Previewing the East Region

East Region

So much for being the #1 overall seed.  Ohio State’s reward for the honor?  Try the bracket most littered with landmines as they attempt to tackle the toughest region in this year’s tournament. 

North Carolina, Syracuse, and Kentucky all enter the tournament playing their best basketball of the season, all boast rosters with NBA talent, and all have the size, quickness, scoring and athleticism needed to make a Final Four run.  Compare those three to the Southeast: Florida (who got hammered by Kentucky in the SEC Final), BYU (whose second best player is suspended and just got hammered by San Diego State in the MWC Final), and Wisconsin who scored THIRTY THREE points in their last game.

Not sure what the committee was thinking with those two brackets.  It certainly leaves a lot of room for conjecture and debate.

What can’t be debated is the depth of talent in the East.  West Virginia is an interesting #5 seed.  They were not spectacular most of the season, and their roster certainly doesn’t leap off the page, but they do own wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Georgetown, Louisville, UConn and Notre Dame.

George Mason could very well be “this year’s George Mason.”  The Patriots are much better overall than the team that made the miracle run back in 2006.  Throw in Xavier, Princeton, Marquette and Washington and you are looking at one ridiculous bracket.

Ten Best Players in the East Region:

Jared Sullinger (Ohio State), Isaiah Thomas (Washington), Harrison Barnes (UNC), Kris Joseph (Syracuse), Tu Holloway (Xavier), Terrance Jones (Kentucky), David Lighty (Ohio State), Tyler Zeller (UNC), William Buford (Ohio State)

First Round Matchups:

#1 Ohio State vs. #16 UT San Antonio/Alabama St.

Next.

#8 George Mason v. #9 Villanova

Villanova is in an absolute free-fall, losers of 11 of their final 16, including a first-round Big East Tourney loss to lowly South Florida.  George Mason would be my tournament darling if not for an unfortunate draw opposite Ohio State.  I love the Patriots getting the win over ‘Nova.

#5 West Virginia  v. #12 UAB/Clemson

I’m honestly stunned UAB is in the field.  Alabama, Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s and Colorado would all have been more worthy selections.  Clemson apparently got just enough late, making it to the Final Four in the ACC Tourney, losing in OT to North Carolina.  I think they used up the remaining gas in their tank – I like UAB advancing, only to get sent home by the Mountaineers.

#4 Kentucky  v. #13 Princeton

This will be another popular upset pick – don’t fall for it.  Remember what happened when the smart, scrappy, underrated Ivy League team (Cornell) met the Wildcats last year?  Yeah, it wasn’t pretty.  Neither will this one.  Wildcats big.

#6 Xavier v #11 Marquette

Xavier always out-performs their seed in the NCAA Tourney.  Marquette is a tough opening draw, but I think Tu Holloway can pace the X-Men to yet another NCAA Tournament win. 

#3 Syracuse v. #14 Indiana State

The Sycamores did a great job knocking off Wichita State and Missouri State en route to the surprising Missouri Valley championship.  However, both of those teams would have given Syracuse a much more entertaining game.  Indiana State has no clue about the length and quickness of the match-up zone that is about to be unleashed on them.  Besides, Larry Bird is out of eligibility.

#7 Washington  v. #10 Georgia

The rumblings over Georgia’s inclusion and overly-high seed will get louder after Washington and Isaiah Thomas run them right off the floor.  It’s honestly hard to justify how the 8-8 Bulldogs got in over the 12-4 Alabama Crimson Tide, who beat Georgia twice, including a blowout win in the SEC Quarters…  Gimme Washington 80-something to Georgia’s low 70’s output.

#2 North Carolina  v. #15 Long Island

 

Long Island is a nice story, but the fairy tale ends quickly against the tremendous size and athleticism of the Tar Heels

Moving Through the Region:

Ohio State will cruise to the Sweet Sixteen, though George Mason will make them earn it.  I like Kentucky avenging last year’s Elite Eight loss to West Virginia, setting up a nice Kentucky-Ohio State rivalry game in the Sweet Sixteen.  In the bottom half, give me Xavier upsetting Syracuse, and North Carolina narrowly dodging Washington in one of the Tourney’s most exhilarating games.

In the Elite 8, Ohio State v. Kentucky will be another classic, but I like Ohio State’s poise and superior perimeter shooting ousting the Wildcats.  Xavier’s run ends at the hands of the ultra-talented Tar Heels, setting up a brilliant regional final.

Ohio State is the best team in the country, in my opinion, and is a tough matchup for the Heels.  Both teams feature outstanding freshman point guards, and it will be a blast to watch Craft and Marshall square off.  Sullinger against the UNC bigs will be spectacular as well.  In the end, I think the defensive brilliance of David Lighty will fluster UNC frosh sensation Harrison Barnes, and that the Heels will lose track of Diebler in transition a few too many times to advance. 

SOUTHEAST CHAMP: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

UPSET PICKS:

Xavier, with Washington being a dangerous sleeper

This Year's George Mason Might Just Be George Mason...

George Mason left little doubt as to their tourney destination and status as the Colonial's elite tonight with an impressive 71-51 win over VCU.  George Mason is inching very close to LOCK status in the big dance, and could find themselves with a better seed than the #11 they drew five years ago en route to the Final Four.

For Virginia Commonwealth, the loss was absolutely devestating.  Four days ago, VCU was in decent shape for earning an at-large bid.  However, with back-to-back losses to Old Dominion and George Mason, they slide into third in conference, and with their considerably more sparse resume than the two conference front runners, it now appears their only entre' into the Dance will be to win the CAA Tourney.

Friday's Bracket Buster Challenge trip to Wichita State could restore a glimmer of hope, but even that is very remote at 20-8 (12-4).  For Mason (22-5, 14-2), their Bracket Buster trip to Northern Iowa is more a chance to bolster an already impressive tournament resume with another quality win.

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A-Plus Night for the A-10

Tonight was a big night for bolstering the national profile of the Atlantic 10.  Last season they flirted with sending as many as six teams to the Dance, before eventually settling for three, with three more in the NIT.  This season looked to be a down year, with Temple, Xavier and Richmond all taking a disappointing early loss or two.

The Atlantic 10 collectively came up big tonight.  First, Dayton took down CAA standout George Mason 73-67.  After some early struggles Dayton is looking more and more like an NCAA Tournament team.

Richmond pummeled Wake Forest on the road 90-74.  Wake is undeniably down this year, and will likely finsh with a sub .500 record, however aany blowout road win against an ACC school is good for the overall profile.

Lastly, and perhaps most impressivly, Rhode Island knocked off Boston College 67-65.  The Eagles got some pub for their early season loss to lowly Yale.  Since that upset they had regrouped and and won seven straight, including wins over Cal, Indiana, UMass, Providence and Maryland.  This is a great win for the Rams who played Pitt tough in the season opener, and had looked uneven since.

The win moves the Rams to 9-4 and puts another team in the at-large conversation for the league.  Likely no more than three will dance, but with Temple, Xavier, Dayton, Richmond and Rhode Island the A-10 is again relevant on the national stage.

Wednesday Gems in Mid-Major Land

Last night's Pitt v. UConn game ushered in the onset of conference play with a bang.  The game may have been slightly overlooked thanks to the odd Tuesday Night Football game, but college hoops fans had to be delighted with a great matchup to jumpstart phase two of the college sesason.  Non-conference play is almost over, but tonight serves up a nice handful a final conference comparison games.

There are a few more nice major conference match-ups tonight (West Virginia v. St Johns, Georgetown v. Notre Dame), but the most interesting games are taking place far from the reach of nationally televised contests.  Here's a quick breakdown of some games worth visiting www.channelsurfing.net for (great links to dozens of hard-to-find games)


7:00 PM -- Furman (8-2) @ UCF (11-0)
UCF has been one of the nation's most pleasnat surprises, riding their undefeated start to #19 in the AP polls.  Tonight they get a tricky potential trap game as the Paladins (nominee for oddest nickname - ANYONE know what a "Paladin" is?  Email it our way) head to UCF Arena in the first game of the UCF Holiday Classic.  Furman's two losses, a 4-point loss to Kent State (who is playing good ball and could win the MAC) and a 24 point drubbing to Penn State.

The Nittany Lions still have Talor Battle (I believe he is in his eleventh year of eligibility...) and beat Indiana last night in Bloomington to kick off Big Ten play.  The point being, the loss may not be that bad.  Furman enters fresh off a double digit win over South Carolina.  The Knights better be sharp tonight or they could be susceptible to an upset.


7:00 PM -- George Mason (9-2) @ Dayton (10-3)
I have both of these teams IN in my earliest prediction bracket for the Big Dance, but both have a lot of work to do to get there.  Dayton had some struggles early dropping a tough game to East Tennessee St and enduring a humiliating 68-34 loss to state rival Cincinnati.  Since then, the Flyers have regrouped, winning three in a row including last night's 69-65 win at Seton Hall.  The Flyers are the most athletic team in the Atlantic 10 and have the talent to unseat Temple, Xavier and Richmond as the A-10's top team.

George Mason fields their best team since their legendary Final Four run in 2006.   Their two losses both came outside the continental USA in November, NC State and a final-possession loss to SoCon favorite Wofford.  Since then the Patriots wins have been solid, if not spectacular.  Tonight marks their first true Top 75 team challenge since Cancun.  This is their last chance to pick up a much-needed resume win before entering league play in the brutal Colonial.  As of now, they'd be a bubble team at best.

This is the best game of the night, in my opinion.  Too bad ESPN chose to give us Duke v. UNC Greensboro and Texas-Arlington v. Kansas instead...


7:00 PM -- Wofford (5-6) @ VCU (7-4)
Wofford is easily the best 5-6 team in the country.  All kidding aside, the Terriers schedule has been among the most brutal in the country with losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Air Force, Georgetown, Xavier (3 OT) and South Carolina.  More important to note, none of those teams travelled to Wofford's gym.  They may have little shot at an at-large bid, but without a doubt their schedule prepared them well to run through the SoCon.  A win tonight would give them wins over two of the CAA's top teams (G.Mason), and could be the difference between a #14/#15 seed and a more winnable 4/13 game.

VCU on the other hand faces a much more difficult conference slate and has slipped outside of strong at-large contender range.  A loss tonight would be a brutal blow to any at-large hopes the Rams might be harboring.  Their win over UCLA was decent, but there is little else to write home about.  They have the most athletic team in the CAA and could be a dangerous #11/#12 seed come March if they can right the ship, starting with tonight.

9:05 PM -- Hawaii (9-3)  @ Utah State (11-2)
WAC play gets off to a blazing start tonight as the two top teams face off in Orem.   Hawaii played surprisingly well in the Honolulu Christmas tournament, knocking off Utah and Mississippi State to claim the consolation bracket.  The losses to Florida State and BYU were disspointing in margin, but not "bad losses" per se.  The loss to Cal Poly would be a crippler if they find themselves in the 22-23 win range and contending for an at-large birth.

Utah State finds themselves in an all-too-familiar position; great record with little in terms of quality wins.  Their losses, by 6 to BYU and at Georgetown won't hurt their profile.  Beating Hawaii not only gives them a Top 100 win, it also gets them the early leg up in the WAC standings.

9:35 PM -- Air Force (8-3) @ UTEP (10-3)
Air Force is a middle of the pack team in their league, but given the sterling performance of the MWC thus far this season, being a middle-of-the packer is actually a compliment.  One could say nearly the identical thing about UTEP.  It's unlikely either of these teams make the NCAA Tournament, but both are solid NIT contenders.  Tonight's game gives a nice comparison opportunity for the Mountain West and Conference USA.
 
11:00 PM -- St.Mary's (10-2) vs. Mississippi State (8-5): Game played in Las Vegas.
St Mary's is two years removed from Patty Mills and one year past Omar Samhan.  Despite losing two of the best players in school history, St. Mary's is right in the mix to return to the NCAA Tourney for the second straight year and appear to be poised to snap Gonzaga's decade long stanglehold on the WCC's regular season championship.  St. Mary's defeated St John's early in the year, and their only two losses are to BYU and San Diego State, both Top 25 teams.  They are in need of a Big 6 conference win to add to their otherwise bleak resume or could find themselves in the same situation as 2009; great record offset by a weak schedule resulting in a disappointing trip to the NIT.

God only knows what is going on at Mississippi State.  Eligibility suspensions, fist fights on the bench and a fistful of questionable losses including Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee.  At 8-5 the Bulldogs have likely played themselves into a deep hole to earn at at-large bid, though in a weak SEC-West they could pick up 10 or 11 wins.  A win tonight, a decent conference run and all of a sudden you are looking at a 20 or 21 win team in a Power Six conference, generally a recipe for dancing...

Maniac's Picks:  
Furman +13
Dayton -1.5
VCU -6.5
Hawaii +20.5
Air Force +14

Quick Picks - Feb 9th

It's a real good night on ESPN, nearly every game is an interesting and relativly meaningful one.

In the early game, I really like the way Vanderbilt is coming together and love their home court edge.  A win tonight gives them a stranglehold on second place in the SEC East and puts them a home-win over Kentucky away from making a heckuva case for a #3 seed in March.  Plus the loss to UGA over the weekend has to leave a bad taste in the mouth.  Gimme the 'Dores -3.

It's been a tough week for Oklahoma hoops with the off the court troubles following the surprising Texas win.  I'm not really sure how a team that has played as poorly as the Sooners is laying 6.5 to Texas Tech.  Give me the Red Raiders and the points.

Repeat after me, "no one wins in the Kohl Center."  I think I have finally learned my lesson.  Wisconsin's ability to hold serve at home, along with the Kalin Lucas injury and Evan Turner's rapid recovery have made for a real interesting stretch run to the Big Ten championship.  Give me the Badgers in a romp, sparking the beginning of the Illini's NIT-slide.

In the Big Ten clash tonight, I haven't seen definitively if Kalin Lucas is a go or not.  Obviously without him the Spartans are a much different team.  Purdue's ability to defend ball screens and pressure the ball without having to double is tough to play against at full strength; if you are missing your reigning Big Ten POY it is darn near impossible.  Give me the Boilers +3 tonight at the Breslin Center.  Purdue can force a four-way tie atop the Big Ten with a win tonight (Either Illinois or likely Wisconsin being the fourth, along with Ohio State).

MANIAC'S PICKS: 

Vandy -3
Mason +4
TX Tech +6.5
Purdue +3
Wisconsin -9.5

Colonial's Quest for Multiple Bids

There are some real gems this week outside of the traditional "rivalries" or Rivalry Week.  (ya' know, even more classic matchups that that ol' Villanova v. West Virginia grudge match...). 

All year long we have projected multiple bids for the delightfully entertaining and underrated Colonial League.  Tonight's ESPN-U tilt between VCU and George Mason will have some impact on that possibility.  Mason has been great in conference play (until their recent 2-game slide), and has some name recognition hangover from their epic 2006 tourney run.  VCU is in fourth place in the league, and this is a problem.  Aside from VCU (and William & Mary, whose in-league play eliminate them from the discussion) only Old Dominion has the non-conference resume to merit at-large consideration.  But with Northeastern, Drexel and Mason lurking towards the top of the standings, it gets tougher to make the case for the VCU Rams.

Tonight's game is an absolute must-win for VCU's at-large chances.  In some quiet, near-silent corner I imagine CAA brass are rooting for the Rams as well tonight.  it's the league's best chance for two at-large contenders.

Want to know who is definitely NOT rooting for the Rams?   Clemson, Northwestern, Minnesota, Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, South Florida, et. all.  This game has far reaching bubble implications.

If you want a high-level, well-played game to tune into tonight before Purdue v. Michigan State, flip over to ESPN-U and enjoy.


Maniac's Pick:  George Mason + 4

Bracket Busters 2010

A big thanks to eyeonsportsmedia.com for updating this year's Bracket Buster field.

For those not familiar with the event, 22 teams from Mid-Major conferences are paired up for 11 nationally televised games on ESPN.  It is thought to give programs a chance to gain some national exposure and rack up one more quality win with which to dangle in front of the selection committee.  In my humble opinion, it often backfires by showing a borderline team to be inadequate, and thus NIT-fodder.  But alas, here is this year's field.. Check a seperate column closer to the games for my intrepid picks (and of course who is IN and OUT for March)

Old Dominion (17-5, 9-2 CAA) at #22 Northern Iowa (19-2, 10-1 MVC)
        February 19, 2010, 7:00 PM ESPN2

William & Mary (15-7, 6-4 CAA) at Iona (16-5, 8-3 MAAC)
        February 19, 2010, 9:00 PM ESPNU

Siena (19-4, 12-0 MAAC) at #15 Butler (18-4, 11-0 Horizon)
        February 20, 2010, 11:00 AM ESPN2

Lousiana Tech (18-4, 6-2 WAC) at Northeastern 14-8, 9-2 CAA)
       February 20, 2010, 1:00 PM ESPN2

Morgan State (15-7, 7-0 MEAC) at Murray State (20-3, 11-0 Ohio Valley)
       February 20, 2010, Noon ESPNU

Nevada (13-8, 5-3 WAC) at Missouri State (15-7 5-6 MVC)
       February 20, 2010, 1:00 PM ESPN2

Akron (13-8, 5-3 Mid-American) at VCU (15-7 5-6 CAA)

       February 20, 2010, 4:00 PM ESPNU

Charleston (14-8, 9-2 Southern) at George Mason (15-7, 10-1 CAA)

       February 20, 2010, 8:00 PM ESPN2

Western Carolina (17-5, 7-3 Southern) at Kent State (14-7 5-2 Mid-American)

       February 20, 2010, 8:00 PM ESPNU

New Mexico State (13-8, 6-2 WAC) at  Pacific (14-6, 7-1 Big West)
       February 20, 2010, TBD
 

Wichita State (19-4, 8-3 MVC) at Utah State (16-6, 6-2 WAC)
       February 20, 2010, TBD

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Tuesday's Quick Picks - January 19th, 2010

We have a nice bevy of quality games tonight.  Tennessee, America's new darling team, faces a tricky road trip trap game in Tuscaloosa.  The Tide have given Purdue and Vandy fits in their gym and also beaten Michigan.  I'm making no official pick on this one, but it is worth a watch as Tennessee is creeping into legitimate #1 seed discussions.

Another fantastic conference game is taking place in Atlanta tonight.  I was blown away by the explosive quickness and leaping ability of Gani Lawal, and even more impressed with his strength watching him manhandle Carolina's vaunted interior.  It will be a blast watching him and Clemson's Booker bang all game.  This is another game I wouldn't dare touch in Vegas, but I would wager you are watching two of the three best teams in the ACC face off tonight.

Ok, now for same games I will put my name on:

George Mason, like Creighton and Utah, had miserable pre-conference seasons but still seem capable of spoiling some things once conference play starts.  Hofstra is a tough place to win, and they have been solid in CAA play, but I like the Patriots and the four and a half tonight.

Evan Turner is my National Player of the Year (still), and many readers will be surprised to see where Ohio State lands in tomorrow's Bracketeering.  That said, laying 12 is a lot to a good Northwestern team, fresh off their win over Purdue.  Ohio State wins, but I'll take NW and the 12.

Oklahoma is 2-1 in conference play, and from a distance seems to have steadied the once-promising ship.  From a distance.  This team takes terrible shots and looks like a playground team at times.  The win over Mizzou is a good one, but I'll still lay the seven and take Texas A&M at home.

Surely Purdue can't lose another game in a row, right?  That logic burnt me this weekend at Northwestern, but I'm sticking to my guns tonight when they travel to Champaigne.  I still think the Illini are a bit overrated and a bubble team by the time the season winds down.  If Purdue drops THIS one, it is time to push the panic button in West Lafayette.

In my final pick, let me start by saying Northern Iowa is really good.  In my estimation, they are a tourney lock, and though we've had them higher than the polls all year (who finally ranked the Panthers), deserve their spot in Bracketeering.  However, there is nothing tougher than knocking off a familiar, talented conference rival in their barn.  The Panthers are going to try to do just that tonight at Wichita State.  I like the Shockers laying two, in a good win not only for them, but also for the MVC's hopes of earning more than one bid.

MANIAC'S PICKS:

Northwestern +12

Wichita St. -2

Texas A&M -7

George Mason +4.5

Purdue -4

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Thankfully...It's Early

The Maniac was right on track tabbing 'Nova as overrated, and admits to giving a little too little credit to Jim Laranaga's George Mason Patriots. However, despite the close score of today's game, much like Kansas and Memphis' game earlier this week; it was ugly.

Don't worry coach, we believe you...

Villanova was shooting the bonus by the 12 minute mark in the second half and a whopping four players fouled out. The Wildcats survive into round two thank to the first collegiate field goal from freshman big man Isaiah Armwood after Scottie Reynolds was bottled up into the lane. Coach Wright insists his Cats aren't the sixth best team in the nation, despite the early polls. He'll get no argument here. I'm looking forward to seeing UConn and West Virginia still, but the early showings from Georgetown, Syracuse and Nova have to leave one thinking the BEast might not be quite so mighty this March.

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puerto rico tipoff

This year Puerto Rico has assembled an interesting and deep field, with only George Mason and Boston U. being clearly outclassed, though the Patriots do bring mid-major name cache' to the party.

The best game of the entire 3-day tourney might be the very first to tip as Dayton squares off against what should be a vastly improved Georgia Tech squad. How high are people on the Jackets and freshman standout Derrick Favors? Consider that the Jackets were 13-19 last season, yet enter the game ranked #21 in the country. And for good reason. Add in Gani Lawal and Iman Shumpert and Paul Hewitt might have his best team on campus since 2002.

Dayton is an experience-laden team poised to build on last year's NCAA tournament opening round win. Tabbed as the early season favorite in the A-10, and ranked #18 the Flyers have a chance on (early) national TV to rack up an huge early resume win for the profile.

This is a hard one to pick, but I'll take the Flyers experience over the Jackets promise in an exciting preview of two teams who hope to be playing well into March.

The second game features an interesting Villanova team which should be in mix for the Big East title all year against a down George Mason squad. Look for Villanova to cruise with relative ease.

The 5pm tilt is one that I'm way more excited for than the rankings and RPI's would merit. Ole Miss quietly has one of the best backcourts in the SEC with Warren and Terrico White. IU is in year two of the Tom Crean reclamation project and should make some substantial strides. It may not happen tomorrow, but write it down, Indiana will NOT finish eleventh in the Big Ten this year. I guarantee it.

The night cap gives an early look at Kansas State's Wally Judge who played sparingly in the Wildcats' first two contests. Kansas State has their sights set on improving on last year's NIT appearance. Picking up a few wins in Puerto Rico would go a long way toward that aim.

Games:
11:30 am - Dayton v. GA Tech
2:00 pm - George Mason v. Villanova
5:00 pm - Indiana v Mississippi
7:30 pm - Boston U v. Kansas State

Picks: Dayton, Villanova, Ole Miss and K-State, with Dayton beating Ole Miss in the Final.
(although I wouldn't be stunned if GA Tech beats the Flyers in the opener...)

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Death of the Mid-Major

It is sad to write, but I think a proper eulogy needs to at least be prepared in advance. This March, it might be time to bury our good friend, the Mid-Major.

Cinderella will still have plenty of feet begging for slippers, as the nation's 31 conferences collect their automatic bids. However, they will likely have no company from any fellow conference mates, barring five large upsets in very specific conference tournaments. (the A-10, Horizon, Southern, C-USA and WCC).

For the past decade, momentum has been gathering for the rise of mid-majors, both in births in the tourney and in results. Many theories were bandied about; some seemed legitmatly reasonable. Some experts cited the decrease in scholarship allowances. This prevented teams from stockpiling dozens of blue-chippers on the bench while everyone else had to feed on the leftovers. In theory, this created a larger balanced landscape.

But apparently not this year.

Another theory was the influx of early entrants to the NBA draft. Smaller programs with good, but not one-and-done good players would develop junior and senior laden squads that could go deep in the tourney and wreck havoc.

You know, senior laden teams, like Syracuse 2003, Florida 2006, Ohio State 2007...

Next theory.

The most popular theory was the proliferation of television coverage granting exposure to "non-major" programs. With the multitude of games being broadcast, you no longer had to play at a "Top 20" program to be blasted across the nation's airwaves. This is, again, true in theory, but perhaps herein lies the true reason why thing have instead become so unbalanced in 2009.

This weekend there were roughly 20 games broadcast nationally. Depending upon where you live, you might have had a different selection of games from your FOX Sports carrier, but likely it was Pac-10 or ACC. On ESPN everything is BIG. Like BIG Monday, SUPER Tuesday, etc. "Big" as in Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, Big budget and Big BCS conferences.

There are a ton more games on TV overall, I agree. As a matter of fact, I am surprised when I cannot get a Big 6 conference game of any remote importance on regular cable. Nearly every game that means anything is on. If you wanted to catch Davidson v. Charleston last month? Might I suggest ESPN360. You don't get that? (you are in 90% majority) Bummer.

Outside the Big 6 conferences?? Well, unless your name is Gonzaga or Memphis (or the team offered up to them) your One Shining Moment in the sun will have to wait.

Not that I blame networks one bit. The dial is going to spike for UConn/LVille tonight. I don't think many of you would be DVRing George Mason versus Northeastern. (Maybe you would, you read my drivel, so are obviously a hoops nerd like me - so "you" specifically...bad example. You get the point though...)

It is the same reason the Yankees are on 29 times a year, and the Brewers are invisible. It's just the way it is. That doesn't make anyone wrong. It is just a simple fact.

Another fact is that this year's tourney will likely be devoid of Mid-Majors more than any in recent memory. Long gone is the memory of 2006, when the MVC sent four and the Colonial sent two (as did the A-10, C-USA and Mountain West). It is unlikely this year that any of those conferences other than the A-10 and Mountain West will see multiple bids in 2009. Instead the Big East is tracking for 9, The ACC 7, Big Ten and Big 12 looking like a minimum of 6 each...

The biggest sufferers from the lack of attention are the leagues that are really good, and suffer from, gasp, parity. The same "parity" that was used to hail the rise of the mid-major is the same thing that will cost them 4-5 bids in March.

For example, you will not find a more competitve quality league in the country than the Mountain West. UNLV, BYU, Utah, New Mexico, TCU, San Diego State and Wyoming. None of those seven would embarass themselves in the Big Dance. However, for that same reason you have six team between two and three losses at the top of the league. None of them will get the gaudy 24 or 25 wins you need to perk up voters eyes. UNLV, BYU and Utah have te best shot to dance, as they played slightly stronger schedules and have bigger names. Still, despite wins over Lousiville, Gonzaga and a close loss to Wake Forest, one of those three, along with their remaining conference mates will likely have to aspire to NIT glory.

Ditto for the Missouri Valley. These teams are slugging it out, playing close games and beating each other up every night. Just like in the Big East. Unfortunatly for them, the leader of this slugfest struggled in the pre-conference schedule (N. Iowa). Therefore, the conference is "down." Drake, Creighton, Evansville, Bradley and Northern Iowa will be slugging it out is the conference tourney; likely the winner takes all. The loser? Yup. kNITting it is...

Expect one bid for the MVC.

Perhaps the most interesting of all is the Colonial Conference. Northeastern sits atop the pile, with George Mason and VCU clipping at their heels, one and two losses back respectivly. All three have RPI's between 50-60. Good, but not great. Then again, tough to boost a sagging RPI when no BCS school in their right mind is going to schedule a home and home with you. George Mason missed their chance for a resume win, falling by four at Dayton. VCU got , but missed chances against Rhode Island and Oklahoma. Conference leader Northeastern severly damaged the other two's hopes by getting beaten savagly by Memphis and Michigan and scoring just 37 points in a loss to Big East doormat South Florida.

Not a real compelling case for multiple bids, and a real tough decision for the committee. For the record, George Mason was an at-large qualifier in 2006 after losing the conference championship game to UNC Wilmington.

My take? Only one will dance. Same for an improved, but still clearly inferior C-USA as well.

Again, it is not "good" or "bad" ostensbily. It just makes fo a little less shine and luster on the grandest event in Amrican sports (yes, I know the Super Bowl was yesterday,) the NCAA tournament.

Who is this year's George Mason? Maybe no one...

The best thing about the tourney is that once you are in, anyone can be the Cinderalla.

Once you're in.

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Best Game You Won't See...

9 PM - VCU and Northeastern battle for the conference lead in the Colonial. Quietly, the CAA has become a very solid conference with three teams that might be lingering around the bubble. George Mason boasts the league's top RPI at #52, while VCU and N'eastern are #55 and #60 respectivly. The conference is most famous for the run the George Mason took to the 2006 Final Four (losing to eventual champion Florida), but has had other headline moments in March.

The VCU Rams are no stranger to March Madness. Ask Duke.

Northeastern in all reality needs to win the conference to have any shot to dance, however even a loss tonight doesn't eliminate VCU from at large consideration. Granted their losses to Rhode Island and Delaware won't do them any favors, and New Mexico looms as their "marquee" win, yet they still have a big name player (Eric Maynor) and some goodwill from their upset of Duke in the 2007 #6-#11 Opening round matchup. Those things aren't supposed to matter to the committee, but they never hurt.

The winner of tonight's contest moves to 8-1 in conference, one game ahead of the loser and two ahead of George Mason.

MANIAC'S PICK: VCU by 8.

Tuesday Round Up - Best Games Across the Nation 12/30

There were some great statement wins last night. Georgetown announced its presence with authority in the Big East. Memphis defended their home court against the Bearcats, with tenacity and captured a much needed resume win before C-USA play, and Davidson went to Charleston and beat their stiffest conference foe - putting the SoCon on notice that they could once again run the table.

Tonight, several other teams get a chance to make some noise.

GAME OF THE NIGHT:

7 PM - Illinois @ Purdue

The Illini have been one of the season's pleasant surprises with their 11-1 start. Tonight they get a chance to validate it with an impressive showing at Purdue. The Boilers were ambushed in Mackey by Duke, but are a tough squad to beat in their building. I like the poise and defense of the Boilers tonight.

This place will be rockin' tonight

7 PM UAB @ Butler

UAB got off to a promising start, beating Arizona on the road in the Preseason NIT. Since then, they have backslid a little, losing games to Oklahoma (understandable) and Louisville by 20. Add in loses to BC and Cincinnati, and this is a game they can ill-afford to lose if they have any hope of earning at at-large bid (assuming Memphis wins the C-USA tourney for the umpteenth straight time).

Butler comes in with a lone 3-point loss, at Ohio State, and fresh off a win over Xavier at the Cintas Center. This would be one more feather in the Bulldog's cap come seeding time.

7 PM George Mason @ Dayton

George Mason is the interesting case of a small school exploding so prominently onto the national stage that they begin to become a bit overrated. This is not to say they are not a good team, but just that Dayton is still the prohibitive favorite. This is a huge opportunity for both school, particularly the Patriots, to grab a huge non-conference resume win.

They are good on '08... not THAT good though.

7 PM Clemson @ South Carolina

An in-state skirmish between tow decent ball clubs. Clemson is off to a fantastic start (stop me if you have heard that one before), but better not over look Devan Downey and the Gamecocks. The win over Illinois is a good one. The subsequent win over Miami (FL) was impressive as well. Capture this one tonight, and the Tigers are well positioned for March entering ACC play.

8:05 PM Oklahoma @ Arkansas

Oklahoma has been the most consistent team in the nation (Carolina excluded), and will get a quality test tonight in Fayetteville. Gone are the days of "40 minutes of hell" but the Hogs still get after it on defense. Still, Willie Warren and Blake Griffin might be too much for them to handle.

MANIAC'S PICKS:
UAB +6.5, Oklahoma +6 (LOCK), Dayton -8, Clemson - 2.5, Purdue -6.5

Biggest Bracket Blunders

Biggest Bracket Blunders:

It’s the time of year again when all us hardcore fans are subjected to the unmerciful taunting of the jackass in the adjacent cubicle who hasn’t watched a game all year and just picked based on mascots, and is still a few points up in the pool. It is as unavoidable as a senator getting caught with a hooker (guys – you are rich, powerful, there are a LOT of people who want to see you caught with a hooker!).

So here a few sure-fire blunders to avoid when filling in your brackets this year.

1. Searching for the “Next George Mason”

Look, I get it. Us hardcore junkies would rather come in last that pick the standard 1-1-1-2 Final Four (gotta throw in that one 2 seed to be “edgy”). The simple fact is, the reason the expression came to pass in the first place is that is ALMOST NEVER happens. There are always upsets, but only once in the since 1992 has a non-major conference team advanced to the Final Four. That would be 1 of 64 teams, or about 1.6%.

You could be the one to nail it, but odds are keeping closer to reality is the way to go. If you want to be “edgy” and out there, grab a 4 or 5 seed with a solid nucleus, good coach and solid backcourt play, tough defense and a guy who can score the basketball (see: Vandy, Wisconsin, Pitt)

2. George Mason is NOT the “Next George Mason”

It just isn’t happening this year guys. You aren’t the clever one picking the upset, buck the trend and take the Irish. They are good. Actually the fit the formula from above to the T….hmmm

I know – you wanna take the “shocking” 5-12 upset… just take the Irish.

Speaking of the shocking 5-12 upset…

3. The 5-12 Game is Closer to a Pick-Em Than You Think!

The reason there are so many upsets in the 5-12 game, is because they aren’t really upsets. The true underdogs don’t come into play until the 13 seeds when the at-large teams are exhausted. In your average 5-12 game you are taking a team around 20 in the RPI and pitting them against a team somewhere in the mid-thirties. Add in the fact that the game is on a neutral floor, with tourney one-and-done pressure, and it is a much closer than the 5-12 would indicate… and anything can happen.

4. But Rarely to the True Big Guys


Looking at some of the classic true upsets in the opening round over the past ten years, you will notice an interesting trend. Nearly every one of them was a team that was experiencing a better than expected year, and few had a household-name bonafide star.

Cases in point:

1998: Brice Drew & Valpo in a stunner. The shot sent 4 seed Mississippi home. Major conference, not a perennial power. There are more…

2006: (14) Northwester State over Iowa
2001: Hampton (15) over Iowa St.
2002: UNC Wilmington (13) over USC
2003: Tulsa (13) over Dayton

Name me one player on any of those teams off the top of your head (no – that wasn’t the ISU team with Fizer and Tinsley). Tough to do right? Because big-name programs with big-name stars are rarely the victims…

Except for Kansas…
2005: Bucknell (14) over Kansas
2006: Bradley (13) over Kansas

So – Who are the most likely to fall victim this year? Washington St & Xavier (a tough 14-draw in SEC Champ Georgia) better watch out. However, both dodge the traditional profile, as both played multiple games in last year’s tourney, and return 3 or 4 starters.