Moving Up and Moving Out - ACC Edition

Welcome to a new feature on March Maniacs called "Moving Up & Moving Out".  Each week we are going to take a look at the biggest movers in what is emerging as one of the most tumultuous seasons in recent memory.  I still defy any expert or pundit to make sense of the ACC.  I really don't think it is possible at this point.

Last week, in my now destroyed Bracketeering Projection, I argued the Top Three teams in the ACC are Duke, Georgia Tech and Clemson.  I still think that is true, particularly after Maryland's loss to Clemson last night.  I'm not as high on Florida State as some others are, and still project them in the NIT.  I wasn't sold on Virginia, but the way they handed Carolina their backside on the home floor (again) seems to tell us something... though which team it tells us more about it debatable.

The ACC is a mess, and I wouldn't wager a dime on a single conference game the rest of the year my waging-minded friends.  That said, here is a quick status check of the many ACC bubblemates.

Moving Up:

Clemson - notched a big win last night over Maryland to move to 4-4 in conference.  Two of their losses are to 5-2 Duke, so winning the ACC is pretty much out of reach.  However those two losses to the Dukies mean their remaining schedule allows them eight league games without facing their nemesis in Durham.  By the end of the year, Clemson wins 10-11 games in league and makes the tournament wearing white jerseys in Round One.


Florida State - Yes, it was Boston College, but any road win in the ACC is a good win.  It pulled the Seminoles to 4-3 in conference and leaves them squarely in the race.

Virginia - What to make of the Cavs?  I still contend that unless they win 11 games in league they will have a tough time making the tourney because of the brutal non-conference losses they sustained.  One could even argue that Virginia's success damages the league's hopes to earn six or seven bids as it devalues the percieved quality of the teams.  All that said, they went into Chapel Hill and beat the hell out of Roy Williams' and his seemingly never-ending parade of McDonald's All-Americans and moved to 4-2 in league play. 

Moving Out:

Miami (FL) - Yes, they finally got a conference win this weekend.  However of the Hurricanes 16 wins, only SIX of them have come against teams in the RPI Top 200.  Let me repeat that.  TOP 200.  Yuck.


Virginia Tech - And of you are team that loses to the aforementioned 'Canes, your stock has to drop a bit.  Coming right on the heels of a good win in Charlottesville, it has to be a particularly deflating loss.  It looks like yet another NIT stop for Seth Greenburg and the Hokies.

North Carolina - What to say about the Tarheels?  This week they fall to 2-4 in league after getting decimated at home by Virginia.  It is one thing to struggle on the road; most conferences do.  It is quite another to be hammered at home in back to back games by Wake Forest and Virginia.  I had the Tarheels as a #7 seed in my first bracket projection.  It has nothing to do with the "name on the jersey", in fact I would argue the Tarheels were slightly undervalued for the exact same reason and heightened scruitiny.

It is getting real hard to argue on Carolina's behalf at this point.  Will they make the tourney?  It seems hard to imagine they can't get that awesome collection of talent steadied, but it seems equally abysmal watching their last two home games.  This week they have two road games; at VA Tech and at Maryland.  They really need to win both to be on decent footing before the following week's visit from the Dukies.

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Weekend Review - ACC Jan 10th

The salvo Georgia Tech fired across Duke's bow Saturday has to resonate leaguewide.  The message?  The ACC is more wide open than it has been in a decade.  Duke loses their road opener and North Carolina has looked incredibly vulnerable in the young season.  I wrote several weeks ago that #3 through #11 this league was as jumbled as any.  Perhaps it should be ammended to #1-#12; i.e. top to bottom.

Clemson handled their homecourt with ease, downing Boston College 72-56.  The win was a nice bounce back for the Tigers after their opening loss in Cameron.  The game of the day was Miami defeating Wake Forest 77-76 at home.  Both teams look like NCAA Tournament teams to me, though there is still a long way to go in a brutal conference slate.  Miami, unranked as of yesterday, is off to a 15-1 start.  Might it be view the Canes as legitimate conference title challengers?

The ACC has long played some of their finer confernce games on Sunday night.  While most people were watching the NFL, Maryland got a huge win, 77-68 over Florida State.  It seems the Terps are annually on the bubble and the non-conference performance leads you to believe it might be more of the same in 2010.  Conference wins will be huge, and it is important to win at home if you want to dance in March.

Carolina pulled away late and got a got win over a better than advertised Virginia Tech ballclub, 78-64.  And speaking of bubble, Seth Greenburg's Hokies are annual staddlers as well.  With Miami and FSU up next, they can ill-afford a 0-3 conference start and will need to knock off one of them.

Lastly, hats off to Virginia.  The Cavs were largely picked last in the preseason but won their opener 70-62 over NC State, on the road no less.  Let's not get hasty booking tourney plans, but it seems that all 12 teams will be capable of winning, and losing, on any night.

Team Up:  Virginia, Maryland, Miami
Team Down:  Boston College, NC State

Week ahead highlights:  Maryland @ Wake (Tues), UNC @ Clemson (Wed), GA Tech @ UNC & VA Tech @ FSU (Sat), Wake @ Duke (Sun)

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Rating Saturday's Top Games

The NFL playoffs start today, and the Maniac's beloved Bengals will host our (yep, I even say "our" like it is possible I'll make a tackle tomorrow) second playoff game in twenty years. As long time tortured season tickets holders, my whole family is super psyched.

That said, there is still some fantastic college hoops worth catching early, or DVR'ing for later.

FIVE STARS:

Purdue @ Wisconsin (1:30 EST - Big Ten Network)

Hardly anyone wins at the Kohl Center other than the Badgers. They have already dispatched a fantastic Duke team there this season, next up they'll try to do the same to the Boilermakers. A win for Wisconsin puts them solidly in the mix to win the Big Ten title and lurches them into the same sentance as Purdue and Michigan State. A win for the Boilers cements them, in my mind, as the clear conference favorite and a huge step towards capturing a #1 seed in March.

FOUR STARS:

Northern Iowa @ Illinois State (4 EST - ESPN)
One of the nation's best kept secrets travels to dangerous Illinois State and perhaps the conference's best player in Osiris Eldridge. The Valley is notorious for beating each other up all season long, preventing two or three teams to seperate from the pack and bolster their at-large chances. Today is an opportunity for Northern Iowa to do just that.

Mississippi @ Mississippi State - The two best teams in the SEC West lock up in a fantastic rival that should be amplified by both teams collective talent level this season. The winner gets an early jump on winning the West.

BYU @ UTEP (9 EST) - This game is a huge feather for both in their at-large profile, though it likely means more to UTEP with BYU a pretty solid lock for March unless they really falter in conference. C-USA is much improved while constant giant Memphis is down. This is the year they might snatch multiple NCAA bids, but it will be competitive with UAB, Houston, Tulsa and Memphis all jockeying. This one is huge for the Miners.

UConn @ Georgetown (Noon, ESPN) - Hard to say this one kills the loser, but it is a good chance to see two of the countries better team; though still very flawed teams, lock horns. Both could use a solid conference win in the uber-competitive BEast. Let's be honest, any game in that conference not involving DePaul, Rutgers, Providence or USF is at least a 3-star game.

Marquette @ Villanova (2 EST) - Marquette could very easily be 3-0 in conference, ranked nationally and be enjoying the media crush that has bestowed upon Pitt this week. Instead, they find theselves in a precarious spot; lose at Nova and they fall to 1-3 and become an early "bubble" candidate...

Wake Forest @ Miami -Two teams that can actually make a claim to being "underrated" despite very good records and playing in the ACC. The winner today can make a good case for being in the Top 15 in the country and gets a valable chip for late season jockeying through the middle of the ACC pecking order.

THREE STARS:

Florida @ Vanderbilt (Noon) - Think Florida's hot start wasn't a bit of a mirage? Vegas has the Gators as seven point dogs to the 'Dores

St John's @ Louisville (Noon) - St John's better get rolling soon or it is yet another empty postseason and bottom half BEast finish.

Niagara @ Siena - Two best MEAC teams go head to head

Duke @ Georgia Tech - great litmus test for the young Jackets

Kansas State @ Missouri - great chance for Mizzou to jump on radar, great chance for Cats to show they deserve a top ten ranking

Ohio State @ Minnesota - looking forward to seeing if Evan Turner is all the way back in a tricky road stop for the Bucks.

Georgia @ Kentucky - always a good rivalry, it will be interesting to see if the Cats play with the killer instinct needed to bury a lesser opponent.

Oklahoma @ Baylor - OK Sooners, you want to stay relevant in 2010, you need to start winning soon. Today at Baylor would be a good start.

Cincinnati @ Seton Hall - Both teams fancy themselves as tourney teams in 2010. The Pirate fall to 0-4 with a loss and will be buried pretty deep. Meanwhile the Cats need the road win to stop their skid and remain at .500 in conference play.

Tulsa @ Houston - A nice chance to get out to the front of C-USA pack in the conference opener.

West Virginia @ Notre Dame - A chance for the Irish to get their first big win of the season, and boy do they really need a few to bolster that resume.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State - Something tells me that only one of the these two teams find themselves on the favorable side of the bubble in ten weeks. A head-to-head win sure never hurts.

Gonzaga @ Portland - A big chance for Portland to get back to relevant. A nice chance for Gonzaga to smack back the uprising and show the WCC who is still boss.

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Big Chance for the Big Ten

It has been widely covered this week how the Big Ten has never beaten the ACC in the Challenge. I found that surprising, given the ACC's recent top-heaviness, but am not stunned. Regardless, this year seems to be the Big Ten's chance to break through.

Here is a guide to this week's games:

MONDAY: Penn State def. Virginia - Not surprising as Penn State is as strong as any 8th or 9th place team in any normal size (BEast excluded) conference in America. It's a good start for the Ten.

TUESDAY: A really good slate of games highlighted by Michigan State's trip to UNC at 9PM (ESPN HD). The undercard isn't bad either with Wake @ Purdue, Northwestern at NC State, Maryland @ Indiana, and Iowa @ Virginia Tech.

I am not sure exactly how the matchups are determined, but Maryland v. Indiana seems an odd mismatch, with IU being figured no higher than 9th (probably 10th or 11th) in the Big Ten. When your predicted finish is lower than the number of teams in the NAME OF YOUR LEAGUE it is not going to be a real banner season. Ditto for Iowa, the only team scraping the bottom with Indiana. Their draw of VA Tech seems a bit ambitious as well.

MANIAC'S PICKS: Purdue, Maryland, VA Tech, Northwestern in a surprise, and North Carolina continuing to haunt Izzo and the Spartans; this time with a nearly entirely new cast...

WEDNESDAY: More great action starts at 7PM with Illinois trying to stabilize a disappointing start with a win at Clemson. Other games in the early going feature Minnesota @ Miami, and Boston College @ Michigan. The late games are two really good ones when Duke tries to do what very few have recently; win at the Kohl Center against the Badgers, and Florida State visiting Evan Turner and the Ohio State Buckeyes.

MANIAC'S PICKS: Clemson, Miami (FL), Michigan, Duke and Ohio State.

FINAL TALLY: ACC gets 'em again, by a close 6-5 margin.

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Big Wins and Damaging Losses

Everything in the final few weeks is under a much closer magnifying glass. There are a few teams who might wish they could have shuffled yesterday's losses into the November mulligan pile.

Bad Losses:

• Miami (FL) all but sealed their NIT fate last night, falling to Florida State 80-67. The Canes join Notre Dame and Georgetown as one of the most disapointing teams in 2009.

• Illinois was starting to gather some momentum as a possible top-4 seed. Last night that came to a clanking halt. Let me emphasize "clank." As in 33 points. Yup, just 33 points. Granted Penn State netted only 38 in what has to be one of the lousier "decent" games of the season.

• Providence wasn't supposed to win at Louisville, but posting another double-digit loss against a formidable foe gives some ammo to the case for leaving out the Friars. One of their only saving graces might be the fact that Georgetown and Notre Dame seemingly refuse to make a late season charge, and the Big East is GOING to get eight teams in...

• Butler dropped another game last night, this time a three point loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Butler peaked in the Top 10, but is looking more like a 10 seed if they don't get it together quickly.

• Someone should volunteer to play defense down in Knoxville. Most people still have the Vols comfortably in the tourney, but they sure are begging the committee to reconsider. Last night they got drubbed 81-65 by Ole Miss to fall to 7-4 in conference. They are 7-7 over their last 14 games overall. The Vols are still in decent shape, but with games still remaining against Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina they can still play themselves out of the tourney.

• Speaking of South Carolina, losing to Mississippi State is not the way to play yourself onto the good side of the bubble. The Gamecocks still have some work to do over the next three weeks.

• Ohio State is the same story; things were looking good until last night's surprising loss to Northwestern. With a few tips and breaks here and there, we wouldn't be talking about Ohio State's bad loss, but perhaps the Wildcats big win. Alas, that was a game the Buckeyes needed to stay in the Big Ten race.

• Perhaps the worst loss of the night was Virginia Tech. The Hokies find themselves in the bubble muddle in the middle of the deep ACC along with Florida State, BC, Miami and Maryland. That made losing to in-state rival Virginia particularly damning for VA Tech.

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Sparty's House

Every time I want to put the Gophers in the elite company of the Big Ten's finest, reality slaps them back down. Michigan State has been shaky of late at home, losing to two conference perreneal doormats, but showed no ill-effects tonight, dismantling visiting Minnesota 76-47. The game was 46-12 at halftime, and the Spartans "eased up" in the last ten minutes.

It is just one of those seasons folks, everything you think you know is wrong. Once you know that, the season makes sense. (notice the Maniac filed no picks the past few days...)

Miami has been one of the most underperforming teams in the nation this year. Tonight they handed Wake Forest their ass by nearly 30. Clemson has looked severly overwhelmed in their two dances with ACC big boys. As I write they lead Duke by 20 in the second half.

And then there is Notre Dame. They have lost their past few "must-wins" making tonight's trip to Cincinnati a true "must-win." After the Bearcats beat them easily tonight, the Big East tournament is looking like the Irish's next true "must win."

Great wins tonight: Cincinnati, Villanova, Michigan State, Utah, Miami and Clemson.

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Tiger Pause - Clemson answers questions with 91-72 rout of Miami

If you are a Clemson fan, you have done this dance before; start strong, rack up 10,11 wins on cupcakes, then get to the ACC season and have the wheels fall off.

In fact, basketball aficionados are so familiar with the Clemson Cupcake Shuffle, that they are just barely sniffing the Top 25 despite being 11-0.

That should change Monday. The Tigers routed Miami, who going into the season was though to be a 2-4 ACC team. Despite a few early season losses, the Canes have hung around the polls enough to constitute the first true test for the Tigers.

The Tigers were led by outstanding guard KC Rivers' 28 points.

Up Next: Clemson: @ S.Carolina (Dec 30th) Miami: @ St. Johns (Dec 27th)