Stock Up, Stock Down - Updating the VERY Fluid Bubble Picture

Selection Sunday is barely three weeks away and the scramble for position is starting to heat up.  Here's a quick recap of who helped their cause in the last five days and who is beginning to teeter.

STOCK UP:

Kansas State - The Wildcats saved their season Monday night with a convincing win over #1 Kansas.  Kudos to Jimmy Dykes of ESPN, who before the game said that if State had any chance of pulling the upset, senior Jacob Pullen needed to have a "Jimmer Fredette game." 

Pullen did just that, scoring a career-high 37 points.  The win resurects the Wildcats tourney life...for now.  Those two losses to Colorado are still a tough hurdle to overcome, particualrly if the Buffaloes can finish strong.

Boston College - I'm still not sold on the Eagles tourney worthiness, but their 76-72 win over Maryland moves them into much better position in the down ACC.

North Carolina - The Tarheels are still a Top 4 seed in the Maniac's book.  Their road win at Clemson all but assured them second place in the ACC, and put the final nail in Clemson's already weak NCAA chances.

Colorado State - Don't look now, but the Rams are one of the nation's most surprising at-large contenders.  I am not sure if the MWC can pull four bids, so it is imperative they keep pace with UNLV these last three weeks.  Saturday's win over New Mexico was enormous for CSU, and the final nail in Coach Alford's New Mexico Lobos' coffin.

The Rams still control their own destiny.  The host UNLV, and travel to BYU and San Diego State in three of their final five games.  Take two of those three and avoid any slip-ups and the Rams are in.  Easier said than done, but if you would have told and CSU fans the previous scenario back in November, I assure you they'd have taken it with a huge grin.

Temple - The Owls went on the road and hammered Dayton.  The Owls are all but a lock at this point, and have a shot at creeping as high as a #5 or #6 if they finish strong (which they seem to do every year).

Florida - We wrote about the Florida v. Tennessee game at length, so no need to rehash the ugliness.  But for Billy D, the Gators are nearing lock status.  With a stong finish they could creep as high as a #4, however with a tailspin they could slide all the way down to the #9-#10 range.

Memphis - Back to back wins over Southern Miss and UAB (Sat & Wed) all but clinch the Tigers as a tourney team in the Maniac's book.

St. John's - Lavin and the Johnnies got a huge win, 59-57 at Cincinnati Sunday.  ESPN has them as a #7 currently.  The followed up the win with a 80-68 win over Marquette - a huge win made even bigger by how much it damaged their fellow Big East bubble denizen's chances  We still have them holding in the #9 range - but definitely a tourney team barring a late collapse. 

Cincinnati - Yes, they lost in the aforementioned game, but the Wednesday pasting of Louisville moves the Bearcats into really good position to capture a well-deserved tenth bid for the Big East.


Virginia Tech - The Hokies are making a late surge towards finally ending up on the right side of the bubble.  Sunday's 102-74 win over Georgia Tech was an impressive offensive display.  Tuesday's pasting of Maryland moves them even closer, and they are beginning to separate them from the ACC bubble pack. 

Butler - The Bulldogs are making a furious rush to get back in the at-large discussion.  They've now won five straight, including wins over Wisc-Milwaukee, Wright State and Cleveland State to climb back to 11-5 in the Horizon League.


STOCK DOWN:

Duquesne - The Dukes tourney hopes took a devestating blow with Saturday's home loss to Xavier.  It isn't so much that the loss is bad more than it was the Dukes one great chance to earn a validating win that slipped through their fingers.  Despite their 11-2 A10 record, they still have only one Top 50 win to their resume (and eight losses).

Southern Miss & UAB - Both fell victim to conference bully Memphis this week; their respective tournament hopes might have fallen victim with the losses.  Neither is dead, but both have a huge road ahead of them, particularly Southern Miss who is nearing "must win the conference tourney" status.

Northern Iowa - Their at-large hopes gasped their last breath Saturday in their 18-point home loss to Wichita State.  The Shockers are looking good for March; the Panther will need to pull a shocker if they hope to Dance again this year.

UNLV - The Reb's missed a golden opportunity Saturday, losing 63-57 at home to San Diego State.  UNLV needs to finish strong to earn a third bid for the MWC (and hold off Colorado State).

Georgia - The Bulldogs Wednesday night loss to Vandy was a damaging one.  Georgia falls to 6-5 in the SEC and just 17-8 overall.  It's fair to say they MUST win one of their next two games; at Tennessee and at Florida to stay in the tourney picture.

Saturday Selections - The Maniac is Back

We've taken a hiatus from the prognosticating of late, but today Maniac is back with screaming vengeance and long slate of winners.  For the record, entering today we're sitting at 21-12-1 against the spread for the season.  That's throwin' darts my friends...


Missouri +5.5 @ Texas A&M
The Aggies have one of the best records in the country, but are seriously devoid of many quality wins worth boasting about.  They are going to have their hands full with the pressure and relentless scoring attack of the Tigers.  I like Mizzou winning outright in College Station, but love them getting 5.5.

Maryland @ Villanova -5.5
How bad is the ACC really??  Today might give us a nice glimpse when the Terps head over to Philly to meet Villanova.  The Wildcats are the quietest Top 10 team in the country, with their only loss coming in Knoxville on an afternoon where the Vols shot the lights out.  Aside from that, they've been perfect, including wins over Temple, Cincinnati and Louisville.  I think Maryland is one of the top three or four teams in the ACC, behind Duke (obviously), North Carolina and then lumped in that middle group with Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech.  Keeping that sort of company makes a 5-point spread at 'Nova seem way, way too low.  Gimme the Wildcats by double digits.


Georgia +4.5 @ Ole Miss
Georgia has as much talent as any team in the SEC outside of Kentucky.  They lost last week to Vandy, but played decently in the game; Vandy is just really good (and has the best player no one knows about, Jeff Taylor).  Georgia has played a solid schedule and taken a few lumps, but they are starting to become much better for it and are blossoming into an NCAA Tourney caliber team.

The Bulldogs are significantly better than Ole Miss on a neutral floor - so giving them 4.5 on the road seems too generous to pass up.  Gimme UGA in a road win "upset."

UCF @ Southern Miss - 3
Anyone reading this already knows I am an excessively-proud UCF alum.  You also have heard me pumping up Southern Miss and Gary Flowers as on of the true sleeper teams and players in the country and someone to watch in March.  So today - I have to put my money where my mouth is.  I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I will be.  Gimme the Golden Eagles laying three.  I think I just spit up in my mouth a little bit.

San Diego State -1 @ New Mexico
New Mexico was one of the surprise teams last season, riding their fantastic MWC conference play to a gaudy record and a #3 seed in the NCAA Tourney.  San Diego State fits that identical profile this season, though their sights might be set even a little higher; a #1 seed isn't out of reach.  The other difference is Kawhi Leonard, the sophomore forward for the Aztecs, who is a legit NBA first rounder.

The other big factor?  New Mexico isn't very good this year.  Look at their record and their schedule.  A 35 point loss to an abysmal Cal team.  A 66-60 loss to Northern Iowa (also down from last season), and last week a loss at Wyoming.  How are they basically a pick-em with one of the ten best teams in the country? Is their home court advantage truly that formidable?

I don't know either.  Take the Aztecs.  I'll make that my lock of the day.

MANIAC'S PICKS:  SDSU-1 (lock), So Miss -3, Georgia +4.5, 'Nova -5.5, Mizz +5.5

Early Highs & Lows

As the saying goes, You can't win 'em all. Especially when you are the big boy on the block with a big target on your back for most of your non-conference games as smaller schools ramp up for one of the precious few chances to get some national attention.  Every year several mid or low majors jump up and pick off one of the big boys, and just a short week into the season, this year is proving no exception.

Here's a quick rundown of what you might have missed in the opening week; five teams that have underwhelmed and a few more that have impressed.  With about a half-dozen preseason tournaments going on this weekend, this list is sure to grow rapidly.  The Maniac will provide another solid recap on Monday, as well as issuing some "Upset Alerts" for this weekend, so be sure to check back tonight and tomorrow

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Five Underwhelmers:

1.  Boston College - When you lose at home to Yale, you immediately earn the top spot on our ignominious list.  With dates with Texas A&M, Indiana and Providence looming, the Eagles better straighten up and fly right in a hurry or this season could get ugly.

2.  LSU -  It seems like the Tigers seem to find their way into the Maniac's doghouse every Winter.  Usually it's for their dreadful non-conference schedule.  This year, it's for their dreadful schedule AND getting blasted at home by Nichols State.  This Sunday's date with Memphis will be a good indication as to whether it was just a rough night or the start of a rough season.


3.  Wake Forest - Perhaps no team in the country has been hit harder by early NBA entrants than the Deacons.  Kentucky may have lost more players, but at least there it is sort of expected.  It's also far easier to reload in the Bluegrass than it is in the pale shadow of Duke and UNC.  It's an excuse for the Deacons to be down this season.  It's not an excuse for opening with a home loss to Atlantic Sun also-ran Stetson .  Following it up with a 90-69 drubbing, again at home, to Virginia Commonwealth has it looking like Wake could be near the bottom of a down ACC.

4.  Xavier - How does a 2-0 team make this list?  Easy if you have caught any of their first two home games.  The season opened with a comeback three point win over Western Michigan.  Two night ago they needed overtime to tackle the mighty Mastadons of IPFW.  Xavier may not technically be in a "power" conference, however being the only team in the country aside from Michigan State to earn a spot in the last three Sweet Sixteens lends for "power" conference expectations.  Their first two contests didn't meet them.

With one of the nation's toughest non-conference schedules (Wofford, Iowa, Butler, Gonzaga, Georgia, LSU, Cincinnati and Wake Forest - plus possible meetings with either Old Dominion/Clemson or Seton Hall/Alabama) the Muskies better see some improvement quickly or it could be more than their Sweet 16 streak in jeopardy, it could be their tourney appearance streak as well...


5.  South Florida - Last year the Bulls became media darlings of sorts as they made a daring run towards the NCAA Tournament despite being projected 14th or 15th in preseason BEast coaches polls.  The Bulls came up just short, but entered this season with high expectations, despite Dominique James leaving early for the NBA.  With losses to Southern Miss and UCF, the Bulls are not only digging a nearly-impossible to climb out of ditch, they would also be in last place in Conference USA.

And a Few Pleasant Surprises...

*  Gardner Webb - Yes, they got boat raced down in Tallahassee, but the opening win over Charlotte was impressive.  With upcoming dates with Michigan, Oklahoma, Arizona State and Louisville the Bulldogs will get a few more chances to add another profile win.  Don't laugh, one of those wins could be the difference between a #13 and a virtually unwinnable #15 or #16 seed in March.

*  Georgia - Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee enter the season ranked and Vanderbilt is considered a fringe tournament team by most.  However, don't sleep on Georgia in the slightly overrated SEC East.  Their win over Colorado is a better win that it appears at first blush, and the 'Dawgs handled them with relative ease.  A Thanksgiving date with Notre Dame and early December hookups with Georgia Tech and UAB will give the 'Dawgs a chance to build a solid profile before conference play.

*  South Dakota State - 3-0 with a road win at Iowa is an encouraging start for the Jackrabbits (yes, that's really their mascot).  They'll get two more shots; hosting Nevada and visiting Minnesota.  They'll get some stiff competition from Oral Roberts and IUPUI (and possibly Oakland) in the Summit league, but early season BCS-conference wins are what keep low majors off that 15/16 line come March.

*  St Mary's - They've played two non D-1 throwaways, but the 76-71 win over an improved St John's squad could be a nice chip to pile in March.  Omar Samham is gone, but don't make the mistake of overlooking the Gaels.  They'll get their chance on December 1st to do something conference rival Gonzaga could not; beat San Diego State.

*  San Diego State - Speaking of which, the Aztecs might be the best mid-major in the country this season.  Their road win in the Kennel is as impressive a win as a team has notched so far in this young season.  If "best" seems like hyperbole, it isn't.  They have to be considered no worse than co-favorite with BYU to win the Mountain West, and appear to be ahead of Gonzaga, Memphis, Xavier, Butler and the other usual suspects.

And the recap wouldn't be complete without a tip of the beanie to the Yale Bulldogs, despite losses to Quinnipiac and Providence, they were still able to go into Chestnut Hill and pull off the stunner. 

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Tuesday Quick Picks - Jan 5th, 2010

Tough night last night as we went 1-2. Tonight we redeem ourselves with a few winners... hopefully. I always say if you want to make money picking college hoops, do it before Chirstmas before the lines catch up and before conference play. Once conference play kicks off it is like the NFL; everyone can play and recruit on a fairly similar level and the teams know each other really well.

That said, let's get to it.

Rhode Island -1.5 @ Akron - Hopefully we haven't sufficiently curse the Rams yet...otherwise this jumps out at me as the line of the night. Rhode Island is good. Akron isn't. Sometimes picking games really is that simple.

Georgia Tech -5.5 @ Georgia - Yeah, I know it's a rivalry game. That said Georgia Tech is significantly better at nearly every position on the floor tonight. I like the Jackets in what is becoming our dangerous precident of picking road favorites...

New Mexico @ San Diego St +4 - New Mexico, along with BYU is the class of the solid MWC this year. However, the Lobos have played an absolutly draining stretch against quality opponents and have came up big in all of them to get thrust into the national spotlight. I think the constant pressure takes a toll on the road against a similarly NCAA-hopefully Aztec squad. This is by far the best game of the night, even though hardly anyone will see it.

Maniac's Record 30-25-1 ATS

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Best Games You Might Not Be Able to See...

A look at some of the top tilts that may not be broadcast in your neck of the woods. Don't worry - the Maniac has you covered.

Tuesday:

Miami (OH) @ Ohio St - Yes, the Redhawks are 2-3, but their losses are UCLA, Pitt & Xavier. Only the Pitt game wasn;t competitive. Don't be surprised if the 'Hawks get a big-name win Tuesday night.

Georgia @ Western KY - Felton returns home to find a team fresh off a Sweet 16 appearance and a dismantling of #3 Louisville.

Wednesday:

Winthrop @ VMI - VMI has already beaten Kentucky. Winthrop has become kind of "Butler-lite" over the past three years, but is off to a 1-5 start. They need to right the ship quickly to keep their NCAA tourney appearance streak running.

DePaul @ Cal - DePaul is one of the Big East's forgotten sons, lost in the "nine-bid" hype (I heard one ESPN pundit claim 10 is possible. Of course, he is a dipshit...) but the Demons can not afford any missteps pre-conference and keep slim tourney hopes a flutter. Cal is 5-1 and gearing up for a very up-for-grabs middle of the Pac-10 pack.