At 19-13 against the spread, the Maniac is rueing the fact that his dream of living in a Bahamian sports book during the entire NCAA Tournament seems more and more like a good idea. Seriously, someone tell my wife this is way better than a 401(k)...
OK, let's continue onward with Saturday's picks.
St Mary's +5 v. Villanova: This matchup is very, very similar to the Richmond one for the Gaels. Obviously Scottie Reynolds and the Villanova backcourt is a slight upgrade, but the fact remains they have no semblance of an inside presence. I think this bodes well for St. Mary's, who is coincidentally on fire. If they can get some offense from Dellavadova, I like St. Mary's to pull the upset.
Murray St v. Butler -5: It's funny, but I'm not sure Butler caught a break when the Racers toppled Vandy in a round one buzzer-beater. However, I'm going to stick with my "Butler can get to the Final Four" belief and trust they will handle their business today. One odd plus in the Bulldogs favor, they will NOT overlook Murray State. The Racers are very similar to some of the teams the face in the Horizon (very, very similar stylistically to 2008-09 Cleveland State).
Ohio +8 v. Tennessee: I think the Vols win, but Ohio can push tempo enough to get some buckets in transition. It is perversly ironic that Armon Bassett can make a true national name for himself today after being booted off the Indiana Hooisers two years ago for a litany of off-court issues against the team that was the 2010 poster child for off-the-court problems.
Northern Iowa v. Kansas -11.5: Rock CHALK. I like Northern Iowa, but just don't think they have near the quickness, quality size or depth to make the Jayhawks sweat.
Old Dominion v. Baylor -5: I continue to maintain that Baylor is one of the most talented teams in the country and a real Final Four sleeper team. Old Dominion is one of the best defensive teams in the country, however unlike Notre Dame, Baylor has two guards who can create off the bounce, both for themselves and for teammates.
Washington v. New Mexico +2: I'm not willing to go absolute on this, but I have a sneaking suspicion this is the first time a #11 was a Vegas favorite over a #3 in the NCAA Tournament. Someone with more freetime that me can look it up, in the meantime lets just agree it is certainly odd. That said, surely that puts another log on the New Mexico fire. They looked lethargic and avergae Thursday night. I think they play better today and beat Washington in a hard fought game. However much will hinge on whether or not the New Mexico forwards can contain Quincy Pondexter, as they don't have a true natural match for him defensively.
BYU v. Kansas State - 4.5: BYU is a heck of a good basketball team and the Steve Nash comparison for Jimmer Fredette is a good one. However Kansas State is very solid with Clemente and Pullen in the backcourt, and I think their length from the 3 & 4 spot can negate some of BYU's perimeter shooting. BYU will have to shoot exceptionally well to beat the Wildcats, gimme K-State laying the points.
Wake Forest v. Kentucky -9.5: This is a great and interesting test for UK. Wake actually matches up very, very well. Ish Smith might be the only guard in the tourney as quick with the basketball as John Wall. That matchup alone is worth tuning in for. This game also features three LEGIT NBA bigs, in DeMarcus Cousins, Pat Patterson and Farouq Al Aminu. The key to this game? Can McFarland stay out of foul trouble for the Deacons? If not, they are going to be way to thin inside to contain the Cats. I think the Big Blue is peaking at the right time, but I'm not wild about laying 10. Tough pick, but gimme the Cats.
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