Trouble Bubblin'? Michigan State Among Teams on the Slide

It's February, so all college hoops fans know the word de juor from here on out - that of course being the dreaded "bubble."  Nearly every conference is about at the halfway point and most teams across the country are gearing up for that all important (though the committee claims it officially doesn't matter...) ten game stretch run to the end of the season.

Should have set a wake-up call

In our first bubble update, we're going to focus on some teams who are sliding the wrong way.  There were more than a few of them tonight.

Baylor had a weird circumstance today, as their game was moved up to an early afternoon tip-off due to last night's contest in Norman being postponed by bad weather.  Perhaps someone should have told the Bears to get up a little early... They looked horribly flat and took a potentially devastating loss, 73-66 to Oklahoma.  The loss dropped Baylor to 14-7 (4-4).

It's odd to see Memphis lose a game in Conference USA.  It's really odd to see them suffer their second straight loss, on their home floor, to another opponent with no chance of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team.  But that's exactly what happened tonight.  The Tigers stole the ball with eight seconds to play and had two attempts at an overtime-forcing three, but when the second attempt clanged off the rim Tulsa escaped with a 68-65 win.  Memphis falls to 16-6 (5-3) and in some real danger of missing the tourney for a second straight year.

Kudos to Tom Crean and his suddenly competitive Hoosiers.  However, bad news for Minnesota who finds themselves back on the familiar bubble after dropping a should-win, even on the road, to IU.  Tubby's Gophers are still ranked in the Top 25, but at 16-6, and 5-5 in the Big Ten with upcoming games against Ohio State and Illinois, the Gophers are not on nearly as solid footing as one might think.

We feel your pain Tom...

Lastly, it's hard to even quantify the disaster that is coming to life to Tom Izzo and his Spartans.  Ranked in the Top 5 in the nation early in the season, things might have hit rock bottom tonight with their twenty point blowout loss at lowly Iowa.  It is only the second conference win on the season for the Hawkeyes, who climb to 9-13 with the win.


Michigan State failed to do something that South Dakota State accomplished to start this season; win in Carver-Hawkeye Arena.  It's beyond panic time in East Lansing.  With the loss the Spartans fall to 13-9, (5-5).  More troubling than their record, which is given some leeway with the tremendous strength of schedule, is their recent play.  The Spartans are 2-5 over the last seven games, with losses to three of the four worst teams in the conference; Iowa, Michigan and Penn State, and one of their two wins an overtime escape against the other cellar-dweller, Indiana.

Any responsible bracket projection done today has to exclude the Spartans, as bizarre as that is to type.  With two of their next three games AT Wisconsin (where no one ever wins)  and @ Ohio State (who is #1 in the nation) it is all but last-call for Sparty and their nearly two-decade long run of tourney appearances.

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Big Ten: Mid Season Conference Round Up

The Big Ten entered the season thought to be one of the nation's elite conferences, and they've done little to dispel the notion thus far.  If anything, the recent stellar play of Penn State and the at least occasional displays of competence by Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern, make the Big Ten as deep top-to-bottom as any league in the country.

At the midpoint, it is safe to assume an absolute minimum of five NCAA Tourney bids, with a sixth being highly likely and a seventh being a remote, but unlikely possibility.

Here's where we stand so far:

LOCKS: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin
SHOULD BE IN:  Minnesota
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY: Northwestern, Penn State
NO SHOT:  Michigan. Indiana, Iowa

Ohio State is #1 in the country and shows no signs of slowing down.  Tonight's visit from Purdue will be a nice test for the Buckeyes coming off their emotional win Saturday in Champagne.  They have the inside/outside balance needed for a deep run to the Final Four and more.  They won't run the table, and could even lose tonight to Purdue, but I'd be surprised if they drop more than three or four games all year.  Expect the Buckeyes to be a #1 seed in March.

Purdue is an interesting case.  People have focused so much on who they are missing (Robbie Hummel) they've overlooked two All-American candidates they do have in E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson.  The senior inside/out combo is as good as any pair in the country and give Purdue the core to make a run at the Final Four.  I've liked this team all season - and they are only getting better as their role players begin to get some confidence and court time.  They could end up as high as a #1 seed with a nice run to win the Big Ten, but more likely settle in around the #3 line.

It's almost February, so that must mean it is time for Michigan State to start turning it on in preparation for March.  Tom Izzo has perfected the "Final Four run from a 3 or 4 seed" act many times, and might just do it again this year.  The Spartans certainly have the talent to be a top seed, but like Purdue, likely settle around the #3 line.

Illinois is another team with the personnel to make a deep run in March.  Their record suggests I should have them slotted behind Minnesota and Wisconsin, but Illinois gets the "lock" nod due to who they have played and lost to.  Losses to Texas, Missouri and Wisconsin away from home shouldn't drop the Illini too far in the committee's eyes.  They'll still likely endure a handfull of losses, but should have a strong enough body of work to land safely in the 4/5 seed range.

Wisconsin strikes again.  They don't have NBA talent loading up their roster like some of their Big Ten counterparts, but all Bo Ryan and his Badgers do is win win win no matter what.  Currently 5-2 in conference, the Badgers are in position to finish second in arguably the top league in the country.  Trips to Ohio State and Purdue still loom, but the Badgers propensity to hammer lesser opponents (including this weekend 32-point drubbing of Northwestern) serves them favorably for an 11 or 12 win season and as high as a #3 seed, but no certainly no worse than a #5 seed in March.

Minnesota is all but a lock, but their lack of marquee wins means they still need to hold up over the rigors of Big Ten play. Early neutral court wins over North Carolina and West Virginia help, but the real bulk of their Big Ten schedule is still to come.  The 3-point loss at Ohio State is encouraging, as is the home win over Purdue.  They only have four games left in conference against the "Top 5" so their home and homes with Northwestern and Indiana are vital to sweep.  My call - Minnesota lands around a #6 seed.


What to make of Northwestern?  They looked good in blowout wins over Indiana, Iowa and Michigan - as well as in tight three and four point losses against Michigan State.  This is also the team that took a 32-point drubbing by Wisconsin and a 25-point loss at Illinois.  Simply put?  The Wildcats are just OK - not terrible, yet nowhere close to the class of the Big Ten's elite.  That likely earns them a seventh place finish and yet another berth in the NIT.

Penn State is another team that is likely not making the Big Dance, but man are they giving teams fits in conference play.  The are only 3-4 in league play, but an impressive 3-4 it is; they own wins over Michigan State and Illinois and two road losses to Ohio State by just three and Purdue on a last-second buzzer beater, 63-62.  Those are their four most recent games.  So - does that great play translate into wins over the bottom half of the conference?  If it does, it isn't unreasonable to think Penn State could sneak up to 9-9, possibly even better in conference.  It may not be enough to get them to the tourney in Talor Battle's senior year, but the Nittany Lions are sure going to make things interesting.

Indiana fans surely must be growing impatient.  It's now year three of the Tom Crean Era, and there is little evidence of progress.  At least Hoosier fans can take solace knowing their good friends in Lexington were in the exact same spot three years ago and their rebuilding took Coach Cal about 45 minutes and four phone calls... The Hoosiers are simply outclassed in Big Ten play.  They lack the size, the scoring, the depth - basically everything needed to compete.  Even the NIT is a stretch for IU. Consider Crean on the clock next season.

Michigan is a program that continues to perplex me.  They have tradition, facilities, resources, a good coach; yet they continue to flounder on the edge of irrelevance.  They gave Kansas a heck of a fight earlier this year, showing some signs of life, but at 1-6 in conference with trips to Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota still remaining Michigan is looking a terrible conference season, and an overall sub-.500 season squarely in the face.  If not for the relative failures of the two coaches who preceded him, I'd say Beilein has reason to be nervous... and actually still might.

The pen is mightier than the team...

If one were taking the "Big Ten" exactly at its name's value, Iowa would be the school you would forget to include.  This once-proud basketball program continues to flounder at the bottom of the league with very little sign of digging itself up off the mat.  The Hawkeyes are just 8-11 (1-6) and have losses to powerhouses like South Dakota State and Long Beach State on their resume.  No postseason for these guys - this year - or anytime soon... Paging Dr. Tom Davis...Dr. Davis...

Big Ten Looks to Start a New Trend in ACC Challenge

Last season the Big Ten laid to rest the seemingly eternal streak of ACC dominance.  Winning last year's challenge was the first time the Big Ten had done so since the series inception more than a decade ago.

Last year's triumph may have been a minor upset, but in order for the ACC to get back on top it is going to take an upset of their own.  For perhaps the first time in the Challenge era, the Big Ten is clearly superior.

Here's a quick breakdown of the matchups, along with some fearless prognostications:

MONDAY:

Virginia @ Minnesota:  Tubby's Gophers have been one of the pleasant surprises of the early season, winning their preseason tourney by downing North Carolina and West Virginia.  They also handled solid mid-majors Wofford, Western Kentucky and Siena, all with relative ease.  They should cruise at home against the Cavaliers.

TUESDAY:

Iowa @ Wake Forest:  Both teams have been dreadful in the early going and look like cellar dwellars in their respective leagues.  I'll take Wake, who I think is a little better than they have played, at home over the Hawkeyes.

Georgia Tech @ Northwestern:  The Wildcats their first real test of the season.  I like them over the Jackets in a close game.

Ohio State @ Florida State:  The Buckeye's were #2 in our preseason poll, and remain the most legitimate challenger (along with Kansas) to the Blue Devils hopes to repeat.  Florida State lacks the offensive punch to score with a very balanced Buckeye attack.

Michigan @ Clemson:  This is a game the Tigers need to win if the ACC has any chance of pulling out the challenge.  I think they will, but this one could be really ugly.  Both teams are sloppy with the ball an inefficient offensively.

North Carolina @ Illinois:  Illinois is one of the quietest good teams in the country. They dropped to #20 after losing an intense game to Texas.  Look for the Illini to exploit Carolina's ballhandling and passing woes into easy buckets and an easy win.

WEDNESDAY:
Indiana @ Boston College:  This is a huge opportunity for the Hoosiers to take the next step in their rebuilding journey and validate their early unbeaten creampuff-aided record.  BC has played in more competitive games early, and that is an advantage, but I still like the Hoosiers to get an upset win on the road.

North Carolina State @ Wisconsin:  The Badgers just do not lose in the Kohl Center.  They won't tonight either.  Give me Bucky in a win over better-than-advertised NC State.

Purdue @ Virginia Tech:  VA Tech might be the second best team in the ACC (hence my 'Can Duke Run the Table' columns).  Purdue is taking some flack for losing to Richmond the other day, but Richmond is a legit Top 20 team.  To me, not as concerning a loss as it seemed on the surface.  Despite the loss of Hummel, Purdue remains Top 10-Top 15 talented with JuJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore.  I like the Boilermakers in the road, stiffling Malcoln Delaney and the Hokies.  This is probably the second best game of the series, I wouldn't miss this one.


Maryland @ Penn State:  This is why God created ESPN-U.  So you and I could watch games like this while 99.9% of the nation could care less.  Maryland is my sleeper pick in the ACC.  I watched them frustrate Pitt for 40 minutes.  Once they figure out who their primary ballhandler is going to be, the Terps could surprise some folks and make the tourney.  Penn State is awful, but enjoy Talor Battle for one more season.  The do-everything guard for the Nittany Lions is one of the most exciting players in the country.  That said, I'll take the Terps on the road.

Michigan State @ Duke:  This is the marquee matchup, and we'll devote a column to it on Wednesday.  I won't give away my pick, but I'm sure you can guess....

OVERALL:  I have the Big Ten winning 7-4 on my fight card. 

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New Year's Conference Resolutions: Big Ten

Here's the first of ten conference installments of some New Year's Resolutions and Prognostications. As always, your dissension is welcomed...

BIG TEN:

The Big Ten had all the makings of the best conference in the country heading into the season. Legit Final Four contenders? Purdue & Michigan State. National Player of the Year candidate? Evan Turner of Ohio State more than fit the bill. Tons of tourney caliber teams? Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State & Minnesota all were ranked preseason, with Wisconsin entering shortly after beating Duke early. Penn State was fresh off their NIT championship and Northwestern was entertaining dreams of their first ever NCAA tourney appearance. Heck, optimism was even high down in Bloomington with the rebuilding Hoosiers.

So what happened?

Michigan State got routed by North Carolina, Texas and lost to middling Florida. Ohio State lost Evan Turner to a broken back (amazing as it sounds, he will likely be back this season), Minnesota has struggled on the court and off, Michigan has been a disaster and Illinois has been disappointing. Penn State may not even be good enough to get back to the NIT to defend their crown and Indiana will need another year of rebuilding before being relevant.

In short, the Big Ten's shortfalls continue to glare compared to the bright lights of the Big East, ACC and Big 12 for yet another year.

Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:

The Good:
Purdue looks fantastic, and a legit contender to get to Indy. I can't see them any lower than a #2 or #3 seed come March, and I wouldn't bet against a #1 (the win over WVU in the hip pocket). They have good veteran leadership and much like Florida 2006-07, a fantastic understanding of their individuals roles within the team construct.

I'd never bet against Tom Izzo and Michigan State in March. They do it every year, and have more than enough talent to get back to yet another Final Four.

If Ohio State gets back a healthy Even Turner they can be a real sleeper. I thought they were a legit third contender to win the Big Ten before the injury, and are of course a completely different team without him. Unfortunately Turner might return a little too late to salvage a decent seed.

I like Wisconsin's chances getting back to the dance as well. Every year Wisconsin is supposed to be down. Every year Bo Ryan's Badgers defend on the court, defend their home court, and defend their NCAA consecutive appearance streak. It's going to happen again this year.

The Unknown:
Tubby has had a tumultuous off season with his Minnesota Gophers and a rough November. Consecutive losses to Portland, Texas A&M and Miami dropped them off the national radar and left them with only a quality win over Butler for the resume. They are 10-3 and healthy and poised to make a run. I think Tubby's Gophers get it going and finish a solid 5th.

I'm not sure what to make of Illinois. My gut feeling is they are on the outside looking in come March. They've lost to Bradley, a bad Georgia team and a terrible Utah club. Those are going to be tough losses to overcome without ten wins in conference. The opening win over Northwestern helps, but I think they come up short.

Speaking of Northwestern, the Wildcats made their first appearance in the Top 25...and promptly followed it up with a loss to the Illini. Sentiment has me pulling for the Wildcats. Logic tells me they come up just a bit short...again. Check out the upcoming schedule: @ Mighigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, @Ohio State, Illinois, @Minnesota, @Michigan State. Wow. Win even three of these and we'll talk tourney. Find me three games they will be favored in on that slate...

Penn State is a major disappointment to me. The Nittany Lions and Talor Battle just haven't conjured up the magic this year. Early losses to Tulane and NC Wilmington put a ton of pressure on them to go over .500 in conference. It ain't happenin'

Michigan remains the biggest enigma. They are easily tourney-talented. Then the lose their opener to Indiana. Not a way to statr if you have serious aspirations in March. They are 6-6 with a bad loss to Utah and questionable losses to Alabama and Indiana. That leaves a lot of work to do in Ann Arbor. And fast.

The BAD:
Indiana is at least worth watching this year. They play well at home and will likely pick up a handful of conference wins this year. The loss of Maurice Creek hurts, and it is tough to see this young Hoosier team winning many on the road. After all, surprising wins over Pitt and Michigan aside, this is a team that lost to Boston U, George Mason and Loyola (Md). No postseason this year, but the future is bright in Bloomington.

Um, not so much in Iowa. The Hawkeyes are terrible. They've lost to Texas-San Antonio, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Duquesne...and they are going to lose to every single team in the Big Ten at least once.

Final Score:
Purdue, Michigan State are Top 4 seeds. Ohio State gets Turner back in time to get in, Wisconsin and Minnesota earn bids.

Michigan and Illinois spend a rocky few weeks on each side of the bubble. I think the Wolverines get it together just in time to slip in as the 6th Big Ten team while Illinois joins Northwestern in NIT.

Penn State, Indiana and Iowa - make early March tee times.

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Big Tuesday Slate

A big day of college hoops and a first real look at a couple national title contenders:

8PM: Gonzaga @ Michigan State

The Zags mantra of anyone, anytime takes living form tonight as they essentially "open" their season at #2 Sparty. State returns All-American PG Kalin Lucas and a healthy supporting cast. The Zags lost a ton, including leading scorers Jeremy Pargo, Josh Heytvelt and budding star Austin Daye (who made a huge mistake leaving early...but that's another column. William Avery thinks he needed more college for crying out loud...)

That said, two things remain consistent in East Lansing. Izzo's clubs will fight you for 40 minutes, and they are always better in March than they are in November. I think they win tonight, but that Boldin and Co. keep the Zags hanging around long into the second half.
Maniac's Pick: Gonzaga +11

10 PM: Memphis @ #1 Kansas

The Tigers are in an interestingly unfamiliar position in 09-10, the hunter rather than the hunted. The rematch of the title game from two years ago bears absolutly zero resemblance. Only two "real" contributors remain (both Aldrich and Collins played supporting roles for the Jayhawks). However this Jayhawk squad might actually be more talented than the group that cut down the nets 20 months ago.

Memphis is not only unranked, most pundits have them second in a less-than-stellar C-USA. (The Maniac disagrees - Memphis wins the league again this year). Gone is Calipari. So too the bevy of NBA caliber recruits. In comes Josh Pastner, a 31 year old baby-faced rookie coach. The Tigers will be different in 09, but don't sleep on the athleticism of this club. Early in the season when teams struggle with shot selection and finding fluidity in their offenses, defense tends to rule.

The addition of Xavier Henry makes Kansas an early season title fave.

Memphis is better than most expect and could very likely be a first round favorite come March. However they won't be tonight. Expect an experienced Jayhawk squad to force a ton of turnovers and bad shots from the young Tigers and win with relative ease in a game that will look more impressive in March than it does tonight.
Maniac's Pick: Kansas -9.5

Other Game of Note:

Duquesne @ Iowa (9PM): To the casual fan, this is another early season patsy...and it might be. Only for the Dukes rather than the Hawkeyes. Iowa will be a punching bag in the loaded Big Ten this year. Get used to it Hawkeye fans. A loss at home tonight to the A-10 sleeper Duquesne is a tougher-than-advertised way to start
Maniac's Pick: Duquesne -2

Other Picks:
Georgetown -8 over Temple
Duke -17 over Charlotte
Iowa State -1 over Drake

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Saturday's Best Games - Jan 3rd.

In between bowl fever and the start of the NFL playoffs, it is easy for college hoops to get lost in the sportsfan's shuffle. However, Saturday is chock full of games worth tuning in for. Here is a rundown on Saturday's finest.

FIVE STARS:

12pm Pitt @ Georgetown - Can Georgetown take down the top two teams in the conference (and two of the top three in the nation) in the same week? They'll be on their home floor, and it is obvious Greg Monroe will not be afraid of Pitt's interior defenders, seeing how he didn't bat an eye at Hasheem Thabeet.

8pm Wake Forest @ BYU - Must be "east coast bias." I can't think of any other reason why the Lee Cummard and the Cougs aren't ranked (ditto for UNLV), but these two teams enter the game a combined 23-1. The winner puts a huge feather in their cap come Selection Sunday.

8pm Creighton @ Illinois State - I might be becoming a bit of an MVC honk, but I honestly think this is the 2nd best game of the day. Creighton (12-2) has been the big kid on the block for years while Illinois State (13-0) has been the low bird on the totem pole. We will find out tomorrow night how much (if any) things have changed.

FOUR STARS:

12pm Ohio State @ Minnesota - Ohio St skidded past Iowa coming off their first loss throttling by WVA. Minnesota came into Big Ten play unbleminshed...then got their doors blown off by Michigan State. Tubby's Gophers don't want an 0-2 start to blemish all the positives of 2008.

2pm Tennessee @ Kansas - Two good teams square off in one of the nation's toughest places to win. Kansas is not ranked, but a win a the Phog never hurts the resume.

THREE STARS:

2pm Penn State @ Wisconsin - Don't look now, but Bo Ryan's Badgers appear to be a force once again in the Big Ten after an opening dismantling of Michigan (who beat UCLA and Duke). Penn State is off to a 12-2 start, but a win in Madison might be asking a bit much.

4pm NC State @ Florida - The Gators haven't made the strides that many expected so far in 2008-09. A home loss to the Pack would be another tough obstacle to overcome heading into a balanced, if not great, SEC.

4pm Wyoming @ Utah - The Ute's a fresh off a big win over Gonzaga...but I suppose a lot of teams can boast that this year. Meanwhile Wyoming (11-3) needs as many wins as they can get to make up for a less-than-stellar non conference schedule. The MWC is really deep and good this year. It will be interesting to see if Wyoming is one of the teams that can make noise.

TWO STARS:

2pm Xavier @ Virginia - The Muskies look to stop a 2-game skid in Charlottesville. The Cavs would love a big win before entering a ACC that appears to be a cut above their 2009 talent level.

4pm East Carolina @ Clemson - I had ECU on the Maniac Radar earlier this season. Then they lost by 41 to Wake. Expect Clemson to cruise to 14-0, though the Pirates do have the talent to compete for a 2nd to 4th finish in C-USA.

4pm Indiana @ Iowa - Let the carnage begin. The Hoosiers travel to Iowa to deliver the "bye week" in person. The Hoosiers enter off a home loss to Lipscomb (google it.) and are clearly Number Eleven in the Big Ten.


UPSET ALERT:

These three teams need to be on the watch for upset-minded foes who just might be capable of shooting their way to a big upset win.

* West Virgina @ Seton Hall
* Butler @ Valparaiso
* Wake Forest @ BYU

Guide to the Best Hoops Day of the Year!

...excluding the tourney of course.

Saturday is a smorgasbord of big-time games. I am sure most hoop fans are well aware that UConn travels out to Seattle to tackle Gonzaga and that Duke and Xavier will meet in the Meadowlands. However, there are a dozen of more games on Saturday worth catching.

Miami (OH) @ West Virginia - WVU has played some decent foes already, and lost to them. Kentucky held them to 43 points and Steph Curry rallied to beat them in th last two minutes in the Garden. Miami (OH) has three losses. To UCLA, Pitt & Xavier. Suffice it to say they will not be intimidated by the Moutaineers.

Duke vs. Xavier (Meadowlands, NJ) - A really intersting and fantastic game. For a complete breakdown, click here.

Michigan St @ Texas - Michigan State has been dissapointing early, failing their only true test of the season miserably (losses to Maryland and UNC by 18 & 35 respectivly). Texas slepwalked through closer-than-expected wins over hapless instate foes Texas Southern, and Texas St. A win in this game keeps Texas on pace with Oklahoma on the One Line come selection Sunday. A win for Michigan St. rights the ship heading into Big Ten play.

Louisville @ Minnesota - Minnesota is unbeaten so far. Conisder them 0-0 going into this one. Lousiville brings Tubby's Gophers their first true test. With a win, the should be ranked for Christmas. A loss? In the eyes of most true college hoops fans, they are 0-1.

Temple @ Kansas - Kansas already has one loss to A-10 foe UMass. Temple will look to add a second.

Arizona @ UNLV - The Wildcats are fresh off their upset win over Gonzaga. UNLV has flown under the radar for the past few years, but Lon Kreuger seems to always have a tough squad come March. Arizona entered the season in turmoil; coaching upheaval, Brandon Jennings in Europe, BUT don't overlook the talent on this squad. This game seems like a perfect 7-10 NCAA tourney game to me.

Davidson @ Purdue (Indianapolis, IN) - Is Purdue the Final Four contender people thought entering the season, or are they the team that was emasculated by Duke on their home floor? Davidson is in year two of dragon-slaying. They have been so good in that role that they won't be big underdogs in this one.

Providence @ Boston College - Two middle of the pack teams from major conferences collide in a game that means a ton to each schools slim post season chances.

LSU @ Texas A&M - LSU takes a break from their brutal SWAC confernce schedule to play a fellow BCS school. A&M has already beaten Arizona, but it is really tough to project what they will be facing when LSU plays it's first real game of the year.

BYU @ Arizona St. - GREAT game under the radar. Both of these team feature NBA first-rounders in James Harden and Lee Cummard. Both teams need a solid resume building win to play in the 4-6 saeed range. BUY enters 10-0, Arizona St with just the one defeat to Baylor (though the needed overtime to beat IUPUI by one in their last contest).

Syracuse @ Memphis - For a team that lives off it's non-conference success to validate its lackluster conference strength, Memphis has missed a few golden opportunities this year, but gets another one when the Orange come to town. They have already lost tough games to Xavier and Georgetown. This is likely their last chance to beat a ranked foe this season. Without that win, even if the run the C-USA table, it is hard to see them any better than a #4 come March.

Florida @ UCF - On paper, a total mismatch, but this game means a LOT more to UCF than it does the Gators. The Gators appear to be a little better on paper than in practice, and expect UCF to give their absolute best in this one. This is my longshot upset special of the day.

Iowa @ Drake - Drake is coming off the best (and first decent) season in three decades. Tonight the get a shot to show in-state giant Iowa that they are still here to play.

VCU @ Oklahoma - This is exactly the kind of preparation Oklahoma needs for the Big Dance. VCU is tough, scrappy, experienced and not afraid of Oklahoma. Oklahoma SHOULD win, but the question is, will they bring their A game against a smaller-name opponent?