Previewing the East Region

East Region

So much for being the #1 overall seed.  Ohio State’s reward for the honor?  Try the bracket most littered with landmines as they attempt to tackle the toughest region in this year’s tournament. 

North Carolina, Syracuse, and Kentucky all enter the tournament playing their best basketball of the season, all boast rosters with NBA talent, and all have the size, quickness, scoring and athleticism needed to make a Final Four run.  Compare those three to the Southeast: Florida (who got hammered by Kentucky in the SEC Final), BYU (whose second best player is suspended and just got hammered by San Diego State in the MWC Final), and Wisconsin who scored THIRTY THREE points in their last game.

Not sure what the committee was thinking with those two brackets.  It certainly leaves a lot of room for conjecture and debate.

What can’t be debated is the depth of talent in the East.  West Virginia is an interesting #5 seed.  They were not spectacular most of the season, and their roster certainly doesn’t leap off the page, but they do own wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Georgetown, Louisville, UConn and Notre Dame.

George Mason could very well be “this year’s George Mason.”  The Patriots are much better overall than the team that made the miracle run back in 2006.  Throw in Xavier, Princeton, Marquette and Washington and you are looking at one ridiculous bracket.

Ten Best Players in the East Region:

Jared Sullinger (Ohio State), Isaiah Thomas (Washington), Harrison Barnes (UNC), Kris Joseph (Syracuse), Tu Holloway (Xavier), Terrance Jones (Kentucky), David Lighty (Ohio State), Tyler Zeller (UNC), William Buford (Ohio State)

First Round Matchups:

#1 Ohio State vs. #16 UT San Antonio/Alabama St.

Next.

#8 George Mason v. #9 Villanova

Villanova is in an absolute free-fall, losers of 11 of their final 16, including a first-round Big East Tourney loss to lowly South Florida.  George Mason would be my tournament darling if not for an unfortunate draw opposite Ohio State.  I love the Patriots getting the win over ‘Nova.

#5 West Virginia  v. #12 UAB/Clemson

I’m honestly stunned UAB is in the field.  Alabama, Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s and Colorado would all have been more worthy selections.  Clemson apparently got just enough late, making it to the Final Four in the ACC Tourney, losing in OT to North Carolina.  I think they used up the remaining gas in their tank – I like UAB advancing, only to get sent home by the Mountaineers.

#4 Kentucky  v. #13 Princeton

This will be another popular upset pick – don’t fall for it.  Remember what happened when the smart, scrappy, underrated Ivy League team (Cornell) met the Wildcats last year?  Yeah, it wasn’t pretty.  Neither will this one.  Wildcats big.

#6 Xavier v #11 Marquette

Xavier always out-performs their seed in the NCAA Tourney.  Marquette is a tough opening draw, but I think Tu Holloway can pace the X-Men to yet another NCAA Tournament win. 

#3 Syracuse v. #14 Indiana State

The Sycamores did a great job knocking off Wichita State and Missouri State en route to the surprising Missouri Valley championship.  However, both of those teams would have given Syracuse a much more entertaining game.  Indiana State has no clue about the length and quickness of the match-up zone that is about to be unleashed on them.  Besides, Larry Bird is out of eligibility.

#7 Washington  v. #10 Georgia

The rumblings over Georgia’s inclusion and overly-high seed will get louder after Washington and Isaiah Thomas run them right off the floor.  It’s honestly hard to justify how the 8-8 Bulldogs got in over the 12-4 Alabama Crimson Tide, who beat Georgia twice, including a blowout win in the SEC Quarters…  Gimme Washington 80-something to Georgia’s low 70’s output.

#2 North Carolina  v. #15 Long Island

 

Long Island is a nice story, but the fairy tale ends quickly against the tremendous size and athleticism of the Tar Heels

Moving Through the Region:

Ohio State will cruise to the Sweet Sixteen, though George Mason will make them earn it.  I like Kentucky avenging last year’s Elite Eight loss to West Virginia, setting up a nice Kentucky-Ohio State rivalry game in the Sweet Sixteen.  In the bottom half, give me Xavier upsetting Syracuse, and North Carolina narrowly dodging Washington in one of the Tourney’s most exhilarating games.

In the Elite 8, Ohio State v. Kentucky will be another classic, but I like Ohio State’s poise and superior perimeter shooting ousting the Wildcats.  Xavier’s run ends at the hands of the ultra-talented Tar Heels, setting up a brilliant regional final.

Ohio State is the best team in the country, in my opinion, and is a tough matchup for the Heels.  Both teams feature outstanding freshman point guards, and it will be a blast to watch Craft and Marshall square off.  Sullinger against the UNC bigs will be spectacular as well.  In the end, I think the defensive brilliance of David Lighty will fluster UNC frosh sensation Harrison Barnes, and that the Heels will lose track of Diebler in transition a few too many times to advance. 

SOUTHEAST CHAMP: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

UPSET PICKS:

Xavier, with Washington being a dangerous sleeper

Oregon Cedes From the Union, First Captures Neighboring Washington

In a bizarre night in Pac-10 hoops, both Oregon and Oregon State pulled off surprising upsets.  The two teams, mired in the bottom dregs of the less-than-fantastic Pac 10 knocked off their neighbors to the North, Washington State and Washington respectively.

While road losses to lesser teams have been happening with stunning frequency over the past two weeks, the Pac-10 teams may not have the same leeway and forgiveness for bad losses that most of their BCS conference brethren enjoy.

For Washington, things are still OK, though their assumed automatic spot in the Field of 68 is becoming less and less secure with each bad conference loss.  For Washington State, the progress gained in their weekend win over their instate rivals was diminshed, if not all together erased by their humiliating 67-43 loss to Oregon.  It was the most lopsided win in five years for the 11-11 (4-6) for the struggling Ducks and likely put a final nail in any slim at-large hopes Washington State still clung too.

Washington State has a weekend trip to Oregon State and visits from Stanford and Cal to try and get back on track.  For Washington, they will attempt to snap their two-game losing streak Saturday at Oregon, then have home visits in reverse order from the two aforementioned squads.
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More Buy & Sell (as Promised)

Back for part two - let's take a look at five more intriguing teams...

Purdue - BUY
Why has no one latched on to the Boilermakers yet?  This is a 14-1 team that returns four starters and two All-American candidates playing opposite positions.  They control the ball and tempo well.  They play cohesively as a team.  The can shoot from the perimeter and defend the interior.  So why no love for the grown-up Baby Boilers?

Because the most heralded of the Baby Boiler class, Robbie Hummel, is losing another season after tearing his ACL in preseason practice.  With Hummel?  I think you are talking about the four elite teams instead of three.  Without him?  This is still a really, really good ballclub and the most legitimate threat to challenge Ohio State for the Big Ten championship. 

I'm buying on the Boilers - the Final Four caliber team everyone forgot.

Missouri - BUY
This is my other Final Four sleeper.  Missouri creates havoc with their insane tempo and ability to give team's Nolan Richardson-esque 40 minutes of hell type ballgames.  Kansas grabs the headlines, and K-State was the preseason darling, but Missouri and Texas are right there with the big boys. 

I wouldn't say they are a Final Four favorite, but with the right draw (i.e. avoid Duke, one of the few teams that matches up ideally with them), I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them playing the season's final weekend.

Syracuse - HOLD
There are five unbeaten teams in the country.  There's a reason everyone talks about a "Big Three."   Syracuse may be great, they may be good, they may be completely average.  It's hard to tell.

The win last week over Notre Dame was a good one, but our feelings on Notre Dame have already been espoused.  Their only other "big" win came over a horribly underachieving Michigan State team that has fallen out of the polls, and at time of writing is in danger of falling to 0-2 in the Big Ten with losses at Penn State and Wisconsin at home...

They are deeper than a year ago, nine or ten players log double-digit minutes most nights.  Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph have done a nice job picking up the scoring deficiencies, but the Orange still lack the dead-eye outside assassin like Andy Rautins provided the past four seasons, and more glaringly - the All-American do-everything swingman Wesley Johnson.

I think the Orange are a Top Four Big East team, but ultimately see them sliding behind Pitt and Villanova before the season ends.

Southern Miss - BUY
Yeah, I know - I've been puffing Southern Miss as my sleeper team for a couple of weeks.  So how did Gary Flowers and Co. repay me?  By lacing 'em up for a 94-64 stinkbomb at Marshall this weekend past.  Thanks a ton.  Tough week for the Golden Eagles, perhaps someone can cheer them up with a text of Farve's wang...

Disappointing loss aside, now's the time to buy.  I still think the Golden Eagles get in the Dance, and have three Conference USA teams getting in this year, the year of the very, very soft bubble and traditional mid-majors slumping.  This Saturday's visit from UCF will tell a lot about each team's mettle.  I'm really looking forward to that game.


Washington - SELL
It's never a good thing for an alleged power conference when, coming off a year of TWO NCAA Tourney teams, the top team in the league is ranked #23 in the country and recently lost their point guard (Abdul Gaddy) for the remainder of the season due to injury.

The saving grace for the Huskies might be the fact that as BAD as the Pac-10 was last year... this year they might be worse.  Yes, some teams have improved; Arizona, Washington St, Stanford - but none of them would be safely "in" if the season ended today.

Washington is by no means a lock to make the tourney, and if they stumble significantly, we could actually be looking at a season where only the conference tourney champ makes the Dance.

Ouch...

Tomorrow - Ten more on the slab - Mid-Major Edition; Memphis, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Xavier, UCF, Richmond, James Madison, Missouri State, Valparaiso, and Utah State.

Games to Watch - Saturday December 11th

For those of you who have the college football "in-between blues," that odd period where teams dangle in limbo for two to five weeks waiting for their bowl games...all of which mean absolutely NOTHING save for one, saddle up for a fantastic day of college hoops that will bring it from noon until well after midnight.


Here's a quick overview of a few games worth catching or at least DVR'ing.

12:00 PM:  UNLV @ Louisville - Both teams are off to flying starts, undefeated and already possessing a few quality wins.  Tomorrow is a great opportunity to find out if Louisville's fast start is an indication they can compete in the loaded Big East and also an opportunity for the left half of the country to get a chance to see a very good UNLV team play.  UNLV has had the Cards number, beating them in each of the past two seasons (Louisville teams that were better, at least on paper, than this year's squad.)

This might actually be the best game of the day, a great way to kick of some hoops watching before lunchtime.  For the UNLV kids, it will be like playing a game at 9AM with the time change.  That's tough to do, and I think they'll come out a little flat and jet lagged.  Give me the Cards laying 3.5

2:30 PM:  Wisconsin @ Marquette - This game has quietly become one of the better rivalry games in the country over the past few seasons.  Both teams have a strong similarity in that it seems every season they are picked somewhere near the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, and sure enough, every year they exceed expectations and head to the Tournament. 

This year looks to be playing out exactly the same way.  Both teams enter at 7-2, with their losses coming against ranked foes and in close games.  Both have a few quality wins under their belt but can desperatly use another one before tackling conference play in the two toughest conferences in the nation.

Marquette will have the valuable home crowd advantage but I have a feeling Wisconsin has a touch more discipline and a little more cohesion and poise at this early juncture in the season.  Gimme the Badgers +1.

3:15 PM:  Tennessee @ Pitt - The Vols have been one of the season's pleasant surprises.  Tomorrow will be one of Pearl's last games on the sidelines before his oddly-arranged SEC-only eight game suspension takes effect.  Both teams are athletic and very physically tough.  I like Pitt at home in a really good ball game but nine points is a lot to lay considering this will likely be a game in the fifties or sixties.  I'll take the Vols and the +9.

4:00 PM:  Kansas State @ Loyola (IL) -  Odd line of the day.  not sure how K-State is laying only 8.5.  Gimme the Wildcats in a 20+ point romp.

4:00 PM:  Dayton @ Old Dominion -  The Flyers are reeling, despite their 7-2 record.  However, this is a talented and experienced club that should turn the corner soon.  Old Dominion continues their aggressive schedule with yet another hopeful tourney team.  I think the Monarchs win at home, but I'll take the Flyers +10.5

4:30 PM:  Washington @ Texas A&M - Texas A&M can land a clear blow for the Big 12 versus the Pac 10 with a win today at home.  Texas A&M is off to a good start at 8-1, however their only win of note came over Temple.  Washington has been carrying the banner as the only ranked team in the Pac 10, but it's hard to put A&M any better than sixth in the loaded Big 12.  I'm not sure if Washington feels any pressure to prop up their sagging conference, but a loss today is actually pretty damaging to league's overall profile.  I'll take Washington on the road, minus one and a half.

5:15 PM:  Indiana @ Kentucky - One of my favorite rivalries takes place today, and though much of the shine has faded over the past decade with neither school managing to be good at coinciding times, it still means a ton to their respective fan bases.  Indiana is in year three of the Tom Crean Era, and call me a hater, but it doesn't seem any real progress has been made.  Meanwhile in the Bluegrass it took Calipari all of half a day to bring the 'Cats from "NIT" to "Final Four" caliber. 

There's still a pretty big hill to climb in Bloomington, and I don't think today will be a step in that direction.  Give me Big Blue laying the thirteen points.

6:00 PM:  Arizona @ BYU - Sean Miller's Cats seem to be on the right track to erasing the memory of last year's rare tourney absence.  It had been nearly thirty years since the Cats were left out, and I'm sure Miller would like to put another thirty years distance in the rear view mirror.  A win today in Provo would go a long way.  I think they'll get it.  Gimme Arizona +2.5

7:00 PM:  Virginia Commonwealth @ Richmond - The sneaky gem in today's bursting schedule is this top-tier matchup between the CAA and the A-10.  Both schools have designs on playing in March, however neither league is notorious for collecting armloads of at-large bids.  Both schools could really use the chip today's win would provide. 

VCU's two losses are quality; Tennessee and to lesser extent, South Florida.  They also boast quality wins over UCLA and Wake Forest.  Richmond's losses are a little less solid; Old Dominion and Iona, however their wins are better; particularly the win over Purdue.

This should be a really good game, likely close, so I'll take VCU +8

8:30 PM:  Gonzaga @ Notre Dame -  The Zags are really struggling, and at 4-4 can ill-afford many more losses if they plan to continue their decade-long NCAA Tournament streak.  Notre Dame was one of the season's early surprises until Kentucky took some of their shine Wednesday night.  The line on this one is huge at 10.5, a number I think reflects a lack of confidence in Gonzaga rather than a ton of faith in the Irish.  I'm not so sure that either is warranted.  Give me Gonzaga and the points, and don't be surprised if they clip them straight up.

Maniac's Picks: Louisville -3.5, Wisconsin +1, Tennessee +9, Kansas State -8.5, Dayton +10.5, Washington -1.5, Kentucky -13, Arizona +2.5, VCU +8, Gonzaga -10.5

Someone's MISSing the Tourney

Not only is it an underrated and fierce rivalry, tonight in Starkville we might be watching a virtual elimination game when Ole Miss travels to Mississippi State.  With the middling play in the SEC West (and odd emergence of Arkansas) it is looking more and more likely that only one team from that half of the conference is going to the Big Dance.

Ole Miss's resume pre-conference is stronger; Mississippi State has already beaten the Rebels on their home floor.  If Ole Miss can't return the favor tonight, they likely find themselves on precarious bubble footing.

On the left coast, if you still have any patience or remote interest at all in Pac10 basketball, you'll get a rare opportunity to watch the best they have to offer tonight on ESPN.  East coast bias?  Heck, they even bumped them up to 9EST for us Easterner's convenience.  Say "thank you ESPN."

Cal (15-8) and Washington (16-7) both entered the season ranked in the Top 15 in the country.  Not to state the obvious, but both have dissapointed immensely.  Washington's non-conference profile isn't quite as brutal as the general Pac10 perception (losses to Tx Tech & G'Town, wins over Portland and Texas A&M).  Cal's isn't terrible either (losses to Ohio State, Syracuse, New Mexico and Kansas, wins over Iowa State and Murray State...ok, not very good resume...).  To be honest, all derision aside, Cal is likely an at-large team if the tourney was tomorrow and Washington really isn't so far gone to at least be in the discussion. 

Both have played better of late, and IF the Pac10 were to sneak in two teams, Washington would have to run the table from here on out.  The problem?  They can't win on the road.  As in, CAN'T WIN on the road.  They are 0-4 in conference play and did not win (or even attempt to more than once!) a single non-conference game away from home either. 

Tonight's game is at Cal...

MANIAC'S PICKS:

Ole Miss +5

Cal -5

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Three Reasons to Stay Up Late

Lest we be accused of an East Coast bias, I wanted to chime in with a quick update on a few games that have significant impact on the tourney landscape taking place out on the left coast.  If you need a reason to stay up until two o'clock tonight, I might be able to help you out.

The Pac-10 is a mess.  We've all heard that story.  It's not an unreasonable one, but it is getting a tad played out, and perhaps even a little overplayed.  Two games tonight can either contribute to the mess or forge two "contenders" for at-large selections (albeit one a bit of a reach)

Cal travels to USC tonight in a game that looked a lot better four weeks ago.  Since USC placed themselves on probation, low and behold, they kids just don't seem to be playing with the same intensity.  I wonder why?  Just because their once promising season has been crushed, along with their dreams of playing in the tourney murdered all because of what their old coach did regarding a player two years removed from the program?  That's no reason not to give the Old U your best effort...

(Picture total non-sequiter - just my running homage' to USC's AD "OJ'ing" the basketball season...)

Sarcasm aside, and my obvious slanted viewpoint, tonight is a big game for Cal.  A road win tonight in LA gets them to 7-3 in the Pac-10.  Despite the perception hit they took early, their overall profile is still in line to ercieve an at large bid if they can avoid another two or three losses.

The other game pits a bit of a role-reversal from how the season was supposed to unfold.  Washington came in to the season as the co-favorite, along with Cal.  It's been a dissapointing season to say the least.  Tonight they get a visit from suddenly-solid Arizona, who is tied atop the league with Cal.  Arizona's record is pretty brutal, but if they could string together four or five wins (just like last year), they would likely find the nation's longest NCAA tourney appearance streak granted another narrow reprieve.

In the WCC, Portland heads to Gonzaga.  Remember Portland?  We loved them.  We didn't love them  We completely forgot they existed.  Well, while we were sleeping the Pilots seemed to find their course.  They are 5-2 in league play, with their only losses coming to the Zags (by 3) and at St. Mary's (by 5).  If they can get a win tonight at the Kennel, admittedly easier said than done, they'd pull even with the Zags and both would trail St. Mary's by just a game in WCC play.  The Pilots chance to dance as an at-large flew away long ago, but a win tonight keeps them in the thick of things for the WCC crown.

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Good Day for the Pac-10

The PAC-10 showed itself well yesterday (UCLA excluded) after a dismal opening month.

USC recorded the conference's first victory over a Top 25 team this year. Read that last sentance again to grasp the rotteness of the conference's opening month. The Trojans hammered Tennessee in what can be considered the first real "surprise" or "upset" of the season, despite about 20 headlines for games that didn't merit it. (Examples: Wisconsin's home win over Duke, Portland beating a terrible UCLA team, Kansas State over UNLV (the most ridiculous of the list, K. State is better for crying out loud).

Then Washington absolutly eviscerated the Portland Pilots. The game was on long after most east coasters drifted to bed, but if you stayed up for the first eight minutes, you saw all you needed. The Huskies led by 20 in the first half, 30 early in the second half and cruised to a 36 point win that was never competitive.

It's a small step, but a much needed one as the Pac-10 tries to earn some validity before they begin playing one another for the remainder of the season.

A big day for the Trojans and the Pac-10

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Many Roads...

Arizona put up 104 point in their dire straits win of Washington. Minnesota got a huge Big 10 win holding Illinois to 36 points. The difference? 68 points.

The result? One team keeps their season alive, the other is getting close to locking up their first tourney bid in several years.

- I am sure I am not the only one TiVoing the Zags/Gaels game tonight. Should be a great one. I'll take Gonzaga flexing their WCC muscle tonight, but keep an eye on Patty Mills. Had a chance to see him live in December; heckuva ballplayer.

Stomp to the Heart

None of their current players have ever been alive in a year in which Arizona was NOT a participant in the NCAA Tournament.

Of course, all that could change in a most unpleasant way for their roster if things don't turn around in a hurry. The Maniac thinks they just might.

I am sure you have all seen the Chase Budinger face-stomp recipient "highlight" by now. It has been played roughly four hundred thousand times on ESPN. What has been less discussed is the furious rally Arizona put together to improbably force overtime, then allow just two points in the OT defeating a pretty good Houston team.



Tonight the Wildcats (12-8, 2-5) host Pac-10 leader Washington in what amount to a last stand for Arizona. Drop this, and it is most likely curtains on the Wildcats season. But win, and things get interesting. After tonight their next three games are: hosting Washington State, then traveling to both Oregon schools. All three are very winnable games. That would leave Arizona at 16-8 and 6-5 in conference and RIGHT in the at-large bid mix.

Of course, it all starts with a win tonight. Can they play with the passion and fury they mustered when their star was stomped on? Can they harness that same desperation for a moment when it is truly warranted?

I like the 'Cats and their two NBA-first rounders salvaging a disappointing season with an upset win over the Huskies tonight.

MANIACS PICK: Arizona 74 - Washington 67

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Show-Me Games of the Week

These games will give us some separation at the top and upper-echelon of some tough conferences.

Tuesday:

Ohio St @ Illinois - Both teams enter in the 20-30 range in most polls and 3-2 in Big Ten play. I think both teams will Dance, but this game could loom large when their resumes go side-by-side.

Wednesday:

Villanova @ UConn - Nova is 2-2 in conference with a trip to UConn looming. Villanova sits on the precarious spot of being the "ninth" team in the nation's deepest and biggest conference. No conference has ever gotten nine bids in March. I wouldn't want to be the one hoping that UNLV or Crieghton or George Mason haven't captured the committee's wandering Cinderella eyes...

Clemson @ UNC -Fifty three times... wow. I am sure you have heard/read the stat many times by now. Clemson brings one of their better teams into Chapel Hill... and still leaves with number fifty four.

Arizona St. @ Arizona - Mayday! Mayday! The Cats are in real trouble. At 2-4 in Pac-10 play and 11-7 overall, it is going to take somelike a win over in-state rival ASU to revitalize a moribund season and keep the nation's longest active NCAA Tourney appearance streak alive.


Thursday:

Minnesota @ Purdue - The conference's best surprise meets the conference's biggest dissapointment. Funny, both have 2 conference losses. The winner take a big step forward in the race to chase Michigan State for the conference crown.

Saturday:

Memphis @ Tennessee - This year lacks the zip of last year's #1 vs #2 Holy War, but still packs some importance. Memphis has one last chance to pick up a resume builder before fattening up on C-USA fluff. Tennessee gets a chance to pick up a much needed non-conference win for the much-maligned, but perhaps just late blooming, SEC.

UCLA @ Washington - The Huskies might be the biggest sleeper in the country, with NBA-quality big man John Brockton and a 4-1 conference record. The winner moves into first place in the Pac-10.

Xavier @ LSU - same drill as the above Memphis v. Tennessee analysis. LSU needs the win a little more desperatly, as their resume is blank and their early SEC play hasn't been good. Xavier can ill-afford another slip-up if they have aspirations of holding a Top 4 seed in March.