It appears even the BYU Fightin' Fredette's are prone to emotional letdowns.
Riding high after their defeat of San Diego State Thursday night, the Cougars got avalanched and swarmed by media, heaping accolades on the Cougars (but mostly on Jimmer). Today, just 48 hours later, BYU got dropped by New Mexico in an absolute classic trap game.
It's actually a worse loss than it sounds. Yes, The Pit is a historically difficult place to play, but New Mexico really isn't very good this year. They are a long shot for the NIT barring a turn around (and tonight's win is a decent jump start) and have virtually no chance of earning an at-large tourney bid. To make matters worse, San Diego State went into The Pit two weeks ago and emerged unscathed.
Jimmer is still the clubhouse leader for the Naismith Award, and even in a losing effort the nation's scorer didn't disappoint, dropping in 32 points on a respectable 12 of 26 shooting. However any talk of BYU earninga #1 seed is effectively finished with today's loss, and even a #2 seems hopefully optimistic.
Up next for the Jimmer's is a trip to Wyoming followed by next weekend's visit from UNLV in a huge game for the Runnin' Rebs NCAA hopes.
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Showing posts with label New Mexico. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New Mexico. Show all posts
Saturday Selections - The Maniac is Back
Missouri +5.5 @ Texas A&M
The Aggies have one of the best records in the country, but are seriously devoid of many quality wins worth boasting about. They are going to have their hands full with the pressure and relentless scoring attack of the Tigers. I like Mizzou winning outright in College Station, but love them getting 5.5.
Maryland @ Villanova -5.5
How bad is the ACC really?? Today might give us a nice glimpse when the Terps head over to Philly to meet Villanova. The Wildcats are the quietest Top 10 team in the country, with their only loss coming in Knoxville on an afternoon where the Vols shot the lights out. Aside from that, they've been perfect, including wins over Temple, Cincinnati and Louisville. I think Maryland is one of the top three or four teams in the ACC, behind Duke (obviously), North Carolina and then lumped in that middle group with Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech. Keeping that sort of company makes a 5-point spread at 'Nova seem way, way too low. Gimme the Wildcats by double digits.
Georgia +4.5 @ Ole Miss
Georgia has as much talent as any team in the SEC outside of Kentucky. They lost last week to Vandy, but played decently in the game; Vandy is just really good (and has the best player no one knows about, Jeff Taylor). Georgia has played a solid schedule and taken a few lumps, but they are starting to become much better for it and are blossoming into an NCAA Tourney caliber team.
The Bulldogs are significantly better than Ole Miss on a neutral floor - so giving them 4.5 on the road seems too generous to pass up. Gimme UGA in a road win "upset."
UCF @ Southern Miss - 3
Anyone reading this already knows I am an excessively-proud UCF alum. You also have heard me pumping up Southern Miss and Gary Flowers as on of the true sleeper teams and players in the country and someone to watch in March. So today - I have to put my money where my mouth is. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I will be. Gimme the Golden Eagles laying three. I think I just spit up in my mouth a little bit.
New Mexico was one of the surprise teams last season, riding their fantastic MWC conference play to a gaudy record and a #3 seed in the NCAA Tourney. San Diego State fits that identical profile this season, though their sights might be set even a little higher; a #1 seed isn't out of reach. The other difference is Kawhi Leonard, the sophomore forward for the Aztecs, who is a legit NBA first rounder.
The other big factor? New Mexico isn't very good this year. Look at their record and their schedule. A 35 point loss to an abysmal Cal team. A 66-60 loss to Northern Iowa (also down from last season), and last week a loss at Wyoming. How are they basically a pick-em with one of the ten best teams in the country? Is their home court advantage truly that formidable?
I don't know either. Take the Aztecs. I'll make that my lock of the day.
MANIAC'S PICKS: SDSU-1 (lock), So Miss -3, Georgia +4.5, 'Nova -5.5, Mizz +5.5
If the RPI Doesn't Lie...
then here is an interesting perspective on a few teams and their respective tourney prospects and seeding.
Regardless of your opinion on the the RPI rankings, it is part of the formula and logic employed by the committee come Selection Sunday. While many factors of the RPI are beyond a team's control; for example Cornell has fallen from 25th to 49th over the past two weeks due to their weakening schedule strength as they wade through Ivy League play. Nevermind the fact they are treating their league foes like the UConn Women, the RPI still drops. However, many factors are controlable, a reality not lost among saavy mid-major schedulers.
Of course it helps if your league goes out and picks up some marquee wins in the pre-conference season. The A-10 currently has six teams in the RPI's Top 50, four of them in the Top 30. Wins over teams like Villanova, Cincinnati, Florida, Louisville, Old Dominion, VCU, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Mississippi State do wonders to raise the league's overall profile. Then, once the in-league attrition begins, as long as your top teams lose only to each other, very little damage is done.
Compare this conversely with what has occurred in the Pac-10. Their pre-conference struggles were well publicized. It is reflected in the RPI. Cal is the first to appear at 26th. Washington is next at 55th, behind teams like William & Mary, Northeastern and San Diego State. Is there any wonder the A-10 is talking six bids while out west they are hoping someone other than Cal wins the tourney so they might get two?
Here's a few RPI's worth noting as we enter the final month stretch run:
RPI's that Help:
Northern Iowa (13th): Most people have the Panthers projected between a 7-9 seed. Their RPI seems to suggest otherwise. The precedent is there too; several years ago the committee awarded a two-loss Drake team a #5, despite playing a lesser schedule than No. Iowa this season.
New Mexico (10th): Think Steve Alford's Lobos have a BIG game with UNLV this week? If New Mex was to win out (unlikely) you could be looking at an unprecedentedly high seed for the Mountain West; as high as a #2. Realistically the Lobos will lose a game or two, but can still expect to fall in the top four seed lines in March.
Rhode Island (13th): I think this one is a little bit of fool's gold, buoyed slightly by their scant loss total (just three) and the strength of the A-10. They have a gang of "OK" wins, but lack the Top 25 headliner needed to crack to Top 4 seed lines. They host Richmond tomorrow night, and still have a trip to Temple to make. Their best wins are Boston College, Northeastern, Oklahoma State and Dayton. It is unlikely to expect the Rams any higher than a seven or eight unless they win out.
Richmond (30th): Staying in the A-10, many pundits have Richmond on the bubble. I say look at their quality wins and RPI. This team is a lock barring a late collapse. They have wins over Florida, Temple, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State. Their losses are ALL road losses: Wake Forest, William & Mary, VCU, South Carolina and two in conference. Their closing schedule is tough; they still have trips to URI, Xavier and Charlotte, but the Spiders are in position where they can lose two of three and still get in the Dance.
Texas Tech (32nd): This is an interesting one, as no one has the Red Raiders even on the bubble. Most have them eight or ninth in a six-bid max Big 12. So how are they so high? It would be a nearly unprecedented anomaly for a team from a power conference with an RPI of 32 to NOT recieve a bid, but Tech is a good illustration of the most significant flaw of the RPI system. They have a good record against the RPI Top 50-100 (3-0) and even better against RPI 100-200 (7-0). The problem? They are 1-7 against the Top 50, with nary a quality win outside of UTEP, Washington and Oklahoma State. Oddly enough, if Washington can get rolling and UTEP stays hot, it will be hard to exclude Tech IF (and a huge IF here, they are currently 3-5) they can get to .500 in Big 12 play.
Siena (31st): The Saints are 14-0 in MEAC play. With an RPI at 31, many a team on the bubble will be rooting for them in the MEAC Tourney. They are dancing either way. If they fall in the MEAC, they are taking one of the big boys off the bubble with them.
Wichita State (37th): The Shockers strong RPI make it possible for the Valley to sneak two teams into the Dance, but they better not leave too much to chance by leaving any more wins on the table. It really depends on how many bubble busters occur in conference tournaments, provided the Shockers can't capture their own.
Virginia (94th): The Cavs better win 11 in ACC play (possible, they are 5-3) otherwise the early losses and brutal RPI keep them on the sidelines come tourney time. None of this diminishes the job Tony Bennett is doing in Charlottesville though.
Mississippi St (70th): The SEC in general isn't getting a lot of help from the RPI. It isn't as bad as last year, but the message remains the same - if you want six or seven bids you are going to have to beat people outside of your conference. I'm not sure Mississippi State can rebound enough to make the tourney, with the SEC West so devoid of opportunities for quality wins. They better knock of Kentucky when the Cats come to Starkville.
Notre Dame (61st): Remember the column about the pathetic scheduling efforts of the Irish this year? THIS is when it comes back to bite you in the ass. With no quality wins to seperate themselves, they are forced to not just stay even with Cincinnati, UConn and Marquette; they have to finish clearly ahead of them. That might be asking a bit too much this season.
Tulsa (62nd): An RPI of 62 pretty much sinks your at-large chances, particularly when two teams from your mid-major league (UAB, UTEP) are making strong claims for bids. The Golden Hurricane get a chance to make their RPI moot with a trip to Cameron Indoor later this month.
RPI's that Really Don't Matter:
Ohio State (37th): The RPI could care less about Evan Turner's back... but the Committee will. Finish with 11 or 12 wins in the Big Ten and the Bucks will earn a Top 4 seed.
Illinois (72nd): RPI can't measure what a win in the Kohl Center is worth. The committee can. At 9-3 in Big Ten play, barring a collapse the Illini are going to the Dance. Add in wins over Clemson and Vandy, and factor in that all four non-conference losses were to Top 100 teams and by three or less points. Throw the RPI completely out the window for Illinois, they are dancing.
Regardless of your opinion on the the RPI rankings, it is part of the formula and logic employed by the committee come Selection Sunday. While many factors of the RPI are beyond a team's control; for example Cornell has fallen from 25th to 49th over the past two weeks due to their weakening schedule strength as they wade through Ivy League play. Nevermind the fact they are treating their league foes like the UConn Women, the RPI still drops. However, many factors are controlable, a reality not lost among saavy mid-major schedulers.
Of course it helps if your league goes out and picks up some marquee wins in the pre-conference season. The A-10 currently has six teams in the RPI's Top 50, four of them in the Top 30. Wins over teams like Villanova, Cincinnati, Florida, Louisville, Old Dominion, VCU, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Mississippi State do wonders to raise the league's overall profile. Then, once the in-league attrition begins, as long as your top teams lose only to each other, very little damage is done.
Compare this conversely with what has occurred in the Pac-10. Their pre-conference struggles were well publicized. It is reflected in the RPI. Cal is the first to appear at 26th. Washington is next at 55th, behind teams like William & Mary, Northeastern and San Diego State. Is there any wonder the A-10 is talking six bids while out west they are hoping someone other than Cal wins the tourney so they might get two?
Here's a few RPI's worth noting as we enter the final month stretch run:
RPI's that Help:
Northern Iowa (13th): Most people have the Panthers projected between a 7-9 seed. Their RPI seems to suggest otherwise. The precedent is there too; several years ago the committee awarded a two-loss Drake team a #5, despite playing a lesser schedule than No. Iowa this season.
New Mexico (10th): Think Steve Alford's Lobos have a BIG game with UNLV this week? If New Mex was to win out (unlikely) you could be looking at an unprecedentedly high seed for the Mountain West; as high as a #2. Realistically the Lobos will lose a game or two, but can still expect to fall in the top four seed lines in March.
Rhode Island (13th): I think this one is a little bit of fool's gold, buoyed slightly by their scant loss total (just three) and the strength of the A-10. They have a gang of "OK" wins, but lack the Top 25 headliner needed to crack to Top 4 seed lines. They host Richmond tomorrow night, and still have a trip to Temple to make. Their best wins are Boston College, Northeastern, Oklahoma State and Dayton. It is unlikely to expect the Rams any higher than a seven or eight unless they win out.
Richmond (30th): Staying in the A-10, many pundits have Richmond on the bubble. I say look at their quality wins and RPI. This team is a lock barring a late collapse. They have wins over Florida, Temple, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State. Their losses are ALL road losses: Wake Forest, William & Mary, VCU, South Carolina and two in conference. Their closing schedule is tough; they still have trips to URI, Xavier and Charlotte, but the Spiders are in position where they can lose two of three and still get in the Dance.
Texas Tech (32nd): This is an interesting one, as no one has the Red Raiders even on the bubble. Most have them eight or ninth in a six-bid max Big 12. So how are they so high? It would be a nearly unprecedented anomaly for a team from a power conference with an RPI of 32 to NOT recieve a bid, but Tech is a good illustration of the most significant flaw of the RPI system. They have a good record against the RPI Top 50-100 (3-0) and even better against RPI 100-200 (7-0). The problem? They are 1-7 against the Top 50, with nary a quality win outside of UTEP, Washington and Oklahoma State. Oddly enough, if Washington can get rolling and UTEP stays hot, it will be hard to exclude Tech IF (and a huge IF here, they are currently 3-5) they can get to .500 in Big 12 play.
Siena (31st): The Saints are 14-0 in MEAC play. With an RPI at 31, many a team on the bubble will be rooting for them in the MEAC Tourney. They are dancing either way. If they fall in the MEAC, they are taking one of the big boys off the bubble with them.
Wichita State (37th): The Shockers strong RPI make it possible for the Valley to sneak two teams into the Dance, but they better not leave too much to chance by leaving any more wins on the table. It really depends on how many bubble busters occur in conference tournaments, provided the Shockers can't capture their own.
RPI's that Hurt:
Virginia (94th): The Cavs better win 11 in ACC play (possible, they are 5-3) otherwise the early losses and brutal RPI keep them on the sidelines come tourney time. None of this diminishes the job Tony Bennett is doing in Charlottesville though.
Mississippi St (70th): The SEC in general isn't getting a lot of help from the RPI. It isn't as bad as last year, but the message remains the same - if you want six or seven bids you are going to have to beat people outside of your conference. I'm not sure Mississippi State can rebound enough to make the tourney, with the SEC West so devoid of opportunities for quality wins. They better knock of Kentucky when the Cats come to Starkville.
Notre Dame (61st): Remember the column about the pathetic scheduling efforts of the Irish this year? THIS is when it comes back to bite you in the ass. With no quality wins to seperate themselves, they are forced to not just stay even with Cincinnati, UConn and Marquette; they have to finish clearly ahead of them. That might be asking a bit too much this season.
Tulsa (62nd): An RPI of 62 pretty much sinks your at-large chances, particularly when two teams from your mid-major league (UAB, UTEP) are making strong claims for bids. The Golden Hurricane get a chance to make their RPI moot with a trip to Cameron Indoor later this month.
RPI's that Really Don't Matter:
Ohio State (37th): The RPI could care less about Evan Turner's back... but the Committee will. Finish with 11 or 12 wins in the Big Ten and the Bucks will earn a Top 4 seed.
Illinois (72nd): RPI can't measure what a win in the Kohl Center is worth. The committee can. At 9-3 in Big Ten play, barring a collapse the Illini are going to the Dance. Add in wins over Clemson and Vandy, and factor in that all four non-conference losses were to Top 100 teams and by three or less points. Throw the RPI completely out the window for Illinois, they are dancing.
Tuesday Quick Picks - Jan 5th, 2010
Tough night last night as we went 1-2. Tonight we redeem ourselves with a few winners... hopefully. I always say if you want to make money picking college hoops, do it before Chirstmas before the lines catch up and before conference play. Once conference play kicks off it is like the NFL; everyone can play and recruit on a fairly similar level and the teams know each other really well.
That said, let's get to it.
Rhode Island -1.5 @ Akron - Hopefully we haven't sufficiently curse the Rams yet...otherwise this jumps out at me as the line of the night. Rhode Island is good. Akron isn't. Sometimes picking games really is that simple.
Georgia Tech -5.5 @ Georgia - Yeah, I know it's a rivalry game. That said Georgia Tech is significantly better at nearly every position on the floor tonight. I like the Jackets in what is becoming our dangerous precident of picking road favorites...
New Mexico @ San Diego St +4 - New Mexico, along with BYU is the class of the solid MWC this year. However, the Lobos have played an absolutly draining stretch against quality opponents and have came up big in all of them to get thrust into the national spotlight. I think the constant pressure takes a toll on the road against a similarly NCAA-hopefully Aztec squad. This is by far the best game of the night, even though hardly anyone will see it.
Maniac's Record 30-25-1 ATS
That said, let's get to it.
Rhode Island -1.5 @ Akron - Hopefully we haven't sufficiently curse the Rams yet...otherwise this jumps out at me as the line of the night. Rhode Island is good. Akron isn't. Sometimes picking games really is that simple.
Georgia Tech -5.5 @ Georgia - Yeah, I know it's a rivalry game. That said Georgia Tech is significantly better at nearly every position on the floor tonight. I like the Jackets in what is becoming our dangerous precident of picking road favorites...
New Mexico @ San Diego St +4 - New Mexico, along with BYU is the class of the solid MWC this year. However, the Lobos have played an absolutly draining stretch against quality opponents and have came up big in all of them to get thrust into the national spotlight. I think the constant pressure takes a toll on the road against a similarly NCAA-hopefully Aztec squad. This is by far the best game of the night, even though hardly anyone will see it.
Maniac's Record 30-25-1 ATS
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Worth a Second Look
We chronicled the litany of fantastic games on slate last night, and ran out of room before even tackling the late block. Here's a quick rundown on some of last night's interesting and impactful results.
There is real trouble brewing in Berkley. Cal's MSG losses to Ohio State and Syracuse were unimpressive, yet still understandable. Both of those teams are among the best in the country. ast night's 86-78 loss to New Mexico is cause for concern. New Mexico is 7-0 and a solid MWC team, but the Pac-10 has really struggled in the early going and this is yet another ding to the reputation and Cal's post-season resume. Could we be looking at this year's Notre Dame??
Gonzaga is tough. They trailed most of the way against in-state rival Washington State (6-0), but Matt Boldin and Co. fought back for the 74-69 win. First year coach Kevin Bone's Cougars almost did what his Portland State team did last year; knock off the Zags IN the Kennel.
Speaking of Portland State, what an enormous win for the Vikings last night, clipping newly ranked in-state rival Portland. Portland's coach said he wanted to see how they responded to the newly earned attention and acclaim... Um, might want to close your eyes for this one. They got dropped by the 2-4 Vikings by 18 points.
Lastly, the two best games of the night that nearly no one saw - Duquesne closed down the "Igloo" in memorable; if not gut-wrenching, fashion. The Dukes had the ball in a tie game with 9 seconds to go, and fumbled the ball out of bounds unguarded. They held on to force overtime...then a second one...but Pitt finally prevailed by nine in double OT. The Maniac wonders why they got so scared to attack the hoop once overtime arrived...it is a game they should have won.
The other, another double OT thriller with UNLV clipping Arizona 74-72. UNLV is a likely tourney team, and Arizona could have really used the win, especially with their brutal schedule continuing to churn on. The Cats are only 4-3, but anyone who has seen them play has to be impresses with the jobs Nic Wise and new coach Sean Miller are doing in Tuscon.
There is real trouble brewing in Berkley. Cal's MSG losses to Ohio State and Syracuse were unimpressive, yet still understandable. Both of those teams are among the best in the country. ast night's 86-78 loss to New Mexico is cause for concern. New Mexico is 7-0 and a solid MWC team, but the Pac-10 has really struggled in the early going and this is yet another ding to the reputation and Cal's post-season resume. Could we be looking at this year's Notre Dame??
Gonzaga is tough. They trailed most of the way against in-state rival Washington State (6-0), but Matt Boldin and Co. fought back for the 74-69 win. First year coach Kevin Bone's Cougars almost did what his Portland State team did last year; knock off the Zags IN the Kennel.
Speaking of Portland State, what an enormous win for the Vikings last night, clipping newly ranked in-state rival Portland. Portland's coach said he wanted to see how they responded to the newly earned attention and acclaim... Um, might want to close your eyes for this one. They got dropped by the 2-4 Vikings by 18 points.
Lastly, the two best games of the night that nearly no one saw - Duquesne closed down the "Igloo" in memorable; if not gut-wrenching, fashion. The Dukes had the ball in a tie game with 9 seconds to go, and fumbled the ball out of bounds unguarded. They held on to force overtime...then a second one...but Pitt finally prevailed by nine in double OT. The Maniac wonders why they got so scared to attack the hoop once overtime arrived...it is a game they should have won.
The other, another double OT thriller with UNLV clipping Arizona 74-72. UNLV is a likely tourney team, and Arizona could have really used the win, especially with their brutal schedule continuing to churn on. The Cats are only 4-3, but anyone who has seen them play has to be impresses with the jobs Nic Wise and new coach Sean Miller are doing in Tuscon.
Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com
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