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Showing posts with label Villanova. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Villanova. Show all posts
February 9th National Roundup
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| So many teams, so few spots.. |
Some of you might recall one of the first columns of the season talking about the relative lack of strength nationwide. It wasn't an early season exageration, I turned out to be exactly right. However don't confuse "down year" with "boring year." If anything, this year's final four week scramble might be the most entertaining pre-tourney finish we have seen in years.
Here's a quick rundown of the day's more important results. A seperate series of columns will be devoted to specifically addressing each team's at-large chances.
Big East:
Louisville has been the most pleasant surprise in the conference, and possibly in the entire country. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and possibly even a NIT season. However, Preston Knowles and the Cards have been fantastic. It looked like they were on the verge of capturing yet another enormous conference win at Notre Dame tonight, until surprise BEast Player of the Year candidate Ben Hansbrough took over. The senior standout helped the Irish force overtime, then spearheaded a 10-0 run to start the extra frame as Notre Dame walked away with a huge win. The Irish, projected as a bubble team at best preseason are now a solid candidate for a #1 seed (though like G'Town, likely a #2 or #3) and have emerged as a nice darkhorse Final Four contender.
Marquette is nothing if not exciting. Perhaps no team this season has lost more heartbreaking games to elite teams than the Warriors. Tonight, in a game they should have won easily, they again showed their affinity for heart-pounders. After trailing for most of the game, the Warriors eeked out a 59-58 win at South Florida, and more importantly kept the at-large tourney hopes afloat. They are by no means safely in, but a loss to cellar-dweller USF would have been a crippling blow to their chances.
Meanwhile Villanova helped prove that ANY road game is a tough game in the nation's power conferences, dropping a 77-76 game at Rutgers that could come back to haunt them in their pursuit of a Top 2 seed in March.
Big Ten:
Ohio State has been the big story of 2011 as the nation's lone unbeaten team for more than two weeks now. However, everyone else in the Big Ten has looked at times tourney-worthy (with the exception of perhaps Iowa and Indiana), and at other times simply terrible.
Michigan continued their recent solid play with a relatively easy 75-66 home win over Northwestern. It is likely too late for Michigan to earn an at-large bid, barring a remarkable finish to the season, but the win tonight did officially put to rest any aspirations Northwestern might have held of snapping their lifetime streak of missing the NCAA Tourney. Michigan moved to 15-10 (5-7) with the win, while Northwestern fell to 14-9 (4-8), making even an NIT bid look ambitious at this point.
Tomorrow has two more interesting and do-or-die Big Ten games when Penn State travels to reeling Michigan State and Illinois travels to Minnesota for a game that looks more and more like one that could vault the winner to the Tourney and the loser to the NIT.
Conference USA:
It may not happen, but I still contend this is a multiple-bid league, possibly as many as three bid merited even. Memphis dodged an enormous bullet tonight in Orlando when Antonio Barton hit a three pointer on a pass delivered from his Conference USA freshman-of-the-year brother Will, with two seconds remaining to clip UCF 63-62. The win keeps Memphis's bubble hopes strong, while for UCF any semblance of optimism from their 14-0 start have fully evaporated with their still-going eight game losing streak.
SEC:
Florida ended any remote chances South Carolina might have been clinging to with their 79-60 win in Colombia. The Gators moved to 19-5 (8-2) and are looking more and more like a Top 4 seed come tourney time.
Georgia is also a bubble-team, though they lack some of the huge resume wins of their counterpart in Knoxville. They let a golden opportunity slip away last night, losing to Xavier 65-57 on their home floor.
Saturday is a huge day in the SEC, as Kentucky travels to Vanderbilt, and the Gators host the desperate Tennessee Volunteers.
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Villanova Stunned - Providence Notches Second Striaght Upset Win
After starting Big East play 0-6, the Providence Friars looked to be easy fodder for the top half of the league to fatten up on in their quest to score a NCAA-record ten tournament bids. Someone forgot to tell the Friars.
Providence followed up their upset win over Louisville last weekend with a stunning 83-68 over #8 Villanova. Marshon Brooks led the Friars with 20 points, following up his 27 point performance over Louisville with another clutch performance.
The win marks the first time in 12 years Providence has notched back-to-back wins over Top 25 teams, and more importantly shakes up the already-chaotic Big East yet again. Things appeared to be settling into the normal caste system that marks most elite conferences. Villanova was in the ruling class; Providence the serfs. The last four days things have been flipped upside down; in addition to Providence, both Seton Hall and Notre Dame knocked off two other Top 10 teams in Syracuse and Pitt respectively.
Providence will look to keep their resent surge going Sunday at Seton Hall while 'Nova looks to get back on track with a tough visit from Georgetown Saturday afternoon.
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| Brooks has the Friars reaching farther than expected. |
The win marks the first time in 12 years Providence has notched back-to-back wins over Top 25 teams, and more importantly shakes up the already-chaotic Big East yet again. Things appeared to be settling into the normal caste system that marks most elite conferences. Villanova was in the ruling class; Providence the serfs. The last four days things have been flipped upside down; in addition to Providence, both Seton Hall and Notre Dame knocked off two other Top 10 teams in Syracuse and Pitt respectively.
Providence will look to keep their resent surge going Sunday at Seton Hall while 'Nova looks to get back on track with a tough visit from Georgetown Saturday afternoon.
For a detailed Big East Mid-Season Breakdown, check MarchManiacs.com Thursday Edition.
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Just Another Hard, Physical, Ugly Day in the Big East...and it's Fantastic
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| Walker has earned those hugs with his heroics |
Last week it was a last-second bucket to beat Texas. Today? Same scenario, different opponent as Walker felled #7 Villanova and good buddy Corey Fischer with a runner in the lane with 2.5 seconds remaining. Villanova was out of timeouts, when Fischer's 40-foot desperation heave went wide, UConn had picked off yet another Top 10 opponent.
Michigan State and Kentucky have since fallen in the polls, but both were ranked in the Top Ten at the time Connecticut clipped them out in Maui. Not bad for a team picked tenth in their own conference by the coaches.
Kemba Walker continues to put this team on his back, and despite a few forced shots from time to time, is leading this team to victory as much as he is scoring them to wins. I've said for over a month that Jared Sullinger is my clubhouse leader for National POY, but concede Walker has to be mentioned in the same sentance as Sullinger and Nolan Smith and Jimmer Fredette, and might have emerged today as the leader.
From a team standpoint, today was another huge win for Connecticut as they continue to build a #1 seed-worthy profile in the loaded Big East. For Villanova, it is just their second loss, and a road loss to UConn certianly does little to damage them, but the win would have been a valuable chip in their respective #1-seed resume building pile.
The excitement keeps going tonight as the BEast's other two top teams, Pitt and Syracuse meet in Pittsburgh tonight at 7:30 (also on ESPN). The Maniac's official pick for the game is posted on www.thesportsgeek.com - if you'd like to see it.
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Saturday Selections - The Maniac is Back
Missouri +5.5 @ Texas A&M
The Aggies have one of the best records in the country, but are seriously devoid of many quality wins worth boasting about. They are going to have their hands full with the pressure and relentless scoring attack of the Tigers. I like Mizzou winning outright in College Station, but love them getting 5.5.
Maryland @ Villanova -5.5
How bad is the ACC really?? Today might give us a nice glimpse when the Terps head over to Philly to meet Villanova. The Wildcats are the quietest Top 10 team in the country, with their only loss coming in Knoxville on an afternoon where the Vols shot the lights out. Aside from that, they've been perfect, including wins over Temple, Cincinnati and Louisville. I think Maryland is one of the top three or four teams in the ACC, behind Duke (obviously), North Carolina and then lumped in that middle group with Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech. Keeping that sort of company makes a 5-point spread at 'Nova seem way, way too low. Gimme the Wildcats by double digits.
Georgia +4.5 @ Ole Miss
Georgia has as much talent as any team in the SEC outside of Kentucky. They lost last week to Vandy, but played decently in the game; Vandy is just really good (and has the best player no one knows about, Jeff Taylor). Georgia has played a solid schedule and taken a few lumps, but they are starting to become much better for it and are blossoming into an NCAA Tourney caliber team.
The Bulldogs are significantly better than Ole Miss on a neutral floor - so giving them 4.5 on the road seems too generous to pass up. Gimme UGA in a road win "upset."
UCF @ Southern Miss - 3
Anyone reading this already knows I am an excessively-proud UCF alum. You also have heard me pumping up Southern Miss and Gary Flowers as on of the true sleeper teams and players in the country and someone to watch in March. So today - I have to put my money where my mouth is. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I will be. Gimme the Golden Eagles laying three. I think I just spit up in my mouth a little bit.
New Mexico was one of the surprise teams last season, riding their fantastic MWC conference play to a gaudy record and a #3 seed in the NCAA Tourney. San Diego State fits that identical profile this season, though their sights might be set even a little higher; a #1 seed isn't out of reach. The other difference is Kawhi Leonard, the sophomore forward for the Aztecs, who is a legit NBA first rounder.
The other big factor? New Mexico isn't very good this year. Look at their record and their schedule. A 35 point loss to an abysmal Cal team. A 66-60 loss to Northern Iowa (also down from last season), and last week a loss at Wyoming. How are they basically a pick-em with one of the ten best teams in the country? Is their home court advantage truly that formidable?
I don't know either. Take the Aztecs. I'll make that my lock of the day.
MANIAC'S PICKS: SDSU-1 (lock), So Miss -3, Georgia +4.5, 'Nova -5.5, Mizz +5.5
Separation Wednesday in the BEast
Yesterday we talked about the great opportunity tonight - for completely different reasons - awaiting about a dozen Big East teams. The scheduling Gods smiled on hoops fans, and laid out intriguing matchups all across the mega conference, giving us a chance to really begin to make some sense of who belongs where in the BEast.
Some made the most of it, and others had a night they'd soon forget.
It's definitely the latter for St. John's and Georgetown.
Tonight in the Garden the Johnnies had a chance to earn some respect around the neighborhood with a win over visiting Syracuse. Instead, it was the Orange crushing the Red Storm, embarrassing St. Johns 76-59. While the loss is disappointing for Lavin and the Red Storm, it is equally impressive for the 'Cuse. At this point, it might be wise to heed Bobby Knight's advice and start lumping Syracuse in with Duke, Ohio State and Kansas when mentioning the nation's elite teams.
Speaking of elite teams, Pitt, as is becoming customary under Jamie Dixon, deserves to be on the short list as well. Tonight's trip to Georgetown was much, much more important for Georgetown, yet the Hoyas fell to a stunning 1-4 in Big East play after being comfortably outplayed all night by the Panthers. I've written it before but it merits repeating - this season is getting eerily reminiscent of two seasons past's Top10-turned NIT flop disaster. And just like two years ago, heck, really last year's embarrassing opening round loss to #14 seed Ohio U as well), with the talent on John Thompson's roster, there's simply no excuse.
In the last real separation game tonight Louisville visited Villanova in an attempt to validate the national ranking many have questioned due to the relative lack of schedule strength thus far for the Cards. It didn't work out quite as well as Pitino might have hoped.
Jay Wright, who along with Jamie Dixon, has to be one of the most criminally underrated coaches in the nation, is at it again this year, despite not having what many would consider to be a "star-studded" line-up. In fact, had Bruce Pearl's suspension taken place earlier it's possible both Nova AND Pitt would be on the list of undefeated squads.
Tonight showed clearly what I have long suspected in regards to the Big East. With the exception of Georgetown whom I was clearly over-enamored with, the league is beginning to settle into four quadrants.
And DePAUL. (seriously, can we just boot Providence and DePaul already and bring in TCU and UCF?).
MANIAC'S PICK: The Maniac's gut feel - the BEast gets eight teams in the Dance, with Louisville, Cincinnati and St. John's clawing for the final spot of the eight. Right now, due to sheer number of wins I'd wager Cincinnati saves Mick Cronin's job for another year.
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It's definitely the latter for St. John's and Georgetown.
Tonight in the Garden the Johnnies had a chance to earn some respect around the neighborhood with a win over visiting Syracuse. Instead, it was the Orange crushing the Red Storm, embarrassing St. Johns 76-59. While the loss is disappointing for Lavin and the Red Storm, it is equally impressive for the 'Cuse. At this point, it might be wise to heed Bobby Knight's advice and start lumping Syracuse in with Duke, Ohio State and Kansas when mentioning the nation's elite teams.
Speaking of elite teams, Pitt, as is becoming customary under Jamie Dixon, deserves to be on the short list as well. Tonight's trip to Georgetown was much, much more important for Georgetown, yet the Hoyas fell to a stunning 1-4 in Big East play after being comfortably outplayed all night by the Panthers. I've written it before but it merits repeating - this season is getting eerily reminiscent of two seasons past's Top10-turned NIT flop disaster. And just like two years ago, heck, really last year's embarrassing opening round loss to #14 seed Ohio U as well), with the talent on John Thompson's roster, there's simply no excuse.
In the last real separation game tonight Louisville visited Villanova in an attempt to validate the national ranking many have questioned due to the relative lack of schedule strength thus far for the Cards. It didn't work out quite as well as Pitino might have hoped.
Jay Wright, who along with Jamie Dixon, has to be one of the most criminally underrated coaches in the nation, is at it again this year, despite not having what many would consider to be a "star-studded" line-up. In fact, had Bruce Pearl's suspension taken place earlier it's possible both Nova AND Pitt would be on the list of undefeated squads.
Tonight showed clearly what I have long suspected in regards to the Big East. With the exception of Georgetown whom I was clearly over-enamored with, the league is beginning to settle into four quadrants.
TIER ONE: Nationally Elite
Syracuse, Pitt, VillanovaTIER TWO: Likely Tourney Teams
UConn, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, MarquetteTIER THREE: Tourney Caliber - Bubble Teams
Cincinnati (I know, 16-1, start emailing me hate mail before it's too late...), St. John's, West VirginiaTIER FOUR: Not Tourney Teams
Seton Hall, Rutgers, USF, ProvidenceAnd DePAUL. (seriously, can we just boot Providence and DePaul already and bring in TCU and UCF?).
MANIAC'S PICK: The Maniac's gut feel - the BEast gets eight teams in the Dance, with Louisville, Cincinnati and St. John's clawing for the final spot of the eight. Right now, due to sheer number of wins I'd wager Cincinnati saves Mick Cronin's job for another year.
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Weekend Review - Big East Jan 10th
The nation's most exciting conference of 2008-2009 is living up to the advance billing once again in 2010. Here is a quick rundown of the weekend that was and the big games coming up this week.
Georgetown's 72-69 comeback win at home against UConn was one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Coach K likes to say that great shooting can cover up a lot of team flaws. In that case Austin Freeman was a giant tarp. His 28 point second half explosion was a revelation for the Hoyas. If he can continue to pour it in from the outside, just think how good Greg Monroe can become...
The biggest win of the weekend has to belong to Notre Dame. Despite their strong record the Irish were desperatly devoid of a quality win. Toppling West Virginia 70-68 certainly fits the bill. If the Irish could get into that Top 20, Top 15 range Harangody would be a legitimate challenger to John Wall for player of the year. His numbers are simply ridiculously off the charts.
Seton Hall notched a big win as well. The Pirates have played tough in close losses, but that won't get you to the NCAA tourney. Cincinnati can feel a repeat of year's past unfolding as they fell to 1-3 after the 83-76 road loss to the Hall.
Marquette used an incredible 57 point second half to again fall JUST short, losing 78-76 to Villanova. The Warriors could easily be 4-0 in conference, but still remain 1-3. The good news is the losses are all to the top teams in the league. As their schedule evens out, the Warriors should be fine.
Louisville moved to 3-0 with their win over St John's (whose tourney hopes are fading quickly). Now let's see for the 'Ville fares tonight against their first real conference test hosting Villanova.
Team UP: Louisville, Georgetown
Team DOWN: St. John's, Cincinnati
Games of the Week: Pitt @ UConn (Wed), Seton Hall @ Georgetown (Thur), Louisville @ Pitt & Syracuse @ West Virginia & Notre Dame @ Cincy (Sat), G'Town @ Nova (Sun)
Georgetown's 72-69 comeback win at home against UConn was one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Coach K likes to say that great shooting can cover up a lot of team flaws. In that case Austin Freeman was a giant tarp. His 28 point second half explosion was a revelation for the Hoyas. If he can continue to pour it in from the outside, just think how good Greg Monroe can become...
The biggest win of the weekend has to belong to Notre Dame. Despite their strong record the Irish were desperatly devoid of a quality win. Toppling West Virginia 70-68 certainly fits the bill. If the Irish could get into that Top 20, Top 15 range Harangody would be a legitimate challenger to John Wall for player of the year. His numbers are simply ridiculously off the charts.
Seton Hall notched a big win as well. The Pirates have played tough in close losses, but that won't get you to the NCAA tourney. Cincinnati can feel a repeat of year's past unfolding as they fell to 1-3 after the 83-76 road loss to the Hall.
Marquette used an incredible 57 point second half to again fall JUST short, losing 78-76 to Villanova. The Warriors could easily be 4-0 in conference, but still remain 1-3. The good news is the losses are all to the top teams in the league. As their schedule evens out, the Warriors should be fine.
Louisville moved to 3-0 with their win over St John's (whose tourney hopes are fading quickly). Now let's see for the 'Ville fares tonight against their first real conference test hosting Villanova.
Team UP: Louisville, Georgetown
Team DOWN: St. John's, Cincinnati
Games of the Week: Pitt @ UConn (Wed), Seton Hall @ Georgetown (Thur), Louisville @ Pitt & Syracuse @ West Virginia & Notre Dame @ Cincy (Sat), G'Town @ Nova (Sun)
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Rating Saturday's Top Games
The NFL playoffs start today, and the Maniac's beloved Bengals will host our (yep, I even say "our" like it is possible I'll make a tackle tomorrow) second playoff game in twenty years. As long time tortured season tickets holders, my whole family is super psyched.
That said, there is still some fantastic college hoops worth catching early, or DVR'ing for later.
FIVE STARS:
Purdue @ Wisconsin (1:30 EST - Big Ten Network)
Hardly anyone wins at the Kohl Center other than the Badgers. They have already dispatched a fantastic Duke team there this season, next up they'll try to do the same to the Boilermakers. A win for Wisconsin puts them solidly in the mix to win the Big Ten title and lurches them into the same sentance as Purdue and Michigan State. A win for the Boilers cements them, in my mind, as the clear conference favorite and a huge step towards capturing a #1 seed in March.
FOUR STARS:
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State (4 EST - ESPN)
One of the nation's best kept secrets travels to dangerous Illinois State and perhaps the conference's best player in Osiris Eldridge. The Valley is notorious for beating each other up all season long, preventing two or three teams to seperate from the pack and bolster their at-large chances. Today is an opportunity for Northern Iowa to do just that.
Mississippi @ Mississippi State - The two best teams in the SEC West lock up in a fantastic rival that should be amplified by both teams collective talent level this season. The winner gets an early jump on winning the West.
BYU @ UTEP (9 EST) - This game is a huge feather for both in their at-large profile, though it likely means more to UTEP with BYU a pretty solid lock for March unless they really falter in conference. C-USA is much improved while constant giant Memphis is down. This is the year they might snatch multiple NCAA bids, but it will be competitive with UAB, Houston, Tulsa and Memphis all jockeying. This one is huge for the Miners.
UConn @ Georgetown (Noon, ESPN) - Hard to say this one kills the loser, but it is a good chance to see two of the countries better team; though still very flawed teams, lock horns. Both could use a solid conference win in the uber-competitive BEast. Let's be honest, any game in that conference not involving DePaul, Rutgers, Providence or USF is at least a 3-star game.
Marquette @ Villanova (2 EST) - Marquette could very easily be 3-0 in conference, ranked nationally and be enjoying the media crush that has bestowed upon Pitt this week. Instead, they find theselves in a precarious spot; lose at Nova and they fall to 1-3 and become an early "bubble" candidate...
Wake Forest @ Miami -Two teams that can actually make a claim to being "underrated" despite very good records and playing in the ACC. The winner today can make a good case for being in the Top 15 in the country and gets a valable chip for late season jockeying through the middle of the ACC pecking order.
THREE STARS:
Florida @ Vanderbilt (Noon) - Think Florida's hot start wasn't a bit of a mirage? Vegas has the Gators as seven point dogs to the 'Dores
St John's @ Louisville (Noon) - St John's better get rolling soon or it is yet another empty postseason and bottom half BEast finish.
Niagara @ Siena - Two best MEAC teams go head to head
Duke @ Georgia Tech - great litmus test for the young Jackets
Kansas State @ Missouri - great chance for Mizzou to jump on radar, great chance for Cats to show they deserve a top ten ranking
Ohio State @ Minnesota - looking forward to seeing if Evan Turner is all the way back in a tricky road stop for the Bucks.
Georgia @ Kentucky - always a good rivalry, it will be interesting to see if the Cats play with the killer instinct needed to bury a lesser opponent.
Oklahoma @ Baylor - OK Sooners, you want to stay relevant in 2010, you need to start winning soon. Today at Baylor would be a good start.
Cincinnati @ Seton Hall - Both teams fancy themselves as tourney teams in 2010. The Pirate fall to 0-4 with a loss and will be buried pretty deep. Meanwhile the Cats need the road win to stop their skid and remain at .500 in conference play.
Tulsa @ Houston - A nice chance to get out to the front of C-USA pack in the conference opener.
West Virginia @ Notre Dame - A chance for the Irish to get their first big win of the season, and boy do they really need a few to bolster that resume.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State - Something tells me that only one of the these two teams find themselves on the favorable side of the bubble in ten weeks. A head-to-head win sure never hurts.
Gonzaga @ Portland - A big chance for Portland to get back to relevant. A nice chance for Gonzaga to smack back the uprising and show the WCC who is still boss.
That said, there is still some fantastic college hoops worth catching early, or DVR'ing for later.
FIVE STARS:
Purdue @ Wisconsin (1:30 EST - Big Ten Network)
Hardly anyone wins at the Kohl Center other than the Badgers. They have already dispatched a fantastic Duke team there this season, next up they'll try to do the same to the Boilermakers. A win for Wisconsin puts them solidly in the mix to win the Big Ten title and lurches them into the same sentance as Purdue and Michigan State. A win for the Boilers cements them, in my mind, as the clear conference favorite and a huge step towards capturing a #1 seed in March.
FOUR STARS:
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State (4 EST - ESPN)
One of the nation's best kept secrets travels to dangerous Illinois State and perhaps the conference's best player in Osiris Eldridge. The Valley is notorious for beating each other up all season long, preventing two or three teams to seperate from the pack and bolster their at-large chances. Today is an opportunity for Northern Iowa to do just that.
Mississippi @ Mississippi State - The two best teams in the SEC West lock up in a fantastic rival that should be amplified by both teams collective talent level this season. The winner gets an early jump on winning the West.
BYU @ UTEP (9 EST) - This game is a huge feather for both in their at-large profile, though it likely means more to UTEP with BYU a pretty solid lock for March unless they really falter in conference. C-USA is much improved while constant giant Memphis is down. This is the year they might snatch multiple NCAA bids, but it will be competitive with UAB, Houston, Tulsa and Memphis all jockeying. This one is huge for the Miners.
UConn @ Georgetown (Noon, ESPN) - Hard to say this one kills the loser, but it is a good chance to see two of the countries better team; though still very flawed teams, lock horns. Both could use a solid conference win in the uber-competitive BEast. Let's be honest, any game in that conference not involving DePaul, Rutgers, Providence or USF is at least a 3-star game.
Marquette @ Villanova (2 EST) - Marquette could very easily be 3-0 in conference, ranked nationally and be enjoying the media crush that has bestowed upon Pitt this week. Instead, they find theselves in a precarious spot; lose at Nova and they fall to 1-3 and become an early "bubble" candidate...
Wake Forest @ Miami -Two teams that can actually make a claim to being "underrated" despite very good records and playing in the ACC. The winner today can make a good case for being in the Top 15 in the country and gets a valable chip for late season jockeying through the middle of the ACC pecking order.
THREE STARS:
Florida @ Vanderbilt (Noon) - Think Florida's hot start wasn't a bit of a mirage? Vegas has the Gators as seven point dogs to the 'Dores
St John's @ Louisville (Noon) - St John's better get rolling soon or it is yet another empty postseason and bottom half BEast finish.
Niagara @ Siena - Two best MEAC teams go head to head
Duke @ Georgia Tech - great litmus test for the young Jackets
Kansas State @ Missouri - great chance for Mizzou to jump on radar, great chance for Cats to show they deserve a top ten ranking
Ohio State @ Minnesota - looking forward to seeing if Evan Turner is all the way back in a tricky road stop for the Bucks.
Georgia @ Kentucky - always a good rivalry, it will be interesting to see if the Cats play with the killer instinct needed to bury a lesser opponent.
Oklahoma @ Baylor - OK Sooners, you want to stay relevant in 2010, you need to start winning soon. Today at Baylor would be a good start.
Cincinnati @ Seton Hall - Both teams fancy themselves as tourney teams in 2010. The Pirate fall to 0-4 with a loss and will be buried pretty deep. Meanwhile the Cats need the road win to stop their skid and remain at .500 in conference play.
Tulsa @ Houston - A nice chance to get out to the front of C-USA pack in the conference opener.
West Virginia @ Notre Dame - A chance for the Irish to get their first big win of the season, and boy do they really need a few to bolster that resume.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State - Something tells me that only one of the these two teams find themselves on the favorable side of the bubble in ten weeks. A head-to-head win sure never hurts.
Gonzaga @ Portland - A big chance for Portland to get back to relevant. A nice chance for Gonzaga to smack back the uprising and show the WCC who is still boss.
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A New Year of Bracketeering - Jan 8th, 2010
The calendar has turned and we bravely embark on a new decade of Bracketeering. First off - a big thanks to all our readers, you are growing in numbers and pretty soon the Maniac has a feeling that relatives will no longer control the majority of our audeince... goodtimes indeed.
For our neophytes, a quick synopsis of the methodology employed here: 1. We do not care about the AP and coaches poll, wins and losses do not move you up or down a prescribed number of slots. 2. We do our best to weigh both performance, but also a little predictive nature as well, meaning not just what you have done, but also waht our eyes tell us you can do. 3. You are welcome to piss, moan and complain about our rankings. We enjoy the emails, and have learned several new creatives profanities from you. So, Mazel Tov, and Happy New Year.
Enjoy the decade's first edition of Bracketeering.
FINAL FOUR:
1. Texas - I definitely flirted with dropping the Horns this week after a few somnambulistic performances against UT Corpus Christi and Arkansas. However, don't most good team go through a few little lulls here and there, especially in games against lesser competition? What I do know is that when the big boys came to play, the Horns beat 'em by double digits. They win a lot of games late, if for no other reason than they have tremendous depth. The general fan is more familiar with the names on Kansas and Kentucky's rosters, but the Horns are ten deep, athletic and balanced. For now - they keep our top slot once again.
2. Kansas - Some people will overreact to the close call at home against Cornell, but not us. The Red are good. Even better? The stern test of the Jayhawks before the rigors of confere4nce play commence. It has been a long time since they were tested. It is good to find out who your Alpha Dog is before everything is on the line in March. And if there was any doubt, there is no longer. It's Sherron Collins. His numbers aren't spectacular; and therein lies his greatest strength on my POY ballot. He is assimilating all the talent available with aplomb, and gives them everything you want from a PG who will be contending for a National Title. So, yeah, I've come around on Collins.
Oh, and the dismantling of a good Temple team on the road was as brilliant as a team has played this year. Not this team. Any team.
3. Purdue - I'm starting to really love this team. They share the ball better than any team in the nation, and remind me a lot of the 2006-2007 Gator squad. They have good players with clearly, and perfectly defined roles. They have NBA talent with Johnson, Hummel and E'Twan Moore. They have the best glue guy in country in Chris Kramer and have a functional bench. They are not more talented per se than our #4 team, but gut instict tells me they are a little better as a team.
This is a huge "show me" stretch coming up for the Boilers with a trip to the Kohl Center tomorrow (where the Badgers have already beaten Duke) and a visit from the once again Evan Turner-led Buckeyes on Tuesday. Win both? Final Four talk has to heat up beyond Boiling in West Lafayette.
4. Kentucky - Fourth? Last week I have them #2, they handle Louisville, I write a "Run the Table" column...and now drop them to fourth? It's not an indictment of the Cats, it's simply that Kansas and Purdue looked brilliant the past week, and the Cats are still a little more potential than polish. That said, with Wall and Cousins blossoming more every week, it is getting harder and harder to see this team not making the short drive to Indy this April. Think there'd be a few Cat fans there??
ELITE EIGHT:
5. Duke - I'm getting less and less gun shy about my take on the Devils everytime I see them play...but still have an ounce of trepidation after the way they eveaporated in conference play and the tourney. That said, they are number 5...and then there is a drop. I'd be comfortable with them in the Final Five is such a thing existed.
Is there a classier act in college hoops than Coach K? The Dukies played a neutral court game with Iowa State in their annual tradition of bringing a game to a veteran player's hometown to play in front of friends and family. This time, John Scheyer did not disappoint, playing brilliantly and continuing his surprising First Team All-American campaign (and yes, he would have my vote once my ballot arrives....waiting...hmmm....)
6. Syracuse - Perhaps the loss to Pitt wasn't so bad in retrospect? We'll know more in a few weeks. What I do know, is that aside from that blip (where I thought Pitt just caught fire from behind the arc against the zone), they've looked like a Final Four caliber team. Great guard play, an All-American swingman in Wesley Johnson and some bangers underneath. Still love this team, and the bounce back win over Memphis shows me they are mentally tough as well.
7. West Virginia - Losing to Purdue is not a big deal. They should have lost to Marquette, but didn't. That said, this team has loads of talent and is dangerous. They are seventh, but I think I'd prefer to have them eighth, and leave the seventh slot open. There is that clear of a gap between the Top Six so far this season and the rest of the pack. Let's see if the 'Eers can maintain their focus and win two they should (Notre Dame and USF) before hosting Syracuse next weekend.
8.Kansas State - The Wildcats are just kind of hovering for the time being. I'm not sure they are the 8th best team in the country but am looking forward to getting a read on them this weekend with a trip to Missouri and a Tuesday visit from Texas A&M. Oh, and there's a little trip from Texas next weekend as well...
Sweet and lurking: The next tier
9. Michigan State - Is the run starting? It usually comes around February, until next thing you know, the Spartans are the dangerous #2 seed no one wants in their Region. The difference this year? They were as high as #2 in many national polls until a few early losses knocked them off the radar. The solid win over Wisconsin was impressive. Although there are no "gimmes" in the Big Ten (save for Iowa) their next seven games are all realistically "should wins" with the possible exception of a trip to Minnesota. Expect the Spartans to be right in the thivk of the Big Ten race when an exciting pair of games with Purdue rolls around this February.
10. Ole Miss - Maybe a little high considering the two losses are to upper echelon Big East teams, Villanova and West Virginia, which could suggest they are not a top tier team. Their inside play is uneven at best and not always pretty to watch. However, the old axiom that guard play wins in the tourney bodes well for Ole Miss who boasts the most underrated backcourt in the country.
11. Villanova - Wow, it seems like the #11 hole is where we weekly bury the upcoming prospects of some unsuspecting mid-major. Last edition we offered Temple up to the basketball Gods, only to have them sacrificed on the Jayhawks alter. This week, we flirted with a few of our mid-major darlings, but were compelled to concede the spot belongs to Villanova. I think it is becoming my silent accidental bias, but I am just never sold on these guys, despite the tourney success every year with Scottie Reynolds and Jay Wright. I am curious to see how they handle a visit from tough luck 1-2 Marquette and their trip to Louisville on Tuesday.
12. Connecticut - They have three losses by a combined total of fourteen points. The losses: Duke, Kentucky and at Cincinnati. They have a few holes, but much like Carolina I would be fearful of this team in March. They have one of the highest ceilings of any Big East team.
13. Northern Iowa - Yeah, I'm aware they are unranked in the polls. That's because most voters don't realize that good basketball happens outside the Big Six conferences, Memphis and Gonzaga. The Missouri Valley is consistently incredibly balanced and good. The Panthers are 4-0 in league play with wins over three of the top challengers (all by comfortable margins); Southern Illinois, Creighton and Missouri State. They have a tricky trip to Illinois State tomorrow (which I have probably effectively hexed them in...)
14. Wake Forest - I'm not sure why we all collectively forgot about the Deac's heading into this season. Sure, they miss early entries Johnson and Teague, but still have All-American candidate Al-Farouq Aminu dominating the paint. Admittedly this spot could have just as easily gone to Miami, Florida State, North Carolina (who I refuse to give up on!) and possibly even Virginia Tech. However, I give Wake the nod after completing a month without a loss that included wins over Gonzaga, NC State, Richmond and Xavier.
The Demon Deacons have a tough stretch with a trip to Miami tomorrow, a visit from Maryland Tuesday, then consecutive trips to Durham and Chapel Hill.
So in all likliehood, we have also put a well-timed hex on Wake! That said, go 2-2, and life is fine. Emerge 3-1 and this spot is more than well earned; it's too low.
15. Gonzaga - We are officially absolving them for the Duke disaster, figuring they are not the first or the last team to get humiliated on a bad day against the Dukies. They followed it up by winning at Oklahoma and at Illinois. Let's see how they handle the next, and most difficult remaining, stretch of the season: AT Portland tomorrow, AT St Mary's on Tuesday and AT San Diego next weekend. Win those three and they grab the improved WCC by the throat and can begin focusing on earning a Top 4 seed for March. Goodness knows they've played the schedule to merit it.
16. Rhode Island - Last week we honored USC with our final slot. They rewarded us by sacrificing their hoops program to save Pete Carrol's Golden Goose and banned themselves from post season play. So from here on in, they are similarly banned from Bracketeering. If you aren't going to the Big Dance, then just go away.
This edition's beneficiary? How about the Rams? They are 12-1, and are playing in the Nation's sixth best conference. Yes, the A-10 is clearly better than the Pac-10. Get over it BCS honks.
This Sunday's Temple v. Rhode Island game is one of the first real gems of many in A-10 conference play. After Temple, they get a few easier tests before back-to-back roadies at Xavier and Dayton to end Januaury. By then we'll have a pretty good read on how the A-10 is going to shake out. For now, we give the Rams the nod, but acknowledge Temple, Dayton and Xavier could all win the league, and expect some pressure from Richmond and maybe even Charlotte and George Washington.
Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Cal is a disaster, I've all but given up on the Bears. Oklahoma is approaching that status as well. Seton Hall seemed formidable but is 0-3 in BEast play and is certainly on the ropes. Xavier is disappointing at 9-5, but have taken very few bad losses. They are a 4 or 5 game win streak away from being relevant again. Butler is not in terrible shape, but needs to win their league more than they have in year's past after an unimpressive and uneven non-conference performance.
Is it fair to label Portland a disappointment? Consider that if not for an avalanche of early attention from beating UCLA (who we now know sucks out loud), and a injury/suspension ridden Minnesota team, would anyone have really cared much about the Pilots? Either way, after expectations heightened they responded with losses to Portland State, Idaho, Washington and Nevada. They are not an at-large team anymore, and will need to upset Gonzaga tomorrow to have any life left in their fading chances.
It isn't fair to label these two teams a bust, but I am sure Northwestern and Ohio State were hoping for better conference starts. The good news for Ohio State is Evan Turner's back in plenty of time to save the season. Unfortunately for NW, Kevin Coble is nowhere in sight and things are looking bleak for ending the most famous tourney drought in the country.
Half Court Heaves: Teams outside the common radar worth keeping an eye on
I usually just list the teams you may not have heard of, this week we include a few more teams from power conferences that have a good chance to contend for a bid. My near-locks are bolded. Teams that are strong enough that they could mess things up by losing the conference tourney and swiping a possible at-large are italicized.
Miami, Florida State, Pitt, Louisville, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Vermont, Richmond, Xavier, Dayton, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northern Colorado, Denver, Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Coastal Carliona, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, William & Mary, Old Dominion, UAB, Tulsa, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Harvard, Siena, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Murray State, Washington, Washington State, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Western Carolina, Texas San-Antonio, St. Mary's, Louisiana Tech (though very doubtful they snag an at-large judging by historical WAC results)
For our neophytes, a quick synopsis of the methodology employed here: 1. We do not care about the AP and coaches poll, wins and losses do not move you up or down a prescribed number of slots. 2. We do our best to weigh both performance, but also a little predictive nature as well, meaning not just what you have done, but also waht our eyes tell us you can do. 3. You are welcome to piss, moan and complain about our rankings. We enjoy the emails, and have learned several new creatives profanities from you. So, Mazel Tov, and Happy New Year.
Enjoy the decade's first edition of Bracketeering.
FINAL FOUR:
1. Texas - I definitely flirted with dropping the Horns this week after a few somnambulistic performances against UT Corpus Christi and Arkansas. However, don't most good team go through a few little lulls here and there, especially in games against lesser competition? What I do know is that when the big boys came to play, the Horns beat 'em by double digits. They win a lot of games late, if for no other reason than they have tremendous depth. The general fan is more familiar with the names on Kansas and Kentucky's rosters, but the Horns are ten deep, athletic and balanced. For now - they keep our top slot once again.
2. Kansas - Some people will overreact to the close call at home against Cornell, but not us. The Red are good. Even better? The stern test of the Jayhawks before the rigors of confere4nce play commence. It has been a long time since they were tested. It is good to find out who your Alpha Dog is before everything is on the line in March. And if there was any doubt, there is no longer. It's Sherron Collins. His numbers aren't spectacular; and therein lies his greatest strength on my POY ballot. He is assimilating all the talent available with aplomb, and gives them everything you want from a PG who will be contending for a National Title. So, yeah, I've come around on Collins.Oh, and the dismantling of a good Temple team on the road was as brilliant as a team has played this year. Not this team. Any team.
3. Purdue - I'm starting to really love this team. They share the ball better than any team in the nation, and remind me a lot of the 2006-2007 Gator squad. They have good players with clearly, and perfectly defined roles. They have NBA talent with Johnson, Hummel and E'Twan Moore. They have the best glue guy in country in Chris Kramer and have a functional bench. They are not more talented per se than our #4 team, but gut instict tells me they are a little better as a team.
This is a huge "show me" stretch coming up for the Boilers with a trip to the Kohl Center tomorrow (where the Badgers have already beaten Duke) and a visit from the once again Evan Turner-led Buckeyes on Tuesday. Win both? Final Four talk has to heat up beyond Boiling in West Lafayette.
4. Kentucky - Fourth? Last week I have them #2, they handle Louisville, I write a "Run the Table" column...and now drop them to fourth? It's not an indictment of the Cats, it's simply that Kansas and Purdue looked brilliant the past week, and the Cats are still a little more potential than polish. That said, with Wall and Cousins blossoming more every week, it is getting harder and harder to see this team not making the short drive to Indy this April. Think there'd be a few Cat fans there??
ELITE EIGHT:
5. Duke - I'm getting less and less gun shy about my take on the Devils everytime I see them play...but still have an ounce of trepidation after the way they eveaporated in conference play and the tourney. That said, they are number 5...and then there is a drop. I'd be comfortable with them in the Final Five is such a thing existed.Is there a classier act in college hoops than Coach K? The Dukies played a neutral court game with Iowa State in their annual tradition of bringing a game to a veteran player's hometown to play in front of friends and family. This time, John Scheyer did not disappoint, playing brilliantly and continuing his surprising First Team All-American campaign (and yes, he would have my vote once my ballot arrives....waiting...hmmm....)
6. Syracuse - Perhaps the loss to Pitt wasn't so bad in retrospect? We'll know more in a few weeks. What I do know, is that aside from that blip (where I thought Pitt just caught fire from behind the arc against the zone), they've looked like a Final Four caliber team. Great guard play, an All-American swingman in Wesley Johnson and some bangers underneath. Still love this team, and the bounce back win over Memphis shows me they are mentally tough as well.
7. West Virginia - Losing to Purdue is not a big deal. They should have lost to Marquette, but didn't. That said, this team has loads of talent and is dangerous. They are seventh, but I think I'd prefer to have them eighth, and leave the seventh slot open. There is that clear of a gap between the Top Six so far this season and the rest of the pack. Let's see if the 'Eers can maintain their focus and win two they should (Notre Dame and USF) before hosting Syracuse next weekend.
8.Kansas State - The Wildcats are just kind of hovering for the time being. I'm not sure they are the 8th best team in the country but am looking forward to getting a read on them this weekend with a trip to Missouri and a Tuesday visit from Texas A&M. Oh, and there's a little trip from Texas next weekend as well...
Sweet and lurking: The next tier
9. Michigan State - Is the run starting? It usually comes around February, until next thing you know, the Spartans are the dangerous #2 seed no one wants in their Region. The difference this year? They were as high as #2 in many national polls until a few early losses knocked them off the radar. The solid win over Wisconsin was impressive. Although there are no "gimmes" in the Big Ten (save for Iowa) their next seven games are all realistically "should wins" with the possible exception of a trip to Minnesota. Expect the Spartans to be right in the thivk of the Big Ten race when an exciting pair of games with Purdue rolls around this February.
10. Ole Miss - Maybe a little high considering the two losses are to upper echelon Big East teams, Villanova and West Virginia, which could suggest they are not a top tier team. Their inside play is uneven at best and not always pretty to watch. However, the old axiom that guard play wins in the tourney bodes well for Ole Miss who boasts the most underrated backcourt in the country.
11. Villanova - Wow, it seems like the #11 hole is where we weekly bury the upcoming prospects of some unsuspecting mid-major. Last edition we offered Temple up to the basketball Gods, only to have them sacrificed on the Jayhawks alter. This week, we flirted with a few of our mid-major darlings, but were compelled to concede the spot belongs to Villanova. I think it is becoming my silent accidental bias, but I am just never sold on these guys, despite the tourney success every year with Scottie Reynolds and Jay Wright. I am curious to see how they handle a visit from tough luck 1-2 Marquette and their trip to Louisville on Tuesday.
12. Connecticut - They have three losses by a combined total of fourteen points. The losses: Duke, Kentucky and at Cincinnati. They have a few holes, but much like Carolina I would be fearful of this team in March. They have one of the highest ceilings of any Big East team.
13. Northern Iowa - Yeah, I'm aware they are unranked in the polls. That's because most voters don't realize that good basketball happens outside the Big Six conferences, Memphis and Gonzaga. The Missouri Valley is consistently incredibly balanced and good. The Panthers are 4-0 in league play with wins over three of the top challengers (all by comfortable margins); Southern Illinois, Creighton and Missouri State. They have a tricky trip to Illinois State tomorrow (which I have probably effectively hexed them in...)
14. Wake Forest - I'm not sure why we all collectively forgot about the Deac's heading into this season. Sure, they miss early entries Johnson and Teague, but still have All-American candidate Al-Farouq Aminu dominating the paint. Admittedly this spot could have just as easily gone to Miami, Florida State, North Carolina (who I refuse to give up on!) and possibly even Virginia Tech. However, I give Wake the nod after completing a month without a loss that included wins over Gonzaga, NC State, Richmond and Xavier.The Demon Deacons have a tough stretch with a trip to Miami tomorrow, a visit from Maryland Tuesday, then consecutive trips to Durham and Chapel Hill.
So in all likliehood, we have also put a well-timed hex on Wake! That said, go 2-2, and life is fine. Emerge 3-1 and this spot is more than well earned; it's too low.
15. Gonzaga - We are officially absolving them for the Duke disaster, figuring they are not the first or the last team to get humiliated on a bad day against the Dukies. They followed it up by winning at Oklahoma and at Illinois. Let's see how they handle the next, and most difficult remaining, stretch of the season: AT Portland tomorrow, AT St Mary's on Tuesday and AT San Diego next weekend. Win those three and they grab the improved WCC by the throat and can begin focusing on earning a Top 4 seed for March. Goodness knows they've played the schedule to merit it.
16. Rhode Island - Last week we honored USC with our final slot. They rewarded us by sacrificing their hoops program to save Pete Carrol's Golden Goose and banned themselves from post season play. So from here on in, they are similarly banned from Bracketeering. If you aren't going to the Big Dance, then just go away.
This edition's beneficiary? How about the Rams? They are 12-1, and are playing in the Nation's sixth best conference. Yes, the A-10 is clearly better than the Pac-10. Get over it BCS honks.
This Sunday's Temple v. Rhode Island game is one of the first real gems of many in A-10 conference play. After Temple, they get a few easier tests before back-to-back roadies at Xavier and Dayton to end Januaury. By then we'll have a pretty good read on how the A-10 is going to shake out. For now, we give the Rams the nod, but acknowledge Temple, Dayton and Xavier could all win the league, and expect some pressure from Richmond and maybe even Charlotte and George Washington.
Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Cal is a disaster, I've all but given up on the Bears. Oklahoma is approaching that status as well. Seton Hall seemed formidable but is 0-3 in BEast play and is certainly on the ropes. Xavier is disappointing at 9-5, but have taken very few bad losses. They are a 4 or 5 game win streak away from being relevant again. Butler is not in terrible shape, but needs to win their league more than they have in year's past after an unimpressive and uneven non-conference performance.
Is it fair to label Portland a disappointment? Consider that if not for an avalanche of early attention from beating UCLA (who we now know sucks out loud), and a injury/suspension ridden Minnesota team, would anyone have really cared much about the Pilots? Either way, after expectations heightened they responded with losses to Portland State, Idaho, Washington and Nevada. They are not an at-large team anymore, and will need to upset Gonzaga tomorrow to have any life left in their fading chances.
It isn't fair to label these two teams a bust, but I am sure Northwestern and Ohio State were hoping for better conference starts. The good news for Ohio State is Evan Turner's back in plenty of time to save the season. Unfortunately for NW, Kevin Coble is nowhere in sight and things are looking bleak for ending the most famous tourney drought in the country.
Half Court Heaves: Teams outside the common radar worth keeping an eye on
I usually just list the teams you may not have heard of, this week we include a few more teams from power conferences that have a good chance to contend for a bid. My near-locks are bolded. Teams that are strong enough that they could mess things up by losing the conference tourney and swiping a possible at-large are italicized.
Miami, Florida State, Pitt, Louisville, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Vermont, Richmond, Xavier, Dayton, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northern Colorado, Denver, Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Coastal Carliona, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, William & Mary, Old Dominion, UAB, Tulsa, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Harvard, Siena, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Murray State, Washington, Washington State, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Western Carolina, Texas San-Antonio, St. Mary's, Louisiana Tech (though very doubtful they snag an at-large judging by historical WAC results)
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A Tough 0-2 Marq
The Marquette Warriors might look back on this week and cringe on Selection Sunday. Because, unfortunately, close doesn't count much with pollsters. Three days after losing in Morgantown on DeShaun Butler's buzzer beater, the Warriors dropped another game in heartbreaking fashion, this time at home to Villanova.
Scottie Reynolds penetrated, drew contact and hit a leaner in the lane with 16 seconds to go to finally give Villanova the lead late. Marquette missed from point-blank range with three seconds to go and dropped to 0-2 in the Big East. Not only are they winless in conference, they missed out on two valuable chances to add a marquee win (both are currently ranked in the Top 10) on their resume. In a conference as fiesty and deep as the Big East, these two games could likely be the difference between the Big Dance and the NIT.
Scottie Reynolds penetrated, drew contact and hit a leaner in the lane with 16 seconds to go to finally give Villanova the lead late. Marquette missed from point-blank range with three seconds to go and dropped to 0-2 in the Big East. Not only are they winless in conference, they missed out on two valuable chances to add a marquee win (both are currently ranked in the Top 10) on their resume. In a conference as fiesty and deep as the Big East, these two games could likely be the difference between the Big Dance and the NIT.
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Feeding the Fire
Yup. For those of you counting the Maniac has now hit on 8 of 9 picks, nearly every one of them not just right, but almost exactly mapped in terms of tempo and margin. SO - what do we have in store for today?
Here's some quick Sunday picks:
No official pick here, but I have a feeling UCF is going to give Notre Dame a handful and even pull off an upset today in the Joyce Center.
1PM - South Carolina is banged up, Clemson is coming off a stunning second half twenty-plus point collapse against Illinois. The Tigers will be jacked up and focused to host in state rival USC and cover the 7 point spread.
7PM - Arizona is 3-3, but has lost multiple OT and two point heartbreakers. Tonight they are getting 8 points at less-than stellar Oklahoma. This line fluttered too far after Oklahoma laid the lumber to Arkansas. It looks good in the boxscore, but again, Arkansas has been combing the campus to find bodies to dress. It is akin to beating a low-major this year. Give me Nic Wise and Sean Miller's Cats to cover.
7:30PM - Touch this game at your own peril. Villanova takes their #3 ranking to take on the Terps in DC...and is laying only 2? Seems low, but would anyone be surprised to see Grevies Vasquez go off for like 27-8-8 today in an upset? I wouldn't. I think 'Nova should be laying more but am staying away from an official pick on this one.
SEASON RECORD: 21-12-1 ATS
Here's some quick Sunday picks:
No official pick here, but I have a feeling UCF is going to give Notre Dame a handful and even pull off an upset today in the Joyce Center.
1PM - South Carolina is banged up, Clemson is coming off a stunning second half twenty-plus point collapse against Illinois. The Tigers will be jacked up and focused to host in state rival USC and cover the 7 point spread.
7PM - Arizona is 3-3, but has lost multiple OT and two point heartbreakers. Tonight they are getting 8 points at less-than stellar Oklahoma. This line fluttered too far after Oklahoma laid the lumber to Arkansas. It looks good in the boxscore, but again, Arkansas has been combing the campus to find bodies to dress. It is akin to beating a low-major this year. Give me Nic Wise and Sean Miller's Cats to cover.
7:30PM - Touch this game at your own peril. Villanova takes their #3 ranking to take on the Terps in DC...and is laying only 2? Seems low, but would anyone be surprised to see Grevies Vasquez go off for like 27-8-8 today in an upset? I wouldn't. I think 'Nova should be laying more but am staying away from an official pick on this one.
SEASON RECORD: 21-12-1 ATS
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Bracketeering - November 30th, 2009
I love Feast Week. It provides a glimpse into who is what more than any other sport. Unlike on the gridiron where we wait until bowl season to find out who a gaggle of computer's googled into the top spot, we get ample opportunities to see who can play. And who cannot.In this week's Bracketeering we have a lot of motion. Team's like Butler undid all the shedding of the "small school upstart" label with two losses and one "win" over UCLA at the buzzer. Tulsa seemed primed to take up the mantle of C-USA contender; then lost by 8 to Missouri State. Portland seemed destined to land on the Maniac's Rankings...until West Virginia changed their flight plan with a routine win in the 76 Classic championship over the Pilots.
Staying out West, Gonzaga moves very little in Bracketeering despite rocketing up the AP and USA Today polls; the reason? We already had 'em in the right spot.
Not that we got 'em all right. Or do now. But I'll take us over the polls that reward idle hands and big names more than tough losses and some scheduling gumption!
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FINAL FOUR:
1. Texas - They have slept walked through a few first halves, but have shown nothing to dissuade the Maniac into dropping them from the top perch. They have also been less tested than the rest of the Final Four; for now. They have an easy week, but face teams that will at least make them run in Long Beach State, and USC. At the end of the month it is game on with back-to-backers against North Carolina and Michigan State.
2. Syracuse - Nothing exceptionally noteworthy this week, the Orange earned this perch in MSG several weeks ago. They follow up their wins against Cornell and Columbia with a tough one with Colgate and Maine. Ah...now that's the Big East pre-con schedule we are used to! Next Thursday's (12/10) tilt with Florida is looking better and better every day.
3. Duke - Too slow? Too soft? How about too good. The Devils neutral court emasculation of UConn was impressive. It might be too soon to put them ahead of Kansas, Kentucky and Villanova, but to this point the Devils have done more.
4. Kansas - Each year there is a team I am slow to come around on. For some reason, that's Kansas this year. I know they are looking great, I know Collins has done a nice job involving the whole team, Alderich has looked great and Xavier Henry gives them the scoring punch from the 3. This team is built real similar to Duke 1992, with Henry playing the Grant Hill role. However, the only real game they played found them tangled with a yet-to-develop Memphis team. It will be another 3 weeks before we get to see the 'Hawks play a real game. Not sure how they are the near unanimous #1 in the polls when Syracuse, Duke and others have done so much more.
ELITE EIGHT:
5. Purdue - The gutty win over a very good Tennessee team speaks volumes about the character of this club. This team has one of the best, most cohesive and experienced Starting 5's in the country. Now the test for the grown-upversion of the Baby Boilers to find a few "babies" to round out the rotation.
6. Villanova - My take? This is about where the Cats peak. They have some nice close resume wins over solid competition, but the eye test makes them seem like they are in for a grueling, tough Big East slate. Syracuse, West Virginia and UConn are deeper and stronger. I think Georgetown, Cincy, Marquette will give them heck as well.
7. Kentucky - We've chronicled some of the Wildcats' early season struggles at length here, so let's just leave it at this: Play like they did against Miami (OH), Sam Houston State and Stanford and the Cats will lose two of their next three (UNC and @UConn).
8. West Virginia - They have played a few less games than most of the top teams, but their performance this week launches them up in Bracketeering. Yes, the wins are over Long Beach St, a solid and underrated Texas A&M, and Portland, but the way they won was impressive. This team shoots the ball well from the perimeter, passes it unselfishly and possesses the traditional Huggins' athleticism and pressure D. As Ebanks gets acclimated with the team, they will continue to get even better. Man the Big East is really loaded...again.
Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)
9. North Carolina - The Syracuse win really doesn't bother me. It is the fact they were tied with five minutes to go at home against Nevada that pushes them out of my Elite Eight. I still think once they figure out who is going to initiate the offense this is one of the five best teams in the country.
10. Tennessee - A one point loss to Purdue doesn't hurt their standings in my book. The lack of a PG does.
11. Gonzaga - Hard to believe the team that was underrated so long that they became overrated was unrated at the begining of the season. OK, that was a mouthful. Let's make it easy; with wins over Cincinnati, Wisconsin and a gutty 2-point loss in Chrysler Arena to MSU the Zags are really good. Will they stay this high in the polls? Unlikely. WIth December games that look like: Wake Forest, Davidson, @Duke, @Illinois, then a conference first three of: @Portland, @St. Mary's and @San Diego. Regardless of the outcome, that is a recipe for tourney-readiness.
12. UConn -Duke hammered them. They need a SF/SG who can create to be elite. However, don't let that fool you into thinking this team isn't very good..
13. Ohio State - Evan Turner is still #1 on my POY ballot, Ohio State is still a dangerous team who could win the Big Ten and make the short drive to Indy this April. Wednesday's Big Ten/ACC Challenge matchup vs. Florida State is a good opportunity to solidify their ranking.
14. Florida - I wasn't sure what to make of the nearly 20 point win over Florida State; then Florida State won three straight in the Old Spice Classic (including over a good Marquette team). Then they took down Michigan State on Friday and it is hard to over look the Gators at this point. Are they going to be a Sweet 16 team in March? I'm not quite sure of that. But I would be willing to wager they snap a two-year NIT streak this Spring. We are looking forward to next week's game against Syracuse.
15. Michigan State - I called them the most over-ranked team before the season's outset. Florida proved my right. I'd be stunned if the Gators are a Top Ten team this season. By the end of the year? Perhaps the Spartans will be; that is Izzo's traditional M.O. For now? It's hard to have them any higher than this. Of course, win tomorrow night against North Carolina and all is forgiven.
16. Up for grabs - I can't really put anyone a definitive step forward as each team listed has some great wins and a tough loss that makes them loom as a question mark (except for Georgetown who gets a "loss" from me for the 46-45 snoozer with Temple and the subsequent dodging). Cincinnati, Georgetown, Florida State, Marquette, Texas A&M, Washington (show me something this week @ Texas Tech, the 63-59'er over Montana goes in the "L" column in our book), Portland, Clemson, Miami(FL)
Closing In...
UNLV, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Memphis, Richmond, Oklahoma St,
Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on:
Rhode Island, Washington St. (6-0 with a 37-point win over San Diego yesterday), Xavier, Butler (tough losses, but still a Top-25 level team, Dayton, St. John's, Seton Hall, Northern Colorado, Northwestern, Baylor, Iowa State, New Mexico
FINAL FOUR:
1. Texas - They have slept walked through a few first halves, but have shown nothing to dissuade the Maniac into dropping them from the top perch. They have also been less tested than the rest of the Final Four; for now. They have an easy week, but face teams that will at least make them run in Long Beach State, and USC. At the end of the month it is game on with back-to-backers against North Carolina and Michigan State.
2. Syracuse - Nothing exceptionally noteworthy this week, the Orange earned this perch in MSG several weeks ago. They follow up their wins against Cornell and Columbia with a tough one with Colgate and Maine. Ah...now that's the Big East pre-con schedule we are used to! Next Thursday's (12/10) tilt with Florida is looking better and better every day.
3. Duke - Too slow? Too soft? How about too good. The Devils neutral court emasculation of UConn was impressive. It might be too soon to put them ahead of Kansas, Kentucky and Villanova, but to this point the Devils have done more.
4. Kansas - Each year there is a team I am slow to come around on. For some reason, that's Kansas this year. I know they are looking great, I know Collins has done a nice job involving the whole team, Alderich has looked great and Xavier Henry gives them the scoring punch from the 3. This team is built real similar to Duke 1992, with Henry playing the Grant Hill role. However, the only real game they played found them tangled with a yet-to-develop Memphis team. It will be another 3 weeks before we get to see the 'Hawks play a real game. Not sure how they are the near unanimous #1 in the polls when Syracuse, Duke and others have done so much more.
ELITE EIGHT:
5. Purdue - The gutty win over a very good Tennessee team speaks volumes about the character of this club. This team has one of the best, most cohesive and experienced Starting 5's in the country. Now the test for the grown-upversion of the Baby Boilers to find a few "babies" to round out the rotation.
6. Villanova - My take? This is about where the Cats peak. They have some nice close resume wins over solid competition, but the eye test makes them seem like they are in for a grueling, tough Big East slate. Syracuse, West Virginia and UConn are deeper and stronger. I think Georgetown, Cincy, Marquette will give them heck as well.
7. Kentucky - We've chronicled some of the Wildcats' early season struggles at length here, so let's just leave it at this: Play like they did against Miami (OH), Sam Houston State and Stanford and the Cats will lose two of their next three (UNC and @UConn).
8. West Virginia - They have played a few less games than most of the top teams, but their performance this week launches them up in Bracketeering. Yes, the wins are over Long Beach St, a solid and underrated Texas A&M, and Portland, but the way they won was impressive. This team shoots the ball well from the perimeter, passes it unselfishly and possesses the traditional Huggins' athleticism and pressure D. As Ebanks gets acclimated with the team, they will continue to get even better. Man the Big East is really loaded...again.
Sweet and lurking: The next tier (in order)
9. North Carolina - The Syracuse win really doesn't bother me. It is the fact they were tied with five minutes to go at home against Nevada that pushes them out of my Elite Eight. I still think once they figure out who is going to initiate the offense this is one of the five best teams in the country.
10. Tennessee - A one point loss to Purdue doesn't hurt their standings in my book. The lack of a PG does.
11. Gonzaga - Hard to believe the team that was underrated so long that they became overrated was unrated at the begining of the season. OK, that was a mouthful. Let's make it easy; with wins over Cincinnati, Wisconsin and a gutty 2-point loss in Chrysler Arena to MSU the Zags are really good. Will they stay this high in the polls? Unlikely. WIth December games that look like: Wake Forest, Davidson, @Duke, @Illinois, then a conference first three of: @Portland, @St. Mary's and @San Diego. Regardless of the outcome, that is a recipe for tourney-readiness.
12. UConn -Duke hammered them. They need a SF/SG who can create to be elite. However, don't let that fool you into thinking this team isn't very good..
13. Ohio State - Evan Turner is still #1 on my POY ballot, Ohio State is still a dangerous team who could win the Big Ten and make the short drive to Indy this April. Wednesday's Big Ten/ACC Challenge matchup vs. Florida State is a good opportunity to solidify their ranking.
14. Florida - I wasn't sure what to make of the nearly 20 point win over Florida State; then Florida State won three straight in the Old Spice Classic (including over a good Marquette team). Then they took down Michigan State on Friday and it is hard to over look the Gators at this point. Are they going to be a Sweet 16 team in March? I'm not quite sure of that. But I would be willing to wager they snap a two-year NIT streak this Spring. We are looking forward to next week's game against Syracuse.
15. Michigan State - I called them the most over-ranked team before the season's outset. Florida proved my right. I'd be stunned if the Gators are a Top Ten team this season. By the end of the year? Perhaps the Spartans will be; that is Izzo's traditional M.O. For now? It's hard to have them any higher than this. Of course, win tomorrow night against North Carolina and all is forgiven.
16. Up for grabs - I can't really put anyone a definitive step forward as each team listed has some great wins and a tough loss that makes them loom as a question mark (except for Georgetown who gets a "loss" from me for the 46-45 snoozer with Temple and the subsequent dodging). Cincinnati, Georgetown, Florida State, Marquette, Texas A&M, Washington (show me something this week @ Texas Tech, the 63-59'er over Montana goes in the "L" column in our book), Portland, Clemson, Miami(FL)
Closing In...
UNLV, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Memphis, Richmond, Oklahoma St,
Half Court Heaves: Long shots worth keeping an eye on:
Rhode Island, Washington St. (6-0 with a 37-point win over San Diego yesterday), Xavier, Butler (tough losses, but still a Top-25 level team, Dayton, St. John's, Seton Hall, Northern Colorado, Northwestern, Baylor, Iowa State, New Mexico
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Thankfully...It's Early
The Maniac was right on track tabbing 'Nova as overrated, and admits to giving a little too little credit to Jim Laranaga's George Mason Patriots. However, despite the close score of today's game, much like Kansas and Memphis' game earlier this week; it was ugly.
Don't worry coach, we believe you...
Villanova was shooting the bonus by the 12 minute mark in the second half and a whopping four players fouled out. The Wildcats survive into round two thank to the first collegiate field goal from freshman big man Isaiah Armwood after Scottie Reynolds was bottled up into the lane. Coach Wright insists his Cats aren't the sixth best team in the nation, despite the early polls. He'll get no argument here. I'm looking forward to seeing UConn and West Virginia still, but the early showings from Georgetown, Syracuse and Nova have to leave one thinking the BEast might not be quite so mighty this March.
Don't worry coach, we believe you...Villanova was shooting the bonus by the 12 minute mark in the second half and a whopping four players fouled out. The Wildcats survive into round two thank to the first collegiate field goal from freshman big man Isaiah Armwood after Scottie Reynolds was bottled up into the lane. Coach Wright insists his Cats aren't the sixth best team in the nation, despite the early polls. He'll get no argument here. I'm looking forward to seeing UConn and West Virginia still, but the early showings from Georgetown, Syracuse and Nova have to leave one thinking the BEast might not be quite so mighty this March.
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puerto rico tipoff
This year Puerto Rico has assembled an interesting and deep field, with only George Mason and Boston U. being clearly outclassed, though the Patriots do bring mid-major name cache' to the party.
The best game of the entire 3-day tourney might be the very first to tip as Dayton squares off against what should be a vastly improved Georgia Tech squad. How high are people on the Jackets and freshman standout Derrick Favors? Consider that the Jackets were 13-19 last season, yet enter the game ranked #21 in the country. And for good reason. Add in Gani Lawal and Iman Shumpert and Paul Hewitt might have his best team on campus since 2002.
Dayton is an experience-laden team poised to build on last year's NCAA tournament opening round win. Tabbed as the early season favorite in the A-10, and ranked #18 the Flyers have a chance on (early) national TV to rack up an huge early resume win for the profile.
This is a hard one to pick, but I'll take the Flyers experience over the Jackets promise in an exciting preview of two teams who hope to be playing well into March.
The second game features an interesting Villanova team which should be in mix for the Big East title all year against a down George Mason squad. Look for Villanova to cruise with relative ease.
The 5pm tilt is one that I'm way more excited for than the rankings and RPI's would merit. Ole Miss quietly has one of the best backcourts in the SEC with Warren and Terrico White. IU is in year two of the Tom Crean reclamation project and should make some substantial strides. It may not happen tomorrow, but write it down, Indiana will NOT finish eleventh in the Big Ten this year. I guarantee it.
The night cap gives an early look at Kansas State's Wally Judge who played sparingly in the Wildcats' first two contests. Kansas State has their sights set on improving on last year's NIT appearance. Picking up a few wins in Puerto Rico would go a long way toward that aim.
Games:
11:30 am - Dayton v. GA Tech
2:00 pm - George Mason v. Villanova
5:00 pm - Indiana v Mississippi
7:30 pm - Boston U v. Kansas State
Picks: Dayton, Villanova, Ole Miss and K-State, with Dayton beating Ole Miss in the Final.
(although I wouldn't be stunned if GA Tech beats the Flyers in the opener...)
.
The best game of the entire 3-day tourney might be the very first to tip as Dayton squares off against what should be a vastly improved Georgia Tech squad. How high are people on the Jackets and freshman standout Derrick Favors? Consider that the Jackets were 13-19 last season, yet enter the game ranked #21 in the country. And for good reason. Add in Gani Lawal and Iman Shumpert and Paul Hewitt might have his best team on campus since 2002.
Dayton is an experience-laden team poised to build on last year's NCAA tournament opening round win. Tabbed as the early season favorite in the A-10, and ranked #18 the Flyers have a chance on (early) national TV to rack up an huge early resume win for the profile.
This is a hard one to pick, but I'll take the Flyers experience over the Jackets promise in an exciting preview of two teams who hope to be playing well into March.
The second game features an interesting Villanova team which should be in mix for the Big East title all year against a down George Mason squad. Look for Villanova to cruise with relative ease.
The 5pm tilt is one that I'm way more excited for than the rankings and RPI's would merit. Ole Miss quietly has one of the best backcourts in the SEC with Warren and Terrico White. IU is in year two of the Tom Crean reclamation project and should make some substantial strides. It may not happen tomorrow, but write it down, Indiana will NOT finish eleventh in the Big Ten this year. I guarantee it.
The night cap gives an early look at Kansas State's Wally Judge who played sparingly in the Wildcats' first two contests. Kansas State has their sights set on improving on last year's NIT appearance. Picking up a few wins in Puerto Rico would go a long way toward that aim.
Games:
11:30 am - Dayton v. GA Tech
2:00 pm - George Mason v. Villanova
5:00 pm - Indiana v Mississippi
7:30 pm - Boston U v. Kansas State
Picks: Dayton, Villanova, Ole Miss and K-State, with Dayton beating Ole Miss in the Final.
(although I wouldn't be stunned if GA Tech beats the Flyers in the opener...)
.
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Previewing the East Region
Best First Round Game: UCLA v VCU. VCU is the upset pick de juor with Eric Maynor and the Rams history of befalling traditional giants (See: Duke, also in an 6-11 game). However the viewing public seems to have forgot the track record of the Bruins. UCLA has been to three straight Final Fours and despite some heavy losses from last year, still has Darrin Collison at point and Josh Shipp on the wing. More than half the people in the massive ESPN pool have VCU pulling the upset, but I tend to think Vegas is a little smarter. They have the Bruins as a 7.5 point favorite - one of the largest spreads for any game not involving a #1-#4 seed.
Forget the "upset" potential, just sit down to watch two of the countries best little point guards go head to head.
Best Player: If you have a soft spot in your heart for memories of Grant Hill gliding gracefully for four years at Duke, wait until you get a load of Gerald Henderson. He struggled through the first month of the season, but since January he has been the best player in the nation. His silky shooting touch and defensive tenacity get overshadowed by jaw-dropping athleticism. His emergence as a true superstar gives Duke a legitimate chance to win it all.
Most important player(s): Let's get to the point. More specifically, the point guards. It is a commonly cited axom that guard play wins in the NCAA's. There are four teams that will go precisely as far as their guards take them. For Villanova, Scottie Reynolds makes the engine go. Likewise for Texas's AJ Abrahams. Duke's revolving door at the point finally settled on freshman Elliot Williams. How he and senior Greg Paulus handle their split duties will determine much of the Dukies fate. The same for another freshman, Xavier PG Terrell Holloway. Holloway has big "little" shoes to fill as he tried to replicate the Elite Eight run spearheaded last year by Drew Lavender.
Worst Seeding: Hands down, easily the WORST seeding job of the entire tourney was Tennessee at a 9. The Maniac had them at a #5 winning the SEC Tourney, and a #6 after their loss. This is a team that finished 10-6 in an albiet down SEC, but still a far superior conference to the ones played in by Butler, Utah State, and Siena. They killed themselves out of conference with a spectacular schedule, and finished the season with good momentum. Their reward?? A ludicrous #9 seed and a date with Oklahoma State. Win that, and Pitt looms in round two.
Toughest Break: Florida State did more than enough to earn a Top 4 seed, but by falling to a #5 they a toss-up first round game rather than a should win #4v#13. They match up with Wisconsin, a tam famous for frustratingly slow, controlled tempo basketball. The Seminoles are far better team, but this is a terrible matchup for them.
Possible 2nd Round Gem: Should Florida State survive the Badgers, Xavier v. Florida State will be an extremely high level 2nd round game. The one I am salivating over is Tennessee getting a shot at Pitt. It is a good matchup for the Vols, as they enjoy the sloppy and physical scrambling game. They are every bit as athletic as Pitt, if not more so, and can likely put pressure on their guards and cause some problems.
Easiest to Root For: If Gonzaga has become "America's Team" then the Dukies have become College Basketball's Yankees. For some reason the clean-cut Blue Devils inspire more ire than any other school. That said, it would be easy to root Binghamton today. Tony Cornheiser's alma matter makes their first ever tourney appearance with a chance to slay the hated Goliath. It ain't happening, but easy to root for I suppose. Don't forget, Duke needed divine intervention to hold off #15 Belmont in last year's opener...
Maniac's Sweet Sixteen Picks:
Xavier over Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen (Bruce Pearl's Vols stunning Pitt in Rd 2)
Duke over UCLA (UCLA getting over Nova)
Duke beating X for the second time in 6 years to advance to the Final Four
Best First Round Game: UCLA v VCU. VCU is the upset pick de juor with Eric Maynor and the Rams history of befalling traditional giants (See: Duke, also in an 6-11 game). However the viewing public seems to have forgot the track record of the Bruins. UCLA has been to three straight Final Fours and despite some heavy losses from last year, still has Darrin Collison at point and Josh Shipp on the wing. More than half the people in the massive ESPN pool have VCU pulling the upset, but I tend to think Vegas is a little smarter. They have the Bruins as a 7.5 point favorite - one of the largest spreads for any game not involving a #1-#4 seed.
Forget the "upset" potential, just sit down to watch two of the countries best little point guards go head to head.
Best Player: If you have a soft spot in your heart for memories of Grant Hill gliding gracefully for four years at Duke, wait until you get a load of Gerald Henderson. He struggled through the first month of the season, but since January he has been the best player in the nation. His silky shooting touch and defensive tenacity get overshadowed by jaw-dropping athleticism. His emergence as a true superstar gives Duke a legitimate chance to win it all.Most important player(s): Let's get to the point. More specifically, the point guards. It is a commonly cited axom that guard play wins in the NCAA's. There are four teams that will go precisely as far as their guards take them. For Villanova, Scottie Reynolds makes the engine go. Likewise for Texas's AJ Abrahams. Duke's revolving door at the point finally settled on freshman Elliot Williams. How he and senior Greg Paulus handle their split duties will determine much of the Dukies fate. The same for another freshman, Xavier PG Terrell Holloway. Holloway has big "little" shoes to fill as he tried to replicate the Elite Eight run spearheaded last year by Drew Lavender.
Worst Seeding: Hands down, easily the WORST seeding job of the entire tourney was Tennessee at a 9. The Maniac had them at a #5 winning the SEC Tourney, and a #6 after their loss. This is a team that finished 10-6 in an albiet down SEC, but still a far superior conference to the ones played in by Butler, Utah State, and Siena. They killed themselves out of conference with a spectacular schedule, and finished the season with good momentum. Their reward?? A ludicrous #9 seed and a date with Oklahoma State. Win that, and Pitt looms in round two.
Toughest Break: Florida State did more than enough to earn a Top 4 seed, but by falling to a #5 they a toss-up first round game rather than a should win #4v#13. They match up with Wisconsin, a tam famous for frustratingly slow, controlled tempo basketball. The Seminoles are far better team, but this is a terrible matchup for them.
Possible 2nd Round Gem: Should Florida State survive the Badgers, Xavier v. Florida State will be an extremely high level 2nd round game. The one I am salivating over is Tennessee getting a shot at Pitt. It is a good matchup for the Vols, as they enjoy the sloppy and physical scrambling game. They are every bit as athletic as Pitt, if not more so, and can likely put pressure on their guards and cause some problems.
Easiest to Root For: If Gonzaga has become "America's Team" then the Dukies have become College Basketball's Yankees. For some reason the clean-cut Blue Devils inspire more ire than any other school. That said, it would be easy to root Binghamton today. Tony Cornheiser's alma matter makes their first ever tourney appearance with a chance to slay the hated Goliath. It ain't happening, but easy to root for I suppose. Don't forget, Duke needed divine intervention to hold off #15 Belmont in last year's opener...Maniac's Sweet Sixteen Picks:
Xavier over Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen (Bruce Pearl's Vols stunning Pitt in Rd 2)
Duke over UCLA (UCLA getting over Nova)
Duke beating X for the second time in 6 years to advance to the Final Four
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Updating Your Portfolio - Pt 1
Just three weeks remain in the regular season, including conference tournaments and the 34 at large teams are starting to come a little more in focus.
Here is a stock report on the AP Top 25 poll:
#1 UConn - Hold. It remains to be seen how dire the impact of Dyson is to the Huskies. The Pitt loss was simply that; a loss to a very good Pitt team in a very hyped TV contest. Most of the nation wasn't tuning in when Villanova handled the Pathers easily a few weeks ago, ergo no "the sky is falling" talk had to be endured. Both Pitt and UConn are "Holds" as they are clearly two of the five best teams in the country.
#2 Oklahoma -BUY. This team is peaking and growing at the right time. Blake Griffin is the National POY, but the Sooners have more than that going for them. Wille Warren is the most complete freshman in the country right now and runs the team superbly. Austin Johnson has been filling it up and Taylor Griffin is a solid role player. They have flown pretty under the radar for a team that is about to become the #1 team in the nation on Monday, but make no mistake, the Sooners are legit.
#3 North Carolina - BUY. Still the best team in the country when they come to play. If you are scoring at home, they have done just that for 10 straight games now in the nation's deepest and most balanced conference.
#4 Pitt - HOLD. See above. Tons of talent, tons of toughness, but also tons of other years we have written the exact same thing about Pitt. Not knocking this team, it's just...show me in March...
#5 Memphis - SELL. Nothing like an abysmal schedule to shine over a few weaknesses. Yes, you still have to win the games on your schedule, but I am not buying that a Memphis team that was unranked four weeks ago is suddenly the 5th best team in the nation after fatteneing up on the C-USA. The Gonzaga win was an impressive one, but again, still not sure this is the 5th best team in the country.
#6 Michigan State - HOLD. Purdue handed them their can last night, and exposed some of the Spartans shooting weaknesses. That said, they have depth, quickness and toughness...and Coach Izzo. I liked them a little more in the underdog role, but still think this team could make some noise in March.
#7 Louisville - BUY. The Cards might have had the strangest week in the country; losing by 35 to Notre Dame, then winning by 40+ over DePaul. Let's erase that ND game, or at least file it as evidence that the Cards are capable of lapses. Then again, with the exception of Oklahoma, everyone else has proven the same thing this season. At the end of the day, gimme the talent, athleticism and Pitino in March.
#8. Wake Forest - SELL. Has anyone else noticed the Deacons are only 6-4 in conference? Their lone non-conference wins of note are BYU and Baylor. This is a good ball club, not a great one. I think getting much further than the first weekend is a stretch for this year's squad (though easily Top 5 pre-season 2010 if everyone stays.)
#9. Duke - BUY. While everyone else is selling the Blue Devils like crazy, the Maniac continues to hold. The Clemson loss was disconcerting for sure, but nearly every team takes one or two of those through the course of the season. With the emergence of Henderson this team has offensive options like very few others. If they can find someway to steady the PG play and get Singler some help on the boards, they can still make a Final Four run.
#10. Marquette - SELL. The Maniac has been warning you about the Eagles final five games for about two months now. Starting this week, we will find out if he was right. They are a sure fire 2-3 seed right now, don't be surprised if it is a 5-6 in three weeks...
#11. Missouri - HOLD. I have been touting them all year and saying how underrated the Tigers were... but at #11 we might have reached our apex here. No possible way this is a Final Four team, but getting out of the first weekend would still be a nice accomplishment given preseason expectations.
#12. Villanova - BUY. Not only have the Wildcats impressed with their five game win streak over Syracuse, Cincy, Pitt, Providence and Marquette (yes, they JUST lost to WVU), but they also have a finishing schedule that should be at least a 4-2 or even a 5-1 finish. That puts them well aligned for a 3 or 4 seed come tourney time. I love teams that have a lot of offensive weapons, but who know who their go-to scorer is come crunch time. Scottie Reynolds does, and has, filled that role for quite a while in Phily.
Teams #13-#25 tomorrow.
Here is a stock report on the AP Top 25 poll:
#1 UConn - Hold. It remains to be seen how dire the impact of Dyson is to the Huskies. The Pitt loss was simply that; a loss to a very good Pitt team in a very hyped TV contest. Most of the nation wasn't tuning in when Villanova handled the Pathers easily a few weeks ago, ergo no "the sky is falling" talk had to be endured. Both Pitt and UConn are "Holds" as they are clearly two of the five best teams in the country.
#2 Oklahoma -BUY. This team is peaking and growing at the right time. Blake Griffin is the National POY, but the Sooners have more than that going for them. Wille Warren is the most complete freshman in the country right now and runs the team superbly. Austin Johnson has been filling it up and Taylor Griffin is a solid role player. They have flown pretty under the radar for a team that is about to become the #1 team in the nation on Monday, but make no mistake, the Sooners are legit.
#3 North Carolina - BUY. Still the best team in the country when they come to play. If you are scoring at home, they have done just that for 10 straight games now in the nation's deepest and most balanced conference.
#4 Pitt - HOLD. See above. Tons of talent, tons of toughness, but also tons of other years we have written the exact same thing about Pitt. Not knocking this team, it's just...show me in March...
#5 Memphis - SELL. Nothing like an abysmal schedule to shine over a few weaknesses. Yes, you still have to win the games on your schedule, but I am not buying that a Memphis team that was unranked four weeks ago is suddenly the 5th best team in the nation after fatteneing up on the C-USA. The Gonzaga win was an impressive one, but again, still not sure this is the 5th best team in the country.
#6 Michigan State - HOLD. Purdue handed them their can last night, and exposed some of the Spartans shooting weaknesses. That said, they have depth, quickness and toughness...and Coach Izzo. I liked them a little more in the underdog role, but still think this team could make some noise in March.
#7 Louisville - BUY. The Cards might have had the strangest week in the country; losing by 35 to Notre Dame, then winning by 40+ over DePaul. Let's erase that ND game, or at least file it as evidence that the Cards are capable of lapses. Then again, with the exception of Oklahoma, everyone else has proven the same thing this season. At the end of the day, gimme the talent, athleticism and Pitino in March.
#8. Wake Forest - SELL. Has anyone else noticed the Deacons are only 6-4 in conference? Their lone non-conference wins of note are BYU and Baylor. This is a good ball club, not a great one. I think getting much further than the first weekend is a stretch for this year's squad (though easily Top 5 pre-season 2010 if everyone stays.)
#9. Duke - BUY. While everyone else is selling the Blue Devils like crazy, the Maniac continues to hold. The Clemson loss was disconcerting for sure, but nearly every team takes one or two of those through the course of the season. With the emergence of Henderson this team has offensive options like very few others. If they can find someway to steady the PG play and get Singler some help on the boards, they can still make a Final Four run.
#10. Marquette - SELL. The Maniac has been warning you about the Eagles final five games for about two months now. Starting this week, we will find out if he was right. They are a sure fire 2-3 seed right now, don't be surprised if it is a 5-6 in three weeks...
#11. Missouri - HOLD. I have been touting them all year and saying how underrated the Tigers were... but at #11 we might have reached our apex here. No possible way this is a Final Four team, but getting out of the first weekend would still be a nice accomplishment given preseason expectations.
#12. Villanova - BUY. Not only have the Wildcats impressed with their five game win streak over Syracuse, Cincy, Pitt, Providence and Marquette (yes, they JUST lost to WVU), but they also have a finishing schedule that should be at least a 4-2 or even a 5-1 finish. That puts them well aligned for a 3 or 4 seed come tourney time. I love teams that have a lot of offensive weapons, but who know who their go-to scorer is come crunch time. Scottie Reynolds does, and has, filled that role for quite a while in Phily.
Teams #13-#25 tomorrow.
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Big East Shakeup
OK, so we were half right on our most overrated teams in America proclamation.
Villanova made us eat our words tonight, taking it to Pittsburgh, outscoring them by 15 in the second half. Villanova held their own on the boards and used a stiffling perimeter defense to shut down Pittsburgh.
Cincinnati made us look like geniuses though, giving perplexing Georgetown yet another conference loss. They made a splashy debut blowing out UConn, but since then things have been pretty downhill. The loss tonight drops them to 3-5 in Big East play with their last two losses coming at the hands of Seton Hall and Cincinnati. Despite wins over Memphis, UConn and Syracuse, the Hoyas will wake up tomorrow to find themselves on the precarious bubble. Particualry in light of...
Providence! The much maligned 5-2 Friars were seen as the beneficiary of a soft early conference schedule. Tonight's 100 point perfomance against Syracuse (relax, they gave up 94) has to at least elevate the Friars to serious NCAA consideration. If today were Selection Sunday it would be very difficult to NOT give them the nod over Notre Dame and Georgetown. Who'da thunk it?!?
The Big East might very well get their record setting nine bids - it just may not be the nine everyone assumed it would be.
As of TODAY:
LOCKS: UConn, Louisville, Pitt, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia,
BUBBLE: Notre Dame, Georgetown, Providence, Cincinnati
Have something to say?? Leave a comment or email us at MarchManiacs@yahoo.com!
Villanova made us eat our words tonight, taking it to Pittsburgh, outscoring them by 15 in the second half. Villanova held their own on the boards and used a stiffling perimeter defense to shut down Pittsburgh.
Cincinnati made us look like geniuses though, giving perplexing Georgetown yet another conference loss. They made a splashy debut blowing out UConn, but since then things have been pretty downhill. The loss tonight drops them to 3-5 in Big East play with their last two losses coming at the hands of Seton Hall and Cincinnati. Despite wins over Memphis, UConn and Syracuse, the Hoyas will wake up tomorrow to find themselves on the precarious bubble. Particualry in light of...
Providence! The much maligned 5-2 Friars were seen as the beneficiary of a soft early conference schedule. Tonight's 100 point perfomance against Syracuse (relax, they gave up 94) has to at least elevate the Friars to serious NCAA consideration. If today were Selection Sunday it would be very difficult to NOT give them the nod over Notre Dame and Georgetown. Who'da thunk it?!?
The Big East might very well get their record setting nine bids - it just may not be the nine everyone assumed it would be.
As of TODAY:
LOCKS: UConn, Louisville, Pitt, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia,
BUBBLE: Notre Dame, Georgetown, Providence, Cincinnati
Have something to say?? Leave a comment or email us at MarchManiacs@yahoo.com!
Show-Me Games of the Week
These games will give us some separation at the top and upper-echelon of some tough conferences.
Tuesday:
Ohio St @ Illinois - Both teams enter in the 20-30 range in most polls and 3-2 in Big Ten play. I think both teams will Dance, but this game could loom large when their resumes go side-by-side.
Wednesday:
Villanova @ UConn - Nova is 2-2 in conference with a trip to UConn looming. Villanova sits on the precarious spot of being the "ninth" team in the nation's deepest and biggest conference. No conference has ever gotten nine bids in March. I wouldn't want to be the one hoping that UNLV or Crieghton or George Mason haven't captured the committee's wandering Cinderella eyes...
Clemson @ UNC -Fifty three times... wow. I am sure you have heard/read the stat many times by now. Clemson brings one of their better teams into Chapel Hill... and still leaves with number fifty four.
Arizona St. @ Arizona - Mayday! Mayday! The Cats are in real trouble. At 2-4 in Pac-10 play and 11-7 overall, it is going to take somelike a win over in-state rival ASU to revitalize a moribund season and keep the nation's longest active NCAA Tourney appearance streak alive.
Thursday:
Minnesota @ Purdue - The conference's best surprise meets the conference's biggest dissapointment. Funny, both have 2 conference losses. The winner take a big step forward in the race to chase Michigan State for the conference crown.
Saturday:
Memphis @ Tennessee - This year lacks the zip of last year's #1 vs #2 Holy War, but still packs some importance. Memphis has one last chance to pick up a resume builder before fattening up on C-USA fluff. Tennessee gets a chance to pick up a much needed non-conference win for the much-maligned, but perhaps just late blooming, SEC.
UCLA @ Washington - The Huskies might be the biggest sleeper in the country, with NBA-quality big man John Brockton and a 4-1 conference record. The winner moves into first place in the Pac-10.
Xavier @ LSU - same drill as the above Memphis v. Tennessee analysis. LSU needs the win a little more desperatly, as their resume is blank and their early SEC play hasn't been good. Xavier can ill-afford another slip-up if they have aspirations of holding a Top 4 seed in March.
Tuesday:
Ohio St @ Illinois - Both teams enter in the 20-30 range in most polls and 3-2 in Big Ten play. I think both teams will Dance, but this game could loom large when their resumes go side-by-side.
Wednesday:
Villanova @ UConn - Nova is 2-2 in conference with a trip to UConn looming. Villanova sits on the precarious spot of being the "ninth" team in the nation's deepest and biggest conference. No conference has ever gotten nine bids in March. I wouldn't want to be the one hoping that UNLV or Crieghton or George Mason haven't captured the committee's wandering Cinderella eyes...
Clemson @ UNC -Fifty three times... wow. I am sure you have heard/read the stat many times by now. Clemson brings one of their better teams into Chapel Hill... and still leaves with number fifty four.
Arizona St. @ Arizona - Mayday! Mayday! The Cats are in real trouble. At 2-4 in Pac-10 play and 11-7 overall, it is going to take somelike a win over in-state rival ASU to revitalize a moribund season and keep the nation's longest active NCAA Tourney appearance streak alive.
Thursday:
Minnesota @ Purdue - The conference's best surprise meets the conference's biggest dissapointment. Funny, both have 2 conference losses. The winner take a big step forward in the race to chase Michigan State for the conference crown.
Saturday:
Memphis @ Tennessee - This year lacks the zip of last year's #1 vs #2 Holy War, but still packs some importance. Memphis has one last chance to pick up a resume builder before fattening up on C-USA fluff. Tennessee gets a chance to pick up a much needed non-conference win for the much-maligned, but perhaps just late blooming, SEC.
UCLA @ Washington - The Huskies might be the biggest sleeper in the country, with NBA-quality big man John Brockton and a 4-1 conference record. The winner moves into first place in the Pac-10.
Xavier @ LSU - same drill as the above Memphis v. Tennessee analysis. LSU needs the win a little more desperatly, as their resume is blank and their early SEC play hasn't been good. Xavier can ill-afford another slip-up if they have aspirations of holding a Top 4 seed in March.
Big East Saturday Matchups
A slate of interesting Big East games today will start to give some shape to the uber-competitive conference race.
The first pits Louisville at Villanova. An interesting matchup between the great guard play of the the slightly undersized Wildcats versus the long athletic wings and post players of Louisville. Size matters. (insert your joke here). Louisville captures a much-needed road win to build off the Kentucky win momentum.
West Virginia also visits Marquette in an interesting matchup of the Big East's other two undersized giants. Big men rule the league; Pitt, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown all feature first round draft picks in the paint. Marquette's three best players are under 6'4''. But Dominic James and Jerel McNeal are the best backcourt in the country. It will be enough to hold off a scrappy West Virginia club at home.
Providence is off to a surprising 3-0 start in conference. They travel to Georgetown who opened league play with a Greg Monroe-dominated road win at UConn. They then lost (badly) at Pitt and again at Notre Dame. Providence's wins are over Cincinnati, DePaul and St. John's. Today the records begin trending back towards where they belong as the Hoyas roll over the Friars.
The first pits Louisville at Villanova. An interesting matchup between the great guard play of the the slightly undersized Wildcats versus the long athletic wings and post players of Louisville. Size matters. (insert your joke here). Louisville captures a much-needed road win to build off the Kentucky win momentum.
West Virginia also visits Marquette in an interesting matchup of the Big East's other two undersized giants. Big men rule the league; Pitt, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown all feature first round draft picks in the paint. Marquette's three best players are under 6'4''. But Dominic James and Jerel McNeal are the best backcourt in the country. It will be enough to hold off a scrappy West Virginia club at home.
Providence is off to a surprising 3-0 start in conference. They travel to Georgetown who opened league play with a Greg Monroe-dominated road win at UConn. They then lost (badly) at Pitt and again at Notre Dame. Providence's wins are over Cincinnati, DePaul and St. John's. Today the records begin trending back towards where they belong as the Hoyas roll over the Friars.
Eye Openers for Tuesday Jan 6th
Some really great games and some interesting results from around the country. Here is a quick recap.
UConn pulled away late to nip West Virginia in Morgantown 61-55. The loss will likely drop the Mountaineers out of the next polls. Who cares. They are a good ballclub who will be dancing with a nervous partner in some 7-10 game in March. The Huskies look really solid after their conference opening defeat to Georgetown. They are about 5th to 7th in most polls, but are still a Top 3 team using the eye test.
UCF beat Holy Cross to move to 9-4. Are they tourney worthy? Certainly not, barring a miracle conference tourney run. But Jermaine Taylor is the best player you have NEVER heard of, averaging over 23 a contest. If the Knights can eke out 10 or 11 conference wins, he could be C-USA's player of the year (though I imagine it will go to bigger name (and ass...) Robert Vaden)
Ohio State lost at Michigan State by a dozen or so to fall to 0-3 in conference. Ohio State is on the ropes big time, after looking like a Top 10 team just three weeks ago. If you seeded today, seven Big Ten teams dance, and they are NOT one of them. Meanwhile Michigan State very quietly looks like one of the best teams in the country. Put that 35 point loss to Carolina out of your heads. I have an interesting theory I am cooking up on WHY that loss happened... Read it on the site, and tell me if you agree/disagree....
Kansas held off a feisty Siena team by 7. Col Alderich is way better than you think and is an early candidate for the Eric Montross retro white-guy flattop of the year award. Siena is a pesty club I would be wary of in the inevitable 14 seed they will earn in March.
Villanova earned a nice road win over a pesky Seton Hall club. Scottie Reynolds tossed in 40 in the OT thriller.
Creighton and Illinois State lost to Northern Iowa and Bradley respectivly. Great for the victors, but disaster for the conference. Parity does not get multiple bids for non-BCS conferences. You need two to four giants to amass gaudy records in top-heavy leagues. Computers and RPI's don't watch basketball games. Hell, after Arizona State got left out last year I am not sure the committe does either.
Arkansas continues it's Southwestern Confernce Trail of Tears, scalping another former conference mate and top ten Little 12 team in Texas. The Hogs got 'em 67-61 and add them to Oklahoma in the impressive trophy closet. Think those two wins move you up three or four lines come tourney seeding time?? You better believe it. They remind me a lot of the 18-11 Maryland team in 2003 who went from bubble to #4 seed in the span of three good ACC Tourney wins. Sometime WHO you beat matters most.
Lastly, to balance the praise of the SEC with some reality, how about the shitsandwich LSU served up in Utah tonight, losing 91-61 to the Utes. Utah is now 10-5 with losses to Utah State, Idaho State, and ....wait for it.... Southwest Baptist. You would think a loss like that and even JOHN the Baptist couldn't resurrect your season's soul, but LSU attempted to prove otherwise.
Enjoy a good week of hoops! Oh, and Geaux Tigers!!
UConn pulled away late to nip West Virginia in Morgantown 61-55. The loss will likely drop the Mountaineers out of the next polls. Who cares. They are a good ballclub who will be dancing with a nervous partner in some 7-10 game in March. The Huskies look really solid after their conference opening defeat to Georgetown. They are about 5th to 7th in most polls, but are still a Top 3 team using the eye test.
UCF beat Holy Cross to move to 9-4. Are they tourney worthy? Certainly not, barring a miracle conference tourney run. But Jermaine Taylor is the best player you have NEVER heard of, averaging over 23 a contest. If the Knights can eke out 10 or 11 conference wins, he could be C-USA's player of the year (though I imagine it will go to bigger name (and ass...) Robert Vaden)
Ohio State lost at Michigan State by a dozen or so to fall to 0-3 in conference. Ohio State is on the ropes big time, after looking like a Top 10 team just three weeks ago. If you seeded today, seven Big Ten teams dance, and they are NOT one of them. Meanwhile Michigan State very quietly looks like one of the best teams in the country. Put that 35 point loss to Carolina out of your heads. I have an interesting theory I am cooking up on WHY that loss happened... Read it on the site, and tell me if you agree/disagree....
Kansas held off a feisty Siena team by 7. Col Alderich is way better than you think and is an early candidate for the Eric Montross retro white-guy flattop of the year award. Siena is a pesty club I would be wary of in the inevitable 14 seed they will earn in March.
Stop the fight, we have a winner!
Villanova earned a nice road win over a pesky Seton Hall club. Scottie Reynolds tossed in 40 in the OT thriller.
Creighton and Illinois State lost to Northern Iowa and Bradley respectivly. Great for the victors, but disaster for the conference. Parity does not get multiple bids for non-BCS conferences. You need two to four giants to amass gaudy records in top-heavy leagues. Computers and RPI's don't watch basketball games. Hell, after Arizona State got left out last year I am not sure the committe does either.
Arkansas continues it's Southwestern Confernce Trail of Tears, scalping another former conference mate and top ten Little 12 team in Texas. The Hogs got 'em 67-61 and add them to Oklahoma in the impressive trophy closet. Think those two wins move you up three or four lines come tourney seeding time?? You better believe it. They remind me a lot of the 18-11 Maryland team in 2003 who went from bubble to #4 seed in the span of three good ACC Tourney wins. Sometime WHO you beat matters most.
Lastly, to balance the praise of the SEC with some reality, how about the shitsandwich LSU served up in Utah tonight, losing 91-61 to the Utes. Utah is now 10-5 with losses to Utah State, Idaho State, and ....wait for it.... Southwest Baptist. You would think a loss like that and even JOHN the Baptist couldn't resurrect your season's soul, but LSU attempted to prove otherwise.
Enjoy a good week of hoops! Oh, and Geaux Tigers!!
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