Can Penn State Make the Tourney?

Penn State struck again today.  This time the victim was #15 Wisconsin.  It is the third time in two weeks the Nittany Lions have knocked off a Top 25 opponent.  The question after the first upset was "how the heck did that happen?"  After the second it was, "can that really happen again?"

After the third, the question is now, "can Penn State actually make the NCAA Tournament?!?"

The answer is short, but not so simple; "probably not."

Even with the win today the Nittany Lions are still only 12-8, 5-4 in Big Ten play.  The dug themselves a pretty deep early hole with losses to Maine (ouch), Mississippi (less bad, but still 'ouch'), and a humiliating 62-39 loss to Maryland.

Taking a look at the Lions remaining schedule, let's assume they need to get to 18 wins (minimum) and then win at least one game in the conference tournament to merit at-large consideration.  That means they need AT LEAST six wins in their remaining contests.

Up next for Penn State is a tough trip to Illinois, followed by a visit from Michigan and a trip to Michigan State.  In all reality if they fail to get two of those three, it is probably curtains for the Nittany Lions.

Let's assume for arguement's sake they do pick up the two wins they need.  They would then need to steal four wins from the following list:  Northwestern, Minnesota, @Wisconsin, @Northwestern, Ohio State and @Minnesota.  They will likely be underdogs in five of those six games (possibly favored at home against Minnesota but not likely).

It's a very tough road ahead to Talor Battle and the Nittany Lions, but my best bet is they fall about one or two wins short and are left wondering what could have been... they are literally two plays away from being in the midst of a six game winning streak with five wins over ranked opponents.  Ohio State needed a late defensive stop to eek out a three point win at home, and Purdue beat the Lions on a baseline jumper at the buzzer, 63-62.  Win even one of those games, and the situation looks dramatically different.

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The Penn is Almost Mightier

Penn State failed to knock off their third consecutive ranked opponent, getting bested 69-66 by the undefeated and likely new #1, Ohio State Buckeyes, but the Nittany Lions have defintely opened some eyes in Big Ten country.

Penn State fell to 10-7 overall, 3-3 in Big Ten play, and have very little chance of playing in the post-season, however they are serving as a clear indication of just how deep and competitive the Big Ten is in the final year before becoming the twelve-team "Big Ten."

Battle has kept PSU surprisingly competitive

Senior Talor Battle has been valiant, averaging a conference best 20.9 ppg, despite the intense focus he attracts from every opponent they face. In a conference with Jared Sullinger, David Lighty, Demetri McCamey, Kalin Lucas, John Lueur, E'Twan Moore and JuJuan Johnson cracking first team All-Conference might be a tall order, but Battle certainly merits some strong consideration.  Since being pummeled early in the season by Mississippi and Maryland, the Nittany Lions have been competitive in every contest, losing by no more than eights points in any of their five other losses.  Battle has been the primary reason why.

The Big Tem schedule offers very few "off" nights.  As tough an opponent as Penn State has been, they are still no better than eighth or ninth in the eleven team league.  Up next they begin a brutal four game stretch that includes tips to Purdue and Illinois, as well as a visit from Wisconsin.  It's unlikely they'll fare any better than 1-3, however given their recent play, it's hard to count them completely out of any contest.  The Big Ten's elite have certainly been served notice that the Nittany Lions are no longer an easy win.

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New Year's Conference Resolutions: Big Ten

Here's the first of ten conference installments of some New Year's Resolutions and Prognostications. As always, your dissension is welcomed...

BIG TEN:

The Big Ten had all the makings of the best conference in the country heading into the season. Legit Final Four contenders? Purdue & Michigan State. National Player of the Year candidate? Evan Turner of Ohio State more than fit the bill. Tons of tourney caliber teams? Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State & Minnesota all were ranked preseason, with Wisconsin entering shortly after beating Duke early. Penn State was fresh off their NIT championship and Northwestern was entertaining dreams of their first ever NCAA tourney appearance. Heck, optimism was even high down in Bloomington with the rebuilding Hoosiers.

So what happened?

Michigan State got routed by North Carolina, Texas and lost to middling Florida. Ohio State lost Evan Turner to a broken back (amazing as it sounds, he will likely be back this season), Minnesota has struggled on the court and off, Michigan has been a disaster and Illinois has been disappointing. Penn State may not even be good enough to get back to the NIT to defend their crown and Indiana will need another year of rebuilding before being relevant.

In short, the Big Ten's shortfalls continue to glare compared to the bright lights of the Big East, ACC and Big 12 for yet another year.

Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:

The Good:
Purdue looks fantastic, and a legit contender to get to Indy. I can't see them any lower than a #2 or #3 seed come March, and I wouldn't bet against a #1 (the win over WVU in the hip pocket). They have good veteran leadership and much like Florida 2006-07, a fantastic understanding of their individuals roles within the team construct.

I'd never bet against Tom Izzo and Michigan State in March. They do it every year, and have more than enough talent to get back to yet another Final Four.

If Ohio State gets back a healthy Even Turner they can be a real sleeper. I thought they were a legit third contender to win the Big Ten before the injury, and are of course a completely different team without him. Unfortunately Turner might return a little too late to salvage a decent seed.

I like Wisconsin's chances getting back to the dance as well. Every year Wisconsin is supposed to be down. Every year Bo Ryan's Badgers defend on the court, defend their home court, and defend their NCAA consecutive appearance streak. It's going to happen again this year.

The Unknown:
Tubby has had a tumultuous off season with his Minnesota Gophers and a rough November. Consecutive losses to Portland, Texas A&M and Miami dropped them off the national radar and left them with only a quality win over Butler for the resume. They are 10-3 and healthy and poised to make a run. I think Tubby's Gophers get it going and finish a solid 5th.

I'm not sure what to make of Illinois. My gut feeling is they are on the outside looking in come March. They've lost to Bradley, a bad Georgia team and a terrible Utah club. Those are going to be tough losses to overcome without ten wins in conference. The opening win over Northwestern helps, but I think they come up short.

Speaking of Northwestern, the Wildcats made their first appearance in the Top 25...and promptly followed it up with a loss to the Illini. Sentiment has me pulling for the Wildcats. Logic tells me they come up just a bit short...again. Check out the upcoming schedule: @ Mighigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, @Ohio State, Illinois, @Minnesota, @Michigan State. Wow. Win even three of these and we'll talk tourney. Find me three games they will be favored in on that slate...

Penn State is a major disappointment to me. The Nittany Lions and Talor Battle just haven't conjured up the magic this year. Early losses to Tulane and NC Wilmington put a ton of pressure on them to go over .500 in conference. It ain't happenin'

Michigan remains the biggest enigma. They are easily tourney-talented. Then the lose their opener to Indiana. Not a way to statr if you have serious aspirations in March. They are 6-6 with a bad loss to Utah and questionable losses to Alabama and Indiana. That leaves a lot of work to do in Ann Arbor. And fast.

The BAD:
Indiana is at least worth watching this year. They play well at home and will likely pick up a handful of conference wins this year. The loss of Maurice Creek hurts, and it is tough to see this young Hoosier team winning many on the road. After all, surprising wins over Pitt and Michigan aside, this is a team that lost to Boston U, George Mason and Loyola (Md). No postseason this year, but the future is bright in Bloomington.

Um, not so much in Iowa. The Hawkeyes are terrible. They've lost to Texas-San Antonio, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Duquesne...and they are going to lose to every single team in the Big Ten at least once.

Final Score:
Purdue, Michigan State are Top 4 seeds. Ohio State gets Turner back in time to get in, Wisconsin and Minnesota earn bids.

Michigan and Illinois spend a rocky few weeks on each side of the bubble. I think the Wolverines get it together just in time to slip in as the 6th Big Ten team while Illinois joins Northwestern in NIT.

Penn State, Indiana and Iowa - make early March tee times.

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Bad and Worse - Saturday's Disatrous Losses

You always hope to write about teams playing their way IN come March, but the more astute observation would be that at least three teams played themselves OUT of the tourney today, with a fat additional handful doing their damndest to do likewise. Here is a quick rundown of the worst and wors-erest (?) performances Saturday:

Maryland - Rest in peace Terps. All goodwill stashed away from last weekend's Carolina thriller was washed away by a loss to conference doormat Virginia. With the plethora of teams snuggling on the bubble, it is hard to imagine a 7-9 ACC team with losses to Morgan State and UVA get the nod.

Cincinnati - Is "deader" a word? The Cats were "dead" after the USF loss this week. TOday's home defeat to Seton Hall makes a home-game in the NIT questionable.

Kentucky - I was joking with Poppa Maniac that the UK-UF game looked like a "play-in" game all season; today was a "play-out" game. I still think Florida is not getting in - and that Auburn would be more deserving of a 4th SEC spot than the Gators (who I really liked a month ago, admittedly...). That said Kentucky went from "bubble" to "Seeking a miracle." The Maniac will put it on record that they won't get it...and instead of a miracle will soon be seeking a head basketball coach.

Not saying ANY of them would TAKE the job, but here is my short list of GREAT FITS:

1. Jay Wright - I was stunned they didn't take a run at him when they settled for Dizzy Gillespie. Wright looks the part, plays the style of hoops that will win him fans in Lexington and would be wise to get out of the hyper-competitive Big East where Villanova is an unlikely perennial Top 4 team.

2. Darrin Horn - I know, I know, I know. He is in year one at South Carolina and has likely led the Gamecocks to a bid (over Kentucky). That said, he is a young, energetic coach who played his prep ball in.... you guessed it, the Bluegrass.

3. Can there be a more ideal fit than Travis Ford?? The gutty, beloved point guard on the 1993 Final Four team has exceeded expectations and has Oklahoma State on the verge of an unlikely tourney bid. He will be an exceedingly hot coaching commodity, and I am not convinced Oklahoma State is a destination job. Suffice it to say, Kentucky would be for Ford.

Come to think of it, I'd lay an even-money wager Ford is coaching the Cats within 15 months.

Ok back to the point - those were my three homicidal coach-killing losses. Here are a few that aren't deadly, but sure as hell made things sticky.

1. Creighton - Getting pasted by 27 in the semis of your 1-bid conference tournament is NOT a real good way to lock up an at-large birth. The Maniac STILL likes the Jays chances, but Creighton better root like hell for Xavier, Butler, Gonzaga during their conference tourneys... and likewise would be wise to root against Ohio State, Maryland, Virginia Tech. Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and St. Mary's...

2. Minnesota -Most experts think the Gophers are still in; the Maniac thinks they better be real nervous and would behoove them to win at least one in the Big Ten tourney. Everyone says "conference affiliation doesn't matter to the selection committee" but I cry foul on that notion. It is going to be tough to get eight Big Ten teams dance cards. Minnesota gets in a crowded spot with Ohio State, Michigan and...

3. PENN STATE - Seriously, all they had to do was beat Iowa and they move to LOCK status. So of course, they lose in OT to the Hawkeyes. At 10-8 in the Big Ten, they are in decent shape, but by no means a LOCK. The first round of the Big Ten tourney is going to be really interesting next week as 5 teams (six actually, don't discount Northwestern) are scrambling for bids.

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The Dirty Forty

OK - Let's start with an explanation of this column, which will be a running feature through the last week of the regular season and conference tournaments.

The theory behind it is that there are essentially 40 spots available for the NCAA tournament. There are 34 at-large bids, and 6 BCS conferences, which in all probability will feature a conference tournament champion who would have earned an at-large bid anyway (I know, not always, look at Georgia last year... but also look at the last 20 years - back off dude.)

The reason for this article, I think many of our readers will find it interesting how LITTLE room there is for all the teams that are conventionally thought of as "in." By my calculation, there are 29 LOCKS, with another 4 or 5 pretty close to that category. That leaves only 5 or 6 bids truly in play this week.

Running through this list, based on your instinct and what you hear on TV and broadcasts, say out loud (unless you are at work, then just think your answer dumbass, and get some damn work done and dig our economy out of the toilet...) whether the following teams are IN or OUT.

Florida.
Providence.
Penn State.
Michigan.
Maryland.
Arizona.
St Mary's.
Boston College.
UNLV.
Utah State.
Minnesota.
Virginia Tech.
West Virginia.
Dayton.
Oklahoma State.
Texas.
Wisconsin.
Siena.
Davidson.
Texas A&M.
New Mexico.
Rhode Island.
Kentucky.

Well, if you said YES more than 10 times, there is NOWHERE to put them; unless you and Jim Boeheim want to expand the field.

And for the record, the Maniac did include Syracuse in the 29 LOCKS...

OK, onto Tha' FORTY:

Locks (in alphabetical conference order):
North Carolina, Duke, Wake, Clemson, Florida State,
XAVIER, UConn, Pitt, LVille, Marquette, 'Nova, Syracuse,
Michigan St, Purdue, Illinois,
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri,
MEMPHIS, BUTLER, CREIGHTON,
Washington, Ucla, Arizona St, Cal,
Lsu, Tennessee, Byu, Utah

That makes 29. Those in ALL CAPS are likely or possible 1-bid conferences; losing their tournament SHRINKS the 40 by one slot. So if, say, Butler were to lose, it becomes "39." You get the point... And YES, Creighton is a lock. NO, Siena and Utah State are not.

Very Likely (in order of solidity in field):
West Virginia, Texas, Penn State, UNLV, Dayton

And then there were SIX: (random order, but try to choose five from this list!!)
Providence, Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Rhode Island, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Northwestern, Arizona, Siena, South Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, Auburn, St. Mary's, Davidson, Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State.

If you are counting, that was pick six out of 23. It is not as easy as Vitale and Hubert Davis make it seem (by last count, both have 417 teams in this year's field).

I'll give you the Maniac Six tomorrow evening, with justification for each, please feel free to fire your arguments (and YOUR SIX) my way, or leave them as comments at the bottom of the entry. Just to get you started, St. Mary's and Arizona are on my list.

THE WHY'S:
For the five "almost ins" - Texas and West Virginia are pretty much no-brainers, but need to not have anything too too crazy happen like Oklahoma State or Providence go on a huge run in their respective conference tourneys and zip past them, or have a slew of disastrous small conference upsets. Both those two are pretty much locks. Which would make 31 now...

Penn State closes with Iowa; assuming they win that they will be 22-9 (11-7) and a solid 4th in the Big Ten. That gets you a dance card.

UNLV and Dayton have good records, play in undervalued leagues, but most importantly have marquee wins. Dayton has wins over Marquette, Xavier and an Auburn win that looks better every day. They close with a tricky game hosting Duquesne, and would feel much safer with that win secured and a win or two in the conference tourney, (especially with Rhode Island surging), but for now they are safely in the #8-#10 seed range.

UNLV has the BYU and Utah wins. but most importantly a win over Arizona and a road win over possible #1 seed Louisville in their hip pocket. That said the Rebels would be wise not to lose to San Diego State Saturday night...

That's 34. Let's say just THREE small-conference upsets or miracle runs happen. You then have THREE spots for the above 22 bubble mates.

Gotta love March!

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Battle-ing Their Way In

The Maniac was typing up a nice obituary for Ed DeChellis and his pleasantly surprising Nittany Lions when a funny thing happened against Illinois. No, not the 38-33 knee-slapper like last time, this time something genuinely entertaining and aesthetically pleasing; the Nittany Lions roared back.

Despite a few tough calls that went against them, Penn State hung around and hung around. Even after falling behind by double digits, they kept making enough plays to stay close.

I am sure you have probably seen it on SportsCenter already, but Talor Battle's length of the court dramatic lay-up with 0.3 seconds remaining is the shot that probably put the improbable Lions into the Big Dance.

Notice I said "probably". If you listen to the ESPN pundits, I am pretty sure they have 77 teams in the field right now; Penn State's win was a huge one, but not an "automatic" bid by any stretch. Michigan got their BIG win, so did Minnesota. Right now, March Maniacs has Penn State IN, but barely.

We will unveil our "40" sometime tomorrow afternoon
(for those of you new - 34 at large bids + conference champs from Big 6 = 40 slots. It is the easiest way to keep track of the fluidity, and not get caught up in the "win that gets them in" every night on ESPN.)

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Stock Up, Stock Down - BIG TEN

This week did much to settle the murky bubble picture as several teams did much to shape their chances. Here is a quick rundown of where everyone stands as of Monday, March 2nd.

Big Ten:

Wisconsin - Things are looking good for Bucky after yesterday's home win over Michigan. I think Wisconsin is IN, solidly #4 in the Big Ten.

Ohio State - Still up in the air, but they close with Iowa and Northwestern. Do what they are supposed to do, and the Buckeyes should be safe. They have a bevy of wins over the Top 100 and Top 50 to fall back on.

Michigan - The did the Paula Abdul this week (no, not the "act like a crazy bitch on national tv" thing - the "one step forward, two steps back). Don't act like you don't remember MC Skat Kat.... Anyhow, their win over Purdue helped their cause immensly, but yesterday's loss to Wisconsin put them right back where they started. I still think Michigan gets the nod over Minnesota and Penn State at this juncture.

Minnesota - Where did things go wrong? Minnesota looked like a lock most of the season, but has hit a big time Big Ten rut. The good news Gopher fan(s)? You control your own destiny, finishing with Wisconsin and Michigan. Win both and it's a lock. Drop both and Tubby and crew will be kNITing.

Penn State - Other sites have them IN ahead of Michigan, I just don't see it. The Lions have had an impressive Big Ten run, and are plenty worthy of a bid, but when 34 resumes get laid on the table in two weeks PSU lacks the big wins to rise to the top of the pile. They finish the season with Illinois and Iowa. Better win 'em both and keep the momentum running into the conference tourney.

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Bubblin' on Tuesday

Here's a quick guide to tonight's biggest bubble-impacting contests.

Penn State @ Ohio State:

Who'da thunk it? The Buckeyes looked to be tourney locks a month ago, and no one thought Penn State would even be in the mix before the season started. Most pundits have OSU just in and PSU just out. Think tonight swings the pendulum a little?!?
Maniac's Pick: Penn State +6.5

Pitt @ Providence:

Call it the Friars' last stand. For weeks we all tried to find reasons to convince the public the Friars' had earned their dance ticket. Well, most of us are just about out of ways to justify them getting in. 8th in the Big East or not, they just haven't done enough to merit inclusion in the Big Dance.

So tonight they get their chance.
Maniac's Pick: Pitt -9

Florida St @ Boston College:

BC has been great against the Golliath's...yet average against the rest of the conference. Their perch on the bubble is precarious at best, but another resume win tonight over the Seminoles should cement their tourney status.

FSU meanwhile is the opposite; they have done what they were supposed to in conference but not gotten that big marquee win. BC doesn't fit that bill either, but the Noles can ill-afford a loss as they chase a Top-4 seed.
Maniac's Pick: FSU +2.5

Florida @ LSU:

I know you have heard me say it before, but seriously, what is with the media hard-on for LSU?!? I can;t recall a team fattening up on more bums and raising in the polls as steadily as the Tigers over the past four weeks. Once again, let me remind you in their non-conference games they did not beat a single team in the RPI Top 100.

Staggering. Meanwhile, the Gators remain my frustrating sleeper team that needs to wake up. I think Billy D and Calathes get it done tonight, and I think the committee will punish LSU for the scheduling transgressions and give them no better than an #8 seed...
Maniac's Pick: Florida +4.5


Two other bubble games, but no picks:

Texas A&M and Nebraska play in a virtual elimination game tonight. Both still have work to do with a win, but a loss seals their fate.

BYU and San Diego State hook up in a great MWC matchup, BYU is "in" while San Diego St is "out" in most projections (including ours) but their resumes are much more similar than most people realize. Tonight's tilt gainst Steve Fischer's squad in San Diego is quietly one of the more impactful games in the country.

A win tonight would be "fab" for Fisher

Two week stretch run really gets rolling tonight...enjoy

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Big Wins and Damaging Losses

Everything in the final few weeks is under a much closer magnifying glass. There are a few teams who might wish they could have shuffled yesterday's losses into the November mulligan pile.

Bad Losses:

• Miami (FL) all but sealed their NIT fate last night, falling to Florida State 80-67. The Canes join Notre Dame and Georgetown as one of the most disapointing teams in 2009.

• Illinois was starting to gather some momentum as a possible top-4 seed. Last night that came to a clanking halt. Let me emphasize "clank." As in 33 points. Yup, just 33 points. Granted Penn State netted only 38 in what has to be one of the lousier "decent" games of the season.

• Providence wasn't supposed to win at Louisville, but posting another double-digit loss against a formidable foe gives some ammo to the case for leaving out the Friars. One of their only saving graces might be the fact that Georgetown and Notre Dame seemingly refuse to make a late season charge, and the Big East is GOING to get eight teams in...

• Butler dropped another game last night, this time a three point loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Butler peaked in the Top 10, but is looking more like a 10 seed if they don't get it together quickly.

• Someone should volunteer to play defense down in Knoxville. Most people still have the Vols comfortably in the tourney, but they sure are begging the committee to reconsider. Last night they got drubbed 81-65 by Ole Miss to fall to 7-4 in conference. They are 7-7 over their last 14 games overall. The Vols are still in decent shape, but with games still remaining against Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina they can still play themselves out of the tourney.

• Speaking of South Carolina, losing to Mississippi State is not the way to play yourself onto the good side of the bubble. The Gamecocks still have some work to do over the next three weeks.

• Ohio State is the same story; things were looking good until last night's surprising loss to Northwestern. With a few tips and breaks here and there, we wouldn't be talking about Ohio State's bad loss, but perhaps the Wildcats big win. Alas, that was a game the Buckeyes needed to stay in the Big Ten race.

• Perhaps the worst loss of the night was Virginia Tech. The Hokies find themselves in the bubble muddle in the middle of the deep ACC along with Florida State, BC, Miami and Maryland. That made losing to in-state rival Virginia particularly damning for VA Tech.

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Steady as we go...

It is that time of year where the daily "who's in - who's out" columns and prognostications begin. Personally, I love it. As a fellow hoops junkie, I am sure you do too. However, there are three teams written off on most "mock tourneys" to keep aware of in the final four weeks of regular season hoops.

1. Georgetown (13-9, 4-7) - Ironic, as I labeled them one of the nation's most "overrated" teams three weeks ago (I was right on all but 'Nova). However, assuming they win the three games they SHOULD (USF, DePaul and St. Johns) that gets them to 7-7 in the Big East. Their remaining four games are as follows:

@ Syracuse 2/14
Marquette 2/21
Louisville 2/23
@ Villanova 2/28

Should the split those four; they will finish the regular season 18-11, 9-9. They will have wins over UConn, Memphis, Syracuse (plus two of the above four), and not a single "bad" loss, unless you want to count Notre Dame (and I guess you probably can...)

The bookend losses to Cincinnati puts them in a precarious spot, but with Providence slipping an 8th Big East slot is up for grabs and the 9th, should the BEast earn it, is ripe for the Hoyas picking.

Besides, with that resume, I find it hard to believe the Georgetown ends up kNITing.

2. Penn State - Right now, they are just on the outside looking in, but the Dance Card is there for the punching. At 17-7, without a real non-conference win they need to take three of their five remaining "biggies" and scoop up the suddenly-not-automatic wins over Iowa and Indiana to have a legit shot. The five biggies are home/home with Illinois, Minnesota at home and trips to Ohio State and Purdue. The journey begins tonight in Lafayette, a tough place to win, but they do get the Boilers without Robbie Hummel (back) in a game that provides some backbone to a truly flimsy bubble case.

3. Kansas State - After their 0-5 start in conference, the Wildcats were completely written off; even as NIT possibilities. Now, they are one of the hottest teams in the nation. Their remaining schedule is fullof winnable games, with only a visit from Kansas and a trip to Missouri games they won't be favored in. Even if they drop those two, if they handle their business elsewhere they will finish at (22-9, 10-6) with wins over Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M bolstering their case. Plus the committee loves a "hot team." and the Wildcats certainly fit the bill.

It also makes for a really interesting possibility of having FIVE teams in the tourney nicknamed "Wildcats." Can we find a sixth perhaps???

Has that ever happened before? Someone who gets laid very rarely will have to research that one in between porn downloads...

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Bubblin' Hot

Yep, it's all-bubble talk, all-day here at MM.com. Don't act like you don't like it!

One of the Maniac's bro-mances this year has been with Penn State and point guard Talor Battle. As a matter of fact, we flirted with sliding Penn State into "lock" status after their win at MSU and the troubles that have befallen Wisconsin and Michigan.

So what happens tonight?? Penn State scores TWENTY points in the second half, en route to a 20+ point loss to Michigan. That completes the season sweep of the Nittany Lions. Put that chip in Michigan's pile along with wins over Duke and UCLA, and the Nittany Lions need to significantly separate themselves from the Wolverines in order to dance. The Maniac would wager healthily that both will NOT get a punched Dance card.

Dunking Penn State makes the Big Ten one big, exciting mess.

Oh, throw in the Wisconsin easy win over Illinois and you once again have a giant jumbled Big Ten mess.

A week ago, dare I say, the Maniac predicted the resurecting run by the Arizona Wildcats. After their 3-point win tonight in Corvallis, only hapless Oregon stands in the way of the revivial coming to frution. It will be interesting to see whether the nation's longest active NCAA-appearance streak can live on for another year...

Seriously dude, stomp on MY face...

A couple good games to look up results for tomorrow: Gonzaga v. Portland, and Washington @ Cal...

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Big Ten Action: Penn State looks for huge statement win

Northwestern got on yesterday, now fellow Big Ten traditional doormat looks to do the same.

What is that you ask? Knock off conference big boy Michigan State in East Lansing. Penn State has been one of the season's pleasant surprises. If the season were ending today, I have them as the 7th Big Ten team going to the Dance (ahead of Michigan and Wisconsin). With a win today, the Nittany Lions move into near-lock status.

It won't be easy, and after Northwestern handed the Spartans their lone conference loss (in their own gym no less), you can bet Izzo's team will not be looking past today's game.

Penn State shoots for new heights today at East Lansing.

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Wednesday's Pick

Wow, the Maniac is still reeling from the display Jodie Meeks put on last night. Highlights don't do it justice my friends...

As far as the Maniac last night, precient selections of the road wins notched by Kentucky and FSU, as well as sweating out his lock pick of TCU +15. The only loss was on lost-cause IU, suffering, along with the audience, on yet another nationally televised blowout.

Here are Wednesday's selections:

Michigan State travels to surprising Penn State. Talor Battle has been great for the Nittany Lions, who still remain an outside candidate to sneak into the Big Dance. However, Michigan State has gelled of late and the talent discrepency is really large between them. I like Penn State, but no way they cover tonight.

Maniac's Pick: Michigan State -5 1/2 (LOCK)

Syracuse begins their four-game gauntlet tonight with a trip to the nation's capital to take on Greg Monroe and the Hoyas. These two teams always sem to lock up in tough battles, I expect tonight to be no different. I like the Hoyas, but will take the Orange with the points.

Maniac's Pick: Syracuse +6

Florida heads to Auburn tonight to take on the Tigers. Auburn has athleticism and rebounding, but lacks playmakers and shooting. It sees like the type of matchup that bodes well for the Gators, provided they can take care of the basketball and get on the defensive glass. Year Two of the "Baby Gators" has not been quite as successful as some hoped, but tonight's win would be a good positive step to returning the the NCAA Touney.

Maniac's Pick: Florida -3

Arkansas has notched two of the most impressive non-conference wins of anyone in the country, beating Oklahoma and Texas. SO why are they two point dogs tonight at Mississippi? Because the SEC is full of parity; good, yet few (if any) very good teams. Mississippi entered the season with SEC West title aspirations, though they took a hit when Chris Warren got hurt. Arkansas has a lot of talent most people have never heard of. A loss tonight puts a tarnish on their two big wins. I think John Pelphrey will make sure his Hogs know that.

Maniac's Pick: Arkansas +2

Last year's darlings of the Valley travel to this year's hopefuls when Drake visits Illinois State. We were real high on the Redbirds and their unbeaten start until MVC parity reared it's ugly head. It is that same parity that makes it crazy to lay 9 on anyone in this league. Gimme Drake and the points.

Maniac's Pick: Drake +9 (LOCK)

Wake visits BC in the proverbial "trap game." Fresh off their emotional fantastic victory over UNC they would seem ripe for the plucking. Just like...exactly, BC versus Harvard. Don't think that won't come up several hundred times in tonight's pregame locker room talk. Wake shows some maturity and poise tonight, and handles their business over a less-talented BC team.

Maniac's Pick: Wake -4 (LOCK)

Utah @ Air Force - Interesting game, gimme Air Force at home, if only becuase getting 8 is like getting 15 for a team that plays a normal tempo.

Maniac's Pick: Air Force +8

State-Ment Win

How 'bout those Nittany Lions? About a month back the Maniac had Northwestern and Penn State on the radar, but was leaning more towards the Wildcats after their thumping of Florida State. Last week Penn State handled them in their conference opener. The followed up with a respectable 4-point loss AT Madison (where no one seems to win other than the Badgers.)

Tonight's game against purdue would show whether Penn State was for real, or just "Ranked #1 for a while then throttled by a USC freight-train in the Rose Bowl" real...

Their 67-64 win over a Purdue team many consider Final Four possibilities should answer that question with a resounding YES.

Sophomore guard Talor Battle continued his unlikely All-Big Ten campaign with a dazzling 21 point, 9 assist perfomance that will linger for a while. Penn State's backcourt may not be large in stature (Battle is 5'11', backcourtmate Pringle is 6'2'') but they are huge in production. They combine for an average of 35+ points and 8.5 assists a night and currently rank as the Big Ten's most productive backcourt.

Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves and punch the Lions a dance ticket; there is still a lot of work to go. For now though, they have t be solidly ahead of Ohio State (0-3 in conference) and at least on pace with Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan in the conversation.

One last cogent point: do NOT let Penn State's win tonight indicate that the Big Ten isn't as good as people thought. Parity does not equate to a lack of quality. Purdue is a very good ball club. Ask Texas and Davidson and Oklahoma (great OT loss) and Boston College. It's is simply the matter that Penn State is too. Their vast improvement and the 6-10 conference wins they will pick up makes the Big 10 the deepest most balanced league in the country.

Talor Battle and the Lions are legit tourney hopefuls for the first time
since the Joe Crispin era...

UP NEXT:

Purdue hosts Wisconsin, then takes a sneaky-tricky roadie to Northwesten and returns home to face Iowa. The Boilers would be dissapointed with anything less than 3-0 on the swing.

Penn State looks to keep the momentum going on a trip to visit Tubby's also resurgent Gophers before returning home to find Michigan State waiting. Then they mus try to keep focused for an Indiana game that equates to a win you simply MUST get to keep NCAA Tourney fires stoked.