Firday's Bracket Buster Games - Maniac's Picks

OK, couldn't get anything to work underneath that stupid graphic, so the picks are here in a new post.

Tonight's first game might be the best overall basketball game of the event.  Most people are going to sell you Butler and Siena, because you remember the names from tourney's past.  But the two teams outside of the big leagues aside from Butler and Gonzaga that people haven't seen play that can WIN a game or two in the tourney take stage tonight.

Old Dominion has gone on the road and beaten some big boys already, namely knocking off Georgetown back in December when they were undefeated.  The are 13-3 in a good and balanced Colonial league and in my opinion should be a lock for the tourney.  That said, they are not a lock for the tourney.  Going to Cedar Rapids and beating the ranked Panthers tonight would be huge.

Northern Iowa is on pretty safe footing, having already sewn up the Valley regualr season title and sweeping Wichita State.  The loss last week to Bradley probably knocks them off the 4-5 lines and leaves them hoping for a six and expecting a seven or and eight.  Tonight's win probably keeps them safely in the 6-7 range, so seeding wise, a big game for UNI.

In the late game, William & Mary looked dead a few weeks ago at 8-5 and in fifth place in the CAA.  However, they have run off three in a row to get to 18-7, (11-5) and still own those road wins over Wake and Maryland.  Are they alive for an at-large?  Barely, and admitedly need some good things to happen around them.  Lose tonight and that slim sliver of hope gets solely pinned on the CAA tourney.  Who wins that one is anyone's guess, as the league is deep and balanced (George Mason, Northeastern and VCU also lurk in the mix).

Iona has no shot at an at-large, and here-in lies my gripe with the whole "Bracketbuster" notion.  What does W&M have to gain tonight?  It's nice to play on TV (I'm sure it will pull in huge numbers at 9pm on a Friday night opposite the Olympics and people who have a LIFE on Friday night - Maniac, um, not included....).  Other than that, they have way more to lose than gain.  Sadly, that is the case for a lot of teams in this field (like Siena, Murray State and a few others who gain nothing from the win but are hurt badly by a loss).

On to tonight's picks.  I'm sticking with my favorite conference.  Not just because I am becoming a CAA honk, but because I believe they really do play very good basketball night in and night out.  It is unfortunate that the two teams in that league who need the BB win the most go on the road, but I'm not letting that deter me.

Maniac's Picks:

Old Dominion +3

William & Mary +4

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Three Against the Wall

We are starting to get to the time of the season where we truly have enormous games, games where the losers back themselves into a corner where they pretty much have to win their conference tourney in order to make the Dance.  Three games on tonight's slate jump out to me.

In the Colonial, two teams that looked like at-large candidates two months ago find themselves at a crossroad.  William & Mary, admittedly the Maniac's darling team this season, knocked off Wake and Maryland on the road (something, coincidentally NO ACC team has done this season) and looked to be well poised to capture an at-large bid if necessary.  Old Dominion, along with VCU, captured enough momentum and quality wins pre-conference that it looked likely that at least one of them would make the field as well, possibly even making the CAA a three-bid league for the first time since the historic 2006 season.

Then conference play began, and things got a little messy.  ODU has fared well, sitting at 9-2 in league.  However, they still trail George Mason and Northeastern (both of whom did not fare well pre-conference).  William & Mary is in even a tougher spot, as they sit 7-4, tied for fifth place in the league with VCU (and behind Drexel).  The loser of tonight's contest, especially if it is W&M, will be forced to win the league tourney to get in.  The game is tonight at 7pm at Old Dominion.

Another mid-major do-or-die game features a team long so successful it feels odd to classify them as a mid-major.  Memphis is on the outside looking in as of today and is going to need to stack up some quality wins in a hurry to make the field.  They get their first chance tonight at 8pm when conference leading UAB visits the Pyramid.  Gonzaga follows them into town on Saturday. After Memphis's surprising 70-60 loss to SMU, it is fair to say they need to win both to have a good chance to capture an at-large bid.  Conference USA gets real interesting if Memphis wins tonight, as UTEP and Tulsa have both only dropped one conference game as well.  There is no way C-USA gets four bids.  I think three might be a stretch too.  Tonight is a must for Memphis.

A final mid-major delight features the two best teams in the always competitive Missouri Valley.  Wichita State was able to do something only one other team this season has last month; knock off Northern Iowa.  Tonight the Panthers get their chance to even the score when the Shockers come to the McLeod Center (8:05 EST).  For Northern Iowa, even a loss tonight, provided they suffer no other setbacks, will not prevent them from getting in the tourney.  A loss for Wichita State might.  They suffered only only one non-conference loss (to Pitt), but they have next to no quality wins to speak of either.  Their best win is Texas Tech.  After that it's just Iowa, Cleveland State...and it gets worse from there.  I am not sure the Valley is strong enough to earn an at-large bid for a team with four conference losses, which is what the Shockers will be if they drop tonight's game.  It is a must win for Wichita State.

Three games to watch, though they might be hard to watch (unless you have Dish or Direct TV).  Enjoy 'em if you can.

Maniac's Picks:

William & Mary +12

UAB +7.5

Wichita State +6

(I like all three with the points, but think only Memphis gets the must-win they need)

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Bracket Busters 2010

A big thanks to eyeonsportsmedia.com for updating this year's Bracket Buster field.

For those not familiar with the event, 22 teams from Mid-Major conferences are paired up for 11 nationally televised games on ESPN.  It is thought to give programs a chance to gain some national exposure and rack up one more quality win with which to dangle in front of the selection committee.  In my humble opinion, it often backfires by showing a borderline team to be inadequate, and thus NIT-fodder.  But alas, here is this year's field.. Check a seperate column closer to the games for my intrepid picks (and of course who is IN and OUT for March)

Old Dominion (17-5, 9-2 CAA) at #22 Northern Iowa (19-2, 10-1 MVC)
        February 19, 2010, 7:00 PM ESPN2

William & Mary (15-7, 6-4 CAA) at Iona (16-5, 8-3 MAAC)
        February 19, 2010, 9:00 PM ESPNU

Siena (19-4, 12-0 MAAC) at #15 Butler (18-4, 11-0 Horizon)
        February 20, 2010, 11:00 AM ESPN2

Lousiana Tech (18-4, 6-2 WAC) at Northeastern 14-8, 9-2 CAA)
       February 20, 2010, 1:00 PM ESPN2

Morgan State (15-7, 7-0 MEAC) at Murray State (20-3, 11-0 Ohio Valley)
       February 20, 2010, Noon ESPNU

Nevada (13-8, 5-3 WAC) at Missouri State (15-7 5-6 MVC)
       February 20, 2010, 1:00 PM ESPN2

Akron (13-8, 5-3 Mid-American) at VCU (15-7 5-6 CAA)

       February 20, 2010, 4:00 PM ESPNU

Charleston (14-8, 9-2 Southern) at George Mason (15-7, 10-1 CAA)

       February 20, 2010, 8:00 PM ESPN2

Western Carolina (17-5, 7-3 Southern) at Kent State (14-7 5-2 Mid-American)

       February 20, 2010, 8:00 PM ESPNU

New Mexico State (13-8, 6-2 WAC) at  Pacific (14-6, 7-1 Big West)
       February 20, 2010, TBD
 

Wichita State (19-4, 8-3 MVC) at Utah State (16-6, 6-2 WAC)
       February 20, 2010, TBD

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The Curse of the Maniac Part I (of many)

We finally got someone this year. The dreaded hex, unavoidable once MM.com starts to glam onto a mid-major darling, they are nearly guaranteed to get knocked down a peg.

Tonight's victim, our beloved Tribe of William & Mary took their first bad loss of the year, getting beat 62-61 by North Carolina Wilmington. The Tribe gave up a tip-in with 3.4 seconds to play to fall to 10-3 (2-1).

The Seahawks were fresh off a 34-point pasting by other MM.com fave, VCU.

Speaking of VCU, they fell to 1-2 in conference tonight, losing to Northeastern.

The CAA is a good league, but they are in danger of falling prey to classic Missouri Valley-eqsue cannibalism, where so many good teams mixed in with lesser teams who know each other well and always play tough at home. This of course leads to the worst thing for a mid-major seeking multiple bids to the Big Dance; parity.

UP NEXT:
Wednesday: W&M @ Deleware; VCU @ Drexel; Georgia St @ UNC-W

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The Will to Win

Great game today in the CAA. The Tribe of William & Mary reeled off their tenth straight win today in thrilling fashion. They took their first lead of the ballgame 48-47 on a three point play with 13 seconds left. Hofstra came down and got off a contested three point attempt with three seconds remaining that missed. The Pride grabbed the offensive rebound and appeared to have drawn contact on the put back attempt, but the referees ruled it came after the final buzzer sounded.

The refs pronounced the game over and retreated to the locker room, all the while pursuited by Hofstra coach Tom Pecora. Alas, the game was over and the Tribe move to 2-0 in the CAA, while Hofstra falls to 1-1.

It might not be as glamorous as their win three nights ago at Maryland, but it is a big road conference win for a team not accustomed to the spotlight. The probably won't be ranked on Monday, but should get enough votes to be within shouting distance.

Elsewhere in the conference, George Mason showed a pulse, thrashing red-hot Old Dominion 71-55. This is one of five potential multi-bid conferences outside the BCS worth watching this season.

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Welcome to 2010 Baby

New Year. New Decade. And an incredible slate of college hoops to start it off right. This weekend will give hoops fans an opportunity to most of the nation's best teams (except Texas, who did it last week) get tested.

The game of the day features more than just great hoops. It features the greatest intensifier of all; good old fashioned hate. Rick Pitino visits his old stompin' grounds of hallowed Rupp Arena tomorrow in a position his Cards haven't been in for several years; trying to spring the upset on the heavily favored 'Cats. To add even a little more spice to the day, Calipari was recently the target of some rather pointed criticism by Bobby Knight, while Rick Pitino's offseason read like a John Grisham novel. In fact, it prompted one of the best shirts I've ever seen; sported by a Card fan it read simply "at least our coach only cheats OFF the court." Twisted, but inspired to say the least...

Yes Rick, all eyes on you indeed...

Gotta love the passion down in the Bluegrass. Kentucky is favored by 8, and despite the margin it will be the best test of tournament-style intensity the Cats have faced this year. Carolina and UCONN were great wins, but the volume and magnitude of this game is a great introduction to the passion of March for freshman Bledsoe, Cousins and Wall. Should the Cats survive the Cards and a Jan 12th trip to Gainesville, expect the "undefeated" talk to really ratchet up a notch...

Kansas plays their first real game of the year and gets a chance to finally shut The Maniac up about their soft road thus far. The Jayhawks travel to Philly to face red-hot Temple (5:30 EST) and their tempo-controlling style. The 'Hawks have more talent, but how will they handle their first true test outside of the Phogg? If the Owls can pull one of the first legit "upsets" of this young season (sidenote: Saw a headline on a major sports site, claiming "Bearcats STUN #10 UConn at the buzzer" Holy hyperbole Batman!) they can start looking at a Top 10 ranking and begin thinking Top 4 seed in March...

UConn and Syracuse have quality ballgames, though it might constitute an "off game" by brutal Big East standards. Both play at home, hosting Notre Dame and Pitt respectivly. Meanwhile Villanova takes a tricky trip to Marquette, who will be trying to regroup after gagging one up in West Virginia earler this week. Every day is a good day in the Big East. Don't be surprised if one, or all, of these games is closer than expected.

UAB has an interesting trip to Arkansas Saturday. Should the Hogs beat them, the Blazers will have dropped back-to-backers to UVA and Arkansas; two of the bottom teams in the BCS conferences. That wouldn't bode particularly well for Conference USA, especially after Houston lost to Texas-San Antonio tonight at home.

Big Ten play continues as well after an already-eventful start when Michigan State heads to Northwestern. Should Northwestern fall, they can kiss their brief time in the Top 25 goodbye...and also might begin to worry about their tourney prospects with their schedule not relenting anytime soon (and an 0-2 Big Ten start).

Tomorrow also features a real bevy of late, quality, non-conference tilts. Baylor at South Carolina is a nice matchup of bubble-caliber teams from good, multi-bid leagues. Gonzaga at Illinois is yet another stiff test for the Zags. They looked great last night hammering Oklahoma, but will they have enough gas in the tank against an Illini squad that can ill-afford another setback?

Oklahoma State takes a daring trip to Rhode Island tomorrow evening. Kudos to the Cowboys for playing a game like this against a smaller-name, very solid A-10 team. The A-10 has quite a day lined up with some Big Six foes. Charlotte will be hosting ACC Georgia Tech to round out the trifecta. It will be interesting to see how all three handle the opportunity.

I,m not sure if any cable outlet in America will be providing the 4pm game between William & Mary and Hofstra, but at this point I feel obligated to keep you updated on the Tribe. They are seeking to follow up their Maryland road win with another tough, albeit less glamorous, road win. This is a classic trap game, with Hofstra not expected to be among the CAA elite, but the kind of game you need to win if you want to be a serious at-large contender. By the way, not sure it means much right now (and of course it will drop as conference play lowers their strength of schedule) but W&M is 6th in the RPI as the calendar flips to 2010. Just thought you'd like to know.

Home of the nation's #6 team?? It's pretty early to look at RPI's...but still worth taking notice

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