots." Those losses tip the scales undeniably in the opposite direction for the 'Pokes.

If a sixth team does get in, I like Texas A&M. The Aggies have slipped off the radar the past few weeks after losses at Washington and New Mexico (by 3- no shame in that loss). They do already own wins over Clemson and Minnesota, two teams that could very likely find themselves in a similar spot come March; 18-19 wins, fifth or sixth place in a power league. Those are good chips in the Ag's favor. They get Texas only once this year and get to host that game in late February. A win over the Horns could punch their dance card.

Oklahoma stays in the "unknown" category, simply because it is still too early to completely write them off. Willie Warren has struggled and it appears as though Jeff Capel is struggling with what to do with the talented Soph. They got hammered on New Year's by Gonzaga in yet another no-show against a quality opponent. They got waxed by VCU, and have losses to UTEP, Houston and San Diego - each more difficult to explain in ascending order. The 1-point win over Northern Colorado and the squeaker with Utah don't inspire much confidence either.

So why are they still above the Maniac's cut line? They still have NBA-level talent; particularly in Warren. And because other than trips to Lawrence and Austin there isn't a game they can't win on that schedule. 10-6 in the Big 12 gets you dancing. It's possible for the Sooners. But they better get it together. And Soon...

Iowa State - Of all the teams near the bottom group, this one is the most disappointing. With Craig Brackens surprising draft experts and deciding to come back to school, some optimism that the Cyclones could return to the tourney for the first time since Tim Floyd had Marcus Fizer and Jamaal Tinsley (and one of the Maniac's faves, Paul Shirley) in uniform began to arise. Three losses in a row dampened things a bid, but when the smoke clears losing to Northwestern (by 2), Northern Iowa (by 3) and at Cal aren't terrible losses. The schedule gives them an opportunity for redemption with a trip to Cameron Indoor and the Dukies...but it is just as likely a stern national showing of how NIT-at-best the 'Clones are in 2010. For the same reason as above with the Sooners, they stay above the cut-line, but they are a distant 10th in my estimation - a true long shot.


The BAD:

Colorado has always seemed a sleeping giant to me. Unfortunately no one woke them up again this year. Perhaps Chauncey Billups has a year of eligibility hiding somewhere... They showed a little fight early, hanging real tough with Gonzaga and Arizona over in Maui. Since then they have been blasted by 15 by Colorado State and by 25 at Tulsa. There is a good chance they are no better than the third or fourth best team in a basketball-light state (Northen Colorado and Denver).

Nebraska seems to pile 10 or 11 non-conference wins up every year. Just enough to keep them in that "if they win 4 of their last 5 they have a bubble shot" discussion every year. We;re not falling for it. They have two solid wins; USC and Tulsa. As a matter of fact, glancing over their resume, I get the feeling if they could just squeeze eight wins out in conference play....

Ah, forget it.

Final Score:
Texas and Kansas are #1 seeds in March. I just can't see anyone closing the gap enough to push either of them out. Kansas State feels like a Top 4 seed as well, and definitely no worse than a solid tourney team. This is the only conference in the country with two legit national champion contenders (Yes, the Big Ten and Big East could. But No one in the stratosphere of KU and UT though.)

It will be a rocky ride on the bubble all year in the middle of the pack. Like many conferences of this high caliber, parity will smack around the pack. That said, I like Baylor, Missouri and A&M to dance. Oklahoma is still a quality sleeper to watch and Oklahoma State and Texas Tech should get in if the can stay north of .500. In doing that, they'd knock off one of the other's above.

The Big 12 should factor no worse than the 4th best RPI conference overall, and most likely Texas and Kansas should push them to #2 or #3. That should be good enough for 6 bids in March, though seven isn't out of the question.

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Wednesday's Highlights

There were a couple interesting games last night, and a few resume building wins. Here's a quick sweep on a few you might have missed.

NIGHT IN REVIEW:

UAB validated it's 8-1 record with an exclamation point win over former C-USA rival Cincinnati. The Maniac took a pretty big swipe across C-USA's bow earlier this week, but readily tips his cap to the Blazers' Wednesday night effort. The 64-47 win places them solidly in at-large consideration with a second place conference finish. It is an especialy big win when considering their other "big" wins were Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Georgia. With only chances against Butler (quality), Virgina and Arkansas (not so much...) remaining before conference play this win will be enormous when the Blazers are thrown up on the big board.

For the Bearcats, it is a disappointing response following a tough double-OT loss to crosstown rival Xavier on Sunday night. For Bearcat fans, there has to be some trepidation following another tourney miss-season that began very similarly to this one. I think the Bearcats are still an NCAA Tourney team, especially as Stevenson blossoms, but things need to get on track quickly. There final two non-conference games are minor tuneups, but the BEast begins soon and appears to be nearly as tough as last year.

Louisville stopped their steep slide with a hammering win over Oral Roberts. Granted, they weren't exactly tacking UNLV 1990, but the 94-57 win is a good sign Pitino's Cards realize they can't look past anyone this season any longer...

Ole Miss continued their daring ways, erasing a ten point deficit in the final five minutes to force OT and earn a 91-81 win over UTEP. The Maniac was also critical of UTEP's early light schedule, but admits to being impressed with them in defeat. Derrick Caracter will add an inside presence that few in C-USA will be able to match.

Don't look now, but the Kevin Coble-less Northwestern Wildcats are putting themselves in fine position to earn the school's first ever NCAA Tourney invite. They are 9-1, with wins over Notre Dame, Iowa State, and NC State. Their lone loss is against a top 15 Butler team that will likely be a top-4 seed come March. If they win their final two non-conference games (Saturday's Stanford game is a tricky one) they can go 8-10 in the loaded Big Ten and get some consideration. 9-9 would make them a near lock.

How about the hammering South Carolina laid on Richmond last night? The Spiders had looked good early this season and felt like a potential sleeper in the A-10. South Carolina, led by Devin Downey in what feels like his twenty second year of eligibilty, are going to have a great opportunity to contend for an at-large bid in the loaded SEC East. The good thing about sharing the East with Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, and Vandy is that all five will get eight opportunities for quality wins.

For Richmond, all is not lost. They still have quality wins over Mississippi State, Old Dominion and Missouri in their hip pocket and their three losses to William & Mary, VCU and the Gamecocks should all be Top 100, if not Top 50 RPI losses in March. It does however make this weekends trip to Gainesville an interesting litmus test of the Spiders' legitimacy.

Finally Oklahoma State rebounded from their humbling loss to Tulsa with a nice 71-70 win over Stanford. The Cardinal have now lost to Kentucky in OT, and Oklahoma State by 1. So someone explain to be the 83-81 loss to Oral Roberts? Regardless, on their good days the Cardinal appear to be strong enough to challenge for third in the Pac 10. And, yes, that is meant more as an insult to the beleaguered Pac-10.

Not too much going on in college hoops tonight. Enjoy the Colts going for 14-0, and a serious, somber RIP to Chris Henry.

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Wednesday's Hidden Gems - There are a TON

Tonight is the culmination of the Big Ten - ACC Challenge, with the conferences knotted at three apiece. However, there is a bevy of quality and intriguing hoops going on in places lesser covered. The Maniac is here to provide a guide to some games worth catching, and some early fine tuning of the Cinderella slipper-worthiness (worthiness is a word, per Seinfeld's "sponge worthiness" episode) across the nation's landscape.

Pitt (-5.5) @ Duquesne: The Maniac liked Duquesne as a sleeper tourney pick out of the improved, balanced Atlantic Ten. Then they went out and lost to Western Carolina, after struggling to a three point win over Arkansas-Monticello. Yep, the famed power Arkansas-Monticello. Not an impressive start. But keep in mind they just got 6'3'' scoring guard Melquan Boldin back this week, giving the four of the five leading scorers from 2008-09 back on the floor.

Meanwhile Pitt has looked impressive, starting 5-1 and playing Texas tough for 32 minutes before capitulating late. The names on the front of the jerseys and the early season results would seem to tilt the scales pretty heavily in Pitt's favor. I still like the Dukes tonight, as the game means just a little bit more for them.

Here's a nice article on the history of the series. Plus, Papa Maniac will appreciate the reflection on the Duquesne glory days...

Siena @ Georgia Tech (-6): Georgia Tech is the only ACC squad not playing in the Challenge this week, but will still get a challenge from the Siena Saints. Siena burst into national consciousness with the Double OT upset of Ohio State in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament last year. They even opened this season ranked in several polls. However they have already lost to both Temple and St. John's; both bubble teams at best.

This looks like a classic case of the long underrated proving to be, um, more "appropriately" rated. Georgia Tech however is a budding beast. Long gone is the 11-18 season of 2008-2009. These Jackets have no intention of sitting out this postseason.

Give me the Jackets to win and cover.

Old Dominion @ Richmond (-3): Another great matchup of small school potential darlings come March. Old Dominion entered the season as the favorite in the undervalued CAA. Richmond is one of the sleepers (behind Xavier and Dayton) to shake up the A-10.

Richmond is 6-1 with wins over Missouri and Mississippi State, and their lone loss to William & Mary (not a bad loss - seriously - click here), Old Dominion has been a little less sharp losing the the same two school Richmond padded their resume against.

However the head-to-head matchup is the true test. If we were playing the who-beat-who game, LeMoyne is better than North Carolina.

That said, I like Richmond in a really intriguing ballgame.

Western Kentucky @ South Carolina (-5.5): South Carolina and Devan Downey entered the season hoping to challenge Kentucky and Tennessee in the SEC East; and expecting to dance in March. They got their doors blown off by Miami and showed the hangover effect, giving up 93 points to Jacksonville in a game they were lucky to win 97-93.

Their next three games will really set the table for how much work they will have to get done in the insanely deep and balanced SEC (no, they are not the best conference, but have less drop off from 3 to 11 than any other league). After this they host Clemson and travel to Richmond. First things first, knock off a twice-defending Sweet 16 participant in the Hilltoppers.

The Hilltoppers have been really disappointing thus far; losing to LSU and Indiana State, and winning by only 4 and 1 vs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee and CS Northridge. Yuck.

South Carolina needs to bring some focus tonight. I think they will, and will win convincingly.

Rhode Island @ VCU (-4): Eric Maynor is gone, but VCU and first-year coach Shaka Smart have no intention of sitting out this year's Big Dance. They have already burried the memory of the loss to Western Michigan with big wins over Oklahoma and Nevada.

Rhode Island was one of the last teams on the outside of the bubble last year. Their early 4-0 start contains little to help remedy that in 2010. Tonight is huge for the Rams. They still have shots against Oklahoma St, Boston College and Providence. They can't afford many losses unless they want to be forced to win the A-10 to dance.

A really good game that most people will miss; give me RI in a close win.

Arkansas @ Oklahoma (-12): Hard to believe how much worse this game is than it sounds like it should be. Oklahoma has struggled mightily learning how to cope with the loss of the Griffin boys. Arkansas is scouring the campus for enough warm bodies to dress. What is this, Hickory High School??

Cover your eyes, and expect Oklahoma to take out a little frustration on the hapless Hogs.

The Maniac takes Willie Warren and the Sooners in a romp.

Oklahoma State (-2.5) @ Tulsa: This is one of the best games of the early season. An no one will get to see it. Except for the kids parents. And Tulsans. (Is that right? Tulsasians? Tulsainians? Can anyone help with this?)

Oklahoma State is has six easy cruising wins. However only the latest against Utah (who boasts losses to ) is evenly remotely relevant. After this, their only "games" before Big 12 play are against Pacific, Stanford and Rhode Island. All decent teams, but the Cowboys have a lot more opportunity for "bad losses" then they do "good wins." They need tonight more than it seems from a distance.

Their is no doubt of the importance of this game for Tulsa. Conference USA has become a one-bid league, more inline with the WCC and MVC than the Big Six. Many experts tabbed Tulsa as the pre-season fave (not us, it is still Memphis by a lot). They enter tonight 5-1, fresh off a loss to Missouri State. Tonight is a must win if they want to entertain notions of an at-large bid. After tonight, their two best remaining non-conference games are Colorado and Nebraska.

A won't put an official pick on this one; it really is a coin-flip to me. That said, I think the MO St. loss is a clear result of looking ahead to tonight and that Tulsa will give them one heck of a battle defending their home court.

These games all tip between 7-8pm EST. It is a fantastic early night for college hoops and one that will be reference back all season long as we begin to sort out RPI's and Power Rankings.

MANIAC'S PICKS (RECAP):
Duquesne +5.5
Georgia Tech -6
Richmond -3
South Carolina -5.5
Rhode Island +4
Oklahoma -12

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Bad and Worse - Saturday's Disatrous Losses

You always hope to write about teams playing their way IN come March, but the more astute observation would be that at least three teams played themselves OUT of the tourney today, with a fat additional handful doing their damndest to do likewise. Here is a quick rundown of the worst and wors-erest (?) performances Saturday:

Maryland - Rest in peace Terps. All goodwill stashed away from last weekend's Carolina thriller was washed away by a loss to conference doormat Virginia. With the plethora of teams snuggling on the bubble, it is hard to imagine a 7-9 ACC team with losses to Morgan State and UVA get the nod.

Cincinnati - Is "deader" a word? The Cats were "dead" after the USF loss this week. TOday's home defeat to Seton Hall makes a home-game in the NIT questionable.

Kentucky - I was joking with Poppa Maniac that the UK-UF game looked like a "play-in" game all season; today was a "play-out" game. I still think Florida is not getting in - and that Auburn would be more deserving of a 4th SEC spot than the Gators (who I really liked a month ago, admittedly...). That said Kentucky went from "bubble" to "Seeking a miracle." The Maniac will put it on record that they won't get it...and instead of a miracle will soon be seeking a head basketball coach.

Not saying ANY of them would TAKE the job, but here is my short list of GREAT FITS:

1. Jay Wright - I was stunned they didn't take a run at him when they settled for Dizzy Gillespie. Wright looks the part, plays the style of hoops that will win him fans in Lexington and would be wise to get out of the hyper-competitive Big East where Villanova is an unlikely perennial Top 4 team.

2. Darrin Horn - I know, I know, I know. He is in year one at South Carolina and has likely led the Gamecocks to a bid (over Kentucky). That said, he is a young, energetic coach who played his prep ball in.... you guessed it, the Bluegrass.

3. Can there be a more ideal fit than Travis Ford?? The gutty, beloved point guard on the 1993 Final Four team has exceeded expectations and has Oklahoma State on the verge of an unlikely tourney bid. He will be an exceedingly hot coaching commodity, and I am not convinced Oklahoma State is a destination job. Suffice it to say, Kentucky would be for Ford.

Come to think of it, I'd lay an even-money wager Ford is coaching the Cats within 15 months.

Ok back to the point - those were my three homicidal coach-killing losses. Here are a few that aren't deadly, but sure as hell made things sticky.

1. Creighton - Getting pasted by 27 in the semis of your 1-bid conference tournament is NOT a real good way to lock up an at-large birth. The Maniac STILL likes the Jays chances, but Creighton better root like hell for Xavier, Butler, Gonzaga during their conference tourneys... and likewise would be wise to root against Ohio State, Maryland, Virginia Tech. Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and St. Mary's...

2. Minnesota -Most experts think the Gophers are still in; the Maniac thinks they better be real nervous and would behoove them to win at least one in the Big Ten tourney. Everyone says "conference affiliation doesn't matter to the selection committee" but I cry foul on that notion. It is going to be tough to get eight Big Ten teams dance cards. Minnesota gets in a crowded spot with Ohio State, Michigan and...

3. PENN STATE - Seriously, all they had to do was beat Iowa and they move to LOCK status. So of course, they lose in OT to the Hawkeyes. At 10-8 in the Big Ten, they are in decent shape, but by no means a LOCK. The first round of the Big Ten tourney is going to be really interesting next week as 5 teams (six actually, don't discount Northwestern) are scrambling for bids.

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The Rhode Less Traveled

Fox Sports and Rivals.com both have Temple as one of their "Last 4 Out" as of today. Lunardi finally downgraded the Owls to off the board. All three have Penn State and Oklahoma State and Dayton "IN."

However, there is a team in the A-10 not listed on anyone's radar that makes a case every bit as compelling as Temple, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Texas A&M and San Diego State, Minnesota and a few others..

Let me introduce you to the Rhode Island Rams. The Rams are currently 21-8, (10-4) and in second place in the underrated Atlantic-10. On the Rams resume are wins over Penn State, Northeastern, VCU, Temple and Dayton. Their losses are all nearly all quality ones; Duke, Xavier, Villanova, Providence, St. Joes, Temple, and Richmond (bad loss). They have won 9 of their last 10, and finish with three winable games to get them to 24-8.

More acclaim should be trapping the Rams...

Rhode Island raises perhaps the most interesting question for committee members; is it all wins, losses and RPI's or does HOW you played the game matter?

The Rams lost early at Cameron Indoor to the Top 10 Dukies 82-79. They had a shot at the buzzer to force overtime that didn't go in. Suffice it to say, not many non-conference foes come as close to leaving Cameron with a win as the Rams did. Two weeks later they suffered their only loss by more than six points, falling by 14 to Villanova. They lost at Providence by 1, at Oklahoma State by 4, at St. Joes by 6, to Xavier by a pair... every game they have played they were in right to the wire.

With the exception of Richmond and St. Joes, every loss was a well-played loss to a tourney-caliber ballclub.

Contrast that with some of the conventional bubble-mates low points:

Penn State, while playing in an admittedly more competitive Big Ten has only a non conference win over Georgia Tech to "brag" about. It is offset by losses to Temple and the aforementioned Rams.

Minnesota has the "signature win" over Louisville, but no other non-conference Top 100 wins. Their conference record is a pedestrian .500. They are 5-7 over their last 12 contests.

Cincinnati is now 8-7 in the mighty Big East, so it is hard to see them not dancing. They got their "signature win" last night over West Virginia (who is really close to back on the bubble at 8-7 in the BEast, but should be fine if they don't stumble to South Florida or DePaul).

Cincy's high points are the West Virginia win and solid wins over UAB and a 2-point win over UNLV. However an unbalanced schedule has aided their +.500 surge in conference. Their conference wins, aside from last night are: DePaul, Notre Dame, St John's (twice), Georgetown (twice) and Rutgers. Not exactly a murder's row.

However, it is not the wins, but rather the WAY they lost that should trouble the committee.

34 points pasting by Marquette, a pair of losses to bubble-mate Providence (by 8, and 9), Florida State by 11, Xavier at home by 10, Memphis by 15, Pitt by 16 and by 21 to Villanova.

So is it "quality losses" or the quality of the loss that matters? If you judge by the latter, it is hard to put the Bearcats ahead of the Rams.

Oklahoma State beat Rhode Island at home by 4 and boast a win over Siena. Their non-conference losses are respectable; Gonzaga by 12, Michigan State by 15 and Washington by 18. All three were on the road; something a mid-major knows all about. Notice how few of Rhode Islands win are at home? Exactly - none of the big boys are going there anytime soon. The Cowboys are 7-6 in the top-heavy Big 12, with their wins coming over Baylor, Texas Tech (twice), Texas A&M, Iowa State, Nebraska and Colorado. They will likely get a chance to determine their own fate as they finish the regular season against Texas, Kansas State and Oklahoma.

Speaking of Kansas State, their non-conference losses were an interesting lot, Kentucky (by 2), Iowa (2) and Oregon (5). It is possible all three are non-tourney invite losses. They have no non-conference wins over Top 100 teams. Their conference slate is similar to OK State - fatten up on the bottom and get full; were it not for the Missouri and Texas wins it is unlikely the Wildcats are even in the discussion.

For the record - the A-10 is not as strong a conference as the Big 12, you'll get no argument here. But using the eyeball test, are Colorado, Iowa State, Nebraska and Texas Tech really any better than Temple, St. Joes, Rhode Island, Duquesne, and the middle of the A-10??

Will the Rams be Dancing in three weeks? Probably no; not unless they win the A-10 Tourney. Should they be? It really depends on how the chips fall. But they absolutely deserve to be in the discussion.

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Conference Christmas Report Card: Big 12

Conference Recap: Big 12

The Big 12 has always had a Playboy physique: immense on top, and trim at the bottom.

This year doesn't seem to be a notable exception, but the meat in the middle is a bit of a surprise. Baylor has been steady as the conference's 3rd best team, suffering their only loss of the season to unbeaten Wake Forest. Texas A&M and Missouri have been pleasant early season surprises, while Kansas has performed admirably reloading after the mass departures from their championship squad.

When you think about it, not a BAD build at all...

The strength of this conference is definitely at the top. Oklahoma looks like one of a small handful of challengers to North Carolina and Blake Griffin has to be the leader for the Naismith Award at the turn. Texas has played a daunting schedule, but has performed well in MOST tests, and looks to be no worse than a second weekend NCAA Tourney team.

The bottom of the conference is not outstanding, but is not terrible either. Oklahoma St and Kansas St. will win some ballgames and look like possible NIT teams. Texas Tech has been disappointing, but even Nebraska, Iowa State and Colorado are not as bad as some leagues bottoms (Big East, Pac-10).

All in all, it's been a pretty good start to the season for the Big 12. Missouri's latest loss to Illinois notwithstanding they still have two elite teams, three more likely tourney teams, and two or three who could make it interesting. That makes the Big 12 one of the deepest conferences in the country.

"Pre" Season Grade: A- (click for game details)

Tourney Outlook:

Locks: Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor
Likely: Kansas, Texas A&M
Hopeful: Missouri
Longshot: Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, Nebraska
Nope: Kansas St, Colorado, Iowa St.

Big 12: Early Season Game Break Down

Not so much a "read and enjoy" post, but a good synopsis of the Big 12's, game by game early season performance.

Hang Your Hat: Marquee Wins

• Oklahoma 87-82 over Purdue (N)
• Texas 68-64 over UCLA
• Texas 67-58 over Villanova (N)

Quality Wins:

• Oklahoma 72-68 over Davidson
• Oklahoma 77-67 over UAB
• Oklahoma 73-72 over USC
• Oklahoma 70-52 over Utah
• Oklahoma 81-70 over VCU
• Texas 68-50 over St. Joe's
• Texas 70-57 over Oregon
• Baylor 72-56 over Providence
• Baylor 87-78 @ Arizona St.
• Baylor 58-52 over Washington St.
• Texas A&M 67-66 over Arizona
• Texas A&M 86-78 @ Alabama
• Texas A&M 72-61 LSU
• Missouri 83-72 over Arizona St. (N)
• Missouri 93-66 over Cal
• Missouri 75-64 over Murray St.
• Kansas 71-59 over Temple
• Kansas 73-54 over Washington
• Nebraska 62-50 over TCU
• Nebraska 71-57 over St. Louis
• Nebraska 54-52 over Creighton
• Texas Tech 77-73 over Mississippi St.
• Texas Tech 72-69 over Wichita St.
• Oklahoma St. 91-73 over Tulsa
• Oklahoma St. 86-82 over Rhode Island
• Kansas St. 69-59 over Cleveland St.
• Kansas St. 66-62 over Rhode Island
• Iowa St. 79-61 over Wisc-Milwaukee
• Iowa St. 63-50 over Oregon St.

Measuring Stick Games:

WINS:

• Oklahoma 87-82 over Purdue (N)
• Texas 68-64 over UCLA
• Texas 67-58 over Villanova (N)
• Oklahoma 87-82 over Purdue (N)
• Oklahoma 87-82 over Purdue (N)

LOSSES:

• Texas 63-67 to Michigan St.
• Texas 81-80 to Notre Dame (N)

Nothing Shameful: Quality Losses

• Texas 63-67 to Michigan St.
• Texas 81-80 to Notre Dame (N)
• Baylor 74-87 to Wake Forest (N)
• Missouri 75-71 to Xavier (N)
• Kansas 81-89 to Syracuse (N)
• Texas Tech 67-80 to Pitt
• Oklahoma St. 71-83 Gonzaga (N)
• Oklahoma St. 79-94 Michigan St. (N)
• Kansas St. 72-74 Kentucky
• Kansas St. 63-65 @ Iowa
• Kansas St. 70-75 @ Oregon
• Iowa St. 63-66 to Drake
• Colorado 62-76 @ Stanford

Stink Bombs:

• Texas A&M 56-67 @ Tulsa
• Kansas 61-60 UMass (home)
• Nebraska 44-64 @Arizona St
• Nebraska 63-64 (home) Oregon St.
• Texas Tech 78-96 @ UTEP
• Texas Tech 79-85 @ Lamar
• Oklahoma St. 65-83 @ Washington
• Iowa St. 59-60 Hawaii
• Iowa St. 57-73 @ Iowa
• Colorado 46-62 TCU